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NDI 2013 – 6WS – Topic Advantage Counterplans

**Negative**

Amazon

.org/international/en/press/releases/soya-traders-extend-moratorium/) "This is the sort of industry initiative we need to stop the destruction of the Amazon and help to prevent runaway climate change. July 28 of 2009. we cannot say the same about cattle.¶ Soya cultivation in the Amazon increased dramatically about 15 years ago with the introduction of new cultivars that were suitable for the climate and soils.1NC Text: the Federative Republic of Brazil should indefinitely extend and enforce the soy moratorium Solves the Amazon – it is a necessary first step to stop degradation Greenpeace 9 – non-governmental environmental organization which takes action to stop environmental degradation (“Soya traders extend moratorium on Amazon destruction”.greenpeace. It was only possible because companies worldwide demanded it. However. knowing that their customers would not want to buy products linked to Amazon rainforest destruction. http://www. The soya moratorium is a model for all relevant sectors. It can be argued that soy itself is not a major displacer of forest. Greenpeace Amazon Campaign director.¶ "Soya is no longer a significant force in the destruction of the Amazon rainforest. but more it encourages infrastructure developments and forces cattle ranchers into the forest.” said Brazil’s Environment Minister Carlos Minc.” ¶ The soya moratorium extension was announced at a press conference in Brasília attended by Brazil’s Environment Minister Carlos Minc and the Soya Working Group."said Paulo Adario.¶ "Now all eyes are on President Lula to demonstrate his government’s leadership by increasing efforts to govern the Amazon and to stop deforestation across all sectors.

The removal of¶ gallery forests has raised concern because these forests play an important ecological role in the area. anacondas. August of 2003. This is primarily because seeds have been fraudulently imported from Argentina¶ where GM soybean varieties are planted on a wide scale (EU 2002). large monoculture soybean plantations15 have had a significant impact on biodiversity .¶ monkeys and capybaras—the world’s largest rodents (UNESCO 2001). including kites. Compared to perennial¶ crops. and provide a critical habitat for bird fauna and a number of endemic species (Tengnäs¶ & Nilsson 2003).¶ particularly if these plantations replace Cerrado or tropical rain forest. annual cropping inefficiently utilizes water and nutrients resulting in degradation of soil and¶ water quality. . alligators.¶ Concerns have also been raised about the impact of genetically-modified (GM) soybean varieties on¶ biodiversity16. This process may alter ecosystem processes and thereby pose a threat to natural¶ plant species (La Vina 2003). such as Brazil and Bolivia. August of 2003. It is worth noting that the use of pesticides and herbicides do not only have an impact on¶ biodiversity in areas actually planted with soybeans. pdf) In Brazil. iguanas. for instance.2NC Solvency Soybeans are uniquely worse for the Amazon than other causes – only a permanent ban resolves that Casson 3 – writer for the World Wildlife Fund (Anne. The Brazilian government banned the use of GM soybean¶ varieties in Brazil in 1999.¶ Soybean expansion can also be linked to the expansion of pasture development for cattle ranching—one¶ of the main causes of tropical deforestation in Brazilian Amazon (Schneider et al. The removal of Cerrado trees for the Brazilian steel industry is¶ thought to be resulting in the loss of 200. In the¶ Cerrado region. Evidence suggests that wide-spread pesticide use¶ has been having an impact on biodiversity on the down-stream Pantanal wetland area. This area is one¶ of the world’s largest most important wetlands and refuge to hundreds of bird species. Satellite¶ imagery has shown how large-scale soy expansion in the southern state of Parana.000 ha of gallery forests per year (ELC 2002). These trees are used by the Brazilian steel industry¶ for charcoal production18. Monoculture soybean¶ plantations are thought to have a larger impact on biodiversity and the general environment than oil¶ palm plantations and cattle ranching because soybeans are an annual crop. soybean expansion has been linked to cattle ranch expansion and charcoal production. It is estimated 80% of the charcoal used in the Brazilian steel industry is¶ derived from native Cerrado trees. Soybean¶ farmers primarily clear gallery forests for charcoal producers because profits extracted from the clearing¶ of Cerrado tree vegetation on soybean farms can be used to further soybean expansion. particularly those¶ found nearby rivers in gallery forests (RBGE 2002). macaws and toucans. pdf) The relationship between soybean expansion. SOYBEANS & CRITICAL HABITAT LOSS”. river otters. SOYBEANS & CRITICAL HABITAT LOSS”. anteaters.¶ hawks. however at least 10% of Brazilian soybean area is already thought to¶ genetically modified. charcoal production and pasture development in Brazil¶ In Brazil. “OIL PALM.¶ The forests provide corridors linking the Amazon and the coastal rainforests with the Cerrado on the¶ central plateau. The impact of GM soybean species is of special concern in countries rich¶ in biodiversity. soybean expansion has provided access to Cerrado trees. This is because genetically modified plants may transfer genetic material and associated¶ traits to wild species. 2000). “OIL PALM. Soybean production in the Amazon leads to other destructive habits – the moratorium solves Casson 3 – writer for the World Wildlife Fund (Anne. as well as jaguars. Biodiversity loss is greatest in large-scale estates where native vegetation is cleared¶ using machinery and enormous quantities of pesticides and herbicides are used (Tengnäs & Nilsson¶ 2003).

Access to new areas in the Amazon has¶ been made possible through the development of new roads. ¶ Philip Fearnside. soybeans have become one of the most important contributors to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. http://www. This trend forced small-scale farmers to migrate19¶ into the Amazon area. such as the timber and cattle industries. Kaimowitz & Smith 2001). Soybean farming also provides a key economic and political impetus for new highways and infrastructure projects. Solves Amazon degradation – soy farming leads to direct deforestation and provides incentives for other actors to harm the environment Mangabay no date – Tropical rainforest conservation and environmental science news (“Amazon Destruction: Why is the rainforest being destroyed in Brazil?”. Harlin 11 – writer about energy and consumption. But they have a much greater impact on deforestation by consuming cleared land.has inadvertently¶ resulted in the expansion of the agricultural frontier into the Amazon rainforest (Skole et al." ¶ Satellite data from 2004 shows a marked increase in deforestation along the BR-163 road. Thanks to a new variety of soybean developed by Brazilian scientists to flourish in rainforest climate.edu/2766489/Preserving_the_Cerrado_Policy_Reccomendation) Application potential.¶ Skole et al. 1994. savanna. thereby pushing ranchers and slash-and-burn farmers ever deeper into the forest frontier. and has acted as an example for other markets and their cohorts. the USDA (2003b)¶ estimates that 70-90 million ha of Brazil’s existing pasture acreage can be converted to soybean¶ plantations in the future. where they cleared forest for agriculture or cattle ranching (Schneider et al. it is believed that pasture developed in the¶ Amazon will ultimately provide an extensive resource for soy expansion . and transitional forests. cattle farmers have also sought to increase their net acreage in recent¶ years in order to achieve economies of scale and to cash in on strong soybean returns following a¶ substantial multi-year devaluation in the Brazilian currency. These farmers were able to fund the¶ development of new pastures in the Amazon with the profits obtained from the sale of pastures to¶ soybean farmers in the south. “The Cerrado. http://rainforests. History shows that the transfer of land to soybeans from pasture will effectively push cattle farmers further into the Amazon frontier where they will clear forest to open up¶ new pastures. The success of these moratoriums is a result of the increasing levels of monitoring that are becoming available. to enact their own. Funds for new pasture development are¶ primarily obtained through forest clearing. Typically. roads encourage settlement by rural poor who look to the rainforest as free land for subsistence agriculture. 1992. a highway the government has been paving in an effort to help soy farmers from Mato Grosso get their crops to export markets. High soybean prices have also served as an impetus to expanding soybean cultivation. Originally enforced through either on-ground surveys. Driving Factors Behind its Destruction. May 2 of 2011. explains.html#ag) Recently. 1994). similar moratoriums on goods originating from that specific habitat. "Soybean farms cause some forest clearing directly.or .According to USDA (2003b). which accelerate deforestation by other actors . CU graduate (Witt. climate and terrestrial carbon storage¶ (Laurence et al. co-author of a report in Science [21-May-04] and member of Brazil's National Institute for Amazonian Research in Manaus. 2001). and Potential Solutions: A Market-Based Approach”. In fact. Concerns have been¶ raised about deforestation in the Amazon because the region contains 40% of the world’s remaining ¶ tropical rainforest that plays a vital role in regional hydrology. The Amazon Soy Moratorium has grown and developed since it was originally put in place in 2006. This¶ is because government policies. Brazil is on the verge of supplanting the United States as the world's leading exporter of soybeans.academia. Fearnside 2001. which have been identified as drivers behind Amazonian deforestation. and through tropical timber clearing in the Amazon. coupled with improved soybean technologies favoured the expansion of¶ large-scale mechanised soybean farms in Parana.mongabay.com/amazon/amazon_destruction. In the long term.

Considering the effectiveness of ¶ the Amazon’s¶ moratoriums. by eliminating human-error. a similar approach in the¶ Cerrado¶ could be easily implemented. each with varying degrees accuracy. and would likely seesimilar results . as well as the possibility for signatories to free-ride. and software capable of analyzing these images looking for unauthorized change in forested area. and most importantly economically-feasible by reducing both the number of people required for the monitoring.aerial observations to check for compliance. has made the enforcement much more efficient &accurate. the advent of high-resolution satellite imagery. the monitoringprocedures already in place. and their effectiveness in addressing the loss of habitat occurringthere.

Credibility .

shadow. most visibly in the mantra that intervening to curtail Russian and Iranian influence could also strengthen the hands of violent Islamists. ¶ Two and a half years after . Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law and an Assistant Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas-Austin. in most cases the outcomes will substantially implicate American interests. in others it is a transnational religious community or political movement.¶ Where to start? Addressing the four contests can begin with a focus on two countries. a third regional leader. July 16 2013. especially a nuclear Iran. In some cases the main instrument in the contest is force. and allow space for Islamic political participation while guarding against intolerant Islamism. the United States has substantial interests in the outcomes of these four contests. in other cases the stakes are an existential question of whether a particular nation-state can even survive -. ameliorate extremism. throwing its hands up in exasperation at the multiple conflicts and limited options. Meanwhile. the election of Hasan Rouhani presents an opportunity for an invigorated dual-track approach that would reassert American leadership: increased support for the freedom aspirations of the Iranian people and increased pressure on the nuclear program in the form of a credible threat that arrests Tehran's dissemble-anddelay tactics. as is finding levers of influence among a limited set of options.S.and whether the nation-state model itself will continue to be the basic political unit in the region. two historical leaders in the region. Just as the several contests are linked to each other in their negative consequences. as John Hannah highlighted.¶ When considered in the aggregate. In some cases the stakes are a classical realpolitik question of which nation-state will emerge stronger. however. so could positive developments on one front lead to progress on other fronts. Center on History.S. economic. Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Texas at Austin. encouraging pluralism as an antidote to radicalization.¶ In the face of these challenges. the White House's approach to the region seems to have been a combination of "hands up and hands off" -. the new Egyptian government provides an opportune moment for a needed reset to the U. Setting priorities among the various contests is hard. promoting religious freedom across the region would help encourage authentic pluralism.that is. Such renewed initiative with Egypt and Iran. As Michael Singhand Robert Satloff have pointed out. and consequently adopting a hands-off posture. but are taking place simultaneously and often feeding on each other.foreignpolicy. Clements Jr. Barack Obama's administration has relentlessly told itself about all the negatives of engagement in the region and in the process has created a set of self-fulfilling prophecies. relationship with Egypt and thus the region. He is a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States. would also restore U. including preserving its influence as a stabilizing force in the region. Egypt and Iran. In some cases the primary actor is the nation-state.com/posts/2013/07/16/the_middle_easts_4_strategic_contests) These four contests are not discrete and exclusive. Sometimes advancing a strategic equity in one contest can diminish a strategic equity in another contest. credibility with Saudi Arabia.1NC Text: The United States federal government should change their foreign policy in the Middle East by -increasing support for the freedom aspirations of the Iranian people -increasing diplomatic pressure to get Iran to compromise over their nuclear program -promoting religious freedom throughout the Middle East Inboden 13 (Will. and one issue. Such is the case with Syria. In Iran. in other cases it is diplomatic. ideational. religious freedom.¶ The challenges in crafting a coherent strategy in this milieu are manifest. In a few cases the outcomes will merely be local concerns. and will also serve as Executive Director of the William P. "The Middle East's 4 Strategic Contests". even spiritual. Previously he served as Senior Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Council at the White House. the erstwhile Muslim Brotherhood government's overreach and ineptitude significantly damaged the brand equity of Islamism. and preventing regional dominance by other malevolent actors. where all four contests are in acute tension. In Egypt.

but Obama's predisposition in Syria has been to "speak loudly and throw away your stick". That solves credibility—plan can’t solve without fixing Middle Eastern foreign policy Young 13 (Michael. one of America's most authoritative commentators on international relations. and one of America's most authoritative commentators on international relations. and have argued that Washington is not using all the instruments at its disposal to advance its political interests in the region. the second one-time official ill at ease with Obama's disinterest in the Middle East. on the absence of a coherent US policy in the broader Middle East. And past rationales for American passivity now pale in comparison with the compelling American interests at stake in the outcomes of each contest. and the military and intelligence agencies.¶ The first is Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University. former adviser to Richard Holbrooke. Nasr writes that he thought long and hard about writing his book. quoting Anne-Marie Slaughter. the book is a devastating broadside against Obama's approach to a region at the centre of his predecessor's preoccupations. credible diplomacy that garners the respect of our allies and their support when we need it". Nasr writes. the administration's tendency has been to "lead from behind". and addresses the topic squarely from the realist perspective favoured by the president. the late US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. the contours of the multiple contests are now clear. as he did not want it to become a "political bludgeon". is a "patient. "Speak softly and carry a big stick".a tendency Nasr has particularly seen in US policy towards Iran. who based their decisions on how foreign policy issues would play at home. opinion editor of The Daily Star. which speaks volumes about Obama's desire to have his cake and eat it too. Nasr. What they unsuccessfully sought to advance. and is currently dean of John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in DC. who has denounced the administration's policy in Syria. who served as director of policy planning at the US State Department between 2009 and 2011. and has just published The Dispensable Nation. she is concerned that the US risks no longer standing for much in the world.¶ Slaughter is no neoconservative who opposes the president on ideological grounds. have a high profile in media. "Ex-Obama officials lament US president's lack of Middle East policy".¶ Nasr is calling for something that is indeed woefully lacking under Obama: a cohesive foreign policy strategy that integrates and gives meaning to American actions in the Middle East and South Asia. giving undue authority to two groups of people with limited experience in the matter: the president's coterie of political advisers. and Vali Nasr. www. action …"¶ The loser in this context was the foreign policy establishment.¶ Instead.¶ Nasr argues.Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation set an entire region ablaze. Afghanistan and the Arab world .his perennial caution suffocating his ability to exploit valuable political openings.¶ In his introduction. ¶ . she writes. that the Obama administration has concentrated foreign policy decisions in the White House. a former adviser to Richard Holbrooke. came away disillusioned from his experience. Exiled from Iran after the 1979 Islamic revolution. Nasr is currently dean of John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC. Theodore Roosevelt once said. has lamented President Barack Obama's lethargy. Princeton University. Both are respected academics. who offered "swift and dynamic.ae/arts-culture/books/ex-obama-officials-lament-us-presidents-lack-of-middle-eastpolicy) It is revealing that two former Obama administration officials have become critics of current US policy in the Middle East. while expressing grand ambitions . as well as media-attracting.thenational. Whatever his intentions. The president is a man who avoids taking political risks . who time and again found themselves rectifying administration errors. the experienced hands such as Holbrooke and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. former director of policy planning at the US State department. But like Vali Nasr. Obama's administration has seemed without direction. avoiding decisive decisions in crises demanding urgent action. Instead. first. Slaughter. the late US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan.such as working to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that it makes no serious effort to fulfill. What makes the book so effective is that it rises above the limiting neocon versus realist dichotomy prevailing during the George W Bush years. long-range.

namely assassination. He has long been sceptical of America's engagement in overseas wars. regardless of whether it is less dependent on Arab oil than it once was. and the "global war on terrorism". Mr Johnson became a prisoner of the Vietnam war. one of America's most authoritative commentators on international relations. namely that the US appears to be retreating from the Middle East. and Vali Nasr. in its own way. In contrast. usually by relying on drones .thenational. Clinton involved himself deeply in the Bosnian conflict and Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations. impacting on the global economy. On most major issues in the Middle East. a direction Nasr considers potentially "disastrous". It is something else: a withdrawal from the Middle East has. Instead. the product of a view that the US cannot behave as it once did in the region. Obama is not the first president who has sought to refocus away from a foreign policy course or region that he believes has monopolised too much of America's time and money. the president has refused to expend political capital or engage himself personally. www. as the conflict in Syria has shown. He is winding down American involvement in Afghanistan.¶ . as did Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W Bush in 2000. and Bush. with his Great Society programme. Princeton University. the US must bolster regional stability. Lyndon Johnson sought to concentrate on domestic American affairs after 1964. "Obama's disengaged attitude toward the Middle East has served neither American values nor its long-term interests". Obama cannot be bothered with human rights. Too often this outlook has been result of a growing realisation that America's problems cannot be resolved militarily.¶ There has been hubris in Obama's behaviour that considers foreign policy pursuits only as important as the amount of attention the US devotes to them. 2001 attacks. quoting Anne-Marie Slaughter.¶ Obama's confused with American decline. And yet. Oil markets will definitely be affected by conflict in the region. All three were blindsided by reality.¶ Nasr disagrees. we now know. One of his first acts was to accelerate the pullout from Iraq. "Ex-Obama officials lament US president's lack of Middle East policy". He believes that the US will be judged by whether the so-called Arab Spring produces "better Arab states that do right by their people and live up to their responsibility to the international order and its institutions". Yet these processes were not accompanied by greater reliance on diplomacy. embarked on military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. And it seems ludicrous to have to defend the proposition that enhanced Iranian and Hezbollah influence in the region will negatively affect US interests. opinion editor of The Daily Star. that proposition is nonsensical. Obama has sensed the dangerous implications of a conflict that may engulf the region. And yet for much of that time.ae/arts-culture/books/ex-obama-officials-lament-us-presidents-lack-of-middle-eastpolicy) This leads us to the second of Nasr's general arguments. but as Nasr advises. been revolutionary. Achieving this will bring American values and interests into alignment. former adviser to Richard Holbrooke. But this brings out a contradiction in Obama's stance.¶ The war in Syria has turned into a proxy war drawing in American allies and foes. creating a chaotic situation accompanied by terrible human suffering.Solvency—Credibility International diplomacy is failing now because Obama has refused to get involved —CP sends an exclusive signal of engagement that’s necessary for true international success Young 13 (Michael. after the September 11. he has resorted to the least costly of tactics. the late US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. administration officials and their echo chambers in the media insisted there was no benefit in the US getting involved. Two years after the uprising began. especially if it pushes Arabian Gulf states to take self-defensive actions that strengthen militant Islamists and heighten sectarian animosities. an attitude that prevailed during the last decade when American military power was frequently deployed with success. former director of policy planning at the US State department. and is currently dean of John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in DC.

correspondent for the New York Times about the Middle East.¶ “Iraq is a partner of the United States and we are in regular conversations with Iraqi officials about a full range of issues of mutual interest. correspondent for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. the pressure really has an impact on the Iranian economy -.S. Some Western officials remain uncertain whether Iran’s leaders have sought to use Iraq as a conduit or whether the idea is mainly Mr.. Maliki suggested that he was relaying a message from Iranian officials and asserted that Hassan Rouhani. But it doesn't mean that starvation actually gets them to do what [you] want.Solvency—Iran Only diplomacy through compromise solves Iran prolif—plan fails Esfandiari 13 (Golnaz. “From Maliki’s standpoint. would be serious about any discussions with the United States. You know. Western officials said Thursday.nytimes." There's a scenario in which some Iranian leaders may see that as a positive. and decades. including Iran.”¶ Gary Samore. it's easy to keep escalating the pressure. and said that Iraq was prepared to facilitate the negotiations.” said Mr. but pressure is not going to get them to change policy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq told the Obama administration this month that Iran was interested in direct talks with the United States on Iran’s nuclear program.S. on Nuclear Program". Iran’s incoming president.it's kind of like trying to starve somebody. we are open to direct talks with Iran in order to resolve the international community’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.¶ “The Iranians see Maliki as somebody they have some trust in. you put billions of dollars. Yes. Prime Minester of Iraq. So if they could go back home and say. He does not want to be squeezed between Washington and Tehran. the GDP is going to go up. is locked into its policy -. So. and we expect you to just come and sign off the program. he did not disclose precisely whom he was dealing with on the Iranian side. quoting Nuri kamal al-Maliki. although you're running out of things you could do. "Iran Is Said to Want Direct Talks With U. quoting Vali Nasr in an interview. but look -.which is pressure and no real conversation. “As we have repeatedly said. Maliki’s initiative. If what we're asking them is that you're not going to get anything. it's going to relieve pressure. and Patrick Ventrell.¶ State Department officials declined to comment on Mr. and that only proves that starvation works. we got rid of the financial restrictions.” . Iran wants to negotiate with the US—plan provides necessary discussions Gordon 13 (Michael R. a State Department spokesman. Maliki indicated that he had been in touch with confidants of Iran’s supreme leader. you're not going to just hand it over.com/2013/07/26/world/middleeast/iran-is-saidto-want-direct-talks-with-us-on-nuclear-program. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. senior aide on nonproliferation issues at the National Security Council. they're not going to survive that. a State Department spokesman. And yes. according to accounts of the meeting. It's possible that they may consider a deal. because there's no deal on the table . there's going to be more jobs. www. and go through all this hardship. Maliki’s move or what steps the United States might have taken in response. Mr. July 26 2013.html) Vali Nasr: The U. "Vali Nasr: 'Starving Someboyd Won't Make Them Do What You Want'. Samore.” said Patrick Ventrell. So I think the right incentive structure is not on the table.¶ Although Mr. and Gary Samore. it would serve a number of different purposes. they do lose weight. "We're going to suspend the program. said that it was plausible that Iran would use Iraq to send a message about its willingness to discuss nuclear issues.¶ In a meeting in early July with the American ambassador in Baghdad. The pressure works. June 12 2013. who is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard.we got rid of the oil embargo.org/content/iran-elections-interview-vali-nasr-/25015129. and even that would be difficult. I think the thinking in Iran is that they're much more likely to survive sanctions than surrender. American officials have said since the beginning of the Obama administration that they would be open to direct talks with Iran. who served as the senior aide on nonproliferation issues at the National Security Council during President Obama’s first term in office.rferl. www.

