***COUNTERPLAN

***

1NC: China Counterplan
The People’s Republic of China should [do the plan, insert a modified version of the plan text, do not just say do the plan] It solves – China is a better alternative than the US – solves the aff and avoids the disad. Ellis 6. [Evan, Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., with an emphasis on Latin American security issues, PhD in Political
Science, "The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America: Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region" BoozAllen -- March 3 -- www6.miami.edu/hemispheric-policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf]
Aside from the intangible political dimension, China also represents

a real alternative ¶ market for primary product exports, and to some degree, an alternative source of ¶ investment capital. China’s willingness to invest in the Bolivian hydrocarbon sector,82¶ for example, provides the new government of Evo Morales with another way of ¶ obtaining needed resources and technical expertise without having to make ¶ concessions to the 26 oil companies currently operating in the country. Chinese ¶ engagement with Bolivia thus gives Morales more latitude to proceed with the ¶ nationalization of that nation’s hydrocarbon
sector. Similarly, the prospect of China as ¶ an alternative market for Latin American commodity exports has also introduced a new ¶ dimension to the question of trade integration with the United States, such as the Free ¶ Trade Area of the Americas.

[insert specific solvency as needed]

--- General Solvency ---

General Say Yes
Latin America says yes – China is massively boosting engagement now. Wang 5-6. [Xiaoxia, economic observer, "In America's Backyard: China's rising influence in Latin America" World Crunch -www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-tradeeconomy-investments-energy/c9s11647/] IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD : CHINA'S

RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA¶ China is busy in America's

backyard.¶ Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year's Boao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several heads of state from the region.¶ Since 2011, China has overtaken the Netherlands to become Latin America’s second biggest investor behind the United States. China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements with Latin American countries in such fields as finance, resources and energy.¶ According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to a total of $261.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%.

approaches. [Stephen. . Senior Policy Analyst. protecting the environment.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america] Evasion of American-style bottleneck diplo-macy . American commitments also depend on legislative approval and can be reversed if the mood in the U.[10] not assist-ing current or former terrorists.S. China's flexibility counters more rigid U.-provided equipment for any other than its stated purpose. Obtaining any kind of assistance from the United States requires compliance on a battery of restrictions. and not using U. "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America" Heritage Foundation -October 24 -. Congress shifts . Johnson 5.www.S. military personnel to the International Criminal Court (ICC).heritage. including observing human rights. prom-ising not to send U.S.US Aid Bad China aid more flexible – US aid requires coercive restrictions.S.

“For too long. China. “It is high time for the U.S. 6/28. U..] Latin America Increases Relations With China: What Does That Mean For The US? http://www. Still. Gallagher and Ben-Ami agree that the U. adopt intellectual property provisions that give preferences to U. on the other hand. just telling Latin America what it needs.S.China > US Latin America says yes to the counterplan – comparatively prefer China over the US. “China makes sure that its policy is not based on conditionalities.in Latin America or anywhere else. which offers access to the U. “Latin America is very sensitive to any notions of conditionality due to painful past experiences with the IMF and the World Bank.” Gallagher wrote for The Globalist. a professor of international relations at Boston University. as do imports (87 percent in the same period).” Gallagher said. Perhaps even more crucial are America's cultural and historical ties to the region. and allow U.S. and America continues to be the biggest foreign investor in the area.com/reporters/patricia-rey-mallen Beyond the lack of understanding with its former main trade partner. it might be too late.” Gallagher observed. with no previous conditions and very few strings attached. Export-Import Bank combined since 2003. it is almost inconceivable that America could lose its unique status in the region to China. takes a different stance. exports to Latin America continue to rise (by 94 percent over the past six years). market on three conditions: deregulate financial markets. [Covers Latin America for the International Business Timecovers Latin America for the International Business Times. He argues that China's advancement in the region does not automatically equate with American loss of preeminence. “Very soon. “Given the extraordinary growth of Latinos’ influence in the U.” Gallagher argued that the U. Mallén.S. government to undertake a true rethink of its economic policy toward Latin America. firms. influence -.S. “Compare that to China’s approach: It offers Latin America what it wants. vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace and former Israeli foreign minister. has been providing more financing to Latin America than the World Bank.ibtimes.” he added. says China speaks to the region’s newfound confidence.S.” Gallagher said the U. Ben-Ami said. needs to step up.” Ben-Ami said. Shlomo Ben-Ami.S. “China is offering attractive deals to Latin American economies while the United States continues to lecture and dictate. . should awake from its past slumber and stop taking Latin America for granted.S. why is Latin America so smitten with China? Kevin Gallagher.S. the United States has relied on a rather imperial mechanism. the Inter-American Development Bank and the U.’ biggest offer to Latin America is the Trans-Pacific Partnership. firms to sue governments for violating any of its conditions. to compete with new influences in a part of the world that was until “Gone are the days when military muscle and the politics of subversion could secure U.” recently widely considered America’s domain.S.S.” he said. both economically and diplomatically.

It has ¶ invested the time of its top leaders and the ¶ resources of its government. the background conditions are compatible because ¶ there are no fundamental conflicts of interest or historical animosities between China and ¶ Latin America. Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -. China has developed an impressive ¶ systematic long-term strategy to engage ¶ with Latin American countries. broadbased and high-quality cooperation is in alignment with the trend of the times and the ¶ development needs of the two sides. IDB membership means China solves.”32 Consequently. "China's Relations With Latin America: Shared Gains.kennesaw.November -digitalcommons.34 Latin America loves Chinese engagement Dominguez 6. ¶ pointed out that “China is the largest developing country.S. First.” and power ¶ monopolies by a few developed countries. China’s Ambassador to the United States. Taiwan. power ¶ but shies away from embracing that hope.edu/cgi/viewcontent.”26 Joining the IDB.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] At a signature ceremony in Washington for China’s accession into the Inter. “now ¶ have records that speak for themselves. [Dr. It has formulated symbolically productive discourses ¶ to characterize its relations with Latin ¶ American countries.” “imperialism. For instance. Zhou Wenzhong.Vol 1 Issue 1 -. "China rising in Latin America: More opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -. ¶ It acknowledges possible future difficulties but confidently asserts its belief that all ¶ key actors will perceive China’s role in Latin ¶ America to be non-threatening and peaceful.June -www.November -digitalcommons. and Latin America is the most ¶ important developing region in the world. "China rising in Latin America: More opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -.pdf] In short. Bringing these two together for high-level. Antonio. . Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology. both sides openly oppose “hegemonism. Second. strengthen policy coordination with member countries ¶ both in and . . and to assess the quality of relations between countries across ¶ time and signal the scope of likely trends. Third.edu/cgi/viewcontent. ¶ China and Latin America both value diversification in international economic and political ¶ relations. the two regions have largely complementary economies. who “most ¶ pointedly” ignored the World Bank and the IMF-championed Washington Consensus.Vol 1 Issue 1 -. Ramo argues that China and India. It ¶ has a nuanced understanding of the interest in some quarters in Latin America that ¶ China should help to balance U.thedialogue. the so-called the “Beijing ¶ Consensus” has been attracting attention in Latin America because of “China’s distinctive ¶ development model.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] The Beijing Consensus has evolved to describe a plethora of alternative plans for economic ¶ development in the underdeveloped world.”33¶ Chinese academics argue that there are three signs that likely predict a convergence ¶ between China and Latin America. *Jorge.China Aid Good China solves Latin American economic engagement better – Laundry list. Hsiang 9. Hsiang 9. Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology. [which] posits far more state intervention in the economy and a greater concern with political stability and strong government to guide the development ¶ process. China will have additional ¶ incentive to fulfill its obligations.American ¶ Development Bank (IDB).org/PublicationFiles/china. [Dr. . Taiwan. Antonio.kennesaw. Professor @ Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.

outside the region. And of course. and promote bilateral cooperation ¶ in trade financing and infrastructure construction and other areas of mutual concern so as to ¶ carry forward poverty reduction and socioeconomic development in Latin America and the ¶ Caribbean. engage in IDB’s activities. . it paves the way for Chinese companies to take part in ¶ infrastructure projects in Latin America.

with 500 Chinese laborers brought in to do the work. “The Expanding Chinese Footprint in Latin Americaz”. with 600 Chinese workers brought in to execute the project. 20 Other recent examples include the construction of a multiuse sports stadium in Grenada following that nation’s diplomatic switch in 2004. Kitts. a $12 million stadium in St.Aid = Gift China can do the aff as a gift – solves diplomatic ties Eliis 12(Evan Ellis.org downloads asievisions49eellis. the PRC chose a Chinese company to do the work.ifri. February 2012. www. professor of national security studies. following that nation’s diplomatic recognition of the PRC on June 1.21 and construction of the National Academy of Performing Arts and the Prime Minister’s residence in Trinidad by Shanghai Construction of China. 2007. involving the use of 500 Chinese construction workers. The most recent major example was the construction of the $89 million sport stadium in Costa Rica.D.22 . a $21 million stadium in Antigua.pdf) The second category of construction projects increasing the presence of Chinese companies and workers in the region are “gifts” by the Chinese government to Latin American countries in conjunction with a change in diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. Institut français des relations internationales. Ph. in political science. Because the stadium was a gift from the Chinese government.

much of it in dollars. Indonesia and Belarus. Brazil bureau chief. "Deals help China expand sway in Latin America" New York Times -. including Argentina.) But smaller economies in the region. out of the country last year. the Federal Reserve made its own currency arrangements with central banks around the world. The deal follows similar ones China has struck with countries like South Korea. are pushing up against their limits. would allow Argentina reliable access to Chinese currency to help pay for imports from China. but an official at Argentina’s central bank said it would allow Argentina to avoid using scarce dollars for all its international transactions. journalist. Alexei.¶ Dante Sica.¶ As the financial crisis began to whipsaw international markets last year. The takeover of billions of dollars in private pension funds. .html?_r=0] Meanwhile. the lead economist at Abeceb.”¶ China is also seizing opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders over which the United States holds some sway. It may also help lead the way to China’s currency to eventually be used as an alternate reserve currency. were left out of those agreements.www.¶ One of China’s new deals in Latin America. said the Chinese overtures in the region were made possible by the “lack of attention that the United States showed to Latin America during the entire Bush administration.nytimes. a consulting firm in Buenos Aires. like the Inter-American Development Bank. (Brazil has opted not to tap it for now.April 15 -. allocating $30 billion each to Brazil and Mexico. led Argentines to pull the equivalent of nearly $23 billion. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. [Simon. which has been trying to dispel doubts about its ability to meet its international debt payments.Currency Loans Solve LA Econ China currency loans solve Latin American financial woes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan. China is rapidly increasing its lending in Latin America as it pursues not only longterm access to commodities like soybeans and iron ore. among other moves. but also an alternative to investing in United States Treasury notes. the $10 billion arrangement with Argentina.¶ Details of the Chinese deal with Argentina are still being ironed out.

Menendez 13. the China Development Bank has made substantive loans to develop roads. a strategic consulting firm providing political and economic analysis "The East is rising. railroads and other infrastructure that will secure it access to continuing flows of raw materials. economist and a Principal at Cordoba Group International.thecommentator. the China Development Bank (CDB) has displaced the World Bank as the world’s largest development bank. in Latin America" The Commentator -. China tied the money to contracts with Chinese firms. lending billions around the world in pursuit of China’s interests.¶ In terms of infrastructure development. According to research conducted by the Financial Times.May 10 -www.” As the largest single overseas investor in Venezuela. [Fernando.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america] Forsythe and Sanderson argue that China’s policy of paying generous amounts of cash for its raw materials and propping up local autocrats gives a whole new meaning to the term “too big to fail. Its ability to lend long-term and the large amounts involved makes it an important and different player .China Solves Financing China solves alternative financing needs in Latin America. ports. .¶ China is also fast becoming an alternative source of development funding.

and will it be used effectively for the intended purposes? Is China's increased investment in Ecuador. A number of twists and turns lie ahead. president of Regester Larkin Energy.nytimes. Sherr 11.www. ¶ In recent weeks. "Deals help China expand sway in Latin America" New York Times -. Brazil bureau chief. Additionally. provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in Chinese currency and lend Brazil’s national oil company $10 billion. These loan agreements are important to China and they have a solid track record of meeting their obligations-even when the recipient countries may not meet theirs due to project delays and cost overruns. China has benefited on many fronts from its relationship with the region. Are China's big loans going to be good deals for the Latin American countries? Will the money come through. lend Ecuador at least $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant. exporting more than it imports while also nailing down long-term commodity resources. China has become a major force with the $16. there is growing regional backlash against Chinese imports in Brazil. if Chinese shale gas addresses more of their energy needs. [Kirk. Chinese economic engagement solves Latin American energy development. These investments and others have made China the biggest credit source for the two governments. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. In Venezuela. it also is leveraging the goodwill synergies of these loans to support large equity investments in oil. often on terms that other financial institutions would spurn. president of Regester Larkin Energy: "China is not just lending to the region in return for oil. China imported nearly 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from South and Central America in 2010. compared to only 8. The deals largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oil for years to come .cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2710] Q: China recently announced several loans worth billions of dollars to Ecuador and Venezuela-to be paid back largely in the form of oil-for public works.thedialogue. Energy security is a major issue for Beijing. energy and infrastructure projects.3 billion joint venture between PDVSA and China National Petroleum Corp. especially. to develop the Junin-4 block of the Orinoco oil belt. however.html?_r=0] As Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships in Latin America. Chinese national oil companies have extended their presence across the Latin America region.Solves Energy Generally China engagement solves Latin American energy investment. their interest in the region may wane over time.July 22 -. Venezuela and Cuba. China has been negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to $12 billion. According to the BP Statistical Review." . journalist. gas and electric companies.www. offering countries across the region large amounts of money while they struggle with sharply slowing economies. Over this same period. [Simon. gaining valuable operating experience .April 15 -. Alexei. Venezuela and other countries in the region playing out as expected several years ago? What unexpected or new economic and political twists are on the horizon resulting from evolving China-Latin America relations? ¶ ¶ A: Kirk Sherr.org/page. On the other hand. China is stepping in vigorously .com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan. for China's engagement of the region. a plunge in commodity prices and restricted access to credit. Already. China faces significant regional risk from implications of possible regime change in its allies.000 bpd in 2001. "How is China changing Latin America's Energy Sector" Inter-American Dialogue -. analysts have pointed out. and Latin American sourcing is merely one part of a complex solution.

