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NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox

Sophs COPT Lab

***Mexico Economy

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox

Sophs COPT Lab

Mexico Economy Advantage Frontline
First, Mexico economy growing now - auto industry Klier, 6-13 (Thomas, senior economist in economic research department at Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, published scholarly journals including Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, MBA from Frierich-Alexander-Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Germany, PhD in economics from Michigan State University, ―Mexico’s Growing Role in the North American Auto Industry,‖ June 13, 2013, http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/archives/2013/06/klier_blog.html) Harbeck

Mexico’s auto industry has experienced tremendous growth since the mid-1980s. Last year, 19% of all light vehicles produced in North America originated in Mexico (see table 1). That is up sharply from 20 years ago and puts Mexico ahead of Canada in terms of the number of vehicles produced Table 1:
Distribution of light vehicle production in North AmericaOn May 30, a panel of distinguished experts gathered at an event hosted by the Detroit branch of the Chicago Fed to discuss factors be hind Mexico’s growth as a vehicle producer.Most of the presentations are available here. Also, see a recent Chicago Fed Letter on the same topic.Mexico has a long history of vehicle production; by the late-1930s Ford, GM, and Chrysler were producing vehicles in the country. Over the years,

the Mexican auto industry was shaped by economic development policies put in place by the Mexican government. Starting in the mid-1960s, a policy of import substitution favored production of vehicles and parts within Mexico. A number of years later, the policy focus changed to export promotion, which encouraged Mexican producers to seek international markets for their products. In 1995, Mexico, the U.S., and Canada signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). It established a framework and set out a timetable for boosting trade among the three countries . In the process, Mexico has become a very attractive export platform for North, Central, and South America (see table 2). In fact, the country has negotiated more than 40 free trade agreements, more than any other North American country. In
addition, Mexico has benefited from a general improvement in its manufacturing competitiveness during the past few years. Its productivity-adjusted wages are the lowest among major manufacturing co untries, it is an energy rich country, and it has a history of manufacturing (35% of the country’s GDP is represented by manufacturing).

And, Mexico's economy is resilient - ability to withstand growing drug violence proves Thomas White International 12 (January 27, 2012,―Mexico: The glow of economic
resilience lightens the shadows of violence‖, http://www.thomaswhite.com/worldmarkets/mexico-the-glow-of-economic-resilience-lightens-the-shadows-of-violence/ )Wave3seo But, surprisingly, the Mexican economy has so far remained somewhat impervious to all that violence. GDP growth last year was relatively healthy and the expected slowdown during the current year is likely to be a minor dip rather than a steep fall. Domestic consumer demand has held up, supported by nearly $23 billion in remittances during 2011 from Mexicans working abroad. Industrial investments are flowing in from abroad, and last year were estimated by the UN at close to $18 billion. Despite higher consumer prices in recent months, inflation remains under control and has allowed the central bank to maintain interest rates relatively low.¶ It is interesting that much of the economy’s resilience is rooted in the sustained buoyancy in export shipments, especially of manufactured goods, when consumer demand in the U.S., the destination for most of Mexico’s exports, has not been particularly robust. This suggests Mexico’s improved export competitiveness and, in fact, Mexico has been steadily increasing its share in the total import basket of its northern neighbor. The most significant driver of this trend are rising labor and other costs in China and in neighboring Asian countries that are the principal suppliers into the U.S. market. Even though the average wages in Mexico are still higher than most developing countries in Asia, the competitive edge in that Far East region has gradually declined when aggregate costs are considered. The close proximity to the U.S., which allows greater logistical flexibility in response to short-term demand fluctuations, adds to Mexico’s luster in the eyes of large manufacturers.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox

Sophs COPT Lab

Mexico Econ Adv - Exts #1 - High now
Mexico's economy will continue to grow - Pena Nieto reforms and trade
The Economist, 2012 (―Cheaper than China and with credit and oil about to start flowing, Mexico is becoming a Brazil-beater,‖ November 24, 2012, http://www.economist.com/news/specialreport/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexicobecoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engines) Harbeck
Once shuttered off by tariffs and trade controls, Mexico has opened up to become a place where the world does business. The North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which in 1994 eliminated most tariffs between Mexico, the United States and Canada, was only the beginning: Mexico now

boasts free-trade deals with 44 countries, more than any other nation.

In northern and central Mexico German companies turn out electrical components for Europe, Canadian firms assemble aircraft parts and factory after factory makes televisions, fridge-freezers and much else.

Each year Mexico exports manufactured goods to about the same value as the rest of Latin America put together. Trade makes up a bigger chunk of its GDP than of any other large country’s.¶
Normally that would be a good thing, but after the 2007-08 financial crisis it meant that Mexico got a terrible walloping. Thanks to its wide-open economy and high exposure to the United States it suffered the steepest recession on the American mainland: in 2009 its economy shrank by 6%. The country had already had a rocky decade. When China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, it started undercutting Mexico’s export industry. In the ten years to 2010 Mexico’s economy grew by an average of just 1.6% a year, less than half the rate of Brazil, which flourished in part by exporting commodities to China.¶ But

now changes are under way, in Mexico’s factories, its financial sector and even its oil and gas fields, that augur well for a very different decade. Latin America’s perennial underachiever grew faster than Brazil last year and will repeat the trick this year, with a rate of about 4% against less than 2% in Brazil. Mr Peña is aiming to get annual growth up to 6% before his six-year presidency is over. By the end of this decade Mexico will probably be among the world’s ten biggest economies; a few bullish forecasters think it might even become the largest in Latin America. How did Mexico achieve such a turnround?¶
China’s cut-price export machine sucked billions of dollars of business out of Mexico. But now Asian wages and transport costs are rising and companies are going west. “The China factor is changing big-time,” says Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who in 2001 coined the “BRICs” acronym—Brazil, Russia, India and China—much to Mexico’s irritation. China is no longer as cheap as it used to be. According to HSBC, a bank, in 2000 it cost just $0.32 an hour to employ a Chinese manufacturing worker, against $1.51 for a Mexican one. By last year Chinese wages had quintupled to $1.63, whereas Mexican ones had risen only to $2.10 (see chart 1). The minimum wage in Shanghai and Qingdao is now higher than in Mexico City and Monterrey, not least because of the rocketing renminbi.¶ Right next door¶ Hauling

goods from Asia to America is costlier too. The price of oil has trebled since the start of the century, making it more attractive to manufacture close to markets. A container can take three months to travel from China to the United States, whereas products trucked in from Mexico can take just a couple of days. Mexico the world’s cheapest place to manufacture goods destined for the United States, undercutting China as well as countries such as
AlixPartners, a consultancy, said last year that the joint effect of pay, logistics and currency fluctuations had made

India and Vietnam.¶ Companies have noticed. ―When you wipe away the PR and look at the real numbers, Mexico is startlingly
good,” says Louise Goeser, the regional head of Siemens, a German multinational. Siemens employs 6,000 people at 13 factories and three research centres around Mexico. From its recently enlarged facility in Querétaro, in central Mexico, surge-arrestors and transformers trundle up to warehouses in the central United States in two days. Ms Goeser says that Mexican workers are well qualified as well as cheap: more engineers graduate in Mexico each year than in Germany, she points out.¶ In Aguascalientes, not far away,

Banks spent the best part of a decade dealing with their dodgy legacy assets and were nervous about making new loans. provide about a third of the government’s income. Together with an existing facility it will turn out a car nearly every 30 seconds. a ratings agency. the company is ―armoured‖ against currency fluctuations. trade.com/issues/2013/jan/mexico.” as mentioned by Kenneth Rapoza in Forbes magazine. It seems that the land of the tequila is becoming one of the favorite sites for global companies looking to expand their business operations worldwide. 23 years of experience in international business with private and public sector. Now Canada.cfm) Harbeck Suddenly. now running at 4. If you depend on imports of components. CEO of Eurocopter de Mexico. the country is turning into the new “little darling of emerging markets. the state-run oil and gas monopoly. in effect since 1994.‖ January. Mr Sánchez seems to have enough business to open another branch. ―Why Made in Mexico Means Quality and Competitiveness. so could oil. has been well under control for ten years. says José Luis Valls.¶ On the opposite side of Cuernavaca from Nissan’s gigantic factory. 2013. The conservatively run Mexican subsidiaries of foreign banks such as BBVA. coupled with macroeconomic stability. Soon ―Hecho en México‖ will become more familiar to Americans than ―Made in China‖. The opening policy also included .¶ Reason number one is the opening of the market. Lending is equivalent to 26% of GDP. industrial sector Connelle. By using local suppliers. in six years’ time the United States will be more dependent on imports from Mexico than from any other country (see chart 2). Now they are starting to turn on the credit tap. Since striking black gold in the 1970s. Inflation. The drought started with the ―tequila crisis‖ of 1994.9 percent. with an investment value of a US$550 million.¶ There are several reasons and facts that explain why this nation reflects an important economic evolution. Five to six consecutive years of loan growth. when a currency devaluation triggered the collapse of the country’s loosely regulated banking system. the central bank estimates. compared with 61% in Brazil and 71% in Chile. many of these ―personal‖ loans probably go to businesses. Mexico has been one of the world’s ten biggest oil producers. on July 2012. when the country joined the GATT. ―It’s complicated. This gives Mexico an advantage over other Latin American countries that are deep in debt.¶ According to projections by HSBC. This year Mexico will turn out roughly 3m vehicles. Given that many enterprises are informal. you are very fragile. Antonio Sánchez plays a smaller role in Mexico’s motor business. according to David Olivares of Moody’s. including NAFTA. would increase Mexico’s annual growth rate by half a percentage point. thanks to a chronic credit drought. ―There are many financing opportunities in Mexico that are not tapped.energy. About 80% of the parts in each car are made in Mexico. but credit is scarce and expensive.” said Serge Durand. Mexico has 12 free trade agreements with 44 countries. He explains that banks tend to charge interest rates of 25% or more and demand collateral worth three times the value of the loan. making it the world’s fourth-biggest auto exporter. At his carwash customers queue to pay 46 pesos ($3.60) for their cars to gleam in the ever-present sun. ―If you are localised. the average trade tariff fell from 27 percent to 6. When the new factories are up and running. the eyes of investors turned toward Mexico. Since then.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Nissan is building a $2 billion factory. the governor of the central bank. and not because of the violence unleashed by the drug war.” says Agustín Carstens.6%. Audi is constructing a $1. expensive and the risk is too much.¶ Mexican businesses have been fighting with one hand tied behind their backs. later the World Trade Organization. 3 billion plant in Puebla. Citigroup and Santander are all rated higher than their American or European parent companies. achieved in only 25 years. capacity will be 4m.siteselection. http://www. Loans to companies are growing at 12% a year and to individuals at 23%. The revenues of Pemex.‖ he says. in October 2011. during the construction launch of a new manufacturing plant in the city of Querétaro.‖ In nearby Guanajuato Mazda and Honda are building factories. you can navigate through floods and storms.¶ Although Mexico still faces important challenges.¶ ―We have found in Mexico an attractive industrial environment and a ready supply of skilled labor. executive director of Mexican Association of Industrial Parks.¶ As credit starts flowing. Mexico's economy will continue to be competitive .¶ But things are looking up. head of Nissan Mexico. 2013 (Claudia. the North American Free Trade Agreement signed with the United States and started in 1986.

market.¶ Today. 2013. Guillermo Padres. economy. Rising fuel costs. If that company manufactures in Mexico." said Juan Carlo Briseño. It is also the major supplier of medical devices to the U.The overview was presented in anticipation of today's sessions. where 11 percent of all cars and light trucks are produced in Mexico." attendees at the Arizona-Mexico Commission's plenary session heard Thursday. when committees will meet to map out or approve joint plans and ventures in the areas of economic development.Just a little over a decade ago. said Christopher Wilson. making it a natural attraction.Sonora has five international airports. Mexico's economy is growing faster than the U.‖ Rupert Stadler. education reforms and a pact among the three main political parties could have a positive effect on Mexico's credit rating. ¶ Mexico was also able to make a strategic change in its exports’ structure.The two governors are expected to address the crowd today and will host a joint news conference.S.‖ June 14. writes for Arizona Daily Star. 81 percent of its exports are manufactured goods. energy. making it more attractive to foreign investors. Mexico growing – most recent evidence proves Rico." he said.He said monopoly breakups. behind Germany. weapons. 61 percent of Mexico’s export products were crude oil. this nation of 114 million people is the leading world exporter of flat screen TVs and the second leading exporter of refrigerators."How refreshing for you in the Sonora business world to hear us talking about how to do business with Mexico. the eighth producer and the fourth exporter of new vehicles. Briseño noted. the country is now one of the world’s most important export platforms and “an ideal base from which to supply international markets. Wilson said. Japan and South Korea."The hypothesis of saying 'We have to go to China' is fading. Mexico has emerged as a leader in the manufacturing of automobiles. Now China is casting a curious eye on the country to see what it's doing right. making Mexico the world’s fourth biggest exporter of automobiles.S. electronictelecommunications.S.html) Harbeck "Made in China" is giving way to "Hecho en Mexico.com/business/local/mexico-growing-onmanufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.In Sonora. http://azstarnet. told the Financial Times in September 2012. Jan Brewer and Sonora Gov.because the shorter supply chain means bigger profits. where the average age is 25. two with cargo capacity. he said. .¶ Global automakers have announced new direct investments in Mexico of about $15 billion. chemicals. medical devices. of which 24 percent are high-tech products.14 million vehicles by the end of 2012. electronics and aerospace components.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab the financial and foreign direct investment liberalization of sectors not considered as strategic for the nation. the earnings are 40 cents. aerospace manufacturing has taken off in the past couple of years with big companies readying to announce further expansion of existing operations. associate vice president for university research at the University of Arizona. 24 percent of automotive products." Wilson said. In the 1980s.That is a financial boon for the United States . earns 4 cents.Its proximity to Arizona as an export entryway is a selling point.and especially for states along the Mexican border . with exports expected to be around 2. chairman of the Board of Management of Audi AG. make North America more appealing to manufacturing companies. according to INEGI (Mexico’s National Statistics Institute). who is with the Mexican Ministry of Economy's Pro Mexico program. 23 percent of chemicals and 21 percent of electronics are coming from the other side of the country’s southern border. the focus on these commission meetings was to school Mexico on how to do business with the United States. as 60 percent of FDI inflows received by the country go to manufacturing. pharmaceuticals and scientific instruments. Mexico is now inserted vertically into the most important segments of global production chains. coupled with higher labor costs in China. real estate and infrastructure.S. said Bruce Wright. market. associate of the Mexico Institute for the Woodrow Wilson Center.For every dollar spent on manufacturing in China. "we have a chance to tap into that growing economy.¶ Thanks to all these changes. At present. 6-14 (Gabriela. he told the crowd of Arizona and Sonora business leaders and politicians meeting in Scottsdale. Moreover. and although ours is much larger. including aerospace.The Arizona-Mexico Commission meeting is being hosted by Arizona Gov. as well as the main supplier of auto parts to the U. the U. of total U. computers. non-electronic machinery. ―Mexico growing on manufacturers. imports.S. Briseño said.

‖ March. Jeep sales were also strong.511 Mustangs between those same years.¶ Mexicans Love Trucks: Mexican motorists enjoy and use light trucks. lead times.397 sold between 2005–2011.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Mexico’s economy is growing and strong Spencer. as quality. Chrysler. Volkswagen. which eliminated most tariffs between Mexico.C.‖ ―Euro.sema. Marcos Alvarez. Toyota. worldwide automotive company.‖ . PAACE Automechanika will feature a specialized vehicle area where the cars will be categorized as ―Import.¶ OEM Production: There are nine manufacturers producing vehicles in Mexico. and 25% of all buyers attending the tradeonly event come from outside the United States. Between 2005–2011. Alvarez notes. Credit is increasingly available. 2013 (Linda. according to a new study put out by the Wilson Center based in Washington. ―International eyes are on Mexico now under what has been called MEMO [Mexican Moment]. 2013.¶ Similar Vehicle Demographics: Many of the vehicles sold in Mexico are the same models that sell well in the United States. The Chevrolet Silverado was also a top model.¶ Sizable Passenger Vehicle Market and Healthy Annual Sales: Mexico has 20 million motor vehicles in circulation. which allows Mexico to export up to $600 million in Mexican vehicles to that country without tariffs. including Ford. Mexico also has a free-trade deal with Brazil. with 541 exhibiting companies from 20 countries and 19. 40% of all vehicles sold in Mexico were pickups and SUVs. Nissan and others.org/semaenews/2013/13/opportunities-in-mexico-potential-in-latin-americas-second-largest-economy) Harbeck i ts economy grew 4% last year—quicker than even Brazil’s . draws more than 130. and Ford also sold 13.¶ Another first-rate automotive event where companies should consider exhibiting is the annual PAACE Automechanika show. Both Brazil and Argentina are notorious for their high tariffs. with strong annual sales of about 1 million. you don’t even need to leave the United States. The 2012 event boasted 14% growth. with 232. These days.000 visitors.‖ ―Racing‖ and ―Classic. SEMA members can find an additional route to reach South and Central American markets.810 units sold. the best-selling pickups in Mexico were Ford’s F-150 and F250.763 visits by specialized buyers from more than 33 countries. business director of Big Country America.928 sold during that period. GM. trust and currency and political stability are bringing back manufacturing from Asia to Mexico .¶ There are two excellent upcoming opportunities to explore the Mexican market. ―Considering Mexico Strong Growth and Fatter Pocketbooks Warrant a Closer Look at the Potential in Latin America’s Second-Largest Economy. D. but their agreements with Mexico allow vehicles and parts—up to a certain limit—to be shipped to those countries tariff free. writes for SEMA.¶ The country is an increasingly important gateway to the rest of Latin America. is quite optimistic about sales opportunities in Mexico and indirectly to the rest of Latin America. which will be held July 10–12. ¶ No Argentinian or Brazilian Tariffs: Among the many trade deals negotiated by Mexico is its most recently modified pact with Argentina. 2013. For the first. at Centro Banamex in Mexico City. Between 2005–2011. Mexico has free-trade agreements with 44 countries—more than any other country in the world—including the 2004 North American Free Trade Agreement.‖ By selling to the vehicle manufacturers’ Mexican operations. with 145.¶ This year. including large numbers from Mexico and other Latin American countries. http://www.¶ The annual SEMA Show. held each year in early November. inflation is under control and more of the population is joining the middle class. with 164. Canada and the United States.

easily able to bounce back from global financial crisis Columbia Journal of national Affairs 13 (04/04/2013.5 and four percent. the new darling of foreign investors. Mexico has begun to catch up to Latin America’s most-touted state.com/1301/nb-mexeconomysurges-brazilfalters. ―Mexico Catching Up While 'Booming Brazil' Falters‖. 2013.banderasnews. Mexico’s GDP has increased by 4 percent in the last year. Mexico boasts a skilled workforce.sipa.¶ Mexico took a massive hit from the 2007-2008 financial crisis. according to official estimates. Brazil. thanks in large part to its proximity to the United States. exports.7 percent in 2011 and a sizzling 7. Investment has boomed despite the ongoing drug wars.) said the two countries have very different growth patterns.edu/great-debate-will-mexicoassume-clear-leadership-latin-america )Wave3seo Mexico’s recent economic performance and its swift recovery from the financial crisis are seen by many analysts as near-miraculous. Mexico. More evidence . but its economy contracted a whopping six percent in 2009¶ But a huge reduction in Mexico’s "country cost" — the cost of doing business there — sparked an impressive turnaround that attracted investment in its industrial sector. While the Brazilian economic growth has slowed. http://jia. the perennial underachiever in Latin America.¶ Brazil. down from 2.¶ The figures speak for themselves. created jobs.columbia.htm) Wave3seo to become the world’s sixth largest economy. for the last decade Latin America’s unchallenged behemoth. “The Great Debate: Will Mexico Assume Clear Leadership in Latin America?”.¶ By contrast. is expected to show growth of only one percent for 2012. head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor’s for Latin America (the stock market index tracking Latin American stocks. while rival Mexico. . is posting increasingly strong growth.Exts #2 .¶ Sebastian Briozzo.Resilient Mexico's economy resilient . corruption and a weak rule of law. is suddenly eying a position among the world’s 10 largest economies with projected growth of between 3.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Mexico Econ Adv .continued foreign direct investment in the status quo makes Mexico resilient to economic instability BanderasNews 13 (January 10. and added value to http://www.5 percent in 2010. After experiencing average growth of barely 2% per year from 2000-2010. low costs and proximity to the United States. which overtook Britain last year has been hit by weakening Chinese demand for commodities.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***US/Sino War .