American officials visiting the Gulf states tell their hosts. We will not need Persian Gulf oil and gas. Until the pivot.S. With Iran and Russia's backing. and is currently dean of John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in DC. China is building a blue-water navy and has invested in the so-called "string of pearls" strategy of building bases in the Indian Ocean (in places such as Sri Lanka) to protect its sea routes to Africa and the Middle East. SCO is working to limit American diplomatic presence in the region.S. There is already a brisk competition between China and India over which country will dominate the Indian Ocean. It should start with a broader view of Asia. rather than abandoning it at the precise moment that it has achieved new strategic value?¶ American retreat from the Middle East will be welcomed in China as a strategic boon: it will give China a free hand to shape its energy security in west Asia. . China may have worried that American presence could encourage Central Asian states closest to China's western borders to resist Beijing's influence. It is a critical strategic advantage in managing China's rise. one of America's most authoritative commentators on international relations. and founding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).¶ But of equal importance is American naval domination of the Persian Gulf.S. however. At that point.com/china/archive/2013/04/the-us-should-focus-on-asia-all-of-asia/274907/) Even as it develops overland alternatives. In that larger context American presence in the Middle East is an enormous asset that will become more valuable as America's rivalry with China intensifies in the years to come ..Solvency—SCS Establishing US diplomatic presence in the Middle East is key to prevent SCS conflict Nasr 13 (Vali. the late US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. former adviser to Richard Holbrooke. but is also a cultural and ethnic bridge to the Turkic Muslim minority living in China's western-most provinces. a region we have already secured for 60 years.500 U. in which China asserted primacy over the South China Sea and met resistance from several Southeast Asian nations backed by the U. so we will be shrinking our footprint here. and so will the countries we depend on to balance China in its backyard: Japan and South Korea. the source of much of China's future energy supply. control of the high seas. America is focusing on the Straits of Malacca but proclaiming its goal of leaving the Persian Gulf. integrating parts of the Middle East and Central Asia closest to its borders into its economic orbit. Beijing has sought to bolster that influence. The U.. does not seem to be.S. The two Asian powers eye one another with suspicion even as they cooperate to address the menace of piracy. as is happening in Southeast Asia.¶ America has got its Asia strategy wrong. The administration has made it clear that we are now in the business of containing China. America had already announced that it would deploy 2. Should Focus on Asia: All of Asia". but China will. a rival to American power styled as a counterweight to NATO or the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). which gives China a security interest there as well. a fact that Beijing is acutely aware of. one that reflects the strategic interests that bind the eastern and western parts of that continent and drive China's role there. "The U. brought the problem into sharp relief. We may not need Persian Gulf oil. But China is also worried about U. So should we not be doubling down on the Persian Gulf.theatlantic. The Scarborough Shoal row. April 11 2013. www. Marines to Australia and help the Philippines to upgrade its navy.¶ American retreat from the Middle East will be welcomed in China as a strategic boon. This region is not only a source of valuable energy to China.S. which in turn will give Beijing greater leverage in resisting American pressure in the Asia-Pacific.

which. and squeezes the energy lifeline of America's Asian allies. before faulting the Obama administration for failing to quite understand what this means. . much hailed by American officials as a necessary move away from the Middle East to a more vital region of the world.ae/arts-culture/books/ex-obama-officials-lament-us-presidents-lack-of-middle-eastpolicy) Nasr reserves his last chapter for a stimulating discussion of what he views as the central role of the Middle East in the growing Chinese-American rivalry.¶ But Obama has too often spoken of US limitations to be a decisive defender of America's global pre-eminence. and Vali Nasr. Nasr writes: "A retreat from the Middle East will not free us to deal with China. he warns. one of America's most authoritative commentators on international relations.¶ Commenting on the Obama administration's "pivot to Asia". www. is an all-powerful China that controls gas and oil supplies to Asia from the Gulf."¶ The chapter is an effort to engage in strategic thinking of the kind Nasr did not see during his days in government. He has pursued the politics of neglect. it will constrain us in managing the competition. unlike the US. He presents an often fascinating rundown of the strategic interests of China. writes Nasr. The US-China competition is about "global power".Internal NB—China Middle-East diplomacy prevents a war with China over global power and energy Young 13 (Michael. Whatever he does wrong. "Ex-Obama officials lament US president's lack of Middle East policy". What may emerge.thenational. quoting Anne-Marie Slaughter. other countries will usually pay for. But an American president doesn't have the luxury of aloofness. opinion editor of The Daily Star. Princeton University. the late US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. former director of policy planning at the US State department. former adviser to Richard Holbrooke. convinced that this will make America stronger. and is currently dean of John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in DC. has approached the Middle East with a long-term game plan to serve its geopolitical ambitions and energy needs.

Cuban Economy .

motivating the Cuban people to rise up against their government and establish a multiparty liberal democracy. it has failed to achieve its goal. an expert on international trade and investment laws explained. The embargo and its byzantine sanctions prevent U. are now playing an important supporting role. sanctions are premised on the belief that strangling Cuba‟s economy will lead the system to fail. citizens to travel to Cuba. sanctions became more restrictive. . Although repeal of the statutory bar against tourist travel to the island would require an Act of Congress.1NC Shell CP – The Executive Branch of the United States should. In addition to inflicting pain on the people we are ostensibly trying to help. the sanctions could even prompt a mass exodus out of Cuba. Second.S. American policy missed the chance to align itself with the hu manitarian interests of Cubans and their leadership muddled through. Twenty years ago. While the fate of Cuba‟s economic reforms rests primarily with the government and the Cuban people.clarify remittance expansion rules CP leads to investment in Cuba that solves their economy Laverty ’11 [2011.S. policy makers should acknowledge that Cuba‟s reforms are real. U. President Obama could use his executive authority to open and expand categories of opportunities for Americans to visit Cuba.S. it is inhumane and counter-productive. putting the stability of the Caribbean at risk.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve. China and Venezuela—who are still in Cuba today. unlikely in this political climate. a series of logical steps could then follow. By loosening restrictions on travel and remittances.acknowledge that current reforms in Cuba are real and effective . Instead. we ceded the playing field to allies and competitors—Spain and Brazil. that this program opens the way to a greater role for the market.pdf] U. President Obama and other U. But the United States can do more. President Obama mobilized the financial capital and support of a good portion of the Cuban American community on behalf of Cuba‟s economic revival. the President still has room under the current legal framework to significantly expand opportunities for legal travel to Cuba. because we want the Cuban people to succeed. . “Although „tourist travel‟ remains prohibited by statute. amidst the wreckage of the Special Period.S. For example. investing and trying to help its economy grow. our ambivalence plays into the hands of hardliners in Cuba who oppose reform or rapprochement with the United States. Congress and the Executive Branch tightened sanctions with the hope of capitalizing on Cuba‟s difficulties. As U. After five decades. If this were a core principle of our democratic policy. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. the President could authorize travel for purposes of professional meetings with Cuban architects. and the changes are likely to exact great hardships on the Cuban people. the existing category of travel for „professional meetings‟ could be broadened to include a range of new authorizations for participation in meetings. Cubans lack cash and credit to make full use of their newly granted right to form businesses. banks and developers from financing investments in Cuba. Until that all happens.128 As Stephen Propst. actions taken by President Obama. There are additional executive decisions the president can take to ease the flow of financing to Cuba and to spur demand for the activities the emerging private sector is performing.loosen restrictions on US citizens to travel to Cuba . For example. the president could further loosen restrictions on U. We have a new opportunity to be seen by Cuba‟s people and its future leaders supporting their efforts to build a new economy and to help the Cuban people lead more prosperous lives. First. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas.S. They should also acknowledge that the reforms represent an important beginning. however limited.S. … If combined with additional authorizations for the exchange of services with small private businesses in Cuba. The greatest contribution our country can make now is to demonstrate we want the reforms to succeed.

000 per year each.”129 According to this analysis. President Obama has said any American is permitted to send remittances to an unlimited number of qualified Cubans of up to $2. for example. market and advance the humanitarian goals of our policy. investment.S. government allows Cuban recipients to seek or aggregate remittances from U.130) Their paper also called for a $50 million fund for rotating micro-loans and other measures. if they could. Similarly. The regulation has no mechanism to open the door to Americans without family ties who wish to contribute remittances to Cubans they do not know and. citizens. no means for accountability exists for U. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas.S. no demonstrated—but about whether the system. musicians. We also encourage the Executive Branch to clarify remittance expansion rules established in January 2011. President Obama can. travel industry to the international human rights community that travel to Cuba should be expanded: travel is a constitutional right of U. and business-related travel for authorized activities such as telecommunications.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve. private foundations doing research. Neither does the rule say whether the U.S. informational materials. individuals and institutions to contract with Cuban scholars.S. or how much latitude managers will have to make productivity decisions. citizens to see if their donations were making a difference. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. but guidelines for sending remittances to non-family members are vague and need to be better defined. For Cuba’s citizens.S. There is a broad consensus extending from the U. it provides a source of profits and jobs for small businesses. musicians.S.S. will allow entrepreneurial and economically rational decisions to be made .pdf+ Cuba needs foreign exchange to import capital goods from abroad. Today. persons engaged in humanitarian activities. The CSG proposed allowing U.131 Investment in the economy is key Laverty ’11 [2011. and artists for their work and allowing independent farms and cooperatives to export agriculture products from Cuba (Obama granted a similar exception to sanctions on North Korea in 2010 for importation of North Korean beer. He could also broaden the licensing for advisors from firms who could assist the Cubans in safe drilling and environmental protection as Cuba explores for oil in the Gulf of Mexico (as CDA recommended in the 21st Century Report on energy). and agriculture clear direction exists for large businesses on questions such as production.S. Without it. and some marketing. consultants and others. athletes who want to attend international sports competitions in Cuba. the island cannot create wealth beyond the retail sector in ways that utilize Cubans and newly-legalized small businesses . Experts tell us this is not a question of private versus public—as reforms in China have reforms have yet to reduce Cuba‟s import bill. no clear avenue to increased foreign exchange is open. order general licenses provided to freelance journalists.artists. And answers are also needed from the Cuban government—it could identify recipient institutions which could distribute remittances to Cubans in need. professional researchers. A report released this year by the Cuba Study Group (CSG) suggests a number of additional steps that would allow Cuban goods to legally enter the U. however it is constructed. citizens and has the added virtue of providing U. businesses broad opportunities.

In 1978— the first year of the Chinese “open-door policies” credited with fueling its unprecedented economic growth—there were only 140. some universally-accepted truths about small and microenterprise development: onerous bureaucratic hurdles to business formation or formalization. By 2005. To overcome these problems. Cuba is not China.8 percent of the national GDP.org/index.org/index. But there is ample precedent regarding both the timing and types of reforms needed to spur small and microenterprise creation and on the role that multilateral organizations.S. family members to provide seed capital . however.000 businesses operated by self-employed entrepreneurs in China. the rule of law and a market-based economy. burdensome taxation. There are. policies could affect the economic reform process in Cuba. The Cuba Study Group (CSG) is a non-profit. Within months. In 2000. However. the true scope of authorized activities will become clear as individuals and organizations take advantage of the new provisions to support micro and small businesses in Cuba. Vietnam or Singapore—and countries in crisis.6 million enterprises. non-partisan organization comprised of business and community leaders of Cuban descent who share a common interest and vision of a free and prosperous Cuba. The Cuba Study Group (CSG) is a non-profit. the Obama Administration acknowledged that U. the rule of law and a market-based economy. that number had surged to 24. This holds true not only in traditionally market-driven economies. private enterprises (including companies in which the government holds a minority stake) contribute about 70 percent to China‟s GDP. The CSG mission is to facilitate a peaceful reunification of the Cuban nation that would lead to a free and open society with respect for human rights. The CSG mission is to facilitate a peaceful reunification of the Cuban nation that would lead to a free and open society with respect for human rights. more can be done by both the president and the Congress to further remove obstacles to the economic reform process. international aid organizations and international NGOs can play.cfm/files/serve?File_id=0fbe7312-0bcc-4369-8c1eb4f1680f1837] Small businesses and self-employment are considered an invaluable component of economic growth and job creation in countries around the world. And the vast numbers of variables that drive growth in an y economy make cross-country comparisons difficult. that proportion had grown to nearly 65 percent. since the late 1980s. “Supporting Small Business in Cuba: Recommendations for Private and Public Sector Leaders.” http://www. non-partisan organization comprised of business and community leaders of Cuban descent who share a common interest and vision of a free and prosperous Cuba. but also in Communist countries with economies long dominated by the state. the average annual growth in the number of small businesses operating in China has exceeded 30 percent. In fact. No single path of reform may be appropriate for Cuba. According to the most recent estimates.000 limit on family remittances that can be carried to Cuba by authorized travelers and/or expand the types of goods that families may legally take to Cuba to support micro entrepreneurs.S. China‟s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the private sector accounted for about 42.cubastudygroup. Removing these specific restriction on the economy solve CSG ’11 [April/2011. employing 49 million Chinese. lack of capital and excessive government meddling in price determination all deter and hurt entrepreneurs. Modify Remittance and Export Limitations: Increase the $3. Fewer limitations in these areas will make it easier for U.” http://www.cfm/files/serve?File_id=0fbe7312-0bcc-4369-8c1eb4f1680f1837] B y loosening restrictions on remittances and travel to Cuba.Solvency Investment is key to solving Cuba’s economy CSG ’11 [April/2011. like Bolivia in the 1980s—have taken important legal and regulatory steps to foster the creation and success of small and microenterprises. But. countries in transition like China. “Supporting Small Business in Cuba: Recommendations for Private and Public Sector Leaders. By 2005. the contribution of private enterprise to China‟s GDP has also increased.cubastudygroup. With this growth.

such as artisans or farmers.-based academic institutions to open accounts in Cuban banks with funds to support their educational programs in Cuba.and in-kind contributions for start-ups. persons and institutions to pay individual Cuban scholars.S. Authorize Imports of Certain Goods and Services from Cuba: The president could authorize the importation of limited types of Cuban-origin goods under general or specific licenses. particularly when such authorizations could be justified as providing support for the Cuban people or democratic change in Cuba. and authorize a greater scope of activities such as recording. The regulations will also alow U. would support those enterprises and make trade in such products more reciprocal. . distribution. publication.S. For example.S. New licenses could extend to additional groups. musicians and artists for their works. Authorize Travel by General License for NGOs and Allow Them to Open Cuban Bank Accounts: The January 28 regulations will allow U. A similar license for foundations and NGOs whose mission involves support for micro and small businesses would further remove obstacles. full-and part-time university staff to travel to Cuba by general license. Establish New Licenses for the Provision of Services to Entrepreneurs: The president could build on existing authorizations that allow U. etc. authorizing imports to the United States of agricultural products from independent farms and cooperatives in Cuba.

an accountant with legal skills to meet all regulations. such as building a food processing factory. low productivity. Many will continue to rely on support from relatives abroad and do jobs that are not a part of the formal economy to get by. and tourism flows. and bring the Cuban people along. however.000 Cuban workers in the next few years. But so far the reforms envisioned will do little to address Cuba’s fundamental economic problems in the productive structure of the Cuban economy: inefficiency. Enterprises like this can be food suppliers to the paladars and motivate greater competition. a raw material food buyer. T he reforms announced and implemented to date are unlikely to be sufficient to overcome all of Cuba’s economic problems . Within Cuba‟s control. or the risk that Venezuela‟s voters or their president‟s poor health will sever the lifeline of petroleum that flows from Caracas to Havana. Not every Cuban has the skill to be self-employed or to work in an enterprise created and run by others. and antiquated capital stock. during a period that is likely to be painful and uncertain. Dr. the prospects for success should not be exaggerated . Dr. Ritter among others to conclude that there is a low probability of sufficient job creation by the micro-enterprise and cooperative sectors to absorb 1. nickel prices. an economist at the Center for American Progress. and that further liberalization will be necessary. The [Cuban] national country still doesn‟t have the incentives to motivate a to invest $50. yet it will have a larger. For example.pdf+ There are game-changing events outside of Cuba‟s control that can negatively affect the future success of the reforms. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas. she will need to hire cooking experts. Even though Cubans have historically learned entrepreneurial skills just to make ends meet. But. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. Adam Hersh. is whether the program can substantively achieve the ambitious goals set out by the Guidelines. yet these activities have severe limitations. and a scholar of economic transitions in China and Vietnam. there are provisions to establish a paladar.Reforms in Cuba Fail Reforms will inevitably fail Laverty ’11 [2011. and whether the leadership will see the process through.”117 Such findings have led Dr. health quality testers. marketing officials.”11 . “The 178 [licensed] activities pertain predominantly to the service industry.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve. they still face problems—identified by observers including the Cuba Study Group. Not every Cuban who is laid-off will be able to form his or her own business or find alternative employment. It is critically important that Cuba is liberalizing the rules. but not a food manufacturing enterprise.116 Dr. Archibald Ritter. global fluctuations in food prices. Manuel Orozco and others—that make forming a business and running it profitably really difficult.000.115 Most lack the capital or training required to start or manage such businesses. Cuba‟s challenge will be to tackle this next stage of reform while preserving its high level of development in health and education. If an entrepreneur wants to establish a manufacturing business in the food sector. Orozco explained. told CDA: “The reforms proposed with respect to layoffs and self-employment and the end to the libreta are economically important … and likely to deliver general welfare benefits through improved access to goods and services. Cuba‟s economic reforms cannot insulate the island from hurricanes.118 More broadly.000 … to carry out such an enterprise. multiplying effect than a paladar.

• Revising existing general and specific license provisions to ease or eliminate current limitations and conditions applicable to travel and remittances to Cuba. Stephen Propst's practice focuses on U. export control laws. Stephen also provides legal and policy advice with respect to legislative initiatives in the U. the President arguably has sufficient legal authority to make the following types of additional changes to the current U. • Authorizing imports of certain goods and services from Cuba. export control laws. statutory and regulatory provisions that empower the President and the responsible executive branch agencies to grant exceptions to the sanctions through executive actions. In fact. where Congress has explicitly granted discretion to the President under existing statutes. economic sanctions against Cuba and restricted the President‟s authority to suspend or terminate those sanctions until a “transition government” is in power in Cuba.S.pdf] . He provides firm clients with advice and representation before the U. foreign policy objectives recognized by Congress. and Commerce. Treasury. “Presidential Authority to Modify Economic Sanctions Against Cuba. “Presidential Authority to Modify Economic Sanctions Against Cuba. regulations and licenses.S.AT Links to Politics Obama can do it unilaterally – no P/C used Propst ‟11 [2/15/11. ports of vessels engaged in trade with Cuba.” http://www. and international trade policy issues. Travel restrictions can specifically be done by the president Propst ‟11 [2/15/11. Congress has codified the comprehensive U. Congress that affect international trade matters. as well as the International Trade Commission. The authority is particularly broad in certain areas. economic sanctions. He provides firm clients with advice and representation before the U.S. Bush and Obama have each exercised this authority to ease the scope of restrictions applicable to Cuba. economic sanctions. Notwithstanding these statutory requirements . and international trade policy issues. • Establishing a new general license for the provision of services to Cuba (along the same lines as the March 2010 revision that authorized services to facilitate Internet communications). Modifying current export control regulations to establish more favorable licensing policies for additional categories of items that may be exported under specific licenses. Departments of State. such as telecommunications-related transactions and humanitarian donations. policy objectives. Departments of State. financial institutions (but subject to statutory restrictions on the extension of credit for transactions involving “confiscated property”). including the provision of humanitarian support for the Cuban people and the promotion of democratic reforms. This executive authority to modify the Cuba sanctions is grounded in Constitutional. without action or approval by Congress.hoganlovells. confirmed or advised by U. Stephen also provides legal and policy advice with respect to legislative initiatives in the U. the President maintains broad authority and discretion to significantly ease specific provisions of the Cuba sanctions regime in support of particular U.S.pdf] Through a complex series of federal statutes. Stephen Propst's practice focuses on U. Congress that affect international trade matters. • Establishing additional license exceptions for exports of U.-origin goods to Cuba.S.S. Presidents Clinton.S.com/files/Publication/57d34e80-51b8-4ee0-ae64-750f65ee7642/Preview/PublicationAttachment/55896b90-840a42bf-8744-752a7a206333/Cuba%20Aritcle%20FINAL. and • Expanding the availability of existing license exceptions to cover additional categories of exports and easing conditions and limitations on the use of those exceptions. Treasury.hoganlovells.S. • Permitting payment for authorized transactions with Cuba (except sales of agricultural commodities or products) to be financed through letters of credit or other financing arrangements issued.S. sanctions against Cuba: • Establishing “general licenses” for existing categories of travel to Cuba that are currently authorized only by specific licenses. Consistent with the relevant statutory authorities and restrictions.S.S. as well as statutory statements of U. since Congress codified of the Cuba sanctions in 1996.” http://www. and Commerce.S.com/files/Publication/57d34e80-51b8-4ee0-ae64-750f65ee7642/Preview/PublicationAttachment/55896b90-840a42bf-8744-752a7a206333/Cuba%20Aritcle%20FINAL. as well as the International Trade Commission.S. • Expanding existing categories of authorized travel to include new travel provisions (along the same lines as the new authorization announced on January 14. 2011 for travel related to non-academic clinics and workshops in Cuba). • Establishing a general license for entry into U.

such as medical and health-related projects. which must be open for attendance and.92 • Private foundations and research or educational institutes with established interest in international relations to collect information related to Cuba for noncommercial purposes.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve. when his administration revised the CACR to authorize certain types of family. participation by the Cuban public and any profits must be donated to independent Cuban NGOs or U.89 • Amateur and semiprofessional athletes selected by U. in relevant situations. participation by the Cuban public. we believe that the political dynamic of the Cuban American community has already shifted —many have moved from supporting isolation and aggression toward the island‟s government to building on family ties and helping their relatives prosper and live more autonomous lives in Cuba‟s new economic environment.pdf+ Nevertheless. The categories of travelers that currently require specific licenses.S. projects involving non-formal educational training. where relevant. projects related to agriculture and rural development. and projects to meet basic human needs. sales negotiation. for participation in public performances. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. or related to. and activities of individuals and NGOs that promote independent activity intended to strengthen civil society in Cuba. sports federations to participate in competitions under the auspices of international sports federations. but that could be changed to general licenses include: • Freelance journalists. projects suitable for development of small-scale enterprise. community-based grassroots projects.90 • Recognized human rights organizations.91 • Persons engaged in humanitarian projects in. or servicing of exports to Cuba authorized by the Commerce Department (beyond those travel-related transactions already authorized pursuant to general licenses).-based charities. activities of independent organizations designed to promote the transition to democracy. accompanied delivery. The President has discretion to modify those provisions of the CACR to authorize those categories of travel pursuant to general licenses. Cuba (and not otherwise covered by the CACR). . or transmission of information or informational materials. such that travelers would not be required to obtain specific written authorization before traveling. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas. and other competitions and exhibitions. importation. where the competition is open for attendance and. President Obama made this type of change in 2009 and again in 2011.88 • Professional researchers undertaking research or for professionals attending professional meetings and not qualifying for the general license.95 CP popular with Cuba Laverty ’11 [2011. environmental projects.93 Persons engaged in travel-related transactions incident to the exportation.94 and • Persons involved in travel-related transactions in connection with the marketing. athletic.The CACR currently require specific licenses issued by OFAC in order to engage in a number of categories of non-tourist travel. educational and religious travel by general licenses rather than by specific licenses.S.

