I

EUROPEAN
ENERGY AND TRANSPORT

Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables

Directorate-General
for Energy and Transport

EUROPEAN
COMMISSION

EUROPEAN ENERGY
AND TRANSPORT
Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables

European
Commission

This publication was prepared by the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of National
Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), E3M-Lab, Greece, for the Directorate-General for Energy
and Transport and represents that organisation’s views on energy facts, figures and projections.
These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the Commission and should not be
relied upon as a statement of the Commission’s or the Directorate-General’s views.
Authors: Dr. L. Mantzos and Prof. P. Capros.

Legal Notice
The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in
this publication, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.

The manuscript was completed on 12 July 2006.

Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers
to your questions about the European Union
Freephone number (*):

00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11
(*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed.

A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet.
It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu).
Any comments and questions on this publication may be sent to: tren-projections@ec.europa.eu
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2006
ISBN 92-79-02652-6
Cover illustrations: European Communities, ExxonMobil, Wintershall, Uniport Bilbao
© European Communities, 2006
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Printed in Belgium
PRINTED ON WHITE CHLORINE-FREE BLEACHED PAPER

Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 5
SCENARIOS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLES............................................................. 15
1.1.

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 15

1.2.

THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE......................................................................................................... 16

1.2.1.

EC policies towards energy efficiency and modelling approach................................................. 16

1.2.2.

“Energy efficiency” scenario results for EU-25.......................................................................... 18

1.3.

1.2.2.1.

Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................18

1.2.2.2.

Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................19

1.2.2.3.

Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................22

1.2.2.4.

CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................25

THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE .......................................................................................................... 26

1.3.1.

EC policies promoting renewable energy forms and modelling approach.................................. 26

1.3.2.

“High renewables” scenario results for EU-25 .......................................................................... 29

1.3.2.1.

Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................29

1.3.2.2.

Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................32

1.3.2.3.

Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................33

1.3.2.4.

CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................36

1.3.3.
1.4.

“12% renewables share in 2010” scenario results for EU-25 .................................................... 37

THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE .............................................................. 39

1.4.1.

Modelling approach..................................................................................................................... 39

1.4.2.

“Combined high renewables and efficiency” scenario results for EU-25................................... 39

1.4.2.1.

Overview of main results .........................................................................................................................39

1.4.2.2.

Final energy demand ................................................................................................................................41

1.4.2.3.

Electricity and steam generation ..............................................................................................................43

1.4.2.4.

CO2 emissions and concluding remarks ...................................................................................................45

1.4.3.

“Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” scenario results for EU-25............ 46

GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 49
APPENDIX 1: “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE RESULTS..................................................................... 53
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 53
APPENDIX 2: “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE RESULTS........................................................................ 67
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 67
APPENDIX 3: “12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010” CASE RESULTS.............................................. 81
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 81
APPENDIX 4: “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE RESULTS ............. 95
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)............................................. 95
APPENDIX 5: “COMBINED 12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010 AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
RESULTS......................................................................................................................................................... 109
SUMMARY RESULTS BY GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (COMPARISON TO BASELINE)........................................... 109

3

List of figures
FIGURE 2-1: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE
IN MTOE) IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE
21
FIGURE 2-2: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM
BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE
23
FIGURE 2-3: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE
“ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE
25
FIGURE 3-1: CHANGES IN PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY RENEWABLE ENERGY FORM IN EU25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE
31
FIGURE 3-2: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE
IN MTOE) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE
33
FIGURE 3-3: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM
BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE
34
FIGURE 3-4: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE
“HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE
36
FIGURE 4-1: CHANGES IN PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY RENEWABLE ENERGY FORM IN EU25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MTOE) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND
EFFICIENCY” CASE
41
FIGURE 4-2: CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE
IN MTOE) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
42
FIGURE 4-3: CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY ENERGY FORM IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM
BASELINE IN TWH) IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
43
FIGURE 4-4: CHANGES IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN EU-25 (DIFF. FROM BASELINE IN MT CO2) IN THE
“COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
46

List of Tables
TABLE 2-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE
19
TABLE 2-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE
19
TABLE 2-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE
“ENERGY EFFICIENCY” CASE
20
TABLE 2-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “ENERGY EFFICIENCY”
CASE
24
TABLE 2-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “ENERGY
EFFICIENCY” CASE
25
TABLE 3-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE
30
TABLE 3-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES” CASE
31
TABLE 3-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH
RENEWABLES” CASE
32
TABLE 3-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “HIGH RENEWABLES”
CASE
35
TABLE 3-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “HIGH
RENEWABLES” CASE
36
TABLE 3-6: EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY NEEDS IN THE EU-25 ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE
“12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010” CASE
37
TABLE 4-1: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND
EFFICIENCY” CASE
40
TABLE 4-2: IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND
EFFICIENCY” CASE
41
TABLE 4-3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSION BY SECTOR IN EU-25 IN THE
“COMBINED HIGH RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
42
TABLE 4-4: INSTALLED CAPACITY BY PLANT TYPE IN EU-25 IN THE “COMBINED HIGH
RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
44
TABLE 4-5: FUEL INPUT IN THE EU-25 POWER GENERATION SECTOR IN THE “COMBINED HIGH
RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
45
TABLE 4-6: EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY NEEDS IN THE EU-25 ENERGY SYSTEM IN THE
“COMBINED 12% RENEWABLES SHARE IN 2010 AND EFFICIENCY” CASE
47

4

Executive Summary
Energy efficiency and renewables are central to EU and Member States’ energy and climate
policies as they contribute substantially towards reducing CO2 emissions, helping to meet EU’s
international obligations, either through curbing energy demand or through providing alternative
carbon free supplies. Similarly they improve energy security and can contribute to enhanced
competitiveness. Energy efficiency, as set out in the 2005 Green Paper on energy efficiency,1 has
become a cornerstone of EU energy policy contributing to all three main energy policy
objectives: competitiveness, energy security and environment protection. The importance of
energy efficiency and renewables policies is further emphasised in the recently published Green
Paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy.2
Therefore the Commission has undertaken a number of policies and measures towards improving
energy efficiency and increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources. The following
alternative scenarios simulate the possible outcomes of strengthened policies at both Community
and Member State levels to achieve better energy efficiency and a higher share of renewables.
These scenarios illustrate possible alternative pathways for the evolution of the EU energy
system in the horizon to 2030. For this purpose three different cases have been examined:

The “Energy efficiency” case takes into account all energy efficiency policies tabled by the
European Commission. The modelling assumes that through Community and national/local
action energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs so that more efficient
energy solution are chosen despite of higher initial costs overcoming also to a large extent
issues related to lack of information.

The “High renewables” case assumes that additional incentives are provided both to energy
consumers and energy producers so that the global indicative target of a 12% contribution
from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption in 2010 is reached.
Furthermore, strengthening of these incentives beyond 2010 is assumed towards achieving a
contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption close to 20% in
2020.

The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, which combines the assumptions of
the two cases mentioned above, explores their aggregate effect on the evolution of the EU-25
energy system and allows for an in depth analysis of their possible synergies as well as any
trade-offs.

These scenarios are distinct from the Baseline approach3, where the indicative targets, as set out
in various Directives (e.g. renewables electricity Directive 2001/77, Directive 2003/30 on
biofuels in transport) will not be necessarily met. The numerical values for these indicators are
outcomes of the modelling; they reflect implemented policies rather than targets. In the following
energy efficiency and renewables scenarios, the modelling starts from the assumption that agreed
policies will be vigorously implemented in the Member States and that certain new targets on the
overall share of renewables in 2020 will be broadly achieved. These scenarios explore the
consequences of such achievements for all sectors of the energy economy and address also the
issue of possible synergies and overlaps between policies on energy efficiency and on
renewables.

1

2

3

Green Paper of the European Commission on Energy Efficiency “Doing more with less”, COM (2005)
265 final of 10 June 2005.
Green Paper of the European Commission: “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and
Secure Energy”, COM (2006) 105 final of 08 March 2006.
European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 – update 2005 (2006).

5

In addition, two variants to the above cases have been examined, namely the “12% renewables
share in 2010” case, in which additional incentives towards promoting renewable energy forms
remain at 2010 levels up to 2030, and the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and
efficiency” case, which combines the assumptions of the “Energy efficiency” case with those of
the above mentioned renewables variant.

Energy efficiency case
Assumption
The Energy Efficiency Green Paper of 2005 stated that with today’s technology, it is possible to
save around 20% of our energy consumption by an increase in energy efficiency on a costeffective basis. Several Directives have been adopted that will help to exploit large parts of this
potential when fully implemented. The modelling for the “Energy efficiency” scenario assumes
the full implementation of these Directives, notably the Directive on building performance and
the Directive on end-use energy efficiency and energy services as well as energy efficiency
improvements stemming from the eco-design Directive. As a result, efficiency improvements are
more important in the household and services sector. In transport, capturing the existing high
efficiency potentials for aviation would be facilitated by the inclusion of air transport into the
European emission trading scheme. In addition cogeneration becomes much more important in
the “Energy efficiency” case compared with Baseline. In the modelling of the “Energy
efficiency” case, energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs taking advantage of
cost-effective and energy efficient solutions in their purchase and investment choices. Energy
efficiency labelling is instrumental in this respect. Other ongoing action at EU, national and local
level, such as RTD policies, information campaigns, regional and cohesion policy as well as
transport policy contribute to better energy efficiency.
The other assumptions, such as population, GDP and sectoral development as well as energy
import prices remain the same as in the Baseline. With the same GDP and sectoral production,
any improvements in energy intensity (the quotient of energy consumption and GDP) from the
modelling of the “Energy efficiency” case can be attributed to improved energy efficiency as
distinct from effects stemming from structural change of the economy.
Overall results
The energy efficiency policies and measures of the “Energy efficiency” case show substantial
results in terms of curbing energy demand. Total EU-25 energy consumption in the “Energy
efficiency” case comes virtually back to the 2000 level in 2020 (there is just a marginal increase
of 0.5 % over 20 years from 1653 Mtoe in 2000 to 1662 Mtoe in 2020). In 2030, total energy
consumption would be even as low as it had been in 1990 (there would be even a slight decrease
of 0.8% over 40 years to reach 1544 Mtoe in 2030). This is a reversal of the trend towards ever
increasing energy consumption seen for many decades. This development is the more remarkable
as GDP is expected to continue growing by 2% per year on average. The increase in economic
activity between 2000 and 2020 by a total 53% would be fuelled with essentially the same
amount of energy. Over the period 2000 to 2030, there would be even a decline of energy
consumption by 7% with GDP increasing by 79%.
Consequently, energy intensity would decrease by 2.1% pa between 2000 and 2020 (even 2.2%
pa between 2000 and 2030). These are 0.6 percentage points per year more than in the Baseline
(0.7 percentage points for the period to 2030), which is due to energy efficiency policies and
measures.
Demand for all energy forms declines compared to Baseline. The biggest fall is projected for
nuclear and solid fuels, reaching -35.0% and -34.2% respectively in 2030 compared to Baseline.
The main reason for this is the marked slowdown in electricity demand growth, due to greater
energy efficiency, and the higher exploitation of co-generation in the power generation sector.
Nuclear is exclusively used for electricity generation and solid fuels are a major input for power

6

stations. Nuclear is no option for CHP, which will be predominantly based on natural gas given
the size of cogeneration units. As a result, both nuclear and solid fuels lose market share in
primary energy needs.
On the contrary, other energy forms gain market shares in total energy consumption (compared
with Baseline) with the most significant increase in the long run occurring for oil, the share of
which reaches 36.9% in 2030 (+3.1 percentage points from Baseline levels in 2030), followed by
renewables (13.3% in 2030; +1.1 percentage points from Baseline levels) and natural gas (28.3%
in 2030; +1.0 percentage points from Baseline levels).
Gross energy consumption by fuel and energy and carbon intensities:
Energy Efficiency case versus Baseline
mtoe

Energy/carbon intensity 1990=100

2000

100

1800

renewables

1600

80
nuclear

1400
1200

60

1000

natural gas
oil

800

40

solids

600
20

400

carbon
intensity
energy
intensity

200
0

0
1990

2000

2010

Baseline

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Energy efficiency case

Better energy efficiency makes a small contribution towards increasing the share of renewables
in the medium and long term (about one percentage point more) due to reduced overall energy
demand. On the other hand, through limiting the growth of electricity demand, energy efficiency
curtails somewhat the potential for electricity generation from renewables (notably wind).
As a result of these changes in the fuel mix, carbon intensity (CO2 emissions divided by energy
consumption) develops slightly more favorable than in the Baseline. On the other hand, there is a
substantial improvement in energy intensity compared with Baseline and therefore CO2
emissions are much lower in the “Energy efficiency” case (3% below Baseline in 2010 and even
20% lower in 2030). Compared with the Kyoto base-year 1990, CO2 emissions come back to the
1990 level in 2010 and decrease thereafter to reach minus 16% in 2030, after having reached
minus 10% in 2020.
Following demand reduction through energy efficiency measures, indigenous energy production
decreases - however, at a somewhat slower pace than gross energy consumption up to 2020.
Consequently the import dependency of the EU drops slightly below baseline levels (e.g. 63.1%
in 2020 instead of 63.8% in the Baseline). Given that energy efficiency also reduces strongly
electricity demand produced from nuclear and (indigenous) solid fuels, especially in the long
term, there is a slight increase in import dependency in 2030 (65.5% in the efficiency case
compared with 64.9% in the Baseline).
Final energy demand develops at a significantly slower pace compared to the Baseline scenario
under the “Energy efficiency” case assumptions (-2.6% in 2010, -11.5% in 2020 and -15.7% in
2030). The biggest decline occurs in the tertiary sector, where energy consumption is 31.4%
lower than in the Baseline in 2030. Energy needs in the residential and transport sectors are also
projected to decrease significantly from Baseline levels (-26.0% and -10.9% in 2030

7

respectively) whereas the impact of the policies considered in this case is rather limited in
industry (-0.6% in 2010, -2.4% in 2030).
The availability of more efficient new vehicle technologies, combined with greater incentives to
consumers that encourage better understanding of technology costs, are the key drivers for the
decline in transport sector energy requirements (-2.1% in 2010, -10.9% in 2030). Energy
efficiency improves further compared with Baseline for all modes, especially for aviation and
trucks. By comparison efficiency improvements over Baseline are somewhat smaller for
passenger cars as the CO2 agreement with the European car industry, which is essentially a fuel
efficiency agreement, is already included in the Baseline.
The focus of efficiency policies towards improvements in buildings’ thermal integrity and
demand side management, but also the labelling of electric appliances, is reflected in the
projected changes in tertiary and household sector demand. The structure of energy demand in
services and households is quite similar because the bulk of energy consumption takes place in
buildings (like office blocks, hospitals, schools, dwellings etc) and for the same purposes,
namely heating, cooling, cooking, lighting and appliances. The decline is significantly higher for
consumption by electric appliances (-50.4% in 2030 for the tertiary sector; -33.0% in
households) reflecting the large scope for action towards more rational use of energy and the
benefits of appliance labelling. As a result electricity demand in both sectors exhibits the largest
decline among all energy forms over the projection period.
Besides considerably more cogeneration, the supply side shifts towards more efficient
technologies in the long run driven by faster technological progress especially in power
generation, which leads to improvements in terms of new equipment efficiency.
Overall, the “Energy efficiency” case gives rise to a much more favourable development
compared to the Baseline scenario. Primary energy needs decline significantly (-18.6%
compared to the Baseline in 2030), so that in 2030 total energy consumption would be as low as
it had been in 1990. In 2020, total energy needs would have come back to the level of 2000.
However, the import dependency of the EU-25 energy system exhibits a slight worsening from
Baseline levels (65.5% in 2030 compared to 64.9% in the Baseline) as the significant decline of
electricity requirements in the long term limits the need for new investment in nuclear power
plants and the come back of solids in power generation. On the other hand changes in the fuel
mix allow for a further improvement of carbon intensity in the EU-25 energy system, which in
combination to the decreasing energy requirements brings about a much more favourable
development in terms of CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions in 2010 come back to their 1990 level
instead of increasing by 3% in the Baseline. In 2020, emissions are 10% below the 1990 level
and in 2030 CO2 emissions are projected to reach minus 16 % below the 1990 level – a
substantial improvement compared to an increase of CO2 emissions by +5% from 1990 to 2030
in the Baseline scenario.

“High renewables” case
Assumptions
The EU has been supporting renewable energy sources for some time notably through Directives
on electricity from renewables and on biofuels. The Communication on “The share of renewable
energy in the EU” of 2004 and the Biomass Action Plan of 2005 have underlined the key role of
renewables in ensuring sustainable energy supplies for the Community, reinforcing social and
economic cohesion, developing European industry and contributing to job creation. The
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the process of integrating the environment into energy
policy will both underpin a greater role of renewables. The “High renewables” scenario includes
not only the implementation of the renewables electricity and the biofuels Directives, but it also
assumes a significant biomass/waste contribution especially in industry and considerable
penetration of solar water heating in the household and tertiary sectors.

8

The long-standing objective to reach a renewables share of 12% in gross energy consumption
may be complemented by a target for 2015 and/or 2020. The conclusions of the European
Council of March 2006 mention a share of renewables of 15% in 2015, and a share of 20% for
2020 is under discussion. The “High renewables” scenario has an orientation to come close to
these shares under discussion, starting from the achievement of a renewables share of 12% in
2010. Apart from the assumptions on much stronger support for renewables, all other
assumptions (e.g. GDP, energy import prices, etc) remain unchanged from Baseline.
Overall results
Strong action on renewables in the “High renewables” case lead to significant changes in the
future evolution of the fuel mix while overall primary energy demand remains essentially
unchanged from Baseline levels in 2010, exhibiting a limited decline thereafter of -1.8% below
the Baseline in 2030. In this scenario energy efficiency follows Baseline trends, thus the limited
further energy intensity gains occurring in the long run reflect mainly the higher exploitation of
wind and other intermittent renewables (with an efficiency of 100% according to Eurostat
conventions4). However, there are significant changes in the fuel mix with demand for
renewables growing at rates well above those in the Baseline scenario (5.2% pa in 2000-2030
compared to 3.0% pa in the Baseline), a growth that occurs to the detriment of all other energy
forms.
In 2010, renewables account for 11.6% of primary energy needs (a rise of +3.6 percentage points
from Baseline levels). This increase on top of Baseline occurs mainly to the detriment of solid
fuels (accounting for 14.2% of primary energy needs, -1.6 percentage points from Baseline
levels) as well as oil and gas (34.9% and 24.5%, respectively, both declining by -1.0 percentage
point compared to the Baseline). Nuclear remains unchanged as no investment decisions on new
nuclear would be affected in the short term.
Shares in gross energy consumption in the “High renewables” case in EU-25 (in %):
Change from Baseline
2000

2010

2020

2030

Solids

18.5

14.2

10.5

Oil

38.4

35.9

Natural gas

22.8

Nuclear
Renewables

2010

2020

2030

10.7

-1.6

-3.3

-4.7

33.8

31.4

-1.0

-1.7

-2.4

24.5

25.8

26.2

-1.0

-2.3

-1.1

14.4

13.7

10.5

7.5

0.0

-1.6

-3.6

5.8

11.6

19.3

24.0

+3.6

+8.9

+11.8

In 2020, the use of renewables in the EU-25 energy system increases by 84% from Baseline
levels with their share reaching 19.3% compared to 10.4% in the Baseline scenario. An even
higher renewables share can be achieved with the same intensity of renewables promotion if
renewables policies are combined with energy efficiency policies (this case is developed further
below). Demand for solid fuels exhibits again the strongest decline from Baseline levels (24.5%) followed by nuclear (-14.1%), natural gas (-8.9%) and oil (-5.8%). In 2020 solid fuels
account for 10.5% of primary energy needs, oil for 33.8%, gas for 25.8% and nuclear for 10.5%
(all loosing significant market shares to renewables in comparison with the Baseline scenario).
The further strengthening of promoting policies for renewables up to 2030 leads to an increase of
the renewables share reaching 24.0% (+11.8 percentage point from Baseline). This further

4

According to Eurostat conventions electricity generation from renewables such as wind, solar and hydro has
an efficiency of 100%.

9

growth for renewables strongly affects nuclear energy and solid fuels (-33.5% and -31.8%
respectively compared to Baseline). The effects on liquid fuels (-8.6%) and natural gas (-5.8%)
are less pronounced. The share of nuclear falls to 7.5%. Nevertheless, the combined share of
carbon free and indigenous fuels (renewables plus nuclear) reaches almost one third in 2030
compared with less than a quarter under Baseline conditions.
The higher exploitation of biomass and waste is the key driver for the substantial increase of the
renewables share accounting for about 70% of incremental renewables demand. Biomass/waste
deployment in 2030 is twice as high as in the Baseline. Besides the higher utilisation of biomass
and waste in the power generation sector, the significant increase of the biofuels share in
gasoline and diesel used in the transport sector contributes to this increase. A substantial increase
in relative terms is also projected for the long-term contribution of solar energy and geothermal
heat. The high penetration of wind energy, already achieved in the Baseline, is further enhanced,
in the “High renewables” case with the increase for wind energy reaching 45.5% in 2030 from
Baseline levels (63.8% in 2020).
The share of renewables (including waste) in electricity generation increases to 23.5% in 2010,
39.4% in 2020 and 45.6% in 2030 (5.4, 16.0 and 18.0 percentage points above Baseline levels,
respectively). Biomass and waste account for 40.3% of renewable electricity in 2030, wind
energy for 33.0% and hydro for 20.9% (from 18.3%, 33.1% and 46.0% respectively in 2010).
The biofuels share in petrol and diesel consumption rises to 6.4% in 2010, to 14.2% in 2020 and
to 19.1% in 2030.
These changes in the fuel mix entail significant improvements in carbon intensity (-5.4% from
Baseline levels in 2010 and -13.7% in 2030). Along with some improvements in energy
intensity, mainly due to the deployment of highly efficient renewables that replace less efficient
fossil and nuclear technologies, this leads to pronounced reductions in CO2 emissions below
Baseline levels (up to -15.2% in 2030). CO2 emissions remain below the 1990 level throughout
the projections period reaching minus 3% in 2010, minus 9% in 2020 and minus 11% in 2030.
Following much higher renewables deployment and despite a certain decline in nuclear and
fossil fuel production, indigenous energy supplies are higher in the “High renewables” case than
in the Baseline. Consequently, import dependency falls below Baseline level so that the increase
of import dependency is considerably moderated with strong renewables promotion. Import
dependency in 2010 is limited to 52% - close to the current level – and increases only somewhat
to reach 58% in both 2020 and 2030 instead of 64% and 65% in 2020 and 2030 respectively in
the Baseline.

Combined high renewables and efficiency case
A higher renewables share is also supported by measures that reduce energy consumption
through better energy efficiency. In the “combined high renewables and efficiency” case, the
assumptions of both cases are introduced simultaneously in the modelling in order to explore the
synergies and possible overlaps between both main policy areas. All other assumptions remain
the same as in the Baseline.
Primary energy needs in 2010 in the combined case are projected 3% below Baseline levels. This
decrease is even more pronounced in the long run (-20% in 2030). Beyond 2010, total energy
consumption declines not only relative to Baseline but also in absolute terms (-0.7% pa in 20102030). In 2030, total energy requirements would be 2.5% lower than they had been in 1990
exceeding even slightly the decrease in the pure “Energy efficiency” case reflecting the higher
transformation efficiency of e.g. wind in power generation.

10

Gross energy consumption by fuel and energy and carbon intensities:
Combined energy efficiency and high renewables case versus Baseline
mtoe

Energy/carbon intensity 1990=100

2000

100

1800

renewables

1600

80
nuclear

1400
1200

60

1000

natural gas
oil

40

800

solids

600
20

400

carbon
intensity
energy
intensity

200
0

0
1990

2000

2010

Baseline

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Combined efficiency and high renewables case

Lower energy requirements combined with renewables policies allow for a growth of the
renewables share in primary energy needs at rates above those projected in the “High
renewables” case, despite the less pronounced growth of renewables consumption in absolute
terms (reaching 394 Mtoe in 2030 compared to 446 Mtoe in the “High renewables” case). Thus,
in 2010 renewables are projected to account for 11.9% of primary energy needs and this share
rises further to 19.9% in 2020 and reaches 25.9% in 2030 (compared with 11.6%, 19.3% and
24%, respectively, in the “High renewables” case). Demand for all other energy forms is
projected to decline from Baseline levels with the impacts in the short run being more
pronounced for solids and natural gas (-14.2% and -9.6% respectively from Baseline levels in
2010). In the long run, nuclear (-65.1% from Baseline levels in 2030) and solids (-57.5%)
decline most following strong combined policies on energy efficiency and renewables. The
substantial decline in nuclear, following the substantial reduction below Baseline in electricity
demand due to better energy efficiency, limits the share of carbon free energy forms in primary
energy needs to 30.8% in 2030, whereas in the “High renewables” case the share of carbon free
energy forms increased to 31.5% in 2030.
In power generation, renewables reach a particular high share as a result of the combined effect
of strong policies on renewables and on energy efficiency, which reduce electricity production
by 26% below Baseline in 2030; the level of power generation in 2030 is only slightly higher
than that of today. Consequently, the renewables share (including waste) in power generation in
the combined case exceeds that in the pure high renewables scenario. The renewables
contribution to power generation increases to 24.8% in 2020 and reaches 43.1% in 2020. In
2030, renewables would account for even 55.7% of electricity generation, compared with 46% in
the pure renewables case. Most of this would come from biomass-waste (22.4% share in 2030),
while the wind share amounts to 18.5%, the hydro share to 12.3% and solar, tidal, geothermal
account for 2.5%. Fossil fuels and nuclear would lose market shares. The nuclear share would
further fall to 8.9% in 2030, while gas accounts for 18.9%, solid fuels for 12.7 and oil for 3.9%.

11

Electricity generation in the Combined high renewables and efficiency
case compared with Baseline (in TWh)
4400
oil

4000
3600

gas

3200
solids
2800
nuclear

2400
2000

other RES

1600
wind
1200
biomass-waste

800
400

hydro

0
Baseline

2010

Combined
case

Baseline

combined
case

2030

Better energy efficiency in the combined case leads also to slightly higher biofuels penetration in
transport compared with the isolated high renewables case. The share of biofuels in petrol and
diesel reaches 6.4% in 2010, 15.2% in 2020 and 20.9% in 2030.
Carbon intensity of the EU-25 energy system improves by up to 16% from Baseline levels in
2030 as a result of the changes in the fuel mix. In combination with the much lower energy
requirements thanks to better energy efficiency, this leads to a strong decline of CO2 emissions,
which are projected to decrease by 9% from Baseline levels in 2010 and by even 32.5% in 2030.
Compared to the 1990 level, CO2 emissions fall by 7% in 2010, by 21% in 2020 and by 29% in
2030. Pursuing simultaneously strong policies towards energy efficiency and renewables allows
for a much more favourable development of CO2 emissions, especially in the long run.
In the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, import dependency is also projected to
decrease markedly from Baseline levels. The EU dependency on imports stays at current levels
up to 2010 (reaching 51%) with the further increase limited to 58% in 2020 and 59% in 2030
instead of rising to 65% under Baseline developments.
Overall, the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case reveals a much more favourable
EU-25 energy system outlook with energy requirements declining by 2030 to levels slightly
below those observed in 1990. The share of renewables in gross inland consumption reaches
15% in 2015, 20% in 2020 and 26% in 2030. CO2 emissions remain well below the 1990 level
over the whole projection period (-6.7% in 2010, -21.4% in 2020 and -29.3% in 2030)
contributing substantially to Kyoto objectives for 2010 and possible more ambitious ones for
later periods. Furthermore, in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case import
dependency improves from Baseline levels reaching 59.2% in 2030 (5.7 percentage points below
Baseline levels).

Variants
The modelling includes also a variant, in which a 12% renewables share will be reached in 2010.
In this variant, the level of support for reaching this renewables outcome is kept constant for the
rest of the projection period and the effects of maintaining this level of supporting policies are
investigated. Some salient results are: the further increase of the renewables share to reach 20%
in 2030, the reduction of CO2 emissions to minus 7% below the 1990 level in 2030 and the more
limited increase of import dependency to 60% in 2030, which are 5 percentage points less than in
the Baseline.

12

This “12% renewables in 2010” case was also combined with the “Energy efficiency” case
producing even more pronounced effects in terms of increasing renewables shares and in
particular declining CO2 emissions, which fall 26% below the 1990 level thanks to better energy
efficiency combined with promotional policies on renewables.

13

14

Scenarios on Energy Efficiency and Renewables
1.1.

Introduction
Energy efficiency and renewables have become mainstream policy lines over the last few
years following the EC Green Paper of 2000 on energy security.5 The Green Paper
recognised that - to enhance energy security and contribute to sustainable development in
the EU - there exists wider scope for action on the demand side, i.e. energy efficiency,
compared with supply side action. Energy efficiency, as set out in the 2005 Green Paper
on energy efficiency,6 has become a cornerstone of EU energy policy contributing to all
three main energy policy objectives: competitiveness, energy security and environment
protection. The importance of energy efficiency and renewables policies is further
emphasised in the recently published EC Green Paper on a European strategy for
sustainable, competitive and secure energy.7 Enhanced penetration of renewables will
contribute both to better energy security and reduced CO2 emissions and therefore help to
meet the EU’s international obligations.
In that direction the European Commission has adopted a number of policies (expressed
through directives and action plans) towards improving energy efficiency in the EU
energy system and increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in satisfying
primary energy needs. In the Baseline scenario8 the approach retained was that the
indicative targets, as set out in various EC Directives (renewables electricity Directive
2001/77, Directive 2003/30 on renewable energy in transport and any additional followup Directives etc.) will not be necessarily met. The numerical values for these indicators
are outcomes of the modelling; they reflect implemented policies rather than targets.
The following alternative scenarios simulate the possible outcome of strengthened
policies at both Community and Member State levels to achieve greater energy efficiency
and a higher share of renewables. These scenarios illustrate possible alternative pathways
for the evolution of the EU energy system in the horizon to 2030. For this purpose three
different cases have been examined:

The “Energy efficiency” case takes into account all energy efficiency policies
tabled by the European Commission. The modelling assumes that through
Community and national/local action energy consumers improve their perception
of energy costs so that more efficient energy solution are chosen despite of
higher initial costs overcoming also to a large extent issues related to lack of
information.

The “High renewables” case assumes that additional incentives are provided both
to energy consumers and energy producers so that the global indicative target of
a 12% contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption

5

Green Paper of the European Commission: “Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply”,
COM (2000) 769 final of 29 November 2000.

6

Green Paper of the European Commission on Energy Efficiency “Doring more with less”, COM (2005) 265
final of 10 June 2005.

7

Green Paper of the European Commission: “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure
Energy”, COM (2006) 105 final of 08 March 2006.

8

European energy and transport: Trends to 2030 –update 2005 (2006).

15

by 2010, referred to in the renewables electricity Directive,9 is reached.
Furthermore, strengthening of these incentives beyond 2010 is assumed towards
achieving a contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy
consumption close to 20% by 2020.

The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, which combines the
assumptions of the two cases discussed above, explores their aggregate effect on
the evolution of the EU-25 energy system and allows for an in depth analysis of
their possible synergies as well as any trade-offs.

In addition, two variants to the above cases have been examined, namely the “12%
renewables share in 2010” case, in which additional incentives towards promoting
renewable energy forms remain at 2010 levels in the horizon to 2030, and the “Combined
12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case which combines the assumptions of
the “Energy efficiency” case with those of the above mentioned renewables variant.
In chapters 2 to 4, the impacts of the “Energy efficiency”, the “High renewables” and the
“Combined high renewables and efficiency” cases on the future evolution of the EU-25
energy system are discussed in detail. A briefer discussion of the impacts of the “12%
renewables share in 2010” and the “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and
efficiency” cases is also provided in chapter 3 and 4 respectively.

1.2.

The “Energy efficiency” case
1.2.1. EC policies towards energy efficiency and modelling approach

The Energy Efficiency Green Paper of 2005 stated that with today’s technology, it is
possible to save around 20% of our energy consumption by an increase in energy
efficiency on a cost-effective basis. Energy efficiency brings significant savings on
household energy bills and thus has a direct impact on every-day lives of all European
citizens.
Several Directives have been adopted that will help to exploit large parts of this potential
when fully implemented. These Directives include the buildings Directive 10 of 2002, the
CHP Directive 11 of 2004, the eco-design Directive 12 of 2005 and the Directive on enduse energy efficiency and energy services 13 of 2006, and various Directives on energy
labelling. The effects of the implementation of these Directives in the Member States will
take some time to come to the fore, but it is expected that full implementation will
provide important results taking into account that ongoing energy efficiency programmes

9

Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Promotion of Electricity
Produced from Renewable Energy Sources in the Internal Electricity Market. Brussels, 27 September
2001.
Also at: http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/pri/en/oj/dat/2001/l_283/l_28320011027en00330040.pdf
10

Directive 2002/91/EC of the European Parliament and the Council on the energy performance of buildings of
16 December 2002; Official Journal of the European Communities L1/65 of 4 January 2003.

11

Directive 2004/8/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 on the promotion of
cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market and amending Directive
92/42/EEC, Official Journal L 052, 21/02/2004

12

Directive 2005/32/EC establishing a framework for the setting of eco-design requirements for energy-using
products of 6 July 2005

13

Directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services and repealing Council Directive
93/76/EEC of 5 April 2006

16

at EU and Member States level and other “soft” measures will also contribute to better
energy efficiency.
Taking into account all these agreed energy efficiency action and having regard to
ongoing Climate Change activities with positive repercussions on energy efficiency as
well as the Action Plan to Improve Energy Efficiency in the European Community14
presented by the European Commission in 2000, the following energy efficiency scenario
shows a development that exploits large parts of the above mentioned potential for
energy efficiency in the EU.
In the absence of pertinent policy action, better energy efficiency is hampered by a large
number of barriers to investment. These barriers include energy prices that still do not
accurately reflect environmental externalities. There is lack of sufficient information on
the use of cost-effective and energy-efficient technology. There are also numerous
institutional and legal barriers. One example is the continued practice of selling energy in
the form of kWh instead of as energy services (e.g. efficient heating and cooling, lighting
and motive power) which is what the energy consumer ultimately wants. There are also
many different technical barriers to energy efficiency, including the lack of harmonised
and standardised components. Another important technical barrier is the lack of
appropriate ‘active’ distribution and transmission infrastructures, to permit effective
integration of greater volumes of small-scale, local generation. Financial barriers also
exist including the short paybacks required for many demand-side investments compared
with those for energy production.
The above mentioned Directives and other measures address these barriers. The EU
Emission Trading Scheme and its possible extension to aviation deals with market based
internalising environmental externalities. Information campaigns and energy labelling
help overcoming the information and awareness problems. Institutional and legal barriers
are addressed in the various Directives for buildings, energy efficiency in end-use and
also for CHP. The continued practice of selling energy in form of kWh instead as energy
services is addressed in the Directive on end-use energy efficiency and end services.
The modelling for the energy efficiency scenario assumes the full implementation of the
Directives on building performance and the Directive of end-use energy efficiency and
energy services as well as energy efficiency improvements stemming from the ecodesign Directive. As a result, efficiency improvements are more important in the
household and services sector. In transport, capturing the existing high efficiency
potentials for aviation would be facilitated by the inclusion of air transport into the
European emission trading scheme. In addition cogeneration becomes much more
important in the efficiency case compared with baseline. In the modelling of the “Energy
efficiency” case, energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs taking
advantage of cost-effective and energy efficient solutions in their purchase and
investment choices. Energy efficiency labelling is instrumental in this respect. Other
ongoing action at EU, national and local level, such as RTD policies, regional and
cohesion policy as well as transport policy contribute to better energy efficiency.
The “Energy efficiency” case investigates the effects of actions along these lines
focusing on those actions that can be modelled. The modelling analysis quantifies
expected results of energy efficiency action in areas such as building standards and
certification, inspection of boilers and vehicles, correct metering and billing of energy
consumption, promoting energy services, energy audits in industry, energy efficient
public procurement, CHP, fuel efficiency in transport, labelling, etc. The modelling

14

Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social
Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM (2000) 247 final of 26 April 2000.

17

includes in particular a considerably improved perception of real costs of energy, which
leads to the adoption of more energy efficient solutions by economic actors. It is assumed
that the policies would be implemented vigorously in the Member States. Useful energy
(energy services such as heat, light, cooling, motion, communication) is supplied in a
more efficient way following consumer choices based on perceived costs that take into
account more fully the advantages of higher energy efficiency. Moreover, energy related
equipment has somewhat better efficiency characteristics (compared with Baseline)
brought about by e.g. efficiency standards that force the least efficient energy consuming
items out of the market. Improvements in terms of building construction lead to
significant gains in thermal integrity and reduced energy requirements. In addition to
such improvements on the demand side, the “Energy efficiency” case also incorporates
improvements on the supply side. The use of co-generated steam and electricity is
encouraged, resulting in higher shares of CHP in electricity and steam generation
following the Directive on the promotion of cogeneration. Other than more cogeneration,
the supply side also shifts towards more efficient equipment in the long run driven by
faster technological progress. This leads to higher efficiency and lower equipment costs
compared with the Baseline.

1.2.2. “Energy efficiency” scenario results for EU-2515
1.2.2.1. Overview of main results
Modelling the above energy efficiency policies and measures leads to a significantly
different evolution of the EU-25 energy system in comparison to the Baseline scenario.
In 2010, primary energy needs in the “Energy efficiency” case are projected to be 2.3%
below Baseline levels. This decrease becomes more pronounced in the long run reaching
-11.9% in 2020 and -18.6% in 2030 (see Table 1.2-1). Beyond 2010 total energy
consumption is projected to decline by -0.7% pa over the period 2010 to 2030. In 2030
total EU-25 energy consumption in the “Energy efficiency” case is even lower in
absolute terms than it had been in 1990 (-0.9% from 1990 levels, -6.7% below 2000
levels).
Energy intensity decreases at the same rates given that no changes in GDP have been
assumed. Moreover, given that the sectoral production patterns also remain unchanged in
both the “Energy efficiency” case and the Baseline, these energy intensity gains can be
attributed to energy efficiency measures. Energy intensity improves by 0.7 percentage
points more per year than in the Baseline to reach 2.2% pa up to 2030.
Demand for all energy forms declines compared to Baseline. The biggest fall is projected
for nuclear and solid fuels, reaching -35.0% and -34.2% respectively in 2030 compared
to Baseline. As a result both these energy forms lose market share in primary energy
needs. The slowdown in electricity demand growth due to greater energy efficiency and
the higher exploitation of co-generation options in the power generation sector are the
key drivers for this result. Nuclear is exclusively used for electricity generation and solid
fuels are a major input for power stations. Nuclear is no option for CHP, which will be
predominantly based on natural gas given the size of cogeneration units.
On the contrary, other energy forms gain market shares in total energy consumption
(compared with Baseline) with the most significant increase in the long run occurring for
liquid fuels, the share of which reaches 36.9% in 2030 (+3.1 percentage points from
Baseline levels in 2030), followed by renewable energy forms (13.3% in 2030; +1.1
percentage points from Baseline levels) and natural gas (28.3% in 2030; +1.0 percentage
points from Baseline levels).

15

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 1.

18

Table 1.2-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1

2010
279.2
655.0
446.9
248.8
138.2
1770.3
1551.3
219.0
3775.3
3202.4
572.9

% change from baseline
2020
214.3
606.7
462.8
200.6
175.2
1661.7
1438.4
223.2
3404.1
2866.8
537.3

2030
192.8
569.8
436.9
137.1
204.9
1543.5
1320.7
222.8
3156.3
2641.5
514.8

2010
-2.7
-2.1
-3.3
0.0
-3.9
-2.3
-2.3
-2.9
-2.7
-2.7
-3.1

2020
-17.4
-9.4
-12.6
-12.3
-10.4
-11.9
-11.4
-14.6
-13.4
-13.2
-14.4

2030
-34.2
-11.0
-15.6
-35.0
-11.2
-18.6
-17.9
-22.3
-20.2
-20.2
-20.1

The combined effect of lower energy demand and changes in the fuel mix is clearly
reflected in the projected trend in CO2 emissions. In 2010 CO2 emissions are projected to
come back to the 1990 levels (compared to a +2.8% growth from 1990 levels in the
Baseline scenario). Furthermore, CO2 emissions are projected to experience a strong
decline in the period to 2030, falling -16.4% from 1990 levels. This is a substantial
improvement compared to Baseline developments (+4.7 in 2030 from 1990 levels). Thus,
in addition to pronounced energy intensity gains, the “Energy efficiency” case is further
characterised by significant carbon intensity gains in comparison to the Baseline
scenario. This is especially so in the long run, as carbon intensity is 2.0% below Baseline
in 2030 compared with an improvement of 0.4% from Baseline in 2010.
Table 1.2-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case
%
Solid fuels
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
30.8
76.4
49.6
47.2
49.5
30.1

2010
45.3
83.4
61.9
54.5
56.1
42.9

2020
50.1
92.2
78.8
63.1
64.9
51.5

2030
54.2
93.1
82.0
65.5
67.5
52.9

percentage points
difference from baseline
2010
2020
2030
-0.8
0.6
-4.8
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-2.6
-2.6
-0.5
-0.4
0.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.7
-1.1
-0.6
-0.8

However, in the “Energy efficiency” case import dependency in the long run is projected
to be slightly higher compared to the Baseline scenario (+0.6 percentage points in 2030,
see Table 1.2-2) as the lower exploitation of indigenous energy sources, such as solid
fuels and nuclear energy, which decrease most, more than counterbalances the decline in
primary energy needs. However, this is not the case for the short to medium term with
import dependency being 0.5 percentage points lower than in the Baseline scenario in
2010 and 0.4 percentage points lower in 2020.
1.2.2.2. Final energy demand
Energy requirements on the demand side of the EU-25 energy system develop at a
significantly slower pace compared to the Baseline scenario under the “Energy
efficiency” case assumptions (-2.6% in 2010, -11.5% in 2020 and -15.7% in 2030). The
biggest decline occurs in the tertiary sector, where energy consumption is 31.4% lower
than in the Baselines in 2030 (see Table 1.2-3). Energy needs in the residential and
transport sectors are also projected to decline significantly from Baseline levels (-26.0%
and -10.9% in 2030 respectively) whereas the impact of the policies considered in this
case is rather limited in industry (-0.6% in 2010, -2.4% in 2030).

19

Table 1.2-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the
“Energy efficiency” case
Mtoe
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS

Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

% change from baseline

2000
330.1
273.3
159.0
333.0
1095.4
970.7
124.7

2010
2020
354.1
370.5
302.3
279.9
175.9
166.1
373.0
367.7
1205.3
1184.2
1058.6
1026.7
146.7
157.5
Mt CO2 emissions

2030
382.3
260.0
154.6
358.4
1155.4
989.9
165.5

2010
2020
2030
-0.6
-3.1
-2.4
-3.1
-17.4
-26.0
-6.7
-21.6
-31.4
-2.1
-9.3
-10.9
-2.6
-11.5
-15.7
-2.6
-11.1
-15.0
-3.0
-14.1
-19.9
% change from baseline

2000
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9
2234.3
1985.3
249.0

2010
576.3
468.2
246.6
1050.9
2341.9
2066.5
275.5

2030
558.0
372.5
221.1
962.8
2114.3
1819.9
294.4

2010
-0.1
-3.0
-5.8
-2.2
-2.3
-2.3
-2.2

2020
568.8
414.4
232.9
1002.8
2218.9
1935.4
283.5

2020
-4.4
-16.3
-15.6
-10.1
-10.6
-10.5
-11.3

The limited energy intensity gains in industrial sectors are partly explained by the fact
that macro-economic assumptions remain unchanged from Baseline levels, i.e. no further
changes towards less energy intensive activities is included in the assumptions for this
policy case. In addition, EU-25 industry already experiences significant energy intensity
gains under Baseline assumptions (7.8% in 2000-2010, 30.2% in 2000-2030). These
gains arise through industrial restructuring but also by adoption of more efficient
production techniques. Thus there is only limited scope for further improvements. CO2
emissions from EU-25 industry are projected to follow a similar pace of decline (-0.1%
in 2010, -2.1% in 2030) to that of energy demand with changes in the fuel mix leading,
however, to a slight worsening of carbon intensity compared to the Baseline scenario.
The focus of efficiency policies towards improvements in buildings’ thermal integrity
and demand side management, but also the labelling of electric appliances, is reflected in
the projected changes in tertiary and household sector demand. The structure of energy
demand in services and households is quite similar because the bulk of energy
consumption takes place in buildings (like office blocks, hospitals, schools, dwellings
etc) and for the same purposes, namely heating, cooling, cooking, lighting and
appliances.
The technologies determining energy efficiency in services and households are also
largely the same. However, differences in terms of energy related equipment size,
especially for heating and cooling purposes, results in significant differences as regards
consumers’ behaviour. The average size of this equipment for a government building or
an office block is significantly larger than that for a dwelling. Consequently, technologies
that benefit from economies of scale in energy use are much more likely to be adopted in
the services sector than by households. In addition, decisions to invest in energy
efficiency are taken by firms in the tertiary sector but by individual people (or house
builders) in the household sector. Their perceptions of capital costs and opportunity costs
of capital naturally differ, in a way that investment in energy efficiency is often more
easily adopted by firms than by individuals.
The above factors explain the higher response of the tertiary sector in comparison to
households to the introduction of the policies examined here. Energy needs for heating
purposes in 2030 decline by -27.8% from Baseline levels in the tertiary sector and by 24.1% in households. The decline is significantly higher for consumption by electric
appliances (-50.4% in 2030 for the tertiary sector; -33.0% in households) reflecting the
large scope for action towards more rational use of energy and the benefits of appliance

20

2030
-2.1
-23.5
-21.6
-11.9
-13.0
-12.9
-14.0

labelling. As a result electricity demand in both sectors exhibits the largest decline
among all energy forms over the projection period. But electricity’s lower market share
in total energy needs leads to a worsening of carbon intensity both in the tertiary and the
households sectors, as CO2 emissions related to electricity are attributed to the power
generation sector. Thus, the projected decline in CO2 emissions in 2030 is limited to 21.6% below Baseline levels in the tertiary sector and -23.5% in households.
The availability of more efficient new vehicle technologies, combined with greater
incentives to consumers that encourage better understanding of technology costs, are the
key drivers for the decline in transport sector energy requirements (-2.1% in 2010, 10.9% in 2030). Energy efficiency improves further compared with Baseline for all
modes, especially for aviation and trucks. By comparison efficiency improvements over
Baseline are somewhat smaller for passenger cars as the CO2 agreement with the
European car industry, which is essentially a fuel efficiency agreement, is already
included in the Baseline. The fall in CO2 emissions is even more pronounced in the long
run (-2.2% in 2010, -11.9% in 2030) than the decline of transport energy consumption, as
the share of biofuels in gasoline and diesel increases above Baseline levels reaching 9.1%
in 2030 (+0.8 percentage points in comparison to the Baseline scenario).
As already discussed, in the “Energy efficiency” case the fuel mix in EU-25 demand side
undergoes significant changes in comparison to the Baseline scenario. In the short to
medium term oil decreases most in absolute terms. Changes in the transport sector are the
key driver for this projected decline (see Figure 1.2-1), accounting for 66% of the overall
reduction in final oil demand in 2010 and 65% in 2030. However, in percentage terms
demand for oil decreases at rates below the decline of total final energy demand over the
projection period (-2.4% in 2010 from Baseline levels, -13.2% in 2030). Consequently,
the market share of oil in final energy demand increases under the “Energy efficiency”
case assumptions to reach 38.5% in 2030 (+1.2 percentage points in comparison to the
Baseline scenario).
Figure 1.2-1: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline
in Mtoe) in the “Energy efficiency” case
0.0
-10.0
-12.3

-4.0

-1.2
-2.9
-7.0
-9.0

-7.8

-1.3

-1.3

-6.5
-12.1

-20.0
-30.0
-36.9

-40.0
-50.0
-60.0
-70.0
-80.0

-46.8

-48.4
-57.1
Liquids
Electricity
Gas
Heat
Other
Solids

-67.4

-79.6

-90.0
2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

21

The fall in electricity use becomes increasingly important in the long run (accounting in
2030 for 37% of final energy demand reduction compared to the Baseline). In the
presence of supporting policies for energy efficiency the share of electricity in final
energy demand grows at a much slower pace than in the Baseline scenario, reaching
22.0% in 2030 (from 24.4% in the Baseline scenario). The decline in electricity demand
is moderated by the fact that electricity is needed for many energy efficient ways of
providing energy services.
Natural gas consumption is also significantly affected by strong policies on energy
efficiency, but in absolute terms to a smaller extent than oil and electricity. By 2030,
natural gas accounts for 23.8% of energy requirements in the demand side (0.3
percentage points above Baseline levels). The demand for distributed heat declines at
rates well below average (-8.2% from Baseline levels in 2030). Thus its share in final
energy demand side increases to reach 7.6% in 2030 compared to 6.9% in the Baseline
scenario, consistent with the aim of promoting cogeneration. In the absence of additional
promotional policies for renewables (in addition to those already included in the
Baseline), there is lower renewables use on the demand side. The bulk of the decline
(close to 90% in 2030) arises from the lower use of biomass and waste in industry as an
increasing share of steam needs is satisfied from distributed heat. Finally demand for
solid fuels declines only slightly from Baseline levels (-3.9% in 2030) as solids even
under Baseline assumptions become a process specific (in heavy industries) energy form
in the demand side.
Following these changes in the fuel mix of final demand, the projected decline in CO2
emissions from the demand side is lower than that of energy needs (-13.0% from
Baseline levels in 2030 for CO2 emissions compared with -15.7% for energy
consumption). In particular, carbon intensive fuels such as solid fuels decline below
average and electricity demand is much lower than in the Baseline. According to
statistical conventions, CO2 emissions related to electricity are accounted for in the
power generation sector. Lower levels of electricity demand lead to lower “exports” of
emissions from final demand to power generation so that in total carbon intensity of final
demand worsens compared with Baseline, whereas carbon intensity of the whole energy
system improves slightly due to developments in power generation.
1.2.2.3. Electricity and steam generation
Policies towards energy efficiency cause significant changes for the electricity and steam
generation sector. As a result of actions undertaken on the demand side, overall
electricity production is projected to fall by 3.4% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 23.9
in 2030 (see Figure 1.2-2).
In the short term the decline, both in absolute and percentage terms, is more pronounced
as regards electricity generation from natural gas (-6.5% from Baseline levels in 2010).
Solid fuels and renewable energy forms lose similar amounts of electricity generation in
absolute terms; their percentage decline amounts to -3.4% and -4.8% from Baseline
levels respectively. About 66.5% of the reduction in electricity generation from
renewable energy forms compared to the Baseline scenario arises from the slower
development of wind turbines in the EU-25 energy system following lower requirements
for new investment due to lower electricity demand, whereas 17.5% corresponds to lower
electricity generation from biomass and waste. This leads to a slightly declining
renewables share compared with Baseline (17.8% compared to 18.1% in the Baseline
scenario) in the short term.

22

Figure 1.2-2: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from
Baseline in TWh) in the “Energy efficiency” case
2010

2020

2030

200
28
0
-30
-200

-57

-20 -5 -5

-56-39
-109

-119

-10 -9

-11

-98

-215 -209

-242

-286

-400
-425
-600
-639
-800

-1000

-1200

Solids
Gas
Nuclear
Wind energy
Biomass-waste
Hydro and other renewables
Oil
Total

-1043

Source: PRIMES.

From 2020 onwards, electricity generation from solid fuels (which is projected to make a
strong comeback in the power sector under Baseline assumptions) experiences the largest
decline from Baseline levels (-24.0% in 2020, -35.4% in 2030). The decline in the use of
natural gas is less pronounced (-17.7% in 2020, -23.1% in 2030). Nuclear energy is also
affected (-12.3% in 2020, -35.0% in 2030) as slower electricity demand growth
compared to Baseline limits the needs for investment in new nuclear power plants to
replace those being decommissioned over this period.
Beyond 2010, electricity generation from renewable energy forms declines at rates below
average (-11.3% in 2020, -9.7% in 2030). Thus, in the “Energy efficiency” case the share
of renewable energy forms in electricity generation grows on top of Baseline levels in the
long run to reach 32.7% in 2030 (+5.1 percentage points from Baseline). This marked
increase in the share of renewable energy forms more than counterbalances the projected
decline in the share of nuclear energy in the long run. In 2030, 48.7% of electricity
generation is projected to be satisfied by carbon free energy forms (+2.4 percentage
points up from Baseline levels).
Another important change in the power sector concerns the higher exploitation of
cogeneration options, and the adoption of more efficient generation technologies in the
long run. Production from cogeneration units reaches 38.4% of electricity and 93.5% of
distributed steam (i.e. excluding industrial and refinery boilers) generation by 2030
(24.3% and 88.6% respectively under Baseline scenario assumptions).
The more pronounced role of cogeneration in the “Energy efficiency” case is clearly
reflected in the evolution of installed capacity in the EU-25 energy system (see Table
1.2-4). With overall installed capacity reaching levels well below those in the Baseline
scenario (-3.0% in 2010, -21.7% in 2030), cogeneration capacity exhibits even a slight
increase in the long run (+5.3% from Baseline levels in 2030) accounting for 30.4% of
total installed capacity in 2030 from 22.6% in the Baseline scenario.

23

Table 1.2-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “Energy efficiency” case
change from baseline
(in GW)

GW installed

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste)
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Lakes
Run of river
Wind power
Wind on-shore
Wind off-shore
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
Solids fired
Oil fired
Gas fired
Natural gas
Derived gasses
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel cells
Geothermal heat
Total
EU-15
NMS
of which CHP
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
141.1
110.1
97.2
52.2
45.0
12.8
12.8
0.0
0.2
0.0
410.5
188.9
74.3
131.9
119.2
12.7
14.5
0.0
1.0
661.7
588.1
73.7
113.0
88.5
24.4

2010
136.4
176.4
102.7
56.0
46.7
71.7
64.3
7.4
1.7
0.2
473.9
154.5
63.6
234.3
222.5
11.8
20.2
0.0
1.4
786.7
702.9
83.8
144.8
119.1
25.7

2020
108.0
219.8
106.3
57.3
49.0
108.2
95.2
13.1
4.8
0.4
478.1
122.3
48.5
259.1
249.0
10.1
46.7
0.0
1.5
805.9
712.3
93.6
201.8
169.3
32.5

2030
65.2
262.7
110.6
58.5
52.1
141.4
107.2
34.1
10.4
0.4
530.7
147.5
39.0
263.0
255.2
7.8
79.7
0.0
1.5
858.6
733.2
125.5
261.3
206.5
54.8

2010
0.0
-7.9
-1.2
0.0
-1.2
-6.6
-5.7
-0.9
0.0
0.0
-16.2
-2.1
-2.4
-11.1
-11.1
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-24.0
-21.5
-2.6
-6.1
-5.6
-0.5

2020
-8.9
-21.7
-2.3
-0.5
-1.8
-19.4
-13.8
-5.6
0.0
0.0
-106.5
-34.5
0.5
-62.1
-62.7
0.6
-10.4
0.0
0.0
-137.1
-116.2
-20.9
-7.2
-6.3
-0.9

2030
-36.0
-43.2
-1.6
0.0
-1.6
-41.6
-31.4
-10.1
0.0
0.0
-158.9
-63.8
4.0
-97.1
-96.8
-0.4
-1.9
0.0
-0.2
-238.1
-196.8
-41.3
13.3
12.5
0.9

The two power generation technologies most strongly affected are solids fired and
natural gas fired power plants. The installed capacity of solids fired power plants falls to
just 147.5 GW in 2030 with a share of 17.2% in total installed capacity, compared to
211.2 GW and 19.3% in the Baseline scenario. The fall in natural gas fired plant capacity
reaches -27.5% below Baseline levels in 2030, limiting their share to 29.7% of total
installed capacity (2.4 percentage points below Baseline levels). Nuclear capacity is also
affected accounting in 2030 for 7.6% of total installed capacity from 9.2% in the
Baseline scenario. As regards installed capacity of intermittent renewable energy forms,
wind turbines capacity declines by 41.6 GW from Baseline levels in 2030 (accounting for
96.3% of the total capacity decline for renewables without biomass/waste). Biomasswaste fired capacity exhibits only a limited decline from Baseline levels in the long run (2.3% in 2030). Both the shares of intermittent renewable energy forms and biomasswaste fired plants capacities are projected to increase on top of Baseline levels reaching
30.6% and 9.3% of total installed capacity in 2030 (+2.7 and +1.8 percentage points from
Baseline levels, respectively).
The changes discussed above are also clearly reflected in the projected evolution of fuel
inputs in the electricity and steam generation sector (see Table 1.2-5). The consumption
of solid fuels in 2030 is some 40% lower than in the Baseline scenario. The input of gas
falls close to 19% below the Baseline level. On the other hand, the use of biomass and
waste exhibits only a limited decline in the long run (-2.5% from Baseline levels in
2030). In addition to the reduction in fossil fuel use, strong policies on energy efficiency
lead to lower nuclear input to power generation mainly due to lower electricity demand (35% from Baseline levels in 2030).
The decline of inputs to power generation in the “Energy efficiency” case arises both as a
result of lower electricity needs but also because of the adoption of more efficient power
generation technologies in the EU-25 energy system. Overall power generation efficiency

24

reaches 50.7% in 2030 (from 48.6% in the Baseline scenario) with the efficiency of
thermal power plants at 48.6% (+1.1 percentage points from Baseline).
Table 1.2-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “Energy
efficiency” case
Mtoe
Solids
Oil products
Gas
Biomass-waste
Nuclear energy
Geothermal heat
Total
EU15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
214.5
41.9
105.5
21.2
237.7
2.9
623.7
542.2
81.5
1250.0
997.8
252.2

2010
208.0
31.8
143.9
27.0
248.8
3.7
663.3
572.7
90.5
1280.0
1017.5
262.5

% change from baseline
2020
155.9
21.9
157.8
46.7
200.6
4.6
587.7
498.6
89.1
1070.0
839.8
230.3

2030
142.2
22.7
126.1
67.7
137.1
4.7
500.6
417.7
82.8
942.4
744.8
197.6

2010
-3.2
0.6
-5.8
-7.3
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-2.5
-3.2
-3.6
-3.6
-3.7

2020
-21.4
-5.9
-13.6
-12.8
-12.3
0.0
-15.0
-14.7
-16.8
-17.9
-18.4
-16.2

2030
-40.8
14.8
-18.7
-2.5
-35.0
-10.8
-28.6
-28.4
-29.6
-32.3
-33.8
-26.2

1.2.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks
The slower growth of electricity requirements, combined with the shift towards carbon
free energy forms and the more efficient production of electricity and steam, leads to
much lower CO2 emissions from the power generation sector. CO2 emissions from this
sector decline over the projection period (-3.6% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -32.3%
in 2030). In terms of carbon intensity (t of CO2 emitted per MWh of electricity and
steam) improvements reach 0.6% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 15.9% in 2030.
Figure 1.2-3: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in
the “Energy efficiency” case
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0
-100
-200

-54 -52
-107

-127
-157
-263 -262

-300

-299

-317

-284

-400
-426
-500

-482
-525

-600
-700
-800

Demand side
Supply side
Total

-726
-799

-900
Source: PRIMES.