Any new confrontation like the cold war would risk a huge backlash in China by greatly damaging the better-off Chinese people. Wang Lijun.No US-China war in SCS.S. Embassy is telling evidence. President Obama vowed that the U. However there is little worry that the two powers will collide into a “new cold war. East Asia Forum. http://www. relations will continue to be very complicated. But China will be more enthusiastic and straightfoward about addressing and safeguarding its legal interests. reminiscent of the American plan to create a missile interception network all over Europe — a plan that unnerved the world’s other great power. Despite quiet diplomacy so far. but that does not automatically mean that the relationship will be unmanageable. the cycle of action and reaction has mostly turned out to be fruitful for the U.S. 2 . if miscalc nuke war threat was real. both don’t want conflict and negotiation deters Zhu Feng 12is a professor in the School of International Studies and the deputy director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Beijing University.S.-China relationship is complex. Neither nation wants confrontation. Why China and the US won’t go to war over the South China Sea. No one wants a Clash. The New York Times. But it does not strictly adhere to traditional communism either. the power disparity between Washington and China hasn’t significantly narrowed. ushering in the Pentagon’s global security programs that very specifically target China. 22 March 2013.” First of all. Russia. Rather. The U.S. Carlyle A. but mutual interest — especially in trade. http://www. Against this tense backdrop. In the years to come. Australian Defence Force Academy. Now the Asian version of missile defense is under intense discussion.No US-China war. Embassy in Beijing. The U. China-U. human rights issues are now creating rifts between Washington and Beijing. May 13 2013. The dealings over many thorny issues have proved that each side wants to handle the conflict.S. Therefore China’s rulers might find it much harder to back down over human rights clashes. Canberra. but also very important. relations. China is in no position to challenge the U.S.S.S. Such a conflict could ultimately undermine the Communist Party’s ruling legitimacy. The glue to keep these two nations together is not pragmatism only. Beijing believes that the U. Chen Guangcheng’s departure from the U.S. and China. the blind human rights activist Chen Guangcheng sought shelter this week at the U. Hillary Rodham Clinton. This rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific region is not necessarily the new U.S. Further competition is promising.nytimes. 5-3-12.S. the huge disparity in power should keep China in place. Neither side wants diplomatic confrontation. Thayer 13. reportedly sneaked into the U. regardless of Chinese achievements in the past decades. while the secretary of state. Beijing has been pretty conservative and doesn’t welcome democratization. or force Beijing to stand up desperately. Consulate in Chengdu in early February. Last November. would remain a power in the Asia-Pacific region for the rest of this century.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/arewe-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-china Reyes A series of events in recent months seem quite ominous for China-U. Lastly.eastasiaforum. After a local police official. doesn’t want to put China in a corner. What follows is America’s new and firm military restructuring in the region: setting Darwin Port in Australia as the new submarine corps base. Competition between Washington and Beijing will intensify. The current standoff in the South China Sea adds to the foreboding. The ideas in this paper were first presented at the Annual Conference of the Association for Asian Studies held at San Diego. My view is that Beijing remains an adolescent power.S. declared that America was pivoting to Asia. their impacts from miscalc should’ve happened already Carlyle A. criticisms over human rights are deliberate and well plotted.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-southchina-sea/ Reyes . it seems that both sides are struggling to react constructively. there is little sign that the two nations could realistically reach an agreement about human rights questions. not escalate it. aimed at abolishing the Communist Party’s ruling legitimacy and detracting from China’s re-emergence. China’s authoritarian system has been tremendously mobilized for international integration. any tensions from miscalc are mended through negotiations.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab US-Sino War Frontline 1 . Thayer is Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales. strategy after the military pullout from Iraq and Afghanistan. but lucrative for both sides. rotating military presence to the Philippines. Though some Chinese want the nation to assert itself more forcefully. Second. and should learn how to be a great power rather than unwisely rushing to any confrontation. as there is slight room to maneuver. but it does unequivocally signal the shift of America’s attention from Europe and the Middle East to Asia.

an archipelago disputed between China and other countries including Vietnam and the Philippines (Photo: AAP)¶ Even before Washington announced its official policy of rebalancing its force posture to the Asia Pacific. a review of past US–China military-to-military interaction indicates that an agreement to jointly manage security in the South China Sea is unlikely because of continuing strategic mistrust between the two countries. armed conflict.¶ But these developments do not presage armed conflict between China and the United States. and the United States has been careful to avoid being entrapped by regional allies in their territorial disputes with China. Top Australian Diplomat: U. This is also because the currents of regionalism are growing stronger. more probable. News & World Report ¶ Senior Defense Reporter at The Hill ¶ Senior Reporter . Commander of the US Pacific Command.¶ On the other hand.Since then. a worst-case scenario.S. Armed conflict between China and the United States in the South China Sea appears unlikely. the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA). Both sides understand that military-to-military contacts are a critical component of bilateral engagement. 2012. and some Asian leaders worry Beijing could clash with the world's sitting lone superpower: the United States. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the absence of greater transparency in military-to-military relations. and the entire globe. Australian minister for foreign affairs. and agreement on a new working group to draft principles to establish a framework for military-to-military cooperation. the Asia-Pacific region. the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus and the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. lawmakers.S.¶ Chinese sailors stand on a fishing vessel setting sail for the Spratly Islands. US News. the initiation of a Strategic Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic & Economic Dialogue process.¶ So the bottom line is that. http://www. told a forum Wednesday in Washington. For example. these multilateral mechanisms reveal very little about US–China military relations. But they also continue to engage each other on points of mutual interest.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/04/25/top-australiandiplomat-us-china-war-would-be-disastrous Reyes War between China and the United States would be "disastrous" for the entire world.¶ Expert forecasts that China could challenge America's perch atop the global totem pole are based on even more economic growth in China and across the Asia-Pacific region. ‘there has also been criticism that the Rebalance is a strategy of containment. April 25. both countries work separately to secure their interests through multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit. the United States and China will continue engaging with each other. In this scenario. who also suggests that a conflict between the global giants is unlikely. the channels have accomplished the following: continuing exchange visits by high-level defence officials.usnews. Sino- American relations in the South China Sea are more likely to be characterised by cooperation and friction than a modus vivendi of collaboration or.¶ A war between the eagle and the dragon would be "disastrous" for both nations. In sum.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea is challenging US primacy in the Asia Pacific. recently stated.¶ ¶ As Chinese economic and military power--and its global influence--grows. regular Defense Consultation Talks. despite ongoing frictions in their relationship. Bennett 12. Military-to-military contacts between the two countries have gone through repeated cycles of cooperation and suspension. agreement on the ‘7-point consensus’.¶ On the one hand. meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-tomilitary contacts from their political and strategic settings. foreign and national security policies from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific is based on a belief that . This is not the case … it is a strategy of collaboration and cooperation’. and no serious naval incidents since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. Senior Congressional Reporter at Defense News ¶ Past DEFENSE & NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT at U. says Australia's top diplomat.¶ Another. The Obama administration has repeatedly emphasised that its policy of rebalancing to Asia is not directed at containing China. The Obama administration's ongoing shift of U.-China War Would Be 'Disastrous' RSS Feed Print. scenario is that both countries will find a modus vivendi enabling them to collaborate to maintain security in the South China Sea. Locklear III.Pentagon & National Security Beat at Defense News ¶ Education The Johns Hopkins University ¶ Appalachian State University. U. agreement to hold meetings between coast guards.¶ However.¶ As such. the United States has deployed Combat Littoral Ships to Singapore and is negotiating new arrangements for greater military access to the Philippines.S.¶ 3 . Without such interaction there is a risk that mistrust between the two militaries could spill over and have a major negative impact on bilateral relations in general.Multilateral power balances in Asia prove coexistence of China and US influence possible John T.No risk of Sino backlash . the United States had undertaken steps to strengthen its military posture by deploying more nuclear attack submarines to the region and negotiating arrangements with Australia to rotate Marines through Darwin. Bob Carr. a third scenario is more likely than the previous two: that China and the United States will maintain a relationship of cooperation and friction.S. Admiral Samuel J. continuing working-level discussions under the MMCA. They have also helped to ensure continuing exchange visits by senior military officers. and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three established bilateral mechanisms: Defense Consultative Talks. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has been circumspect in its involvement in South China Sea territorial disputes. analysts.

[5] In an effort to build strategic trust. sounding a much different tone than did Singapore defense chief Ng Eng Hen during an April visit to Washington.-China tensions.irchina.-China war.asp?id=403] In my view.S. Carr says. 6/11 [Sheena Chestnut. calls a rising China a good thing for his nation. http://www. and China. National Defence University of the People’s Liberation Army of China . Underlying Principles .S. says Carr. Brookings.org/en/news/view. who spends ample United States dominated much of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st. http://www. No-First Use (NFU) has been a theoretical pillar of China’s nuclear policy.¶ But such time jetting around the vast region. It also contributes to the maintenance of world strategic stability." Carr said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.¶ Carr showed few signs of worry about what likely would be a bloody and costly U. the goes.[3] In his February 2012 address in Washington.edu. "might not belong to anyone. must be acutely aware of the dilemma they face if they are to avoid it.[1] Leaders on both sides.¶ During an April 4 speech in Washington. and will continue to do so in the future.US-China Relations increasing. But he also made clear Singaporean and other regional leaders feel the U. But the next 88 years. differences in political traditions and values. Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. and to offer advice on how one can best manage the geopolitical tensions that have historically attended the rise of a new great power.[2] Many of the prescriptions for avoiding conflict call for the two leaders to spend time. who spent the opening part of his prepared remarks underscoring the U.[4] In a 2012 Brookings Institution report. Academy Scholar. warning that anything else could spawn deadly U. “China Insistence on No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons”. Reflecting this discourse.¶ Ng urged increased American engagement in Asia. and insufficient understanding of each other’s policymaking structures and processes. China Security (World Security Institute China Program. This rationale of NFU of nuclear weapons serves Beijing’s foremost security interests. it won't go nuclear .¶ It was clear from several of Ng's comments in April that Singaporean and other regional leaders are increasingly concerned about a U.¶ The Sophs COPT Lab predictions might be off the mark. and China will be able to coexist. Just how China's continued rise 4 . and China must enhance military-to-military contacts. There are at least five reasons to explain why China has consistently stuck to that principle." suggesting the U.¶ Asia-Pacific realm. energy. over sixty formal dialogues between the United States and the People’s Republic of China now occur each year. Harvard University.S.S.-Australian partnership. which they believe will help prevent a war. will depend largely on Beijing's own actions.brookings. retired Major General of the People’s Liberation Army. And.S. Ng called the United States a "resident power" in Asia.China's No-First-Use policy Zhenqiang 05 (Pan. Chinese scholars and officials have consistently called for a “New Type of Great Power Relationship” (新型大国关系.S. and discussion focused on creating “strategic trust” (战略信任.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relations-asia-alliances-greitens] He In discussing this relationship. and the world. zhanlue xinren) in the bilateral relationship.-China war. Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi argue that “strategic distrust” is rooted in the narrowing gap in power between the U. forums for discussion and the enhancement of mutual understanding have multiplied. as well as their own research into the rise of previous great powers. Greitens. the argument goes. 6/11/13. Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies. he says.¶ But Carr.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox much of the history of this century will be written there. xinxing daguo guanxi) between Washington and Beijing that avoids the tensions that surrounded past rising powers. American public intellectuals have become fond of referencing Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta to issue warnings about the risk of conflict.¶ The levers of global and economic power are trending toward being more widely dispersed than some experts predict. President Xi Jinping called for the enhancement of mutual trust as the first of four major principles upon which American and Chinese leaders should base their relationship.S.¶ He also noted Chinese officials collective response to the administration shift toward their backyard has been "muted.

which have been highly visible and have stood the test of time. NFU Sophs COPT Lab highlights China’s philosophical belief that nuclear weapons can only be used to serv e one purpose. Indeed. China’s nuclear rationale has determined the defensive nature of its nuclear force. it also pledged unconditionally not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapon states. It is in this sense that China is NOT a nuclear weapon state in the Western sense. pending complete nuclear disarmament. Beijing announced that it would never be the first to use nuclear weapons under any conditions. as some Western pundits accused. their extremely large destructive capabilities render nuclear weapons the only truly inhumane weapon of mass destruction and are of little other use to China. size and operational doctrine. And thanks to the insistence of this policy based on NFU. Beijing vowed that having a nuclear capability would only serve this single purpose. China succeeds in reducing the nuclear element to the minimum in its relations with other nuclear nations. its posture. why should Beijing change it? . avoiding a possible nuclear arms race.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox First. nuclear blackmail in the 1950s. Faced with U. China has never intended to use its nuclear capability to make up for the in efficiency of conventional capabilities vis-à-vis other world powers nor has China an interest in joining a nuclear arms race with other nuclear states. and contributing to the global strategic stability at large. On the contrary.S. But even so. This claim is not merely rhetoric that cannot be verified. that of retaliation against a nuclear attack. From the very beginning of acquiring a nuclear capability. Unlike all the other nuclear weapon states. If this policy serves well its core security interests. China had no alternative to developing its own nuclear capability so as to address the real danger of being a target of a nuclear strike. for example.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***US/Russian Relations .

or fund some people that might be able to replace him. fundamentally. But even during the Cold War. depending on how you measure. and which was critical at a time when relations with Pakistan were not good – to Iran to counter-terrorism. The United States thinks that if they just wait out Putin. Russia and America are not out to get one another. which. anti-trafficking. from television shows to computer software. American heavy equipment.relations are resilient CIC 7-30-13 ("US-Russia Relations: It Could Be Worse. for perspective. there was the new nuclear treaty. is around the tenth largest economy in the world. Canadian International Council. we bro ught Russia into the WTO. no risk of bad relations escalating to conflict CIC 7-30-13 ("US-Russia Relations: It Could Be Worse. far worse world.-Russia relationship is caught in a trap of mutual distrust. On the other side. and it would be a very different and far. Only a few years ago. So the trade relationship is not a major factor in either country’s economic success. Ford automobiles. Canadian International Council. alternate causality to US-Russian Relations . the U. you have Putin thinking. we still managed to work together in several areas. ‘I’m tougher than these guys. at the time of the 2009 “re-set” there were opportunities for cooperation on everything from security – something which we actually started to see with Russian logistical support for NATO forces in Afghanistan. and anti-piracy. It has an increasingly wealthy middle class that’s interested in consuming more American goods. US-Russian Relations are stable now . And. anti-narcotics. trade. It’s less than two percent of Russia’s total trade. American consumer products generally… they certainly like American intellectual property.S.html] . It’s important to remember that Russia is not our enemy. Russia. another huge step forward. is less than half of one percent of total U. And.brecorder. But at t he same time. You could imagine a world in which they were. http://www. On the economic side. then maybe in a couple of years there will be a much better Russian government with which they can negotiate. As difficult as things can sometimes be with Moscow – and they have been very difficult lately – and as diametrically opposed President Putin and President Obama and their teams seem to be. there’s a lot of potential – these are two very big economies.org/features/the-thinktank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/) The relationship today isn’t good.S. http://opencanada. U. Both sides are relatively convinced that they’re talking to the wrong person. February 04. I’m just going to embarrass them on one issue after another and then soon enough I won’t have to deal with them’.com/topnews/1-front-top-news/44716-missile-defence-poisoned-us-russia-relations-report. "Missile defence poisoned US-Russia relations: report". and we have many more bilateral ties now. http://opencanada. when we had two political systems that unequivocally defined the other as a failure.S. but it’s nowhere near as bad as it could be.cites a US-Russia working group that studied how missile defense relates to US-Russia cooperation.missile defense Business Recorder 2012 [Pakistani business agency . The strength of the relationship today is still nowhere near where it could or should be.org/features/the-thinktank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/) Right now. And of course. That’s a huge amount of progress on the security side. I’ve been around longer than these guys. trade with Russia is about forty billion dollars a year.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab US-Russian Relations Frontline First.

The planned US shield. an issue that has poisoned US-Russia relations. Moscow says this could undermine its security if it becomes capable of neutralizing Russia's nuclear deterrent. Now an international commission has been working on the matter for two years that has designed a basic concept for cooperation with the help of military professionals from both sides. endorsed by NATO. come what may. could be a "game-changer" that transforms ties if the two sides cooperate on a shared system.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox WASHINGTON: Missile Sophs COPT Lab defence. and the Americans responding that they will build the system. says a report by former top officials from both sides of the Atlantic. . with the Russians threatening to deploy missiles aimed at countering a proposed US missile shield. would deploy US interceptor missiles in and around Europe in what Washington says is a layered protection against missiles that could be fired by countries like Iran. Recent headlines in both countries have been reminiscent of the Cold War.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Democracy .

entitlements and benefits any government offers.naturalnews.stier. This creates a downward spiral of entitlements leading to inescapable debt.. be unable either to protect themselves or serve the common good.htm] STRYKER Contemporary doubts about democracy follow the long tradition of pre-modern political thought. Once opposition to the regime arises. Not surprisingly. Now. is likely to be dissatisfaction. conflict in or paralysis of democratic regimes may not be too serious. again. the people are likely to be resistant to the demands of government. a government might adopt a series of radical changes in direction. 97 *Robert. If. is a contest based on short-term rewards rather than long-term vision. governments always run out of other people's money. especially if it means more money in their pockets. And it has often been held that. For one thing. But. in a number of ways. http://www. they tend to elect the person who promises them the most right now. most voters will choose the fantasy candidate. under unfavorable conditions. dissent and. is to the good. The result. a democracy is. then. Because sooner or later. regardless of the long-term consequences to the nation. in other words. But that doesn't stop the voting action which still boils down to a popularity contest to decide the leader who tells the best lies. the result is likely to be stalemate. 11 *Mike. it will be difficult for democratic regimes to adopt consistent and effective public policies. And.html] STRYKER Why democracy isn't working for America At its core. this makes government difficult. who have greater experience with and training for political matters will. a tradition that pointed both to the disadvantages of democratic regimes and the advantages of non-democratic regimes. the democratic process of electing representatives is a popularity contest. be better able to grasp and deal with these necessities of politics . Democratic regimes are often reluctant to use force against their own population. Critics of democracy suppose that monarchs and aristocrats.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Democracy Advantage Frontline First. author on history studies. The voters inevitably end up supporting whichever lawmakers offer the best handouts right now. If political circumstances allow one group and then another to triumph over another. For another thing. on the other hand. But in our preference for benign government. political circumstances make it difficult for one group to gain power. “Is Democray Stable? Compared to What?” 1997. to taxes and military service. when the voters go to the polls. we all think.net/writing/demstab/stability. Promoting democracy fails and backfires---resistance leads to conflicts Hobsbawm. and especially. This leads to two possible problems. likely to find it difficult to respond in ways that preserves itself. editor for Natural News.. these regimes will. 05 .com/032346_democracy_America. And. the people are likely to be divided about the proper direction of government. eventually instability. Democracies are unstable---free expression leads to collapse Mundt. But effective government requires that governments pay their bills and mobilize armies. it's crucial to recognize this simple economic fact: No government can offer something to one person without first taking it from another. So the more handouts. “Why democracy is failing America. Democratic regimes allow for the expression of the range of views held by the members of a political community. Voting. they are not as likely to be as brutally decisive and potent as a dictator who is not constrained by the rule of law or popular opinion. That. we should not assume that a good government is always the most stable government. even when they do so. http://www. Either way.” 5/10/11. Under favorable conditions. When given a choice between a realistic candidate who says America is deep in debt (Ron Paul) and a fantasy-land candidate who says there's nothing to worry about (almost everybody else). it is held. the more it must confiscate from others in order to meet its "obligations" to the voters. Democracy is unsustainable---inescapable debt leads to economic collapse Adams.

and computer geeks are the same worldwide. liberal freedoms. And electoral democracy cannot function effectively outside political units such as nationstates. and elections cannot even ensure their own perpetuation . It cannot. http://www.com/world/2005/jan/22/usa. rather than sow disorder. Democracy is rightly popular. The relapse into bloodshed and anarchy that has occurred so visibly in much of the world has also made the idea of spreading a new order more attractive. Other factors besides democracy's popularity explain the dangerous belief that its propagation by armies might actually be feasible. and there can be no legitimacy for its parliament.that its material power has limits. Other than creating complex problems of deceit and concealment. democracy has been suspended (as is the case in Northern Ireland). A body such as the European Union could develop into a powerful and effective structure precisely because it has no electorate other than a small number of member governments. convinced of the superiority of its social system. iPods. Of course.” 1/22/05. and that it can bring peace.it is dangerous. The Balkans seemed to show that areas of turmoil required the intervention. Without such consensus. consent and the ability to mediate conflicts between domestic groups. But these uncertainties do not diminish its justified appeal. contested elections with universal suffrage. it would not have happened). Electoral democracy is also unlikely to produce outcomes convenient to hegemonic or imperial powers. In the absence of effective international governance. no longer reminded . (If the Iraq war had depended on the freely expressed consent of "the world community". that it can remedy today's transnational dilemmas. They meant votes for all. "Spreading democracy" aggravated ethnic conflict and produced the disintegration of states in multinational and multicommunal regions after both 1918 and 1989. The 20th century demonstrated that states could not simply remake the world or abbreviate historical transformations. since 1989. Nor can they easily effect social change by transferring institutions across borders.comment] STRYKER Although President Bush's uncompromising second inaugural address does not so much as mention the words Iraq. If gas stations. “The dangers of exporting democracy. The effort to spread democracy is also dangerous in a more indirect way: it conveys to those who do not enjoy this form of government the illusion that it actually governs those who do. This idea is not merely quixotic . the campaign to spread democracy will not succeed . Today's US is unchallengeable in its techno-military supremacy. .theguardian. today's ideologues see a model society already at work in the US: a combination of law.particularly when they think God is on their side. or society has descended into permanent civil war (as in Sri Lanka). Globalisation suggests that human affairs are evolving toward a universal pattern. In 1647. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are but one part of a supposedly universal effort to create world order by "spreading democracy". states justify the means of achieving it . If they have the power. he and his supporters continue to engage in a planned reordering of the world. to which the "war against terror" has now contributed. derived from its revolutionary origins. Although great power action may have morally or politically desirable consequences. that it can succeed everywhere. for there is no "European people". there is no single sovereign people and therefore no legitimacy for arithmetical majorities. While threatening the integrity of universal values.witness the Weimar Republic. But one should always be suspicious when military powers claim to be doing weaker states favours by occupying them. All established states put their own interests first. electoral democracy and representative assemblies had little to do with that process. Europe proves the point. The rhetoric implies that democracy is applicable in a standardised (western) form. Another factor may be the most important: the US has been ready with the necessary combination of megalomania and messianism. some humanitarians are still ready to support a world order imposed by US power. When this consensus is absent. the state has split (as in Czechoslovakia). The powerful states are therefore trying to spread a system that even they find inadequate to meet today's challenges. and. Decisions were taken among small groups of people in private. not very different from the way they would have been taken in non-democratic countries. This idea is dangerous whistling in the dark. All that remains is to remake the world in the image of this "free society". and the end is considered sufficiently vital. universal suffrage does not guarantee any particular political result. Afghanistan and the war on terror. of strong and stable states. Both good and evil empires have produced the barbarisation of our era. identifying with it is perilous because the logic and methods of state action are not those of universal rights. Unsurprisingly.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab [Eric is professor emeritus of economic and social history of the University of London at Birkbeck. The conditions for effective democratic government are rare: an existing state enjoying legitimacy. military if need be. why not political institutions? This view underrates the world's complexity. But does it? We now know something about how the actual decisions to go to war in Iraq were taken in at least two states of unquestionable democratic bona fides: the US and the UK. Like President Wilson. the English Levellers broadcast the powerful idea that "all government is in the free consent of the people".in transnational public and private entities that have no electorates. The EU would be nowhere without its "democratic deficit". A growing part of human life now occurs beyond the influence of voters . competitive private enterprise and regular.as even the greatest conquering empires always had been . The effort to spread standardised western democracy also suffers a fundamental paradox. problems arose as soon as the EU moved beyond negotiations between governments and became the subject of democratic campaigning in the member states.