Drug Trafficking .

to approve measures legalizing and regulating marijuana similar to alcohol.1NC Solvency Advocate Normative Solvency Advocate DPA ‘13 [The Drug Policy Alliance (DPA) is the nation's leading organization promoting drug policies that are grounded in science. State and local governments would acquire significant new sources of tax revenue from regulating marijuana sales. Colorado and Washington became the first U. In 2012.and the first political jurisdictions anywhere in the world -.S. and fails to curb youth access.” http://www. Scarce law enforcement resources that could be better used to protect public safety would be preserved while reducing corrections and court costs. build coalitions and raise funds. compassion. sponsors massive levels of violence and corruption. We seek to enact change on the state and federal level through ongoing legislative efforts and through high-profile ballot initiatives in upcoming election cycles. The criminalization of marijuana use disproportionately harms young people and people of color. Legalizing and regulating marijuana will bring the nation's largest cash crop under the rule of law.org/marijuana-legalization-and-regulation] Marijuana should be removed from the criminal justice system and regulated in a manner similar to alcohol and tobacco. health and human rights. DPA helped lead the historic campaign in 2010 to support Proposition 19 in California. “Marijuana Legalization and Regulation. states -.drugpolicy. The Drug Policy Alliance advocates marijuana legalization through a well-regulated market for marijuana production and distribution. DPA worked closely with local and national allies to draft these initiatives. creating jobs and economic opportunities in the formal economy instead of the illicit market. .

and Mexico generated headlines in 2009 by jointly declaring that "the war on drugs has failed" and calling for decriminalization of marijuana.and they want to do it at the Summit. and Colombia. to pursue an aggressive. Rather. As Perez explained recently in advance of a Central American conference on alternative drug strategy sponsored by his administration in Antigua.' a number of Latin American leaders say they're ready to discuss major shifts in regional anti-drug policy . Adam Siegel is a researcher in Eurasia Group's Latin America practice. it is assumed.traffickers will lose if they cease to be profitable. “America’s drug war partners are speaking their minds. I will welcome it. Among them: Mexico's Felipe Calderon. Costa Rica's Laura Chinchilla. but the commentary was dismissed in some quarters as an easy argument to make for men no longer politically accountable as heads of state. So when an ex-military general like Perez or a former defense minister like Santos talks about decriminalization. according to the Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission. . and the world thinks that's the solution. Costa Rica.S. The former presidents of Brazil. Argentina's Cristina Kirchner.com/posts/2012/03/27/america_s_drug_war_partners_are_speaking_their _minds?wp_login_redirect=0] Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos is likely to open the Sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena next month with a standard welcome for Barack Obama and the 33 other leaders of the Western Hemisphere.S. it's not because they care so much about personal liberties.nods to the global reach of Latin America's drug trafficking organizations. and Europe).” http://eurasia. but maybe there's a more fitting greeting for the U. his idea of decriminalization is clear: create a legal framework to make the production and transport of cocaine legal... desire for a debate that includes producers and consumers (who are concentrated in the U. while the total number of convictions for personal drug possession in Guatemala and Argentina combined was just 161 in 2009. indeed." After decades of partnering with the U. underscoring the This distinction is important. Guatemala's Otto Perez Molina.. several sitting Latin American leaders (on both the left and right) have called for candid debate of current drug policy.S. Colombia." Santos' caveat -"[if] the world thinks that's the solution" -.who told Britain's The Observer last year that "A new approach should try and take away the violent profit that comes with drug trafficking. Since then. president: "This is an intervention. personal consumption of drugs like marijuana and cocaine is already technically decriminalized in Mexico. where the United States will have no choice but to talk up the merits of the prohibition policies it has long favored. Some of them have begun talk of "decriminalization" -. often controversial 'war on drugs. they have one major goal in mind: choking off the resources that fuel drug cartels and the violence they practice.. would reduce the imperative of traffickers to corrupt public officials and their need to use violence against both governments and rivals for access to the best trafficking routes. and Colombia's Santos -. If that means legalizing. "drugs are expensive precisely because they are prohibited. Bringing the business of this $37 billion industry out into the open. however." While no detailed proposal is yet on the table.AT Latin American Demand Latin American countries are in the process of legalization now Siegel ’12 *3/27/12.foreignpolicy. at least throughout Central America -.a region through which approximately 80 percent of the cocaine heading to the United States stops.

uk/features/8813601/stop-the-drugs-war/] There‟s the question: for what? Felipe Calderon was once convinced he had the answer: to crack down on the kingpins. the taboos. restore moral order. Colorado and Washington started it. He This new legislation . How have they managed this? Because they came from the army. Maria was right: no one expected Peña Nieto to change much of anything. because to legali se drugs in Mexico would be to push the fight alarmingly close to their border. and began to show their rivals the true meaning of brutality. and had been shot at as a result. he could not just follow the new rules. who has asked the question: if fighting doesn‟t work. “Stop the drugs war Legalisation is Mexico’s only hope. you can see Mexico requires a dramatic step. This has been the status quo for the past few decades. more severed heads dumped on soon became clear even to Calderon that the ‘war on drugs’ was unwinnable. it’s in the States .AT Mexico Reforms Solve Nothing Meixco can do can solve – legalization in the US is the only solution Wakefield ’13 [1/12/13. But then. The Zetas specialise in the butchering of children. It does. even as a tourist there. leaving clumps of traumatised Texan tourists shivering under canteen tables. It‟s certainly one America would oppose with every star and stripe. For as long as there are American junkies. and Oregon. They were trained by American and Israeli special forces in intimidation. The Zetas still recruit from Mexico‟s special forces and from the Guatemalan equivalent. The cartels would be forced above ground. which ruled Mexico for most of the past century. though one that Peña Nieto might not welcome. It cause of the mayhem is not in Mexico. for the simple reason that the beaches. ambushing and marksmanship. and discuss legalisation. Rhode Island. just to fight the drug gangs. but now he says the price paid in human lives is too high. but perhaps could follow the lead of President Otto Pérez Molina of Guatemala.spectator. If the Mexican president is brave enough. Take this little tangle. They have been phenomenally successful. said one the rules of the game’. the Kaibiles. In 2010 they bit off the hand that fed them. having spent billions on Calderon‟s daft crusade.” http://www. But Calderon‟s war had a pretty clear outcome: the bad guys won . To say that the police aren‟t effective is an almost comic understatement . then skipped off scot-free. mary Wakefield is a writer for the Spectator. But late last year. more corpses carved up and left on busy streets for kids to gawp at. „ changes change the game. Why not legalise drugs? It wouldn‟t be giving up.‟ Perhaps it sounds like a dramatic step. The more cash America puts into training the Mexican army. vowing never to leave Dallas again. Last year. Terminal 2. and its approach to the cartels has been a blind eye. Mexico will pay the blood price for their addiction. They are often also described as the paramilitary wing of the older Gulf Cartel. Capos were shot. So there aren‟t really many other alternatives. and it also creates an opportunity. then I‟d like to introduce you to Los Zetas. it would be winning without fighting — the best. it‟s that it‟s impossible to tell the difference. The drug-running cops opened fire. extortion. Three police officers who suspected another three of drug-smuggling went (they say) to make an arrest. He belongs to the PRI — the Institutional Revolutionary Party. the big money would be in legitimate . California is keen to follow suit. rape. just recently overtaking the famous Sinaloa cartel and dominating the country. last month voted to legalise cannabis in some states (if the federal government gives them the OK). formed their own gang. They had been about to expose all the other cops as drugsmugglers. why not legalise drugs instead? Molina is a former head of the intelligence services who has himself tried the iron-fist approach to gangs. there was a shootout in the food court of Mexico City airport. there was a new twist: America. kidnap. so why should Mexico bust a gut keeping it from getting to America. Maine and Vermont aren‟t far behind. killed the good cops. the happier the Zetas are. from Mexico‟s equivalent of the SAS. but that hasn‟t been true for a while. If you think perhaps the answer to Mexico‟s troubles is a tougher army. cleverest way. and as far as I could tell on my Mexican adventure last year. It later turned out that the runaway cops were in fact the good guys. „It‟s time to end the myths. All 348 airport cops were later re-shuffled to other states. Then they upped and formed one. purring over all the potential new recruits. It creates an irony that the Mexican president is puzzling over: some 40 per cent of the cartels‟ business is selling cannabis across the border. It‟s not just that there are good cops and bad cops.co. but their cartels just split and proliferated: more gang warfare. in June. if it‟s legal there? of Peña Nieto‟s advisers cautiously.

. and who knows. like Rosario Reta (opposite). would no longer be required. the police might once again become an effective force.business. The psychos.

” http://www. This is not a frustrating is just a fact. especially the police forces in charge of enforcing law and order.drogasedemocracia. the destruction of drug production in one territory is quickly replaced by the increase of drug production in another. Confronted with a situation that is growing worse by the day.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/07/latin-america-drugs-nightmare] So. argues the president of Guatemala. A realistic evaluation indicates that: Latin America remains the major global exporter of cocaine and cannabis. the judicial system. Over the past decades we have witnessed: A rise in organized crime caused both by the international narcotics trade and by the growing control exercised by criminal groups over domestic markets and territories. The causes for drug consumption seem to fact. the political system and. The corruption of public servants. The in-depth revision of current drug policies is even more urgent in Latin America in light of their enormous human and social costs and threats to democratic institutions. “We have to find new solutions to Latin America's drugs nightmare Narcotics should be legally available – in a highly regulated market. Otto Perez Molina is the president of Guatamala. as well as the proliferation of the linkages between them.2NC – War on Drugs Fail Prohibition fails – new drugs pop out everywhere Molina ’12 *4/7/12. We are farther than ever from the announced goal of eradicating drugs.co.” http://www. and is developing the capacity to produce synthetic drugs. The war on drugs have failed – prohibition will never work Sorj *“Drugs and Democracy – toward a paradigm shift – Statement by the Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy.pdf+ Violence and the organized crime associated with the narcotics trade are critical problems in Latin America today. as reflected in the infiltration of democratic institutions by organized crime. as do the incentives for drug production . It multiply over time. in particular. Prohibitionist policies based on the eradication of production and on the disruption of drug flows as well as on the criminalization of consumption have not yielded the expected results . The levels of drug consumption continue to grow in Latin America while there is a tendency toward stabilization in North America and Europe. . governments. In the same vein. A growth in unacceptable levels of drug-related violence affecting the whole of society and. decades of big arrests and the seizure of tons of drugs and yet consumption and production of damaging substances are booming.org/Arquivos/declaracao_ingles_site. it is imperative to rectify the “war on drugs” strategy pursued in the region over the past 30 years. has become a growing producer of opium and heroin.guardian. the poor and the young. The fall in the consumption of one drug is rapidly undermined by the rise in demand for another. The criminalization of politics and the politicization of crime.

malt liquor. when they may legally purchase it (sales limited to certain hours of the day). etc). prescription drugs) The alcohol model of regulation: Commercial production is limited to licensed producers (though non-retail. and the potency of the product is made publicly available to the consumer Retail sale of the product is limited to state licensed distributors (liquor stores. where they may legally purchase it (package store. tobacco. etc. The National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws. and how much they may purchase at one time (bars/restaurants may not legally service patrons who are visibly intoxicated. restaurants. depending on the substance being regulated these regulations can be very loose (apples. bars. altogether (dry counties) . etc. states like Pennsylvania limit how much alcohol a patron may purchase at a licensed store.). The state imposes strict regulations prohibiting use in public (no open container in public parks. or in an automobile) and/or furnishing the product to minors The state imposes strict regulations limiting the commercial advertising of the product (limits have been imposed on the type of marketing and where such marketing may appear) States and counties retain the right to revoke the retail sale of the product. liquor store.pdf] Defining Marijuana Legalization/Regulation What would marijuana regulation look like? There are many models of regulation. “Real World Ramifications of Cannabis Legalization and Decriminalization.org/pdf_files/NORML_Real_World_Ramifications_Legalization. etc. or certain types of alcohol (grain alcohol.2NC AT No Model Regulation isn’t that hard NORML ’10 *3/5/10.) The state imposes strict controls on who may obtain the product (no minors). or beaches. tomatoes) or very strict (alcohol.). home production is also allowed) Quality control and potency is regulated by the state.” http://norml. package stores.

Shortly after the U. .” But leaders from across Latin America responded within days of the Colorado and Washington vote. elections.com. is expected to be concluded in June.” http://world. which has cost Mexico so much. The measure. They also called on the Organization of American States (OAS) to study the impact of current drug policy in the region.2NC Solves Relations CP solves Latin American relations – all leaders want this Serrano ‘13 *1/7/13.N. said the U. Belize and Costa Rica.S.com/2013/01/07/u-s-marijuana-laws-ricochet-through-latinamerica/] President Obama has yet to deliver a clear response to the November decision by Colorado and Washington to legalize recreational marijuana use — asked whether the government would enforce federal laws that override the verdict of those states‟ referendums. along with leaders from Honduras. Aflonso Serrano is a Senior Editor at Time. That OAS review. former Mexican President Felipe Calderón. is modeled on the Washington State law and would put the federal government in charge of marijuana production. elections. “Everyone is asking.S. Marijuana Laws Ricochet Through Latin America. Belaunzarán joins a growing list of Latin American leaders calling for a change in the drug-war paradigm — one that considers drug decriminalization and legalization as alternatives to the U.-led prohibitionist model. demanding a review of drug-war policies that have mired the region in violence. “U. Belaunzarán tells TIME. regulation and sales. by trying to keep this substance from going to a country where it‟s already regulated and permitted?” says Fernando Belaunzarán.time. The Congressman says he expects the lower house to convene public hearings on marijuana legalization by May 2013. the enforcement of which has helped turn swathes of Latin America into the world‟s most violent regions. a Congressman from Mexico‟s opposition Democratic Revolutionary Party who introduced a marijuana legalization measure in the legislature a week after the U. well under way. General Assembly should hold a special session on drug prohibition by 2015. What sense does it make to keep up such an intense confrontation.S. he answered simply that he has “bigger fish to fry.S.S. Latin American decisionmakers are now openly questioning why they should continue to sacrifice police and soldiers to enforce drug laws when legal markets for marijuana now exist in the U.

he added.” are doing more harm than good in certain places.html] In his turn. is that legalization is not the answer. “I . and “could be just as corrupting if not more corrupting then the status quo.nytimes.” Drug operations could come to “dominate certain countries if they were allowed to operate legally without any constraint. and my administration‟s position.” But.com/2012/04/15/world/americas/obama-says-legalization-is-not-the-answer-on-drugs.” http://www. “I think it is entirely legitimate to have a conversation about whether the laws in place are ones that personally. Jackie Calmes is a writer for the New York Times.” he said. Mr.AT Links to Ptx Obama would not tie himself to the CP Calmes ‟12 [4/14/12. “Obama Says Legalization Is Not the Answer on Drugs. Obama said.

Mexican Economy .

1NC
Text: Mexico should adopt secondary laws to enforce the enactment of the constitutional reform of telecommunications, radio broadcasting, and economic competition. Solves Mexico’s economy O'Neill 13
(Shannon K., Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, "Economic Change on Mexico's Horizon", March 25 2013, www.cfr.org/mexico/economic-change-mexicos-horizon/p30311) President Peña Nieto's economic reforms are targeting the big empires of the country's telecommunications sector. Can you give some background on the industry? What is his goal in this sector?¶ For the last twenty plus years, Mexico's telecommunications industry has been basically in the hands of Carlos Slim. Whether it's Telmex, which is fixed line, or Telcel, which is mobile, his companies have controlled 70 to 80 percent of the market. By all independent accounts, this has had huge costs for Mexico's economy , particularly for consumers and businesses, which pay much higher rates for their telephone needs.¶ The other big cost is underinvestment in the telecoms sector . When you look at Mexico vis-à-vis other OECD countries, as well as its emerging market peers—China or Korea or Brazil—Mexico falls behind in telecom infrastructure investment. This includes new types of connections, such as Internet and broadband. Indeed, by some measures, the country even falls behind places likes Zimbabwe and Serbia. That lack of access to the digital age has real costs for businesses and innovation.¶ The Televisa broadcaster is another one of the empires being targeted by these reforms.

Bill won’t be successful until secondary laws are implemented—it actually hurts the economy now Estevez 13
(Dolia, Senior Mexico Correspondent and foreign affairs analyst in DC, Senior Advisor for the U.S.-Mexico Journalism Initiative at the Woodrow Wilson Center, "Mexico's Congress Passes Monopoly-Busting Telecom Bill, Threatening Tycoon Carlos Slim's Business Empire", May 1 2013, www.forbes.com/sites/doliaestevez/2013/05/01/mexicos-congress-passes-monopoly-busting-telecombill-threatening-tycoon-carlos-slims-business-empire/) Mexico’s Congress on Tuesday overwhelming passed the final version of a far-reaching telecommunication reform bill designed to boost competition in Mexico’s phone and television industry, which is now controlled by the world’s richest man, Carlos Slim, and fellow billionaire Emilio Azcarraga Jean. The new law was
approved almost unanimously, with 108 votes in favor and three against. It gives the Federal Institute of Telecommunications, a new regulatory autonomous body formed by seven regulators, the power to revoke operating licenses for monopolistic practices and to stop companies from controlling more than 50% of market share.¶ Slim’s America Movil (NYSE: AMX) controls 80% of Mexico’s landline phone market and 70 % of the wireless market, while billionaire Azcarraga Jean’s Televisa (SAB) captures close to 70% of Mexico’s television audience. Forced assets sales, however, will not be automatic if companies are declared dominant by the competition regulator. Companies that are fined or told to sell off assets by the new federal competition commission will have the right to lodge appeals to suspend these decisions, a tactic companies have used to fight competition rulings in the past. The new legislation “could materially affect the business of America Movil, ” the company said in a U.S. regulatory filing on April 30th, according to Reuters. On a call with analysts earlier in April, America Movil’s executives said the company would

not make any strategic

changes until it knows the details of the secondary laws to follow, added the news agency. America Movil expects the reforms to take effect sometime in 2014, since it needs to be approved by legislatures in the majority of Mexico’s 31 states. The Mexican Congress also needs to draw up secondary legislation to implement the new rules. Some analysts believe that uncertainty over the bill has been a drag on the share prices of America Movil and Televisa.

Solvency—Generic
CP means telecommunications are more efficient and competitive BMO 13
(Business Mexico Online, "Mexico's Telecommunications reform 'is a reality today: Pena Nieto", June 11, 2013, business-mexico-online.com/mexico´s-telecommunications-reform-is-a-reality-today-pena-nieto/)
President Enrique Peña Nieto yesterday signed a presidential decree enacting the constitutional reform of telecommunications, radio broadcasting and economic competition, opening the sector to foreign investment and paving the way for the legislature to pass secondary enabling legislation.¶ The constitutional reform will permit up to 100 percent foreign ownership of telecommunications and satellite communications companies in Mexico. It will also permit foreign investment up to 49 percent in radio broadcasting, in which foreign investment formerly was prohibited, provided there is reciprocity in the country where the foreign investor company is registered.¶ In announcing the reform, Peña Nieto said the reform is based on six principals:¶ 1)

Increased rights of users of telecommunications and radio broadcast services by making the sector a “public service of general interest” for the country.¶ 2) Updating the legal framework of the telecommunications industry to provide better legal certainty with a single law covering services, networks and the spectrum through federal concessions.¶ 3) Two new autonomous constitutionally-ordained agencies will be created: The Federal Telecommunications Institute and the Federal Economic Competition Commission, the latter to replace the current Competition Commission.¶ 4) Foreign investment will be permitted up to 100 percent in telecommunications and satellite communications, and up to 49 percent in radio broadcasting.¶ 5) A federal policy of “universal digital inclusion” that will develop infrastructure, access and high-speed connectivity to permit broad use of digital technology throughout Mexico.¶ 6) Wider coverage nationally through fiber optic broadband infrastructure.¶ “Businesses win, because they can be more efficient, to be able to count on better products at lower costs,” said Peña Nieto. “Mexico wins, because with a modern telecommunications sector and more competition in general, the entire economy will be more productive and more competitive internationally.”¶ Carlos Slim, the world´s
second wealthiest person behind Microsoft´s Bill Gates, is widely seen as being the big loser in the telecommunications reform. Slim´s América Móvil cellular and fixed-line telephone carrier has long had a near monopoly on the Mexican market. With operations in 18 countries, more than 263 million mobile customers and more than 30 million fixed lines, according to the company website, América Móvil is the largest wireless service provider in Latin America and the third largest in the world.

Solvency—Telecom K2 MexEcon
The telecom sector is the backbone of a strong Mexican economy —spills-over to all sectors Mariscal 02
(Judith, professor at CIDE, a Mexican research institution, “Unfinished Business: Telecommunications Reform in Mexico”) ¶ Technological innovations occurred simultaneously with a new phase of internationalization of the world economy and the increasing participation of information components in the production system (Wellenius, 1989). This contributed to a significant growth in the demand for telecommunications services. Thus, telecommunications deregulation is also a process of
gaining comparative advantage in the information technology sector and increasing overall competitiveness in the world market.

Telecommunications reform emerged as the pivotal exemplar of the broader modernization program given the awareness that telecommunications became the backbone of a strong economy. The vitality of important and social activities—such as banking, healthcare, information services, transportation, and education—are dependent on adequate telecom infrastructure and service.¶ Recognition of the pirvotal role played by telecommunications in the global economy was accompanied by initiatives to liberalize previously monopolistic telecommunications industries, and in some cases to privatize government-owned
Public Telecommunications Organizations (PTOs). Through the privatization of PTOs, governments attained investment for this sector’s modernization and, in virtually all national cases, associated local capital with foreign investors that had the necessary expertise and experience in operating telecommunications networks. Moreover, privatization achieved (1993) summarizes some of the general motives behind privatization of PTOs: the

benefits for the entire economy. Wellenius need to attract private (especially foreign) capital, reduce public debt, and develop a domestic capital market.¶ All of these reasons were present, with a varying degree of importance, in the Mexican case. Private, foreign capital, and technological expertise came into the telephone
industry initially through the joint venture between the Mexican Grupo Carso, Southwestern Bell, and France Telecom that acquired Telmex, and later in other joint ventures entering the long distance market. Developing a domestic capital market was an important issue in the privatization process in Mexico. With the sale of Telmex the Mexican government was able to issue shares in the domestic market that were accessible to international investors either directly or through a country fund. Telmex’s privatization contributed in a significant way to the reduction of public debt. In fact, in the context of a fiscal crisis, maximizing the sale price of Telmex was an important government objective during the process of reform.

It’s a key sector— a. Competition Roetter 13
(Dr. Martyn, independent technology and management consultant has extensive experience in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. He assists public- and private-sector clients reach decisions regarding technology investments, spectrum management, business plans, and public policies., "Mexico's bold telecom reform offers lessons for north of the border", about.bloomberglaw.com/practitioner-contributions/mexicos-bold-telecom-reform-offers-lessons-fornorth-of-the-border/) On March 11, 2013, Mexico’s new president announced a fundamental and sweeping set of reforms in the telecommunications and broadcasting sectors. The reforms are aimed at transforming the dynamics of and introducing effective competition into these key sectors of the economy . Until now, in Mexico these markets
have been dominated by a combination of a quasi-monopoly in telecommunications and a duopoly in broadcasting, although the sector ostensibly has been liberalized.¶ The reforms would not be possible without strong leadership from the president and broad agreement among all major political parties on the imperative for transformation. The proposed reforms

are impressive in terms of their breadth and depth and the comprehensiveness and interlocking nature of the measures that are

proposed. They provide an example of the kinds of changes—and the types of cooperation and will at the political level—that are required to have an impact on powerful entrenched interests motivated to protect and perpetuate a status quo.¶ Today other countries, including the United States, need comparable pro-competitive initiatives in their
telecommunications and media sectors. Otherwise they will not keep up with best-in-class nations that have been pursuing more productive public policies and creating regulatory environments for broadband that are more sensitive to the interests of customers than are the current market leaders on the supply side of network services.

b. Market emergence and GDP Guillen 13
(Mauro, Professor of International Management at Wharton University, Director, The Lauder Institute, "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform", May 29 2013, www.wharton.universia.net/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform¶ How

vital is it for emerging economies to provide their citizens with mobile and Internet services at affordable prices? At first glance, the issue may seem secondary, perhaps even trivial,compared with developments in more traditional sectors such as automobiles, steel or financial services. But Mexico’s emergence as a major economy will be determined, in no small measure, by its ability to provide mobile phone and Internet services at prices that its citizens can easily afford, experts say.¶ For
Mexico, the second-largest economy in Latin America, there has been plenty of positive news during the past decade. From 2004 through 2012, the country experienced average annual GDP growth of 2.7%, achieving a record-high pace of 7.6% in June 2010 after sinking to a record low of -9.6% in June 2009. Buoyed by the economic recovery of the United States, by far its largest trading partner, Mexico enjoyed growth of 3.9% in 2012, and it is on pace to achieve about 3.5% this year.¶ And yet, times

could have been much better for Mexico if only the country’s telecom sector weren’t so over-priced and inefficient, economists agree. Between 2005 and 2009, Mexico’s “dysfunctional” telecommunications sector deprived Mexico of an estimated $129.2 billion each year -- or 1.8% of its GDP -- according to a January 2012 report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD), of which Mexico is a member.

