From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties
Subject: McAuliffe continues to lead big in Virginia early voting, Herring up big too
Date: October 29, 2013
A new batch of polling of early voters in Virginia finds that Terry McAuliffe continues to
hold a commanding lead over Ken Cuccinelli among those who’ve already cast their
ballots. Combining interviews from the last two weekends McAuliffe has received 55%
of the vote so far to just 40% for Ken Cuccinelli and 3% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis.
McAuliffe’s lead is particularly significant because early voting is on pace to increase
from its 2009 levels, and he’s flipped the large victory Bob McDonnell had with early
voters in that election.
This week’s round of polling additionally shows that there’s little drop off for Democrats
from the Governor’s race to the contest for Attorney General. Democratic AG candidate
Mark Herring has banked a 54-42 lead over Republican foe Mark Obenshain among
those who’ve already voted, suggesting that most people are just voting Democratic
down the line rather than splitting their tickets.
Other key findings from the polling include:
-McAuliffe is continuing to win independent voters by a wide margin, now up 54/36 with
those who have voted so far. He’s also benefiting from a more unified party, with 89% of
Democrats supporting him compared to only 84% of Republicans who have cast their
ballots for Cuccinelli.
-McAuliffe has double digit leads so far with seniors (54/42) and whites (53/43), groups
Democrats don’t tend to do very well with in Virginia. Those numbers speak strongly to
the possibility of a Democratic sweep next Tuesday.
PPP interviewed 724 early voters on October 19th and 20th and another 709 on October
26th and 27th for a total of 1,433 interviews with a margin of error of +/-2.6% on behalf of
the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Virginia Survey Results
Q1

Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot, in this
fall’s election for Governor and other state
offices?

Q5

Barack Obama................................................ 54%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 41%

Have ...............................................................100%
Have not ......................................................... 0%

Q2

In the election for Governor, did you vote for
Republican Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, or Libertarian Robert Sarvis?
Ken Cuccinelli ................................................ 40%

Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 5%

Q6

Man................................................................. 45%

Q7

Robert Sarvis .................................................. 4%

Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other .......................................... 27%

Q8

Mark Herring ................................................... 54%

Q4

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 39%

Don't remember .............................................. 2%

In the election for Attorney General, did you
vote for Democrat Mark Herring or Republican
Mark Obenshain?

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 55%

Terry McAuliffe ................................................ 54%

Q3

In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.

Mark Obenshain ............................................. 42%

Hispanic .......................................................... 5%

Don't remember .............................................. 3%

White .............................................................. 78%
African-American ............................................ 9%

Which of the candidates for Governor do you
trust most to address energy issues?
Ken Cuccinelli ................................................ 40%
Terry McAuliffe ................................................ 51%
Robert Sarvis .................................................. 4%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Other............................................................... 7%

Q9

If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 8%
30 to 45........................................................... 8%
46 to 65........................................................... 40%
Older than 65 .................................................. 44%

October 26-27, 2013
Survey of 709 early voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber
Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Herring/Obenshain

Ken Cuccinelli 40%

5%

89%

25%

Terry McAuliffe 54%

92%

8%

22%

Robert Sarvis

4%

2%

3%

31%

Don't rem em ber

2%

1%

1%

23%

Mark Herring 54%

89%

12%

24%

Mark Obenshain 42%

8%

86%

56%

Don't rem em ber

3%

2%

20%

3%

2012 Vote

Gender

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber

Base Wom an

Man

Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Most Trusted to
Address Energy
Ken Cuccinelli 40%

6%

85%

31%

Ken Cuccinelli 40%

39%

43%

Terry McAuliffe 51%

Terry McAuliffe 54%

55%

52%

87%

7%

23%

Robert Sarvis

4%

2%

3%

29%

Not sure

5%

5%

5%

17%

October 26-27, 2013
survey of 709 early voters

Robert Sarvis

4%

4%

3%

Don't rem em ber

2%

2%

2%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an

Base Wom an

Man
Most Trusted to
Address Energy

Herring/Obenshain
Mark Herring 54%

55%

53%

Mark Obenshain 42%

41%

44%

4%

3%

Don't rem em ber

3%

Ken Cuccinelli 40%

37%

42%

Terry McAuliffe 51%

53%

49%

Robert Sarvis

4%

4%

3%

Not sure

5%

6%

5%

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Herring/Obenshain

Ken Cuccinelli 40%

7%

85%

34%

Terry McAuliffe 54%

91%

10%

54%

Robert Sarvis

4%

2%

4%

6%

Don't rem em ber

2%

0%

1%

5%

October 26-27, 2013
survey of 709 early voters

Man

Mark Herring 54%

87%

14%

56%

Mark Obenshain 42%

11%

84%

37%

2%

2%

7%

Don't rem em ber

3%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Party

Race

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Most Trusted to
Address Energy
Ken Cuccinelli 40%

8%

83%

33%

Terry McAuliffe 51%

89%

7%

51%

Robert Sarvis

4%

1%

5%

6%

Not sure

5%

2%

5%

10%

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other
Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis
Ken Cuccinelli 40%

32%

44%

10%

42%

Terry McAuliffe 54%

65%

50%

84%

45%

Robert Sarvis

4%

3%

4%

2%

8%

Don't rem em ber

2%

-

2%

4%

5%

Race

Race
AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other
Herring/Obenshain
Mark Herring 54%

68%

52%

68%

49%

Mark Obenshain 42%

32%

46%

17%

42%

Don't rem em ber

October 26-27, 2013
survey of 709 early voters

3%

-

2%

15%

9%

Most Trusted to
Address Energy
Ken Cuccinelli 40%

28%

44%

10%

39%

Terry McAuliffe 51%

58%

48%

82%

45%

Robert Sarvis

4%

10%

4%

-

6%

Not sure

5%

4%

5%

8%

9%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis

Base
Herring/Obenshain

Ken Cuccinelli 40%

41%

52%

34%

44%

Terry McAuliffe 54%

50%

44%

59%

51%

Robert Sarvis

4%

5%

4%

5%

3%

Don't rem em ber

2%

5%

-

2%

2%

Mark Herring 54%

50%

42%

59%

52%

Mark Obenshain 42%

45%

50%

37%

45%

5%

8%

4%

2%

Don't rem em ber

3%

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Most Trusted to
Address Energy
Ken Cuccinelli 40%

41%

50%

34%

43%

Terry McAuliffe 51%

45%

44%

57%

48%

Robert Sarvis

4%

9%

4%

4%

2%

Not sure

5%

5%

2%

4%

7%

October 26-27, 2013
survey of 709 early voters

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

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