Among the fallen were 15 dictatorships. Gero Erdmann is head of Research Program 1 “Legitimacy and Efficiency of Political Systems” and lead research fellow at the GIGA Institute of African Studies. awareness is growing about the increasing international influence of authoritarian regimes.¶ Based on our study of 93 episodes of economic crisis in 22 countries in Latin America and Asia after World War II. Thailand and the Philippines. guerrilla insurgencies and an anti-Communist military. the Argentine democracy has weathered hyperinflation and deep recession — in sharp contrast to the repeated collapse of democracy when Argentina experienced less devastating crises during the Cold War. which brought down the Suharto regime that had ruled Indonesia for more than 30 years. Bert Hoffmann is acting director of the GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies. This new interest drew authors from two strands. mostly through a gradual process. Adesnik is a junior fellow there.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmannrichter. no-confidence votes or resignations. They fear that the economic crisis in some countries is undermining democratic regimes. the crisis produced neither a change of government nor a change of a regime (system of government). "Democracies Grow More Resilient to Economic Crisis. such as ideological polarization.¶ Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be wrong. via elections or confidence votes. The primary focus of attention has been the neighbor ‐ hood policies of Russia’s post ‐ Soviet regime as well as China’s international political and economic activities. 10 had no serious political effects while only 12 led to constitutional changes of government.¶ And.html) Han Recent trends suggesting the erosion of democracy in Latin America have led some observers to warn of a possible authoritarian resurgence in the region. labor radicalism. contributed to the breakdown. Thomas Richter is a senior research fellow at the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies.¶ Economic crisis caused regime collapses in 30. In economic terms. and Mr. New York Times. such fears are unnecessary. however. of the cases. the severity of economic crisis (measured in terms of inflation and negative growth) bore no relationship to the collapse. In 17 cases. In 46.” 7/2013. Of the 23 economic crises that struck democracies in Latin America and Asia after 1980. André Bank is a research fellow at the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies. rather than purely economic ones. Such changes do not destabilize the political system and seldom lead to an outbreak of violence. A case in point is the Asian financial crash of 1997. 2009) reflects these trends. scholars formerly interested in processes of . 10 democracies and five semidemocracies — regimes that rely on coercion to maintain power despite having formal democratic institutions. or half. http://www. No democratic backslide---democracies grow more resilient in economic crises Pei and Adesnik 2000 (Minxin and Ariel. Puddington 2008.gigahamburg.pdf] STRYKER In politics and political science alike. Immediate collapse is rare — only six regime collapses (three of which took place in Ecuador) were observed within nine months of the outbreak of the crisis. of the cases we studied.com/2000/03/04/opinion/04ihtedpei. Democracies are far more resilient than authoritarian regimes in the face of economic adversity. but democracy survives as a system of government. only one democracy — Peru — has fallen in the midst of crises. or about one-third. however. scholarly attention has turned away from the international dimension of democratization to address the international dimension of authoritarian regimes. The controversy about a “reverse wave” of democratization. Since its transition in 1983. It is not the democrats but the dictators who should fear for their survival when an economic crisis hits. Political variables.¶ The source of democracies' resilience is their institutional capacity to enforce political accountability.¶ The most striking and heartening finding is that democracies may have grown more resilient over time. Dr. http://www. With one exception. the expan ‐ sion of nondemocratic rule (Merkel 2010. First.de/dl/download.nytimes.2. played a more direct role in the demise of democracy in developing countries. 2009) and the earlier “backlash against democracy promotion” (Carothers 2006. Governments fall. senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Since 1980. 3/4/2000. “International Cooperation of Authoritarian Regimes: Toward a Conceptual Framework. 13 *Dr.¶ The 10 cases of collapsed democracies suggest that political factors. In South Korea. democracies survived the crisis intact. all of these changes took place in democratic states as a result of elections. many of these crises were more severe than those that claimed democratic regimes in the same countries in the 1960s and 1970s. More recently.¶ Argentina is a case in point. Democracy collapse doesn’t lead to extinction---authoritarian regimes cooperate to solve the same problems Erdmann et al. it led to a change of government but not of regime.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab And. In fact. Dr.t.

through vetoes in the UN Security Council. Conspicuously. Sometimes it’s a funny thing to know that in this type of political system there are no marketing strategies being used.com/2012/10/normative-theory-authoritarian-theory. Weyland 2010). the existing literature pays scant attention to these phenomena. — They learn from each other in how to deal with opposition and how to build a solid polit ‐ ical party.blogspot. the strand of research that does not approach the issue from the angle of democratization still needs to develop a comprehensive conceptual approach. when the printing press was realized. Some of the literature main ‐ tains a democratizing perspective insofar as it asks how and why some nondemocratic re ‐ gimes were able to fend off international diffusion of or even pressure for democracy (Levitsky and Way 2010. And. — well beyond the particular antidemocratic “leverage” of authoritarian powers. Authoritarianism isn’t bad---limitations are good Rahib Raza 12. While it is obvious that authoritarian regimes use multiple forms of international coopera ‐ tion to reinforce their rule. Second. — They help each other in military ‐ and security ‐ related issues. Burnell 2011).12 Shah Since the earliest times. such as Russia’s counterinfluence on the color revolutions in its neighborhood. Actually. Sophs COPT Lab rollback that reversed many efforts of de ‐ mocracy promotion scholars previ ‐ ously interested in the stability and durability of authoritarian regimes became increasingly aware of the importance of international factors (Art 2012: 201). only but just threat morose threat.html. Au They exchange ideas on the design of development strategies. The issue goes ‐ thoritarian regimes collaborate in various ways: — They provide each other with ideational and material support. even up to now. the control of leaders which led to the oppression of the people has been demonstrated. columnist at The Express Tribune http://rahibraza. However. . taxation. The concept of authoritarianism developed throughout history wherein people in various societies lived under the authority of scrupulous people. Even English monarchs in the 15th and 16th century.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox democratization took notice of the authoritarian (Burnell and Schlumberger 2010. these forms of limitations are not bad at all because these serve as gatekeepers for some irresponsible printed materials. — They protect each other on the international level – for example. compelled restrictive censorship on publishers through a series of limitations such as licensing. 10-29. lots of people are still living under the authoritative form of government system wherein the government has the absolute control over the media and that they use media for propaganda purposes. and seditious libel. — And they provide each other with direct personal advice on how to cope with insurgent forces and how to control Internet usage.

10 *Reed.” it’s hard to argue that We the People are best equipped to make the important decisions of state. As Winston Churchill once said.stier. “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Democracy is fundamentally flawed---the average voter doesn’t know what’s best Tucker. The frightening experience of the descent of European democracies into fascism and communism is perhaps the most important.Exts #1 . You get the feeling that more substantial work gets accomplished at a high school’s model UN.” 2/14/10. But we can also find support for this presupposition in the evident fragility of democratic regimes in the less developed world. author on history studies. is the long standing tradition in political philosophy—and especially. The supposition that democracies are fragile probably has a number of sources.nypost. And. let’s look at some times we’ve been given a chance to be heard: . http://www.net/writing/demstab/stability.[1] Various hypotheses have been put forward and tested about the social and political conditions under which democratic regimes come to be or to endure.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/when_democracy_fails_LHBo3rZ6u43hQfgpU LEZ7L] STRYKER You don’t have to be a C-SPAN junkie to see that our government is just plain broken. in pre-modern political thought—of disparaging democracy and warning that it is likely to lead to tyranny.” Maybe the problem with government these days is simply that we Americans (and that includes many of those in power) don’t know enough to make the best choice. standing behind these events. A presupposition of most of this research is that democratic regimes are particularly fragile . an episode of “Jersey Shore. “When Democracy fails.htm] STRYKER The empirical study of democratic regimes in the last fifty years has focused on the question of what makes for stable democracies. 97 *Robert. http://www. But what if it’s not just government that’s broken? What if democracy itself doesn’t work ? After watching “Jaywalking. “Is Democray Stable? Compared to What?” 1997.” or. To see just how sensible we as a people are. God help us all.Unsustainable Democracy will inevitably collapse---it is inherently unstable Mundt. contributor to NYPost.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Democracy Adv .

cgdev. Though parliamentary forms of government are often said to help prevent power grabs by the executive branch. Such societies are often characterized by “insider”“outsider” tensions that are not easily resolved. If democracies are unable or unwilling to meet these demands. Finally. the democracies that are overthrown have. They do not generally fail. and not just to an elite. young democracies that are unable to constrain the executive branch of power—whether presidential or parliamentary—will find it difficult to sustain participatory forms of government. are potent reminders that democracy is a fragile institution. Egypt and Libya following the Arab Spring. do democracies fail? Our study identified several common factors. In crucial respects. Second. Nathan Converse and I found that democracies do not fail for the reasons commonly supposed. In our book.Exts #2 . visiting fellow at the Center for Global Development with expertise in airer trade. and the continuing political struggles in Tunisia. The Fate of Young Democracies. In fact. on average. the “outsiders” may find they have no alternative but to try and overthrow the regime. rather than one in which economic opportunities are widely shared and diffused. Third. particularly with respect to term limits and electoral cycles. prime ministers have proved to be very adept at commanding power—think of Vladimir Putin—and parliaments are often weak and sharply divided. reforms like trade liberalization and privatization tend to support the democratic process. then. Fourth. are surprising. democracy as a regime type is justified by its ability to deliver public goods to a broad spectrum of citizens. Nor do democracies reverse while undergoing the process of economic reform. 12 [Ethan. newly democratic states that do not provide adequate supplies of “public goods” like health care and education are unlikely to succeed. thus incapable of exercising authority. young democracies are often weakened by extreme levels of income inequality. The usual red flags here are changes—or attempts to change—the constitution. democracies are no more likely to be sustained by adopting parliamentary instead of presidential institutions. The reasons for democratic failure.Unstable Democracies are unstable---several reasons Kapstein. Rising income inequality indicates a dysfunctional democratic state in which economic power is concentrated in the hands of the few.org/blog/why-democracies-fail-lessons-mali] STRYKER The recent coups in the Maldives and Mali against democratically elected leaders. In fact. political economy. Venezuela. http://www. for example. Why. however.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Democracy Adv . First. nearly half have been reversed at some point. Among the leaders who have threatened their democracies in this way are Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Eduardo Correa in Ecuador. “Why Democracies Fail: Lessons from Mali?” 3/29/12. because of poor economic performance. as they bring forth entrepreneurs who provide a bulwark against an authoritarian backlash. inequality and growth. their very raison d’etre may be called into question. . As the “insiders”—the ethnically dominant group—centralize political power. of the 120 attempts at democratization that have occurred around the world since 1960. To the contrary. higher growth rates than those that are sustained over long periods of time. and Thailand. democratic states that are ethnically fragmented face severe challenges of institution building they may be unable to overcome. Some recent examples of fast growing democracies that have reversed include Russia.

” “End the Campaign to Spread Democracy. It results. Furthermore. democracy later. in countries with incomplete processes of nationbuilding. therefore. 08 [World Movement for Democracy. while there has been progress in the participation of women in the political arena. is the author of “The Quest for Self-Determination.wmd.nytimes. democracy support is likely to become problematic.html?_r=1&] STRYKER AFTER its victory in the ideological confrontation between two camps during the Cold War. the United States has been waging an ideological campaign to spread democracy around the world. unfortunately. must prepare for the long haul and adopt comprehensive approaches. The second challenge lies in the inadequate and inappropriate international approaches in supporting democratic development. often the emphasis lies on stability and reconstruction first. in countries moving out of violent conflict.com/2013/04/30/opinion/global/End-the-Campaign-to-Spread-Democracy. Confusing democracy promotion with regime change. Such practices – real or perceived – in the conduct of international cooperation by established democracies are giving democracy and democracy support. but it will be silenced by the thunderous storm of the human struggle for selfdetermination. Promoting democracy fails---forcing regimes doesn’t work Ronen. lecturer on psychology at Harvard Medical School.Promoting Democracy Fails Promoting democracy fails---strong resistance and carried out poorly WMD. This approach frequently entrenches the very political-economic interests which are the causes of conflict in the first place.” One can whistle the ideological campaign’s tune of democracy forcefully.” 4/30/13. The delivery of international support is not always compatible with the intrinsic values of democracy itself. successful international cooperation ought to be comprehensive by balancing the three interlinked objectives of democracy. they are still a minority in the power positions of even most democratic states. Such an approach has played into the hands of autocrats who are resisting necessary democratic reforms by playing up sentiments against perceived foreign intrusion in violation of the sovereignty of their countries.Exts #3 . Furthermore. in the promotion of liberal market reforms while reinforcing systems of autocracy in the process. security and development. Rather than sequencing approaches. Transitions to democracy do not move forward across straight lines and are bound to encounter backlashes. Confronting the Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century. The premise of “economic development first. The launching of the ideological campaign is most likely based on the conviction that the collapse of the Marxist/Communist Eastern camp during the Cold War proved once and for all the . It also is often accompanied by ‘double standards’ since only unfriendly regimes are targeted while “friendly tyrants” are treated much more leniently. Democracy activists.org/about/currentchallenges/current-challenges-democracy] STRYKER The process of learning to practice democracy meets challenges of various kinds . a bad name. That countries become economically as well as politically fit through democracy – as argued by the Nobel laureate Armatya Sen . The first challenge lies in the fact that democratization takes place in often still authoritarian environments that resist change. democracy later” still holds for much of international assistance. Does the process through which international support is delivered have as its ultimate goal a democratic outcome? Are the instruments used and procedures followed democratic? When they are not. This is not likely to happen. the wind is stronger . “Current Challenges to Democracy.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Democracy Adv . 13 *Dov. and in countries with poorly developed or skewed economies. and many of its citizens hope that the campaign will eventually be victorious.” 1/2008. http://www. is counter-productive and often inconsistent with the values of democracy.requires a comprehensive rethinking of how international assistance is delivered. and the international organizations that support them. for example. in countries with weak states that provide insufficient security to their citizens. An old proverb says: “ You cannot whistle against the wind. http://www. and even with the use of military force to remove a regime.

But neither peoples of the former Soviet empire. nor peoples of Yugoslavia. The victory only proved that the implementation of the Marxist idea failed in the Soviet empire.. Poles. Hungarians. So did participants in ethnic conflicts in the former Yugoslavia in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. This is not the case .” President Wilson also wrote in Article 3 of his first draft of the Covenant of the League of Nations: “The Contracting Powers unite in guaranteeing . . territorial adjustments . peoples of the Soviet empire did proclaim aspirations for democracy.. among others. “ No people must be forced under sovereignty under which it does not wish to live . Ukrainians. nor those in the Arab Spring uprisings aspired to democratic rule...NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab unquestionable superiority and universal applicability of democracy and its political and economic institutions. and the collapse of economies there did not lead to entrenchment of democracy but to the exercise of self-determination by Estonians. All these peoples aspired to what Woodrow Wilson advocated during and after World War I: self-determination. and so did participants in the Arab Spring uprisings some two decades later. as may in the future become necessary by reason of changes in the present social conditions and aspirations or present social and political relationships. including Chechens under Dzhokar Dudayev. He remarked. Yes.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Arctic Conflict .

will each nation position its military and police its territory? How will the Arctic states deal with China and other nations that have no formal jurisdictional claims but have strong interests in exploiting Arctic resources? How will Arctic and non-Arctic states work together to manage those resources beyond national jurisdictions. Putin of Russia. New shipping routes will compete with the Panama and Suez Canals. Several countries. At an Arctic Council meeting in Tromso. Obama should convene an international meeting with President Putin and other leaders of Arctic nations to ensure that economic development at the top of the world is not only sustainable. This unexpected transformation has radically altered the stakes for the Arctic. gas and mineral deposits. along with corporations like ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell. James G. each of the Arctic nations has adopted its own security policy to safeguard its sovereign rights. clearly understands the benefits of a northern sea route and of the hydrocarbon deposits on his nation’s continental shelf. In 1996. . and for millenniums before that. warned in 2010 of an “icy slope toward a zone of competition. this high-level forum has identified sustainable development and environmental protection as “common Arctic issues. as now. Sweden. Finland. how will they possibly cooperate to ease conflicts if they arise? Since 2006. even though tensions are now low. said “the world increasingly looks to the North” but did not go much further. as the effects of global warming are amplified in the high north. even as he has made the dangers of a warming earth a priority of his second term. how can the United States cooperate with other nations to resolve territorial disputes in the ocean? NATO’s top military commander. She called for “responsible management of resources” and efforts “to prevent and mitigate the effects of climate cha nge.” But another crucial concern — maintaining the peace — was shelved in the talks that led to the council’s creation. Today. a 1982 treaty governing use of the world’s oceans. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Russia. But if these nations are still too timid to discuss peace in the region when tensions are low. was that peace implied demilitarization. So far. Norway. especially for the eight nations and indigenous peoples JUST a quarter-century ago. or worse. Some states have increased military personnel and equipment there. Norway.” March 12. last year. whose economy is reliant on its rich deposits of oil and natural gas. Coastal areas that are home to indigenous communities are eroding into the sea. on the high seas and in the deep sea? Without ratifying the Convention on the Law of the Sea. creating an impregnable wilderness that humans rarely negotiated. Stavridis of the United States Navy. that surround it. identify the ways in which those policies reinforce or conflict with one another. How. without regulation. then the secretary of state. Mr. a zone of conflict” if the world’s leaders failed to ensure Arctic peace.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Arctic Conflict Advantage Frontline First. So have leaders of other Arctic nations. and has emphasized the importance of peace and cooperation in the Arctic. 2013 http://www. Vast fisheries are being opened to commercial harvesting. Whether it is through the Arctic Council or another entity. Both are essential.No chance of Arctic Conflict.Countries are maintaining peace in the region now Berkman 3/12 [Paul Arthur Berkman a biological oceanographer at the University of California. But we have heard virtually nothing from President Obama.” As the head of an Arctic superpower and a Nobel laureate. Canada. China and the European Union are among non-Arctic governments rushing to assert their interests in the region. But while there has been cooperation on extracting the region’s oil.nytimes.html?_r=0 accessed on August 1. The potential for such conflict is high. Santa Barbara. and then balance national interests with common interests. Adm. not just environmental and economic issues. What they must do now is compare their separate security policies. and exploiti ng its fisheries. The fear then. are preparing to exploit the region’s enormous oil and natural gas reserves.com/2013/03/13/opinion/preventing-an-arctic-cold-war. there needs to be a forum for discussing peace and stability. eight countries — the United States. is the author of “Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean: Promoting Co-operation and Preventing Conflict. but a forum for achieving those goals does not yet exist. for instance. President Vladimir V. We need “rules of the road” to take us safely into the Arctic’s future . 2013] JAKE LEE the Arctic Ocean was covered year-round by ice. but peaceful . Iceland and Denmark (which manages the foreign affairs and defense of Greenland) — and groups representing indigenous peoples established the Arctic Council to chart the region’s future. there has been little effort to develop legal mechanisms to prevent or adjudicate conflict. most of the ocean is open water during the summer and covered by ice only in the winter. The most fundamental challenge for the Arctic states is to promote cooperation and prevent conflict. It doesn’t.