36% of the population is rural in Mexico.universia. research associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. needs the economic boost which highcapacity Internet access can provide.” . “These telecom reforms are necessary if Mexico is to compete” in this sector -. in particular. May 29 2013. Mexico is the fifth-largest OECD member in total number of subscribers but when it comes to mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants. research associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. but also Internet broadband. but it is 34th – dead last among OECD members – when it comes to fixed lines per 100 inhabitants. GDP per hour worked [labor productivity+ is 2.¶ According to the 2012 OECD Review of Telecommunication Policy and Regulation in Mexico.not just in fixed lines and mobile service. Professor of International Management at Wharton University.5 times less than the OECD average and represents *with Chile+ the lowest among OECD countries. Kotschwar adds. It has the lowest GDP per capita among OECD countries . “Mexico. Mexico is also characterized by relatively high inequality in income distribution. says that “Mexico is incredibly uncompetitive in telecom. compared to the OECD average of 26%. "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform". www. Mexico is the eighth-largest nation in the OECD. In the mobile sector.wharton.” As Kotschwar points out.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) **OECD=Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Barbara Kotschwar.net/index. citing Barbara Kotschwar.Solvency—International CP allows Mexico to be internationally competitive Guillen 13 (Mauro.… At the same time. Director. Mexico is 33rd of the 34 OECD members. The Lauder Institute. and has a very uneven distribution in regional GDP per capita. equivalent to 31% of the GDP per capita of the United States.

This represents an important opportunity for prospective foreign investors¶ in these sectors to participate in these businesses on markedly different terms than those ¶ previously available and with full control over their own strategic direction. including satellite communication. ¶ including satellite communications. In addition. is that foreign ownership limits in the phone market will be eliminated. Director.Solvency—Foreign Investment Enforcing telecom reforms create more sustainable business relationships with foreign parties that resolve inefficiencies and competition Kraiem et al 13 (Ruben. intellectual property.wharton. The Lauder Institute. both of which were heavily criticized during the election campaign for throwing their support behind Peña Nieto. litigation. “At its most extreme.com/files/Publication/faf3bf2f-510f-4694-9ec4090ff046bbec/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/f9af95ce-95a6-4579-b8450fe22533afd0/Mexico_Enacts_Comprehensive_Reform_in_its_Telecommunications_and_Broadcast_M edia_Sectors. senior advisor at McLarty Associates.” Another significant dimension of the reform. all members of Covington and Burling. and ¶ otherwise have effective control of those companies. Up to 49% ownership will be allowed in radio and television ¶ broadcasting. Breaking with that policy will eliminate important distortions and ¶ inefficiencies that have typified contractual and business relationships between Mexican and ¶ foreign parties in the sector. smaller firms. the path will presumably be wide open for foreign competition to impel Slim’s companies to lower their prices. subject to a requirement of reciprocity.pdf) Permitting up to 100% foreign ownership of companies engaged in telecommunications services. June 13 2013. citing Duncan Wood. May 29 2013. "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform". It will also open the door for new entrants to acquire and ¶ recapitalize existing market participants who have thus far been unable to compete effectively ¶ with the incumbents.net/index. The partial opening of the broadcast media sector is also a substantial ¶ step in the direction of greater competition. Cheaper prices attract foreign investment—smaller firms are key to check monopolies Guillen 13 (Mauro. Gabriel Mesa.cov. forcing them to sell assets. director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center.” notes Duncan Wood. has been a deterrent to new investment. www.” says Wood. Televisa and TV Azteca.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) The Role of the Regulator¶ How will the reforms attempt to bridge the gap between Mexico and more productive OECD nations? “The telecoms reform is far-reaching and revolutionary. a Washington-based international . www. currently seen as being a severe obstacle to the emergence of rival firms in the fixed-line and wireless market.” Wood explains. it will open markets to new. in part because it will create a new independent regulatory body that will have the power to restrain companies that have more than 50% of the market.¶ and financial investment. only to discover that they were seriously hampered by foreign ownership restrictions and pricing issues. ¶ The requirement that Mexican nationals own beneficially a majority of the voting shares in ¶ companies engaged in telecommunications services.¶ Amy Glover. the regulator will have the power to break up dominant firms. The new laws apply not only to the fixed-line and wireless sectors but also to television stations. Wood adds. "MEXICO ENACTS COMPREHENSIVE REFORM IN ITS TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND BROADCAST MEDIA SECTORS1". director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Under the new rules. The reform laws “represent an assault on the interests of the two dominant television companies in Mexico. ¶ even though foreigners have been permitted to hold additional shares of capital stock to reflect a ¶ larger economic participation.¶ During the late 1990s.universia. an international law firm that provides corporate. allowing 100% foreignowned firms to enter the market. Arturo Valenzuela. Professor of International Management at Wharton University. Cecile Zwlebach. and regulatory expertise. “But the regulator will also possess the power to set maximum prices for interconnections. several foreign firms attempted to challenge the market dominance of Slim’s Telmex and Telcel.

strategic advisory firm.” . notes that “these issues have been studied thoroughly” at the OECD. and there is a consensus about “what needs to be done for the Mexican economy to grow stronger.

They need to address much more directly the economic imbalances and retrograde economic ideology that are hobbling the U..and private-sector clients reach decisions regarding technology investments. Cardozo School of Law in New York who specializes in the US telecom industry. speaking at schools.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 If you were going to look for ground zero in the fight against a rapidly consolidating telecom and cable industry. and the emergence of new.” that offers a calm but chilling state-of-play on the information age in the United States. She is on a permanent campaign. about.¶ Susan Crawford. the cable systems and even access to the Internet have been overtaken by monopolists who resist innovation and chronically overcharge consumers. There are notable instances where only regulatory action has enabled the flourishing of innovations that often originate as is inherent in their nature from unpredictable sources.Internal NB—US Model CP is a wake-up call to US telecommunications policy—solves market competition and innovation Roetter 13 (Dr.S. May 19 2013. as well as to developing economies. The flourishing of internet-based services and applications would have been severely inhibited if they had been left up to unrestricted and unchallengeable decisions and the tender mercies of the incumbent large network operators of that time. and future ones need not be. conferences and companies — she was at Google last week — and in front of Congress. www. where support from the largest companies for “free markets” is in practice their endeavor to legalize unfettered corporate behavior.¶ The 1996 . Martyn. consumers and inhibit entrepreneurial initiatives. independent technology and management consultant has extensive experience in North and South America.¶ Ms. quoting Susan Crawford. "Telecom's Big Players Hold Back the Future".nytimes. telecommunications policy makers and analysts. and Asia. spectrum management.com/practitioner-contributions/mexicos-bold-telecom-reform-offers-lessons-fornorth-of-the-border/) Until now Mexico has not seemed to be a place to emulate in terms of its public policies with regard to economic sectors such as telecommunications or the prices and performance of its network services. if the policies for Telecommunications Reform outlined above are implemented and enforced effectively over the next few years then it may be time to think seriously about what can and should be learned from Mexico and even applied to the United States. not That’s key to US economic competitiveness Carr 13 (David. Crawford argues that the airwaves.¶ Mexico’s bold attempt to break free of stultifying economic imbalances should serve as a wake-up call to U.com/2013/05/20/business/media/telecoms-big-players-hold-back-thefuture. telecommunications and media sectors. "Mexico's bold telecom reform offers lessons for north of the border". Their goal is camouflaged under the battle cry that “deregulation” is key to removing the allegedly inherently destructive and incompetent hand of Government from their legitimate and valuable business initiatives that deliver enormous value to the economy and to their customers. While some existing regulations are damaging economically with no compensating benefit for all of them are. He assists public. The opening of telecommunications markets in the United States in the last few decades of the last century and limiting the power of the then AT&T is a most striking example of the benefits of and need for intelligent regulation. a professor at the school. and public policies. However. has written a book. “Captive Audience: The Telecom Industry and Monopoly Power in the New Gilded Age. Media & Advertising writer for the New York Times. Their argument is that all Government regulations are inevitably bound to be burdensome and stifle innovation as well as entail higher and unnecessary costs that will have to be passed on to their customers. you might end up on the fifth floor of the Benjamin N. Europe. value-creating business models. asserting that the status quo has been great for providers but an expensive mess for everyone else. business plans. Cardozo School of Law in New York. a professor at the Benjamin N.S.bloomberglaw.

but a business imperative. My whole book is essentially an argument to buy stock in cable companies.¶ In a recent conversation. allowed cable companies and telecoms to simply divide markets and merge their way to monopoly. reliable connections to the Internet while America seems just one step ahead of the dial-up era. The captains of industry who kidnapped telecoms and cable are not monsters. while Verizon and AT&T own 64 percent of cellphone service. covering some 50 million American homes. either.¶ But don’t look for a jeremiad. Comcast and Time Warner have a complete lock on broadband in the markets they control. and the lack of them will cripple American efforts to compete in a global economy. she says. are now essentially controlled by four companies. Crawford is precise in her arguments and far from frantic in making them. High-capacity fiber connections to homes and businesses are not just a social good. she explained that wired and wireless connections.¶ “They have acted in parallel to exclude competitors and used every lever they had to gain control over their markets. her office — or her book — would be a good place to find out. Ms. .¶ Her arguments don’t end there.Telecommunications Act. Don’t get her started on the Comcast-NBCUniversal merger unless you have some time on your hands. merely shrewd capitalists who used leverage to maximize returns. she says. no different or worse than the railroad or electricity barons of times past. If you are looking for the answer to why much of the developed world has cheap. building blocks of modern life. A violist who plays in string quartets when she is not hammering telecom companies. which was meant to lay down track to foster competition in a new age.” she said with a laugh.

¶ So says Shannon O'Neil. “But telecom reform will be very popular.” and so the Pena Nieto government has moved decisively into that sector first. the Pena Nieto government is expected to lay out reforms for the energy sector. President Enrique Peña Nieto's administration is preparing an amendment that would apply to newer technologies and equipment than what already is employed by the federally owned monopoly. The Lauder Institute. labor and education sectors – are the handiwork of the new administration of Pena Nieto. the state-owned oil company.” when he steered that country toward the center of the political spectrum. neither Vicente Fox nor Felipe Calderon.S.net/index. people have been saying that there need to be reforms in the education.S.com/business/business_columnists/david_hendricks/article/Mexican-energyreform-would-help-S-Texas-4404200. given the iconic role of Pemex. authoritarian political style. He feels pressure to succeed. “Lula changed his tune. and the new PRI is clearly driven by pragmatism. like [ex-President+ Lula did in Brazil.wharton. "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform". www. were as successful at pursuing a promarket. and other foreign drilling companies could invest in risk-sharing investments in Mexico for the first time since 1938. anti-monopolistic approach as Pena Nieto already appears to have been during his short term in office. expand their investment and drilling activity into Mexico. not by ideology. Long known for its left-leaning. U. "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform".¶ O'Neil will appear in San Antonio to discuss U. a difficult fight. the PRI ran Mexico for 71 years before losing power to the conservative PAN (National Action Party) in 2000.mysanantonio. In part because of political opposition.S.” according to Guillen. Petróleos Mexicanos. President Barack Obama's visit with Peña Nieto in Mexico the first week of May likely will focus more on economic issues than on the security . “Pena Nieto needs to succeed or people might go back to the PAN. “For at least a decade.¶ But the Peña Nieto proposal will be “a complicated political process. www. the two presidents from the PAN. Peña Nieto's party does not control a majority of Mexico's congress. Professor of International Management at Wharton University. spreading additional economic benefits into South Texas. if the constitutional reform passes in Mexico's congress. a leading analyst of U.wharton. There is strong political opposition to energy reform.¶ Opening Mexico's energy sector would be only one way the U. Her groundbreaking book. it may seem paradoxical that these telecom reforms – and upcoming reforms of the financial. All these reforms are absolutely necessary. in modern Mexican history.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) A Pragmatic Consensus¶ At first glance. the existing energy companies active in South Texas could.-Mexico relations and senior fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. May 29 2013. www. but only if the drilling involves shale and deep-water drilling sites.S. Director. expect a proposed constitutional amendment — pushed by the Mexican president — to open the nation's energy sector to foreign participation. and Mexico could improve formal relations to catch up to the profound economic integration that is under way.” as well as fiscal reforms that mean “people will have to pay more income taxes.universia. leading analyst of U.S.” O'Neil warned. would be full of historic sweep.net/index. April 2 2013. Texas".¶ The proposal.” Specifically energy reforms Guillen 13 (Mauro. Any proposal would require votes from other political parties.S.universia.”¶ Kotschwar agrees that there is a strong consensus in Mexico about the series of pragmatic reforms that are needed in order to vault Mexico into the next stage of its economic development.¶ In fact. May 29 2013. “Mexico has changed.” is being published this week by Oxford University Press. business colmnist for MySA. the first presidential candidate from the PRI (Party of Revolutionary Institutions) in 12 years. The Lauder Institute. the United States and the Road Ahead. and he was very successful.¶ Because the Eagle Ford Shale formation extends far into northern Mexico.-Mexico relations and senior fellow for Latin America studies at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.-Mexico relations April 16 during a World Affairs Council of San Antonio event.php In the next few months. quoting Shannon O'Neil. Professor of International Management at Wharton University.¶ That means U.Internal NB—PRI CP is key to success of Nieto’s political agenda Guillen 13 (Mauro. “The hardest reforms will be in the oil sector. “Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico. Key to relations and the US economy Hendricks 13 (David. O'Neil said.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) Further down the road. if it passes. telecom and energy sectors. "Mexican energy reform would help S. Director.” notes Guillen.

she explained. content.S.¶ Shared production makes U. corporations more competitive globally. which means employment rises in both countries. O'Neil said.-Mexico trade volumes have tripled since 1994's North American Free Trade Agreement.¶ U.S. O'Neil predicted.matters that have dominated news coverage.S. so does manufacturing in the United States because about 40 percent of finished goods are U. As Mexico's manufacturing production increases. .

wharton. Professor of International Management at Wharton University. Director. some people are wondering why he has not opposed the reforms despite their impact on his vast billions in net worth. May 29 2013. Guillen argues that Slim is “very smart” and realizes that the best way to react to the reform “is not to oppose it.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) As for Carlos Slim.” Slim. The Lauder Institute. “The intent that has been signaled is intriguing and. he loses face.”¶ Kotschwar cautions that the multi-party Pact of Mexico behind the telecom reforms – which brought together not just the PRI and PAN. doubts remain about the ultimate outcome of the reforms. if it comes to fruition.universia.wharton. Wood noted that it will take time to develop the new institutional framework required for regulating the sector. . "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform". However. www. "Tackling Mexico’s Dysfunctional Telecom Sector: The First Steps Toward Reform". Now is key—delay of secondary enactment laws means Slim can shape the proposal to his own benefit Guillen 13 (Mauro.net/index. and that “if he opposes it. but he knows that Pena Nieto is a moderate” and that the Mexican government is not going to take extreme measures that might seriously damage his personal wealth. research associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. citing Barbara Kotschwar. apparently realizes that the reform is very popular.net/index.” rather than the popularity of their ideas. he adds. will profoundly change Mexico’s telecommunications sector. As a result.universia. www. but also the PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) and the PVM (Mexican Green Party) -.AT: SQ Solves Implementation is critical—initial passage of the bill won’t change the squo—CP is necessary Guillen 13 (Mauro. Kotschwar argued that the reformers “will be judged by the quality of their implementation. He would prefer the status quo.could eventually fracture and Pena Nieto might find himself without enough support to get through the entire series of reforms. the status quo will not likely be altered much in the next year or so. since the parties in the Pact compete against one another for control of state and local governments. but to try to shape it. May 29 2013. The Lauder Institute. Director. Regional politics could damage the coalition.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2360&language=english) Suspicions and Challenges¶ Despite the spirit of pragmatism. Professor of International Management at Wharton University.

Mexico Relations .

¶ Peña Nieto has consolidated all law enforcement cooperation with the United States through Mexico’s Interior Ministry.” he said.S. focusing on President Obama’s economic.html) MEXICO CITY — President Obama acknowledged on Thursday that the relationship between U. and the Caribbean for the Washington Post. May 2 of 2013. officials are concerned that the new Mexican government seems less inclined to provide the same level of deep coordination with U. “Obama begins bilateral meeting with Peña Nieto”.S.¶ “I agreed to continue our close cooperation on security even as the nature of that cooperation evolves.washingtonpost. intelligence sharing.S.¶ At the start of Obama’s three-day trip to Latin America.S.¶ But the security partnership between Mexico and the United States has been the biggest potential point of conflict between the two leaders ahead of the meeting. including the United States. U. financial and fiscal policy (Zachary. http://www.¶ Obama.”¶ Mexican officials have described the changes as a common-sense streamlining of U. Nick Miroff overs Mexico.1NC Text: the United States federal government should establish meetings with President Pena Nieto to discuss security and regional cooperation Increased diplomatic relations allow cooperation over other aspects besides the economy – that solves and doesn’t link to politics Goldfarb et al 13 – staff writer covering the White House. and Peña Nieto said Thursday that the hope is to be more “efficient. and Mexican military and law enforcement officials. who earlier this week reserved judgment on the new approach.S. reining in the wide-ranging and personal connections between U. both leaders affirmed the depth of the relationship between the nations at a time when they are trying to forge closer economic ties and people in both countries are following immigration reform proposals in Congress. “It’s obviously up to the Mexican people to determine their security structures and how it engages with other nations.” . and Mexican law enforcement and intelligence agencies is changing under new Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto. who has been seeking to scale back the United States’ role in confronting drug trafficking and organized crime in Mexico. With drug trafficking and the illegal transport of weapons over the border still major problems. said he accepts it at a news conference after a bilateral meeting. law enforcement and intelligence agencies that was offered by the administration of Felipe Calderóno. Central America.com/world/obama-begins-bilateral-meeting-with-penanieto/2013/05/02/07475caa-b368-11e2-9a98-4be1688d7d84_story.

4 billion each day. But there are risks in the pace his team seems to have adopted.S. He will also seek to positively frame the immigration reform debate.¶ The U.com/latino/opinion/2013/04/29/obama-goes-to-mexico-time-is-ripe-to-advancebilateral-relations/) This week’s meeting between Presidents Obama and Peña Nieto brings U.” ¶ As strong as the bilateral relationship is now. particularly Mexicans themselves. thornier ones for action. roughly $1.-Mexico economic partnership is thriving. http://latino.S.S. . including a planned announcement of financial reforms.¶ President Obama will emphasize the need to continue to effect close security cooperation and coordination. And strong regional supply chains mean that nearly 40 percent of every product the U. education and telecommunications— and is readying other. security remains the focal point for many citizens of both countries and a primary challenge for Mexican leaders.-Mexico relations to center stage. an historic agreement Peña Nieto and the leaders of the two main opposition parties signed the day after the new PRI president took office. The dispute has exposed the inherent political tensions and consequent limitations of the Pact. There may never be a more opportune time. now counsel in the Mexico City office of White & Case and Chairman of Vianovo Ventures (Antonio. And in many respects President Peña Nieto will have the opportunity to do the same. Bilateral trade reached nearly one-half trillion dollars in 2012. Ambassador to Mexico from 2002-2009.S. His visit to Mexico offers a rare opportunity to promote goals in both the domestic and foreign policy arenas. imports from Mexico is really “Made in America.¶ Peña Nieto campaigned on promises of a recalibrated strategy on security and the Mexican public has been patient in granting his administration time to develop its approach. it must deepen and evolve in order to ensure expanded opportunity and security for both countries going forward. but passing the reforms is just the opening act. Senate and is expected to continue for the remainder of the year. however. Mexico is the U.¶ The crisis was provoked by the opposition’s discovery that the PRI was using public funds to finance party-run programs —and thereby gain political advantage— ahead of local elections in July.-Mexico relations have been largely successful—and overdue. including mounting skepticism —at home and to some extent in the U. April 29 0f 2013. many see signs that the alliance is fraying and expect negotiations for remaining initiatives on the 95-item reform agenda—including highly anticipated fiscal and energy reform packages—to be more problematic. An estimated six million U. and reforms to boost economic competitiveness in Mexico and though they inject some short-term uncertainty into the relationship they also infuse it with a sense of new possibilities and opportunity. These include immigration reform in the U.¶ Now near the 150-day mark of his six-year term. Presidents Peña Nieto and Obama have both entered a post-honeymoon environment that demands hard work and successively heavier lifts on every policy goal.foxnews. Like other two-term presidents. Peña Nieto has pushed through a number of long-awaited reforms —to labor.¶ Though the parties may be able to resolve the immediate controversy. A few days ago the administration was forced to temporarily suspend all activities related to the Pact. to be more circumspect in their praise of the administration’s accomplishments to date.2NC Solves Relations Diplomatic cooperation solves relations – allows both leaders to push their agenda Garza 13 – Served as U.¶ The foundation for the administration’s ambitious reform drive has been the Pact for Mexico.’s second largest export market and third leading source of imports. Domestic reform efforts that have far-reaching implications for the bilateral agenda are underway in both countries. This second face-to-face between the two leaders occurs at a critical time in each presidency. Implementation is crucial.— that the issue has not been given the priority it deserves. ¶ Recent efforts to broaden the discourse on U. which is just getting underway in the U.S.S.¶ President Obama will be able to sympathize with his Mexican counterpart on this score. he may soon look to foreign affairs to burnish his legacy.S.S. The visit to Mexico affords the chance to highlight the successful and interconnected economic partnership the countries share and to make the case for immigration reform as essential to North America’s economic security. ¶ With the stakes potentially so high on so many issues fundamental to the relationship. jobs depend on trade with Mexico.S. And it’s this recognition that has prompted many observers. protect human rights and construct a rule of law that supports a more open and competitive economy. Nevertheless. His efforts have been widely praised and his popularity is high. only the highest-level commitment will advance the agenda . “Obama Goes to Mexico: Time is Ripe to Advance Bilateral Relations”. Over four years and 100-days into his second term he has become well acquainted with difficult negotiations. Mexican officials emphasize their commitment is strong and encompasses efforts to reduce violence.S.

