25 October 2013

Economics & FI/FX Research

EEMEA Eco Daily

CZ: Positive – Business and consumer sentiment improves in October HU: Positive – Business and consumer sentiment improves in October Mixed – EcMin presents budget draft for 2014 (p2)


Today’s Events
SRB: Sep real wages / SI: October sentiment indicator / TR: Oct industrial confidence indicator, capacity utilization

EURPLN EURCZK EURHUF -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

EEMEA Markets
In the Czech Republic and Hungary, another improvement in business and consumer confidence signals that the economic recovery is well under way, but the impact on currencies will probably be limited. In the Czech Republic, post-electoral noise could temporarily prevent the CZK from appreciating. In Hungary, further monetary easing and the ongoing debate about converting FX mortgage loans to HUF might prevent the currency from appreciating below EUR-HUF 290. In the Czech Republic, business sentiment rose to 7.0 in October from 5.1 in September, climbing above the level registered in May 2012. Business sentiment bottomed out in March 2013, before better demand from Germany had an impact on industrial production and exports. Consumer confidence bottomed out in April 2012 and is now close to the level last seen in February 2011. Private consumption rose strongly in 1Q13 vs. 4Q12 before correcting slightly in 2Q13. Consumer lending for goods and services accelerated during the summer and low inflation is spurring real wage growth. The data bode well for our assumption of the ongoing sequential growth of GDP in 2H13. Actually, we now see a chance of private consumption starting to add to growth from 4Q13 onwards. The improvement in Hungarian sentiment indicators was similar, with business confidence at a 30-month high and consumer confidence at its highest since February 2011. Sentiment in industry again led the recovery, with output and orders indices rising. Companies in construction and services were more optimistic in October than in September, but don’t expect a fast recovery of their activity. For consumers, an improving financial position might reflect the effects of higher real wages and repayment relief for a higher number of mortgage borrowers. We expect private consumption to contribute 0.2pp to GDP growth in 2013 after subtracting 0.7pp last year. Yesterday’s business confidence data was in line with the rising manufacturing PMI in Germany and shows that industry continues to provide the momentum for the economic recovery in CEE. While consumption accelerates in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, investments lag, weighing on domestic demand.
Pavel Sobisek, Chief Economist (UniCredit Bank Czechia) +420 955 960-716 pavel.sobisek@unicreditgroup.cz Dan Bucşa, Economist (UniCredit Bank London) +44 207 826-7954 dan.bucsa@unicredit.eu

5Y swap rates (bp)

1M chg 1D chg








5Y CDS (bp) Czech R. Poland Russia Romania Turkey South Africa Hungary -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1M chg 1D chg

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

Head of Economics & FI/FX Research Erik F. Nielsen (UniCredit Bank London) Global Chief Economist +44 207 826-1765 erik.nielsen@unicredit.eu EEMEA Macro and Strategy Gillian Edgeworth (UniCredit Bank London) Dan Bucşa (UniCredit Bank London) Carlos Ortiz (UniCredit Bank London) Dmitry Veselov (UniCredit Bank London) Internet www.research.unicreditgroup.eu

UniCredit Research

page 1

See last pages for disclaimer.

Thus.eu UniCredit Research page 2 See last pages for disclaimer.bucsa@unicredit. general elections will add pressure on public spending. The government expects real GDP to grow by 2. state budget plans have been too optimistic. we expect Hungary’s gross financing needs to remain above 20% of GDP in 2014. although the need to reduce the debt-toGDP ratio prevents the AKK from pre-financing more of next year’s needs. While the government promised not to present an "election budget". inflation to reach 2. we believe that the Hungarian yield curve will bear steepen again next year. the government’s emphasis on increasing the state’s presence in the service sector through acquisitions will prevent the reduction of public debt. . The current benign risk environment helps the government borrow. the emphasis on subsidies for households. With the service sector heavily taxed and bearing additional losses from loan conversions (for the banking sector) and price cuts (for energy and utility companies). In 2014. Moreover. Hence. but additional tax packages might be implemented if revenues fall again short of expectations.4% and the budget deficit to be 2. once the easing cycle is over and interest rates start normalizing on foreign markets. For the past two years.9% of GDP on an accrual basis (ESA95). utility price cuts and wage hikes tells a different story.25 October 2013 Economics & FI/FX Research EEMEA Eco Daily Hungary The debate on the 2014 budget law started yesterday with economy minister Mihály Varga presenting the draft budget to parliament. the scope for implementing further sectoral taxes is very limited. especially when estimating public revenues. We don’t see a threat to the deficit level in 2014. leading to numerous revisions and several rounds of additional tax packages per year. Economist (UniCredit Bank London) +44 207 826-7954 dan.0% in 2014. Dan Bucşa.

UniCredit Research UniCredit Research page 3 See last pages for disclaimer.a.a. n.a. n.a.37 4.4 -1. n.6 -0. n. n.5 75. n.1 5 -14.8 0 0.a.4 0.25 October 2013 Economics & FI/FX Research EEMEA Eco Daily Rolling Key Events & Data Release Calendar Date 21-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 21-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 24-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 Country EE EE LT SI SI LV LV PL PL PL HR TR RO TR BG RU RU CZ CZ CZ UA UA SI RS TR TR RS TR TR Event Estonia PPI YoY Estonia PPI MoM Lithuania Industrial Production Excl Construction 2010=100 YoY Slovenia PPI YoY Slovenia PPI MoM Latvia PPI YoY Latvia PPI MoM Poland Unemployment Rate Poland Retail Sales YoY Poland Retail Sales MoM Croatia Unemployment Rate Turkey Tourism Arriving Visitors Foreigners Yearly Change Romania Money Supply M2 YoY Turkey 1 Week Repo Announcement Bulgaria Gross External Debt Russia CPI WoW Daily Russia CPI Weekly Year-to-Date% Czech Republic Consumer Confidence Indicator Balance Czech Republic Composite Confidence Indicator Balance Czech Republic Business Confidence Indicator Balance Ukraine Money Supply M3 YoY Ukraine Money Supply M3 MoM SLOVENIA SENTIMENT INDICATOR SA Serbia Wages Gross Real Yearly Turkey Confidence Index Real Sector Turkey Capacity Utilization NSA Serbia Wages Gross Real Yearly Turkey Confidence Index Real Sector Turkey Capacity Utilization NSA Period Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug 17-Sep Jul 14-Oct 14-Oct Sep Sep Sep Aug Aug Sep Aug Sep Sep Aug Sep Sep Previous 3. n.2 0. n.7 -12 -1.a. n.a. n.a. n.1 18.a.a. n.a.a. n.7 0.a.a.a. n. n.6 4.2 1.a.a.2 13 3. n. n.a. n.5 -2.a.2 n.a. Source: Bloomberg. .2 0.6 108.2 5.4 10.5 75. n.a.a.7 18.a.4 Consensus n.4 -0. n. n.a. n.a. 13 4.5 37296. n. n.3 1.a.6 108.

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