Representatives of indigenous peoples have a consultative role. Hence. the coastal states declared their intention to settle any territorial conflicts within the framework of UNCLO S. On the other hand. Other coastal nations.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/SpecialFeature/Detail/?id=157901&contextid774=157901&contextid775=157922 accessed on August 1. and non-Arctic players like the EU and presumably China. consider these to be international waterways for which no authorisation for transit is necessary. Nevertheless. International maritime law and the pressure of nonArctic countries are also fostering multilateral cooperation.isn. Also. Norway takes the opposite view. Norway. the Council is a forum to promote coordination among the eight Arctic countries. This will weaken the case for additional national regulations and approval procedures. other nations could try to push for an opening of the area for exploration with reference to the Treaty. Founded in 1996. would undermine the current fragile balance and encourage other signatory states to question openly the scope of the Treaty. Staff writer for Wired on International Affairs. The 2010 border treaty between Russia and Norway indicates that bilateral agreements are possible – even though the power asymmetry between the two countries is reflected in a deal advantageous to Russia. and the UK assume this to be the case. since the commercial navigation routes are competing with non-Arctic sea routes and the use of these routes will correlate with the extent of their opening and the stability of the agreed arrangements . Many of these issues are taken on by the Arctic Council.Arctic players will hardly be able to assert themselves in this context. with the fisheries protection zone granting privileges to Russian fishing interests over other signatory states. Zero chance of escalation. Interests and positions diverge concerning the issue of sovereignty over the new sea routes as well. an agreement on standards for oil spill preparedness and response is expected. this region is occasionally identified as a potential area of future conflict. by contrast. Potential for conflict The scope of sovereign rights in the maritime area around the Svalbard archipelago. And. The treaty also states that the archipelago must not be used for offensive military purposes. such as the US. However. http://www. which will reinforce the current non-binding offshore oil and gas guidelines. which would extend the mining privileges of the coastal states at the expense of the interests of non-Arctic states. believed to be rich in oil and gas. Such an opening. In the Ilulissat Declaration adopted in 2008. The threats that arise for humans from the exceptional climatic situations are pushing actors towards cooperative approaches. Moreover. Likewise. even the Arctic coastal states do not agree on the legal status: Russia and Canada regard the routes as internal waterways in what is a very broad interpretation of UNCLO S. The modus vivendi has so far provided stability as it has served Russian interests too. and other nations. non. Cooperation among the littoral states is also advancing in the sensitive area of national sovereign rights . 8/9/12. would continue to enjoy international status. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) allows for the extension of the continental shelf towards the North Pole. no escalation of this conflict is to be expected. too . Wired. it remains unclear whether the Svalbard Treaty also applies to this zone. the right to levy taxes is limited to the administrative requirements of Svalbard. This is Against particularly apparent when considering “soft” security concerns such as environmental pollution resulting from the extraction of raw materials. 2013] JAKE LEE the background of the changes in the Arctic. What is more. Again. by contrast. In addition. but is usually accepted in practice. the US – which has not ratified UNCLO S – has signalled its willingness to observe it within the Arctic. the archipelago and the surrounding 200-mile zone are an undisputed part of Norwegian territory. the International Maritime Organisation is working on a binding Polar Code. has a strong interest in opening up the area for oil and gas exploration. but established a fisheries protection zone instead. is a question that is not easy to resolve.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Second. however. Countries such as Russia. By signing the declaration. All 40 signatory countries have the right to exploit natural resources and to conduct research. Oslo has not declared a full EEZ in this area. It was only later under UNCLO S that the EEZ emerged as an institution. For 2013. The water column and the animals living in it. the coastal states have been collaborating for a long time in the exploration of the sea bed. Iceland. the issue can ultimately only be resolved at a political level. One concrete result of the Arctic Council is a binding agreement on maritime search and rescue activities.ethz. Russia has sufficient oil and gas reserves at its disposal on its own territory. however. Zero Risk of Arctic Conflict – Just media hype Beckhusen 2012 (Robert. Due to the variety of the players concerned and the absence of international rules. It concedes fishing privileges to Russia. For the time being. Even if Norway were to take no action.wired. it is important first to point out that there is much scope for cooperation. On the one hand. This has never been explicitly acknowledged by these countries.there are treaties made to prevent conflict Grätz 12 *Jonas Grätz for Center for Security Studies (CSS) “The Arctic: Thaw With Conflict Potential” July 2012 http://www. This implies that ships flying foreign flags must request permission for transit. Norwegian sovereignty over the archipelago is substantially limited by the Svalbard Treaty of 1920. Provided that there are no major conflicts among these countries . at least in areas where all parties can still gain further sovereign rights. which will establish clear rules for polar navigation.com/dangerroom/2012/08/arctic/ ) Okuno . Iceland. Russia and Canada depend on the cooperation of foreign non-state and state-owned players in order to attract investments in their inadequate coastal infrastructures.

researchers and industry. the real breakthrough will come when there is a cross polar route. iron. says Nil Wang. a territory that recently got full control over its wealth of natural resources." And he believes the biggest story of the Arctic holds 13 percent of undiscovered oil and 30 percent of undiscovered gas supplies. This means greater shipping and mineral exploitation potential. This rose to 47 in 2012. The interest is reflected in the growing list of those wanting to have a foot in the Arctic council. U. subs are more advanced. South Korea and Japan have all expressed an interest in having a permanent observer status. Oh. and governments and businesses are in thrall to the potential exploitation of coal. Degeorges noted that "China has been the most active by far in the last years. Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev said Russia is planning to build a string of new naval bases in the Arctic.¶ On Monday. There is a lot of valuable goods that should be taken out of nature up there. This resource potential . running from the Atlantic to the Pacific along the top of Russia. "The Arctic has become a new meeting place for America. the . South Korea's president visited Greenland last year and shipping hubs like Singapore are holding Arctic conferences. sparking an Arctic resource war. While the US. 2013 http://euobserver.¶ The logic behind Russia’s Arctic bases is seductive. Iceland. For long a mystery because of its general impenetrability. and a swarm of media reports — and even videogames — about a hypothetical war on the northern horizon. a forum of eight countries with territory in the polar region. The thinking goes like this: As global warming causes the northern polar ice to recede — and one day disappear during the summer months — nations like Russia. Climate change experts can take a more precise look at a what global warming is doing to the planet. During a recent conference on Arctic shipping routes in the European Parliament." says Damien Degeorges. Canada is also splurging on Arctic drones. We don't want protectionism. According to Jan Fritz Hansen.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab The exaggerated fears of a coming Arctic war with Russia have largely receded since a media freakout last year.the North East Passge for which Russia asks high fees for transiting ships . Europe and the Asia Pacific.com/foreign/119479 accessed on August 3." he said. Meanwhile. For a ship travelling from the Netherlands to China. say experts. according to Moscow-based news wire RIA Novosti. Greenland is already at the centre of political tussle between the EU and China over future exploitation of its rare earths . Sweden. in 2011. Russia is also keen to exploit the route as the rise in temperatures is melting the permafrost in its northern territory. shipping trade routes once considered unthinkable are now possible. Arctic is not how it is traversed but what will be taken out of it. Everyone should be allowed to compete up there. Less assertive is the United States. At the moment there are are two options . Finland. melting ice caps are revealing more and more of the Arctic region to scientists. the route around 40 percent shorter than using the traditional Suez Canal. Russia’s plans to create a “combined-arms force” for the Arctic is also still on track. India. and their crews are better trained. But this is nonsense.used in a range of technologies such as hybrid cars or smart phones. gas and minerals hidden beneath.” There’s no word on what those double purposes might be. founder of the Arctic Policy and Economic Forum. 2013] JAKE LEE The Arctic has become a new frontier in international relations. The bases are intended to be “key double-purpose sites” for warships “in remote areas of the Arctic Seas. "The biggest adventure will be the Arctic destination. Russia and Canada form the council. Canada. which is boosting Coast Guard operations near Alaska. And. the United States has an overwhelming and decisive advantage in submarines.permanent ice . Bejing also cosied up to Iceland after the island's financial meltdown.has led to fears that the Arctic region is ripe for conflict. A huge saving for China. the EU commission. but fear of potential conflict in the resource-rich region is overblown. deputy director of the Danish shipowners’ association. Norway. His chief concern is that "trade up there is free.in the polar sea. For one. There were 37 transits of the North East Passage (NEP). a former Danish admiral and Arctic expert. the melting of the polar ice means no conflict Mahony 3/19 [Honor Mahony is a staff writer for the EU observer “Fears of Arctic conflict are 'overblown'” March 19.although tempered by the fact that much of it is not economically viable to exploit . Norway and the United States will scramble for the bountiful deposits of oil. Last year saw a record low of multi-year ice . there are more of them. But that isn’t stopping Russia from building new bases in the frigid north. It’s unlikely Arctic nations would also begin killing each other over low-key — and remote — territorial disputes. playing havoc with its roads and railways . China.or the much-less developed North West Passage along Canada." He points to its red-carpet treatment of politicians from Greenland. The interest is being spurred by melting icebergs. According to the US Geological Survey (2009).¶ But a war is exceedingly unlikely — because Russia would lose. The two undertook a joint expedition to the North Pole and the Chinese have the largest foreign embassy in Reykjavik.S. where 50 percent of its GDP is connected to shipping. Denmark. rare earths and oil.

¶ Speaking about power politics the U. business competition may create challenges in the future.the prospect of war. we were represented by General Charles Jacoby.thearcticinstitute. a growing cottage industry devotes itself to writing about the prospect of conflict among the Arctic nations and between those nations and non-Arctic states.No conflict coming No Arctic Conflict – all signs point towards cooperation Fries 2012 (Tom. 2/20/13. Infighting between federal agencies is rampant chatter about military activism isn’t backed up by much: Canada is engaged in a sad debate over the downgrading of the proposed all around. Prospects of political dominance in the Arctic provoke heated debates sometimes overdramatised by the media.strategicculture.¶ Looking beyond the media hype we should admit that political tension in the Arctic is low today. Cold-War-ish. as well as numerous “hotter” wars elsewhere that will take the lion’s share of our blood and Peaceful cooperation in arctic now – economic cooperation Alexeev 2/20 (Igor..no matter where you look. There is no sign of military standoff . the arc of this relationship bends towards cooperation . and journalist for the Strategic Culture Foundation specializing in oil and gas politics. http://www. blogger.” As a follower of Arctic news.org/2012/04/perspective-correction-how-we. like most massive organizations. In a more general sense. The Arctic Institute. and has been greatly inflated for the sake of the recent elections. the situation analysis should cover three important areas: «Military Capabilities in the Arctic» (SIPRI.org/news/2013/02/20/economic-cooperation-prevents-conflict-interests-in-arctic. Swedish experts agree with American conclusions. and Nanisivik port.it’s all good guys and bad guys. If we want to understand the Arctic better. which is mostly code for “China. but the portrayals of the states involved are cartoonish.Exts #1 . . sometimes military. remembrance of wars past. 2012) says. bureaucratic messes. The Arctic states maintain military presence in the region only to patrol and protect sovereign territories. False. http://www. Mahan’s work «The Influence of Sea Power Upon History» agree that seaborne commerce in the High North will become an important geopolitical factor over the next several decades. But realpolitik dictates that all states concerned should rely on existing legal and institutional framework enabling peaceful cooperation. Money is still scarce. Russian reporter... From last week's meeting of all eight Arctic nations' military top brass (excepting only the US. that power projection into the Arctic in 2010-2011 was very limited. The overwhelming weight of evidence suggests that the governments of the Arctic states are. Nevertheless. Many experts quoting Alfred T. Canada..¶ But there's a bigger misconception that underlies the predictions of future Arctic conflict that we read every week. all the time: eight articles last week.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Arctic Adv . five more already this week from the Moscow Times. treasure before the Arctic gets a drop of either.¶ This idea that some state might manage a political or military smash-and-grab while the rest of us are busy clipping our fingernails or walking the dog is ridiculous.S.html ) Okuno War and conflict sell papers -. the United States’ icebreaker fleet is barely worth mentioning and shows little sign of new life in the near-term future. unilaterally and secretly to pursue their interests in the Arctic. Russia’s talk about a greater Arctic presence we have viciously polarized governments in the US and. Scientific American or what-have-you. to a lesser extent. US Air Force assets are being moved 300+ miles south from Fairbanks to Anchorage. the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. head of NORAD and USNORTHCOM) to Russia-Norway collaboration on search & rescue. 4/18/12. Luckily the Arcitc Council has already established all necessary mechanisms to deliver credible and balanced military aspects. and I feel vindicated when I see the extent to which these countries' militaries collaborate in the high North. According to the Economist. Strategic Culture Foundation. military planners currently consider the Arctic to be «an area of low conflict». Sometimes this future conflict is portrayed as a political battle. legal environment and energy policy. as are political shoving matches between federal and state/provincial/regional governments. This is the (usually) unspoken assumption that the governments of these states are capable of acting quickly.html ) Okuno New technologies and climate change have significantly raised the profile of Arctic resources for the global economy. I see this every day. Background paper regional management. current wars.¶ I’m convinced that this is nonsense. Accordingly. from USCanada joint military exercises to US-Russia shared research in the Barents.

Norway's additional bid got the backing from the UN Continental Shelf Commission in 2009. the members of the Arctic Five – Denmark. “Russia filed its bid in 2001 and is gathering additional scientific proof to support it. Russian explorers traveled to the floor of the Arctic and planted a Russian flag on the seabed 4.” In May 2007. too.Boundaries have been set up and no one has attacked anyone RT 11 [News source for Russian Politics “Arctic not zone of interstate conflicts .” Vasilyev.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab along the borders . and should not be a subject of dispute. he added. who spoke at the Arctic Future Symposium. he said.000ft) below the North Pole in an effort to prove that an underwater area. there is no conflict between the countries that have filed their bids for the continental shelf already. Russia's special envoy and The Russian diplomat said there have been no conflicts involving territorial boundaries in the Arctic. led the expedition to plant a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole in 2007. no overlapping bids have been involved thus far. Besides. “ We are playing by the rules and we are working in the institutions . said in an interview with Interfax.” Vasilyev said. including the gathering of scientific evidence which lies in the realm of logic and natural sciences – physics. «there is no reason for drawing NATO into Arctic affairs». Norway and Denmark also made an Russia's final claim to a portion of the Arctic shelf would be filed with the Comission by December 2013. specially set up for this purpose. all members of the Arctic Council except the U. . Norway." "But most important. “We can see that our partners are doing the same.” he said.com/politics/arctic-russia-reserves-rights-785/ accessed on August 1. The Arctic Council and the Ilulissat Declaration (Greenland. gas and mineral reserves. we are to prove the same thing. 2011 http://rt. No risk of Arctic Conflict. Anton Vasilyev. known as the Lomonosov Ridge. We have done enormous work in this connection. Canada. "Contrary to some media reports and unconscientiously written commentaries.the situation is stable and predictable.” he said. 2008) provide a solid institutional and legal foundation for responsible management of the Arctic by the five coastal states. organized by the International Polar Foundation jointly with the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation." Vasilyev said. 2013] JAKE LEE The territories of the Arctic zone are already divided representative in the Arctic Council. geology. while Canada and Denmark could file their additional bids. The Arctic is a zone of peace now and should remain so. "Concerning the continental shelf. according to Arthur Tchilingarov. Under the Ilulissat declaration any demarcation issues in the Arctic should be resolved on a bilateral basis between contesting parties. which is thought to contain oil. As the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov put it in 2011. or will probably do so. Therefore any extension of NATO’s engagement in the Arctic is counterproductive. “Our proof and the proof to be provided by our partners. was an extension of its continental territor y. involves an enormous amount of work.200m (14. "It is a normal process and these countries are working to provide substantiation for their bids." The Arctic resources already prospected lie 95-97 percent within the zone of the Arctic states' sovereign rights. The Russian special envoy then spoke about the difficulties of proving claims so far below one of the coldest places on Earth.Russian diplomat” October 13. the veteran explorer who important treaty official submission into the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.S.¶ From the legal point of view the status of the Arctic is already specified in the provisions of the international law. ratified an the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). because according to the rules all of us abide by. Russia’s successful mission sparked something of a gold rush in the region. Russia and the United States – have established a dialogue and we exchange data and inform each other of the progress made in gathering additional proof to back our bids or in preparing new ones. because it could renew tensions nonexistant since the end of the Cold War. etc. told Interfax .

but the Russian Duma has refused to ratify it.¶ The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) gives each nation a ten-year period to register a claim to their portion of the continental shelf. That is completely false. 8/2/12. Sunday Business Post and Spiegel Online."¶ "Up to 97 percent of energy resources is actually belonging to someone already.com/foreign/119479 ) Okuno There is a general public perception that the Arctic region holds great potential for conflict because it is an ungoverned region where all these resources are waiting to be picked up by the one who gets there first..¶ Russia has been a pioneer in the research and development of Arctic fuel sources.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Arctic Adv . but simply postponed.¶ On top of that is a further 200 nautical miles of exclusive economic zone "where you own every value in the water and under the seabed. It spends millions of euros each year on research.No Escalation Zero chance of conflict – area is well-regulated Mahoney 3/18 (Honor. Norway and Denmark (via Greenland).000-meter descent to the seabed of the Arctic Ocean – a historic first.¶ And there was the seabed boundary dispute between Norway and Russia in the ."¶ As for the EU. is editor of the EU observer in Brussels and has also written for The Irish Times.Exts #2 . Other reasons for the pullout include the shale gas revolution in the United States.¶ He notes that it is an " extremely well-regulated region . and possible fishing wars as fish stocks move further north because of rising temperatures into areas with no fishing rules.¶ Foreign Ministry official Alexander Gorban expressed confidence that no such conflict over resources would ever take place. 9/12/12. No Arctic conflict– security measures Dyer 2012 (Gwynn. “Race for Arctic Resources Shouldn’t Spark New Cold War”. ¶ Gazprom announced last month that its foreign partners were withdrawing from the Shtokman project due to cost concerns. However. a Russian expeditionary team made a daring 4. The Sudbury Star." These include "ambiguous communication" (so that there is an impression of a security conflict). If valid.S. the legal uncertainty caused by the dispute is likelier to deter future investment in drilling there than lead to war.com/2012/08/02/wars-unlikely-over-arctics-resources ) Okuno In the Bering Strait. This area is said to hold some nine or ten trillion tons of hydrocarbon reserves. http://rt. Independent Journalist specializing in International Affairs.¶ If Russia’s claims are validated. which had been viewed as a primary export market for Shtokman.¶ But he concedes there are "risk factors. EU Observer. [other sources of fuel] will prevail.¶ Foreign companies like Total claimed that the project has not been canceled. The expedition aimed to prove that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of Russia's landmass." with international rules saying that coastal states have territorial jurisdiction up to 12 nautical miles off their coast. but in light of recent events involving the Shtokman field. environmental and social programmes in the Arctic area. the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed hopes that there will never be a “war for resources” – or an even “hotter” conflict – in the Arctic Region.¶ There are five Arctic-bordering countries that have laid claim to the vast deposits of natural resources deep below the region’s frigid waters: Russia. there is a treaty defining the seabed boundary between the U." says Wang." Gorban told Interfax on Wednesday.com/politics/arctic-resources-russia-gas-972/ ) Okuno With global demand for energy resources surging. and Russia. http://www. the United States (via Alaska).thesudburystar.¶ A fall-out in relations between the China and the US "Arctic itself will not create conflict .¶ "We are trying to fight for the Arctic shelf. which requires stable politics and security. In 2007. the find will increase the nation's claims on the continental shelf by 1.¶ He suggest the actors in the region all want to create a business environment. each country would have exclusive rights to resources on or below their area’s seabed. Canada. it has been seeking to gain a foothold in the region.2 million square kilometers (460. could also impact the Arctic region but the There would never be an Arctic Conflict – well-regulated RT 2012 (News source for Russian Politics. 3/18/13.000 square miles)." he said. http://euobserver.

with agreed catch limits.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Barents Sea. they can only do so by creating an international body to regulate fishing. and it’s hard to have a war over fish. All we have to worry about now is the ice is melting. which led Norway to double the size of its navy over the past decade.¶ So no war over the Arctic .¶ And they will have to let other countries fish there too. . But Sophs COPT Lab last year the two countries signed a deal dividing the disputed area and providing for joint exploitation of its resources.¶ Which leaves the fish. If countries with Arctic coastlines want to preserve this resource. But that’s a problem for another day. So no war between NATO and the Russian Federation.

there’s only a problem if there is some disagreement about the seabed the traffic. Geological Survey has forecast may contain almost one-fourth of the world’s remaining oil and gas resources. boundaries. In the end I didn’t do the interview because the Skype didn’t work. so I didn’t get the chance to rain on their parade. 2012 http://www. 2013] JAKE LEE Arctic resources. But from a military point of view. which led Norway to double the size of its navy over the past decade. Canada is getting new Arctic patrol vessels and building a deep-water naval port and Arctic warfare training centre in the region. In the Bering Strait. signed in the dying days of the Soviet Union. since it is mostly international waters. and it was all the usual stuff about how there will be big strategic conflicts over the seabed resources — especially oil and gas — that become accessible when it’s gone. in their own interests. So no war over the Arctic. with agreed catch limits. and it’s hard to have a war over fish.S. “Sorry.com/opinion-story/2251611-sorry-generals-nowar-over-the-warming-arctic accessed on August 3. The media always love conflict. Practically every summer Prime Minister Stephen Harper travels north to declare his determination to defend Canada’s Arctic sovereignty from — well.thespec. Russia’s “Northern Sea Route” will get Then there’s the hydrocarbon deposits under the Arctic seabed. The danger is rather that the world’s fishing fleets will crowd in and clean the fish out . Under the seabed. The sea lanes are mainly a Canadian obsession. so where are the flashpoints and what are the strategies? It’s great fun to speculate about possible wars. there are the sea lanes that are opening up to commercial traffic along the northern coasts of Russia and Canada. Two are between Canada and its eastern and western neighbours in Alaska and Greenland. And they will have to let other countries fish there too. but the shipping w ill not go through Canadian waters. The Arctic Ocean will increasingly be Russian television contacted me the other night asking me to go on a program about the race for used as a shortcut between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.the ice is melting to fast Dyer 12 [Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.Ice melting There will be no Arctic conflict. However. And in the water in between. and now the Cold War is long gone.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Arctic Adv . generals: No war over the warming Arctic” August 4. But last year the two countries signed an agreement dividing the disputed area right down the middle and providing for joint exploitation of its resources. but it’s a great photo op. there are potential oil and gas deposits that can be drilled once the ice retreats. there is the planet’s last unfished ocean. There are three separate “resources” in the Arctic. All we have to worry about now is the fact that the ice IS melting. They will be driven to co-operate. there’s no other potential military confrontation between the great powers to worry about. And then there was the seabed boundary dispute between Norway and Russia in the Barents Sea. but there is zero likelihood of a war between Canada and the United States or Denmark (which is responsible for Gr eenland’s defence). it’s not clear from exactly whom. But that’s a problem for another day. because it’s already open and much safer to navigate. But here’s what I would said to the Russians. . there is a treaty defining the seabed boundary between the United States and Russia. but the Russian Duma has refused to ratify it . The ice is melting fast. There are only four areas where the boundaries are disputed. they can only do so by creating an international body to regulate the fishing. On the surface. Governments around the Arctic Ocean are beefing up armed forces for the coming struggle. because the government believes the North-West Passage that weaves between Canada’s Arctic islands will become a major commercial artery. which will ultimately raise sea levels worldwide by seven metres.Exts #4 . Which leaves the fish. the legal uncertainty caused by the dispute is likelier to deter future investment in drilling there than to lead to war. but it’s all much ado about nothing. which the U. If the countries with Arctic coastlines want to preserve this resource.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Bioterror .