--.Cuba --- .

banking. delivered at the Tarará President Hu’s two main speeches in Cuba during his 2004 and 2008 visits focused on human capital development. The recruitment of Chinese technicians to live in Cuba to supervise and train the local workforce in 37 Chinese investment projects. Cabrisas said the year 2012 has seen significant advances in bilateral ties especially in the field of economy and trade. http://journals. “Economies are like bicycles. in: Journal of Current Chinese Affairs. 12. Facilitated by the refurbishment of Cuba’s ports with Chinese equipment.Solves Cuba Engagement Cuba says yes.htm] Top officials from Cuba and China reaffirmed here Wednesday their commitment to strengthening bilateral economic and trade ties. Cuban leader Raul Castro visited China in July.xinhuanet. 1.news. His latter speech."¶ He believed the meeting "will perfect bilateral cooperation of mutual benefit and deepen our economic and trade relations. and has repeatedly advocated it to Cuban officials ever since Fidel Castro’s 1995 meeting with Premier Li Peng in Beijing (Cheng 2007. Jiang 2009). the University of Information Science (UCI). trade ties" September 27 -. As Robert B. 41. 155-179.com/english/china/201209/27/c_131876461.¶ He also praised the efforts made by related government agencies of both countries to formulate a basic strategy for consolidating and developing bilateral ties in the medium and long term. vice president of Cuba's Council of Ministers. Student City. The faster they move. GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.de/giga/jcca/article/viewFile/498/496] In his former speech.uni-hamburg. The Chinese government adopted this strategy of gradual liberalisation at home in the early 1980s. After 15 years of hearing their advice. computer technology. during which the two countries signed several important agreements on health care.¶ Chen said that during the meeting co-chaired by him and Ricardo Cabrisas. China solves Aff. the better they maintain their balance unaided” (Reich 1982).sub. Cuba’s reformers – led by Raúl Castro . Adrian H. Hu noted that thousands of the computers on campus came at subsidised prices from China. China to strengthen economic. (Convenor of international relations at the University of Sydney China Studies Centre.000 students to Cuba to study medicine. Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming stressed the importance of developing and improving bilateral cooperation and promoting business ties between the two sides as some European countries are struggling with their debt crises. State-tostate cooperation with China has helped Cuba to establish the basic infrastructure it needs for economic growth. confirmed China’s intention to send 5. Reich famously wrote three decades ago.¶ At the 25th Session of the China-Cuba Intergovernmental Commission. with the express purpose of advancing Cuba’s IT capacities."¶ Chen added that the Sino-Cuban ties and friendship are at their best time in history. tourism and Spanish. The integration of infrastructure upgrading with IT and electronics training has laid the foundation for a coordinated industrial chain that supports domestic manufacturing along with the shipment of goods to markets around Cuba and potentially to neighbouring Latin American and Caribbean countries. He is a co-editor of China Engages Latin America: Tracing the Trajectory) Global Governance and the Future of Cuba. the two sides "discussed and reached broad consensus on issues of mutual concern.¶ For his part. proposed during the 2008 visit. will advance this goal if the projects are implemented. ["Cuba. The challenge now facing the island is to employ this platform to support private initiative and harness the productive potentials of the market. White Rose East Asia Centre at the Universities of Leeds and Sheffield and Hamburg University Press. Xinhua 12. this strategy could significantly advance both countries’ regional influence (Frank 2006).has experience with Cuban Infrastructure Hearn. delivered at Cuba’s leading IT training facility. Institute of Asian Studies ¶ cooperation with the National Institute of Chinese Studies. agriculture and trade tariffs.

which took place in April 2011. “concentrated” (República de Cuba 2011: 5. The Economic and Social Policy Guidelines approved by the congress declared that ownership of private property. Cuba’s sixth Communist Party Congress. . 11). showed a growing acceptance of the market as a catalyst for national development. is now considered acceptable on the condition that it is not The critical concern has therefore become how the state might leverage its considerable institutional capacities to optimise and guide economic performance.– are now listening. long considered antithetical to socialism.

a former envoy of the Central Committee of the CCP. which according to the United States Geological Survey contain 5. If our products prove popular and useful then we assist by setting up factories. Mao Xianglin. As Chinese enterprises become increasingly comfortable with the rules of market exchange. televisions. In addition to distributing the resulting televisions and refrigerators to the population through neighbourhood committees. January 7 2012. Hu offered extensions on the repayment of previous loans.uni-hamburg. cochair of the Latin American Studies Association. We’re trying to help Cuba to incrementally upgrade its technical ability. computers. China’s interest in developing Cuban manufacturing capacities and markets extends back to collapse of the Soviet Union. Visiting Cuba for a second time in November 2008. and refrigerators to Cuba. Following an initial shipment of 500. The success of the initiative led to a similar export-to-production scheme for electric fans.5 million USD and a loan of 200 million USD to modernise local telecommunications with Chinese products. air conditioners. Bilateral projects have targeted the upgrading of Cuban manufacturing. Hutchinson-Jafar 2011. manufacturing and infrastructure Hearn 12(Adrian H. Australian Research Council fellow at the University of Sydney. Exploration of the field commenced in early 2012 despite US security and environmental concerns (COHA 2011. in November 2009 the Cuban Ministry of Information and Communication’s Grupo de la Electrónica entered into a joint venture with Chinese electronics giant Haier to domestically manufacture computer components and assemble household consumer goods (Cubaencuentro 2009).Solves Cuba Oil China can finance modernization of Cuba’s oil industry.5 million barrels of crude oil and 9. and more recently the controlled introduction of private entrepreneurship. visited Cuba in 1997 to assist in the establishment of a bicycle factory with Chinese capital and technical expertise. German Institute of Global and Area Studies. the pace of change has quickened.000 barrels per day and the construction of a liquefied natural gas plant on the same site.de/giga/jcca/article/viewFile/498/496) State-to-state cooperation has focused on building critical infrastructure as a basis for Cuban economic growth.sub. mobile phones. This promise has materialised in a facility next to Havana’s Lenin Park. because what we’re doing is broader than that. and a 150 million USD credit to buy Chinese televisions (Erikson and Minson 2006: 14). However. the gradual opening of markets. The complex is expected to process reserves from untapped fields off Cuba’s north coast. the coordination of industrial sectors. and other Chinese-made products. Hearn. and a credit line of 70 million USD for health infrastructure (Granma 2008: 5).8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. During a 2001 visit to Cuba. http://journals. *…+ Using Chinese expertise. Cuba’s slow implementation of reforms has generated bilateral tensions. Indicating the success of the scheme. a donation of 8 million USD for hurricane relief.000 Chinese bicycles to Cuba in the early 1990s. . Raúl Castro has opened new opportunities for Chinese exporters to test the Cuban market by lifting restrictions on the sale of DVD players. Journal of Current Chinese Affairs. “China. since Raúl Castro replaced his brother as Cuba’s president. Mao described this as an “incremental” strategy that Chinese businesses have since employed across a range of sectors in Cuba: I would hesitate to say that our Cuban manufacturing operations are entirely commercial. Global Governance and the Future of Cuba”. Following the successful sale of Chinese washing machines. Piñón 2011: 24). Cuba could come to produce electronic goods for sale to Latin America (Mao 2007). and China’s domestic experience with economic reform has assumed growing relevance for the island. The visit also cleared the way for the CNPC to invest 6 billion USD in both the expansion of an oil refinery in Cienfuegos to produce 150. where television sets and other light consumer products are assembled. Hu Jintao signed 16 accords in 2004 pledging Chinese support for the domestic manufacture of these and other goods. Chinese President Jiang Zemin offered an interest-free credit line of 6. Chinese technical and financial assistance to Cuba demonstrates the sincerity of these words.

To this end. [Paul. Cuba exports about 400. But it may also represent a path to normalized relations if China can help Cuba’s economy reform such that it. build national capital and promote domestic consumption. knowing from its own experience over the past three decades that private sector entrepreneurial activity can stimulate foreign investment. with bilateral trade now standing at around $2 billion. a state holding company consisting of 13 provincial sugar companies that operate 56 sugar mills and 850 sugarcane farms. and Cuba is China’s largest trading partner in the Caribbean. inseparable from the Caribbean’s natural resources and those of Latin America more broadly.S. Azcuba signed foreign investment agreements with companies from Brazil and Britain in 2012 to modernize harvesting equipment and build biomass energy plants. Beijing has demonstrated that it will conduct business with left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Ecuador as readily as with right-leaning governments like Chile and Colombia. begun restructuring its ailing sugar industry by abolishing the sugar ministry and creating Azcuba. no longer justifies the continuation of a decades-old U. It has also undertaken significant technology transfers and entered into joint ventures in farming. The Sino-Cuban economic fraternity.diplomaticourier.” . Nash 13. It has.¶ Cuba has started the reform process focussed on its biggest export industries.Solves Cuba Economic Reform/Solves Embargo Chinese led economic reforms solve the Cuban economy – results in the removal of the embargo. trade embargo on the basis that Cuba’s economy is “dominated or controlled by international communism. Beijing wants to help Cuba push through market-oriented economic reforms.com/news/regions/brics/1465-how-the-chinese-are-helping-to-transform-cuba-again] China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela. more than half the amount it produces for domestic consumption. from Beijing’s viewpoint. for example. and tourism. like Vietnam’s. China has granted Cuba numerous long-term low or interestfree loans to support development and maintain financial and social stability through the reform process. "How the Chinese are Helping to Transform Cuba. is largely pragmatic rather than idealistic.www. The Sino-Cuban partnership may represent a lost opportunity for the United States in promoting liberal democracy in the Western Hemisphere. Again" Diplomatic Courier -.May 24 -. of course.000 tonnes of sugar annually to China. ¶ China’s interest in Cuba is. Contributing Editor and China analyst. light industry.

or compete ¶ with each other. [Dr. political trust. The significance of such exchanges does not lie in their ¶ capacity to generate short-term commerce. ¶ This is facilitated by direct collaboration between the Cuban and Chinese ¶ governments.Solves Resource Affs China solves resource engagement better.pdf] China often pays for developing country natural resources with trade credits.Florida International University -. infrastructure upgrading. undercut. have been accomplished ¶ in close collaboration with the Cuban state.edu/research/commissioned-reports/cuba-china-hearn. Even China’s more strictly commercial goals in Cuba. "Cuba and China: Lessons and Opportunities for the United States" The Cuban Research Institute . and economic growth over the long term. the University of Sydney. whose state-owned enterprises do not duplicate.fiu. Hearn 9. research fellow at the School of Social and Political Sciences. . such as filling ¶ Cuban homes and stores with Chinese electronic appliances.June -cri. ¶ construction equipment. and technical training rather than ¶ hard currency (Robles 2005). Adrian. but rather in the more encompassing goal ¶ of building stable alliances.

--.Mexico --- .

deputy professor of history at Peking University.” said Dong Jingsheng. Mexico was the last country to sign a bilateral deal with China in 2001 to pave the latter’s way into the World Trade Organization. Enrique Pena Nieto.” Pena Nieto said in an exclusive interview with Caixin on April 6.Mexico Says Yes Mexico says yes – Nieto wants Chinese engagement.”¶ Pena Nieto’s formula to beef up relations is to let Mexico learn from China’s experience in economic growth. growth in recent years. wants to redefine bilateral relations with China. Both are major suppliers of manufactured goods. and China’s robust development means Mexico can benefit from a strong bilateral ties. rather than compete. and to also confirm very clearly.¶ “(Pena Nieto) choosing to emphasize Sino-Mexican relations at this particular moment might be triggered by sluggish U.¶ “China has set up strategic relationship with many Latin American countries.marketwatch. the 47-year-old Pena Nieto met with the head of China’s new leadership. Market Watch 13.¶ Sino-Mexican economic relations have long been tense.¶ In a trip to the southern province of Hainan in early April. value-added chain. announced the establishment of a government agency to handle trade with China. and to have the two countries’ products integrate in a global.com/story/mexico-buildingbridges-with-china-2013-04-28] Mexico’s new president. and repeatedly sent the message that the two economies can complement each other.¶ “I’ve come to reaffirm. but economic ties with Mexico have long been one of the worst because both are competing for the North American market. the interest Mexico has to expand its relationship with China. four months after he took office. especially to the United States. . ["Mexico building bridges with China" April 28 -.¶ Mexico’s trade deficit with China is the largest among its trade partners. and it has launched several WTO complaints against Chinese exports.S.www. Xi Jinping.

mining. Carlos de Icaza." said Hugo Beteta. director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. tourism. "China's President wants to open the floodgates of trade with Mexico" June 2 -latino.¶ While China is looking to assure supplies of raw materials.S. especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the Dalai Lama in 2011. and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more. because its trade deficit with China is exploding.¶ During the April talks.com/2013/06/07/mexico-and-china-leave-behind-mistrust-and-agree-on-strategic-partnership Xi pointed out that China and Mexico have just agreed to upgrade their bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. something China's Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations. where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries. Xi said that the two countries should foster new growth points for bilateral investment in such areas as energy.mercopress.¶ Relations with Mexico had been chilly in the past. striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina. infrastructure and high-tech industry. and to strengthen China-Mexico economic and trade cooperation from a strategic perspective." Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations.¶ That's key for Mexico. has been aggressive so far about changing that. just two months into Xi's presidency. FNL 13. Addressing the same conference. [Fox News Latino.¶ U."¶ President Enrique Pena Nieto. China is. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up. http://en. one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop¶ On Tuesday President Xi Jinping begins a three-day visit to the region just as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment. Mexico is looking to diversify its trade and investment. and the upgrade of bilateral . “The two sides should work in the spirit of mutual respect and mutual benefit to optimize their trade structure. he said.¶ China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years." De Icaza said. far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation. Mexico arrived to stay.¶ And now the Asian power house is reaching out to Mexico.foxnews. resolve their differences through amicable negotiations and seek trade balance in an active manner”."¶ De Icaza said the countries hope to sign at least a dozen agreements in the fields of trade. and I think it has economic power. Mexico says yes to China.¶ "In the new global geopolitical and economic map.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/] Over the last few years.bilateral relations opening up investment MERCOPRESS 6/7. and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica. The Chinese president urged both sides to see each other as partners and an important opportunity for development. which creates more favourable conditions and opens a vaster space for the development of trade and economic cooperation. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil. told The Associated Press. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. covering an area of influence which includes the South Atlantic and insular territories. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China. the world's second "has to understand and strengthen relations with a nation that has such great strategic value."¶ The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. ¶ China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports. Xi started in Trinidad and Tobago. while tapping the full potential of their cooperation in traditional fields. and the two new presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. according to the International Monetary Fund. science and technology during Xi's visit. China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America. Analysts say that could mean oil. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto said China is an important partner for Mexico. which have long been dominated by its superpower neighbor to the north. [MercoPress is an independent news agency which focuses on delivering news related to Mercosur-member countries.] Mexico and China leave behind mistrust and agree on strategic partnership. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006. energy.Solves Mexico Engagement Cp solves – new era in relations means Mexico says yes. who took office in December. which Mexico has and China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class.¶ "Access to strategic raw materials is key to understanding the dynamic of relations with China.

He said the two countries should explore new areas and new means of cooperation so as to promote a more balanced growth of bilateral trade and achieve win-win results. . he pledged. Mexico is willing to create favourable conditions to attract more Chinese investment.ties to comprehensive strategic partnership has opened broad prospects for economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

and Mexico has massive reserves of oil and gas. "MEXICO AND CHINA: AN EXPANDING ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP" Before You Do Business -.¶ “Mexico can be a gateway for China to enter North America.¶ China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports.¶ And now the Asian power house is reaching out to Mexico. the general perception has been that the country’s main trading partners and investors have been the United States and Japan. expertise in high-profile corporate law with practice strong focus on foreign investment. energy. the Mexican head of state mentioned that friendship and cultural understanding are key. While their products may still not get into the U. he spoke of what China can offer Mexico in return. an excellent model on the issue ” he said. "China's President wants to open the floodgates of trade with Mexico" June 2 -latino. China’s top news service.¶ In order for an economic partnership to be long-lasting and beneficial for both sides. in a written interview with Xinhua. the size of its market and its high demand for goods. a market Chinese telecoms have been wanting to crack for quite a long time. two telecoms companies who have been effectively shut out of the American telecom market. “We have much to learn from its successful history in railway infrastructure. one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop¶ On Tuesday President Xi Jinping begins a three-day visit to the region just as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment. while Mexico can increase the awareness of Mexican culture in China by the means of Spanish-language courses and showing Chinese people “the opportunities that Mexico can offer them”. China’s economic dynamism. FNL 13. the president mentioned that when it comes to trains: “China is.” China solves Mexican oil – they’ll say yes.¶ President Peña Nieto continued. including infrastructure and trade. China should and can be a “strategic partner” to the Latin American country.¶ "Access to strategic raw materials is key to . It can so be a point of access to several countries in Central America and the Caribbean. the world’s richest market. China represents an opportunity to increase its productive investment. The expansion of China’s Confucius Institute in the Spanish-speaking country would be a very effective way for Mexicans to learn about China’s traditions and learn Mandarin.” he said.com/archives/787] While Mexico’s economy has been growing steadily since the implementation of NAFTA and various other free trade agreements with dozens of other countries. Mexico’s partnership with manufacturing and economic powerhouse China has been gaining steam over the past few years and is showing positive signs of continued and expanding growth. However. which Mexico has and China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class. the Mexican president stated how an economic partnership would be beneficial to both countries in the energy and infrastructure industries . corporate lawyer in Mexico. turn China into an attractive market for Mexico. Remarkable opportunities exist in many sectors. both ZTE and Huawei could become involved in the potentially lucrative Mexican telecom sector.Solves Mexico Energy (General) China solves Mexico energy investment – key model. striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina. spoke of his pledge to increase ties with China in a way that both countries can enjoy a win-win situation.¶ “For Mexico. Analysts say that could mean oil. without doubt.¶ Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto. he said.¶ Most importantly however. This could very well be of high interest to Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE. [Fox News Latino.” said Peña Nieto.foxnews. stressing the things that Chinese and Mexican people have in common such as an ancient culture and economic exchanges. [Alberto.May 1 -beforeyoudobusiness. which Chinese companies could very well provide if reforms to Mexico’s energy sector go through. China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America. After mentioning the above points of what Mexico can offer China. the country’s oil industry needs an overall upgrade. on the evening before his visit to China.S. market.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/] Over the last few years. where reforms have recently been passed to allow foreign investment. Esenaro 13.¶ Furthermore. China is a country that imports much of its energy. and multiply and diversify its export capacity.

