China Disadvantage

Negative

Shells

?he 'ew Eor* ?imes adds that :ei@in has lent %cuador . Chile and Cene. <ashin ton needs to relearn an o)"ious truthIthat China1s rulers do not share America1s "aluesIand needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that conte9t. 5 ?here is ood and )ad to :ei@in 1s increased interest and in"estment in the <estern Femisphere. China is focusin on onshore oil e9traction in Cu)a. many of them “ uilty” of political dissent or reli ious acti"ity2 democracy acti"ists are rounded up and imprisoned2 freedom of speech and reli ion and assem)ly do not e9ist2 and internal security forces are i"en shoot0to0*ill orders in dealin with unarmed citi.>. &ndeed.” http://www.uelan oil reser"es2 . :ut notin that the Con ressional +esearch Ser"ice has reported concerns in <ashin ton that Fu o Cha"e. ener y and real0estate deals with :ra.il e9pects to pump /. +ussian. a Chinese0)uilt oil ri arri"ed in Cu)a to )e in drillin in Cu)a1s swath of the 8ulf of $e9ico.uela. &t1s worth de"elopment in the economic. that Chinese defense firms “are li*ely to le"era e their e9perience and a rowin trac* record for their oods to e9pand their mar*et share in the re ion. &n"estment fuels de"elopment.)illion to )uild a hydroelectric plant..= million )arrels per day )y . $alaysian and 'orwe ian firms will use the ri to e9tract Cu)an oil. China is engaged in a fl rr" of investing and spending in Latin America%) &n Costa +ica.5 ?he 7FA study adds that China has 0an important and gro#ing presence in the region’s military institutions. and the southern flan* of the Gnited States is e9posed to a ran e of new security challen es. 7amaica. with the secondary conseLuence )ein that those purchasers will )ecome more reliant on the associated Chinese lo istics. much of this is a function of China1s desire to secure oil mar*ets.Ior a)out -- . :ut there1s more at wor* here than China1s thirst for oil. trade. China is fundin a . “Crisis in the America's.-D.340million soccer stadium2 )ac*in infrastructure and telecommunications impro"ements2 and pourin millions into a new police academy. Bi*e a lo)al chess match.S. . Cu)a./.40)illion commitment to de"elop Cene.” accordin to Mirector of 'ational &ntelli ence 7ames Clapper.il1s main oil company when it sou ht financin for its massi"e drillin plans. 5 'ew offshore disco"eries will soon catapult :ra. +ecall that in China.. China1s state0run oil and )an*in iants ha"e in*ed technolo y0transfer..)illion for a slice of :ra.uela and :oli"ia. “send officers to professional military education courses in the 6+C. )ut as reason “to launch its harshest crac*down on dissent in at least a decade.S. nuclear threats in &ran and 'orth (orea. 5 nations.” &n %cuador.3 )illion in loans to Cene. ominously. there will )e Chinese assem)ly facilities.-> )illion to help Ar entina moderni. as the <ashin ton ?imes reports. Cene.il into a top0fi"e lo)al oil producer.S. 5 First. maintenance. there will )e dedicated )erths to ship Colom)ian coal out)ound to China.uela pumps an a"era e of -. A study in 7oint Force Auarterly (7FA# adds that :ei@in plun*ed down . and much of Batin America is happily acceleratin China’s riches come #ith strings%) For instance. Southern Command conceded as early as . mi ht try to supplant his G..1NC – China Econ China’s expanding into Latin America---US infl ence is !e" to cro#d them o t Do#d 1$ (Alan. China is pro)in Batin America and sendin a messa e that @ust as <ashin ton has trade and military ties in China1s nei h)orhood.e its rail system2 . :ra. And that ma*es all the difference when it comes to forei n and defense policy. includin $e9ico.hat -rings s to the sec rit" dimension of China’s chec!-oo! diplomac" in the <estern Femisphere. U%S% polic"ma!ers have neglected a gro#ing challenge right here in the &estern 'emisphere( the expanding infl ence and reach of China%) %yein ener y resources to *eep its economy hummin . 8i"en that Cene.ens. as the ?imes details.5 Jfficials with the G..” $ost Batin American percent of net oil importsIthe results would )e de"astatin for the G. 5 &n mid07anuary.uela2 a .S. For now.>>D that . 5 :ei@in has no respect for human ri hts.” ?he 7FA report concludes. As +ea an the U%S% m st stop ta!ing the &estern 'emisphere for granted2 and instead must reengage in its o#n neigh-orhood economicall"2 politically and militarily%) . primacy in the re ionIa challen e that must )e answered. 5 ?o )e sure. pourin . 5 &n Colom)ia.H million )arrels of oil per day for the G. :ei@in has )e un to sell “sophisticated hardwareKsuch as radars and (03 and $A0D> aircraft. the ends always @ustify the means in :ei@in . an estimated 40H million people are rottin away in lao ai sla"e0la)or camps.” 5 6ut it all to ether.S. :ei@in "iewed the Ara) Sprin uprisin s not as an impetus for political reform.ei/ing had 0approached ever" co ntr" in o r area of responsi-ilit"1 and provided militar" exchanges2 aid or training to %cuador. lo istics operations and distri)ution plants2 and on the 6acific side. 5 ?he 7FA study re"eals @ust how deep and wide :ei@in is spreadin its financial influence in Batin America: . and trainin infrastructures that support those products.ascfusa.)illion to purchase Ar entina1s petroleum company outri ht.il.>.or /content!pa es/"iew/crisisinamericas# Focused on military operations in the $iddle %ast. “?here is no true international security without respect for human ri hts. :oli"ia. China is developing trade and militar" ties in America’s neigh-orhood %) ?his is a direct challen e to G. At either terminus.. +euters reports that Spanish. 6lus. there will )e Chinese ports2 in )etween. in e9chan e for Chinese de"elopment funds and loans. 5 &n short.” 5 Second.>>> )arrels per day to one million )arrels per day. <ith some 43 )illion )arrels of reco"era)le oil off its coast.4. *ene+ ela agreed to increase oil shipments to China from 43>./ )illion to de"elop 6eru"ian mines2 .-> )illion into the pro@ect.il1s "ast offshore oil fields. technolo y and infrastructure spheres. and the lo)al threat of terrorism.-.4.hat means no more allo#ing trade dealsIand the partners countin on themIto lang ish% 6lans counseled durin the Cold <ar. chemical.)illion for %cuadoran oil2 .ilian oil. mar*et with China. China came to the rescue of :ra./0)illion up rade of the country1s oil refinery2 )an*rollin an . Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation. and China has used enerous loans to position itself as the prime )eneficiary of :ra. China is plannin a massi"e “dry canal” to lin* the country1s 6acific and Atlantic coasts )y rail.

4.-st: ?here is room for only one reat power in the <estern Femisphere. American Forei n 6olicy &nterests. don’t thin! that’s in o r interest. one wonders how lon that reser"oir of respect will last. G. 7. the re ion remains an important source of ener y and other commodities for the Gnited States as well as a ma@or mar*et for American oods and ser"ices.>->.>--.ies 4ham 18 NMr.S% polic"ma!ers need to ac!no#ledge that America’s Latin American and Cari--ean neigh-ors matter to the United States not only for its traditional security interest in limiting the infl ence of o tside po#ers in the Americas )ut also )ecause All of this led to Secretary of State Fillary +odham meetin at the State Mepartment last year that she lo)ali. QQ& mean the" are .H percent of G. <hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of the re ion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challen es impose upon G.5 &n short. Cene. while si9 <estern Femisphere am)assadorial posts (Gru uay. military power.trade-expansion agreements with 6anama #ere left in lim-o for years.S. ?he and Colom)ia political wran lin in <ashin ton. 4erhaps it’s time to do the same in Latin America% &e sho ld remem-er that man" Latin American co ntriesIfrom $e9ico and 6anama to Colom)ia and ChileI-order the 4acific% 8i"en :ei@in 1s actions2 it ma!es sense to -ring these Latin American partners on the 6acific +im into the alliance of alliances that is already sta)ili. Second. shaped its past113D the fact that the region is 99shaping its f t re far more than it o ght to -e #elcomed% Engaging Latin American governments and peoples on mutually a reea)le terms is )y far a more s staina-le fo ndation for #hat o ght to -e the goals of U%S% polic" in the region( the sta)ility.5 +een a ement also means re"itali. mi ht American interests )e sec red and2 indeed2 advancedR First. this “$onroe Moctrine .in the Asia06acific re ion. China1s Strate ic 6enetration of Batin America: <hat &t $eans for G.ei/ing that the United States welcomes China1s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas )ut disco rages an" claims of control7implied or explicit7-" China over territories2 properties or facilities in the Americas% &n addition. Fence the re ion. ?hird. A ood model to follow mi ht )e what1s happenin in China1s )ac*yard. what it was true in the -=th and . <ashin ton should ma*e it clear to :ei@in that the American people would loo* unfa"ora)ly upon the sale of Chinese arms or the )asin of Chinese ad"isors or military assets in the <estern Femisphere. &nterests.ation has accelerated the momentum for the increased inte ration of all of the nations in the <estern Femisphere and re ional cooperation is reLuired to meet a whole host of transnational challen es ran in from spurrin economic rowth to ille al it is in the interests of the United States to rene# relations with the countries to its south )y de"elopin and artic lating a comprehensi"e strate y that clearl" p ts to rest the legac" of 99-enign neglect’’ of immi ration to narcotics traffic*in to en"ironmental issues. the Gnited States should pri"ile e )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid.S. the State Mepartment position focused on the <estern Femisphere has )een staffed )y an interim for nearly a year. :ut with the Gnited States in the midst of massi"e military retrenchment.. .uela. despite China1s efforts to secure access to Batin America1s natural resources and mar*ets. ?he 7oint Forces Command noted in . . %l Sal"ador.S. the G.in security ties.he plan limits China’s infl ence in the region – restarts U%S% – Latin .>>3 that China has “a deep respect for G.11 She went on to add.: 4D4O43-P Clinton tellin an audience of Forei n Ser"ice officers durin a town hall fo nd the gains that China #as ma!ing in Latin America 99: ite dist r-ing. ?o deter China and pre"ent an accidental war.>th centuries must remain true in the . ultimately.one ha"e faltered and foundered.5 Finally.” <e cannot o"erstate how important this has )een to *eepin the peace. policy. prosperity of the nations of the <estern Femisphere. security. and.. all of this needs to -e part of a revived 5onroe Doctrine %) 6oc sing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas. 6eter 6ham is senior "ice president of the 'ational Committee on American Forei n 6olicy and the incomin editor of American Forei n 6olicy &nterests.5 3eengagement means reviving U%S% diplomac"% ?he <all Street 7ournal reports that due to for a hemispheric free trade .S. rather than lament the passin of an era when the Gnited States unilaterally dictated the terms of en a ement with its Batin American nei h)ors.ilding ver" strong economic and political connections%%%% .5 +een a ement means re"ersin plans to slash defense spendin .113H 'o# then2 in the face of China’s gro#ing commercial and political relationships across the re ion.>” #o ld ma!e it clear to . 'icara ua and :ar)ados# remain empty. is re"i"in its security partnerships all across the Asia06acific re ion. A)out . %cuador. it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest e9pectations and )etter tar etin of a"aila)le resources.S. ener y imports come from Central and South American . )efore 6resident J)ama finally si ned them into law in . &n its en a ements with its Batin American and Cari))ean nei h)ors.

. such as *idnappin .-/ China has also used its economic wei ht to help secure ma@or pro@ects on preferential terms. Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity. At times.il.uela. automo)iles.>>D. and Ar entina. Bater. the %cuadorian o"ernment pu)licly and )itterly )ro*e off ne otiations with the Chinese. crime. while the 'orth American Free ?rade A reement that came into force under 6resident :ill Clinton was lon standin familiarity. and related pro)lems. &n another deal. to resolve s ch pro-lems #hen .ards common to the re ion. resistance -" or ani.pdfP Latin American mar!ets are )ecomin increasin ly val a-le for Chinese companies )ecause the" allo# the 43C to e9pand and diversif" its export -ase at a time #hen economic gro#th is slo#ing in traditional mar!ets such as the Gnited States and %urope. ethnic Chinese shop*eepers in Calencia and $aracay. as China )ecomes more in"ol"ed in )usiness and other operations in Batin America.. undermined )y last year1s enactment of a measure cancelin a pilot pro ram that allowed carefully screened $e9ican truc*s to carry car o in the Gnited States. the ChU"e. &t has specifically protested measures )y the Ar entine and $e9ican o"ernments that it has seen as arose re ardin a Chinese company. causin almost . computers and telecommunication eLuipment. http://www. :ra.Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America. and protests in Jrellana related to a la)or dispute with the Chinese company 6etroriental in . )ecame the focus of "iolent protests associated with the Cene. -st Luarter . months later after failin to find satisfactory alternati"es. protests. 6rotection of Chinese &n"estments in and ?rade Flows from the +e ion. )ut as part of the deal. appliances. and Costa +ica. it was said that the prior Chinese am)assador to Cene. only to return to the )ar ainin ta)le .4>> million to start a re ional airline. China )e an enforcin a lon standin phytosanitary re ulation. authori.3S ?hus the administration m st recommit itself to )uildin on those solid foundations to reinforce and expand America’s economic ties #ith its neigh-ors to the so th% &n his . and penetratin mar*ets in Batin American countries with the 43C has often had to overcome esta-lished interests in those nations.S )illion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair Fydroelectric plant in %cuador. o"ernment a reed. &n Cene. the a)ility of the Chinese )idder SinoFidro to self0finance 3H percent of the pro@ects throu h Chinese )an*s helped it to wor* around the traditional %cuadorian reLuirement that the pro@ect ha"e a local partner.. %"an. ?he hei htened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern @un le re ion of %cuador. as informal retaliation. the hopes of access to Chinese mar*ets and in"estments amon *ey roups of . an increasin num)er of its nationals will )e "ulnera)le to ha. tariffs on :ra. especially since the <orld ?rade Jr ani. )illion in lost soy e9ports and other dama es for Ar entina.33 Eet a-sent proactive &hite 'o se leadership.uelan people.uela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company.uelan recall referendum.ilian ethanol and to settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween <ashin ton and :rasilia. &n doin so.sinesses still have a comparative advantage over overseas competitors in the mar*ets of the <estern Femisphere. ?han*s to pro9imity as well as U%S% . As with the Gnited States and other <estern countries.ed and often politically well0connected was one of the few people in the country who could call 6resident ChU"e. protectionist: and. more than the %uropean Gnion.ation has already ruled the su)sidies ille al and. &n the course of ne otiatin a .uela .edu/press/li)/ima es/@fL0 D>/7FAD>!3H0=-!%llis.S. Then ?uo. 6resident J)ama sin led out Colom)ia and 6anama as QQ*ey partners11 with which he promised to stren then trade relations. the 6+C loaned Cene.S.>>/. &n Cene. includin the ta*eo"er of an oilfield operated )y the Andes petroleum consortium in ?arapoa in 'o"em)er .>--. 6eru. as #ell as its infl ence #ith governments of the region. As such incidents increase 2 the 43C #ill need to rel" increasingl" on a com)ination of good#ill and fear to deter action a ainst its personnel. Cene.uela. &n .>>> consumer appliances from the Chinese manufacturer Faier for resale to the Cene.> percent of all of G.sinesspeople and government officials in those nations have pla"ed a !e" role in the political #ill to overcome the resistance.>-> State of the Gnion address.ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions a ainst American products. to accept half of the .countries and the re ion )uys . in a rare mo"e.>>S that resulted in the death of more than 4H police officers and forced the declaration of a national state of emer ency. e9istin manufacturin sectors such as $e9ico. and to use part of that currency to )uy . the free trade agreements with those two countries have still not -een ratified.he region has also pro"en an effective mar!et for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated.-. has )een associated with a series of pro)lems. for e9ample. . higher val e added prod cts in sectors seen as strate ic.3= Chinese infl ence in the region !e" to the glo-al econom" and regime sta-ilit" – preventing US infl ence !e" Ellis 11 N+. on the telephone and et an instant response if an issue China has applied more e9plicit press res to ind ce Latin America to !eep its mar!ets open to Chinese oods.=. e9ports. $o"ement to repeal G. for e9ample.uela. &n e9pandin access for its products throu h free trade accords with countries such as Chile.-H 6rotection of Chinese 'ationals. such as Access to Batin American $ar*ets.uela. and aircraft. reLuired Cene. in the case of Ar entina.ndu.> )illion loaned to it )y the 6+C in Chinese currency.

As such. particularly for difficult to replace items such as ener y resources. ..ad"ances $odcls*i and ?hompson's (-==D# wor* on leadership cycle theory. )etween internal and e9ternal conflict and prosperity are stron and mutually reinforcin .eca se of this.he rise of China is intimately tied to the glo-al econom" thro gh trade2 financial2 and information flo#s2 each of #hich is highl" dependent on glo-al instit tions and cooperation./ ?hird.# find a stron correlation )etween internal conflict and e9ternal conflict . +esearch in this "ein has )een considered at systemic. Furthermore.>>. First. -=S7# that leads to uncertainty a)out power )alances . Fe ar ues that interdependent states arc li*ely to ain pacific )enefits from trade so lon as they ha"e an optimistic "iew of future trade relations. on the systemic le"el. 8oldsmith and :rauer.(->. Crises could potentially )e the tri er for decreased trade e9pectations either on its own or )ecause it tri states. 6ollins (-==D# also shows that lo)al economic cycles com)ined with parallel leadership cycles impact the li*elihood of conflict amon ma@or. -===#.-HP Bess intuiti"e is how periods of economic decline may increase the li*elihood of e9ternal conflict. 6eru. Be al and 6olitical 6erspecti"es. ?he lin*a e.S. .>>= #ere efforts to o)tain a seat at the ta)le in *ey re ional institutions. p. Mepartment of Mefense N7edediah +oyal. Fess.. $oreo"er. the li*elihood for conflict increases. . in %conomics of <ar and 6eace: %conomic. rhythms in the lo)al economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre0eminent power and the often )loody transition from one pre0eminent leader to the ne9t . increasin the ris* of miscalculation (Fcaron. and th s the sta-ilit" of the regime2 threatened if an actor s ch as the United States is a-le to limit that cooperation or -loc! glo-al instit tions from s pporting Chinese interests% . Copeland's (-==D.>>/ and its acceptance into the &AM: in . which in turn returns the fa"our. #hose practical effect is to move Latin America a#a" from a U%S%-dominated trading -loc! (the Free ?rade Area of the Americas# in #hich the 43C #o ld have -een disadvantaged% Econ decline ca ses #ar 3<=AL 18 Mirector of Cooperati"e ?hreat +eduction at the G. dyadic and national le"els. e9o enous shoc*s such as economic crises could usher in a redistri)ution of relati"e power (see also 8ilpin. if the e9pectations of future trade decline. as states will )e inclined to use force to ain access to those resources . the presence of a recession tends to amplify the e9tent to which international and e9ternal conflicts self0reinforce each other (FlomhenR V Fess. 6olitical science literature has contri)uted a moderate de ree of attention to the impact of 6ollins (. and Costa +ica to sec re -ilateral free trade agreements . W=X %conomic decline has also )een lin*ed with an increase in the li*elihood of terrorism (:lom)cr .the" occ r. Se"eral nota)le contri)utions follow. . %conomic &nte ration. Separately.n Latin America2 China’s attainment of o-server stat s in the JAS in . $om )er and Fess (. some within the 43C leadership see the co ntr"’s s stained gro#th and development.>>># theory of trade e9pectations su ests that 'future e9pectation of trade' is a si nificant "aria)le in understandin economic conditions and security )eha"iour of states. e"en a relati"ely certain redistri)ution of power could lead to a permissi"e en"ironment for conflict as a risin power may see* to challen e a declinin power (<erner. the 43C has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese mar!ets )y Chile. -==H#. althou h he su ests that the causes and connections )etween lo)al economic conditions and security conditions remain un*nown. %conomic Si nalin and the 6ro)lem of %conomic Crises. ers protectionist mo"es )y interdependent others ha"e considered the lin* )etween economic decline and e9ternal armed conflict at a national le"el. Second. crises enerally reduce the popularity of a sittin o"ernment . . which has the capacity to spill across )orders and lead to e9ternal tensions . p. . particularly durin periods of economic downturn. and to !eep them from -eing sed 0against1 Chinese interests% &n addition. findin that economic decline and the security and defence )eha"iour of interdependent stales.>>3. medium and small powers. Alternati"ely. %conomic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict.>>/#. ed. on a dyadic le"el. V <ee ra pan a. .>->. ?hey write.-40. Fowe"er.

or e"en military crisis. -. China. and the e9istence of many potential "e9ed A potential hot)ed of conflict is also ?aiwan's status. and thus wea* 6residential popularity..YMi"ersionary theoryY su ests that. ?he li*elihood of the lo)al escalation of the conflict is hi h. dyadic and national le"els. 8elpi (-==S#. 6rofessor O &nstitute of 6olitical Studies. <an (-==D#. efficient )an*in system. the GS clash in the re ion.ation of internal policies could lead to a political. Mc+oucn (-==H#. the crisis would to the special position the military occupies in the Chinese political system. first and foremost. etc. Me+ouen (. althou h the operation of political and economic institutions has seen some ma@or chan es. “<orld Jrder: ?he $echanics of ?hreats (Central %uropean 6erspecti"e#”. p. and (isan ani and 6ic*erin (. 6olish Auarterly of &nternational Affairs. and :lom)cr . H3# As already ar ued. when facin unpopularity arisin from economic decline. many e9perts fear China. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic0security de)ate and deser"es more attention. whereas political science scholarship lin*s economic decline with e9ternal conflict al systemic. sittin o"ernments ha"e increased incenti"es to fa)ricate e9ternal military conflicts to create a 'rally around the fla ' effect.>>># has pro"ided e"idence showin that periods of wea* economic performance in the Gnited States. %conomic recession and the related desta)ili. and ?hac*er (. Australia and. For these reasons. or they are too wea*. as the interests of +ussia. Fess. due to the fact that democratic leaders are enerally more suscepti)le to )ein remo"ed from office due to lac* of domestic support. &n summary. &ts political ramifications could )e no less dramatic owin issues in %ast Asia (disputes o"er islands in the China Sea and the 6acific#. Considerin the importance of the state for the de"elopment of the ha"e serious lo)al repercussions. $iller (-===#. ?he tools are efficient pu)lic administration. tools are missin that would allow the esta)lishment of political and le al foundations for the modem economy. the rule of law. Still. an economic crisis in lo)al economy. the economic ad"ance of China has ta*en place with relati"ely few correspondin chan es in the political system. clearly defined ownership ri hts.' ?his implied connection )etween inte ration.>>=# su est that &he tendency towards di"ersionary tactics arc reater for democratic states than autocratic states. . are statistically lin*ed lo an increase in the use of force. >oes glo-al ?amins!i @ (Antoni T.>>D# find supportin e"idence showin that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti# correlated. rcccni economic scholarship positi"ely correlates economic inte ration with an increase in the freLuency of economic crises. 7apan.

. includin $e9ico. China is pro)in Batin America and sendin a messa e that @ust as <ashin ton has trade and military ties in China1s nei h)orhood. :oli"ia. :ei@in "iewed the Ara) Sprin uprisin s not as an impetus for political reform. many of them “ uilty” of political dissent or reli ious acti"ity2 democracy acti"ists are rounded up and imprisoned2 freedom of speech and reli ion and assem)ly do not e9ist2 and internal security forces are i"en shoot0to0*ill orders in dealin with unarmed citi. “Crisis in the America's.” 5 6ut it all to ether.” &n %cuador. 5 ?here is ood and )ad to :ei@in 1s increased interest and in"estment in the <estern Femisphere.)illion for %cuadoran oil2 .-> )illion to help Ar entina moderni. Southern Command conceded as early as . 5 ?o )e sure.uela and :oli"ia. China is engaged in a fl rr" of investing and spending in Latin America%) &n Costa +ica. A study in 7oint Force Auarterly (7FA# adds that :ei@in plun*ed down . China is plannin a massi"e “dry canal” to lin* the country1s 6acific and Atlantic coasts )y rail. 5 &n short. mar*et with China.4. mi ht try to supplant his G.il1s main oil company when it sou ht financin for its massi"e drillin plans.5 ?he 7FA study adds that China has 0an important and gro#ing presence in the region’s military institutions.-. chemical. &n"estment fuels de"elopment.)illion for a slice of :ra. nuclear threats in &ran and 'orth (orea. there will )e Chinese assem)ly facilities.ai#an China’s expanding into Latin America---US infl ence is !e" to cro#d them o t Do#d 1$ (Alan.il1s "ast offshore oil fields.. )ut as reason “to launch its harshest crac*down on dissent in at least a decade. in e9chan e for Chinese de"elopment funds and loans.4.>>> )arrels per day to one million )arrels per day.ens. &ndeed. much of this is a function of China1s desire to secure oil mar*ets.” http://www.Ior a)out -- . Bi*e a lo)al chess match. lo istics operations and distri)ution plants2 and on the 6acific side. trade./0)illion up rade of the country1s oil refinery2 )an*rollin an . <ashin ton needs to relearn an o)"ious truthIthat China1s rulers do not share America1s "aluesIand needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that conte9t.ei/ing had 0approached ever" co ntr" in o r area of responsi-ilit"1 and provided militar" exchanges2 aid or training to %cuador. &t1s worth de"elopment in the economic.. China is focusin on onshore oil e9traction in Cu)a. 5 First. Cene. ominously. and trainin infrastructures that support those products. 8i"en that Cene. :ra.40)illion commitment to de"elop Cene. :ut notin that the Con ressional +esearch Ser"ice has reported concerns in <ashin ton that Fu o Cha"e.or /content!pa es/"iew/crisisinamericas# Focused on military operations in the $iddle %ast.)illion to )uild a hydroelectric plant. For now.hat means no more allo#ing trade dealsIand the partners countin on themIto lang ish% 6lans counseled durin the Cold <ar.-D. there will )e dedicated )erths to ship Colom)ian coal out)ound to China. China is fundin a . that Chinese defense firms “are li*ely to le"era e their e9perience and a rowin trac* record for their oods to e9pand their mar*et share in the re ion.H million )arrels of oil per day for the G. ener y and real0estate deals with :ra. a Chinese0)uilt oil ri arri"ed in Cu)a to )e in drillin in Cu)a1s swath of the 8ulf of $e9ico.uela. +ecall that in China.” $ost Batin American percent of net oil importsIthe results would )e de"astatin for the G.” 5 Second. Cu)a.>>D that .e its rail system2 . ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes adds that :ei@in has lent %cuador . U%S% polic"ma!ers have neglected a gro#ing challenge right here in the &estern 'emisphere( the expanding infl ence and reach of China%) %yein ener y resources to *eep its economy hummin .S. the ends always @ustify the means in :ei@in . *ene+ ela agreed to increase oil shipments to China from 43>.S. 5 ?he 7FA study re"eals @ust how deep and wide :ei@in is spreadin its financial influence in Batin America: .3 )illion in loans to Cene.)illion to purchase Ar entina1s petroleum company outri ht. 7amaica.uela2 a . and China has used enerous loans to position itself as the prime )eneficiary of :ra. And that ma*es all the difference when it comes to forei n and defense policy. technolo y and infrastructure spheres.>./ )illion to de"elop 6eru"ian mines2 . pourin ./. <ith some 43 )illion )arrels of reco"era)le oil off its coast. China came to the rescue of :ra..S. China is developing trade and militar" ties in America’s neigh-orhood %) ?his is a direct challen e to G. maintenance. “?here is no true international security without respect for human ri hts.>. with the secondary conseLuence )ein that those purchasers will )ecome more reliant on the associated Chinese lo istics. and the southern flan* of the Gnited States is e9posed to a ran e of new security challen es.” accordin to Mirector of 'ational &ntelli ence 7ames Clapper. At either terminus.5 Jfficials with the G. as the ?imes details. +ussian. :ei@in has )e un to sell “sophisticated hardwareKsuch as radars and (03 and $A0D> aircraft. 5 nations..340million soccer stadium2 )ac*in infrastructure and telecommunications impro"ements2 and pourin millions into a new police academy. an estimated 40H million people are rottin away in lao ai sla"e0la)or camps. +euters reports that Spanish.= million )arrels per day )y . Chile and Cene.uela pumps an a"era e of -.S. . 5 'ew offshore disco"eries will soon catapult :ra.-> )illion into the pro@ect. 5 :ei@in has no respect for human ri hts. 5 &n Colom)ia. China1s state0run oil and )an*in iants ha"e in*ed technolo y0transfer.ascfusa. 5 &n mid07anuary.. As +ea an the U%S% m st stop ta!ing the &estern 'emisphere for granted2 and instead must reengage in its o#n neigh-orhood economicall"2 politically and militarily%) . $alaysian and 'orwe ian firms will use the ri to e9tract Cu)an oil. “send officers to professional military education courses in the 6+C. :ut there1s more at wor* here than China1s thirst for oil.” ?he 7FA report concludes. Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation.S.1NC – .il. and much of Batin America is happily acceleratin China’s riches come #ith strings%) For instance. there will )e Chinese ports2 in )etween.hat -rings s to the sec rit" dimension of China’s chec!-oo! diplomac" in the <estern Femisphere. and the lo)al threat of terrorism.uelan oil reser"es2 . as the <ashin ton ?imes reports.il e9pects to pump /.ilian oil. primacy in the re ionIa challen e that must )e answered.il into a top0fi"e lo)al oil producer. 6lus.