The distribution of CO2 emissions reduction between the demand and the supply side is
illustrated in Figure 1.2-3. In the short to medium term, somewhat higher CO2 emissions
reductions are achieved in the demand side as a result of efficiency measures towards

25

reducing energy requirements. However, beyond 2020 the role of the supply side
becomes increasingly important accounting in 2030 for 60% of overall CO2 emissions
reductions. This result relates to the strong decline for electricity needs in the long term
arising from the improved efficiency characteristics and the more rational use of electric
appliances under the “Energy efficiency” case assumptions, which in turn allows for a
significantly less pronounced comeback of solid fuels in power generation and a higher
contribution of carbon free energy forms for power generation compared with Baseline
developments.
Concluding, the higher exploitation of energy efficiency options in the EU energy system
gives rise to a much more favourable development in the horizon to 2030 compared to
the Baseline scenario. Both the demand and the supply side contribute to this direction
with primary energy needs declining significantly (-18.6% compared to the Baseline in
2030). However, the import dependency of the EU-25 energy system exhibits a slight
worsening from Baseline levels (65.5% in 2030 compared to 64.9% in the Baseline) as
the significant decline of electricity requirements in the long term limits the need for new
investment in nuclear power plants and the come back of solids in the power generation
sector. On the other hand changes in the fuel mix allow for a further improvement of
carbon intensity in the EU-25 energy system (+2.0% from Baseline levels in 2030),
which in combination to the decreasing energy requirements brings about a much more
favourable development in terms of CO2 emissions in the short and long run. CO2
emissions in 2010 come back to their 1990 level instead of increasing by 3% in the
Baseline. In 2020, emissions are 10% below the 1990 level and in 2030 CO2 emissions
are projected to reach minus 16.4% below the 1990 level – a substantial improvement
compared to an increase of CO2 emissions by +4.7% from 1990 to 2030 in the Baseline
scenario.

1.3.

The “High renewables” case
1.3.1. EC policies promoting renewable energy forms and modelling
approach

In November 1997 the European Commission adopted the Communication “Energy for
the Future: Renewable Sources of Energy”, a White Paper for a Community Strategy and
Action Plan. The purpose of this White Paper is to contribute, by promoting renewable
energy sources, to the achievement of overall energy policy objectives: security of
supply, environment and competitiveness, and to improve and reinforce environment
protection and sustainable development. The White paper put forward the long standing
indicative objective of increasing the share of renewables in gross inland consumption to
12% in 2010. The White Paper identified a number of priority actions in the regulatory
sectors aimed at overcoming obstacles and redressing the balance in favour of renewable
energy, to reach the indicative objective of 12% penetration by 2010. Key areas for
promoting renewables include electricity from renewables, biofuels in transport, use of
renewables for heating and cooling, economic and fiscal measures, integration of
renewables in buildings, and standardisation.
Since the publication of the White Paper, important policy developments, including the
Communication on “The share of renewable energy in the EU”16 of 2004 and the
Biomass Action Plan17 of 2005 have underlined the key role of renewable energy in

16

17

Communication from the Commission “The share of renewable energy in the EU”, COM(2004) 366 final of
26 May 2004
Communication from the Commission “Biomass action plan”, COM(2005) 628 final of 7 December 2005

26

ensuring sustainable energy supplies for the Community, reinforcing social and
economic cohesion, developing European industry and contributing to job creation. The
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the process of integrating the environment into
energy policy will both underpin a greater role of renewables and international cooperation in this field. A renewable energy contribution to sustainability is broadly
endorsed at the international level.
Community policies on renewables have resulted in the adoption of the Directives on the
promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources and on the promotion
of biofuels in transport.
The Directive on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the
internal electricity market18 of 2001 has established a Community framework for
electricity from renewable energy sources. The objective is to support a significant
medium-term increase of electricity from renewable energy, or “green electricity”, in the
EU and to facilitate its access to the internal electricity market. The Directive aims to
create regulatory certainty for stakeholders, while at the same time respecting the
principle of subsidiarity by providing for a wide degree of autonomy to each Member
State to allow for their particular circumstances. Member States are obliged to establish
national targets for the future consumption of green electricity. These national targets
should lead to a 21% indicative share of electricity produced from renewable energy
sources in total Community (EU-25) electricity consumption by 2010. A 21% share of
electricity from renewables will contribute substantially towards the global indicative
target of 12% renewables in gross national energy consumption by 2010. The Directive
establishes a basis for the promotion of renewables in the internal electricity market and
tackles a number of technical issues, which are fundamental to the further development
of green electricity. It thus obliges Member States:
ƒ

to introduce accurate and reliable certification of green electricity,

ƒ

to assure priority access for green electricity to the electricity grid,

ƒ

to check how administrative procedures applicable to the installation of
generation plants for green electricity could be streamlined and simplified, and

ƒ

to ensure that the calculation of costs for connecting new producers of green
electricity to the electricity grid is transparent and non-discriminatory.

The biofuels19 Directive of 2003 sets out an indicative target that 5.75% of petrol and
diesel consumptions come from biofuels in 2010. Other measures on biomass are put
forward in the “Biomass Action Plan” and the Commission has announced in its recent
Green Paper on sustainable, competitive and secure energy that it will table a Directive
on heating and cooling as part of an effective EU policy on renewables. Other ongoing
renewables action include RTD, the follow-up of the Biomass Action Plan and
considerations of which renewables targets are necessary beyond 2010.
A higher renewables share is also supported by all those measures that reduce energy
consumption through higher energy efficiency such as the Directive on the energy
performance of buildings, the Directive on the promotion of cogeneration, the Directive
on end use energy efficiency and energy services and other measures on energy
efficiency including product labelling. Such synergies can be reinforced by amending the

18

Directive 2001/77/EC of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of the electricity produced from renewable
energy sources in the internal electricity market with later additions for accommodating indicative targets
for new Member States.
19
Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the
use of biofuels and other renewable fuels for transport (OJEU L123 of 17 May 2003)

27

buildings Directive to increase incentives for the use of renewable energy. The
“Intelligent Energy for Europe Programme” (2003-2006) provides assistance for the
better deployment of renewables and energy efficiency in the Community including in
the transport sector and extends to developing countries, too. This programme also
covers renewables use outside of the electricity and transport sectors, for which no
Directive so far exists.
Renewables market penetration is, on average, growing within the EU but it is not yet
sufficient. The available statistics show the undeniable take-off of wind energy. They
also highlight that expansion rates, higher than the EU average, have been achieved in
those Member States with proactive renewable energy policies. Though progress has
been made, considerable further efforts will be necessary to achieve the 12% objective.
The biomass sector represents the largest potential in RES. Therefore, specific attention
needs to be given to biomass, and the framework conditions should be further improved.
The Biomass Action Plan addresses these issues. Solar energy also offers a big potential
for further increasing renewables’ deployment through solar thermal use, especially for
water heating, in the short/medium term and solar photovoltaic in the longer term.
Therefore the “High renewables” scenario analysed in this chapter includes not only the
implementation of the electricity and the biofuels Directives, but it also assumes a
significant biomass/waste contribution in industry and considerable penetration of solar
water heating in the household and tertiary sectors. This scenario aims at quantifying
energy system implications of imposing as mandatory a certain numerical target about
penetration of renewable energy in the EU energy system at a future period of time, more
specifically a 12% renewables share in 2010 further increasing towards the achievement
of a renewables share close to 20% in 2020.
In order to reach such a renewables share in the PRIMES modelling, it is necessary to
proceed with iterative model runs. Instead of imposing directly an overall target for
renewables, it is assumed that a certain positive monetary value is associated with any
unit of energy produced by a renewable energy source. Such a monetary value does not
necessarily involve direct transfer of payments but its presence alters the economic
optimality calculations of the agents (either demanders or producers of energy). This
monetary value could be interpreted as a “virtual” subsidy and enters in calculations as a
negative unit cost, which is called here a “renewables value”20. Being a virtual subsidy,
the renewables value does not make energy cheaper but just influences the optimal fuel
mix as considered by each economic agent. Renewables values are applied for power
generation and all final demand sectors except for transport. In power generation, these
values impact on investment and dispatching decisions as they are virtually subtracted
from costs for investment, which leads to higher renewables investment and dispatching.
However, the costs of renewables are passed on to electricity and heat prices, which are
higher in this policy scenario compared with baseline. Compared with the baseline
scenario, energy would generally become more expensive, as it is the case with feed-in
tariff systems or other ways of renewables promotion. The presence of the renewables
value alters the optimality of decisions exactly as if the additional renewables constraint
was added to the baseline case. In modelling transport in this scenario, renewables
penetrate through enhanced biofuels deployment in a way compatible with the
developments in the other sectors.
Model iterations proceed as follows: start with a certain level of renewables value, insert
this value into the economic objectives of every agent and country, and run the model for

20

A similar methodology has been used to simulate global carbon emission constraints with models such as
Primes; in these cases a “carbon value” has been used.

28

all EU countries; calculate the level of overall penetration of renewable energy in the EU
and compare against the level of target; if the renewables penetration is lower than the
target, then increase renewables value, otherwise decrease; repeat this cycle of model run
and compare against target until convergence is reached. Endogenous dynamics of
renewable technologies and economies of scale associated with biomass supply
infrastructure are taken into account in the modelling, which lead to lower specific
biomass supply costs with greater biomass penetration. 21 At convergence, the scenario
assumptions are identical with baseline except for the renewable value. By comparing
with baseline, evaluation of energy systems implications of the overall EU renewables
target is obtained. The marginal cost of the renewables target is exactly equal to
renewables value; if plotted against different levels of targets, a marginal renewables
penetration cost curve is obtained. Total energy system cost under the high renewables
scenario is expected to be higher than at baseline, as explained above.
Following the above described methodology a “renewables value” of 25 €05 per MWh of
renewable energy was estimated as the additional incentive needed for both demanders
and producers of energy so as to achieve the 12% renewables share in total primary
energy needs for 2010. Reaching close to a 20% renewables share in 2020 implies a
further increase of this renewables value at 32.5 €05 per MWh. For 2030 the renewables
value was set at 35 €05 per MWh in this scenario, reflecting a further intensification of
effort in the EU-25 energy system towards the exploitation of renewable energy options.

1.3.2. “High renewables” scenario results for EU-2522
1.3.2.1. Overview of main results
The introduction of additional policies and measures for renewables, expressed through
the “renewables values” aimed at achieving the 12% and 20% renewables share in 2010
and 2020 respectively lead to significant changes in the future evolution of the fuel mix
in the EU-25 energy system. Yet overall primary energy demand remains essentially
unchanged from Baseline levels in 2010, exhibiting a limited decline thereafter of -1.8%
from Baseline levels in 2030 (see Table 1.3-1). In this scenario energy efficiency follows
Baseline trends, thus the limited energy intensity gains occurring in the long run reflect
mainly the higher exploitation of wind and other intermittent renewable energy forms
(with an attributed efficiency of 100% according to Eurostat conventions). However,
there are significant changes in the fuel mix with demand for renewables growing at rates
well above those projected in the Baseline scenario (5.2% pa in 2000-2030 compared to
3.0% pa in the Baseline), a growth that occurs to the detriment of all other energy forms.
In 2010, renewable energy forms account for 11.6% of primary energy needs (a rise of
+3.6 percentage points from Baseline levels). This increase on top of Baseline occurs
mainly to the detriment of solid fuels (accounting from 14.2% of primary energy needs, 1.6 percentage points from Baseline levels) as well as oil and gas (34.9% and 24.5%,
respectively, both declining by -1.0 percentage point compared to the Baseline). Nuclear
remains unchanged as no investment decisions on new nuclear would be affected in the
short term.

21

If technicoeconomic and fuel supply assumptions were kept identical to those used for baseline scenario, then
there would be no additional technology progress as higher penetration levels for renewables are reached.
This means that despite higher deployment of renewables unit costs of renewable technologies remain
equal to their values as in baseline. Such an assumption would be unrealistic as higher deployment of
renewable technologies will enable more technology progress (lower capital costs and higher efficiency in
collecting, transporting and processing biomass) as compared with baseline trends.

22

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 2.

29

Table 1.3-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1

2010
257.7
651.6
443.9
248.8
209.8
1813.9
1586.0
227.9
3673.9
3120.6
553.3

% change from baseline
2020
195.8
630.8
482.3
196.4
359.5
1866.8
1607.1
259.7
3449.0
2940.7
508.3

2030
200.0
585.1
488.0
140.2
446.3
1861.7
1579.3
282.3
3352.9
2844.4
508.5

2010
-10.2
-2.6
-4.0
0.0
45.9
0.1
-0.1
1.1
-5.4
-5.2
-6.4

2020
-24.5
-5.8
-8.9
-14.1
83.9
-1.0
-1.0
-0.7
-12.2
-10.9
-19.0

In 2020, the use of renewables in the EU-25 energy system increases by 84% from
Baseline levels with their share reaching 19.3% compared to 10.4% in the Baseline
scenario. Demand for solid fuels exhibits again the strongest decline from Baseline levels
(-24.5%) followed by nuclear energy (-14.1%), natural gas (-8.9%) and liquid fuels (5.8%). In 2020 solid fuels account for 10.5% of primary energy needs, liquids for 33.8%,
gas for 25.8% and nuclear for 10.5% (-3.3, -1.7, -2.3 and -1.6 percentage points
respectively compared to the Baseline scenario).
The assumed further strengthening of promoting policies for renewable energy forms in
the horizon to 2030 leads to an increase of their share in primary energy needs up to
24.0% (+11.8 percentage point from Baseline levels in 2030). This further growth for
renewables strongly affects nuclear energy and solid fuels (-33.5% and -31.8%
respectively compared to the Baseline). The effects on liquid fuels (-8.6%) and natural
gas (-5.8%) are less pronounced. The share of nuclear energy in primary energy needs
falls to 7.5% (3.6 percentage points below Baseline). The share of solids sinks to 10.6%
(-4.7 percentage points), the oil share to 31.4% (-2.4 percentage points) and that of
natural gas to 26.2% (-1.1 percentage points).
The higher exploitation of biomass and waste is the key driver for the substantial increase
of the renewables share in the “High renewables” case accounting for 67.8% of
incremental renewables demand in 2010, 72% in 2020 and 68.6% in 2030 (see Figure
1.3-1). Biomass/waste deployment in the “High renewables” case in 2030 is twice as
high as in the Baseline. Besides the higher utilisation of biomass and waste in the power
generation sector, the significant increase of biofuels share in gasoline and diesel oil used
in the transport sector contributes to this increase. A substantial increase in the long run
is also projected for solar energy and geothermal heat, reaching in 2030 levels that are
6.7 and 3.5 times higher than those reached in the Baseline scenario, respectively. The
high exploitation of wind energy, already achieved in the Baseline, is further enhanced,
in the “High renewables” case with the increase for wind energy reaching 45.5% in 2030
(63.8% in 2020) from Baseline levels. Finally, hydro energy increase by just 3.1% from
Baseline levels in 2030 (5.7% in 2020) as a result of environmental restrictions and the
already high exploitation of suitable sites in the EU-25 energy system.

30

2030
-31.8
-8.6
-5.8
-33.5
93.3
-1.8
-1.8
-1.5
-15.2
-14.1
-21.0

Figure 1.3-1: Changes in primary energy demand by renewable energy form in EU-25
(diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “High renewables” case
160.0
140.0
120.0

147.8

Biomass & Waste
Hydro
Wind
Geothermal
Solar and others

118.0

100.0
80.0
60.0
44.7
40.0

29.3
20.0
17.3

16.8 17.8

20.0
2.1

7.2 10.7

9.5
1.8

1.2

1.0

0.0
2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

The increase in the share of renewable energy forms more than counterbalances the
strong decline for nuclear energy in the long run with the share of carbon free energy
forms in the EU-25 energy system reaching 25.3% in 2010, 29.8% in 2020 and 31.5% in
2030 (up +3.6, +7.3 and +8.2 percentage points from Baseline levels respectively). In
combination to the strong impact that promoting policies for renewable energy forms
have on the comeback of solid fuels in the EU-25 energy system, projected to occur
under Baseline assumptions in the long run, the “High renewables” case is characterised
by significant improvements in carbon intensity (-5.4% from Baseline levels in 2010, 11.3% in 2020 and -13.7% in 2030). In that context CO2 emissions are projected to
decrease by -2.7% from 1990 levels in 2010 (i.e. remaining stable compared to 2000
levels), by -8.7% from 1990 levels in 2020 and by -11.2% from 1990 levels in 2030.
Table 1.3-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case
%
Solid fuels
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
30.8
76.4
49.6
47.2
49.5
30.1

2010
43.2
83.3
61.4
52.1
53.8
39.4

2020
51.1
92.3
79.7
58.2
60.3
45.2

2030
50.2
93.3
83.6
57.8
60.0
44.9

percentage points
difference from baseline
2010
2020
2030
-2.9
1.7
-8.8
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-1.3
-1.7
-1.0
-3.0
-5.3
-7.1
-2.7
-5.1
-6.8
-4.7
-6.9
-8.8

The higher exploitation of renewable energy forms (which are indigenously produced in
the EU-25) has also a strong impact on the evolution of import dependency for the EU25 energy system (see Table 1.3-2). In 2010, import dependency is limited to 52.1%
compared to 55.1% in the Baseline, increasing to 58.2% in 2020 and declining thereafter
to 57.8% in 2030 (5.3 and 7.1 percentage points below Baseline levels, respectively).

31

1.3.2.2. Final energy demand
In the absence of additional policies towards energy efficiency improvements compared
with Baseline, final energy demand in the EU-25 energy system exhibits a slight
worsening from Baseline levels (+0.2% in 2010, +0.5% in 2030) as a result of the higher
exploitation of biomass and waste options with somewhat lower efficiencies than e.g. gas
and electricity at the useful energy level in the demand side but also increasing electricity
and steam tariffs (see Table 1.3-3).
Table 1.3-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the
“High renewables” case
Mtoe
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS

Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

% change from baseline

2000
330.1
273.3
159.0
333.0
1095.4
970.7
124.7

2010
2020
358.9
384.9
312.9
339.9
188.0
210.2
381.2
405.5
1240.9
1340.5
1089.4
1157.3
151.5
183.1
Mt CO2 emissions

2030
393.5
352.8
228.4
402.3
1377.1
1170.0
207.1

2010
2020
2030
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.8
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.3
% change from baseline

2000
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9
2234.3
1985.3
249.0

2010
558.8
479.2
260.0
1051.9
2349.9
2071.3
278.5

2030
544.3
481.9
237.0
986.9
2250.2
1928.6
321.6

2010
-3.2
-0.7
-0.7
-2.1
-1.9
-2.0
-1.1

2020
566.7
490.8
261.2
1043.3
2362.0
2053.9
308.1

2020
-4.8
-0.8
-5.3
-6.5
-4.8
-5.0
-3.6

Higher use of biomass and waste mainly in industry and of solar thermal panels for water
heating in services and households leads to significant changes in the fuel mix (see
Figure 1.3-2). Both changes occur mainly to the detriment of natural gas (-1.2% from
Baseline levels in 2010, -3.5% in 2030) and liquid fuels (-2.4% in 2010, -10.0% in 2030).
Natural gas and liquid fuels lose market share in both industry (mainly through
biomass/waste use in industrial boilers) and in services and households (where, for water
heating, conventional fuels are replaced by solar thermal panels). In 2030, consumption
of biomass and waste is 78.8% higher than in the Baseline scenario (41.8% in 2010). The
increase for solar energy is even more pronounced reaching 88.5% in 2010 and it is 7.3
times higher than in the Baseline scenario by 2030. By 2030, biomass and waste account
for 8.8% of energy requirements in the demand side (from 5.0 in the Baseline scenario)
and solar energy for 1.9% (from 0.3% in the Baseline scenario). The share of liquid fuels
(including biofuels blended in gasoline and diesel) is limited to 33.5% (3.9 percentage
points below Baseline levels in 2030), the gas share to 22.5% (-0.9 percentage points)
and that of electricity to 23.8% (-0.6 percentage points).
Furthermore, the share of biofuels increases significantly in this “High renewables”
scenario. Biofuels, blended in gasoline and diesel used in the transport sector, reach a
share of 6.4% in 2010, 14.2% in 2020 and 19.1% in 2030 (+2.4 percentage points from
Baseline levels in 2010, +7.3 in 2020 and +10.8 in 2030). Taking into account this
increased share of biofuels the decline in oil consumption becomes even more
pronounced reaching close to -18% from Baseline levels in 2030 with their share limited
to 28.9% from 35.4% in the Baseline scenario. In other words the share of biofuels in
total final energy demand increases from 2.0% in 2030 under the Baseline scenario
assumptions to 4.6% in the “High renewables” case.

32

2030
-4.5
-1.0
-15.9
-9.7
-7.4
-7.7
-6.1

Figure 1.3-2: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline
in Mtoe) in the “High renewables” case
60.0

40.0

Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Heat
Solids
Other
Biomass & Waste

53.5
44.0

23.2

22.8
20.0
6.6
1.2
0.0

-0.5
-3.3 -3.1-1.9

-1.8-0.7
-5.3
-7.2

-12.2

-0.8 -0.5
-6.4
-11.2

-20.0

-33.6

-40.0

-51.0
-60.0
2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

This trend is also clearly reflected on the evolution of CO2 emissions in the transport
sector, which exhibit a strong decline in the “High renewables case (-2.1% from Baseline
levels in 2010, -9.7% in 2030) despite the fact that energy requirements in transport
remain unchanged from Baseline levels. An even more pronounced decline of CO2
emissions is projected for the tertiary sector (-15.9% from Baseline levels in 2030)
reflecting the large scope for exploitation of solar energy options, whereas the decline is
limited to -4.5% in industry and -1.0% in the residential sector. Total CO2 emissions in
the EU-25 demand side decrease by -1.9% from Baseline levels in 2010, -4.8% in 2020
and -7.4% in 2030.
1.3.2.3. Electricity and steam generation
Significant changes also occur in the electricity and steam generation sector (see Figure
1.3-3). Renewable energy forms increase their market share to the detriment of gas and
solid fuels in the “High renewables” case, while overall electricity requirements exhibit a
limited decline from Baseline levels (-1.3% in 2010 up to -2.5% in 2030). In absolute
terms the most pronounced growth above Baseline levels is projected for the use of
biomass and waste in electricity generation (+62.5% in 2010, +121.6% in 2030). The
further expansion of wind energy beyond baseline levels is also substantial: +45.9% in
2010 and +45.5% in 2030. Other renewable energy forms exhibit substantial
improvement on top of Baseline levels in relative terms with electricity generation from
solar energy in 2030 being 9.4 times higher than in the Baseline scenario and that for
geothermal heat 4.0 times higher. However, their share in total electricity generation
remains rather small (1.9% for solar energy in 2030, 0.7% for geothermal heat). In total,
the share of renewable energy forms (including waste) in electricity generation increases
to 23.5% in 2010, 39.4 in 2020 and 45.6% in 2030 (5.4, 16 and 18 percentage points
above Baseline levels, respectively), with biomass and waste accounting for 40.3% of
renewable electricity in 2030, wind energy for 33.0% and hydro for 20.9% (from 18.3%,
33.1% and 46.0% respectively in 2010).

33

Figure 1.3-3: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from
Baseline in TWh) in the “High renewables” case
2010

2020

2030

500
430
400

334

300
201

195

200
84

100

57

107

77
37

0
-100

-47
-115 -110

-125

-86

-106

-108

-200
-300
-400
-500

Solids
Gas
Nuclear
Wind energy
Biomass-waste
Hydro and other renewables
Oil
Total

-257

-274

-309

-465

-600
Source: PRIMES.

In the short term the increased use of renewable energy forms for electricity generation
occurs to the detriment both of natural gas (-12.6% in 2010) and solid fuels (-13.2%). In
the long term the decline in solid fuels use becomes significantly more pronounced
reaching -38.7% in 2030 compared to -10.4% for natural gas. Electricity generation from
nuclear energy is also strongly affected in the long run exhibiting a decline of -33.5%
from Baseline levels in 2030.
The above changes are also reflected in the evolution of the installed capacity in EU-25
power generation sector (see Table 1.3-4) with capacity for intermittent renewable
energy forms reaching close to 450 GW in 2030 (37.7% of total installed capacity
compared to 27.9% in the Baseline scenario). Furthermore biomass-waste fired power
plants capacity exceeds 155 GW in 2030 (74 GW more than in the Baseline scenario). In
total, power generation capacity using renewable energy forms is projected to account for
50.8% of total installed capacity in 2030 compared to 35.3% in the Baseline (in 2010:
29.7% compared to 25.3%). The most pronounced increase is projected for wind turbines
capacity which reaches 275 GW in 2030 (+92.2 GW from Baseline levels accounting for
42.9% of incremental renewables capacity in 2030 compared to 34.5% for biomass-waste
power plants). Given that wind energy accounts for just 27.2% of incremental renewable
electricity compared to 58.2% for biomass and waste, it is clear that in the context of the
“High renewables” case, high cost wind energy options are exploited (involving lower
utilisation rates compared to wind energy options undertaken under Baseline
assumptions). In combination to the strong growth for solar capacity, this gives rise to a
strong increase of overall installed capacity on top of Baseline levels despite the lower
electricity requirements projected in the “High renewables” case. As a result the load
factor of the power generation sector exhibits a worsening from Baseline levels reaching
41.0% in 2030 (4.4 percentage points lower than in the Baseline scenario).

34

Table 1.3-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “High renewables” case
change from baseline
(in GW)

GW installed

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste)
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Lakes
Run of river
Wind power
Wind on-shore
Wind off-shore
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
Solids fired
Oil fired
Gas fired
Natural gas
Derived gasses
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel cells
Geothermal heat
Total
EU-15
NMS
of which CHP
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
141.1
110.1
97.2
52.2
45.0
12.8
12.8
0.0
0.2
0.0
410.5
188.9
74.3
131.9
119.2
12.7
14.5
0.0
1.0
661.7
588.1
73.7
113.0
88.5
24.4

2010
136.4
220.8
108.1
57.4
50.7
110.8
95.2
15.7
1.7
0.2
475.5
152.2
64.4
228.5
216.6
11.8
26.7
0.0
3.8
832.8
745.8
87.0
144.2
119.4
24.7

2020
111.4
348.4
111.7
58.8
52.8
208.6
153.1
55.5
27.7
0.4
554.6
112.1
41.9
280.2
270.8
9.4
114.6
0.0
5.8
1014.4
894.2
120.2
207.8
176.4
31.4

2030
66.9
446.6
113.8
59.2
54.5
275.1
177.0
98.1
57.3
0.4
671.8
137.6
35.6
336.5
328.4
8.1
155.6
0.0
6.4
1185.3
1014.7
170.6
249.9
197.5
52.4

2010
0.0
36.6
4.2
1.4
2.8
32.4
25.1
7.4
0.0
0.0
-14.6
-4.3
-1.6
-17.0
-17.0
0.0
5.9
0.0
2.4
22.0
21.4
0.6
-6.7
-5.3
-1.4

2020
-5.5
106.9
3.0
1.0
2.0
81.0
44.2
36.9
22.8
0.0
-30.0
-44.7
-6.0
-41.0
-40.9
-0.1
57.5
0.0
4.2
71.4
65.7
5.7
-1.2
0.8
-2.0

2030
-34.3
140.7
1.6
0.7
0.9
92.2
38.3
53.8
46.9
0.0
-17.8
-73.6
0.7
-23.6
-23.5
-0.1
74.0
0.0
4.7
88.6
84.8
3.8
1.9
3.5
-1.6

The strong penetration of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector has a
particularly important impact on solids fired power plants, the installed capacity of which
falls to just 137.6 GW in 2030 with a share of 11.6% in total installed capacity (7.7
percentage points lower than in the Baseline). Nuclear capacity is also affected in the
long run (-34% from Baseline levels in 2030) accounting in 2030 for 5.6% of total
installed capacity from 9.2% in the Baseline scenario. The fall in natural gas fired plant
capacity reaches -6.7% below Baseline levels in 2030 (-13.1% in 2020), limiting their
share to 28.4% of total installed capacity (4.4 percentage points below Baseline levels).
The increasing exploitation of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector
also contributes to an improvement of the overall power generation efficiency with fuel
input in power plants declining at rates well above those of electricity generation over the
projection period (see Table 1.3-5). The strong penetration of intermittent renewable
energy forms and the declining contribution of nuclear energy are the key driver for this
result with overall power generation efficiency reaching 50.8% in 2030 (+2.2 percentage
points compared to the Baseline scenario). However, the efficiency of thermal power
plants is projected to reach only 46% in 2030 compared to 47.5% in the Baseline as
biomass and waste fired power plants are less efficient than those that they replace
following policies promoting renewable energy forms. Consumption of biomass and
waste in power generation increases by 50% in 2010 and more than doubles from
Baseline levels in 2020 and 2030. The most pronounced decline from Baseline levels is
projected for solid fuels (reaching -38% in 2030) whereas transformation input of natural
gas declines at higher rates in the medium term (-19.8% in 2020) than in 2030 (-8.6%).
Nuclear also declines substantially in the long run reaching -33.5% from Baseline levels
in 2030.

35

Table 1.3-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “High
renewables” case
Mtoe
2000
214.5
41.9
105.5
21.2
237.7
2.9
623.7
542.2
81.5
1250.0
997.8
252.2

Solids
Oil products
Gas
Biomass-waste
Nuclear energy
Geothermal heat
Total
EU15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2010
188.1
32.4
138.4
44.0
248.8
14.4
666.0
571.9
94.2
1188.2
943.3
245.0

% change from baseline
2020
136.8
23.4
146.5
114.0
196.4
22.4
639.5
537.8
101.7
971.5
793.4
178.1

2030
149.0
20.7
141.9
147.2
140.2
25.2
624.2
515.6
108.6
1002.7
835.3
167.4

2010
-12.5
2.4
-9.4
50.9
0.0
290.1
-2.2
-2.7
0.7
-10.5
-10.6
-10.1

2020
-31.1
0.5
-19.8
112.7
-14.1
386.4
-7.5
-8.0
-4.9
-25.5
-22.9
-35.2

1.3.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks
The projected changes in the fuel mix lead to CO2 emissions reduction from the power
generation sector of -10.5% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -28.0% in 2030 with
improvements in terms of carbon intensity reaching 11.1% from Baseline levels in 2010
and 27.9% in 2030. In the presence of policies promoting renewable energy forms CO2
emissions from the power generation sector remain well below 2000 levels over the
projection period with reductions from Baseline levels being about 4 times higher than in
the demand side in 2010 and still more than twice as high in 2030. Thus, in 2010 the
supply side accounts for 78% of total CO2 emissions reduction achieved from Baseline
levels, a share dropping to 70% by 2030 (see Figure 1.3-4).
Figure 1.3-4: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in
the “High renewables” case
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0
-46
-100

-83
-119

-200

-158

-162
-208

-181
-249

-300

-332

-400

-360
-388
-421

-500

-600

-480
Demand side
Supply side
Total

-546
-602

-700
Source: PRIMES.

Total CO2 emissions are over 200 mill.t lower than Baseline in 2010 and over 600 mill.t
lower in 2030. Compared to the Kyoto base-year 1990, CO2 emissions decrease to minus

36

2030
-38.0
4.8
-8.6
112.0
-33.5
379.3
-10.9
-11.6
-7.7
-28.0
-25.7
-37.5

3% in 2010 (instead of increasing 3% in the Baseline) and to minus 11% in 2030 (instead
of growing by 5% in the absence of strong renewables policies).
Concluding, the “High renewables” case is characterised by a substantial shift towards
the use of renewable energy forms that, despite the limited energy intensity gains (-1.8%
from Baseline levels in 2030) allow for a much more favourable development of the EU25 energy system in the horizon to 2030 both in terms of import dependency (57.8% in
2030 compared to 64.9% in the Baseline) as well as in terms of CO2 emissions that
remain below 1990 levels over the projection period (-2.7% in 2010, -11.2% in 2030).

1.3.3. “12% renewables share in 2010” scenario results for EU-2523
The “12% renewables share in 2010” case exploits the evolution of the EU-25 energy
system in the horizon to 2030 with supporting policies for renewable energy forms
remaining constant over the projection period at the levels needed for the achievement of
a 12% share for renewable energy forms in 2010 (i.e. the “renewables value” of 25 €05
per MWh is kept constant in 2010-2030).
Table 1.3-6: Evolution of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system in the
“12% renewables share in 2010” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1

2010
258.2
652.6
442.8
248.8
208.9
1813.5
1585.8
227.7
3677.0
3124.1
552.9

% change from baseline
2020
203.1
648.3
489.4
205.8
322.8
1871.6
1611.7
259.8
3547.7
3019.8
527.8

2030
215.7
613.4
495.8
156.7
378.5
1862.3
1579.1
283.1
3518.2
2975.5
542.7

2010
-10.0
-2.4
-4.2
0.0
45.3
0.1
-0.1
1.0
-5.3
-5.1
-6.5

2020
-21.7
-3.2
-7.6
-10.0
65.1
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-9.7
-8.5
-15.9

2030
-26.4
-4.2
-4.3
-25.7
64.0
-1.7
-1.8
-1.3
-11.0
-10.1
-15.7

As was the case in the “High renewables” scenario, overall primary energy needs in the
EU-25 energy system exhibit only a limited decline from Baseline levels (see Table
1.3-6).24 Nevertheless, demand for renewable energy forms exhibits a strong growth on
top of baseline levels over the projection period (+45.3% in 2010, +64.0% in 2030) while
a decline of energy requirements for all other energy forms is projected. In the short term,
the most pronounced changes occur in the use of solid fuels and natural gas (-10.0% and
-4.2 % from Baseline levels in 2010 respectively). In the long term the use of solids is
most affected (-26.4% in 2030) followed by nuclear energy (-25.7%). With renewables
promotion there is less replacement of nuclear by such plants at the end of their lifetime.
The bulk of the increase in renewable energy use is for biomass/waste (67.8% of
incremental demand for renewables in 2010, 66.9% in 2030), whereas the contribution of
other renewable energy sources, such as hydro, wind, solar and geothermal energy, is
23

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 3.

24

It should be noted that results for 2010 are slightly different to those of the “High renewables” case despite
the fact that the same “renewables value” is introduced for that year. This is explained by the intertemporal character of the power generation sector model due to which investment decisions are not only
affected by prevailing assumptions in a specific year but through expectations of investors also by the
overall policy approach in the specific scenario (i.e. existence of signals for strengthening renewables
promotion, such as targets, or their absence). Thus, with different “renewables values” beyond 2010 for
the “12% renewables share in 2010” to the “High renewables” case the results for 2010 are also affected.

37

less pronounced. The high exploitation of the large potential of biomass/waste in the EU25 energy system, especially in power and steam generation, as well as in biofuels
production, is the key driver for this result.
The share of renewable energy forms reaches 11.5% in 2010, 17.2% in 2020 and 20.3%
in 2030 (compared with 7.4%, 10.4 and 12.2% respectively in the Baseline scenario).
These changes also influence the projected evolution of CO2 emissions from the EU-25
energy system. In 2010, CO2 emissions in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case are
projected to be -5.3% below Baseline levels (-11.0% in 2030). Import dependency also
improves somewhat, being limited to 52.1% in 2010 (-3.0 percentage points from
Baseline levels) and 60.1% in 2030 (compared to 64.9% in the Baseline scenario).
The demand side also undergoes some significant changes from Baseline levels. While
final energy demand exhibits a slight growth on top of Baseline levels (+0.2% in 2010,
+0.1% in 2030) policies stimulating the use of renewable energy lead to changes in the
fuel mix with higher use of biomass and waste as well as solar energy occurring to the
detriment of all other energy forms. Furthermore, the share of biofuels increases
significantly in this “12% renewables share in 2010” case. Biofuels reach shares of 6.4%
in 2010 and 13.1% in 2030. The corresponding shares in the Baseline scenario are 3.9%
in 2010 and 8.3% in 2030.
The projected changes in the fuel mix on the demand side towards the use of less carbon
intensive energy forms lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by -1.9% from Baseline
levels in 2010 and -3.7% in 2030. In the short term the biggest improvement in carbon
intensity occurs in industry (-3.0% from Baseline levels in 2010). Transport related CO2
emissions are projected to be -2.1% below Baseline levels in 2010, due to the higher
exploitation of the biofuels potential. In the long term the tertiary sector experiences the
largest decline from Baseline levels in CO2 emissions (-6.4% in 2030) as a result of the
substantial increase in the use of solar energy.
Significant changes also occur in the electricity and steam generation sector. Renewable
energy forms increase their market share to the detriment of gas and solid fuels in the
“12% renewables share in 2010” case, while overall electricity requirements are slightly
lower than those in the Baseline scenario. Nuclear energy is also strongly affected in the
long run. The most pronounced growth above Baseline levels in relative terms is
projected for solar energy and geothermal heat with electricity generation from these
energy forms in 2030 reaching 7.3 and 3 times higher from Baseline levels. However,
their share in total electricity generation remains small reaching 1.5% for solar energy
and 0.7% for geothermal heat in 2030 (+1.3 and +0.5 percentage points above Baseline
levels respectively). The use of biomass and waste in electricity generation exhibits the
highest growth in absolute terms (+61.7% in 2010, +90.3% in 2030), whereas expansion
in the use of wind energy is limited to +45.7% in 2010 and +41.5% in 2030 reflecting the
strong penetration already achieved in the Baseline. In the short term the increased use of
renewable energy forms for electricity generation purposes occurs to the detriment both
of natural gas (-12.7% in 2010) and solid fuels (-12.8%). In the long term the decline in
solid fuels use reaches -31.9% in 2030 compared to -8.3% for natural gas. A strong
decline is also projected for nuclear energy (-25.7% from Baseline levels in 2030). The
above changes lead to a significant increase of the share of renewable energy in
electricity generation reaching 23.5% in 2010 and 42.0% in 2030 (+5.4 and +14.4
percentage points from Baseline levels respectively). Furthermore, the projected changes
in the fuel mix lead to CO2 emissions reduction from the power generation sector of 10.4% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -22.9% in 2030.
Overall CO2 reduction compared with Baseline derives mostly from changes on the
supply side over the projection period (77.9% of total CO2 reduction in 2010, 79.4% in
2030). CO2 emissions in absolute terms exhibit a continuous decline from 1990 levels in
the period to 2030 (-2.6% in 2010, -6.1% in 2020 and -6.8% in 2030).

38

Concluding, the “12% renewables share in 2010” case is characterised by similar trends
to those discussed earlier for the “High renewables” case, however, less pronounced ones
as supporting policies for renewable energy forms remain stable at 2010 levels in the
horizon to 2030. With primary energy requirements exhibiting only a slight decline from
Baseline levels, bringing nevertheless a slight improvement in energy intensity, the
changes in the fuel mix towards renewable energy forms allow for significant
improvements both regarding the evolution of CO2 emissions and the import dependency
of the EU-25 energy system. For example, CO2 emissions in 2030 are down 7% from
their 1990 level in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, whereas they decrease 11%
below 1990 in the “High renewables” case. Import dependency in 2030 would be limited
to 60% in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case, whereas it reaches only 58% in the
“High renewables” case. On the other hand, costs are higher in long run for the “High
renewables” case, mirrored by a renewables value of 35 €05/MWh in 2030 compared to
25 €05/MWh in the “12% renewables share in 2010” case.

1.4.

The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
1.4.1. Modelling approach

This scenario aims at simulating the energy and environment effects (in terms of CO2
emissions) of successfully implementing strong policies for both energy efficiency and
renewables as far as such measures can be modelled. The policies included relate to those
discussed earlier on the “Energy efficiency” and the “High renewables” case. In the
approach retained, the “Energy efficiency and high renewables case” combines the
assumptions of the above mentioned cases, focusing on exploring the possible synergies
and trade-offs of policies promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy forms
simultaneously, regardless of any specific targets (for example rather than revising the
“renewables value” so as to achieve a 12% renewables share in 2010 and 20% share in
2020, it is kept as in the “High renewables” case).

1.4.2.

“Combined high renewables and efficiency” scenario results for EU2525

1.4.2.1. Overview of main results
The combination of policies promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy forms
leads to a significantly different evolution of the EU-25 energy system in comparison to
the Baseline scenario (see Table 1.4-1). In 2010, primary energy needs in the “Combined
high renewables and efficiency” case are projected to be 2.8% below Baseline levels.
This decrease is even more pronounced in the long run (-19.9% in 2030). As was the case
in the “Energy efficiency” case, beyond 2010 total energy consumption declines not only
relative to Baseline but also in absolute terms (-0.7% pa in 2010-2030) reaching -2.5%
from 1990 levels by 2030. In 2030, total energy requirements would be -2.5% lower than
they had been in 1990. This compares to a decline of -0.9% in 1990-2030 achieved in the
“Energy efficiency” case reflecting the higher transformation efficiency of e.g. wind in
power generation.

25

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 4.

39

Table 1.4-1: Primary Energy Demand in EU-25 in the “Combined high renewables
and efficiency” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1

2010
246.0
637.7
417.8
248.8
209.2
1761.6
1543.0
218.6
3524.1
2990.7
533.4

% change from baseline
2020
156.9
574.9
413.7
161.5
324.9
1633.4
1411.1
222.4
2968.8
2543.3
425.5

2030
124.5
529.8
394.3
73.5
393.7
1517.5
1293.1
224.4
2669.5
2300.1
369.4

2010
-14.2
-4.6
-9.6
0.0
45.5
-2.8
-2.8
-3.1
-9.2
-9.1
-9.8

2020
-39.5
-14.2
-21.9
-29.4
66.2
-13.4
-13.1
-15.0
-24.4
-23.0
-32.2

Lower energy requirements combined with additional policies and measures for
renewables allow for a growth of the renewables share in primary energy needs at rates
above those projected in the “High renewables” case, despite the less pronounced growth
of renewables consumption in absolute terms (reaching 394 Mtoe in 2030 compared to
446 Mtoe in the “High renewables” case). Thus, in 2010 renewables are projected to
account for 11.9% of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system, a share rising to
19.9% in 2020 and reaching 25.9% in 2030 (from 11.6%, 19.3% and 24%, respectively,
in the “High renewables” case). Demand for all other energy forms is projected to decline
from Baseline levels with the impacts in the short run being more pronounced for solids
and natural gas (-14.2% and -9.6% respectively from Baseline levels in 2010). In the
long run, nuclear energy (-65.1% from Baseline levels in 2030) and solids (-57.5%)
decline most following strong combined policies on energy efficiency and renewables.
The more than pronounced decline in nuclear, following a substantial reduction in
electricity demand, limits the share of carbon free energy forms in primary energy needs
to 30.8% in 2030 (from 26% in 2010 and 29.8% in 2020). In the “High renewables” case
the share of carbon free energy forms increased from 25.3% in 2010 up to 29.8% in 2020
and 31.5% in 2030.
Carbon intensity of the EU-25 energy system improves by 6.6% from Baseline levels in
2010, 12.8% in 2020 and 15.7% in 2030 as a result of the changes in the fuel mix
occurring in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” cases. This, in combination
to the much lower energy requirements in the EU-25 energy system leads to a strong
decline of CO2 emissions which are projected to reach -9.2% from Baseline levels in
2010 and -32.5% in 2030. Compared to 1990 levels, CO2 emissions are reduced by -6.7%
in 2010, by -21.4% in 2020 and by -29.3% in 2030. This illustrates clearly that pursuing
simultaneously strong policies towards energy efficiency and renewables allows for a
much more favourable development of CO2 emissions, especially in the long run.

40

2030
-57.5
-17.3
-23.9
-65.1
70.5
-19.9
-19.6
-21.7
-32.5
-30.5
-42.6

Figure 1.4-1: Changes in primary energy demand by renewable energy form in EU-25
(diff. from Baseline in Mtoe) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
140.0

120.0

100.0

127.0

Biomass & Waste
Hydro
Wind
Geothermal
Solar and others

98.1

80.0

60.0
47.2
40.0

20.0
1.7

6.3

12.7

9.6

13.1
4.3

1.8

1.3

0.6

18.2

15.6

0.0
2010

2020

2030

Source: PRIMES.

Biomass and waste have a predominant role in the increase of the renewables share
accounting for 72% and 78% of incremental renewables demand in 2010 and 2030,
respectively (see Figure 1.4-1). Geothermal heat also increases substantially (+317%
from Baseline levels in 2030), followed by solar energy (+99% in 2030) and wind energy
(+34.6% in 2030), while hydro exhibits a limited growth on top of Baseline levels in the
short to medium term, reaching a levels almost identical to those of the Baseline scenario
in the long run.
Table 1.4-2: Import dependency in EU-25 in the “Combined high renewables and
efficiency” case
%
Solid fuels
Liquid fuels
Natural gas
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
30.8
76.4
49.6
47.2
49.5
30.1

2010
43.8
83.0
59.9
51.4
53.3
37.7

2020
49.9
91.9
76.5
57.7
59.7
44.7

2030
55.8
92.8
80.2
59.2
61.3
46.1

percentage points difference
from baseline
2010
2020
2030
-2.3
0.4
-3.2
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-2.8
-5.0
-4.3
-3.7
-5.8
-5.7
-3.3
-5.7
-5.5
-6.4
-7.3
-7.7

Finally, in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, the EU-25 energy
system import dependency is also projected to improve from Baseline levels being
limited to 51.4% in 2010 (-3.7 percentage points from Baseline levels) and 59.2% in
2030 from 64.9% in the Baseline scenario (see Table 1.4-2).
1.4.2.2. Final energy demand
In the presence of policies towards energy efficiency, energy requirements in the demand
side decline substantially from Baseline levels; up to -15.6% in 2030 (see Table 1.4-3).
With the drivers being the same as those discussed in the “Energy efficiency” case the
highest energy intensity gains are projected for the tertiary sector (-32.3% from Baseline
levels in 2030) followed by the residential sector, the transport sector and industry.

41

Table 1.4-3: Final Energy Demand and CO2 emission by Sector in EU-25 in the
“Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
Mtoe
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS

Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transports
Total
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

% change from baseline

2000
330.1
273.3
159.0
333.0
1095.4
970.7
124.7

2010
2020
356.7
373.0
303.2
278.8
175.0
164.0
373.0
367.8
1207.9
1183.5
1061.0
1026.4
146.9
157.1
Mt CO2 emissions

2030
384.7
260.3
152.6
358.5
1156.1
990.8
165.2

2010
2020
2030
0.1
-2.5
-1.8
-2.8
-17.7
-25.9
-7.1
-22.6
-32.3
-2.1
-9.3
-10.9
-2.4
-11.6
-15.6
-2.4
-11.1
-14.9
-2.9
-14.3
-20.0
% change from baseline

2000
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9
2234.3
1985.3
249.0

2010
554.2
465.1
246.7
1028.3
2294.3
2021.7
272.6

2030
534.4
370.0
221.0
856.8
1982.2
1704.2
278.1

2010
-3.9
-3.6
-5.8
-4.3
-4.3
-4.4
-3.2

2020
542.6
411.7
232.8
930.8
2117.9
1842.1
275.8

2020
-8.8
-16.8
-15.6
-16.6
-14.6
-14.8
-13.7

However, while in the “Energy efficiency” case a worsening of carbon intensity from
Baseline levels was projected for the demand side, in the “Combined high renewables
and efficiency” case supporting policies for renewable energy forms allow for an
improvement of carbon intensity compared to the Baseline scenario leading to a
reduction of CO2 emissions at rates higher than the decrease of final energy demand (up
to -18.5% in 2030). The higher penetration of biomass and waste in the demand side,
including the increased share of biofuels used in the transport sector, more than
counterbalances the declining energy requirements for electricity and distributed steam,
which are carbon free energies at the point of use (see Figure 1.4-2).
Figure 1.4-2: Changes in final energy demand by fuel in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline
in Mtoe) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
60.0
47.1
38.0

40.0
22.0

20.0
0.0
-20.0

0.6

1.2

0.6
-0.7
-4.2
-11.1 -12.2

-1.5
-6.8

-2.1
-14.1

-24.5
-40.0
-44.4
-60.0
-80.0
-100.0

-56.4
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Heat
Solids
Other
Biomass & Waste

-85.0

-54.3

-86.7
-104.9

-120.0
2010
Source: PRIMES.

42

2020

2030

2030
-6.2
-24.0
-21.6
-21.6
-18.5
-18.4
-18.8

In 2030, biomass and waste account for close to 10% of energy requirements in the
demand side (+5 percentage points from Baseline levels), an increase in market share that
occurs mainly to the detriment of electricity (-3 percentage points from Baseline levels in
2030) and liquids (-2 percentage points). In the presence of energy efficiency measures,
solar energy is projected to make significantly slower inroads than in the “High
renewables” case given lower electricity demand (+16.6% from Baseline levels in 2030
from +45.5% in 2010, with the corresponding figures in the “High renewables” case
being +88.5% in 2010 and +632% in 2030). The share of biofuels increases significantly
reaching 6.4% of gasoline and diesel used in the transport sector, and 20.9% in 2030
(from 6.4% in 2010 and 19.1 in 2030 for the “High renewables” case). This is also
reflected on the evolution of CO2 emissions in the transport sector, which decline at rates
well above the corresponding decline in energy requirements (with a percentage decrease
of CO2 from Baseline almost twice as high in 2030). A carbon intensity improvement is
also projected for industrial sectors (driven by the above mentioned higher exploitation
of biomass and waste options) with CO2 emissions in 2030 declining by -6.2% from
Baseline levels compared to a decline of energy demand by -1.8%. On the contrary, in
the tertiary and the residential sector carbon intensity worsens from Baseline levels as the
decline in electricity requirements is not counterbalanced by the further deployment of
solar energy in these sectors.
1.4.2.3. Electricity and steam generation
In the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case electricity production is
projected to decline by -4.8% from Baseline levels in 2010 and -26.3% in 2030, a decline
driven by the exploitation of energy efficiency options in the demand side. In
combination to policies promoting renewable energy forms the structure of the power
generation sector of the EU-25 energy system undergoes significant changes in
comparison to the Baseline scenario (see Figure 1.4-3).
Figure 1.4-3: Changes in electricity generation by energy form in EU-25 (diff. from
Baseline in TWh) in the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
2010

2020

2030

600
369

400
270
200

153

148

74 89 31

66

43

0
-200

-159 -202

-169

-260

-400
-503

-600
-800
-1000
-1200

Solids
Gas
Nuclear
Wind energy
Biomass-waste
Hydro and other renewables
Oil
Total

-439

-452

-532
-756

-794

-1149

-1400
Source: PRIMES.

Renewable electricity accounts for 24.8% of total electricity generation in 2010 with its
share rising to a remarkable 55.7% in 2030 (+6.8 and +28.1 percentage points from

43

Baseline levels respectively, +1.4 and +10.1 percentage points from “High renewables”
case levels respectively). Solar and wind would account for 20.1% of electricity
generation in 2030 with 35.6% covered by biomass, waste, geothermal and hydro.
Biomass and waste account for 46% of incremental renewables electricity compared to
the Baseline in 2010, a share increasing to 63% in 2030. The corresponding shares for
wind energy are 38% in 2010 and 26% in 2030, whereas some significant inroads are
also projected for geothermal heat in the short to medium term and solar energy in the
long run.
Electricity generation from fossil fuels is strongly affected. The most pronounced impact
in the short run is projected for natural gas (share declining by -4.7 percentage points
from Baseline levels in 2010), the corresponding decline for solids reaching -3.5
percentage points. In the long run the share of solid fuels in total electricity generation is
limited to 12.7% in 2030 (-14.8 percentage points from Baseline levels) with that of gas
reaching 17.9% (-5.3 percentage points from Baseline levels). As regards nuclear energy,
lower electricity requirements in 2010 lead to an increase of its share in total electricity
generation from 27.7% in the Baseline scenario up to 29.1% in the “Combined high
renewables and efficiency” case. In the long run this trend is reversed, with electricity
generation from nuclear power plants in 2030 reaching only 8.9% of total electricity
generation compared to 18.7% in the Baseline scenario.
Cogeneration of electricity and steam is also favoured in the “Combined high renewables
and efficiency” case with electricity generation from cogeneration units reaching 19.4%
in 2010 (+1.4 percentage points from Baseline levels) and 35.8% in 2030 (+11.5
percentage points).
Table 1.4-4: Installed capacity by plant type in EU-25 in the “Combined high
renewables and efficiency” case
change from baseline
(in GW)

GW installed

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy (excl. biomass-waste)
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Lakes
Run of river
Wind power
Wind on-shore
Wind off-shore
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
Solids fired
Oil fired
Gas fired
Natural gas
Derived gasses
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel cells
Geothermal heat
Total
EU-15
NMS
of which CHP
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
141.1
110.1
97.2
52.2
45.0
12.8
12.8
0.0
0.2
0.0
410.5
188.9
74.3
131.9
119.2
12.7
14.5
0.0
1.0
661.7
588.1
73.7
113.0
88.5
24.4

2010
136.4
215.3
106.9
57.4
49.5
106.5
93.3
13.2
1.7
0.2
471.0
152.5
61.8
219.1
207.3
11.8
34.1
0.0
3.6
822.7
735.4
87.4
149.3
122.7
26.6

2020
105.8
312.7
110.5
58.8
51.7
190.1
140.2
50.0
11.7
0.4
476.4
91.4
48.0
233.5
223.9
9.6
98.3
0.0
5.3
895.0
795.9
99.1
195.3
165.5
29.7

2030
40.4
403.9
112.6
59.2
53.4
252.1
164.2
87.9
38.7
0.4
515.1
90.9
39.6
233.6
226.7
6.8
145.0
0.0
6.0
959.4
834.2
125.2
241.1
196.5
44.6

2010
0.0
31.1
3.0
1.4
1.6
28.1
23.2
4.9
0.0
0.0
-19.1
-4.1
-4.3
-26.3
-26.3
0.0
13.4
0.0
2.2
12.0
11.0
1.0
-1.6
-2.0
0.4

2020
-11.1
71.2
1.9
1.0
0.9
62.5
31.2
31.3
6.8
0.0
-108.1
-65.4
0.1
-87.7
-87.8
0.1
41.2
0.0
3.7
-48.0
-32.6
-15.4
-13.7
-10.0
-3.7

2030
-60.8
97.9
0.4
0.7
-0.3
69.2
25.6
43.6
28.4
0.0
-174.5
-120.3
4.7
-126.6
-125.2
-1.3
63.4
0.0
4.4
-137.3
-95.8
-41.5
-6.9
2.5
-9.4

Total installed capacity is projected to reach 960 GW in 2030 (137 GW or 12.5% lower
than in the Baseline scenario). The significantly less pronounced decline compared to

44

that of electricity generation (-26.3% from Baseline levels) reflects the higher
deployment of renewables capacity (involving lower utilisation rates). As illustrated in
Table 1.4-4, renewables capacity increases on top of Baseline levels to reach close to 550
GW in 2030 (including biomass-waste fired power plants) or 57.2% of total installed
capacity. The most pronounced growth on top of Baseline levels is projected for wind
turbines with their capacity exceeding 250 GW in 2030 (+69 GW from Baseline levels).
Capacities of solid fired and gas fired power plants exhibit a similar decline in absolute
terms from Baseline levels in the long run (-120 GW and -127 GW respectively)
remaining rather stable at 2020 levels in the horizon to 2030. Nuclear capacity exhibits a
strong decline from Baseline levels in the long run being limited to 40 GW in 2030
(4.2% of total installed capacity from 9.2% in the Baseline scenario).
The stronger penetration of renewable energy forms in the power generation sector in
combination to the adoption of more efficient power generation technologies leads to an
improvement of the overall power generation efficiency with fuel input in power plants
declining at rates well above those of electricity generation over the projection period
(see Table 1.4-5). Overall power generation efficiency is projected to reach 53.5% in
2030 (from 48.6% in the Baseline scenario), with the efficiency of thermal power plants
reaching 46% in 2030 compared to 47.5% in the Baseline as biomass and waste fired
power plants remain less efficient than those that they replace in the presence of policies
promoting renewable energy forms. Consumption of biomass and waste in power
generation increases by 60% in 2010 and 92.5% in 2030. The most pronounced decline
from Baseline levels is projected for solid fuels (reaching -68% in 2030) whereas
transformation input of gas declines at slower rates (-38% in 2030). Nuclear fuel also
declines substantially in the long run reaching -65% from Baseline levels in 2030.
Table 1.4-5: Fuel input in the EU-25 power generation sector in the “Combined high
renewables and efficiency” case
Mtoe
Solids
Oil products
Gas
Biomass-waste
Nuclear energy
Geothermal heat
Total
EU15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
214.5
41.9
105.5
21.2
237.7
2.9
623.7
542.2
81.5
1250.0
997.8
252.2

2010
177.0
31.8
121.2
46.7
248.8
13.3
638.8
550.0
88.8
1100.4
866.3
234.1

% change from baseline
2020
99.3
21.4
122.6
101.0
161.5
20.3
526.1
441.8
84.2
759.8
625.6
134.2

2030
77.2
22.5
97.0
133.7
73.5
23.5
427.4
350.6
76.8
614.7
534.6
80.2

2010
-17.6
0.6
-20.7
60.3
0.0
261.2
-6.2
-6.4
-5.1
-17.1
-17.9
-14.1

2020
-50.0
-8.0
-32.9
88.4
-29.4
339.5
-23.9
-24.4
-21.3
-41.7
-39.2
-51.2

1.4.2.4. CO2 emissions and concluding remarks
Lower electricity and steam requirements combined with changes in the fuel mix of the
EU-25 power generation sector lead to CO2 emissions reductions from the power
generation sector of -17.1% from Baseline levels in 2010 up to -55.9% in 2030.
Improvements in terms of carbon intensity in electricity and steam generation reach
14.9% from Baseline levels in 2010 and 45.3% in 2030. In 2010 the supply side accounts
for 72% of total CO2 emissions reduction achieved from Baseline levels, a share
dropping to 65% by 2030 (see Figure 1.4-4).