understanding the dynamic of relations with China," said Hugo Beteta, director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil."¶ The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. Xi started in Trinidad and
Tobago, where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries, and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica.¶ China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years, and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China.¶ U.S. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund.¶

Relations with Mexico had been chilly in the past, especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the
Dalai Lama in 2011, something China's Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations."¶ President Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office in December, has

been aggressive so far about changing that, and the two new presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up, just two months into Xi's presidency.¶ During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press.¶ That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation.¶ While China is
looking to assure supplies of raw materials, Mexico is looking to diversify its trade and investment, which have long been dominated by its superpower neighbor to the north.¶ "In the new global geopolitical and economic map, China is, and I think it has

arrived to stay, the world's second economic power," De Icaza said. Mexico "has to understand and strengthen relations with a nation that has such great strategic value."¶ De Icaza said the countries hope to sign at least a dozen agreements in the fields of trade, energy, tourism, science and technology during Xi's visit.¶ Mexican exports to China came to a bit over $5.7 billion in 2012, while its imports from that
country stood at almost $57 billion, according to statistics from Mexico's Economy Department. Cell phones, video games and parts for electronics factories have been pouring into Mexico, which sends China minerals such as copper and lead.¶ Overall trade between China and Latin America has expanded quickly over the past decade and the continent now imports more from China than it does from the European Union, according to the U.N. economic agency for the region.¶ Many countries balance those imports by sending China raw materials: oil from Venezuela, copper from Chile, soybeans from Argentina. But Mexico's exports go overwhelmingly to the huge U.S. market right on its border.¶ Beteta noted that China imports three-quarters of the oil it consumes.¶ "China needs to guarantee oil for its citizens' cars, but also obviously for its economy as a whole, which has a high energy intensity, and Mexico is an oil power," he said.¶ At the same time, Pena Nieto's

government has said that it will soon present an energy reform bill to allow greater national and international investment in its oil sector. It hasn't revealed the details of the initiative, but Beteta said it "has awakened the appetite of many people."¶ State oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, already has taken small steps to increase its relationship with China, which until recently had been minimal.

AT: Mexico Says No – Trade Deficit
Xi making moves to solve trade deficit concerns – Mexico says yes.
Over the last few years, China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America, striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina.¶ And now the Asian power house is reaching out to Mexico, one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop¶ On Tuesday President Xi Jinping begins a three-day visit to the region just as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment.¶ China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports. Analysts say that could
mean oil, which Mexico has and China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class.¶ "Access to strategic raw materials is key to understanding the dynamic of relations with China," said Hugo Beteta, director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil."¶ The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. Xi started in Trinidad and Tobago, where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries, and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica.¶ China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years, and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China.¶ U.S. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund.¶

Relations with Mexico had been chilly in the past, especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the
Dalai Lama in 2011, something China's Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations."¶ President Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office in December, has

been aggressive so far about changing that, and the two new presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up, just two months into Xi's presidency.¶ During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press.¶ That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation.

--- Venezuela ---

Solves Venezuelan Oil
China solves Venezuelan oil better – empirics. Cerna 11. [Michael, staff @ CRC, "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the
region" China Research Center -- Vol 10 No 1 -- www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/]

In 2009, China became Brazil’s largest single export market, eclipsing the U.S. for the first time in history. Later, Brazil’s then-president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, signed an agreement that allowed the China Development Bank and Sinopec to loan Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, $10 billion in return for as many as 200,000 barrels a day of crude oil for ten years (Economist, 2009). This is but one example of how China is seizing lending opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders such as the Inter-American Development Bank are being pushed to their limits. “Just one of
China’s loans, the $10 billion for Brazil’s national oil company, is almost as much as the $11.2 billion in all approved financing by the Inter-American Bank in 2008,” according to The New York Times.¶ It was not

only in Brazil that China went after oil. In order to meet rising industrial needs and consumer demand, China has pursued investments and agreements with a variety of Latin American oil producers. In 2007 Venezuela agreed to a $6 billion joint investment fund for infrastructure projects at home and for oil refineries in China able to process Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Santiso, 2007). Venezuela planned to increase oil exports to China by 300,000 barrels per day. Then in 2009, Venezuela announced a $16 billion investment deal with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for oil exploration in the Orinoco River to develop heavy crude oil resources (Economist, 2009). Meanwhile, the CNPC has invested $300 million in technology to use Venezuela’s Orimulsion fuel in Chinese power plants. This exemplifies Venezuela’s desire to break away from the U.S.
During a visit to China in 2004, President Chavez said shifting exports to China would help end dependency on sales to the United States (Johnson, 2005).

Venezuela prefers Chinese oil engagement – no strings attached. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. [Simon, Brazil bureau chief, Alexei, journalist, "Deals help China expand sway in Latin
America" New York Times -- April 15 -- www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0]

China has also pushed into Latin American countries where the United States has negligible influence, like Venezuela.¶ In February, China’s vice president, Xi Jinping, traveled to Caracas to meet with President Hugo Chávez. The two men announced that a Chinese-backed development fund based here would grow to $12 billion from $6 billion, giving Venezuela access to hard currency while agreeing to increase oil shipments to China to one million barrels a day from a level of about 380,000 barrels.¶ Mr. Chávez’s government contends the Chinese aid differs from other multilateral loans because it comes without strings attached, like scrutiny of internal finances. But the Chinese fund has generated
criticism among his opponents, who view it as an affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty.

China engagement solves Venezuelan oil. Grant 9. [Will, Mexico and Central America Correspondent, "China in huge Venezuela oil deal" BBC News -- September 17 -news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8260200.stm]

and Venezuela pays them by sending fuel and crude oil to China. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. the Venezuelan minister of foreign affairs..wiley.1111/lamp. Issue 1. "The Chinese–Venezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -. (4) agreements in which China supplies capital goods.com/doi/10.¶ Investors in Venezuela's oil industry have complained for months that a lack of government investment in infrastructure has hurt production.Indiana University.¶ There are at least five categories of agreements related to oil and energy issues: (1) oil supply agreements. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes. PDVSA.Venezuela has announced a $16bn (£10bn) investment deal with China for oil exploration in the Orinoco river.¶ President Hugo Chavez said the deals would boost oil production in Venezuela by about 900.Indiana University. PhD. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes.¶ For President Chavez it is part of a wider effort to increase his base of bilateral partners in the oil industry. Bilateral cooperation in the oil sector increased and deepened after 2006. Since then. History -. June -onlinelibrary. During President Chávez's visit to China in October 1999. Venezuela. Mr Chavez said the deal with China was over three years and that the investment would go towards developing heavy crude oil resources in the Orinoco River belt. with the establishment of a strategic alliance between the two countries. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes. June -onlinelibrary. Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence. PhD. "The Chinese–Venezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -. but financial agreements and capital supply agreements are also important (Figure  1).wiley. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. Luis Alfonso Dávila.” 2012).. the Chinese government had fostered agreements with the Venezuelan oil state company. Issue 1. but the beginning of a new era in Venezuelan–Chinese relations can be dated to 2001. Zeng Peiyan. Mérida. Jose.12006/full] President Chávez visited China and signed energy-related agreements in 1999. and high-level representatives of the Chinese government have been in Venezuela to discuss mechanisms to activate the strategic alliance. [Rita. PhD. and (5) agreements on infrastructure. Mérida.1111/lamp. such as drills or tankers. the Chinese president visited Caracas in 2010. PhD.¶ The move comes shortly after Venezuela signed a similar agreement with Russia. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes.¶ Multi-polar world¶ Speaking on state television. (3) financial cooperation agreements in which China provides loans to develop economic and social projects. which is estimated to be $20bn (£12bn). History -. In 2001.Vol 4. signed a memorandum of understanding for energy cooperation between 2001 and 2011 (Memorandum de Entendimiento entre el Ministerio de Energía y Minas de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela y la Comisión Estatal de Planificación y Desarrollo de la . Venezuela. Even before. by which Venezuela is engaged in the provision of oil to China. China solves all aspects of the oil industry. and Chinese oil companies had been operating Venezuelan oilfields in the Maracaibo Lake Basin (“CNPC in Venezuela. The first action in the construction of such an alliance was the creation of a High Level Joint Commission to coordinate relations between the two countries. and the Chinese minister of planning and development. Jose. or services.Vol 4. Mérida. Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence.¶ Oil supply agreements and exploration and exploitation agreements represent the majority of treaties signed between China and Venezuela. the most important agreements established a joint commission to explore and foster initiatives of cooperation in energy and an agreement to supply Orimulsion to China. (2) agreements to promote Chinese participation in the exploration and exploitation of oil in the Orinoco Belt. Chávez visited China several times. [Rita.com/doi/10. Mérida. Venezuela says yes.12006/full] Table  1 shows the chronology of exploration and exploitation agreements.000 barrels per day. in particular the construction of refineries in China to process Venezuelan oil.

promote cooperation in the development of Orimulsion. the Venezuelan government would foster the participation of Chinese oil firms in the development of studies leading to their participation in investments for oil exploration in Venezuela and as shareholders or operators in the exploitation of hydrocarbons. 2001–2011). electricity. and explore mechanisms to increase their firms' cooperation in coal. .República Popular China sobre la Cooperación Energética Decenal. Both governments would foster cooperation between their oil firms. and new sources of energy. carry on conversations to sign an agreement to drill the Zumano oilfield.¶ According to this agreement. and the Chinese government would encourage its firms to participate in the provision of technical services and oil engineering in Venezuela and exports of oil materials.

He considers deepening ties with China as vital for constructing a more ‘multipolar world. "The Chinese–Venezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes.” In an official document of the Venezuela embassy in the United Kingdom. this cooperation must be understood in the context of the new foreign policy fostered by its government. p. Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence. markets for oil. PhD. Chávez “has elevated relations with China to almost national priority.Ext: Venezuela Prefers China China is the preferred partner. this objective is clearly established: .’ lessening Venezuela's dependence on U. As Corrales (2010. History -. June -onlinelibrary. 115) has pointed out.com/doi/10. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. Mérida. [Rita. Venezuela. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes. Mérida.wiley. One of its goals is the promotion of a multipolar world.12006/full] In Venezuela. in response to U.S.1111/lamp.. hegemony after the end of the Cold War.Indiana University.S. Jose. PhD. Issue 1.Vol 4.

The two countries had signed 300 bilateral agreements.000 barrels of oil to the Asian giant daily. including 80 major projects. a consulting firm. a government-backed newspaper. and China grew to $18bn in 2011. according to government figures. Venezuela relations between Venezuela and the US soured in recent looked away from its traditional trading partner towards the east. according to a University of Miami study in 2010. Web Producer.” Sanchez told Al Jazeera.¶ “Usually.¶ Looking east¶ As years. and plans to increase that to one million by 2015.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351. "Venezuela looks to China for economic boost" Al Jazeera -. China could soon surpass the US as Venezuela’s largest trading partner.March 12 -www. a 24-fold increase from 2003. reported China Daily. because of oil exports. Arsenault 13. “Venezuela has posted a positive trade balance with China. holder of the world’s largest oil reserves.”¶ Trade between Venezuela. Sanchez sporting thick cufflinks with the red Chinese flag and a dark blazer . worrying some and of OrOctrading. [Chris. manufactured goods from China are coming into Latin America and raw materials are going out.Solves Venezuelan Trade China is a key market for Venezuelan trade.aljazeera. Alvaro Ruiz Sanchez has his eyes on the prize. but without those we would have a major deficit. .html] China’s economic and political footprint grows across Latin America and Africa.¶ President Venezuela exports more than 500.¶ As enriching others.has been teaching Venezuelan companies about doing business with the world’s second-largest economy.

and European companies. the government was ending the 2006. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes. new needs emerged. History -. and supply of oil to infrastructure agreements. and it was necessary to provide capital goods and services (Table  3). When Chinese firms began to participate in the Venezuelan oil market. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. Jose. exploitation.. Venezuela.12006/full] The evolution of the agreements signed by the two countries can be seen in Figure  2. Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes. [Rita. at that time. such as the construction of tankers and refineries (Table  4). Mérida. Caracas welcomed Chinese interest because. Issue 1. operating agreements signed in the 1990s and trying to diversify its partners beyond U.com/doi/10. a fact that indicated Chinese interest in entering the Venezuelan oil sector as a first step to ensuring an increasing supply of oil from that country.Solves Oil Infrastructure China solves oil infrastructure in Venezuela. supply agreements and financial agreements (related to oil supply) were signed (Tables  1 and 2). PhD. which highlights the interest of each country in promoting cooperation and how this has evolved. cooperation has evolved from exploration. Mérida.Indiana University.1111/lamp. In the most recent stage. "The Chinese–Venezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -. PhD.S. June -onlinelibrary.wiley.Vol 4. Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence. exploration and exploitation agreements prevailed. Since . In the early stage (1999–2005).

chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects. CDB resold some of the oil into the market to raise cash. Venezuela’s oil minister. [Javier.AT: China Can’t Solve Venezuelan Crude Oil New Asian infrastructure solves Venezuelan crude refinement. “Venezuela has attempted to diversify its oil export destinations away from the US” as a matter of national policy over the past few years. however. with the China Development Bank in 2008-2011. the bank is shipping the oil into China.com/intl/cms/s/0/47e7fad8-cdc3-11e2-8313-00144feab7de.000 b/d to Beijing to repay $40bn worth of loans signed between Petróleos de Venezuela.000 b/d in February. due to western sanctions.June 13 -www. Venezuelan oil exports to the US have fallen 25 per cent to an average of 900. In the past. the state-owned oil company. with sales falling to a 25-year low of 579.ft. As a result.000 b/d in 2012.US department of energy¶ But oil traders and analysts say that without the retreat of Iran due to the sanctions it would have been impossible for Caracas to win Asian market share so quickly. Commodities Editor.¶ Over the last decade.¶ The repayment of several oil-for-loans programmes with China is also playing a big role in the surge in Venezuelan oil exports into Asia.¶ Rafael Ramírez.html#axzz2ZQLFfjcZ] The impact of the sanctions on Iranian oil exports is not the only factor driving Venezuela into Asia. Caracas has also welcomed investments by Chinese and Indian oil companies in its hydrocarbons industry.¶ The construction of new and complex refineries in Asia has also paved the way for the arrival of the notoriously difficult-torefine Venezuelan crude in China and India. said that the Iranian sanctions are helping Venezuela’s diversification strategy. Caracas is handing about 400. According to the US department of energy. The drop in exports has accelerated this year. but as Iranian oil exports fall. "Venezuela fills void left by Iranian oil export sanctions" Financial Times -. Amrita Sen. China has become the fastest growing destination for Venezuelan oil . “especially for countries like India and to an extent China.¶ Venezuela has attempted to diversify its oil export destinations away from the US¶ . at a time when Tehran struggles to retain foreign investors. even from allies like Beijing. said during the recent meeting of the Opec oil cartel in Vienna that the growth of oil exports into Asia was the result of a successful oil market “diversification strategy” away from the US. growing from virtually nothing in 2005 to 10 per cent of Chinese total oil imports. Blas 13.¶ The growing ties between Venezuela and India and China go deeper than oil exports. . who are replacing Iranian crude with others”.

