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**Spatial Interpolation of Mean Yearly Precipitation using Universal Kriging
**

Damijana Kastelec1 and Katarina Košmelj2

Abstract

The objective of our work was to find an appropriate method for the spatial interpolation of mean yearly precipitation (MYP) into a regular grid with 1 km resolution, for Slovenia. A geostatistical approach and the universal kriging method was chosen. In the analysis, the dependence of MYP on geographical variables like altitude, latitude and longitude was considered. In the first step, we used exploratory methods to examine spatial variability of MYP and its dependence on geographical variables. The positive trend of MYP with altitude and the negative trend of MYP with longitude were taken into account in spatial interpolation. The spherical variogram model was chosen, considering variogram anisotropy. On the basis of cross-validation technique we chose for the influential surrounding the ellipse with the longer axis 80 km. The universal kriging results were encouraging and comparable with the subjectively

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Slovenia.uni-lj. 7KH DQDO\VLV VKRZHG WKDW the results for the eastern part of Slovenia are better than for the western mountainous part. . Biotehnical Faculty. Katarina. University of Ljubljana. This is due to the lack of observational stations in the mountainous part of Slovenia where the spatial variability of MYP is high.Kosmelj@bf. Slovenia.uni-lj. Damijana.Kastelec@bf.si. 1 2 Biotehnical Faculty.si. University of Ljubljana.

The predictions are made on the basis of the data from the neighbourhood locations. and the minimum of MYP is around 800 mm in the north-eastern part of Slovenia. Usually. In practise. The maximum of mean yearly precipitation (MYP) is around 3000 mm in the western mountainous part of Slovenia. Different maps of MYP for 6ORYHQLD ZHUH KDQGGUDZQ E\ =XSDQþLþ DQG E\ 3ULVWRY DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU VXEMHFWLYH NQRZOHGJH =XSDQþLþ .ROEH]HQ DQG 3ULVWRY . The precipitation is measured daily on irregularly spatially distributed meteorological stations (Fig. 1). thirty-year means of the yearly sums of precipitation (MYP) are considered in climatology. where the predictions for several locations have to be made. On the basis of daily data the yearly sums of precipitation are calculated. a map of MYP is required.150 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj 1 Introduction The geographical position of Slovenia and its climate induce large spatial variability of precipitation amounts. we often need to predict the value of MYP for a location where no measurements exist. In general.

The results of cross-validation using different influential surroundings are SUHVHQWHG 7KHQ RXU P DS RI 0<3 LV FRP SDUHG ZLWK WKH P DS GUDZQ E\ =XSDQþLþ (1996). we used IDRISI for Windows program (Eastman. In the paper. For mapping. A crossvalidation technique is used for the verification of the universal kriging model. first some plots to examine the dependence of MYP on geographical variables is presented. for Slovenia. 2 Exploratory analysis We deal with mean yearly sums of precipitation (MYP) for 362 meteorological stations in Slovenia for the period 1961-1990. 1997). The universal kriging method was used and the dependence of MYP on geographical variables was considered.0g (Pbesma. Additionally. Then the results of variogram estimation is presented. In the next step. The objective of our work was to find an appropriate method for spatial interpolation of MYP into a regular grid with 1 km resolution. kriging predictions of MYP also taking into account some Croatian and Italian meteorological stations near the Slovenian border is presented. For geostatistical calculations. 1998) was used. A geostatistical approach was chosen. The quality of the universal kriging predictions is analysed on the basis of kriging variances. the program Gstat 2. In one case of spatial interpolation we . The data were collected by the Hidrometeorological Institute of Slovenia. the universal kriging theory is summarised.

Spatial Interpolation of Mean… 151 also took into account the data from 25 meteorological stations in Croatia and 20 meteorological stations in Italia (Fig. Figures 2. graphs to explore the dependence of the MYP on some geographical variables were plotted. In general. in Slovenia the amount of precipitation increases with altitude and decreases with longitude from West to Est. 3 and 4 show this dependence.1). First. The data from the meteorological stations in the QRUWKZHVWHUQ SDUW RI 6ORYHQLD WKH GUDLQDJH EDVLQ RI WKH ULYHU 6RþD )LJ OHIW.