45

2030
-67.9
13.7
-37.6
92.5
-65.1
347.4
-39.0
-39.9
-34.8
-55.9
-52.5
-70.1

Figure 1.4-4: Changes in CO2 emissions in EU-25 (diff. from Baseline in Mt CO2) in
the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0
-102
-200
-256
-400

-233
-361

-363

-358

-426

-600

-449

-596
-594

-800

-770
-836

-1000

-1200

-960
Demand side
Supply side
Total

-1196
-1286

-1400
Source: PRIMES.

Total CO2 emissions decrease substantially in the “Energy efficiency and high
renewables case”. In 2010 they are 7% lower than they had been in 1990, while the
reduction below the 1990 level amounts to even 29% in 2030.
Concluding, the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case reveals a much more
favourable EU-25 energy system outlook with energy requirements declining by 2030 to
levels slightly below those observed in 1990. CO2 emissions, too, remain well below
1990 levels over the projection period (-6.7% in 2010, -21.4% in 2020 and -29.3% in
2030) contributing substantially to Kyoto objectives for 2010 and possibly more
ambitious ones for later periods. Furthermore, in the “Combined high renewables and
efficiency” case import dependency also improves from Baseline levels reaching 59.2%
in 2030 (5.7 percentage points below Baseline levels).

1.4.3. “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” scenario
results for EU-2526
The “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case combines the
assumptions of the “Energy efficiency” case with those of the “12% renewables share in
2010” case in the same manner as that described for the “Combined high renewables and
efficiency” case.
In the presence of policies towards energy efficiency, overall primary energy needs in the
EU-25 energy system decline substantially from Baseline levels (see Table 1.4-6).
Demand for renewable energy forms exhibits a strong growth on top of baseline levels
over the projection period (+43.8% in 2010, +49.4% in 2030), while a decline of energy
requirements for all other energy forms is projected. In the short term, the most

26

Aggregate results by group of countries (EU-25, EU-15, NMS, EU-27, EU28 and Europe-30) can be found in
Appendix 5.

46

pronounced changes occur in the use of solid fuels and natural gas (-13.8% and -9.1 %
from Baseline levels in 2010 respectively). In 2030 the use of nuclear energy declines by
-59.1% from Baseline levels followed by solid fuels (-54.0% in 2030). Close to 73% of
additional renewable energy requirements are satisfied by biomass/waste in 2010, a share
further growing to 75% in 2030.
Table 1.4-6: Evolution of primary energy needs in the EU-25 energy system in the
“Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case
Mtoe
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable En. Sources
Total
EU-15
NMS
Mt CO2 emitted
EU-15
NMS
Source: PRIMES.

2000
306.5
634.7
376.3
237.7
96.5
1653.8
1456.9
196.9
3674.1
3127.0
547.1

2010
247.3
637.7
420.4
248.8
206.8
1763.0
1544.2
218.8
3535.0
3000.3
534.7

% change from baseline
2020
164.1
587.8
421.8
175.9
291.3
1642.5
1419.9
222.6
3055.0
2615.4
439.5

2030
134.9
550.0
405.8
86.1
344.8
1523.5
1299.6
223.9
2797.8
2398.6
399.2

2010
-13.8
-4.6
-9.1
0.0
43.8
-2.7
-2.7
-3.0
-8.9
-8.8
-9.5

2020
-36.8
-12.3
-20.4
-23.0
49.0
-12.9
-12.6
-14.9
-22.2
-20.8
-30.0

In 2010, the share of renewable energy forms in total primary energy needs increases
from 7.9% in the Baseline scenario to 11.7% in the “Combined 12% renewables share in
2010 and efficiency” case. By 2030, the renewables share reaches 22.6% (+10.5
percentage points above Baseline levels). Lower energy requirements in combination to
the higher exploitation of renewable energy sources limits CO2 emissions in the
“Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” case at -9% from Baseline
levels in 2010 and -29% in 2030. In addition import dependency also improves, reaching
61.1% in 2030 (from 64.9% in the Baseline scenario.
In the demand side, energy requirements decline by -2.4% from Baseline levels in 2010,
reaching -15.6% in 2030. Policies stimulating the use of renewable energy lead to
changes in the fuel mix with higher use of biomass and waste and to a less extent solar
energy occurring to the detriment of all other energy forms. Furthermore, the share of
biofuels in gasoline and diesel demand increases significantly from Baseline levels to
reach 6.4% in 2010 and 14.3% in 2030 (+2.5 and +6.1 percentage points respectively
from Baseline levels). As a combined effect of the above changes CO2 emissions in the
demand side are projected to decline from Baseline levels by -4.1% in 2010 and by 15.9% in 2030. Industry and the transport sector exhibit strong improvements of carbon
intensity on top of Baseline levels, whereas a worsening of carbon intensity is projected
for the tertiary and the residential sector due to the much lower demand for electricity (a
carbon free energy form for the demand side).
Significant changes also occur in the electricity and steam generation sector. Renewable
energy forms increase their market share to the detriment of gas and solid fuels, while
overall electricity generation declines significantly from Baseline levels (-4.7% in 2010, 25.8% in 2030). Nuclear energy is also strongly affected in the long run. The most
pronounced growth above Baseline levels in relative terms is projected for solar energy
and geothermal heat with electricity generation from these energy forms in 2030
exceeding Baseline levels by +140% and +263%, respectively. Electricity generation
from biomass and waste exhibits the highest growth in absolute terms (+98.2% in 2010,
+86.2% in 2030), whereas electricity generation from wind energy is projected to
increase by +37.5% in 2010 and +25.2% in 2030. Natural gas and solid fuels are mostly
affected in the short term, with electricity generation from these energy forms declining
by -22.6% and -18.7% respectively in 2010. In 2030 electricity generation from nuclear
energy is -59% lower than in the Baseline scenario, whereas the corresponding decline

47

2030
-54.0
-14.1
-21.6
-59.1
49.4
-19.6
-19.2
-21.9
-29.3
-27.6
-38.0

for solids fired electricity reaches -61.6% and that of gas fired electricity -37.8%. Thus,
the renewables share in electricity generation increases to 24.6% in 2010 (from 18.1% in
the Baseline) and 51.0% in 2030 (from 27.6% in the Baseline). In 2030, 17.7% of
electricity would come from wind and solar, while biomass, waste, geothermal and hydro
would contribute 33.4%
CO2 emissions in the power generation sector decline by -16.6% from Baseline levels in
2010 and -51.4% in 2030 clearly illustrating the strong changes that take place in this
sector in the presence of strong policies promoting energy efficiency and renewable
energy forms. Thus, CO2 emissions reduction from Baseline levels in the supply side
accounts for 71.6% of total CO2 emissions reduction in 2010 and 66.6% in 2030. In the
“Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency” CO2 emissions in absolute
terms exhibit a continuous decline from 1990 levels in the period to 2030 (-6.4% in 2010,
-19.1% in 2020 and -25.9% in 2030).
Concluding, as was the case for the “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, the
combination of strong policies towards energy efficiency and the promotion of renewable
energy forms allows for a reduction of overall energy requirements in the horizon to
2030 slightly below 1990 levels, and a favourable development for CO2 emissions
(remaining below 1990 levels from 2010 onwards., In addition, there is a significant
reduction of the EU-25 energy import dependency from Baseline levels (61% instead of
65% in 2030).

48

Glossary
Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed
or produced (t of CO2/tonne of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh)
Clean coal units: A number of innovative, new technologies designed to use coal in a
more efficient and cost-effective manner while enhancing environmental protection.
Among the most promising technologies are fluidised-bed combustion (PFBC),
integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), coal liquefaction and coal gasification.
CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 by weight emitted per unit of GDP (carbon
intensity of GDP - t of CO2/MEuro'00).
Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a common energy source to produce both
electricity and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel efficiency (see also: CHP).
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A technology which combines gas
turbines and steam turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same
plant. The gas turbine (usually fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical power,
which drives the generator, and heat in the form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed
to a boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a conventional steam turbine, which
is also connected to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional
electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine.
Combined Heat and Power: This means cogeneration of useful heat and power
(electricity) in a single process. In contrast to conventional power plants that convert only
a limited part of the primary energy into electricity with the remainder of this energy
being discharged as waste heat. CHP makes use of large parts of this energy for e.g.
industrial processes, district heating, and space heating. CHP therefore improves energy
efficiency (see also: cogeneration thermal plant).
Efficiency for thermal electricity production: A measure of the efficiency of
converting a fuel to electricity and useful heat; heat and electricity output divided by the
calorific value of input fuel times 100 (for expressing this ratio in percent).
Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in freight
transport is computed on the basis of energy use per tonne-km. Given the existence of
inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics, absolute numbers (especially at
the level of individual Member States) might be misleading in some cases. For that
reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in certain cases.
Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in
passenger transport is computed on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled.
Issues related to consistency of transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger
transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight transport).
Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in refineries, electricity and steam
generation and in other transformation processes; it does not include the energy input for
transformation as such.
Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity
Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, non-ferrous, chemicals, non-metallic
minerals, and paper and pulp industries.
Final energy demand: Energy finally consumed in the transport, industrial, household
and tertiary sectors with tertiary comprising services and agriculture. It excludes
deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power plants) and to the energy
branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above final demand sectors.

49

Freight transport activity: Expressed in tonne kilometres (1 Gtkm = 109 tkm); one tkm
= one tonne transported a distance of one km. It should be noted that inland navigation
includes both waterborne inland transport activity and domestic sea shipping. However,
international short sea shipping is not included in the above category as, according to
EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device converting
hydrogen and oxygen into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The fuel cell
provides a direct current voltage that can be used to power various electrical devices
including motors and lights.
Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in electricity, CHP plants and heat plants.
Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, coke-oven gas and gasworks gas.
Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of a generator, prime mover, or other
electric power production equipment under specific conditions designated by the
manufacturer.
Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover is a steam turbine. The turbine is
driven either by steam produced from hot water or by natural steam that derives its
energy from heat in rocks or fluids beneath the surface of the earth. The energy is
extracted by drilling and/or pumping.
Gross Inland Consumption: Quantity of energy consumed within the borders of a
country. It is calculated as primary production + recovered products + imports +/- stock
changes – exports – bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied to sea-going ships).
Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity indicator calculated as the ratio of
total energy consumption to GDP – (toe/MEuro'00).
Hydro power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of moving water. For the
purposes of these energy balance projections, hydro excludes pumped storage plants that
generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously pumped into an
elevated storage reservoir during off-peak periods when excess generating capacity is
available.
Non fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy sources.
Non-energy uses: Non-energy consumption of energy carriers in petrochemicals and
other sectors, such as chemical feedstocks, lubricants and asphalt for road construction.
Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated,
controlled, and sustained at a specific rate. They include new nuclear designs (such as the
EPR as well as the AP1000 and AP600) with passive safety features (which reduce core
fusion probability from 10-5/year of existing nuclear plants to less than 5.10-7/year).
Oil: Includes refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil,
crude oil, naphtha and feedstocks.
Open cycle units: A turbine connected to an electrical generator. Less efficient than a
combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) because it does not recover and use the heat of the
exhaust gases. Open cycle units include polyvalent units, monovalent coal-lignite units,
monovalent oil-gas units and monovalent biomass-waste units.
Passenger transport activity: Expressed in passenger kilometres (1 Gpkm = 109 pkm);
one pkm relates to one person travelling a distance of one km. Passenger transport
activity includes energy consuming passenger transport on roads (public and private), by
rail, in airplanes and on ships as far as this takes place on rivers, canals, lakes and as
domestic sea shipping; international short sea shipping is not included as, according to

50

EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Primary production: Total indigenous production.
Renewable energy sources: Energy resources that are naturally replenishing but flowlimited. They are virtually inexhaustible in duration but limited in the amount of energy
that is available per unit of time. Renewable energy resources include: biomass, hydro,
wind, geothermal, solar, wave and tidal energy.
Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of radiant energy from the
sun; includes solar thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar energy into
electricity) plants.
Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and lignite) and derived fuels (patent
fuels, coke, tar, pitch and benzol).
Supercritical polyvalent units: A power plant for which the evaporator part of the
boiler operates at pressures above 22.1 MegaPascals (MPa). The cycle-medium in this
case is a single phase fluid with homogenous properties and thus there is no need to
separate steam from water in a drum, allowing for higher efficiency in power generation.
Thermal power plants: Type of electric generating station in which the source of energy
for the prime mover is heat.
Wind power plant: Typically a group of wind turbines interconnected to a common
utility system through a system of transformers, distribution lines, and (usually) one
substation. Operation, control, and maintenance functions are often centralised through a
network of computerised monitoring systems, supplemented by visual inspection.

51

52

APPENDIX 1: “Energy efficiency” case results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

53

EU25: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101

898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322

826724
152787
116792
170188
248776
138180
29457
89092
14042
1420
4168

632443
106879
51713
98046
200621
175184
31220
115156
21454
2323
5031

552129
88247
43185
78730
137079
204888
33165
133730
29483
3445
5066

-9693
-1740
-386
-1990
0
-5576
-421
-3316
-1744
-70
-25

-74078
-24203
-1246
-303
-28018
-20309
-983
-14035
-4788
-423
-79

-132973
-31950
-264
-1076
-73729
-25954
-716
-15150
-8458
-949
-680

-1.2
-1.1
-0.3
-1.2
0.0
-3.9
-1.4
-3.6
-11.0
-4.7
-0.6

-10.5
-18.5
-2.4
-0.3
-12.3
-10.4
-3.1
-10.9
-18.2
-15.4
-1.6

-19.4
-26.6
-0.6
-1.3
-35.0
-11.2
-2.1
-10.2
-22.3
-21.6
-11.8

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181

801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144

991733
126411
586374
547910
38464
276720
2228

1082122
107422
607844
578465
29378
364765
2090

1046818
104551
582006
558641
23364
358144
2117

-32542
-5876
-13324
-13447
123
-13333
-9

-149569
-20972
-62021
-58210
-3812
-66545
-31

-218749
-68368
-70444
-67609
-2835
-79852
-85

-3.2
-4.4
-2.2
-2.4
0.3
-4.6
-0.4

-12.1
-16.3
-9.3
-9.1
-11.5
-15.4
-1.5

-17.3
-39.5
-10.8
-10.8
-10.8
-18.2
-3.9

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855

1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499

1770297
279198
655008
446908
248776
2228
138180

1661689
214302
606681
462811
200621
2090
175184

1543515
192799
569759
436874
137079
2117
204888

-42235
-7617
-13710
-15323
0
-9
-5576

-223647
-45175
-63267
-66848
-28018
-31
-20309

-351722
-100318
-70707
-80928
-73729
-85
-25954

-2.3
-2.7
-2.1
-3.3
0.0
-0.4
-3.9

-11.9
-17.4
-9.4
-12.6
-12.3
-1.5
-10.4

-18.6
-34.2
-11.0
-15.6
-35.0
-3.9
-11.2

27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4

18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8

15.8
37.0
25.2
14.1
7.8

12.9
36.5
27.9
12.1
10.5

12.5
36.9
28.3
8.9
13.3

-0.1
0.1
-0.3
0.3
-0.1

-0.9
1.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.2

-3.0
3.1
1.0
-2.2
1.1

-0.3
0.3
-1.0
2.4
-1.6

-6.3
2.7
-0.9
-0.4
1.7

-19.2
9.2
3.6
-20.2
9.0

2455674
780056
272788
1402830

2900835
921193
359249
1620392

3364410
964265
507374
1892770

3366592
777609
616752
1972232

3323947
531312
737048
2055587

-118776
0
-25169
-93606

-639183 -1042652
-108598 -285779
-67099 -106676
-463486 -650197

-3.4
0.0
-4.7
-4.7

-16.0
-12.3
-9.8
-19.0

-23.9
-35.0
-12.6
-24.0

355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0

385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0

414501
208037
31830
143928
27022
3685
0

387048
155934
21930
157839
46737
4608
0

363472
142205
22729
126149
67697
4693
0

-17740
-6913
197
-8899
-2125
0
0

-75723
-42567
-1381
-24892
-6882
0
0

-126566
-98106
2934
-29099
-1727
-568
0

-4.1
-3.2
0.6
-5.8
-7.3
0.0

-16.4
-21.4
-5.9
-13.6
-12.8
0.0

-25.8
-40.8
14.8
-18.7
-2.5
-10.8

797634
642275
2
31035
124322

796450
710448
637
17261
68104

797787
714780
16812
14804
51391

757720
672762
31382
9241
44335

720087
638518
36393
7996
37180

-15110
-14142
19
-446
-542

-66375
-61263
378
-4576
-914

-76978
-69585
18
-6737
-674

-1.9
-1.9
0.1
-2.9
-1.0

-8.1
-8.3
1.2
-33.1
-2.0

-9.7
-9.8
0.1
-45.7
-1.8
-14.9

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

79833

72580

66501

-1664

-8586

-11633

-2.0

-10.6

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107943

111197

112173

96

-3

9

0.1

0.0

0.0

1021913

1095359

1205270

1184217

1155370

-32736

-154287

-215083

-2.6

-11.5

-15.7

341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198

330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020

354118
219619
134500
302314
175858
372980

370498
221969
148529
279923
166051
367745

382274
219584
162689
260045
154639
358412

-2302
-1141
-1161
-9652
-12629
-8153

-11904
-6423
-5481
-58818
-45805
-37760

-9292
-5348
-3944
-91240
-70677
-43875

-0.6
-0.5
-0.9
-3.1
-6.7
-2.1

-3.1
-2.8
-3.6
-17.4
-21.6
-9.3

-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
-26.0
-31.4
-10.9

123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053

56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465

44926
505024
272220
250298
77245
55558

38135
472779
272848
254484
83662
62309

32701
444413
274603
254414
87525
61713

-276
-12318
-6955
-9012
-2932
-1244

-1285
-57117
-36878
-48433
-4029
-6545

-1323
-67423
-46795
-79629
-7800
-12113

-0.6
-2.4
-2.5
-3.5
-3.7
-2.2

-3.3
-10.8
-11.9
-16.0
-4.6
-9.5

-3.9
-13.2
-14.6
-23.8
-8.2
-16.4

3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7

3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9

3775.3
1312.4
120.9
576.3
468.2
246.6
1050.9

3404.1
1089.4
95.7
568.8
414.4
232.9
1002.8

3156.3
962.0
80.1
558.0
372.5
221.1
962.8

-106.6
-49.4
-3.0
-0.7
-14.5
-15.3
-23.7

-524.5
-243.8
-18.2
-26.4
-80.5
-42.9
-112.7

-798.7
-462.1
-19.6
-11.9
-114.2
-60.8
-130.1

-2.7
-3.6
-2.4
-0.1
-3.0
-5.8
-2.2

-13.4
-18.3
-16.0
-4.4
-16.3
-15.6
-10.1

-20.2
-32.4
-19.6
-2.1
-23.5
-21.6
-11.9

100.0

97.3

100.0

90.1

83.6

-2.8

-13.9

-21.2

-2.7

-13.4

-20.2

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

54

EU25: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7

452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2

464.054
10946.8
161.7
3.81
7250
2.13
8.14
344.9
54.5

469.270
13656.3
121.7
3.54
7174
2.05
7.25
249.3
63.1

469.365
16051.4
96.2
3.29
7082
2.04
6.72
196.6
65.5

0.000
0.0
-3.9
-0.09
-256
-0.01
-0.23
-9.7
-0.5

0.000
0.0
-16.4
-0.48
-1362
-0.04
-1.12
-38.4
-0.4

0.000
0.0
-21.9
-0.75
-2221
-0.04
-1.70
-49.8
0.6

0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.3
-3.4
-0.4
-2.7
-2.7
-0.9

0.0
0.0
-11.9
-11.9
-16.0
-1.7
-13.4
-13.4
-0.7

0.0
0.0
-18.6
-18.6
-23.9
-2.0
-20.2
-20.2
0.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4

76.8
77.9
74.2
91.0

64.6
58.3
55.4
71.9

57.1
46.3
43.5
59.6

-0.5
-2.5
-5.3
-2.0

-2.1
-12.3
-15.3
-7.4

-1.4
-16.2
-19.9
-7.3

-0.6
-3.1
-6.7
-2.1

-3.1
-17.4
-21.6
-9.3

-2.4
-26.0
-31.4
-10.9

0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91

0.26
1.94
1.63
1.55
1.40
2.82

0.22
1.87
1.54
1.48
1.40
2.73

0.19
1.83
1.46
1.43
1.43
2.69

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00

-0.01
0.02
-0.02
0.02
0.10
-0.02

-0.04
0.06
0.00
0.05
0.18
-0.03

-0.6
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.9
-0.1

-5.6
1.1
-1.4
1.3
7.7
-0.9

-15.9
3.1
0.3
3.4
14.3
-1.1

661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022

786486
136430
102720
71746
1658
473932
144768
154473
234289
63627
20187
0
1356

805508
108002
106345
108239
4850
478072
201768
122265
259090
48476
46725
0
1517

858206
65240
110586
141356
10364
530661
261321
147480
262992
38993
79720
0
1476

-24021
0
-1214
-6646
0
-16161
-6103
-2063
-11149
-2422
-527
0
0

-137073
-8934
-2272
-19385
0
-106482
-7193
-34540
-62118
546
-10369
0
0

-238086
-35976
-1615
-41575
0
-158919
13321
-63756
-97142
4027
-1881
0
-167

-3.0
0.0
-1.2
-8.5
0.0
-3.3
-4.0
-1.3
-4.5
-3.7
-2.5

-14.5
-7.6
-2.1
-15.2
0.0
-18.2
-3.4
-22.0
-19.3
1.1
-18.2

-21.7
-35.5
-1.4
-22.7
0.0
-23.0
5.4
-30.2
-27.0
11.5
-2.3

0.0

0.0

-10.2

36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7

39.3
48.8
17.9
46.5
28.7
17.8

43.8
47.7
28.2
47.8
23.1
24.7

48.6
44.2
38.4
48.7
16.0
32.7

-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.7
1.0
-0.3

-1.4
-0.8
6.3
2.3
1.0
1.3

1.2
-1.3
14.2
2.4
-2.7
5.1

-0.6
-0.5
0.3
1.6
3.5
-1.5

-3.2
-1.7
29.1
5.0
4.4
5.6

2.4
-2.8
58.3
5.2
-14.6
18.6

5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6

6448.7
495.9
5014.8
447.1
451.2
39.7

7391.4
483.6
5767.0
481.8
613.6
45.4

8101.9
471.9
6327.6
510.8
742.3
49.3

-0.7
0.9
-1.8
0.6
-0.4
0.0

-10.6
3.1
-13.7
3.2
-3.0
-0.1

-28.3
5.1
-31.0
5.2
-7.4
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.1
0.6
-0.2
0.7
-0.5
-0.2

-0.3
1.1
-0.5
1.0
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13897

15751

17261

-1.4

-22.6

-60.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1

2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0

2580.6
1888.8
402.7
289.2

3035.6
2294.7
424.1
316.8

3403.9
2623.2
442.5
338.2

-1.6
-2.4
0.7
0.2

-13.2
-17.0
2.7
1.2

-28.0
-34.2
3.6
2.6

-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1

-0.4
-0.7
0.6
0.4

-0.8
-1.3
0.8
0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

222

212

-0.1

-1.0

-1.7

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714

333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368

372980
6983
169421
135095
8126
47559
5796

367745
5903
163722
142300
6031
43742
6049

358412
4923
152417
142936
5593
46441
6103

-8153
-38
-755
-553
-181
-6615
-12

-37760
-371
-5179
-14531
-487
-17035
-156

-43875
-398
-7434
-21450
-426
-13918
-250

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.2
-12.2
-0.2

-9.3
-5.9
-3.1
-9.3
-7.5
-28.0
-2.5

-10.9
-7.5
-4.7
-13.0
-7.1
-23.1
-3.9

39.3
51.7

39.9
53.9

35.8
55.1

29.6
49.1

25.8
43.9

-1.2
-0.2

-3.1
-4.7

-2.6
-6.0

-3.2
-0.4

-9.3
-8.7

-9.2
-12.1

Source: PRIMES

55

EU15: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101

761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315

701067
67090
114437
164432
231522
123586
27997
76533
13637
1265
4154

523512
44463
49596
92808
183033
153612
29568
96014
20927
2089
5014

446467
32716
41357
73967
119731
178697
31311
110616
28646
3076
5048

-8570
-1169
-380
-1988
0
-5033
-419
-2786
-1744
-60
-25

-56987
-15532
-1232
-227
-24128
-15867
-975
-10210
-4251
-356
-76

-105266
-25901
-241
-1049
-57856
-20219
-703
-11791
-6261
-790
-674

-1.2
-1.7
-0.3
-1.2
0.0
-3.9
-1.5
-3.5
-11.3
-4.5
-0.6

-9.8
-25.9
-2.4
-0.2
-11.6
-9.4
-3.2
-9.6
-16.9
-14.6
-1.5

-19.1
-44.2
-0.6
-1.4
-32.6
-10.2
-2.2
-9.6
-17.9
-20.4
-11.8

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333

741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644

897249
130706
530874
501580
29294
231851
3818

966535
104066
548115
528260
19855
310598
3756

928349
100830
519140
505736
13404
303491
4889

-27176
-4375
-11886
-12252
367
-10910
-5

-128365
-19411
-55448
-52871
-2577
-53488
-18

-182494
-59123
-60278
-59165
-1113
-63020
-72

-2.9
-3.2
-2.2
-2.4
1.3
-4.5
-0.1

-11.7
-15.7
-9.2
-9.1
-11.5
-14.7
-0.5

-16.4
-37.0
-10.4
-10.5
-7.7
-17.2
-1.5

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014

1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491

1551299
197796
598294
396283
231522
3818
123586

1438446
148529
546109
403406
183033
3756
153612

1320740
133546
506420
377458
119731
4889
178697

-35746
-5544
-12266
-12898
0
-5
-5033

-185352
-34944
-56680
-53715
-24128
-18
-15867

-287760
-85025
-60519
-64069
-57856
-72
-20219

-2.3
-2.7
-2.0
-3.2
0.0
-0.1
-3.9

-11.4
-19.0
-9.4
-11.8
-11.6
-0.5
-9.4

-17.9
-38.9
-10.7
-14.5
-32.6
-1.5
-10.2

23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9

14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0

12.8
38.6
25.5
14.9
8.0

10.3
38.0
28.0
12.7
10.7

10.1
38.3
28.6
9.1
13.5

-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.3
-0.1

-1.0
0.8
-0.1
0.0
0.2

-3.5
3.1
1.1
-2.0
1.2

-0.5
0.2
-0.9
2.3
-1.7

-8.6
2.3
-0.4
-0.3
2.3

-25.6
8.8
4.1
-17.9
9.4

2138940
720059
259810
1159070

2576502
863760
343478
1369264

2979330
897389
485670
1596270

2943479
709442
591256
1642782

2870466
464073
705086
1701307

-103420
0
-25145
-78275

-541263
-93519
-60767
-386976

-864979
-224246
-80980
-559753

-3.4
0.0
-4.9
-4.7

-15.5
-11.6
-9.3
-19.1

-23.2
-32.6
-10.3
-24.8

282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0

319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0

341219
151196
29098
133072
24170
3685
0

315566
108669
19901
143235
39154
4608
0

297990
100156
20993
116233
55915
4693
0

-14761
-5159
398
-7863
-2136
0
0

-61658
-34137
-1057
-20618
-5847
0
0

-107572
-84030
3520
-23602
-2892
-568
0

-4.1
-3.3
1.4
-5.6
-8.1
0.0

-16.3
-23.9
-5.0
-12.6
-13.0
0.0

-26.5
-45.6
20.1
-16.9
-4.9
-10.8

704402
595036
2
13085
96279

725664
665476
604
8717
50868

726841
665160
15543
6938
39199

685271
619356
28491
3962
33462

645943
582573
32489
3234
27647

-13108
-12926
17
203
-402

-57581
-55830
298
-1499
-549

-63878
-61039
-31
-2413
-395

-1.8
-1.9
0.1
3.0
-1.0

-7.8
-8.3
1.1
-27.5
-1.6

-9.0
-9.5
-0.1
-42.7
-1.4
-15.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

67507

60496

54575

-1338

-7025

-9633

-1.9

-10.4

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

97149

97788

96796

87

-9

14

0.1

0.0

0.0

866453

970663

1058562

1026722

989851

-28173

-128383

-174075

-2.6

-11.1

-15.0

272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606

284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102

304731
190506
114225
260942
151369
341520

313527
190079
123447
237692
141736
333767

318733
185994
132739
218045
130501
322572

-2038
-1009
-1029
-8179
-10252
-7704

-9531
-5211
-4320
-49306
-35481
-34065

-7400
-4260
-3140
-75069
-53988
-37618

-0.7
-0.5
-0.9
-3.0
-6.3
-2.2

-3.0
-2.7
-3.4
-17.2
-20.0
-9.3

-2.3
-2.2
-2.3
-25.6
-29.3
-10.4

79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865

35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953

28425
461787
238943
225243
57796
46368

24826
425861
235351
225468
63760
51456

20746
395132
233009
223319
66912
50732

-199
-11349
-5723
-7921
-2095
-885

-488
-51395
-30142
-41138
-996
-4223

-866
-58722
-38091
-65777
-2079
-8539

-0.7
-2.4
-2.3
-3.4
-3.5
-1.9

-1.9
-10.8
-11.4
-15.4
-1.5
-7.6

-4.0
-12.9
-14.1
-22.8
-3.0
-14.4

3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5

3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8

3202.4
1025.9
110.1
475.3
414.4
213.3
963.3

2866.8
845.0
86.4
459.1
365.3
199.7
911.2

2641.5
750.0
71.7
439.1
327.0
185.8
868.0

-88.5
-37.8
-2.6
-0.4
-12.8
-12.3
-22.4

-434.3
-191.5
-16.3
-21.5
-69.6
-33.6
-101.8

-669.5
-382.7
-17.8
-12.1
-98.2
-46.8
-111.9

-2.7
-3.6
-2.3
-0.1
-3.0
-5.5
-2.3

-13.2
-18.5
-15.9
-4.5
-16.0
-14.4
-10.0

-20.2
-33.8
-19.9
-2.7
-23.1
-20.1
-11.4

100.0

101.9

104.4

93.4

86.1

-2.9

-14.2

-21.8

-2.7

-13.2

-20.2

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

56

EU15: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5

378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5

390.652
10391.5
149.3
3.97
7627
2.06
8.20
308.2
56.1

397.458
12835.7
112.1
3.62
7406
1.99
7.21
223.3
64.9

398.737
14948.8
88.4
3.31
7199
2.00
6.62
176.7
67.5

0.000
0.0
-3.4
-0.09
-265
-0.01
-0.23
-8.5
-0.4

0.000
0.0
-14.4
-0.47
-1362
-0.04
-1.09
-33.8
-0.5

0.000
0.0
-19.2
-0.72
-2169
-0.06
-1.68
-44.8
0.7

0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.3
-3.4
-0.4
-2.7
-2.7
-0.8

0.0
0.0
-11.4
-11.4
-15.5
-2.0
-13.2
-13.2
-0.7

0.0
0.0
-17.9
-17.9
-23.2
-2.8
-20.2
-20.2
1.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0

84.8
80.6
77.7
90.8

71.2
60.1
57.9
71.9

62.7
47.5
45.4
59.6

-0.6
-2.5
-5.3
-2.0

-2.2
-12.5
-14.5
-7.3

-1.5
-16.4
-18.8
-7.0

-0.7
-3.0
-6.3
-2.2

-3.0
-17.2
-20.0
-9.3

-2.3
-25.6
-29.3
-10.4

0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91

0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92

0.24
1.95
1.56
1.59
1.41
2.82

0.20
1.88
1.46
1.54
1.41
2.73

0.18
1.84
1.38
1.50
1.42
2.69

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00

-0.01
0.01
-0.02
0.02
0.09
-0.02

-0.04
0.04
-0.01
0.05
0.16
-0.03

-0.6
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.9
-0.1

-6.4
0.7
-1.6
1.4
7.0
-0.9

-18.3
2.4
-0.4
3.4
12.9
-1.1

588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022

702705
127644
95906
69487
1645
408023
119053
115160
218267
56542
16698
0
1356

711890
99216
99030
105020
4712
403911
169282
89531
233293
43637
35933
0
1517

732739
56563
102849
136107
9827
427393
206471
102940
228137
35283
59557
0
1476

-21464
0
-1207
-6645
0
-13612
-5646
-1360
-9686
-2439
-127
0
0

-116201
-6982
-2238
-16311
0
-90670
-6267
-27618
-56329
1908
-8631
0
0

-196814
-28105
-1546
-30703
0
-136460
12458
-51245
-87243
5867
-3672
0
-167

-3.0
0.0
-1.2
-8.7
0.0
-3.2
-4.5
-1.2
-4.2
-4.1
-0.8

-14.0
-6.6
-2.2
-13.4
0.0
-18.3
-3.6
-23.6
-19.4
4.6
-19.4

-21.2
-33.2
-1.5
-18.4
0.0
-24.2
6.4
-33.2
-27.7
19.9
-5.8

0.0

0.0

-10.2

36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9

40.2
48.4
16.7
49.1
30.1
19.0

44.8
47.2
26.6
50.2
24.1
26.1

49.1
44.7
35.2
50.8
16.2
34.6

-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.7
1.0
-0.4

-1.5
-0.8
6.2
2.3
1.1
1.3

1.2
-1.2
13.5
3.1
-2.3
5.3

-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
1.3
3.5
-1.8

-3.3
-1.7
30.2
4.9
4.6
5.2

2.4
-2.5
62.4
6.4
-12.3
18.2

4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0

5831.5
423.2
4544.5
396.7
428.0
39.1

6637.2
416.5
5163.4
432.4
580.3
44.7

7206.8
408.6
5587.8
462.0
699.9
48.5

-0.5
0.8
-1.3
0.4
-0.4
0.0

-8.6
2.5
-11.0
2.8
-2.8
-0.1

-22.0
4.1
-23.9
4.9
-6.9
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.1
0.6
-0.2
0.6
-0.5
-0.2

-0.3
1.0
-0.4
1.1
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14928

16699

18074

-1.2

-21.7

-55.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1

1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8

2141.8
1588.9
268.0
284.9

2481.4
1887.7
281.4
312.2

2755.9
2131.7
290.6
333.6

-1.3
-1.3
-0.2
0.2

-10.0
-11.9
0.8
1.1

-20.3
-24.8
1.9
2.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1

-0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.4

-0.7
-1.2
0.7
0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

193

184

-0.1

-0.8

-1.4

-0.1

-0.4

-0.7

252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383

310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314

341520
5924
154529
122708
6957
45662
5739

333767
5047
147720
127847
5159
42004
5989

322572
4258
135955
126998
4849
44470
6042

-7704
-32
-653
-476
-156
-6374
-12

-34065
-310
-4449
-12643
-385
-16122
-155

-37618
-296
-4780
-18715
-285
-13296
-247

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.2
-12.2
-0.2

-9.3
-5.8
-2.9
-9.0
-6.9
-27.7
-2.5

-10.4
-6.5
-3.4
-12.8
-5.5
-23.0
-3.9

41.2
58.0

40.7
58.5

36.4
60.2

30.1
53.9

26.3
48.2

-1.2
-0.2

-3.1
-5.0

-2.5
-6.5

-3.3
-0.3

-9.5
-8.4

-8.7
-11.9

Source: PRIMES

57

NMS: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0

136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8

125656
85697
2355
5757
17254
14594
1460
12559
405
155
15

108930
62416
2117
5238
17587
21572
1652
19143
526
234
17

105662
55531
1829
4762
17348
26192
1854
23113
837
369
18

-1123
-572
-6
-2
0
-543
-2
-530
0
-10
-1

-17091
-8670
-13
-77
-3890
-4441
-8
-3826
-536
-67
-4

-27707
-6049
-23
-27
-15874
-5735
-12
-3360
-2197
-159
-7

-0.9
-0.7
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-3.6
-0.1
-4.1
0.0
-6.1
-4.8

-13.6
-12.2
-0.6
-1.4
-18.1
-17.1
-0.5
-16.7
-50.5
-22.4
-17.7

-20.8
-9.8
-1.2
-0.6
-47.8
-18.0
-0.7
-12.7
-72.4
-30.1
-26.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152

59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500

94484
-4295
55501
46331
9170
44868
-1591

115587
3356
59729
50205
9524
54167
-1665

118469
3722
62866
52905
9961
54654
-2772

-5366
-1501
-1438
-1195
-244
-2423
-4

-21204
-1561
-6573
-5338
-1235
-13057
-13

-36255
-9245
-10166
-8444
-1722
-16832
-13

-5.4
53.8
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-5.1
0.2

-15.5
-31.7
-9.9
-9.6
-11.5
-19.4
0.8

-23.4
-71.3
-13.9
-13.8
-14.7
-23.5
0.5

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841

196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008

218998
81403
56714
50625
17254
-1591
14594

223244
65772
60572
59405
17587
-1665
21572

222775
59253
63338
59416
17348
-2772
26192

-6489
-2073
-1444
-2425
0
-4
-543

-38295
-10231
-6587
-13133
-3890
-13
-4441

-63963
-15294
-10189
-16859
-15874
-13
-5735

-2.9
-2.5
-2.5
-4.6
0.0
0.2
-3.6

-14.6
-13.5
-9.8
-18.1
-18.1
0.8
-17.1

-22.3
-20.5
-13.9
-22.1
-47.8
0.5
-18.0

54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6

46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6

37.2
25.9
23.1
7.9
6.7

29.5
27.1
26.6
7.9
9.7

26.6
28.4
26.7
7.8
11.8

0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.0

0.4
1.5
-1.1
-0.3
-0.3

0.6
2.8
0.1
-3.8
0.6

0.4
0.4
-1.7
3.0
-0.7

1.4
5.7
-4.1
-4.1
-2.8

2.3
10.9
0.3
-32.8
5.6

316734
59996
12978
243760

324333
57434
15771
251128

385080
66876
21704
296500

423113
68167
25495
329450

453481
67239
31961
354280

-15356
0
-24
-15332

-97920
-15079
-6332
-76510

-177673
-61533
-25695
-90444

-3.8
0.0
-0.1
-4.9

-18.8
-18.1
-19.9
-18.8

-28.2
-47.8
-44.6
-20.3

73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0

66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0

73282
56841
2732
10856
2852
0
0

71482
47266
2029
14604
7583
0
0

65482
42049
1736
9916
11781
0
0

-2979
-1754
-201
-1036
12
0
0

-14065
-8430
-324
-4274
-1036
0
0

-18994
-14076
-586
-5497
1165
0
0

-3.9
-3.0
-6.9
-8.7
0.4

-16.4
-15.1
-13.8
-22.6
-12.0

-22.5
-25.1
-25.2
-35.7
11.0

93232
47239
0
17949
28043

70786
44972
33
8544
17236

70946
49620
1269
7866
12191

72448
53405
2891
5279
10873

74144
55945
3904
4762
9533

-2001
-1215
2
-648
-140

-8795
-5433
80
-3077
-365

-13100
-8546
50
-4324
-278

-2.7
-2.4
0.2
-7.6
-1.1

-10.8
-9.2
2.8
-36.8
-3.2

-15.0
-13.3
1.3
-47.6
-2.8
-14.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

12327

12084

11927

-327

-1561

-2000

-2.6

-11.4

10089

10135

10794

13409

15377

9

5

-5

0.1

0.0

0.0

155460

124696

146709

157495

165519

-4563

-25904

-41009

-3.0

-14.1

-19.9

68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592

45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917

49387
29113
20274
41372
24489
31460

56972
31890
25082
42231
24315
33978

63541
33591
29950
42001
24138
35840

-265
-133
-132
-1472
-2376
-450

-2373
-1211
-1162
-9513
-10323
-3695

-1892
-1088
-804
-16171
-16690
-6256

-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-3.4
-8.8
-1.4

-4.0
-3.7
-4.4
-18.4
-29.8
-9.8

-2.9
-3.1
-2.6
-27.8
-40.9
-14.9

44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188

21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512

16500
43236
33277
25055
19449
9190

13308
46918
37497
29016
19902
10853

11956
49281
41594
31095
20613
10980

-77
-969
-1232
-1091
-836
-358

-797
-5721
-6736
-7295
-3033
-2322

-457
-8701
-8704
-13852
-5721
-3574

-0.5
-2.2
-3.6
-4.2
-4.1
-3.8

-5.6
-10.9
-15.2
-20.1
-13.2
-17.6

-3.7
-15.0
-17.3
-30.8
-21.7
-24.6

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2

547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1

572.9
286.6
10.9
100.9
53.7
33.2
87.6

537.3
244.4
9.3
109.6
49.2
33.2
91.5

514.8
212.0
8.4
118.8
45.5
35.3
94.8

-18.1
-11.6
-0.4
-0.3
-1.7
-2.9
-1.3

-90.2
-52.3
-1.9
-4.9
-10.9
-9.4
-10.9

-129.2
-79.4
-1.8
0.2
-16.1
-14.0
-18.3

-3.1
-3.9
-3.3
-0.3
-3.0
-8.1
-1.4

-14.4
-17.6
-17.0
-4.3
-18.1
-22.0
-10.7

-20.1
-27.2
-17.3
0.2
-26.1
-28.4
-16.2

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

81.0

75.9

72.7

-2.6

-12.8

-18.3

-3.1

-14.4

-20.1

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other

Source: PRIMES

58

NMS: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7

74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1

73.401
555.3
394.4
2.98
5246
2.62
7.81
1031.7
42.9

71.813
820.6
272.0
3.11
5892
2.41
7.48
654.8
51.5

70.628
1102.7
202.0
3.15
6421
2.31
7.29
466.9
52.9

0.000
0.0
-11.7
-0.09
-209
-0.01
-0.25
-32.6
-1.1

0.000
0.0
-46.7
-0.53
-1364
0.01
-1.26
-110.0
-0.6

0.000
0.0
-58.0
-0.91
-2516
0.06
-1.83
-117.2
-0.8

0.0
0.0
-2.9
-2.9
-3.8
-0.2
-3.1
-3.1
-2.6

0.0
0.0
-14.6
-14.6
-18.8
0.3
-14.4
-14.4
-1.1

0.0
0.0
-22.3
-22.3
-28.2
2.9
-20.1
-20.1
-1.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9

35.0
55.1
50.3
86.1

27.1
37.7
33.2
62.9

23.3
27.7
23.7
49.4

-0.2
-2.0
-4.9
-1.2

-1.1
-8.5
-14.1
-6.8

-0.7
-10.7
-16.4
-8.6

-0.5
-3.4
-8.8
-1.4

-4.0
-18.4
-29.8
-9.8

-2.9
-27.8
-40.9
-14.9

0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83

0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84

0.41
1.88
2.04
1.30
1.36
2.78

0.32
1.80
1.92
1.16
1.36
2.69

0.26
1.78
1.87
1.08
1.46
2.65

0.00
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00

-0.01
0.06
-0.01
0.00
0.14
-0.03

-0.01
0.12
0.06
0.02
0.26
-0.04

-0.5
0.9
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.0

-2.0
3.3
-0.3
0.4
11.1
-1.0

-4.7
7.3
3.2
2.3
21.2
-1.5

73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0

83781
8786
6813
2259
13
65910
25715
39313
16022
7085
3489
0
0

93618
8786
7315
3218
138
74161
32486
32734
25796
4839
10792
0
0

125467
8677
7736
5249
537
103267
54849
44540
34855
3710
20163
0
0

-2557
0
-7
0
0
-2549
-457
-703
-1464
16
-399
0
0

-20872
-1952
-35
-3074
0
-15812
-926
-6923
-5789
-1363
-1738
0
0

-41271
-7871
-69
-10872
0
-22459
864
-12511
-9899
-1840
1791
0
0

-3.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-3.7
-1.7
-1.8
-8.4
0.2
-10.3

-18.2
-18.2
-0.5
-48.9
0.0
-17.6
-2.8
-17.5
-18.3
-22.0
-13.9

-24.8
-47.6
-0.9
-67.4
0.0
-17.9
1.6
-21.9
-22.1
-33.2
9.8

32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6

34.8
52.5
27.4
25.8
17.4
8.4

39.6
51.6
38.9
31.5
16.1
15.4

46.5
41.3
59.2
35.5
14.8
20.6

-0.4
-0.5
0.7
1.0
0.7
0.4

-1.2
-0.4
7.9
1.2
0.1
1.1

1.3
-2.0
19.3
-2.4
-5.6
3.2

-1.1
-0.9
2.8
4.2
4.0
4.6

-2.9
-0.7
25.6
3.9
0.8
7.4

2.8
-4.5
48.3
-6.3
-27.3
18.3

468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6

617.2
72.7
470.3
50.4
23.2
0.7

754.2
67.1
603.6
49.4
33.3
0.7

895.1
63.3
739.8
48.8
42.4
0.8

-0.2
0.1
-0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0

-2.0
0.6
-2.8
0.4
-0.2
0.0

-6.3
1.0
-7.1
0.3
-0.5
0.0

0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.1

-0.3
0.9
-0.5
0.9
-0.6
-0.2

-0.7
1.6
-0.9
0.6
-1.2
-0.5

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8408

10502

12673

-2.3

-27.3

-89.5

0.0

-0.3

-0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9

305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2

438.8
299.9
134.7
4.3

554.2
407.0
142.7
4.5

648.0
491.5
151.9
4.6

-0.3
-1.1
0.8
0.0

-3.1
-5.1
1.9
0.0

-7.7
-9.4
1.7
0.0

-0.1
-0.4
0.6
0.1

-0.6
-1.2
1.3
0.5

-1.2
-1.9
1.1
0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

790

675

588

-0.5

-3.8

-6.9

-0.1

-0.6

-1.2

20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331

22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54

31460
1058
14892
12386
1169
1897
56

33978
856
16001
14452
871
1737
60

35840
665
16462
15938
744
1971
61

-450
-6
-102
-77
-25
-240
0

-3695
-61
-730
-1887
-102
-913
-1

-6256
-102
-2655
-2735
-141
-621
-3

-1.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.6
-2.1
-11.2
-0.2

-9.8
-6.7
-4.4
-11.6
-10.5
-34.5
-2.2

-14.9
-13.3
-13.9
-14.6
-15.9
-24.0
-4.0

23.9
25.0

31.4
26.7

29.7
29.9

25.1
27.2

21.6
25.4

-0.6
-0.2

-2.2
-3.3

-3.6
-4.1

-1.9
-0.6

-8.2
-10.9

-14.3
-13.8

Source: PRIMES

59

EU27: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101

937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329

868408
164134
123038
182915
253537
144784
31296
93754
14092
1444
4199

674941
118205
57926
109223
206826
182762
33393
120276
21536
2433
5123

594797
99510
49390
88674
143565
213658
35695
139500
29658
3630
5175

-9780
-1741
-386
-1990
0
-5662
-421
-3400
-1744
-71
-27

-76128
-24785
-1246
-303
-28866
-20928
-983
-14546
-4865
-440
-95

-137848
-32014
-264
-1076
-77742
-26752
-716
-15866
-8472
-991
-707

-1.1
-1.0
-0.3
-1.1
0.0
-3.8
-1.3
-3.5
-11.0
-4.7
-0.6

-10.1
-17.3
-2.1
-0.3
-12.2
-10.3
-2.9
-10.8
-18.4
-15.3
-1.8

-18.8
-24.3
-0.5
-1.2
-35.1
-11.1
-2.0
-10.2
-22.2
-21.5
-12.0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321

817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687

1015461
132099
598658
563692
34965
283097
1607

1114348
113688
622046
596550
25496
377061
1553

1087836
113411
598843
579869
18974
373926
1655

-33084
-5879
-13571
-13732
161
-13625
-9

-157467
-23851
-64397
-61039
-3358
-69186
-32

-227493
-71261
-73534
-71303
-2231
-82611
-87

-3.2
-4.3
-2.2
-2.4
0.5
-4.6
-0.6

-12.4
-17.3
-9.4
-9.3
-11.6
-15.5
-2.0

-17.3
-38.6
-10.9
-10.9
-10.5
-18.1
-5.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623

1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405

1835588
296233
673415
466012
253537
1607
144784

1736251
231892
626934
486284
206826
1553
182762

1627002
212921
592602
462600
143565
1655
213658

-42864
-7620
-13958
-15615
0
-9
-5662

-233595
-48636
-65643
-69489
-28866
-32
-20928

-365341
-103275
-73798
-83687
-77742
-87
-26752

-2.3
-2.5
-2.0
-3.2
0.0
-0.6
-3.8

-11.9
-17.3
-9.5
-12.5
-12.2
-2.0
-10.3

-18.3
-32.7
-11.1
-15.3
-35.1
-5.0
-11.1

27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4

18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9

16.1
36.7
25.4
13.8
7.9

13.4
36.1
28.0
11.9
10.5

13.1
36.4
28.4
8.8
13.1

0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.3
-0.1

-0.9
0.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.2

-2.8
3.0
1.0
-2.3
1.1

-0.2
0.3
-1.0
2.3
-1.5

-6.2
2.7
-0.7
-0.4
1.8

-17.5
8.9
3.7
-20.6
8.8

2561205
794718
291642
1474844

2993398
944823
376697
1671878

3480345
982718
529332
1968295

3503755
801659
643005
2059091

3487286
556454
768589
2162243

-121822
0
-25169
-96652

-659954 -1077131
-111887 -301334
-67998 -106840
-480069 -668957

-3.4
0.0
-4.5
-4.7

-15.9
-12.2
-9.6
-18.9

-23.6
-35.1
-12.2
-23.6

384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0

402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0

434621
221235
34071
148158
27473
3685
0

407165
169885
22840
162385
47447
4608
0

383989
158600
22987
129174
68536
4693
0

-17808
-6858
291
-9138
-2103
0
0

-80848
-45662
-1399
-26839
-6948
0
0

-131210
-100637
2851
-31129
-1727
-568
0

-3.9
-3.0
0.9
-5.8
-7.1
0.0

-16.6
-21.2
-5.8
-14.2
-12.8
0.0

-25.5
-38.8
14.2
-19.4
-2.5
-10.8

840016
673728
2
38458
127829

818581
727122
637
19291
71530

823527
736808
16923
14923
54872

785536
697059
31710
9241
47525

751317
665950
37399
7996
39972

-15463
-14426
20
-512
-545

-69423
-64093
386
-4675
-1042

-80820
-73279
29
-6849
-722

-1.8
-1.9
0.1
-3.3
-1.0

-8.1
-8.4
1.2
-33.6
-2.1

-9.7
-9.9
0.1
-46.1
-1.8
-14.6

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

86836

79883

74318

-1750

-9472

-12748

-2.0

-10.6

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

110485

114161

115598

99

-3

9

0.1

0.0

0.0

1071205

1126314

1247594

1236698

1219084

-33566

-160491

-224181

-2.6

-11.5

-15.5

372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091

342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258

371620
231973
139648
313954
178990
383029

393543
237582
155961
292870
169285
381000

412048
239561
172488
273551
157841
375643

-2450
-1229
-1221
-9926
-12910
-8279

-12978
-7189
-5789
-60579
-47461
-39473

-9888
-5771
-4117
-94108
-73861
-46324

-0.7
-0.5
-0.9
-3.1
-6.7
-2.1

-3.2
-2.9
-3.6
-17.1
-21.9
-9.4

-2.3
-2.4
-2.3
-25.6
-31.9
-11.0

128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892

58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802

47009
518972
283656
257349
80811
59797

40078
489919
288686
263623
87524
66868

34853
464764
295115
265748
91838
66765

-310
-12497
-7066
-9237
-3112
-1344

-1532
-59364
-37714
-49859
-5005
-7016

-1637
-70363
-47763
-82145
-9394
-12878

-0.7
-2.4
-2.4
-3.5
-3.7
-2.2

-3.7
-10.8
-11.6
-15.9
-5.4
-9.5

-4.5
-13.1
-13.9
-23.6
-9.3
-16.2

4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0

3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9

3934.8
1384.4
130.5
610.7
479.2
250.2
1079.9

3580.3
1160.6
103.7
610.9
427.5
236.9
1040.7

3354.6
1037.0
84.8
610.1
386.4
225.3
1010.8

-108.0
-49.7
-3.2
-0.9
-14.7
-15.5
-24.0

-551.4
-261.0
-18.1
-28.0
-82.2
-44.2
-117.7

-825.9
-477.4
-19.1
-11.4
-117.1
-63.5
-137.4

-2.7
-3.5
-2.4
-0.2
-3.0
-5.8
-2.2

-13.3
-18.4
-14.9
-4.4
-16.1
-15.7
-10.2

-19.8
-31.5
-18.4
-1.8
-23.3
-22.0
-12.0

100.0

94.8

98.1

89.3

83.7

-2.7

-13.7

-20.6

-2.7

-13.3

-19.8

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

60

EU27: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6

483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7

492.838
11044.1
166.2
3.72
7062
2.14
7.98
356.3
53.9

496.408
13825.4
125.6
3.50
7058
2.06
7.21
259.0
62.3

494.784
16315.6
99.7
3.29
7048
2.06
6.78
205.6
64.7

0.000
0.0
-3.9
-0.09
-247
-0.01
-0.22
-9.8
-0.5

0.000
0.0
-16.9
-0.47
-1329
-0.04
-1.11
-39.9
-0.6

0.000
0.0
-22.4
-0.74
-2177
-0.04
-1.67
-50.6
0.4

0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.3
-3.4
-0.4
-2.7
-2.7
-1.0

0.0
0.0
-11.9
-11.9
-15.9
-1.7
-13.3
-13.3
-0.9

0.0
0.0
-18.3
-18.3
-23.6
-1.7
-19.8
-19.8
0.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7

73.9
78.8
73.0
91.1

62.7
59.3
54.4
72.4

55.9
47.1
42.7
60.5

-0.5
-2.5
-5.3
-2.0

-2.1
-12.3
-15.3
-7.5

-1.3
-16.2
-20.0
-7.5

-0.7
-3.1
-6.7
-2.1

-3.2
-17.1
-21.9
-9.4

-2.3
-25.6
-31.9
-11.0

0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90

0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91

0.27
1.94
1.64
1.53
1.40
2.82

0.22
1.87
1.55
1.46
1.40
2.73

0.19
1.83
1.48
1.41
1.43
2.69

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00

-0.01
0.02
-0.02
0.02
0.10
-0.02

-0.03
0.06
0.01
0.04
0.18
-0.03

-0.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.0
-0.1

-5.8
1.1
-1.2
1.2
7.9
-0.9

-15.1
3.2
0.5
3.2
14.5
-1.1

697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022

824024
139130
111162
72160
1661
499910
156391
168100
242223
67464
20768
0
1356

842130
111402
115609
108930
4865
501324
216189
137211
265419
49677
47500
0
1517

907823
68425
120554
142811
10435
565597
283452
165526
275383
39320
83892
0
1476

-25299
0
-1214
-6646
0
-17439
-7251
-2342
-12147
-2422
-528
0
0

-141344
-9366
-2272
-20026
0
-109679
-9528
-34824
-64279
526
-11103
0
0

-248494
-38011
-1615
-41692
0
-167175
9277
-65833
-103915
3990
-1249
0
-167

-3.0
0.0
-1.1
-8.4
0.0
-3.4
-4.4
-1.4
-4.8
-3.5
-2.5

-14.4
-7.8
-1.9
-15.5
0.0
-18.0
-4.2
-20.2
-19.5
1.1
-18.9

-21.5
-35.7
-1.3
-22.6
0.0
-22.8
3.4
-28.5
-27.4
11.3
-1.5

0.0

0.0

-10.2

35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9

38.9
48.2
18.6
46.1
28.2
17.9

43.5
47.5
29.0
47.5
22.9
24.6

48.4
43.9
39.6
48.1
16.0
32.2

-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.7
1.0
-0.2

-1.3
-0.8
6.2
2.3
0.9
1.3

1.2
-1.2
13.8
2.2
-2.8
5.0

-0.8
-0.4
0.0
1.6
3.5
-1.3

-2.8
-1.7
27.5
5.0
4.3
5.7

2.5
-2.7
53.4
4.8
-15.1
18.5

5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6

6595.2
518.0
5124.4
458.4
454.7
39.7

7611.3
508.0
5938.8
497.3
621.8
45.4

8395.1
500.6
6553.5
532.1
759.6
49.4

-0.7
1.0
-1.9
0.6
-0.4
0.0

-11.1
3.6
-15.1
3.6
-3.1
-0.1

-29.8
6.5
-34.3
6.2
-8.0
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.1
0.7
-0.3
0.7
-0.5
-0.2