Misc --- .--.

according to Global Intelligence Report. China signed a $10 billion agreement with Argentina in July 2010 to refurbish two major rail lines. There are also opportunities not paid for by China. but beneficial to the Asian country nonetheless. China is partnering with Brazil to improve Brazil’s railways and establish a rail link to the Pacific to cut transportation costs of iron ore and soybeans. Peru completed work on a road that connects the mountainous country to Brazil.. China is currently Colombia’s second -largest trade partner after the U. a consortium of three companies from China. with its Pacific coast. . with bilateral trade rising from $10 million in 1980 to more than $5 billion in 2010. (as well as companies from Japan and South Korea) are bidding on a high speed rail project in Brazil to connect Rio. on the northern Atlantic coast of Colombia. "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the region" China Research Center -.chinacenter.www.S. This project to connect oil-producing regions in Venezuela to the capital will assist China in maintaining a steady energy supply from Venezuela. Peru itself has had a free trade agreement with China since 2008.5 billion in 2009. which shows that China’s focus goes beyond the coastal countries. [Michael. Sao Paulo and Campinas. China signed an agreement to take a 40% stake in a Venezuelan rail project worth $7.China Solves TI China solves transportation infrastructure investment in Latin America. with an eye toward making resource deliveries more efficient. Cerna 11. At the same time. In January 2011. This has the potential to boost Peruvian and Brazilian trade with Asia.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/] China’s investments have been in the area of transportation. China is proposing to build a rail link in Colombia to rival the Panama Canal. The 220.Vol 10 No 1 -. according to The Guardi an’s Tania Branigan.¶ In addition. staff @ CRC. making it easier for China to pass goods through Latin America and import raw materials. Other countries also are benefitting from Chinese investment.kilometer line would connect Cartagena.

Branigan 11. a researcher with the Institute of Latin-American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.¶ A few recent examples . where demand is rising fast. they all work out. Sceptics point out the canal is undergoing a $5.¶ Xu Shicheng.guardian.000km of track in Iran. Global Intelligence Report 11. Companies working on major infrastructure projects have often been the targets of sabotage and extortion by the country's warring factions.¶ The proposed route crosses three mountain chains and passes through remote areas dominated by leftist rebels and heavily armed drug-trafficking militias.¶ Although the link would be almost three times the length of the canal that cuts through neighbouring Panama. It is doing a lot of things in Latin America.¶ "China has a large foreign exchange reserve and it makes sense to invest in such projects."¶ The success of the planned connection would depend on costs as well as speed.co. [Tania.¶ Panama also has a rail route.¶ "I don't want to create exaggerated expectations. led by China . requires new transportation.¶ In addition to its massive domestic investment and its expansion of links to neighbours.February 14 -www.China Solves LA Rail China solves railway investment in Latin America – expertise and resources. on the northern Atlantic coast of Colombia. such as building power stations in Ecuador and exploring iron and oil in Brazil. the president added: "The studies [the Chinese] have made on the costs of transporting per tonne. China has also sought to export its expertise – rebuilding Angola's rail network and signing deals with countries including Algeria and South Africa.¶ "It's a real proposal … and it is quite advanced. and of tackling complex technical problems – notably in constructing the line linking Tibet to the rest of China. Latin America remains a key raw materials exporter and getting those good to markets. which allow Asian exports to reach the east coast from west coast ports. built almost 60 years before the canal. China's ambassador to Colombia. The most advanced is a $7.6bn plan to build a 791km railway and expand the port of Buenaventura.¶ But China's own ambitious railway expansion programme has given it experience of building at speed.3bn) expansion to double its capacity. the Panama Canal Authority's vice-president for research. Earlier this month.html] Much of the infrastructure investment by outside powers in the 21st century. which crosses 550km of continuous permafrost and must endure extreme temperatures. energy and communications infrastructure. It would allow up to 40m tonnes of freight a year to be carried from Colombia to its ports and promote the export of coal to China.¶ "In the 70s and 80s. and we view the country as a port to the rest of Latin America. China was also helping to expand ports in Colombia.¶ Rodolfo Sabonge.March 10 -. Iran's Press TV reported that the two countries had signed a $13bn contract for China Railways to build 5.uk/world/2011/feb/14/china-rail-rival-panama-canal] The 220km rail connection would connect Cartagena. the cost of investment." China solves transportation investment. now largely in Asia."¶ The ministry of foreign affairs in Beijing confirmed the proposal.¶ A shipping executive told the newspaper that moving containers on to and off the link at either end would probably cost $200 each in addition to $100 fees for the rail transport. fees for the canal are around $100 a container. China correspondent.¶ The project is reportedly one of several Chinese proposals to improve transport links with Asia.¶ But the plan also includes a proposal to build a new city south of Cartagena to assemble Chinese exports.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-and-Brazil-Leading-Energy-Infrastructure-Investments-in-LatinAmerica." he said. In comparison.¶ Colombia's existing rail network already links Bogotá with the Caribbean coast and the east of the country.oilprice. but it makes a lot of sense … Asia is the new motor of the world economy.25bn (£3.¶ Gao Zhengyue. with its Pacific coast – making it easier for China to export its goods through the Americas and import raw materials such as coal. "China goes on the rails to rival Panama canal" The Guardian -. but it has suffered from decades of underinvestment. told the FT: "Colombia has a very important strategic position. told the FT he was more concerned about competition from US rail freight services. on Colombia's Pacific coast. ["China and Brazil Leading Energy Infrastructure Investments in Latin America" Oil Price -. is being made for the same reasons it was in the 19th. which is more expensive than the waterway for shippers but faster. pointed out that China has already started building a railway in Venezuela and recently signed a deal with Argentina to construct another. So I don't think it is surprising that China is building a railway there." Juan Manuel Santos told the Financial Times (subscription).

In July last year. oil producing regions and the capital is seen as part suggest of China’s interest in maintaining a steady energy supply from a Venezuela indebted to China for the next few decades due to recent agreements by President Chavez. In total. . angering environmentalists and concerning those watching Ecuador’s long term budget outlook.5 billion.9% interest rate. Two other initial agreements worth $1. Chinese companies are building three hydroelectric dams in Ecuador. a consortium of three companies from China. the Coca-Codo Sinclair Hydroelectric Project.5 billion each are related to a potential subway line in Cordoba and train line connecting the Buenos Aires Ezeiza airport. will divert water from Ecuador’s highest waterfall. China is financing over half of the energy infrastructure projects in Ecuador right now. Meanwhile.China is leading the way. (as well as companies from Japan and South Korea) are bidding on a high speed rail project in Brazil to connect Rio. This project to connect rural portions of Venezuela.¶ In 2009. the projects have not come without controversy. which is 85% financed by China at a 6. China signed a $10 billion agreement with Argentina to refurbish the Belgrano Cargas freight rail line and an additional $2 billion agreement to upgrade the Ferrocarril Belgrano Norte y Sur. However. China signed an agreement to take a 40% stake in a Venezuelan rail project worth $7. One project.¶ Beyond rail. Sao Paulo and Campinas.

requires new transportation.html] Colombia’s announcement that China plans to build a railroad to serve as a canal alternative received widespread media coverage last month. However. led by China . ["China and Brazil Leading Energy Infrastructure Investments in Latin America" Oil Price -. .oilprice.¶ Panama. Latin America remains a key raw materials exporter and getting those good to markets. energy and communications infrastructure. This ranged from the UK investment in Argentine railroad system to the French building of a railroad and eventual US building of a canal in of the infrastructure investment by outside powers in the 21st century . the proposal is simply the most high profile of a growing pattern of outside infrastructure investment by new powers in Latin America.AT: China Int’l Fiat Bad It’s the most predictable. now largely in Asia. is being made for the same reasons it was in the 19th.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-and-Brazil-Leading-Energy-Infrastructure-Investments-in-LatinAmerica. there was a stage of significant investment in the region by outside powers.March 10 -. following Latin America’s independence.¶ Much In the 19th century. Global Intelligence Report 11.

Answers To --- .--.

"China's Relations With Latin America: Shared Gains.June -www.¶ The key finding is that little change took ¶ place over time in the voting coincidences ¶ between China and Japan and the four ¶ most important Latin American countries ¶ (Figures 3a through 3d). For the sake of calibration. The marked increase ¶ in Sino-Latin American trade had no discernible effect on the voting behavior of ¶ the major Latin American countries in the ¶ U. Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -. Professor @ Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. In this section. we examine the relative ¶ coincidence in the voting behavior of China ¶ and several Latin American countries in ¶ the United Nations General Assembly (the ¶ few votes missed are counted as abstentions along with the explicit abstentions) ¶ as one indicator for such behavior.N.org/PublicationFiles/china.thedialogue. General Assembly. We rely ¶ on the voting records from the 1991-92 to ¶ the 2002-03 sessions. Dominguez 6. The movements in each case represent no trends. they are ¶ “noise” in the data. *Jorge. .pdf] Such a marked growth in China’s trade ¶ relations with Latin America might be ¶ expected to shift Latin American foreign ¶ policies to accommodate Chinese interests.AT: Red Spread China’s increased engagement doesn’t sway Latin American political preferences – UN votes prove. the extent of voting coincidence ¶ between Japan—a major world power also ¶ located in East Asia—and the same Latin ¶ American countries is included.

manufacturing exporting nations.Vol 1 Issue 1 -. [Dr. Taiwan.November -digitalcommons. China is closer to heaven than hell. No wonder economists from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and ¶ Development (OECD).November -digitalcommons. Reality: Low labor costs in China are significant but the wide ¶ availability of capital.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent. Reality: Most Latin American ¶ economies do not compete for the same type of FDI that China receives and China’s ¶ investments in Latin America are only the beginning of a trend that offers many ¶ opportunities for the region.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] “A closer look at three common perceptions of China’s impact on emerging markets can ¶ help clarify whether or not Latin American countries can benefit from the ongoing shifting ¶ power equation in the world economy. "China rising in Latin America: More opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -. Hsiang 9. Taiwan. coupled with very high productivity growth levels.AT: Dutch Disease China investment helps Latin America. including negotiating bilateral free-trade agreements. Antonio. Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] World Bank economists report that the rise of China and India is bestowing substantive net ¶ benefits on Latin America through higher commodity prices. Myth III: China’s rise benefits commodity exporting countries ¶ and adversely affects light. if Latin American governments adopt appropriate ¶ investment and trade strategies.”37 .” Myth I: The main source of China’s competitive ¶ advantage is cheap labor. generally concur with their World Bank counterparts that “as seen ¶ through the Latin American lens. are equally ¶ important in explaining China’s hardto-beat competitiveness. Moreover. "China rising in Latin America: More opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -.38 Chinese investment in latin America key to its economy. [Dr. Antonio. Myth II: China has a ¶ negative impact on FDI flows to other emerging markets. cheaper industrial inputs. Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology.Vol 1 Issue 1 -. no link to dutch disease.edu/cgi/viewcontent. Hsiang 9. Latin ¶ American exporters should be able to successfully penetrate the burgeoning Asian ¶ commercial markets and better integrate themselves into Asian-linked global production ¶ networks.kennesaw. and ¶ growing capital inflows. Reality: China’s rise offers ¶ opportunities in keeping and sustaining a manufacturing sector.

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***NET BENEFIT*** .

--.Soft Power --- .

offers a viable alternative. such as Brazil. No wonder some 60 percent of all anti-dumping cases launched against China at the World Trade Organization were filed by Latin American countries. Professor of financial journalism at the School of Journalism and Communication. Confucius. "Soft Power and China's Story in Latin America" Caixin Online -.¶ China as "la fabrica del mundo" – the factory of the world – arouses fear and resentment. population and spectacular economic achievements of late have inspired grand fantasies across Latin America. since China's size. by the reckoning of the International Monetary Fund."¶ Yes. In predominantly Catholic countries. blithely emitting unacceptable amounts of the carbon dioxide that causes global warming." by those who guessed ships would be ferried on railroad cars from sea to sea. while adhering to mercantilist policies: Doing business for business' sake. can quickly turn to antipathy. wreaking havoc on the environment. There's likewise a prevailing readiness to accept and emulate China. unlike the dynamic economies of East Asia stuck in a slow-growth rut. The Chinese government's soft-power Confucius Institutes. China as an atheist country does not go down very well.com/2011-1109/100324170. "depends not only on whose army wins. promoting soft power overseas was a policy goal recently declared by the Chinese government. 1 trading partner.¶ The China-Latin America attraction is easy to understand. China provides a growth model as a counterweight to the United States. This would be an engineering feat that arguably only the Chinese could accomplish: A 220-kilometer railway across floodplains and three mountain ranges." or "Chinese story" is a synonym for "tall tale.¶ Barely a decade ago. Tsinghua University. countries overly dependent on the United States. Now.pdf) . China will overtake the United States and become the world's largest economy in 2016.¶ In the second half of the 20th century. It's actually a voracious monster. have benefited enormously as Chinese commodity purchases boosted export revenues and helped them weather the 2008 financial crisis.¶ A Colombian woman I recently met said she is keen to learn the Chinese language but confesses she's more drawn to Tibetan Buddhism than the moral teachings of that ancient sage.¶ China's economic success.caixin.1NC: Soft Power NB Counterplan key to shore up Chinese soft power. which in turn has given China a golden opportunity to extend its cultural soft power abroad. With the U. For a country of 1. if managed well. as more than 90 percent of Latin American manufacturing exports are threatened by Chinese competition.¶ Infatuation with China. and through a region marred by drug-trafficking violence.english.S.¶ "Cuento chino" is more relevant than ever this year amid buzz over an US$ 8 billion railroad project scheduled to link two Colombian cities: the port of Cartagena on the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise.¶ Bonding China and Latin America calls for a narrative that resonates. another only to find themselves. the game will be lost even before it begins. Center Strategic & International Studies. Wiest 11. The story got more intriguing when the railway started being called a "canal seco. Indeed. Mao Zedong's doctrine of guerrilla warfare – which once shone like a beacon guiding fervent revolutionaries in South America – faded into the Andean jungles.” http://csis." It's a fitting expression for our times.html] The Spanish expression "cuento chino. Chinese soft power key to its economy. minerals and natural resources. however. the story is important.¶ No wonder the developing world is held in thrall. An economic powerhouse China may be. gobbling crude oil.¶ State-led import substitution policies mired these countries in self-imposed isolation and inefficiencies. “Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States.September 11 -. were hurt more than others during that recent downturn. but it can hardly be called a gentle giant. Chile and Peru. But since launching its capitalist transformation. [Nailene Chou. and Buenaventura on the Pacific Ocean. Latin American countries have tried one failed development model after Joseph Nye once said. as Harvard University's China needs a convincing narrative. CSIS 9 (March 2009. China has avoided ideological exports. China has shared experiences and future hopes to tell to other emerging economies. economy in recession. The initiative recognizes that a nation's success on the world stage. achieved via controlled economic liberalization and by expanding technical capacities in order to attract foreign investment. Neoliberal policies in line with the Washington Consensus led to dependency on fickle capital inflow. It carefully keeps a safe distance from leftist politics in Venezuela and Bolivia." or "dry canal. but also on whose story wins.¶ Latin American countries that today count China as their No.¶ The rail project's plans sparked wild speculation about China's intent and what some said was an unabashed incursion into America's backyard. cash-rich China is now in a unique position to invest in capital-intensive projects.¶ Latin America's perceptions of China are still largely shaped by international media. In contrast. Now. could bring greater understanding of China. Finding the right story will be crucial for soft power policy to succeed. China was the world's seventh-largest economy.3 billion people with a per capita GDP no higher than Colombia or Peru's. such as Mexico.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_web.

the Americas. Then you can say hello to World War III.edu/TomPlate2003/06302003. some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of World War II revisited and look to annex a slice of China. without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting. Meanwhile.professor of Policy and Communication Studies. which don’t’ want them and cant handle them. That would send Singapore and Malaysia. Beijing has also sought to strengthen these relationships by promoting regional economic integration and security mechanisms. Chinese leaders are aiming to deepen relationships with all regions of the world. however. and Pakistan for Kashmir. traditional soft power has also become a growing piece of how China acquires its influence. however.once occupied by Japan.on its own. Plate 3 (June 30.4 Differences in regional geopolitical dynamics. “WHY NOT INVADE CHINA?.into nervous breakdowns. There is a distinct style in China’s approach to relationship building: it practices an omni-directional friendship policy that emphasizes the importance of state sovereignty and noninterference with the objective of securing stable and sustainable access to resources and opening new export markets to fuel its economy . Asia style. 2003. increasing cultural and academic exchange programs and engaging local communities through skilled diplomats. India might make a grab for Tibet. participating in humanitarian missions. Tom Plate . That would knock Asia into chaos. and Southeast Asia. Chinese economic collapse causes WWIII.ucla.Aware of the benefits of a sophisticated soft-power portfolio. providing concessionary loans and debt relief. emphasizing the role of the United Nations. much less outright military invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses.” http://asiamedia. Although the nature of China’s relationships with the regions explored in this volume is largely economic . the Middle East. require Beijing to tailor its softpower strategy in each of the four regions it is active. particularly the developing nations of Africa.htm) But imagine a China disintegrating. . A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls. Beijing uses a variety of tools to increase its influence in the developing world that include economic incentives and military cooperation.

