Governm ent Governm ent Finance/Tax Reform Continue piloting "Business tax to VAT" from transportation and

several modern service industry to telecommunications, railw ay and construction national-w ide Enlarge "property tax" experimenting zone Increase the w eight of government spending on health, social security, environment protection and green energy resource Decrease the w eight of spending on government overseas trip, official cars purchase, operations and hospitality Reduce headcounts in local government by 1/5 Decouple performance evaluation for officials w ith GDP Relax the approvals of NGOs and transitions to registry systems Retrieves back rights to by central government form local government in areas such as law enforcement, social security, education, environment, food safety Governm ent and SOE Redefine the line betw een government and SOEs Modify the current administrative structure for State-ow ned assets (equity ow nership) Ease market entering restrictions New anti-corruption m echanism Local courts w ill be independent from local government, politics and law committee Local courts w ill be directed, funded and named by the Supreme court in Beijing Separate supervision bureaus from the administration (like the FBI in US) Strengthen the role of NPC Increase focus in m ilitary Reform in military system Integration betw een military and civilian through military industry Econom y Reform in Econom y Low er local government debt Adjust the tax system and match governments' autonomy to their fiscal revenue possibly from central, province, city, county, tow nship to central, province and city Start heritage tax and property tax at a proper time to finance local government Financial reform Continue internationalization of RMB relaxation of capital account controls and restrictions to invest in foreign asset Marketize deposit rate and further standardize bank off-balance sheet transactions Develop Internet finance Farm ers Urbanization and Land Reform Break the current "land finance" strategy Free circulation of rural land in a unified market for both urban and rural area Propose new rural land ow nership policy and open up career choices for farmers Incom e distribution and Household registry reform (hukou) Free mobilization of population People's Livelihood Environm ent Clean energy, reduce amount of small particles Aging Population Higher retirement age Reform in Healthcare system Open up second child policy to families w ith one of their parents being a single child

Im plied √

√ √

√ √

√ √

√ √

√ √ √

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

China exports by destination % yoy 3mma

EU US Asia Total

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

66 62 58 54 50 46 42 38
34 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 China PMI New Order Markit

50 40

% yoy 3mma

SEB China construction indicator

30
20 10 0 -10

-20
-30 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

100 80 60 40 20

Vehicle Sales % yoy 3mma

US China

100 80 60 40 20

0 -20 -40
-60

0 -20 -40
-60

09

07

08

10

11

12

13

40 35 30

Industrial Enterprise Inventory %yoy PMI finished goods inv. 3mma (RHS) PMI raw goods inv. 3mma (RHS)

54

52 50
48

25
20 15 10 5

46 44

0
-5 42

11

05

06

07

08

09

10

12

1.5 1.0 0.5

Average house price MoM %

0.0
-0.5

-1.0
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13
2.0

RMB trn 3mma

New Total Financing New Bank Lending

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13
80
Wholesale Pork Prices % yoy CPI % yoy (RHS)

13
12 10 8 6 4 2 0

60
40 20 0 -20

-2 -4
-40 -6

11

12

07

08

09

10

13

6.40
6.35 6.30

USDCNH spot USDCNY fixing USDCNY spot

6.25
6.20 6.15 6.10

6.05 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2

UDSCNY spot spread to fixing %
CNY High Low

Dec-12

Jun-11

Jun-12

Dec-10

Sep-10

Sep-11

Dec-11

Sep-12

Jun-13

6.20

USD vs RMB markets
NDF Onshore CNH

6.15

6.10

6.05 Spot 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M

Sep-13

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

10

11

8

9

2

3

4

5

6

7

100

400

500

600

700

800

100

200

300

100

106

108

102

104

50

60

70

80

90

92

94

96

98

0
Jan-09

40 Jan-11

Jun-11 Aug-11
Dec-11

Oct-11

May-09

CNH deposits in HK (bn)

CNH Bond Index (BoC HK)

China A Share / US S&P, 2010=100

Jul-11

Sep-09

Oct-11
Feb-12
Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12

Jan-10

Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12

May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11

7day repo rate %

Jan-12

Jul-12

Aug-12
Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13

Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

Feb-13
Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13

20d mvavg

Jan-13

Jul-13

Aug-13
Oct-13
Oct-13

Sep-13

FX USD/CNY USD/CNH USD/HKD USD/IDR USD/INR USD/KRW USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/SGD USD/THB USD/TWD EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD/SEK USD/NOK AUD/USD Policy Rates CH lending CH deposit KR IN ID MA PH TH TW US EU SW NO AU

Spot 6.10 6.09 7.75 11,356 61.9 1062 3.17 43.3 1.24 31.3 29.4 1.35 98 8.80 8.05 6.52 5.96 0.95 Current 6.00 3.00 2.50 7.75 7.50 3.00 3.50 2.50 1.88 0.25 0.25 1.00 1.50 2.50

3M 6.06 6.06 7.80 12,000 65.0 1100 3.30 44.0 1.29 32.7 30.2 1.36 100 8.69 7.95 6.38 5.85 0.94 3M 6.00 3.00 2.50 8.00 8.00 3.00 3.50 2.75 1.88 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.50

6M 6.02 6.02 7.80 11,500 64.5 1080 3.25 43.8 1.28 32.5 30.0 1.35 101 8.65 7.80 6.41 5.78 0.93 6M 6.00 3.00 2.50 8.25 8.25 3.00 3.75 2.75 1.88 0.25 0.25 1.00 1.50 2.50

9M 5.98 5.98 7.80 11,200 63.5 1070 3.20 43.5 1.26 32.0 29.7 1.31 104 8.54 7.75 6.51 5.90 0.90 9M 6.25 3.25 2.50 8.25 8.25 3.25 3.75 3.00 1.88 0.25 0.25 1.00 1.50 2.50

12M 5.94 5.94 7.80 11,000 63.0 1060 3.20 43.0 1.24 31.5 29.4 1.27 108 8.40 7.65 6.61 6.02 0.86 12M 6.25 3.25 2.50 8.00 8.00 3.25 3.75 3.00 2.00 0.25 0.25 1.00 1.75 2.50

Real GDP % yoy China India Indonesia Korea Singapore US Euro zone Sweden Norway CPI % yoy China India WPI Indonesia Korea Singapore US Euro zone Sweden Norway

2011 9.3 7.5 6.5 3.6 5.3 1.8 1.6 3.7 1.2 2011 3.3 9.5 5.1 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.0 1.2

2012 7.7 5.4 6.2 2.0 1.3 2.8 -0.6 1.0 3.1 2012 3.5 6.5 4.3 2.2 4.5 2.1 2.5 0.9 0.8

2013 7.7 5.0 5.8 2.8 2.6 1.6 -0.5 0.8 0.9 2013 3.3 5.9 7.2 2.6 3.3 1.6 1.5 0.0 2.2

2014 7.4 5.6 5.3 3.6 4.1 3.3 0.8 2.6 2.4 2014 3.5 6.5 6.4 2.6 3.5 1.6 1.0 1.0 2.1

2015 7.0 6.0 5.5 3.5 4.0 3.7 1.7 3.2 2.1 2015 3.4 6.5 5.5 2.5 3.2 2.2 0.9 2.0 2.3