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Predictive Policing

Seattle Police Department

Predictive Policing
No standard definition Paradigm Similar to weather forecasting Not Minority Report

Types of Crime Analysis


Level of Aggregation
Large to all incidents by city, sector or crime type

High
Reports (i.e. dashboards) Broad-level focus Long-term trends

Examples

Larger group of incidents by area and/or crime type

Crime type or place-based focus Crime Hot-spots

Small group of incidents

Pattern focused

Crime Series Person or incident focused

One incident

Low (No)

Source: Exploring Crime Analysis (2005)

PredPol is
software technology that predicts the time and place of future crimes high level mathematics combined with experienced crime analysts and veteran police using their own knowledge and experience more than rear view mirror policing that simply maps past crime
www.predpol.com

the science
repeat victimization
B D 2 = B B + t 4

near-repeats

local search

offender behavior
www.predpol.com

mathematical model

deployment to officers in the field


lists or maps of predictions in 500 x 500 boxes distributed at start of shift or on-demand get in the box to disrupt crime during patrols
500

LAPD Deployment

Santa Cruz PD Deployment

making predictive policing practical

tactical ambiguity

tactical clarity

Get in the Box


problem-oriented environmental design community policing

500

micro place-based

intelligence-led

broken-windows

Disrupt Crime by
Detection Apprehension Prevention

Crime Detection
Best chance for being at the right place at the right time

Crime Apprehension
Even being near the right place, near the right time is beneficial
One study found that when the first police car arrived within 4 minutes of a Burglary in Progress call, an arrest was twice as likely as when they arrived at 6 minutes Arrest at the time of burglary is less time-consuming than detecting them after the offenders have left the crime scene

Crime Prevention
policing the risk = reducing the opportunity

High Opportunity/Low Incentive

Low Opportunity/High Incentive

Bored Teens

Drug Addicts Opportunity makes the thief

double the accuracy with PredPol

LAPD Foothill Deployment Nov 2011-April 2012

predictive policing in Santa Cruz, CA

-19%
Santa Cruz burglaries 1st half 2011 vs. 1st half 2012

how do we know it worked in L.A.?

-12%
L.A. Foothill Division

-12%
serious property crime all L.A. divisions
Nov 11 to May 12

+0.4%
Rest of L.A.

the impact of PredPol


2010-2011 -12.8%

2011-2012
start of LAPD rollout

Day
Standardized: October 15 2011 = October 16, 2010

Predicting Gun Violence with PredPol (Chicago)

Contributions to Prediction
Components to Gun Homicide Homicide Robbery Assault Statistical Model 5.5% 13.9% 23.6% Weapons Violation 32.1% Battery 24.8%

Prediction Accuracy
Previous Homicide Robbery Assualt Weapons Volation Battery

PredPol predicts gun violence


Chicago 2009-2011
percent homicides predicted PredPol

hotspotting (3 week) 2x random

PredPol
is NOT: a replacement for knowledge, skills & experience profiling of individuals probable cause new hardware or new hires IS: assigning probabilities of crime in space and time focal points for effective use of police resources use of existing crime data

SPD Predicted Offenses


Selected Offenses Future Offenses

Residential Burglary Commercial Burglary Vehicle Prowl Auto Theft Robbery Assualts

Gun Violence Homicide

SPD Tactical Measurement


Similar to Koper Curve deployment Time in box = 15 20 min every 1 to 2 hrs Concept Time in box measured by GPS Black, Red, Amber, and Green color codes for dosage or treatment of areas Green box indicates success

Strategic Plan
Info view

CAU Tactical Crime Analysis

Comprehensive Data Driven Approach to Crime Management

Directed Patrol

Incident Mapping

Crimeview

Data-Driven Objectives
Create a situational awareness of citywide crime activity, trends, and emerging issues (hard & soft crime) Identify effective crime fighting strategies, tactics, and resources to address those issues Ensure follow-up and assessment so that desired results are achieved and sustained, and successful strategies and tactics are replicated