ECN Solar Energy R&D Plan 2014 in the context of the TKI Solar Energy Action Plan 2014

Draft summary, October 2013 (awaiting Top Team Energy priorities and decisions)

Developments in the global PV sector

The global PV industry sector is still in crisis, but the deepest point may have been reached. While 2012 showed a stabilization of the worldwide market compared to 2011 at 30 gigawatt-peak (GWp), the 2013 market is expected to grow to around 37 GWp. This growth is accompanied by a significant shift in geographical regions contributing to the total volume, with Asia/Pacific and the USA taking an increasing share, leading to a better spread and potentially a more robust market development. By the end of 2012 the total installed capacity was 100 GWp, 70% of which is in Europe. In spite of the fact that a significant volume of cell and module production capacity has gone off-line and that the market grows again, there is still overcapacity. Therefore upstream margins are very small at best and capacity expansions (or even upgrades) are rare. This severely affects the business of manufacturing companies and their suppliers, Dutch companies included. Interestingly, for several reasons the thin-film part of the sector was affected less in terms of manufacturing equipment ordered than the wafer-based silicon part. Economies of scale and, especially, production overcapacity, have resulted in rapid reduction of prices of solar modules and systems to very (unsustainably) low values. The downside of this development is, as indicated above, that manufacturing companies suffer and that technology innovation is very difficult. The upside, on the other hand, is that the first significant self-sustained markets may develop soon in several parts of the world, driven by the fact that grid parity in consumer and selected other markets has been reached. This is welcomed by stakeholders in the downstream part of the sector and gives a boost to the developments and innovations at system (application) level.

PV in the Netherlands
The PV systems market in the Netherlands grew explosively in 2012, with the capacity added in one year being bigger than the cumulative capacity of the two decades before. The combination of net metering and low prices makes PV an attractive investment for all consumers and for a growing number of SMEs. By the end of 2012, some 345 MWp was installed. 2012 was great year for the upstream part of the Dutch PV sector with almost 1000 companies active in installation (most of them have PV as a side business). The upstream part of the Dutch PV sector, mainly focused on manufacturing equipment & technology and materials, is strongly dependent on export and therefore suffers from the global situation. Companies spend their reserves and their time on preparing for better times, which hopefully will arrive soon. In concrete terms, this means that companies develop low cost, but

particularly high-efficiency technologies that are expected to be the focus of capacity expansions in the future.

Targets of the TKI Solar Energy

The TKI Solar Energy aims at: 1. facilitating and stimulating large-scale deployment of PV in the Netherlands and abroad by developing cost-competitive solutions for physical integration into the built environment, the infrastructure and the landscape and electrical integration into the grid; 2. maximizing the economic benefits for the Netherlands of the growth of the PV sector worldwide, in Europe and in our own country. In quantitative terms, the TKI Solar Energy aims at (see also the Table): 1. a minimum installed capacity of 4 GWp in 2020 (a target that can be stretched to 8 GWp if favorable conditions apply). 8 GWp corresponds to 6% of electricity consumption and 1% of final energy consumption. Thus, PV can make a significant contribution to the 2020 target of 14% as adopted in the National Energy Agreement; 2. 7.500 jobs in all parts of the PV sector in 2020, to be compared with approximately 2500 jobs in 2012.

TKI Solar Energy Program Lines and their contributions to the targets The TKI Solar Energy program is organized along the following Program Lines: 1. Integration 1a. Physical integration (buildings, infrastructure, landscape) - Solar Energy for the Built Environment ('ZEGO'; programming jointly with TKI EnerGO) Integrated PV - BIPV and I2PV. PV landscape architecture - maximizing output, minimizing impact. 1b. Electrical integration (grid) - Smart solar energy solutions Concepts for a very high degree of grid penetration (incl. storage and joint approaches with Wind Energy, Smart Grids and (power to) Gas) and fundamental development of future smart energy systems and system integration concepts.