-0.4
1.3
-0.5
1.2
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13382

15333

16967

-1.5

-22.3

-60.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8

2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0

2683.0
1956.4
426.8
299.8

3186.9
2406.3
449.2
331.5

3613.1
2784.6
470.3
358.2

-1.8
-2.6
0.6
0.2

-14.9
-19.0
2.8
1.3

-32.6
-39.7
4.0
3.0

-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1

-0.5
-0.8
0.6
0.4

-0.9
-1.4
0.9
0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

231

221

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044

338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481

383029
7434
173161
139873
8406
47954
6201

381000
6317
168719
148832
6266
44302
6563

375643
5287
158440
151745
5852
47592
6727

-8279
-39
-773
-575
-207
-6673
-13

-39473
-388
-5369
-15628
-525
-17390
-173

-46324
-457
-7864
-22935
-451
-14301
-317

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.4
-12.2
-0.2

-9.4
-5.8
-3.1
-9.5
-7.7
-28.2
-2.6

-11.0
-8.0
-4.7
-13.1
-7.2
-23.1
-4.5

38.9
50.8

39.8
53.6

35.7
55.0

29.5
49.0

25.8
44.0

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.8

-2.6
-6.0

-3.1
-0.4

-9.3
-8.9

-9.2
-12.1

Source: PRIMES

61

EU28: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534

963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012

893941
174342
126282
183935
253537
155846
34444
99692
14195
2184
5331

707421
131338
61308
110578
206826
197371
36922
126937
22276
4879
6357

635207
113219
53129
90094
146350
232415
39845
146986
30902
8183
6498

-10358
-2069
-386
-2044
0
-5859
-421
-3475
-1795
-125
-43

-78322
-25304
-1246
-303
-28866
-22603
-983
-15323
-4865
-1170
-262

-143513
-33193
-264
-1076
-78426
-30554
-716
-17225
-8529
-3057
-1028

-1.1
-1.2
-0.3
-1.1
0.0
-3.6
-1.2
-3.4
-11.2
-5.4
-0.8

-10.0
-16.2
-2.0
-0.3
-12.2
-10.3
-2.6
-10.8
-17.9
-19.3
-4.0

-18.4
-22.7
-0.5
-1.2
-34.9
-11.6
-1.8
-10.5
-21.6
-27.2
-13.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259

868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975

1083712
144725
630626
593398
37229
307071
1290

1207909
126566
668838
640117
28721
411185
1321

1212357
128848
659377
636272
23106
422789
1343

-35422
-5933
-14588
-14683
95
-14891
-9

-171307
-26807
-69424
-65743
-3681
-75043
-33

-256445
-76943
-84922
-81959
-2963
-94491
-88

-3.2
-3.9
-2.3
-2.4
0.3
-4.6
-0.7

-12.4
-17.5
-9.4
-9.3
-11.4
-15.4
-2.4

-17.5
-37.4
-11.4
-11.4
-11.4
-18.3
-6.2

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487

1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549

1928873
319067
708128
491006
253537
1290
155846

1861652
257904
676467
521763
206826
1321
197371

1791155
242068
656097
512883
146350
1343
232415

-45780
-8002
-14974
-16935
0
-9
-5859

-249629
-52110
-70670
-75347
-28866
-33
-22603

-399957
-110136
-85186
-95567
-78426
-88
-30554

-2.3
-2.4
-2.1
-3.3
0.0
-0.7
-3.6

-11.8
-16.8
-9.5
-12.6
-12.2
-2.4
-10.3

-18.3
-31.3
-11.5
-15.7
-34.9
-6.2
-11.6

27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2

19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2

16.5
36.7
25.5
13.1
8.1

13.9
36.3
28.0
11.1
10.6

13.5
36.6
28.6
8.2
13.0

0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.3
-0.1

-0.8
0.9
-0.3
-0.1
0.2

-2.6
2.8
0.9
-2.1
1.0

-0.1
0.3
-1.0
2.4
-1.3

-5.7
2.7
-0.9
-0.5
1.8

-15.9
8.3
3.1
-20.4
8.1

2618738
794718
314786
1509233

3118298
944823
407604
1765871

3645971
982718
567130
2096124

3724144
801659
692683
2229802

3810949
567250
831489
2412210

-129132
0
-25772
-103360

-698378 -1152948
-111887 -303983
-67998 -107493
-518493 -741473

-3.4
0.0
-4.3
-4.7

-15.8
-12.2
-8.9
-18.9

-23.2
-34.9
-11.4
-23.5

393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0

424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0

461044
231038
36034
162124
27970
3878
0

440800
185851
23943
177581
48623
4801
0

425043
180255
23874
145756
70178
4979
0

-19115
-7185
311
-10138
-2103
0
0

-86732
-48775
-1392
-29617
-6948
0
0

-143858
-106751
2829
-37641
-1727
-568
0

-4.0
-3.0
0.9
-5.9
-7.0
0.0

-16.4
-20.8
-5.5
-14.3
-12.5
0.0

-25.3
-37.2
13.4
-20.5
-2.4
-10.2

867592
696742
2
38458
132391

846345
750941
637
19291
75474

859821
769758
17013
14958
58092

835896
744008
32055
9340
50494

815143
726092
38391
8156
42504

-16429
-15378
21
-515
-557

-74004
-68797
457
-4703
-961

-91497
-83935
95
-6907
-751

-1.9
-2.0
0.1
-3.3
-1.0

-8.1
-8.5
1.4
-33.5
-1.9

-10.1
-10.4
0.2
-45.9
-1.7
-14.7

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

80396

88538

89706

83446

78552

-1860

-9867

-13538

-2.0

-10.6

101612

112692

113882

118144

120136

105

-7

8

0.1

0.0

0.0

1109885

1180941

1319527

1338300

1357800

-35533

-172982

-250721

-2.6

-11.4

-15.6

384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441

363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426

398600
240219
158381
332996
186887
401044

432893
247747
185146
317396
179600
408412

471989
252716
219273
304070
169741
412000

-2647
-1293
-1354
-10322
-13720
-8844

-14420
-7458
-6961
-64414
-50973
-43176

-11841
-6014
-5827
-103631
-79770
-55480

-0.7
-0.5
-0.8
-3.0
-6.8
-2.2

-3.2
-2.9
-3.6
-16.9
-22.1
-9.6

-2.4
-2.3
-2.6
-25.4
-32.0
-11.9

136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483

68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041

58407
548238
295342
269092
81551
66899

48656
534463
309541
280205
89623
75812

41158
523152
328891
290231
96293
78075

-359
-13380
-7372
-9776
-3156
-1490

-1910
-64384
-40768
-52842
-4406
-8672

-2326
-81701
-53129
-88009
-8956
-16601

-0.6
-2.4
-2.4
-3.5
-3.7
-2.2

-3.8
-10.8
-11.6
-15.9
-4.7
-10.3

-5.3
-13.5
-13.9
-23.3
-8.5
-17.5

4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9

3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5

4176.2
1464.1
131.8
682.9
504.1
261.1
1132.2

3901.0
1265.8
104.3
702.6
460.8
248.5
1119.1

3761.8
1167.6
85.3
734.1
427.5
234.5
1112.9

-115.7
-53.3
-3.7
-1.4
-15.2
-16.4
-25.7

-593.7
-279.9
-18.0
-32.9
-87.3
-46.7
-128.8

-914.1
-517.2
-19.1
-17.9
-129.7
-65.9
-164.3

-2.7
-3.5
-2.8
-0.2
-2.9
-5.9
-2.2

-13.2
-18.1
-14.7
-4.5
-15.9
-15.8
-10.3

-19.5
-30.7
-18.3
-2.4
-23.3
-22.0
-12.9

100.0

96.7

101.0

94.3

90.9

-2.8

-14.4

-22.1

-2.7

-13.2

-19.5

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

62

EU28: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6

550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5

569.992
11370.5
169.6
3.38
6397
2.17
7.33
367.3
54.8

582.152
14408.7
129.2
3.20
6397
2.10
6.70
270.7
63.1

587.546
17374.7
103.1
3.05
6486
2.10
6.40
216.5
65.6

0.000
0.0
-4.0
-0.08
-227
-0.01
-0.20
-10.2
-0.5

0.000
0.0
-17.3
-0.43
-1200
-0.03
-1.02
-41.2
-0.6

0.000
0.0
-23.0
-0.68
-1962
-0.03
-1.56
-52.6
0.3

0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.3
-3.4
-0.4
-2.7
-2.7
-0.9

0.0
0.0
-11.8
-11.8
-15.8
-1.6
-13.2
-13.2
-1.0

0.0
0.0
-18.3
-18.3
-23.2
-1.6
-19.5
-19.5
0.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7

75.4
78.7
74.3
91.5

64.4
59.7
55.7
73.6

57.9
47.5
43.4
61.5

-0.5
-2.4
-5.5
-2.0

-2.1
-12.1
-15.8
-7.8

-1.5
-16.2
-20.4
-8.3

-0.7
-3.0
-6.8
-2.2

-3.2
-16.9
-22.1
-9.6

-2.4
-25.4
-32.0
-11.9

0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91

0.27
1.96
1.71
1.51
1.40
2.82

0.23
1.89
1.62
1.45
1.38
2.74

0.20
1.85
1.56
1.41
1.38
2.70

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00

-0.01
0.02
-0.02
0.02
0.10
-0.02

-0.03
0.05
0.00
0.04
0.18
-0.03

-0.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.0
-0.1

-5.5
1.1
-1.3
1.1
8.1
-0.8

-14.2
3.0
0.1
2.9
14.7
-1.1

725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040

863609
139130
122720
72571
1661
527528
161587
178192
255817
70967
21128
0
1424

891542
111402
127892
112255
4896
535097
227629
147115
286055
51704
48639
0
1585

985892
69800
134203
150096
10583
621209
306593
186067
303629
41221
88723
0
1568

-25213
0
-1214
-6848
0
-17151
-6976
-2342
-11792
-2488
-529
0
0

-146543
-9366
-2272
-20026
0
-114878
-8111
-37576
-66743
460
-11019
0
0

-259234
-38350
-1615
-42158
0
-177110
14731
-71435
-110788
3924
1356
0
-167

-2.8
0.0
-1.0
-8.6
0.0
-3.1
-4.1
-1.3
-4.4
-3.4
-2.4

-14.1
-7.8
-1.7
-15.1
0.0
-17.7
-3.4
-20.3
-18.9
0.9
-18.5

-20.8
-35.5
-1.2
-21.9
0.0
-22.2
5.0
-27.7
-26.7
10.5
1.6

0.0

0.0

-9.6

35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3

39.1
48.2
18.3
45.1
27.0
18.2

43.5
47.7
28.9
46.1
21.5
24.6

48.8
44.1
39.4
46.2
14.9
31.3

-0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.7
0.9
-0.2

-1.3
-0.9
6.4
2.3
0.9
1.5

1.1
-1.4
14.1
2.2
-2.7
4.9

-0.7
-0.6
0.4
1.6
3.5
-1.1

-2.9
-1.9
28.7
5.3
4.2
6.3

2.4
-3.0
56.0
5.1
-15.2
18.6

5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4

6896.4
619.8
5298.4
467.1
466.2
45.0

8250.1
631.1
6391.3
519.5
653.0
55.2

9447.2
615.4
7369.7
577.3
822.1
62.7

-0.8
1.2
-2.3
0.7
-0.4
0.0

-14.8
5.5
-21.7
5.2
-3.6
-0.2

-47.2
9.2
-57.9
12.0
-10.1
-0.4

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.9
-0.3
1.0
-0.6
-0.3

-0.5
1.5
-0.8
2.1
-1.2
-0.7

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229

10441

12099

14172

16079

-1.4

-25.4

-80.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3

2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8

2945.1
2201.2
438.7
305.2

3591.8
2784.3
468.1
339.4

4185.2
3318.1
498.6
368.5

-2.3
-3.1
0.6
0.2

-20.2
-24.9
3.3
1.4

-46.3
-55.5
6.0
3.3

-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1

-0.6
-0.9
0.7
0.4

-1.1
-1.6
1.2
0.9

261

255

259

249

241

-0.2

-1.4

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295

350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673

401044
8867
176687
150966
8658
49397
6469

408412
7855
176653
163420
6524
46973
6987

412000
6464
170579
168987
6311
52403
7257

-8844
-43
-797
-652
-224
-7115
-14

-43176
-473
-5682
-17584
-560
-18684
-194

-55480
-655
-10398
-27733
-430
-15898
-366

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.6
-0.2

-9.6
-5.7
-3.1
-9.7
-7.9
-28.5
-2.7

-11.9
-9.2
-5.7
-14.1
-6.4
-23.3
-4.8

38.5
51.8

39.3
52.8

35.1
53.9

28.8
47.6

24.9
42.2

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.7

-2.7
-6.2

-3.2
-0.4

-9.4
-9.0

-9.9
-12.9

Source: PRIMES

63

Europe-30: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595

1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103

1139691
174875
256494
272327
260539
175457
49513
104038
14276
2211
5420

954652
131637
185627
205215
213640
218533
53109
131705
22365
4914
6440

841623
113345
134965
189832
148643
254838
56361
152641
31022
8239
6575

-18638
-2069
-1712
-8647
0
-6211
-431
-3540
-2070
-126
-45

-105240
-25332
-1246
-25820
-29194
-23649
-1179
-15661
-5364
-1173
-273

-167796
-33370
-264
-19265
-83120
-31777
-1110
-17268
-9299
-3060
-1041

-1.6
-1.2
-0.7
-3.1
0.0
-3.4
-0.9
-3.3
-12.7
-5.4
-0.8

-9.9
-16.1
-0.7
-11.2
-12.0
-9.8
-2.2
-10.6
-19.3
-19.3
-4.1

-16.6
-22.7
-0.2
-9.2
-35.9
-11.1
-1.9
-10.2
-23.1
-27.1
-13.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710

684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272

895371
145472
521920
482390
39530
228092
-114

1016826
127031
564507
533840
30667
325293
-5

1058074
129099
596700
572255
24445
332315
-40

-28363
-6000
-14744
-14992
249
-7610
-10

-149802
-26879
-72169
-68320
-3849
-50720
-33

-241324
-77115
-87557
-84406
-3151
-76563
-88

-3.1
-4.0
-2.7
-3.0
0.6
-3.2
9.1

-12.8
-17.5
-11.3
-11.3
-11.2
-13.5
-117.3

-18.6
-37.4
-12.8
-12.9
-11.4
-18.7
-182.7

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557

1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725

1985223
320348
728574
500420
260539
-114
175457

1916506
258668
695162
530508
213640
-5
218533

1841774
242444
673743
522146
148643
-40
254838

-47002
-8069
-16456
-16257
0
-10
-6211

-255042
-52211
-73415
-76540
-29194
-33
-23649

-409120
-110486
-87821
-95828
-83120
-88
-31777

-2.3
-2.5
-2.2
-3.1
0.0
9.1
-3.4

-11.7
-16.8
-9.6
-12.6
-12.0
-117.3
-9.8

-18.2
-31.3
-11.5
-15.5
-35.9
-182.7
-11.1

26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9

18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1

16.1
36.7
25.2
13.1
8.8

13.5
36.3
27.7
11.1
11.4

13.2
36.6
28.4
8.1
13.8

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.3
-0.1

-0.8
0.9
-0.3
0.0
0.3

-2.5
2.7
0.9
-2.2
1.1

-0.1
0.1
-0.9
2.4
-1.1

-5.7
2.5
-1.0
-0.3
2.2

-16.0
8.1
3.3
-21.6
8.7

2794856
818651
465941
1510263

3323905
971593
583374
1768938

3857909
1009830
743317
2104762

3946556
828046
882000
2236511

4033225
576128
1025076
2432020

-133680
0
-29077
-104603

-715783 -1184412
-113156 -322158
-76073 -121029
-526554 -741225

-3.3
0.0
-3.8
-4.7

-15.4
-12.0
-7.9
-19.1

-22.7
-35.9
-10.6
-23.4

394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0

425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0

463424
231257
36191
162798
29300
3878
0

442880
185959
24007
177581
50531
4801
0

428993
180255
23925
146427
73407
4979
0

-19162
-7160
309
-10333
-1978
0
0

-87999
-48688
-1397
-30552
-7362
0
0

-144243
-106751
2814
-37624
-2114
-568
0

-4.0
-3.0
0.9
-6.0
-6.3
0.0

-16.6
-20.7
-5.5
-14.7
-12.7
0.0

-25.2
-37.2
13.3
-20.4
-2.8
-10.2

884427
713481
2
38512
132432

866713
771184
637
19379
75512

878876
788189
17350
15220
58118

854502
761467
32865
9661
50509

833768
743392
39408
8458
42510

-18075
-17004
22
-535
-558

-76605
-71343
465
-4758
-970

-94062
-86376
95
-7022
-760

-2.0
-2.1
0.1
-3.4
-1.0

-8.2
-8.6
1.4
-33.0
-1.9

-10.1
-10.4
0.2
-45.4
-1.8
-14.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

83789

92950

94513

87434

81916

-1702

-10366

-13907

-1.8

-10.6

103762

115166

116093

120284

122320

106

-7

8

0.1

0.0

0.0

1145388

1220510

1362212

1381044

1399772

-36808

-177124

-256000

-2.6

-11.4

-15.5

394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860

375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964

411065
249092
161972
343110
194510
413528

446366
257211
189155
327328
186937
420413

485932
262245
223687
313573
176734
423533

-2741
-1344
-1397
-10466
-14276
-9325

-14667
-7583
-7084
-65319
-52558
-44580

-12097
-6182
-5915
-104984
-82012
-56907

-0.7
-0.5
-0.9
-3.0
-6.8
-2.2

-3.2
-2.9
-3.6
-16.6
-21.9
-9.6

-2.4
-2.3
-2.6
-25.1
-31.7
-11.8

137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359

69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512

59368
566703
299386
284293
82641
69822

49270
551566
314212
296540
90965
78492

41527
539138
333877
306665
98219
80347

-442
-14226
-7307
-10133
-3042
-1658

-2060
-66742
-40966
-54222
-4531
-8602

-2613
-83991
-53381
-90517
-9187
-16312

-0.7
-2.4
-2.4
-3.4
-3.6
-2.3

-4.0
-10.8
-11.5
-15.5
-4.7
-9.9

-5.9
-13.5
-13.8
-22.8
-8.6
-16.9

4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6

4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4

4257.8
1467.4
141.6
694.4
516.2
271.0
1167.2

3974.5
1266.9
112.2
715.1
471.2
257.3
1151.8

3831.5
1169.8
92.0
746.9
436.5
242.6
1143.8

-118.7
-53.7
-3.6
-1.7
-15.5
-17.1
-27.1

-605.0
-282.0
-19.2
-34.0
-88.5
-48.5
-132.9

-923.9
-517.7
-19.8
-19.1
-130.8
-67.9
-168.5

-2.7
-3.5
-2.5
-0.2
-2.9
-5.9
-2.3

-13.2
-18.2
-14.6
-4.5
-15.8
-15.9
-10.3

-19.4
-30.7
-17.7
-2.5
-23.1
-21.9
-12.8

100.0

96.9

101.2

94.5

91.1

-2.8

-14.4

-22.0

-2.7

-13.2

-19.4

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

64

Europe-30: Efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9

562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4

582.130
11898.8
166.8
3.41
6627
2.14
7.31
357.8
44.0

594.587
15057.8
127.3
3.22
6637
2.07
6.68
264.0
51.6

600.252
18137.4
101.5
3.07
6719
2.08
6.38
211.2
55.7

0.000
0.0
-4.0
-0.08
-230
-0.01
-0.20
-10.0
-0.4

0.000
0.0
-16.9
-0.43
-1204
-0.04
-1.02
-40.2
-0.8

0.000
0.0
-22.6
-0.68
-1973
-0.03
-1.54
-50.9
-0.6

0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.3
-3.3
-0.4
-2.7
-2.7
-0.8

0.0
0.0
-11.7
-11.7
-15.4
-1.7
-13.2
-13.2
-1.6

0.0
0.0
-18.2
-18.2
-22.7
-1.5
-19.4
-19.4
-1.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4

75.3
78.7
74.7
91.3

64.3
59.8
56.0
73.3

57.8
47.7
43.7
61.3

-0.5
-2.4
-5.5
-2.1

-2.1
-11.9
-15.7
-7.8

-1.4
-16.0
-20.3
-8.2

-0.7
-3.0
-6.8
-2.2

-3.2
-16.6
-21.9
-9.6

-2.4
-25.1
-31.7
-11.8

0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90

0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91

0.26
1.94
1.69
1.50
1.39
2.82

0.22
1.88
1.60
1.44
1.38
2.74

0.19
1.84
1.54
1.39
1.37
2.70

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00

-0.01
0.02
-0.02
0.01
0.10
-0.02

-0.03
0.05
0.00
0.04
0.17
-0.03

-0.5
0.4
0.4
0.1
1.0
-0.1

-5.9
1.0
-1.4
1.0
7.8
-0.8

-14.6
2.8
-0.1
2.7
14.4
-1.1

769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040

911288
142580
163989
73002
1705
530011
162883
178348
257366
71132
21742
0
1424

941486
114852
170917
112753
5007
537957
229439
147192
287524
51799
49856
0
1585

1036382
70909
177739
150991
10814
625929
310446
186067
305148
41273
91872
0
1568

-26522
0
-1227
-7959
0
-17336
-6907
-2280
-12071
-2466
-519
0
0

-149753
-9366
-2397
-22264
0
-115725
-8100
-37514
-67382
488
-11317
0
0

-265176
-40666
-1601
-45232
0
-177677
15198
-71435
-111185
3916
1195
0
-167

-2.8
0.0
-0.7
-9.8
0.0
-3.2
-4.1
-1.3
-4.5
-3.4
-2.3

-13.7
-7.5
-1.4
-16.5
0.0
-17.7
-3.4
-20.3
-19.0
1.0
-18.5

-20.4
-36.4
-0.9
-23.1
0.0
-22.1
5.1
-27.7
-26.7
10.5
1.3

0.0

0.0

-9.6

35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6

39.1
48.3
17.5
48.0
26.2
21.8

43.4
47.9
27.4
49.2
21.0
28.2

48.8
44.4
37.7
49.1
14.3
34.8

-0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.8
0.9
-0.1

-1.3
-0.9
6.0
2.6
0.8
1.8

1.1
-1.3
13.4
2.5
-2.9
5.4

-0.8
-0.5
0.6
1.6
3.5
-0.5

-3.0
-1.9
27.9
5.6
3.9
6.9

2.4
-2.9
55.2
5.3
-17.0
18.4

5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4

7097.5
628.0
5451.8
490.0
481.5
46.2

8473.0
639.9
6560.7
544.2
671.8
56.5

9682.0
624.6
7547.7
602.8
842.8
64.1

-0.8
1.2
-2.4
0.8
-0.4
0.0

-15.0
5.5
-22.0
5.3
-3.7
-0.2

-47.7
9.2
-58.5
12.1
-10.2
-0.4

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.9
-0.3
1.0
-0.5
-0.3

-0.5
1.5
-0.8
2.1
-1.2
-0.7

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320

10531

12192

14250

16130

-1.4

-25.2

-79.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5

2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0

3057.6
2252.5
454.5
350.6

3722.8
2853.3
484.6
384.9

4329.2
3402.9
515.2
411.1

-2.3
-3.2
0.7
0.2

-20.8
-25.6
3.3
1.4

-47.7
-57.1
6.0
3.4

-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1

-0.6
-0.9
0.7
0.4

-1.1
-1.7
1.2
0.8

257

253

257

247

239

-0.2

-1.4

-2.6

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229

361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394

413528
9044
182455
154314
9047
51466
7202

420413
8017
181921
167251
6823
48701
7700

423533
6606
175357
173011
6582
54072
7905

-9325
-44
-824
-672
-233
-7537
-16

-44580
-482
-5848
-18071
-585
-19385
-209

-56907
-665
-10553
-28444
-448
-16408
-389

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.8
-0.2

-9.6
-5.7
-3.1
-9.8
-7.9
-28.5
-2.6

-11.8
-9.2
-5.7
-14.1
-6.4
-23.3
-4.7

38.9
51.4

39.6
52.0

35.3
53.3

28.9
47.1

25.0
41.8

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.7

-2.7
-6.2

-3.3
-0.4

-9.5
-9.0

-9.9
-12.9

Source: PRIMES

65

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

66

APPENDIX 2: “High renewables” case results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

67

EU25: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101

898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322

892669
146241
116759
171121
248776
209773
31986
137157
23032
2689
14908

801998
95682
52492
97939
196397
359488
34034
247203
42996
12297
22959

808992
99613
42909
80027
140177
446266
34924
296690
55196
33711
25745

56253
-8287
-420
-1058
0
66017
2108
44749
7246
1199
10715

95477
-35400
-466
-410
-32241
163996
1831
118011
16755
9550
17849

123890
-20585
-540
221
-70631
215424
1043
147811
17254
29317
20000

6.7
-5.4
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
45.9
7.1
48.4
45.9
80.5
255.5

13.5
-27.0
-0.9
-0.4
-14.1
83.9
5.7
91.3
63.8
347.7
349.3

18.1
-17.1
-1.2
0.3
-33.5
93.3
3.1
99.3
45.5
667.2
348.1

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181

801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144

969363
111443
582989
544772
38217
272772
2159

1117652
100117
631172
601179
29993
384351
2012

1108116
100344
597641
575701
21940
407931
2200

-54912
-20845
-16709
-16585
-124
-17280
-78

-114039
-28277
-38694
-35496
-3197
-46959
-110

-157451
-72575
-54808
-50549
-4259
-30066
-2

-5.4
-15.8
-2.8
-3.0
-0.3
-6.0
-3.5

-9.3
-22.0
-5.8
-5.6
-9.6
-10.9
-5.2

-12.4
-42.0
-8.4
-8.1
-16.3
-6.9
-0.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855

1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499

1813873
257683
651589
443893
248776
2159
209773

1866775
195799
630789
482290
196397
2012
359488

1861676
199957
585118
487958
140177
2200
446266

1341
-29132
-17129
-18338
0
-78
66017

-18562
-63677
-39160
-47369
-32241
-110
163996

-33561
-93160
-55348
-29845
-70631
-2
215424

0.1
-10.2
-2.6
-4.0
0.0
-3.5
45.9

-1.0
-24.5
-5.8
-8.9
-14.1
-5.2
83.9

-1.8
-31.8
-8.6
-5.8
-33.5
-0.1
93.3

27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4

18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8

14.2
35.9
24.5
13.7
11.6

10.5
33.8
25.8
10.5
19.3

10.7
31.4
26.2
7.5
24.0

-1.6
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
3.6

-3.3
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
8.9

-4.7
-2.4
-1.1
-3.6
11.8

-10.2
-2.6
-4.0
-0.1
45.8

-23.8
-4.9
-8.0
-13.2
85.7

-30.6
-7.0
-4.1
-32.3
96.8

2455674
780056
272788
1402830

2900835
921193
359249
1620392

3436319
964265
641307
1830746

3920113
761237
935026
2223851

4259090
543324
1128501
2587265

-46867
0
108763
-155630

-85662
-124970
251175
-211867

-107509
-273767
284778
-118519

-1.3
0.0
20.4
-7.8

-2.1
-14.1
36.7
-8.7

-2.5
-33.5
33.8
-4.4

355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0

385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0

417257
188068
32408
138432
43975
14375
0

443126
136759
23436
146487
114031
22413
0

484046
148985
20743
141897
147208
25215
0

-14983
-26882
775
-14394
14828
10690
0

-19645
-61743
124
-36244
60412
17806
0

-5992
-91326
948
-13351
77784
19954
0

-3.5
-12.5
2.4
-9.4
50.9
290.1

-4.2
-31.1
0.5
-19.8
112.7
386.4

-1.2
-38.0
4.8
-8.6
112.0
379.3

797634
642275
2
31035
124322

796450
710448
637
17261
68104

805352
710830
26888
17178
50455

819358
695679
62149
16545
44985

789373
653659
80909
16768
38037

-7545
-18092
10095
1928
-1477

-4737
-38345
31145
2727
-263

-7692
-54444
44534
2035
184

-0.9
-2.5
60.1
12.6
-2.8

-0.6
-5.2
100.5
19.7
-0.6

-1.0
-7.7
122.4
13.8
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

79600

78039

74549

-1898

-3127

-3586

-2.3

-3.9

-4.6

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107358

110828

111696

-490

-371

-468

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1021913

1095359

1240910

1340478

1377071

2903

1973

6618

0.2

0.1

0.5

341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198

330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020

358933
222597
136336
312864
187963
381151

384888
230098
154790
339880
210162
405548

393524
226214
167309
352815
228386
402346

2513
1837
676
898
-524
17

2486
1706
780
1139
-1694
43

1958
1282
676
1530
3069
60

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
-0.8
0.0

0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4
1.4
0.0

123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053

56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465

44654
505171
275834
256211
78263
80777

38754
496303
302517
297620
85885
119399

33509
460797
310182
327648
94487
150447

-547
-12171
-3341
-3099
-1914
23976

-666
-33592
-7209
-5298
-1806
50544

-515
-51039
-11215
-6395
-838
76621

-1.2
-2.4
-1.2
-1.2
-2.4
42.2

-1.7
-6.3
-2.3
-1.7
-2.1
73.4

-1.5
-10.0
-3.5
-1.9
-0.9
103.8

3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7

3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9

3673.9
1213.5
110.5
558.8
479.2
260.0
1051.9

3449.0
989.3
97.7
566.7
490.8
261.2
1043.3

3352.9
1018.1
84.6
544.3
481.9
237.0
986.9

-208.0
-148.3
-13.4
-18.2
-3.5
-1.8
-22.7

-479.6
-344.0
-16.2
-28.5
-4.1
-14.7
-72.1

-602.1
-405.9
-15.1
-25.5
-4.8
-44.9
-106.0

-5.4
-10.9
-10.8
-3.2
-0.7
-0.7
-2.1

-12.2
-25.8
-14.2
-4.8
-0.8
-5.3
-6.5

-15.2
-28.5
-15.1
-4.5
-1.0
-15.9
-9.7

100.0

97.3

97.3

91.3

88.8

-5.5

-12.7

-15.9

-5.4

-12.2

-15.2

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

68

EU25: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7

452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2

464.054
10946.8
165.7
3.91
7405
2.03
7.92
335.6
52.1

469.270
13656.3
136.7
3.98
8354
1.85
7.35
252.6
58.2

469.365
16051.4
116.0
3.97
9074
1.80
7.14
208.9
57.8

0.000
0.0
0.1
0.00
-101
-0.12
-0.45
-19.0
-3.0

0.000
0.0
-1.4
-0.04
-183
-0.24
-1.02
-35.1
-5.3

0.000
0.0
-2.1
-0.07
-229
-0.29
-1.28
-37.5
-7.1

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.3
-5.4
-5.4
-5.4
-5.4

0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.1
-11.3
-12.2
-12.2
-8.4

0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
-2.5
-13.7
-15.2
-15.2
-10.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4

77.8
80.6
79.3
93.0

67.1
70.8
70.1
79.3

58.8
62.8
64.2
66.9

0.5
0.2
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.2
-0.6
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.9
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.8
0.0

0.5
0.4
1.4
0.0

0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91

0.24
1.89
1.56
1.53
1.38
2.76

0.17
1.76
1.47
1.44
1.24
2.57

0.17
1.63
1.38
1.37
1.04
2.45

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.06
-0.09
-0.08
-0.02
-0.06
-0.18

-0.06
-0.14
-0.07
-0.02
-0.21
-0.26

-11.1
-2.2
-3.8
-1.0
-0.4
-2.1

-25.4
-5.0
-5.4
-1.2
-4.6
-6.5

-27.9
-7.9
-5.0
-1.4
-17.0
-9.7

661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022

832528
136430
108102
110835
1658
475503
144165
152192
228459
64401
26651
0
3800

1013950
111389
111656
208644
27681
554581
207768
112131
280220
41914
114557
0
5758

1184840
66869
113754
275086
57304
671827
249908
137616
336543
35640
155646
0
6382

22021
0
4169
32443
0
-14591
-6705
-4345
-16980
-1648
5938
0
2444

71369
-5547
3039
81020
22831
-29973
-1193
-44675
-40987
-6016
57464
0
4241

88548
-34347
1553
92154
46940
-17752
1909
-73620
-23591
674
74045
0
4739

2.7
0.0
4.0
41.4
0.0
-3.0
-4.4
-2.8
-6.9
-2.5
28.7

7.6
-4.7
2.8
63.5
470.8
-5.1
-0.6
-28.5
-12.8
-12.6
100.6

8.1
-33.9
1.4
50.4
452.9
-2.6
0.8
-34.9
-6.6
1.9
90.7

180.2

279.5

288.4

36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7

37.7
47.1
18.5
51.6
28.1
23.5

43.2
44.1
22.4
58.8
19.4
39.4

46.0
41.0
25.2
58.4
12.8
45.6

-1.8
-1.9
0.7
5.8
0.4
5.4

-2.1
-4.4
0.5
13.3
-2.7
16.0

-1.5
-4.4
0.9
12.1
-6.0
18.0

-4.5
-4.0
3.9
12.7
1.4
30.1

-4.7
-9.0
2.4
29.1
-12.2
68.1

-3.2
-9.8
3.6
26.0
-31.8
65.3

5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6

6448.9
495.1
5016.9
445.5
451.6
39.7

7400.7
480.6
5781.8
476.0
616.8
45.5

8128.8
466.8
6359.9
502.7
749.9
49.5

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.0

-1.3
0.1
1.0
-2.5
0.1
0.0

-1.4
0.1
1.3
-3.0
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13897

15771

17319

-1.0

-2.8

-3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1

2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0

2581.8
1891.4
401.3
289.0

3047.9
2312.4
419.8
315.6

3431.0
2658.4
436.9
335.7

-0.4
0.3
-0.7
0.0

-0.8
0.7
-1.6
0.0

-0.9
1.1
-2.0
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

223

214

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714

333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368

381151
7021
170190
135663
8290
54178
5808

405548
6275
168929
156875
6475
60787
6206

402346
5321
159883
164445
5974
60369
6354

17
1
13
16
-17
4
0

43
1
28
45
-43
10
1

60
1
32
59
-45
11
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

39.3
51.7

39.9
53.9

37.0
55.3

32.7
53.8

28.4
49.9

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

Source: PRIMES

69

EU15: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101

761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315

753852
61866
114400
165364
231522
180701
30263
113194
21925
2374
12945

658988
42089
50377
92637
178810
295074
32174
191893
40044
11086
19877

652663
51399
41084
75242
123702
361236
32974
225587
50548
29750
22377

44215
-6393
-418
-1056
0
52082
1846
33875
6545
1049
8767

78489
-17906
-451
-398
-28352
125595
1632
85670
14865
8641
14788

100930
-7218
-513
226
-53884
162320
960
103180
15640
25884
16656

6.2
-9.4
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
40.5
6.5
42.7
42.6
79.1
209.8

13.5
-29.8
-0.9
-0.4
-13.7
74.1
5.3
80.7
59.0
353.4
290.6

18.3
-12.3
-1.2
0.3
-30.3
81.6
3.0
84.3
44.8
669.5
291.1

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333

741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644

879146
118223
528232
499196
29037
228868
3823

999710
97175
569164
549432
19732
329599
3773

980746
96418
531433
520229
11204
347934
4960

-45279
-16857
-14527
-14636
109
-13894
-1

-95190
-26303
-34399
-31699
-2700
-34487
-1

-130097
-63535
-47985
-44672
-3312
-18577
-1

-4.9
-12.5
-2.7
-2.8
0.4
-5.7
0.0

-8.7
-21.3
-5.7
-5.5
-12.0
-9.5
0.0

-11.7
-39.7
-8.3
-7.9
-22.8
-5.1
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014

1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491

1585981
180089
595615
394232
231522
3823
180701

1607096
139264
567939
422236
178810
3773
295074

1579333
147818
518441
423176
123702
4960
361236

-1064
-23250
-14945
-14950
0
-1
52082

-16701
-44209
-34851
-34885
-28352
-1
125595

-29167
-70753
-48498
-18351
-53884
-1
162320

-0.1
-11.4
-2.4
-3.7
0.0
0.0
40.5

-1.0
-24.1
-5.8
-7.6
-13.7
0.0
74.1

-1.8
-32.4
-8.6
-4.2
-30.3
0.0
81.6

23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9

14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0

11.4
37.6
24.9
14.6
11.4

8.7
35.3
26.3
11.1
18.4

9.4
32.8
26.8
7.8
22.9

-1.5
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
3.3

-2.6
-1.8
-1.9
-1.6
7.9

-4.2
-2.4
-0.7
-3.2
10.5

-11.4
-2.4
-3.6
0.1
40.6

-23.3
-4.8
-6.7
-12.8
75.9

-31.1
-6.9
-2.4
-29.1
85.0

2138940
720059
259810
1159070

2576502
863760
343478
1369264

3042394
897389
608383
1536621

3414280
693070
878907
1842303

3645733
479465
1051112
2115155

-40356
0
97568
-137924

-70462
-109891
226884
-187454

-89713
-208854
265046
-145905

-1.3
0.0
19.1
-8.2

-2.0
-13.7
34.8
-9.2

-2.4
-30.3
33.7
-6.5

282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0

319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0

340348
135008
29383
128958
34563
12436
0

358969
99348
21118
137617
81519
19366
0

391903
113706
18427
134148
103732
21890
0

-15632
-21347
683
-11977
8257
8751
0

-18255
-43457
160
-26236
36519
14759
0

-13659
-70480
954
-5687
44925
16630
0

-4.4
-13.7
2.4
-8.5
31.4
237.5

-4.8
-30.4
0.8
-16.0
81.2
320.3

-3.4
-38.3
5.5
-4.1
76.4
316.1

704402
595036
2
13085
96279

725664
665476
604
8717
50868

733092
661966
24662
8324
38141

738838
640681
56184
8216
33757

703174
595113
72425
7444
28192

-6857
-16121
9137
1588
-1461

-4014
-34506
27991
2755
-254

-6647
-48499
39904
1797
150

-0.9
-2.4
58.9
23.6
-3.7

-0.5
-5.1
99.3
50.5
-0.7

-0.9
-7.5
122.7
31.8
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

67228

64787

60898

-1617

-2734

-3310

-2.3

-4.0

-5.2

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96624

97462

96372

-439

-334

-410

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

866453

970663

1089398

1157341

1170009

2663

2236

6083

0.2

0.2

0.5

272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606

284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102

308931
193145
115785
269848
161381
349238

325205
196817
128389
288053
176217
367865

327750
191362
136389
294472
187553
360233

2162
1631
531
727
-240
14

2148
1526
622
1055
-1000
33

1618
1109
509
1359
3064
43

0.7
0.9
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.0

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.4
-0.6
0.0

0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.7
0.0

79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865

35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953

27940
462067
241457
230612
58320
69003

24845
446987
258634
262502
63806
100568

21286
408297
261464
284103
68970
125890

-685
-11070
-3209
-2552
-1571
21750

-470
-30269
-6859
-4104
-950
44888

-326
-45558
-9637
-4994
-21
66618

-2.4
-2.3
-1.3
-1.1
-2.6
46.0

-1.9
-6.3
-2.6
-1.5
-1.5
80.6

-1.5
-10.0
-3.6
-1.7
0.0
112.4

3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5

3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8

3120.6
948.1
101.2
457.6
424.3
224.3
965.2

2940.7
798.5
88.3
454.0
430.9
220.8
948.1

2844.4
839.5
76.2
428.5
420.9
194.5
884.8

-170.3
-115.6
-11.5
-18.2
-3.0
-1.4
-20.6

-360.3
-238.1
-14.4
-26.6
-3.9
-12.5
-64.9

-466.6
-293.1
-13.2
-22.8
-4.3
-38.2
-95.1

-5.2
-10.9
-10.2
-3.8
-0.7
-0.6
-2.1

-10.9
-23.0
-14.0
-5.5
-0.9
-5.4
-6.4

-14.1
-25.9
-14.8
-5.0
-1.0
-16.4
-9.7

100.0

101.9

101.7

95.8

92.7

-5.5

-11.7

-15.2

-5.2

-10.9

-14.1

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

70

EU15: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5

378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5

390.652
10391.5
152.6
4.06
7788
1.97
7.99
300.3
53.8

397.458
12835.7
125.2
4.04
8590
1.83
7.40
229.1
60.3

398.737
14948.8
105.6
3.96
9143
1.80
7.13
190.3
60.0

0.000
0.0
-0.1
0.00
-103
-0.11
-0.44
-16.4
-2.7

0.000
0.0
-1.3
-0.04
-177
-0.20
-0.91
-28.1
-5.1

0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.07
-225
-0.26
-1.17
-31.2
-6.8

0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-1.3
-5.1
-5.2
-5.2
-4.8

0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-10.0
-10.9
-10.9
-7.8

0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
-2.4
-12.5
-14.1
-14.1
-10.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0

85.9
83.3
82.8
92.9

73.8
72.8
72.0
79.2

64.4
64.2
65.2
66.6

0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.0

0.5
0.3
-0.4
0.0

0.3
0.3
1.1
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.1
0.0

0.7
0.4
-0.6
0.0

0.5
0.5
1.7
0.0

0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91

0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92

0.21
1.90
1.48
1.57
1.39
2.76

0.16
1.77
1.40
1.50
1.25
2.58

0.16
1.65
1.31
1.43
1.04
2.46

-0.03
-0.04
-0.07
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.05
-0.10
-0.09
-0.02
-0.06
-0.18

-0.06
-0.15
-0.08
-0.02
-0.22
-0.26

-11.1
-2.3
-4.5
-1.0
-0.5
-2.1

-22.7
-5.2
-6.2
-1.3
-4.8
-6.4

-25.4
-8.2
-5.5
-1.5
-17.8
-9.7

588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022

745541
127644
100717
104649
1645
410886
119426
113157
217083
57201
20074
0
3371

893788
102603
103906
192543
27544
467193
176358
86415
259013
36774
79907
0
5084

1014282
58601
105729
249045
56767
544140
197512
101169
301600
31106
104618
0
5647

21372
0
3603
28517
0
-10749
-5273
-3364
-10869
-1779
3248
0
2015

65698
-3596
2638
71212
22831
-27389
809
-30734
-30609
-4955
35343
0
3567

84728
-26067
1333
82235
46940
-19713
3498
-53017
-13780
1690
41389
0
4004

3.0
0.0
3.7
37.5
0.0
-2.5
-4.2
-2.9
-4.8
-3.0
19.3

7.9
-3.4
2.6
58.7
484.5
-5.5
0.5
-26.2
-10.6
-11.9
79.3

9.1
-30.8
1.3
49.3
477.7
-3.5
1.8
-34.4
-4.4
5.7
65.5

148.6

235.1

243.7

36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9

38.8
46.6
17.3
53.7
29.5
24.2

44.1
43.6
21.2
58.6
20.3
38.3

46.4
41.0
22.8
57.7
13.2
44.6

-1.6
-2.0
0.6
5.2
0.4
4.8

-2.1
-4.4
0.8
10.7
-2.7
13.5

-1.5
-4.8
1.2
10.0
-5.3
15.3

-4.0
-4.1
3.7
10.8
1.3
24.9

-4.6
-9.2
3.9
22.4
-11.9
54.4

-3.2
-10.6
5.5
20.9
-28.6
52.1

4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0

5831.6
422.5
4546.2
395.4
428.4
39.1

6644.7
414.1
5175.3
427.4
583.2
44.8

7227.6
404.5
5612.8
454.6
706.9
48.7

-0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.0

-1.1
0.1
0.9
-2.2
0.1
0.0

-1.2
0.1
1.1
-2.5
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14928

16718

18126

-1.1

-2.8

-3.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1

1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8

2142.9
1590.4
267.8
284.8

2490.9
1900.1
279.7
311.1

2775.7
2157.1
287.6
331.1

-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.0

-0.5
0.4
-1.0
0.0

-0.5
0.6
-1.2
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

194

186

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383

310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314

349238
5957
155194
123196
7099
52040
5751

367865
5358
152194
140526
5506
58136
6145

360233
4554
140761
145756
5095
57776
6290

14
1
12
12
-14
4
0

33
1
25
36
-39
10
1

43
1
26
43
-38
10
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

41.2
58.0

40.7
58.5

37.7
60.5

33.3
58.9

28.8
54.8

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

Source: PRIMES

71

NMS: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0

136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8

138817
84375
2359
5757
17254
29072
1724
23963
1107
316
1963

143011
53592
2115
5302
17587
64414
1859
55310
2952
1210
3082

156329
48214
1825
4784
16475
85031
1950
71103
4648
3961
3368

12038
-1894
-2
-2
0
13935
262
10874
701
151
1948

16989
-17494
-15
-13
-3890
38400
199
32342
1890
909
3061

22960
9.5
13.5
17.2
-13366
-2.2
-24.6
-21.7
-27
-0.1
-0.7
-1.4
-5
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-16746
0.0
-18.1
-50.4
53104
92.1
147.6
166.3
83
17.9
12.0
4.5
44631
83.1
140.8
168.6
1613
173.1
177.8
53.2
3433
91.3
301.2
650.1
3344 12579.4 14583.5 13522.5

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152

59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500

90217
-6780
54757
45577
9180
43905
-1664

117941
2942
62008
51746
10261
54753
-1761

127371
3926
66208
55473
10735
59997
-2760

-9633
-3987
-2182
-1949
-233
-3386
-77

-18849
-1975
-4294
-3797
-497
-12471
-109

-27353
-9041
-6824
-5877
-947
-11488
-1

-9.6
142.7
-3.8
-4.1
-2.5
-7.2
4.9

-13.8
-40.2
-6.5
-6.8
-4.6
-18.6
6.6

-17.7
-69.7
-9.3
-9.6
-8.1
-16.1
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841

196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008

227893
77594
55974
49661
17254
-1664
29072

259679
56535
62850
60054
17587
-1761
64414

282344
52139
66677
64782
16475
-2760
85031

2405
-5881
-2184
-3388
0
-77
13935

-1860
-19469
-4309
-12484
-3890
-109
38400

-4394
-22407
-6850
-11493
-16746
-1
53104

1.1
-7.0
-3.8
-6.4
0.0
4.9
92.1

-0.7
-25.6
-6.4
-17.2
-18.1
6.6
147.6

-1.5
-30.1
-9.3
-15.1
-50.4
0.0
166.3

54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6

46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6

34.0
24.6
21.8
7.6
12.8

21.8
24.2
23.1
6.8
24.8

18.5
23.6
22.9
5.8
30.1

-3.0
-1.2
-1.7
-0.1
6.0

-7.3
-1.5
-4.6
-1.4
14.9

-7.5
-2.0
-3.7
-5.8
19.0

-8.0
-4.8
-7.4
-1.1
90.0

-25.1
-5.7
-16.6
-17.5
149.4

-29.0
-7.9
-13.7
-49.6
170.5

316734
59996
12978
243760

324333
57434
15771
251128

393925
66876
32924
294125

505833
68167
56118
381548

613358
63859
77389
472110

-6511
0
11196
-17706

-15200
-15079
24291
-24413

-17796
-64913
19732
27385

-1.6
0.0
51.5
-5.7

-2.9
-18.1
76.3
-6.0

-2.8
-50.4
34.2
6.2

73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0

66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0

76909
53059
3025
9474
9411
1939
0

84157
37410
2318
8870
32512
3047
0

92144
35279
2316
7749
43475
3324
0

649
-5535
91
-2417
6571
1939
0

-1390
-18286
-36
-10009
23893
3047
0

7668
-20846
-6
-7664
32859
3324
0

0.9
-9.4
3.1
-20.3
231.3

-1.6
-32.8
-1.5
-53.0
277.2

9.1
-37.1
-0.3
-49.7
309.5

93232
47239
0
17949
28043

70786
44972
33
8544
17236

72259
48865
2226
8854
12315

80521
54999
5965
8328
11228

86199
58546
8484
9324
9845

-688
-1971
959
340
-16

-723
-3839
3154
-28
-10

-1044
-5945
4630
237
34

-0.9
-3.9
75.7
4.0
-0.1

-0.9
-6.5
112.2
-0.3
-0.1

-1.2
-9.2
120.1
2.6
0.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

12372

13252

13650

-281

-393

-276

-2.2

-2.9

-2.0

10089

10135

10734

13366

15324

-51

-37

-58

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

155460

124696

151512

183137

207062

240

-263

535

0.2

-0.1

0.3

68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592

45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917

50002
29451
20551
43015
26581
31913

59683
33282
26401
51827
33944
37682

65773
34852
30921
58343
40832
42113

351
206
144
171
-284
3

338
180
157
84
-694
9

341
174
167
172
5
17

0.7
0.7
0.7
0.4
-1.1
0.0

0.6
0.5
0.6
0.2
-2.0
0.0

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.0

44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188

21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512

16715
43105
34377
25599
19942
11774

13909
49317
43883
35117
22080
18831

12223
52501
48719
43546
25517
24557

138
-1101
-131
-548
-344
2226

-196
-3323
-350
-1194
-856
5656

-189
-5482
-1579
-1401
-818
10003

0.8
-2.5
-0.4
-2.1
-1.7
23.3

-1.4
-6.3
-0.8
-3.3
-3.7
42.9

-1.5
-9.5
-3.1
-3.1
-3.1
68.7

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2

547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1

553.3
265.5
9.3
101.2
54.9
35.7
86.7

508.3
190.8
9.4
112.7
59.8
40.3
95.2

508.5
178.6
8.3
115.9
61.0
42.5
102.2

-37.7
-32.7
-1.9
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
-2.1

-119.3
-105.9
-1.8
-1.9
-0.2
-2.2
-7.2

-135.5
-112.8
-1.9
-2.7
-0.5
-6.7
-10.9

-6.4
-11.0
-17.0
0.0
-0.8
-1.2
-2.4

-19.0
-35.7
-16.3
-1.7
-0.4
-5.1
-7.1

-21.0
-38.7
-18.2
-2.3
-0.8
-13.6
-9.6

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

78.2

71.8

71.9

-5.3

-16.9

-19.1

-6.4

-19.0

-21.0

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other

Source: PRIMES

72

NMS: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7

74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1

73.401
555.3
410.4
3.10
5367
2.43
7.54
996.4
39.4

71.813
820.6
316.4
3.62
7044
1.96
7.08
619.4
45.2

70.628
1102.7
256.1
4.00
8684
1.80
7.20
461.2
44.9

0.000
0.0
4.3
0.03
-89
-0.19
-0.51
-67.9
-4.7

0.000
0.0
-2.3
-0.03
-212
-0.44
-1.66
-145.3
-6.9

0.000
0.0
-4.0
-0.06
-252
-0.44
-1.92
-122.9
-8.8

0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
-1.6
-7.4
-6.4
-6.4
-10.6

0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-2.9
-18.4
-19.0
-19.0
-13.2

0.0
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.8
-19.8
-21.0
-21.0
-16.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9

35.5
57.3
54.5
87.3

28.4
46.2
46.3
69.8

24.1
38.5
40.1
58.0

0.2
0.2
-0.6
0.0

0.2
0.1
-0.9
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0

0.7
0.4
-1.1
0.0

0.6
0.2
-2.0
0.0

0.5
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83

0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84

0.36
1.84
2.02
1.28
1.34
2.72

0.22
1.68
1.89
1.15
1.19
2.53

0.17
1.55
1.76
1.05
1.04
2.43

-0.04
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0.00
-0.07

-0.11
-0.06
-0.04
-0.01
-0.04
-0.19

-0.10
-0.10
-0.05
-0.01
-0.16
-0.26

-11.0
-1.2
-0.7
-1.2
-0.1
-2.4

-34.6
-3.5
-2.2
-0.5
-3.2
-7.1

-37.8
-6.3
-2.8
-1.1
-13.6
-9.7

73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0

86987
8786
7386
6186
13
64617
24739
39035
11375
7200
6578
0
429

120162
8786
7750
16100
138
87388
31410
25716
21207
5141
34650
0
674

170559
8268
8025
26040
537
127688
52396
36447
34943
4534
51028
0
735

650
0
566
3926
0
-3842
-1433
-981
-6111
131
2689
0
429

5672
-1952
400
9808
0
-2585
-2003
-13941
-10378
-1061
22121
0
674

3820
-8280
220
9919
0
1961
-1589
-20603
-9811
-1016
32656
0
735

0.8
0.0
8.3
173.8
0.0
-5.6
-5.5
-2.5
-34.9
1.9
69.2

5.0
-18.2
5.4
155.9
0.0
-2.9
-6.0
-35.2
-32.9
-17.1
176.5

2.3
-50.0
2.8
61.5
0.0
1.6
-2.9
-36.1
-21.9
-18.3
177.7

32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6

32.9
51.7
28.0
35.1
17.0
18.2

39.0
48.1
29.8
60.5
13.5
47.0

44.1
41.1
38.9
62.2
10.4
51.7

-2.3
-1.2
1.3
10.4
0.3
10.1

-1.8
-3.9
-1.2
30.1
-2.5
32.6

-1.2
-2.2
-1.0
24.3
-10.0
34.3

-6.5
-2.4
4.9
41.9
1.7
125.1

-4.5
-7.5
-3.9
99.4
-15.7
227.4

-2.7
-5.0
-2.5
64.3
-49.0
196.7

468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6

617.3
72.6
470.8
50.1
23.2
0.7

756.0
66.6
606.5
48.6
33.6
0.7

901.2
62.3
747.1
48.1
42.9
0.8

-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0

-0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.0

-0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.4
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8410

10527

12760

-0.7

-2.5

-2.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9

305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2

438.9
301.0
133.6
4.3

557.0
412.3
140.2
4.5

655.3
501.3
149.4
4.6

-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.0

-0.3
0.3
-0.6
0.0

-0.4
0.5
-0.8
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

-0.1
0.1
-0.4
0.1

-0.1
0.1
-0.6
0.1

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

790

679

594

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331

22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54

31913
1064
14996
12467
1192
2138
57

37682
917
16735
16349
969
2651
61

42113
767
19122
18689
879
2593
63

3
0
1
4
-2
0
0

9
0
4
9
-5
1
0

17
0
6
16
-6
1
0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.7
0.0
0.1

23.9
25.0

31.4
26.7

30.3
30.1

27.3
30.6

25.3
29.5

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

Source: PRIMES

73

EU27: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101

937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329

935850
157239
123005
183635
253537
218435
34191
142811
23173
2732
15529

848746
107545
58705
109116
202766
370614
36451
254179
43406
12564
24014

859460
110646
49114
89971
149762
459967
37555
305431
55687
34376
26918

57663
-8636
-420
-1270
0
67989
2474
45657
7338
1217
11303

97677
-35444
-466
-410
-32926
166924
2075
119357
17005
9691
18796

126815
-20878
-540
221
-71545
219557
1144
150066
17556
29755
21037

6.6
-5.2
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
45.2
7.8
47.0
46.3
80.4
267.5

13.0
-24.8
-0.8
-0.4
-14.0
81.9
6.0
88.5
64.4
337.3
360.2

17.3
-15.9
-1.1
0.2
-32.3
91.3
3.1
96.6
46.0
643.9
357.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321

817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687

992640
116998
595148
560406
34742
278955
1538

1155423
109062
647187
621430
25757
397699
1476

1155471
112858
616089
598874
17215
424784
1740

-55904
-20979
-17081
-17018
-63
-17767
-78

-116391
-28478
-39256
-36159
-3097
-48548
-110

-159857
-71815
-56288
-52297
-3991
-31753
-2

-5.3
-15.2
-2.8
-2.9
-0.2
-6.0
-4.8

-9.2
-20.7
-5.7
-5.5
-10.7
-10.9
-6.9

-12.2
-38.9
-8.4
-8.0
-18.8
-7.0
-0.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623

1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405

1880210
274238
669872
462590
253537
1538
218435

1951131
216607
652854
506815
202766
1476
370614

1959300
223504
609572
514755
149762
1740
459967

1758
-29615
-17501
-19037
0
-78
67989

-18715
-63922
-39722
-48958
-32926
-110
166924

-33043
-92693
-56828
-31532
-71545
-2
219557

0.1
-9.7
-2.5
-4.0
0.0
-4.8
45.2

-1.0
-22.8
-5.7
-8.8
-14.0
-6.9
81.9

-1.7
-29.3
-8.5
-5.8
-32.3
-0.1
91.3

27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4

18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9

14.6
35.6
24.6
13.5
11.6

11.1
33.5
26.0
10.4
19.0

11.4
31.1
26.3
7.6
23.5

-1.6
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
3.6

-3.1
-1.7
-2.2
-1.6
8.7

-4.5
-2.3
-1.1
-3.5
11.4

-9.8
-2.6
-4.0
-0.1
45.1

-22.0
-4.8
-7.9
-13.1
83.7

-28.1
-7.0
-4.2
-31.2
94.6

2561205
794718
291642
1474844

2993398
944823
376697
1671878

3552884
982718
668590
1901576

4073644
785921
967922
2319801

4451329
580476
1164893
2705960

-49282
0
114089
-163371

-90064
-127625
256919
-219359

-113088
-277312
289464
-125240

-1.4
0.0
20.6
-7.9

-2.2
-14.0
36.1
-8.6

-2.5
-32.3
33.1
-4.4

384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0

402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0

436726
200792
34464
141841
44684
14945
0

467843
153665
24348
151701
114827
23302
0

510146
168989
21068
145860
148047
26183
0

-15703
-27301
685
-15455
15108
11260
0

-20170
-61882
109
-37523
60432
18694
0

-5052
-90248
933
-14443
77784
20922
0

-3.5
-12.0
2.0
-9.8
51.1
305.6

-4.1
-28.7
0.5
-19.8
111.1
405.7

-1.0
-34.8
4.6
-9.0
110.7
397.7

840016
673728
2
38458
127829

818581
727122
637
19291
71530

831070
732710
27027
17395
53938

849901
722144
62820
16619
48319

823939
683036
83177
16826
40899

-7920
-18524
10124
1959
-1479

-5058
-39008
31496
2703
-248

-8199
-56192
45806
1982
205

-0.9
-2.5
59.9
12.7
-2.7

-0.6
-5.1
100.5
19.4
-0.5

-1.0
-7.6
122.6
13.3
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

86644

86114

83375

-1942

-3241

-3691

-2.2

-3.6

-4.2

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

109883

113783

115106

-503

-382

-482

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1071205

1126314

1284290

1399556

1450192

3130

2368

6928

0.2

0.2

0.5

372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091

342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258

376667
235111
141556
324921
191374
391327

409129
246585
162544
354884
215024
420519

423932
246664
177268
369486
234742
422032

2597
1909
688
1041
-527
18

2608
1814
794
1434
-1721
46

1996
1332
664
1827
3040
65

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.7
0.5
0.4
-0.8
0.0

0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
1.3
0.0

128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892

58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802

46721
519177
287337
263327
81993
85734

40871
515195
318958
307876
90810
125846

35434
482679
330989
341067
101258
158765

-598
-12292
-3385
-3258
-1930
24593

-740
-34087
-7442
-5606
-1718
51961

-1056
-52447
-11890
-6827
25
79122

-1.3
-2.3
-1.2
-1.2
-2.3
40.2

-1.8
-6.2
-2.3
-1.8
-1.9
70.3

-2.9
-9.8
-3.5
-2.0
0.0
99.3

4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0

3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9

3830.2
1281.2
120.8
593.2
490.0
263.8
1081.1

3645.8
1073.9
105.4
609.5
505.2
266.2
1085.5

3571.8
1109.9
89.0
592.6
498.2
242.9
1039.2

-212.7
-152.9
-12.9
-18.5
-3.8
-1.8
-22.8

-485.9
-347.8
-16.4
-29.4
-4.5
-14.9
-72.9

-608.6
-404.6
-15.0
-28.9
-5.3
-45.9
-109.0

-5.3
-10.7
-9.6
-3.0
-0.8
-0.7
-2.1

-11.8
-24.5
-13.5
-4.6
-0.9
-5.3
-6.3

-14.6
-26.7
-14.4
-4.7
-1.0
-15.9
-9.5

100.0

94.8

95.5

90.9

89.1

-5.3

-12.1

-15.2

-5.3

-11.8

-14.6

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

74

EU27: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6

483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7

492.838
11044.1
170.2
3.82
7209
2.04
7.77
346.8
51.5

496.408
13825.4
141.1
3.93
8206
1.87
7.34
263.7
57.7

494.784
16315.6
120.1
3.96
8997
1.82
7.22
218.9
57.3

0.000
0.0
0.2
0.00
-100
-0.12
-0.43
-19.3
-2.9

0.000
0.0
-1.4
-0.04
-181
-0.23
-0.98
-35.1
-5.2

0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.07
-229
-0.28
-1.23
-37.3
-6.9