as well as against emerging infectious diseases that could arise through natural epidemics. http://www. which will fund.6 billion over a 10-year period to acquire products for the SNS. They may also be used to contaminate nonliving substances such as air. animals or vegetation.4 million grant award from NIAID. Inc. And. and VeloThrax™ (anthrax vaccine) that are stable at elevated temperatures. and those that are available for current deployment are based on outdated and sometimes ineffective technologies.solves the impact to an attack Soligenex 13 (Soligenex Inc. is addressing the development of products and technologies that can be used to protect against several biological threats considered agents of bioterrorism. easily obtainable and inexpensive to produce. finding a means of distributing the substances is difficult. Bioweapons can’t spread – won’t cause epidemic Bailey 13 (Regina Bailey is an About. bioweapon defense is getting better .com Guide who holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Emory University. This approach is being taken because the known mechanism of protection against toxin exposure is mediated through antibodies in the serum or present on mucosal surfaces that can be elicited by vaccination with subunit immunogens. since the government itself will be the final supplier of the products.com/od/biotechnologycloning/a/biological-weapons. These substances work to kill or incapacitate the host.about. In addition. primarily sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Defense (DoD). consistent with biological warfare threats and emerging diseases that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). The existence of BARDA creates a situation in which products arising from research. Biological agents distributed by air may also be destroyed by UV light or rain may wash them away. easily transferable from person to person.shtml. Website last updated 2013) Deng Since 2001. water and soil. for gastrointestinal Acute Radiation Synd rome (ARS). can be prioritized and then developed for large-scale manufacturing and clinical evaluation. With very few exceptions. infectious diseases. Biological weapons may be used to target living organisms such as humans. One possible way is through aerosols. While it is possible to develop biological weapons from microbes. which allocated $5. and ultimately acquisition of the product for the SNS. Many of these products will only be used in the event of an emergency. oral beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP).NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Bioterrorism Advantage Frontline First. or have no known vaccine. the development of formulation and manufacturing processes for vaccines. Soligenix is expanding the range of applicability of its lead product. The federal government has previously established a special fund to acquire biological warfare countermeasures (termed Project Bioshield). There is a growing need for products that protect the population against such agents of bioterrorism. Website last updated 2013) Deng Biological Weapons Biological weapons are toxic materials produced from pathogenic organisms (usually microbes) or artificially manufactured toxic substances that are used to intentionally interfere with the biological processes of a host. Biological Weapons. the US government has recently established the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). BioDefense and Emerging Diseases. typically bacteria. This can be ineffective as the materials often get clogged when spraying. Soligenix. can be dispersed in aerosol form. http://biology. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing products to treat inflammatory diseases and biodefense countermeasures. in Atlanta. a new sense of vulnerability to radiation.htm. There are a variety of microorganisms that can be used as biological weapons. Products to combat biological warfare or bioterrorism will be supplied to the population from medicines stored in the US Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). a division of the NIH. such products do not exist. Currently.. Soligenix is operating under a $9. toxins and chemical agents has generated significant research and development efforts to identify and produce innovative therapies and means to protect against threats that could be used as biological weapons. has identified as high priorities. Realizing that many of these countermeasures do not yet exist. referred to as OrbeShield™. including RiVax™ (ricin toxin vaccine). Ga. Another method of distribution may be to attach the toxins to a bomb so that they may be released upon explosion. Soligenix's process for product development of biodefense products is highly cooperative with government funding. The grant will also fund the development of improved thermostable adjuvants expected to result in rapidly acting vaccines that can be given with fewer injections over shorter intervals. Agents are commonly chosen because they are highly toxic. over a five-year period.com/prod_def.soligenix. The problem with this is that the microbes will most likely be destroyed by the explosion as well. . Soligenix is developing several potential products to prevent morbidity and mortality due to the threat of biological toxins for which preventive vaccination is the most feasible means to protect a susceptible population.

we believe that if al Qaeda possessed the capability to conduct a spectacular attack it would launch the attack as soon as it was operationally ready. rather than wait for some specific date. Because of this.Exts #1 . The risk of discovery is simply too great. who reportedly died in a strike by a U. bin Laden has been killed as well as senior al Qaeda leader Atiyah Abd alRahman. Some people believe there is a greater chance of an attack on this year's 9/11 anniversary because of the killing of bin Laden. while others note that al-Zawahiri may feel pressure to conduct an attack in order to prove his credibility as al Qaeda's new leader. we do not believe that the pressure to conduct a successful attack is any heavier on al-Zawahiri today than it was prior to bin Laden's death. unmanned aerial vehicle Aug.No attack . we noted in December 2007 that the al Qaeda core had been under considerable pressure to prove itself relevant for several years and that.Al Qaeda No risk of Al Qaeda attack Stewart 11 (Scott 1/8/11 “Why Al Qaeda is Unlikely to Execute Another 9/11” http://www. We also believe the group no longer has the same operational capability in terms of international travel and the ability to transfer money that it had prior to 9/11.especially in light of the intelligence gathered in the raid on bin Laden's hideout. 22 in Pakistan's North Waziristan region. Our belief. As to the pressure on al-Zawahiri. .com/weekly/20110831-why-al-qaeda-unlikely-execute-another-911) Scullion Since we published our 2011 forecast.stratfor.S. is that al Qaeda has been doing its utmost to attack the United States and has not pulled any punches. The core group simply does not enjoy the operational freedom it did prior to September 2001. we do not believe it possesses the ability to increase this effort beyond where it was prior to bin Laden's death. had yet to deliver. We continue to believe that the al Qaeda core group is off balance and concerned for its security -. as noted above.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Bioterror Adv . despite this pressure. Finally. Because of this.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Disease .

allowing the production of safe. a leading cause of invasive infections. which is responsible for typhoid fever. As a result. The squalene-containing. Although LYMErix was effective against Lyme disease in adults. is now being studied. and routes of delivery for vaccines. these techniques were used to develop the first recombinant vaccine. infectious agents or potentially toxic components of those agents need to be handled. National Center for Biotechnology Information. http://www. in 2000. To accept the newer vaccine technology. thus reducing overall costs. confusion persists about the best course going forward.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Disease Advantage Frontline 1 . For several years. measles. but progress often comes at a significant short-term cost. The surface proteins from circulating strains can be cloned into plasmids and are co-expressed with a set of virtually all vaccines licensed from this point forward will involve some form of genetic engineering. and HPV—are manufactured according to these techniques. For example. Pediatrician in Chief at Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital. costs are reduced. since the original licensing of the mineral salts. are being used to express immunogenic foreign proteins outside of the context of the virulent parent organism.” or regeneration of infectious organisms in culture. In the past.12 It may be possible to create vaccine cocktails directed against several different pathogens by inserting multiple proteins into a single vector or by mixing several vaccines made with the same viral vector but expressing different proteins. rotavirus. the hepatitis B vaccine. and anthrax. but they do not contain the necessary material to replicate. such as for Pap smears and colposcopies. particularly in terms of benefits.14 In 1987. for the concomitant use with vaccines are the mineral salts calcium phosphate and alum. This vaccine enabled the . rubella.S. the application of conjugation as a method of adjuvantation led to the approval of a highly effective vaccine against H. a quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine licensed in the U.2. such as adverse events and hospitalizations. approved in 2006. however.S. Who should and will pay for these anticipated improvements in health? How will this period of change be managed? This article describes the present “vaccine revolution” and attempts to answer thes e questions. January 2008. The current process for making influenza vaccine relies on selecting appropriate vaccine strains from among many candidates generated by chance. managed care organizations (MCOs) are confronted with several questions. adenoviruses in which critical virulence genes are deleted have been used to express proteins from HIV19 and are being utilized in clinical trials for many other pathogens such as the Ebola virus and malaria. LYMErix. by increasing the levels of protective immune responses. the quantity of antigen produced. will undoubtedly create new challenges. vaccines from viruses created by combining genes from more than one organism or strain). options for the utilization of vaccines in the area of managed care had been quite limited because of the use today were developed by techniques that were pioneered more than 100 years ago and do not represent the full potential of the field. is driving a search for new vaccine adjuvants. ongoing problems remain in the short term. primarily in adults. hookworm. poliomyelitis. We predict that the development of Entire viral genomes can now be cloned into bacterial or yeast vectors. and the purity of the product are improved. most vaccines in The introduction of genetic engineering has fueled rapid advances in vaccine technology and is now leading to the entry of new products in the marketplace. including meningitis. Scientific progress and these broadened applications will no doubt result in improved health-based outcomes. eliminating several steps in the generation of seed stocks.21 In conjunction with new technology for vaccines. Influenza virus vaccines can serve as an example. coupled with the success of conjugation for polysaccharide-based vaccines. further enhancing safety. and Haemophilus influenzae type b invasive disease.17 Undesirable traits. The previous century’s successes in utilization or ineffectiveness of available vaccines.nlm.nih. including the three biggest killers— care.16 The success of this approach has led to the development of other polysaccharide conjugate vaccines. Many other recombinant vaccines are currently being evaluated in clinical trials to determine their activity against such varied targets as malaria. Merck’s vaccine to protect against HPV. by eliminating or postponing the need for booster injections.e. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are self-assembling constructs that express a viral antigen.15 Polysaccharide-based vaccines in general are poorly immunogenic. In the 1970s. possibly.17 A variety of virus types. in 2004. one recombinant vaccine.S. Most vaccines in use today were developed by one of two classic methods. MCOs will require not only improved mortality data but also cost-efficacy data with long-term proven outcomes accompanied by lower medical and pharmacy expenses. thereby improving outcomes. MCOs are beginning to analyze data involving comparisons of outlays for resources for specific outcomes. Although progress in vaccine technology has the potential to prevent illness and reduce the economic burden of diseases in the long term. This advance has the potential to improve overall outcomes and achieve cost-savings by allowing lower doses to be used and.6 All but three vaccines in the currently recommended immunization schedule in the U. As an example.S.. Although no new adjuvants have been approved in the U. another oil-in-water emulsion from GSK enhanced the immunogenicity of a potential pandemic influenza vaccine.4 The attenuation of live organisms. Adjunct faculty at St Jude Children’s Research Hospital. by eliciting responses from different arms of the immune system or by broadening the scope of covered immunogens. coupled with novel. The only adjuvants currently approved in the U. Salmon and Smith pioneered the inactivation of an organism and the injection of immunogenic components. and potential side effects are minimized. many other diseases.3 reducing the primary causes of mortality in childhood now include protecting against infectious agents that can result in significant morbidity.12 The second major advance in the 1980s was in the area of adjuvantation. a manufacturer might be able to differentiate its product from a competing one. a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine approved in the U. as first attempted by Louis Pasteur.ncbi. particularly in small children.5 was adapted to modern vaccine technology by Enders et al.Advances in vaccine technology solve disease extinction McCullers 2008 [Jonathan. the use of new vaccines for human papillomavirus (HPV) must result in fewer cases of cervical cancer as well as in reduced cost savings in related medical expenses. New compounds may enhance immunogenicity quantitatively. This technol ogy was used to develop Gardasil. Chair of the Department of Pediatrics at University of Tennessee. cytomegalovirus. For example. historically straightforward application of immunizations. tuberculosis. high-yield vaccines. parvovirus.18 The use of plasmid-based methods also has the potential to hasten production of reassortant vaccines (i. In this way. Although it is true that improved outcomes are the goal of health care technology and that preventing disease is preferable to treatment. more effective formulations. because of the under- Recent advances in vaccine technology stemming from the application of genetic engineering are now providing an opportunity to target new diseases. including those causing diphtheria. engineered by these methods to be safe in humans. in 1986.9 Recombinant technology enables the target antigen to be produced outside the context of the parent organism. However.S. such that no live. thus improving overall immunogenicity and lengthening the period of effectiveness.S. In the 19th century. allowing manipulation of genes prior to “rescue. MD.20 It is also possible to deliver the immunogenic proteins without using a replication-competent.22 In a clinical trial in humans. in the 1950s.The advent of vaccines to prevent deadly childhood illnesses was one of the great success stories of the 20th century. and qualitatively.10 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) withdrew this product in 2002 because of declining sales and negative publicity. efficacy is increased.11 This outcome has dampened enthusiasm for further development of human vaccines against Lyme disease. cost efficacy has been used to evaluate other classes of injectable vaccines. live virus. but it has not had an adverse impact on the prospects for creating a vaccine that uses a similar strategy of a recombinant protein against other infectious agents.7. and Menactra (Sanofi-Pasteur). and malaria—have not yet been adequately targeted by a vaccine effective enough to achieve a similar outcome.13 Mineral salts are still used in some inactivated vaccines.1 However. “backbone” genes responsible for high growth in eggs but attenuation in humans. the vaccine’s safety. oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant MF59 from Novartis has been approved in Europe for use in influenza vaccines targeted to the elderly population. A vaccine directed against the serotypes of Salmonella typhi. and formulary management. such as the multibasic cleavage site found in the main attachment protein of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Conjugating polysaccharides to a toxoid carrier converts these antigens from T-independent to T-dependent antigens. The growing number and type of vaccine targets. and it is a good method of comparing products when no head-to-head studies have been conducted. In addition. some common vaccine-preventable diseases such as influenza and pertussis continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality. mumps. has been approved. human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. including Prevnar (Wyeth). —those directed against hepatitis B virus. Since the advent of the hepatitis B vaccine in 1998. aluminum salts were included in early influenza vaccine formulations but were removed when the vaccines showed comparable immunogenicity in the absence of these salts. but their effectiveness is modest at best.. several compounds appear close to being approved. in children. because of a lack of T-cell help for the B-cell–dependent antibody response. a pair of key discoveries—the expression of proteins in plasmids and the ability to sequence DNA—ushered in the era of genetic engineering. Given the current underutilization of vaccines (even when patients have no copayments) and the expanding use of vaccines to cover morbidity rather than mortality. reimbursement. Adjuvants are used to improve the presentation of an antigen to the immune system or to enhance its immunogenicity.8 A decade later.12 The ongoing problem of suboptimal immunogenicity of protein-based vaccines. adjuvants are also needed. These techniques enable the rapid custom design of organisms for use in vaccines. adjuvants. tetanus. can be “edited out” at the DNA level before rescue of the virus.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2730064/] Bak The discovery of vaccines has led to the near eradication of several important diseases and has had a tremendous impact on health for a relatively low cost. which are becoming increasingly important in managed Universal immunization against certain diseases has led to the eradication of smallpox and has almost completely eliminated many other infectious agents in the U. influenzae type b. whereas molecular methods allow complete control over the output.

an MCO might direct the product’s use to ensure its appropriateness for that segment. attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist is given as a nasal spray. including mucosal immunoglobulin A.001. and it induced responses that were cross-reactive in several clades (distinct virus groupings). Most organizations that practice evidence -based medicine acknowledge that both pharmacy and medical dollars often need to be spent in order to realize improved overall outcomes and reduced long-term expenses. using data from SelectHealth.. or age limitations.1 However. There will be a growing emphasis on providing evidence-based medicine demonstrating tangible. Redness or swelling at an injection site are two common ex amples. For example. typically mediated by the immune response to the vaccine rather than by the product’s direct toxicological effects. Although short-term benefits offer immediate returns to MCOs. In this context. These dual benefits—extending the time that antibody levels are maintained above the threshold required for neutralization of the organism and enhancing the capacity of the patient to respond to a booster immunization —are important for future planning and estimating costs.32 Even with these new goals and with the trend of therapeutic vaccines moving toward targeting morbidity rather than mortality. as well as other potential uses for them. the cost–benefit relationship for the new generation of vaccines that can target reductions in morbidity or prevent rare and costly illnesses such as cancer is less clear. thereby resulting in improved success and in protection of the company’s financial investment. eventually. The questions of how these innovations will be funded and who will fund them may become more fluid. seven to 18 years of age. However. would need to address this matter Rapid advances in our understanding of the immune system and our desire to engineer both preventive and therapeutic vaccines for a wide spectrum of diseases are fueling changes in medicine and in the managed care industry. and the rotavirus vaccine. employers. prior authorizations) to ensure that the most appropriate patients are being targeted with that tool or lab value. the extent of managed care’s involvement was limited to assisting in acquiring supplies for some integrated systems. and inactivated polio vaccine]) and for adults (e. this traditional approach may be re-examined in some areas. If it can be shown that a product improves compliance and clinical outcomes while reducing costs. Many of these vaccines are administered multiple times. 45. as well as ASO4. In this regard. vaccines were not on the “radar screen” for managed care before some of the recent product launches. the advent of newer vaccines that target diseases causing morbidity rather than mortality in the U.12 In the past. A desire to simplify the regimen is fueling a trend toward combination vaccines. novel routes of delivery are also being investigated. proven results.25 The ability of certain adjuvants to enhance the levels of memory B cells and antibodies. In concert with the advances in vaccine engineering and adjuvantation.1%. documented clinical and financial outcomes and targeted disease states will be playing a significant role in determining how health plans approach the placement of vaccine products. As more costly vaccines enter the market. which has the advantage of not requiring a needle. Again.33 but the costs associated with the increasing options are beginning to strain both public and private systems. there is an increasing awareness of the need to look at the “bigger picture” and to have less “siloing” between pharmacy and medical divisions. products with the greatest clinical impact on the broadest population have been favored. adherence is likely to be a key issue in the future. . GSK’s Twinrix for hepatitis A and B). Most health plans have liberal coverage and reimbursement policies for vaccines. There will always and ensure that all parties act in concert through their investments in the short-term and long-term health of the community. is the plan making the investment placed at a disadvantage in terms of premiums? Community-wide standards. Therapeutic vaccines for chronic infectious diseases such as hepatitis B. As we mentioned earlier.12 and therapeutic vaccines designed to treat or ameliorate different types of cancer after it has occurred are also being pursued. Expectations about reimbursement levels and profitability may need to be addressed to ensure that all parties involved—health plans. These types of analyses place a greater value on cost-effectiveness. is already being used for several vaccines. The benefits of childhood vaccines in reducing mortality alone are undeniable. These products target essentially the same disease processes as those targeted by vaccines already approved. P = 0. an MCO might use controls (e. licensed in the U. clinical. be a need to balance cost.12.2% vs. most plans offer broad vaccine coverage. one goal remains: making sure that the best vaccines reach the right patients with few impediments. new combinations are being app roved for children (e. that vaccine may benefit from preferential positioning by health plans.. in view of the HPV vaccine (Gardasil). For instance. Although many combined vaccines have been used historically (e. MCOs tended not to pay a premium for convenience alone. 15 different vaccines were recommended for children from birth to six years of age. pentavalent vaccines such as GSK’s Pediarix [diphtheria. are likely to exacerbate this problem. the emphasis should be on outcomes and cost-effectiveness. In 2007. to differing levels of reimbursement. is delivered orally. hepatitis B.21. safety.g. this question needs to be addressed. the introduction of newer vaccines has led to a greater number of nontraditional vaccinators. Many payment and reimbursement structures—ranging from universal coverage. working with quality on Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measures. because it is crucial that MCOs not waste money... however. Intradermal delivery directly to an environment rich in antigen-presenting cells (APCs) is considered to be a dose-sparing measure for several vaccines. we need to better define the correlates of immunity for specific vaccines. if this reviewing body begins to cover certain vaccines or populations.. knowing this parameter and other related measures is desirable and sometimes necessary. If an alternative (needle-free) route of delivery is associated with improved outcomes. we might simply derive the answer if we know which product provides better protection against the HPV types most commonly linked to cervical cancer in a cost-effective manner. Vaccines exemplify the premise behind managed care to promote wellness and prevent disease while also avoiding unnecessary treatment-related costs. In health care. the financial implications. reactogenicity refers to the generally undesirable effects of the vaccine. significantly higher antibody titers were observed when ASO4 was included. including those used for HIV and influenza.S in 2006. In one study comparing ASO4 plus alum with alum alone against HPV. The promise of a brighter future is motivation up to a point. the traditional model of medical coverage may need to evolve.g. such as pharmacies and businesses traditionally outside the health care system that are now becoming acquainted with. the question of whether different vaccines created an equivalent reduction in morbidity and mortality for the same cost was not asked. The development and approval of new vaccines against infectious diseases. Merck’s Gardasil was the first vaccine licensed with a primary indication to prevent cervical cancer. Again.26 has implications for the longevity of the response as well. Previously. as the health care dollar is stretched. The threshold necessary for neutralization differs among various organisms. and budgetimpact data for the newer vaccines—data that have been lacking in the past. (e. pertussis. The role of activism and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines will remain important variables. acellular pertussis. With each new adjuvant and each new combination of adjuvant and vaccine. this criterion might not remain as important. we must still ask: How should efficacy be analyzed? Although 100% efficacy is rarely seen. with many alternative options to be explored. and cytomegalovirus are being studied. Despite this rapid technical progress. which might be attributable to the novel adjuvant ASO4. traveler’s diarrhea. t he financial implications for health plans and physicians will become more pronounced.. the immunization schedule for children was already crowded.31 The mucosal route of delivery may contribute to the heterovariant cross-protection seen with both of these vaccines by inducing broader immunity. however. although there might be restrictions based on product labels. retrospectively compared children receiving the HEDIS Combination 2 vaccine series with those receiving each vaccine series individually.28. is whether the potential of lower reactogenicity from an established adjuvant is more important than the potential for a stronger and possibly more durable immunogenic response. and MF59. Other preventive cancer vaccines are also in development. Considering the rising costs of research and development. If a screening tool or a la boratory value can narrow the pool of patients to those who are most likely to benefit from a vaccine. and patients—feel their contribution is significant. With some of the newer agents. This is because many health plans routinely follow the ACIP’s recommendations. Happe et al. HIV.27 Needle-free variants of this route. many of which are in clinical trials. The debate over who will pay and how much will be paid will only intensify. 37. In the past. long-term clinical benefits and cost effectiveness. such a premium might be worth the additional investment. With most of these alternatives. The live. and 14 were recommended for older children. such as trans-dermal patches and electroporation. The success of vaccines against childhood diseases has created enthusiasm for researching additional targets.5%.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab dose to be reduced. and economic impact.12. P < 0.34 By two years of age. as are vaccines designed to halt or reverse the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.S. both clinical and financial. With the arrival of many new biologic agents and vaccines. and adults may need additional boosters.S. Ultimately. Advances in vaccine technology necessitate concomitant advances in vaccine immunology. effective from the first dollar. Further. longevity. The entry of the live attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist (MedImmune) into the market in 2004 and the anticipated introduction of a second HPV vaccine (Cervarix. A second HPV v accine. Vaccines remain the single best investment in health care. in some cases to numbers much higher than those seen with natural infection. If one plan invests liberally in vaccine benefits but a competitor does not. physicians. and they may have the unintended consequence of damaging a company’s reputation. it would be irresponsible for these health plans to focus exclusively on these benefits and deny coverage of vaccines in an effort to save money. ASO4 has been studied in conjunction with both hepatitis B and HPV vaccines. guidelines. For physicians. and MCOs will have to evaluate them closely in terms of their efficacy. One obstacle that affects this “investment” is the phenomenon of continuous enrollment in areas of the community with high competition for plan enrollees. are also being tested for conditions as diverse as influenza. many plans will probably follow those guidelines.g. Such restrictions place the broader population at risk. potentially. and melanoma. the question confronting MCOs. agreed upon by health plans. For example.26 This capability can reduce the vaccine’s developmental costs and the time to market.26 This advantage was maintained during long-term follow-up. and participating in clinics and health fairs. Another way to increase the value of future vaccines would be to quantify both the possible short-term and long-term cost offsets attributable to the availability of the specific product. The main challenge will be to balance immunogenicity in the newer formulations while maintaining their benefits of easier administration and lower costs. Mucosal delivery is also being studied for several other potential vaccines directed against diseases such as HIV infection and tuberculosis.g. and perhaps broadened coverage of strains must be balanced with the potential for increased reactogenicity.001 respectively). employers. but they differ in their approach and. GSK) present new challenges. a focus on short -term benefits puts health plans at a disadvantage in terms of competing for participants during enrollment. than children receiving each series individually (86. as well as the future role of genomics. Small employers with a pool of healthy young employees might not be interested in covering vaccines for disease states with poorly documented short-term benefits.23Clinical trials of GSK’s VLP-based HPV vaccine Cervarix have shown similar cross-protective responses to subtypes not included in the vaccine. diphtheria. such as a standard coverage (100%) versus a nonstandard benefit (a 20% plan member copayment)—will be analyzed and reviewed by those responsible for funding these advances. in their clinical effectiveness. and physicians. The demand for vaccines by employers and physicians is also an important consideration. For instance. will be required. and challenged by. Individual health plan members and small employers might be less willing to cover the cost of new vaccines because of the possibly significant impact on premiums. rotavirus or herpes zoster) is encouraging MCOs to perform more clinical and economic analyses in order to ensure that their investments in vaccination are being maximized. if a vaccine works in a portion of the population and that segment can be identified. another desirable feature of adjuvants is their ability to be paired with multiple antigens so that they can be included in different vaccines. and our advancements in science will force all parties to alter their approaches to treatment. efficacy. and tetanus). and choice.24.30.29 Mucosal delivery. 74. the advantages of increased immunogenicity. Cervarix is being considered for licensure in the U.9% vs.g. tetanus. The availability of similar products is relatively new in the world of vaccines. and vaccinated within the recommended age ranges. Additional studies with data indicating improved compliance rates and outcomes support the value of this technological advancement. children in the combination cohort were more likely to have been fully vaccinated. and this approach is considered to offer a good return on investment. However.

