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Risk Calculation Assignment

Apple cider sold by small farmers is prone to bacterial contamination due to contact with fetal material of the wild animals with infection. As pasteurization is expensive, it cannot be expected that small road side vendors to sell pasteurized goods. Pathway Apples Source Bacteria present in the Fecal matter from infected wild animals and bird droppings Medium Wild deer and birds Exposure point Apple cider Exposure Route Oral Injection Receptor Consumers

Lower limit Upper limit Mean infection rate per 10 persons Probability of infection = (1/11)*(infection rate/10) 0.018 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.063 0.327

0 180 329 375 414 448 481 561 561 615 699

180 329 375 414 448 481 519 615 615 699 1876

90 254.5 352 394.5 431 464.5 500 588 588 657 1287.5

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 Total Probability of infection

From the data analysis the probability of infection is more than 30% (when the cider is considered refrigerated continuously). So, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of symptoms.

1. Specify on the labels if the cider is unpasteurized along with keep refrigerated storage instructions By making the consumers aware of the presence of risk makes it an assumed risk and increases the chance of take any preventive measures like pasteurization and continuous refrigeration 2. Warning persons with weak immune system, young children and elderly against consuming unpasteurized product As these groups are people are more likely to fall ill due bacterial infection, warning statement should be posted on the label 3. Printing the date of packing on the cider bottles along with refrigerated shelf life The consumers can calculate the risk of bacteria growth in the cider depending on the shelf life of the product 4. Promoting the methods of pasteurization by printing on the label According to a report on in-home preparation of apple cider by Washington state university, the apple cider can be pasteurized without destroying the original taste, by heating it to 1600F [ref 1]. Printing this on the label of the cider bottle along with the caution of infection can increase the chance of pasteurization by consumers. 5. Identifying the source of high infection rate in the nearby deer population and taking measures to reduce it By reducing the amount of bacteria the fruits are exposed to, the propagation of bacteria to consumers can be decreased 6. Consumers should buy from the vendors only if the cider bottles are refrigerated Based on the data given in the literature, exposure to heat increases the growth of bacteria at an exponential factor of the duration of exposure. The risk of illness also increases with the population of bacteria in the cider


1. Fencing the Orchards preventing deer population from entering By curbing the medium of infection, the probability and amount of bacteria being present in the fruit can be reduced. But the Apple Orchards are generally spread in a wide area and erecting a fence strong enough to keep out the wild deer can prove expensive to the local farmers 2. Cleaning the Fecal matter on the ground daily Risk can be reduced by reducing the amount of source. This measure can be ambitious as it increases maintenance cost and complete cleaning is practically not feasible 3. Restricting the vendors from selling unpasteurized goods As specified in the given problem statement, this would make the small farm vendors unable to sell their produce due to high costs involved in the pasteurizing the cider


The people affected by implementing the suggested may have various responses to them. Probably the people who are most economically affected are farmers as they have to do the tedious and a bit expensive task of labeling, refrigerating and marking the expiries. This may make them reluctant to the policy. But the reasons of these implementations should be explained instead of making the pasteurization a mandatory. Consumers may be reluctant to pasteurize the apple cider by heating as they may fear the alteration of taste. But the benefits of pasteurization must be made clear as this is the most effective method of reducing risk of infection.