&n its en a ements with its Batin American and Cari))ean nei h)ors. what it was true in the -=th and . ?o deter China and pre"ent an accidental war.uela.5 &n short.in the Asia06acific re ion.one ha"e faltered and foundered. . Cene. the State Mepartment position focused on the <estern Femisphere has )een staffed )y an interim for nearly a year. 4erhaps it’s time to do the same in Latin America% &e sho ld remem-er that man" Latin American co ntriesIfrom $e9ico and 6anama to Colom)ia and ChileI-order the 4acific% 8i"en :ei@in 1s actions2 it ma!es sense to -ring these Latin American partners on the 6acific +im into the alliance of alliances that is already sta)ili. QQ& mean the" are .” <e cannot o"erstate how important this has )een to *eepin the peace. %l Sal"ador. ener y imports come from Central and South American .ilding ver" strong economic and political connections%%%% . A ood model to follow mi ht )e what1s happenin in China1s )ac*yard.. ?hird.>” #o ld ma!e it clear to .ei/ing that the United States welcomes China1s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas )ut disco rages an" claims of control7implied or explicit7-" China over territories2 properties or facilities in the Americas% &n addition.: 4D4O43-P Clinton tellin an audience of Forei n Ser"ice officers durin a town hall fo nd the gains that China #as ma!ing in Latin America 99: ite dist r-ing. rather than lament the passin of an era when the Gnited States unilaterally dictated the terms of en a ement with its Batin American nei h)ors.11 She went on to add. Second.S. security. shaped its past113D the fact that the region is 99shaping its f t re far more than it o ght to -e #elcomed% Engaging Latin American governments and peoples on mutually a reea)le terms is )y far a more s staina-le fo ndation for #hat o ght to -e the goals of U%S% polic" in the region( the sta)ility.S.. the G.S. :ut with the Gnited States in the midst of massi"e military retrenchment. don’t thin! that’s in o r interest. 'icara ua and :ar)ados# remain empty.>th centuries must remain true in the . and. policy. 6eter 6ham is senior "ice president of the 'ational Committee on American Forei n 6olicy and the incomin editor of American Forei n 6olicy &nterests.ies 4ham 18 NMr.H percent of G. Fence the re ion.>--.S% polic"ma!ers need to ac!no#ledge that America’s Latin American and Cari--ean neigh-ors matter to the United States not only for its traditional security interest in limiting the infl ence of o tside po#ers in the Americas )ut also )ecause All of this led to Secretary of State Fillary +odham meetin at the State Mepartment last year that she lo)ali.ation has accelerated the momentum for the increased inte ration of all of the nations in the <estern Femisphere and re ional cooperation is reLuired to meet a whole host of transnational challen es ran in from spurrin economic rowth to ille al it is in the interests of the United States to rene# relations with the countries to its south )y de"elopin and artic lating a comprehensi"e strate y that clearl" p ts to rest the legac" of 99-enign neglect’’ of immi ration to narcotics traffic*in to en"ironmental issues. this “$onroe Moctrine . mi ht American interests )e sec red and2 indeed2 advancedR First. <ashin ton should ma*e it clear to :ei@in that the American people would loo* unfa"ora)ly upon the sale of Chinese arms or the )asin of Chinese ad"isors or military assets in the <estern Femisphere.5 3eengagement means reviving U%S% diplomac"% ?he <all Street 7ournal reports that due to for a hemispheric free trade . the re ion remains an important source of ener y and other commodities for the Gnited States as well as a ma@or mar*et for American oods and ser"ices.he plan limits China’s infl ence in the region – restarts U%S% – Latin . G. is re"i"in its security partnerships all across the Asia06acific re ion. ultimately. %cuador. China1s Strate ic 6enetration of Batin America: <hat &t $eans for G. .-st: ?here is room for only one reat power in the <estern Femisphere. A)out .S. 7. <hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of the re ion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challen es impose upon G. the Gnited States should pri"ile e )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid.S. military power. )efore 6resident J)ama finally si ned them into law in . while si9 <estern Femisphere am)assadorial posts (Gru uay. one wonders how lon that reser"oir of respect will last. prosperity of the nations of the <estern Femisphere. it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest e9pectations and )etter tar etin of a"aila)le resources.>>3 that China has “a deep respect for G. 4. despite China1s efforts to secure access to Batin America1s natural resources and mar*ets. &nterests.5 +een a ement also means re"itali. ?he and Colom)ia political wran lin in <ashin ton.5 +een a ement means re"ersin plans to slash defense spendin .5 Finally.trade-expansion agreements with 6anama #ere left in lim-o for years.>->. all of this needs to -e part of a revived 5onroe Doctrine %) 6oc sing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas.in security ties. American Forei n 6olicy &nterests. ?he 7oint Forces Command noted in .113H 'o# then2 in the face of China’s gro#ing commercial and political relationships across the re ion.

while the 'orth American Free ?rade A reement that came into force under 6resident :ill Clinton was lon standin familiarity.” sa"s the /. in a rare mo"e.ation has already ruled the su)sidies ille al and. .ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions a ainst American products.e ?aiwan as a <f the $A co ntries that recogni+e . undermined )y last year1s enactment of a measure cancelin a pilot pro ram that allowed carefully screened $e9ican truc*s to carry car o in the Gnited States.ai#an is the most li!el" potential crisis that co ld trigger a n clear #ar -et#een China and the US. especially since the <orld ?rade Jr ani.ai#an independence Li 8@ NFe Bi. Eet.S#.ai#an.S.ai#an’s independence.>-4: http(DD###%taipeitimes%comDNe#sDtai#anDarchivesD$81AD8AD1ED$88AFF@$11G . ?han*s to pro9imity as well as U%S% . the dama e to ?aiwan1s political conZdence and its claims of legitimac" as a state #o ld -e seriously ndermined.ai#an over international legitimac"2 recognition2 and stat s% China’s : est to recover what it calls “the pro"ince of .5 6repared )y the CS&S1 6ro@ect on 'uclear &ssues and resultin from a year0lon study.aipei to . authori.ai#an’’ is one of the top iss es on its foreign polic" agenda% &ts strate y a ainst ?aiwan has )een )oth )ilateral and lo)al.ilian ethanol and to settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween <ashin ton and :rasilia.sinesses still have a comparative advantage over overseas competitors in the mar*ets of the <estern Femisphere.ai#an in e"ery corner of the world.4 reco ni.ai#an remains the single most pla si-le and dangero s so rce of tension and conflict -et#een the US and China.> percent of all of G. while at the same time the US maintains the . Accordin to then0prime minister of ?aiwan Eu Shyi0*un in .ei/ing contin es to -e set on a polic" to prevent . 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e. .4 million people and well protected territory.ei/ing is determined to contain . e9ports.ai#an has -een intensiBed in a region far a#a" from Asia% so"erei n state. ..f these states were to s#itch recognition from . especially in Central America and the Cari--ean2 the stronghold of .nternational Studies (CS.3= Chinese infl ence !e" to prevent . 6resident J)ama sin led out Colom)ia and 6anama as QQ*ey partners11 with which he promised to stren then trade relations. Fearin ?aiwan1s push for international recognition #ill lead to its declaration of independence2 .ai#an2 1$ are in Latin America and the Cari--ean% ?aiwan has )een de"otin enormous efforts to retain diplomatic reco nition. a new academic report concludes.pdfP Latin America has -een a ma/or -attlegro nd of the 0foreign polic" #ar1 -et#een China and . :oston %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America.ei/ing.5 “.ai#an%?aiwan has . the strategic competition -et#een China and .countries and the re ion )uys . the report emphasi. http://www.>>S. :ilaterally.wilsoncenter.>>.S. only .0pa e report -" the <ashin ton0)ased Center for Strate ic and .ai#an from claiming independence% 8lo)ally.>-> State of the Gnion address.es that . $o"ement to repeal G. ?aiwan1s allies in Latin America and the Cari))ean “have helped us a lot and therefore we consider this an area of maxim m diplomatic importance %1. Gnder such circumstances.33 Eet a-sent proactive &hite 'o se leadership. tariffs on :ra.ai#an independence #ill spar! US-China N !e #ar Lo#ther2 staff reporter in &ashington D%C%2 $81A C&illiam2 0?aiwan could spar* nuclear war: report” ?aipei ?imes: Jnline: $ar -D.3S ?hus the administration m st recommit itself to )uildin on those solid foundations to reinforce and expand America’s economic ties #ith its neigh-ors to the so th% &n his . the free trade agreements with those two countries have still not -een ratified. . China’s strateg" has foc sed on developing an international nited front desi ned to marginali+e .or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal. of the Gnited 'ations1 -=4 mem)er states. more than the %uropean Gnion. China has sed a mi9 of economic diplomac" and military and political mo"es to !eep .

” >oes glo-al and n clear ' n!ovic H (Bee 7. “?he Chinese0?aiwanese Conflict: 6ossi)le Futures of a Confrontation )etween China. includin 7apan. as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the lo)al economy.or /eCommons/ Fun*o"ic. &n any case. which ressi"e e9pansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia. )oth (oreas. &ndia and 8reat :ritain. if China and the Gnited States en a e in a full0 scale conflict.capa-ilit" to come to . ?aiwan and the G nited States has the potential to escalate into a n clear conflict and a third #orld #ar. if they were drawn into the war. it Luotes senior fellow at the GS Council on Forei n +elations +ichard :etts descri)in ?aiwan as “the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia . American $ilitary Gni"ersity.sti-le2 complicated -" rapidl" diverging crossstrait militar" capa-ilities and persistent political disagreements2” the report says.” :etts wrote in a separate study of his own.his is a classic recipe for s rprise2 miscalc lation and ncontrolled escalation. as well as the 6acific could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces to contain the threat. the possi)ility e9ists that they could then plan to attac* 7apan and )e in a policy of a and e"en into &ndia. therefore. Fowe"er. other countries will not )e considered in this study. whose actions will determine its e"entual outcome.lamp0method. China.5 &n a footnote. therefore. +ussia.pdf# A war )etween China. many countries other than the primary actors could )e affected )y such a conflict.”5 ?he report also Luotes :etts as sayin that neither :ei@in nor <ashin ton can fully control de"elopments that mi ht i nite a ?aiwan crisis. th e sit ation remains com.5 “Altho gh tensions across the ?aiwan Strait have s -sided since )oth ?aipei and :ei@in em)raced a policy of en a ement in . ?aiwan and Gnited States are the primary actors in this scenario.>>3. http://www. in which the Gnited States and China are the two most dominant mem)ers. . Australia.ai#an’s defense. &f China were a)le to successfully anne9 ?aiwan. ?aiwan and the Gnited States of America”.ai#an is the contingenc" in #hich n clear #eapons #o ld most li!el" -ecome a ma/or factor. there are few countries in the world that will not )e economically and/or militarily affected )y it. )ecause the fate of the island is intert#ined -oth #ith the legitimac" of the Chinese Comm nist 4art" and the relia-ilit" of US defense commitments in the Asia06acific re ion. 5 “.5 ?he CS&S study says: “For the foreseea)le future .

Uni: eness .

S.)illion to )uild a hydroelectric plant. $alaysian and 'orwe ian firms will use the ri to e9tract Cu)an oil. includin $e9ico. the ends always @ustify the means in :ei@in .ilian oil. there will )e Chinese assem)ly facilities. 7amaica.1NC – Uni: eness China’s expanding into Latin America---US infl ence is !e" to cro#d them o t Do#d 1$ (Alan.” &n %cuador.uela. “send officers to professional military education courses in the 6+C. mi ht try to supplant his G. lo istics operations and distri)ution plants2 and on the 6acific side.” http://www. 5 nations.-D. <ashin ton needs to relearn an o)"ious truthIthat China1s rulers do not share America1s "aluesIand needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that conte9t.H million )arrels of oil per day for the G. ener y and real0estate deals with :ra. <ith some 43 )illion )arrels of reco"era)le oil off its coast.340million soccer stadium2 )ac*in infrastructure and telecommunications impro"ements2 and pourin millions into a new police academy. At either terminus. with the secondary conseLuence )ein that those purchasers will )ecome more reliant on the associated Chinese lo istics. and the lo)al threat of terrorism. Cene. For now. 5 &n mid07anuary.hat means no more allo#ing trade dealsIand the partners countin on themIto lang ish% 6lans counseled durin the Cold <ar./ )illion to de"elop 6eru"ian mines2 .5 ?he 7FA study adds that China has 0an important and gro#ing presence in the region’s military institutions. in e9chan e for Chinese de"elopment funds and loans. 5 &n short. Chile and Cene.uelan oil reser"es2 . an estimated 40H million people are rottin away in lao ai sla"e0la)or camps..)illion for %cuadoran oil2 . China is plannin a massi"e “dry canal” to lin* the country1s 6acific and Atlantic coasts )y rail. :ei@in has )e un to sell “sophisticated hardwareKsuch as radars and (03 and $A0D> aircraft. China is engaged in a fl rr" of investing and spending in Latin America%) &n Costa +ica.ascfusa.)illion for a slice of :ra. 6lus. China is focusin on onshore oil e9traction in Cu)a. &n"estment fuels de"elopment. China1s state0run oil and )an*in iants ha"e in*ed technolo y0transfer. and the southern flan* of the Gnited States is e9posed to a ran e of new security challen es.” $ost Batin American percent of net oil importsIthe results would )e de"astatin for the G.-> )illion into the pro@ect. +ussian.3 )illion in loans to Cene. and much of Batin America is happily acceleratin China’s riches come #ith strings%) For instance. &ndeed. 5 'ew offshore disco"eries will soon catapult :ra. China is pro)in Batin America and sendin a messa e that @ust as <ashin ton has trade and military ties in China1s nei h)orhood. chemical. 5 ?o )e sure. +ecall that in China. :ra.ens. As +ea an the U%S% m st stop ta!ing the &estern 'emisphere for granted2 and instead must reengage in its o#n neigh-orhood economicall"2 politically and militarily%) . Southern Command conceded as early as .5 Jfficials with the G.uela pumps an a"era e of -. 5 &n Colom)ia.ei/ing had 0approached ever" co ntr" in o r area of responsi-ilit"1 and provided militar" exchanges2 aid or training to %cuador.” ?he 7FA report concludes.or /content!pa es/"iew/crisisinamericas# Focused on military operations in the $iddle %ast. China is fundin a . 5 First. 8i"en that Cene. nuclear threats in &ran and 'orth (orea. 5 ?here is ood and )ad to :ei@in 1s increased interest and in"estment in the <estern Femisphere. Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation./. and China has used enerous loans to position itself as the prime )eneficiary of :ra. “?here is no true international security without respect for human ri hts.>. a Chinese0)uilt oil ri arri"ed in Cu)a to )e in drillin in Cu)a1s swath of the 8ulf of $e9ico.il1s main oil company when it sou ht financin for its massi"e drillin plans.” 5 6ut it all to ether.-.e its rail system2 .4.. as the ?imes details.40)illion commitment to de"elop Cene. Cu)a.>>> )arrels per day to one million )arrels per day. maintenance. &t1s worth de"elopment in the economic. that Chinese defense firms “are li*ely to le"era e their e9perience and a rowin trac* record for their oods to e9pand their mar*et share in the re ion. trade. 5 :ei@in has no respect for human ri hts. “Crisis in the America's. and trainin infrastructures that support those products.S.il. many of them “ uilty” of political dissent or reli ious acti"ity2 democracy acti"ists are rounded up and imprisoned2 freedom of speech and reli ion and assem)ly do not e9ist2 and internal security forces are i"en shoot0to0*ill orders in dealin with unarmed citi. ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes adds that :ei@in has lent %cuador . ominously. *ene+ ela agreed to increase oil shipments to China from 43>.hat -rings s to the sec rit" dimension of China’s chec!-oo! diplomac" in the <estern Femisphere. :ut there1s more at wor* here than China1s thirst for oil.uela and :oli"ia. China is developing trade and militar" ties in America’s neigh-orhood %) ?his is a direct challen e to G. China came to the rescue of :ra. technolo y and infrastructure spheres. .4. :ut notin that the Con ressional +esearch Ser"ice has reported concerns in <ashin ton that Fu o Cha"e.uela2 a . there will )e dedicated )erths to ship Colom)ian coal out)ound to China.)illion to purchase Ar entina1s petroleum company outri ht. primacy in the re ionIa challen e that must )e answered. there will )e Chinese ports2 in )etween. much of this is a function of China1s desire to secure oil mar*ets. 5 ?he 7FA study re"eals @ust how deep and wide :ei@in is spreadin its financial influence in Batin America: .. Bi*e a lo)al chess match.-> )illion to help Ar entina moderni. A study in 7oint Force Auarterly (7FA# adds that :ei@in plun*ed down ...>>D that .” 5 Second. as the <ashin ton ?imes reports.>. :oli"ia. U%S% polic"ma!ers have neglected a gro#ing challenge right here in the &estern 'emisphere( the expanding infl ence and reach of China%) %yein ener y resources to *eep its economy hummin .= million )arrels per day )y . pourin . And that ma*es all the difference when it comes to forei n and defense policy.” accordin to Mirector of 'ational &ntelli ence 7ames Clapper.il1s "ast offshore oil fields./0)illion up rade of the country1s oil refinery2 )an*rollin an .S. mar*et with China. :ei@in "iewed the Ara) Sprin uprisin s not as an impetus for political reform.S.il into a top0fi"e lo)al oil producer.Ior a)out -- .S.il e9pects to pump /. )ut as reason “to launch its harshest crac*down on dissent in at least a decade. +euters reports that Spanish..

what it was true in the -=th and . Cene.5 +een a ement also means re"itali. ?he 7oint Forces Command noted in . all of this needs to -e part of a revived 5onroe Doctrine %) 6oc sing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas.>” #o ld ma!e it clear to . the State Mepartment position focused on the <estern Femisphere has )een staffed )y an interim for nearly a year.5 &n short. 4erhaps it’s time to do the same in Latin America% &e sho ld remem-er that man" Latin American co ntriesIfrom $e9ico and 6anama to Colom)ia and ChileI-order the 4acific% 8i"en :ei@in 1s actions2 it ma!es sense to -ring these Latin American partners on the 6acific +im into the alliance of alliances that is already sta)ili.ei/ing that the United States welcomes China1s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas )ut disco rages an" claims of control7implied or explicit7-" China over territories2 properties or facilities in the Americas% &n addition. one wonders how lon that reser"oir of respect will last..S. this “$onroe Moctrine .>th centuries must remain true in the . )efore 6resident J)ama finally si ned them into law in .in security ties. the G.in the Asia06acific re ion.trade-expansion agreements with 6anama #ere left in lim-o for years.” <e cannot o"erstate how important this has )een to *eepin the peace.>>3 that China has “a deep respect for G. military power. :ut with the Gnited States in the midst of massi"e military retrenchment.5 Finally. ?he and Colom)ia political wran lin in <ashin ton.S.>--. <ashin ton should ma*e it clear to :ei@in that the American people would loo* unfa"ora)ly upon the sale of Chinese arms or the )asin of Chinese ad"isors or military assets in the <estern Femisphere. %cuador. is re"i"in its security partnerships all across the Asia06acific re ion. ?o deter China and pre"ent an accidental war.uela. %l Sal"ador.5 +een a ement means re"ersin plans to slash defense spendin . A ood model to follow mi ht )e what1s happenin in China1s )ac*yard. while si9 <estern Femisphere am)assadorial posts (Gru uay.-st: ?here is room for only one reat power in the <estern Femisphere. 'icara ua and :ar)ados# remain empty.one ha"e faltered and foundered. .5 3eengagement means reviving U%S% diplomac"% ?he <all Street 7ournal reports that due to for a hemispheric free trade .

>>3 to . Latin America’s prospects have attracted serious attention.D percent. China is : ic!l" catching p to man" of LAC’s traditional trading partners. ?his has )een ood news for the lar e a ricultural. Fi htin corruption is difficult anywhere. &n terms political pro)lems may finally start to impro"e and i"e $e9ican industries a chance to compete on the lo)al sta e of de"elopment o"erall. the Gnited States and the %G are still ahead of China in terms of trade flows with Batin America. alarmism a)out China *eepin BAC economies dependent on natural resources is o"er)lown.S. Another ad"erse effect is the rowin resentment amon some Batin Americans in some sectors that ha"e )een increasin ly displaced )y China1s industrial or manufacturin e9ports to BAC.>>=0. Chinese e9ports to $e9ico ha"e also undercut indi enous industry and resulted in a su)stantial trade deficit. $e9ico has )een amon the hardest hit amon countries in the <estern hemisphere as its lar e industrial )ase has stru led to compete with Chinese manufacturin in a diminished. :ra. whose security and % Using targeted policies2 other co ntries #ith man fact ring sectors ma" -enefit from China1s economic restructurin . as well as for e9panded Sino0Batin American economic relationship ha"e )een mi9ed. and ener y industries of Batin America. . from . Althou h BAC is not a sin le country. China1s new 6resident. Stallin s. ?he central issue is a)out o"ernance: those countries that )enefit o"er the lon term from the current commodity )oom will )e the ones most @udicious when it comes to future in"estments and industrial policy. mar*et.>>> to G.4 )illion in .to = percent of total FM& in BAC from .. &t is not without serious challen es or difficulties that Latin America and the Cari))ean (BAC# are radually emer in as a re ion of sta)le economic de"elopment. another region of gro#ing importance for China is Latin America . $ost nota)ly.>-.D=.D.>>3.>>32 while BAC e9ports to China increased from G. not China.il1s o"ernment has )een forced to mana e a sensiti"e )alancin act.S. accordin to a report )y researchers at ?ufts Gni"ersity.>>>0. <hile there has )een much analysis of its acti"ity in Africa and Central Asia. China and Batin America: :i :usiness and :i Competition.sinesses and organi+ations have expanded their activit" in the region O a trend that contin es to gro#. it would help )elea uered $e9ico.t targeted policies can erode dominance Sarmiento-Saher 1A NSe)astian Sarmiento0Saher is an editorial assistant for ?he Miplomat. http://thediplomat.S>.>->. . ?he results of this countries li*e Chile and Cene.S. ha"e topped G.S.O ma*in the re ion the second largest recipient of Chinese FM& )ehind only Fon (on . Chinese in"estment in Batin America . 6eru. China’s comparative advantage ma" -e eroding d e to increased prod ction costs recent e9ternal and internal de"elopments may )e creatin an opportunity for the re ion to )alance its rowin economic relations with China. minin .$NC – Uni: eness Chinese infl ence is high no# – the" are developing trade and militar" ties as a res lt of diminished U%S% foc s – that’s Do#d Chinese economic infl ence is gro#ing in Latin America2 . and :ei@in 1s desire to lead its economy toward hi her0end manufacturin and domestic consumption. <hat is most si nificant a)out these de"elopments o"erall is how rapidl" Chinese .>>> to G. 'ota)ly. &n terms of forei n direct in"estment (FM&#. Jn the ne ati"e side. howe"er.S.ilian manufacturin industries that stru le a ainst cheaper Chinese oods. . and social mo)ility. Mespite these issues. post0financial crisis G. %choin the speed of the trade increases a)o"e. 4/-//-4. new sta*eholders will . and Batin America is no e9ception. As Batin America continues to rapple with deficits in infrastructure.>>3 Asia06acific %conomic Cooperation (A6%C# summit in Bima. Fowe"er.. Already China’s trade n m-ers #ith LAC have s rpassed those of Japan. .>->2 thus ma*in the 6+C the third lar est in"estor in Batin America )ehind only the 'etherlands and the Gnited States that year. a study )y %nriLue Mussel 6eters found that Batin America received 11%K1 percent of total Chinese 6D. As democracy deepens and middle classes emer e in the re ion. education.SH )illion since . howe"er. Accordin to :ar)ara Mespite a slowdown in China1s impressi"e economic rowth. whose e9ports and rowth are tied closely to the 6+C1s demand for resources.H.>>H and may account for appro9imately half of the 6+C1s lendin a)road from .S )illion in .uela.= )illion in .S. Gnder 6resident Fu 7intao China deepened its ties #ith Latin American co ntries throu h initiati"es li*e the . Chinese e9ports to Batin America rew su)stantially from G. especially from Chinese firms and policyma*ers *een to )enefit from rowin opportunities and access to raw materials in BAC.4 )illion in . &f this trend continues. fosterin lucrati"e relations with China while addressin the frustration of :ra. many of its independent states have an andance of nat ral reso rces and emer in manufacturin and ser"ice sectors that are pro/ected to achieve solid gro#th in the comin years. China1s competiti"eness has complicated the Sino0BAC honeymoon period in recent years. Ii Jinping2 is also no stranger to the region after ha"in made se"eral state "isits there as "ice president. which. the Luestion a)out whether rowin economic ties with the 6+C will )e a )urden or a *ey opportunity lies in the actions of Batin America. the pre"iously dominant Asian tradin partner for Batin America. .. @umped from .hese investments come in addition to massive loan credits 5 ch of the trade2 investment2 and loans from the 43C have -een foc sed on the co ntries2 companies2 and infrastr ct re that nderpin the extraction of nat ral reso rces and other commodities in the region. this has raised Luestions a)out Batin American dependence on resource e9ports and the specter of Mutch disease.com/china0power/china0and0latin0america0)i 0)usiness0and0)i 0 competition/P the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China (43C# no# ran!s as the #orld’s second largest econom"% A -"prod ct of this rapid expansion has -een China’s search for ne# mar!ets and resources to s stain its economic gro#th. despite these dramatic increases of =-> percent and -. Ba)or mo"ements and en"ironmental roups ha"e also )e un to ta*e a stand a ainst the e9tracti"e industries of countries li*e 6eru and Chile.

ting &ashingtonMs #ea!ened infl ence in the region to its fail re in foreign polic" and economic development 00 #hile China rises on the -ac! of glo-ali+ation.N A5E3. China mana ed to interrupt diplomatic ties )etween poor Batin countries and ?aiwan. %specially after the start of the Cold <ar.” Shouldn1t the Gnited States. )illion.sinesses have -een expanding their footprint in Latin America in a num)er of ways.NAMS 3. which put forward the $onroe Moctrine two centuries a o. <ashin ton didn1t care that some Batin American countries were dictatorial or that they "iolated human ri hts. &nstead. After the collapse of the So"iet Gnion. Since adoptin idealism.CAMS . and e"entually led to the downfall of most of the )rutal totalitarian military o"ernments. . &n . Fowe"er. a year0on0year increase of 3.>--.. the G.l! commodities such as oil.. ?he ultimate oal set )y this theory may not )e a pro)lem. has pushed Batin American countries 00 many facin a se"ere de)t crisis 00 to accept the “<ashin ton Consensus” oriented )y mar*et economy theory. the G. ?here will continue to )e cases of cooperation and competition )etween BAC countries and the 6+C as their relations mature O )ut as long each side has m ch to offer the other2 the people of -oth Latin America and China have a lot to loo! for#ard to in the e"olution of their “So th-So th relations%1 hold o"ernments accounta)le. also Luestion how China is Luietly arri"in in America1s )ac*yardR An American )lind spotR &n their )oo* America's :lind Spot: Cala and $ichael 7. Chinese infl ence is high no# – the U%S% is slipping Iiaoxia 1A L&ang2 Economic <-serverD&orldcr nch2 FDED1A2 . when America put forward the $onroe Moctrine and declared its sphere of influence to Cha"e. with its intention of “containin China's front door.0Batin American trade included the participation of se"eral heads of state from the re ion. used military means lar ely without restraint. Chinese .s" in AmericaMs -ac!"ard% J"er the past fi"e years. :y pro"idin funds and assistin in infrastructure constructions. Security. they %uropeans.4H. Andres America1s YChina factorY with some sordid conspiracy theory. as lon as their leaders firmly stood on the side of the anti0Communist camp. Since then. Accordin to the latest statistics of the 8eneral Administration of Customs of China. &n the -==>s. Some prominent Chinese ha"e condemned the Gnited States' hi h0profile +eturn to Asia strate y.)illion.D-.N6LUENCE . resources and ener y. Jil. America considers that whate"er is )est for itself is also )est for the rest of the world.-3[. ?he Gnited States has shifted its focus in Batin America to specific issues such as ille al immi ration and dru smu lin .CA2 http(DD###%#orldcr nch%comDchina-$%8Din-america-8AH-s--ac!"ard-china8AH-s-rising-infl ence-in-latin-americaDforeign-polic"-trade-econom"investments-energ"DcHs11EK@DN China is ..AC?=A3D( C'. #ith ChinaMs economic -oom2 the s ppl" of energ" and .. China1s acti"ities in Batin America were limited to the diplomatic le"el. the Gnited States faced Latin America’s strategic significance has : ic!l" slipped to a secondar" and more local ran!ing.S.S. America )e an to demand that its former dictatorial allies Luit their attachment to power and carry out a transition to democracy.As Latin America contin es to develop2 China #ill ndo -tedl" pla" a significant role in its progress and ad"ancement. "olume was .N LA.S. it has maintained the uniLue position of the Gnited States in the Americas. for the first time a Batin American su)0forum was created that China has o"erta*en the 'etherlands to -ecome Latin America’s second -iggest investor )ehind the Gnited States.>--.his trend ris!s ndermining the position of the United States as Latin America’s single dominant trading partner. Since . Gnder the doctrine of realism. Since -=3=. $ilitary inter"ention has always ser"ed as the most important tool for the Gnited States.N A5E3. and G. copper and soy)eans. China as a new fa"orite &nitially. -eginning #ith enhanced trade to ens re a stead" s ppl" of . ?he idealism e9ported )y the Gnited States intensified the e9istin contradictions in Batin American society. Sino-Latin American trade gre# in $81$ to a total of . America )ro*e any illusion of moral constraint in its forei n inter"entions2 new e9ternal challen es such as the threat of lo)al terrorism. &ts forei n policy is aimed at maintainin democracy.S. which e9acer)ated the di"ision )etween the rich and the poor 00 leadin to serious social pro)lems.he 0realism1 that ran thro gh America’s foreign polic" d ring the Cold &ar has radually transformed to#ards 0idealism21 #hich in conseLuence #ea!ens its infl ence in Latin America. . Economides a"oid the usual patter of lin*in South investigate Latin America’s s -tle choice -et#een China and the United States . Since -3. human ri hts and a free mar*et economy around the world. the G. attri. Batin America suffered another se"ere economic downturn. it did not pull Batin America out of the Lua mire of its “lost decade” of the -=3>s. China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements #ith Latin American co ntries in such fields as finance. in order to cur) Communism from ta*in root in Batin America.S. the protection of American interests was its pra matic principle.4.N> . At this year's :oao Forum for Asia.

&n the past 4> years. and China1s in"estment insta)ility of its ener y security. that are in sharp conflict with the Gnited States. &t must also help solidify the important lin*s of the petroleum industry supply chain. such as Cene. which increases the Latin America and its h ge reserves and prod ction capacit" nat rall" -ecame a destination for China% China must )etter protect its ener y supply. ?hese scholars )elie"e All China is interested in is esta-lishing long-term2 sta-le economic relations% . the China National 4etrole m Corporation fre: entl" appears in Latin American co ntries .reso rces has grad all" -ecome a pro-lem that plag es China 00 and its exchanges #ith Latin America thus are endo#ed #ith real s -stantive p rpose.ers of the last century. &ndeed. Mi"ersification is ine"ita)le.uela. China's current practice isn1t much different from that of <estern coloni. and trade in the Batin American countries are also focused on its ener y sector. and can't @ust play the simple role of consumer. China has cons med one-third of the #orldMs ne# oil prod ction and )ecome the world's second0lar est oil importer. the demand for oil has always )een the most powerful dri"in force. &n this conte9t. )ecome a close colla)orator of certain Batin American countries. &n the opinion of many %uropean and American scholars.his realistic path is e9actly opposite to that of AmericaMs ne#fo nd idealism% ?hus China has that China doesn1t care a)out local human ri hts or the state of democracy when dealin with countries. . Amon the numerous needs of China. $ore than half of China's oil demand depends on imports.

