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THE SOLAR CONSTANT AND THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH

ANDERS NGSTRM
The Eppley Foundation for Research Abstract. Astronomers and meteorologists now generally agree in the opinion that the so-called solar constant the extraterrestrial solar radiation integrated over all wave lengths is subjected only to very small variations, as far as the short time interval of not quite a century, covered by our observations, is concerned. Not so if we consider time intervals of billions of years. On the basis of what we now know about the sources of energy, which are keeping the sun hot, and of the physical constitution of the sun, F. Hoyle has made a theoretical computation of what will happen to the sun, as regards its output of energy and its dimensions. In 10 million years we get, according to Hoyle, an increase in the solar constant of about 0.2 per cent, but after about 6 billion years the solar constant will be about 3 times its present value. Hoyle draws the conclusion from his theory that the organic life on the earth will not be able to persist more than about 2-3 billion years more, while after that period the temperature will be higher than now by 50'C or more, an evaluation evidently founded on the idea that the present albedo of the earth remains un changed. The present author has started from the idea, at first put forward by Sir George Simpson, that the system earth-atmosphere is functioning as a kind of large-scale thermostatic device, where changes in direct radiation from the sun are largely compensated by an increase in the albedo of the system, resulting from an increase in cloudiness. Applying to this idea his own results as regards the albedo of the turbid atmosphere, and also recent results on the albedo of dense cloud sheets, the author suggests that the critical intensity of solar radiation will occur first after 6 billion years, which gives a lifetime of organic life, which is almost the double of that derived by Hoyle. The discussion suggests that before the critical temperature is reached, the earth can be expected to go through a period of increasing cloudiness and turbidity, ending in a state where the atmosphere remains permanently cloudy. One must finally regret to have to state that there are possible causes of a total destruction of organic life on the earth which are, at present, of much greater actuality than those considered here.

now seems to be a rather eeneral agreement amone astronomers and meteorologists, that the so-called solar constant, the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphereintegrated over all wavelengthsis only subjected to very small variations. as far as the short time interval of not quite a century, covered by our observations, is concerned. The average amplitude of the variations may amount to 0.5 per cent or slightly more, but many prominent scientists are of the firm opinion that it is considerably smaller (ALLEN, 1958).
THERE

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This is not so if we consider time intervals of billions of years. On the basic of what we now know about the sources of energy, which are "keeping the sun hot", and of the physical constitution of the sun, it has been possible to make a theoretical computation of what will happen to the sun, as regards its output of energy, and its dimensions. If we here tentatively follow the

1.0

1
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 AGE (1017 sec)

FIG. 1. Behaviour of the luminosity L and radius R of the Sun in relation to the present values Lo and R0, when the time is expressed in 10" sec. The present age of the Sun according to the diagram is nearly 1.5 r 10" sec, corresponding to 5 Y 10' years. (After F. Hoyle.)

theoretical considerations of F. Hoyle, we may, with him, concentrate the result in Fig. 1, where the changes to be expected in the luminosity L (practically the solar constant) and radius R of the sun, relative to the present values Lo and Ro, are demonstrated by curves (LINDBLAD, 1960). As the thickness of the black fines of the curves corresponds to about 50 million years, it is evident that the long time variation now considered is much too small to have influenced the solar constant values derived from our measurements during less than a century. In 10 million years we get a Hoyle variation which does not amount to more than about 0.2 per cent. Hoyle draws the conclusion from the computations behind the diagram that the organic life on earth will not be able to persist more than about THE SOLAR CONSTANT AND THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH 3