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.4
-5.3
-5.3
-5.3
-5.4

0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.2
-10.9
-11.8
-11.8
-8.3

0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
-2.5
-13.1
-14.6
-14.6
-10.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7

74.9
81.6
78.0
93.1

65.1
71.9
69.1
79.9

57.5
63.7
63.5
68.0

0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.3
-0.6
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.8
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.4
-0.8
0.0

0.5
0.5
1.3
0.0

0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90

0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91

0.24
1.89
1.57
1.51
1.38
2.76

0.18
1.76
1.49
1.42
1.24
2.58

0.17
1.64
1.40
1.35
1.03
2.46

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.06
-0.09
-0.08
-0.02
-0.06
-0.17

-0.06
-0.14
-0.08
-0.02
-0.21
-0.26

-10.9
-2.1
-3.7
-1.1
-0.4
-2.1

-24.1
-4.9
-5.2
-1.3
-4.5
-6.3

-26.2
-7.8
-5.1
-1.5
-17.0
-9.5

697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022

871734
139130
117294
112014
1661
501636
155909
165889
236104
68238
27478
0
3927

1057773
114872
121543
212892
27696
580769
224291
128480
287070
43118
116145
0
5955

1247539
71626
124185
280248
57376
714104
276321
159330
352793
35987
159398
0
6597

22412
0
4918
33208
0
-15714
-7732
-4554
-18265
-1648
6183
0
2570

74299
-5896
3662
83936
22831
-30235
-1426
-43555
-42627
-6033
57542
0
4438

91222
-34810
2016
95745
46940
-18668
2146
-72030
-26506
657
74257
0
4953

2.6
0.0
4.4
42.1
0.0
-3.0
-4.7
-2.7
-7.2
-2.4
29.0

7.6
-4.9
3.1
65.1
469.3
-4.9
-0.6
-25.3
-12.9
-12.3
98.2

7.9
-32.7
1.6
51.9
449.8
-2.5
0.8
-31.1
-7.0
1.9
87.2

189.5

292.5

301.5

35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9

37.4
46.5
19.1
51.3
27.7
23.6

42.6
44.0
23.2
58.1
19.3
38.8

45.6
40.7
26.6
57.6
13.0
44.5

-1.8
-1.9
0.5
5.8
0.4
5.5

-2.1
-4.4
0.5
12.9
-2.6
15.6

-1.6
-4.3
0.8
11.6
-5.8
17.4

-4.6
-3.9
2.9
12.9
1.4
30.1

-4.7
-9.0
2.1
28.5
-12.1
66.8

-3.5
-9.6
3.0
25.3
-30.6
64.1

5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6

6595.5
517.0
5126.8
456.8
455.1
39.8

7621.1
504.4
5954.9
491.2
625.1
45.5

8423.5
494.2
6589.1
522.8
767.7
49.6

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.0

-1.3
0.1
1.1
-2.6
0.1
0.0

-1.5
0.1
1.3
-3.0
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13383

15352

17025

-1.0

-2.7

-2.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8

2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0

2684.4
1959.3
425.5
299.6

3201.0
2426.1
444.7
330.2

3644.8
2825.4
464.2
355.2

-0.4
0.3
-0.7
0.0

-0.9
0.8
-1.7
0.1

-0.9
1.1
-2.1
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

232

223

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044

338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481

391327
7473
173948
140465
8595
54631
6215

420519
6706
174117
164509
6746
61702
6738

422032
5745
166336
174744
6257
61904
7046

18
1
13
17
-17
4
1

46
1
29
49
-45
10
1

65
1
33
64
-46
11
2

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

38.9
50.8

39.8
53.6

36.9
55.2

32.6
53.8

28.4
50.1

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

Source: PRIMES

75

EU28: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534

963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012

967836
166465
126249
184634
253537
236951
37756
149636
23605
3923
22031

901469
120629
62087
110451
202766
405536
40264
263461
44636
24030
33146

942894
125534
52853
91392
153233
519883
41705
317068
57517
66069
37524

63536
-9945
-420
-1345
0
75246
2891
46469
7615
1615
16657

115726
-36013
-466
-430
-32926
185562
2359
121200
17495
17981
26527

164173
-20878
-540
221
-71543
256914
1144
152856
18087
54829
29998

7.0
-5.6
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
46.5
8.3
45.0
47.6
69.9
309.9

14.7
-23.0
-0.7
-0.4
-14.0
84.4
6.2
85.2
64.5
297.2
400.8

21.1
-14.3
-1.0
0.2
-31.8
97.7
2.8
93.1
45.9
487.8
398.6

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259

868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975

1060438
129017
627768
590721
37047
302432
1222

1251315
123743
697273
668080
29193
429055
1244

1289507
131179
686380
664407
21973
470519
1429

-58696
-21642
-17446
-17360
-86
-19530
-78

-127902
-29629
-40989
-37780
-3209
-57174
-110

-179295
-74613
-57919
-53823
-4096
-46761
-2

-5.2
-14.4
-2.7
-2.9
-0.2
-6.1
-6.0

-9.3
-19.3
-5.6
-5.4
-9.9
-11.8
-8.1

-12.2
-36.3
-7.8
-7.5
-15.7
-9.0
-0.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487

1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549

1979494
295482
705237
487066
253537
1222
236951

2099105
244372
705681
539506
202766
1244
405536

2175991
256713
682824
561910
153233
1429
519883

4841
-31587
-17866
-20875
0
-78
75246

-12175
-65642
-41455
-57604
-32926
-110
185562

-15121
-95491
-58459
-46540
-71543
-2
256914

0.2
-9.7
-2.5
-4.1
0.0
-6.0
46.5

-0.6
-21.2
-5.5
-9.6
-14.0
-8.1
84.4

-0.7
-27.1
-7.9
-7.6
-31.8
-0.1
97.7

27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2

19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2

14.9
35.6
24.6
12.8
12.0

11.6
33.6
25.7
9.7
19.3

11.8
31.4
25.8
7.0
23.9

-1.6
-1.0
-1.1
0.0
3.8

-3.0
-1.8
-2.6
-1.5
8.9

-4.3
-2.5
-1.9
-3.2
11.9

-9.9
-2.7
-4.3
-0.2
46.2

-20.7
-5.0
-9.1
-13.5
85.4

-26.6
-7.2
-7.0
-31.4
99.1

2618738
794718
314786
1509233

3118298
944823
407604
1765871

3724589
982718
715069
2026803

4328103
785921
1042589
2499594

4846773
593929
1253193
2999651

-50514
0
122167
-172681

-94419
-127625
281907
-248702

-117125
-277304
314210
-154032

-1.3
0.0
20.6
-7.9

-2.1
-14.0
37.1
-9.0

-2.4
-31.8
33.5
-4.9

393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0

424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0

466584
209023
36455
155133
45493
20480
0

510789
171290
25466
166031
116795
31208
0

568129
194522
21963
166065
150179
35399
0

-13574
-29200
733
-17128
15419
16602
0

-16743
-63336
130
-41168
61224
26407
0

-772
-92484
918
-17332
78274
29852
0

-2.8
-12.3
2.1
-9.9
51.3
428.1

-3.2
-27.0
0.5
-19.9
110.2
550.1

-0.1
-32.2
4.4
-9.5
108.9
538.2

867592
696742
2
38458
132391

846345
750941
637
19291
75474

868001
766269
27139
17432
57161

903516
772175
63373
16740
51227

898007
752308
85192
17040
43467

-8249
-18866
10146
1960
-1489

-6384
-40629
31775
2698
-228

-8634
-57718
46896
1977
211

-0.9
-2.4
59.7
12.7
-2.5

-0.7
-5.0
100.6
19.2
-0.4

-1.0
-7.1
122.5
13.1
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

80396

88538

89547

90014

88313

-2019

-3299

-3777

-2.2

-3.5

-4.1

101612

112692

113259

117749

119620

-517

-401

-508

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1109885

1180941

1358559

1514448

1626822

3499

3165

18301

0.3

0.2

1.1

384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441

363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426

403873
243448
160425
344703
200076
409907

449947
257047
192900
383913
228950
451637

485844
260089
225755
410480
262950
467548

2626
1935
690
1385
-531
19

2635
1842
793
2104
-1622
49

2014
1359
655
2780
13439
67

0.7
0.8
0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.7
0.4
0.6
-0.7
0.0

0.4
0.5
0.3
0.7
5.4
0.0

136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483

68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041

58097
549025
299121
275564
82869
93884

49556
563030
337914
327123
92467
144358

41905
550814
358077
371141
105549
199337

-669
-12592
-3593
-3304
-1838
25496

-1010
-35817
-12395
-5924
-1563
59874

-1579
-54039
-23943
-7099
301
104660

-1.1
-2.2
-1.2
-1.2
-2.2
37.3

-2.0
-6.0
-3.5
-1.8
-1.7
70.9

-3.6
-8.9
-6.3
-1.9
0.3
110.5

4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9

3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5

4065.8
1353.0
122.5
665.1
515.4
274.7
1135.0

3976.4
1183.7
105.9
704.7
543.7
264.2
1174.3

4016.4
1264.5
89.4
720.5
551.3
225.0
1165.6

-226.1
-164.4
-13.1
-19.1
-3.9
-2.8
-22.8

-518.2
-362.1
-16.4
-30.8
-4.4
-31.0
-73.6

-659.5
-420.3
-15.0
-31.5
-5.8
-75.4
-111.5

-5.3
-10.8
-9.6
-2.8
-0.7
-1.0
-2.0

-11.5
-23.4
-13.4
-4.2
-0.8
-10.5
-5.9

-14.1
-24.9
-14.4
-4.2
-1.0
-25.1
-8.7

100.0

96.7

98.3

96.1

97.1

-5.5

-12.5

-15.9

-5.3

-11.5

-14.1

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

76

EU28: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6

550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5

569.992
11370.5
174.1
3.47
6534
2.05
7.13
357.6
52.3

582.152
14408.7
145.7
3.61
7435
1.89
6.83
276.0
58.1

587.546
17374.7
125.2
3.70
8249
1.85
6.84
231.2
57.8

0.000
0.0
0.4
0.01
-89
-0.12
-0.40
-19.9
-3.0

0.000
0.0
-0.8
-0.02
-162
-0.23
-0.89
-36.0
-5.6

0.000
0.0
-0.9
-0.03
-199
-0.29
-1.12
-38.0
-7.6

0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
-1.3
-5.5
-5.3
-5.3
-5.5

0.0
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
-2.1
-11.0
-11.5
-11.5
-8.8

0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-2.4
-13.5
-14.1
-14.1
-11.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7

76.4
81.4
79.6
93.6

66.9
72.2
71.0
81.3

59.6
64.2
67.2
69.8

0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.4
-0.5
0.0

0.2
0.4
3.4
0.0

0.7
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.6
-0.7
0.0

0.4
0.7
5.4
0.0

0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91

0.24
1.91
1.65
1.50
1.37
2.77

0.19
1.77
1.57
1.42
1.15
2.60

0.18
1.64
1.48
1.34
0.86
2.49

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.06
-0.10
-0.08
-0.02
-0.13
-0.16

-0.06
-0.16
-0.07
-0.02
-0.35
-0.24

-11.1
-2.1
-3.4
-1.1
-0.8
-2.0

-23.0
-5.1
-4.7
-1.3
-9.9
-5.9

-24.5
-8.8
-4.6
-1.7
-28.9
-8.7

725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040

914219
139130
129406
113708
1661
530314
160992
175981
249304
71743
28124
0
5163

1122194
114872
134369
220170
38157
614627
233530
138418
305290
45148
118056
0
7716

1349943
73342
138040
293933
69644
774984
294581
180986
383588
37891
163868
0
8652

25397
0
5472
34289
0
-14365
-7571
-4554
-18305
-1712
6467
0
3739

84109
-5896
4205
87888
33261
-35349
-2210
-46273
-47508
-6097
58398
0
6131

104817
-34809
2221
101679
59061
-23335
2719
-76517
-30829
594
76501
0
6916

2.9
0.0
4.4
43.2
0.0
-2.6
-4.5
-2.5
-6.8
-2.3
29.9

8.1
-4.9
3.2
66.4
679.3
-5.4
-0.9
-25.1
-13.5
-11.9
97.9

8.4
-32.2
1.6
52.9
558.1
-2.9
0.9
-29.7
-7.4
1.6
87.6

262.6

386.9

398.5

35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3

37.4
46.5
18.8
50.4
26.4
24.0

42.1
44.0
22.8
56.8
18.2
38.7

45.4
41.0
26.0
55.4
12.3
43.1

-2.0
-2.0
0.5
6.0
0.4
5.6

-2.7
-4.6
0.4
13.0
-2.5
15.5

-2.3
-4.5
0.8
11.4
-5.3
16.7

-5.2
-4.1
2.8
13.5
1.4
30.7

-6.1
-9.5
1.7
29.7
-12.1
67.1

-4.8
-9.9
3.1
26.0
-30.2
63.4

5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4

6896.7
618.6
5301.1
465.4
466.6
45.1

8263.5
625.7
6414.1
511.6
656.7
55.4

9492.9
606.4
7428.9
562.1
832.3
63.2

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-1.0
0.0
0.0

-1.4
0.1
1.1
-2.7
0.1
0.0

-1.5
0.1
1.4
-3.2
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229

10441

12100

14195

16157

-0.9

-2.4

-2.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3

2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8

2946.9
2204.6
437.3
305.0

3611.1
2810.0
463.0
338.1

4230.5
3374.7
490.4
365.3

-0.4
0.3
-0.7
0.0

-0.9
0.8
-1.8
0.1

-1.0
1.2
-2.2
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0

261

255

259

251

243

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295

350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673

409907
8911
177497
151636
8864
56516
6483

451637
8329
182365
181056
7038
65667
7182

467548
7120
181011
196786
6693
68312
7624

19
1
13
17
-17
4
1

49
1
30
51
-46
11
1

67
1
34
67
-48
11
2

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

38.5
51.8

39.3
52.8

36.3
54.1

31.8
52.3

27.7
48.4

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

Source: PRIMES

77

Europe-30: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595

1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103

1210632
166999
255032
269995
260539
258068
53075
154851
24049
3972
22121

1174921
120907
186406
227523
209908
430177
56955
270698
45163
24120
33241

1168215
125829
134689
203503
157814
546380
58958
325206
58402
66200
37615

52302
-9945
-3174
-10980
0
76400
3132
47272
7703
1636
16657

115029
-36062
-466
-3511
-32926
187995
2667
123332
17434
18033
26528

158796
-20886
-540
-5593
-73948
259764
1487
155296
18081
54902
29998

4.5
-5.6
-1.2
-3.9
0.0
42.1
6.3
43.9
47.1
70.0
304.8

10.9
-23.0
-0.2
-1.5
-13.6
77.6
4.9
83.7
62.9
296.3
395.2

15.7
-14.2
-0.4
-2.7
-31.9
90.6
2.6
91.4
44.8
485.9
393.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710

684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272

875845
129674
521621
482355
39266
224732
-182

1039423
124151
594743
563645
31097
320610
-81

1124259
131500
625217
601908
23309
367495
47

-47889
-21798
-15043
-15027
-16
-10971
-78

-127205
-29758
-41933
-38515
-3418
-55403
-110

-175139
-74714
-59040
-54754
-4286
-41383
-2

-5.2
-14.4
-2.8
-3.0
0.0
-4.7
74.3

-10.9
-19.3
-6.6
-6.4
-9.9
-14.7
-385.7

-13.5
-36.2
-8.6
-8.3
-15.5
-10.1
-3.7

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557

1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725

2036637
296673
726813
494726
260539
-182
258068

2159373
245058
726178
548133
209908
-81
430177

2234551
257329
701983
570998
157814
47
546380

4413
-31743
-18217
-21950
0
-78
76400

-12176
-65820
-42400
-58915
-32926
-110
187995

-16343
-95601
-59580
-46976
-73948
-2
259764

0.2
-9.7
-2.4
-4.2
0.0
74.3
42.1

-0.6
-21.2
-5.5
-9.7
-13.6
-385.7
77.6

-0.7
-27.1
-7.8
-7.6
-31.9
-3.7
90.6

26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9

18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1

14.6
35.7
24.3
12.8
12.7

11.3
33.6
25.4
9.7
19.9

11.5
31.4
25.6
7.1
24.5

-1.6
-1.0
-1.1
0.0
3.7

-3.0
-1.8
-2.6
-1.5
8.8

-4.2
-2.4
-1.9
-3.2
11.7

-9.9
-2.7
-4.5
-0.2
41.7

-20.7
-5.0
-9.2
-13.1
78.6

-26.6
-7.1
-6.9
-31.4
92.0

2794856
818651
465941
1510263

3323905
971593
583374
1768938

3940360
1009830
898386
2032145

4566772
813578
1242863
2510332

5098853
611669
1464241
3022943

-51229
0
125991
-177220

-95567
-127625
284790
-252733

-118784
-286617
318136
-150302

-1.3
0.0
16.3
-8.0

-2.0
-13.6
29.7
-9.1

-2.3
-31.9
27.8
-4.7

394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0

425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0

468467
209152
36633
155155
47047
20480
0

513640
171311
25553
166186
119381
31208
0

572944
194522
22020
167302
153701
35399
0

-14119
-29266
751
-17977
15770
16602
0

-17239
-63336
149
-41947
61487
26407
0

-292
-92484
909
-16749
78180
29852
0

-2.9
-12.3
2.1
-10.4
50.4
428.1

-3.2
-27.0
0.6
-20.2
106.2
550.1

-0.1
-32.2
4.3
-9.1
103.5
538.2

884427
713481
2
38512
132432

866713
771184
637
19379
75512

888404
785912
27572
17734
57187

924981
791449
65158
17131
51243

919614
771122
87532
17486
43474

-8548
-19281
10243
1979
-1489

-6126
-41361
32758
2712
-236

-8217
-58646
48219
2007
203

-1.0
-2.4
59.1
12.6
-2.5

-0.7
-5.0
101.1
18.8
-0.5

-0.9
-7.1
122.7
13.0
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

83789

92950

93897

94431

91929

-2317

-3369

-3894

-2.4

-3.4

-4.1

103762

115166

115464

119885

121797

-523

-406

-514

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1145388

1220510

1402583

1561417

1674169

3562

3249

18397

0.3

0.2

1.1

394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860

375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964

416473
252406
164067
354990
208247
422873

463733
266683
197050
394801
237840
465043

500119
269840
230280
421391
272151
480508

2668
1970
698
1414
-539
19

2699
1889
810
2154
-1654
50

2090
1413
677
2834
13405
68

0.6
0.8
0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.7
0.4
0.5
-0.7
0.0

0.4
0.5
0.3
0.7
5.2
0.0

137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359

69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512

59063
568120
303057
291062
83906
97375

50178
581551
342361
344742
94015
148570

42478
567966
362576
389953
107747
203450

-747
-12809
-3637
-3364
-1777
25896

-1153
-36757
-12817
-6020
-1480
61475

-1662
-55163
-24681
-7229
341
106791

-1.2
-2.2
-1.2
-1.1
-2.1
36.2

-2.2
-5.9
-3.6
-1.7
-1.6
70.6

-3.8
-8.9
-6.4
-1.8
0.3
110.5

4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6

4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4

4146.2
1354.5
131.4
676.3
527.7
285.2
1171.2

4054.7
1184.8
114.8
716.4
555.3
274.6
1208.9

4091.1
1268.0
96.5
732.6
561.5
234.9
1197.6

-230.2
-166.7
-13.8
-19.8
-3.9
-2.9
-23.0

-524.8
-364.1
-16.6
-32.7
-4.4
-31.2
-75.8

-664.3
-419.5
-15.3
-33.5
-5.8
-75.6
-114.7

-5.3
-11.0
-9.5
-2.8
-0.7
-1.0
-1.9

-11.5
-23.5
-12.6
-4.4
-0.8
-10.2
-5.9

-14.0
-24.9
-13.7
-4.4
-1.0
-24.3
-8.7

100.0

96.9

98.5

96.4

97.2

-5.5

-12.5

-15.8

-5.3

-11.5

-14.0

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

78

Europe-30: High renewables case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9

562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4

582.130
11898.8
171.2
3.50
6769
2.04
7.12
348.5
42.0

594.587
15057.8
143.4
3.63
7681
1.88
6.82
269.3
46.9

600.252
18137.4
123.2
3.72
8495
1.83
6.82
225.6
49.0

0.000
0.0
0.4
0.01
-88
-0.12
-0.40
-19.3
-2.4

0.000
0.0
-0.8
-0.02
-161
-0.23
-0.88
-34.8
-5.5

0.000
0.0
-0.9
-0.03
-198
-0.28
-1.11
-36.6
-7.2

0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
-1.3
-5.5
-5.3
-5.3
-5.4

0.0
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
-2.0
-11.0
-11.5
-11.5
-10.4

0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-2.3
-13.3
-14.0
-14.0
-12.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4

76.3
81.4
80.0
93.4

66.8
72.1
71.3
81.1

59.5
64.1
67.3
69.6

0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.4
-0.5
0.0

0.2
0.4
3.3
0.0

0.6
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.5
-0.7
0.0

0.4
0.7
5.2
0.0

0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90

0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91

0.23
1.90
1.62
1.49
1.37
2.77

0.18
1.76
1.54
1.41
1.15
2.60

0.17
1.63
1.46
1.33
0.86
2.49

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.05

-0.05
-0.10
-0.08
-0.02
-0.12
-0.16

-0.06
-0.16
-0.07
-0.02
-0.34
-0.24

-11.2
-2.1
-3.5
-1.1
-0.8
-1.9

-23.1
-5.2
-4.9
-1.3
-9.6
-5.9

-24.4
-8.8
-4.8
-1.7
-28.1
-8.8

769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040

963914
142580
171008
115821
1705
532800
162370
176074
250786
71898
28879
0
5163

1175557
118322
177954
223035
38267
617979
235554
138433
306772
45225
119834
0
7716

1406336
75575
182097
298227
69875
780563
298189
180986
385970
37955
167000
0
8652

26105
0
5792
34860
0
-14547
-7420
-4554
-18652
-1700
6619
0
3739

84318
-5896
4640
88017
33261
-35703
-1985
-46273
-48135
-6087
58661
0
6131

104778
-36000
2758
102003
59061
-23044
2941
-76517
-30363
598
76323
0
6916

2.8
0.0
3.5
43.1
0.0
-2.7
-4.4
-2.5
-6.9
-2.3
29.7

7.7
-4.7
2.7
65.2
664.3
-5.5
-0.8
-25.1
-13.6
-11.9
95.9

8.1
-32.3
1.5
52.0
546.1
-2.9
1.0
-29.7
-7.3
1.6
84.2

262.6

386.9

398.5

35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6

37.3
46.7
17.9
53.1
25.6
27.4

42.0
44.3
21.8
59.0
17.8
41.2

45.4
41.4
25.1
57.4
12.0
45.4

-2.1
-1.9
0.5
5.8
0.3
5.5

-2.7
-4.4
0.4
12.5
-2.4
14.9

-2.2
-4.4
0.8
10.9
-5.2
16.1

-5.2
-4.0
2.7
12.4
1.3
25.1

-6.1
-9.1
1.6
26.9
-11.8
56.5

-4.7
-9.6
3.2
23.3
-30.3
54.7

5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4

7097.8
626.8
5454.5
488.2
482.0
46.2

8486.6
634.4
6583.8
536.1
675.6
56.7

9728.2
615.5
7607.6
587.4
853.1
64.6

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-1.0
0.0
0.0

-1.4
0.1
1.1
-2.7
0.1
0.0

-1.6
0.1
1.4
-3.2
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320

10531

12193

14273

16207

-0.9

-2.3

-2.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5

2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0

3059.5
2256.0
453.1
350.4

3742.7
2879.7
479.5
383.5

4375.9
3461.3
507.0
407.7

-0.4
0.3
-0.8
0.0

-0.9
0.8
-1.9
0.1

-1.0
1.2
-2.3
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0

257

253

257

249

241

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229

361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394

422873
9088
183293
155004
9262
59006
7218

465043
8501
187799
185375
7361
68097
7910

480508
7272
185944
201523
6982
70492
8296

19
1
14
18
-17
4
1

50
1
31
52
-47
11
1

68
1
34
68
-48
12
2

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

38.9
51.4

39.6
52.0

36.5
53.5

31.9
51.8

27.8
48.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.1

Source: PRIMES

79

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

80

APPENDIX 3: “12% renewables share in 2010” case results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

81

EU25: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101

898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322

892051
146468
116780
171122
248776
208905
31986
136548
22993
2690
14689

780333
101031
52753
97988
205782
322779
34034
218725
40729
8013
21278

764966
106456
43279
80031
156672
378527
34923
247648
53691
16542
25724

55635
-8059
-399
-1057
0
65150
2108
44141
7207
1200
10495

73812
-30051
-205
-361
-22856
127286
1831
89533
14488
5267
16168

79863
-13741
-171
226
-54136
147685
1042
98768
15749
12148
19978

6.7
-5.2
-0.3
-0.6
0.0
45.3
7.1
47.8
45.7
80.5
250.3

10.4
-22.9
-0.4
-0.4
-10.0
65.1
5.7
69.3
55.2
191.7
316.4

11.7
-11.4
-0.4
0.3
-25.7
64.0
3.1
66.3
41.5
276.5
347.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181

801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144

969632
111743
584029
545723
38306
271700
2159

1144127
102115
648443
616890
31553
391459
2110

1152738
109241
625578
601216
24362
415719
2200

-54643
-20544
-15669
-15634
-35
-18352
-77

-87564
-26279
-21422
-19785
-1637
-39851
-12

-112829
-63679
-26871
-25034
-1837
-22278
-1

-5.3
-15.5
-2.6
-2.8
-0.1
-6.3
-3.4

-7.1
-20.5
-3.2
-3.1
-4.9
-9.2
-0.6

-8.9
-36.8
-4.1
-4.0
-7.0
-5.1
-0.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855

1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499

1813524
258212
652650
442822
248776
2159
208905

1871584
203146
648321
489447
205782
2110
322779

1862272
215697
613424
495750
156672
2200
378527

992
-28603
-16068
-19409
0
-77
65150

-13752
-56331
-21627
-40212
-22856
-12
127286

-32966
-77419
-27042
-22052
-54136
-1
147685

0.1
-10.0
-2.4
-4.2
0.0
-3.4
45.3

-0.7
-21.7
-3.2
-7.6
-10.0
-0.6
65.1

-1.7
-26.4
-4.2
-4.3
-25.7
-0.1
64.0

27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4

18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8

14.2
36.0
24.4
13.7
11.5

10.9
34.6
26.2
11.0
17.2

11.6
32.9
26.6
8.4
20.3

-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
0.0
3.6

-2.9
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
6.9

-3.9
-0.9
-0.7
-2.7
8.1

-10.0
-2.5
-4.3
-0.1
45.2

-21.1
-2.5
-6.9
-9.3
66.3

-25.1
-2.5
-2.6
-24.4
66.9

2455674
780056
272788
1402830

2900835
921193
359249
1620392

3436495
964265
640851
1831379

3935119
797614
898338
2239167

4280133
607261
1092825
2580046

-46690
0
108307
-154997

-70656
-88592
214487
-196550

-86466
-209830
249102
-125738

-1.3
0.0
20.3
-7.8

-1.8
-10.0
31.4
-8.1

-2.0
-25.7
29.5
-4.6

355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0

385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0

416917
188674
32410
137878
43799
14156
0

444834
144106
23613
151915
104450
20749
0

483017
164817
20863
145014
127108
25215
0

-15324
-26275
777
-14948
14652
10471
0

-17937
-54396
302
-30816
50831
16142
0

-7021
-75494
1069
-10234
57684
19954
0

-3.5
-12.2
2.5
-9.8
50.3
284.2

-3.9
-27.4
1.3
-16.9
94.8
350.3

-1.4
-31.4
5.4
-6.6
83.1
379.3

797634
642275
2
31035
124322

796450
710448
637
17261
68104

806265
711806
26888
17186
50386

820390
712790
46701
15958
44941

791063
681157
56156
15808
37942

-6632
-17116
10095
1936
-1547

-3705
-21234
15696
2140
-307

-6002
-26946
19781
1075
88

-0.8
-2.3
60.1
12.7
-3.0

-0.4
-2.9
50.6
15.5
-0.7

-0.8
-3.8
54.4
7.3
0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

79696

78960

75355

-1802

-2206

-2779

-2.2

-2.7

-3.6

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107358

110853

111727

-490

-347

-438

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1021913

1095359

1241027

1340618

1372376

3020

2114

1923

0.2

0.2

0.1

341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198

330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020

359040
222660
136379
312870
187966
381151

384970
230133
154837
339636
210474
405538

393674
226274
167400
352280
224091
402331

2619
1901
719
904
-521
18

2568
1741
827
895
-1382
32

2109
1342
767
995
-1226
45

0.7
0.9
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.7
0.0

0.5
0.6
0.5
0.3
-0.5
0.0

123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053

56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465

44646
505494
275806
256211
78389
80481

38760
511703
304031
298560
85834
101730

33466
486995
315569
329035
94876
112435

-556
-11848
-3369
-3099
-1788
23680

-660
-18192
-5695
-4358
-1857
32876

-558
-24842
-5828
-5008
-449
38609

-1.2
-2.3
-1.2
-1.2
-2.2
41.7

-1.7
-3.4
-1.8
-1.4
-2.1
47.7

-1.6
-4.9
-1.8
-1.5
-0.5
52.3

3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7

3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9

3677.0
1215.1
111.2
559.7
479.2
260.0
1051.9

3547.7
1034.0
102.1
570.6
492.2
269.6
1079.2

3518.2
1090.1
86.9
547.4
484.0
263.9
1045.9

-204.9
-146.8
-12.8
-17.3
-3.5
-1.8
-22.7

-380.9
-299.3
-11.9
-24.6
-2.7
-6.2
-36.3

-436.8
-334.0
-12.7
-22.5
-2.8
-18.0
-47.0

-5.3
-10.8
-10.3
-3.0
-0.7
-0.7
-2.1

-9.7
-22.4
-10.4
-4.1
-0.5
-2.3
-3.3

-11.0
-23.5
-12.8
-3.9
-0.6
-6.4
-4.3

100.0

97.3

97.4

93.9

93.2

-5.4

-10.1

-11.6

-5.3

-9.7

-11.0

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

82

EU25: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7

452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2

464.054
10946.8
165.7
3.91
7405
2.03
7.92
335.9
52.1

469.270
13656.3
137.0
3.99
8386
1.90
7.56
259.8
59.5

469.365
16051.4
116.0
3.97
9119
1.89
7.50
219.2
60.1

0.000
0.0
0.1
0.00
-101
-0.11
-0.44
-18.7
-3.0

0.000
0.0
-1.0
-0.03
-151
-0.19
-0.81
-27.9
-4.1

0.000
0.0
-2.1
-0.07
-184
-0.20
-0.93
-27.2
-4.8

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.3
-5.3
-5.3
-5.3
-5.4

0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.8
-9.0
-9.7
-9.7
-6.4

0.0
0.0
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
-9.5
-11.0
-11.0
-7.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4

77.8
80.6
79.3
93.0

67.1
70.8
70.2
79.3

58.8
62.7
63.0
66.9

0.6
0.2
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.2
-0.5
0.0

0.3
0.2
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.7
0.0

0.5
0.3
-0.5
0.0

0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91

0.24
1.89
1.56
1.53
1.38
2.76

0.18
1.80
1.48
1.45
1.28
2.66

0.18
1.71
1.39
1.37
1.18
2.60

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.05
-0.05
-0.07
-0.01
-0.02
-0.09

-0.05
-0.07
-0.06
-0.01
-0.07
-0.12

-11.0
-2.1
-3.7
-1.0
-0.4
-2.1

-22.2
-3.0
-4.8
-0.8
-1.6
-3.3

-23.1
-3.8
-4.5
-0.8
-5.9
-4.3

661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022

833066
136430
108102
110612
1658
476264
145634
152347
228478
65077
26610
0
3752

998432
111389
111655
197261
20983
557144
207981
115015
287512
42583
106668
0
5365

1169772
74925
113742
263863
45495
671746
251457
148994
341190
35753
139430
0
6380

22559
0
4168
32221
0
-13830
-5237
-4189
-16960
-972
5896
0
2396

55851
-5547
3038
69637
16134
-27410
-980
-41790
-33695
-5347
49574
0
3848

73480
-26291
1541
80932
35131
-17833
3458
-62242
-18944
787
57829
0
4736

2.8
0.0
4.0
41.1
0.0
-2.8
-3.5
-2.7
-6.9
-1.5
28.5

5.9
-4.7
2.8
54.6
332.7
-4.7
-0.5
-26.7
-10.5
-11.2
86.8

6.7
-26.0
1.4
44.2
339.0
-2.6
1.4
-29.5
-5.3
2.3
70.9

176.6

253.7

288.3

36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7

37.8
47.1
18.7
51.5
28.1
23.5

43.3
45.0
22.2
57.2
20.3
36.9

45.9
41.8
25.1
56.2
14.2
42.0

-1.7
-2.0
0.8
5.8
0.4
5.4

-2.0
-3.5
0.3
11.6
-1.9
13.5

-1.5
-3.7
0.8
9.9
-4.5
14.4

-4.4
-4.0
4.5
12.6
1.4
29.8

-4.4
-7.3
1.5
25.5
-8.4
57.5

-3.3
-8.1
3.3
21.3
-24.2
52.1

5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6

6448.9
495.1
5017.0
445.5
451.6
39.7

7401.0
480.6
5781.6
476.5
616.8
45.5

8129.1
466.8
6359.6
503.4
749.8
49.5

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.0

-1.0
0.1
0.8
-2.0
0.1
0.0

-1.1
0.1
1.0
-2.3
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13897

15771

17319

-1.0

-2.2

-2.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1

2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0

2581.8
1891.4
401.3
289.0

3048.1
2312.2
420.2
315.6

3431.3
2658.1
437.5
335.7

-0.4
0.3
-0.7
0.0

-0.7
0.6
-1.3
0.0

-0.6
0.8
-1.4
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

223

214

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714

333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368

381151
7021
170190
135664
8290
54178
5808

405538
6275
168923
156865
6484
60785
6206

402331
5321
159876
164429
5985
60367
6353

18
1
13
16
-17
4
0

32
1
22
34
-34
8
1

45
1
25
44
-34
9
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

39.3
51.7

39.9
53.9

37.0
55.3

32.7
53.7

28.4
49.9

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

Source: PRIMES

83

EU15: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101

761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315

753408
62219
114420
165365
231522
179881
30263
112600
21919
2374
12726

640504
44799
50633
92686
188195
264191
32174
168379
38187
7244
18206

612763
53034
41445
75242
134636
308405
32973
188575
49642
14852
22363

43771
-6039
-398
-1055
0
51262
1846
33281
6539
1049
8547

60004
-15197
-195
-349
-18967
94712
1632
62155
13009
4799
13117

61029
-5584
-152
226
-42950
109490
959
66169
14735
10986
16642

6.2
-8.8
-0.3
-0.6
0.0
39.9
6.5
42.0
42.5
79.2
204.6

10.3
-25.3
-0.4
-0.4
-9.2
55.9
5.3
58.5
51.7
196.3
257.7

11.1
-9.5
-0.4
0.3
-24.2
55.0
3.0
54.1
42.2
284.2
290.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333

741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644

879392
118514
529246
500122
29124
227809
3823

1022839
99033
584797
563711
21087
335236
3773

1020453
105225
556362
543237
13124
353906
4961

-45033
-16567
-13513
-13710
197
-14953
-1

-72061
-24444
-18766
-17421
-1345
-28850
-1

-90390
-54728
-23056
-21664
-1392
-12605
-1

-4.9
-12.3
-2.5
-2.7
0.7
-6.2
0.0

-6.6
-19.8
-3.1
-3.0
-6.0
-7.9
0.0

-8.1
-34.2
-4.0
-3.8
-9.6
-3.4
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014

1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491

1585782
180733
596649
393174
231522
3823
179881

1611741
143832
583828
427922
188195
3773
264191

1579139
158259
543731
429148
134636
4961
308405

-1263
-22606
-13911
-16007
0
-1
51262

-12056
-39641
-18961
-29198
-18967
-1
94712

-29361
-60312
-23208
-12379
-42950
-1
109490

-0.1
-11.1
-2.3
-3.9
0.0
0.0
39.9

-0.7
-21.6
-3.1
-6.4
-9.2
0.0
55.9

-1.8
-27.6
-4.1
-2.8
-24.2
0.0
55.0

23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9

14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0

11.4
37.6
24.8
14.6
11.3

8.9
36.2
26.6
11.7
16.4

10.0
34.4
27.2
8.5
19.5

-1.4
-0.8
-1.0
0.0
3.2

-2.4
-0.9
-1.6
-1.1
6.0

-3.6
-0.8
-0.3
-2.5
7.2

-11.0
-2.2
-3.8
0.1
40.0

-21.0
-2.4
-5.7
-8.5
57.1

-26.2
-2.3
-1.0
-22.8
57.9

2138940
720059
259810
1159070

2576502
863760
343478
1369264

3042512
897389
608316
1536806

3427902
729447
846996
1851459

3662550
521845
1022405
2118301

-40238
0
97501
-137739

-56840
-73514
194972
-178298

-72895
-166474
236338
-142759

-1.3
0.0
19.1
-8.2

-1.6
-9.2
29.9
-8.8

-2.0
-24.2
30.1
-6.3

282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0

319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0

340138
135730
29412
128445
34335
12216
0

359581
103925
21283
142324
74339
17710
0

393375
124180
18550
136772
91983
21890
0

-15842
-20625
712
-12490
8029
8532
0

-17644
-38880
325
-21529
29338
13102
0

-12187
-60006
1077
-3063
33175
16630
0

-4.5
-13.2
2.5
-8.9
30.5
231.5

-4.7
-27.2
1.5
-13.1
65.2
284.4

-3.0
-32.6
6.2
-2.2
56.4
316.1

704402
595036
2
13085
96279

725664
665476
604
8717
50868

733976
662916
24662
8327
38071

740091
656343
42360
7652
33737

705307
620068
50512
6581
28147

-5973
-15170
9137
1591
-1530

-2761
-18844
14166
2191
-274

-4514
-23544
17991
934
105

-0.8
-2.2
58.9
23.6
-3.9

-0.4
-2.8
50.2
40.1
-0.8

-0.6
-3.7
55.3
16.5
0.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

67323

65636

61718

-1521

-1885

-2490

-2.2

-2.8

-3.9

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96624

97483

96394

-439

-314

-388

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

866453

970663

1089515

1157464

1165776

2780

2359

1851

0.3

0.2

0.2

272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606

284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102

309038
193209
115829
269854
161384
349238

325313
196862
128451
287829
176464
367858

327874
191410
136464
294015
183662
360225

2270
1695
575
733
-237
14

2255
1571
684
832
-753
26

1742
1157
585
901
-827
35

0.7
0.9
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.0

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.4
0.0

0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.4
0.0

79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865

35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953

27931
462383
241415
230610
58454
68722

24838
460794
259879
263280
63615
85058

21268
431522
265845
285130
69224
92787

-694
-10754
-3251
-2554
-1438
21469

-477
-16462
-5613
-3326
-1141
29379

-343
-22333
-5255
-3966
233
33515

-2.4
-2.3
-1.3
-1.1
-2.4
45.4

-1.9
-3.4
-2.1
-1.2
-1.8
52.8

-1.6
-4.9
-1.9
-1.4
0.3
56.5

3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5

3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8

3124.1
950.1
101.8
458.5
424.2
224.3
965.2

3019.8
829.0
92.7
457.7
432.2
228.0
980.2

2975.5
888.2
78.8
431.6
422.7
217.0
937.0

-166.7
-113.6
-10.9
-17.3
-3.0
-1.4
-20.6

-281.2
-207.5
-10.0
-23.0
-2.6
-5.3
-32.8

-335.5
-244.4
-10.7
-19.6
-2.5
-15.6
-42.8

-5.1
-10.7
-9.6
-3.6
-0.7
-0.6
-2.1

-8.5
-20.0
-9.8
-4.8
-0.6
-2.3
-3.2

-10.1
-21.6
-11.9
-4.3
-0.6
-6.7
-4.4

100.0

101.9

101.8

98.4

97.0

-5.4

-9.2

-10.9

-5.1

-8.5

-10.1

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

84

EU15: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5

378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5

390.652
10391.5
152.6
4.06
7788
1.97
8.00
300.6
53.9

397.458
12835.7
125.6
4.06
8625
1.87
7.60
235.3
61.5

398.737
14948.8
105.6
3.96
9185
1.88
7.46
199.0
62.5

0.000
0.0
-0.1
0.00
-103
-0.10
-0.43
-16.0
-2.7

0.000
0.0
-0.9
-0.03
-143
-0.16
-0.71
-21.9
-3.9

0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.07
-183
-0.17
-0.84
-22.4
-4.3

0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-1.3
-5.0
-5.1
-5.1
-4.8

0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.6
-7.8
-8.5
-8.5
-5.9

0.0
0.0
-1.8
-1.8
-2.0
-8.5
-10.1
-10.1
-6.5

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0

86.0
83.3
82.8
92.9

73.9
72.7
72.1
79.2

64.5
64.1
63.9
66.6

0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.0

0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.0

0.3
0.2
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.1
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.4
0.0

0.5
0.3
-0.4
0.0

0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91

0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92

0.22
1.90
1.48
1.57
1.39
2.76

0.17
1.81
1.41
1.50
1.29
2.66

0.17
1.72
1.32
1.44
1.18
2.60

-0.03
-0.04
-0.07
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.01
-0.02
-0.09

-0.05
-0.07
-0.07
-0.01
-0.08
-0.12

-11.0
-2.2
-4.3
-1.0
-0.5
-2.1

-19.9
-3.1
-5.4
-0.9
-1.9
-3.2

-21.3
-4.0
-4.9
-0.9
-6.3
-4.4

588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022

746156
127644
100717
104630
1645
411521
120148
113312
217027
57867
19991
0
3323

879789
102603
103906
183775
20846
468660
176102
87886
264676
37429
73975
0
4693

1000621
63901
105719
241875
44958
544168
198030
107457
304250
31199
95617
0
5644

21986
0
3603
28497
0
-10114
-4551
-3209
-10925
-1113
3166
0
1966

51698
-3596
2638
62443
16134
-25922
553
-29263
-24947
-4300
29412
0
3176

71067
-20767
1323
75066
35131
-19686
4016
-46728
-11129
1783
32388
0
4001

3.0
0.0
3.7
37.4
0.0
-2.4
-3.6
-2.8
-4.8
-1.9
18.8

6.2
-3.4
2.6
51.5
342.4
-5.2
0.3
-25.0
-8.6
-10.3
66.0

7.6
-24.5
1.3
45.0
357.5
-3.5
2.1
-30.3
-3.5
6.1
51.2

145.0

209.3

243.5

36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9

38.9
46.5
17.3
53.7
29.5
24.2

44.3
44.5
21.0
57.3
21.3
36.0

46.3
41.8
22.5
56.0
14.2
41.7

-1.6
-2.0
0.6
5.2
0.4
4.8

-2.0
-3.6
0.5
9.4
-1.8
11.2

-1.6
-4.1
0.8
8.3
-4.2
12.4

-4.0
-4.2
3.7
10.7
1.3
24.7

-4.3
-7.4
2.5
19.7
-7.6
45.1

-3.4
-8.9
3.8
17.3
-22.7
42.4

4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0

5831.6
422.5
4546.2
395.4
428.4
39.1

6645.0
414.1
5175.1
427.8
583.2
44.8

7227.8
404.5
5612.6
455.1
706.9
48.7

-0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.0

-0.9
0.1
0.7
-1.7
0.1
0.0

-1.0
0.1
0.9
-2.0
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14928

16719

18127

-1.1

-2.2

-2.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1

1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8

2142.9
1590.4
267.7
284.8

2491.0
1900.0
279.9
311.1

2775.8
2157.0
287.8
331.1

-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0.0

-0.4
0.3
-0.8
0.0

-0.4
0.5
-0.9
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

194

186

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383

310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314

349238
5957
155194
123197
7099
52040
5751

367858
5358
152189
140518
5513
58135
6145

360225
4554
140756
145747
5103
57775
6290

14
1
12
13
-15
4
0

26
1
20
28
-31
8
1

35
1
21
34
-30
8
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

41.2
58.0

40.7
58.5

37.7
60.5

33.3
58.9

28.8
54.8

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

Source: PRIMES

85

NMS: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0

136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8

138643
84249
2359
5757
17254
29024
1723
23949
1073
316
1963

139829
56232
2120
5302
17587
58588
1859
50346
2542
769
3072

152204
53423
1834
4789
22036
70122
1950
59073
4049
1690
3361

11864
-2020
-1
-2
0
13887
261
10860
668
151
1948

13807
-14855
-10
-12
-3890
32574
199
27377
1479
468
3051

18834
9.4
11.0
14.1
-8157
-2.3
-20.9
-13.2
-18
-0.1
-0.5
-1.0
0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-11185
0.0
-18.1
-33.7
38195
91.7
125.2
119.6
83
17.9
12.0
4.5
32600
83.0
119.2
123.1
1014
164.8
139.2
33.4
1162
91.3
155.0
220.1
3336 12579.4 14536.1 13491.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152

59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500

90241
-6770
54783
45601
9182
43891
-1663

121287
3082
63646
53179
10467
56223
-1663

132285
4016
69217
57979
11238
61813
-2760

-9610
-3977
-2156
-1924
-232
-3400
-77

-15503
-1835
-2656
-2364
-292
-11001
-11

-22439
-8950
-3815
-3371
-445
-9673
-1

-9.6
142.4
-3.8
-4.0
-2.5
-7.2
4.8

-11.3
-37.3
-4.0
-4.3
-2.7
-16.4
0.7

-14.5
-69.0
-5.2
-5.5
-3.8
-13.5
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841

196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008

227742
77478
56001
49648
17254
-1663
29024

259843
59313
64493
61525
17587
-1663
58588

283132
57438
69694
66602
22036
-2760
70122

2255
-5997
-2157
-3402
0
-77
13887

-1696
-16690
-2666
-11013
-3890
-11
32574

-3605
-17108
-3834
-9673
-11185
-1
38195

1.0
-7.2
-3.7
-6.4
0.0
4.8
91.7

-0.6
-22.0
-4.0
-15.2
-18.1
0.7
125.2

-1.3
-22.9
-5.2
-12.7
-33.7
0.0
119.6

54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6

46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6

34.0
24.6
21.8
7.6
12.7

22.8
24.8
23.7
6.8
22.5

20.3
24.6
23.5
7.8
24.8

-3.0
-1.2
-1.7
-0.1
6.0

-6.2
-0.9
-4.1
-1.4
12.6

-5.7
-1.0
-3.1
-3.8
13.6

-8.1
-4.7
-7.3
-1.0
89.8

-21.5
-3.3
-14.6
-17.6
126.7

-22.0
-4.0
-11.6
-32.8
122.4

316734
59996
12978
243760

324333
57434
15771
251128

393984
66876
32535
294573

507217
68167
51342
387708

617583
85417
70420
461746

-6452
0
10806
-17259

-13816
-15079
19515
-18252

-13571
-43356
12763
17021

-1.6
0.0
49.7
-5.5

-2.7
-18.1
61.3
-4.5

-2.2
-33.7
22.1
3.8

73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0

66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0

76779
52944
2999
9434
9464
1939
0

85253
40181
2330
9592
30111
3040
0

89642
40637
2313
8242
35125
3324
0

519
-5651
65
-2458
6623
1939
0

-293
-15516
-23
-9287
21493
3040
0

5166
-15488
-9
-7171
24509
3324
0

0.7
-9.6
2.2
-20.7
233.2

-0.3
-27.9
-1.0
-49.2
249.4

6.1
-27.6
-0.4
-46.5
230.9

93232
47239
0
17949
28043

70786
44972
33
8544
17236

72289
48890
2226
8859
12315

80299
56447
4341
8306
11205

85756
61089
5644
9228
9795

-659
-1946
959
345
-16

-944
-2390
1530
-50
-34

-1487
-3402
1789
141
-16

-0.9
-3.8
75.7
4.0
-0.1

-1.2
-4.1
54.4
-0.6
-0.3

-1.7
-5.3
46.4
1.6
-0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

12373

13324

13637

-280

-321

-289

-2.2

-2.4

-2.1

10089

10135

10734

13370

15333

-51

-33

-50

-0.5

-0.2

-0.3

155460

124696

151512

183154

206599

241

-246

72

0.2

-0.1

0.0

68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592

45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917

50002
29451
20551
43016
26581
31913

59658
33272
26386
51806
34010
37680

65799
34864
30936
58265
40429
42107

350
206
144
172
-284
3

313
170
143
63
-628
7

367
185
182
93
-399
10

0.7
0.7
0.7
0.4
-1.1
0.0

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
-1.8
0.0

0.6
0.5
0.6
0.2
-1.0
0.0

44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188

21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512

16715
43111
34391
25601
19935
11759

13922
50910
44152
35280
22219
16672

12197
55473
49724
43905
25652
19648

138
-1094
-118
-546
-351
2211

-184
-1730
-82
-1031
-716
3497

-215
-2509
-573
-1042
-682
5094

0.8
-2.5
-0.3
-2.1
-1.7
23.2

-1.3
-3.3
-0.2
-2.8
-3.1
26.5

-1.7
-4.3
-1.1
-2.3
-2.6
35.0

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2

547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1

552.9
265.0
9.3
101.2
54.9
35.7
86.7

527.8
204.9
9.4
112.9
60.0
41.6
99.0

542.7
201.8
8.1
115.7
61.2
46.9
108.9

-38.1
-33.2
-1.9
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
-2.1

-99.7
-91.7
-1.8
-1.6
-0.1
-0.9
-3.5

-101.3
-89.5
-2.1
-2.9
-0.3
-2.4
-4.2

-6.5
-11.1
-16.9
0.0
-0.8
-1.2
-2.4

-15.9
-30.9
-16.3
-1.4
-0.1
-2.2
-3.4

-15.7
-30.7
-20.2
-2.4
-0.5
-4.8
-3.7

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

78.1

74.6

76.7

-5.4

-14.1

-14.3

-6.5

-15.9

-15.7

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other

Source: PRIMES

86

NMS: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7

74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1

73.401
555.3
410.1
3.10
5368
2.43
7.53
995.6
39.4

71.813
820.6
316.7
3.62
7063
2.03
7.35
643.2
46.4

70.628
1102.7
256.8
4.01
8744
1.92
7.68
492.2
46.5

0.000
0.0
4.1
0.03
-88
-0.19
-0.52
-68.7
-4.6

0.000
0.0
-2.1
-0.02
-192
-0.37
-1.39
-121.5
-5.6

0.000
0.0
-3.3
-0.05
-192
-0.33
-1.43
-91.9
-7.2

0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
-1.6
-7.4
-6.5
-6.5
-10.5

0.0
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
-2.7
-15.3
-15.9
-15.9
-10.8

0.0
0.0
-1.3
-1.3
-2.2
-14.7
-15.7
-15.7
-13.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9

35.5
57.3
54.5
87.3

28.4
46.2
46.4
69.8

24.1
38.4
39.7
58.0

0.2
0.2
-0.6
0.0

0.1
0.1
-0.9
0.0

0.1
0.1
-0.4
0.0

0.7
0.4
-1.1
0.0

0.5
0.1
-1.8
0.0

0.6
0.2
-1.0
0.0

0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83

0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84

0.36
1.84
2.02
1.28
1.34
2.72

0.23
1.71
1.89
1.16
1.22
2.63

0.19
1.61
1.76
1.05
1.16
2.59

-0.05
-0.02
-0.01
-0.02
0.00
-0.07

-0.10
-0.03
-0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.09

-0.08
-0.05
-0.05
-0.01
-0.05
-0.10

-11.2
-1.2
-0.7
-1.2
-0.1
-2.4

-30.0
-1.8
-1.9
-0.2
-0.4
-3.4

-30.1
-2.9
-3.0
-0.6
-3.9
-3.7

73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0

86911
8786
7385
5983
13
64744
25486
39035
11451
7210
6619
0
429

118644
8786
7749
13486
138
88485
31879
27129
22837
5154
32692
0
672

169152
11024
8023
21988
537
127579
53427
41536
36940
4554
43813
0
735

573
0
565
3723
0
-3715
-686
-981
-6035
141
2730
0
429

4153
-1952
399
7194
0
-1488
-1534
-12528
-8749
-1047
20163
0
672

2413
-5524
218
5867
0
1852
-558
-15514
-7814
-996
25441
0
735

0.7
0.0
8.3
164.8
0.0
-5.4
-2.6
-2.5
-34.5
2.0
70.2

3.6
-18.2
5.4
114.3
0.0
-1.7
-4.6
-31.6
-27.7
-16.9
160.9

1.4
-33.4
2.8
36.4
0.0
1.5
-1.0
-27.2
-17.5
-17.9
138.5

32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6

33.0
51.7
29.0
35.1
17.0
18.1

39.1
48.8
30.2
56.7
13.4
43.3

44.3
41.7
40.5
57.2
13.8
43.3

-2.2
-1.2
2.3
10.3
0.3
10.1

-1.7
-3.1
-0.8
26.4
-2.5
28.9

-1.0
-1.5
0.6
19.3
-6.6
25.9

-6.2
-2.3
8.5
41.7
1.6
124.7

-4.2
-6.1
-2.7
87.0
-15.9
201.4

-2.2
-3.5
1.5
51.1
-32.2
148.6

468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6

617.3
72.6
470.8
50.1
23.2
0.7

756.0
66.6
606.5
48.7
33.6
0.7

901.3
62.3
747.0
48.3
42.9
0.8

-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0

-0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.0

-0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8410

10527

12761

-0.7

-2.0

-1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9

305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2

438.9
301.0
133.6
4.3

557.0
412.2
140.3
4.5

655.5
501.2
149.7
4.6

-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.0

-0.3
0.2
-0.5
0.0

-0.2
0.3
-0.5
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

-0.1
0.1
-0.4
0.1

0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.1

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

790

679

594

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

-0.1

0.0

20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331

22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54

31913
1064
14996
12467
1192
2138
57

37680
917
16734
16346
970
2651
61

42107
767
19120
18682
881
2593
63

3
0
1
4
-2
0
0

7
0
3
6
-3
1
0

10
0
4
10
-4
1
0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.1

23.9
25.0

31.4
26.7

30.3
30.1

27.3
30.6

25.3
29.5

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1

Source: PRIMES

87

EU27: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101

937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329

935300
157536
123026
183634
253537
217567
34190
142202
23134
2732
15309

826852
112895
58966
109165
212326
333500
36451
225410
41061
8247
22331

814403
117492
49483
89976
166512
390941
37554
255446
54080
16981
26880

57113
-8340
-399
-1270
0
67122
2473
45048
7299
1218
11083

75783
-30094
-205
-361
-23366
129809
2075
90588
14660
5374
17112

81758
-14032
-171
226
-54796
150531
1143
100080
15949
12360
20999

6.5
-5.0
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
44.6
7.8
46.4
46.1
80.4
262.3

10.1
-21.0
-0.3
-0.3
-9.9
63.7
6.0
67.2
55.5
187.1
327.9

11.2
-10.7
-0.3
0.3
-24.8
62.6
3.1
64.4
41.8
267.5
357.0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321

817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687

992917
117299
596188
561357
34831
277891
1539

1182401
111344
664628
637342
27287
404854
1574

1201120
121766
644839
625348
19491
432775
1740

-55627
-20678
-16041
-16067
26
-18831
-77

-89414
-26195
-21814
-20247
-1567
-41393
-12

-114209
-62907
-27538
-25823
-1715
-23763
-1

-5.3
-15.0
-2.6
-2.8
0.1
-6.3
-4.8

-7.0
-19.0
-3.2
-3.1
-5.4
-9.3
-0.7

-8.7
-34.1
-4.1
-4.0
-8.1
-5.2
-0.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623