¶ The White House meeting set the stage for what foreign-policy insiders say could be the start a new era of relations between the two nations.” Mr.S. and Mexico are as tightly bound as siblings. Mexico has historically been the largest source of our undocumented population. ThinkProgress reports that the expiration of the assault weapons ban has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Mexicans in cartel violence. Obama cannot afford to take Mexico for granted. Perhaps with more attention from the Obama administration. exports more to Mexico than to China and Japan combined./Mexico relations. November 27 of 2012. Mexico is enjoying remarkable economic growth. So Mexico is not an ally that automatically falls in lockstep with American interests.S. Consider that Mexico has been fully engaged with Cuba since the revolution in 1959 (which was launched from Mexico). Pena-Nieto greet an era of wider cooperation”.S. On the positive side.S. not on its problems . “We want to contribute. Mexico recognized his election on April 19.” He wants a deeper relationship . and the Senate has unveiled a proposal that creates new pathways for legal immigration.S. Washington Times./Mexico trade hit almost $500 billion in 2012. it would be a recipe for a regional economic boom. As president-elect. But illegal immigration is at net zero. and he may even allow foreign investment in its state oil company. Peña Nieto could be persuaded to be more supportive of U. productive partnership.”¶ The remarks came as part of a ceremonial meeting between Mr. Obama. Vice President Joseph R. America’s demand for illegal drugs fuels the growth of these cartels. U.S. Biden is to attend in Mexico next week. there are legitimate reasons why Mexico has been viewed warily by past administrations.¶ Politically.S. If he and Peña Nieto were to collaborate on ways of matching Mexico’s young labor force with American technology and training. Greater U. Our mutual interests are too vast and complex to be restricted in this short-sighted way. as the cartels generally leave multinational operations alone. On the negative side.com/2013/04/29/opinionpresident-obama-has-the-chance-to-improve-usmexico-relations/) The U. http://www.S.S.¶ With immigration reform. investment in Mexico will make the country safer. http://nbclatino. Obama should build on these ties to create greater economic integration. Peña Nieto favors opening Mexico’s energy sector to private investment.washingtontimes. one that is defined by shared economic goals. Since 2008. Already. The U. Mexico has seen steady economic growth. which has been a net benefit to the U. has not recognized Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro as successor to Hugo Chavez. whose inauguration festivities Mr. Obama should take the lead in encouraging more communication and cooperation with Mexico . It’s time for a foreign policy with Mexico based on its potential.S. April 29 of 2013. and he should not miss it. The border is more secure than ever. “Obama. Meetings solve relations – they set up a new framework for cooperation Taylor 12 – Washington Times State Department correspondent (Guy.S. Obama bears responsibility for his failure to reform U. Obama would be wise to recognize that relations with Mexico should not center on these issues alone. “Opinion: President Obama has the chance to improve US/Mexico relations”.-Mexican .com/news/2012/nov/27/obama-pena-nieto-greet-an-era-of-widercooperation/?page=all) Mexican President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto praised President Obama on Tuesday for pursuing a softer posture toward illegal immigrants in the United States and said he hopes to work with U. Border towns have long feared spillover violence from the drug cartels. And although the U. officials to reduce the number of Mexicans crossing the border illegally. President Obama must forge a more positive. Biden and the new Mexican leader. we want to be part of this. he can highlight the progress his administration has made towards overhauling our immigration system. side of the border have proved largely unfounded. and the fears of violence on the U. and often just as dysfunctional.¶ President Obama has the chance to turn a page in U. “It is a mistake to limit our bilateral relationship to drugs and security concerns.Meetings solve relations – allows cooperation over all aspects of the partnership – only the counterplan allows for a deeper relationship Reyes 13 – Columnist for USA Today and Harvard grad (Raul. ¶ However. Pena Nieto said. and U. While both governments are concerned with immigration and drug violence. Even worse. Peña Nieto wrote in The Washington Post that.¶ True.¶ “We fully support your proposal.¶ Obama will arrive in Mexico with good and bad news. policies for the region. gun laws. and Obama neglects our southern neighbor at his own peril.S.¶ That’s the smart way forward.

drug-control policies and the possible opening of Mexico’s state-controlled energy sector to foreign investment all on the table. Pena Nieto.” he said.”¶ “What happens in Mexico has an impact on our society.¶ He praised the work of outgoing Mexican President Felipe Calderon. who he said “established an excellent working relationship” with the United States. Obama said he looked forward to continuing to work with Mexican officials on “border issues” as well as “regional and global issues. multinational partner.¶ Mr. Obama sounded an optimistic tune on Tuesday.” noting that Mexico has become an “important multilateral. and said he hopes to establish a similar “close personal and professional relationship” with Mr. Mr.\ .

The Mérida strategy now ¶ focuses on four pillars: (1) disrupting organized criminal groups.-Mexican Relations”. January 16 of 2013.S. assistance initially focused on training and equipping Mexican counterdrug ¶ forces.1 billion of which had been delivered as of November ¶ 2012. http://www. assistance to Mexico.S. From FY2008-FY2012. Whereas U.S.-Mexican security cooperation has increased significantly as a result of the development and ¶ implementation of the Mérida Initiative.fas. Congress appropriated $1. it now places more emphasis on addressing the weak institutions and underlying societal ¶ problems that have allowed the drug trade to flourish in Mexico.S. roughly $1. “Mexico’s New Administration: Priorities and Key Issues in U. and (4) building strong and resilient communities.AT: Links to Politics Popular with Congress – Merida proves Seelke 13 – Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the CRS (Clare Ribando. While ¶ bilateral efforts have yielded some positive results.org/sgp/crs/row/R42917. (3) building a 21st century border. a bilateral security partnership announced in 2007 that ¶ involves U. the weakness of Mexico’s criminal justice ¶ system has hindered the effectiveness of anti-crime efforts. .pdf) U.9 billion in ¶ Mérida assistance for Mexico. (2) institutionalizing the rule of ¶ law.

Terrorism .

¶ journalists. as is often the case with new technologies.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) Yet. he recommends that the United States work internationally to establish rules and norms governing the use of drones. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). and limit targeted killings to a limited number of specific terrorists with transnational ambitions. the international legal and regulatory framework is lagging behind. nonpartisan membership organization. “Reforming U. He argues that the United States should end so-called signature strikes. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).¶ DC. educators and students.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. drones are not without their drawbacks. Like any tool. There is also the question of net utility: To what extent are the specific benefits derived from drone strikes offset by the reality that the strikes often alienate the local government and population? And there is the reality that drones are proliferating but. Drone Strike Policies”. Congressional Research Service.cfr. January 2013. think¶ tank. http://www. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. at the Brookings Institution. drones are only as useful as the information guiding them. government officials. business executives. as Micah Zenko writes in this Council Special Report. Finally. Previously. especially with regard to targeted killings. an independent.¶ Zenko puts forward a substantive agenda.S. which target unidentified militants based on their behavior patterns and personal networks. either Generic or Border Specific) . He also calls Congress to improve its oversight of drone strikes and to continue restrictions on armed drone sales. (Add Solvency. and for this they are heavily reliant on local military and intelligence cooperation. significant questions exist about who constitutes a legitimate target and under what circumstances it is acceptable to strike. More important.1NC Text: The United States federal government should -end signature strikes which target unidentified militants -limit targeted killings to a limited number of specific terrorists with transnational ambitions -improve congressional oversight of drone strikes -work internationally to establish rules and norms governing the use of drones Solvency Advocate Zenko 13 (Micah.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington.

freedom of action and risks proliferation of armed drone¶ technology without the requisite normative framework.¶ Existing practices carry two major risks for U.¶ the U. military increased its drone inventory from fifty¶ to seventy-five hundred—of which approximately 5 percent can be¶ armed. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. the scope of legitimate targets. nonpartisan membership organization.S.¶ objections from host states and other counterterrorism partners could¶ also severely circumscribe drones’ effectiveness. at the Brookings Institution.cfr. Internationally.¶ journalists.S.¶ Reforming U. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). and the legal¶ framework. drone strike policies can do much to allay concerns ¶ internationally by ensuring that targeted killings are defensible under¶ international legal regimes that the United States itself helped establish. the public and policymakers are increasingly uneasy with limited¶ transparency for targeted killings.3 If the present trajectory continues.S. “Reforming U.S.¶ DC. location. government has expanded exponentially¶ in scope. the use of unmanned aerial systems—commonly¶ referred to as drones—by the U.S.S. . but this lack of transparency threatens¶ to limit U.¶ drones may share the fate of Bush-era enhanced interrogation¶ techniques and warrantless wiretapping—the unpopularity and illegality¶ of which eventually caused the policy’s demise. and frequency. an independent. government officials. Host states have¶ grown frustrated with U.¶ and by allowing U. government has not provided a clear explanation of how¶ drone strikes in nonbattlefield settings are coordinated with broader¶ foreign policy objectives. while opposition by nonhost¶ partners could impose additional restrictions on the use of drones. drone policy. http://www.1 From September 2001 to¶ April 2012. January 2013.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. The first comes from operational restrictions¶ on drones due to domestic and international pressure.S. educators and students.2 Yet despite the unprecedented escalation of its fleet and missions.S.2NC Rollback Successful counter-terror policies rely on drones—CP prevents an inevitable rollback Zenko 13 (Micah. Drone Strike Policies”. officials to openly address concerns and¶ counter misinformation.S. business executives. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. interests that are¶ likely to grow over time. Drones are critical counterterrorism tools that advance¶ U. interests around the globe.S.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) Over the past decade. Congressional Research Service. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). the U. Previously. In the United¶ States. think¶ tank.

" Davis said. but we haven’t sat down and gotten our policies straight about how we want to allow these technologies to be used. and now both northern and southern borders are covered." Gouré said.org/content/mixedfeelings-border-drones-boon-national-security-threat-privacy) ¶ The Department of Homeland Security just launched its tenth Predator B Unmanned Aerial System.fronterasdesk.¶ "The government does have the right to protect its borders. a former highranking Defense Department official and current vice president of The Lexington Institute. many experts say they’re worth every penny.Solvency—Border Terror Drones solve boarder terror—efficiency and resolving unpopularity is key Rozemberg 12 (Hernan. Threat To Privacy". That’s a scary thought. The Homeland Security Department's Office of Inspector General issued a scathing report in May on this issue.¶ "I don’t think there’s a whole lot of need to do this over Kansas. at New Mexico State University. who specializes in privacy issues at the American Civil Liberties Union. I believe we absolutely need that as a nation right now. It questioned why drones are being put to use for fewer than 4. a foreign policy think tank in Washington." where he covered issues of immigration and border security.000 hours. who researches drone issues at the Center for International Policy." said Dan Gouré.¶ They’re just not being used efficiently. a military think tank in Virginia. D.¶ Even though they cost $18 million apiece. Opponents of the drone program say the government can now spy into anyone’s backyard without their consent. commonly known as a drone. "Mixed Feelings On Border Drones: Boon To National Security."¶ Striking that balance is a thorny matter. "What you have to balance is the safety of the airspace users and the people on the ground with the national security of the country." Stanley said. served as a Bureau Chief and senior correspondent for NPR's "Fronteras: The Changing America Desk. . said Tom Barry.000 flight hours per year when they could be up in the air for more than 13. said Jay Stanley.¶ And then there’s also the question of the effectiveness of border drones. It should have been doing this a decade ago. He’s currently second in charge of the country’s largest drone development and testing center.¶ "We’ve done as much as we can do on the surface and so you have to go into the air. www. And he started the drone office at the Federal Aviation Administration. And we’re going to have to increasingly have to go into the air in order to be effective.¶ "Homeland Security’s behind the times.¶ Doug Davis has been working with drones for over two decades. July 5 2012.C. what kind of limits need to be placed on them in order to protect our privacy. but for border surveillance.

the¶ U.S.70 CP solves terrorism Zenko 13 (Micah. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). at the Brookings Institution. business executives. fully¶ loaded with munitions. nonpartisan membership organization.S. for¶ instance.S. http://www. for over fourteen hours.¶ DC. January 2013. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). an independent. First. capture.¶ a drone-fired missile travels faster than the speed of sound. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. Congressional Research Service. and fly them to the target.69 Currently.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington.7 . Congressional Research Service.¶ This ability stands in stark contrast to the August 1998 cruise missile¶ salvo targeting Osama bin Laden. drones allow for sustained persistence¶ over potential targets. to allow time¶ to analyze the intelligence. obtain presidential authorization. greater durability in the face of hostile air defense¶ environments. Though they are only in the early¶ stages of development.S. educators and students. at the Brookings Institution.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) The U. compared to four¶ hours or less for F-16 fighter jets and A-10 ground attack aircraft. military targeting experts call the¶ “find-fix-finish” loop—that most other platforms lack. January 2013.¶ or death. an independent.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. program¶ the missiles.cfr.S. the next generation of armed drones will almost¶ certainly have more missiles of varying types. military and civilian officials claim¶ that there are no plans to develop autonomous drones that can use lethal¶ force.S. http://www. enhanced guidance and¶ navigation systems. Drone Strike Policies”.¶ Second. Previously.cfr. use of armed drones has two unique advantages over manned¶ aircraft.¶ journalists. Drone Strike Policies”. striking a¶ target within seconds— often before it is heard by people on the ground. For example. think¶ tank. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members.¶ journalists. The existing U. drone strikes in¶ nonbattlefield settings. government officials. government officials. educators and students. business executives. but they carry the dire risk of¶ misattribution as a U. think¶ tank.S. armed drones will incrementally integrate varying¶ degrees of operational autonomy to overcome their most limiting and¶ costly factor—the human being. drones provide a near-instantaneous responsiveness—¶ dramatically shrinking what U. nonpartisan membership organization. Although many of its plans are classified.5 And¶ unlike manned aircraft or raids.Solvency—Drones Fail AT Drone’s don’t solve Terror—reject their snapshot evidence Zenko 13 (Micah. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). and increased maximum loiter time—and even the capability¶ to be refueled in the air by unmanned tankers. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members. and special operations raids when¶ it comes to destroying targets. arsenal of armed¶ drones—primarily the Predator and Reaper—can remain aloft. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. which had to be programmed based¶ on projections of where he would be in four to six hours. Previously.S. Several U. Finally.S. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action.6 Intercontinental ballistic missiles¶ (ICBMs) loaded with conventional munitions can reach distant¶ targets much faster than cruise missiles. military has nonspecific objectives to replace the Predators and ¶ Reapers with the Next-Generation Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA)¶ sometime in the early-to-mid 2020s. a senior¶ official from the lead executive authority approves U. drones fly directly over hostile territory ¶ without placing pilots or ground troops at risk of injury.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) The United States will inevitably improve and enhance the lethal¶ capabilities of its drones. drone-fired missiles can be—and have been— diverted¶ at the last moment if noncombatants enter the likely blast radius. “Reforming U. nuclear first strike against Russia or China. distant missile strikes. “Reforming U. Nevertheless.¶ DC.

nonpartisan membership organization.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning.or air-launched¶ cruise missiles.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. Drone Strike Policies¶ weapons platform.¶ journalists. and the effectiveness of drones makes¶ targeted killings the more likely policy option compared to capturing¶ suspected militants or other nonmilitary options. think¶ tank.S. that they avoid direct risks to U.¶ U. and tacit host-state support have made¶ drones the preeminent tool for U. Bush authorized more nonbattlefield targeted¶ killing strikes than any of his predecessors (50). Since 9/11. servicemembers—¶ vastly outweigh the limited costs and consequences. Decision-makers¶ are now much more likely to use lethal force against a range of perceived¶ threats than in the past. they provide the United States with a distinct¶ capability that significantly reduces many of the inherent political. http://www. Instead. As a result.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) The combination of persistence and responsiveness. lethal operations against suspected¶ terrorists and militants where states are unable to singlehandedly¶ deal with the threat they pose. “Reforming U. an independent. at the Brookings Institution. the advantages of using drones—¶ particularly. George W. and military risks of targeted killings.cfr.¶ DC. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members. government officials. Yet¶ without any meaningful checks—imposed by domestic or international¶ political pressure—or sustained oversight from other branches of government.¶ diplomatic. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. Previously. drone strikes create a moral hazard because of the negligible¶ risks from such strikes and the unprecedented disconnect between¶ American officials and personnel and the actual effects on the ground. high-quality¶ intelligence infrastructures. Drone Strike Policies”. And the frequency of drone strikes is only increasing¶ over time. Congressional Research Service.S. drones are not just another¶ 8 Reforming U. educators and students.14¶ However. January 2013.S. targeted killings by other platforms would almost certainly¶ inflict greater collateral damage.Good Solvency card Zenko 13 (Micah.S. business executives. over 95 percent of all nonbattlefield¶ targeted killings have been conducted by drones—the remaining attacks¶ were JSOC raids and AC-130 gunships and offshore sea. and Barack Obama¶ has more than septupled that number since he entered office (350). report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).¶ Compared to other military tools.S. .

¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members.¶ As Obama administration officials have warned about the proliferation¶ of drones. Congressional Research Service.S. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. it would¶ serve U.S. think¶ tank. January 2013.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) Although reforming U.cfr. drone strike policies will be difficult and¶ will require sustained high-level attention to balance transparency with¶ the need to protect sensitive intelligence sources and methods. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “If we want other nations to use these technologies¶ responsibly.¶ Introduction 5¶ ■■ increasing the likelihood that the United States will sustain the international¶ tolerance and cooperation required to carry out future drone¶ strikes. government officials. “Reforming U. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).” . Previously. and¶ ■■ providing current and future U. educators and students. Drone Strike Policies”. http://www.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. administrations with the requisite¶ political leverage to shape and promote responsible use of drones by¶ other states and nonstate actors.S.Solvency—Drones Unpopular CP alleviates international and domestic concern Zenko 13 (Micah. we must use them responsibly.S.¶ journalists. nonpartisan membership organization. such as intelligence support and host-state basing rights.¶ ■■ exerting a normative influence on the policies and actions of other¶ states. business executives. an independent.¶ DC. at the Brookings Institution.¶ ■■ placing the use of drones as a counterterrorism tactic on a more¶ legitimate and defensible footing with domestic and international¶ audiences. national interests by¶ ■■ allowing policymakers and diplomats to paint a more accurate portrayal¶ of drones to counter the myths and misperceptions that currently¶ remain unaddressed due to secrecy concerns.

¶ the U. nonpartisan membership organization. the United States should more fully explain and reform¶ aspects of its policies on drone strikes in nonbattlefield settings by¶ ending the controversial practice of “signature strikes”. drones risk becoming an unregulated. policy provides¶ a powerful precedent for other states and nonstate actors that will¶ increasingly deploy drones with potentially dangerous ramifications.¶ DC. business executives. government officials.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). near-monopoly on drone strikes will erode as more countries¶ develop and hone this capability. educators and students. The advantages and effectiveness of¶ drones in attacking hard-to-reach and time-sensitive targets are compelling¶ many countries to indigenously develop or explore purchasing¶ unmanned aerial systems. drone strike policies is unsustainable.¶ The current trajectory of U.S. Congressional Research Service.S. Previously.¶ Reforming its practices could allow the United States to regain moral¶ authority in dealings with other states and credibly engage with the¶ international community to shape norms for responsible drone use. “Reforming U. at the Brookings Institution. limiting targeted¶ killings to leaders of transnational terrorist organizations and¶ individuals with direct involvement in past or ongoing plots against the¶ United States and its allies. . Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. Drone Strike Policies”. http://www. an independent.¶ journalists. Given that the United States is currently¶ the only country—other than the United Kingdom in the traditional¶ battlefield of Afghanistan and perhaps Israel—to use drones¶ to attack the sovereign territory of another country.¶ unaccountable vehicle for states to deploy lethal force with impunity.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. and clarifying rules of the road for drone¶ strikes in nonbattlefield settings.S. it has a unique¶ opportunity and responsibility to engage relevant international actors¶ and shape development of a normative framework for acceptable use¶ of drones. U.¶ Without reform from within.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) ¶ The second major risk is that of proliferation.¶ Consequently.S. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). In this uncharted territory.cfr. think¶ tank. Over the next decade.AT: Drones Bad CP fosters sustainable proliferation of drone technology—(solves drone bad turns?) Zenko 13 (Micah. January 2013.

¶ journalists. “Reforming U. and Iraqi jet fighters shot down¶ a Predator in 2002. overflight¶ rights in transit countries.AT: Links to Nieto Cred Drones utilize host-state permission—solves Nieto cred? Zenko 13 (Micah. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. Previously. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. think¶ tank. former Air Force¶ deputy chief of staff for intelligence. government officials. nearby search-andrescue forces to recover¶ downed drones.” In fact. you put in a highthreat environment.cfr. current versions lack the speed. The few hundred Predator¶ and Reaper drones that currently conduct distant airstrikes leverage¶ a system-wide infrastructure that includes host-state permission to¶ base drones and associated launch and recovery personnel. at the Brookings Institution. . Drone Strike Policies”. in 1995. http://www. and they’ll start falling¶ from the sky like rain.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) Second. nonpartisan membership organization.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning.¶ DC. stealth.S. business executives.¶ According to Lieutenant General David Deptula. and human intelligence¶ assets on the ground to help identify targets. January 2013. Congressional Research Service.¶ in the countries where nonbattlefield targeted killings have occurred. educators and students.12 To this end. an independent. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). drones have benefited from host-state support. which¶ the United States has helped to secure with extensive side payments¶ in foreign aid and security assistance. “Some of the *drones+ that we have¶ today. the¶ United States takes advantage of relatively permissive environments. U. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).¶ largely unthreatened by antiaircraft guns or surface-to-air missiles. relatively unsophisticated Serbian¶ antiaircraft guns shot down two of the first three Predator drones¶ deployed outside of the United States. satellites or assured access to commercial satellite¶ bandwidth to transmit command-and-control data. and¶ decoy capabilities to protect themselves against even relatively simple¶ air defense systems.S.13 Although the next generation of armed drones¶ should be more resilient.