If we exclude the data from this region. Figure 1: The relief of Slovenia and the locations of meteorological stations in the period 1961-1990. §¨¡¢ ¢ §¨ ¢ ¢ ¥¦¡¢ ¢ I GH F DE H ¥¦ ¢ ¢ £¤¡¢ ¢ £¤ ¢ ¢ ¡¢ ¢ §¦©¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦§¢ ¦ ¢ ¨ ©¨ ¦ ¢ ¨ ¡¦§¢ ¨ ¢ ¦ ¢¨ "!¢#%$ &(')"01012 3(4 ¦¢#54768¨94 !¨ ¢') #8@¨ACB P Q¢#5 ' RC4 S2 TU#80 P 9Q¦#5¢ ' ¡¢©¦ ¨ ¢ ¦ ¦§¢ ¨ ¢ ¦ Figure 2: Dependence of mean yearly precipitation (MYP) on longitude for 362 locations in Slovenia (period 1961-1990). and some locations of precipitation measurements in Croatia and Italia. This region is specific: there is the maximum of MYP in Slovenia which is determined by relief and by weather dynamics. . There is no significant trend of MYP on latitude. DUH marked with black triangle. the negative linear trend of MYP with longitude and positive linear trend of MYP with altitude are evident.

p m ll plll o m ll ~ |} odlll n m ll nlll m ll l l m ll n¢lll n m ll qr s¤t s u(vjwyx zf{ r Yw¢ %tkq f5s (1we)s r fdw¨ %tkq o%ll7l o m ll pdlljl Figure 4: Dependence of mean yearly precipitation (MYP) on altitude for 362 locations in Slovenia (period 1961-1990).152 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj There are very few locations with an altitude higher than 1000 m.2% of the stations. 5 (right) shows the distribution of the topography for Slovenia in comparison with the distribution of the meteorological station altitude. The Fig. a W V%V a%V(V%V ` W V%V `(V(V%V X W V%V XYV(V%V W V%V V a%V(V%V(V W V(V%V%V b%V(V%V%V c%V%V(V%V XdXYV(V%V(V Xea%V(V%V%V X W V%V%V%V Xfb%VdV(V%V Xfc%VdV(V%V g h"i5p i5qsrdtvu)wvhYqyx¢x¨5v8qsdte ed9r(p sh"i5tY g d%t"yp1h efd5i5gs)hitfx9i g jd%tYspkh Figure 3: Dependence of mean yearly precipitation (MYP) on latitude for 362 locations in Slovenia (period 1961-1990).5% of the topography in comparison with 5. The discrepancy above 1000 m is evident: 11. .

Spatial Interpolation of Mean… 153 8) k¹ ¦k Y¢ º¤»8º)¼¤¹ k»)½1¾ ¸ ¶· ³ ¬´µ ± ° ² ®¯ ¬ )) 8) ) ) ª%¦ ¢ ¦1º)¹ º5¡ º5¼)£ §1 k¡9¨ ¢ ¢ £ º5¿8¨ Y))1)¦)¤5¤¢)¤¤1¨¨9k1k9¨ 1¤ ¤¢ 1¡ ¢ £ ¢ ¤¥)¦Y§1¡ ¤¨ ¨ ¦¤¨© ª« Figure 5: 7KH 1RUWK:HVW 6ORYHQLD GUDLQDJH EDVLQ RI WKH ULYHU 6RþD OHIW.