Yi 10 (March 25.competition inevitable when changing balance of power Channel News Asia 5 (June 27. at America's expense. we can say that the relative soft power positions of China and the US in Asia and in the world have undergone changes.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/print/154899/1/. China is an economic giant reshaping the landscape of world trade. " Between a status quo super power like the US and a rising power like China. a soft sell may prove more effective than a hard sell . As Joseph Nye of Harvard University. Soft power is zero-sum.sum CSIS 9 (March 2009. So Dr Tan's conclusion is that softer forms of power are becoming increasingly important. It can also defend and advance Chinese interests: "China has to substantially increase its soft power in order to play an active role in international competition"31 The debate on soft . "Today. of PoliSci & director of the China Institute @Marietta. He said: "The and question can be asked whether the US has lost its monopoly on hard soft power.html) China is a growing soft power.channelnewsasia. Under the new conditions. China's growing soft power makes it increasingly difficult for the United States to maintain a hard line against Chinese initiatives and interests. says Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan. http://www. Dr Tan said: "When the term 'soft power' was introduced a decade and a half ago. "While most military.” http://csis. Dr Tan said. Dr Tan noted that both soft and hard power. Serious challenges from China now are reducing America's influence internationally. who also invented the term "soft power" some 15 years ago. Power in a global information age. will include a soft dimension of attraction as well as the hard dimensions of coercion and payment. had been regarded a monopoly of the United States. emphasized. Soft Power between the US and China is zero. which refers to military capability. Xiaoxiong Yi. more than ever. but also on whose story wins. technological and economic power remains concentrated in American hands.Ext: US-China Soft Power = Zero Sum US-Sino soft power is zero sum.pdf) They believe soft power can secure a stable and peaceful international environment and facilitate the acceptance of China's rise internationally. Dr Tan was speaking at the Eisenhower Fellowships conference in Singapore. referring to China's economic and cultural influence.” Coshocton Tribune. there will inevitably be tension and competition. Combining these dimensions effectively is called 'smart power. The United States has to wake up and focus on the task of rediscovering how to be a smart power again. Conferences like the Eisenhower Fellowships serve as a useful bridge to create a better understanding between the cultures of America and Asia. "In today's information age." Dr Tan said this was evident in the cross-Atlantic dispute over European countries lifting an arms embargo against China. “Reinventing America's smart power. l n) It is clear the rise of China's soft power.Associate Prof. And Beijing is currently embarking on its most important public relations project . 2010. Center Strategic & International Studies.'" The United States was a smart power in the past.as a means to show the world what China can do. particularly China. is an important issue that needs to be addressed. A common catch phrase in the arena of international affairs today is the use of "soft power" by countries to boost political and economic links and one common feature that is emerging among countries is the move towards negotiations to sign free trade agreements to expand their networks both bilaterally and multilaterally. This is especially when Asia is growing ever more connected to the rest of the world..the 2008 Olympics . But analysts now argue that the soft power of the US may already have peaked as other players are learning to play the game. success depends not only on whose army wins..org/files/media/csis/pubs/090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_web. 2005. “Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States. China had little international leverage aside from its nuclear arsenal and huge army.

S. and how these efforts would affect U. Where all three intersect is in the latest discussion on the so-called China development model: whether it could or should be exported.power in China now revolves around the question of what comes next: After China determines its core socialist value system.-China relations. yousuo zuowei. so that an expected increase of U. In 2004. and Chinese soft power: Is the relationship zero-sum .S. soft power under President Barack Obama will result in a decline in Chinese soft-power appeal? Reactive versus Proactive Soft Power The China Model The discourse on soft power has overlapped with the wider domestic debate on Chinas development strategy and the foreign policy debate of taoguangyanghui vs. whether China should deliberately use its soft power to promote its influence. should China actively promote its values as an alternative to Western values? Can socialism with Chinese characteristics combined with capitalism serve as a development model for developing nations? There is also interest around the world in the relationship between U.S. Joshua Cooper Ramo published an article entitled *"Ihe Beijing Consensus" which put forward the theory that Chinas model of development offered developing countries an alternative to the Washington Consensus.84 .

Econ Impact Extensions -- .-.

Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow for Global Trends Strategic Foresight Initiative.. . China.2NC: Turns US Econ Chinese economic decline tanks the US economy Manning and Garrett 13.acus. would likely have a devastating effect on the global economy and on international stability and security.March 19 -. not failing. Senior Fellow in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Stability. the United States and all other nations. China experiencing a sharp economic decline and resulting political and social instability. hoping for or seeking to promote failure or a sharp decline in China’s fortunes could lead to mutual assured economic destruction as well as to global governance gridlock in the face of mounting global challenges threatening the prosperity and security of China.org/publication/does-beijing-have-strategy-chinas-alternative-futures] The United States needs to avoid schadenfreude as China faces increasing difficulties in the future and recognize that US interests are best served by a successful.http://www. “Does Beijing Have a Strategy? China’s Alternative Futures” Atlantic Council -. and that a successful China is more likely to eschew extreme nationalism in favor of bilateral and global cooperation with the United States. [Robert A. In short. Banning.

former Chief of Staff. They are also issues that transcend borders and have the potential to draw China into the international arena as a nation with a stake in making cooperation work. Comfortable.. It should be more likely to be interested in preserving regional peace and stability. and public health. This could calm Chinese fears of being marginalized or contained.S. a worrisome source of destabilizing social pressure. It must also find jobs for an estimated 150 million unemployed migrants. North Korea. officials and private experts on environmental problems (for example. Domestic stability in China benefits America. a number expected to swell by at least 5 to 6 million a year.2NC: Laundry List Strong Chinese growth key to solve Asian stability. [Howard M. prosperous Chinese citizens are more likely to share concerns similar to those Americans have and be more willing to cooperate on the range of issues relating to such concerns. and others in the region in maintaining calm and promoting dialogue on Korean Peninsula security issues.scribd. prolif. and. Dialogue on matters of mutual interest promotes communication. U. Again. These are now issues of real concern for Chinese citizens in more prosperous areas of the country.com/doc/3099389/the-peoples-liberation-army-and-china-in-transition] A strong services sector. Krawitz 10. Army. “China’s trade opening and implications for regional stability” The People’s Liberation Army and China in Transition – National Defense University Press -http://www. medicine. making it easier for China to see itself as a player whose opinion is given serious weight by peers. would not only support a real middle class but also slow growth in China’s chronically unemployed underclass. and perhaps even becoming more involved in curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. A wealthy. For example. trust. Speaking from a vantage point of growing economic strength and military capability would give Beijing the respect. Visiting Senior Fellow @ NDU.S. regional security interests .S. ultimately. making it easier for China to find common cause with the United States. increased cooperation. and more willing to cooperate on regional security issues. stable China can serve U. combating international terrorism and piracy. and transportation). Japan. strategies. pollution. and terrorism. . hazardous waste. and the millions of jobs it will create. China must place over 10 million new workers into the economy every year. and disputes. domestic stability is the issue. more open to consulting with Pacific Rim neighbors. prestige. A China that risks tangible loss from aggressive and confrontational behavior should be less likely to favor precipitous action and conflict. China already shows increased interest in working with U. and diplomatic stature it craves. drug trafficking.

then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. It doesn’t end there. to a lesser extent. this means South Korea. There’s a very real chance that China might go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union – chaos. short of using nuclear weapons. a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy. Singapore.2NC: Taiwan Impact Chinese economic downturn sparks Taiwan war. there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. http://www. Taiwan war causes extinction. Japan. With the US distracted. told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle. In his book The Korean War. In the region. “The nightmare of a Chinese economic collapse” World Finance.truce or a broadened war. a Chinese government might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan – whom America is pledged to defend. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. history suggests that they don’t become successful democracies overnight. east Asia will be set on fire.the ignore. That will at best bring a global recession. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway. Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. There would be no victors in such a war. there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later. Lewis 10 (Dan. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable. civil unrest and internecine war. .horror of horrors -. for China puts sovereignty above everything else. This is when real discontent with communist party rule becomes vocal and hard to without devastating unemployment . commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War. In south Asia. it cannot be ruled out entirely. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option.2 percent.worldfinance. Lexis. could enter a new and dangerous phase. But when multi-ethnic communist countries fall apart from economic stress and the implosion of central power. the Philippines and. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability. In the very worst case scenario. we would see the destruction of civilisation. president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies. Far from it. Straits Times ’00 (6-25. No one gains in war over Taiwan) THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China.com/news/home/finalbell/article117. The crucial point is that communist authoritarian states have at least had some success in keeping a lid on ethnic tensions – so far. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Research Director of Economic Research Council. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -. Anything less than that and unemployment will rise and the massive shift in population from the country to the cities becomes unsustainable.html) It has been calculated that to keep China’s society stable – ie to manage the transition from a rural to an urban society minimum growth rate is 7. the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. hostilities between India and Pakistan. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass. Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -.raise the possibility of a nuclear war. each armed with its own nuclear arsenal. If China were to retaliate. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention.

Other Impacts -- .-.

Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades now. Boone Pickens. This narrative is familiar. Kinder critics explain that renewable energy is hopelessly expensive for developing countries. everyone. which recently became the world leader in carbon emissions. and…worldwide. It is also almost entirely wrong. China has a National Climate Change Plan. The impact is extinction.org files media csis pubs 090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_web. and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty. To be sure. The People’s R epublic of China. “Earth’s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150. the avoidable costs of climate change inaction range between 5 and 20 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) – approximately the cost of both world wars and the Great Depression combined. Foreign Affairs Strategy. All. The International Energy Agency has if China were to do nothing to curb emissions. The country is nevertheless of the correct path. economic. the climate picture is alarming. there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature. “widesp read bleaching from Texas to Trinidad…killed broad swaths of corals” due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic warming is occurring.S. the need for a peak in global greenhouse gas emissions is incompatible with continued Chinese economic growth. In addition. and not always effective. not an obstacle to engagement either. These numbers are sobering.” “pollution” or “environmental protection. professor of IR at National War College. plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago”. Chinese efforts to stem emissions are sometimes contradictory leadership has pursued efforts at structural reform to ensure compliance with environmental regulations. the thinking goes. “The world is slowly disintegrating. agree that Experts agree that to limit global warming to a moderately safe level of two degrees Celsius above the preindustrial norm. Deibel. CSIS 9 (March. Deibel ‘7 (Terry L. In contrast with the common narrative. portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria”. if not a complete myth. Villainizing China.” and party However. China figured prominently in climate cha nge discussions. The Chinese widely recognize that the threat of climate change is real. does the United States. “Chinese Soft Power and its Implications for the United States: competition and cooperation in the developing world” http: csis. wipe away huge though far in the future. Chinese obstructionism is a primary obstacle to global efforts to combat climate change. recites a common yet troubling narrative: with global temperatures rising. it would emit more carbon dioxide during the next 25 years than the worlds 26 richest counties combined. climate change could “literally alter ocean currents. as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts “brutal droughts.” writes Elizabeth Kolbert. “it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the fundamentals of global warming. “rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes”. To start. demands urgent action. if not with military and economic might. perhaps the United States would have an incentive to act as well. Jesse Kaplan and Julianne Smith.000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year” as disease spreads. significant gaps between well-intentioned rhetoric and concrete action remain. “NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record. which.000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution. carbo n . Premier Wen Jiabao made 48 references to “environment.” From the founding of the first cities some 6. and governmental instruments to foster shifts to more sustainable industrial activity. In his annual address in 2007. something about which U. floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century”. inaction. Almost every week a coal-fired and highly projected that polluting power plant large enough to service all of San Diego or Dallas opens somewhere in China. Even before it passed the United States as the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide.2NC: Warming Impact Chinese soft power solves warming – spurs modeling. while convenient. with 1998 a close second”. Conspiracy theorists grumble that China is determined to destroy the Pax Americana with emissions. and quality-of-life costs are far greater. The environmental. has completely ignored environmental considerations.pdf) When it comes to China and combating climate change. Practically. China has invested heavily in renewable energy and has more stringent efficiency standards for its automobiles than however. global carbon emissions will need to peak in the next decade and then be more than halved by 2050. distorts reality and distracts from U. and its recalcitrance about addressing climate change is. If only the Chinese would do something. human development. “In legitimate scientific circles. The Chinese coal sector alone produces upward of 16 percent of global carbon emissions. and they have taken significant steps in recent years to counter that threat . In quantifiable terms. or at least most. who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. this means that developed countries must have zero-carbon economies by mid-century and developing countries must followe suit a few decades later.” Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly. from Al Gore to T. and China has mustered a wide array of legislative. “Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today Anthropogenic – caused by CO2”) Finally.S. and the Chinese build enough such plants annually to light the entire United Kingdom. environmentalists can only dream. “glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melti ng much faster than expected.” concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq. they are not sobering only to Western eyes. It is the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. “They call it climate change…but we just call it breaking up.

At worst. about double pre-industrial levels. It is a threat not only to the security and prosperity to the United States. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. severe warming could cost 1326 percent of GDP. Economist William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually. and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm. and then everything will collapse. Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame . took place in just decades. At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm.” During the Cold War. based on positive feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New Y ork University. but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet. the best one can conclude is that “humankind’s continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earth’s climate and humanity’s life support system. so there is no way immediately to reduce levels. Global warming is the post-Cold War era’s equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and considerably better supported scientifically. atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century. the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be. “we’re just going to burn everything up. we are thus in for significant global warming. astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but possible end life on this planet. mass die offs of plants at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate. we’re going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles. But the most frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming. leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolina’s outer banks. only to slow their increase. and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms.dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). spread of disease. associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures. Faced with this specter. As the newspaper stories quoted above show. . Past ice age transitions. species extinction. and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village. Unfortunately. even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. swamp the southern third of Florida. we are and animals.

And the theme has everything to do with environmental protection. China's carbon intensity per unit GDP dropped 46 percent in 2005. “Saving The Earth With Soft Power. nuclear energy and other non-fossil energy to about 15 percent. The government has now pledged to reduce carbon intensity per unit GDP by 40-45 percent from the 2005 level by 2020. The foreign media have hailed it for its grandeur as much as for its theme. Some experts believe the Expo is a kind of power. and the great emphasis it lays on "soft war". This "soft power" is evident in abundance at the Shanghai World Expo.Ext: Soft Power Solves Warming Chinese soft power key to emissions reductions – solves warming. Zhao Kejin . This shows China's determination to cut its carbon emission.former deputy head of the Institute of Japan Studies. affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Kejin 10 (May 29. "Better City. which is totally different from that which comes out of the barrel of a gun. and increase the generation of renewable energy. 2010.” l n) Compared with 1990 levels. Better Life". or soft power. .