China ;nfl ence 'igh – 4op larit"
,he Latin American p -lic loves China <lson KD$
N%ric, <ilson Center, China seen fa"ora)ly in Batin America, //./-4, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /article/latin0american0pro ram0the0news0china0seen0 fa"ora)ly0latin0americaP Large ma/orities of people in co ntries across Latin America and the Cari))ean -elieve China has at least Ysome infl enceO in their region and most see that infl ence as positive, accordin to a sur"ey partly funded )y the Gnited States o"ernment. ,he vie#s on China #ere c lled from a -road assessment of p -lic opinion,

conducted in .>-., that in"ol"ed .D countries and o"er /-,>>> indi"idual inter"iews, researchers said in issuin their findin s at a thin*0tan* seminar in <ashin ton on ?hursday. Jnly .> percent of respondents, on a"era e, in the multinational sur"ey descri)ed China as the Ymost influentialY country in the re ion. &n response to a separate

<f those #ho deemed China Omost infl entialO2 more than t#o-thirds CEP percentG characteri+ed that infl ence as either OpositiveO or Over" positiveY, accordin to the findin s from the
Luestion, .4 percent said they e9pect China to ha"e that status within -> years. Batin American 6u)lic Jpinion 6ro@ect, led )y Cander)ilt Gni"ersity in ?ennessee with fundin from the GS A ency for &nternational Me"elopment, the o"ernment's main conduit for forei n assistance.

Among respondents in the $$ Latin American and Cari--ean co ntries as!ed a-o t China - incl ding2 - t not limited to2 those #ho ran!ed it first in regional infl ence - the nation #as rated ne tral to positive along a 1-to-F scale%

China ;nfl ence 'igh – U%S% A-andonment
Chinese infl ence is s rging d e to lac! of American engagement Ch ggani and Lamadrid 1A
N Sumeet Chu ani and +icardo Jrti; 8il Bamadrid, Mia; +eus &n"estin , China1s sur in influence in Batin American finance, 4/-H/-4, http://www.le9olo y.com/li)rary/detail.asp9R \3ScaS.)S0)=e40/S/e0=fH.0 4.e33dc=4>HDP ,he ongoing financial crisis in E rope and the United States contin es to raise red flags for the Latin American )ranches of multinational -an!s. Latin American financial instit tions anticipate that U%S% and E ropean -an!s #ill soon p ll -ac! from their international lending acti"itiesIca sing a su)stantial decrease in the re ion1s o"erall li: idit". As of 7une .>--, %uropean )an*s pro"ided ,.>D )illion in credit lines to their Batin American counterpartsI
ma*in them the lar est pro"iders of e9ternal fundin to the re ion. ?he Gnited States also pro"ides a steady flow of credit lines

A red ction of foreign credit lines #ill red ce the s ppl" of dollar f nding for exporters and increase the premi ms charged -" local financial instit tions. Still, local su)sidiaries of G.S. and %uropean )an*s that are well entrenched in Batin American countries and hold a lar e deposit )ase and copious amounts of local currency will sur"i"e. ,he expected p ll-ac! of American and E ropean -an!s may cause local )an*s in Batin America to adopt a more conser"ati"e approach to credit e9pansion. &t also holds the potential for a detrimental impact on exports flo#ing in and o t of the region. ?he reduction of credit facilities will reLuire Batin American countries to search elsewhere for "alua)le credit lines. &t is a hi hly pro)a)ly that this ne# scenario #ill give Chinese and 7apanese -an!s ne# opport nities to f rther expand their already s rging infl ence in the Latin American region’s financial affairs%
throu hout Batin America.

Latin American governments are siding #ith China- lac! of U%S% investment !e"
&atts 1A N7onathon, ?he 8uardian, China's hun er for resources has )i en"ironmental impact in Batin America, 4/.=/-4, http://news.mon a)ay.com/.>-4/>4.=0 en0china0 ama;on0impact.htmlP ,he #orldMs most pop lo s nation has /oined the ran!s of wealthy countries in E rope2 North America and east Asia that ha"e lon consumed and polluted unsustaina)ly. ,his has led to what author $ichael ? (lare calls Ya race for #hatMs leftO and its impact is particularly e"ident in the continent with much of the untapped, unspoiled natural resources. %"en more than Africa, Batin America has -ecome a ma/or foc s of .ei/ingMs drive for commodities. A study last year )y %nriLue Mussel 6eters, a professor at the 'ational Autonomous Gni"ersity of $e9ico, found that the region has -een the leadin destination for Chinese foreign direct investment O mostly for raw materials and )y )i o"ernment0run companies such as Chinalco and C'JJC. Since the .>>3 financial crisis, China has also -ecome the main lender to the region% &n .>->, it pro"ided ,4S )illion (]./ )illion# in loans O more than the <orld :an*2 ;nter-American .an! and the US ;mport-Export .an! com)ined%
$ost of this has one to four primary e9porters O Cene;uela, :ra;il, Ar entina and %cuador O for minin or transport infrastructure. ?he economic )enefits ha"e )een enormous.

,rade -et#een China and Latin America #as / st

Q18 -illion in $888. &n .>--, it had sur ed to ,./- )illion. <hile the distri)ution has "aried enormously from country to country, this helped Latin America avoid the #orst of the financial and

economic crises that gripped m ch of the developed #orld and pro"ided e9tra re"enue for po"erty alle"iation pro rams that ha"e eased the re ion's notorious ineLuality. ;t also pla"ed a ma/or part in )olsterin left0leanin o"ernments that are see!ing an alternative to neoli-eral prescriptions from &ashington and &all Street%

almost S[ . which attaches few conditions to the loans. with appro9imately . China lends money to them more easily than institutions such as the <orld :an*. light a little candle ever" da" and pra" that ChinaMs gro#th doesnMt fallY. For e9ample.H/-. reachin .chinacenter.ation of American States.0>D/. Latin American exports to China / mped nine time s. which Batin American countries ha"e in a)undance. means China is no# the -iggest trade partner of Ar entina.cn/opinion/. 6eru's finance minister. .S. Not for long . And China has free trade a reements with Chile." $88@ t#o-#a" trade -et#een China and Latin America had alread" eclipsed Q188 -illion.U%S% is falling and China is gaining Cerna 11 N$ichael. Another reason for the GS losin its influence in Batin America is that its economy is not doin so well. . Also investment from China is gro#ing at a fast pace% &n lo)al terms. &n the past decade trade )etween the GS trade -et#een China and Latin American co ntries gre# 1@ times.> years a o. the same can now )e said of China.il. almost H>[ more than the pre"ious year and three years ahead of schedule. China's influence rows in GS' ')ac*yard'. has said Ythe truth is . .>-> than the <orld :an*. and )ecause they find it easier to do )usiness with China.H/content!-HH. its infl ence in the 6eru"ian economy is ver" -ig. &nter0American Me"elopment :an* and GS o"ernment put to ether.>-. the US is still the -iggest trade partner of the region .n $88P2 t#o-#a" trade and investment reached Q1K8 -illion.4 )illion. challenging the USM position in Latin America% ?he USM importance as a mar!et for Latin American goods #as so -ig that there #as a time it #as said( O&hen the US econom" snee+es2 Latin American co ntries catch a cold%Y :ut as China has no# -ecome a larger export destination for some Latin American co ntries. China appears to -e slo#l" closing the gap on the U%S % &n .H. to the point that Buis $i uel Castilla. //-H/--. &n the past decade ChinaMs trade2 investment and economic cooperation #ith the region has increased.htmP Not so long ago2 Latin America #as considered the O-ac!"ardO of the United States. ?he GS demanded economic reforms in Batin American countries .>>=. )ut also )ecause they want to sell manufactured oods to the rowin and affluent Chinese middle class. http://usa. namely a )i o"ernment deficit and de)t. lent more money to Batin American countries in . http://www. Chile and 6eru.igger Chinese economic ties are A: ino 1$ p d e to U%S% declines NCarlos.chinadaily.nfl ence 'igh – A$( U%S% . Also the re ion does not a ree with the GS' approach to fi htin the dru trade and resol"in the immi ration pro)lem from the re ion to the GS. professor of economics at San $arcos 'ational Gni"ersity .t this is no# changing. China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G.com. For e9ample. Costa +ica and 6eru that will enhance that relationship. D/.>>=#. mainly slashin spendin . and countries such as Cene.China . China +esearch Center. throu h entities li*e the %9port0&mport :an* of China and the China Me"elopment :an*.t it is onl" a matter of time -efore China claims that role % Batin American countries are and Batin American countries increased twice )ut the interested in China not only )ecause it )uys their raw materials at hi her prices.>.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P .. &hile Latin American co ntries are gro#ing2 d e in no small part to the demand from China2 the US is facing the same pro-lems Latin American co ntries s ffered $8 "ears ago. China. :ra.uela and Ar entina that cannot et loans from international )an*s et loans from China. and now it is the turn of Batin American countries to demand that the GS do those reforms.. &n fact. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion.-. ChinaMs emergence as an economic po#er and its needs for natural resources and food.> )illion de"oted to )ilateral trade ($iller. Also o"ernment Latin American co ntries are not happ" #ith the US -eca se it still opposes C -aMs inte ration in the Jr ani./-.

had more than half of the trade with the re ion2 China had less than ->[ for China. one would find that the percenta e of trade is sli htly shiftin .e of those acti"ities.>>>s the G.-/> )illion in trade with China. $e9ico is the lar est tradin partner of the G.S. has )ecome a ma@or player o"er the past decade. in *ene+ ela sees China as a po#erf l all" in its cr sade against &estern Oimperialism2O while countries such as 6eru. $eanwhile. 'ow the U%S% has ro ghl" the same amo nt of total trade2 . trade in Batin America increased from S.>--st Auarter.HD> )illion compared to @ust o"er .S. %"an %llis is an Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity. <hen we loo* at Batin American trade o"er the past decade with )oth the G. accordin to (e"in 8alla her of ?he 8uardian..ndu. Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America A Case Study.S. http://www.S..S.t China is no# nearing -. %"en thou h China of all Batin American e9ports. )ut rather on hopes or fears in the re ion of #hat it co ld -e in the f t re%) . and China.edu/press/chinese0soft0power0latin0america.>>> (.he core of Chinese soft po#er in Latin America2 as in the rest of the #orld2 is the #idespread perception that the 43C2 -eca se of its s stained high rates of economic gro#th and technolog" development2 #ill present tremendo s .S.[ in -==D to 3.-4 )illion# (6ainter. trade )etween the China and Batin America still pales in comparison to Batin American0G. which )rin s that num)er up si nificantly. &n eneral.U%S% exports and imports #ith the entire region are still vastl" greater than China’s2 .eca se perception drives soft po#er2 the nat re of the 43C impact on each co ntr" in Latin America is shaped -" its partic lar sit ation2 hopes2 fears2 and prevailing ideolog". Sino-Latin American trade increased tenfold over the last decade and investment has also increased% . total G. ?he Y:oli"arian socialistY re ime of Fu o ChU"e. totals . +e ional trade with the G.siness opport nities in the f t re2 and #ill -e a po#er to -e rec!oned #ith glo-all". &f trade with $e9ico throu h 'AF?A is ta*en away. . this perception can -e divided into seven areas() hopes for f t re access to Chinese mar!ets) hopes for f t re Chinese investment) infl ence of Chinese entities and infrastr ct re in Latin America) hopes for the 43C to serve as a co nter#eight to the United States and &estern instit tions) China as a development model) affinit" for Chinese c lt re and #or! ethic) China as Othe #ave of the f t re%O .html# &t is also important to clarify that soft po#er is -ased on perceptions and emotion (that is. Fowe"er. and not necessaril" on o-/ective realit"% Altho gh ChinaMs c rrent trade #ith and investment position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States2A its infl ence in the region is -ased not so much on the current si. Chile.t "ear -" "ear2 China is catching p and in some co ntries2 s rpassing the U%S.S. &ssue D>. :ut the trend is si nificant when loo*in at where China was in .>>= (Forn)ec*. 7FA: 7oint Force Auarterly2. G.nfl ence is -ased on perception – China is -eating the U%S% Ellis 11 (+. trade rowth with Batin America is e"en less impressi"e. inferences#. trade.5 . At the )e innin of the .[. .>>3#. and Colom)ia "iew the 6+C in more traditional terms as an important in"estor and tradin partner within the conte9t of lo)al free mar*et capitalism. 8oin )ac* a little further.>--#.4[ in .

4D )illion to .il :oard.Y China conLuers Batin America ?en years a o.-et#een E rope and Asia. the door opened to the east.Y said +afael Faddad.nfl ence 'igh – A$( E rope E rope is pale in comparison to China De <liveria 1A NAstrid 6ran e Me Jli"eira. concedes.dw. Meutsche <elles.D0.>->. are increasin ly e9posed to Asian competition. 8erman companies. ?hat is why 8erman Chancellor An ela $er*el is set to see* closer ties with her Batin American counterparts at the summit )etween the %G and the Community of Batin American and Cari))ean States (C%BAC# in the Chilean capital Santia o this wee*end (.ed )usinesses concentrated their resources there. Y$ore is e9pected of them than @ust free trade a reements.Y he says. 6arche says he )elie"es there is a Y reat futureY for colla)oration )etween 8erman and Batin American small and mid0si.D/-4.S. coordinator of the 8erman industry's Batin America &nitiati"e. too.Y $aihold told M<.China .8ermany is still one of the ma@or forei n in"estors in Batin America.il.-D> )illion in .>->. and mid0si.to . A -attle for access to Latin AmericaMs mar!ets is -eing #aged.. 8ermany is losin mar*et share Fowe"er. Jli"er 6arche.YChinese companies sometimes come with "ery attracti"e financin options with which we can not compete. deputy director of the 8erman &nstitute for &nternational and Security Affairs.>-.Y said 8^nther $aihold. Y?he most important Batin American countries ha"e "ery dynamic trade with the countries of the 6acific +im and China. Y?he %uropeans need to consider how to position themsel"es. Chinese manufacturers 7AC $otors and C' Auto ha"e set up shop alon with Ssan yon from South (orea 0 and competition for %uropean manufacturers such as C<./ )illion to . :ut 8ermany la ed )ehind its %uropean Spain -ecame the secondlargest investor after the United States2 #hile >erman" lost mar!et shares% nei h)ors when it came to )uyin up Batin American companies and resources: .ation pro rams. Y8ermany can't catch upY Accordin to the G' Conference on ?rade and Me"elopment (G'C?AM#. http://www. 8erman direct in"estment in Batin America dou)led from . offshore financial centers#.H> )illion. many Batin American countries em)ar*ed upon radical pri"ati. 8erman direct in"estment in the re ion rew o"er the same period from . :ut today. 8ermany's economic influence in Batin America has waned compared to the -==>s. &n the -==>s. does not see the rowin competition )etween Asia and %urope as a hu e pro)lem. Y)ut we will certainly impro"e our position in the comin years. Asia's presence in Batin America was insi nificant.Chinese and South (orean cars on Batin America's roads were as unthin*a)le as Chinese trains and roads. from . who currently teaches at the Fum)oldt &nstitute in $e9ico City.Y As Mi"ision Fead for 'orth and South America at the 8erman Cham)er of Commerce and &ndustry (M&F(#.>-4#. Faddad China increased its direct investment in Latin America and the Cari--ean from QE$1 million in $881 to nearl" QKK -illion in $818 (includin in"estment in the Cari))ean told M<. E ropean leaders are tr"ing to ma!e p lost gro nd at this year's annual %G0Batin America Summit in Chile.ed )usinesses. Accordin to a sur"ey )y the Cham)er of Commerce's Batin American Association. :y comparison. %urope losin out to Chinese conLuista.P ChinaMs gro#ing economic presence in Latin America comes at E ropeMs expense. Audi or :$< is earin up. YAfter 8erman reunification. ?he production "olume of local 8erman su)sidiaries alone totaled .>>. head of :ra.de/europe0losin 0out0to0chinese0conLuista/a0 -DHH-34. an association of 8erman companies in"estin in :ra.Y 6arche said.S. -/. )illion. Y&e cannot catch p #ith the Asian co ntries. Chinese companies are increasin ly tryin to )uy up Batin American companies.

Lin! .

?han*s to pro9imity as well as U%S% .S. don’t thin! that’s in o r interest.H percent of G.ilian ethanol and to settle a dispute o"er cotton su)sidies with the South American iantwould not only promote trade )ut would also clear the air )etween <ashin ton and :rasilia.113H 'o# then2 in the face of China’s gro#ing commercial and political relationships across the re ion. despite China1s efforts to secure access to Batin America1s natural resources and mar*ets. QQ& mean the" are .S.3S ?hus the administration m st recommit itself to )uildin on those solid foundations to reinforce and expand America’s economic ties #ith its neigh-ors to the so th% &n his . authori.S. security. the Gnited States should pri"ile e )uildin institutional capacity o"er the mere pro"ision of aid. China1s Strate ic 6enetration of Batin America: <hat &t $eans for G. Fence with its Batin American nei h)ors. prosperity of the nations of the <estern Femisphere. the free trade agreements with those two countries have still not -een ratified. undermined )y last year1s enactment of a measure cancelin a pilot pro ram that allowed carefully screened $e9ican truc*s to carry car o in the Gnited States. it )ecomes apparent that American interests are )est ad"anced )y more modest e9pectations and )etter tar etin of a"aila)le resources. mi ht American interests )e sec red and2 indeed2 advancedR First. tariffs on :ra.S. &n its en a ements with its Batin American and Cari))ean nei h)ors. A)out . rather than lament the passin of an era when the Gnited States unilaterally dictated the terms of en a ement the fact that the region is 99shaping its f t re far more than it o ght to -e #elcomed% Engaging Latin American governments and peoples on mutually a reea)le terms is )y far a more s staina-le fo ndation for #hat o ght to -e the goals of U%S% polic" in the region( the sta)ility. and. Second. G.S. <hen the trends to reater ownership )y the countries of the re ion of their own indi"idual destinies are added to the limitations that the current fiscal crisis and the )urdens of other challen es impose upon G.sinesses still have a comparative advantage over overseas competitors in the mar*ets of the <estern Femisphere.1NC – Lin! . $o"ement to repeal G. e9ports. the re ion remains an important source of ener y and other commodities for the Gnited States as well as a ma@or mar*et for American oods and ser"ices. especially since the <orld ?rade Jr ani. 6resident J)ama sin led out Colom)ia and 6anama as QQ*ey partners11 with which he promised to stren then trade relations.3= .: 4D4O43-P Clinton tellin an audience of Forei n Ser"ice officers durin a town hall fo nd the gains that China #as ma!ing in Latin America 99: ite dist r-ing. . 7. while the 'orth American Free ?rade A reement that came into force under 6resident :ill Clinton was lon standin familiarity.11 She went on to add. 6eter 6ham is senior "ice president of the 'ational Committee on American Forei n 6olicy and the incomin editor of American Forei n 6olicy &nterests.ilding ver" strong economic and political connections%%%% ..S% polic"ma!ers need to ac!no#ledge that America’s Latin American and Cari--ean neigh-ors matter to the United States not only for its traditional security interest in limiting the infl ence of o tside po#ers in the Americas )ut also )ecause All of this led to Secretary of State Fillary +odham meetin at the State Mepartment last year that she lo)ali. ?hird. shaped its past113D the re ion.33 Eet a-sent proactive &hite 'o se leadership. policy. in a rare mo"e. ener y imports come from Central and South American countries and the re ion )uys .>->.> percent of all of G.>-> State of the Gnion address.he plan limits China’s infl ence in the region – restarts U%S% – Latin . &nterests. 4.ies 4ham 18 NMr.ed the imposition of puniti"e sanctions a ainst American products. more than the %uropean Gnion. ultimately.ation has accelerated the momentum for the increased inte ration of all of the nations in the <estern Femisphere and re ional cooperation is reLuired to meet a whole host of transnational challen es ran in from spurrin economic rowth to ille al it is in the interests of the United States to rene# relations with the countries to its south )y de"elopin and artic lating a comprehensi"e strate y that clearl" p ts to rest the legac" of 99-enign neglect’’ of immi ration to narcotics traffic*in to en"ironmental issues. American Forei n 6olicy &nterests.ation has already ruled the su)sidies ille al and.

pu)lic conferences and assessments. <ashin ton. is having conse: ences for U%S% interests in other parts of the #orld.wilsoncenter. At the same time.C. 4 re economic theor".>>S. .ei/ing pro)a)ly might not have increased its role in Latin America had the 5iddle East not -een a ma@or distraction for &ashington o"er the past Z"e and a half years. and other warnin s alertin the Gnited States to China ha"in disco"ered Batin America. particularly in the newly lo)ali. http://www. t the distance -et#een Latin America’s experiences and those of China are even vaster.he United States and China claim that each is serio s a-o t adopting the economic philosoph" that ndergirds capitalism: economic gro#th is a net )eneZt for all.ei/ing #ill -e a-le to maintain the level of involvement in the region it alread" has2 without <ashin ton raisin too reat a ruc*us. particularly as the nation faces increased frustration with the reality of the $iddle %ast. rather than immediately creatin crucial. . leading to trade con_ icts. &ashington’s a-ilit" to foc s e: all" on all areas of the #orld is not possi-le. pro)a)ly more than the 43C -argained for #hen it -egan engaging more #ith Latin America o"er the past decade. leadership. &ndeed. China2 Latin America2 and the United States )eneZ t from the reater Chinese engagement in this re ion )ecause it creates competition.he plan loc!s China o t of Latin America – it ca ses a s staina-le fo ndation for relations #ith the U%S% #hich #ill limit the infl ence of o tside po#ers in the region – that’s 4ham Engagement is perceived as Rero-s m – sh ts o t China &atson 8@ NCynthia A. M. &t appears unli*ely that :ei@in will ways. For cultural and eo raphic reasons. and trade prowess for China as it has reached )eyond the isolationism of the Cultural +e"olution. is si niZ cant.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal. seriously accelerate its in"ol"ement in the re ion )ecause of the num)er of Con ressional hearin s. &n many . the ties -et#een the United States and Latin America o ght to -e stronger than those -et#een China and the Latins% Expectations of the strength of Latin America–U%S% ties have pro-a-l" al#a"s -een nrealistic and fran*ly ahistorical2 the two parts of the world actually ha"e a num)er of fundamental differences.ed world. %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America. 6rofessor of Strate y at 'ational <ar Colle e. always r ns p against political philosophies. and all0too0often a . <ashin ton must ma*e a more concerted effort to act as a gen ine partner #ith the region2 rather than relegating it to the position of secondar" or tertiary thou ht that assumes a)solute G.ei/ing’s increased involvement in Latin America reSects the unanticipated conse: ence of ettin #hat the &est hoped for from China. diplomatic. ran in from reli ion to ethnic homo eneity to historical roles in the world.S. protectionism. and tryin to sal"a e a peace of some sort without nuclear weapons in the $iddle %ast. not a +ero s m game% &f true. . <ashin ton has wanted :ei@in to moderni. &ith U%S% interests directed else#here2 it seems hi hly li!el" that . ?his was )ound to create more economic. ?o accelerate its in"ol"ement would ris* the relati"ely stron relations with <ashin ton at a time when other trade pro)lems and o"erall concerns a)out China1s rowin power are already risin in the Gnited States. :ut.ero sum "iew -ased on the international relations theor" of realpoliti*: #hat’s good for m" adversar" m st -e -ad for me% ?he ris*s of arousin realpoliti! in the United States.pdfP .ei/ing’s -est o tcome from its c rrent -alance of involvement in the area is pro-a-l" going to -e the long-term development of tr st and ties o"er se"eral decades with the leaders of this re ion. hi hly pu)lic ties )etween .e its economy. <atson.$NC – Lin! . . the ina-ilit" of &ashington to consider an"thing )eyond the concerns a)out terrorism spreadin around the world. howe"er.

hat the 43C 5inistr" of 6oreign Affairs nonetheless formall" descri-es . of Cene. ?he current eopolitical atmosphere in the <estern Femisphere seems more conduci"e to Chinese economic e9pansion than restricti"e. S%'&J+ F%BBJ<.D3 attempts to ta*e on :oli"ar1s mantle to restart this centuries0old dream.>->. %"entually. Fu o Cha`"e. sta)le set of ties. 6eter 6ham is senior "ice president of the 'ational Committee on American Forei n 6olicy and the incomin editor of American Forei n 6olicy &nterests.roo!es $88F (6eter ?. Fence China1s attracti"eness as an alternati"e mar*et and partner.DD in the hemisphereDH certainly do not put American policyma*ers and analysts at ease. American Forei n 6olicy &nterests. or perhaps more accurately. ChaTve+’s so-called .S. his increasin dalliances with the &slamic +epu)lic of &ran and assorted $iddle %astern ro ues ha"e raised further . ?F% F%+&?A8% FJG'MA?&J'. China is -eating the U%S% the reason solel" d e to economic relations 4ham 18 NMr.olivarian 3evol tion has -eg n to dra# attention. in :ei@in 's estimation.ei/ing’s relations #ith *ene+ ela as -eing a 99 strategic partnership’’DS is certainl" not ver" reass ring. . pro)a)ly the old tale of the tortoise and hare China’s -iggest gain #ill -e accomplished over a long time of getting to !no# the region2 rather than sho#ing p repeatedl" in the 9roc! star’ role which is too soon and too rash for a lon 0term... Jne Chinese analyst e"en ar ues that the 6+Cshould "iew the Cene.” Federal 'ews Ser"ice. where state )ecomin a lon 0term partner with its Batin American nei h)ors. political sta)ility and rowin military capa)ility. As so often appears true in the international system.uelan re ime1s schemes opportunistically.ild ne# political relationships a-road #hile exploiting dissatisfaction #ith the United States #herever possi-le . 4.1s with its am)itions to e9port its QQ:oli"arian +e"olution11 and China’s relationships with each country in the region. “F%A+&'8 JF ?F% <%S?%+' F%$&S6F%+% SG:CJ$$&??%% JF ?F% FJGS% &'?%+'A?&J'AB +%BA?&J'S CJ$$&??%%.n China.uelan leader1s support for the Castro )rothers1 dictatorship in Cu)a were not )ad enou h.ild a -road anti– United States coalition hac*les.+. as he . and some Batin American leaders are also determined to pursue. once China has gathered as man" allies and friends as possi-le and <ith increasin ly well de"eloped power deri"ed from economic rowth. From <ashin ton1s perspecti"e.: 4D4O43-P Admittedly there is reat "ariation as one e9amines )ut its lin*s with re imes li*e Fu o Cha`"e. Engagement !e" to ne trali+e Chinese infl ence – leadership is +ero s m . &nterests.itself and Batin American leaders. if the Cene. is the revival of the Latin American integration pro/ect started )y Simo`n :oli"ar at the )e innin of the nineteenth century. n-alance the predominance of the United States across the glo-e%) China is loo!ing to : ietl" se its gro#ing economic strength to . the United States% China is pursuin a forei n policy which aims to s pport ChinaMs national interests #hile attempting to )alance. particularly as a potential "ehicle for countries in Batin America to mo"e away from the $onroe Moctrine concept. China1s Strate ic 6enetration of Batin America: <hat &t $eans for G.# China sees its re-emergence as a glo-al po#er on its o#n terms as a certaint"% A s -set of ChinaMs grand strateg" is an opport nistic foreign polic" aimed at its main competitor for preeminence in the international system. 7. <ashin ton seems li*ely to #orr" a-o t the roc! star phenomenon2 rather than attemptin to mana e the emer ence of another applies here. Should the :oli"arian re ional inte ration proposal ain traction. &hat Chinese polic"ma!ers tr l" #ish to see. . .uela sees himself as the standard0)earer of a modern "ersion of this concept. the first logical priorit" #o ld -e to red ce the region’s dependence on the North American mar!et.

For e9ample.5 6ut simply. in an effort to succeed the Gnited States as the world's most powerful nation.e ?aiwan to shift allegiances to the 43C. China has militar" and sec rit" interests in Latin America as well. Africa. <e'"e tal*ed a)out that in Central and Batin America and the Cari))ean as well. China is sing its . &ts actions are worrisome in Batin America and the Cari))ean )ecause Fu o some national leaders2 s ch as *ene+ elaMs Chave+2 #elcome the arrival of another #orld po#er to offer an alternative to the United States. Ar entina. not surprisin ly. in $88K the Chinese Defense minister visited -oth .ai#an to the mainland's political control.ai#an internationally -" enticing co ntries that currently diplomatically reco ni.5 Jn ?aiwan. . in 'o"em)er . at America's e9pense where"er possi)le.it #ill -e a-le to challenge the United States directl" if necessary. ?his has )een well discussed today.4 )illion Chinese people. 5 Bi*e most other nations.5 ?hou h that point is not here today.hese investments made )y the Chinese o"ernment will ndo -tedl" -ring political infl ence as well. Murin his "isits to :ra. ChinaMs presence at Si nals . the $iddle %ast and Latin America.ntelligence facilities in C -a directed at the United States is lon 0standin and #ell !no#n2 .5 de"eloped its economic and military stren th to near that of other ma@or powers. is access to natural resources.and in the #orld -.replacing the United States as the world's most powerful nation. partic larl" interested in *ene+ ela. Jn resources. For ?aiwan. ?his is important to ?aiwan.ai#an and access to ra# materials2 especiall" energ".5 J)"iously petrole m leads the list of reso rces in So th and Latin America and the Cari--ean that China is interested in and we'"e tal*ed a)out that. Colom)ia and 5exico. %urope. includin an unwillin ness to renounce the use of force to resol"e ?aiwan's future. )ut t#o iss es predominate( . Chinese intelligence services are ndo -tedl" active in Latin America and the Cari--ean2 sing Chinese front companies2 st dents2 visitors and intelligence officers to steal and exploit technolog" and commercial secrets of interest to enhance their militar" pro#ess and economic competitiveness. includin eo raphic pro9imity.> years.5 &n addition. ?he importance of Batin America and the Cari))ean to China is multifold. that they loo* li"in for the -. :ut if &ashington #ants to ne trali+e . China is committed to impro"in the performance of its economy and spreadin its political influence.ts grand strateg" is to -ecome the preeminent po#er in the 4acific -.5 &n conclusion. . And & commend to the committee. .il and Ar entina. may)e not this su)committee. <ne of ChinaMs tactics is an effort to politicall" isolate . .rgeoning economic po#er to gain political and economic infl ence internationally. at China's in"ol"ement in other parts of the world includin Africa which is a "ery interestin study in itself. China is employin e"ery instrument of its national power to effect unification with ?aiwan. As such. China has achie"ed unparalleled rowth in its power. as ha"e )een discussed pre"iously. culture and lan ua e.ra+il and C -a2 ad since the late 1HH8s2 at least one high-level visit has ta!en place ever" "ear to *ene+ ela.he 43C #ill not feel its rise to po#er is complete #itho t ret rning . China's other interest. especially ener y. the states of Central America and the Cari--ean2 and 4arag a" represent a relativel" solid regional commitment to its stat s as a state separate from China . Since China's o"ernment is not popularly elected.>>/. influence and importance o"er the last . China is ma*in pro ress on )oth accounts.5 China is also on a military diplomacy offensi"e across the lo)e. China is p rs ing a OrealistO foreign polic" in order to advance its national interests% ?he e9istence of dissatisfaction #ith &ashington or American policies in lo)al capitals onl" ma!es it easier% ChinaMs grand strateg" certainl" applies to Latin America and the Cari--ean2 too. China ses militar" exchanges to gather information on the host co ntr" as well as other countries if possi)le for militar" doctrine development as #ell as militar" intelligence purposes. its claim to le itimacy has )een its a)ility to impro"e the standard of Sto!ing the economic f rnaces also allo#s China to contin e its nprecedented militar" .t China is also esta-lishing militar" ties in Latin America as well.he 43C is see!ing friends and alliances to advance its agenda in Asia.p2 s pported primarily -" 3 ssian arms sales2 and to provide overseas aid 00 often without conditions 00 to countries of interest in an effort to spread its infl ence.ild. Chinese president Fu Jintao anno nced plans to invest Q188 -illion in Latin America o"er the ne9t decade.5 ?here are challen es to China's ad"ances in Batin America and the Cari))ean. %cuador.