n are calculated under the condition for uniformly unbiased predictor: T X = xT (s 0 ) .. The mathematical model is: U (s ) = β 0 + β1 x1 (s ) + β 2 x2 (s ) + δ (s ) .. U (s ) is a random variable representing MYP at the location s . δ (s ) is an intrinsic stationary random process with existing (2) expressed as a linear combination of the measured values U (s i ) on n locations: ˆ (s ) = ∑ λ U (s ) . the optimal linear unbiased predictor. where h = si − s j is a distance vector between locations s i and s j . i = 1... 3 3. x1 (s ) is the linear trend. The random proces value on location s 0 . the predicted value U 0 (3) Linear coefficients λi .1 The spatial interpolation The universal kriging theory The universal kriging. β1 and β 2 are coefficients of variogram 2γ (h ) . U (s 0 ) is: U (s 0 ) = xT (s 0 ) + δ (s 0 ) . considering linear trend with altitude and longitude was used for MYP spatial interpolation. σ 2 (s 0 ) = E U (s 0 ) − U 0 ( ) (5) . (4) 2 and under the constraint of minimal kriging variance σ (s 0 ) at location s 0 : ˆ (s ) 2 . β 0 . U i i 0 n i =1 ˆ (s ) can be According to the universal kriging theory. (1) longitude and x2 (s ) is the altitude at location s . 7KH distribution of the topography (grid resolution 100 m) and the meteorological stations with altitude for Slovenia (right).

h > a 0. the semivariogram values for the detrended MYP were calculated (Fig. is required. The details of this theory can be found in Cressie (1993). N (h ) N (h ) (6) The γ (h ) is often called a semivariogram. h > 0 (8) (9) (10) The results indicate that the variogram range for Slovenia is around 40 km (Fig. 6). h = 0 Nug (0 ) = 1. 6) and the spherical variogram model with nugget effect was fitted: γ (s i − s j ) = c0 Nug (0) + c1Sph(a ) 3(h ) 1 (h ) 3 − . The estimates for the variogram (7) N (h ) denotes the set of pairs of locations at distance h and N (h ) denotes the number of corresponding pairs of locations. a variogram which is a measure of spatial continuity of the data. The variogram 2γ (h ) is defined as: var(U (s + h ) − U (s )) = 2γ (h ) . The nugget effect presents the semivariance of MYP on microscale. The range 40 km seems acceptable for Slovenia according to its relief and climate diversity. 3. This value represents the longest distance with correlated values of the random process U (s ) .0 ≤ h ≤ a Sph(a ) = 2 a 2 a 1.2 Variogram model estimation The spatial continuity of the data was examined on the basis of our variogram analysis. 2γˆ (h ) are calculated by the equation: 2γˆ (h ) = 1 2 ∑ (U (s i ) − U (s j )) . Firstly.154 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj It can be shown that for calculation of λ -s. .

The anisotropy of the random process was examined through the variogram map (Fig. Numbers at crosses present N (h ) .45000 45000 . 7). The variogram map shows that . 6 is based on the assumption that the spatial continuity of U (s ) is the same in all directions. The distances are expressed in meters and the semivariances (semivariogram values) in mm2 .0g program.Spatial Interpolation of Mean… 155 Figure 6: The isotropic variogram model for δ (s ) made by Gstat 2.50000 50000 .30000 30000 . which graphically presents the semivariogram values for different distances and for different directions.60000 nad 60000 m 50000.00 Figure 7: The variogram map for MYP. The semivariogram on Fig. pod 25000 mm2 25000 .35000 35000 . This assumption is not acceptable for MYP in Slovenia.40000 40000 .