China has now become one of the world's key growth engines. It is on this basis that “progress on weaponization.”36 In the case of South Asia. 1999. “why would India’s possession of nuclear weapons be dangerous?”32 To come at par with the five nuclear nations. “China Plays a More Active Role”. Jaswant Singh maintains: “India’s nuclear policy remains firmly committed to a basic tenet. within a span of three minutes. and of perception of the situation in the real world were always reasonably accurate. places the region closer to the point where some accident or miscalculation could lead to nothing but disaster. The conflict-ridden South Asia has become all the more vulnerable after its nuclearization as historical animosities. “would be persuasive if several things were always true.friends. which in his view.htm) Besides.General. China also exhibited its diplomatic ideas and skills through international organizations and conferences. each additional rung. to determine if the warning was a false one. but it is generally enough to pause to assess a warning that something drastic is about to happen. Each step up the ladder.org. After having gone through it.htm) Andrei Sakharov also reiterated: “A very large nuclear war would be a calamity of indescribable proportions and absolutely unpredictable consequences. but it’s a lot better than three minutes”. The nuclear genie cannot be put back in the bottle .30 minutes isn’t much. that the country’s national security in a world of nuclear proliferation lies either in global disarmament or in exercise of the principle of equal and legitimate security for all.but the genie need not be allowed to dictate how weapons and missiles go from the drawing board to the battle field. Pleading for one standard. It was not western superiority that was decisive in preserving peace but prolonged luck”. as the geography makes it utterly impossible to determine as to who was the “trigger happy”. it would be “a tenth of the time the super powers had . all-out nuclear war would mean the destruction of contemporary civilization. is the driving motive.2NC: Asian Stability Impact China’s international image key to Asian Stability China Daily 5 (Jan 21. Facts have proven the Chinese new leadership's pragmatic diplomatic approach and the country's increasing economic temptation have helped solve issues and disputes with neighbours. Due to many years of rapid economic growth.” http://www. or simply to give a chance for cooler heads to prevail. http: www. he said. “Such a logic”. At the informal summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation late last year.pk/Beg/nuclearization%20of%20south%20asia. since western nations insist on continuing to possess nuclear weapons . The charm of its enormous market potential has made the "China threat" fallacy increasingly unpopular. Extinction Beg 99 (May 20. China has taken as an important diplomatic task to actively integrate itself into the world's mechanisms and frameworks instead of passive explanations.but this is not the case with South Asia.. and with a certain degree of probability. cause the death of hundreds of millions or billions of people. “Even with the fastest ballistic missiles”.cn english international 118482. A half-hour may not be much time.. and discards the apprehensions with respect to India becoming nuclear. would cause man to be destroyed as a biological species. Meanwhile. he says.china. he said. China drew more spotlight than any other country with the enormous opportunities its economy provided for all participants. Bowen. Its economic development is related closely with the interests of other countries nowadays. is wrong.”31 He believes disarmament to be “unrealistic politics”. questions the efficiency of seductive super power model. why should India voluntarily devalue its own state power and national security?33 He therefore poses a fundamental question: “If deterrence works in the West as it so obviously appears to. and deployment of these nuclear forces should stop.35 The second argument is that US and USSR did not share common geography as the South Asian rivals do. on inducting weapons into the armed forces. as an international currency of force and power. Mirza Aslam Beg . my take on the Cold War is that the super powers get through it with a consistent streak of luck as much as through the careful and wise decisions of national leaders. The super powers shared a buffer -thousands of miles of Ocean between them .”2 (continue…) Deterrence worked in the case of two super powers during the Cold War as has been dramatically brought to light by Gorbachev.org. “the time from launch to impact was 30 minutes. China's dynamic economic momentum and bright prospects have served as an effective instrument in raising its international image. with the uncertainties tending towards the worst. may escalate into nuclear confrontation with horrendous .34 Dr. to remove the international community's mistrust and misgivings towards itself..”37 One can thus see the futility of “non-first-use” of nuclear weapons proposition put forward by India. 2005. “Nuclearization of South Asia: Rational Diffusion of Holocaust. “If the permanent five’s possession of nuclear weapons increases security. if leaders were always logical. throw man back centuries.by what reasoning will it not work for India”. “If the permanent five continue to employ nuclear weapons.

Similarly. and even beyond. The nuclear fear waves may touch the shores of South East Asian countries. India has triggered a snow-ball impact on the continent of Asia. where is very often a precursor of nuclear competition. Nuclearization own. who would legitimately be concerned about their ‘security’ and maintaining the pace of their economic development. which exerts a dynamics of its irrational fears. Iran. . cloud rational thinking and misperceptions guide judgments. may feel threatened and may opt to become nuclear. freely playing in the Indian Ocean .reportedly in the making in collaboration with Russia - Australia and Japan would have reasons to worry about and choose options to meet the threat. By altering the non-weaponised nuclear character of South Asia. with the prospect of Indian nuclear submarine.consequences.

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americanprogress. And the United States should seek China’s cooperation in the various institutions that comprise the Inter-American system—a system that makes a fundamental commitment to democracy and human rights. [Stephanie. could find ways to work together on helping Latin American and Caribbean governments tackle crime and insecurity. The United States could use these multilateral forums to ask China to uphold its policy paper commitments to promote a more equitable economic world order.-Latin America relations and was formerly the Research Associate for the Americas Project at the Center.June 3 -www.org/issues/security/news/2009/06/03/6209/cooperating-with-china-in-latin-america/] Thus.Perm Solvency The US and China can work together in Latin America – solves the link. consultant on U. the United States and China. as important investors in the region. . as well as democracy in the international system.S. "Cooperating with China in Latin America" Center for American Progress -. Miller 9.

telecom.US > China US investment key – diversification key to Latin American competitiveness. including manufacturing. staff @ CRC. [Michael. "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the region" China Research Center -. Economic relations are dependent on often unstable commodity market demands. Cerna 11. the United States continues to be the largest buyer. manufactured products. retail and other services. while China accounts for 6.S. it does not encourage diversification of Latin America’s exports into more value-added goods. investment in the region is far more diversified and spans a range of value-added activities.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/] While China’s commodity-based trade structure is currently lucrative. Roughly 24% of the region’s exports are raw materials.” .www. and modern services.S.7% of the region’s total exports.chinacenter. are more diversified and remain fairly balanced so it is better suited to survive a possible commodity cut-off in Latin America. Karen Poniachik of Latin Trade also sees enormous risks for the region: “The steep overvaluation of the region’s currencies—due in part to the flood of investment flows and export proceeds—is eroding the competitiveness of its higher-value added goods and services. Latin America’s exports to the U. with a 40% share. finance. another 12% consists of resource-based goods and 60% is manufactured products. U. This could in turn fuel its already high level of overdependence on commodities.Vol 10 No 1 -. Going back to a comparison with the United States.

Chinese funding may also have unexpected political or environmental impacts. but long-term success will require strong institutions and responsible policy formulation. Having spurned other creditors. sustainable growth. As Latin American diplomats in China have noted. At present. through sound macroeconomic policy and effective governance over the extractive sector. Its domestic urbanization and industrialization efforts are highly dependent upon resource imports from across the globe. But in the absence of institutional controls and macroeconomic foresight. or a significant economic downturn in China. these loan agreements are likely to materialize. They are intended to guarantee China's natural resource supply over the next decade. jacks the environment.thedialogue. Many worry that environmental degradation will accompany China-funded projects. and to be used according to loan stipulations. promising mutually beneficial bilateral relationships.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2710] A: Margaret Myers.www.Cant’ Solve Energy Affs China energy investment in Latin America fails – too focused on resource extraction. few countries in Latin America would deny the immediate benefits of a renminbi infusion. have benefited greatly from China's resource-related investment. director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue. Upon first glance. The vast majority of China's investments in Latin America either directly or indirectly support resource extraction. Myers 11. But the extent to which they will benefit Ecuador and Venezuela is less certain. sustaining some degree of domestic political support. Countries like Chile. Chinese loans thus far have enabled Correa and Chávez to increase spending on popular social and infrastructure projects. "How is China changing Latin America's Energy Sector" Inter-American Dialogue -. China uses 'loans-for-oil' and other investment mechanisms to stake claims to the region's natural resources. [Margaret." . Chinese investment in Latin America continues to promote growth. doesn’t promote growth. oil-tied investments in Ecuador and Venezuela are unlikely to generate long-term.July 22 -. its recent agreements with Ecuador and Venezuela appear mutually beneficial. recipients of Chinese investment must take measures to ensure that China's 'win-win' arrangements don't just mean China wins twice. Ecuador and Venezuela are increasingly reliant upon China for infusions of capital. Also. director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue: "China promotes a 'win-win strategy' when dealing with Latin America.org/page. Barring rapid political transition in Ecuador or Venezuela.

--.Mexico --- .

when the foundations for these industrial advances were being laid. the United States. though not in the area of exploration.¶ Adding to the bilateral tension. for instance.7 billion was made up of Chinese imports to Mexico (Oppenheimer 2008). Industry watchers claim that Mexican oil output could rival that of Saudi Arabia. and industrial upgrading. Mexican leaders have been aware of this at least since the 1930s. textiles. In June 2007.S. a transition whose enormous. and toys under World Trade Organization (WTO) guidelines.html] China and Mexico: Playing an Uneven Field¶ Over the past decade the threats posed to Mexico’s economy by China have become well known. "China's Relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report . Assistant Minister for Economic Relations and International Co-operation in the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sourcemex 2003). Companies from China. The collapse of global commodity markets in the late 1970s and a chronically overvalued peso. According to a 2005 national poll. which killed 100 people in Panama (French 2007). and Kodak. however.January -usf. CEPAL (2004) reports that 2. Felipe Calderón (and Vicente Fox before him) have thus far made only minor advances in opening the oil sector to private investment.500 of these jobs were lost from the maquiladora or export-processing sector alone as a result of the relocation of manufacturing operations to China. and elsewhere are lining up to provide this investment. “ the vision of China as a threat to the Mexican economy is getting stronger every day ” (Gómez Cavazos 2005).edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52. President Luis Echevarría developed cordial relations with the Chinese government. led to a reconsideration of trade policies and the initiation of measures to privatize the economy. The economic impasse produced by this combination of pressures has provoked fears of an impending ‘China threat’ across Mexico’s industrial landscape. was recalled from shelves worldwide. Further losses will likely result from the December 2007 expiration of Mexico’s ‘peace clause’ tariffs on imported Chinese shoes. VTech.¶ Until recently Mexico stood out as an industrialization success story. One report calc ulates that for every dollar worth of goods Mexico exports to China it imports $31 worth of Chinese goods (McKinley 2005). 2006:12). printing a broad selection of national and foreign-authored reports of defective imported products. technical training. the United States. and Noam Chomsky since the 1980s: that Latin America’s pro spects for moving inwards from the periphery of the global market lie in less dependence on resource exports and more in attention to educational and technical advancement. gradually moving Mexico toward import substitution and industrialization. for instance.China  Backlash Mexico says no – China is viewed as an economic threat. ¶ In 2002 China surpassed Mexico’s position in the U. 2007:38-9). Hearn 9. During the early 1970s. with over 85 percent of its exports made up of manufactured products such as textiles. NEC. Mexico is China’s largest Latin American export marke t: of the $15 billion of Sino-Mexican bilateral trade reported for 2007. but stress the need for investment to the tune of $20 billion per year to exploit existing fields and explore new discoveries such as the deepwater Noxal field in the Gulf of Mexico (Reuters 2004. Rueda 2005). the Mexican newspaper Mural reprinted a story that concludes. Confronted by a popular perception that industrial privatization has already gone too far. household appliances.¶ Mexico’s rather abrupt adoption of neoliberal economic policy through the 1986 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) brought a series of dilemmas.usfca. 52 percent of Mexicans identify China as a “source of unfair competition” (cited in Domínguez et al.000 Mexican jobs across 12 industrial sectors. among which was the question of whether or not the oil sector would remain under the administrative control of the state.¶ The Mexican media has made much of these problems. causing the loss of over 672. and in the words of Irma Gómez Cavazos. These consist of limited projects to foreign (including Chinese) contractors.¶ Mexican suspicions of Chinese imports are compounded by concerns about their safety. [Dr. and automobile parts. $11. low-cost commercial output has effectively undercut Mexico’s industrial achievements. and Kiriyama Research Fellow at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. Furthermore. illegal Chinese imports (particularly apparel) are thought to account for close to 60 percent of the Mexican retail market. Chinese demand for energy resources has simultaneously forced the Mexican government to confront the socially unpopular and strategically uncertain prospect of privatizing the oil industry. In 2007 Chinese-manufactured toothpaste containing potentially lethal diethylene glycol. supporting its position on Taiwan and made Mexico China’s closest trade partner in Latin America. Sony. Adrian. In 1938. and seafood containing high levels of antibiotics to prevent infections from the industrial waste of China’s Eastern shores. But at this time China was also layin g the institutional foundations that would later underpin its transition to ‘market-socialism’. a cheap substitute for glycerine. owing primarily to intensifying competition from legal and illicit Chinese imports both domestically and into Mexico’s primary export market. Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized the oil industry under the PEMEX Corporation with the aim of boosting the state’s budget for soc ial programs. driving industry workers to mount periodic street protests outside the Chinese embassy and the national Economics Secretariat in Mexico City (CANAINTEX 2006. Successive governments deepened this model of development. contaminated pet food. “There was a time when the words ‘made . Other defective Chinese products to reach Latin America include disintegrating automobile tires. ¶ Mexico’s inability to compete with China in industrial manufacturing has driven it to begin emulating the resource intensive strategies of other Latin American countries. The same ingredient was included in Chinese-made cough medicine. Raúl Prebisch in the 1950s. market. ¶ Mexican apprehensions of an emerging ‘China threat’ find historical precedence in the observations of Vladimir Lenin in the early 20th century. By 2003. closed their Mexican operations and moved to China (Domínguez et al. Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney. increasing oil production to roughly 15 percent of total exports in 2005 (Dussel Peters 2007:19). together with 85 percent of shoe manufacturers in Mexico. PEMEX ultimately survived the economic reforms associated with GATT and NAFTA and is today the country’s most significant economic resource still under national management. intensifying the debate over whether the oil and electricity sectors should be privatized in order to boost productivity (Hogenboom 2007:11).

China knocked Mexico out of the No. 2 spot on the list of importers to the United States.uk/2/hi/americas/7737554. which is only going to grow in the short run.nytimes. both legal and contraband.in China’ evoked an immediate perception of ‘bad quality’. ." said Enrique Dussel Peters.¶ "For every $30 of Chinese goods that Mexico imports. Motivated by the damage that this emerging culture of fear could inflict on bilateral economic and political relations.¶ In 2007 Mexico ran a $28bn trade deficit with China.September 13 -www. Mexico imported $31 in goods from China for every dollar's worth it sent there. and that does not include the thriving market in smuggled Chinese goods. Chinese media has responded by accusing commercial competitors in western countries of overreporting such incidents to fuel misguided perceptions of a ‘China threat’ (French 2007)." Mexico will say no – prefers the US. the relative importance of Asia-Pacific remains low (about 3% of its exports) because of Mexico's close ties with the US economy .¶ " The real relationship between the People's Republic of China and Mexico is very tense . Painter 8. Last year. Mexico only exports $1 of Mexican goods to China. for Mexico. and many here see China threatening to replace Mexico as the main supplier of light manufactured goods." says Mr Erikson. [James. an expert on MexicanChinese trade at the Autonomous University of Mexico.html] But underneath these shows of cooperation lies an ugly economic street fight over the United States companies have battered Mexico's manufacturers and farmers in recent years. "Mexico builds trade ties with China" New York Times -. reporter. BBC Latin America analyst. Mexico says no to China – bad relations. Latin America's third Apec member. according to trade experts here. "This ratio of 31 to 1. McKinley 5.com/2005/09/13/international/americas/13mexico. And the trade that does exist is very much in China's favour.stm] However. The following sections outline some of the economic and cultural aspects of these efforts. analysts say. both governments have begun to explore potential pathways toward a more balanced partnership.co. from chili peppers to blue jeans to market.¶ And Mexico itself is flooded with Chinese products. [James. Last year. "China deepens Latin American ties" BBC News -news.bbc. is not only a social problem but could become a political problem. These days many North Americans and Europeans perceive ‘danger’” (Martin 2007). Chinese electronics.

the Mexican director general for Asian affairs. and the country lacks large reserves of iron and bauxite.nytimes. And the mining agreement is only a framework for future deals. Cuba. analysts say. the state-owned oil monopoly.September 13 -www. timber and other commodities throughout Latin America and Canada. [James.com/2005/09/13/international/americas/13mexico. reporter. Venezuela. he said. China has sewn up deals for Chinese companies to develop oil fields and mines and to purchase commodities in Brazil.China Can’t Solve Mexican Energy is offlimits to China. aluminum. McKinley 5. iron ore. despite the United States' longtime hegemony in the region.¶ Julian Ventura. "Mexico builds trade ties with China" New York Times -. The Constitution bans foreign investment in Petróleos Mexicanos. not a binding contract. Hu's visit seems part of a broader effort to secure future sources of oil. said oil exploration did not even come up Monday. Under his watch.html] Mr. Bolivia and Argentina. Chile.¶ Mexico is different. .