ChinaMs gro#ing infl ence in the #estern hemisphere2 it needs to ta!e action% An effective strateg" #o ld incl de expanding its o#n free trade net#or!2 helping friendl" nations develop strong mar!et economies2 fostering closer2 more cooperative sec rit" relations #ith o r Latin American and Cari--ean neigh-ors% .

)ut Latin America has an a. China1s acti"e in"ol"ement in Batin American eopolitics can )e traced )ac* to . “win0win. Ean e9plains that competition )etween :ei@in and <ashin ton is “ine"ita)le %1 And then he ends his piece with this thou ht: “China’s : est to enhance its #orld leadership stat s and America’s effort to maintain its present position is a +ero-s m game%1 Tero0sum competitionR ?hat1s not the way <ashin ton1s forei n policy specialists see the international system. ar ues that. ancient philosophers predicted. As a si n of its rowin importance. S/->/-4. the State Mepartment.ch/Mi ital0Bi)rary/Articles/Metail/Rid\-DD.” Ean.or /)lo / ordon0 0chan /china0 ta*es0america0.. &n short. e"en without democracy..>>=. the fight for infl ence in another area could )e e"en more importantILatin America. 6resident Ii #ent to 5exico and Costa +ica to foster economic cooperation. and ?rinidad and ?o)a o. the country that displays more humane authority will win. <ith a win0win mind0set. 'aturally.ndance of nat ral reso rces2 greater p rchasing po#er2 and geographic proximit" to the United States. China1s imports to 6eru. http://www. misdescri)es the current lo)al situation.ero0sum0 ameP China can present a more attractive model to the #orld than the United States and therefore #in over allies aro nd the glo-e. ma*in China 6eru1s lar est tradin partner. ran* second with -4. howe"er. Batin Murin the first wee*end of 7une../--.Lin! – A$( Not Rero S m . o"ernments around the world ha"e sou ht to “en a e” China. &n . nurture it.H percent.S percent of the mar*et while the Gnited States holds first place with . +esearch Fellow at the Council on Femispheric Affairs and is a contri)utin writer for 8lo)al Coices.ei/ing has so ght to pend and replace it #ith something more friendl" to its )rand of authoritarianism. a distillation of his recently released )oo*. Fe is a columnist at For)es.>>=. and so it sho ld come as no s rprise that its leaders vie# geopolitics as an . and ease its entry into the international community.4 percent of its e9ports to China. which has long considered Latin America as its 0-ac!"ard%1 ?he *ey Luestion no# is #ill Latin American co ntries lean more to#ard China or the United States. si ned a . and mali ns the Gnited States. “As China1s &n “Fow China Can Mefeat America.S> million wharf in the Callao port.t’s a "esDno : estion – infl ence is +ero-s m Chang 11 N8ordon.” &n ma*in his points. &n the pro"ocati"e op0ed. li)eral institutions are seen as a threat to China1s one0party state. Ean distorts Chinese history. Fe has i"en )riefin s at the 'ational &ntelli ence Council. )illion deal with 6eru to )uild the ?oromocho mine and a .. and the 6enta on. Since the end of the Second <orld <ar. Jther emer in mar*ets in Africa. 6resident :arac* and territorial claims in the 6acific +im. GS and China: ?he Fi ht for Batin America. <hile tension on these topics has ho American countries are increasin ly confident than*s to )ur eonin economic and political inte ration )y way of tradin )locs.. Since then. Chinalco.worldaffairs@ournal. they ha"e )elie"ed that e"ery nation can )etter its lot with free mar*ets.S. 6eru has sent -3. Latin America more than China1s lar est minin company.il. Shortly after these trips.-#in2 "o -lose proposition% :ut U%S% and China have to fight for infl ence – there can onl" -e oneU *alencia 1A N+o)ert. or will it find a way to )alance the two a ainst each otherR +i ht now.t is the -attle for people’s hearts and minds that #ill determine #ho event all" prevails21 Ean writes. G.--/. Chinese leaders ha"e eschewed all three of these “<estern” concepts. free trade. China has the upper hand with the Batin American leftist countries in terms of infrastructure and technolo y. Chinese telephone manufacturer T?% played an instrumental role in assem)lin the first mo)ile phone in .China ?a*es on America in a 'Tero0Sum 8ame'.com and the Maily.>=P <-ama and Chinese 6resident Ii 7inpin met in California to discuss cy)er espiona e ed the headlines. the Chinese state has prospered in such a )eni n en"ironment.” and assure us they )elie"e in it. perhaps :ei@in 1s leadin international relations analyst. i"in them an opportunity to "iew his o"ernment in a more realistic li ht. )ut they ha"e appropriated that awful phrase.isn. China and the United States have co rted s al% &n $ay. :ra. and they're demandin to )e treated as an eLual player./. where China has an o"erwhelmin influence due to forei n direct in"estment in minin and oil.. 6resident :arac* J)ama "isited $e9ico and Costa +ica while Cice 6resident 7oe :iden "isited Colom)ia. instead of accepting the international s"stem as it #as Ithe fond hope of the en a ersI . and free politics. the Central &ntelli ence A ency. Eet alon the way he also performs a "alua)le ser"ice for Americans. “. also offer economic opportunities. http://www.eth.

?he Counter)alance in America1s :ac*yard.uelan. China1s )oldest mo"e in the re ion is the possi)le construction of a massi"e canal in 'icara ua. 6etro)ras.>--.here can onl" -e one hegemon. China1s rise portends a chan e in the status Luo. to e9tend $ercosur with the inclusion of :oli"ia and %cuador and to hinder the G. $e9ico and 6eru. Colom)ian diplomat 'oemi Sanin claimed that China had influenced &C71s decision. presence.” Accordin ly.il1s state0owned oil company. an economist and principal of Cordo)a 8roup &nternational BBC.S.uela and has )ecome a ma@or )uyer of farm products and metal in South America. &n .>-. raised the ire of en"ironmentalists and nei h)orin Colom)ia. $ercosur (or the Southern Common $ar*et#. dollar as a medium of e9chan e allowin :ra. anti0Americanism and a desire to -rea! #ith the tutela e of American mandarins have long dominated political narratives in the Americas ./P Since the 5onroe Doctrine.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America. ?here is no e"idence for this. ?he 'icara uan canal would ha"e a lar er draft.-> )illion loan in . and the enactment ranted a Fon (on 0)ased company permission to )uild and control the canal for nearly ->> years. CA' (the Andean Community of 'ations#. howe"er. 'icara uan 6resident Maniel Jrte a pushed the 'ational Assem)ly to appro"e the multi0)illion dollar plan in 7une. to )loc* the reincorporation of Cene. ->/. a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies. at ?he Ferita e Foundation../>> for e"ery Cene. .and . 8i"en the insta)ility of the Cene. is de"elopin offshore oil deposits in e9chan e for oil shipments of -H>.//>H. :ra. A similar . $aintained in power )y Cene. China has also maintained an acti"e mar*et with :ra.0created radical AB:A (:oli"arian Alliance of the Americas#. unli*e the former So"iet Gnion O once descri)ed as a third world country with nuclear weapons O China has the economic reso rces to create an alternative loc s of financing2 trade and development% Chinese infl ence depends on U%S% desertion. up from H..il1s top diplomats.4 )illion a year in re"enue at . and potentially political. From the perspecti"e of Batin America1s forei n policy ma*ers. Former 6resident Fu o ChU"e. United States po#er has -een an existential fact-oflife in the Americas. e9plainin : “K :ra. counter)alance to the G.uelan 6resident Fu o ChU"e.>-. and C%BAC (the Community of Batin American and Cari))ean 'ations#.ilian minin company Companhia :rasileira de $etalur ia e $ineracao. introduced this new phone to low0income families ma*in it the world1s cheapest phone (.4> )illion in trade in local currency.uela1s "ast oil wealth.plan reverses that Johnson 8F NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies.ed )y the lac* of a G. this year presided o"er )y Cu)a.S. canals.com/forei n0policy/the0counter)alance0in0americas0 )ac*yard0. ?he scheme commits Cene.uela slan for optimal#. Bast $ay. million tons of soy from Ar entina.>.>>> )arrels per day.economic infl ence shifts the -alance of po#er 5enende+ 1A NFernando $enande.>>> sLuare *ilometers of its Cari))ean maritime territory to 'icara ua )efore the &nternational Court of 7ustice (&C7#. and only the presence of a country capa)le of pro@ectin superior economic and political po#er co ld significantl" shift the -alance of forces a#a" from the c rrent hegemon. especially i"en the o)@ecti"es of some Batin American countries. million in .3/-4. China is undenia)ly a welcome economic. ?he risin prices.>>.>>>0. H/.D. the loan is considered )y many e9perts as hi h ris*.>->. Chinese @ustice Wue FanLin *new )eforehand a)out 'icara ua1s intention to rant the canal construction to China since Wue was a collea ue of Carlos Ar uello.uela into the 'orth American economy.and . which recently lost S>. <ritin in the 8uardian on Jcto)er .>>= in return for hundreds of thousands of )arrels per day. Additionally. Some analysts see this as a first step to a future renmin)i tradin )loc. $ost recently. a role0player in the maritime case.# CM:1s loans amount to an estimated . CM: placed a third of its o"erseas loans O an astoundin . ?he deal drops the G. China purchased nearly H3. :etween .ilian oil company 6etro)ras a .>-. )ut it shows Colom)ia1s an9iety of China’s gro#ing clo t in the region and how it can pset -alances of po#er% .uelan re ime.. e"en Luipped: “6oor $e9ico.-H. Accordin to Sanin. )enefitted reatly from the rowin worldwide and Chinese demand for petroleum. the ChU"e. Samuel 6inheiro 8uimares. ..-> )illion loan to :ra.” Despite its preocc pation #ith the 5iddle East and its recent economic tro -les2 the U%S% remains a predominant actor in the region . loans and other )enefits of Chinese wealth ha"e also )ri htened prospects for the emer ence of trade and other pacts characteri. and depth than the 6anama and Sue. so far from 8od2 so close to the Gnited States.uela *nown as “%l Cer atario” (Cene. For many in the Americas. are all alternati"e "enues a)sent the Gnited States and Canada. Cene. $e9ico1s former dictator 6orfirio Mba.S.il to *eep its reser"es of reen)ac*s for other purposes. $oreo"er.ation of American States (JAS#.->> a )arrel. pro@ect to consolidate the 6acific Alliance. ?he appro"al of this plan. http://www. which includes Chile./> )illion O in Cene.-. a sort of alternati"e to the Jr ani.uela to supplyin /-=.>-.il. three Chinese metal companies purchased :ra. @ournalist +acl Ti)ec*i cites one of :ra.>>> )arrels of oil a day to China (or a)out . Colom)ia. China landed rail construction pro@ects in Ar entina and Cene. len th.== for a handset#.il1s strate y sou ht to pre"ent the Qremo"al1 of ChU"e. Chinese oil company Sinopec and China Me"elopment :an* offered :ra.Cene.chinausfocus.uela. throu h a coup. &n a loan0for0oil scheme uaranteein China a steady flow of oil for ten years.S..il and China si ned an a reed to conduct .

&t also holds o)ser"er status in the Jr ani.. they ma*e open statements a ainst us..or /research/reports/.YN. YN?Phe -==>s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free mar!ets led to rampant corr ption and nf lfilled expectations in Latin America #hile &ashington -ecame the #orldMs s perpo#er rather than a partner for the region%OL4P promote power pro@ection and descri)e G. a senior fellow at the +and Corporation. one of the non0<estern ci"ili.t no# pla"s !e" roles in Asian geopolitics and aspires to do so else#here. the <orld ?rade Jr ani. and su est that .US inc rsion disr pts the -alance of soft po#er and incites militant Chinese opposition D"non $81A ('icholas. Jn the other is China. includin 7apan and the 6hilippines.” 7une -. it challenges U%S% infl ence #herever it can% &n fact.ation.S. 5 ?he cy)er attac*s and )rin*smanship in the China Sea raise concerns.S.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP ChinaMs main rival for lo)al preeminence is the United States. with the addition of four +ussian (ilo0class su)s and new diesel0electric "essels eLuipped with technolo y that will allow them to run Luieter than nuclear su)marines. Am)assador to :ei@in 7ames Billy. YN?Phe facts are that Nthe ChineseP run massi"e intelli ence operations a ainst us.ei/ingMs rise as a po#er.S. allied to the GS. cultural e9chan es and lan ua e instruction.N-P Accordin to former G.ei/ing has o tfoxed &ashington in a contest that echoes the legendar" >reat >ame2 #hen London and 5osco# -attled for dominance in Central Asia%5 &n this scenario. policies as Yhe emonism and power politics.Y Chinese military white papers 2 the Chinese are ta*in ad"anta e of failures of half-hearted mar!et reforms and &ashingtonMs n#illingness to p rs e neigh-orhood relations #ith m ch enth siasm% 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity professor Cynthia A. he says. China sees the United States as preventing .he US and China are loc!ed in an ideological stalemate . http://thediplomat.he contest involves Osoft po#erO as China see!s ra# materials to f el economic expansion2 gro#ing infl ence on #orld c rrenc" mar!ets2 and more dan erous )rin*smanship.P &n the <estern Femisphere Soft po#er is finite and demands competition -et#een the US and China Ne# Realand 'erald $81A (“Settin rules for a new ame. the Asia0 6acific. . 4revio sl".http://www. the US and China are engaged in a glo-al game2 evident in the $iddle %ast2 Latin America2 Africa. it is a mem)er of the G. :esides status as a nuclear nation. Security Council. and the Asia 6acific %conomic Cooperation roup.Y says +ichard Solomon. trade partner after Canada.herita e. .S. :ut as the GS )eats a retreat from Af hanistan.'. 5 .0China :attle roundR” 7une -= th.ations that Samuel Funtin ton noted )ac* in -==4 “increasingl" have the desire2 the #ill and the reso rces to shape the #orld in non-&estern #a"s. “Soft 6ower: A G. the G.pro@ect.ation of American States. e"ident in cy)er attac*s on the <est and in sa)re0rattlin a ainst an9ious nei h)ours. Jn one side )ristles incum)ent <estern "alues he emon. Ya)out a drift towards confrontationY. <atson notes.ai#anMs re nification with the mainland and th#arting . 6hM candidate at $acLuarie Gni"ersity and coordinator of the Bine .”5 :ut to shape the world in non0<estern ways means engaging in a soft po#er -attlespace against an inc m-ent #ho alread" holds the high gro nd. a "ital frontier in the era of cy)er warfare.# ?hat ne"er happened.com/china0power/soft0power0a0u0s0china0)attle round/.trillion from the war0ra"a ed nation. China #as isolated.# Strip a#a" the ostensi-l" -enign s rface of p -lic diplomac" . 5 O. it will soon ha"e more attac* su)marines than the Gnited States. <hile China has )ecome the second0lar est G.S. political .here is a high level of distr st existing2 and e"en gro#ing2 -et#een the t#o co ntries. their hi h0le"el documents show that they are not friendly to us. Biu comments that in regions deepl" infl enced -" &estern c lt res. e"en outer space. and it -ecomes clear that the U%S% and China are engaged in a soft po#er conflagration – a protracted c lt ral cold #ar. the 8roup of SS de"elopin nations. conser"ati"es rail that China will e9ploit mineral wealth worth GS.

&n a pri"ate speech deli"ered to Communist 6arty mem)ers last Mecem)erIwhich was first reported )y Seein +ed in ChinaI Wi 7 inping arg ed that the Soviet Union had collapsed -eca se none of its mem-ers had -een 0man eno gh to stand p and resist1 the onsla ght of &estern ideals .he rhetoric of c lt re #ar contin es to emanate from the CC4. .Y Gnder such circumstances.ation without “westerni.systems and "alues. soft power is dri"en )y the imperati"e of “maintainin GS he emony in chan in the world. &t has thus ta*en myriad internal measures to ensure the country1s post0 $ao reforms remain an e9ercise in moderni. the “latecomer” China is considered a 0dissident force .5 :ut it1s actually inside China1s )orders where the soft power stru and the G.S. G. “it is rather difficult for China to attract <estern countries with its own political and cultural charisma. perceptions of China are dominated )y such concepts as the “China threat theory. <u 7ianmin. the former president of China1s Forei n Affairs Gni"ersity. <hile such machinations may )e "iewed as post0leadership chan e posturin . ?hrou h these lenses. which #arned that 0adopting &estern ideas #o ld p sh the nation into a dead end and dash hopes for realising the 9Chinese dream%1Y . when he #arned that international hostile forces are intensif"ing the strategic plot of &esternising and dividing China V .” which portrays China as a male"olent superpower upstart. is most prominent.5 le )etween China <fficial prono ncements from Chinese leaders have long pla"ed p the notion that &estern c lt re is an aggressive threat to China’s o#n c lt ral sovereignt". ideological doctrine has -een increasingl" inf sed #ith a ne# c lt ral nationalism2 and the 4art"’s previo sl" archaic propaganda s"stem has -een massivel" overha led and #or!ing harder than ever. puts the point well when e9plainin that replace their positions. let alone to China’s diffic lt" in pro/ecting soft po#er across the #orld is in part d e to the #a" the U%S% leverages its o#n soft po#er.deological and c lt ral fields are the focal areas of their long-term infiltration%1 ) . for e9ample.ei/ing’s long-held sensitivit" to the inc rsions of the 0aggressive1 soft po#er of the &est .”5 ?hus.he co ntr"’s niversit" lect rers have also -een ordered to avoid disc ssing certain topics reflecting &estern val es2 s ch as press freedom and civil rights .>-. ?hen.5 %specially after the J ne Kth crac!do#n and the collapse of the Soviet Union2 China’s leaders nder Jiang Remin -egan addressing the c lt ral -attlespace #ith rene#ed vigor% 3esol tions la nched in 1HHE called for the 4art" to 0carr" for#ard the cream of o r traditional c lt re2 prevent and eliminate the spread of c lt ral gar-age2 LandN resist the conspirac" -" hostile forces to 9&esterni+e’ and 9split’ o r co ntr"V%1 Fu Jintao trumpeted the same theme in early . the" ne"ertheless reflect .”5 Accordin to this and similar "iewpoints. the state of lo)al post0colonial. So th China 5orning 4ost reported on an article in the fla ship CC6 pu)lication See*in ?ruth. post0communist ideational he emony is such that large s#athes of the earth’s pop lation see the #orld thro gh lenses s pplied -" the &est. in recent days. of lettin the world listen to the Gnited States.S.” Since the 1HH8s.ation.

#here estimates of recovera-le heav" oil range from 1@F -illion to 1%E trillion -arrels .5 As we all *now. China is also interested in developing the Canadian tar sands.n Africa. o"er the ne9t . “China <al*s Softly :ut Carries a :i Chec*)oo*. the United States ma" not loo! so approvingl" on the rise of another glo-al pla"er2 a rival for infl ence2 for alliances2 and for access to nat ral reso rces% China desperatel" needs ne# so rces of energ" to s stain its expanding econom"2 and -" $8A8 it pro-a-l" #ill -e importing some P8 percent of its oil% . As the #orldMs second-largest cons mer of oil2 China is a leading competitor of the United States in the search for oil2 gas and minerals in Central and South %ast Asia./ million )arrels a day. oil is a finite reso rce and the competition to exploit it a +ero-s m game% . $ost of all.5 6artner or ri"alR For now. “F%A+&'8 JF ?F% <%S?%+' F%$&S6F%+% SG:CJ$$&??%% JF ?F% FJGS% &'?%+'A?&J'AB +%BA?&J'S CJ$$&??%%. For instance.in economic rowth%) &ith the largest oil reserves o tside the 5iddle East and a president who says that his country needs to di"ersify its ener y )usiness )eyond the Gnited States. and the $iddle %ast. :ut at some point.he more glo-al oil the Chinese go--le p2 the less oil availa-le to flo# into American po#er plants2 commercial tr c!s and home heating s"stems% &eMve alread" seen the effect at the gas p mp as gas prices move ever higher. Former +epresentati"e from &ndiana's Hth Mistrict.olivia and Colom-ia% Furthermore.>.# 5"anmar provides an earl" glimpse of #hat China is -ecoming% After "ears foc sing on its o#n econom"2 China has -eg n to go glo-al in infl ence as #ell as economics% &ith gro#ing interests aro nd the glo-e--from mines in 4er to peace!eepers across Africa to pipelines into Central Asia00China is finding it can no longer live -" its doctrine of Ononintervention%O .> years. Asia. China has also signed accords #ith 4er and is no# exploring pro/ects in . Latin America. and its national cons mption is pro/ected to rise to 1$%P million -arrels a da" from H. Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Forei n +elations.S. <ashin ton has encoura ed :ei@in to do the diplomatic hea"y liftin for ne otiations to rid 'orth (orea of its nuclear weapons pro ram. the $iddle %ast. now uses .# Latin America is an attractive destination for China as it is an area of the world that is rich in mineral reso rces2 commodities and partic larl" energ" so rces .ei/ingMs attention. )y comparison. China is -eginning to se its infl ence in #a"s that ma" prove pro-lematic for the United States .” Federal 'ews Ser"ice. sLuee. rton $88F (Man. G. accordin to the Gnited States %ner y Mepartment. the :ush administration is applaudin when China plays a complementary role. Au ust D.his potentiall" p ts China into . 'ews V <orld +eport. with nearly -. million )arrels of it imported.5 Competition over nat ral reso rces means infl ence is +eros m ? rlant+ic! $88@ (7oshua. that oil #ill need to -e imported. ?he Gnited States.HD million )arrels now.Lin! – A$( Not Rero S m <il Spec Cooperation is impossi-le – nat ral reso rces are finite . *ene+ ela has emerged as an o-vio s contender for . Africa and now in Latin America% China alone acco nts for K8 percent of the glo-al gro#th in oil demand in the last fo r "ears .

Bate last month. sh said upon completion of an oil deal with :ei@in last Mecem)er.t .'s state0run oil company and e"en e9tended a . China r ns t#o oil fields in *ene+ ela and plans to develop a do+en more% . .he United States2 #hich imports half its oil from *ene+ ela2 5exico and other Latin American co ntries2 isnMt sed to nat ral reso rce competition in its -ac! "ard% No# . )uild homes for the country's poor.ei/ing2 nder the corporate g ise of the China National <ffshore <il Corp%2 offers Q1P%F -illion for Unocal.rade -et#een the t#o co ntries is expected to do -le to QA -illion this year. “Batin America wary of China e9pansion.5 YNo# #e are free2 and place this oil at the disposal of the great Chinese fatherland2O Chave+ a Latin American nemesis of ."s 1$82888 -arrels of oil a month from 6resident Fu o Cha"e. the U%S% 'o se of 3epresentatives over#helmingl" passed a resol tion declaring that the Chinese company's p rchase of Unocal #o ld Othreaten to impair the national sec rit" of the United States%O . contri)utor to Co9 'ews Ser"ice.# Closer to home.S>> million line of credit to help Cha"e.competition #ith other ma/or oil-importing nations2 incl ding the United States% <il tradeoffs are +ero s m Chapman $88F (Man.5 .” 7uly -D.

there is a cost to pa" for Chinese assistance2 and that cost is diplomatic and economic. Ar entina. Luote. & thin* it is clear that China's state su)sidies. a status that precludes anti0 dumpin tariffs.5 Eet e"en this impressi"e fi ure pales in comparison with what 6resident Fu and his dele ation pled ed in future support.>/ )illion into the re ion.S.5 ?he "irtual flood of Chinese e9ports is eatin away at local industries in Central and South America.-.il and Chile reco ni.t is not hard to imagine the impact this n-level pla"ing field is having on the economies of the smaller co ntries in Latin America% & ha"e lon ur ed the administration to ta*e a more hard0line approach to China's unfair tradin practices. it e9pects to recei"e with the other. After 6resident Fu's "isit.5 ?he Gnited States has the most dynamic and powerful economy in the world and yet pleased that some success has )een achie"ed on the Luestion of China's artificially de"alued currency. Former +epresentati"e from &ndiana's Hth Mistrict. rantin China full ChinaMs ret rn on its investments in Latin America goes -e"ond sec ring ChinaMs dominant trade position% China is lending s pport to the nations of Latin America and expects in !ind s pport from them in m ltilateral #orld for ms% China #ants Latin AmericaMs votes at the United Nations and other for ms to co nter-alance U%S% infl ence2 particularly on the sensiti"e su)@ect of ?aiwan mar*et economy status would )e.>>4. in my "iew.>>4 to Jcto)er . Chinese state0owned enterprises pumped . and poor la)or ri hts conditions disLualify China from truly deser"in . )illion. we ha"e more wor* to do and & ur e 6resident :ush and the administration to continue to *eep the issue of Chinese trade practices on the &nternational a enda. :ra. )illion in -==H to .3 )illion in . ?hat is the lar est trade deficit we ha"e with any nation on earth and one0si9th of our total trade deficit. railroads.-. Accordin to the G. a ra"e error in @ud ment.-D. some K88 agreements and . the yuan. &n other words. Chinese state-o#ned enterprises are d e to invest nearl" Q$8 -illion in the comin decade in mines. and here in the Gnited States.-4.ed China as a. Bast year alone. they ha"e not set a timeta)le for doin so. from Jcto)er even o r econom" and ind stries are -eing staggered -" the massive trade im-alance #ith China% . ?hese unfair Chinese trade policies and practices ha"e e9acer)ated trade deficits across the re ion. in . &n Ar entina." the end of his trip.ra+il2 Argentina2 Chile and C -a% . Eet China contin es to pirate intellect al propert"2 prod ce co nterfeit goods2 and d mp these and other prod cts into mar!ets in this hemisphere2 and engage in c rrenc" manip lation. &n 'o"em)er .." the "ear $81F2 the Chinese intend for their investments in the re ion to top Q188 -illion.>>/. acco nting for AE%F percent of Latin AmericaMs foreign direct investment . China's 6resident. Census' Federal ?rade :ureau.” Federal 'ews Ser"ice. :ut what China i"es with one hand. its currency pe . Luote. Clearly. Canada's trade deficit with China rew from . . Ymar*et economy status.Y ConseLuently. rton $88F (Man.siness deals had -een signed. and $e9ico's trade deficit with China rew HS.S percent in one year. Canada and $e9ico ha"e also )een su)@ected to China's unfair trade policies and practices. . “F%A+&'8 JF ?F% <%S?%+' F%$&S6F%+% SG:CJ$$&??%% JF ?F% FJGS% &'?%+'A?&J'AB +%BA?&J'S CJ$$&??%%. ' 2 visited .>>/ the Gnited States' trade deficit with China reached nearly .>>/. Ymar*et economy. <hile the Chinese ha"e ac*nowled ed in recent months that they will need to e"entually let the Euan float openly on the world currency mar*ets. and & am . and other infrastructure pro@ects.Y unLuote.# <il is -" no means the onl" ind str" in Latin America receiving a h ge infl x of Chinese mone". & would also caution our friends throu hout Batin America a)out rantin China full mar*et economy status.Lin! – A$( <nl" <il is Rero S m Even if there’s no competition over oil2 Latin America #ill -ecome a -attlefield for competing economic models .

those officials in China and Latin America might -e -est served -" recogni+ing that China. and is potentiall" more fragile than often nderstood (commodity )ooms can )e followed )y )usts.ation is healthy. //D/-. includin with Latin America2 represent a different approach than that of the United States or %urope. <hether or not this industriali. or e"en the product of Chinese o"ernment policies is de)ata)le. Eet2 there is2 in fact.ation and therefore has a "oracious appetite for raw materials. or at least prices re"ertin to their historical downward trend#. at least in terms of its trade and investment relationship #ith commodit"rich co ntries in Latin America and else#here2 is more 0normal1 than man" recogni+e or #o ld li!e to admit.. http://carne ieendowment.ation and ur)ani.or /.t’s . China1s Batin American &nterests. :ut the irony is that lost in all of this de)ate is that China’s economic ties to Latin America have important similarities to the historical experience of other rapidl" ind striali+ing co ntries% ?hat is.Lin! – A$( . <hat is clear is that for all of China’s efforts to emphasi+e its different approach to dealing #ith developing co ntries2 the str ct re of its trade relationship #ith Latin America loo!s ver" similar to historical relationships -et#een the ind striali+ing co ntries of the 0North1 and the commodit"-rich developing co ntries of the 0So th%” And difficult Luestions that Chinese minin or other firms in Batin America face a)out la)or or the en"ironment are "ery similar to those confronted )y American or %uropean firms in the past. China has lon promoted its forei n policy principles of respect for so"erei nty and commitment to noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries.>-.the relationship is still fragile 6erchen 1$ N$att.oo Late Not too late. ?o hi hli ht this difference.he real challenges for government and . +%S&M%'? SCFJBA+ CA+'%8&%0?S&'8FGA C%'?%+ FJ+ 8BJ:AB 6JB&CE.siness officials in China and Latin America attemptin to create a s staina-le and sta-le long-term economic and political relationship are( the relationship is still ver" ne#2 is relativel" narro# (in its commodity )asis#. sustaina)le. China is under oin an intense period of industriali. ?hat is. a heated -attle to portra" the relationship in a positive or negative light and much wealth and presti e are on the line.he Chinese government goes to great lengths to emphasi+e that its relations #ith the de"elopin world. ./>//>D/china0s0latin0american0interests/aSa"P . .

such as counternarcotics. G. America should drop its a ricul0 tural and steel su)sidies that dissuade potential partners and cost ta9payers money.mproved U%S% trade relations with Andean nei h)ors (and e"entually Southern Cone countries# #ill open mar!et access for -oth U%S% and Latin American enterprises and pro"ide an outlet for industrial rowth. Constraints such as annual certifications on counternarcotics cooperation and Article =3 letters that withhold security assistance occasionally )ac*fire )y withdrawin support for allies in areas of mutual interest. .he United States and China have competing interests in Latin America% &ashington #o ld li!e to see its hemispheric neigh-ors develop into sta-le. such commerce could delay needed reforms and indus0 AmericaMs strength is competition. 6lan Colom-ia is #or!ing -eca se the United States is helping Colom-ia to com)at terrorism. ?his policy should )e followed to triali. interests. which is mostly reacti"e toward Batin America.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America. the reatest e9tent possi)le. stren then institutions. 6ress harder for reforms and use pu)lic diplomacy. it should tai0 lor them to suspend only economic aid that is not crucial to immediate G. a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies. leaves vac ms in other areas s ch as sec rit" assistance and trade capacity de"elopment that other powers can fill. &n contrast. reacti"ate the economy.ones.N--P Cut red tape on assistance. democratic2 prospero s trade partners that em)race the rule of law.S.ation that mi ht lift Batin America's near ma@ority underclass out of po"erty. &f Con ress considers such restrictions a)solutely necessary.Lin! – . 6erformance reLuirements are )lunt instruments that do not co"er e"ery situation. ->/. the United States sho ld( Accelerate free trade a reements. and influential oli archs. and promote rural peace.rade . China represents an opport nit" to temper American dominance with )roader alliances. and it sho ld infl ence the r les of the game in that direction . e9pand pu)lic safety .ei/ing sees the region as a so rce of ra# materials2 a mar!et for man fact red goods2 and a platform for po#er pro/ection% U%S% interests pro)a)ly coincide more #ith Latin American needs.herita e. +e retta)ly. As an inducement. Jnce Batin America had elected leaders and fled lin mar*ets in the -==>s. Adopt more comprehensi"e relationships.ncreasing economic engagement thro gh trade sh ts o t Chinese interests Johnson 8F NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies. Single-iss e diplomac" that emphasi+es U%S% interests . . sho ld -e strengthened and more s pportive of U%S% development goals% . As a good neigh-or and in its own and Batin America's interests.or /research/reports/.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP . 6ree trade agreements have -een the hallmar! of U%S% policies toward the re ion since the -==>s.S. Chinese aid and commodity imports may )uy time for state industries. Althou h each country is responsi)le for sol"in its own pro)lems.//>H. powerful presidents. support for democracy and economic reforms declined. $ost of all. e9ternal pressure can encoura e pro ress% U%S% p -lic diplomac". at ?he Ferita e Foundation. http://www.