That included 68% of Republicans.¶ journalists.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington.¶ DC. Candice Miller. an independent. R-Mich. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. Previously. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members.S. "New Drone Radar Reveals Border Patroll 'Gotaways' In High Numbers". 58% of Democrats and 50% of independents.org/content/new-drone-radar-reveals-border-patrol-gotaways-high-numbers) In 2009. where it is intended that the¶ role of the United States Government will not be apparent or acknowledged¶ publicly. think¶ tank. in turn..” she said. Nevertheless. according to a 2011 National Research Council report.pewresearch. “Reforming U. a Customs and Border Protection official. 56% of Americans approved of them while 26% disapproved. fellow at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism. at the Brookings Institution. April 5 2013. the Obama¶ administration has been much more transparent. covers border and national security issues for The Center for Investigative Reporting. .¶ A significant number of Americans did have concerns about whether the strikes endangered civilian lives.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. www. senior editor at the Pew Research Center.¶ defined by law as “an activity or activities .AT: Links to Ptx Solves Ptx—covert Zenko 13 (Micah. strikes by the CIA remain covert.S. May 24 2013. Programs and missions are highly classified. testified before a 2011 House panel of lawmakers that the system demonstrated “significant potential” for helping the agency. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).¶ Mark Borkowski. http://www. opposition abroad". have supported the technology with public statements and budget earmarks totaling millions of dollars.cfr. said in a June hearing that she was “very encouraged” by VADER. the system was deployed along a 31-mile portion of the Arizona border with Mexico over five days using a Customs and Border Protection unmanned aircraft.¶ “This tool is extremely valuable as CBP seeks to identify and detect changing smuggling patterns. business executives. The demonstration was “a great success” as the system identified suspicious activities four out of five nights.¶ Legislators.org/fact-tank/2013/05/24/obama-anddrone-strikes-support-but-questions-at-home-opposition-abroad/) The U. Bipartisan support for drones—the public doesn’t care about legal issues in Congress Drake 13 (Bruce. More than half (53%) were “very” concerned.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) Drone strikes outside of defined battlefields are inherently difficult¶ to assess and analyze. Drone Strike Policies”. In a February survey. the report states.¶ But the survey found less concern about the legal issues that . January 2013.” while drone strikes conducted by JSOC in Yemen or¶ Somalia are publicly reported to Congress as “direct actions. government officials. nonpartisan membership organization. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).15 Solves Ptx—popular Becker 13 (Andrew.S.fronterasdesk. "Obama and drone strikes: Support but questions at home. Rep. . www. In comparison. who leads a House subcommittee on border and maritime security.-Mexico border for a joint New York Times and PBS FRONTLINE/World production. educators and students.” albeit with¶ no specificity. where he reported on human smuggling and corruption along the Southwest U. beginning with its¶ first official acknowledgment of the practice of targeted killings by¶ drones in April 2012.¶ Unlike other controversial counterterrorism programs that expanded¶ in the wake of 9/11. public has consistently supported the use of drone strikes — and that support has been bipartisan. Congressional Research Service. the Bush administration never openly discussed¶ any aspects of its targeted killing policies.

in a letter to Congress. .dominated the debate in Congress. citizen. and said past strikes had killed three other Americans. particularly over the targeted killing in Yemen of radical Muslim Cleric Anwar al-Alwaki who was a U. that it had ordered that drone strike.S. the administration acknowledged for the first time. A day prior to Obama’s speech.

and¶ distinction—to which the United States claims to adhere for its drone¶ strikes—and should be informed by comparable efforts in the realms of¶ cyber and space. rather.S. and strengthening international legal regimes.S. resource exploitation. Congressional Research Service.S. and nuclear weapons. the existence of an international normative¶ framework.S. they would¶ be acceptable only insofar as the limitations placed reciprocally on U. nonpartisan membership organization. rape. President Obama¶ revealed. compliance with that framework. and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members.S. In an interview. without accountability¶ for legal justification. It would¶ be a world in which targeted killings occur with impunity against anyone¶ deemed an “enemy” by states or nonstate actors. a world characterized by the proliferation of armed¶ drones—used with little transparency or constraint—would undermine¶ core U. such as preventing armed conflict. and U. January 2013. “Reforming U. drones are proliferating even as they are¶ becoming increasingly sophisticated.¶ bolstered by a strong U.¶ and State Department’s Office of Policy Planning. biological. promoting¶ human rights. it would be a world where such lethal force no longer¶ heeds the borders of sovereign states. they would internationalize¶ already-necessary domestic policy reforms and.S. lethal.”71¶ History shows that how states adopt and use new military capabilities¶ is often influenced by how other states have—or have not—used¶ them in the past. example. and proportionality. Previously. And even if hostile states do not accept¶ norms regulating drone use. would preserve¶ Washington’s ability to apply diplomatic pressure. and¶ autonomous. report sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). http://www. business executives. Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. freedom of action.72 Norms—sometimes but not always codified as¶ legal regimes—have dissuaded states from deploying blinding lasers¶ and landmines. A well-articulated and internationally supported normative framework. Models for¶ developing such a framework would be based in existing international¶ laws that emphasize the principles of necessity.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-dronestrike-policies/p29736) Beyond the United States. at the Brookings Institution. It is the stated position of the¶ Obama administration that its strategy toward drones will be emulated¶ by other states and nonstate actors. government officials.¶ drones furthered U.¶ journalists. norms can deter states from acquiring¶ new technologies. Furthermore. and disease Mann et al 94 (Jonathan Mann is Frangois-Xavier Bagnoud Professor of Health and Human Rights and Professor of Epidemiology and International Health at the Harvard School of Public Health. as well as chemical.cfr. civilian casualties. (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Lawrence Gostin is . of course. think¶ tank. Because of drones’ inherent¶ advantages over other weapons platforms. stealthy. “I think creating a legal structure. interests. At least a dozen other states and nonstate actors could¶ possess armed drones within the next ten years and leverage the technology¶ in unforeseen and harmful ways. educators and students. an independent. states and nonstate actors¶ would be much more likely to use lethal force against the United States¶ and its allies.Internal NB—International Model Developing a drone framework solves terrorism better and is key to promoting human rights Zenko 13 (Micah.¶ Human rights promotion solves a laundry list of impacts—environment. processes.S. proportionality. can shape armed drone proliferation¶ and employment in the coming decades. objectives. Such norms would not¶ hinder U.¶ In short.¶ he worked for five years at the Harvard Kennedy School and in Washington. Drone Strike Policies”. resilient. with oversight¶ checks on how we use unmanned weapons is going to be a challenge for¶ me and for my successors for some time to come—partly because technology¶ may evolve fairly rapidly for other countries as well.¶ DC. Perhaps¶ more troubling.

¶ text which increases women's vulnerability to rape. For example. Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health. yet they may elude state control. Harvey Fineberg is Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. often in response to horrific and ¶ systematic rights violations. while human rights law primarily focuses on the ¶ relationship between individuals and states. have not been a traditional concern ¶ of human rights law.Troyen Brennan is Professor of Law and Public Health at the Harvard School of Public Health. through regulation of business practices and laws ¶ which offer the opportunity for redress. For example. the twin challenges of human rights promotion ¶ (hopefully preventing rights violations. More recently. Article 28) invokes ¶ broad political issues at the global level. . may strongly influence the capacity for ¶ realization of rights.org/archivespdf/4065260. exploitation of natural resources by business interests may ¶ seriously harm rights of local residents. hhrjournalarchive. awareness is increasing that other societal institutions and systems. attention to this core ¶ concept as a right has only grown in recent years. to a societal con. and the nongovernmental human rights movement tended ¶ to stress protection of rights. analogous to health promotion to prevent disease) and protection (emphasizing accountability and redress for violations. it is increasingly evident ¶ that state policies impacting on the status and role of women ¶ may contribute importantly. both intergovernmental and nongovernmental agencies have recognized and responded to the fundamental interdependence of rights promotion and protection. not state-sponsored.pdf) Since the late 1940s. Zita Lazzarini is a visiting lecturer in the Department of Health Policy and Management at the Harvard School of Public Health. or ¶ at best indirect. In addition. ¶ Second. ¶ Third.Professor of Law. However. human rights advocacy and related ¶ challenges have gradually extended the boundaries of the human ¶ rights movement in four related ways. wider social involvement and participation in human rights struggles is increasingly broadening the language and ¶ uses of human rights concepts. ¶ Finally. certain individual acts. the United Nations system highlighted promotion of ¶ rights.bannered. First. even though ¶ the actual act may be individual. while the grounding of human rights thinking ¶ and practice in law (at national and international levels) remains ¶ fundamental. ¶ Initially. Georgetown University Law Center and Professor of Health Policy. such as rape. yet the governmental ¶ capacity to protect human rights may be extremely limited. analogous to medical care once ¶ disease has occurred) have often been approached separately. such as ¶ transnational business. "Health and Human Rights". Sofia Gruskin is Research Associate at the Fran9ois-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health and Human Rights. even if indirectly. except when resulting from systematic state ¶ policy (as alleged in Bosnia). although the right to a "social and international order in which ¶ (human rights) can be fully realized" (UDHR. the initial advocacy focus on civil and political rights and certain economic and ¶ social rights is expanding to include concerns about the environment and global socioeconomic development.pdf.

Venezuela Relations .

S. “Setting Priorities for U. http://www. during an international meeting in Guatemala — one of the highest level meetings between officials of the two countries in years. Samantha Power. the ¶ relationship with Iran. New ambassador solves better – allows effective and authoritative communication Arnson 13 – Director of the Latin America Program at the Wilson Center (Cynthia.org/sites/default/files/setting_priorities_for_us_policy_in_latin_america. said that part of her role as ambassador would be to challenge a “crackdown on civil society” in several countries. “Venezuela Stops Efforts to Improve U. . Venezuela ¶ expelled the U.1NC Text: the United States federal government should fire Samantha Power and reinstate a United States ambassador for Venezuela Solves relations – Power killed progress – firing her would allow room to resume talks Neuman 7-20 – NYT Venezuela correspondent (William.pdf) Second.S. NYT. diplomat nominated as a replacement. July 20 of 2013. U. President Nicolás Maduro had already lashed out on Thursday at Ms.S. the United ¶ States responded in kind. Venezuela — Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round of off-again-on-again efforts to improve relations with the United States in reaction to comments by the Obama administration’s nominee for U nited N ations ambassador . including Venezuela. ambassador in 2008.wilsoncenter.S.Venezuelan relationship ¶ out of the deep freeze now that the post-Chávez era ¶ is around the corner.¶ ¶ The nominee. Power for her remarks. and Venezuela subsequently rejected a U. Elías Jaua.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuelastops-efforts-to-improve-us-relations. Policy in latin America”. democracy itself—but diplomacy at the highest level is better than its absence. speaking before a Senate committee on Wednesday. interests in Venezuela are ¶ better served by having a confirmed ambassador in ¶ Caracas who is seen as speaking authoritatively for ¶ the administration. There is no guarantee that an ambassador will be able to overcome the many difficult ¶ issues on the bilateral agenda—drug trafficking.S. efforts to restore diplomatic recognition at ¶ the ambassadorial level should continue.¶ Those efforts had inched forward just last month after Secretary of State John Kerry publicly shook hands with the Venezuelan foreign minister. January 2013. Relations”.html) CARACAS.S. The State Department has rightly renewed ¶ efforts to move the U.nytimes. and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said that it was terminating efforts to improve relations with the United States. http://www.

If they respect us.au/node/54582) ¶ The conversations started in June between Venezuela and the United States have definitively ended. http://www. Russia. Powers testified to the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on July 17.”¶ ¶ The announcement comes after controversial statements from Samantha Powers.¶ ¶ Maduro said: “I told Jaua to convey to Kerry [in June] that we are ready to have relations within the framework of equality and respect.¶ ¶ “To the contrary.¶ ¶ However. as the UN has recognised on multiple occasions. and Venezuela”. “Venezuela: 'Zero tolerance to gringo aggression' — Maduro ends US talks”. don't involve yourselves anymore in Venezuela. Stay over there with your empire.org. whether it be verbal. we respect them. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced on July 20 at an event of the Strategic Regions of Integral Defense (REDI) in Cojedes state. relations cooled after Bolivian President Evo Morales’ presidential plane was prevented from entering the airspace of four European countries after false information that US whistleblower Edward Snowden was on board.”¶ ¶ Jaua spoke with US Secretary of State John Kerry in a meeting in Guatemala in June that Kerry described as the “beginning of a good. political.¶ ¶ “Enough is enough.2NC – Power Solves Relations Solves relations – firing Powers would signal to Venezuela that they will respect Venezuela Bercovitch 7-23 – staff writer for the Green Left Weekly (Sascha. President Barack Obama’s nominee for US envoy to the United Nations. during which she said she would fight against a “crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba.” Maduro said. in Latin America in general and in particular with us. or diplomatic. respectful relationship”.¶ ¶ In a statement written on July 19 that marks the last communication between the two countries. “I'm not going to accept any aggression.” . Iran.¶ ¶ “But the time has run out for them to meddle in the internal affairs of our countries and publically attack us.greenleft. ¶ ¶ “My policy is zero tolerance to gringo aggression against Venezuela. Their time has run out. Venezuela has amply demonstrated that it possesses a robust system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the unrestricted practice and the respect of fundamental human rights. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua wrote: “The preoccupation expressed by the US government regarding the supposed repression of civil society in Venezuela is unacceptable and unfounded . It further cooled with Maduro’s offer of political asylum to Snowden. July 23 of 2013.

¶ Appointing ambassadors would certainly signal a real intention from both countries to forge a positive relationship.2NC – Ambassador Solves Relations Ambassador signals to Venezuela that the US will support them – spurs better relations Meacham 13 – director of the Americas Program at the CSIS (Carl. http://csis. This also comes at a time when Venezuela is more divided than ever. . this maneuver would be viewed by a critical mass of a very motivated Venezuelan opposition as U. But the timing of this appointment would imply that the Unites States would deny the opposition’s claims of a fraudulent election. although having recognized the Maduro government.-Venezuela Relations?”. In many situations.org/publication/kerry-jaua-meeting-resettingus-venezuela-relations) Last week.S. have recognized the need for an impartial audit of the election results. as well as the urgency of the audit of the election results.¶ Many believe it more appropriate for the United States to prioritize delicate issues such as human rights violations and antidrug policies before being willing to consider reinstating ambassadors. the Washington Post published an editorial that suggested recent U. June 21 of 2013. So rather than serve as an example of a pragmatic posture.S. It also serves as proof of the U. ambassador in countries that have similar conditions to those of Venezuela is not something to be opposed across the board. overtures to Venezuela are something of a lifeline. “The Kerry-Jaua Meeting: Resetting U. having a U. politically and economically. ambassador in a nondemocratic country serves as a symbol to advance our most cherished beliefs.S.S. government’s willingness to keep lines of communication open. Having a U. thrown while the Venezuelan government is struggling to maintain its legitimacy and when its neighbors.S. government support for the Maduro government.S.

S. policymakers has been the deterioration of ¶ human rights and democratic conditions.pdf) The death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez on March 5. limited bilateral anti-drug cooperation. after 14 years of ¶ populist rule. While this ¶ might not be possible while Venezuela soon gears up for a presidential campaign. lack of ¶ cooperation on anti-terrorism efforts. there may be an ¶ opportunity in the aftermath of the election. Venezuela: Issues for Congress.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989. U. by Mark P.-Venezuelan relations in the post-Chávez era.-Venezuelan relations. 2013. but there has been ¶ considerable friction in relations under the Chávez government.AT: Links to Politics Diplomatic missions with Venezuela are empirically popular – policymakers support them Sullivan 13 – Specialist in Latin American Affairs (Mark.S.S. but potentially for ¶ the future of U. Relations”. . ¶ Congress has had a strong interest in Venezuela and U.S. ¶ The United States traditionally enjoyed close relations with Venezuela. Among the concerns of U.S. This report provides a brief discussion of those ¶ implications. and Venezuela’s ¶ relations with Cuba and Iran. Venezuela’s significant military arms purchases. http://www. Sullivan. “Hugo Chávez’s Death: Implications for Venezuela and U. relations with Venezuela under the ¶ Chávez government. policymakers have ¶ expressed hope for a new era in U. has implications not only for Venezuela’s political future.S. CRS Report. April 9 of 2013. see CRS ¶ Report R40938. For additional background on President Chávez’s rule and U. policy.S.fas.

freedom of action. actions . . July 16 of 2013. is to entrust the duty of providing it at Turtle Bay to someone who has spent her professional career deriding this country. currently the President of the Center for Security Policy (Frank. Pacific Fleet and U. This includes notably subordinating the use of its military and foreign assistance to UN mandates and circumstances in which we have no national interest. the cumulative effect of such conduct would be to diminish our sovereignty.¶ Power has also been an advocate for various initiatives aimed at restricting U. infringe upon our freedoms and undermine our allies – especially Israel. the oceans. And when there may be a conflict between the “interests of the global commons” (UN-speak for the international community and the parts of the globe over which it asserts authority. having done so.com/Big-Peace/2013/07/16/PowerNo) Allowed to go unchallenged. in 2003. but not the other way around. e.” It is one thing to hear this sort of anti-American propaganda from foreigners who choose to ignore our country’s unsurpassed history of expending vast quantities of lives and national treasure to help secure others’ freedoms. his gesture was gratifying to World War II survivors. of course. she opined: “Influence is best measured not only by military hardware and GDP.Instituting a doctrine of the mea culpa would enhance our credibility by showing that American decision-makers do not endorse the sins of their predecessors. ¶ We urge the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to explore Samantha Power’s problematic record with care during its hearing on her nomination on July 17th and. a formula for allowing the U nited Na tions or “other people’s perceptions” to define the legitimacy of U. For example. When Willie Brandt went down on one knee in the Warsaw ghetto. clearly in her view. That should start with an unwavering commitment to the attributes that have made this country exceptional and great. Samantha Power has for decades found fault with America and its historical role in the world.¶ Power also seems to dismiss blithely the huge contribution made by the United States in response to many international tragedies.g. As she has put it:¶ The United States must cease its reliance on gratuitous unilateralism.¶ Entrusting the job of standing up for America at the UN to someone so ill-. both in the UN and elsewhere. “NEEDED: AN AMERICAN REPRESENTATIVE AT THE UN-NOT SAMANTHA POWER”. to ensure that such a person is not confirmed as our representative to the United Nations. are using our power legitimately…that we are acting in the interests of the global commons and in accordance with the rule of law…. at which the first ones on the scene are often our military personnel. or at least so ill-disposed for that task will be tantamount to unilaterally disarming in not just the war of ideas. http://www. foes seek to do to her. like the fictional Lilliputians did with Gulliver. the United States.. and an equally clear rejection of what the various transnationalists and other U. or permitted by the United States….¶ The last thing we can afford at a moment when the world needs strong and effective leadership from the United States. or at ill-equipped. sponsored. It will embolden our adversaries to redouble their efforts to use the United Nations as a vehicle for hamstringing this country.S. but also by other people's perceptions that we. America must defer and submit. but it was also ennobling and cathartic for Germany… ¶ In the same essay. President Obama has nominated as the next U. economic and military power has played in denying such freedoms to others. political. the air and even near-earth space). For instance. We make rules and create international institutions precisely in order to bind states when their short-term interests would otherwise lead them toward defection…¶ It is no exaggeration to observe that Samantha Power would make a perfect representative of the United Nations to the United States.breitbart.S.S. defaming it and seeking to circumscribe its power wherever possible. providing assistance and asking nothing in return.S.S.S. First-hand experience like Admiral Lyons’ with the UN makes clear that fighting such efforts requires a firm grasp of what is at stake. she wrote in the New Republic:¶ We need: a historical reckoning with crimes committed.¶ Unfortunately. It would be totally unacceptable in our representative at the UN. Power declared that: “Much antiAmericanism derives from the role U. ambassador to the United Nations someone whose record indicates she is unsuited for the job in both regards. James Lyons was Commander-in-Chief.Turns Case Power kills US legitimacy – even perception turns the case Gaffney et al 13 – Formerly the Assistant Secretary of Defense under Reagan.”¶ This is . In fact. Military Representative to the United Nations. as recently as 2008. Such sentiments should be considered absolute disqualifiers for the position of one of our nation’s most visible diplomats.

**Affirmative** .

During the ¶ 2008/2009 season. soy was cultivated ¶ on 2.384 ¶ hectares to 6. Other sectors¶ or industries. 2010). the cultivation of soybeans on ¶ illegally cleared land increased nearly five-fold from 1. ABIOVE found that soy was being illegally cultivated on 0. monitoring by ¶ the Brazilian Oilseed Processors Association (ABIOVE) ¶ found that deforestation is continuing apace. however.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Research_and_projects/Research_networks/LDPI/LDPI_WP_23.43 Importantly. for example. The Union of Concerned Scientists points out that at least part of the continued growth¶ in soy production after the moratorium was due to increased productivity rather than expansion¶ (Boucher. First. it ¶ has not come close to stopping it . there are concerns that as the direct causal relationship between soy production and¶ deforestation declines in importance. point out several reasons to be cautious about this impact over the short and long¶ term. February of 2011. 2010). but during the 2009/2010 season. suggesting¶ That the benefits of intensification are likely to have a time limited effect.foodandwaterwatch. they may ¶ purchase them further downstream. pdf) Closing the yield gap and Indirect links and ‘Leakage’ occur whereby deforestation is not reduced. the indirect influences bear greater attention. pushing cattle production – not subject to the¶ soy moratorium –into newly deforested regions(Barona et al. Leakage may occur into countries or regions with more relaxed environmental¶ legislation and enforcement. Environmental and Social Impacts”.¶ But simply displaced¶ Once the soy moratorium was put in place. has been¶ assigned much of the blame for deforestation rates that were once reserved for soy. Licker et al.iss.. the illegally cultivated soybeans enter the soy marketplace. Indeed. http://documents.1 percent of the land it monitored.org/doc/EUsoyFeb2011. Cattle production. 2005). “Shifting the debate about ‘responsible soy’ production in Paraguay A critical analysis of five claims about environmental. 2011:8. Doesn’t stop cultivation – companies still buy the soy FWE 11 – Food and Water Europe (“The Perils of the Global Soy Trade Economic. many researchers illustrated its positive influence of¶ reducing Amazonian deforestation(Rudorff et al..42 While the land ¶ ABIOVE monitored doubled. As this ‘yield gap’ is closed. can mediate effects of leakage. Brazilian and Paraguayan yields per hectare were improved to levels comparable¶ to the US – where the highest productivity levels are found (Table 3).¶ “the potential gain from ‘catching up’ is reduced” (Boucher. economic.300 hectares.pdf) While the moratorium has slowed down deforestation. implied leakage of deforestation to other regions and ecosystems or¶ via other sectors.. Soy production is distanced¶ from deforestation. . and social sustainability”. This however. For example. 2011). March of 2013. neglects the expansion of soy onto former pasture. ¶ Calculations the author is using are of soy cropland and production data (MAG. but is still part of the broad causal relationship. many authors raised alarm bells that the continued growth of the soy industry combined¶ with decreasing deforestation. http://www.8 percent of the cleared land it monitored.Amazon Doesn’t solve – it only displaces deforestation elsewhere and disregards other sectors Elgert 13 – Assistant Professor in Social Science and Policy Studies and Environmental and Sustainability Studies at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts (Lauren.¶ the displacement of soy expansion from tropical forests to savannahs has been highlighted(Merry¶ Baker & Small. even alongside increasing soy production.¶ Secondly.¶ Others. 2010). or to ecosystems not protected by existing enforcement. 2011).¶ Finally. While major ¶ companies may not buy them right off the land. for instance.