The variogram range for the NW-SE direction is around 80 km. Fig. and the kriging prediction is made for the eliminated location on the basis of the remaining locations. 3.156 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj the spatial continuity in the direction North-West to South-East (NW-SE) is much stronger than in the opposite direction (NE-SW). The size of the influential surrounding has an impact on the kriging predictions and on their kriging variances. 8 and 9). In our case.3 The influential surrounding The influential surrounding is the area around the prediction location. we calculated two semivariograms. We carried out several universal kriging calculations to find the appropriate dimension of the ellipse (Fig. for each direction separately. By cross-validation. 8 presents the relative residuals (difference between the measured and the predicted MYP divided by the measured MYP) for different sizes of ellipse. The cross-validation technique was used for the evaluation of the kriging results. In our case. The variograms indicate that the upper limit for the longer axis is 160 km. 100 km and 80 km). 9 the corresponding kriging variances. and for the perpendicular direction around 30 km. Á¢Â Ã¦Â è Ä¢Â æç Þã ß áä å ÜÝã á à Ýâ Þß ÜÝ Å)Â Â À¤Å)Â À Ä¢Â À Ã¦Â À Á¢Â Ã¦Æ¨Â¨Â¦Â¨Â Ô¤é¦Í Õ ê È¦Âsë Ú Á¨Á¢Â¨Â9Â¦Â Ç¨Â¦Â¨Â¨Â¦Â Ç¨È¦Â¨Â¨Â¦Â É Ê8Ë¢Ì¨Í Î Ï¢Ð¦Ñ%Ò Ó%Ô5ÏÕ1Õ À Öd× Ï¦Ì¨Ñ ×fØ 9 Ê Ê × Ð¨Í ËÔ1Î Ñ¤ÙÚ Û Ô5é¦Í Õ ê Å¤Á¦Â9ë Ú Ô5é¦Í Õ ê Å5Â¨Â9ë Ú Ô5é¦Í Õ ê Æ¨Âë Ú ÈÄ¦Â¦Â¨Â¦Â Figure 8: The relative residuals given by cross-validation using different influential surroundings (ellipses with the longer axis 60 km. . from which the measured values are taken into account by kriging. It turns out that the reasonable value for the ellipse longer axis is 80 km. each meteorological station is eliminated out of the kriging calculation separately. the relative residuals and the kriging variances do not depend on the ellipse size. and Fig. the influential surrounding is the ellipse with the longer axis in the direction NW-SE. 140 km. The range ratio is 0. except for some locations.36. This geometric anisotropy was taken into account in further analyses. Therefore. and for the shorter axis 60 km. Further analysis showed that these meteorological stations are located near the Slovenian border.

100 km and 80 km).Spatial Interpolation of Mean… ô¢ì¢ììì ó ì¢ììì 157 4 223 0 1) # '%('" # $% #! $" 1 òì¢ììì ñ ì¢ììì ð"ì¢ììì & ïì¢ììì î"ì¢ììì íì¢ììì ì ï"ô¢ìì¢ìì ð¢ð"ìììì ñ ìì¢ììì õ ö¨÷"ø¦ù ú û"üýyþ ÿ¡ )û£¢¤¢¦¥ §©¨ ûeø¢ý¨¨ö¦ö¨kü¦ù ÷ )ú ý ñ òìì¢ì"ì ò¦î"ììì"ì 5¢ù ¢ 6 òì87 95ù ¢@6 í)ð"ì7 95ù ¢ 6 íìì7 A5¢ù ¢@6 ô¢ì7 Figure 9: The kriging variances given by cross-validation using different influential surroundings (ellipses with the longer axis 60 km. 140 km. 3. The universal kriging results were encouraging and similar to the subjectively GHWHUP LQHG P DS =XSDQþLþ .4 Mapping MYP Fig. The kriging predictions were calculated for a regular grid with 1 km resolution. 10 presents the map of the kriging predictions of MYP using anisotropic variogram and the ellipse with longer axis 80 km as influential surrounding.

. Figure 10: The map of MYP for Slovenia.

10. and the locations which have kriging variances greater than 36000 mm 2 (90-th percentile). The relative residuals and the kriging variances are the greatest for the locations near the Slovenian border and for the locations on the specific mountainous regions.158 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj 3. 8). Fig. Around 88% of the relative residuals are in the range -10% to 10%. This is due to the lack of meteorological stations in the mountainous region where the spatial variability of MYP is high. Fig. Fig. It is evident that the kriging variance is small in the neighbourhood of the measurement locations and large for the regions with small number of measurement locations as well as for some regions near Slovenian border. 35 30 relative frequency 25 20 15 10 5 0 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 relative residuals (%) Figure 11: The distribution of relative residuals. 11 presents the histogram of the residuals obtained by cross-validation. 12 shows the locations which have relative residuals smaller than -15% or greater than 15%. In general. . the relative residuals for the eastern part of Slovenia are smaller then for the western mountainous part (Fig. 10 was examined on the basis of cross-validation results and on the basis of a kriging variances analysis.5 The quality of the kriging predictions The quality of the kriging predictions in Fig. 13 presents the map of kriging variances for the predictions on Fig.