Jn Sunday. 6resident Wi's "isit to $e9ico. ''As e9cited as Batin American o"ernments are a)out the Still. . 6resident Wi "isited Central America and the Cari))ean. 6eme9. $e9ico imported . Bast year. D0H0 $81A N“Chinese 6resident $a*es :rid e0:uildin ?rip to $e9ico”. MMthe" have another economic all"2 and that economic ally is a s perpo#er.'' said S.he pro-lem is that the United States is not ma!ing an attractive eno gh co nteroffer2 he said: MM&e sed to -e . ''in $e9ico the oal is to et to the head of the line in ener y reform. Ferchen wrote. they are also ettin concerned a)out an o"erreliance on commodities and a)out the hea"y toll . 6eda 'ieto's "isit to China in April to ship 4>. si ned an a reement durin $r. $att Ferchen. Be9isP 4resident Ii 7inpin of China arrived in 5exico City on ?uesday for a three-da" visit intended to smooth over relations that ha"e lon )een pric*ly. $r. he met with -> Cari))ean leaders and promised . Still. not supplyin China )ut competin with it to e9port manufactured oods li*e electronics and clothin to the Gnited States.ai#an MMthe" co ld get goodies too2MM (e"in 6.H> million to )uild a children's hospital in ?rinidad.>>> )arrels a day to Sinopec. accordin to $e9ico's $inistry of %conomy. the director of the China0Americas pro ram at the &nstitute of the . &n a sym)olic mo"e.he trip nderscores ChinaMs gro#ing ties in the hemisphere . is an effort to recast the relationship under two new leaders.4 )illion in loans for pro@ects in the re ion. new trade and finance from China. 6eda 'ieto said. MMChina #ants to remind the U%S% that / st as the U%S% has infl ence in regions close to China2 China too has rising infl ence in the Americas. met with -H re ional leaders in ?rinidad. ChinaMs rising infl ence in Latin America2 the United States has an opport nit" to improve relations #ith the region. e9perts said. perhaps in the automo)ile industry. Wi tra"eled to Costa +ica 00 which has no diplomatic ties with ?aiwan 00 and promised almost sent a clear message to other Central American co ntries that -" #ithdra#ing their recognition of . China could also send a stron messa e )y announcin in"estments in $e9ican manufacturin . ?he trip Americas in California. Bynne <al*er. &n ?rinidad and ?o)a o. $r. accordin to :loom)er 'ews. notin promises from China to start )y acceptin more teLuila and por* imports. ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes on the <e). Amon the loans was one for . ''At least ha"in the possi)ility of reater Chinese in"estment on the ta)le mi ht allow China and $e9ico to mo"e )eyond their up0till0 ChinaMs interest in nat ral reso rces leaves little do -t that it is loo!ing at f t re oil deals in 5exico .'' he said. Analysts will )e watchin the trip closely for si ns that 5exico and China are ta!ing steps to#ard changing their frost" relationship% $e9ico's o"ernment would li*e to narrow its lar e trade ap with China. ''<e a ree on the importance of )alancin our trade and in"estment ested that 6resident relationship.'' $r.HS )illion in oods from China and sent )ac* only . esda" covering energ"2 trade and ed cation.he t#o co ntries anno nced a series of agreements late . $e9ico 00 Batin America's second0lar est economy 00 has played a different role thou h. the Cari))ean's lar est ener y supplier. Wi's "isit came days after Cice 6resident 7oseph +. althou h it is unclear how far that openin will o. and $r.4>> million in loans to finish )uildin a hi hway. Mespite on the en"ironment Chinese0led rowth has e9acted. a scholar at the Carne ie0?sin hua Center for 8lo)al 6olicy in :ei@in . drawin a sharp contrast a)out what the two countries had to offer the area's tiny economies. .'' $r.S )illion in products. comin only two months after 6resident %nriLue 6eda 'ieto of $e9ico tra"eled to China. Latin American leaders have long complained that &ashington pa"s too little attention to the rest of the hemisphereMs concerns2 and China has -eg n to ta!e advantage of that perception% As Latin America and the Cari))ean -ecome less dependent on the United States. a state0owned company there. ports and tourist resorts. 8alla her. :iden 7r. (arla Ta)ludo"s*y contri)uted reportin from $e9ico City.H.'' $r.'' he wrote in an e0mail. 8alla her wrote. China has given -illions in loans and aid to Cari))ean nations to )uild stadiums.. wrote in an e0mail. $e9ico's state0owned oil monopoly. a professor at :oston Gni"ersity. he added. further securin his nation's foothold there. su Wi's itinerary may also )e intended as a messa e to the Gnited States. China has moved forcef ll" to sec re oil and other commodities in So th America over the past decade. $e9ico's Con ress is e9pected to )e in de)atin measures to open the country's closed oil industry to outside in"estment later in the year. :iden announced no new initiati"es. now Luite dysfunctional and competiti"e relationship.Lin! – 5exico U%S% engagement !e" to shift China from 5exico %lisa)eth 5al!in is a contri)utin writer for ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes )ased in $e9ico City. roads. thou h he spo*e a)out pro"idin help for clean ener y research and education and promised to dismantle remainin trade and in"estment )arriers. :efore arri"in in $e9ico.

the $e9ico &nstitute of the <oodrow <ilson Center (<ashin ton MC#.0$e9ico +elationship: ?owards a 'ew %raR. ?he conclusion speculates on whether the co ntries #ill move to#ards a more colla-orative or distant relationship. purposes.randt 1$ N7on :randt Mere* Fottle 'icole Adams 'a" Au@la Christina Minh (irsten (aufman Me"in (leinfield0Fayes <anlin +en Andrew ?uc* A$%+&CA' G'&C%+S&?E SCFJJB JF &'?%+'A?&J'AB S%+C&C%. Chinese %n a ement in Batin America and the Cari))ean: &mplications for GS Forei n 6olicy. Ar entina and Chile in di"ersifyin their economic relations simply are not "ia)le for $e9ico. A second section lays out the parameters of a new era in the )ilateral relationship.il and Cene.pdfP ..he 43C’s military interests in LAC are closely aligned #ith its commercial o-/ectives.american. >lo-ali+ation’s impact on the relationship is -est capt red in the rise of China and conse: ent displacement of 5exico in trade relations #ith the US.edu/assets/>.t that is no longer eno gh.il.a-le to dangle access to the -iggest econom" in the #orld2 . Mecem)er .0$e9ican Studies (San Mie o#.he inade: ate manner in #hich the two co ntries have responded up to now to these challen es is highlighted. payin particular attention to the challen es to )oth countries raised )y the processes of lo)ali.edu/sis/usfp/upload/Chinese0%n a ement0in0BAC0AG!GS0 Con ress0F&'AB. http://usme9. and the impact of 'AF?A in the two economies and societies.ation.>->.//--D4H. %l Cole io de la Frontera 'orte (?i@uana#.”H3 China’s four “strategic partners” in Batin America 0 Ar entina.ation and democrati.S. 5exico is a !e" partner for China in Latin America . <e trace the ori ins.he fail re of integration at a regional level is disc ssed . )ut we note that $e9ico1s lon )order with the GS means that the options open to :ra. <hile .?he G. :ra.HS China’s economic priorities are seen in its 0official s"stem of catalog ing states as cooperative2 friendlycooperati"e or strate ic partnersIwith the implication that this has for the allocation of economic resources. thus reducin the li*elihood of actions a ainst Chinese e9ports and in"estments.ed economy. outer space. $ares V 8usta"o Ce a CUno"as.uela O serve as important trading partners and commodit" s ppliers% China’s strategic post re in the &estern 'emisphere is consistent #ith its pu)lically stated national sec rit" priorities. . A third section discusses the essence of an" appropriate response to these challen es: economic integration.es a defensi"e Chinese military strate y. while simultaneously insistin the 6+C China’s ties #ith LAC reflect a gro#ing desire to protect economic and sec rit" interests. ?he paper hi hli hts Chinese concerns a)out international military competition in the areas of missile defense. :ilateral security ties )uild political oodwill with re ional players. the 'AF?A era since -==/.in the most recent period of GS0$e9ico relations. . focusin on stren thenin international military relations and counterin forei n interference in domestic affairs. the 43C is promoting does not see* confrontation or lo)al he emony.S. and the polar re ions. the Center for G. 5exico. .>-. Memocrati. http://www. thus helpin to set the conte9t for the in0depth discussions in su)seLuent chapters effecti"ely to today1s challen es. ?he 6+C1s .ation complicates policy responses )ut impro"es the li*elihood that policy will ha"e some consistency o"er time.'' Economic integration #ith 5exico !e" to chec! Chinese infl ence 5ares and Canovas 18 NMa"id +. and %l Cole io de $a9ico ($e9ico City#. A fourth section e"aluates the current relationship and offers su estions to impro"e the two countries1 a)ilities to respond &hether 5exico or the US li!e it or not2 the" are destined to #al! together if they want to )e successful in this lo)ali. cy)erspace.ucsd.pdfP ?his chapter )e ins )y )riefly characteri.>-> national defense white paper emphasi.

cooperation #hich reflects 0m t al tr st and -enefit21 not offensi"e measures that would directly threaten the Gnited States.H= <hile these interactions ha"e not resulted in round)rea*in )ilateral strate ic initiati"es. A num)er of hi h0le"el defense "isits ha"e occurred )etween China and Latin American nations.ilding meas res and pro"ide openin s for arms transactions.D>D . they serve as confidence .

:ut so far China has claimed the ti er's share of that e9pandin pie. comin @ust se"en wee*s )illion in . while )usinesses here sold )arely a ->th that sum in minerals and farm produce.Y China0$e9ico trade roc*eted from a)out .HS )illion worth of Chinese electronics. 8lo)al 6ost. when :ei@in si ned on to the <orld ?rade Jr ani. lo)alpost. $e9ican consumers o))led up .>>-. Li!e other Latin American co ntries2 5exico #ants more access to Chinese mar!ets for its man fact red goods% YChina has -ecome a so rce of economic gro#th and a factor of international sta-ilit"2O 6eda 'ieto said in a welcomin ceremony for Wi this afternoon.ation.H million )arrels of daily oil exports. most of which now oes to the GS refineries. to nearly . analysts say.com/dispatch/news/re ions/americas/me9ico/-4>D>//me9ica n0china0trade09i0latin0america0"isite-P after meeting #ith 6eda Nieto in China. Ii might -e loo!ing for more of 5exicoMs -.Lin! – 5exico A$( Competes #ith China 5exico loves China no# – goods mar!et Altha s 1A NMudley. toys and assorted ee aws last year. .4 Jn his "isit now. Y$e9ico wants to ti hten its relationship. http://www. tacos and teLuila to China. D/H/-4. <hat does Wi see in $e9icoR.D4 )illion last year.

and &ndia. M. and national security affairs.he middle class is gro#ing.>>4. --/4>/-. policy in the re ion. 5exico is )ecomin economicall" what it has always )een eo raphically: the cr cial lin! -et#een North and So th America% . :ra. ?he Gnited States and $e9ico: ?he 6ath Forward. surpassin e"en Batin American darlin :ra. office since ./--/4>//D/4>/the0 united0states0and0me9ico0the0path0forward/P . $anufacturin is mo"in )ac* to $e9ico from China.Lin! – 5exico ?$ LA 3egion 5exico is the !e" to Latin America 6arns#orth and &er+ 1$ N%ric Farnsworth is "ice president of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society.or /issues/security/news/. as well as on emer in democratic powers in ?ur*ey. headin their <ashin ton. Fis areas of e9pertise include the role of Asia in the Americas. $e9ico. trade.il. $ichael <er. G.americanpro ress.S.il.he co ntr" has solid standing% Economic gro#th is strong and pro/ections sho# contin ed expansion.he co ntr" has also -ecome a leading voice in glo-al trade2 as #ell as economic and environmental initiatives . .. where his wor* as a mem)er of the 'ational Security team focuses on the ne9us of climate chan e. ener y. and security. mi ration. .>-. http://www. is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American 6ro ress. with reater access to oods and ser"ices and the a)ility to purchase them.C.. #ith 5exico -ecoming a platform -oth for prod ction in North America and also in Latin America.

Fowe"er. and ponder what it means for the G.S. and rou hly H> percent of its imports are from the G. to $e9ico. Accordin to a 'omura %Luity +esearch report. Sounds familiarR ?he characteristics of many "i)rant emer in mar*ets such as China.S.S. approach )oth simultaneously. and ar uin that 5exico is fertile gro nd for more investment. ?his mi ht sound ne ati"e. :ra. $e9ico1s stoc* mar*et is currently in tal*s to inte rate their stoc* e9chan e with the $&BA roupIthe . )ecause our nei h)or to the south has Luietly positioned itself to )e the ne9t @ewel in the emer in mar*ets portfolio . the emphasis in tac*lin the immi ration Lua mire should )e trade and commerce.S.S. %n a ement. creatin a win0win situation. Fowe"er if the G. Currently. when a $e9ican economy is ro)ust and sta)leImore e9port possi)ilities for the G. $anufacturin costs in $e9ico are once a ain competiti"e compared to China. 'AF?A is already in place. ?en years a o.S. interaction. hi hli htin $e9ican companies that are in"estin locally and in the G. while $e9ico ets carte )lanche in its contradictory policy with their )order patrol methods towards Central American mi rants enterin throu h 8uatemala. )ut -oth parties (and Canada# can do more to cut red tape and streamline the mo"ement of trade and commerce. China1s la)or costs were four times cheaper than $e9ico. are currently doin )usiness in Batin America and Spain. -/. ?urn the ta)les a )it. such as :im)o and Ceme9. )ut when you are world1s super power.siness activit"% $oreo"er. in order to mo"e forward. it is imperati"e that 6resident J)ama tac*les this issue steadfastly and in the most )i0partisan manner possi)le.S.t is in the U%S%’s interests to have 5exico thin! north#ard first2 and then the other regions second2 . &n essence.S.in .//-4. And accordin to ?he Financial ?imes.diplomaticourier. and the e9chan e of ideas should )e the picture we want to paint.he U%S% m st act soon -efore it arrives at the part" too late.” A stron American economy is e9tremely fa"ora)le for $e9ico..S. $e9ico sends almost 3> percent of its e9ports to the to in"estors1 ears: G. $e9ico happens to )e less de"eloped than Ar entina. <hen comparin $e9ico on a 8M6 per capita )asis. &ndonesia.S. is )ecause of one desire: opportunity. Accordin to 'elson :alido. and :ra. &mmi rationIalthou h (:ra. finance.S.t the opposite is developing% esta)lished stoc* e9chan es )etween Colom)ia. $e9icans will no lon er desire to come to the G. trade. . ?his is unfortunate. and China# are no lon er the fla"or of the month2 $e9ico is now ta*in o"er that distinction. $e9ico now has a comparati"e ad"anta e )ecause its pro9imity to the G. $e9ico1s economy is hi hly interconnected with the G. Buc*ily. <ith the world )ecomin more flat. weathered the worst of the economic downturn.S. an emphasis on exports has re-emerged . (a <all Street 7ournal su)sidiary# recently pu)lished a )ullish article on $e9ico with the followin headline: “$e9ico: &n"estor1s 'ew China”.S. ?he %conomist pu)lished an opinion piece titled “?he 8lo)al $e9ican: $e9ico is open for )usiness”. in such dro"es. not all is fair in lo"e and war. )eefin up security. Fortifyin )orders. creatin walls that di"ide the two countries that mimic uncomforta)le parallels )etween &srael and 6alestine should not )e the main focus. and commerce will dictate the terms )etween the nei h)orin countries. &t has a youn and rowin population.S. Bess need for $e9icans to lea"e their homeland and loo* for @o)s in the G. especially in the manufacturin sector. 5exico is entering a perfect demographic storm. Currently. Shippin car o across the 6acific can )e more e9pensi"e and arduous. this already occurrin : “$e9ico1s economy has. will suffer due to set)ac*s of @ust ettin oods to cross the )order. and "ice "ersa. the e9chan e of commerce )etween $e9ico and the G. :+&C countries the dr g trade #ill no longer anchor the relationship -et#een the U%S% and 5exicoW instead.il. $ar*et <atch &n matters of forei n policy. economy performin at a snail0li*e pace. <hy o %ast when we can "enture SouthR Jr perhaps. for the most part. $e9ico is no lon er only loo*in north for economic ad"ancement. http://www.S. undou)tedly the elephant in the room must )e addressed promptly. ?rue.2 more in"estment from the G. as many of their multinational companies.il. 6resident of the :order ?rade Alliance.S. &f $e9ico de"elops a lastin ro)ust economy. economics. +ussia. immi ration and the topic is polari. ?he reason $e9icans cross the )order ille ally into the G.com/news/re ions/latin0america/-44-P 5exico is an aftertho ghtIour attention and reso rces are diverted to the 5iddle East or to grand strategies )ased on Qpi"otin 1 our eopolitical and economical capacity towards Asia. are occurrin ri ht 5exico in the next decade #ill s rpass . . G. and Chile. <e should not foster the ar ument that an open )order policy and a lo)al )usiness paradi m will compromise American @o)s and )ite into our distincti"e American competiti"eness. and &ndia. )ut the )ul* of the e9portin narrati"e re"ol"es aro nd Asia. administration continues to close the )orders. economy.ra+il in -eing Latin America’s largest econom"% ne9t door. )ut in actuality it should )e music more catching p for 5exico2 meaning more investment and . meanin that more youn $e9icans can reasona)ly see* and find wor* in their patria rather than headin north. For e9ample. &t can )e seen as one0sided that the onus is on the G. <ith the G. &ndia.Lin! – 5exico – EE !$ >ain 6oothold Economic engagement is critical to ens re the U%S% controls 5exico 5ontealegre 1A NJscar. "ersus truc*in car o from northern $e9ico and deli"erin to <isconsin in a matter of days. Miplomatic Courier.0$e9ico +elations: Bo"e ?hy 'ei h)or. 6eru. which is e9pected to last for se"eral decades. )ut with la)or wa es in China inflatin .il. Chile..

Eet #hile Americans have -een loo!ing else#here2 significant change has come to C -a. Soon we will witness the newly constructed )lue0water na"y of China cruisin Cu)a's coast in protection of their trade routes and supply of natural resources.he comm nist government of the rulin Castro )rothers. none other than China's 6resident himself. rants and trade deals.-. D/. “China's $o"es on Cu)a 'eed to :e Stopped”. &n . Supportin family. -ilateral trade increased from .Lin! – C -a C -a engagement reverses Chinese dominance L !o 11 (7ames O Ser"ed in <ashin ton MC with the 'ational Council For So"iet %ast %uropean +esearch.com/article3SS/0chinas0mo"es0on0cu)a0 need0to0)e0stopped.html# ?he +ed Mra on ta*es another wide step of not only fle9in its muscles in Asia. which has historically opposed any loosenin of GS policy. ?he Cu)an people wish to return to the American fold and re0esta)lish the traditional relationship with the Cu)an anchor in Florida0 namely the almost =>>. Allowin China to replace +ussia in Cu)a China is dangling financial assistance and investments in order to esta-lish a -eachhead close to the shores of America% ?his is a counter0 would )e a strate ic disaster. C -a instit ted reforms to its immi ration policies that allo# C -ans to travel a-road freel" and allow those who ha"e emi rated or fled to return home. ?he Cu)an0American population.P ?his month. . .>>D China GSS+s# forward )ase presence => miles from the Gnited States0 CG:A. . interest0free.'??W8s9dBe@>miFwF$/story.he Chinese threat in C -a sho ld )e the catalyst for the GS to esta)lish open and normali+ed relations.>-4.html# 3elations -et#een the United States and C -a have -een st c! since the United States imposed a f ll economic em-argo in -=D.uela. Ni)idP &n .>-4/>. the <-ama administration has a chance to drag US polic" into the $1st cent r". return of American in"estments and security a reements. while China is Cu)a's second0lar est trade partner after Cene.)oston lo)e. http://www. create an n s al opport nit" to ac!no#ledge C -a’s gest res and respond in a s -stantive #a"% +ather than simply e9tend policies that.eca se of this trend2 <-ama I who performed nearly as well with Cu)an0American "oters as +omney I has more reater contact with friends. ha"e failed to dislod e the Castros. continued support of ?aiwan and recent increased American aid to the 6hilippines in its spat with China o"er so"erei nty of the Spratly &slands.# intelli ence si nal sations in Cu)a since at least -=== f N. the Smithsonian &nstitute and two years as an analyst with the Canadian Mepartment of 'ational Mefence. response to Americas continued military presence in Asia. &f Cu)a )ecomes a 'client' state of China . http://www. Fidel and +aul.//> million in .hese changes2 and the -eginning of <-ama’s second term.>>> Cu)ans li"in in Florida alonef N/P China is shoring p infl ence in C -a no# – trade solves relations .he -est #a" to co nter the Chinese in C -a is to reverse Americas H> year old. 6ressures China on ?i)et and ?aiwan. and Cu)a discussed offshore oil deals and now China's 'ational 6etroleum Corporation is a ma@or player in Cu)an infrastructure impro"ements.>>. ' Jin.>->.nolanchart. Bate last year. 7une . and the Cu)an economy now animates a youn er eneration of Florida "oters. too”. e9tendin more financial . with aid.to . as well as related health pro@ects to )e paid for )y China. is no lon er monolithic.34 )illion in . N-P &n .com/opinion/editorials/.S. it #ill -e a so rce of leverage against America whene"er the G.ao visited C -a with a sweet pac*a e of loans. J"er the past decade. the Cice 6resident of China made an important "isit. Chec*in the Chinese mo"e in Cu)a early on is "ital to pre"entin a strate ic Chinese foothold => miles from Florida.oston >lo-e $DH (“Cu)a1s reforms pa"e way for new GS policy.=. .>--. and durin the election season neither 6resident J)ama nor $itt +omney si naled much desire to chan e the status Luo.>>4 it was reported that Chinese personnel were operatin at least ?<J (. .>>3.. . in fi"e decades. )ut now wishes to supplant +ussias and (former C -a is ChinaMs -iggest trade partner in the Cari--ean region./>=/cu)a0reform0create0 opportunity0dra 0policy0into0century/9%+. is in the midst of a slo# experiment to promote economic entreprene rship. ineffective and o-solete polic" of isolationism and )oycott of Cu)a.e Cu)a. A client state in the ma*in f N4P economic incenti"es to re0Americani.

his successor as chairman of the Senate Forei n +elations Committee is +o)ert $enende. )ut the FA+C and Colom)ia are now in ne otiations2 those peace tal*s are supported )y the J)ama <hite Fouse in order to end a )loody ci"il war. of 'ew 7ersey. e"en thou h the Gnited States and Cu)a are separated )y a narrow channel.ens is similarly momentous I and signals that the timing is ripe for a ne# diplomatic agenda #ith C -a% . a son of Cu)an immi rants who has opposed the administration1s efforts to ease relations. A)sent military inter"ention. reinstated )y the J)ama administration last summer. ?his would include )oosts to GS farm companies while helpin Cu)ans. startin with promotin cultural e9chan es2 endin the tra"el )an2 and e"entually allo#in for trade in oil2 gas2 and other commodities. will need to )e con"inced that he can help Cu)ans more )y resettin American policy. Currently. there are ver" fe# opport nities for a president to dramaticall" alter relations with a historic foe2 J)ama has ta*en such ad"anta e of a disorientin ly rapid li)erali. other co ntries will sweep in to see* influence. the United States co ld then )e in to lessen trade restrictions. Especiall" as C -a increasingl" promotes offshore drilling and other maritime e9ploration. as China has already done . J"er time.” ?he administration ar ued that Cu)a har)ored mem)ers of the +e"olutionary Armed Forces of Colom)ia. Direct relations #o ld also f rther US national sec rit" and environmental interestsW as C -a opens p. $enende. :y depolitici.ation )y :urma1s military rulers. the t#o co ntries have no -ilateral comm nications to ens re safet" standards for their m t al protection from oil spills . Secretary of State 7ohn (erry should ma*e Cu)a a focus of his first months in office. that Cu)a remains a “state sponsor of terrorism. the United States m st improve comm nication with Fa"ana. Gnfortunately. )illions of dollars in new trade )etween the two nations will )enefit )oth.in the Cu)a portfolio. 3a l Castro’s recent decision to lift tra"el restrictions on Cu)an citi. or FA+C. ?he first step would )e to end the silly claim. &t has.mane vering room politicall".

Additionally. $yers Jaffe and Soligo have addressed this possi)ility -" loo!ing at the potential to increase diversification and dispersion of energ" reso rces% ?his is an important consideration when one ta*es into consideration that well o"er one0third of all oil refinin capacity resides on or near the Fouston shippin channel. ?reasurer of the American 6olitical Science Association. +ecently.45 ?he primary consideration is to determine the present state of Cu)an ener y and what possi)ilities e9ist that would )e a"aila)le to American forei n policy decision ma*ers and )usiness interests as the relations with Cu)a e"ol"e o"er the comin years.ffer against U%S% opposition as it solidifies it economic and diplomatic role in the re ion.ra+il and mem)ers of the %uropean Gnion it ma" prove to provide C -a for a s fficient .>>D G. 6hM. ?he also )ecomes more attracti"e )ecause of the rowin climatic concerns o"er the uncertain security of oil resources in the 8ulf re ion as clearly demonstrated )y Furricanes (atrina and +ita in . the e"olution of the :oli"arian re"olution under Cha"e.edu/research/commissioned0reports/oil0cu)a0al"arado.en/amin-Alvadaro 8E (7onathan. ?his is important inasmuch as there is a de facto trend in the Americas that clearly disa"ows and attempts to minimi+e the infl ence of the United States in the region. Mirector of the &ntelli ence Community Centers of Academic %9cellence 6ro ram at G'J. Specifically.)illion dollars to )rin the there are still man" other possi-ilities open and availa-le to American companies2 as #ell as a gro#ing n m-er of foreign firms .S.D Additionally. it stands to reason that C -a ma" ass me an increasing stat re that almost potentiall" lessens the presence of American infl ence in C -an and hence regional affairs% Finally. ?he potential ne ati"e impact on America1s refinin capacity followin Furricane +itaH made a si nificant impression on oil industry analysts for the necessity of di"ersifyin the location of these "ital national resources. there ma" -e interest in cooperating in /oint vent re pro/ects2 and )y e9tension assisting in the long-term development in C -a’s oil ind str"% ) ?o accomplish this tas* the report see*s to lay out some national security policy considerations applyin strate ic thou ht to what & will term “6ost0Jil” Cu)a O a Cu)a that has a small )ut "i)rant and rowin oil and as production capacity with e9tensi"e relations with a num)er of partners. and with the rowin demands on the world economy )y China.uela remains the fourth lar est importer of oil to the Gnited States and one can surmise that the e9istin trade arran ements )etween the G. and as a res lt of the oil discover" and C -a’s energ" arrangement #ith the o"ernment of Fu o Chave+ in Cene. the ener y security interests in the potential of Cu)an oil O althou h it really would not minimi. Cienfue os refinery online.his is important -eca se an" realistic appraisal of ho# C -a is to ta!e advantage of its oil -onan+a involves the United States% 6re"ious research in this area has clearly laid out the scope and o)@ecti"es of Cu)an ener y de"elopment schemes in the period since the demise of Cu)a1s fa"ora)le trade arran ements with the former So"iet Gnion. and as demonstrated )y the presence of American oil interests in the Fe)ruary .e the immediacy of an American ener y crisis O is seen as possi)le if only partial remedy to ener y supply concerns.” http://cri.S.. and Cene. possesses a lar ely untapped technical capacity owin to ad"anced trainin and education in the core mathematic and scientific areas. the foundation of Cu)a1s "aunted pu)lic education system remains . “?he Current Status and Future 6rospects for Jil %9ploration in Cu)a: A Special.uela there is rene#ed interest in 'avana’s energ" policies% $ost of that analysis has )een focused on concrete possi)ilities where there can )e cooperation in the ener y field )etween these two nei h)ors.pdf# >iven that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations -et#een the governments of the United States and C -a./ . )y any measure. the le"el of interest has gro#n significantl" in the 4 years due primarily to three reasons in the followin interest areas: ener y security interests2 )roader re ional strate ic2 and purely economic interests. $oreo"er.uela has initiated an in"estment of . Cene.fiu. Second.>>H. 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at Gni"ersity of 'e)ras*a at Jmaha. Florida &nternational Gni"ersity. and a rowin Chinese presence in the re ion notwithstandin .0 Cu)an %ner y Summit in $e9ico City. as C -a2 in part -eca se of the increasing n m-er of oil partnerships f rthers its diplomatic and economic ties to #ith co ntries li!e *ene+ ela2 China2 . ?his was clearly demonstrated )y its attempt to de"elop a nuclear ener y capa)ility in the -=3>s and -==>s where)y thousands of Cu)ans pursued hi hly technical career paths lea"in Cu)a with amon the hi hest ratios of scientists and en ineers to the eneral population in all of the Americas. First.Lin! – C -a <il 4lan shores p US-C -an relations7stops Chinese engagement . ?he potential of "iewin Cu)a as a “sta in area” for American oil stora e and refinin is plausi)le )ecause of the pro9imity of the island. the #or! has loo!ed at areas for the convergence of energ" interests as they apply to the near0 and lon 0term ener y de"elopment scenarios facin )oth countries. and an increasin ly positi"e outloo* toward addressin ener y and economic de"elopment Luestions that ha"e pla ued the Castro re ime since the Cu)an +e"olution. +eport for the Cu)an +esearch &nstitute. <hile it is true that Cene.uela will remain intact. p rs ing s ch a path #o ld allo# United States polic"ma!ers to ta!e advantage of #hat C -a has to offer in the followin areas: domestic technical capa-ilities2 continuin human capital de"elopment2 strategic positioning in the Cari--ean2 and an improved diplomatic stat re% Cu)a.

intact and increased in"estment under "arious scenarios su ests that Cu)a will continue to produce a welleducated wor*force that will )e critical to its future economic "itality. ?his raises an important consideration that )ein the role that Cu)a will play in the re ion in the .-st century. &t suffices to say that )y "irtue of its eo raphical location alone, in efforts a ainst dru and human traffic*in and related national and re ional security matters. ?he e9tent to which a sta)le Cu)an o"ernment has cooperated with the G.S. in dru interdiction efforts in the past su ests that the results from

C -a remains the strategicall" important state

improved diplomatic

relations )etween nei

h)ors would ha"e the effect of impro"in national security concerns related to terrorist acti"ity, illicit weapons transfers

ma" #ell enhance and sta-ili+e regional relations that co ld possi-l" lessen (or at a minimum, )alancin # fears of a Chinese inc rsion in hemispheric affairs % ?o lessen those fears it may )e useful to re"iew the present
and the li*e. Gltimately, a successful normali;ation of relations )etween the G.S. and Cu)a in these areas structure of @oint0"enture pro@ects in the ener y sector in Cu)a to ascertain the feasi)ility and possi)le success of such an underta*in )ecome a"aila)le to American firms. $oreo"er, it is interestin to note that G.S. firms in the a riculture sector ha"e successfully ne otiated and consummated sales to Cu)a totalin more than ,- )illion dollars o"er the past four years under conditions that are less than optimal circumstances )ut ha"e well0ser"ed the commercial interests of all parties in"ol"ed.