1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405

1879937
274835
670933
461525
253537
1539
217567

1956215
224239
670556
514019
212326
1574
333500

1959892
239258
638692
522750
166512
1740
390941

1485
-29018
-16440
-20101
0
-77
67122

-13631
-56289
-22020
-41754
-23366
-12
129809

-32451
-76939
-27709
-23537
-54796
-1
150531

0.1
-9.5
-2.4
-4.2
0.0
-4.8
44.6

-0.7
-20.1
-3.2
-7.5
-9.9
-0.7
63.7

-1.6
-24.3
-4.2
-4.3
-24.8
-0.1
62.6

27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4

18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9

14.6
35.7
24.6
13.5
11.6

11.5
34.3
26.3
10.9
17.0

12.2
32.6
26.7
8.5
19.9

-1.6
-0.9
-1.1
0.0
3.6

-2.8
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
6.7

-3.7
-0.9
-0.7
-2.6
7.9

-9.6
-2.5
-4.2
-0.1
44.5

-19.5
-2.5
-6.9
-9.3
64.9

-23.1
-2.6
-2.7
-23.5
65.3

2561205
794718
291642
1474844

2993398
944823
376697
1671878

3553069
982718
668133
1902219

4089622
822979
930326
2336317

4473993
645398
1128025
2700570

-49097
0
113631
-162728

-74086
-90567
219323
-202842

-90424
-212390
252596
-130629

-1.4
0.0
20.5
-7.9

-1.8
-9.9
30.8
-8.0

-2.0
-24.8
28.9
-4.6

384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0

402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0

436397
201431
34466
141265
44508
14726
0

469820
161264
24526
157137
105255
21638
0

509102
184839
21189
148944
127947
26183
0

-16032
-26661
687
-16031
14932
11041
0

-18192
-54284
287
-32087
50860
17031
0

-6097
-74398
1054
-11359
57684
20922
0

-3.5
-11.7
2.0
-10.2
50.5
299.7

-3.7
-25.2
1.2
-17.0
93.5
369.6

-1.2
-28.7
5.2
-7.1
82.1
397.7

840016
673728
2
38458
127829

818581
727122
637
19291
71530

831990
733686
27027
17409
53868

850965
739456
47209
16031
48269

825854
711494
57697
15867
40796

-7000
-17549
10124
1974
-1549

-3994
-21696
15885
2115
-298

-6284
-27734
20326
1022
102

-0.8
-2.3
59.9
12.8
-2.8

-0.5
-2.9
50.7
15.2
-0.6

-0.8
-3.8
54.4
6.9
0.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

86749

87064

84231

-1837

-2290

-2835

-2.1

-2.6

-3.3

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

109883

113807

115137

-503

-357

-452

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1071205

1126314

1284408

1399634

1445418

3248

2446

2154

0.3

0.2

0.1

372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091

342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258

376776
235176
141600
324927
191377
391327

409198
246608
162590
354583
215345
420508

424069
246709
177360
368874
230459
422017

2705
1974
732
1047
-524
19

2678
1837
840
1133
-1401
35

2133
1377
756
1215
-1243
49

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
-0.6
0.0

0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.5
0.0

128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892

58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802

46737
519494
287305
263327
82108
85437

40908
530753
320480
308880
90733
107880

35390
509660
336602
342571
101482
119713

-583
-11974
-3417
-3259
-1815
24296

-703
-18529
-5920
-4602
-1796
33995

-1100
-25466
-6277
-5322
249
40070

-1.2
-2.3
-1.2
-1.2
-2.2
39.7

-1.7
-3.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.9
46.0

-3.0
-4.8
-1.8
-1.5
0.2
50.3

4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0

3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9

3833.6
1282.8
121.6
594.2
490.0
263.8
1081.1

3746.2
1119.6
109.8
613.5
506.7
274.8
1121.8

3740.1
1181.9
91.4
596.0
500.5
270.4
1100.0

-209.3
-151.3
-12.1
-17.5
-3.8
-1.8
-22.8

-385.4
-302.0
-11.9
-25.4
-3.0
-6.4
-36.7

-440.4
-332.6
-12.5
-25.5
-3.1
-18.4
-48.3

-5.2
-10.5
-9.1
-2.9
-0.8
-0.7
-2.1

-9.3
-21.2
-9.8
-4.0
-0.6
-2.3
-3.2

-10.5
-22.0
-12.0
-4.1
-0.6
-6.4
-4.2

100.0

94.8

95.6

93.4

93.3

-5.2

-9.6

-11.0

-5.2

-9.3

-10.5

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

88

EU27: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6

483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7

492.838
11044.1
170.2
3.81
7209
2.04
7.78
347.1
51.5

496.408
13825.4
141.5
3.94
8238
1.92
7.55
271.0
58.8

494.784
16315.6
120.1
3.96
9042
1.91
7.56
229.2
59.6

0.000
0.0
0.1
0.00
-100
-0.11
-0.42
-18.9
-2.9

0.000
0.0
-1.0
-0.03
-149
-0.18
-0.78
-27.9
-4.0

0.000
0.0
-2.0
-0.07
-183
-0.19
-0.89
-27.0
-4.6

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.4
-5.3
-5.2
-5.2
-5.4

0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.8
-8.7
-9.3
-9.3
-6.4

0.0
0.0
-1.6
-1.6
-2.0
-9.1
-10.5
-10.5
-7.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7

75.0
81.6
78.0
93.1

65.1
71.8
69.2
79.9

57.5
63.5
62.3
68.0

0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.2
-0.5
0.0

0.3
0.2
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.3
0.0

0.7
0.3
-0.6
0.0

0.5
0.3
-0.5
0.0

0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90

0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91

0.24
1.89
1.58
1.51
1.38
2.76

0.18
1.80
1.50
1.43
1.28
2.67

0.18
1.71
1.41
1.36
1.17
2.61

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.05
-0.05
-0.07
-0.01
-0.02
-0.09

-0.05
-0.07
-0.07
-0.01
-0.07
-0.11

-10.8
-2.1
-3.6
-1.1
-0.4
-2.1

-21.0
-2.9
-4.6
-0.9
-1.6
-3.2

-21.7
-3.9
-4.6
-0.9
-5.9
-4.2

697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022

872171
139130
117293
111790
1661
502296
157209
166008
236060
68914
27437
0
3878

1041208
114962
121543
200613
20999
583092
224393
131224
294437
43788
108081
0
5562

1231586
79812
124173
267749
45567
714286
277830
170637
357764
36101
143191
0
6594

22849
0
4917
32984
0
-15053
-6432
-4435
-18309
-972
6141
0
2522

57733
-5807
3661
71657
16134
-27912
-1323
-40811
-35260
-5363
49478
0
4045

75268
-26625
2003
83245
35131
-18487
3655
-60722
-21534
770
58049
0
4951

2.7
0.0
4.4
41.9
0.0
-2.9
-3.9
-2.6
-7.2
-1.4
28.8

5.9
-4.8
3.1
55.6
331.6
-4.6
-0.6
-23.7
-10.7
-10.9
84.4

6.5
-25.0
1.6
45.1
336.7
-2.5
1.3
-26.2
-5.7
2.2
68.2

185.9

266.6

301.3

35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9

37.5
46.5
19.2
51.2
27.7
23.6

42.8
44.8
23.0
56.5
20.1
36.4

45.6
41.5
26.5
55.5
14.4
41.0

-1.8
-1.9
0.6
5.8
0.4
5.4

-2.0
-3.5
0.3
11.3
-1.8
13.1

-1.6
-3.6
0.7
9.5
-4.4
13.9

-4.5
-3.9
3.3
12.8
1.4
29.9

-4.4
-7.2
1.1
25.0
-8.3
56.4

-3.5
-8.0
2.8
20.7
-23.2
51.1

5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6

6595.5
517.0
5126.8
456.8
455.1
39.8

7621.4
504.4
5954.7
491.7
625.1
45.5

8423.8
494.2
6588.8
523.5
767.7
49.6

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-1.0
0.0
0.0

-1.0
0.1
0.8
-2.0
0.1
0.0

-1.1
0.1
1.0
-2.3
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13383

15353

17025

-1.0

-2.1

-2.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8

2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0

2684.4
1959.3
425.4
299.6

3201.2
2425.9
445.0
330.2

3645.1
2825.1
464.8
355.2

-0.4
0.3
-0.8
0.0

-0.7
0.6
-1.3
0.0

-0.6
0.8
-1.5
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

232

223

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044

338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481

391327
7473
173948
140466
8595
54631
6215

420508
6706
174111
164497
6755
61701
6738

422017
5744
166328
174728
6268
61902
7046

19
1
13
18
-17
4
1

35
1
23
37
-35
9
1

49
1
25
48
-35
9
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.0
0.0

38.9
50.8

39.8
53.6

36.9
55.2

32.6
53.8

28.4
50.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

Source: PRIMES

89

EU28: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534

963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012

967269
166762
126270
184635
253537
236066
37756
149009
23566
3924
21811

874771
125984
62348
110520
212326
363593
40234
234556
42283
15058
31462

881860
132380
53222
91396
169981
434880
41703
266194
55761
33748
37474

62969
-9648
-399
-1345
0
74361
2891
45842
7576
1615
16437

89029
-30658
-205
-361
-23366
143619
2329
92296
15142
9009
24844

103139
-14032
-171
226
-54795
171911
1143
101983
16331
22508
29948

7.0
-5.5
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
46.0
8.3
44.4
47.4
70.0
305.8

11.3
-19.6
-0.3
-0.3
-9.9
65.3
6.1
64.9
55.8
148.9
375.4

13.2
-9.6
-0.3
0.2
-24.4
65.4
2.8
62.1
41.4
200.2
397.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259

868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975

1060727
129317
628807
591672
37136
301380
1223

1283941
127115
715742
684953
30789
439742
1342

1343318
140115
715681
691396
24284
486093
1429

-58407
-21342
-16407
-16409
2
-20581
-77

-95275
-26257
-22519
-20907
-1613
-46487
-12

-125483
-65677
-28619
-26834
-1785
-31186
-1

-5.2
-14.2
-2.5
-2.7
0.0
-6.4
-5.9

-6.9
-17.1
-3.1
-3.0
-5.0
-9.6
-0.9

-8.5
-31.9
-3.8
-3.7
-6.8
-6.0
-0.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487

1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549

1979216
296079
706297
486015
253537
1223
236066

2105034
253099
724412
550262
212326
1342
363593

2168768
272495
712493
577490
169981
1429
434880

4562
-30990
-16806
-21926
0
-77
74361

-6247
-56915
-22725
-46848
-23366
-12
143619

-22344
-79709
-28789
-30960
-54795
-1
171911

0.2
-9.5
-2.3
-4.3
0.0
-5.9
46.0

-0.3
-18.4
-3.0
-7.8
-9.9
-0.9
65.3

-1.0
-22.6
-3.9
-5.1
-24.4
-0.1
65.4

27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2

19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2

15.0
35.7
24.6
12.8
11.9

12.0
34.4
26.1
10.1
17.3

12.6
32.9
26.6
7.8
20.1

-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
0.0
3.7

-2.7
-1.0
-2.1
-1.1
6.9

-3.5
-1.0
-1.1
-2.4
8.1

-9.7
-2.5
-4.5
-0.2
45.6

-18.1
-2.8
-7.6
-9.6
65.8

-21.8
-2.9
-4.1
-23.6
67.1

2618738
794718
314786
1509233

3118298
944823
407604
1765871

3724799
982718
714611
2027470

4347247
822979
988556
2535711

4870289
658846
1214596
2996847

-50304
0
121709
-172013

-75276
-90567
227875
-212584

-93608
-212386
275614
-156835

-1.3
0.0
20.5
-7.8

-1.7
-9.9
30.0
-7.7

-1.9
-24.4
29.4
-5.0

393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0

424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0

466253
209663
36443
154570
45317
20261
0

515447
179995
25633
172980
107294
29544
0

567281
210372
22075
169308
130128
35399
0

-13905
-28560
720
-17692
15243
16383
0

-12085
-54630
298
-34219
51723
24743
0

-1619
-76634
1030
-14090
58223
29852
0

-2.9
-12.0
2.0
-10.3
50.7
422.5

-2.3
-23.3
1.2
-16.5
93.1
515.4

-0.3
-26.7
4.9
-7.7
81.0
538.2

867592
696742
2
38458
132391

846345
750941
637
19291
75474

868920
767244
27139
17447
57091

905392
790448
47634
16157
51153

899814
781281
59089
16080
43363

-7330
-17891
10146
1974
-1559

-4508
-22356
16035
2115
-302

-6827
-28745
20793
1018
108

-0.8
-2.3
59.7
12.8
-2.7

-0.5
-2.8
50.7
15.1
-0.6

-0.8
-3.5
54.3
6.8
0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

80396

88538

89655

91006

89180

-1911

-2308

-2910

-2.1

-2.5

-3.2

101612

112692

113260

117776

119658

-517

-374

-470

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1109885

1180941

1358674

1514358

1614268

3614

3076

5746

0.3

0.2

0.4

384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441

363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426

403978
243511
160466
344709
200079
409907

450023
257071
192952
383561
229150
451624

485949
260126
225823
409500
251287
467532

2731
1999
732
1392
-527
19

2711
1866
844
1752
-1423
36

2120
1397
723
1799
1776
52

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.7
0.4
0.5
-0.6
0.0

0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.0

136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483

68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041

58111
549347
299086
275565
82996
93569

49590
579619
341449
328350
92413
122937

41891
578347
371081
372714
105692
144543

-655
-12271
-3628
-3303
-1711
25181

-976
-19228
-8860
-4696
-1617
38453

-1592
-26506
-10939
-5526
444
49866

-1.1
-2.2
-1.2
-1.2
-2.0
36.8

-1.9
-3.2
-2.5
-1.4
-1.7
45.5

-3.7
-4.4
-2.9
-1.5
0.4
52.7

4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9

3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5

4069.2
1354.6
123.3
666.1
515.4
274.7
1135.0

4092.6
1237.3
110.4
708.8
545.2
280.1
1210.8

4204.0
1336.8
91.9
724.3
554.1
269.2
1227.8

-222.7
-162.8
-12.3
-18.1
-3.9
-2.8
-22.8

-402.1
-308.5
-11.9
-26.7
-2.9
-15.0
-37.0

-471.9
-348.0
-12.5
-27.7
-3.1
-31.2
-49.4

-5.2
-10.7
-9.0
-2.6
-0.8
-1.0
-2.0

-8.9
-20.0
-9.8
-3.6
-0.5
-5.1
-3.0

-10.1
-20.7
-12.0
-3.7
-0.6
-10.4
-3.9

100.0

96.7

98.4

98.9

101.6

-5.4

-9.7

-11.4

-5.2

-8.9

-10.1

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

90

EU28: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6

550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5

569.992
11370.5
174.1
3.47
6535
2.06
7.14
357.9
52.3

582.152
14408.7
146.1
3.62
7468
1.94
7.03
284.0
59.5

587.546
17374.7
124.8
3.69
8289
1.94
7.16
242.0
60.4

0.000
0.0
0.4
0.01
-88
-0.12
-0.39
-19.6
-3.0

0.000
0.0
-0.4
-0.01
-129
-0.18
-0.69
-27.9
-4.2

0.000
0.0
-1.3
-0.04
-159
-0.20
-0.80
-27.2
-5.0

0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
-1.3
-5.4
-5.2
-5.2
-5.4

0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-1.7
-8.7
-8.9
-8.9
-6.6

0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.9
-9.2
-10.1
-10.1
-7.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7

76.5
81.4
79.6
93.6

67.0
72.1
71.0
81.3

59.6
64.0
64.2
69.8

0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.3
-0.4
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.5
0.0

0.7
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.5
-0.6
0.0

0.4
0.4
0.7
0.0

0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91

0.24
1.91
1.65
1.50
1.37
2.77

0.19
1.81
1.58
1.42
1.22
2.68

0.19
1.72
1.49
1.35
1.07
2.63

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.06

-0.05
-0.06
-0.07
-0.01
-0.06
-0.08

-0.05
-0.08
-0.06
-0.01
-0.13
-0.11

-11.0
-2.1
-3.3
-1.2
-0.8
-2.0

-19.7
-3.1
-4.2
-1.0
-4.5
-3.0

-20.4
-4.2
-4.1
-1.0
-11.0
-3.9

725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040

914599
139130
129405
113485
1661
530918
162255
176099
249170
72439
28096
0
5114

1098215
114962
134163
207823
21030
620238
233719
141878
315070
45838
110130
0
7323

1332444
81526
137822
279662
57835
775599
295932
192582
388494
38023
147851
0
8649

25777
0
5472
34065
0
-13760
-6308
-4435
-18439
-1016
6439
0
3690

60130
-5807
3999
75542
16134
-29738
-2021
-42812
-37728
-5407
50472
0
5738

87318
-26624
2003
87408
47252
-22721
4071
-64921
-25923
726
60483
0
6913

2.9
0.0
4.4
42.9
0.0
-2.5
-3.7
-2.5
-6.9
-1.4
29.7

5.8
-4.8
3.1
57.1
329.5
-4.6
-0.9
-23.2
-10.7
-10.6
84.6

7.0
-24.6
1.5
45.5
446.5
-2.8
1.4
-25.2
-6.3
1.9
69.2

259.2

362.1

398.3

35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3

37.4
46.5
18.8
50.3
26.4
24.0

42.3
45.2
22.6
54.9
18.9
36.0

45.4
41.7
26.0
53.4
13.5
39.9

-2.0
-2.0
0.6
5.9
0.4
5.6

-2.5
-3.4
0.2
11.1
-1.7
12.8

-2.2
-3.8
0.7
9.5
-4.0
13.5

-5.1
-4.1
3.2
13.4
1.4
30.5

-5.6
-7.1
0.8
25.4
-8.4
55.5

-4.7
-8.3
2.8
21.5
-22.9
51.0

5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4

6896.7
618.6
5301.1
465.4
466.6
45.1

8263.8
625.6
6413.8
512.3
656.7
55.4

9493.3
606.4
7428.6
562.8
832.3
63.2

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-1.0
0.0
0.0

-1.0
0.1
0.8
-2.1
0.1
0.0

-1.2
0.1
1.1
-2.5
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229

10441

12100

14195

16157

-0.9

-1.8

-2.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3

2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8

2946.9
2204.6
437.3
305.0

3611.3
2809.8
463.5
338.0

4230.8
3374.4
491.1
365.3

-0.5
0.3
-0.8
0.0

-0.7
0.6
-1.4
0.0

-0.7
0.9
-1.6
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

261

255

259

251

244

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295

350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673

409907
8911
177497
151636
8864
56516
6483

451624
8329
182358
181042
7048
65665
7182

467532
7120
181003
196769
6704
68311
7624

19
1
13
18
-18
4
1

36
1
23
38
-36
9
1

52
1
26
50
-36
10
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

38.5
51.8

39.3
52.8

36.3
54.1

31.8
52.3

27.7
48.4

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

Source: PRIMES

91

EU30: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595

1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103

1210026
167296
255053
269995
260539
257144
53075
154186
24010
3973
21901

1150129
126262
186667
230516
219469
387214
56862
240852
42817
15126
31557

1106610
132681
135058
203512
175053
460306
58858
273389
56651
33844
37564

51697
-9648
-3153
-10979
0
75477
3132
46607
7664
1636
16437

90237
-30707
-205
-518
-23366
145033
2574
93486
15088
9039
24844

97192
-14034
-171
-5585
-56710
173691
1387
103479
16331
22546
29948

4.5
-5.5
-1.2
-3.9
0.0
41.5
6.3
43.3
46.9
70.0
300.8

8.5
-19.6
-0.1
-0.2
-9.6
59.9
4.7
63.4
54.4
148.5
370.1

9.6
-9.6
-0.1
-2.7
-24.5
60.6
2.4
60.9
40.5
199.5
393.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710

684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272

876169
129975
522659
483305
39354
223717
-182

1070063
127523
613604
580836
32768
328919
17

1178705
140440
655147
629421
25726
383071
47

-47564
-21498
-14004
-14077
73
-11985
-77

-96565
-26386
-23072
-21325
-1747
-47095
-12

-120694
-65775
-29110
-27240
-1870
-25807
-1

-5.1
-14.2
-2.6
-2.8
0.2
-5.1
73.8

-8.3
-17.1
-3.6
-3.5
-5.1
-12.5
-41.5

-9.3
-31.9
-4.3
-4.1
-6.8
-6.3
-3.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557

1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725

2036357
297270
727873
493712
260539
-182
257144

2165220
253785
745300
559435
219469
17
387214

2227392
273121
732283
586583
175053
47
460306

4132
-31146
-17157
-22964
0
-77
75477

-6328
-57093
-23277
-47613
-23366
-12
145033

-23502
-79809
-29281
-31392
-56710
-1
173691

0.2
-9.5
-2.3
-4.4
0.0
73.8
41.5

-0.3
-18.4
-3.0
-7.8
-9.6
-41.5
59.9

-1.0
-22.6
-3.8
-5.1
-24.5
-3.0
60.6

26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9

18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1

14.6
35.7
24.2
12.8
12.6

11.7
34.4
25.8
10.1
17.9

12.3
32.9
26.3
7.9
20.7

-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
0.0
3.7

-2.6
-1.0
-2.1
-1.0
6.7

-3.4
-1.0
-1.1
-2.4
7.9

-9.7
-2.5
-4.6
-0.2
41.3

-18.1
-2.7
-7.6
-9.4
60.4

-21.8
-2.8
-4.1
-23.7
62.3

2794856
818651
465941
1510263

3323905
971593
583374
1768938

3940581
1009830
897928
2032824

4585987
850636
1188183
2547169

5122411
678486
1424565
3019360

-51007
0
125534
-176541

-76353
-90567
230110
-215896

-95226
-219801
278460
-153885

-1.3
0.0
16.3
-8.0

-1.6
-9.6
24.0
-7.8

-1.8
-24.5
24.3
-4.8

394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0

425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0

468124
209792
36620
154628
46823
20261
0

518323
180017
25719
173542
109500
29544
0

571940
210372
22131
170468
133569
35399
0

-14462
-28626
739
-18503
15546
16383
0

-12556
-54630
316
-34591
51606
24743
0

-1296
-76634
1021
-13584
58049
29852
0

-3.0
-12.0
2.1
-10.7
49.7
422.5

-2.4
-23.3
1.2
-16.6
89.1
515.4

-0.2
-26.7
4.8
-7.4
76.9
538.2

884427
713481
2
38512
132432

866713
771184
637
19379
75512

889325
786886
27572
17750
57117

926715
810040
48965
16542
51168

921179
800619
60674
16516
43370

-7627
-18306
10243
1995
-1559

-4392
-22770
16565
2124
-310

-6651
-29149
21361
1037
100

-0.9
-2.3
59.1
12.7
-2.7

-0.5
-2.7
51.1
14.7
-0.6

-0.7
-3.5
54.3
6.7
0.2

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

83789

92950

94005

95487

92796

-2209

-2313

-3027

-2.3

-2.4

-3.2

103762

115166

115464

119912

121836

-523

-379

-476

-0.5

-0.3

-0.4

1145388

1220510

1402700

1561316

1661590

3679

3148

5817

0.3

0.2

0.4

394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860

375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964

416580
252471
164109
354996
208251
422873

463805
266705
197101
394429
238052
465030

500220
269874
230346
420381
260496
480492

2775
2035
740
1420
-535
20

2772
1911
861
1782
-1443
37

2191
1447
743
1824
1750
53

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.7
0.4
0.5
-0.6
0.0

0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.0

137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359

69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512

59077
568442
303021
291064
84026
97070

50212
598534
345957
345976
93954
126684

42472
596131
375647
391529
107876
147935

-732
-12487
-3673
-3362
-1657
25590

-1119
-19774
-9221
-4786
-1542
39589

-1668
-26998
-11610
-5653
471
51276

-1.2
-2.1
-1.2
-1.1
-1.9
35.8

-2.2
-3.2
-2.6
-1.4
-1.6
45.5

-3.8
-4.3
-3.0
-1.4
0.4
53.0

4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6

4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4

4149.8
1356.2
132.2
677.3
527.7
285.2
1171.2

4173.3
1239.4
119.4
720.7
556.8
290.6
1246.4

4280.6
1340.2
99.0
736.5
564.2
279.2
1261.6

-226.7
-165.0
-13.0
-18.8
-3.9
-2.9
-23.0

-406.2
-309.5
-12.0
-28.4
-2.9
-15.1
-38.2

-474.7
-347.3
-12.8
-29.6
-3.1
-31.3
-50.7

-5.2
-10.8
-9.0
-2.7
-0.7
-1.0
-1.9

-8.9
-20.0
-9.1
-3.8
-0.5
-4.9
-3.0

-10.0
-20.6
-11.4
-3.9
-0.5
-10.1
-3.9

100.0

96.9

98.6

99.2

101.7

-5.4

-9.7

-11.3

-5.2

-8.9

-10.0

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

92

EU30: 12% renewables share in 2010 case
Comparison to Baseline scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9

562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4

582.130
11898.8
171.1
3.50
6769
2.04
7.13
348.8
42.0

594.587
15057.8
143.8
3.64
7713
1.93
7.02
277.2
48.2

600.252
18137.4
122.8
3.71
8534
1.92
7.13
236.0
51.6

0.000
0.0
0.3
0.01
-88
-0.12
-0.39
-19.1
-2.4

0.000
0.0
-0.4
-0.01
-128
-0.18
-0.68
-27.0
-4.2

0.000
0.0
-1.3
-0.04
-159
-0.19
-0.79
-26.2
-4.7

0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
-1.3
-5.4
-5.2
-5.2
-5.3

0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-1.6
-8.6
-8.9
-8.9
-8.0

0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.8
-9.0
-10.0
-10.0
-8.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4

76.3
81.4
80.0
93.4

66.8
72.1
71.3
81.1

59.5
63.9
64.4
69.6

0.5
0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.4
0.3
-0.4
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0

0.7
0.4
-0.3
0.0

0.6
0.5
-0.6
0.0

0.4
0.4
0.7
0.0

0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90

0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91

0.23
1.90
1.63
1.49
1.37
2.77

0.18
1.80
1.55
1.41
1.22
2.68

0.18
1.71
1.47
1.34
1.07
2.63

-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.02
-0.01
-0.05

-0.05
-0.06
-0.07
-0.01
-0.06
-0.08

-0.05
-0.08
-0.07
-0.01
-0.13
-0.11

-11.1
-2.1
-3.4
-1.1
-0.8
-1.9

-19.8
-3.1
-4.4
-1.0
-4.4
-3.0

-20.3
-4.2
-4.3
-1.0
-10.7
-3.9

769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040

964303
142580
171007
115597
1705
533414
163600
176193
250693
72594
28821
0
5114

1151342
118412
177662
210714
21140
623415
235590
141894
316730
45914
111554
0
7323

1388905
84003
181743
283979
58067
781114
299467
192582
390798
38088
150998
0
8649

26494
0
5791
34636
0
-13933
-6190
-4435
-18745
-1004
6560
0
3690

60103
-5807
4348
75696
16134
-30267
-1950
-42812
-38176
-5398
50381
0
5738

87346
-27572
2404
87755
47252
-22493
4218
-64921
-25536
730
60320
0
6913

2.8
0.0
3.5
42.8
0.0
-2.5
-3.6
-2.5
-7.0
-1.4
29.5

5.5
-4.7
2.5
56.1
322.3
-4.6
-0.8
-23.2
-10.8
-10.5
82.4

6.7
-24.7
1.3
44.7
436.9
-2.8
1.4
-25.2
-6.1
2.0
66.5

259.2

362.1

398.3

35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6

37.3
46.6
17.9
53.0
25.6
27.4

42.3
45.5
21.6
57.2
18.5
38.6

45.4
42.1
25.0
55.5
13.2
42.3

-2.0
-1.9
0.5
5.8
0.3
5.5

-2.5
-3.3
0.2
10.6
-1.6
12.3

-2.2
-3.7
0.7
8.9
-4.0
12.9

-5.1
-4.0
3.1
12.3
1.3
24.9

-5.6
-6.8
0.9
22.8
-8.1
46.5

-4.6
-8.0
2.8
19.2
-23.1
44.0

5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4

7097.8
626.8
5454.5
488.2
482.0
46.2

8487.0
634.4
6583.5
536.8
675.6
56.7

9728.5
615.4
7607.3
588.1
853.1
64.6

-0.5
0.0
0.4
-1.0
0.0
0.0

-1.1
0.1
0.9
-2.1
0.1
0.0

-1.2
0.1
1.1
-2.5
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320

10531

12193

14274

16207

-0.9

-1.8

-2.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5

2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0

3059.5
2256.1
453.0
350.4

3742.9
2879.5
479.9
383.5

4376.3
3461.0
507.6
407.7

-0.5
0.3
-0.8
0.0

-0.7
0.6
-1.4
0.0

-0.7
0.9
-1.6
0.1

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0

257

253

257

249

241

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229

361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394

422873
9088
183293
155005
9262
59006
7218

465030
8500
187793
185361
7372
68095
7910

480492
7272
185937
201506
6993
70490
8295

20
1
14
18
-18
4
1

37
1
24
38
-36
9
1

53
1
27
51
-37
10
1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0

38.9
51.4

39.6
52.0

36.5
53.5

31.9
51.8

27.8
48.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

Source: PRIMES

93

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

94

APPENDIX 4: “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case
results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

95

EU25: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101

898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322

879970
138203
116324
167465
248776
209203
31557
139593
22131
2107
13815

713308
78636
50879
97347
161499
324948
33481
227292
38935
4516
20724

642448
55005
42409
77899
73480
393655
34004
275876
51081
8743
23951

43553
-16325
-855
-4714
0
65447
1679
47185
6345
617
9621

6787
-52446
-2080
-1002
-67140
129455
1278
98100
12694
1769
15614

-42655
-65193
-1040
-1907
-137328
162812
123
126996
13140
4349
18205

5.2
-10.6
-0.7
-2.7
0.0
45.5
5.6
51.1
40.2
41.4
229.4

1.0
-40.0
-3.9
-1.0
-29.4
66.2
4.0
75.9
48.4
64.4
305.5

-6.2
-54.2
-2.4
-2.4
-65.1
70.5
0.4
85.3
34.6
99.0
316.8

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181

801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144

929780
107779
569574
531812
37762
250328
2098

973000
78253
576908
549987
26921
316304
1536

930436
69528
542859
522789
20070
316400
1651

-94495
-24508
-30124
-29545
-579
-39725
-138

-258691
-50142
-92957
-86688
-6270
-115006
-586

-335131
-103392
-109591
-103462
-6129
-121597
-551

-9.2
-18.5
-5.0
-5.3
-1.5
-13.7
-6.2

-21.0
-39.1
-13.9
-13.6
-18.9
-26.7
-27.6

-26.5
-59.8
-16.8
-16.5
-23.4
-27.8
-25.0

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855

1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499

1761590
245982
637739
417793
248776
2098
209203

1633433
156888
574911
413651
161499
1536
324948

1517452
124532
529835
394299
73480
1651
393655

-50942
-40833
-30979
-44439
0
-138
65447

-251904
-102588
-95037
-116008
-67140
-586
129455

-377786
-168585
-110631
-123504
-137328
-551
162812

-2.8
-14.2
-4.6
-9.6
0.0
-6.2
45.5

-13.4
-39.5
-14.2
-21.9
-29.4
-27.6
66.2

-19.9
-57.5
-17.3
-23.9
-65.1
-25.0
70.5

27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4

18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8

14.0
36.2
23.7
14.1
11.9

9.6
35.2
25.3
9.9
19.9

8.2
34.9
26.0
4.8
25.9

-1.9
-0.7
-1.8
0.4
3.9

-4.2
-0.3
-2.8
-2.2
9.5

-7.3
1.1
-1.3
-6.3
13.8

-11.8
-1.9
-7.0
2.9
49.7

-30.2
-1.0
-9.9
-18.5
91.9

-46.9
3.3
-4.9
-56.5
113.0

2455674
780056
272788
1402830

2900835
921193
359249
1620392

3314419
964265
625846
1724307

3249644
625969
856745
1766930

3217896
284807
1041430
1891660

-168767
0
93302
-262069

-756131 -1148703
-260237 -532285
172894
197706
-668788 -814124

-4.8
0.0
17.5
-13.2

-18.9
-29.4
25.3
-27.5

-26.3
-65.1
23.4
-30.1

355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0

385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0

390037
177020
31833
121161
46713
13309
0

364572
99279
21444
122572
101025
20251
0

353885
77230
22507
96951
133663
23533
0

-42204
-37930
200
-31665
17566
9625
0

-98199
-99222
-1868
-60159
47406
15644
0

-136153
-163081
2713
-58297
64239
18273
0

-9.8
-17.6
0.6
-20.7
60.3
261.2

-21.2
-50.0
-8.0
-32.9
88.4
339.5

-27.8
-67.9
13.7
-37.6
92.5
347.4

797634
642275
2
31035
124322

796450
710448
637
17261
68104

790396
697116
26912
16729
49639

760421
641621
62557
12145
44098

728192
599501
80952
11268
36471

-22501
-31806
10120
1479
-2294

-63674
-92403
31553
-1673
-1151

-68873
-108602
44577
-3465
-1382

-2.8
-4.4
60.3
9.7
-4.4

-7.7
-12.6
101.8
-12.1
-2.5

-8.6
-15.3
122.5
-23.5
-3.7
-18.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

77699

69444

64054

-3799

-11722

-14080

-4.7

-14.4

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107527

110791

111717

-321

-408

-448

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1021913

1095359

1207861

1183545

1156056

-30145

-154960

-214397

-2.4

-11.6

-15.6

341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198

330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020

356650
221402
135248
303182
175016
373013

372952
223618
149335
278795
163976
367822

384703
220928
163775
260278
152603
358471

230
642
-412
-8784
-13471
-8120

-9450
-4775
-4676
-59946
-47880
-37684

-6862
-4004
-2859
-91007
-72713
-43815

0.1
0.3
-0.3
-2.8
-7.1
-2.1

-2.5
-2.1
-3.0
-17.7
-22.6
-9.3

-1.8
-1.8
-1.7
-25.9
-32.3
-10.9

123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053

56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465

44484
492866
268037
247069
75962
79444

37943
444915
265293
246531
80861
108002

31957
406910
267076
247377
81211
121524

-718
-24476
-11138
-12241
-4215
22642

-1477
-84981
-44433
-56387
-6831
39148

-2067
-104927
-54321
-86667
-14114
47698

-1.6
-4.7
-4.0
-4.7
-5.3
39.9

-3.7
-16.0
-14.3
-18.6
-7.8
56.9

-6.1
-20.5
-16.9
-25.9
-14.8
64.6

3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7

3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9

3524.1
1123.5
106.4
554.2
465.1
246.7
1028.3

2968.8
769.5
81.3
542.6
411.7
232.8
930.8

2669.5
617.4
69.8
534.4
370.0
221.0
856.8

-357.8
-238.4
-17.6
-22.7
-17.6
-15.2
-46.4

-959.8
-563.7
-32.6
-52.6
-83.2
-43.0
-184.7

-1285.5
-806.6
-29.8
-35.5
-116.7
-60.8
-236.1

-9.2
-17.5
-14.2
-3.9
-3.6
-5.8
-4.3

-24.4
-42.3
-28.6
-8.8
-16.8
-15.6
-16.6

-32.5
-56.6
-29.9
-6.2
-24.0
-21.6
-21.6

100.0

97.3

93.3

78.6

70.7

-9.5

-25.4

-34.0

-9.2

-24.4

-32.5

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

96

EU25: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7

452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2

464.054
10946.8
160.9
3.80
7142
2.00
7.59
321.9
51.4

469.270
13656.3
119.6
3.48
6925
1.82
6.33
217.4
57.7

469.365
16051.4
94.5
3.23
6856
1.76
5.69
166.3
59.2

0.000
0.0
-4.7
-0.11
-364
-0.14
-0.77
-32.7
-3.7

0.000
0.0
-18.4
-0.54
-1611
-0.27
-2.05
-70.3
-5.8

0.000
0.0
-23.5
-0.80
-2447
-0.33
-2.74
-80.1
-5.7

0.0
0.0
-2.8
-2.8
-4.8
-6.6
-9.2
-9.2
-6.7

0.0
0.0
-13.4
-13.4
-18.9
-12.8
-24.4
-24.4
-9.2

0.0
0.0
-19.9
-19.9
-26.3
-15.7
-32.5
-32.5
-8.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4

77.3
78.1
73.9
91.0

65.0
58.1
54.7
71.9

57.5
46.3
42.9
59.6

0.0
-2.3
-5.7
-2.0

-1.6
-12.5
-16.0
-7.4

-1.0
-16.2
-20.5
-7.3

0.1
-2.8
-7.1
-2.1

-2.5
-17.7
-22.6
-9.3

-1.8
-25.9
-32.3
-10.9

0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91

0.23
1.90
1.55
1.53
1.41
2.76

0.16
1.79
1.45
1.48
1.42
2.53

0.13
1.71
1.39
1.42
1.45
2.39

-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.06
-0.10
0.02
0.12
-0.22

-0.10
-0.06
-0.07
0.04
0.20
-0.33

-14.9
-1.9
-4.0
-0.9
1.5
-2.2

-32.4
-3.5
-6.5
1.1
9.1
-8.0

-45.3
-3.4
-4.5
2.6
15.8
-12.0

661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022

822508
136430
106892
106514
1658
471014
149309
152480
219102
61764
34104
0
3564

894558
105839
110492
190136
11656
476436
195270
91433
233462
48012
98274
0
5255

958984
40435
112592
252112
38734
515111
241058
90898
233582
39646
144977
0
6007

12001
0
2959
28123
0
-19080
-1562
-4057
-26337
-4285
13390
0
2207

-48023
-11097
1874
62512
6807
-108119
-13691
-65373
-87746
82
41180
0
3738

-137308
-60781
391
69181
28370
-174469
-6941
-120337
-126552
4680
63376
0
4364

1.5
0.0
2.8
35.9
0.0
-3.9
-1.0
-2.6
-10.7
-6.5
64.6

-5.1
-9.5
1.7
49.0
140.4
-18.5
-6.6
-41.7
-27.3
0.2
72.1

-12.5
-60.1
0.3
37.8
273.7
-25.3
-2.8
-57.0
-35.1
13.4
77.7

162.7

246.4

265.6

36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7

38.0
46.0
19.4
53.9
29.1
24.8

41.7
41.5
27.9
62.3
19.3
43.1

46.0
38.3
35.8
64.5
8.9
55.7

-1.5
-3.1
1.5
8.2
1.4
6.8

-3.6
-7.0
6.0
16.8
-2.9
19.6

-1.5
-7.2
11.5
18.2
-9.9
28.1

-3.8
-6.2
8.4
17.9
5.1
37.5

-7.9
-14.5
27.7
36.8
-12.9
83.7

-3.2
-15.8
47.3
39.4
-52.7
101.9

5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6

6447.9
496.0
5015.4
445.4
451.3
39.7

7389.4
483.8
5768.7
477.6
613.8
45.4

8099.8
472.0
6329.6
506.3
742.5
49.3

-1.5
1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-0.3
0.0

-12.7
3.2
-12.0
-0.9
-2.9
-0.1

-30.4
5.3
-29.0
0.6
-7.2
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.7
-0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2

-0.4
1.1
-0.5
0.1
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13895

15746

17257

-3.2

-27.0

-64.8

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1

2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0

2579.6
1889.5
400.9
289.2

3033.9
2296.4
420.6
316.8

3402.4
2625.3
438.7
338.3

-2.6
-1.7
-1.1
0.2

-14.9
-15.3
-0.8
1.2

-29.5
-32.0
-0.2
2.7

-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.1

-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
0.4

-0.9
-1.2
0.0
0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

222

212

-0.2

-1.1

-1.8

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714

333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368

373013
6984
169443
135131
8094
47565
5797

367822
5904
163770
142380
5963
43754
6050

358471
4924
152464
142989
5536
46454
6104

-8120
-37
-734
-517
-213
-6609
-11

-37684
-370
-5130
-14450
-555
-17023
-155

-43815
-396
-7387
-21396
-483
-13905
-248

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.6
-12.2
-0.2

-9.3
-5.9
-3.0
-9.2
-8.5
-28.0
-2.5

-10.9
-7.4
-4.6
-13.0
-8.0
-23.0
-3.9

39.3
51.7

39.9
53.9

35.8
55.1

29.6
49.1

25.8
43.9

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.6

-2.6
-6.0

-3.1
-0.3

-9.3
-8.6

-9.2
-12.0

Source: PRIMES

97

EU15: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101

761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315

742999
53698
113974
161730
231522
182076
29834
117365
21052
1863
11961

589682
34394
48798
92385
143980
270125
31622
180024
36614
4150
17716

520679
26747
40602
73363
60829
319138
32053
210961
47340
8191
20594

33362
-14561
-844
-4690
0
53457
1418
38047
5671
538
7783

9183
-25601
-2030
-650
-63182
100646
1079
73801
11435
1705
12626

-31055
-31870
-996
-1654
-116757
120223
39
88554
12432
4325
14872

4.7
-21.3
-0.7
-2.8
0.0
41.6
5.0
48.0
36.9
40.6
186.3

1.6
-42.7
-4.0
-0.7
-30.5
59.4
3.5
69.5
45.4
69.7
248.1

-5.6
-54.4
-2.4
-2.2
-65.7
60.4
0.1
72.3
35.6
111.9
259.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333

741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644

847057
115996
516503
487630
28873
210746
3812

872993
75351
520828
503016
17812
273185
3628

826474
66611
484340
473652
10688
270715
4808

-77368
-19085
-26256
-26201
-55
-32016
-12

-221907
-48126
-82735
-78115
-4620
-90900
-146

-284369
-93342
-95078
-91249
-3828
-95795
-153

-8.4
-14.1
-4.8
-5.1
-0.2
-13.2
-0.3

-20.3
-39.0
-13.7
-13.4
-20.6
-25.0
-3.9

-25.6
-58.4
-16.4
-16.2
-26.4
-26.1
-3.1

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014

1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491

1543038
169693
583460
372476
231522
3812
182076

1411073
109745
518024
365571
143980
3628
270125

1293077
93358
470866
344078
60829
4808
319138

-44006
-33646
-27100
-36706
0
-12
53457

-212724
-73728
-84766
-91550
-63182
-146
100646

-315423
-125213
-96073
-97449
-116757
-153
120223

-2.8
-16.5
-4.4
-9.0
0.0
-0.3
41.6

-13.1
-40.2
-14.1
-20.0
-30.5
-3.9
59.4

-19.6
-57.3
-16.9
-22.1
-65.7
-3.1
60.4

23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9

14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0

11.0
37.8
24.1
15.0
11.8

7.8
36.7
25.9
10.2
19.1

7.2
36.4
26.6
4.7
24.7

-1.8
-0.7
-1.6
0.4
3.7

-3.5
-0.4
-2.2
-2.6
8.7

-6.4
1.2
-0.8
-6.3
12.3

-14.2
-1.7
-6.4
2.9
45.6

-31.2
-1.1
-8.0
-20.0
83.4

-46.9
3.3
-3.1
-57.4
99.6

2138940
720059
259810
1159070

2576502
863760
343478
1369264

2937169
897389
593246
1446535

2840654
558068
807971
1474615

2779903
235771
974579
1569553

-145580
0
82430
-228011

-644088
-244893
155947
-555143

-955542
-452548
188512
-691506

-4.7
0.0
16.1
-13.6

-18.5
-30.5
23.9
-27.4

-25.6
-65.7
24.0
-30.6

282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0

319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0

318506
125071
29069
114196
38692
11479
0

297850
70651
19462
116912
73554
17272
0

289758
60564
20824
94068
94093
20209
0

-37474
-31284
370
-26739
12386
7794
0

-79374
-72154
-1497
-46941
28553
12664
0

-115804
-123622
3351
-45767
35285
14948
0

-10.5
-20.0
1.3
-19.0
47.1
211.5

-21.0
-50.5
-7.1
-28.6
63.5
274.9

-28.6
-67.1
19.2
-32.7
60.0
284.2

704402
595036
2
13085
96279

725664
665476
604
8717
50868

720382
649670
24682
8612
37418

687612
591506
56501
6509
33095

652450
547367
72402
5980
26701

-19566
-28417
9157
1877
-2183

-55240
-83681
28308
1048
-915

-57371
-96245
39882
333
-1341

-2.6
-4.2
59.0
27.9
-5.5

-7.4
-12.4
100.4
19.2
-2.7

-8.1
-15.0
122.6
5.9
-4.8
-18.6

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

65703

57740

52236

-3141

-9782

-11972

-4.6

-14.5

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96777

97428

96401

-286

-368

-381

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

866453

970663

1060987

1026417

990836

-25748

-128688

-173090

-2.4

-11.1

-14.9

272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606

284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102

306968
192133
114835
261672
150810
341536

315763
191585
124178
236553
140285
333815

320872
187190
133682
218271
129111
322581

200
619
-419
-7449
-10811
-7688

-7294
-3706
-3589
-50444
-36932
-34017

-5261
-3064
-2197
-74843
-55378
-37609

0.1
0.3
-0.4
-2.8
-6.7
-2.2

-2.3
-1.9
-2.8
-17.6
-20.8
-9.2

-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-25.5
-30.0
-10.4

79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865

35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953

27849
450638
234962
222672
56869
67997

24458
400684
228022
218857
62270
92126

20802
361433
226338
217729
62935
101598

-776
-22498
-9704
-10492
-3022
20744

-856
-76572
-37471
-47750
-2486
36447

-810
-92422
-44762
-71367
-6056
42327

-2.7
-4.8
-4.0
-4.5
-5.0
43.9

-3.4
-16.0
-14.1
-17.9
-3.8
65.5

-3.7
-20.4
-16.5
-24.7
-8.8
71.4

3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5

3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8

2990.7
870.6
98.4
453.8
411.7
213.4
942.8

2543.3
627.3
73.8
433.4
362.7
199.6
846.4

2300.1
535.0
60.8
421.1
324.5
185.8
772.8

-300.1
-193.0
-14.3
-22.0
-15.5
-12.3
-43.0

-757.8
-409.3
-28.9
-47.2
-72.1
-33.7
-166.6

-1010.9
-597.6
-28.6
-30.1
-100.7
-46.9
-207.0

-9.1
-18.1
-12.7
-4.6
-3.6
-5.4
-4.4

-23.0
-39.5
-28.1
-9.8
-16.6
-14.5
-16.4

-30.5
-52.8
-32.0
-6.7
-23.7
-20.1
-21.1

100.0

101.9

97.5

82.9

75.0

-9.8

-24.7

-32.9

-9.1

-23.0

-30.5

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

98

EU15: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5

378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5

390.652
10391.5
148.5
3.95
7519
1.94
7.66
287.8
53.3

397.458
12835.7
109.9
3.55
7147
1.80
6.40
198.1
59.7

398.737
14948.8
86.5
3.24
6972
1.78
5.77
153.9
61.3

0.000
0.0
-4.2
-0.11
-373
-0.14
-0.77
-28.9
-3.3

0.000
0.0
-16.6
-0.54
-1621
-0.23
-1.91
-59.0
-5.7

0.000
0.0
-21.1
-0.79
-2396
-0.28
-2.54
-67.6
-5.5

0.0
0.0
-2.8
-2.8
-4.7
-6.5
-9.1
-9.1
-5.8

0.0
0.0
-13.1
-13.1
-18.5
-11.3
-23.0
-23.0
-8.7

0.0
0.0
-19.6
-19.6
-25.6
-13.6
-30.5
-30.5
-8.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0

85.4
80.8
77.4
90.8

71.7
59.8
57.3
71.9

63.1
47.6
44.9
59.6

0.1
-2.3
-5.5
-2.0

-1.7
-12.7
-15.1
-7.3

-1.0
-16.3
-19.3
-7.0

0.1
-2.8
-6.7
-2.2

-2.3
-17.6
-20.8
-9.2

-1.6
-25.5
-30.0
-10.4

0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91

0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92

0.20
1.91
1.48
1.57
1.42
2.76

0.15
1.79
1.37
1.53
1.42
2.54

0.13
1.72
1.31
1.49
1.44
2.40

-0.04
-0.04
-0.07
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.06
-0.08
-0.12
0.02
0.11
-0.22

-0.09
-0.07
-0.07
0.04
0.18
-0.32

-15.7
-2.1
-4.7
-0.9
1.3
-2.2

-29.6
-4.1
-7.7
1.2
8.1
-7.9

-41.1
-4.2
-5.1
2.5
14.1
-11.9

588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022

735140
127644
99507
100507
1645
405837
122719
113445
208478
54728
26028
0
3159

795482
97053
102743
177922
11519
406246
165526
68191
221527
43367
68565
0
4596

833792
33913
104580
232658
38197
424445
196489
73006
215647
36156
94364
0
5272

10971
0
2394
24375
0
-15798
-1979
-3076
-19474
-4253
9202
0
1802

-32609
-9145
1475
56590
6807
-88335
-10023
-48958
-68095
1639
24002
0
3078

-95761
-50755
185
65848
28370
-139409
2476
-81179
-99733
6740
31135
0
3628

1.5
0.0
2.5
32.0
0.0
-3.7
-1.6
-2.6
-8.5
-7.2
54.7

-3.9
-8.6
1.5
46.6
144.4
-17.9
-5.7
-41.8
-23.5
3.9
53.9

-10.3
-59.9
0.2
39.5
288.7
-24.7
1.3
-52.7
-31.6
22.9
49.2

132.9

202.9

220.8

36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9

39.1
45.6
18.1
56.2
30.6
25.6

42.6
40.8
27.0
61.7
19.6
42.1

46.6
38.1
34.3
62.5
8.5
54.0

-1.4
-3.0
1.4
7.7
1.4
6.3

-3.7
-7.3
6.6
13.9
-3.4
17.3

-1.4
-7.8
12.6
14.8
-9.9
24.7

-3.5
-6.1
8.3
15.9
5.0
32.3

-8.0
-15.1
32.2
29.1
-14.7
69.7

-2.8
-17.0
58.3
31.0
-54.0
84.4

4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0

5830.9
423.3
4545.0
395.5
428.1
39.1

6635.5
416.6
5164.8
429.1
580.4
44.7

7205.0
408.7
5589.3
458.4
700.1
48.5

-1.1
0.8
-0.9
-0.7
-0.3
0.0

-10.3
2.6
-9.6
-0.5
-2.7
-0.1

-23.8
4.2
-22.4
1.3
-6.7
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2

-0.3
1.0
-0.4
0.3
-0.9
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14926

16695

18070

-2.8

-26.0

-59.6

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1

1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8

2141.5
1589.1
267.4
284.9

2480.6
1888.4
279.9
312.3

2755.1
2132.5
288.9
333.7

-1.6
-1.1
-0.7
0.2

-10.8
-11.3
-0.8
1.2

-21.1
-24.0
0.2
2.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.1

-0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.4

-0.8
-1.1
0.1
0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

193

184

-0.2

-0.8

-1.4

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383

310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314

341536
5925
154545
122725
6934
45667
5740

333815
5048
147758
127894
5109
42016
5991

322581
4259
135991
127009
4797
44482
6044

-7688
-32
-637
-460
-179
-6369
-11

-34017
-309
-4411
-12597
-436
-16111
-154

-37609
-295
-4744
-18704
-336
-13285
-246

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.2
-0.2

-9.2
-5.8
-2.9
-9.0
-7.9
-27.7
-2.5

-10.4
-6.5
-3.4
-12.8
-6.5
-23.0
-3.9

41.2
58.0

40.7
58.5

36.4
60.3

30.1
54.0

26.3
48.3

-1.2
-0.2

-3.1
-4.9

-2.5
-6.5

-3.3
-0.3

-9.4
-8.4

-8.6
-11.8

Source: PRIMES

99

NMS: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0

136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8

136970
84505
2350
5735
17254
27127
1723
22227
1079
244
1853

123625
44241
2081
4962
17519
54823
1859
47268
2321
366
3009

121769
28258
1807
4536
12651
74516
1950
64915
3742
552
3357

10191
-1764
-11
-24
0
11990
261
9138
674
79
1838

-2396
-26845
-49
-353
-3958
28809
199
24300
1258
64
2988

-11600
8.0
-1.9
-8.7
-33322
-2.0
-37.8
-54.1
-44
-0.5
-2.3
-2.4
-253
-0.4
-6.6
-5.3
-20570
0.0
-18.4
-61.9
42590
79.2
110.7
133.4
83
17.9
12.0
4.5
38442
69.8
105.8
145.2
707
166.2
118.4
23.3
24
47.8
21.3
4.6
3333 11870.6 14234.7 13478.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152

59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500

82723
-8217
53071
44182
8889
39582
-1714

100007
2902
56080
46971
9109
43118
-2093

103962
2917
58519
49137
9381
45684
-3158

-17127
-5423
-3868
-3344
-524
-7709
-127

-36783
-2015
-10222
-8572
-1650
-24106
-440

-50762
-10050
-14513
-12212
-2301
-25802
-398

-17.2
194.2
-6.8
-7.0
-5.6
-16.3
8.0

-26.9
-41.0
-15.4
-15.4
-15.3
-35.9
26.6

-32.8
-77.5
-19.9
-19.9
-19.7
-36.1
14.4

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841

196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008

218552
76288
54279
45317
17254
-1714
27127

222359
47143
56888
48080
17519
-2093
54823

224375
31174
58970
50221
12651
-3158
74516

-6936
-7187
-3879
-7733
0
-127
11990

-39180
-28860
-10271
-24458
-3958
-440
28809

-62363
-43372
-14558
-26054
-20570
-398
42590

-3.1
-8.6
-6.7
-14.6
0.0
8.0
79.2

-15.0
-38.0
-15.3
-33.7
-18.4
26.6
110.7

-21.7
-58.2
-19.8
-34.2
-61.9
14.4
133.4

54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6

46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6

34.9
24.8
20.7
7.9
12.4

21.2
25.6
21.6
7.9
24.7

13.9
26.3
22.4
5.6
33.2

-2.1
-1.0
-2.8
0.2
5.7

-7.9
-0.1
-6.1
-0.3
14.7

-12.1
0.6
-4.2
-5.9
22.1

-5.7
-3.7
-11.9
3.2
84.9

-27.0
-0.4
-22.0
-4.1
147.9

-46.6
2.5
-15.9
-51.3
198.3

316734
59996
12978
243760

324333
57434
15771
251128

377250
66876
32600
277773

408990
67901
48774
292315

437993
49036
66851
322106

-23186
0
10872
-34059

-112043
-15345
16947
-113645

-193161
-79737
9194
-122618

-5.8
0.0
50.0
-10.9

-21.5
-18.4
53.2
-28.0

-30.6
-61.9
15.9
-27.6

73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0

66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0

71530
51949
2764
6966
8021
1831
0

66722
28628
1982
5660
27472
2980
0

64127
16666
1683
2883
39570
3324
0

-4730
-6645
-170
-4926
5180
1831
0

-18825
-27068
-371
-13218
18853
2980
0

-20349
-39459
-638
-12530
28954
3324
0

-6.2
-11.3
-5.8
-41.4
182.4

-22.0
-48.6
-15.8
-70.0
218.7

-24.1
-70.3
-27.5
-81.3
272.7

93232
47239
0
17949
28043

70786
44972
33
8544
17236

70014
47446
2230
8117
12221

72809
50115
6056
5636
11002

75742
52134
8550
5288
9770

-2934
-3390
963
-397
-111

-8434
-8723
3245
-2721
-236

-11502
-12357
4695
-3799
-41

-4.0
-6.7
76.0
-4.7
-0.9

-10.4
-14.8
115.5
-32.6
-2.1

-13.2
-19.2
121.8
-41.8
-0.4
-15.1

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

11996

11705

11819

-657

-1940

-2108

-5.2

-14.2

10089

10135

10750

13363

15315

-35

-40

-67

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

155460

124696

146874

157128

165220

-4397

-26271

-41308

-2.9

-14.3

-20.0

68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592

45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917

49682
29269
20413
41510
24206
31477

57189
32033
25156
42242
23691
34006

63831
33739
30092
42007
23492
35890

30
23
6
-1335
-2660
-432

-2156
-1069
-1087
-9502
-10947
-3667

-1602
-940
-662
-16164
-17335
-6207

0.1
0.1
0.0
-3.1
-9.9
-1.4

-3.6
-3.2
-4.1
-18.4
-31.6
-9.7

-2.4
-2.7
-2.2
-27.8
-42.5
-14.7

44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188

21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512

16635
42228
33075
24397
19093
11446

13485
44231
37271
27674
18591
15876

11155
45477
40738
29647
18276
19926

58
-1977
-1434
-1750
-1193
1898

-620
-8409
-6962
-8637
-4344
2701

-1257
-12505
-9559
-15300
-8059
5372

0.4
-4.5
-4.2
-6.7
-5.9
19.9

-4.4
-16.0
-15.7
-23.8
-18.9
20.5

-10.1
-21.6
-19.0
-34.0
-30.6
36.9

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2

547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1

533.4
252.9
8.0
100.5
53.3
33.3
85.5

425.5
142.2
7.5
109.2
49.0
33.3
84.4

369.4
82.4
9.0
113.3
45.5
35.3
84.0

-57.6
-45.3
-3.3
-0.7
-2.1
-2.9
-3.4

-202.0
-154.5
-3.7
-5.4
-11.1
-9.3
-18.1

-274.6
-209.0
-1.2
-5.3
-16.0
-14.0
-29.1

-9.8
-15.2
-29.0
-0.7
-3.7
-8.0
-3.8

-32.2
-52.1
-33.3
-4.7
-18.4
-21.8
-17.7

-42.6
-71.7
-11.7
-4.5
-26.0
-28.4
-25.7

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

75.4

60.1

52.2

-8.1

-28.5

-38.8

-9.8

-32.2

-42.6

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other

Source: PRIMES

100

NMS: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7

74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1

73.401
555.3
393.6
2.98
5140
2.44
7.27
960.5
37.7

71.813
820.6
271.0
3.10
5695
1.91
5.93
518.5
44.7

70.628
1102.7
203.5
3.18
6201
1.65
5.23
335.0
46.1

0.000
0.0
-12.5
-0.09
-316
-0.18
-0.79
-103.8
-6.4

0.000
0.0
-47.7
-0.55
-1560
-0.49
-2.81
-246.2
-7.3

0.000
0.0
-56.6
-0.88
-2735
-0.60
-3.89
-249.0
-7.7

0.0
0.0
-3.1
-3.1
-5.8
-6.9
-9.8
-9.8
-14.5

0.0
0.0
-15.0
-15.0
-21.5
-20.2
-32.2
-32.2
-14.1

0.0
0.0
-21.7
-21.7
-30.6
-26.7
-42.6
-42.6
-14.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9