The results from the three models – ordinary least squares (OLS). Much of its expansion has taken place in the Amazon. The Brazilian Amazon has more than 214. Most of the beef is destined for urban markets. such as the expansion of soy production in a settled agricultural area.¶ INFRASTRUCTURE—Road construction gives developers and ranchers access to previously inaccessible forest lands in the Amazon.¶ "We estimate that a 10% reduction of soy in old pasture areas would have decreased deforestation by as much as 40% in heavily forested counties of the Brazilian Amazon between 2003 and 2008." he told environmental research web. reducing the competitiveness of Brazilian beef overseas. “Indirect effect hampers Brazil's 'soy moratorium' from protecting forest”.Prefer peer-reviewed statistics – the counterplan doesn’t stop soy production or Amazon destruction Anscombe 11 – science journalist based with degree in photonics (Nadya. The weakness of the real also made Brazilian beef more competitive on the world market. Infrastructure improvements can reduce the costs of shipping and packing beef. This has been the case since at least the 1970s: government figures attributed 38 percent of deforestation from 1966-1975 to largescale cattle ranching. an open space larger than France. http://environmentalresearchweb.¶ However. not been measured and quantified. Doesn’t address the leading cause of deforestation Mangabay no date – Tropical rainforest conservation and environmental science news (“Amazon Destruction: Why is the rainforest being destroyed in Brazil?”. Today the figure is closer to 60 percent . May 25 of 2011.¶ CONTROL OVER FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE—The eradication of foot-and-mouth disease in much of Brazil has increased price and demand for Brazilian beef.6 million in 1990 and equivalent to more than 85 percent of the total U. until now. which has been published in Environmental Research Letters (ERL). "We introduced a time-lag into one of the models as landuse change is not an immediate effect. "The main challenge is that the areas of interest are often separated by large distances. But this has changed since 2004 as the real as strengthened. ¶ Brazil is today the world's largest exporter and producer of beef. whereas leather and other cattle products are primarily for export markets. this does not have a direct effect on deforestation and is in keeping with Brazil's "Soy Moratorium". due to the high price of pasture land. fixed-effects without time lag for soy (FE1). and also implemented a new statistical methodology capable of linking frontier deforestation to distant events. afford to purchase up to five times the amount of forestry land and turn it into pasture.000 square miles of pasture. while larger and more modern slaughterhouses have made cattle processing more efficient . according to research by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and its Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). ¶ Several factors have spurred recent Brazil's growth as a producer of beef:¶ CURRENCY DEVALUATION—In the 1980s and 1990s the devaluation of the Brazilian real against the dollar effectively doubled the price of beef in reals and created an incentive for ranchers to expand their pasture areas at the expense of the rainforest. http://rainforests.¶ This indirect connection between soy production and deforestation has been hypothesized for many years." explained Arima.html#ag) Cattle ranching is the leading cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. up from 26. and fixed effects with time lag for soy (FE2) – are shown in the figure. from University of Texas at Austin in the US and lead author of the study. which currently has more than 80 million head of cattle. "This shows that the voluntary moratorium on primary forest conversions by Brazilian soy farmers has failed to stop the deforestation effects of expanding soy production.com/amazon/amazon_destruction.mongabay.S. herd."¶ Arima and his colleagues used three different models to estimate this phenomenon of indirect land-use change. an agroindustry-led initiative to limit deforestation by stopping direct encroachments of soy-fields into closed moist forest. the rancher who has sold his land to the soy farmer can now." said Eugenio Arima. but has.org/cws/article/news/46082) When a soy farmer buys pasture and turns it to soy production.

whose introspective. www. replied that he wanted a suspension of all sanctions in exchange for only a temporary halt to 20% uranium enrichment.¶ Mr Rohani seems pragmatic enough to know that Iran needs relief from sanctions to revive its economy.economist. have an interest in demonstrating that the diplomatic path to a solution has not yet reached a dead-end. he showed a degree of flexibility that was depressingly absent in the most recent talks between Iran and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members plus Germany (P5+1). As the Islamic Republic’s nuclear negotiator for nearly two years from October 2003.¶ Even if Mr Rohani wanted to do the kind of deal that would be acceptable to the West (and there is nothing in his past to suggest that he might). "The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program". suspicious view of the world outside Iran has not changed. the offer represented a slight softening of the six powers’ position. rather than its closure. June 22 2013. Despite the severe economic pain that the tightening of sanctions has inflicted on Iran’s people and their evident desire for change. Iran’s strategic calculus has not shifted. September 1 2010.usip. the absence of progress up to now has kept the international community lined up behind sanctions. Can’t solve credibility—internal divisions Chubin 10 (Shahram. has raised hopes for a nuclear deal between Iran and the international community. Iran is close to what is known as “critical capability”—the point at which it could make a dash to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one or more bombs before the IAEA or Western intelligence agencies would even know it had done so. the continuation of talks is a means of getting some easing of sanctions in exchange for concessions that will have little impact on its nuclear programme. the fifth of the current round of negotiations. were in early April and ended on a downbeat note. Since the 1979 revolution. Intended as a prelude to a more far-reaching deal. iranprimer. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. the guiding hand behind Iran’s nuclear policy will remain that of the supreme leader. The nuclear programme is worth almost any sacrifice because it guarantees the regime’s survival against external threats.¶ Yet the inconvenient truth is that while the talks seem destined to continue.Credibility Can’t solve credibility—Iran won’t compromise over nuclear power The Economist 13 ("Breaakout beckons".org/resource/politics-irans-nuclear-program) Nuclear politics¶ Iran’s nuclear program unfolded in context of its overall politics . the most moderate and outward-looking of the presidential candidates deemed fit to contest the election by the supreme leader. the change in Iran’s top civilian office is unlikely to bring an end to the interminable Iranian nuclear crisis. Both sides.¶ Iran’s negotiator. Nevertheless. by allowing Iran to keep a small amount of uranium enriched to 20% (for use in a reactor to make medical isotopes) and calling only for the suspension of enrichment at Fordow. and that a more constructive negotiating stance on the nuclear programme will be needed to get that.¶ Mr Rohani’s election means the next round of negotiations will be conducted in a better atmosphere. Iran’s political elite has long been divided over how the theocracy should evolve and what international role . For America and its allies. For Iran. a plant buried deep within a mountain.¶ The last set of talks between the P5+1 and Iran. preferring to avoid a military confrontation. The die is already cast: nothing is likely to stop Iran getting the bomb if and when it decides it wants one.com/news/briefing/21579815-neither-iranselection-nor-sanctions-nor-military-threats-are-likely-divert-it-path) THE resounding victory of Hassan Rohani. Geneva-based specialist on Iranian politics and a non-resident senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But to what end? The answer is that the process serves a purpose for everybody. Saeed Jalili (an unsuccessful presidential candidate close to Mr Khamenei). as America’s differing policies towards Libya and North Korea illustrate. They followed a proposal in February to allow a modest easing of sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme and more comprehensive inspections by the IAEA. an impossible demand.

¶ ¶ For the public. But the program has not been subjected to informed debate or public discussion about its ultimate goals. Consensus ends where specifics begin. there appeared to be a general consensus among the political elite about the need or right to proceed. Beyond broad concepts. It was also popular because the regime depicted it as an assertion of Iran’s rights against foreign arrogance. and the relationship with Iran’s other objectives . The nuclear issue is increasingly a reflection of this basic division. self-reliance and social justice. or whether it should settle down and become a normal state that plays by international rules. the consensus appeared to be crumbling. The most fundament difference is whether Iran should continue as a revolutionary state willing to defy the world. Iran’s nuclear program had become a domestic political football. the nuclear program also initially enjoyed broad popular support since it promised energy independence and scientific progress. such as independence. ¶ ¶ Throughout the program’s early stages. consensus has proven elusive—even three decades after the Islamic Republic’s birth. . the costs. Rival factions in Iran’s political labyrinth began to criticize the nuclear program’s costs and centrality to Iran’s development goals. But by 2005.it should pursue.

The government has acknowledged the challenge of reigniting productive sectors of the economy to some degree in the Guidelines. and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions. Its poor export performance and chronic deficits in merchandise trade have produced poor savings and investment rates.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve. foreign assistance.pdf+ . and large infrastructure projects. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. while dramatic compared to decades of inertia. leading to de-capitalization of productive sectors. While long-standing investments in human development have led to a booming service sector. Productive sectors of the economy will become more competitive and efficient only if state-owned enterprises are given greater autonomy in labor and pricing policies. distorted pricing. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas.Cuba Economy External investment fails – multiple structural barriers to the economy Laverty ’11 [2011. but has yet to introduce concrete policy solutions to get this underway. Cuba’s presence on the Terror list prevents much possible US investment Laverty ’11 [2011. neither the industrial nor agricultural sectors have recovered to pre-1989 levels. This designation subjects Cuba to sanctions including restrictions on U.S.pdf+ Cuba should also be removed from the U. because it punishes Cuba for legal trade and financial transactions and deprives its people access to modern technology. do not address a fundamental shortcoming of the Cuban economy: its inability to produce goods to consume at home and export abroad. Economists contend that Cuba needs to develop policies to attract increased foreign investment in productive sectors and adjust domestic investment schemes so that more funds are directed toward farms and factories. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas.S. Current Cuban law allows for foreign investment in nearly any sector of the economy and the document calls for seeking increased investment in the sugar industry and developing special economic zones.pdf+ The Guidelines and measures thus far. aside from development of golf courses and accompanying villas. low wages and high production costs. no significant new joint-venture projects have yet been announced. and compounding Cuba‟s inability to attract significant investment from abroad to offset its large external debt. Collin Laverty is a Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas. “Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy”http://democracyinamericas. State Department list of State Sponsors of Terrorism. controls over exports of certain dual use items. Cuba‟s production lags behind that of many of its Caribbean neighbors. and reforms made in the 1990s led to a profitable tourism sector.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve. The country is unable to generate wealth by expanding or creating new goods-producing industries due to low investment in manufacturing and agriculture. He should do so. Cuba‟s presence on the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism is both substantively wrong132 and harmful to the Cuban economy. they do not outline clear policy steps to make those goals reality. Links to Ptx Laverty ’11 [2011. Although the Guidelines call for increased investment in productive sectors and participation of foreign capital. However. and forced to go under when unprofitable. The president can remove Cuba unilaterally from the terror list.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve.

None of these actions would sit well with the hardest of the hardliners community in the Cuban American or their representatives in Washington. legislators including Representatives Mario Díaz-Balart. . Their terms of surrender for Cuba. embargo. dialing back family travel and remittances to the levels imposed by President Bush.S. In Congress. are trying to reverse President Obama‟s travel reforms. David Rivera and others.134 They will certainly fight actions that loosen restrictions to help push along Cuba‟s economic reforms. as Phil Peters pointed out in his Cuban Triangle Blog. are written into the statutes of the U.

Regulating a pot industry is even harder. voters in Washington state passed Initiative 502 last fall in a general ballot. take "coresponsibility" and pay individual countries for every drug raid or plant eradicated -. a former Microsoft corporate strategy manager. Latin Americans are far from united on decriminalization or any other single solution. if there is excess demand for licenses. and it is possible that the regulators will cap the number of licenses per holder. was "ready to have a good dialogue between all countries to hear their views. the Washington Liquor Board has regulatory control over the new marijuana industry.mandating that the U. Nevertheless.S.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/29/legalizing-marijuana-is-hardregulating-a-pot-industry-is-even-harder/] It‟s not every day that a former Microsoft executive holds a press conference to announce his new venture into the exciting and profitable world of drug dealing.S. which cost $1. .000 each. is how aggressively regulators should try to check the market power of front-line sellers. As with alcohol. Adam Siegel is a researcher in Eurasia Group's Latin America practice." though he reiterated that U .such as the creation of a regional Central American court for trying traffickers that would reduce local corruption and relieve pressure on national justice systems. which has passed a bill to expand its medical marijuana industry and make pot legally available to everyone. a marijuana firm is classified as a producer. where he focuses on financial regulation. If Guatemala's Perez Molina gets his way. Latin American leaders warn that Washington has asked them to take tough choices over the years. Mike Konczal is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. Market forces will cause the regulations to fail Konczal ’13 [6/29/13. “Legalizing marijuana is hard. As such. therefore. some could be endorsed by the U. But that‟s exactly what happened earlier this month when Jamen Shively.” http://www. creating a statewide legal market in pot. from Vice President Joe Biden to Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega. As of now. the coordinator of Obama's trip to Colombia recently indicated that the U. The first question. processor or retailer. He writes a weekly column for Wonkblog. inequality and unemployment. As Chris Marr of the Liquor Control Board argued.Drug Trafficking Nobody will like this Siegel ’12 *3/27/12. but the gathering in Cartagena will make clear that they have become increasingly willing and able to propose new ideas they know that Washington won't like .” http://eurasia. we'll even see him start discussions on a formal drug transit corridor for moving cocaine between South America and the United States. -. and they want to see the U.S. what can economics inform us about how this new market should be set up? To provide some background. “How do you prevent a Microsoft millionaire from getting this idea and deciding that — playing by the rules — they‟re going to dominate the market?” And if that is the concern.don't stand a chance.washingtonpost. legal marijuana industry. they will be subject to lottery. All this is happening at the same time that the Washington State Liquor Control Board is looking to finalize rules on the new. announced that he wants to create the equivalent of Starbucks in the newly legalized pot industry in Washington state. have rejected the decriminalization proposals out of hand.S. “America’s drug war partners are speaking their minds. demonstrate the political courage to consider a few of their own. Of the suggestions offered at the Guatemala conference last weekend.com/posts/2012/03/27/america_s_drug_war_partners_are_speaking_their _minds?wp_login_redirect=0] Other leaders. opposition to any legalization will not change . Follow him on Twitter here. And one of the major debates right now among board members is how much they ought to prevent or encourage the kind of market consolidation in which a few firms dominate the whole industry. Unlike Colorado. Obama's challenge at the Summit will be to offer policy alternatives to the status quo.foreignpolicy. Licenses can‟t be traded in a secondary market. Washington is folding pot under regulations for the liquor industry.S. while others -.

” A third argument comes from University of Chicago economics professor E. A market with smaller. problem user of a product (rather than a specific brand) will all go to that firm. the medical marijuana market won‟t be taxed.” It is possible the normal interactions between bu sinesses that allow them to thrive — things like having a legal bank account — won‟t be immediately available. which Kleiman considers. Under Washington state law. “An alcoholic trying to quit drinking will pass by alcohol in bars. and the market for pot that is being created in Washington state is no exception. in practice it means that it will be very difficult to put pot retailers in dense population spaces. “often ethnic restaurants cluster into neighborhoods so that people can find the best places. As with the tobacco industry. (Given that pot is still illegal at the federal level. earning substantial profits.” Kleiman thinks the main issue with regard to pot retailers‟ ultimate location has more to do with advertising and discretion than anything else. this isn‟t likely to happen). “In the real world. It‟s important to get these issues right because they interact with the three background constraints on this new market. in which dealers are required to grow 70 percent of what they sell (as that is how the medical marijuana system works). Markets are constructed through laws and regulations. the bigger issue Kleim an emphasizes is whether storefronts and signs aggressively advertise their product. of course. teen arcade game center. which enforces laws that still make pot illegal. recreation center. Glen Weyl. (The black market is.” Second.The law also requires regulation for public safety and public health. Another possibility. But that could be a good thing for the pot industry. For some reason. is a major problem. “If a firm has market power. but that is the logical consequence of forcing dealers away from a convenience model. He argues that “long-term players who have market power have an incentive to get people addicted. since marijuana is banned at the federal level. creating ethnic neighborhoods.000 feet away from a school. not taxed at all. fragmented firms with greater turnover would be a check on this dynamic. spending here will increase their market share by creating additional problem users. requires pot retailers to be at least 1. billboards and grocery stores. . “The idea is to prevent the retail industry from becoming so large that they have enough wealth and power to roll over anyone trying to enforce. while the second is the legal medical marijuana market. They also cannot deduct business expenses from their federal taxes. State lawmakers are currently trying to get the medical marijuana market folded under the same regulations that the Liquor Board is creating for the legal pot market. and Mark Kleiman notes that police may need to escalate crackdowns on illegal distribution as they legalize the market. If that‟s the case. This. pot consumers might just stick with medical marijuana or the black market. This is meant to fragment the v ertical chain of production.000 feet within certain buildings. Retailers might be limited to industrial or largely depopulated areas. new pot retailers “often cannot conduct their businesses through banks. Weyl suggests some sort of mandatory turnover policy to discourage firms from turning people into problem users. while the new legal market will be taxed around 25 percent. Both Weyl and Kleiman argue that Washington should consider bolder ideas to regulate the industry. consolidated firms may that they themselves pose threats to public health. The first is the black market. Safe profit margins mean that a firm might be less likely to compete on price for every potential consumer — and also much more likely to follow the law. As Jack Finlaw explains.” If a marijuana firm has a monopoly. Do we want a „pot town‟ to grow up in o ur cities? Perhaps not. A monopolist. a University of Washington professor and author of the forthcoming book “Marijuana Nation. or if the location restrictions prove too inconvenient. The first is that firms with market power could go outside the market and use their extensive profits and influence to exert political power. back ground laws will probably hurt the scale and efficiency of pot retailers. is to create a state-run nonprofit retail firm that has no interest in creating problem users or expanding the market. voters don‟t want firms m arketing and selling pot to underage users. playground. Though this may sound minor. A third constraint is the federal government.” says UCLA public policy professor Mark Kleiman. it can‟t be a producer as well as a processor. The regulators see how the consolidated alcohol industry is able to avoid taxation and accountability and are determined to avoid these problems in the new pot industry. transit center or library. If legalization is seen as a disaster. As Weyl notes. then the financial gains of turning someone into a heavy.) Note that if the price goes too high. if a firm is a retailer. Thus this market may help economists understand a crucial role of regulations that has lapsed in recent decades: the role of government in curbing the excess power of the private sector. That could force what economists who study spatial models of economies call the agglomeration model — as when certain kinds of restaurants all cluster together to create an area people go to for certain goods. it is possible that the federal government will move to shut down the process by preempting state law. And public health officials are concerned about companies marketing to “problem users” who would like to quit or reduce their usage but find themselves unable to. combined with lobbying efforts that will rival the alcohol industry in terms of avoiding taxes and adjusting the rules. then perhaps having pot dealers with large market power is a good idea. That person uses up a lot of emotional energy always having to say no.” Instead of focusing on 1. The law in Washington. as they are sure to reap all those rewards. day-care facility. and it contrasts with Colorado‟s system. But even if it doesn‟t.” says Roger Roffman. Yet people involved with the Washington law have two main responses to this. Economists usually consider monopolists a problem because they produce too little of a product and charge too much for it. as currently structured. Market consolidation is also an issue when it comes to a firm‟s vertical structure. in particular. has a big incentive to advertise to get people addicted over the long-term. expand or update the public-health-focused rules that are designed to protect the public‟s health and safety. the profits they get from selling above market costs means that they can have a bigger marketing department. Another related economic issue is the location of pot retailers.

Now the field is being overtaken by Mexican cartels. a cartel member — most often from Los Zetas and La Familia Michoacana. working with associates north of the border to sell the oil to American companies at huge markups. The market used to be dominated by terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. The national oil company. cartels are also moving into extortion. in recent years cartels have used an extensive portfolio of rackets and scams to diversify their income. Doing so would free up a significant amount of jail space. Pemex. court time and law enforcement resources. with the targets ranging from businessmen to migrants. Legalization would move that trade into the open market. Still. politicians and activists.” New York Times. http://www. if marijuana makes up 60 percent of the cartels‟ profits. like Edgardo Buscaglia. Another new source of cartel revenue is oil theft. it‟s unlikely that Mexican cartels would close up shop in the event of legalization. a former officer and investigative special agent in the Air Force. but it would do little to hinder the long-term economics of the cartels — and the violent toll they take on Mexican society. We need to stop viewing casual users as criminals. who operated in the triborder area of Argentina. A cartel representative will approach the owner of a business — whether a pharmacy or a taco stand — demanding a monthly stipend for “protection. If marijuana were legalized. as organized crime groups did in the United States after the repeal of Prohibition. kidnapped or killed. Now the cartels are getting involved in this business. they used to kidnap rivals.” “Legalization Won’t Kill the Cartels. Unfortunately. fuels the country‟s vicious cartels and smugglers. For example. . informants and incompetent subordinates to punish. Indeed. Plus. is the author of the forthcoming book “Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars. In 2009 a federal court convicted an American businessman of helping to funnel $2 million in petroleum products stolen from Pemex by a Mexican cartel. they argue. Sylvia Longmire. two of the largest and most diversified cartels — will tell a music-store owner that he has to sell CDs with the Zetas logo stamped on them. But cartels derive a growing slice of their income from other illegal activities . eventually selling it to a Texas chemical plant owned by the German chemical company BASF. The chemical company claims never to have known where the products came from. legalization would deliver a significant short-term hit to the cartels — if drug trafficking were the only activity they were engaged in. This is not to say that drug legalization shouldn‟t be considered for other reasons. Noncompliance isn‟t an option. there‟s no reason the cartels couldn‟t enter the legal market for the sale of marijuana. say that cartels earn just half their income from drugs. that still leaves another 40 percent. For example.nytimes. it‟s not that easy.” If those payments aren‟t made on time. is stop the violence in Mexico. driving down the price and undermining the cartels‟ power a nd influence. which includes the sale of methamphetamine. and brown-powder and black-tar heroin.html?_r=0] Legalization FOR a growing number of American policy makers. cocaine. the best answer to the spiraling violence in Mexico is to legalize the marijuana that.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19longmire. long a problem for the Mexican government. kidnapping has become their second-most-lucrative venture. With so many lines of business.Legalization fails to solve the drug war – multiple warrants Longmire ’11 [6/18/11. Brazil and Paraguay. Taking another page from traditional organized crime. What it won‟t do. the cartels would still make huge profits from the sale of these other drugs. After all. the business is often burned to the ground. and like any legitimate company the best are able to adapt in the face of a changing market. according to official estimates. and we need to treat addicts as people with health and emotional problems. exact revenge or send a message. Now that they have seen that people are willing to pay heavy ransoms. A popular cartel racket involves branded products. DVDs and software that many legitimate companies no longer even bother to distribute their full-price products in parts of Mexico. marijuana constitutes 60 percent of cartels‟ drug profits. though. or the owner is threatened. Cartels are also moving into the market in pirated goods in Latin America. Some experts on organized crime in Latin America. For one thing. with the cartel taking a 25 percent cut of the profits. loses hundreds of millions of dollars‟ worth of petroleum every year to bandits and criminal gangs who tap into pipelines and siphon it off. which already have so much control over the sale of pirated CDs. Cartels are economic entities. even if it meant a serious drop in profits from their most successful product. Marijuana legalization has many merits.