Lin! – A$( C -a Doesn’t Spillover
Spills over thro gho t the region ,isdall A-F – Simon ?isdall, writer for the 8uardian, $arch Hth, .>-4, YMeath of
Fu o ChU"e; )rin s chance of fresh start for GS and Batin AmericaY www. uardian.co.u*/world/.>-4/mar/>H/hu o0cha"e;0dead0us0latin0america/print Fu o ChXve+Ms depart re f rnishes .arac! <-ama #ith an opport nit" to repair US ties #ith *ene+ ela2 - t also #ith other Latin American states #hose relations #ith &ashington #ere adversel" affected -" ChXve+Ms politics of polarisation and the . sh administrationMs viscerall" nintelligent reaction.5 &n particular, the change of leadership in Caracas co ld nloc! the deadloc! over C -a, if the <hite Fouse can summon the reLuisite political will.5 6ossi)ly anticipatin a transition, <ashin ton

Luietly en ineered a diplomatic openin with Caracas last 'o"em)er after a len thy standoff durin which am)assadors were withdrawn. 5 +o)erta 7aco)son, assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs, telephoned 'icolUs $aduro, Cene;uela's "ice0president and ChU"e;'s preferred successor, and discussed, amon other thin s, the restoration of full diplomatic relations.5 YAccordin to GS officials, the Cene;uelan "ice0president offered to e9chan e am)assadors on the occasion of the )e innin of 6resident :arac* J)ama's second term. 7aco)son, in turn, is said to ha"e proposed a step0)y0step approach to impro"e )ilateral relations, startin with reater co0operation in counter0narcotics, counter0terrorism and ener y issues,Y Andres Jppenheimer reported in the $iami Ferald. 5 ?here is much round to ma*e up. Y+elations )etween the Gnited States and Cene;uela ha"e ran ed from difficult to hostile since ChU"e; too* office in -=== and )e an to implement what he calls .-st0century socialism,Y wrote a former GS am)assador to Caracas, Charles Shapiro. 5 YChU"e; )lamed a failed .>>. coup a ainst him on the Gnited States (not true#, nationalised GS companies, insulted the president of the Gnited States and )lamed 'the empire' O his term for the Gnited States O for e"ery ill K &n forei n affairs, the o"ernment acti"ely supports the Assad re ime in Syria, re@ects sanctions on &ran and enerally opposes the GS at e"ery turn.Y 5 Mespite such strains, economic self0interest always pre"ented a complete rupture. ?he GS remained Cene;uela's most important tradin partner throu hout ChU"e;'s presidency, )uyin nearly half its oil e9ports. Caracas is the fourth lar est supplier of oil to the GS. 5 &n fact, the GS imports more crude oil annually from $e9ico and Cene;uela than from the entire 6ersian 8ulf. ?his shared commerce now pro"ides a formida)le incenti"e and a launch platform for a fresh start. 5 <hether the opportunity is rasped depends partly on $aduro, a ChU"e; loyalist )ut

it depends even more on <-ama2 #hose first term2 after a promising start2 ended p perpet ating &ashingtonMs historical neglect of Latin America. 'e no# has a chance to do -etter.5 ?he political climate seems propitious. %conomic and cultural ties are also stren thenin dramatically. ?rade )etween the GS and Batin America rew )y 3.[ )etween -==3 and .>>=. &n .>-- alone, e9ports and imports rose )y a massi"e .>[ in )oth directions.5 Y<e do three times more )usiness with Batin America than with China and twice as
a reputed pra matist with close ties to +acl Castro in Cu)a. 5 Eet much )usiness with Colom)ia NasP with +ussia,Y an J)ama official told 7ulia Swei of the GS Council on Forei n +elations. Batinos now comprise -H[ of the GS population2 the GS is the world's second lar est Spanish0spea*in country (after $e9ico#. 5 Mespite this con"er ence, hi h0le"el GS strate ic thin*in a)out the re ion has continued to la , Swei ar ued. 5 YFor the last two decades, GS domestic politics ha"e too often dri"en <ashin ton's Batin America a enda O whether on issues of trade, immi ration, dru s, uns or that perennial political al)atross, Cu)a, lon dri"en )y the supposedly crucial 'Cu)an "ote' in Florida,Y she said. 5

J)ama could chan e this dynamic if he tried and one #a" to do it #o ld -e to npic! the C -an pro-lem2 #hich contin es to colo r the #a" Latin Americans vie# &ashington.5 YFa"in won nearly half of the Cu)an American "ote in Florida in .>-., a ain of -H percenta e points o"er .>>3, J)ama can mo"e Luic*ly on Cu)a. &f he were to do so, he would find a cautious )ut willin partner in +acl Castro2 #ho needs rapprochement #ith &ashington to advance his o#n reform agenda,Y Swei said.

Cari--ean nations are !e" – China is shifting its foc s there Sanche+ and , 1$ (Ale9 O +esearch Fellow at Council on Femispheric Affairs,
and Bynn O +esearch Associate at Council on Femispheric Affairs, “China "s. ?aiwan: :attle for &nfluence in the Cari))ean”, 4/-4, http://www.coha.or /china0"s0taiwan0 )attle0for0influence0in0the0cari))ean/ :ei@in "s. ?aipei Certainl" a critical aspect regarding the extent of Chinese interests in the Cari--ean, as pre"iously has )een reflected upon, is .ei/ing’s interest for Cari--ean islands to adopt mainland China’s negative stance on ,ai#an. &n the past few years, China has ta!en an aggressive approach in attempting to diss ade ,aipei’s a-ilit" to invest in this region. Since eleven out of twenty0three of ,ai#an’s s rviving diplomatic relationships can -e fo nd #ithin the 8reater Cari--ean2N.>P it is of distinct importance for China to ens re that it maintains ro- st ties #ith Latin American and Cari--ean co ntries for political reasons, while also managing to limit ,aipei’s involvement in the re ion. <ithout includin the
Central American states, the Cari))ean nations that currently reco ni;e ?aiwan are the Mominican +epu)lic, Faiti, Saint (itts and 'e"is, Saint Bucia, as well as Saint Cincent and the 8renadines. Currently, the lon standin

diplomatic competition )etween the two Chinas seems to )e coolin down, due to incum)ent ?aiwanese president $a Ein 0@eou )ein re0elected.N.-P &t seems clear that 6resident $a wants to promote a peaceful path towards cross0strait relations de"elopment, and hence the su)tle tu 0of0war o"er diplomatic reco nition seems, at least for the time )ein , to )e comin to an end.

Furthermore. with $edicare on the ta)le.S. Sanche+ has his e"es on the pri+e. a consultin firm. So2 #here does &ashington go from hereY .uela had . Al"aro +ui. %ner y Administration. those with a sense of history mi ht note that the year Cha"e. A @oint Cu)an0Cene./ )illion dollars in de"elopment pro@ects.-3)n in $811.S. “:arrio Adentro.eera. . ener y and industrial rowth. e9ceedin Saudi Ara)ia with .” has made health care free and accessi)le to all Cene.hese ignored developments ma" #ell soon refoc s &ashington’s attention on the So thern 'emisphere. to include housin . has implemented to )enefit his people. Al@a.uela now estimated to ha"e the lar est con"entional oil reser"es and the second0lar est natural as reser"es in the <estern Femisphere.” Sanche.>-44-.eera.” .uela in fourth place at =4> thousand )arrels per day. Somethin that Americans mi ht consider as the presidential race heats up.DDD m)pd#. announced that China Me"elopment :an* will )an*roll ../0fold . manufactured oods from China are comin into Batin America and raw materials are oin out. :arrio Adentro e9panded Cene. Accordin to +amire./-4..H million )pd.he -iggest geostrategic change of the past decade overloo!ed -" &ashington policy won*s in their fi9ation on their self0proclaimed “war on terror” is that Batin America has )een throwin off the shac*les of the $onroe Moctrine % . in <ashin ton1s )ad )oo*sR <ell. why is Cha"e.. up from />>. Saudi Ara)ia (-. Cene. 0 sportin thic* cufflin*s with the red Chinese fla and a dar* )la./4 of Cene.htmlP .>>> )arrels per day in Fe)ruary.com/indepth/features/. Cene.S. the rise in e9ports will come from increased production in the natural resource0rich Jrinoco Jil :elt in the east of the country.3 percent. “Gsually.->S m)pd#.>-4/>4/. said. as the +ussian Federation. too* office. has stated that )y . Founded in . too* office in -===. So. http://oilprice. worryin some and enrichin others. the Gnited States total crude oil imports now a"era e =.4-= m)pd#. mar*et -. a .uela1s 6resident Fu o Chave+ reorients his co ntr"1s to China.>>> Cu)an medical professionals as the o"ernment eLuipped clinics and hospitals with ad"anced hi h technolo y dia nostic and sur ical eLuipment. Case in point 0 Cene.ation1s 3-.uelan oil e9ports to China to one million )arrels of crude per day. last wee* 6resident Cha"e. it might -egin -" engaging in some honest diplomac"% China fills in a-sent U%S% engagement in *ene+ ela Arsena lt 1A NChris. :ut.eera. “<e are sellin D/>.uela1s national health care system )y employin more than 4>. Y &e are selling oil to China at a -etter price than #hat is sold in the U%S% mar!et%M ' And. Jilprice. +amire.uela e9ported to the G. <orse howe"er are the social pro rams that Cha"e.S. with oil sales sur in D> percent in .uela1s reser"es accordin to J6%C now top those of Saudi Ara)ia.. 6resident of JrJctradin .uela1s health care system. Murin a recent inter"iew Jil $inister +afael +amire.er 0 has )een teachin *ene+ elan companies a)out doing .uela1s oil e9ports to the G. A ain. as Cene. )ut Cha"e.uela0+amps0up0China0Jil0 %9ports0Gnsettlin 0<ashin ton.com/%ner y/Crude0Jil/Cene..S->H443=4H-. Accordin to the G.Lin! – *ene+ ela Engagement !e" to chec! Chinese infl ence Dal" 1$ N7ohn. 3/. Caracas is shiftin ears./. )efore 6resident Cha"e. $e9ico (-. with the top fi"e e9portin countries )ein Canada (. Sanche.uela did not ship oil to China.f it #ants to preserve its increasingl" ten o s foothold in a nation with the #orld’s largest oil reserves. http://www.rade -et#een *ene+ ela2 holder of the world1s lar est oil reser"es. “*ene+ ela has posted a positive trade -alance #ith China2 -eca se of oil exports .Cene. Such alternatives hardly please the powers that )e in <ashin ton. 4/-. ?wo years a o J6%C reported that of the or ani. said simply.uela loo*s to China for economic )oost .uela +amps up China Jil %9ports Gnsettlin <ashin ton. told Al 7a.>>4. and China #ill soon to -ecome *ene+ ela’s main trade partner.. 'ote that two of America1s top four ener y importers are south of the +io 8rande. )ac* to ener y. and China gre# to .-/-.>-. Mespite the primacy of Cene. Cene.uelan medical pro ram..uelans. Cene.t is hard to see this emphasis shift as an"thing .siness #ith the #orld’s secondlargest econom".>-H he intends to ramp up Cene. with Cene. for the company he *eeps. )ut without those we would ha"e a ma@or deficit. which not only smac* of socialism )ut offer an alternati"e to <ashin ton1s proscriptions. &t is not an inconsidera)le element of concern for the J)ama administration. )ut are increasingl" considered in Latin America.al@a.44 percent of the lo)e1s *nown oil reser"es Cene.uelan oil sales to the G. &ran and Cu)a are all allies.com..>44 million )arrels per day.>>> )arrels of petrol per day to China. amon other reasons. 'ote that the first two are also ma@or oil e9porters. i"en <ashin ton1s forei n aid stin iness.htmlP As China’s economic and political footprint gro#s across Latin America and Africa. For those with a sense of history. which insists that China in Africa in particular e9ploits poor nations )y )uyin resources at roc* )ottom prices.” ?his is now eLui"alent to . with Cene.t a short-sighted diplomatic disaster for the U%S% Compoundin the de radation of <ashin ton.

held tal*s with Chinese officials o"er the wee*end.>>4.uelan relations under the ChU"e.uela's interim 6resident 'icolas $aduro. %conomically.uela1s lon oil0 producin history as “->> years of domination )y the Gnited States. &n a tele"ised meetin with $aduro. and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. chairman of China1s 'ational Me"elopment and +eform Commission. s)ha P ?o date.uela1s forei n minister.>->. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e. ?he Fistorian.. Cene. As relations -et#een *ene+ ela and the US so red in recent "ears2 *ene+ ela loo!ed a#a" from its traditional trading partner to#ards the east% China co ld soon s rpass the US as *ene+ ela’s largest trading partner.ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies. American o)ser"ers worry that *ene+ elan energ" agreements #ith China ltimatel" ma" serve to divert oil from the United States% D/ <hile Cene. American 7ournal of Chinese Studies. Bi has pu)lished do. -> &ssue . who once ser"ed as Cene. the Chinese challen es are mainly from the economic arena. Asian 6erspecti"e. ->0-0$88F N“+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America”.com/content/pdf/->.>>/.pdf. 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism.3SS>. 6resident ChXve+ was reported to ha"e referred to Cene. who too* the @o) followin the death of 6resident Fu o Cha"e. on $arch H. Than 6in .>>H. pSS. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep. 6olicy Studies 7ournal. accordin to a Gni"ersity of $iami study in .he t#o co ntries had signed A88 -ilateral agreements2 incl ding P8 ma/or pro/ects.->>S/:F>. the Chinese are competing #ith the U%S% for *ene+ ela’s oil exports and mar!et for man fact red prod cts% 8i"en the current poor state of G. http://lin*.Y said $aduro.increase from . China and the US are competing for *ene+ elan mar!ets – one’s gain is the other’s lost Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er.uelan ener y officials ha"e denied this. in Mecem)er . reported China Maily.” Fe asserted that 0No# #e are free2 and place this oil at the disposal of the great Chinese fatherland%1 D .he -est tri.=. Asian Affairs. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science. Col. a o"ernment0)ac*ed newspaper % *ene+ ela exports more than F882888 -arrels of oil to the Asian giant dail"2 according to government fig res2 and plans to increase that to one million -" $81F% . o"ernment.0 Cene.S.te that #e co ld give to o r comandante Chave+ is to deepen o r strategic relationship #ith o r -eloved China. said “deepening relations -et#een China and *ene+ ela1 are 0the onl" #a" to comfort the so l of 4resident ' go Chave+”. $assachusetts.sprin er. Y.

.mpact – Econom" .

-st Luarter . higher val e added prod cts in sectors seen as strate ic.>>/ and its acceptance into the &AM: in . to resolve s ch pro-lems #hen the" occ r. 6eru.eca se of this. protests. o"ernment a reed. the hopes of access to Chinese mar*ets and in"estments amon *ey roups of . such as Access to Batin American $ar*ets. the %cuadorian o"ernment pu)licly and )itterly )ro*e off ne otiations with the Chinese. &n another deal. the 43C has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese mar!ets )y Chile. )ut as part of the deal.pdfP Latin American mar!ets are )ecomin increasin ly val a-le for Chinese companies )ecause the" allo# the 43C to e9pand and diversif" its export -ase at a time #hen economic gro#th is slo#ing in traditional mar!ets such as the Gnited States and %urope. &n e9pandin access for its products throu h free trade accords with countries such as Chile. such as *idnappin . ethnic Chinese shop*eepers in Calencia and $aracay. &n doin so. and protests in Jrellana related to a la)or dispute with the Chinese company 6etroriental in .Chinese Econom" – 1NC Chinese infl ence in the region !e" to the glo-al econom" and regime sta-ilit" – preventing US infl ence !e" Ellis 11 N+. As such incidents increase 2 the 43C #ill need to rel" increasingl" on a com)ination of good#ill and fear to deter action a ainst its personnel. has )een associated with a series of pro)lems.uela. Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity. on the telephone and et an instant response if an issue China has applied more e9plicit press res to ind ce Latin America to !eep its mar!ets open to Chinese oods.sinesspeople and government officials in those nations have pla"ed a !e" role in the political #ill to overcome the resistance. and th s the sta-ilit" of the regime2 threatened if an actor s ch as the United States is a-le to limit that cooperation or -loc! glo-al instit tions from s pporting Chinese interests% .uela . some within the 43C leadership see the co ntr"’s s stained gro#th and development.he rise of China is intimately tied to the glo-al econom" thro gh trade2 financial2 and information flo#s2 each of #hich is highl" dependent on glo-al instit tions and cooperation. for e9ample. At times. China )e an enforcin a lon standin phytosanitary re ulation.>>/. as #ell as its infl ence #ith governments of the region. 6rotection of Chinese &n"estments in and ?rade Flows from the +e ion.il. and penetratin mar*ets in Batin American countries with e9istin manufacturin sectors such as $e9ico.uela. crime.>>> consumer appliances from the Chinese manufacturer Faier for resale to the Cene. as China )ecomes more in"ol"ed in )usiness and other operations in Batin America. Then ?uo. )illion in lost soy e9ports and other dama es for Ar entina. http://www. an increasin num)er of its nationals will )e "ulnera)le to ha.uela to purchase the planes from a Chinese company. reLuired Cene.ndu. :ra. . in the case of Ar entina. &n the course of ne otiatin a . 6eru.>--.Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America. to accept half of the .uelan people.S )illion loan deal for the Coco Coda Sinclair Fydroelectric plant in %cuador. the a)ility of the Chinese )idder SinoFidro to self0finance 3H percent of the pro@ects throu h Chinese )an*s helped it to wor* around the traditional %cuadorian reLuirement that the pro@ect ha"e a local partner. as informal retaliation. &t has specifically protested measures )y the Ar entine and $e9ican o"ernments that it has seen as arose re ardin a Chinese company. Cene. months later after failin to find satisfactory alternati"es... resistance -" or ani. for e9ample.uela. %"an.n Latin America2 China’s attainment of o-server stat s in the JAS in . and to !eep them from -eing sed 0against1 Chinese interests% &n addition.>>D.-. only to return to the )ar ainin ta)le . causin almost .ards common to the re ion.4>> million to start a re ional airline. and Costa +ica.edu/press/li)/ima es/@fL0 D>/7FAD>!3H0=-!%llis.=. computers and telecommunication eLuipment. and related pro)lems. ?he hei htened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern @un le re ion of %cuador.> )illion loaned to it )y the 6+C in Chinese currency. )ecame the focus of "iolent protests associated with the Cene. and Ar entina. it was said that the prior Chinese am)assador to Cene. As with the Gnited States and other <estern countries. the ChU"e. &n Cene.he region has also pro"en an effective mar!et for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated.uelan recall referendum.-/ China has also used its economic wei ht to help secure ma@or pro@ects on preferential terms. Bater.ed and often politically well0connected was one of the few people in the country who could call 6resident ChU"e. includin the ta*eo"er of an oilfield operated )y the Andes petroleum consortium in ?arapoa in 'o"em)er .. and Costa . the 6+C loaned Cene. automo)iles. &n .-H 6rotection of Chinese 'ationals. the 43C has often had to overcome esta-lished interests in those nations..>>= #ere efforts to o)tain a seat at the ta)le in *ey re ional institutions. &n Cene. and to use part of that currency to )uy . . appliances.>>S that resulted in the death of more than 4H police officers and forced the declaration of a national state of emer ency.uela. and aircraft. protectionist: and.

Mepartment of Mefense N7edediah +oyal. <an (-==D#. economic scholarship positi"ely correlates economic inte ration with an increase in the freLuency of economic crises.>>># theory of trade e9pectations su ests that 'future e9pectation of trade' is a si nificant "aria)le in understandin economic conditions and security )eha"iour of states. Mc+oucn (-==H#. Fess. e"en a relati"ely certain redistri)ution of power could lead to a permissi"e en"ironment for conflict as a risin power may see* to challen e a declinin power (<erner.>>3.. V <ee ra pan a. ?he lin*a e. First. if the e9pectations of future trade decline. 8oldsmith and :rauer. the li*elihood for conflict increases.' ?his implied rcccni . whereas political science scholarship lin*s economic decline with e9ternal conflict al systemic.>>. and :lom)cr . $iller (-===#. %conomic Si nalin and the 6ro)lem of %conomic Crises. As such.to sec re -ilateral free trade agreements.-HP Bess intuiti"e is how periods of economic decline may increase the li*elihood of e9ternal conflict. W=X %conomic decline has also )een lin*ed with an increase in the li*elihood of terrorism (:lom)cr . which in turn returns the fa"our. +esearch in this "ein has )een considered at systemic. #hose practical effect is to move Latin America a#a" from a U%S%-dominated trading -loc! (the Free ?rade Area of the Americas# in #hich the 43C #o ld have -een disadvantaged% +ica Econ decline ca ses #ar 3<=AL 18 Mirector of Cooperati"e ?hreat +eduction at the G. due to the fact that democratic leaders are enerally more suscepti)le to )ein remo"ed from office due to lac* of domestic support. . e9o enous shoc*s such as economic crises could usher in a redistri)ution of relati"e power (see also 8ilpin. p. crises enerally reduce the popularity of a sittin o"ernment . .>>/#. Furthermore. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the e9tent to which international and e9ternal conflicts self0reinforce each other (FlomhenR V Fess. Separately.ad"ances $odcls*i and ?hompson's (-==D# wor* on leadership cycle theory. on a dyadic le"el. Me+ouen (. rhythms in the lo)al economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre0eminent power and the often )loody transition from one pre0eminent leader to the ne9t . -=S7# that leads to uncertainty a)out power )alances . Copeland's (-==D. Se"eral nota)le contri)utions follow. Be al and 6olitical 6erspecti"es. &n summary. findin that economic decline and the security and defence )eha"iour of interdependent stales. are statistically lin*ed lo an increase in the use of force./ ?hird. $om )er and Fess (. Alternati"ely. and ?hac*er (. -===#. on the systemic le"el. and thus wea* 6residential popularity. )etween internal and e9ternal conflict and prosperity are stron and mutually reinforcin . althou h he su ests that the causes and connections )etween lo)al economic conditions and security conditions remain un*nown.S.>>=# su est that &he tendency towards di"ersionary tactics arc reater for democratic states than autocratic states. ?hey write. p. . medium and small powers. dyadic and national le"els. %conomic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict. when facin unpopularity arisin from economic decline. increasin the ris* of miscalculation (Fcaron. ed.>->. sittin o"ernments ha"e increased incenti"es to fa)ricate e9ternal military conflicts to create a 'rally around the fla ' effect.>>D# find supportin e"idence showin that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti# correlated. Crises could potentially )e the tri er for decreased trade e9pectations either on its own or )ecause it tri states. as states will )e inclined to use force to ain access to those resources . YMi"ersionary theoryY su ests that. $oreo"er. and (isan ani and 6ic*erin (. %conomic &nte ration.(->. Second.# find a stron correlation )etween internal conflict and e9ternal conflict . 6ollins (-==D# also shows that lo)al economic cycles com)ined with parallel leadership cycles impact the li*elihood of conflict amon ma@or. Fowe"er. ers protectionist mo"es )y interdependent others ha"e considered the lin* )etween economic decline and e9ternal armed conflict at a national le"el. Fe ar ues that interdependent states arc li*ely to ain pacific )enefits from trade so lon as they ha"e an optimistic "iew of future trade relations. -==H#. Fess. which has the capacity to spill across )orders and lead to e9ternal tensions . . 8elpi (-==S#. .>>># has pro"ided e"idence showin that periods of wea* economic performance in the Gnited States. in %conomics of <ar and 6eace: %conomic. particularly for difficult to replace items such as ener y resources. 6olitical science literature has contri)uted a moderate de ree of attention to the impact of 6ollins (.-40. particularly durin periods of economic downturn. dyadic and national le"els.

althou h the operation of political and economic institutions has seen some ma@or chan es. 6olish Auarterly of &nternational Affairs. 7apan. or they are too wea*. H3# As already ar ued. crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic0security de)ate and deser"es more attention. many e9perts fear special position the military occupies in the Chinese political system. and the e9istence of many potential "e9ed issues in %ast Asia (disputes o"er islands in the China Sea and the 6acific#. . 6rofessor O &nstitute of 6olitical Studies.connection )etween inte ration. ?he li*elihood of the lo)al escalation of the conflict is hi h. the rule of law.ation of internal policies could lead to a political. p. the crisis would ha"e serious lo)al repercussions. or e"en military crisis. A potential hot)ed of conflict is also ?aiwan's status. Australia and. clearly defined an economic crisis in China. the economic ad"ance of China has ta*en place with relati"ely few correspondin chan es in the political system. %conomic recession and the related desta)ili. tools are missin that would allow the esta)lishment of political and le al foundations for the modem economy. >oes glo-al ?amins!i @ (Antoni T. etc. &ts political ramifications could )e no less dramatic owin to the ownership ri hts. China. as the interests of +ussia. For these reasons. the GS clash in the re ion. Considerin the importance of the state for the de"elopment of the lo)al economy.. first and foremost. “<orld Jrder: ?he $echanics of ?hreats (Central %uropean 6erspecti"e#”. Still. -. efficient )an*in system. ?he tools are efficient pu)lic administration.