2-3 billion years, while after that period the temperature will be 50C or more higher than now, an evaluation founded upon the reasonable idea that the outgoing terrestrial radiation, which balances the incoming radiation from the sun, is proportional to the fourth power of the mean temperature of the earth. Now this result evidently is derived under the assumption that the albedo of the earth remains constant. There is, however, much which speaks in favour of the hypothesis put forward by Sir GEORGE SIMPSON (1928), namely that the system earth-atmosphere to some extent is function-ing as a kind of largescale thermostatic device, where changes in the direct radiation from the sun are largely compensated for by an increase in the albedo of the earth, which results from an increase in convection, in its turn producing an increase in cloudiness. Now the present albedo of the earth-atmosphere is about 0.40, whereas the albedo of a homogenous layer of moderately thick St -Cu is about 0.70 or slightly more. We may ask: how great can the increase in solar radiation be allowed to be, if we do not permit the temperature to rise more than 25 aboye the present one, but assume the increase in solar radiation to produce an increase in cloudiness up to a maxi-mum, giving an albedo of the earth of 0-70. The question may be answered on the basis of the simple equations: 0.60 /0 = 4oTo4 0.30 I1 = 4114 (1 ) where lo and To are the present values of the solar constant and of effective temperature respectively and /1 and Ti the ones expected. We get, in putting To = 250K; Tl = 275K: Il - = 2 x 1.47 = 2.94 Under the rough approximations made, we find the "critical" solar radia tion to be about three times as large as the present one, a value which it can be expected to reach after slightly more than 6 billion years, according to the Hoyle diagram. Our discussion suggests that before the critical stage of temperature is reached, the earth can be expected to go through a period of increasing cloudi ness, ending in a state where the atmosphere remains permanently cloudy. The conditions would then be similar, in respect to cloudiness, to those now characteristic of the planet Venus. From a dynamic point of view some reasonable objections may perhaps be raised against the idea of an earth totally . covered by clouds. The present average relative cloudiness about 0.52 corresponds very closely to what may be expected, if the clouds were formed within rising air currents and the clear parts were marking the regions where the air was descending. As both

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regions ought to be approximately equal, the present result of our cloud observations seems natural. It is evident, however. that aboye the region where the convective and advective clouds are formed, and where descending and ascending air currents are almost equally represented. there exists a region where cloud sheets are formed through cooling by radiation out to space. An increase of this formation of radiation clouds, with a rising mean temperature of the earth, and a corresponding rise of the wter vapour con-tent of the atmosphere seems highly probable, with due regard to the con-ditions of other planets. There are also other factors to be considered, namely the atmospheric turbidity and its influence upon the albedo of the earth. and also the albedo of the clouds themselves. Under present conditions the cloud-free atmo-sphere plus the surface of the earth give an average albedo of about 0-20. It is evident, however, from quite a number of observations that the turbidity of the atmosphere vares between rather wide limits and that it generaily is higher at higher water vapour content of the air. Now the albedo of the cloud-free atmosphere increases with an increase of turbidity and seems to reach a maximum of about 0.50 for high turbidity values (NGSTRM. 1962). At present the average cloud albedo if a mean value is computed for all kinds of cloud occurring is as low as about 0-45-0-55. It is to be expected, however, that if on account of an increase in convection the cloud formation is intensified, the average global albedo may rise to the value found by Aldrich for rather dense cloud sheets. namely 0-78. If we then, as before. try to make an evaluation of the critica] solar radia tion, but now under the assumption that no change occurs in the average cloud cover, but that turbidity and cloud albedo rise to maximum values, we obtain for computing the present (a) and expected (b) albedo values a and al of the system earth atmosphere: (a) a = 0.20 x 0.48 0.50 x 0.52 = 0.356 (b) al = 0.50 x 0.48 + 0.78 x 0.52 = 0.645 and from equations similar to those given earlier (1):
To

(2)

= 1-81 x 1-47 = 2-65

Introducing this value in the Hoyle diagram we find that this critical value of the solar radiation can be expected to occur first after a time of slightly less than 6 billion years, a value not far from that which we reached under more extreme assumptions concerning the cloud cover. It is already evident from Hoyle's theoretical results that the destruction of organic life on the earth from the effects of an increase of the solar constant can be expected to be a matter very far in the future. One must finally regret

THE SOLAR CONSTANT AND THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH

to have to state, however, that there are possible causes of a total destruction of organic life on the earth which are at present of much greater actuality than those considered here.

REFERENCES ALLEN, C. W. (1958) Solar radiation. Quart. Jour. R. Meteor. Soc. 84 (362), 307-318. NGSTRM, ANDERS (1962) Atmospheric turbidity, global illumination and planetary albedo of the earth. Te/los, 14 (4), 435-450. LINDBLAD, B. (1960) Kosmologiska problem i samtidens forskning. Svensk Naturvetenskap, 52-94. SIMPSON, G. C. (1928) Further studies in terrestrial radiation. Mem. R. Meteor. Soc. 3 (21), 1-26.

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