on average. Why? Are we losing ground in the "arms war"? Is this due to increased exposure to otherwise remote part of the globe? Is it a natural cycle of infectious disease? Is it a result of a declining global environment? Has the irresponsible use of technology contributed to this problem? Why is Lyme disease more prevalent now? How much of what is called "Lyme disease" is some other infectious disease? Could some of these patients be infected with seronegative syphilis? What can we do to reduce the number of infected ticks in our environment? . suggesting that rare or depleted species should be less subject to host-specific disease. 3. A pathogen will spread when.eemb.com/tnaold. August 2005. although endangered species at low density may be less susceptible to a disease outbreak. Extinction in the absence of stochasticity is possible if alternate hosts (sometimes called reservoir hosts) relax the extent to which transmission depends on the density of the endangered host species. infectious disease will always exist. http://www.specific pathogen cannot drive its host to extinction (McCallum and Dobson 1995). February 1. 2001). and given the usual assumption of disease models that the chance that a susceptible host will become infected is proportional to the density of infected hosts (the mass action assumption) a host. New organisms are being recognized. As we develop new therapeutic agents. Evolution. Most epidemiological models indicate that there is a host threshold density (or local population size) below which a parasite cannot invade. A fundamental principle of epidemiology is that the spread of an infectious disease through a population is a function of the density of both susceptible and infectious hosts. or the host is able to mount an immune response. yet increasing. southern sea otters. These possibilities suggest that the complexities characteristic of many real host– pathogen systems may have very direct implications for the recovery of rare endangered specie of extinction by disease. For example. In the absence of stochastic factors (such as those modeled in PVA). 2001. Infectious agents are continually evolving.No solvency for impacts---New infectious diseases will always appear and quicker than medical tech advances Bransfield 01 (Dr. Similarly. PhD. Anderson and May 1991). Many poorly understood diseases were later found to have an infectious disease basis. the impact of a pathogen on a declining population is likely to decrease as the host population declines. Gerber et al.pdf] Bak The density of a population is an important parameter for both PVA and host–pathogen theory.edu/kuris/armand/pubs/Gerber_etal_05_EA. For this reason. populations.D..NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab 2. and Environmental Science Ecological Society of America. 2004). This has implications for small. https://labs.mentalhealthandillness.ucsb. microbes evolve defenses against this technology. if transmission occurs at a rate proportional to the frequency of infected hosts relative to uninfected hosts (see McCallum et al.g. the parasite population may eventually reduce the density of susceptible hosts to a level at which the rate of parasite increase is no longer positive. “The Neuropsychiatric Assessment of Lyme Disease”. We are seeing increasing problems with infectious disease in humans and animals. endangered hosts at low density may still face the threat of extinction by disease. Robert Carroll Bransfield M.html ) Ji Microbes evolve faster than people. Associate Professor of Ecology.Disease can’t cause extinction – Burnout theory Gerber 2005 [Leah. If the parasite affects the reproduction or mortality of its host. recovery to higher densities places them an increasing risk of future disease-related decline (e. If infectious agents are supportable by the host species of conservation interest. These possibilities suggest that the complexities characteristic of many real host– pathogen systems may have very direct implications or the recovery of rare endangered species. it is able to transmit to a susceptible host before an infected host dies or eliminates the infection (Kermack and McKendrick 1927. and old ones develop new capabilities.

Thanks to polio eradication efforts. Harvard University scientists calculated that spending on the GAVI Alliance’s program to expand vaccine coverage would deliver a rate of ret urn of 18 percent by 2020.S. World Health Organization (WHO). the biopharmaceutical industry has invested significantly in new and improved vaccines. the WHO estimates that more than eight million people are walking today who would otherwise be paralyzed. In 2005.8 percent. they also save money. before widespread vaccination. and rotavirus diseases. measles caused an estimated 2. In 1980. such as dengue. we have unrealized opportunities to reach and save greater numbers of people. for example.S. meningitis. The WHO reports that the number has dropped by 71 percent. expensive and high-risk venture. has found that just three vaccines – HIB.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Disease Adv . In fact. thanks to vaccinations. we save $10.6 million deaths annually. pneumococcal and rotavirus – have the capacity to save $63 billion annually. pandemic influenza. cholera. The results have provided remarkable new ways to prevent cases of cervical cancer. Vaccines do not just save lives. We have the power to increase the availability of vaccinations to respond to a wider variety of infectious and non-infectious diseases. national governments and industry have led to major progress in addressing global immunization goals and reducing illness and death due to vaccine-preventable diseases. . saves almost $70 million in direct and indirect costs each year as a result of the pediatric vaccination program. vaccine development is a highly complex.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/294505-the-promise-of-vaccines-for-preventing-and-eradicatingdisease] Bak During the last three decades.
 
The collaborative efforts of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Director general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations. meanwhile.Exts #1 . pneumonia. The Gates Foundation. the U. As science expands and our world shrinks. Although vaccinations are among the most cost-effective health interventions developed. President and CEO of Biotechnology Industry Organization. The Hill. on pediatric vaccines. immunizations prevent between two and three million deaths each year. the research and development pipeline is robust. http://thehill. April 18 2013. The CDC estimates that for every dollar spent in the U. higher than most other health preventions.20. and tuberculosis. According to BIO Ventures for Global Health. and the incidence of polio has declined by 99. there are more than 200 vaccines in development targeting 23 neglected diseases that disproportionately affect the poorest countries. malaria. Despite that hurdle. lengthy.Vaccines check Constant improvements in vaccines solve disease extinction – past proves Greenwood and Pisani 4/18 [Jim. According to the WHO.

It is not a scientific fact. Astonishingly." (Personal correspondence with Forrest Mims. with its 2006 Distinguished Texas Scientist Scientist award. Do academic institutions like the Texas Academy of Science have a duty to provide Professor Pianka a forum to advance these ideas? And what might the consequences be of allowing him to do so? My answer to the first question is a resounding "no. To see if that's true. In short.000 persons would die a slow and agonizing death. Mims III has reported in a Special Feature in The Citizen Scientist ("Meeting Dr. Virulent diseases that kill quickly tend to burn themselves out. Homo sapiens are the despoilers. And while he stopped short of calling for terrorist action to bring this result about. However.tribe. including the implementation of martial law. Pianka's viewpoint runs contrary to the best science.No extinction Disease can’t cause extinction – Lethal diseases burnout quickly Carlson 2006 [Shawn. MacArthur Fellow. human beings have become better at securing resources and procreating than any other vertebrate on the planet. the halting of all air and ground traffic except for emergency vehicles and so on. our religions and every other aspect of what we are that helped us secure resources and propagate our species (the hammer and anvil of natural selection). that they are consistent with the best understanding of our world that science has established. Let me explain. as do our methods of creating new vaccines and treating illness of all kinds. many members of the Texas Academy of Science stood to their feet and applauded. The Tribe. Professor Pianka used the occasion to champion the notion. and such alarmist nonsense by some Ph. In fact. So it seems very strange to me for an evolutionist to identify one of evolution's most successful creations as somehow operating outside the natural order.) The data stand utterly against this idea.s sells lots of books. Doom. This viewpoint is every bit as anthropocentric as those who would place humans in a superior position. puts us in an inferior position in nature. apparently without sanction of the Academy." Only instead of lauding humanity's position in nature. Creator of LABRats. The flu pandemic of 1918 (the influenza virus is championed by Pianka) may have killed 50 million people. Moreover. free to ignore the evidence and believe that humanity is. Not only that. In his mind. Pianka. I am convinced that continuing to allow Professor Pianka unfettered access to impressionable students could one day lead to a loss of life that could make the Killing Fields of Southeast Asia look like a picnic ground. Indeed. is an evolutionist who believes that humanity is not part of the natural world. Our brains evolved on this planet subject to the same kinds of natural selection pressures as those that shaped peacock feathers. But this is a political opinion based on some vision he holds in his mind about the way the world ought to be. .000. there is no historical precedent that supports the notion that humanity could be ninety percent depopulated by a single disease. If extraterrestrials were asked to select nature's most successful vertebrate on the Earth they would certainly point to us. To do so is to deny this undeniable truth of evolution. our institutions and our technology are every bit as much a part of the natural world as elk mating rituals and beaver dams. the fact our evolution led us to a point whereby we can adapt our environment to our bodies. First. But the net death rate has never come close to the fractions that Pianka envisions. Pianka.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Disease Adv . saying that we are the "pinnacle of evolution" or "chosen by God. Natural selection creates less lethal varieties because an organism can't spread if it kills its host before it can propagate. Professor Pianka can believe that microbes will depopulate the earth if he wants. and he expects that microbes will "ultimately purge the Earth of the scourge of humanity. a desperate situation would be met by desperate measures." Furthermore. but that was only about 5 percent of those infected. By this measure. as he says. April 2 2006. Moreover. that depends on whether this ideas are truly academic—that is. Pianka is. In short. however. Pianka also argues that human beings are now so densely populated that they provide an idea vector for disease transmission." 31 March 2006) on a lecture he recently heard at a meeting of the Texas Academy of Science. he clearly implied that this was a right and proper future for our species and our planet. the "scourge" on the natural world. I see human beings as the products of the same natural forces that shaped all other life on earth. an eminent ecologist who studies desert ecologies. Founder and Executive Director for Society of Amateur Scientists. Evolution supports neither camp. rather than wait for our bodies to adapt to our environment. we have to figure out just what constitutes the "natural world"? As an evolutionist. The Academy chose to honor one Professor Eric R. every year sees medical advancements—screening techniques improve.000. of course. the corruptors of the natural order. I want to answer two questions here. the risk to humanity is steadily falling. http://tribes. Millions have died. as time goes on and our technology and awareness grows. Plagues have run rampant through human populations throughout time.Exts #2 .D. Now consider Pianka's arguments. we are evolution's most successful creation (amongst vertebrates). it is a glaring scientific fallacy. to stop contagion. that the Earth can only be saved if ninety percent of the human beings alive today are purged form the planet. He championed airborne Ebola as the most efficient virus to accomplish this. Pianka denigrates it. Huge fractions of some populations have been wiped out. PhD. by evolving the ability to adapt the world to fit us . The same can be said of all of our social structures. do Pianka's opinions deserve protection under the rubric of academic freedom? Well. Somehow.net/freedomguardians/thread/084f5b5c-379c-487aa99d-c9ca6d386951] Bak Forrest M. Pianka claims that the natural world would be "better off" if there weren't so many humans. after advocating for a future in which more than 5.

including the implementation of martial law. Huge fractions of some populations have been wiped out. a desperate situation would be met by desperate measures. is an evolutionist who believes that humanity is not part of the natural world. we have to figure out just what constitutes the "natural world"? As an evolutionist. it is a glaring scientific fallacy. Pianka also argues that human beings are now so densely populated that they provide an idea vector for disease transmission. Natural selection creates less lethal varieties because an organism can't spread if it kills its host before it can propagate. Plagues have run rampant through human populations throughout time.000. apparently without sanction of the Academy.tribe. Moreover. of course. Our brains evolved on this planet subject to the same kinds of natural selection pressures as those that shaped peacock feathers. Millions have died. Homo sapiens are the despoilers. Evolution supports neither camp." Furthermore. the "scourge" on the natural world. April 2 2006. with its 2006 Distinguished Texas Scientist Scientist award. The Academy chose to honor one Professor eminent ecologist who studies desert ecologies. but that was only about 5 percent of those infected. by evolving the ability to adapt the world to fit us . Professor Pianka can believe that microbes will depopulate the earth if he wants. . The flu pandemic of 1918 (the influenza virus is championed by Pianka) may have killed 50 million people. there is no historical precedent that supports the notion that humanity could be ninety percent depopulated by a single disease. our institutions and our technology are every bit as much a part of the natural world as elk mating rituals and beaver dams. Virulent diseases that kill quickly tend to burn themselves out. every year sees medical advancements—screening techniques improve." 31 March 2006) on a lecture he recently heard at a meeting of the Texas Academy of Science. In his mind. and he expects Eric R. the risk to humanity is steadily falling. In short.D. In short. Indeed. Do academic institutions like the Texas Academy of Science have a duty to provide Professor Pianka a forum to advance these ideas? And what might the consequences be of allowing him to do so? My answer to the first question is a resounding "no. the corruptors of the natural order. Pianka denigrates it. If extraterrestrials were asked to select nature's most successful vertebrate on the Earth they would certainly point to us. I see human beings as the products of the same natural forces that shaped all other life on earth. Pianka is. Founder and Executive Director for Society of Amateur Scientists. the halting of all air and ground traffic except for emergency vehicles and so on. It is not a scientific fact. an that microbes will "ultimately purge the Earth of the scourge of humanity. that depends on whether this ideas are truly academic —that is.000 persons would die a slow and agonizing death. that the Earth can only be saved if ninety percent of the human beings alive today are purged form the planet.net/freedomguardians/thread/084f5b5c-379c-487aa99d-c9ca6d386951] Bak Forrest M.Exts #3 . But the net death rate has never come close to the fractions that Pianka envisions. This viewpoint is every bit as anthropocentric as those who would place humans in a superior position. many members of the Texas Academy of Science stood to their feet and applauded. after advocating for a future in which more than 5. I am convinced that continuing to allow Professor Pianka unfettered access to impressionable students could one day lead to a loss of life that could make the Killing Fields of Southeast Asia look like a picnic ground. So it seems very strange to me for an evolutionist to identify one of evolution's most successful creations as somehow operating outside the natural order. free to ignore the evidence and believe that humanity is. He championed airborne Ebola as the most efficient virus to accomplish this. In fact. And while he stopped short of calling for terrorist action to bring this result about. that they are consistent with the best understanding of our world that science has established. he clearly implied that this was a right and proper future for our species and our planet.000. we are evolution's most successful creation (amongst vertebrates). To do so is to deny this undeniable truth of evolution. human beings have become better at securing resources and procreating than any other vertebrate on the planet. Astonishingly. Doom.) The data stand utterly against this idea.s sells lots of books. Pianka. I want to answer two questions here." Only instead of lauding humanity's position in nature. our religions and every other aspect of what we are that helped us secure resources and propagate our species (the hammer and anvil of natural selection). Pianka's viewpoint runs contrary to the best science. Mims III has reported in a Special Feature in The Citizen Scientist ("Meeting Dr. Somehow. puts us in an inferior position in nature. Pianka. Not only that. to stop contagion. First. http://tribes. Professor Pianka used the occasion to champion the notion. Creator of LABRats. MacArthur Fellow. Pianka claims that the natural world would be "better off" if there weren't so many humans. Now consider Pianka's arguments.Diseases inevitable Disease can’t cause extinction – Lethal diseases burnout quickly Carlson 2006 [Shawn. as he says. rather than wait for our bodies to adapt to our environment. saying that we are the "pinnacle of evolution" or "chosen by God. By this measure. PhD. as time goes on and our technology and awareness grows. However.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Disease Adv . and such alarmist nonsense by some Ph. Let me explain. as do our methods of creating new vaccines and treating illness of all kinds. But this is a political opinion based on some vision he holds in his mind about the way the world ought to be. however." (Personal correspondence with Forrest Mims. To see if that's true. Moreover. do Pianka's opinions deserve protection under the rubric of academic freedom? Well. The Tribe. The same can be said of all of our social structures. the fact our evolution led us to a point whereby we can adapt our environment to our bodies.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Biodiversity .

his group isolates the “helper fungus” for each one. Diuris micrantha (Swamp Donkey orchid) and Thelymitra mangeniae (Cinnamon Sun orchid). when species use different resources. University of Northern Iowa. in tim e our only companions might be cockroaches and rats.¶ We’ve all read about the imperatives of biodiversity.htm.000 species a year were being “lost”. Biology. plant species in the tundra can coexist by using different sources of nitrogen or use the same sources of nitrogen at different times of the growing season or at different soil depths (McKane et al. what has this to do with orchids in Western Australia? The Amazon scare started a “Save Everything!” movement.000 to rescue six types of orchids. with no shortcuts. Although previous theoretical and empirical studies have identified numerous processes that can maintain biodiversity. McGill University¶ 2010. University of Northern Iowa¶ 2005. Iowa State University¶ 2005. It is painstaking work.¶ “The scare about species extinction has been manufactured in complete contradiction to the scientific data. a botanist with a long reputation for saving endangered plants.com/scitable/knowledge/library/causes-and-consequences-of-biodiversity-declines-16132475 ) Theoretical and empirical studies have identified a vast number of natural processes that can potentially maintain biodiversity. or anything else. Postdoctoral Research Fellow. Over the past 500 years. biodiversity can be maintained by resource partitioning.” http://www.com/whysave. They back this up with tissue culture. not species.000 went to the Plant Science and Micropropagation Unit in Perth.”¶ Even if species were disappearing at a great clip in the Amazon. Under those conditions. Yet the ‘official’ forecast has been 40.nature.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Biodiversity Advantage Frontline No impact to biodiversity. These one species per year. cyrostorage of shoots. seemed a wonderful idea. So extinction does happen here. you have to know how many you started with.. Soon ecologists started using the same equation on Amazon rainforests and claimed something like 50. The $200. Chemistry Teaching. Diuris purdiei (Purdies Donkey orchid).their calculations are flawed Heath.¶ Species are being lost at a horrifying rate.orchidsaustralia. there is no reason to panic about saving orchids. biodiversity can be maintained by interspecific facilitation. 1999. http://www. B. telling me the company was spending $200. 2002). University of Minnesota. 99 (Jim Heath . or spatiotemporal partitioning. Biodiversity can be maintained by moderately intense disturbances that reduce dominance by species that would otherwise competitively exclude subordinate species. 1998). and it all costs.¶ In all of this there was a factual problem. I told him. Ph. Furthermore. The orchid project is led by Dr Kingsley Dixon. Causes and Consequences of Biodiversity Declines. nature is resilient Isbell 12 (Forest Isbell. It is truth that is becoming extinct. 2010-2011. about-to-expire flowers: Drakaea elastica (the Glossy-leafed Hammer orchid).¶ If you want an example of an extinct Australian plant. CM) Here was this sane-looking manager at Western Power. For example. However.¶ Why do it? I guessed there was some scientific incentive for saving these delicate.¶ We hear scary estimates about how many species are disappearing from our planet but estimates were based on the “species area curve” equation established by two researchers in the Florida Keys who counted the number of species in a specific area under study. “The highest proven observed rate of extinction until now is only those numbers may be nonsense. B.A. But if the Amazon numbers are nonsense.¶ To save orchids. which occurs when species positively influence one another by increasing the availability of limiting resources. Would I like to write something about it? Give me time to investigate. For instance. about half the known species in that Brazilian forest should have been lost. ecologists and conservationists . Yet according to the “species area curve”. if you go back 100 years. If the Amazon numbers were true (few doubted them). or by decreasing the limiting effects of natural enemies or physical stresses.000 species dying out per year in the century. Globally this is a “high” extinction rate. cyanea (the Blue Babe in the Cradle orchid). the last Scarlet Snake Bush died in 1995. selective grazing by bison can promote plant diversity in grasslands (Collins et al. There are 29 other known cases like that in Western Australia. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. Orchids Australia. But guess what? No one has found a single known species that could be declared extinct. But at least those extinctions are facts. I knew it didn’t make economic or ecological sense yet the money had been wisely spent.¶ A month later. Additionally. 2011-present.Australian Orchid Council Inc. grows thousands of plants and puts them in bushland sites. Caladenia huegelii (Grand Spider orchid). a million in all. Most of those plants probably were wiped out in the great agricultural expansion in the first part of the 20th century (up to about 1930).” declares Professor Julian Simon in his book The State of Humanity. to know how many species are lost. the cancercures that may flow in the sap of some rainforest shrub.S. “WHY SAVE ORCHIDS UNDER THREAT?. 2012. saving orchids. Postdoctoral Research Associate. Could that be it? A lot of the information about biodiversity reduces to two assertions:¶ Biodiversity is needed as a life-support system for the planet and as a carrier of priceless genetic information. when species use the same resources at different times and places. almost 90 per cent of the forest along the Atlantic coast of Brazil has been cleared. I wanted to find out if it made sense. Biodiversity is maintainable through natural processes. and DNA fingerprinting.D. Epiblema grandiflorum ssp.