30H.epochtimes. ?hese speeches let the pu)lic see the CC6 for what it really is. And eLuipment. <ith e"il fillin its e"ery cell the CC6 intends to wa e a war a ainst human*ind in its desperate attempt to clin to life. latency. that they will die to ether the CC61s nature: ?hat of a monstrous murderer who has *illed 3> million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one -illion people hosta e and am)le with their li"es. humanity is still threatened )y <e may face e"en reater ris*s from emer in technolo ies. Althou h most pandemics Yfade outY )y reducin the density of suscepti)le populations. and n clear #eapons in its attempt to e9tend its life. (Anders. weapons. gir*o"ihIsenior research associate at the Astronomical J)ser"atory of :el rade. ?he CC6. with him. alon with se"en or ei ht hundred million Chinese . 6hM in computation neuroscience. and materials needed to en ineer patho ens are more accessi)le than those needed to )uild nuclear unli*e other weapons. = Septem)er . the possi)ility of a lo)al thermonuclear war and a resultin nuclear winter. ?he CC61s Bast Mitch 8am)le: :iolo ical and 'uclear <ar. &n China we ha"e seen )e ars who coerced people to i"e them money )y threatenin to sta) themsel"es with *ni"es or pierce their throats with lon nails. and nuclear weapons to threaten the world. and lethality mi ht )e capa)le of causin human e9tinction . http://en lish.or /we)0edition/features/how0can0we0reduce0the0ris*0of0human0e9tinction# ?he ris*s from anthropo enic ha. Stoc*holmIA'MI7ason 8. $athenyI6hM candidate in Fealth 6olicy and $ana ement at 7ohns Fop*ins. to achie"e its ends. which disre ards human life. ?he intentional or unintentional release of en ineered patho ens with hi h transmissi)ility. Fow can we reduce the ris* of human e9tinctionR. patho ens with wide host ran es in multiple species can reach e"en isolated indi"iduals.Chinese Econom" – $NC Disad o t#eighs and t rns the case – Chinese econ decline ca ses glo-al decline and lasho t – that’s ?amins!i and 3o"al. the li*elihood may increase as )iotechnolo ies continue to impro"e at a rate ri"alin $oore's Baw. . would not hesitate to *ill two hundred million Americans. Althou h reat pro ress has )een made in reducin the num)er of nuclear weapons in the world. seen such a an ster who would use )iolo ical.>>3. 6atho ens ha"e )een implicated in the e9tinctions of many wild species. Staff O %poch ?imes. :ut we ha"e ne"er. ?hat is the main theme of the speeches. Assistant professor of physics at the Gni"ersity of 'o"i Sad.” it would not )e surprisin if the CC6 resorts to the use of -iological2 chemical. chemical. special consultant to the Center for :iosecurity at the Gni"ersity of 6itts)ur hIA'MI$ilan $. patho ens are self0replicatin . Ad"ances in synthetic )iolo y mi ht ma*e it possi)le to en ineer patho ens capa)le of e9tinction0le"el pandemics.ards appear at present lar er than those from natural ones. until now.html# Since the 6arty1s life is “a)o"e all else. http://www.the)ulletin. allowin a small arsenal to )ecome e9ponentially destructi"e .prefer o r scenario – its gro nded in statistical st dies and empirical anal"sis And – o r Ellis evidence indicates it #o ld collapse the CC4 – Ca ses -io#eapon se 3exing F (San. ?his theme is murderous and utterly e"il. ?his )loody confession has confirmed Extinction Sand-erg et al PI+esearch Fellow at the Future of Fumanity &nstitute at J9ford Gni"ersity. <hile such an e"ent seems unli*ely today. ?he *nowled e.com/news/H030H/4>=SH.

nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the Gnited States and %urope and chairman of the :oard of ?rustees of the &talian &nstitute for &nternational Affairs (&A&# in +ome. ha"e potential reli ious dimensions. ?he first scenario entails the premature of the post0<estphalian system. Colume H4.. al)eit at the ris* of o"ersimplification. &ssue . --S O -4>P ?wo neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the ran e of possi)ilities.->3>/>>4=D443. the half0full lass of multilateralism. perhaps e"en involving the se of n clear #eapons. the %uropean Gnion. %uropean inte ration and nuclear non0proliferation. Fe ser"ed as &A& president from -=S= to .>>=. emptyin . e9clusi"e self0interest and re@ection of outside interference would li*ely )e amplified. H4:. Gntil . Sur"i"al. A 6ost0Secular <orldR MJ&: ->. . $any of the more li*ely conflicts. competin or con"er in with secular a)solutes such as un)ridled nationalism. Jne or more of the acute tensions apparent today e"ol"es into an open and traditional conflict )etween states.>>-. includin the G' and tensions such as those related to immi ration mi ht )ecome un)eara)le .>--.>-. the secular rational approach #o ld -e sidestepped )y a return to theocratic a)solutes.. Short of war. such as )etween &srael and &ran or &ndia and 6a*istan. with conseLuences for peace and democracy similar to those of the first . the "ulnera)ility of which we ha"e @ust e9perienced.A$( Collapse Doesn’t >o N clear >oes n clear 5erlini 11 NCesare $erlini. the unlimited e9ercise of national crum)lin so"erei nty. Cesare 'A 6ost0Secular <orldR'. he also occupied the position of e9ecuti"e "ice chairman of the Council for the Gnited States and &taly.. ?he crisis mi ht )e tri ered )y a collapse of the lo)al economic and financial system. Jne way or another. and the prospect of a second 8reat Mepression. which he co0founded in -=34. April . with particular focus on nuclear science and technolo y. <hate"er the tri er. Fis areas of e9pertise include transatlantic relations. Familiar issues of creed and identity could )e e9acer)ated. perhaps entirely.HS->-H Article +eLuests: Jrder +eprints : +eLuest 6ermissions 6u)lished in: @ournal Sur"i"al. pa es --S 0 -4> 6u)lication FreLuency: D issues per year Mownload 6MF Mownload 6MF (4HS (:# Ciew +elated Articles ?o cite this Article: $erlini.

Nation#ide re-ellion -ecomes a real possi-ilit" #hen large n m-ers of people are pset a-o t the same iss e at the same time.” . A massi"e en"ironmental or pu)lic health disaster could also trigger regime collapse. Another dan erous scenario is a domestic or international crisis in #hich the CC4 leaders feel compelled to lash o t a ainst 7apan.Ext – China Collapse Escalates Economic gro#th prevents CC4 lash o t Susan Shir! (director of the Gni"ersity of California system0wide &nstitute on 8lo)al Conflict and Cooperation# and Fo $iu Lam (professor of China and 6acific +elations at &+/6S and Meputy Assistant Secretary of State in the :ureau of %ast Asia and 6acific Affairs# $88@ Fra ile China As China’s leaders well !no#2 the greatest political ris! lyin ahead of them is the possi-ilit" of an economic crash that thro#s millions of #or!ers o t of their /o-s or sends millions of depositors to withdraw their sa"in s from the sha*y )an*in system. or the Gnited States )ecause from their point of "iew not lashin out mi ht endan er 6arty rule. especially if people1s li"es are endan ered )y a media co"er0up imposed )y 6arty authorities. ?aiwan.

Ext – Latin America ?$ Econ
Latin America !e" to China’s econom"- trade and reso rces Jiang $88@
NShi9ue 7ian , Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences?hree Factors in the +ecent Me"elopment of Sino0Batin American +elations, %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America, .>>S, http://www.wilsoncenter.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.pdfP Chinese achievements in the realm of reform and opening to the o tside #orld have -een impressive. :ut there are pro)lems. First of all, China is facing increasing friction #ith the developed countries, which ha"e freLuently used anti0dumpin practices and other means to restrict Chinese e9ports. 6rom time to time2 the United States ses economic leverage to exert political press re on China. ?herefore, it is imperative for China to red ce economic dependence pon the Gnited States and other developed co ntries% ?o reali;e this oal, China needs to di"ersify its trade partners . &n this re ard2 Latin America, a continent with a population of more than H>> million people and an economic si;e of more than GS,. trillion2 is certainl" a -ig mar!et for Chinese prod cts% Second, while China is a nation with a reat amount of natural resources, )ecause of its hu e population 2 China is also lac!ing reso rces in terms of per capita distri)ution. Consider forest area and tim)er, for e9ample. Accordin to

recent statistics, China1s forest area is -.. million sLuare *ilometers, and tim)er resources are a)out -> )illion cu)ic meters. ?hese two a)solute num)ers are hu e compared to many other countries in the world. :ut in per capita terms, China1s forest area is merely >.-> hectares, and tim)er resources are less than -> cu)ic meters, as compared with the world a"era e of -.>S hectares and 34 cu)ic meters, respecti"ely. Accordin to a report

China’s per capita reserves of coal2 oil and gas are onl" @8 percent2 11 percent2 and K percent of the #orld average.- Jn the one hand, the nation should ma*e strenuous efforts to up rade the efZ ciency of usin its resources2 on the other, it needs to locate s pplies from a-road% Latin America is the perfect place from #hich China can import man" !inds of needed reso rces . Additionally, the importance of Batin America oes )eyond the economic area. 6olitically spea*in , Latin America co ld -e a partner for China and other de"elopin countries in their efforts to oppose he emony, esta)lish a @ust world order, and a harmonious world. .oth Latin America and China share man" common or similar positions to#ards some of the ma/or international iss es. Also noteworthy is the fact that in the Gnited 'ations, each country en@oys one "ote, and China has the potential to #in s pport from Latin American co ntries on man" iss es%
pu)lished in .>>D,

Latin America is !e" to the Chinese econom"-Ne# mar!ets are
necessar"

Ellis 8E

is a professor of national security studies, modelin , amin , and simulation with the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies, with a research focus on Batin America1s relationships with e9ternal actors, includin China, +ussia, and &ran, ?he 'ew Chinese %n a ement <ith Batin America: Gnderstandin &ts Mynamics and the &mplications for the +e ion, Air and Space 6ower 7ournal, =/.-/>D,
(+. %"an %llis,

http://www.airpower.ma9well.af.mil/ap@international/ap@0 s/.>>D/4tri>D/ellisen .html#
Altho gh China is a large and reso rce-rich nation2 rapid and s stained Chinese economic gro#th over the past $@ "ears has generated levels of demand for ra# materials that exceed #hat it can prod ce domesticall" or o-tain #ithin Asia% Since -=S=, the Chinese economy has rown at an a"era e rate of =.D[, includin a
->.-[ rate of rowth in .>>/, and a forecast rate of =.=[ in .>>D. $oreo"er, the current (--th# Chinese H0Eear 6lan concentrates resources on e9tendin industriali;ation to the nation1s interior. ,he res lting dedication

of reso rces on fixed capital formation f rther a gments Chinese reso rce cons mption% Althou h China only accounts for /./[ of lo)al 8'6, for e9ample, the nation consumes S./[
of the world1s oil, 4-[ of the world1s coal, 4>[ of the world1s iron, .S[ of the world1s rolled steel, and />[ of the world1s cement.5 <n the s ppl" side2 China has simpl" -een na-le to !eep p

#ith demand in !e" sectors s ch as petrole m and selected metals2 despite am-itio s exploration efforts and investment in capacit" expansion. Chinese a riculture has )een limited, for e9ample, )y inefficiency, limits in suita)le terrain, and
encroachment )y de"elopers on traditional a ricultural lands. From .>>- to .>>H, for e9ample, Chinese demand for soy)ean oil dou)led. <hile the story is sli htly different in each sector, the com)ination of demand rowth and supply limitations has )een an e9plosi"e rowth in Chinese imports of a wide ran e of lo)al commodities. &n the first -- months of .>>H, for e9ample, China reported that it imported ,-44.S )illion in primary products, representin a .D..[ increase o"er the same period in .>>/. <ithin this cate ory, Chinese imports of fuel products increased )y 4H[, while minerals and metal imports increased )y .D.-[. 5 China’s increasingl" ac te

need to import the reso rces that it re: ires to s stain its high rates of economic gro#th not onl" has increased its demands on its c rrent net#or! of s ppliers2 - t has prompted it to engage in an ever--roader search to sec re f t re so rces of s ppl"% ,his : est has led China not only into ne# forms of economic and political engagement #ith Latin America , )ut also in Africa, the $iddle %ast, and other parts of the world. Altho gh China’s other glo-al initiatives are also important2 it has a partic larl" strong interest in Latin America -eca se the region is oriented to export significant : antities of a -road range of primar" prod cts that China needs to s stain its economic gro#th%

Latin America is !e" to the Chinese econom" .lac!more 1A
(%mma :lac*more is a researcher in the Sustaina)le $ar*ets 8roup at &&%M, +eport scopes sustaina)ility of China0 Batin America relations, &nternational &nstitute for %n"ironment and Me"lopment, H/=/-4, http://www.iied.or /report0 scopes0sustaina)ility0china0latin0america0relations#

Development2 sa"s s staina-ilit" is increasingl" on the agenda in trade and investment relations -et#een the t#o regions2 and that Chinese companies are sho#ing signs of learning from the previo s mista!es the"’ve made in international investments.5 ?he discussion paper uses primary and secondary data sources and inter"iews with sta*eholders to e9amine Chinese trade and in"estment in minin , a riculture and forestry in Chile, :ra;il and 6eru. ;t sho#s ho# complex interactions -et#een reg lations2 shareholder and investor demands2 cons mer preferences and civil societ" press re shape the s staina-ilit" of these ne# relationships% ) OChina’s demand for materials – from tim-er and minerals to so"-eans2 its desire to access ne# mar!ets and its strateg" of so th-so th cooperation and 9soft po#er’ diplomac" are driving a -oom in trade and investment that #ill have important implications for the s staina-ilit" of nat ral reso rce development in the re ion,Y says %mma :lac*more, the report1s lead author. 5 Y,o satisf" the demands of investors2
A report pu)lished today )y the &nternational &nstitute for %n"ironment and

cons mers and other sta!eholders2 - sinesses involved in this trade increasingl" appl" international standards that aim to ens re s staina-le2 acco nta-le operations%O

-> )illion in return for as many as . with China ta*in -. as reported )y $erco6ress. . and the" #elcome o r companies.il1s national oil company.n order to meet rising ind strial needs and consumer demand.>>.il1s state0controlled oil company. &n .Chinese <il – $NC Specificall" – !e" to Chinese oil sec rit" Cerna 11 N$ichael. also tar etin :ra. //-H/--.>>D.randen. for the first time in history.il1s lar est sin le e9port mar*et.-D )illion in"estment deal #ith the Chinese 'ational 6etroleum Corporation (CN4C# for oil exploration in the Jrinoco +i"er to develop heav" cr de oil reso rces (%conomist. the C'6C has in"ested .rg . (7ohnson. &n . . &nacio Bula da Sil"a.chinacenter. %cuador.” said <an Eun*un.il.>>=.S.>>/.-> )illion for :ra.uela. . O Gnited States Air Force. and China’s mercantilist approach to sec ring reso rces stand to raise the energ" sec rit" sta!es of interested parties incl ding the US. GSA<C Strate y +esearch 6ro@ect. ?hen in .. &n . and his Chinese counterpart. ?his is )ut one e9ample of how )ein pushed to their limits. Fowe"er.--. China reasserted o#nership to nearly 3> percent of the South China Sea. China has p rs ed investments and agreements #ith a variet" of Latin American oil prod cers. “7ust one of China1s loans. disputes o"er ownership of the Spratly and 6aracel &slands. more than 4D[ of Chile1s total e9ports were directed toward Asia. greater energ" insec rit" e: ates to the greater . p. 4/.-D Feelin s of insecurity of those with competin interests in either the %%T or the Spratly or 6aracel &slands could pro"e challen in especially if China e9pands its offshore production of oil/natural as and e9tends its control o"er the "essels or pipelines that deli"er them "ia the South China Sea.>>=#. China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G. &t was not only in . *ene+ ela anno nced a . o"erlappin %%Ts. “Co ntries in So th America ha"e ara)le land and need o r technolog" and investment.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P China’s thirst for nat ral reso rces has sent the co ntr" in search of s staina-le s pplies of oil2 soy and iron ore. )illion in all appro"ed financin )y the &nter0American :an* in . Chinese energ" insec rit" ca ses Asia #ar . Cene. China +esearch Center.>>H#.S. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion. eclipsin the G.n So th America.>>=#.>>3.D )illion /oint investment f nd for infrastructure pro/ects at home and for oil refineries in China a-le to process *ene+ elan heav" cr de oil (Santiso.>>S *ene+ ela agreed to a . :ra. deputy director of the A riculture and +ural Affairs Committee of the 'ational 6eople1s Con ress. China is devo ring Latin American commodities and eyein a mar*et of H>> million people.uela1s Jrimulsion fuel in Chinese power plants. the . China )ecame :ra.il1s then0 president.4>> million in technolo y to use Cene. 6resident Chave+ said shifting exports to China #o ld help end dependenc" on sales to the United States :ra.” accordin to ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes. is almost as much as the . s pplementing its claims to the Spratl" and 4aracel . .>>> China is sei+ing lending opport nities in Latin America when traditional lenders such as the &nter0American Me"elopment :an* are )arrels a day of crude oil for ten years (%conomist. China1s %ner y &nsecurity and the South China Sea Mispute.>->.slands% 6or China and its nei h)ors. Cene.//$811 (Colonel 7ames A. $eanwhile. Experts s ggest energ" shortages provide the necessar" catal"st for arms races2 n clear proliferation2 and other forms of insta-ilit"K in essence. Since then China has loo*ed )eyond Chile.>>=. . 6etro)ras.his exemplifies *ene+ ela’s desire to -rea! a#a" from the U%S% Murin a "isit to China in . Ar entina and 6eru. . &t1s a win0win solution. territorial o#nership is integral to state sovereignt" and sec rit". http://www. Bui. . D0S# &n . Fu 7intao.>>S#. Chile was the first Batin American country to complete a ma@or )ilateral trade a reement with China (Santiso.[ of the total. Bater. . China has fo nd some of the most #ell-endo#ed partners in the world. si ned an a reement that allowed the China Me"elopment :an* and Sinopec to loan :ra.uela planned to increase oil e9ports to China )y 4>>.il that China went after oil.>>S#.>>> )arrels per day.

es its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with ?aiwan and the Gnited States2 7apan's "ice defense minister is forced to resi n after e9tollin the )enefits of nuclear weapons2 and +ussia00whose Far %ast nuclear deployments alone ma*e it the lar est Asian nuclear power00 stru les to maintain territorial coherence. 40.-S Bi*e the GS. then the international arms control agreements that ha"e )een painsta*in ly ne otiated o"er the past /> years will crum)le. Fi"e of these states ha"e nuclear weapons2 the others are capa)le of constructin them. as China )ecomes more dependent on oil imports. its a)ility to ensure access to ener y at an afforda)le price )ecomes e"en more critical and could pro"e difficult i"en increasin lo)al mar*et uncertainty. which in turn. the first com)at se of a n clear #eapon since -=/H. Gltimately.. where proliferation pressures are already )uildin more Luic*ly &f a nuclear -rea!o t ta*es place in Asia. China’s dependence on imports co ld lead to a vicio s c"cle as it str ggles to find #a"s to mitigate ris!s and protect its investments in order to offset its insec rit". Consider what is already happenin : 'orth (orea continues to play uessin ames with its nuclear and missile pro rams2 South (orea wants its own missiles to match 6yon yan 's2 . $oreo"er. the Gnited States could find itself em)roiled in its fourth war on the Asian continent in si9 decades00a costly re)u*e to those who see* the safety of Fortress America )y hidin )ehind national missile defenses. stimulate additional actions. critical decisions ta*en )y any one of these o"ernments could cascade into the second great #ave of nuclear0weapon proliferation. ?he )loc*s would fall Luic*est and hardest in Asia. Forei n 6olicy. this warrants special consideration in the eo0political realm.. perhaps. )rin in re ional and glo-al economic and political insta-ilit" and. ?hese nations form an interloc*in Asian nuclear reaction chain that "i)rates dan erously with each new de"elopment.pro-a-ilit" of geopolitical rivalr".ndia and 4a!istan shoot across )orders while runnin a slow0motion nuclear arms race2 China moderni. Bi*e neutrons firin from a split atom. &f the freLuency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase. Be9is# than anywhere else in the world. >oes n clear Cirincione $888 (7oseph. .-3 8i"en lo)al dependence on China1s economy and the potential impact of shrin*in ener y supplies. one nation's actions can tri er reactions throu hout the re ion. Mirector of the 'on06roliferation 6ro@ect O C%&6.

it #o ld develop 1F declining fields in Tumano in eastern Cene. spea*in on condition of anonymity. http://www.3 million )arrels a day from H.uela. Energ" anal"sts sa" these deals.uela and other So th American energ" prod cers% O?he Chinese are enterin without political e9pectations or demands. million of them imported. &t was fear of supply shorta es that pushed a )arrel of oil to .uela.S. they are ta*en "ery seriously. Cene. *ene+ ela has emerged as an o-vio s contender for :ei@in 's attention. $uch of the oil that will )e e9ploited in the future will )e tarli*e.Ext – China <il . use Chinese state )ilateral loans and financin . is already a leading competitor to the Gnited States in its glo-al search for oil2 as and minerals 0 nota)ly in Central Asia. with a "iew to e9ports to China.uela has in"ited China to participate in promisin pro@ects li*e e9plorin for oil in the Jrinoco )elt.Y Chinese in"estors pursue mar*et and strate ic o)@ecti"es . headed )y +ichard Bu ar. Chinese interest in Cene. the hemisphere has -een a lo# priorit" for the U%S%2 and the Chinese are ta*in ad"anta e of it2O the aide said. Cha"e. Y?he Gnited States should not )e concerned.. he un"eiled a statue of Simon :oli"ar in :ei@in .uela. &n the most recent.' and the" can invest -illions of dollars. senior committee aide said. particularly the wor*in s of its hea"y0oil refineries. And o)"iously. Chinese companies. Analysts and Cene. and its consumption in . which ha"e su)stantial o"ernment help.Y China's entry is worrisome to some American ener y officials./ million )arrels a day.Y said Barry 8oldstein.n ret rn2 China is offering aid that helps Chave+ . ?he a reements included lon 0ran e plans for Chinese sta*es in oil and as fields that are now mostly considered mar inal )ut which could )ecome "alua)le with )i in"estments.> years is pro@ected to rise to -. which has one of the world's reat deposits of crude oil. Y?hese companies tend to ma*e uneconomic )ids. Mespite tensions )etween Cha"e.>>H/>4/>-/)usiness/world)usiness/>-iht0oil..Y +afael +amire. Cene. Y. Y commercial ones.uela. ?he G. 'ew Eor* ?imes. told the Senate %ner y Committee early in Fe)ruary. Fu o Cha"e. accordin to the G./>H. Y. ?rade )etween the two countries could rise to . and other ri"als. one of four main pro"iders of imported crude oil to the Gnited States.H-. Y&t's a country that permits you to et more out of a reements than @ust ener y accords.Y Fran* Cerrastro. has promoted these plans in three "isits to China.htmlR pa ewanted\allV!r\>P Latin America is -ecoming a rich destination in ChinaMs glo-al : est for energ".com/. Analysts say that part of China's effort is to learn a)out Cene.uela to produce fuel for Chinese power plants. the Cene.Y China. said of China. a nderlined &ashingtonMs lac! of attention to Latin America% YFor years and years.4 .uela's ener y minister. Senate Forei n +elations Committee.uelan oil stop flowin . and spend wildly.Y said +o er ?issot. recently as*ed the 8o"ernment Accounta)ility Jffice to e9amine contin ency plans should Cene.uela's am)assador to the Gnited States. with the Chinese si nin accords with Cene.uela remains a ma@or source for American oil companies. an analyst who e"aluates political and economic ris*s in leadin oil0producin countries for 6FC %ner y 8roup in <ashin ton.uelan leader. )uy -.S>> million credit line to )uild housin . Y&e donMt !no# eno gh a-o t #hether the" #ill lead to larger pro/ects2 . China's si hts are focused mostly on Cene. Cene. especially )ecause the Gnited States is )ecomin more dependent on forei n oil at a time when forei n reser"es remain ti ht. 4/.H officials and )usinessmen.DL China ta!ing advantage of lo# U%S% commitment no# – !e" to energ" sec rit" 6orero 8F N7uan. nearly -. as a country with )illions to in"est.uela is a relati"ely short tan*er trip from the Gnited States. said in an inter"iew. as Cene. crude oil for April deli"ery was at .uela.uela hopes to )e a world competitor.he"Mre ta!ing advantage of the fact that we don't care as much as we should a)out Batin America.hese are steps "o have to ta!e to have a longer-term relationship. the world's second0lar est consumer of oil.. accompanied )y a dele ation of -. in his oal of liftin his compatriots out of po"erty.S. which ships more than D> percent of its crude oil to the Gnited States.HD million )arrels now. China accounted for /> percent of lo)al rowth in oil demand in the last four years.uela. Cene. president of the 6etroleum &ndustry +esearch Foundation in 'ew Eor*. in Mecem)er. can dispense government aid to sec re deals2 ta*e ad"anta e of lower costs in China and draw on hefty credit lines from the o"ernment and Chinese financial institutions to compete with G.HH in Jcto)er. ?he Gnited States now uses . Y?his e9pansion in no way means that we will )e withdrawin from the 'orth American mar*et for political reasons. Jn ?uesday. O.Y :ernardo Al"are. +epu)lican of &ndiana. in Caracas late in 7anuary. sho# that China is #illing to #ade in slo#l"2 #ith larger am-itions in mind. Cene. and searchin for natural as offshore 0 where Cene.uelan o"ernment officials say that tie will not )e se"ered.>.>. and the :ush administration. Cice 6resident Ten Ain hon of China.nytimes. the $iddle %ast and Africa.. &ith h ge oil reserves and a president who says that his country needs to di"ersify its ener y )usiness. China's oil diplomacy lures Batin America. director and a senior fellow at the Center for Strate ic and &nternational Studies in <ashin ton. %ner y Mepartment. Another proposal would lead to the construction of a pipeline from Cene. thou h mostly mar inal.he" / st sa"2 M.uela to Colom)ia's 6acific ports. Gnder accords si ned in :ei@in in Mecem)er and in Caracas in 7anuary. reLuirin an intricate and e9pensi"e refinin process.Mm coming here to invest.uelan technolo y.D= a )arrel in premar*et tradin on the 'ew Eor* $ercantile %9chan e. says it is e9plorin plans to re)uild a 6anamanian pipeline to pump crude oil to the 6acific. ChinaMs voracio s econom" is an attractive mar!et for Cene. in"estin in lar ely untapped mar*ets li*e 6eru and e9plorin possi)ilities in :oli"ia and Colom)ia.S.>>> )arrels of fuel oil a month and )uild a plant in Cene. si ned -= cooperation a reements with the Cene. dri"in up retail prices and hurtin economies.uelans a .t m" sense is that the" #ill%O Gnder the a reements.Y Still. rather than China alread" operates t#o oil fields in Cene.

<orldcrunch. As the second0lar est economy in Batin America. and :ra.>/in0america0>4=0s0)ac*yard0china0 >4=0s0risin 0influence0in0latin0america/forei n0policy0trade0economy0in"estments0ener y/c=s--D/S/# .Y Cha"e. H/D/. At the same time 2 China has made significant energ" deals2 for oil in partic lar.>>/. iron ore. Chile. includin a history of Chinese immi ration to countries the recent decade-long s rge in relations has -een primaril" driven -" trade and investment ties% ?hou h those ties have also underpinned rene#ed and strengthened diplomatic relations )etween China and countries throu hout the re ion. Fope remains that China #ill contin e to explore increased investment opport nities in $e9ico (and also possi)ly in 6anama and Colom)ia.. especially economic ties. with whom the Gnited States recently si ned free trade a reements# in order to le"era e the )enefits of pro9imity to 'orth American e9port mar*ets.uela.. China has. http://carne ieendowment. )indin force remains economic rather than political or ideolo ical. and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese ch of Latin America has -ecome cr cial to its need for ra# materials and mar!ets2 with trade at . director of the Batin America and Cari))ean Center at Florida &nternational Gni"ersity.com/china0. ?his )oom in economic relations has -een primarily driven -" strong Chinese demand for So th American mineral. <hile there are other dimensions to the Batin America0China relationship. 6eru.4. is not @ust interested in Cene. Y<e ha"e )een producin and e9portin oil for more than ->> years. is amon China's priorities.. )illion.uela. e"en if China has )een careful to downplay the ideolo ical aspects of these relationships. economic o)ser"er. the $e9ican economy has )een challen ed not only )y a ne ati"e trade )alance with China )ut also )y increased Chinese competition for e9ports to *ey 'orth American mar*ets. &n order to further solidify trade ties to *ey 6acific coast tradin partners.-. whether it is oil in Cene. tin in Chile or as in :oli"ia. ?his has fueled a mi9ture of risin hopes and an9ieties amon o"ernment and )usiness leaders in Batin America.he main -eneficiaries of the )oom in economic relations have -een a small num)er of commodit"-rich So th American co ntries. Latin America has -ecome an important destination for increasin amounts of Chinese man fact red-good exports ran in from modems to motorcycles. soy)eans.3H )illion in the first -> months of .uela to %cuador and :oli"ia ha"e all emphasi. &nstead. told Chinese )usinessmen in Mecem)er. &' A$%+&CA'S :AC(EA+M: CF&'A'S +&S&'8 &'FBG%'C% &' BA?&' A$%+&CA. Cha"e. said.il and 6eru. .>>3O>= financial crisis. in recent years China has )ecome the num)er0one tradin partner (includin e9ports and imports# for :ra.worldcrunch. howe"er. with countries li*e Cene..>>> and .ed the importance of shared socialist "alues with China. An9ieties are rooted in concerns that the re ion1s ties to China repeat dysfunctional historical patterns of commodity dependence and a “hollowin out” of local industry in the face of Chinese manufacturin and e9port prowess. and oil.>-4. &n particular. and )etween .>>3 and . analysts say. Chinese involvement in Latin America is Ogro#ing -" leaps and -o nds2O said %duardo fatherland. $u 8amarra. :ra. and energ" reso rces li!e copper. and 6eru and the num)er0two tradin partner for Ar entina.>-.>-> alone China1s investment in the re ion expanded more than 1P8 percent./>//>D/china0s0latin0american0 interests/aSa"P China-Latin America relations. Y:ut these ha"e )een ->> years of domination )y the Gnited States. ?he well hopes ride on e"er0e9pandin trade and in"estment lin*s as as the possi-ilit" that China might prove to -e a positi"e alternative to lon 0 standin American economic and political po#er in the region. http://www. the main li*e Cu)a and 6eru. //D/-. China has also si ned free trade a reements with Chile.>-> China0Batin America trade expanded over 12F88 percent. have -oomed in the last decade.uela. a ricultural.il.Y China. Some Batin American leaders have reached o t to China in an effort to develop more extensive political ties.or /. Beft0leanin political leaders from Cu)a and Cene.il. :etween . thou h. $inin . thus far $e9ico has )een a *ey countere9ample to the South American trend of )oomin commodity e9ports to China. China1s Batin American &nterests. 'ow we are free. <ithin the last two years China has also Luic*ly leapt to )ecome the num)er0one source of forei n direct in"estment in :ra. a)out H> percent more than in .il. and more recently Costa +ica. -een eager to cooperate with its fellow :+&C mem)er. %cuador. in leadin multilateral calls for re"isions to the international financial system in the wa*e of the . +%S&M%'? SCFJBA+ CA+'%8&%0?S&'8FGA C%'?%+ FJ+ 8BJ:AB 6JB&CE.>>4. At the same time. Latin American oil !e" to Chinese energ" sec rit" Iiaoxia FDE (<an Wiao9ia. Chinese economic ties !e" to <il imports 6erchen 1$ N$att.)illion this year from .