--.Venezuela --- .

like scrutiny of internal finances. But the Chinese fund has generated criticism among his opponents. who view it as an affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty. . a lawmaker who claims that China locked in low prices for the oil Venezuela is using as repayment.China  Backlash Chinese aid causes backlash – seen as swindling.www. [Simon. Alexei. Brazil bureau chief. Chávez’s government contends the Chinese aid differs from other multilateral loans because it comes without strings attached. "Deals help China expand sway in Latin America" New York Times -.html?_r=0] Mr.¶ “ The fund is a swindle to the nation.April 15 -. journalist. Romero and Barrionuevo 9.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.nytimes.” said Luis Díaz.

com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351. especially in ¶ China.pdf] There are also technical difficulties . PDVSA could find other buyers. they are investing for strategic reasons . no matter ¶ where it is refined. ¶ however. ¶ which is low-grade sulfur-rich oil. rather than cash or government bonds.” Mark Jones.Can’t Solve Oil China can’t solve Venezuelan oil – no expertise or resources for crude oil. a thinktank specialising in the energy industry. some experts worry the manufacturing powerhouse is repeating old problems faced by Latin America. ¶ PDVSA has invested in refineries appropriate for such heavy crudes in Venezuela and. China’s main ¶ comparative advantage is its possible political commitment. is crucial.March 12 -www. ideology has very little to do with it. in the United States. Latin America expert at the Baker Institu te for Public Policy.73¶ Shipping petroleum to China. state-backed China Development Bank has agreed to lend Venezuela $46. once slammed the IMF for “practicing economic totalitarianism which kills not with bullets but with famines”.72 Chávez has ¶ voiced an interest in selling CITGO.aljazeera. And the government is running up debt despite high oil prices. including politicians and young bus inessmen like Sanchez. ¶ Transportation costs are high to China. Most ¶ of Venezuelan oil reserves are heavy crudes. according to a report from Tufts University. according to the University of Miami study. Securities ¶ and Exchange Commission. Much of ¶ the world’s refining capacity. "China's Relations With Latin America: Shared Gains. cannot easily generate gasoline and ¶ heating oil from such petroleum. especially if they are backed with black gold. Most existing refineries ¶ in China are small and away from southern coastal areas where demand is highest. Given the petroleum market. allowing countries to boost their economies purely through primary commodity exports. directly from the spigot. "Venezuela looks to China for economic boost" Al Jazeera -. “For China.to acquire natural resources. is expensive.¶ “My children and grandchildren will have to pay that debt. *Jorge.html] While China’s business deals with South America are welcomed by many. [Chris. ¶ Loans to Venezuela backed by the Chinese state and its development banks are being repaid in oil. moreover. turning to China makes sense. according to some observers. ¶ Carlos Andres Perez. told Al Jazeera.” Ideology.71 Building ¶ or upgrading refineries suitable for refining ¶ heavy crude in China would take time and ¶ be very expensive.5bn. Dominguez 6. ¶ “Venezuela has a policy goal of trying to limit its exposure to the international debt market. But it’s unclear whether deals from totalitarian China.org/PublicationFiles/china. Arsenault 13. ¶ through its CITGO subsidiary (purchased ¶ in 1986).June -www. Professor @ Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. the United States vetoed ¶ this deal. Web Producer.¶ Since 2008. Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -.¶ With international lenders demanding high interest rates on Venezuelan government debt.¶ Current oil deals are creating a “fundamentally unsustainable cycle of indebtedness and dependency”.” Sanchez said. but¶ they are low to the United States. will be any better for Venezuela’s long-term prospects.S. ¶ Chávez’s motivation may be to free PDVSA ¶ from having to provide audited annual ¶ financial statements to the U. enabling ¶ PDVSA to operate with greater secrecy. wondering if the billions in loansfor-oil deals could be “a double-edged sword ”. More than 90 percent of this debt is backed by sales contracts for crude. a former Venezuelan president. .thedialogue. China’s oil deals force dependency – guts the industry/economy. for Venezuela. It takes ¶ forty days for Venezuelan petroleum to ¶ reach China (seven days to reach the United ¶ States) because oil supertankers are too large ¶ to transit the Panama canal. and the Chavez government criticising the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank for their demands of privitisation and austerity. among ¶ others to the Chinese National Offshore ¶ Oil Company.

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***AFF: NET BENEFIT*** .

--.Defense --- .

George Washington University's David Shambaugh shows how China has spent billions of dollars on a charm offensive to increase its soft power.com/articles/2013/04/29/what_china_and_russia_don_t_get_about_soft_power?page=full] In his new book. Whereas a relatively significant ¶ portion of Latin Americans have some ability ¶ in English. So the government has taken to promoting ancient cultural icons whom it thinks might have global appeal. Not long after the last international athletes had departed. "What China and Russia Don't Get About Soft Power" Foreign Policy -.ndu. as well as India. a lack of understanding of each ¶ side by the other. have quickly turned stale. In today's world. Europe. but predominantly negative in the United States. those limits ¶ are not the same as the limits to U. he. the Shanghai Expo was a great success.16¶ Although Chinese-language programs are ¶ proliferating in Latin America.¶ One of the most significant barriers between the PRC and Latin America is ¶ language. Again in 2009. As with the ¶ sources of Chinese soft power.S. Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University. The best propaganda is not propaganda. ¶ from differing consumer preferences limiting ¶ the appeal of Latin American exports such as ¶ coffee and beef. but it was followed by the jailing of Nobel Peace Laureate Liu Xiaobo and screens were dominated by scenes of an empty chair at the Oslo ceremonies. and a pervasive sense of ¶ mistrust of the Chinese within Latin America ¶ generally. there is little international audience for brittle propaganda. Nye's view that soft power springs largely from individuals. As Pang Zhongying of Renmin University put it. soft ¶ power. the associated ¶ difficulty in learning each other’s culture and ¶ language. Chinese aid programs to Africa and Latin America are not limited by the institutional or human rights concerns that constrain Western aid.Issue 60 -www. too. China has earned a limited return on its investment .¶ Even China's soft-power triumphs.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis. [Joseph. Putin might likewise count on a soft power boost from the Sochi Olympics. China Goes Global. For all the efforts to turn Xinhua and China Central Television into competitors to CNN and the BBC. the private sector. "Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study" Joint Force Quarterly -. Ellis 11. Evan. to different attitudes toward ¶ authority in business and administrative dealings. and attention depends on credibility. but if he continues to repress dissent. although the number is growing. and civil society.CP Doesn’t Solve Soft Power Counterplan can’t solve soft power – aid not enough. such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Polls show that opinions of China's influence are positive in much of Africa and Latin America.April 29 -www. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. it highlights "a poverty of thought" among Chinese leaders. As the Economist noted about China.foreignpolicy.¶ China and Russia make the mistake of thinking that government is the main instrument of soft power. Government propaganda is rarely credible.¶ The cultural gap between China and ¶ Latin America touches upon many areas. the difficulty ¶ of and time required for learning Mandarin ¶ and the Chinese character set are a powerful ¶ impediment to the growth of ties between the ¶ two cultures. Japan and South Korea.pdf] Limits to Chinese Soft Power¶ The growth and exercise of soft power ¶ by the People’s Republic of China have limits ¶ that are important to recognize." But soft power doesn't work that way. which contribute to labor problems and ¶ other difficulties where the PRC has operated ¶ in Latin America. "the party has not bought into Mr. Chinese soft power fails in Latin America. Limits to Chinese soft power in Latin ¶ America principally arise from the significant ¶ gap between the two cultures. American political scientist and former Dean of the John F. ¶ and even fewer Chinese can communicate in ¶ Spanish. China's domestic crackdown on human rights activists undercut its soft power gains. [R. very few speak or read Chinese.¶ Compounding the language barrier ¶ is a relative lack of Chinese knowledge ¶ regarding Latin . is likely to step on his own message. other factors overwhelm. Nye 13. But for all its efforts. The Chinese style emphasizes high-profile gestures. information is not scarce but attention is.

despite the ¶ best Chinese businesspeople and ¶ politicians to reach out to Latin America. which currently ¶ has the world’s largest Latin America studies ¶ program—and truly multinational Chinese ¶ corporations—such as Hong Kong–based ¶ Hutchison Whampoa. Apart from major ¶ governmental institutes—such as the China ¶ Academy of Social Sciences. 757575 . and ¶ ZTE—the general knowledge of the region ¶ among Chinese businesspeople and government functionaries is limited. or conceal hidden agendas efforts of reflected even in Chinese ¶ communities. Latin ¶ American businesspeople commonly express ¶ misgivings. ¶ China Overseas Shipping. suggesting that the Chinese are ¶ aggressive and manipulative in business ¶ dealings. ¶ they are too frequently perceived as “not one ¶ of us”—a reality Such distance often translates into a ¶ persistent mistrust. despite deep historical ¶ roots in many Latin American cities such as ¶ Lima and Guayaquil. Huawei. which often remain only ¶ partly integrated.¶ behind ¶ their expressions of friendship and goodwill. even where both sides ¶ perceive benefits from cooperation.America. restricting ¶ the ability of the PRC to develop broad and ¶ sophisticated programs to advance its objectives in the region.¶ Perhaps most importantly. China Shipping.

Mark Sullivan. as China responds to calls from Brazil and diversifies its investments.S. "China's growing interest in Latin America" CRS Report for Congress -. Specialist in Latin American affairs.S. geographic proximity to Latin¶ America.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/] With both the U. but is consistent with the longstanding U.S.S. but that is not necessarily a bad thing. (U.17 They say¶ that the amounted to $255 billion in 2004. These fears may be economically based. The U. China presents an alternative to the United States. and China making gains in the region in different sectors.S. specialist in Asian Affairs.pdf] Other observers contend that Chinese activity in Latin America is one of relatively¶ benign expansion. there is seemingly room for each side to grow.www. trade in the region. "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the region" China Research Center -. but there are potentially harmful political consequences – primarily. cumulative direct investment in¶ Latin America in 2003 amounted to some $304 billion.S.18 They point out that U. while U. influence presents a major problem.S. They assert that China’s emerging¶ presence in the region is not a threat to the United Sates. and they see evidence that Chinese officials have been restrained¶ in their Latin American contacts. [Kerry. for the U. The fact that . staff @ CRC. trade and investment in Latin¶ America dwarfs that of China’s involvement in the region.¶ Adherents of this view maintain that the United States should avoid overreacting to¶ China’s economic initiatives in Latin America.20 Latin American investment isn’t zero sum. there is increasing worry that China is going to outmatch U.S. confined inroads China has made into the region are marginal compared with longstanding U.S.S. economic linkages.Vol 10 No 1 -. which implies that.No Link: Not Zero Sum US investment inevitable – engagement not zero sum. policy of integrating China into the world system. [Michael.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/crs/rs22119.S. providing Latin America with a quasi-world power as an alternative to the U.af. trade with Latin America is not a zero-sum game.19) Morever. Cerna 11.chinacenter.April 20 -. observers contend¶ that the future growth potential of Chinese investment and trade will always be¶ constrained by the economic advantages conferred by U. Since the Monroe Doctrine. imports from Latin¶ America to seeking out trade and investment opportunities.S. Dumbaugh et al 5.au. they indicate that migration patterns to the United States from¶ Central and South American countries have given the United States greater cultural ties¶ and longerterm economic importance to the region than China could ever have. in fact. Furthermore. is much more diversified than China at the moment and therefore does not need to enter into direct competition .www. Latin America has been considered a secure sphere of influence China presents a less democratic alternative to U. However.

the hopes for ¶ further gains are asymmetrical and the relative leverage to shape the future distribution ¶ of gains is uneven as well. Latin America will most likely remain a minor ¶ player in the prospects for China’s economic growth while China has already become ¶ a major factor for Latin America’s economic growth. The year 2004 was the best ¶ for Latin America’s gross domestic product ¶ growth since the East Asian ¶ financial crisis ¶ of 1997.18 The asymmetry in both ¶ hopes and leverage is an issue for the future. Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -.June -www.thedialogue. "China's Relations With Latin America: Shared Gains. *Jorge.org/PublicationFiles/china.No Impact: LA Not Key to China Econ China’s economy not dependent on Latin America. Dominguez 6. A major reason for Latin America’s ¶ growth in 2004 was China’s demand for ¶ commodities. Professor @ Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. Moreover. which lifted prices and output ¶ to set most Latin America’s economies back ¶ on a growth path. China has disproportionate leverage over Latin America in ¶ trade negotiations because the latter depend ¶ much more on the former . if the gains are shared.pdf] Yet. .

--.China Influence Bad -- .

using it in their own interests.China Bad: Hegemony Close LA-China relations boxes out the US – decks heg. of course. holds many difficulties and threats.org/PublicationFiles/china. has put it as follows: The rapid development of China-Latin ¶ America relations has not yet posed ¶ a security threat to the United States. http://eng. “Is a New Cold War Imminent. it can do much damage to both parties and international security. such a move may divide Ukraine and provoke mass disorders there. attributes left-wing election victories in Brazil. a scholar at the ¶ CASS. if Kosovo secedes from Serbia. July-September 2007. either. Chinese academics are ¶ acutely aware that the United States considers Latin America to be its backyard ¶ (houyuan). and would consolidate its influence in Central and South Asia and the Persian Gulf region. Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -. Other “centers of power” would immediately derive benefit from the growing Russia-West standoff. corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Professor @ Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. [Alexei. Or. a delicate triangular ¶ problem. The probability of nuclear weapons being . India. also from the CASS. *Jorge.globalaffairs. this may provoke similar processes in Abkhazia. ¶ then Latin American officials may—in classic neorealist fashion—seek Chinese support ¶ to provide a “soft” balance U. existing objectively at various levels and interdependently. if Latin American states look at ¶ the world strategically from the perspective ¶ of self-interest.S. Congress). member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. While Russia and the West continue to argue with each other.” ¶ Xu Shicheng. Dominguez 6.S. if be a cause for complacency. Jiang Shixue. And. For example. as Chinese academics claim. This could make the stage for nuclear confrontation even tenser. ¶ but China is currently in the process ¶ of becoming a political competitor in ¶ America’s own backyard … some Latin ¶ American countries may use China to ¶ challenge American hegemony . Washington may respond by deploying similar missiles in Europe.ru/numbers/20/1130.35 Heg decline causes nuclear war. if the Russia-NATO confrontation persists. China would receive an opportunity to occupy even more advantageous positions in its economic and political relations with Russia. thus making it difficult for Russia and the West to refrain from interfering.html] However.June -www. ¶ Venezuela. "China's Relations With Latin America: Shared Gains. two countries that are supported by NATO. Arbatov 7. Meanwhile. states that are capable of developing nuclear weapons of their own will jump at the opportunity. ¶ dominance in the region. and Japan.S. member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and some exalted regimes in Latin America would hardly miss their chance.S.” Russia in Global Affairs. and involve Russia in armed conflicts with Georgia and Moldova. influence ¶ in Latin America. 2. A multipolar world that is not moving toward nuclear disarmament is a world of an expanding Nuclear Club. Pakistan. In the event of Kiev’s sudden admission into the North Atlantic Alliance (recently sanctioned by the U.pdf] There is.-Chinese relations. Another flash point involves Ukraine.34¶ Jiang Shixue also avers that China and Latin ¶ America share interests in “building a new ¶ economic order and opposing hegemonism. the low probability of a new Cold War and the not in reality) cannot collapse of American unipolarity (as a political doctrine. which would dramatically increase the vulnerability of Russia’s strategic forces and their control and warning systems.S. To the extent that China may assist ¶ Latin America to combat “hegemonism. Multipolarity. No. U. South Ossetia and Transdniestria. alternatively. and Uruguay to Latin American ¶ anger at neoliberal economic policies and ¶ a desire to take a firmer stance against U.thedialogue. the U.” ¶ problems may develop in U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in Central and Eastern Europe may cause Russia to withdraw from the INF Treaty and resume programs for producing intermediate-range missiles.

this threat represents the reverse side of globalization.used in a regional conflict will increase significantly . there is the chance that an adventuresome regime will initiate a missile launch against territories or space satellites of one or several great powers with a view to triggering an exchange of nuclear strikes between them. and other countries. The situation in Afghanistan. In a worst-case scenario.S.. Central Asia. Another high probability is the threat of a terrorist act with the use of a nuclear device in one or several major capitals of the world. the Middle East. . Russia. the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. and North and East Africa will further destabilize. The surviving disarmament treaties (the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The wave of militant separatism. and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty) will collapse. the U. International Islamic extremism and terrorism will increase dramatically. trans-border crime and terrorism will also infiltrate Western Europe.