35.2
55.3
49.7
86.1

27.2
37.7
32.3
63.0

23.4
27.7
23.1
49.4

0.0
-1.8
-5.5
-1.2

-1.0
-8.5
-14.9
-6.8

-0.6
-10.7
-17.0
-8.6

0.1
-3.1
-9.9
-1.4

-3.6
-18.4
-31.6
-9.7

-2.4
-27.8
-42.5
-14.7

0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83

0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84

0.36
1.86
2.02
1.28
1.37
2.72

0.19
1.76
1.91
1.16
1.40
2.48

0.10
1.68
1.77
1.08
1.50
2.34

-0.05
-0.01
-0.02
-0.01
0.03
-0.07

-0.14
0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.18
-0.24

-0.17
0.02
-0.04
0.03
0.30
-0.35

-11.7
-0.3
-0.8
-0.7
2.1
-2.5

-41.6
0.7
-1.1
-0.1
14.3
-8.8

-62.0
1.5
-2.1
2.5
24.5
-12.9

73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0

87368
8786
7385
6007
13
65176
26589
39035
10623
7037
8076
0
405

99076
8786
7749
12214
138
70189
29744
23242
11935
4645
29708
0
659

125192
6522
8012
19454
537
90666
44569
17892
17935
3490
50613
0
735

1030
0
565
3748
0
-3283
417
-981
-6863
-32
4188
0
405

-15414
-1952
399
5922
0
-19783
-3668
-16414
-19650
-1556
17179
0
659

-41547
-10026
207
3333
0
-35060
-9416
-39158
-26819
-2060
32241
0
735

1.2
0.0
8.3
165.9
0.0
-4.8
1.6
-2.5
-39.2
-0.5
107.7

-13.5
-18.2
5.4
94.1
0.0
-22.0
-11.0
-41.4
-62.2
-25.1
137.1

-24.9
-60.6
2.6
20.7
0.0
-27.9
-17.4
-68.6
-59.9
-37.1
175.5

32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6

33.4
49.3
29.2
36.5
17.7
18.8

37.7
47.1
33.6
66.4
16.6
49.8

43.2
39.9
45.2
77.4
11.2
66.2

-1.8
-3.7
2.5
11.7
1.0
10.7

-3.1
-4.8
2.6
36.1
0.6
35.5

-2.1
-3.3
5.3
39.6
-9.2
48.8

-5.0
-6.9
9.4
47.3
6.1
132.4

-7.7
-9.3
8.4
119.0
3.9
247.1

-4.6
-7.6
13.2
104.7
-45.1
279.9

468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6

616.9
72.7
470.5
49.9
23.2
0.7

753.8
67.2
604.0
48.6
33.4
0.7

894.7
63.3
740.3
47.9
42.4
0.8

-0.4
0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0

-2.3
0.6
-2.4
-0.4
-0.2
0.0

-6.6
1.1
-6.6
-0.6
-0.5
0.0

-0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.0

-0.3
0.9
-0.4
-0.7
-0.5
-0.2

-0.7
1.7
-0.9
-1.3
-1.2
-0.5

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8405

10497

12668

-5.7

-32.3

-94.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9

305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2

438.1
300.4
133.5
4.3

553.3
408.0
140.7
4.6

647.3
492.8
149.8
4.6

-1.0
-0.6
-0.4
0.0

-4.1
-4.1
0.0
0.0

-8.4
-8.0
-0.4
0.1

-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.3

-0.7
-1.0
0.0
0.7

-1.3
-1.6
-0.3
1.2

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

789

674

587

-1.8

-4.9

-7.6

-0.2

-0.7

-1.3

20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331

22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54

31477
1059
14898
12406
1160
1898
57

34006
856
16012
14487
854
1738
60

35890
665
16473
15980
738
1972
61

-432
-5
-96
-57
-34
-240
0

-3667
-61
-720
-1853
-120
-912
-1

-6207
-102
-2644
-2692
-147
-620
-2

-1.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-2.8
-11.2
-0.1

-9.7
-6.6
-4.3
-11.3
-12.3
-34.4
-2.0

-14.7
-13.2
-13.8
-14.4
-16.6
-23.9
-3.9

23.9
25.0

31.4
26.7

29.7
30.0

25.1
27.3

21.6
25.5

-0.6
-0.1

-2.2
-3.3

-3.6
-4.0

-1.8
-0.3

-8.2
-10.7

-14.3
-13.4

Source: PRIMES

101

EU27: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101

937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329

922253
148949
122570
179441
253537
217756
33761
145155
22272
2139
14427

758172
89492
57092
108524
167704
335361
35898
233753
39305
4667
21738

688143
66156
48614
87843
79608
405922
36634
283696
51504
9011
25076

44065
-16926
-855
-5464
0
67310
2044
48002
6437
625
10201

7103
-53497
-2080
-1002
-67988
131670
1522
98931
12904
1794
16520

-44503
-65368
-1040
-1907
-141700
165512
223
128330
13373
4390
19195

5.0
-10.2
-0.7
-3.0
0.0
44.7
6.4
49.4
40.7
41.3
241.4

0.9
-37.4
-3.5
-0.9
-28.8
64.6
4.4
73.4
48.9
62.4
316.6

-6.1
-49.7
-2.1
-2.1
-64.0
68.8
0.6
82.6
35.1
95.0
326.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321

817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687

951997
113174
581042
546649
34393
256303
1477

1002269
83509
590689
567573
23115
327073
998

967259
76737
558292
542360
15932
331041
1189

-96548
-24803
-31186
-30775
-411
-40419
-139

-269545
-54030
-95754
-90015
-5738
-119174
-588

-348069
-107936
-114085
-108811
-5274
-125496
-553

-9.2
-18.0
-5.1
-5.3
-1.2
-13.6
-8.6

-21.2
-39.3
-13.9
-13.7
-19.9
-26.7
-37.1

-26.5
-58.4
-17.0
-16.7
-24.9
-27.5
-31.7

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623

1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405

1825969
262124
655332
435744
253537
1477
217756

1707403
173002
594742
435597
167704
998
335361

1599771
142893
551275
418885
79608
1189
405922

-52483
-41729
-32041
-45883
0
-139
67310

-262442
-107527
-97834
-120176
-67988
-588
131670

-392572
-173303
-115125
-127402
-141700
-553
165512

-2.8
-13.7
-4.7
-9.5
0.0
-8.6
44.7

-13.3
-38.3
-14.1
-21.6
-28.8
-37.1
64.6

-19.7
-54.8
-17.3
-23.3
-64.0
-31.7
68.8

27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4

18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9

14.4
35.9
23.9
13.9
11.9

10.1
34.8
25.5
9.8
19.6

8.9
34.5
26.2
5.0
25.4

-1.8
-0.7
-1.8
0.4
3.9

-4.1
-0.3
-2.7
-2.1
9.3

-6.9
1.0
-1.2
-6.1
13.3

-11.3
-1.9
-6.9
2.9
48.9

-28.9
-0.9
-9.6
-17.9
89.9

-43.7
3.0
-4.5
-55.2
110.3

2561205
794718
291642
1474844

2993398
944823
376697
1671878

3428825
982718
653122
1792985

3390746
650020
889177
1851549

3366943
308556
1077019
1981367

-173341
0
98621
-271962

-772963 -1197474
-263526 -549231
178174
201590
-687611 -849833

-4.8
0.0
17.8
-13.2

-18.6
-28.8
25.1
-27.1

-26.2
-64.0
23.0
-30.0

384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0

402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0

408959
189598
33483
124586
47413
13879
0

384934
112173
22644
127156
101821
21140
0

372115
90273
22830
100008
134502
24501
0

-43469
-38495
-297
-32710
17837
10195
0

-103079
-103375
-1595
-62069
47426
16533
0

-143083
-168964
2695
-60294
64239
19241
0

-9.6
-16.9
-0.9
-20.8
60.3
276.7

-21.1
-48.0
-6.6
-32.8
87.2
358.8

-27.8
-65.2
13.4
-37.6
91.4
365.8

840016
673728
2
38458
127829

818581
727122
637
19291
71530

814967
718199
27052
16878
52839

787868
665420
63231
12321
46895

760274
625277
83240
12403
39354

-24023
-33036
10149
1442
-2578

-67091
-95731
31907
-1595
-1672

-71864
-113951
45869
-2442
-1340

-2.9
-4.4
60.0
9.3
-4.7

-7.8
-12.6
101.9
-11.5
-3.4

-8.6
-15.4
122.7
-16.4
-3.3
-17.7

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

84482

76375

71639

-4104

-12980

-15427

-4.6

-14.5

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

110056

113744

115127

-330

-420

-461

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1071205

1126314

1249471

1235618

1218131

-31689

-161570

-225133

-2.5

-11.6

-15.6

372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091

342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258

374380
233917
140462
314056
177989
383046

396581
239541
157039
291035
166961
381042

413429
239992
173436
273329
155671
375702

309
715
-406
-9825
-13911
-8262

-9940
-5230
-4710
-62415
-49784
-39431

-8507
-5339
-3168
-94330
-76031
-46265

0.1
0.3
-0.3
-3.0
-7.2
-2.1

-2.4
-2.1
-2.9
-17.7
-23.0
-9.4

-2.0
-2.2
-1.8
-25.7
-32.8
-11.0

128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892

58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802

46406
506688
279428
254051
78587
84312

39620
461467
280702
256056
83998
113776

35350
425869
285706
257706
85233
128267

-914
-24781
-11294
-12535
-5336
23171

-1991
-87816
-45698
-57426
-8531
39891

-1140
-109257
-57173
-90187
-15999
48624

-1.9
-4.7
-3.9
-4.7
-6.4
37.9

-4.8
-16.0
-14.0
-18.3
-9.2
54.0

-3.1
-20.4
-16.7
-25.9
-15.8
61.1

4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0

3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9

3674.9
1189.1
114.9
587.6
476.0
250.3
1057.0

3134.5
837.7
85.8
581.6
424.8
236.8
967.8

2854.0
682.1
74.8
587.5
382.6
225.1
901.9

-367.9
-245.0
-18.9
-24.0
-17.8
-15.3
-46.9

-997.1
-583.9
-36.0
-57.3
-84.9
-44.3
-190.7

-1326.4
-832.4
-29.1
-34.0
-120.9
-63.7
-246.3

-9.1
-17.1
-14.1
-3.9
-3.6
-5.8
-4.2

-24.1
-41.1
-29.6
-9.0
-16.7
-15.8
-16.5

-31.7
-55.0
-28.0
-5.5
-24.0
-22.0
-21.5

100.0

94.8

91.6

78.2

71.2

-9.2

-24.9

-33.1

-9.1

-24.1

-31.7

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

102

EU27: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6

483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7

492.838
11044.1
165.3
3.71
6957
2.01
7.46
332.7
50.8

496.408
13825.4
123.5
3.44
6831
1.84
6.31
226.7
56.9

494.784
16315.6
98.1
3.23
6805
1.78
5.77
174.9
58.4

0.000
0.0
-4.8
-0.11
-352
-0.14
-0.75
-33.3
-3.6

0.000
0.0
-19.0
-0.53
-1557
-0.26
-2.01
-72.1
-5.9

0.000
0.0
-24.1
-0.79
-2420
-0.31
-2.68
-81.3
-5.8

0.0
0.0
-2.8
-2.8
-4.8
-6.5
-9.1
-9.1
-6.7

0.0
0.0
-13.3
-13.3
-18.6
-12.5
-24.1
-24.1
-9.4

0.0
0.0
-19.7
-19.7
-26.2
-15.0
-31.7
-31.7
-9.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7

74.5
78.9
72.6
91.1

63.1
58.9
53.7
72.4

56.1
47.1
42.1
60.5

0.1
-2.5
-5.7
-2.0

-1.6
-12.6
-16.0
-7.5

-1.2
-16.3
-20.6
-7.5

0.1
-3.0
-7.2
-2.1

-2.4
-17.7
-23.0
-9.4

-2.0
-25.7
-32.8
-11.0

0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90

0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91

0.23
1.90
1.57
1.52
1.41
2.76

0.16
1.79
1.47
1.46
1.42
2.54

0.13
1.72
1.42
1.40
1.45
2.40

-0.04
-0.03
-0.07
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.06
-0.11
0.02
0.12
-0.22

-0.10
-0.05
-0.05
0.03
0.20
-0.32

-14.4
-1.8
-4.0
-0.6
1.6
-2.2

-31.2
-3.4
-6.7
1.2
9.4
-7.8

-43.2
-3.0
-3.5
2.2
16.0
-11.8

697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022

861116
139130
116083
107693
1661
496549
160123
165823
226506
65601
34929
0
3690

935645
109239
120378
193855
11672
500501
209918
106367
240045
49473
99165
0
5451

1005065
43440
123023
256359
38805
543438
259243
105109
242402
39982
149723
0
6221

11793
0
3707
28887
0
-20801
-3518
-4619
-27864
-4285
13633
0
2334

-47829
-11530
2497
64899
6807
-110502
-15798
-65668
-89652
321
40563
0
3934

-151253
-62997
854
71855
28370
-189335
-14932
-126251
-136896
4652
64582
0
4578

1.4
0.0
3.3
36.7
0.0
-4.0
-2.2
-2.7
-11.0
-6.1
64.0

-4.9
-9.5
2.1
50.3
139.9
-18.1
-7.0
-38.2
-27.2
0.7
69.2

-13.1
-59.2
0.7
38.9
271.9
-25.8
-5.4
-54.6
-36.1
13.2
75.9

172.0

259.3

278.6

35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9

37.7
45.5
19.8
53.6
28.7
24.9

41.4
41.4
28.8
61.5
19.2
42.3

45.8
38.2
36.7
63.6
9.2
54.4

-1.5
-3.0
1.2
8.2
1.4
6.8

-3.4
-7.0
6.0
16.3
-2.8
19.1

-1.5
-6.8
10.9
17.6
-9.6
27.3

-3.9
-6.1
6.6
18.0
5.1
37.4

-7.6
-14.4
26.4
36.1
-12.6
82.0

-3.1
-15.1
42.2
38.4
-51.2
100.4

5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6

6594.8
518.0
5124.8
457.6
454.7
39.8

7609.5
508.1
5940.2
493.8
622.0
45.4

8392.0
500.8
6556.1
525.9
759.8
49.4

-1.2
1.0
-1.6
-0.2
-0.3
0.0

-12.9
3.7
-13.6
0.1
-3.0
-0.1

-32.9
6.7
-31.7
0.0
-7.7
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.7
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
-0.2

-0.4
1.4
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13381

15329

16961

-2.4

-25.9

-66.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8

2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0

2683.0
1956.5
426.8
299.7

3185.6
2407.1
447.1
331.4

3610.5
2786.6
465.7
358.3

-1.8
-2.5
0.6
0.1

-16.3
-18.2
0.7
1.3

-35.2
-37.7
-0.6
3.1

-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0

-0.5
-0.8
0.2
0.4

-1.0
-1.3
-0.1
0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

230

221

-0.2

-1.2

-2.2

-0.1

-0.5

-1.0

280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044

338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481

383046
7434
173172
139873
8411
47959
6197

381042
6318
168759
148870
6222
44314
6560

375702
5289
158503
151790
5784
47609
6728

-8262
-38
-762
-575
-202
-6668
-17

-39431
-387
-5329
-15591
-569
-17379
-177

-46265
-455
-7800
-22891
-519
-14284
-316

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.3
-12.2
-0.3

-9.4
-5.8
-3.1
-9.5
-8.4
-28.2
-2.6

-11.0
-7.9
-4.7
-13.1
-8.2
-23.1
-4.5

38.9
50.8

39.8
53.6

35.7
55.0

29.6
49.0

25.8
44.0

-1.1
-0.2

-3.0
-4.7

-2.6
-6.0

-3.1
-0.4

-9.3
-8.8

-9.2
-12.0

Source: PRIMES

103

EU28: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534

963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012

953703
158175
125814
180389
253537
235789
37327
151897
22750
2900
20914

799371
100984
60474
109879
167704
360331
39681
242331
40452
7158
30709

738784
78687
52353
89264
81711
436770
40784
293795
53212
13623
35356

49403
-18235
-855
-5591
0
74084
2462
48730
6760
592
15539

13628
-55658
-2080
-1002
-67988
140357
1776
100071
13311
1109
24091

-39936
-67725
-1040
-1907
-143065
173801
223
129584
13782
2383
27830

5.5
-10.3
-0.7
-3.0
0.0
45.8
7.1
47.2
42.3
25.7
289.1

1.7
-35.5
-3.3
-0.9
-28.8
63.8
4.7
70.3
49.0
18.3
364.0

-5.1
-46.3
-1.9
-2.1
-63.6
66.1
0.6
78.9
35.0
21.2
369.8

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259

868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975

1018082
125149
613221
576551
36670
278551
1161

1091992
93663
636926
610622
26305
360637
765

1087886
89043
618553
598508
20045
379414
877

-101052
-25510
-31993
-31530
-463
-43410
-139

-287224
-59709
-101335
-95238
-6097
-125592
-588

-380915
-116749
-125746
-119723
-6024
-137865
-554

-9.0
-16.9
-5.0
-5.2
-1.2
-13.5
-10.7

-20.8
-38.9
-13.7
-13.5
-18.8
-25.8
-43.5

-25.9
-56.7
-16.9
-16.7
-23.1
-26.7
-38.7

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487

1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549

1923004
283324
690254
458940
253537
1161
235789

1837684
194647
643722
470516
167704
765
360331

1770261
167730
614496
468678
81711
877
436770

-51650
-43745
-32848
-49001
0
-139
74084

-273596
-115367
-103415
-126594
-67988
-588
140357

-420851
-184474
-126786
-139772
-143065
-554
173801

-2.6
-13.4
-4.5
-9.6
0.0
-10.7
45.8

-13.0
-37.2
-13.8
-21.2
-28.8
-43.5
63.8

-19.2
-52.4
-17.1
-23.0
-63.6
-38.7
66.1

27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2

19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2

14.7
35.9
23.9
13.2
12.3

10.6
35.0
25.6
9.1
19.6

9.5
34.7
26.5
4.6
24.7

-1.8
-0.7
-1.9
0.3
4.1

-4.1
-0.4
-2.7
-2.0
9.2

-6.6
0.9
-1.3
-5.6
12.7

-11.0
-2.0
-7.2
2.7
49.7

-27.9
-1.0
-9.5
-18.3
88.2

-41.1
2.6
-4.7
-55.0
105.6

2618738
794718
314786
1509233

3118298
944823
407604
1765871

3593155
982718
700141
1910297

3608914
650020
946545
2012349

3681182
316709
1145322
2219151

-181947
0
107239
-289186

-813609 -1282716
-263526 -554524
185864
206340
-735946 -934531

-4.8
0.0
18.1
-13.1

-18.4
-28.8
24.4
-26.8

-25.8
-63.6
22.0
-29.6

393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0

424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0

437409
197829
35539
136399
48227
19414
0

422125
123865
23711
141655
103848
29046
0

418792
107743
23676
116743
136912
33718
0

-42750
-40393
-183
-35863
18153
15536
0

-105406
-110760
-1625
-65544
48277
24245
0

-150109
-179263
2632
-66654
65007
28170
0

-8.9
-17.0
-0.5
-20.8
60.4
400.6

-20.0
-47.2
-6.4
-31.6
86.9
505.0

-26.4
-62.5
12.5
-36.3
90.4
507.8

867592
696742
2
38458
132391

846345
750941
637
19291
75474

851476
751345
27164
16913
56054

837985
711851
63856
12422
49856

824940
685164
85321
12574
41882

-24775
-33791
10172
1440
-2596

-71915
-100954
32258
-1620
-1599

-81701
-124863
47025
-2489
-1374

-2.8
-4.3
59.9
9.3
-4.4

-7.9
-12.4
102.1
-11.5
-3.1

-9.0
-15.4
122.8
-16.5
-3.2
-17.7

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

80396

88538

87354

79861

75798

-4211

-13452

-16293

-4.6

-14.4

101612

112692

113441

117704

119641

-335

-446

-487

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1109885

1180941

1321824

1337957

1357192

-33236

-173325

-251329

-2.5

-11.5

-15.6

384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441

363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426

401469
242215
159254
333416
185878
401061

436047
249763
186284
316209
177245
408455

473487
253205
220281
304115
167530
412060

222
703
-481
-9902
-14729
-8827

-11265
-5442
-5823
-65600
-53327
-43133

-10343
-5524
-4818
-103586
-81981
-55420

0.1
0.3
-0.3
-2.9
-7.3
-2.2

-2.5
-2.1
-3.0
-17.2
-23.1
-9.6

-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-25.4
-32.9
-11.9

136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483

68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041

57744
536048
291186
265740
79178
91928

48102
505543
301678
272524
86324
123786

41527
484046
318868
281494
89997
141260

-1022
-25569
-11528
-13128
-5529
23540

-2464
-93304
-48630
-60523
-7706
39302

-1957
-120807
-63152
-96745
-15252
46583

-1.7
-4.6
-3.8
-4.7
-6.5
34.4

-4.9
-15.6
-13.9
-18.2
-8.2
46.5

-4.5
-20.0
-16.5
-25.6
-14.5
49.2

4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9

3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5

3906.1
1257.7
117.0
660.0
500.9
261.3
1109.3

3434.8
924.0
86.4
672.0
458.5
248.4
1045.5

3242.1
796.1
75.3
710.3
424.8
234.2
1001.4

-385.8
-259.7
-18.6
-24.2
-18.4
-16.3
-48.6

-1059.9
-621.7
-35.9
-63.5
-89.6
-46.8
-202.4

-1433.8
-888.7
-29.1
-41.7
-132.3
-66.2
-275.8

-9.0
-17.1
-13.7
-3.5
-3.5
-5.9
-4.2

-23.6
-40.2
-29.4
-8.6
-16.3
-15.8
-16.2

-30.7
-52.8
-27.9
-5.5
-23.8
-22.0
-21.6

100.0

96.7

94.4

83.0

78.4

-9.3

-25.6

-34.7

-9.0

-23.6

-30.7

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

104

EU28: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6

550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5

569.992
11370.5
169.1
3.37
6304
2.03
6.85
343.5
51.6

582.152
14408.7
127.5
3.16
6199
1.87
5.90
238.4
57.7

587.546
17374.7
101.9
3.01
6265
1.83
5.52
186.6
59.6

0.000
0.0
-4.5
-0.09
-319
-0.14
-0.68
-33.9
-3.7

0.000
0.0
-19.0
-0.47
-1398
-0.26
-1.82
-73.6
-6.0

0.000
0.0
-24.2
-0.72
-2183
-0.30
-2.44
-82.5
-5.8

0.0
0.0
-2.6
-2.6
-4.8
-6.5
-9.0
-9.0
-6.6

0.0
0.0
-13.0
-13.0
-18.4
-12.2
-23.6
-23.6
-9.4

0.0
0.0
-19.2
-19.2
-25.8
-14.2
-30.7
-30.7
-8.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7

76.0
78.8
73.9
91.5

64.9
59.5
54.9
73.6

58.1
47.5
42.8
61.5

0.0
-2.3
-5.9
-2.0

-1.7
-12.3
-16.5
-7.8

-1.3
-16.2
-21.0
-8.3

0.1
-2.9
-7.3
-2.2

-2.5
-17.2
-23.1
-9.6

-2.1
-25.4
-32.9
-11.9

0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91

0.23
1.92
1.64
1.50
1.41
2.77

0.17
1.81
1.54
1.45
1.40
2.56

0.14
1.75
1.50
1.40
1.40
2.43

-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.06
-0.10
0.01
0.12
-0.20

-0.10
-0.05
-0.05
0.03
0.19
-0.30

-14.5
-1.7
-3.6
-0.7
1.6
-2.1

-30.3
-3.1
-6.3
1.0
9.5
-7.4

-40.6
-2.7
-3.5
2.2
16.1
-11.1

725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040

903296
139130
128195
109569
1661
524741
164400
175915
239643
68886
35371
0
4926

988811
109239
132999
200450
11703
534421
222571
115408
259383
51422
100995
0
7212

1085954
44476
136672
268428
38953
597425
282036
121647
270265
41807
155430
0
8276

14473
0
4262
30149
0
-19938
-4163
-4619
-27965
-4569
13714
0
3502

-49274
-11530
2834
68169
6807
-115555
-13169
-69282
-93415
177
41337
0
5628

-159172
-63674
854
76173
28370
-200894
-9826
-135856
-144152
4510
68063
0
6541

1.6
0.0
3.4
38.0
0.0
-3.7
-2.5
-2.6
-10.5
-6.2
63.3

-4.7
-9.5
2.2
51.5
139.0
-17.8
-5.6
-37.5
-26.5
0.3
69.3

-12.8
-58.9
0.6
39.6
268.1
-25.2
-3.4
-52.8
-34.8
12.1
77.9

246.0

355.1

376.8

35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3

37.6
45.4
19.4
52.7
27.3
25.4

41.0
41.7
28.9
59.9
18.0
41.9

45.6
38.7
36.9
60.8
8.6
52.2

-1.8
-3.1
1.1
8.3
1.3
7.0

-3.8
-7.0
6.5
16.1
-2.6
18.8

-2.1
-6.8
11.6
16.9
-8.9
25.8

-4.7
-6.3
6.2
18.7
5.1
38.0

-8.5
-14.3
28.8
36.8
-12.8
81.1

-4.4
-15.0
46.0
38.4
-51.0
97.8

5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4

6896.0
619.8
5298.7
466.2
466.2
45.0

8248.3
631.2
6392.7
516.0
653.1
55.2

9444.1
615.7
7372.3
571.0
822.4
62.7

-1.2
1.2
-2.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.0

-16.6
5.6
-20.2
1.7
-3.5
-0.2

-50.3
9.4
-55.3
5.7
-9.8
-0.4

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.9
-0.3
0.3
-0.5
-0.3

-0.5
1.5
-0.7
1.0
-1.2
-0.6

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229

10441

12098

14169

16074

-2.1

-28.5

-85.7

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3

2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8

2945.1
2201.3
438.6
305.1

3590.4
2785.1
466.0
339.3

4182.6
3320.1
493.9
368.6

-2.3
-3.0
0.6
0.2

-21.6
-24.0
1.1
1.3

-48.9
-53.5
1.3
3.3

-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1

-0.6
-0.9
0.2
0.4

-1.2
-1.6
0.3
0.9

261

255

259

249

241

-0.2

-1.5

-2.8

-0.1

-0.6

-1.2

289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295

350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673

401061
8867
176698
150966
8663
49402
6465

408455
7856
176693
163459
6480
46984
6983

412060
6466
170643
169033
6242
52419
7258

-8827
-43
-786
-652
-219
-7110
-18

-43133
-472
-5642
-17545
-604
-18672
-198

-55420
-653
-10335
-27687
-499
-15882
-365

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.6
-0.3

-9.6
-5.7
-3.1
-9.7
-8.5
-28.4
-2.8

-11.9
-9.2
-5.7
-14.1
-7.4
-23.3
-4.8

38.5
51.8

39.3
52.8

35.1
53.9

28.8
47.6

24.9
42.2

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.7

-2.7
-6.2

-3.2
-0.4

-9.4
-9.0

-9.9
-12.8

Source: PRIMES

105

Europe-30: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595

1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103

1185693
158709
257162
252915
260480
256428
52614
157045
22832
2935
21002

1041368
101248
183366
199649
173542
383563
56012
248935
40608
7214
30792

947313
78829
134189
188803
83986
461506
57480
301506
53380
13705
35433

27363
-18235
-1044
-28059
-59
74760
2671
49466
6486
599
15538

-18524
-55721
-3507
-31386
-69292
141381
1725
101569
12879
1128
24080

-62106
-67886
-1040
-20293
-147776
174890
10
131597
13060
2407
27817

2.4
-10.3
-0.4
-10.0
0.0
41.2
5.3
46.0
39.7
25.6
284.4

-1.7
-35.5
-1.9
-13.6
-28.5
58.4
3.2
68.9
46.4
18.5
358.7

-6.2
-46.3
-0.8
-9.7
-63.8
61.0
0.0
77.5
32.4
21.3
365.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710

684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272

842862
125792
503278
464342
38936
214036
-244

905695
94053
533240
505159
28081
278961
-560

931628
89278
554798
533579
21218
288059
-506

-80872
-25681
-33386
-33040
-346
-21666
-139

-260933
-59856
-103436
-97001
-6434
-97052
-589

-367770
-116937
-129459
-123082
-6377
-120819
-554

-8.8
-17.0
-6.2
-6.6
-0.9
-9.2
133.2

-22.4
-38.9
-16.2
-16.1
-18.6
-25.8
-2068.9

-28.3
-56.7
-18.9
-18.7
-23.1
-29.5
-1146.3

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557

1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725

1978716
284501
710600
466952
260480
-244
256428

1892091
195302
661635
478610
173542
-560
383563

1821019
168106
631064
476863
83986
-506
461506

-53509
-43916
-34430
-49725
-59
-139
74760

-279457
-115577
-106942
-128438
-69292
-589
141381

-429875
-184823
-130500
-141112
-147776
-554
174890

-2.6
-13.4
-4.6
-9.6
0.0
133.2
41.2

-12.9
-37.2
-13.9
-21.2
-28.5
-2068.9
58.4

-19.1
-52.4
-17.1
-22.8
-63.8
-1146.3
61.0

26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9

18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1

14.4
35.9
23.6
13.2
13.0

10.3
35.0
25.3
9.2
20.3

9.2
34.7
26.2
4.6
25.3

-1.8
-0.7
-1.8
0.3
4.0

-4.0
-0.4
-2.7
-2.0
9.1

-6.4
0.8
-1.3
-5.7
12.6

-11.0
-2.0
-7.2
2.7
45.0

-27.9
-1.2
-9.5
-18.0
81.8

-41.1
2.4
-4.6
-55.2
99.0

2794856
818651
465941
1510263

3323905
971593
583374
1768938

3804258
1009601
878866
1915791

3829115
672627
1138323
2018165

3900939
325520
1341569
2233850

-187331
-229
106472
-293574

-833225 -1316699
-268575 -572766
180250
195463
-744900 -939396

-4.7
0.0
13.8
-13.3

-17.9
-28.5
18.8
-27.0

-25.2
-63.8
17.1
-29.6

394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0

425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0

439375
197946
35715
136406
49894
19414
0

423993
123865
23793
141655
105634
29046
0

421823
107743
23727
116884
139751
33718
0

-43211
-40472
-167
-36725
18617
15536
0

-106886
-110782
-1611
-66479
47740
24245
0

-151413
-179263
2617
-67168
64230
28170
0

-9.0
-17.0
-0.5
-21.2
59.5
400.6

-20.1
-47.2
-6.3
-31.9
82.5
505.0

-26.4
-62.5
12.4
-36.5
85.0
507.8

884427
713481
2
38512
132432

866713
771184
637
19379
75512

870593
769715
27598
17201
56079

857016
728699
65650
12795
49871

844090
701554
87662
12986
41888

-26358
-35477
10269
1446
-2596

-74091
-104111
33250
-1624
-1607

-83741
-128214
48349
-2493
-1382

-2.9
-4.4
59.3
9.2
-4.4

-8.0
-12.5
102.6
-11.3
-3.1

-9.0
-15.5
123.0
-16.1
-3.2
-17.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

83789

92950

91602

83719

79137

-4612

-14081

-16686

-4.8

-14.4

103762

115166

115648

119840

121819

-339

-451

-493

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

1145388

1220510

1364580

1380751

1399197

-34440

-177417

-256575

-2.5

-11.4

-15.5

394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860

375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964

413986
251130
162856
343558
193491
413545

449607
259291
190316
326163
184523
420458

487527
262798
224729
313596
174480
423594

180
693
-513
-10018
-15295
-9308

-11426
-5503
-5923
-66484
-54972
-44535

-10502
-5629
-4873
-104962
-84266
-56846

0.0
0.3
-0.3
-2.8
-7.3
-2.2

-2.5
-2.1
-3.0
-16.9
-23.0
-9.6

-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-25.1
-32.6
-11.8

137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359

69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512

58705
554399
295090
280871
80269
95246

48716
521845
305876
288683
87505
128124

41896
498957
323383
297722
91656
145583

-1104
-26530
-11604
-13555
-5415
23767

-2614
-96463
-49302
-62079
-7991
41030

-2244
-124172
-63874
-99460
-15750
48924

-1.8
-4.6
-3.8
-4.6
-6.3
33.2

-5.1
-15.6
-13.9
-17.7
-8.4
47.1

-5.1
-19.9
-16.5
-25.0
-14.7
50.6

4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6

4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4

3983.8
1259.1
125.4
671.1
513.0
271.1
1144.1

3504.1
924.6
94.0
683.4
469.0
257.1
1075.9

3306.1
796.9
81.9
722.0
433.9
242.3
1029.1

-392.7
-262.1
-19.8
-25.0
-18.6
-17.0
-50.2

-1075.4
-624.3
-37.4
-65.7
-90.7
-48.6
-208.7

-1449.3
-890.6
-29.9
-44.1
-133.3
-68.2
-283.1

-9.0
-17.2
-13.6
-3.6
-3.5
-5.9
-4.2

-23.5
-40.3
-28.4
-8.8
-16.2
-15.9
-16.2

-30.5
-52.8
-26.7
-5.8
-23.5
-22.0
-21.6

100.0

96.9

94.7

83.3

78.6

-9.3

-25.6

-34.4

-9.0

-23.5

-30.5

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

106

Europe-30: Combined high renewables and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9

562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4

582.130
11898.8
166.3
3.40
6535
2.01
6.84
334.8
41.5

594.587
15057.8
125.7
3.18
6440
1.85
5.89
232.7
46.5

600.252
18137.4
100.4
3.03
6499
1.82
5.51
182.3
49.6

0.000
0.0
-4.5
-0.09
-322
-0.14
-0.67
-33.0
-2.8

0.000
0.0
-18.6
-0.47
-1401
-0.26
-1.81
-71.4
-5.9

0.000
0.0
-23.7
-0.72
-2194
-0.30
-2.41
-79.9
-6.7

0.0
0.0
-2.6
-2.6
-4.7
-6.5
-9.0
-9.0
-6.3

0.0
0.0
-12.9
-12.9
-17.9
-12.2
-23.5
-23.5
-11.2

0.0
0.0
-19.1
-19.1
-25.2
-14.1
-30.5
-30.5
-11.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4

75.8
78.8
74.3
91.3

64.8
59.6
55.3
73.4

58.0
47.7
43.2
61.4

0.0
-2.3
-5.9
-2.1

-1.6
-12.1
-16.5
-7.8

-1.3
-16.0
-20.8
-8.2

0.0
-2.8
-7.3
-2.2

-2.5
-16.9
-23.0
-9.6

-2.1
-25.1
-32.6
-11.8

0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90

0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91

0.22
1.90
1.62
1.49
1.40
2.77

0.16
1.80
1.52
1.44
1.39
2.56

0.13
1.73
1.48
1.38
1.39
2.43

-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.06
-0.10
0.01
0.12
-0.20

-0.09
-0.05
-0.06
0.03
0.19
-0.30

-14.6
-1.7
-3.6
-0.7
1.5
-2.0

-30.6
-3.3
-6.4
0.9
9.1
-7.4

-40.9
-2.8
-3.7
2.1
15.7
-11.1

769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040

951309
142580
169754
110000
1705
527270
165788
176070
241117
69063
36093
0
4926

1039360
112689
176369
201504
11813
536985
224123
115486
260777
51523
101986
0
7212

1136749
45576
180625
269907
39184
601456
285234
121647
271501
41863
158169
0
8276

13500
0
4538
29039
0
-20077
-4002
-4557
-28320
-4535
13832
0
3502

-51879
-11530
3055
66487
6807
-116697
-13416
-69220
-94129
211
40813
0
5628

-164810
-65999
1286
73683
28370
-202151
-10014
-135856
-144832
4506
67491
0
6541

1.4
0.0
2.7
35.9
0.0
-3.7
-2.4
-2.5
-10.5
-6.2
62.1

-4.8
-9.3
1.8
49.2
136.0
-17.9
-5.6
-37.5
-26.5
0.4
66.7

-12.7
-59.2
0.7
37.6
262.3
-25.2
-3.4
-52.8
-34.8
12.1
74.4

246.0

355.1

376.8

35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6

37.5
45.7
18.4
55.3
26.5
28.8

40.9
42.1
27.4
62.2
17.6
44.6

45.5
39.2
35.2
63.0
8.3
54.7

-1.9
-2.9
1.0
8.1
1.2
6.8

-3.8
-6.7
5.9
15.7
-2.6
18.3

-2.1
-6.6
10.9
16.4
-8.9
25.3

-4.8
-6.0
6.0
17.1
4.9
31.1

-8.5
-13.8
27.8
33.7
-13.0
69.4

-4.3
-14.4
44.8
35.3
-51.5
86.2

5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4

7097.1
628.1
5452.1
489.1
481.6
46.2

8471.2
640.0
6562.2
540.5
671.9
56.5

9678.9
624.8
7550.4
596.4
843.1
64.2

-1.2
1.3
-2.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.0

-16.9
5.6
-20.5
1.6
-3.5
-0.2

-50.9
9.5
-55.8
5.8
-9.9
-0.4

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.9
-0.3
0.3
-0.5
-0.3

-0.5
1.5
-0.7
1.0
-1.2
-0.6

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320

10531

12192

14247

16125

-2.1

-28.4

-84.7

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5

2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0

3057.6
2252.7
454.4
350.5

3721.3
2854.2
482.4
384.8

4326.6
3405.0
510.5
411.1

-2.3
-3.1
0.6
0.1

-22.3
-24.7
1.1
1.4

-50.3
-55.1
1.3
3.5

-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0

-0.6
-0.9
0.2
0.4

-1.1
-1.6
0.3
0.9

257

253

257

247

239

-0.2

-1.5

-2.8

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229

361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394

413545
9044
182467
154314
9052
51471
7198

420458
8019
181963
167292
6776
48713
7696

423594
6608
175422
173058
6511
54088
7906

-9308
-44
-813
-672
-228
-7532
-19

-44535
-481
-5806
-18031
-632
-19373
-213

-56846
-663
-10488
-28397
-518
-16391
-388

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.8
-0.3

-9.6
-5.7
-3.1
-9.7
-8.5
-28.5
-2.7

-11.8
-9.1
-5.6
-14.1
-7.4
-23.3
-4.7

38.9
51.4

39.6
52.0

35.3
53.3

28.9
47.2

25.0
41.9

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.6

-2.7
-6.1

-3.3
-0.4

-9.4
-9.0

-9.8
-12.8

Source: PRIMES

107

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

108

APPENDIX 5: “Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and
efficiency” case results
Summary results by groups of countries (comparison to Baseline)

109

EU25: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

877543
351650
120396
139723
196920
68855
23391
42151
67
145
3101

898598
204139
163631
196665
237664
96499
28982
61865
1913
417
3322

878214
138557
116356
167751
248776
206774
31545
138261
21707
2122
13138

701347
85220
51384
97498
175939
291306
33517
199626
35659
3525
18979

614564
61908
42921
78791
86147
344797
34005
234662
47511
5423
23196

41797
-15970
-823
-4428
0
63018
1667
45854
5921
632
8944

-5174
-45862
-1575
-852
-52699
95813
1314
70434
9418
778
13868

-70539
-58289
-528
-1015
-124661
113955
124
85782
9569
1029
17450

5.0
-10.3
-0.7
-2.6
0.0
43.8
5.6
49.6
37.5
42.4
213.3

-0.7
-35.0
-3.0
-0.9
-23.0
49.0
4.1
54.5
35.9
28.3
271.4

-10.3
-48.5
-1.2
-1.3
-59.1
49.4
0.4
57.6
25.2
23.4
303.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

711300
75449
510017
479112
30905
123653
2181

801061
94307
518147
496826
21321
186463
2144

932898
108696
569458
531554
37904
252639
2105

994077
78835
589332
561467
27865
324268
1643

964342
73034
562527
540677
21850
326966
1815

-91377
-23591
-30240
-29803
-437
-37414
-131

-237614
-49560
-80534
-75208
-5326
-107042
-479

-301225
-99885
-89923
-85573
-4349
-111031
-387

-8.9
-17.8
-5.0
-5.3
-1.1
-12.9
-5.9

-19.3
-38.6
-12.0
-11.8
-16.0
-24.8
-22.6

-23.8
-57.8
-13.8
-13.7
-16.6
-25.3
-17.6

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1556194
431944
595746
260548
196920
2181
68855

1653841
306538
634711
376284
237664
2144
96499

1762952
247253
637655
420389
248776
2105
206774

1642548
164055
587840
421765
175939
1643
291306

1523473
134942
550016
405756
86147
1815
344797

-49580
-39562
-31063
-41842
0
-131
63018

-242788
-95421
-82108
-107894
-52699
-479
95813

-371764
-158174
-90450
-112046
-124661
-387
113955

-2.7
-13.8
-4.6
-9.1
0.0
-5.9
43.8

-12.9
-36.8
-12.3
-20.4
-23.0
-22.6
49.0

-19.6
-54.0
-14.1
-21.6
-59.1
-17.6
49.4

27.8
38.3
16.7
12.7
4.4

18.5
38.4
22.8
14.4
5.8

14.0
36.2
23.8
14.1
11.7

10.0
35.8
25.7
10.7
17.7

8.9
36.1
26.6
5.7
22.6

-1.8
-0.7
-1.7
0.4
3.8

-3.8
0.3
-2.4
-1.4
7.4

-6.6
2.3
-0.7
-5.5
10.5

-11.4
-2.0
-6.5
2.8
47.9

-27.4
0.7
-8.6
-11.7
71.0

-42.7
6.8
-2.5
-49.2
85.8

2455674
780056
272788
1402830

2900835
921193
359249
1620392

3318725
964265
620782
1733678

3269439
681942
811980
1775517

3241593
333901
968297
1939395

-164461
0
88238
-252698

-736336 -1125006
-204265 -483191
128129
124574
-660201 -766389

-4.7
0.0
16.6
-12.7

-18.4
-23.0
18.7
-27.1

-25.8
-59.1
14.8
-28.3

355362
246377
48954
47057
10201
2774
0

385987
214488
41870
105480
21211
2939
0

391799
178223
31880
121925
47139
12632
0

365632
106106
21638
126764
92597
18527
0

361270
87017
22503
106109
122841
22800
0

-40442
-36727
246
-30901
17992
8948
0

-97139
-92396
-1673
-55967
38978
13920
0

-128768
-153294
2708
-49139
53417
17539
0

-9.4
-17.1
0.8
-20.2
61.7
242.8

-21.0
-46.5
-7.2
-30.6
72.7
302.1

-26.3
-63.8
13.7
-31.7
76.9
333.4

797634
642275
2
31035
124322

796450
710448
637
17261
68104

790375
697019
26912
16807
49637

757863
654465
47096
11793
44509

723538
619191
56198
10690
37459

-22521
-31903
10120
1557
-2295

-66232
-79560
16092
-2024
-740

-73527
-88912
19823
-4044
-394

-2.8
-4.4
60.3
10.2
-4.4

-8.0
-10.8
51.9
-14.6
-1.6

-9.2
-12.6
54.5
-27.4
-1.0
-17.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

73032

80377

77779

70280

64868

-3719

-10886

-13266

-4.6

-13.4

Non-Energy Uses

94476

105950

107538

110826

111775

-309

-374

-390

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1021913

1095359

1208029

1184149

1156212

-29978

-154355

-214241

-2.4

-11.5

-15.6

341087
216809
124278
261006
146622
273198

330062
211616
118446
273302
158975
333020

356461
221303
135158
303199
175357
373011

373222
223826
149396
278669
164456
367801

384467
220864
163603
260050
153202
358493

40
543
-503
-8766
-13130
-8122

-9180
-4566
-4614
-60072
-47399
-37704

-7098
-4068
-3030
-91235
-72114
-43794

0.0
0.2
-0.4
-2.8
-7.0
-2.1

-2.4
-2.0
-3.0
-17.7
-22.4
-9.3

-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
-26.0
-32.0
-10.9

123937
428121
200242
176468
63092
30053

56633
468312
251885
211352
68712
38465

44503
493212
269026
247364
76089
77834

37950
457819
267478
247767
80372
92764

31925
427002
268496
248916
82887
96986

-699
-24130
-10148
-11946
-4088
21032

-1470
-72077
-42248
-55150
-7319
23909

-2099
-84835
-52901
-85127
-12438
23160

-1.5
-4.7
-3.6
-4.6
-5.1
37.0

-3.7
-13.6
-13.6
-18.2
-8.3
34.7

-6.2
-16.6
-16.5
-25.5
-13.0
31.4

3776.1
1362.6
141.5
698.9
506.1
274.2
792.7

3674.1
1294.9
144.9
567.7
452.1
244.6
969.9

3535.0
1130.8
106.5
557.9
465.0
246.5
1028.3

3055.0
809.9
83.7
549.1
412.6
232.9
966.6

2797.8
681.4
71.2
537.2
371.0
221.2
915.9

-346.9
-231.0
-17.4
-19.1
-17.7
-15.3
-46.4

-873.6
-523.3
-30.2
-46.1
-82.2
-42.9
-148.9

-1157.2
-742.6
-28.5
-32.6
-115.7
-60.7
-177.0

-8.9
-17.0
-14.1
-3.3
-3.7
-5.8
-4.3

-22.2
-39.3
-26.5
-7.7
-16.6
-15.5
-13.3

-29.3
-52.2
-28.6
-5.7
-23.8
-21.5
-16.2

100.0

97.3

93.6

80.9

74.1

-9.2

-23.1

-30.6

-8.9

-22.2

-29.3

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

110

EU25: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

440.788
7294.7
213.3
3.53
5571
2.43
8.57
517.7
44.7

452.915
8947.0
184.8
3.65
6405
2.22
8.11
410.7
47.2

464.054
10946.8
161.0
3.80
7152
2.01
7.62
322.9
51.5

469.270
13656.3
120.3
3.50
6967
1.86
6.51
223.7
58.6

469.365
16051.4
94.9
3.25
6906
1.84
5.96
174.3
61.1

0.000
0.0
-4.5
-0.11
-354
-0.14
-0.75
-31.7
-3.5

0.000
0.0
-17.8
-0.52
-1569
-0.22
-1.86
-64.0
-4.9

0.000
0.0
-23.2
-0.79
-2397
-0.25
-2.47
-72.1
-3.8

0.0
0.0
-2.7
-2.7
-4.7
-6.4
-8.9
-8.9
-6.4

0.0
0.0
-12.9
-12.9
-18.4
-10.7
-22.2
-22.2
-7.7

0.0
0.0
-19.6
-19.6
-25.8
-12.0
-29.3
-29.3
-5.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

83.8
85.8
84.9
99.4

77.3
78.1
74.0
91.0

65.1
58.1
54.8
71.9

57.5
46.3
43.1
59.6

0.0
-2.3
-5.5
-2.0

-1.6
-12.5
-15.8
-7.4

-1.1
-16.2
-20.3
-7.3

0.0
-2.8
-7.0
-2.1

-2.4
-17.7
-22.4
-9.3

-1.8
-26.0
-32.0
-10.9

0.41
2.22
2.05
1.94
1.87
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.72
1.65
1.54
2.91

0.23
1.90
1.57
1.53
1.41
2.76

0.16
1.83
1.47
1.48
1.42
2.63

0.14
1.77
1.40
1.43
1.44
2.55

-0.04
-0.03
-0.05
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.03
-0.09
0.02
0.11
-0.12

-0.09
-0.01
-0.06
0.04
0.19
-0.16

-14.4
-1.7
-3.3
-0.9
1.2
-2.2

-29.0
-1.5
-5.5
1.4
8.8
-4.5

-39.9
-0.3
-4.0
3.0
15.4
-6.0

661750
141082
97168
12785
176
410539
112958
188879
131875
74302
14462
0
1022

820334
136430
106856
104728
1658
470662
148288
152362
219613
61643
33631
0
3413

869160
105839
110451
173376
7027
472466
189667
92404
236128
47824
91251
0
4859

927423
41691
112533
233662
18101
521435
244767
98805
241079
39688
136045
0
5818

9827
0
2922
26336
0
-19432
-2582
-4175
-25826
-4406
12918
0
2057

-73421
-11097
1834
45753
2177
-112088
-19294
-64402
-85080
-106
34158
0
3342

-168869
-59525
332
50731
7737
-168145
-3232
-112430
-119055
4723
54443
0
4175

1.2
0.0
2.8
33.6
0.0
-4.0
-1.7
-2.7
-10.5
-6.7
62.4

-7.8
-9.5
1.7
35.8
44.9
-19.2
-9.2
-41.1
-26.5
-0.2
59.8

-15.4
-58.8
0.3
27.7
74.7
-24.4
-1.3
-53.2
-33.1
13.5
66.7

151.6

220.3

254.1

36.1
50.0
14.5
46.5
31.8
14.7

38.1
46.2
19.3
53.7
29.1
24.6

41.8
42.9
27.1
60.8
20.9
39.9

46.2
39.9
36.1
61.3
10.3
51.0

-1.5
-2.9
1.4
7.9
1.4
6.6

-3.5
-5.6
5.3
15.2
-1.3
16.5

-1.3
-5.6
11.8
15.0
-8.4
23.4

-3.7
-5.9
7.9
17.4
5.0
36.3

-7.7
-11.5
24.2
33.4
-5.7
70.3

-2.8
-12.2
48.7
32.5
-45.0
85.0

5466.3
480.1
4253.1
402.7
296.9
33.6

6448.0
496.0
5015.3
445.7
451.2
39.7

7390.0
483.7
5768.3
478.8
613.8
45.4

8100.4
472.0
6329.0
507.6
742.5
49.3

-1.4
1.0
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
0.0

-12.1
3.2
-12.5
0.3
-2.9
-0.1

-29.8
5.3
-29.5
2.0
-7.3
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.5
-0.2

-0.4
1.1
-0.5
0.4
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4640.8
504.1
3529.3
411.9
166.3
29.2

Travel per person (km per capita)

10528

12069

13895

15748

17258

-3.0

-25.7

-63.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1753.9
1034.1
461.7
258.1

2131.5
1486.3
374.2
271.0

2579.7
1889.4
401.0
289.2

3034.2
2296.1
421.4
316.8

3402.6
2624.9
439.4
338.3

-2.5
-1.7
-1.0
0.2

-14.5
-15.6
-0.1
1.2

-29.3
-32.4
0.5
2.7

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1

-0.5
-0.7
0.0
0.4

-0.9
-1.2
0.1
0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

240

238

236

222

212

-0.2

-1.1

-1.8

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

273198
7841
138202
82444
9066
28932
6714

333020
7018
158349
108068
8897
45320
5368

373011
6983
169440
135129
8098
47564
5796

367801
5904
163758
142363
5976
43750
6050

358493
4924
152452
143010
5553
46450
6104

-8122
-37
-737
-519
-209
-6610
-11

-37704
-370
-5143
-14468
-541
-17027
-155

-43794
-397
-7399
-21376
-466
-13908
-248

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.2
-0.2

-9.3
-5.9
-3.0
-9.2
-8.3
-28.0
-2.5

-10.9
-7.5
-4.6
-13.0
-7.7
-23.0
-3.9

39.3
51.7

39.9
53.9

35.8
55.1

29.6
49.1

25.8
43.9

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.6

-2.6
-6.0

-3.1
-0.3

-9.3
-8.6

-9.2
-12.0

Source: PRIMES

111

EU15: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

707946
210737
117782
132975
181439
65014
22275
39426
67
145
3101

761643
100172
160552
190581
222846
87491
27627
54257
1912
381
3315

741627
54086
114008
162008
231522
180003
29822
116323
20655
1878
11324

579540
38998
49288
92431
158352
240472
31659
155881
33595
3170
16167

497299
29048
41107
74066
73224
279853
32055
178707
44331
4914
19845

31990
-14172
-809
-4412
0
51384
1406
37005
5274
553
7146

-959
-20998
-1540
-604
-48810
70993
1116
49658
8416
725
11078

-54434
-29569
-490
-950
-104362
80937
41
56301
9424
1048
14124

4.5
-20.8
-0.7
-2.7
0.0
40.0
4.9
46.7
34.3
41.7
171.0

-0.2
-35.0
-3.0
-0.6
-23.6
41.9
3.7
46.7
33.4
29.7
217.7

-9.9
-50.4
-1.2
-1.3
-58.8
40.7
0.1
46.0
27.0
27.1
246.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

643284
89663
458793
435365
23428
92495
2333

741591
110142
472543
455606
16937
155262
3644

849580
116850
516400
487404
28996
212516
3814

891972
75780
531915
513341
18574
280648
3629

856373
69944
501626
489531
12095
279916
4886

-74845
-18231
-26359
-26428
69
-30246
-9

-202928
-47698
-71648
-67791
-3857
-83437
-145

-254470
-90009
-77792
-75370
-2421
-86594
-75

-8.1
-13.5
-4.9
-5.1
0.2
-12.5
-0.2

-18.5
-38.6
-11.9
-11.7
-17.2
-22.9
-3.8

-22.9
-56.3
-13.4
-13.3
-16.7
-23.6
-1.5

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1319965
303612
544159
223408
181439
2333
65014

1456936
215739
587926
339289
222846
3644
87491

1544189
170936
583391
374523
231522
3814
180003

1419910
114777
529601
373079
158352
3629
240472

1299596
98993
488657
353982
73224
4886
279853

-42856
-32403
-27169
-34658
0
-9
51384

-203887
-68696
-73188
-84042
-48810
-145
70993

-308904
-119578
-78282
-87545
-104362
-75
80937

-2.7
-15.9
-4.4
-8.5
0.0
-0.2
40.0

-12.6
-37.4
-12.1
-18.4
-23.6
-3.8
41.9

-19.2
-54.7
-13.8
-19.8
-58.8
-1.5
40.7

23.0
41.2
16.9
13.7
4.9

14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0

11.1
37.8
24.3
15.0
11.7

8.1
37.3
26.3
11.2
16.9

7.6
37.6
27.2
5.6
21.5

-1.7
-0.7
-1.5
0.4
3.6

-3.2
0.2
-1.9
-1.6
6.5

-6.0
2.4
-0.2
-5.4
9.2

-13.6
-1.8
-5.9
2.8
43.8

-28.5
0.5
-6.7
-12.6
62.3

-43.9
6.7
-0.8
-49.0
74.1

2138940
720059
259810
1159070

2576502
863760
343478
1369264

2940705
897389
588489
1454827

2859496
613775
766198
1479523

2801348
283815
907984
1609549

-142044
0
77674
-219718

-625246
-189186
114175
-550234

-934097
-404504
121917
-651510

-4.6
0.0
15.2
-13.1

-17.9
-23.6
17.5
-27.1

-25.0
-58.8
15.5
-28.8

282186
184170
43718
41697
9827
2774
0

319336
158097
38588
99188
20524
2939
0

319996
126309
29152
114346
39347
10841
0

298030
75391
19663
120769
66466
15743
0

295238
65558
20824
101949
87431
19476
0

-35984
-30046
453
-26589
13041
7157
0

-79194
-67414
-1296
-43084
21465
11135
0

-110324
-118628
3351
-37886
28624
14215
0

-10.1
-19.2
1.6
-18.9
49.6
194.2

-21.0
-47.2
-6.2
-26.3
47.7
241.7

-27.2
-64.4
19.2
-27.1
48.7
270.2

704402
595036
2
13085
96279

725664
665476
604
8717
50868

720320
649606
24682
8610
37421

685565
603170
42668
6226
33501

648858
565023
50494
5602
27740

-19629
-28480
9157
1874
-2180

-57287
-72016
14474
765
-510

-60963
-78589
17974
-45
-302

-2.7
-4.2
59.0
27.8
-5.5

-7.7
-10.7
51.3
14.0
-1.5

-8.6
-12.2
55.3
-0.8
-1.1
-17.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

63555

67696

65780

58530

53118

-3064

-8991

-11090

-4.5

-13.3

Non-Energy Uses

84387

95815

96788

97458

96447

-274

-338

-336

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

866453

970663

1061077

1027008

991068

-25658

-128097

-172858

-2.4

-11.1

-14.9

272481
182306
90175
220020
121346
252606

284781
182967
101814
238404
137376
310102

306803
192035
114768
261642
151097
341535

316038
191797
124240
236468
140704
333798

320812
187195
133617
218066
129582
322608

34
520
-486
-7479
-10524
-7689

-7020
-3493
-3527
-50530
-36513
-34034

-5321
-3059
-2262
-75048
-54907
-37583

0.0
0.3
-0.4
-2.8
-6.5
-2.2

-2.2
-1.8
-2.8
-17.6
-20.6
-9.3

-1.6
-1.6
-1.7
-25.6
-29.8
-10.4

79761
393325
173014
155929
36558
27865

35330
434547
226415
191711
50708
31953

27850
450978
235978
222907
56867
66497

24430
412275
230095
219951
61797
78461

20773
379163
227395
219046
63975
80715

-774
-22159
-8688
-10257
-3024
19244

-885
-64981
-35397
-46656
-2959
22782

-839
-74692
-43705
-70050
-5015
21443

-2.7
-4.7
-3.6
-4.4
-5.0
40.7

-3.5
-13.6
-13.3
-17.5
-4.6
40.9

-3.9
-16.5
-16.1
-24.2
-7.3
36.2

3068.4
1021.1
127.2
545.2
419.7
220.7
734.5

3127.0
1014.7
127.0
471.6
401.5
207.4
904.8

3000.3
876.7
98.6
457.3
411.7
213.3
942.8

2615.4
657.9
76.2
439.6
363.5
199.7
878.5

2398.6
575.8
63.4
422.9
325.4
185.9
825.2

-290.6
-187.0
-14.1
-18.5
-15.5
-12.4
-43.0

-685.6
-378.6
-26.5
-41.1
-71.3
-33.6
-134.5

-912.4
-556.9
-26.0
-28.3
-99.8
-46.8
-154.6

-8.8
-17.6
-12.5
-3.9
-3.6
-5.5
-4.4

-20.8
-36.5
-25.8
-8.5
-16.4
-14.4
-13.3

-27.6
-49.2
-29.1
-6.3
-23.5
-20.1
-15.8

100.0

101.9

97.8

85.2

78.2

-9.5

-22.3

-29.7

-8.8

-20.8

-27.6

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

112

EU15: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

365.749
6981.9
189.1
3.61
5848
2.32
8.39
439.5
47.5

378.062
8572.2
170.0
3.85
6815
2.15
8.27
364.8
49.5

390.652
10391.5
148.6
3.95
7528
1.94
7.68
288.7
53.4

397.458
12835.7
110.6
3.57
7194
1.84
6.58
203.8
60.6

398.737
14948.8
86.9
3.26
7026
1.85
6.02
160.5
63.3

0.000
0.0
-4.1
-0.11
-364
-0.13
-0.74
-28.0
-3.2

0.000
0.0
-15.9
-0.51
-1573
-0.19
-1.73
-53.4
-4.7

0.000
0.0
-20.7
-0.77
-2343
-0.21
-2.29
-61.0
-3.6

0.0
0.0
-2.7
-2.7
-4.6
-6.3
-8.8
-8.8
-5.6

0.0
0.0
-12.6
-12.6
-17.9
-9.4
-20.8
-20.8
-7.2

0.0
0.0
-19.2
-19.2
-25.0
-10.3
-27.6
-27.6
-5.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