11 Morris Panner. has reported that the local committee has lost approximately 40 percent of its production.” http://www. its influence has spread all the way to Petén in northern Guatemala. Other businesses are much more lucrative for drug traffickers Bolton ’12 [10/16/12.Legalization doesn’t solve – other elicit activities garner much more revenue Lara [Tania Lara is a second-year Master of Global Policy Studies student at the LBJ School of Public Affairs.14 It appears that these industries are growing as a result of continuing U. provides an interesting case study in illustrating this point. would charge fees to smuggle groups of migrants through Mexico and into the United States. Ultimately. the Mexican state-owned oil company. either as a growth or survival strategy. Because of their substantial drug profits. a former U. “Drug War Continues to Spark Tensions Between U.. Its main businesses include oil theft.com/2013/01/07/u-s-marijuana-laws-ricochet-through-latinamerica/] . criminal organizations in Mexico and Central America profit not only from drug trafficking. kidnappings. As an example. “coyotes. Los Zetas completely transformed the human smuggling industry. Los Zetas gained control of the Guatemalan human smuggling market.6 billion USD according to the U. or $750 million USD.coha. “DRUG LEGALIZATION IN LATIN AMERICA: COULD IT BE THE ANSWER?” http://www. if drugs are legalized in the Americas but remain illegal in the U.com/op-ed/global-policy-studies-and-international-security/drug-war-continuesspark-tensions-between-us] It is naive to think that decriminalizing drugs is going to end violence in the Americas.com. According to the Guatemalan Human Rights Commission.time. Crime rates are usually the result of economic disparities.”15 It appears DTOs are able to expand into other illicit markets because of their substantial drug trade revenues. On the other hand. more extensive agenda. Los Zetas could smuggle hundreds of migrants in armored vehicles across the border. Today such smuggling is Los Zetas‟ second most lucrative activity. high unemployment rates and weak and corrupt law enforcement agencies. And finally. Legalization will not solve any of these issues . human trafficking. Aflonso Serrano is a Senior Editor at Time.10 The estimated industry value of migrant smuggling in Latin America today is $6. extortion and brothels. CP solves Latin American relations – all leaders want this Serrano ‘13 *1/7/13.S. he does conclude that criminal organizations are “pursuing a larger. kidnap ransoming is valued between $200 million and $500 million USD annually. federal crime prosecutor. report on crime globalization. “U.N.12 For example. to oil theft in cartel-controlled territory. He goes on to imply that the entire business model for Latin American organized crime is in a transitional period. Instead.” independent human smugglers. While coyotes could only smuggle scarcely more than twenty migrants at a time.S. Gene Bolton is a research associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. and Central America. Marijuana Laws Ricochet Through Latin America.S.13 While other figures are difficult to estimate.” http://world. drug demand and DTO incubation. PEMEX. having grown in no small part from Los Zetas.S. While Panner does not adequately address the potential impact of widespread drug legalization.S. criminal organizations from Latin America will keep fighting between each other to reach the profitable American market. suggests that the trend of DTOs exploring new “business” ventures is far more pervasive than their drug trade involvement. Mexico‟s infamous Zetas organization is rarely involved in drug trafficking. human smuggling was not a part of organized criminal networks before Los Zetas began targeting the industry. in which these organizations are diversifying ways to earn money. lower educational levels. killing anyone attempting to travel beyond their control. but also from other illegal activities. The Mexican DTO decided to venture into migrant smuggling in an effort to increase its profits.org/druglegalization-in-latin-america-could-it-be-the-answer/] Los Zetas.lbjjournal. a Mexican drug cartel.

could generate more violence in the region. But the notion that drug cartels would suffer mammoth losses remains an open question.-produced marijuana.S. and therefore of power. cartels generate an estimated $15 billion annually from human trafficking. experts fear. meth production by flooding the market with the synthetic drug.A major concern centers on drug cartels. just like any legal enterprise. Estimates of Mexican cartel profits from marijuana sales to the U. producing it on a mass scale in northern Guatemala. Besides marijuana profits.. Oil theft has surged in recent years. according to Mexican studies. but no impact is likely to be felt anytime soon. It also underestimates the growing sophistication of Mexican criminal groups.” Whether the U.” Edgardo Buscaglia. U. preying on Central and South American migrants making their way north toward the U. Still.S. organized through the U. an organized-crime expert and senior research scholar at Columbia University.S. . laws will undercut cartels at all remains to be seen. tells TIME. netting cartels roughly $500 million annually.S. vary from $2 billion to $20 billion annually. “The [U. And recent studies suggest that the Colorado and Washington pot laws could dent cartel profits loss of revenue.] marijuana laws will have absolutely no impact on criminal group‟s balance sheets. by up to 30% given the probable emergence of cheaper. aimed at changing drug-war tactics. Mexico‟s state-owned oil behemoth. the Washington and Colorado referendum results have reshaped the drug-war debate in Latin America.S. That emboldening regional leaders to press for a global discussion on drug policy. Criminal gangs are also increasingly relying on Pemex. Mexican cartels have diversified their criminal portfolios with impressive speed since 2006.N. “They have diversified their criminal activity with astounding efficiency.S. for added income. when Calderón began deploying the army against them. Cartels have responded to a recent drop in U. And the methamphetamine market represents another opportunity to supplement any revenue lost to marijuana sales.

¶ The overhaul creates a new regulatory body.wsj. published in the Wall Street Journal. Pena Nieto set the clock running for the drawing up and approval of secondary legislation. High-level negotiations continue on this issue between the Mexican government." Peso devaluation empirically devastates Mexico’s telecom sector Griffith 98 (Kathleen.MX) in order to increase competition and investment in the sector. "Mexican President Signs Telecommunication Reform into Law".vii. we would expect specific rules and regulations to begin taking effect in 2014. June 10 2013. Mexican bureau chief at Dow Jones. Pena Nieto said. DirectorGeneral of Telmex and Carlos Mier y Teran. less than their initial offering price of $27.¶ "We expect that the bill will become effective in substantially its current form. April 30 2013. reporter for Reuters. and potential competitors. . should be reflected in the secondary laws. published author in the field of Telecommunications. mesico's Undersecretary of Communications and Technological Development.¶ In signing the changes in the constitution.htm) The economic crisis that began with the devaluation of the Mexican peso on 19 December 1994 devastated Telmex' share price. quoting America Movil. "If it is approved rapidly.Mexican Econ SQ solves telecom reform—only a matter of time Harrup 13 (Anthony.50 on 8 February 1994. and ability to bypass. which seeks to give Mexicans access to better and cheaper telecommunications services and raise competitiveness in Mexico. SQ solves—Movil says there won’t be changes. A key pronouncement remains pending (as of December 1995): the full interconnection plan. Telmex officials. Jaime Chico pardo. edited by Carlos Casasus. "America Movil sees material impact from Mexico telecom reform"." said America Movil in the filing. SCT had announced interconnection guidelines favorable to new entrants as regards open markets entry.com/article/2013/04/30/us-mexico-americamovil-idUSBRE93T0RE20130430) Once the bill is approved by the Senate.com/article/BT-CO-20130610709564.25 in May 1991 and 76 percent below their high of $75. Before the devaluation. Mr. Mexico's Congress will also need to draw up secondary legislation to implement the new rules. including the ability to apply asymmetric regulation on dominant players and even force them to sell assets. Ifetel. which will have expanded powers. Series L shares traded in New York fell to a low of US$23 on 11 March 1995. www.¶ The crisis may lead to a reprioritization of the terms of deregulation. which Congress has six months to complete. it must be approved by legislatures in the majority of Mexico's states. "Telecommunications in Mexico".reuters. Directior-General of Telecommunications.html MEXICO CITY--Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on Monday signed into law a far-reaching reform of the telecommunications and broadcast industries that aims to curb the market power of companies like America Movil (AMX. leading Mexican telecommunications business.org/papers/mexi. AMX. number of interconnection points. The scope and spirit of the constitutional reform. online. implementation by 2014 Comlay 13 (Elinor. www. Mr.

which measures services and subscribers in the sector. Public policy has sought to substantially reduce the dependence of the operators ¶ with regards to essential facilities of the dominant operator. this is not enough to achieve the appropriation of services among the population.org. Mexican bureau chief at Dow Jones. but still. the shortage of the essential resources(networks. Even if we suppose that telecommunication services will reach every place in this ¶ country. ¶ Recent history shows that the application of all kinds of regulation is legally questioned ¶ 5.¶ 4. May 16 2011. spectrum.¶ Telecommunications have for years been expanding faster than the economy. online. and even greater growth and investment is expected following the recent passage of telecom reform. Although in the different market segments the dominant operator has been losing ¶ its market share. which seeks to increase industry competition. To accelerate that the ¶ telecommunications arrive to every corner of the country at affordable prices. which ¶ will cause a negative impact on the adoption of new telecommunication services. especially ¶ among the low-income population who need affordable telecommunication services in ¶ order to become users. led by growth in services such as satellite television and mobile broadband. In places where there are no networks. and conflicts of interest prevailing between operators and authoritiies".html) MEXICO CITY--Mexico's telecommunications regulator said Monday that the industry continued to outgrow the overall economy in the first quarter. links. May 27 2013.pdf Also. ¶ The virtual existence of relevant contents applications and information is also important ¶ for telecommunication users and human resources with sufficient training on the use of ¶ equipment and contents. content) ¶ causes the rest of the operators to still depend to a high extent on the dominant operator.8% growth registered in gross domestic product. these actions will not be enough to achieve the desired levels of appropriation ¶ of telecommunications among the population and it will also be necessary to work on other ¶ 1. Telecom reforms fail Prieto 11 (Jana Palacios. "Mexico's Telecom Industry Outpaced Economy in First Quarter". . there will be no services.¶ 2. increased 12. or Cofetel. well above the 0.wsj. "Telecommunications Industry in Mexico: Performance and market structure analysis. and in those ¶ regions where the networks are only a few.Telecommunications strong now and don’t reflect overall economic trends— historically insulated from economic pressures Harrup 13 (Anthony.com/article/BT-CO-20130527703534.mx/wpcontent/uploads/2011/6/telecomm_mexico_may_2011_final_version1.¶ The Federal Telecommunications Commission. said its telecommunications index. transmission prices will be expensive. Investments in infrastructure take time to mature.¶ 3. imco. More networks do not automatically translate into more ¶ telecommunication users. there will be regions in ¶ the country where the market is simply not attractive for any of the telecommunication ¶ companies to invest in.5% from the first quarter of 2012. published in the Wall Street Journal. it will ¶ probably be necessary to regulate access of third parties to the networks in the short term. telecommunications expert at the Mexican Institute for Communications.

S. May 2 of 2013. On both sides of the border. It should open up opportunity and collaboration spaces in different arenas. on the first day of his trip to Mexico. they have a reasonable chance of allowing them to worsen.S. and border insecurity.¶ President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto issued a joint statement and President Nieto discussed some of that agreement (see below for the joint statement). http://www. law enforcement and intelligence agencies that was offered by the administration of Felipe Calderóno. Meetings don’t solve – no agreement on security issues Goldfarb et al 13 – staff writer covering the White House.com/article/president-obama-and-mexican-president-enrique-pe-anieto-at-news-conference) President Barack Obama had a busy day in Mexico yesterday.S.S. that our . President Obama had a bilateral meeting with the Mexican President. “Obama in Mexico: Change the Reality. But hard facts and real deeds shape the bedrock of reality. financial and fiscal policy (Zachary. Mexico. helped to set up. officials are excluded from intelligence fusion centers the U. and Mexico are far from resolving the insecurity-producing challenges posed by transnational crime. Previous meetings were successful – no reason more are key Presta 13 – author of an award-winning book Mr. drug consumption. Grassroots and book reviewer of political books (John. human trafficking.examiner. Not the Conversation”.org/2013/05/01/obama-in-mexico-change-the-reality-not-the-conversation/) Cooperation with Mexico may be scaled back or waning as U. In fact.com/world/obama-begins-bilateral-meeting-with-penanieto/2013/05/02/07475caa-b368-11e2-9a98-4be1688d7d84_story.heritage. who will likely attempt to move drugs across Mexico with less violence and greater efficiency as Mexican law enforcement focuses on the most violent criminal elements. http://blog. U. end result.¶ Changing a conversation is easy. officials are concerned that the new Mexican government seems less inclined to provide the same level of deep coordination with U. May 1 of 2013.Mexico Relations Security talks allow problems to continue – Mexico doesn’t allow US involvement in operations Walser 13 – senior policy analyst specializing in Latin America at the Heritage Foundation (Ray. “Obama begins bilateral meeting with Peña Nieto”. and the Caribbean for the Washington Post. reining in the wide-ranging and personal connections between U. They then held a press conference at the Palacio Nacional in Mexico City. and Mexican military and law enforcement officials. we have reached an agreement that the relation between Mexico and the United States should be broad in terms of the areas that it covers.S.S. "First of all. Nick Miroff overs Mexico. focusing on President Obama’s economic. May 3 of 2013. A new emphasis on citizen security may take the law enforcement heat of trafficking kingpins. After the official arrival ceremony which he was greeted by a delegation led by Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.¶ Peña Nieto has consolidated all law enforcement cooperation with the United States through Mexico’s Interior Ministry. with a very clear purpose in mind to make the North American region a more productive and competitive region that will. “President Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto at news conference”. With drug trafficking and the illegal transport of weapons over the border still major problems. the U.washingtonpost.html) But the security partnership between Mexico and the United States has been the biggest potential point of conflict between the two leaders ahead of the meeting. and Mrs. Politicians and diplomats do it all the time. trigger the enormous potential that our peoples have. Central America. http://www. Happy talk and wishful thinking will not make these problems go away .

and strengthening institutions and the rule of law . They also agreed to work together to try and ensure the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement by the end of the year.politico. support for Mexico’s efforts. the Netherlands all together. http://www. France. was to make the region as a whole more productive and competitive in the global economy. while enhancing opportunities within each country .¶ They agreed to establish a bilateral forum on higher education. Mexico and Canada. and research that will develop a shared vision on educational cooperation.S. "We have emphasized trade and commerce in this visit. "…Both in the United States and Mexico. May 2 of 2013. according to a translator.S. “President Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto at news conference”."¶ Both leaders said they had agreed to form a high-level economic working group that will seek to improve trade and foster economic growth on both sides of the border. enhanced counter-illicit finance and arms trafficking efforts.¶ "We are not going to target this relation in one specific area. effective..¶ Presidents Obama and Peña Nieto will remain in close consultation on these and other issues of mutual interest. President Peña Nieto discussed the importance of ensuring a peaceful Mexico. and in particular for the transition to an accusatory system of justice that is transparent." Peña Nieto said. Vice President Joe Biden will be involved in the effort. and efficient.S.¶ President Obama reiterated U. they said.. to its top trade partners. and of preventing crime by addressing the conditions that contribute to its occurrence. this represents one-third out of each three products that are exported from the U. has with European countries like the U. has with Mexico. Peña Nieto: Our relationship is about more than security”.S.com/politico44/2013/05/obama-pea-nieto-our-relationship-is-about-more-than163151.html) President Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto sought Thursday to broaden U. We have to make certain that our economies are competitive around the world.” Obama said during a joint press conference after their bilateral meeting. as one of the five main pillars of his government’s strategy. May 3 of 2013."¶ Nieto discussed "all the achievements made upon the free trade agreement and the benefits that our economies have received from it.¶ The overarching theme.examiner. The exports made from the U.¶ "We live in a world that is changing rapidly. . and Mrs. Grassroots and book reviewer of political books (John. innovation." Obama said. and only the relation with Mexico is higher than the one the U." Only cooperation on economics solves – it is the necessary starting point Slack 13 – USA Today/Gannett Washington Bureau Reporter (Donovan.S. and measures to reduce drug use and its consequences. http://www.nations have..¶ “Too often two issues get attention: security or immigration. The Presidents also emphasized the importance of continued actions against transnational organized crime.S.K. or the exports sent to China and Japan together doesn’t reach the level that the U.." Meetings inevitable Presta 13 – author of an award-winning book Mr.-Mexican relations and the focus on those ties beyond security as both touted newly inked cooperative agreements on improving trade and educational exchange. in order to further advance the partnership between their nations.com/article/president-obama-and-mexican-president-enrique-pe-anieto-at-news-conference) The Presidents reaffirmed their commitment to act as co-responsible partners through a renewed collaborative approach to citizen security. “Obama. we can't be caught flat-footed.

The policy. says Ms Reineke. Mexican authorities say that kidnappings of migrants have soared to around 20. Yet the growth in numbers from Central America shows how strong the “push” factors behind migration remain.economist. Raising the cost of crossing must keep out some economic migrants. "Predator Drones Stalk US Borders Without Budget or Strategy". with migrants clinging to the roof .with these Predators. jobs and security across the border will prove too powerful for many to resist.000 in 2012.like agents on the ground.north and south .000 a year. Drones tech is hyped—empirically fails at the border and doesn’t provide enough bang for its buck Barry 13 (Tom." DHS hurriedly launched the campaign to patrol the borders . In the rush to secure the homeland. But if Mexico’s economy stutters.org/news/item/14239-predator-drones-stalk-us-borders-without-budget-or-strategy) Flush with billions of dollars in post-9/11 funding for "border security. the magnets of high wages. A growing number of youths are fleeing crime and deprivation in countries such as Guatemala and.com/news/united-states/21579828-spending-billionsmore-fences-and-drones-will-do-more-harm-good-secure-enough) Fortifying the border has two immediate effects: it makes it easier to catch illegal migrants and it deters others from trying. The proportion of OTMs among the dead bodies identified by Ms Reineke’s project doubled between 2000-05 and 2006-12.000-mile southern border is tighter than it has ever been. or violent crime soars again. Greater use of surveillance technology may reduce crossings further. truthout.000 in 2010 to 95. But the record number of deportations under Mr Obama has created a giant class of expelled foreigners with deep roots in the United States. Apprehensions of what the Border Patrol calls OTMs (“other than Mexicans”) grew from 51. specializes in immigration policy. director of the TransBorder project. Jan 31 2013. reportedly for refusing to pay extortion money. which would determine how effective and cost-efficient drones are compared to other instruments of border control .Terrorism Can’t solve terror—external factors The Economist 13 ("Secure enough". light manned aircraft or less-expensive.¶ Most of America’s 2. One survey of recent deportees found that 22% had offspring who were American citizens. pilots and crews supplied by General Atomics. Organised criminals rob migrants on a terrifying cargo train known as La Bestia (The Beast). In May at least ten Hondurans were injured after criminals threw them off the train. senior policy analyst at the Center for International Policy. Honduras.¶ CBP started deploying drones along the Arizona border without a plan for how they would be deployed. DHS trampled over due-diligence standards to speed through orders for the drones. and the outsourcing of national security." Yet CBP offered no research indicating Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) would indeed increase the efficiency of Border Patrol agents or result in higher rates of drug seizures and apprehensions.¶ Even before they reach the border these migrants face dangerous conditions. border security. smaller drones. Parents separated from their children are unlikely to be put off by extra helicopters or double fencing.”¶ Mexico may no longer be a big net exporter of people. the numbers of immigrant . America’s politicians may or may not find a way to declare the border “secure”. but it is increasingly a transshipment point for migrants from Central America.¶ The border agency claimed that the Predator drones would function as a "force multiplier. without a strategy defining their role in border security and without any cost-benefit evaluations. particularly. homeland security.¶ Even accepting the notion that arrests of unauthorized immigrants and seizures of marijuana backpackers illegally crossing the border with their bundles of Mexican-grown weed contribute to homeland security. June 22 2013. often “forces people to choose between social death and the risk of physical death. www. which travels from southern Mexico to the north.

Drones aren’t successful as anti-terrorist technology Barry 13 (Tom. senior policy analyst at the Center for International Policy.org/news/item/14239-predator-drones-stalk-us-borders-without-budget-or-strategy) Then. strategy statements or descriptions of drone accomplishments has CBP ever supported its assertion that drones are effective counterterrorist instruments. releases. specializes in immigration policy. Jan 31 2013.apprehensions and drug seizures (almost exclusively marijuana) are low for these high-tech. focuses operations on the CBP priority mission of anti-terrorism by helping "to identify and intercept potential terrorists and illegal cross-border activity. . CBP makes the same claim about all its border security operations without ever attempting to detail how these operations are shaped or evaluated by its anti-terrorism mission.¶ The failure to link actual drone operations to the agency's "priority mission of antiterrorism" is not surprising or unexpected. track and apprehend terrorists and terrorist weapons of mass destruction. homeland security. truthout. there is the matter of drones as counterterrorism instruments: how these unmanned remotely piloted vehicles can be used to identify.¶ The drone program. director of the TransBorder project. neither as part of its decision to launch the drone program nor in any subsequent pronouncements." Yet. high-budget drone operations. border security. and the outsourcing of national security. according to CBP. "Predator Drones Stalk US Borders Without Budget or Strategy".

http://www.Venezuela Relations Links to politics – Obama pushed for her nomination – the CP means he would flip flop which upsets top republicans The Guardian 13 – (“Obama's UN nominee Samantha Power highlights Syria and Israel”. oil cooperation with Cuba. He criticized practically everything Chavez did: the purchase of Russian arms. July 21 of 2013. whether it be verbal. On Wednesday.uk/world/2013/jul/18/samantha-power-un-syria-israel-confirmation) Senator Bob Corker. or diplomatic. the top Republican on the committee. This is how one of Venezuelan analysts commented on Brownfield’s work: “Defeated. He paid several visits to Venezuela’s Zulia state. that the US army might be needed to police the Middle East conflict if it escalated.” Maduro Cuts Off Venezuela-U. Brownfield’s policy changed. the officials in Caracas paid absolutely no attention to the new US envoy . contribution to Latin American integration and the creation of the mechanism of regional security without the US membership. as well as by Obama's fellow Democrats. July 17 of 2013.com) – The conversations that were started a month and a half ago between Venezuela and the United States have definitively ended. openly demonstrating his solidarity with local pro-separatism politicians. in a 2002 interview with an academic. February 18 of 2012. He failed to implement Washington's plans of making the opposition stronger and Chavez weaker." he said. and he spent much time talking to opposition members and NGO activists.com/analysis/6816) Brownfield’s credentials were accepted by Chavez at Miraflores Palace on October 15 2004. They won’t accept a new ambassador – Maduro already cut off relations Bercovitch 13 – staff writer for the Green Left Weekly (Sascha. said he expected Power would be "a significant and positive force at the United Nations". Power had been criticised by some conservatives for seeming to suggest.¶ There was some pointed questioning about past statements – some made more than a decade ago – but Power was praised by many Republicans. Talks”. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced yesterday at an event of the Strategic Regions of Integral Defense (REDI) in Cojedes state. don't involve yourselves anymore in Venezuela . Stay over there with your empire. Brownfield’s mission ended in the middle of 2007. rambling and remarkably incoherent response to a hypothetical question that I should never have answered". Enough is enough.” he said. “With “Zero Tolerance to Gringo Aggression. while Brownfield stayed in Venezuela.¶ "All too often the UN acts as a place where bad actors deflect criticism.S. “US Ambassadors to Venezuela: A Chronology of Failure”. On the contrary. July 21st 2013 (Venezuelanalysis.¶ “My policy is zero tolerance to gringo aggression against Venezuela. http://venezuelanalysis. http://venezuelanalysis. I'm not going to accept any aggression. he is leaving. Chavez saw his . she called it part of "a long. expanded partnership with Iran.co.guardian. Very soon. Venezuela Analysis. Diplomatic missions fail – Brownfield proves Nikandrov 12 – Journalist and political analyst covering Latin America's politics (Nil.com/news/9872) Caracas. ¶ Power has disassociated herself many times from that comment. however. political. Several senators said they looked forward to her UN tenure. but was one of several senators who urged her to pursue reforms at the world body. First. the ambassador tried to leave a good impression of himself and emphasized the need to improve the USVenezuela relations at least on some levels and lay the basis for further cooperation. ¶ In response.

He was implementing the US plans to overthrow Evo Morales. Duddy *who’s term of service in Venezuelan ended July 2010] was not happy with the situation because the results were very poor despite huge spending .com/analysis/6816) Brownfield wished his successor Patrick Duddy all the best at his post. The US ambassador to La Paz in Bolivia Philip Goldberg was a key figure in organizing opposition rallies and instigating separatism. Chavez said that Duddy must leave Venezuela within 72 hours. though in a more careful way: his intelligence background helped him. Journalists addressed Duddy asking him for money allegedly to fight the Chavez regime.¶ Duddy returned to Caracas nine months later. Empirics go AFF – diplomatic missions are useless Nikandrov 12 – Journalist and political analyst covering Latin America's politics (Nil. Brownfield said: ''Probably. Brownfield simply turned into a vulgar immoral instigator. Venezuela Analysis. http://venezuelanalysis.approval rating going up to 73%... . except the WikiLeaks reports dealing with the embassy’s financial ties to proopposition mass media. In August of 2008. February 18 of 2012. he will manage to achieve the goals I’ve failed to approach. There was not a single reason to reproach him for anything.” Duddy continued his predecessor's course. “US Ambassadors to Venezuela: A Chronology of Failure”. intellectual man. His further stay in Venezuela was not in any way remarkable. who knows Latin America very well'. although the Venezuelan counterintelligence received reports that the US embassy was preparing a 'surprise' for the 2008 elections [in 2008 state governor elections were held in Venezuela]. His only success was giving dollars to opposition 'puppets'”. Describing Duddy as a ''very smart. in a gesture of solidarity with Bolivia.