Smart modules - integrated functionality for integration and yield maximization Production forecasting and virtual power plants 1c. Smart Energy City Initiative (with TKIs EnerGO and Switch2SmartGrids) 2. Generation 2a. Generic (enabling) technology development and combinations of PV technologies Development of generic and cross-cutting solutions for different PV technologies and production processes. Development of very high efficiency PV concepts based on crystalline silicon PV, thinfilm PV and combinations of different PV technologies. 2b. Thin-film PV technologies Increasing output and decreasing costs of thin-film PV concepts, by improving related production processes and equipment and by application of new materials. 2c. Wafer-based silicon PV technologies Increasing output and decreasing costs of wafer-based crystalline silicon PV cells and modules, by improving related production processes and equipment and by application of new device architectures and materials. 2d. Application-specific developments and demonstration Building a dedicated facility for pilot production and demonstration of integrated, high-performance PV products based on Dutch knowledge. Development of application-specific materials and PV product designs (e.g. for extreme operating conditions) and large-scale field testing and demonstration thereof.

3. Organisation 3a. Human Capital Agenda 3b. Internationalisation Agenda (including participation in EU programs) 3c. Further strengthening SME participation and business development (jointly with Syntens and Agency NL) 3d. Organising the Dutch PV sector, TKI program development, Top Sector-wide initiatives Program Line 1 contributes directly to the TKI deployment target in GWp, since it addresses the advanced system hardware needed for large-scale deployment in a densely populated country at very high degrees of grid penetration. Program Line 2 contributes indirectly to that volume target, by developing cost-competitive cells and modules that may be manufactured abroad, but will also be used in the Netherlands (note that approximately 50% of all solar modules produced worldwide contain Dutch technology). Program Lines 1 and 2 both contribute directly to the TKI employment target. Program Line 3 is supportive to the other two Program Lines.

ECN Solar Energy contributions to the TKI Action Plan 2014 ECN Solar Energys 2014 R&D plan closely follows the TKI priorities. The scope of ECNs plan, however, is narrower, because the TKI Plan describes R&D by all partners in the Netherlands, of which ECN is one, although an important. ECN priorities are highlighted in red in the TKI priorities. 1. Integration 1a. Physical integration (buildings, infrastructure, landscape) - Solar Energy for the Built Environment ('ZEGO'; programming jointly with TKI EnerGO) Integrated PV - BIPV and I2PV (application-related aspects of module technology). PV landscape architecture - maximizing output, minimizing impact. 1b. Electrical integration (grid) - Smart solar energy solutions Concepts for a very high degree of grid penetration (incl. storage and joint approaches with Wind Energy, Smart Grids and (power to) Gas) and fundamental development of future smart energy systems and system integration concepts. Smart modules - integrated functionality for integration and yield maximization Production forecasting and virtual power plants 1c. Smart Energy City Initiative (with TKIs EnerGO and Switch2SmartGrids) 2. Generation 2a. Generic (enabling) technology development and combinations of PV technologies Development of generic and cross-cutting solutions for different PV technologies and production processes including ECNs part in Solliance. Development of very high efficiency PV concepts based on crystalline silicon PV, thinfilm PV and combinations of different PV technologies including ECNs participation in the NWO-program supporting the Top Sector Energy. 2b. Thin-film PV technologies Increasing output and decreasing costs of thin-film PV concepts, by improving related production processes and equipment and by application of new materials ECNs part in Solliance. 2c. Wafer-based silicon PV technologies Increasing output and decreasing costs of wafer-based crystalline silicon PV cells and modules, by improving related production processes and equipment and by application of new device architectures and materials. 2d. Application-specific developments and demonstration Building a dedicated facility for pilot production and demonstration of integrated, high-performance PV products based on Dutch knowledge ECN as technology partner in a Dutch industry consortium. Development of application-specific materials and PV product designs (e.g. for extreme operating conditions) and large-scale field testing and demonstration thereof.

3. Organisation 3a. Human Capital Agenda 3b. Internationalisation Agenda (including participation in EU programs) 3c. Further strengthening SME participation and business development (jointly with Syntens and Agency NL) 3d. Organising the Dutch PV sector, TKI program development (ECNs contribution to TKI management), Top Sector-wide initiatives