residuals smaller than -15% and kriging variance larger than 90-th percentile at the same time.Spatial Interpolation of Mean… 159 Figure 12: The type of locations according to the value of the relative residual and kriging variance: large black circle . Figure 13: The map of kriging variances for map of MYP (Fig. small black square .residuals smaller than -15%. .residuals larger than +15% and kriging variance larger than 90-th percentile at the same time.kriging variance larger than 90-th percentile. transparent circle .12). large black square .. transparent square residuals larger than +15%. . small black circle the others.

Figure 15: Relative differences between kriging variances if Slovenian data were used and if also some Croatian and Italian data were used.160 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj Figure 14: Relative differences between kriging predictions of MYP if only Slovenian data and if also some Croatian and Italian data were used. 14 and 15 present the relative differences between kriging predictions of MYP and kriging variances if only Slovenian data were used and if also the additional data were used. Therefore. . Fig. we examined the quality of predictions near the Slovenian border. and the kriging variances are even smaller for more than 20%. 1). The relative differences in predictions are for some areas near the Slovenian border even greater than 10%. some Croatian and Italian data were also included into the kriging calculations (Fig. In further work.

Spatial Interpolation of Mean… 161 4 Conclusions The universal kriging results were encouraging and comparable with the VXEMHFWLYHO\ REWDLQHG P DS =XSDQþLþ .

The analysis of residuals calculated by cross-validation.DMIHå%RJDWDM / . Some data from Italian and Croatian meteorological stations were added and the change in predictions and kriging variances on the locations near the Slovenian border were analysed. showed that the results for the eastern part of Slovenia are better than for the western mountainous part. The results showed that we should include in spatial interpolation as many measurements across the Slovenian border as possible. This is due to the lack of observational stations in the mountainous part of Slovenia where the spatial variability of MYP is high. DQG . The analysis of kriging variances showed that the quality of predictions near the Slovenian border is considerably lower than in the inner region. References [1] %HUJDQW .

Hidrometeorološki zavod RS. 91-97. [3] Eastman. [4] Gandin. 71 . [5] Geodetska uprava RS. Version 2. [6] Kastelec.R. 1965). G. (1999): Analiza višine novozapadlega snega v Sloveniji . Neve e Valanghe. Economic Geology.J. Research Reports . (1997): Površinski vodotoki in vodna bilanca Slovenije.QIOXHQFH RI GLIIHUHQW GDWD densities on the mapping of agroclimatological parameters .S. . 1246-1266. D.geog. Clark labs for Cartographic Technology and Geographics Analysis.nl/gstat/ [10] Vrhovec. J.A. Hidrometeorološki zavod republike Slovenije.uu. 35 . (1998): Gstat User’s Manual. 58 . http://www. User's Guide. [7] Kolbezen. [8] Matheron. (1993): Statistics for Spatial Data . Digitalni model reliefa. Biotechnical Faculty. [9] Pebesma. and Sluga G. N.0. (1963): Principles of geostatistics . Jerusalem. . E. Ljubljana. [2] Cressie. M. Leningrad (translated by Israel Program for Scientific translations. (1963): Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields . and Pristov. L. J. Revised Edition. Revision 5. (1998): La percentuale in acqua del manto nevoso sulle Alpi Giulie. 6-11.C. T. (1997): Idrisi for Windows. New York: Wiley. Gidrometeorologicheskoe Izdatel’stvo (GIMIZ).case of precipitation. University of Ljubljana. Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics.

162 Damijana Kastelec and Katarina Košmelj [11] [12] =XSDQþLþ % .

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51. =XSDQþLþ SURVWRUX % . Ljubljana. Climate Y of Slovenia . Hidrometeorološki zavod RS.

Q *HRJUDIVNL DWODV 6ORYHQLMH 'UåDYD LQ þDVX . . 3DGDYLQH . DZS. Geografski inštitut Antona Melika ZRC SAZU. 98-99. Inštitut za gegrafijo. Ljubljana.

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