Thus.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab rarely know which of these mechanisms actually maintains biodiversity at any particular time and place. . further investigation is needed to identify the natural processes that actually maintain biodiversity in intact ecosystems.

The planet somehow survived this lack of biodiversity. 87. Because these species were partially composed of sold material they left better geologic records.president of North Pacific Research. and the number of species and genera could be cataloged and counted. The little black line outside of the left edge of the graph is 10 million years. The earth has been a around for about 4 billion years. Thus for the first 500 million years bio diversity was zero. Biodiversity has never been higher than it is today.5 billion years. For the next 3 billion years. the first unexplainable fact is that the earth existed for 3. Something without basis in scientific fact is called a Myth. Lets examine biodiversity througout the history of the earth. Thus.Exts #1 .No impact Biodiversity loss does not impact the overall survivability of the environment scientifically proven Dodds 2000 [Donald .5% of its existence.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Biodiversity Adv . The number of genera on the planet is a indication of the biodiversity of the planet. The Myth of Biodiversity] Biodiversity is a corner stone of the environmental movement. Notice the left end of this graph. But there is no proof that biodiversity is important to the environment. . Life did not develop until about 500 million years later. the only life on the planet was microbial and not diverse. Somewhere around 500 million years ago life began to diversify and multiple celled species appeared. Figure 1 is a plot of the number of genera on the planet over the last 550 million years. without biodiversity.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Amazon Defo .

¶ The new study shows the severe dry spell in 2005 caused far wider damage than previously estimated and its impact persisted longer than expected until an even harsher drought in 2010.com/rs/2013/01/19/amazon-rainforest-showing-signs-ofdegradation-due-to-climate-change-nasa-warns/ Amazon rainforest showing signs of degradation due to climate change. said Ferreira.” said study co-author Yadvinder Malhi of Oxford University.¶ With little time for the trees to recover between what the authors describe as a “double whammy”. water availability had been shrinking steadily for more than 10 years. Even before 2005. often cited by prominent scientists and lawmakers. said the agency. add in some clever phrases like “lungs of the planet. Saturday. NASA warns. In Mato Grosso.¶ The government's figures are modest compared to those compiled by Imazon. environmentalists say. http://www.¶ The Amazon is experiencing a drought rate that is unprecedented in a century. http://www. there was a 12 percent jump in soy planting. Alt causes. 2013 1:21 EDT] The US space agency Nasa warned this week that the Amazon rainforest may be showing the first signs of large-scale degradation due to climate change. which made the trees more vulnerable.Brazilian paralysis Reuters 6/5 [Wed Jun 5.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Amazon Deforestation Advantage Frontline First. larger trees that are most vulnerable because they provide the shelter for other vegetation.¶ The data showed a widespread change in the canopy due to the dieback of branches. Throw in the 200 indigenous cultures in the forest. 2013 3:34pm EDT.Warming Watts 13 [http://www.¶ But the data so far supports the theory that high crop and commodity prices provoke destruction. And. the federal official.000 sites mostly proclaiming that “Amazon rainforest may become a desert” or “large portion of the rainforest will be lost” or you name it.com/index. localised dry spells added to the problem .php/about-us/) Do a search on “Global Warming and Amazon Rainforest” and enjoy over 200. Alt cause. the state with the most deforestation since August.worldclimatereport. and then claim “incalculable damages” all because of glob al warming. January 19. Between 2005 and 2010.¶ If borne out. a private research institute that also tracks satellite imagery. who critics say are more likely to favor development over environmental concerns.com/article/2013/06/05/us-brazil-deforestationidUSBRE9541D920130605] //duffee CONTINUED DESTRUCTION¶ The limbo enables destruction.reuters. The government says a fuller picture will follow the dry season and clarify what damage is man-made and what is the result of wildfires and other natural deterioration.¶ After years of declines.¶ “We had expected the forest canopy to bounce back after a year with a new flush of leaf growth. compared with the same nine-month period a year earlier. the analysis of 10 years of satellite microwave radar data revealed. Its figures suggest deforestation increased by as much as 88 percent during the nine-month period.rawstory.” argue that the rainforest is being destroyed faster than anyone expected.. The Guardian. The cure for . especially among the older. Amazon resilient – we have best studies and data World Climate Report 10 (nation’s leading publication in this realm.or Destroy It. preliminary government data suggests that deforestation increased by 15 percent between August 2012 and April 2013. And. 70m hectares of forest have been severely affected. but the damage appeared to persist right up to the subsequent drought in 2010. Deforestation is already creeping into areas where she has declassified parkland and changed policy to allow for hydroelectric dams and other infrastructure projects.¶ A team of scientists led by the agency found that an area twice the size of California continues to suffer from a mega-drought that began eight years ago. Jonathan Watts an award-winning journalist and the author of When a Billion Chinese Jump: How China Will Save the World . the trend would underscore fears that Rousseff has delegated too much enforcement to local authorities.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab everything and anything is surely hidden in the rainforest of the Amazon. rising by 4% on ave rage. gamble with the stability of climate and Actually the concern should not be about losing a few plants and animals. making it difficult to measure Butler 12 (Rhett Butler. and rising biomass —largely accords with findings from other long-term. Getting right to the bottom line. they report that “Forest biomass also increased over time. the rainforest all but disappears under their expected change in climate. but also on the effect of CO2 fertilization on photosynthesis. July 22. While in most areas environmental degradation has yet to reach a crisis level where entire systems are collapsing. comparative studies of forest dynamics across the Amazon Basin. and basal area observed are broadly consistent with the CO2 fertilization hypothesis. Lapola et al.” They state “One of the most frequent explanations for such findings is t hat forest productivity is rising. the team created a numerical “Potential Vegetation Model” that could be coupled with global climate models. growth. the drought peaked in intensity during July to September of that year with the hardest hit part of the Amazon occurring in the central and southwestern portions of Amazonia.000s of experiments suggest it is occurring and will occur in the future).”¶ In 2005. CO2 fertilization effect does not play any role in tropical ecosystems then there must be substantial biome shifts in the region. with the basal area of trees in our plots. By destroying the tropical forests. Consequences of deforestation. Mother Nature conducted an experiment for us by producing a substantial drought in the Amazon. The most immediate impact of deforestation occurs at the local level with the loss of ecological services effects of existing environmental impoverishment and to forecast some of the potential repercussions of forest loss. right? Wrong! Laurance and her team conducted five different surveys of the forest in a protected area 50 miles north of Manaus in the central Amazon.” If the CO2 fertilization does in fact occur (and 1. conclude “Biome projections for the end of the century in tropical South America are quite variable. we risk our own quality of life. http://rainforests. it is important to examine some of the Continuing loss of natural systems could make human activities increasingly vulnerable to ecological surprises in the future. local weather. used satellite-based measurements and much to their surprise. Today he serves as president and editor-in-chief of the web site. Without the CO2 fertilization effect. Saleska et al. Brazil.” They then add “The suite of changes we observed—accelerating tree growth and forest dynamism. creating much of the site's content. begin noting that “Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for the end of the century differ considerably dependi ng on climate scenario and also on how physiological processes are considered in vegetation models. Saleska et al.”¶ Next up is an article in a recent issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science by seven scientists from Panama. which in turn exacerbates the drought by interrupting the supply of water that would otherwise contribute to the recycled component of precipitation.htm) //You mankind stands to lose much more. . mongabay. which correlate strongly with tree biomass.” And. at least in response to short-term climatic anomalies. they found that forest canopy “greenness” over the drought-stricken areas increased at a highly significant rate. ¶ In their own words. and the loss of that ecosystem could spell the end of us all.” Furthermore “Our simulations show that if.com/0901.”¶ Our third recent article was written by three scientists from Brazil and Germany and it appeared in Global Biogeochemical Cycles. When they simulated climate change in the future and they included the CO2 fertilization effect. including the drought-induced collapse of the Amazon forest and conversion to savanna. including substitution of the Amazonian forest by savanna. begin reminding us that “Large-scale numerical models that simulate the interactions between changing global climate and terrestrial vegetation predict substantial carbon loss from tropical ecosystems. He is also the senior writer and photographer.” To investigate the future of the vegetation of the Amazon.mongabay. and it is worth noting that the first sentence in the “Conclusions” section in their abstract clearly states “The increasing forest dynamics. They conclude that “These observations suggest that intact Amazon forests may be more resilient than many ecosystem models assume. depending not only on the climate scenario. And if the climate does not change much and the CO2 fertilization effect is realized. 2012. the rainforest expands considerably. the vegetation was largely unchanged. in the future.com. “most of Amazonia would remain the same. Lapola et al. threaten the existence of other species.” They further explain that “Model-simulated forest collapse is a consequence not only of climate change–induced drought but also of amplification by the physiological response of the forest: Waterlimited vegetation responds promptly to initial drought by reducing transpiration (and photosynthesis). they made these measurements between 1981 and 2003. As seen in their figure below (Figure 1). the piece is entitled “Long-term variation in Amazon forest dynamics” and therefore must contain horrible news about the state of the rainforest. possibly in response to increasing CO2 fertilization or some other regional or global driver(s). Long timeframe—the impacts of deforestation take on a larger scale. such as increasing irradiance or rainfall variability.” We are partial to the increasing CO2 explanation.¶ The first paper appeared in Science magazine and was written by four scientists from the University of Arizona and Brazil’s U niversity of São Paulo.¶ Three recent papers appearing in leading scientific journals spell trouble for the alarmists’ claims about global warming and the precious and delicate Amazon rainforest. and undermine the valuable services provided by biological diversity. and California. This physiological feedback mechanism should be observable as short-term reductions in transpiration and photosynthesis in response to drought under current climates. the vegetation model appears to accurately replicate the current vegetation in the region.

These changes are more challenging to observe and forecast from local effects. affecting global climate and biodiversity. and pollination—functions that are particularly important to the world's poorest people. fisheries protection.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox provided by tropical rainforests and related ecosystems. nuts and fruit. and game. who rely on natural resources for their everyday survival. water filtration. Forest loss also reduces the availability of renewable resources like timber. medicinal plants. Sophs COPT Lab Such habitats afford humans valuable services such as erosion prevention. Over the longer term. since they take place over a longer time scale and can be difficult to measure. . deforestation of tropical rainforests can have a broader impact. flood control.

http://www.recent collapse proves CD 08 [Brazil Amazon Deforestation Soars." she said. as more and more farmers saw the Amazon as a source of cheap land.¶ In the last five months of 2007. contributing more than half the total area of forest stripped.org/archive/2008/01/24/6591. an institute that provides satellite imaging of the area.¶ "We've never before detected such a high deforestation rate at this time of year.¶ The monthly rate of deforestation saw a big rise from 243 sq km (94 sq miles) in August to 948 sq km (366 sq miles) in December. or 1.¶ "The economic reality of these states indicate that these activities impact. outlined during a news conference in Brasilia on Wednesday. was echoed by Environment Minister Marina Silva.#1 .8% and 16% of the total cleared respectively. Thursday." Mr Camara said.¶ Expensive soya¶ Ms Silva said rising prices of raw materials and commodities could be spurring the rate of forest clearing. non-profit newscenter and progressive community] //duffee The Brazilian government has announced a huge rise in the rate of Amazon deforestation.¶ The situation may also be worse than reported. January 24. said the rate of loss was unprecedented for the time of year.235 sq km (1.¶ Gilberto Camara. Independent. of INPE.¶ His concern.250 sq miles) were lost. 3. accounting for 17. Common Dreams.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Amazon Defo Adv Exts . without a shadow of a doubt. on the forest. 2008.commondreams.¶ . months after celebrating its success in achieving a reduction.¶ The states of Para and Rondonia were also badly affected. Brazil will never escape the paralysis.Brazil And.¶ Officials say rising commodity prices are encouraging farmers to clear more land to plant crops such as soya. ¶ The state of Mato Grosso was the worst affected. with the environment ministry saying the preliminary assessment of the amount of forest cleared could double as more detailed satellite images are analysed.786 sq km (700 sq miles).

According to Phillips et al. . and M. This year's drought gives me concern that this prediction may be correct. University of Michigan. to once every 20 years. which suggested that odds of extreme 2005-like droughts in the Amazon had increased from once every 40 .wunderground. Jeff. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. the third greatest in the global record. In late 2009. and the Amazon may begin acting to increase the rate of global warming. where he received his B.100 years. may have been partially caused by the The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions. degrees in Meteorology.S. Ph. so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. 2009. the future health of Earth's greatest rainforest may be greatly threatened. D in Air Pollution Meteorology) http://www.. Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector. "The exceptional growth in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2005. The occurrence of two extreme droughts in the past five years.2050.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Amazon Defo Adv Exts . However. The study projected that the extreme droughts would occur once every two Amazon drought effects documented here.#2 . in 2005.S. the drought reversed this process.com/blog/JeffMasters/amazon-rainforest-recovering-from-its-second-100year-drought-in-5-yea) ¶ We often hear about how important Arctic sea ice is for keeping Earth's climate cool. the World Wildlife Federation released a report. If the climate continues to warm as expected. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest takes about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. when no El Niño conditions were present and record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures occurred. 2010Dr. causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 16 . are suggestive of a link between global warming and extreme Amazon drought.22% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. before the 2010 drought. but the Amazon may be even more important.Warming Amazon and global warming are inextricably tied Masters 10 (December 03." years by 2025 .

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox

Sophs COPT Lab

Amazon Defo Adv Exts #3 - Amazon resilient
No deforestation- predictive evidence Masters 10
(December 03, 2010Dr. Jeff, University of Michigan, where he received his B.S. and M.S. degrees in Meteorology, Ph. D in Air Pollution Meteorology) http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/amazon-rainforest-recovering-from-its-second-100year-drought-in-5-yea)

There is some good news from the Amazon--deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have fallen 14% in the past year, and are at their lowest rate on record, according to mongabay.com, an environmental science and conservation news site that focuses on tropical forests. In 2009, Brazil passed a law committing to a 36 - 39% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases. Reducing deforestation by
80% by 2020 was the primary method envisioned to achieve the reduction. Brazil is now four years ahead of that schedule, and no longer is the world's biggest deforester--Indonesia now cuts down more acreage of forest each year than Brazil does.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox

Sophs COPT Lab

***Global Warming

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox

Sophs COPT Lab

Global Warming Advantage Frontline
First, global warming is not anthropogenic - temperature increases due to ocean cycles and sunspots, not CO2 Ferrara 2013 [Peter - director of entitlement and budget policy for the Heartland Institute and senior advisor for entitlement reform and budget policy @ National Tax Limitation Foundation, "To the horror of global warming alarmists, global cooling is here", FORBES, May 26, http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-ofglobal-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/] The increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century just reflects the end of the Little Ice Age. The global temperature trends since then have followed not rising CO2 trends but the ocean temperature cycles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 20 to 30 years, the much colder water near the bottom of the oceans cycles up to the top, where it has a slight cooling effect on global temperatures until the sun warms that water. That warmed water then contributes to slightly warmer global
temperatures, until the next churning cycle. Those ocean temperature cycles, and the continued recovery from the Little Ice Age, are primarily why global temperatures rose from 1915 until 1945, when CO2 emissions were much lower than in recent years. The change to a cold ocean temperature cycle, primarily the PDO, is the main reason that global temperatures declined from 1945 until the late 1970s, despite the soaring CO2 emissions during that time from the postwar industrialization spreading across the globe. The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that global temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then, if not actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. As The Economist magazine reported in March, “The

world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750.” Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes. At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11
year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA’s Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,

And, global warming not real - temperatures are declining and the Aff's models are flawed D’Aleo 6/8 (Joseph, Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, Chief Meteorologist at
Weather Services International Corporation and Senior Editor of “Dr. Dewpoint” for WSI’s popular Intellicast.com web site. expertise include climatology, natural factors involved in climate change, weather and climate prediction, and North Atlantic Oscillation, WUWT, 8/2/13, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/05/globalwarming-theory-has-failed-all-tests-so-alarmists-return-to-the-97-consensus-hoax/) bcho

(1) Warming not ‘global’. It is shown in satellite data to be northern hemisphere only (2) It is now not warming. Warming (global mean and northern hemisphere) stopped in the 1990s (3) Models suggest atmosphere should warm 20% faster than surface but surface warming was 33% faster during the time satellites and surface observations used. This suggests GHG theory wrong, and surface temperature contaminated. (4) Temperatures longer term have been modified to enhance warming trend and minimize cyclical appearance. Station dropout, missing data, change of local siting, urbanization, instrumentation contaminate the record, producing exaggerating warming. The GAO scolded NOAA for poor compliance with siting standards. (5) Those who create the temperature records have been shown in analysis and emails to take steps to eliminate inconvenient temperature trends like the Medieval Warm Period, the 1940s warm blip

And. This is related to the PDO and was predicted by those who look at natural factors. Nir Shaviv. "No need to panic about global warming". William Kininmonth. you are wrong . (17) Alarmists had indicated Greenland and arctic ice melt would accelerate. introduce 0. Geneva.computer models prove no rise in temperature Allegre. professor of chemistry. Weather balloons and satellite show no warming in this region the last 30 years. (10) Alarmists had predicted much lower frequency of the negative modes of the AO and NAO due to warming. the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s still dominates the records and longer term temperatures have declined. senator. Antonio Zichichi.15C of artificial cooling of global ocean temperatures near 1940. National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences. Edward David. Apollo 17 astronaut and former U. Also among the east coast high impact snowstorms tracked by NOAA (NESIS).former director of the Institute for the Study of Earth @ University of Paris. MIT. University of Cambridge.html] A candidate for public office in any contemporary democracy may have to consider what. Michael Kelly. Even in Texas at the center of the 2011 heat wave. The last 15 years has seen a decline in winter temperatures in all regions. president of the World Federation of Scientists. former director. et. to do about "global warming. And when stations with over 80 years of temperature data were considered. In places winter have been the coldest and longest in decades and even centuries. the longest stretch since the 1860s (12) Alarmists have predicted a significant increase in heat records but despite heat last two summers. al.. designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne. All time snow records were set in virtually all the major cities and northern hemisphere snow coverage in winter has increased with 4 of the top 5 years since 2007/08.S. professor of physics. professor of atmospheric sciences. 11 of the 46 have occurred since 2009. Schmitt. Roger Cohen.K. Rockefeller University. the number of heat records last July were not extraordinary relative to past hot summers. if anything. The arctic ice tracks with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the IARC shows the ice cover was similarly reduced in the 1950s when the Atlantic was last in a similar warm mode. Royal Dutch Meteorological Service. U. The warming was to be strongest in the tropics where the models were warming the atmosphere the most. Scott Armstrong. (9) Alarmists had predicted permanent El Nino but the last decade has featured 7 La Nina and just 3 El Nino years. cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. Hebrew University. former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences. J. professor of technology. http://online. has gone seven consecutive years without a landfalling major hurricane. fellow." Candidates should understand that the oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something draMatic be done to stop global warming is not . Princeton. 2012 [Claude . Jerusalem. Rodney Nichols. No warming has been shown in the top 300 meters in the tropical Pacific back to the 1950s. The upward trends since 1979 continues. no trends are seen (14) Alarmists indicated winter would become warmer and short. The U.wsj. Jan Breslow. (13) Extremes of rainfall and drought were predicted to increase but except during periods of strong El Nino and La Nina. former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WALL STREET JOURNAL. the 1930s to 1950s still greatly dominated the heat records. aerospace engineer. member. It too has stalled according to NOAA PMEL. Harrison H. In Greenland. Virginia Technical University. (6) Forecast models have failed with temperature trends below even the assumed zero emission control scenarios (7) Climate models all have a strong hot spot in the mid to high troposphere in the tropical regions. professor of astrophysics.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366. Henk Tennekes. James McGrath.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab and cooling since 1998. (8) Ocean heat content was forecast to increase and was said to be the canary in the coal mine. American Physical Society.there is a growing consensus of scientists that say warming is not happening . the long term (since 1895) trends in both temperature and precipitation are flat. head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism. William Happer. Burt Rutan. Richard Lindzen. (15) Alarmists had indicated snow would become increasingly rare in middle latitudes especially in the big cities where warming would be greatest. Steps have included removal of the urban heat island adjustment and as Wigley suggested in a climategate email. The trend has been the opposite with a record negative AO/NAO in 2009/10 (11) Alarmists predicted an increase in hurricane frequency and strength globally but the global activity had diminished after 2005 to a 30+ year low.S. (16) Alarmists had indicated a decline of Antarctic ice due to warming.

professor of technology. social systems. Scott Armstrong. Harrison H. And the number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year.. National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences.' In the APS it is OK to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves. treat the Aff's evidence with skepticism . Richard Lindzen. large numbers of scientists. president of the World Federation of Scientists. taxpayer-funded subsidies for businesses that understand how to work the political system. providing government funding for academic research and a reason for government bureaucracies to grow. WALL STREET JOURNAL. Rodney Nichols. Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now . MIT. Henk Tennekes. In September. Schmitt. Faced with this embarrassment.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections—suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause. designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne. "No need to panic about global warming". Lysenko and his team lived very well.former director of the Institute for the Study of Earth @ University of Paris. Hebrew University. former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences. University of Cambridge. In fact. former director. Speaking for many scientists and engineers who have looked carefully and independently at the science of climate. senator. many very prominent. Princeton. al.K." But the warming is only missing if one believes computer models where so-called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small effect of CO2. Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ivar Giaever. we have a message to any candidate for public office: There is no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to "decarbonize" the world's economy. aerospace engineer. security and human health are likely to occur. U. aggressive greenhouse-gas control policies are not justified economically. to enable anything unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2. 2012 [Claude . but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?" In spite of a multidecade international campaign to enforce the message that increasing amounts of the "pollutant" carbon dioxide will destroy civilization. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. professor of atmospheric sciences.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox true. The reason is a collection of stubborn scientific facts. American Physical Society. and a lure for big donations to charitable foundations promising to save the planet. William Happer. professor of astrophysics. William Kininmonth. Jan Breslow.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366. . et. Virginia Technical University. If no mitigating actions are taken. Even if one accepts the inflated climate forecasts of the IPCC. http://online. those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes. member. Rockefeller University. significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems. Antonio Zichichi. Burt Rutan. Nir Shaviv. the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the U. a supporter of President Obama in the last election. cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. professor of chemistry. Apollo 17 astronaut and former U. professor of physics. Geneva. This is known to the warming establishment. J. Jerusalem. The lack of warming for more than a decade—indeed. Royal Dutch Meteorological Service. publicly resigned from the American Physical Society (APS) with a letter that begins: "I did not renew [my membership] because I cannot live with the [APS policy] statement: 'The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. Alarmism also offers an excuse for governments to raise taxes. Giaever. fellow. as one can see from the 2009 "Climategate" email of climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. Michael Kelly. head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism. Edward David. Roger Cohen.html] Alarmism over climate is of great benefit to many.alarmist warming research yields more profits and grants for their authors Allegre. and they fiercely defended their dogma and the privileges it brought them.S. share the opinions of Dr. a Sophs COPT Lab large and growing number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that drastic actions on global warming are needed. former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.N.wsj. James McGrath. And.

co. Prof Sir Robert Watson – the deeply respected former chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – said he believed the world had now missed its chance to keep the average rise in global temperature to less than 2C – the level at which dangerous effects are thought inevitable. Geoffrey Lean pioneered the coverage of green issues long before they became fashionable and has won Scoop of the Year in the British Press Awards and the Martha Gelhorn Award for investigative journalism. is tough. especially when it’s about the future – and that’s especially true when it comes to the climate. long timeframe before any devastating impacts of warming Lean ’13 (Geoffrey. if determined worldwide action is taken. Prediction.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab And. Six weeks ago. comes at a time when many experts are beginning to despair that warming can be prevented from running out of control. as they say. for example. moreover. before the full consequences of today’s emissions of carbon dioxide become clear. . it might be held below this ominous threshold after all. But if the new research is right. naturally immensely variable.uk/earth/earthcomment/geoffrey-lean/) bcho The research. even centuries. It is. as we all know. http://www. whose complexity we only partially understand. And the effect of human intervention is subject to long timelags: it will be decades.telegraph.

