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From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties
Subject: McAuliffe banking large lead in early voting
Date: October 22, 2013
A new Public Policy Polling survey of early voters in the Virginia Governor’s race finds
Terry McAuliffe building up a large early lead. He’s at 57% to 39% for Ken Cuccinelli
and 3% for Robert Sarvis among those who have already cast their ballots.
The numbers are a mirror image of the 2009 early voting results. Last time around Bob
McDonnell won them by an 18 point margin over Creigh Deeds, 59/41. This time the 18
point lead is on the Democratic side.
Key findings from the survey include:
-McAuliffe has a wide lead over Cuccinelli among independent voters at 54/37. He also
has his party more unified around him, getting 87% of Democrats compared to
Cuccinelli’s 84% of Republicans.
-McAuliffe’s building a particularly substantial lead with female voters, getting 60% who
have voted so far compared to 36% for Cuccinelli. The early vote numbers also suggest
that McAuliffe is performing far better among white voters than Democrats normally do
in Virginia. He has a 55/41 advantage with those who have already voted.
-There’s been a lot of speculation that Libertarian Robert Sarvis will not end up getting as
much support at the ballot box as he’s been showing in the polls. His 3% standing among
those who have already voted confirms that, but McAuliffe’s large overall lead indicates
that a decline in support for Sarvis doesn’t do much for Cuccinelli’s prospects.
PPP interviewed 724 early voters on October 19th and 20th with a margin of error of +/3.6% on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters.

Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Virginia Survey Results
Q1

Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot, in this
fall’s election for Governor and other state
offices?
Have ...............................................................100%

Q5

Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%

Q6

Have not ......................................................... 0%

Q2

In the election for Governor, did you vote for
Republican Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, or Libertarian Robert Sarvis?

Republican...................................................... 29%
Independent/Other .......................................... 27%

Q7

Robert Sarvis .................................................. 3%

White .............................................................. 78%

Which of the candidates for Governor do you
trust most to address energy issues?

African-American ............................................ 10%

Ken Cuccinelli ................................................ 39%
Terry McAuliffe ................................................ 56%
Robert Sarvis .................................................. 2%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q4

In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 57%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 41%

If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 5%

Undecided....................................................... 1%

Q3

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 44%

Ken Cuccinelli ................................................ 39%
Terry McAuliffe ................................................ 57%

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Other............................................................... 7%

Q8

If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 10%
30 to 45........................................................... 8%
46 to 65........................................................... 39%
Older than 65 .................................................. 43%

Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 2%

October 19-20, 2013
Survey of 724 early voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber
Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber
Most Trusted to
Address Energy

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

6%

86%

7%

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

6%

85%

15%

Terry McAuliffe 57%

Terry McAuliffe 56%

91%

11%

22%

89%

11%

39%

Robert Sarvis

3%

2%

2%

32%

Robert Sarvis

2%

2%

1%

24%

Undecided

1%

1%

0%

39%

Not sure

3%

3%

3%

23%

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Base Wom an

Man

Most Trusted to
Address Energy

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

36%

42%

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

35%

43%

Terry McAuliffe 57%

60%

53%

Terry McAuliffe 56%

61%

50%

Robert Sarvis

3%

2%

3%

Robert Sarvis

2%

2%

2%

Undecided

1%

1%

1%

Not sure

3%

2%

5%

October 19-20, 2013
survey of 724 early voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Most Trusted to
Address Energy

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

11%

84%

37%

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

10%

84%

38%

Terry McAuliffe 57%

87%

13%

54%

Terry McAuliffe 56%

87%

12%

52%

Robert Sarvis

3%

1%

1%

7%

Robert Sarvis

2%

1%

-

5%

Undecided

1%

1%

1%

2%

Not sure

3%

2%

3%

6%

Race

Race

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other
Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other
Most Trusted to
Address Energy

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

51%

41%

16%

40%

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

51%

41%

16%

41%

Terry McAuliffe 57%

49%

55%

78%

49%

Terry McAuliffe 56%

47%

54%

79%

52%

Robert Sarvis

3%

-

3%

3%

5%

Robert Sarvis

2%

3%

2%

2%

5%

Undecided

1%

-

1%

3%

6%

Not sure

3%

-

4%

3%

2%

October 19-20, 2013
survey of 724 early voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Most Trusted to
Address Energy

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

50%

42%

36%

39%

Ken Cuccinelli 39%

50%

42%

36%

39%

Terry McAuliffe 57%

50%

49%

60%

57%

Terry McAuliffe 56%

50%

45%

59%

56%

8%

3%

2%

Robert Sarvis

2%

-

8%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

Not sure

3%

-

6%

3%

4%

Robert Sarvis

3%

-

Undecided

1%

-

October 19-20, 2013
survey of 724 early voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988