Argentina. a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. Argentina. Cuba and Venezuela. Chinese technicians familiarize themselves with new digital reconnaissance equipment that might someday enable them to stalk and destroy U.'' says William Triplett II.¶ Even more intriguing is Chinese involvement in a space project in Brazil that has already contributed to Beijing's . during his 12-day tour of Latin America.S. policy as ``hegemonism and power politics. ambassador to Beijing. Bussey and Garvin 1. ``Multipolarization.S.a relic of Cold War thinking.''¶ Jiang.¶ ¶ ¶ In computerized listening posts in Cuba. world peace and stability. similar to the American F-16. with former President Bill Clinton labeling the Chinese our ``strategic partners. Uruguay and Venezuela. it has attracted little public attention.org/cuba/china-influence. their high-level documents show that they are not friendly to us.¶ ¶ ¶ From petroleum sites in Venezuela.'' says Fisher.'' and Beijing recently announced a 17 percent boost in military spending.'' Jiang said in Chile and repeated throughout his trip. investment and trade ties surge.S. because so many of these Latin officers have been trained in the United States. including the signals from American military satellites. analysts warn.¶ As part of its expanding ties with the region. Brazil.'' Many analysts believe that the Chinese hope to eventually sell their J-10 fighter-bomber. Uruguay. China and Japan.and Venezuela.''¶ A Chinese military ``White Paper.'' says James Lilly. telecommunications. he called a partnership with the largest Latin American country ``a new type of state relations based on mutual respect. reporters. leadership in the region. investment in China surged and the country became a major trading partner. Chinese experts in electronic espionage scoop up signals from U.6 billion. where the populist ex-paratrooper president. Dana Rohrabacher. Glenn. where nearly $1 billion in copper was loaded for shipping to China in 2000. Beijing has established direct military-to-military relations in Peru.¶ ``That's a foot in the door. The Chinese ``are also able to gain valuable insight into the American military.S.'' published at the end of last year.'' adding that the relationship is ``not directed against any third party.¶ ¶ ¶ At airfields in Venezuela.¶ Cuba is permitting Beijing to set up an electronic espionage shop near the old Soviet listening post at Lourdes.throughout South America. ``Then maybe you buy some trainers from them. military satellites and sift through the contents of millions of American telephone conversations for intelligence. intelligence satellites. The Venezuelans have already purchased several small transport planes. China watchers warn.¶ The notion of global rivalries might seem faintly anachronistic to many Americans -. They consider us enemies.'' The other poles of influence could be Europe. China is making its mark: ¶ ¶ ¶ At tracking stations in Brazil. co-author of Red Dragon Rising: Communist China's Military Threat to America.'' a pointed reference to the United States.htm] Quietly but persistently. ``They aren't romantic about us. may eventually pose a more serious challenge to Washington. which ends Tuesday.¶ While Americans were preoccupied with the Chinese government's detention of a U.¶ ``The strategic equation in our own hemisphere is changing like a cancer that you can't feel. he repeatedly attacked what he called Washington's attempt to impose a ``uni-polar'' scheme on the globe. [Jane. ``[is] conducive to the establishment of a new international political and economic order.¶ In Brasilia Wednesday.¶ Instead.'' says Al Santoli.¶ Not only have the contacts enhanced China's influence. to ports along the Chilean coast.¶ Across the region. and the facts are that they run massive intelligence operations against us. in dozens of locations from Chile to Cuba. senior foreign policy advisor for Rep.S. China has been slowly but surely increasing its contacts with militaries throughout South America.S. Chinese military officers instruct pilots in the fine points of new transport planes that the government of President Hugo Chávez has purchased from Beijing.¶ The best receptions for Chinese military overtures have been in Cuba -.S. but there's been a direct intelligence payoff. reaching a historic high of $12. China many military and intelligence analysts say is is flexing its muscles in the early stages of what a plan to challenge the United States politically and strategically in its own backyard. From this toehold. you might as well buy the aircraft. ``Don't be romantic about China.¶ Venezuela has even purchased military aircraft from China. ¶ and once you have the trainers. Chinese President Jiang Zemin last week launched a 12-day tour of Latin America to cement military and trade ties. equality and reciprocity. where the Chinese can pilfer intelligence from U. China's trade with Latin America jumped more than 50 percent from 1999 to 2000. too. In the 1990s.Ext: China Influence Hurts US Heg Chinese engagement in Latin America is a move to constrain US heg.still seeking a replacement for its old Soviet patrons -. China hopes to expand military sales -. a California Republican. where Chinese oil executives are drilling exploratory wells. a former U.latinamericanstudies. But that doesn't make it any less real. Hugo Chávez.'' U. described U.¶ ``I'm not going to tell you that they're going to put missiles in Panama and threaten Miami. pursues a relentlessly antiAmerican policy. Jiang offered China's vision of a new world order.¶ SERIOUS CHALLENGE¶ But Chinese activities in the Western Hemisphere.¶ Because China's initiative in the Western Hemisphere has involved tiny nibbles rather than a single bold thrust.S. During his trip through Chile. air crew half a world away. and Chávez himself last month witnessed the tryout of two new training models of warplanes. has been explicit about his country's intent to challenge U. a Washington think tank that follows China closely. in Latin America. You have to seek truth from facts.¶ Jiang dismisses concerns that deepening Sino-Latin American ties are aimed at challenging Washington's dominance. they make open statements against us.April 15 -www.eventually including jet fighters -. though more subtle.¶ 'CONSIDERED ENEMIES'¶ But Beijing doesn't see it that way. "China exerting regional influence" Miami Herald -. Chile. ``This is a much more long-term thing we're talking about.'' says Rick Fisher. the analysts say.

or whether promised Chinese investment will ¶ actually occur. China is also rapidly ¶ transforming itself from an underdeveloped country to a large and dynamic modern ¶ economy. It may eventually lead to the Chinese having permanent access to Brazilian satellite tracking facilities -. and not whether engagement with China ¶ will actually be beneficial to the country.ambitious military satellite program. with the United States. PhD in Political Science. or an ally. Brazil offered real-time digital photo technology that was new to the Chinese. China had launched a military satellite closely modeled on CIBERS-1. and with ¶ the rest of the popular imagination and the world.¶ MILITARY SATELLITE¶ But within a year. you have to have a comprehensive picture of its long-term flight path. and intelligence experts say the Chinese are continuing to improve the optical technology all the time. Ellis 6.a major step toward Beijing developing a killer satellite that could shoot down American satellites.¶ Now China has announced plans to launch a constellation of eight reconnaissance satellites. China continues its joint space project with Brazil. with an emphasis on Latin American security issues.80 for example.¶ That array of satellites would allow the Chinese to look at any spot on the earth twice a day. or CIBERS-1. Inc. politically. ¶ For Latin American populists such as Hugo Chavez or Evo Morales. The symbolic existence of China as a market. it cannot really see anything smaller than 20 meters -. creates expectations in the region that cause its elites ¶ to behave differently in their dealings with each other. ``Access to These are the type of military links that also bind.edu/hemispheric-policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306..S. satellites. it monitors environmental factors like vegetation and temperature. China has become ¶ a substitute for the loss of the Soviet Union.that is. and more to do with its unique ¶ combination of attributes. and culturally dominated by the United ¶ States—a perception that strengthened following the disappearance of the Soviet as a ¶ counterweight to the United States. greatly enhancing its military capabilities.March 3 -.www6. or a ¶ source of investment.pdf] In the short term.'' says Fisher. and ¶ more defiantly against the United States than would have otherwise been the case. Brazilian tracking facilities would enable them to do this with U.¶ Meanwhile. China represents an alternative in a part of the world that has long ¶ perceived itself as economically. The nations of Latin America can identify with China’s underdeveloped roots.78¶ The degree to which China captures the imagination of Latin America has less to do ¶ with the reality of trade and investment flows. ¶ For Latin America.miami. the China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite. the most profound impact of China on Latin America is its symbolic ¶ impact on the calculations of the region’s political actors. It is important to recognize that this empowerment flows primarily from the ¶ symbolism and expectations raised by China. empowering them to act more boldly. ¶ while being inspired by the magnitude and rapidity of its transformation. [Evan.¶ ``In order to shoot down an enemy satellite.¶ The fruit of their collaboration. and--at least superficially in its rhetoric--a proponent of an ideological ¶ alternative to neoliberal capitalism.CIBERS-1 is useless for military purposes. Add to them growing trade. The oftenmentioned size of the Chinese population and the “otherness” of its culture further add ¶ to the almost romantic appeal that China engenders. he is re-creating a distorted version of the tactic adopted by thirdworld leaders during the cold war. half of them equipped with conventional photographic capabilities. half with radar-imaging technology capable of seeing through cloud covers. China jumped in. seems innocent enough. Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton. Launched in October 1999. With a resolution of 20 meters -. The Chinese supplied rocket-launching technology that Brazil lacked. Like the role played by the former Soviet Union. attempting to playing off one superpower against the ¶ other. But unlike the Soviet Union. "The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America: Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region" BoozAllen -.79¶ When Chávez threatens to sell Venezuela’s oil to China instead of to the United States.''¶ Chinese influence emboldens Latin American leftists – constrains US heg. China is ¶ increasingly a political counterweight to the United States in the global political and ¶ economic system.81 . The military satellite is believed capable of spotting objects as small as five meters.¶ When the United States shied away from helping Brazil's space program out of fears that the country might be developing a nuclear capacity. investment and economic exchanges that also build China's influence and pressure points in a region anxious for increased global economic ties and respect on the world stage.

In September 2005.heritage.www. Mexican President Vicente Fox made it clear to visiting President Hu Jintao that dumping electronics and cloth-ing was unacceptable. Chinese goods are made by laborers who work for one-third of the wages of Latin American counterparts and who tolerate worse working conditions. Brazil. For every dollar that Mexico makes from exports to China. which contributes to trade deficits. Latin American lead-ers who sign trade and investment deals with the PRC have noticed that China's exports are more affordable than their own goods. "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America" Heritage Foundation -October 24 -. and Mexico have signaled their unease about trade with such a hot com-petitor. Officials in Argentina. Johnson 5. the PRC makes $31 from exports to Mexico.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america] However. Senior Policy Analyst. closer ties to China also have signifi-cant disadvantages for both Latin America and the United States:¶ Growing trade deficits .[9] .China Bad: Trade Deficits China engagement spurs Latin American trade deficits. [Stephen.

While countries like Chile and Brazil have moved beyond raw materials exports. social inequality and political instability could depress U. Income gaps between the rich and poor may widen as a result. Senior Policy Analyst.S. Johnson 5.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america] Disinterest in economic reform . Some 44 percent of Latin Americans already live below the poverty line. Some ana-lysts believe that the commodities-based trade model used by China will undermine the progress that Latin America has made toward industrialization. .heritage.www. [Stephen. If these countries fail to adopt reforms.China Bad: LA Economic Reforms Chinese influence prevents Latin American economic reforms. exports to the region and increase migration problems. More-over. others with powerful presidents or rul-ing oligarchies may be tempted to fall back on plantation economics. such narrowly focused economies are vul-nerable to downturns in commodity prices. "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America" Heritage Foundation -October 24 -.

While it is ¶ possible that Latin American manufacturing jobs lost to Chinese competition will be ¶ compensated by growth in the primary products sectors. As suggested by the previous paragraphs.pdf] Changes to Economic Structure. Inc. [Evan. Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton.www6. since sectors such as mining are relatively more capital intensive ¶ than labor intensive. Chinese ¶ engagement with Latin America is likely to alter the structures of Latin American ¶ economies in general--and in the process. Moreover.98 The political systems. It is not clear.edu/hemispheric-policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306. it is not clear that the number of jobs created by expanded primary ¶ product exports will compensate for the number of jobs lost in manufacturing. Ellis 6. for example. the sociopolitical impact of ¶ such a change is likely to be traumatic. will readily ¶ relocate to remote areas to work lower-paying jobs in the mines or in the agricultural ¶ sector.. and a stepping stone ¶ for economic diversification. for example.March 3 -. that workers ¶ unemployed because of the closure of a factory in the city. a conduit of labor unrest. . it displaces workers from the very sectors which ¶ have historically served as the cornerstone for the middle class. PhD in Political Science. put serious pressures on Latin American hurts the sales of Latin ¶ American manufacturers. and when displaced.Ext: LA Economic Reforms Chinese engagement discourages Latin American economic reforms. for example.miami. "The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America: Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region" BoozAllen -. To the extent that Chinese competition manufacturing sector has also traditionally been the ¶ source of labor organization. with an emphasis on Latin American security issues.

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***MISC*** .

utoronto. these ¶ figures have plunged to about 18 per cent and ¶ under 12 per cent. ¶ sectors that create many jobs. are more labour ¶ intensive. employment and the weight of ¶ manufacturing in Latin America’s output rose ¶ over most of the 20th century. and had ¶ reached around 25 per cent and 16 per cent ¶ respectively by 1980. So the net effect ¶ on the demand for labour can be negative even ¶ as total GDP is rising. gas and coal production ¶ creates virtually no jobs but their export ¶ discourages agriculture and manufacturing. "Dutch Disease: A Threat to Latin America's Current Growth Sput?" FOCAL Point -. produces ¶ “externalities” in economic jargon).Dutch Disease Turns Energy Affs Specifically turns energy affs. with a research focus on the economics of Latin America. Thus oil. or whose growth is ¶ discouraged by the boom.e. [Albert. When ¶ they shrink. ¶ Historically.economics. Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Toronto. the economy’s future growth ¶ potential is impaired .. Many ¶ economists feel that manufacturing capital goods) play sectors.March -www. .pdf] A different sort of damage is done if one or ¶ more of the sectors that shrink have a special ¶ role in the overall growth process.ca/gindart/Dutch%20Disease2%20-%20W2010. Berry 8. whether permanently or ¶ temporarily. respectively. as ¶ is often the case. the production of the ¶ booming exportable creates very few jobs and ¶ the sectors that shrink. But since then. (or ¶ some key types of manufacturing such as the ¶ production of that role ¶ because their presence helps to increase ¶ productivity in other sectors (i. Dutch disease can also hurt overall ¶ employment and income distribution when. especially ¶ during its high-growth third quarter.

High oil prices.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351. Venezuela has been dependent on crude exports.DD vs.” Sanchez has seen the troubles faced by Venezuelan exporters first-hand. “I don’t think it’s feasible to create alternative exports in the next two years. "Venezuela looks to China for economic boost" Al Jazeera -.” he said. It has become so difficult to produce in Venezuela." .a phenomenon economists call the “Dutch disease”. “It has become so difficult to produce in Venezuela. demographics is playing an increasingly important role. and this dependence has deepened since 1998 when Chavez was first elected. V Oil Aff Focus on oil guarantees dutch disease.aljazeera. [Chris. Arsenault 13. The Dutch disease factor is just too high. now he is just trying to import them from China.Alvaro Ruiz Sanchez In recent decades. “I have a client who used to manufacture school uniforms here. “The government that is elected in April will just have to focus on managing the oil exports it gets. Petroleum exports tend to raise the value of a country’s currency." While economics drives the China relationship.March 12 -www. now he is just trying to import them from China. . Web Producer. coupled with the government’s desire to increase social spending at home and rigid currency controls.html] Dependency "I have a client who used to manufacture school uniforms here.” Venezuelan economist David Pinto told Al Jazeera. have made life even more difficult for Venezuelan businesses. making other exports less competitive .

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