My research leads me to believe that we will not be able to state conclusively that global warming is or is not occurring for another 30 to 70 years. climate has been shown to change rapidly in the past and will continue to do so in the future. they point to recent model projections that have shown that the earth will warm as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. No one advocates destruction of the environment.napsnet. To complete the analogy. That is also not true. If one takes a hard look at the science involved. in the global warming debate the prevailing attitude is that human induced global warming is already a fact of life and it is up to doubters to prove otherwise. We simply don’t understand the climate system well enough nor have the data to demonstrate that humanity is having a substantial impact on climate change. . http://www. we need to make sound decisions based on scientific facts. Regionally.no conclusive proof that warming is anthropogenic Lupo 2012 (Anthony. After all.pdf) (NAPSA)—One of the fundamental tenets of our justice system is one is innocent until proven guilty . During Earth’s long history there has been more and less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than we see today.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Warming Adv . Even the most ardent supporters of global warming will not argue this point. they claim that climate is stable and slow to change. Life on earth has been shown to thrive when planetary temperatures are warmer as opposed to colder. Michigan University. One should be careful when looking at model projections.Exts #1 . At the same time. there is no credible evidence to demonstrate that the climatological changes we’ve seen since the mid-1800’s are outside the bounds of natural variability inherent in the earth’s climate system. While that doesn’t apply to scientific discovery. Thus. PhD. carbon dioxide is not a pollutant as many claim.Not anthropogenic Jury still out. and we are accelerating climate change beyond natural variability. Third. Climate change is generally a regional phenomenon and not a global one. First. Most models predict anywhere from a 2 to 6 degree increase over the next century. they argue that humans are only partially responsible for the observed climate change. Life on earth will adapt as it has always done. these models are crude representations of the real atmosphere and are lacking many fundamental processes and interactions that are inherent in the real atmosphere. Second. Carbon dioxide is good for plant life and is a natural constituent of the atmosphere. I’ll add that to date. but even these are problematic given the myriad of problems associated with using models and interpreting their output. The 11 degrees scenario that is thrown around the media as if it were the mainstream prediction is an extreme scenario. any impartial jury should not come back with a “guilty” verdict convicting humanity of forcing recent climatological changes. Instead. their assertions appear to be groundless. and indeed we have an obligation to take care of our environment for future generations. Atmospheric Science department chair and professor.com/pdf_archive/34/50144.

not rising As Christopher Booker says in his review of 2008.html) Temperatures are falling. http://www.000 years ago than it is today. and has contributed to it since then. This winter looks set to be even worse. He has been a columnist for The Sunday Telegraph since 1990.000 years ago Evidence from all over the world indicates that the earth was hotter 1. made up of soot particles from Asia's dramatically increased burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. ie since satellite records began.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/4029837/Global-warming-Reasons-why-it-might-not-actuallyexist. which in the northern US states and Canada was dubbed the "winter from hell". Telegraph.telegraph. Antarctic sea-ice this year reached its highest level since satellite records began in 1979. Research shows that temperatures were higher in what is known as the Mediaeval Warming period than they were in the 1990s.000 sq km greater than this time last year. The earth's surface temperature is not at record levels According to Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis of surface air temperature measurements.Temps not increasing Surface temperatures are not increasing Booker ‘08 (Christopher. English journalist and author. Their data has also shown that the hottest decade of the 20th century was not the 1990s but the 1930s. November 2008 in the USA was only the 39th warmest since records began 113 years ago. the northern hemisphere saw its greatest snow cover since 1966.Exts #2 . Polar bear numbers are also at record levels. 8/2/13. Temperatures are still dropping Nasa satellite readings on global temperatures from the university of Alabama show that August was the fourth month this year when temperatures fell below their 30-year average. . Additionally. founders of the magazine Private Eye. The earth was hotter 1. last winter. Ice is not disappearing Arctic website Crysophere Today reported that Arctic ice volume was 500. temperatures have been dropping in a wholly unpredicted way over the past year.co.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Warming Adv . Himalayan glaciers A report by the UN Environment Program this year claimed that the cause of melting glaciers in the Himalayas was not global warming but the local warming effect of a vast "atmospheric brown cloud" over that region. the meteorological December 2007 to November 2008 was the coolest year since 2000.

aerospace engineer. William Happer.K. chemical fertilizers and agricultural management contributed to the great increase in agricultural yields of the past century. Nir Shaviv. professor of atmospheric sciences.CO2 Good . Michael Kelly. Schmitt. and a key component of the biosphere's life cycle. .rise in CO2 levels leads to rise in plant growth and greater agricultural yields Allegre. et. William Kininmonth. MIT. This is no surprise since plants and animals evolved when CO2 concentrations were about 10 times larger than they are today. http://online. fellow. American Physical Society. Harrison H. James McGrath. Virginia Technical University. Plants do so much better with more CO2 that greenhouse operators often increase the CO2 concentrations by factors of three or four to get better growth. Hebrew University. professor of astrophysics. senator. Scott Armstrong. former director. professor of physics. Jan Breslow. Princeton. Jerusalem. al. former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences. U. Edward David. Burt Rutan. Antonio Zichichi. former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Warming Exts .S. CO2 is a colorless and odorless gas.wsj.Agriculture CO2 is not a pollutant . WALL STREET JOURNAL. Rodney Nichols. member. cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. president of the World Federation of Scientists..html] The fact is that CO2 is not a pollutant. J. professor of chemistry. 2012 [Claude . Roger Cohen. exhaled at high concentrations by each of us. Geneva. Rockefeller University. but part of the increase almost certainly came from additional CO2 in the atmosphere. National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences. Royal Dutch Meteorological Service. head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism. University of Cambridge. Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.former director of the Institute for the Study of Earth @ University of Paris. professor of technology. Henk Tennekes. "No need to panic about global warming".com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366. designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne. Better plant varieties. Richard Lindzen.

NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab ***Agriculture .

also known as genetically modified seeds. most dramatically in the poorer areas of the world. alternate causality to food security . The researchers carried out a review of key scientific papers on food security and climate change since 1990. “Today. However. SD) Washington — Since the 1980s. are important to counter this threat. “the land footprint of agriculture is getting smaller.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Agriculture Advantage Frontline First. 8-2-13. large-scale conventional crop farming has increasingly produced higher yields while using less fertilizer and water. he said. Paarlberg said. One big factor affecting higher yields was the commercial introduction in 1996 of diseaseand insect-resistant seeds improved through biotechnology. and nutrition and social policy options are also critical.” Paarlberg said at a March 15 discussion about “The Culture War Over Food and Farming” at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. GPS-equipped tractors also allow farmers to insert fertilizer into the soil precisely where seeds have been planted. and fewer chemical pesticides. said: "The food price spike of 2008 highlights the increasing vulnerability of the global food system to shocks. what part is low on nitrogen and what part is not.climate change threatens to tip this balance. published today (2 August) in Science. such as more productive and climate-resilient crop varieties.” Paarlberg said. That prevents excessive applications of fertilizer and reduces toxic runoff into streams. reducing the amount of diesel fuel exhaust going into the air and conserving soil. April 5th. progress has slowed and world food supply and demand have been precariously balanced . the use of water for irrigation decreased 9 percent. says American political scientist Robert Paarlberg. from the University of Reading's Walker Institute for Climate System Research and lead author of the review. This should include . SD) A new study. The review highlighted improvements in agricultural technologies. Because tractors are applying fewer pesticides and fertilizer. It confirmed a robust and coherent global pattern of climate change impacts on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. “Modern Agricultural Production Continues to Increase Yields”. Biotechmodified maize. Paarlberg said conventional farming today is “dramatically different” from conventional farming in the 1960s. farm equipment is much more precise. since 2007. Ag production high now – mechanization McConnell ’12 (Kathryn. pesticide use went down 5 percent and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture dropped 3 percent. agricultural energy use is increasing at only one-sixth the rate of energy use in other areas of the economy. has called for a 'climate-smart food system' to prevent climate change from slowing progress in eradicating global hunger. for instance.usembassy. And that is good for the environment.climate change Wheeler ‘13 (Tim is Professor of Crop Science at the University of Reading and Deputy Chief Scientific Adviser for the UK Department for International Development.gov/st/english/article/2012/04/201204053331. protects against infections from the corn borer insect without requiring the use of chemical spreads. such as extreme weathe r and economic volatility. Professor Tim Wheeler. Second. Between 1990 and 2004 in the 34 countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The other more recent factor affecting conventional agriculture has been the use of global positioning systems (GPS) on farm machinery that “tell farmers exactly what part of the field needs to be watered and what part does not. With conventional agriculture based on science. Wider changes in food trade and stocks. excess nitrogen from overapplications of fertilizer decreased 17 percent. less mechanical tillage is needed. The benefits of biotech seeds and other modern farming techniques such as targeted irrigation are widespread. He added that increased yields are needed to feed the world’s growing population. is a staff writer at IIP Digital. A step change is needed in efforts to create a 'climate-smart food system' that can better withstand whatever climate throws at us. And because biotech crops resist insects and weeds. he said. 2012 http://iipdigital. The last few decades have witnessed a substantial decline in the number of hungry people worldwide. “World Food Security More Vulnerable than ever to Climate Change”.html#ixzz2akVShede.” Paarlberg said. but are unlikely to be sufficient on their own. Resistant soybeans have replaced multiple sprayings of toxic herbicides and pesticides.

Ross says he’s had to cut back on employee bonuses and delay new store plans. "In fact. and their greed was rationalized by “efficient markets hypothesis.global food reserves Harkness ’11 (Jim. recently said in Washington. Countries where these impacts are expected to be negative are also those where hunger is most prevalent now. Thirty years of neoliberal market fundamentalism has treated agriculture and food like other consumer products—as opposed to a necessity of life. Thus far. Asian countries are starting a rice reserve. This free-market system left food-importing countries without a lifeline when global prices spiked in 2007.drought AG Professional 8-1( Grocers. India and China) are exploring options for a collective reserve. supposedly impacted by the RFS. And. West African countries are considering the establishment of regional reserves. but we need to go further and ensure trade. In the following year the ranks of the world’s hungry swelled by another 100 million. U. Fortunately.com/news/Grocers-fast-food-shops-blame-ethanol-for-higher-food-prices217793201. and the BRIC countries (Brazil. Extreme weather. putting us one severe weather event away from a major corn shortage." Fox News reports the sentiment is mimicked by Wendy’s franchise owners.000 in revenues from each of his stores. Because competition limits how much of the costs can be transitioned to customers. and has served as an advisor to the World Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. It will be among the topics of discussion at the G-20 summit in France in May as a response to rising global hunger.A.dpuf. Private big grain traders never liked reserves. owner of four Wendy’s restaurants in southern California.html?ref=201) Some fast food companies say the increased demand for corn brought on by ethanol plants is the reason menu prices. Fast Food Shops Blame Ethanol for Higher Food Prices 8-1-13 http://www. as a B. Argentina and Australia have all experienced major weather events that have limited crop production and further tightened global grain supplies. farm bills have abandoned reserves and other tools to manage supply. since the RFS became law our cost for beef has increased by forty-seven percent. . “Food security and national security: Learning from China’s approach to managing its wheat supplies”.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab development of drought. International financial institutions often pressure countries around the world to sell off their reserves and reduce support for their own farmers.S. And major agricultural exporting countries like Russia. in Asian studies from the University of Wisconsin and a master's in development sociology from Cornell University and has written and spoken frequently on China and sustainable development. IATP. And. changes in rainfall patterns and more extreme weather under climate change are expected to affect food and fodder production. Russia. which pushed wholesale beef prices to record highs earlier this summer. and other foods like pork and edible oils. the idea of grain reserves is gaining traction again. change patterns of pest and diseases of crops and animals and impact on food supplies. namely beef. contributes to short term food price spikes and longer term climate change is likely to be an important factor in future price trends. no food collapse ." Warmer temperatures. Higher beef prices can’t be blamed solely on increased corn demand created by ethanol plants. Department of Agriculture reported the lowest stocks for corn in the last 15 years. Ron Ross. have taken $25. says an industry study found higher costs. such as floods. investment and development policies all have 'climate-smart' food as a central goal. Two consecutive years of drought forced cattle herds to shrink to a 60-year low.” which claimed that reserves were inefficient and distorted markets. the United States has resisted these proposals despite the lessons of the last food crisis. the United States and most other countries have abandoned this wise approach. http://www.org/documents/food-security-and-national-security-learning-fromchina%E2%80%99s-approach-to-managing-its-wheat-s#sthash. SD) Although China maintains vast reserves of grain.7krfIN0g. Earlier this month.iatp. But that could change. drought and heatwaves.agprofessional. pork and chicken.and heat-tolerant crops or new tillage techniques that reduce release of carbon from soils. "It's harder every day to offer great value because our costs are skyrocketing. who often spend a high proportion of their income on food. alternate causes to food prices . 2011. are higher.S." Lisa Ingram. the U. February th 28 . Volatile food prices are a particular concern to the poor. president of White Castle.

Ag production high now Ag production will continue to rise FAO ’13 (“OECD-FAO expect slower global agricultural production growth”. The trend in TFP. Although the use of some inputs like fertilizer and machinery increased. given their growing food demand. including for biofuels.pdf. such as more fertilizer and more machinery per acre of land. June 6th.70 times. meaning that total agricultural production in 2004 was 2. ERS has developed the total factor productivity (TFP) statistical series.1 percent between 2003 and 2012.S. growing resource constraints and increasing environmental pressures are the main factors behind the trend. USDA. is an important indicator of the longrun performance of the agricultural sector in the United States. and intermediate inputs like fertilizer. the amount of crop and animal output produced per unit of (aggregate) input. these increases were more than offset by reductions in cropland and especially the amount of labor employed in agriculture. is Chief of the Resource. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 expects prices to remain above historical averages over the medium term for both crop and livestock products due to a combination of slower production growth and stronger demand. agricultural productivity growth was strong in each decade. Over the same period. Environmental. according to a new report published by the OECD and FAO today. which is measured by TFP.Global agricultural production is expected to grow 1. potential for production expansion and comparative advantages in many global markets. http://www.6. which isolates the effect of changes in technology and related factors from those effects that result from changes in inputs on the growth of agricultural output (see box on p.Exts #1 . “Productivity Growth in US agriculture”. Beijing . feed and seed). agriculture in the late 20th century.5 percent a year on average over the coming decade. the index value reached 266 in 2004. as opposed to policy-driven as it was in the past.ers. which made inputs more effective or allowed inputs to be combined in new and better ways. In the long run. “Explaining Total Factor Productivity”). Limited expansion of agricultural land. therefore. SD) There are many reasons for the impressive improvements in U. As figure 1 shows. But yield was also increased through the development of new technology. Figure 1 shows changes in total output (an aggregation of crop and livestock commodities and related services). was one reason. But the report argues that farm commodity supply should keep pace with global demand. rising production costs. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. thus offering developing countries important investment opportunities and economic benefits. and TFP from 1948 to 2004. total inputs (an aggregation of land. The greater use of agricultural inputs. Overall. increased 2. growth in TFP is the primary source of new wealth creation. tech Fuglie ’07 (Keith .usda. and Science Policy Branch in the Resource and Rural Economics Division. September 2007.gov/media/201254/eb9_1_. compared with annual growth of 2. These changes are measured as indices with 1948 set equal to 100. aggregate input use in agriculture actually decreased slightly. SD) 6 June 2013. High production – fertilizer. labor. For output.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Agriculture Adv . .66 times higher than in 1948. allowing output to grow with little or no increase in inputs throughout the 1948-2004 period. capital. The report says agriculture has been turned into an increasingly market-driven sector.

Access. it is expected that the summer Asian monsoon rainfall may increase. How is the evidence base distributed across the dimensions of food security? We undertook a bibliographic analysis of peer-reviewed journal papers on food security and climate change since the publication of the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 1990 (21). In general. are less certain. 6145 pp. as a result of either natural causes or human activities.sciencemag. 341 no.full. changes to rainfall patterns. “Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security”. How will these regional changes in climate affect food security? Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climate variability and change.2% of the total publications on food security and climate change. . feed. of extreme weather. or fodder. this will have production implications for all bio-based products—whether food. 508-513. for example. Our analysis shows that a small peak of papers with climate change and food security in the title or abstract were published in the mid-1990s. feed. but agriculture was entirely absent. If it turns out. Climate change could have a range of direct and indirect effects on all four dimensions of food security.8° to 4. Climate change could transform the ability to produce certain products at regional and international levels.Alternate Causes to Food Security Agriculture is sensitive to climate change .Exts #2 .org/content/341/6145/508. These impacts will vary with the degree of warming and associated changes in rainfall patterns. however. That report was ground-breaking for the climate science that it reviewed.leads to a change in food availability Wheeler and Braun ’13 (Tim is Professor of Crop Science at the University of Reading and Deputy Chief Scientific Adviser for the UK Department for International Development. or fiber—and will impinge on food trade flows. potentially because of a higher level of absorption of CO2 by deep oceans (19). particularly over tropical land. such as shifts between anchovy and sardine regimes in the Pacific Ocean (40). and perhaps severity. and in arid regions (15). respectively.9. fuels. By the end of this century. Sea-level rises will increase the risk of flooding of agricultural land in coastal regions.9. Science Vol. climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Agriculture Adv . while parts of North and southern Africa could become drier (15). with implications for (farm) incomes and access to food (39). the global mean temperature could be 1. toward the poles. SD) Thus. heavily skewed toward food availability within 70% of the publications. followed by a lull then a sharp increase in papers published with these terms from 2008 onward. Warming will not be even across the globe and is likely to be greater over land compared with oceans. as well as from one location to another. and to alter the pattern and balance of trade of food and food products. to affect livestock health. utilization. Changes in rainfall patterns.0°C warmer than at the end of the previous century (15). Climate change caused by emissions of greenhouse gases is expected to directly influence crop production systems for food. August 2 2013. The distribution of the evidence across the four dimensions of food security is. 13. Recent weather records also show that land surface temperatures may be increasing more slowly than expected from climate models. and stability dimensions of food security are represented by only 11. partly because of the inability of the current models to represent the global hydrological cycle accurately (20). and 4. http://www. that the geography of biomass production shifts at a global scale (38). Similar changes have been observed in the geography and relative productivity of certain ocean species. and increased frequency.

Alt Causes to Food Prices Alt cause – weather conditions GBN 7-30( World Food Prices Fall But Remain High 7-30-13 Ghana Business News http://www. says the World Bank July 25.Exts #3 . the World Bank said uncertainty in the international market remains.com/2013/07/30/world-food-prices-fall-but-remain-high-world-bank/) World food prices have dropped in the third consecutive quarters. Looking ahead. the Russian Federation and China may affect the prospects of a rebound in the world wheat production.ghanabusinessnews. dwindling supplies. meanwhile. global food prices continued to fall between February and June 2013. Domestic prices. currency devaluations and public procurement policies. a trend observed since the r ecent all-time peak in August 2012. It said the current prices of wheat reflect expectations that world production will rebound this year from last year’s declines as rice prices continued to decrease moderately. The World Bank’s monitoring showed that higher production. “Recently unfavourable weather conditions in northern and central Europe. According to the Bank’s Food Price Watch. given Egypt is the world’s top wheat importer”.NDI 2013 Advantage Frontline Toolbox Sophs COPT Lab Agriculture Adv . generally followed seasonal trends but wide variations continued. 2013. the Bank attributed it to a combination of factors including bad weather. Where prices rose between February and June 2013. But it noted that food prices were only 12% below the August peak.” it said and “the current situation in Egypt may also impact international markets of wheat. – . declining imports and lower demand generally pushed export prices down although international markets continue to be tight for maize.