90.9
88.8
88.7
100.0

85.3
80.8
77.6
90.8

71.8
59.7
57.5
71.9

63.1
47.5
45.1
59.6

0.0
-2.3
-5.4
-2.0

-1.6
-12.8
-14.9
-7.3

-1.0
-16.4
-19.1
-6.9

0.0
-2.8
-6.5
-2.2

-2.2
-17.6
-20.6
-9.3

-1.6
-25.6
-29.8
-10.4

0.39
2.22
2.00
1.91
1.82
2.91

0.27
2.05
1.66
1.68
1.51
2.92

0.20
1.91
1.49
1.57
1.41
2.76

0.16
1.83
1.39
1.54
1.42
2.63

0.14
1.78
1.32
1.49
1.43
2.56

-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.06
-0.04
-0.10
0.02
0.10
-0.12

-0.08
-0.02
-0.07
0.04
0.17
-0.16

-15.2
-1.9
-3.9
-0.9
1.1
-2.2

-26.4
-2.1
-6.5
1.5
7.8
-4.4

-36.9
-1.1
-4.7
2.9
13.8
-6.0

588083
131758
90794
12769
176
352586
88543
144882
125804
67470
13407
0
1022

733411
127644
99471
98838
1645
405813
122181
113327
208661
54574
26235
0
3017

771232
97053
102706
162297
6890
402287
160245
68770
223210
43216
62848
0
4243

802293
35169
104524
216862
17564
428174
198118
75625
220727
36210
90529
0
5083

9241
0
2357
22706
0
-15822
-2518
-3194
-19291
-4407
9409
0
1661

-56858
-9145
1438
40966
2177
-92294
-15304
-48379
-66413
1487
18284
0
2726

-127261
-49499
128
50052
7737
-135679
4105
-78560
-94652
6794
27300
0
3440

1.3
0.0
2.4
29.8
0.0
-3.8
-2.0
-2.7
-8.5
-7.5
55.9

-6.9
-8.6
1.4
33.8
46.2
-18.7
-8.7
-41.3
-22.9
3.6
41.0

-13.7
-58.5
0.1
30.0
78.7
-24.1
2.1
-51.0
-30.0
23.1
43.2

122.4

179.7

209.3

36.9
50.0
13.4
49.4
33.5
15.9

39.1
45.8
18.0
56.0
30.5
25.5

42.7
42.3
26.2
60.4
21.5
38.9

46.9
39.9
34.4
60.0
10.1
49.8

-1.4
-2.8
1.3
7.5
1.4
6.1

-3.6
-5.7
5.8
12.5
-1.6
14.1

-1.1
-6.0
12.8
12.2
-8.3
20.5

-3.4
-5.8
7.5
15.5
4.8
31.6

-7.7
-11.9
28.2
26.2
-6.8
56.8

-2.2
-13.1
59.1
25.6
-45.0
70.0

4997.7
401.8
3928.0
351.3
283.6
33.0

5831.0
423.3
4544.9
395.7
428.1
39.1

6636.1
416.5
5164.4
430.1
580.4
44.7

7205.6
408.7
5588.8
459.5
700.1
48.5

-1.0
0.8
-0.9
-0.5
-0.3
0.0

-9.8
2.5
-10.0
0.5
-2.7
-0.1

-23.2
4.2
-22.9
2.4
-6.7
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.1
0.6
-0.2
0.1
-0.5
-0.2

-0.3
1.0
-0.4
0.5
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4130.1
369.0
3265.7
309.8
157.3
28.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

11292

13219

14926

16696

18071

-2.5

-24.6

-58.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1419.2
914.2
254.9
250.1

1825.6
1309.3
249.5
266.8

2141.5
1589.1
267.4
284.9

2480.9
1888.2
280.4
312.3

2755.3
2132.3
289.4
333.7

-1.6
-1.1
-0.7
0.2

-10.5
-11.5
-0.3
1.2

-20.9
-24.2
0.6
2.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.1

-0.4
-0.6
-0.1
0.4

-0.8
-1.1
0.2
0.8

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

203

213

206

193

184

-0.2

-0.8

-1.4

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

252606
6250
129911
75351
6970
27742
6383

310102
5860
146708
100615
7579
44025
5314

341535
5925
154543
122725
6937
45666
5740

333798
5048
147747
127880
5121
42012
5990

322608
4259
135981
127035
4811
44478
6043

-7689
-32
-639
-460
-176
-6370
-11

-34034
-309
-4422
-12611
-424
-16114
-154

-37583
-295
-4754
-18678
-322
-13288
-246

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
-12.2
-0.2

-9.3
-5.8
-2.9
-9.0
-7.6
-27.7
-2.5

-10.4
-6.5
-3.4
-12.8
-6.3
-23.0
-3.9

41.2
58.0

40.7
58.5

36.4
60.3

30.1
54.0

26.3
48.3

-1.2
-0.2

-3.1
-4.9

-2.5
-6.5

-3.3
-0.3

-9.4
-8.4

-8.6
-11.8

Source: PRIMES

113

NMS: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

169598
140913
2614
6749
15481
3841
1116
2725
0
0
0

136955
103966
3079
6084
14818
9008
1355
7609
1
35
8

136587
84471
2347
5743
17254
26771
1723
21938
1052
243
1814

121807
46223
2096
5067
17587
50834
1858
43745
2064
354
2812

117265
32860
1814
4724
12922
64945
1950
55955
3179
509
3351

9808
-1798
-13
-15
0
11634
261
8849
647
78
1798

-4215
-24864
-35
-247
-3890
24820
198
20777
1002
53
2791

-16105
7.7
-3.3
-12.1
-28720
-2.1
-35.0
-46.6
-38
-0.6
-1.6
-2.0
-65
-0.3
-4.7
-1.4
-20299
0.0
-18.1
-61.1
33018
76.9
95.4
103.4
83
17.9
11.9
4.5
29482
67.6
90.5
111.4
145
159.7
94.3
4.8
-19
47.6
17.5
-3.6
3326 11614.0 13295.0 13453.5

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

68016
-14214
51224
43747
7477
31158
-152

59470
-15836
45604
41220
4384
31202
-1500

83318
-8154
53058
44150
8908
40123
-1709

102105
3055
57416
48126
9290
43619
-1986

107969
3090
60901
51146
9755
47050
-3072

-16532
-5360
-3881
-3375
-506
-7168
-122

-34686
-1862
-8886
-7417
-1468
-23605
-334

-46755
-9876
-12131
-10203
-1928
-24436
-312

-16.6
191.9
-6.8
-7.1
-5.4
-15.2
7.7

-25.4
-37.9
-13.4
-13.4
-13.6
-35.1
20.2

-30.2
-76.2
-16.6
-16.6
-16.5
-34.2
11.3

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

236229
128332
51587
37140
15481
-152
3841

196904
90799
46785
36994
14818
-1500
9008

218763
76317
54264
45866
17254
-1709
26771

222638
49278
58239
48687
17587
-1986
50834

223878
35950
61359
51774
12922
-3072
64945

-6724
-7158
-3894
-7184
0
-122
11634

-38901
-26725
-8920
-23852
-3890
-334
24820

-62860
-38597
-12169
-24501
-20299
-312
33018

-3.0
-8.6
-6.7
-13.5
0.0
7.7
76.9

-14.9
-35.2
-13.3
-32.9
-18.1
20.2
95.4

-21.9
-51.8
-16.5
-32.1
-61.1
11.3
103.4

54.3
21.8
15.7
6.6
1.6

46.1
23.8
18.8
7.5
4.6

34.9
24.8
21.0
7.9
12.2

22.1
26.2
21.9
7.9
22.8

16.1
27.4
23.1
5.8
29.0

-2.1
-1.0
-2.6
0.2
5.5

-6.9
0.5
-5.9
-0.3
12.9

-9.9
1.8
-3.5
-5.8
17.9

-5.8
-3.8
-10.9
3.1
82.3

-23.8
1.9
-21.2
-3.8
129.6

-38.2
6.9
-13.1
-50.2
160.5

316734
59996
12978
243760

324333
57434
15771
251128

378020
66876
32292
278851

409943
68167
45782
295993

440245
50086
60314
329846

-22416
0
10564
-32980

-111091
-15079
13955
-109967

-190909
-78687
2657
-114879

-5.6
0.0
48.6
-10.6

-21.3
-18.1
43.8
-27.1

-30.2
-61.1
4.6
-25.8

73176
62206
5236
5360
374
0
0

66652
56391
3281
6292
687
0
0

71803
51913
2728
7580
7792
1791
0

67602
30715
1976
5995
26132
2785
0

66032
21459
1679
4160
35410
3324
0

-4457
-6681
-206
-4312
4951
1791
0

-17945
-24981
-378
-12883
17513
2785
0

-18444
-34666
-643
-11253
24793
3324
0

-5.8
-11.4
-7.0
-36.3
174.3

-21.0
-44.9
-16.0
-68.2
203.2

-21.8
-61.8
-27.7
-73.0
233.5

93232
47239
0
17949
28043

70786
44972
33
8544
17236

70056
47413
2230
8197
12216

72298
51294
4429
5567
11008

74680
54168
5704
5088
9719

-2892
-3423
963
-317
-116

-8945
-7544
1618
-2789
-230

-12564
-10323
1850
-3998
-92

-4.0
-6.7
76.0
-3.7
-0.9

-11.0
-12.8
57.6
-33.4
-2.0

-14.4
-16.0
48.0
-44.0
-0.9
-15.6

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

9477

12681

11998

11750

11750

-655

-1895

-2177

-5.2

-13.9

10089

10135

10750

13368

15328

-35

-35

-54

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

155460

124696

146951

157141

165145

-4320

-26258

-41383

-2.9

-14.3

-20.0

68606
34503
34103
40986
25276
20592

45281
28649
16632
34898
21599
22917

49658
29269
20389
41558
24260
31476

57185
32029
25156
42202
23752
34003

63655
33670
29986
41984
23620
35885

6
23
-17
-1287
-2606
-434

-2160
-1073
-1088
-9542
-10886
-3670

-1777
-1009
-768
-16188
-17207
-6211

0.0
0.1
-0.1
-3.0
-9.7
-1.4

-3.6
-3.2
-4.1
-18.4
-31.4
-9.7

-2.7
-2.9
-2.5
-27.8
-42.1
-14.8

44176
34795
27229
20539
26534
2188

21303
33764
25471
19641
18005
6512

16652
42235
33048
24457
19222
11337

13520
45544
37382
27817
18575
14303

11152
47839
41101
29870
18911
16270

75
-1970
-1460
-1689
-1064
1788

-585
-7096
-6851
-8494
-4360
1128

-1260
-10143
-9196
-15077
-7423
1716

0.5
-4.5
-4.2
-6.5
-5.2
18.7

-4.1
-13.5
-15.5
-23.4
-19.0
8.6

-10.2
-17.5
-18.3
-33.5
-28.2
11.8

CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

707.7
341.5
14.3
153.7
86.4
53.5
58.2

547.1
280.2
17.9
96.1
50.6
37.2
65.1

534.7
254.2
7.9
100.6
53.3
33.2
85.5

439.5
152.0
7.5
109.5
49.2
33.3
88.1

399.2
105.6
7.7
114.3
45.6
35.3
90.7

-56.3
-44.0
-3.3
-0.6
-2.1
-2.9
-3.4

-188.0
-144.7
-3.7
-5.0
-10.9
-9.3
-14.4

-244.8
-185.8
-2.4
-4.3
-15.9
-13.9
-22.4

-9.5
-14.8
-29.4
-0.6
-3.9
-8.1
-3.8

-30.0
-48.8
-33.3
-4.4
-18.1
-21.8
-14.0

-38.0
-63.7
-24.1
-3.6
-25.9
-28.3
-19.8

CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

77.3

75.6

62.1

56.4

-8.0

-26.6

-34.6

-9.5

-30.0

-38.0

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other

Source: PRIMES

114

NMS: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

75.039
312.8
755.2
3.15
4221
3.00
9.43
2262.2
28.7

74.853
374.8
525.3
2.63
4333
2.78
7.31
1459.6
30.1

73.401
555.3
393.9
2.98
5150
2.44
7.28
962.9
37.9

71.813
820.6
271.3
3.10
5708
1.97
6.12
535.6
45.6

70.628
1102.7
203.0
3.17
6233
1.78
5.65
362.1
47.9

0.000
0.0
-12.1
-0.09
-305
-0.18
-0.77
-101.4
-6.2

0.000
0.0
-47.4
-0.54
-1547
-0.43
-2.62
-229.1
-6.4

0.000
0.0
-57.0
-0.89
-2703
-0.46
-3.47
-222.0
-5.8

0.0
0.0
-3.0
-3.0
-5.6
-6.7
-9.5
-9.5
-14.0

0.0
0.0
-14.9
-14.9
-21.3
-17.7
-30.0
-30.0
-12.4

0.0
0.0
-21.9
-21.9
-30.2
-20.6
-38.0
-38.0
-10.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

52.9
70.0
65.9
92.9

35.2
55.3
49.8
86.1

27.2
37.6
32.4
62.9

23.3
27.7
23.2
49.4

0.0
-1.7
-5.3
-1.2

-1.0
-8.5
-14.8
-6.8

-0.7
-10.7
-16.9
-8.6

0.0
-3.0
-9.7
-1.4

-3.6
-18.4
-31.4
-9.7

-2.7
-27.8
-42.1
-14.8

0.50
2.26
2.24
2.11
2.12
2.83

0.46
2.00
2.12
1.45
1.72
2.84

0.36
1.85
2.03
1.28
1.37
2.72

0.21
1.78
1.92
1.16
1.40
2.59

0.13
1.73
1.80
1.09
1.49
2.53

-0.05
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.02
-0.07

-0.12
0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.17
-0.13

-0.14
0.07
-0.02
0.03
0.29
-0.16

-11.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.9
1.8
-2.5

-37.6
2.3
-0.8
0.4
14.1
-4.7

-51.4
4.4
-1.0
2.7
23.9
-5.9

73667
9324
6374
16
0
57953
24415
43996
6071
6832
1055
0
0

86923
8786
7385
5890
13
64849
26107
39035
10952
7070
7396
0
396

97927
8786
7745
11080
138
70179
29422
23634
12918
4608
28404
0
616

125130
6522
8009
16801
537
93261
46649
23180
20351
3478
45516
0
735

585
0
565
3631
0
-3610
-64
-981
-6534
1
3508
0
396

-16563
-1952
395
4787
0
-19794
-3990
-16023
-18667
-1594
15874
0
616

-41609
-10026
204
679
0
-32465
-7337
-33870
-24403
-2072
27144
0
735

0.7
0.0
8.3
160.7
0.0
-5.3
-0.2
-2.5
-37.4
0.0
90.2

-14.5
-18.2
5.4
76.1
0.0
-22.0
-11.9
-40.4
-59.1
-25.7
126.7

-25.0
-60.6
2.6
4.2
0.0
-25.8
-13.6
-59.4
-54.5
-37.3
147.7

32.4
50.3
23.5
23.3
17.7
5.6

33.4
49.6
29.3
35.7
17.7
18.0

37.7
47.8
33.3
63.7
16.6
47.0

43.0
40.2
46.7
70.0
11.4
58.7

-1.8
-3.3
2.6
10.9
1.0
9.9

-3.2
-4.2
2.3
33.3
0.7
32.7

-2.3
-3.0
6.8
32.2
-9.0
41.2

-5.0
-6.2
9.8
44.1
5.9
123.2

-7.7
-8.0
7.5
109.9
4.1
227.6

-5.1
-7.1
17.1
85.1
-44.2
236.4

468.6
78.3
325.1
51.4
13.3
0.6

617.0
72.7
470.4
50.0
23.2
0.7

753.9
67.2
603.9
48.7
33.4
0.7

894.8
63.3
740.2
48.1
42.4
0.8

-0.4
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0

-2.3
0.6
-2.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.0

-6.6
1.0
-6.6
-0.5
-0.5
0.0

-0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.0

-0.3
0.9
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2

-0.7
1.7
-0.9
-1.0
-1.2
-0.5

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

510.7
135.1
263.6
102.1
9.0
0.8

Travel per person (km per capita)

6805

6261

8405

10498

12669

-5.3

-31.6

-93.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

334.6
119.9
206.8
7.9

305.9
177.1
124.7
4.2

438.2
300.3
133.6
4.3

553.4
407.9
141.0
4.5

647.3
492.7
150.0
4.6

-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0.0

-3.9
-4.2
0.2
0.0

-8.4
-8.2
-0.2
0.1

-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.2

-0.7
-1.0
0.1
0.6

-1.3
-1.6
-0.1
1.1

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

1070

816

789

674

587

-1.6

-4.8

-7.6

-0.2

-0.7

-1.3

20592
1591
8290
7093
2096
1190
331

22917
1159
11641
7453
1317
1294
54

31476
1059
14897
12405
1161
1898
56

34003
856
16010
14483
856
1738
60

35885
665
16471
15974
742
1972
61

-434
-5
-97
-59
-33
-240
0

-3670
-61
-721
-1857
-118
-912
-1

-6211
-102
-2645
-2698
-144
-620
-2

-1.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-2.7
-11.2
-0.1

-9.7
-6.6
-4.3
-11.4
-12.1
-34.4
-2.0

-14.8
-13.3
-13.8
-14.4
-16.2
-23.9
-3.9

23.9
25.0

31.4
26.7

29.7
30.0

25.1
27.3

21.6
25.5

-0.6
-0.1

-2.2
-3.3

-3.6
-4.0

-1.8
-0.4

-8.2
-10.7

-14.3
-13.5

Source: PRIMES

115

EU27: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

928078
364706
128402
162645
200702
71623
25013
43297
67
145
3101

937145
214324
170011
207644
243761
101405
30483
65264
1913
417
3329

921475
149806
122602
180188
253537
215342
33747
143836
21849
2155
13755

745368
95701
57545
108674
182144
301304
35931
205824
35858
3683
20008

659716
73213
49126
88735
92355
356287
36636
241841
47831
5663
24316

43287
-16070
-823
-4717
0
64896
2030
46683
6013
641
9529

-5701
-47288
-1627
-852
-53548
97614
1555
71002
9457
810
14789

-72929
-58311
-528
-1015
-128952
115877
225
86476
9700
1042
18434

4.9
-9.7
-0.7
-2.6
0.0
43.1
6.4
48.1
38.0
42.3
225.5

-0.8
-33.1
-2.7
-0.8
-22.7
47.9
4.5
52.7
35.8
28.2
283.4

-10.0
-44.3
-1.1
-1.1
-58.3
48.2
0.6
55.7
25.4
22.6
313.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

749474
81418
529724
503451
26273
135011
3321

817569
98469
525771
507009
18762
191643
1687

955723
114336
581141
546639
34502
258762
1484

1024437
84481
603396
579376
24020
335454
1106

1003707
81423
578897
561349
17548
342034
1353

-92821
-23642
-31088
-30785
-303
-37960
-132

-247378
-53058
-83047
-78213
-4834
-110793
-480

-311621
-103250
-93480
-89822
-3658
-114503
-388

-8.9
-17.1
-5.1
-5.3
-0.9
-12.8
-8.2

-19.5
-38.6
-12.1
-11.9
-16.8
-24.8
-30.3

-23.7
-55.9
-13.9
-13.8
-17.2
-25.1
-22.3

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1645474
450795
624250
294782
200702
3321
71623

1709133
320708
648970
392603
243761
1687
101405

1828917
264142
655462
438950
253537
1484
215342

1716767
180182
607902
444129
182144
1106
301304

1607793
154636
572392
430769
92355
1353
356287

-49534
-39711
-31911
-42676
0
-132
64896

-253079
-100346
-84674
-111644
-53548
-480
97614

-384550
-161560
-94008
-115519
-128952
-388
115877

-2.6
-13.1
-4.6
-8.9
0.0
-8.2
43.1

-12.8
-35.8
-12.2
-20.1
-22.7
-30.3
47.9

-19.3
-51.1
-14.1
-21.1
-58.3
-22.3
48.2

27.4
37.9
17.9
12.2
4.4

18.8
38.0
23.0
14.3
5.9

14.4
35.8
24.0
13.9
11.8

10.5
35.4
25.9
10.6
17.6

9.6
35.6
26.8
5.7
22.2

-1.7
-0.8
-1.6
0.4
3.8

-3.7
0.3
-2.3
-1.4
7.2

-6.3
2.2
-0.6
-5.4
10.1

-10.7
-2.1
-6.4
2.7
47.0

-26.3
0.7
-8.3
-11.3
69.7

-39.4
6.4
-2.3
-48.3
83.6

2561205
794718
291642
1474844

2993398
944823
376697
1671878

3432599
982718
648026
1801855

3402333
705992
842393
1853948

3399546
357966
1002695
2038885

-169568
0
93524
-263092

-761375 -1164871
-207553 -499822
131390
127266
-685212 -792315

-4.7
0.0
16.9
-12.7

-18.3
-22.7
18.5
-27.0

-25.5
-58.3
14.5
-28.0

384763
261342
56108
54301
10237
2774
0

402753
225135
43691
109769
21219
2939
0

411161
191303
33622
125195
47839
13203
0

384580
118631
22549
130569
93415
19416
0

381354
102953
22762
108191
123680
23768
0

-41268
-36790
-157
-32101
18263
9518
0

-103433
-96916
-1690
-58655
39020
14808
0

-133845
-156284
2627
-52112
53417
18508
0

-9.1
-16.1
-0.5
-20.4
61.8
258.3

-21.2
-45.0
-7.0
-31.0
71.7
321.4

-26.0
-60.3
13.0
-32.5
76.0
351.8

840016
673728
2
38458
127829

818581
727122
637
19291
71530

815505
718350
27052
16990
53113

785664
678534
47613
11793
47723

754807
646068
57752
10690
40297

-23485
-32885
10149
1555
-2304

-69294
-82617
16289
-2123
-844

-77331
-93160
20381
-4155
-397

-2.8
-4.4
60.0
10.1
-4.2

-8.1
-10.9
52.0
-15.3
-1.7

-9.3
-12.6
54.5
-28.0
-1.0
-16.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption

78427

85834

84774

77467

72683

-3812

-11888

-14383

-4.3

-13.3

Non-Energy Uses

98844

109187

110068

113779

115186

-318

-385

-402

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1071205

1126314

1250593

1236854

1220091

-30567

-160334

-223173

-2.4

-11.5

-15.5

372041
239834
132206
267394
151680
280091

342654
220752
121902
283857
161545
338258

374052
233732
140321
314998
178481
383061

396305
239480
156825
291827
167664
381059

414269
240878
173391
273720
156371
375731

-18
530
-548
-8883
-13419
-8247

-10216
-5291
-4925
-61623
-49081
-39414

-7667
-4453
-3214
-93939
-75331
-46236

0.0
0.2
-0.4
-2.7
-7.0
-2.1

-2.5
-2.2
-3.0
-17.4
-22.6
-9.4

-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
-25.6
-32.5
-11.0

128087
441141
219636
183815
67635
30892

58191
476894
259889
216343
73194
41802

46554
507063
280395
254278
79592
82711

39843
474771
282992
256631
84270
98347

34089
446875
288756
259847
87088
103436

-766
-24406
-10328
-12308
-4331
21570

-1767
-74511
-43408
-56851
-8258
24463

-2401
-88251
-54122
-88046
-14145
23793

-1.6
-4.6
-3.6
-4.6
-5.2
35.3

-4.2
-13.6
-13.3
-18.1
-8.9
33.1

-6.6
-16.5
-15.8
-25.3
-14.0
29.9

4009.9
1483.5
151.1
761.0
516.6
285.7
812.0

3800.2
1359.8
154.0
594.1
459.7
247.7
984.9

3690.8
1198.5
117.2
592.1
475.6
250.1
1057.2

3222.1
873.6
91.6
590.4
425.5
237.0
1004.1

2991.4
752.5
77.2
588.9
384.8
225.4
962.7

-352.0
-235.6
-16.5
-19.5
-18.2
-15.5
-46.7

-909.5
-548.1
-30.1
-48.5
-84.2
-44.2
-154.3

-1189.0
-762.0
-26.8
-32.6
-118.7
-63.5
-185.5

-8.7
-16.4
-12.4
-3.2
-3.7
-5.8
-4.2

-22.0
-38.6
-24.7
-7.6
-16.5
-15.7
-13.3

-28.4
-50.3
-25.8
-5.2
-23.6
-22.0
-16.2

100.0

94.8

92.0

80.4

74.6

-8.8

-22.7

-29.7

-8.7

-22.0

-28.4

Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

116

EU27: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

472.712
7358.9
223.6
3.48
5418
2.44
8.48
544.9
44.6

483.520
9001.0
189.9
3.53
6191
2.22
7.86
422.2
46.7

492.838
11044.1
165.6
3.71
6965
2.02
7.49
334.2
50.9

496.408
13825.4
124.2
3.46
6854
1.88
6.49
233.1
57.9

494.784
16315.6
98.5
3.25
6871
1.86
6.05
183.3
60.3

0.000
0.0
-4.5
-0.10
-344
-0.13
-0.71
-31.9
-3.5

0.000
0.0
-18.3
-0.51
-1534
-0.22
-1.83
-65.8
-5.0

0.000
0.0
-23.6
-0.78
-2354
-0.24
-2.40
-72.9
-3.9

0.0
0.0
-2.6
-2.6
-4.7
-6.2
-8.7
-8.7
-6.4

0.0
0.0
-12.8
-12.8
-18.3
-10.5
-22.0
-22.0
-7.9

0.0
0.0
-19.3
-19.3
-25.5
-11.3
-28.4
-28.4
-6.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

80.2
87.2
83.5
98.7

74.4
79.1
72.8
91.1

63.1
59.1
53.9
72.4

56.2
47.2
42.3
60.5

0.0
-2.2
-5.5
-2.0

-1.6
-12.5
-15.8
-7.5

-1.0
-16.2
-20.4
-7.4

0.0
-2.7
-7.0
-2.1

-2.5
-17.4
-22.6
-9.4

-1.8
-25.6
-32.5
-11.0

0.42
2.22
2.05
1.93
1.88
2.90

0.30
2.03
1.73
1.62
1.53
2.91

0.23
1.90
1.58
1.51
1.40
2.76

0.17
1.82
1.49
1.46
1.41
2.64

0.14
1.77
1.42
1.41
1.44
2.56

-0.04
-0.03
-0.05
-0.01
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.03
-0.08
0.02
0.12
-0.12

-0.09
0.00
-0.05
0.04
0.19
-0.16

-13.9
-1.7
-3.2
-1.0
1.2
-2.2

-28.3
-1.5
-5.2
1.1
8.9
-4.4

-37.8
-0.2
-3.5
2.7
15.6
-5.8

697174
145542
105185
12786
176
433485
120284
203503
135927
78309
14723
0
1022

858317
139130
116033
105906
1661
495587
158752
165705
226407
65480
34456
0
3539

907151
109239
120324
175121
7042
495424
203616
107873
241321
49024
92151
0
5056

976112
44737
122950
236753
18173
553499
265176
116244
250416
40015
140791
0
6033

8995
0
3657
27100
0
-21762
-4890
-4737
-27962
-4406
13161
0
2183

-76323
-11530
2443
46165
2177
-115579
-22101
-64162
-88377
-127
33548
0
3539

-180206
-61700
780
52250
7737
-179274
-8999
-115116
-128882
4684
55650
0
4389

1.1
0.0
3.3
34.4
0.0
-4.2
-3.0
-2.8
-11.0
-6.3
61.8

-7.8
-9.5
2.1
35.8
44.8
-18.9
-9.8
-37.3
-26.8
-0.3
57.2

-15.6
-58.0
0.6
28.3
74.1
-24.5
-3.3
-49.8
-34.0
13.3
65.4

160.9

233.3

267.1

35.7
49.0
14.9
46.4
31.6
14.9

37.7
45.7
19.7
53.3
28.6
24.7

41.5
42.8
28.0
60.1
20.8
39.4

46.0
39.8
37.2
60.3
10.5
49.8

-1.6
-2.8
1.1
7.9
1.3
6.6

-3.3
-5.5
5.2
14.9
-1.2
16.1

-1.3
-5.3
11.4
14.4
-8.3
22.6

-4.0
-5.7
6.0
17.5
4.9
36.3

-7.3
-11.4
23.1
33.0
-5.4
69.2

-2.7
-11.8
44.2
31.3
-44.0
83.4

5568.5
502.3
4316.4
417.8
298.4
33.6

6594.5
518.0
5125.0
457.0
454.7
39.7

7609.8
508.1
5940.1
494.3
621.9
45.4

8393.5
500.7
6555.0
528.7
759.7
49.4

-1.5
1.0
-1.4
-0.8
-0.4
0.0

-12.6
3.8
-13.8
0.5
-3.0
-0.1

-31.4
6.6
-32.8
2.8
-7.8
-0.2

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.7
-0.2
0.1
-0.5
-0.2

-0.4
1.3
-0.5
0.5
-1.0
-0.4

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4769.3
554.1
3567.1
450.2
168.5
29.4

Travel per person (km per capita)

10089

11517

13381

15330

16964

-3.0

-25.3

-63.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1861.5
1075.1
524.7
261.8

2177.1
1507.0
396.1
274.0

2682.1
1957.1
425.1
299.9

3185.5
2407.7
446.3
331.5

3611.7
2786.5
467.0
358.3

-2.7
-1.9
-1.1
0.3

-16.3
-17.6
-0.1
1.4

-34.0
-37.8
0.7
3.1

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1

-0.5
-0.7
0.0
0.4

-0.9
-1.3
0.2
0.9

Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

253

242

243

230

221

-0.2

-1.2

-2.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

280091
8685
139578
85770
9564
29449
7044

338258
7514
160719
109568
9423
45553
5481

383061
7435
173180
139909
8377
47959
6202

381059
6318
168756
148898
6211
44311
6565

375731
5288
158477
151824
5811
47602
6729

-8247
-38
-754
-539
-236
-6669
-12

-39414
-387
-5332
-15562
-580
-17381
-172

-46236
-456
-7826
-22856
-492
-14291
-315

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.7
-12.2
-0.2

-9.4
-5.8
-3.1
-9.5
-8.5
-28.2
-2.6

-11.0
-7.9
-4.7
-13.1
-7.8
-23.1
-4.5

38.9
50.8

39.8
53.6

35.7
55.0

29.6
49.0

25.8
44.0

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.7

-2.6
-6.0

-3.1
-0.3

-9.3
-8.8

-9.2
-12.0

Source: PRIMES

117

EU28: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

961237
377116
132112
162820
200702
88487
27003
57710
67
173
3534

963855
227617
172757
208170
243761
111549
33138
71804
1916
679
4012

952907
159032
125846
181136
253537
233356
37312
150558
22327
2917
20242

786124
107383
60927
110029
182144
325641
39714
214149
36631
6172
28974

710315
86333
52865
90155
94915
386047
40785
251158
49251
10263
34589

48607
-17378
-823
-4843
0
71651
2447
47391
6337
608
14868

381
-49259
-1627
-852
-53548
105666
1809
71889
9489
123
22356

-68405
-60079
-528
-1015
-129861
123078
225
86947
9820
-977
27063

5.4
-9.9
-0.6
-2.6
0.0
44.3
7.0
45.9
39.6
26.3
276.6

0.0
-31.4
-2.6
-0.8
-22.7
48.0
4.8
50.5
35.0
2.0
337.8

-8.8
-41.0
-1.0
-1.1
-57.8
46.8
0.6
52.9
24.9
-8.7
359.6

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

776740
85626
550163
523502
26661
137693
3259

868442
107717
555056
528467
26589
203694
1975

1021827
126310
613319
576540
36778
281031
1168

1115572
95683
649922
622694
27228
369095
873

1125515
94417
639475
617793
21682
390582
1041

-97307
-24349
-31895
-31540
-355
-40931
-132

-263644
-57690
-88340
-83166
-5174
-117134
-481

-343287
-111375
-104825
-100437
-4387
-126697
-390

-8.7
-16.2
-4.9
-5.2
-1.0
-12.7
-10.2

-19.1
-37.6
-12.0
-11.8
-16.0
-24.1
-35.5

-23.4
-54.1
-14.1
-14.0
-16.8
-24.5
-27.3

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1704962
467717
647159
297637
200702
3259
88487

1786487
343986
679975
405241
243761
1975
111549

1925953
285342
690384
462167
253537
1168
233356

1848018
203066
657170
479124
182144
873
325641

1779421
180750
635930
480738
94915
1041
386047

-48700
-41727
-32718
-45774
0
-132
71651

-263262
-106949
-89967
-117985
-53548
-481
105666

-411692
-171454
-105353
-127712
-129861
-390
123078

-2.5
-12.8
-4.5
-9.0
0.0
-10.2
44.3

-12.5
-34.5
-12.0
-19.8
-22.7
-35.5
48.0

-18.8
-48.7
-14.2
-21.0
-57.8
-27.3
46.8

27.4
38.0
17.5
11.8
5.2

19.3
38.1
22.7
13.6
6.2

14.8
35.8
24.0
13.2
12.1

11.0
35.6
25.9
9.9
17.6

10.2
35.7
27.0
5.3
21.7

-1.7
-0.8
-1.7
0.3
3.9

-3.7
0.2
-2.4
-1.3
7.2

-5.9
1.9
-0.8
-4.9
9.7

-10.6
-2.1
-6.7
2.5
48.0

-25.2
0.5
-8.3
-11.7
69.1

-36.8
5.6
-2.7
-48.0
80.8

2618738
794718
314786
1509233

3118298
944823
407604
1765871

3596950
982718
695044
1919189

3621459
705992
895398
2020068

3722154
367887
1067646
2286621

-178153
0
102142
-280295

-801064 -1241743
-207553 -503345
134716
128663
-728227 -867061

-4.7
0.0
17.2
-12.7

-18.1
-22.7
17.7
-26.5

-25.0
-57.8
13.7
-27.5

393649
266482
57294
56793
10237
2842
0

424378
235098
46624
118348
21304
3004
0

439589
199534
35653
137012
48653
18737
0

423232
131546
23641
145162
95561
27322
0

429290
121678
23633
124786
126208
32984
0

-40570
-38689
-70
-35250
18579
14859
0

-104300
-103079
-1694
-62037
39989
22521
0

-139610
-165329
2589
-58611
54303
27437
0

-8.4
-16.2
-0.2
-20.5
61.8
383.2

-19.8
-43.9
-6.7
-29.9
72.0
469.1

-24.5
-57.6
12.3
-32.0
75.5
494.6

867592
696742
2
38458
132391

846345
750941
637
19291
75474

852013
751495
27165
17026
56328

835921
725235
48109
11895
50682

819145
706250
59210
10865
42820

-24237
-33640
10172
1553
-2322

-73979
-87570
16511
-2147
-773

-87495
-103776
20915
-4198
-436

-2.8
-4.3
59.9
10.0
-4.0

-8.1
-10.8
52.3
-15.3
-1.5

-9.7
-12.8
54.6
-27.9
-1.0
-16.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

80396

88538

87651

80987

76874

-3914

-12326

-15216

-4.3

-13.2

101612

112692

113453

117743

119708

-324

-407

-420

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1109885

1180941

1322945

1339114

1359554

-32114

-172169

-248967

-2.4

-11.4

-15.5

384219
245670
138549
281949
154275
289441

363322
228215
135107
300854
166339
350426

401141
242029
159112
334358
186370
401076

435772
249700
186072
316905
177964
408472

474354
254092
220263
304853
168257
412089

-106
517
-623
-8960
-14237
-8812

-11540
-5505
-6035
-64904
-52608
-43116

-9475
-4638
-4837
-102847
-81254
-55392

0.0
0.2
-0.4
-2.6
-7.1
-2.1

-2.6
-2.2
-3.1
-17.0
-22.8
-9.5

-2.0
-1.8
-2.1
-25.2
-32.6
-11.8

136126
458929
220792
187680
67875
38483

68674
499706
264489
224587
74443
49041

57892
536437
292158
265968
80183
90308

48343
519098
303953
273146
86562
108013

40292
505336
322211
284281
91785
115649

-874
-25181
-10556
-12900
-4524
21920

-2223
-79749
-46356
-59901
-7468
23528

-3192
-99517
-59809
-93958
-13463
20972

-1.5
-4.5
-3.5
-4.6
-5.3
32.1

-4.4
-13.3
-13.2
-18.0
-7.9
27.8

-7.3
-16.5
-15.7
-24.8
-12.8
22.2

4136.3
1515.0
155.8
796.2
538.0
291.5
839.9

3998.9
1431.1
159.9
650.1
481.6
255.8
1020.5

3922.0
1267.0
119.4
664.6
500.6
261.1
1109.4

3528.4
965.0
92.2
681.3
459.2
248.5
1082.2

3386.0
871.3
77.7
712.1
426.7
234.5
1063.6

-369.9
-250.4
-16.2
-19.7
-18.7
-16.5
-48.4

-966.3
-580.8
-30.1
-54.2
-88.9
-46.7
-165.7

-1290.0
-813.5
-26.7
-39.8
-130.4
-65.9
-213.5

-8.6
-16.5
-12.0
-2.9
-3.6
-5.9
-4.2

-21.5
-37.6
-24.6
-7.4
-16.2
-15.8
-13.3

-27.6
-48.3
-25.6
-5.3
-23.4
-22.0
-16.7

100.0

96.7

94.8

85.3

81.9

-8.9

-23.4

-31.2

-8.6

-21.5

-27.6

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

118

EU28: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

528.913
7511.4
227.0
3.22
4951
2.43
7.82
550.7
44.6

550.981
9217.8
193.8
3.24
5660
2.24
7.26
433.8
47.5

569.992
11370.5
169.4
3.38
6311
2.04
6.88
344.9
51.7

582.152
14408.7
128.3
3.17
6221
1.91
6.06
244.9
58.7

587.546
17374.7
102.4
3.03
6335
1.90
5.76
194.9
61.3

0.000
0.0
-4.3
-0.09
-313
-0.14
-0.65
-32.5
-3.6

0.000
0.0
-18.3
-0.45
-1376
-0.22
-1.66
-67.1
-5.0

0.000
0.0
-23.7
-0.70
-2113
-0.23
-2.20
-74.2
-4.0

0.0
0.0
-2.5
-2.5
-4.7
-6.3
-8.6
-8.6
-6.4

0.0
0.0
-12.5
-12.5
-18.1
-10.3
-21.5
-21.5
-7.9

0.0
0.0
-18.8
-18.8
-25.0
-10.8
-27.6
-27.6
-6.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.8
87.3
84.3
98.7

75.9
79.0
74.1
91.5

64.8
59.6
55.2
73.6

58.2
47.7
43.0
61.6

0.0
-2.1
-5.7
-2.0

-1.7
-12.2
-16.3
-7.8

-1.2
-16.1
-20.8
-8.3

0.0
-2.6
-7.1
-2.1

-2.6
-17.0
-22.8
-9.5

-2.0
-25.2
-32.6
-11.8

0.42
2.22
2.07
1.91
1.89
2.90

0.30
2.04
1.79
1.60
1.54
2.91

0.23
1.92
1.66
1.50
1.40
2.77

0.17
1.85
1.56
1.45
1.40
2.65

0.15
1.79
1.50
1.40
1.39
2.58

-0.04
-0.03
-0.05
-0.02
0.02
-0.06

-0.07
-0.02
-0.08
0.01
0.12
-0.11

-0.08
0.00
-0.05
0.03
0.19
-0.15

-14.0
-1.6
-2.8
-1.0
1.2
-2.1

-27.2
-1.3
-4.9
0.9
9.1
-4.1

-35.5
-0.1
-3.4
2.4
15.7
-5.5

725459
145542
116592
12806
176
450343
122684
210547
143140
80801
14814
0
1040

900425
139130
128145
107782
1661
523708
162956
175797
239383
68854
34898
0
4776

957061
109239
132944
178604
7073
529201
216126
116975
260296
50998
94115
0
6817

1056260
46000
136599
245198
18320
610142
288839
134096
279462
41864
146633
0
8088

11603
0
4211
28362
0
-20971
-5607
-4737
-28226
-4600
13241
0
3352

-81024
-11530
2780
46323
2177
-120774
-19614
-67716
-92502
-247
34457
0
5232

-188866
-62150
780
52943
7737
-188177
-3022
-123407
-134955
4567
59266
0
6352

1.3
0.0
3.4
35.7
0.0
-3.9
-3.3
-2.6
-10.5
-6.3
61.1

-7.8
-9.5
2.1
35.0
44.5
-18.6
-8.3
-36.7
-26.2
-0.5
57.8

-15.2
-57.5
0.6
27.5
73.1
-23.6
-1.0
-47.9
-32.6
12.2
67.8

235.4

330.2

366.0

35.8
49.1
14.8
45.6
30.3
15.3

37.5
45.6
19.2
52.5
27.3
25.2

41.0
43.2
28.2
58.5
19.5
39.0

45.8
40.2
37.3
57.7
9.9
47.8

-1.8
-2.9
1.0
8.1
1.3
6.8

-3.8
-5.4
5.7
14.7
-1.2
15.8

-1.9
-5.3
12.1
13.8
-7.7
21.4

-4.7
-5.9
5.5
18.2
5.0
37.0

-8.4
-11.2
25.5
33.5
-5.6
68.5

-3.9
-11.6
47.8
31.3
-43.7
81.2

5752.9
589.7
4397.4
423.6
304.7
37.4

6895.7
619.8
5299.0
465.7
466.2
45.0

8248.6
631.2
6392.6
516.5
653.1
55.2

9445.6
615.5
7371.2
573.9
822.3
62.7

-1.5
1.3
-1.7
-0.7
-0.4
0.0

-16.3
5.6
-20.4
2.2
-3.5
-0.2

-48.8
9.3
-56.4
8.6
-9.9
-0.4

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.9
-0.3
0.4
-0.5
-0.3

-0.5
1.5
-0.8
1.5
-1.2
-0.7

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

4881.2
618.4
3601.6
456.6
170.7
33.9
9229

10441

12098

14169

16076

-2.7

-28.0

-83.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

1958.3
1159.5
532.6
266.3

2352.3
1668.6
405.9
277.8

2944.1
2201.9
437.0
305.3

3590.4
2785.7
465.2
339.5

4183.8
3319.9
495.3
368.6

-3.3
-2.4
-1.1
0.3

-21.6
-23.5
0.4
1.5

-47.6
-53.6
2.6
3.4

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1

-0.6
-0.8
0.1
0.4

-1.1
-1.6
0.5
0.9

261

255

259

249

241

-0.3

-1.5

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

289441
9634
140266
92511
9807
29928
7295

350426
8758
162549
116941
9691
46814
5673

401076
8868
176706
151003
8629
49402
6470

408472
7856
176690
163487
6469
46982
6988

412089
6465
170616
169067
6269
52413
7259

-8812
-42
-778
-616
-253
-7110
-13

-43116
-472
-5645
-17518
-615
-18675
-192

-55392
-654
-10361
-27653
-472
-15888
-364

-2.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.9
-12.6
-0.2

-9.5
-5.7
-3.1
-9.7
-8.7
-28.4
-2.7

-11.8
-9.2
-5.7
-14.1
-7.0
-23.3
-4.8

38.5
51.8

39.3
52.8

35.1
53.9

28.8
47.6

24.9
42.2

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.7

-2.7
-6.2

-3.2
-0.3

-9.4
-8.9

-9.9
-12.8

Source: PRIMES

119

EU30: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
ktoe

1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline

% Diff. from Baseline

Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1091087
377317
216359
186970
206883
103557
40003
59720
67
173
3595

1200143
228042
337714
253987
250675
129725
48250
74749
1919
703
4103

1184888
159565
257187
253663
260487
253985
52599
155696
22408
2951
20331

1031281
107648
185246
202193
187930
348264
56055
220146
36787
6220
29057

917909
86476
134701
189670
97190
409872
57385
258102
49382
10337
34666

26558
-17378
-1019
-27311
-51
72317
2656
48118
6062
615
14866

-28610
-49321
-1627
-28841
-54904
106083
1767
72780
9058
134
22345

-91510
-60240
-528
-19426
-134572
123256
-86
88192
9062
-962
27050

2.3
-9.8
-0.4
-9.7
0.0
39.8
5.3
44.7
37.1
26.3
272.1

-2.7
-31.4
-0.9
-12.5
-22.6
43.8
3.3
49.4
32.7
2.2
332.9

-9.1
-41.1
-0.4
-9.3
-58.1
43.0
-0.1
51.9
22.5
-8.5
355.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity

695727
86632
490237
458354
31883
117149
1710

684878
108508
412700
384418
28282
163941
-272

846612
126951
503382
464338
39044
216515
-237

925933
96072
545163
516083
29080
285150
-452

970012
94651
576321
553378
22943
299382
-342

-77122
-24522
-33281
-33044
-237
-19187
-132

-240695
-57838
-91513
-86077
-5436
-90863
-481

-329386
-111563
-107936
-103284
-4653
-109496
-390

-8.3
-16.2
-6.2
-6.6
-0.6
-8.1
126.3

-20.6
-37.6
-14.4
-14.3
-15.7
-24.2
-1690.3

-25.3
-54.1
-15.8
-15.7
-16.9
-26.8
-806.5

Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1751588
468937
669257
301245
206883
1710
103557

1839144
345317
702393
411306
250675
-272
129725

1981660
286516
710730
470179
260487
-237
253985

1902243
203720
675438
487343
187930
-452
348264

1829998
181127
653099
489052
97190
-342
409872

-50564
-41900
-34300
-46498
-51
-132
72317

-269305
-107158
-93140
-119705
-54904
-481
106083

-420896
-171803
-108464
-128923
-134572
-390
123256

-2.5
-12.8
-4.6
-9.0
0.0
126.3
39.8

-12.4
-34.5
-12.1
-19.7
-22.6
-1690.3
43.8

-18.7
-48.7
-14.2
-20.9
-58.1
-806.5
43.0

26.8
38.2
17.2
11.8
5.9

18.8
38.2
22.4
13.6
7.1

14.5
35.9
23.7
13.1
12.8

10.7
35.5
25.6
9.9
18.3

9.9
35.7
26.7
5.3
22.4

-1.7
-0.8
-1.7
0.3
3.9

-3.6
0.1
-2.3
-1.3
7.2

-5.8
1.9
-0.7
-5.0
9.7

-10.5
-2.2
-6.7
2.5
43.4

-25.2
0.3
-8.4
-11.7
64.2

-36.9
5.5
-2.7
-48.4
75.9

2794856
818651
465941
1510263

3323905
971593
583374
1768938

3808057
1009630
873767
1924660

3841949
728396
1087278
2026275

3942340
376699
1262337
2303304

-183532
-199
101372
-284705

-820391 -1275298
-212806 -521587
129205
116232
-736789 -869942

-4.6
0.0
13.1
-12.9

-17.6
-22.6
13.5
-26.7

-24.4
-58.1
10.1
-27.4

394358
266510
57394
56913
10698
2842
0

425676
235114
46636
118562
22359
3004
0

441549
199648
35828
137019
50316
18737
0

425166
131546
23705
145162
97432
27322
0

432673
121678
23684
124829
129498
32984
0

-41037
-38770
-54
-36112
19039
14859
0

-105712
-103101
-1699
-62972
39538
22521
0

-140563
-165329
2574
-59222
53977
27437
0

-8.5
-16.3
-0.1
-20.9
60.9
383.2

-19.9
-43.9
-6.7
-30.3
68.3
469.1

-24.5
-57.6
12.2
-32.2
71.5
494.6

884427
713481
2
38512
132432

866713
771184
637
19379
75512

871130
769866
27598
17313
56353

854747
742363
49449
12238
50697

838011
723154
60795
11235
42826

-25821
-35327
10270
1558
-2323

-76360
-90448
17049
-2181
-781

-89820
-106614
21482
-4244
-444

-2.9
-4.4
59.3
9.9
-4.0

-8.2
-10.9
52.6
-15.1
-1.5

-9.7
-12.8
54.6
-27.4
-1.0
-16.3

as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation (1)
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry(1)
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel

83789

92950

91899

84904

80214

-4315

-12896

-15610

-4.5

-13.2

103762

115166

115660

119879

121885

-327

-412

-426

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

1145388

1220510

1365701

1381891

1401522

-33320

-176277

-254250

-2.4

-11.3

-15.4

394004
252212
141792
290806
160718
299860

375356
236839
138517
310280
172911
361964

413656
250943
162713
344501
193984
413560

449312
259213
190099
326846
185257
420475

488352
263656
224697
314323
175225
423621

-149
507
-656
-9076
-14802
-9293

-11721
-5580
-6140
-65801
-54237
-44519

-9677
-4771
-4906
-104234
-83521
-56819

0.0
0.2
-0.4
-2.6
-7.1
-2.2

-2.5
-2.1
-3.1
-16.8
-22.6
-9.6

-1.9
-1.8
-2.1
-24.9
-32.3
-11.8

137278
477192
222317
200044
68198
40359

69933
518412
266915
238509
75229
51512

58854
554787
296062
281099
81278
93621

48958
535774
308207
289328
87834
111789

40661
520850
326922
300544
93576
118968

-956
-26141
-10632
-13326
-4405
22141

-2372
-82534
-46971
-61433
-7662
24695

-3479
-102279
-60335
-96638
-13829
22310

-1.6
-4.5
-3.5
-4.5
-5.1
31.0

-4.6
-13.3
-13.2
-17.5
-8.0
28.4

-7.9
-16.4
-15.6
-24.3
-12.9
23.1

4207.7
1515.7
163.4
807.4
551.3
300.2
869.6

4076.8
1431.7
170.4
663.2
493.5
264.5
1053.4

3999.6
1268.4
127.8
675.7
512.6
270.9
1144.2

3599.0
965.6
100.0
692.8
469.7
257.2
1113.7

3452.1
872.0
84.2
724.3
435.8
242.6
1093.2

-376.8
-252.8
-17.4
-20.4
-19.0
-17.2
-50.0

-980.5
-583.3
-31.4
-56.2
-90.0
-48.5
-171.0

-1303.3
-815.5
-27.5
-41.8
-131.5
-68.0
-219.1

-8.6
-16.6
-12.0
-2.9
-3.6
-6.0
-4.2

-21.4
-37.7
-23.9
-7.5
-16.1
-15.9
-13.3

-27.4
-48.3
-24.6
-5.5
-23.2
-21.9
-16.7

100.0

96.9

95.1

85.5

82.0

-9.0

-23.3

-31.0

-8.6

-21.4

-27.4

(1)

Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

120

EU30: Combined 12% renewables share in 2010 and efficiency case
Comparison to Baseline scenario
1990

2000

2010

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

2020

2030

2010

2020

2030

Difference from Baseline
Main Energy System Indicators
Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEUR'00)
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh/inhabitant)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/MEUR'00)
Import Dependency %
Energy intensity indicators (1990=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2010

2020

2030

% Diff. from Baseline

539.950
7877.3
222.4
3.24
5176
2.40
7.79
534.2
38.9

562.681
9665.6
190.3
3.27
5907
2.22
7.25
421.8
36.4

582.130
11898.8
166.5
3.40
6542
2.02
6.87
336.1
41.7

594.587
15057.8
126.3
3.20
6462
1.89
6.05
239.0
47.3

600.252
18137.4
100.9
3.05
6568
1.89
5.75
190.3
51.4

0.000
0.0
-4.2
-0.09
-315
-0.14
-0.65
-31.7
-2.7

0.000
0.0
-17.9
-0.45
-1380
-0.22
-1.65
-65.1
-5.1

0.000
0.0
-23.2
-0.70
-2125
-0.23
-2.17
-71.9
-4.9

0.0
0.0
-2.5
-2.5
-4.6
-6.3
-8.6
-8.6
-6.1

0.0
0.0
-12.4
-12.4
-17.6
-10.3
-21.4
-21.4
-9.7

0.0
0.0
-18.7
-18.7
-24.4
-10.7
-27.4
-27.4
-8.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

81.7
87.4
84.5
98.4

75.8
79.0
74.5
91.3

64.8
59.7
55.5
73.4

58.1
47.8
43.3
61.4

0.0
-2.1
-5.7
-2.1

-1.7
-12.0
-16.3
-7.8

-1.2
-15.8
-20.7
-8.2

0.0
-2.6
-7.1
-2.2

-2.5
-16.8
-22.6
-9.6

-1.9
-24.9
-32.3
-11.8

0.40
2.21
2.05
1.90
1.87
2.90

0.29
2.03
1.77
1.59
1.53
2.91

0.22
1.91
1.63
1.49
1.40
2.77

0.17
1.83
1.54
1.44
1.39
2.65

0.15
1.78
1.48
1.39
1.38
2.58

-0.04
-0.03
-0.05
-0.02
0.02
-0.06

-0.06
-0.03
-0.08
0.01
0.11
-0.11

-0.08
0.00
-0.06
0.03
0.18
-0.15

-14.1
-1.6
-2.9
-1.0
1.2
-2.0

-27.6
-1.5
-5.1
0.8
8.8
-4.1

-35.8
-0.3
-3.6
2.3
15.3
-5.5

769539
148992
155831
12886
195
451636
123656
210703
143723
80968
15202
0
1040

948444
142580
169704
108213
1705
526242
164368
175952
240860
69031
35623
0
4776

1007797
112689
176315
179658
7184
531951
217890
117053
261694
51099
95290
0
6817

1106916
47100
180413
246188
18552
614663
292553
134096
280702
41920
149858
0
8088

10635
0
4488
27252
0
-21105
-5422
-4675
-28577
-4567
13362
0
3352

-83442
-11530
3001
44640
2177
-121731
-19649
-67654
-93213
-213
34117
0
5232

-194642
-64475
1074
49965
7737
-188944
-2696
-123407
-135632
4562
59180
0
6352

1.1
0.0
2.7
33.7
0.0
-3.9
-3.2
-2.6
-10.6
-6.2
60.0

-7.6
-9.3
1.7
33.1
43.5
-18.6
-8.3
-36.6
-26.3
-0.4
55.8

-15.0
-57.8
0.6
25.5
71.5
-23.5
-0.9
-47.9
-32.6
12.2
65.3

235.4

330.2

366.0

35.7
49.3
14.0
48.9
29.2
19.6

37.5
45.8
18.3
55.1
26.5
28.6

41.0
43.5
26.7
60.9
19.0
41.9

45.8
40.7
35.7
60.1
9.6
50.5

-1.9
-2.8
0.9
7.9
1.2
6.6

-3.8
-5.3
5.3
14.3
-1.2
15.5

-1.8
-5.1
11.4
13.5
-7.7
21.2

-4.8
-5.7
5.3
16.6
4.8
30.3

-8.4
-10.8
24.6
30.8
-6.1
59.0

-3.8
-11.2
46.8
29.0
-44.5
72.0

5925.5
596.9
4530.1
443.8
316.3
38.4

7096.8
628.1
5452.3
488.6
481.6
46.2

8471.5
640.0
6562.0
541.0
671.9
56.5

9680.4
624.7
7549.3
599.3
843.0
64.1

-1.5
1.3
-1.8
-0.6
-0.4
0.0

-16.6
5.6
-20.6
2.1
-3.5
-0.2

-49.3
9.4
-56.9
8.7
-10.0
-0.4

0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.2
0.9
-0.3
0.4
-0.5
-0.3

-0.5
1.5
-0.7
1.5
-1.2
-0.7

Electricity and steam generation
Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Thermal
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Indicators
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
Load factor for gross electric capacities (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Travel per person (km per capita)
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 Euro'00)
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

5032.5
625.6
3720.2
473.5
178.7
34.5
9320

10531

12191

14248

16127

-2.6

-27.9

-82.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

2026.8
1179.2
544.1
303.5

2447.9
1705.6
419.3
323.0

3056.6
2253.2
452.8
350.6

3721.3
2854.7
481.7
384.9

4327.9
3404.8
511.9
411.1

-3.3
-2.5
-1.0
0.3

-22.3
-24.1
0.4
1.5

-49.1
-55.2
2.7
3.5

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1

-0.6
-0.8
0.1
0.4

-1.1
-1.6
0.5
0.9

257

253

257

247

239

-0.3

-1.5

-2.7

-0.1

-0.6

-1.1

299860
9802
145794
94266
10142
31627
8229

361964
8917
168062
119351
10079
49160
6394

413560
9045
182475
154351
9018
51470
7202

420475
8019
181959
167319
6766
48710
7701

423621
6607
175395
173092
6539
54082
7907

-9293
-43
-805
-635
-262
-7532
-15

-44519
-481
-5809
-18003
-642
-19376
-208

-56819
-664
-10515
-28363
-491
-16398
-387

-2.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-2.8
-12.8
-0.2

-9.6
-5.7
-3.1
-9.7
-8.7
-28.5
-2.6

-11.8
-9.1
-5.7
-14.1
-7.0
-23.3
-4.7

38.9
51.4

39.6
52.0

35.3
53.3

28.9
47.2

25.0
41.9

-1.2
-0.2

-3.0
-4.6

-2.7
-6.1

-3.3
-0.3

-9.5
-9.0

-9.9
-12.8

Source: PRIMES

121

(1) EUROSTAT Energy Balances do not take into account non-marketed steam, i.e. steam generated - either in boilers or in CHP plants - and used on site by industrial consumers.
Using statistical information provided by EUROSTAT on CHP, the non-marketed steam generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel input have been estimated for
this study. In the PRIMES model, steam has been attributed to the demand side and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach ensures a better comparability of historical
figures with the projections. However, slight differences exist for certain figures related to steam generation - both in terms of final energy demand and transformation input - in
this report compared to EUROSTAT energy balances.

Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and
Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their
individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly
relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences
should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport,
which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power

Geographical regions
EU15: EU15 Member States
EU25: EU15 Member States + New Member States
NMS: New Member States (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia)
EU27: EU25 Member States + Bulgaria + Romania
EU28: EU27 + Turkey
Europe 30: EU28 + Norway + Switzerland

Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre

122

KO-AC-06-002-EN-N