China has cons med one-third of the #orldMs ne# oil prod ction and -ecome the #orldMs second-largest oil importer% 5ore than half of ChinaMs oil demand depends on imports2 #hich increases the insta-ilit" of its energ" sec ri ty.t sho ld -e emphasi+ed that the vol me of oil trade -et#een ) Asian co ntries and LAC has -een steadil" rising% From . &n -==4. China1s 5 a)o"e0 mentioned partners ran e widely from the left to the 5 ri ht of the spectrum.5 BAC in itself cannot safe uard China1s ener y security.5 Chinese oil companies made opport ne se of three significant occ rrences in the Latin American co ntries CLACG( the ) open h"drocar-on ind str" and privati+ation in the 1HH8’s2 ) the nationali+ation -" left#ing governments C$88A-$88@G2 ) and the international financial crisis (.ra+il and Ec ador2 in $8182 ) thirteen ne# -ig deals #ere made -" Chinese oil companies ) in LAC2 incl ding the mergers and ac: isitions of the regional ) assets of international oil companies s ch as repsol2 4an ) American Energ"2 and <ccidental 4etrole m.nl/sites/default/files/&&AS!'BD.43 percent 5 to -3.&nitially.and its exchanges #ith Latin America th s are endo#ed #ith real s -stantive p rpose%) Among the n mero s needs of China2 the demand for oil has al#a"s -een the most po#erf l driving force% &n the past 4> years. Mi"ersification is ine"ita)le. won e9ploration 5 ri hts in 6eru2 it pro"ed to )e a milestone for China1s ener y 5 cooperation with BAC. one of China1s national oil companies. According to the . . 5 Fowe"er.!4>.. China re ards BAC as a potential re ion to di"ersify 5 her crude oil import. Since then2 #ith ChinaMs economic -oom2 the s ppl" of energ" and reso rces has grad all" -ecome a pro-lem that plag es China -. 5 :ra. 6eru.4 Statistical revie# ) of &orld Energ"2 China imported $F%A million tons of cr de ) oil from LAC in $8182 acco nting for P%E percent of Chinese glo-al imports and 18 percent of Latin American #orld exports% . Ar entina and 5 Colum)ia.>->.n addition to a large n m-er of ) loan-for-oil deals #ith *ene+ ela2 . with the first three of those countries in"ol"ed in 5 nearly 3>[ of the Chinese oil0lin*ed pro@ects. &n this conte9t. %cuador.iias.>>/ 5 to . &&AS. Latin America and its h ge reserves and prod ction capacit" nat rall" -ecame a destination for China% Latin America is critical to the Chinese goal of energ" sec rit" 'ong-o 1$ (Sun Fon )o is associate professor at the &nstitute 5 of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of China1s Academy 5 of Social Sciences. China1s acti"ities in Batin America were limited to the diplomatic le"el. <inter . 4artic larl"2 the ) energ"-related ties -et#een China and Latin ) America have gone thro gh great developments #ithin the oil and gas intra-ind str" ) colla-orations2 incl ding cr de oil trade2 ) investments2 loans-for-oil2 technical e: ipment p rchases2 mergers and ac: isitions2 ) etc% &itho t a do -t2 the Sino-Latin American ) energ" cooperation is a significant aspect of ) the emerging ne# energ" order c rrentl" ) #itnessed in the &estern 'emisphere% CF&'A1S 6artner Countries in this re ion include Cene. 6olitically. 5 C'6C.a!ing into consideration the ne# offshore discoveries ) in . :y pro"idin funds and assistin in infrastructure constructions.3> percent of its total lo)al e9port.5 China1s Q8oin 8lo)al Strate y15 . China mana ed to interrupt diplomatic ties )etween poor Batin countries and ?aiwan.pdf# ?he China0Batin American relationship has 5 numerous strate ic implications in the current 5 international political and economic power 5 transformation. $e9ico.ndia’s s staina-le strategic cr de oil s ppliers% ) .ra+il and the h ge proven reserves in *ene+ ela2 #itho t ) a do -t2 the t#o co ntries co ld -e vie#ed in the f t re as ) China’s and .uela. BAC1s oil e9port to Asia increased from /. ?he dra on1s oil politics in Batin America.>>30. where)y the world1s economic 5 centre of ra"ity is radually shiftin towards 5 the emer in economies.>-. Cu)a. 5 Chinese oil companies in Batin America are often descri)ed )y 5 media and scholars as a ressi"e.he g arantee of energ" sec rit"2 and the Chinese national ) 9>oing >lo-al Strateg"’2 #hich enco rages national enterprises ) to invest overseas2 are f ndamental .il.>--#. http://www. <ith respect to their style of strate y. Costa rica. ris*0lo"in and opportunistic.

factors highl" integrated ) into Chinese polic" to#ards Latin America% A ne# trend ) emerging from this sit ation is the increased cooperation ) -et#een financial organi+ations and national oil companies% ) .heir commercial patterns in LAC can -e s mmed p #ith ) seven !e" fields of cooperation( 1G cr de oil trade2 $G technical ) services2 AG /oint development2 KG infrastr ct re-.ilding ) participation2 FG loan-for-oil2 EG heav" technical e: ipment ) transactions2 @G -io-f els technolog" /oint research% .

:usiness &nsider. -/.Ext – China &ar Energ" is the core iss e of island disp tes Jac!son. M. As the GS increases its strate ic en a ement in the Asia06acific re ion. which has a defense treaty with ?o*yo and is pled ed to come to the aid of 7apanese forces under attac*. <ashin ton would )e forced into a difficult spot.3/$81A ($ichael O scholar at the American %nterprise &nstitute. howe"er. &ndeed. supportin instead the status Luo of 7apanese administration of the islands. if the two sides don1t a ree to return to the status Luo ante. ?here are also mechanisms for G.he enmit" -et#een Japan and China is deep and pervasiveW there is little good #ill to tr" and avert conflict.he" escalate% A slin.he Chinese also have ta!en a hard line. . the people of -oth co ntries have a-"small" lo# perceptions of the other% Since the" are the t#o most advanced militaries in Asia2 an" tension-driven militar" /oc!e"ing -et#een them is inherentl" desta-ili+ing to the entire region. http://www. A mixt re of historical animosit"2 self-serving politics and energ" sec rit" is f eling the disp te. ?he J)ama administration has so far ta*en pains to stay neutral in the dispute2 despite its rhetoric of “pi"otin ” to the 6acific. e"ents ha"e a way of ta*in on a life of their own (and one doesn1t need a Schlieffen 6lan to feel trapped into actin #. <ashin ton also has a"oided any stance on the so"erei nty of the Sen*a*us. the disp te over the islands #ill contin e to ca se political and economic headaches for China and Japan2 #ith neither acting to def se the tensions% A-e #arned recently that there #as 0no room for negotiations1 #ith China o"er the islands. ?he Sino0 7apanese Standoff. . neither government has shied a#a" from its hardline tactics over the Sen!a! s2 despite the fact that trade -et#een the t#o has dropped nearl" K percent since the crisis )e an in Septem)er.com/articles/4433H. <ne does not have to -e an alarmist to see real dangers in pla" here. ?he Sen*a*u &slands Mispute &s Forcin 7apan to +ethin* Fow &t ?rades <ith the <orld. and if ?o*yo reLuests such military tal*s. p. Bast wee*.O7apanese consultations durin a crisis. p.)usinessinsider. 'ational +e"iew. there are onl" one or t#o more r ngs on the ladder of militar" escalation -efore someone has to )ac* down or decide to initiate hostilities when challen ed.nationalre"iew. shortly after announcin the first increase in 7apanese defense spendin in more than a decade. accordin to ?he Maily Eomiuri. it has ur ed )oth sides to resol"e the issue peacefully.C.# ?his SinoO7apanese standoff also is a pro)lem for the Gnited States. :ut energ" and the control of potentially lar e h"drocar-on reserves are at the core of the disp te #hich ens res lasting tensions -et#een Asia’s economic giants% 0.he prospect of an armed clash . As :ar)ara ?uchman showed in her classic ?he 8uns of Au ust. “$y resol"e to defend our waters and territories has not chan ed at all.S.>-40-# 'e"ertheless. -/4-/$81A (Allison.he" #ill give "o a long2 historical explanation of their sovereignt" claim% . China is ea er to use the spat with 7apan as an opportunity to show off its stren th and )oost its influence in the re ion. ?hat may no lon er suffice for 7apan. $ost worryin .” the haw*ish A)e said.” Sheila Smith2 a senior fello# at the Council on Forei n +elations in <ashin ton. 6erhaps of e"en reater concern. http://www./sinondash@apanese0standoff0 michael0auslinRp \. t the idea that there are vast reso rces nder the East China Sea @ust off their coast is a tremendo s motivation for the intensit" of their territorial disp te. an editorial in the state0controlled 8lo)al ?imes warned its readers to “prepare for the worst” and said the Chinese military “shouldn1t )e hesitant to ta*e military re"en e” in response to 7apanese pro"ocations.com/diaoyu0dispute0hurts0sino0@apanese0trade0. told National >eographic late last year. &hoever does -ac! do#n #ill lose an enormo s amo nt of credi-ilit" in Asia2 and the possi-ilit" of ma/or domestic demonstrations in response. . since :ei@in would undou)tedly percei"e the holdin of such tal*s as a serious pro"ocation. . since its o"ernment saw China1s ta*in to the air o"er the Sen*a*us as a si nificant escalation and proof that :ei@in is in no mind to )ac* down from its claims.

. .-et#een Asia’s t#o largest co ntries is one that sho ld -ring -oth sides to their senses2 ..t instead the t#o seem to -e mane vering themselves into a corner from #hich it #ill -e diffic lt to escape% <ne trigger-happ" or ner"ous pilot2 and Asia co ld face its gravest crisis perhaps since &orld &ar .

mpact – .ai#an ..

:oston %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America.sti-le2 complicated -" rapidl" diverging crossstrait militar" capa-ilities and persistent political disagreements2” the report says. a new academic report concludes.5 &n a footnote. :ilaterally.e ?aiwan as a so"erei n state.5 6repared )y the CS&S1 6ro@ect on 'uclear &ssues and resultin from a year0lon study.4 reco ni.5 “.aipei to .his is a classic recipe for s rprise2 miscalc lation and ncontrolled escalation. China has sed a mi9 of economic diplomac" and military and political mo"es to !eep .>>3.ai#an%?aiwan has .ei/ing.>-4: http(DD###%taipeitimes%comDNe#sDtai#anDarchivesD$81AD8AD1ED$88AFF@$11G .es that . 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e. the report emphasi.ai#an independence #ill spar! US-China N !e #ar Lo#ther2 staff reporter in &ashington D%C%2 $81A C&illiam2 0?aiwan could spar* nuclear war: report” ?aipei ?imes: Jnline: $ar -D.ai#an from claiming independence% 8lo)ally. the dama e to ?aiwan1s political conZdence and its claims of legitimac" as a state #o ld -e seriously ndermined.”5 ?he report also Luotes :etts as sayin that neither :ei@in nor <ashin ton can fully control de"elopments that mi ht i nite a ?aiwan crisis.ai#an .ai#an’’ is one of the top iss es on its foreign polic" agenda% &ts strate y a ainst ?aiwan has )een )oth )ilateral and lo)al.ai#an2 1$ are in Latin America and the Cari--ean% ?aiwan has )een de"otin enormous efforts to retain diplomatic reco nition.S#. China’s strateg" has foc sed on developing an international nited front desi ned to marginali+e . only . . of the Gnited 'ations1 -=4 mem)er states.ai#an’s independence.ai#an’s defense.ai#an remains the single most pla si-le and dangero s so rce of tension and conflict -et#een the US and China. while at the same time the US maintains the capa-ilit" to come to .nternational Studies (CS.f these states were to s#itch recognition from .5 ?he CS&S study says: “For the foreseea)le future .0pa e report -" the <ashin ton0)ased Center for Strate ic and ..>>S. <f the $A co ntries that recogni+e .pdfP Latin America has -een a ma/or -attlegro nd of the 0foreign polic" #ar1 -et#een China and . th e sit ation remains com.ai#an over international legitimac"2 recognition2 and stat s% China’s : est to recover what it calls “the pro"ince of .” :etts wrote in a separate study of his own.ndependence – 1NC Chinese infl ence !e" to prevent .ai#an.” sa"s the /..>>. especially in Central America and the Cari--ean2 the stronghold of .ai#an is the most li!el" potential crisis that co ld trigger a n clear #ar -et#een China and the US. Gnder such circumstances.wilsoncenter. .ai#an in e"ery corner of the world. http://www.ai#an is the contingenc" in #hich n clear #eapons #o ld most li!el" .ai#an has -een intensiBed in a region far a#a" from Asia% . ?aiwan1s allies in Latin America and the Cari))ean “have helped us a lot and therefore we consider this an area of maxim m diplomatic importance %1. the strategic competition -et#een China and .ei/ing is determined to contain . 5 “.ai#an independence Li 8@ NFe Bi.5 “Altho gh tensions across the ?aiwan Strait have s -sided since )oth ?aipei and :ei@in em)raced a policy of en a ement in . Accordin to then0prime minister of ?aiwan Eu Shyi0*un in .4 million people and well protected territory. it Luotes senior fellow at the GS Council on Forei n +elations +ichard :etts descri)in ?aiwan as “the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia . Eet. Fearin ?aiwan1s push for international recognition #ill lead to its declaration of independence2 . .ei/ing contin es to -e set on a polic" to prevent .or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.

the possi)ility e9ists that they could then plan to attac* 7apan and )e in a policy of a and e"en into &ndia.pdf# A war )etween China. therefore. includin 7apan. +ussia. whose actions will determine its e"entual outcome. Australia.-ecome a ma/or factor. &n any case. as well as all other countries in the world that participate in the lo)al economy. )ecause the fate of the island is intert#ined -oth #ith the legitimac" of the Chinese Comm nist 4art" and the relia-ilit" of US defense commitments in the Asia06acific re ion. “?he Chinese0?aiwanese Conflict: 6ossi)le Futures of a Confrontation )etween China.lamp0method. ?aiwan and the G nited States has the potential to escalate into a n clear conflict and a third #orld #ar.” >oes glo-al and n clear ' n!ovic H (Bee 7. ?aiwan and the Gnited States of America”. as well as the 6acific could in turn create an international standoff and deployment of military forces to contain the threat. http://www. . American $ilitary Gni"ersity. therefore. many countries other than the primary actors could )e affected )y such a conflict. )oth (oreas.or /eCommons/ Fun*o"ic. if they were drawn into the war. Fowe"er. which ressi"e e9pansionism in %ast and Southeast Asia. if China and the Gnited States en a e in a full0 scale conflict. China. ?aiwan and Gnited States are the primary actors in this scenario. &ndia and 8reat :ritain. other countries will not )e considered in this study. there are few countries in the world that will not )e economically and/or militarily affected )y it. in which the Gnited States and China are the two most dominant mem)ers. &f China were a)le to successfully anne9 ?aiwan.

&f <ashin ton were to conclude that splittin China would )etter ser"e its national interests.> nuclear warheads that can destro" ma@or American cities. &n his )oo* ?he (orean <ar. the GS had at the time thou ht of usin nuclear weapons a ainst China to sa"e the GS from military defeat. Scholars in <ashin ton that althou h the o"ernment still a)ided )y that principle. D0. a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future GS forei n policy. &n south Asia. co ld enter a ne# and dangero s phase% <ill a full0scale Sino0GS war lead to a nuclear warR Accordin to 8eneral 7apan. 8en +id eway said that GS was confronted with two choices in (orea 0truce or a )roadened war.ca ses extinction Straits . Fe military . ?here would )e no "ictors in such a war. $atthew +id eway.imes2 $888 Straits ?imes. to a lesser e9tent. commander of the GS %i hth Army which fou ht a ainst the Chinese in the (orean <ar. short of usin nuclear weapons. president of the military0funded &nstitute for Strate ic Studies.H0. ?he GS estimates that China possesses a)out .ndependence – $NC . which could ha"e led to the use of nuclear weapons. &f China were to retaliate. #e #o ld see the destr ction of civilisation . ?he )alance of power in the $iddle %ast may )e similarly upset )y the li*es of &raL. 3 ssia ma" see! to redefine E ropeMs political landscape.China #o ld -e forced to retaliate #hich forces U%S% intervention and n clear escalation – that’s =ardle" and Bowther Dra#s in ever"one. 6an A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that :ei@in was considerin a re"iew of its Ynon first useY principle re ardin nuclear weapons.>>>. And the confla ration may not end there as opportunistic powers else#here ma" tr" to overt rn the existing #orld order% <ith the GS distracted. 8en +id eway recalled that the )i est mista*e the GS made durin the (orean <ar was to assess Chinese actions accordin to the American way of thin*in . there were stron pressures from the military to drop it. &n the re ion. this means South (orea.ai#an .ai#an might seem inconceiva-le2 it cannot -e r led o t entirel"2 for China p ts sovereignt" a-ove ever"thing else. the 6hilippines and. then a full0scale war )ecomes una"oida)le. <hile the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over . $a@or08eneral Than Lian . hostilities )etween &ndia and 6a*istan. each armed with its own nuclear arsenal. &f the GS had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China lon )efore the latter acLuired a there is little hope of winnin a #ar against China H> years later.” ln ?F% hi h0intensity scenario postulates a cross0strait war escalatin into a full0scale war )etween the GS and China. #o ld em-roil other co ntries far and near and 0horror of horrors raise the possi)ility of a nuclear war % east Asia will )e set on fire. Sin apore. :ei@in also seems prepared to o for the nuclear option % similar capa)ility.Conflict on such a scale 0 :ei@in has already told the GS and 7apan pri"ately that it considers any country pro"idin )ases and lo istics support to any GS forces attac*in China as )elli erent parties open to its retaliation. “'o one ains in war o"er ?aiwan.ai#an independence ca ses n clear #ar. told a atherin at the <oodrow <ilson &nternational Centre for said leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country ris*ed dismem)erment as a res lt of foreign intervention% 8en +id eway said that should that come to pass..

ai#an are fo nd in Latin America and the Cari--ean.ai#an diplomatic stat s2 and one-fo rth of them are in Latin America: Costa +ica. Fonduras.)illion @oint "enture to e9pand the country1s petroleum refinery.e the 6+C. most of Latin America had diplomatic relations #ith . Althou h the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China does not pu)licly threaten to )loc* in"estment in or loans to countries that do not reco ni. ?e" to prevent independence Jiang $88@ NShi9ue 7ian .ai#an. http://www.4>> million in o"ernment Miplomatic +eco nition of ?aiwan. s ch Chinese generosit" #as directed to#ard the other co ntries in the region that still recogni+ed .Ext – Solves .//>H. ?aiwan pays dearly for this reco nition. &hen Costa 3ica changed its diplomatic recognition from ?aiwan to the 6+C in $ay .. #hile simultaneously n rt ring expectations regarding the opport nities that diplomatically recogni+ing the 43C co ld -ring.>--. -st Luarter .ai#an represents an important iss e of 4olitical legitimac" and internal sec rit"% Currently.ai#an recognition Ellis 11 N+. .pdfP government of . Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences?hree Factors in the +ecent Me"elopment of . %l Sal"ador. pro"idin de"elopment aid and disaster assistance to these states.or /research/reports/.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America. &n the -=S>s. Cu)a's Fidel Castro re ime esta)lished ties with China in -=D>. for e9ample. pu)lic wor*s.herita e.Chinese Soft 6ower in Batin America. &n part. as well as 6+C aid in facilitatin access to Chinese mar*ets )y traditional Costa +ican products such as coffee.edu/press/li)/ima es/@fL0 D>/7FAD>!3H0=-!%llis. 1$ of the $A nations in the #orld that diplomaticall" recogni+e the government of .ndu.solation !e" to prevent independence Johnson 8F NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies.ei/ingMs plan to -ring it -ac! into the fold has -een to isolate . it received an aid pac!age that included an . 6anama.ndependence Chinese economic infl ence !e" to prevent . and ma!es such investments and mar*et access diffic lt for those co ntries that do not recogni+e it. at ?he Ferita e Foundation. http://www. "arious hi hway. and 6ara uay. China repeatedl" emphasi+es the iss e in its p -lic diplomac" in the region . Chile led a ma@or shift in fa"or of the 6+C. and a .ai#an in order to demonstrate the types of )enefits that could )e made a"aila)le if they too were to chan e their diplomatic posture.>>S. Assistant 6rofessor of 'ational Security Studies in the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies at the 'ational Mefense Gni"ersity. ->/. For the 6+C. %"an.ai#an diplomaticall"% &n the -=H>s.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP Since the -=/= ci"il war2 . ?hen. 8uatemala.ai#an as a Orenegade provinceO that m st -e re nified #ith the rest of China% 4art of . the purchase of .ai#an has -een separate from the 43C2 and the 43C vie#s .34 million soccer stadium. the )onds. Currently 2 onl" $F co ntries accord . and aid pro@ects. 'icara ua. a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies.

China’s infl ence and C -a and *ene+ ela is strong no#2 pressing against . Comandante. the Chinese are ne otiatin to )uild a . Colom)ia and *ene+ ela.D. Y ChinaMs relations #ith Latin America and the Cari--ean have never -een so close. althou h the GS remains the re ion's main economic partner. Fu 7intao. --0-=0 $88P N“&nternational: China's influence: 6resident's Batin America tour cements :ei@in 's trade clout”. ?here is already a . &t is a mem)er of more than -4> international or ani.il. si9 of the se"en Central American countries. &n contrast to +ussia's politically char ed push into the re ion 0 which in"ol"es sellin arms and challen in GS influence 0 .pdfP Latin America is also relevant for China’s efforts to re nite .ei/ingMs foc s is on agric lt re2 ra# materials and mar!ets for its exports..Sino0Batin American +elations. the only country in South America which reco ni. ?he economic slowdown is . Currently. Bucia and Saint Cincent and the 8renadines#.t . Faiti. )efore flyin to a rapturous reception in Cu)a.ai#an #ith the motherland. $A co ntries have 0diplomatic relations1 #ith . 6 . ?he 6eople1s +epu)lic of China has esta)lished diplomatic relations with -D= countries around the world. Saint (itts and 'e"is.Y Fu told 6eru's %l Comercio newspaper.ai#an% As a reward. ?he 8uardian (Bondon# 0 Final %dition.an!2 a signal that it #ants to -e a long-term pla"er in the region% As ChinaMs clo t gro#s2 that of the US d#indles. ?his wee* he will also )e one of the stars at a 6acific rim summit of . C -aMs state ne#s agenc" reported that ' signed almost a do+en agreements #ith C -a. ?hey are 6ara uay. . ChinaMs trade #ith Latin America has risen tenfold to Q18$-n CZEP-nG2 and it has toppled the US as Chile's main tradin partner since . :y then. and Z "e Cari))ean island nations (the Mominican +epu)lic. :ut the a)o"e0 mentioned -. China last month invested QAF8m in the .wilsoncenter.4)n steel mill with help from the :an* of China. China has #ooed several Latin America states a#a" from its rival2 ..nations in 6eru. Be9is.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.nter-American Development . Fu launched free trade tal*s on a "isit to Costa +ica. with .o resolve the .. and hurt the feelin s of the Chinese people.ai#an independence cannot -e tolerated. with utmost sincerity and reat effort. includin plans to up rade infrastructure and )uy su ar and nic*el. includin -. China has also s n! -illions into oil exploration in %cuador.. was pu)lished in $arch .ei/ingMs gro#ing economic clo t in the region.>>>0seat stadium and modernisin an oil refinery. Costa +ica is to recei"e a .ations. is leadin scores of Chinese )usiness people on a sweep throu h Batin America to reinforce .)n deal to e9tract Sm tonnes of copper from a sin le 6eru"ian pea*. . . &n a sym)olic step. Fis )oo* on Fu o ChU"e.ei/ing is #illing to achieve this re niBcation peacef ll".ai#an issue is one of the most important tas!s for the Chinese people. ministers.4>>m soft loan. http://www.>>>. &n :ra. Latin American co ntries !eep a -lind e"e to this fact .. help with )uildin a 4>. :ei@in 's dele ation will ha"e rown to D>> people. s)ha P ChinaMs president. )elittle themsel"es )y *eepin ties with a pro"ince of a so"erei n nation. . %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America. China hopes to sign a free trade deal this wee* with 6eru to o)tain )etter access to its copper and iron deposits.ai#an .HD>)n in trade last year. ?hey i nore the resolutions passed )y the Gnited 'ations on the ?aiwan issue.es ?aiwan. which is to open a )ranch there ne9t year.>-4. St. and 1$ of them are fo nd in Latin America.ai#an +ory Carroll is currently the 8uardian1s GS west coast correspondent.>>S.

ei/ing% ChinaMs primar" ) interest in the region appears to -e to gain greater access to ) needed reso rces--s ch as vario s ores2 so"-eans2 copper2 iron ) and steel2 and oil--thro gh increased trade and investment% .N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) .>N 4<L..S.htm# P2 JC%+C&%<5 China's rowin interest in Batin America and the Cari))ean 5 is a fairly new phenomenon that has de"eloped o"er the past 5 se"eral years.SA 5U3?<&S?.C'A3D >% LU>A32 .N2 5ar"land J<'NN= .<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .ai#an7m ltiple co ntries prove C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55.5 &E.N S<U.C'2 <hio) .llinois L.N L% CA3D.2 So th Carolina ) . the G.A3AC? <.LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<.S.EE <N 6<3E. 4<&E3MM .ei/ingMs gro#ing role in the region ma" have longer-term ) implications for U%S% regional interests and infl ence Chinese Latin American infl ence s#itches co ntries diplomatic recognition of .N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) .SA t .he realit" is that to some degree the fate of Latin America has -een deco pled from the US.ENJA5.<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'.DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3.A3.A5A2 .A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .e9pected to hit Batin American e9ports to the GS. 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J. C<3?E32 .ai#an to shift ) their diplomatic recognition to China. ad"anta e of 5 eo raphical pro9imity means that the 6+C presence is li*ely to 5 remain dwarfed )y G. and are concerned that )oth their domestic industries 5 and their G. as well as remittances from Batino mi rants.DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3.<. <hile China's economic 5 lin*a es with Batin America ha"e rown.t ) is also li!el" that .N.<IE32 California .N<*.CA2) AS.E3.<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic 3.E3.C= AND ) [[S<6.. of the &nter0American Mialo ue thin*tan*.ai#an claims to independence C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55.ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E. althou h many Batin American countries welcome 5 Chinese in"estment.A3AC? <. C<3?E32 .S.5 De5.S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.<IE32 California .N<*... :e innin in April ..SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.2 *irginia J<'N .CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www.C'2 <hio) .>N 3ELA.S. some ha"e "iewed China as an economic 5 threat. trade with and in"estment in the re ion.. po.ennessee) .<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t 3.A5A2 ..A3A .C'A3D >% LU>A32 .LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<.EE <N 6<3E..A2 AND A63. told the Associated 6ress.>N 3ELA.S.ei/ingMs additional goal is to isolate ) .D *. 'e"ertheless.S.ai#an -" l ring the 1$ Latin American and Cari--ean nations ) still maintaining diplomatic relations #ith . o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. e9port mar*ets will )e o"erwhelmed )y Chinese 5 competition.>>.' A5E3.2 Alas!a) 3<.ennessee) .. YJr at least itMs not as tightl" ent#ined as it sed to -e%O China is sing economic lin!s #ith the main idea of removing ..with 6resident 7ian 5 Temin's -40day tour of Batin America.<...A3A .A3.E32 Lo isiana) J.ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E.NAMS 6<3E. 5 $oreo"er. 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*. O. a succession of senior 5 Chinese officials have visited Latin American co ntries to ) co rt regional governments2 #hile Latin American leaders also ) have -een fre: ent visitors in .llinois L. some anal"sts maintain that ) ..Y Maniel %ric*son.

5U3?<&S?.S.D *.htm# P2 FJ+%&8' ASS&S?A'C%5 ?he e9act le"el of China's forei n assistance to Batin 5 America and the Cari))ean is uncertain.5 &E.N L% CA3D.lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'..2 So th Carolina ) . far 5 )ehind assistance that China reportedly pro"ides to Asia and 5 Africa..N2 5ar"land J<'NN= .ENJA5.SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.>N 4<L.5 De5.ai#an%\FF\) 4artic larl" in the Cari--ean and Central America2 China ) has sed assistance in recent "ears as part of its chec!-oo! ) diplomac" to entice co ntries in the region to s#itch their ) diplomatic recognition from .C= AND ) [[S<6.N S<U.CA2) AS.ai#an2 #hile a n m-er of co ntries ) in the region have -een adept at pla"ing the t#o co ntries ) against each other in order to maximi+e financial -enefits% As ) noted a-ove2 Chinese assistance to Dominica and >renada #as ) instr mental in those co ntries deciding to s#itch diplomatic ) recognition% Costa 3ica #as also r mored to have -een offered ) s -stantial assistance2 altho gh Costa 3ican officials maintain ) the prospect of increase trade and investment #as the primar" ) rationale for the s#itch% .2 *irginia J<'N .S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.iH/i Aid to the region appears to foc s on -ilateral ) assistance rather than thro gh regional or m ltilateral ) instit tions2 #ith the o-/ectives of strengthening diplomatic ) relations and isolating .NAMS 6<3E. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. 4<&E3MM .A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www.E32 Lo isiana) J.A2 AND A63.' A5E3. 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J.E3.N. 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*.2 Alas!a) 3<. )ut reportedly the 5 re ion recei"es a)out ->[ of China's forei n aid worldwide. po..E3.

?CS Maily.ai#an.com/tcs!daily/.n tr th2 .Y So nding as tho gh he had ta!en emergenc" tal!ing points from .ai#anMs infl ence among these "o ng democracies #ith its o#n%O .Ext – Empirics Chinese infl ence in Latin America is !e" to eliminate .ai#an is : ite genero s for a small nation2 .ei/ing2 Arias gr m-led2 OConsidering the fe# friends the" have2 the" donMt treat them ver" #ell%O Arias contin ed2 O&itho t a do -t2 #e #ill get more help from China%O) . Costa 3ica ended nearl" sixt" "ears of diplomatic relations #ith .html# &n 7une. http://www.ai#an in order to esta-lish diplomatic relations #ith China% Not onl" a victor" in . A . S/-D/>S.>>H Ferita e Foundation report warned that YChina has la nched a ma/or diplomatic offensive in Central America and the Cari--ean to stamp o t .ai#anMs independence2 the Costa 3ican s#itch is f rther evidence of ChinaMs gro#ing infl ence in Latin America7a gro#ing threat to democrac" and to U%S% interests%) Anno ncing the diplomatic s#itch2 Costa 3ican president <scar Arias cited a desire to strengthen commercial ties and Oattract investmentO from China. Arias then than*ed ?aiwan for its Ysolidarity and co0operationY o"er the last si9ty years.>>S/>S/the0threat0from0sino0 america.ideasinactiont".ai#an’s claims to independence7Costa 3ica proves ?opel and ?ra se 8@ (Ma"e (opel is +esearch Mirector and $i*e (rause is a Senior Fellow at the &ndependence &nstitute.t a nation #ith a pop lation of $1 million canMt offer the same economic incentives as a nation #ith a pop lation of 1%A -illion and the #orldMs second-largest econom"%) China insists that the price of trade relations is the severance of diplomatic relations #ith independent . Arias denounced ?aiwan for )ein Ystin y.he report o-served that China has -een Otranslating its economic s ccess -and its search for reso rces to f el its economic gro#th 7into greater infl ence in Latin America and the Cari--ean .ai#anMs diplomatic legitimac" in the region and s pplant . ?he ?hreat From Sino0America.Y 5 :ut the ne9t day. notin that ?aiwan has )een Y"ery enerous.ei/ingMs efforts to smother .

the <ashin ton ?imes. &n the future. http://www.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal. ?o this point. China has -een caref l to avoid -eing dragged into Cene.S. Shannon noted. especially nic*el..imes. in the co rse of proc ring the reso rces it needs to sustain its economic rowth2 it can also chip a#a" at some of the diplomatic s pport for . China would consider it an added )onus if. s)ha P &n the 6enta on's . a country that the Gnited States recently )anned arm sales to .he" tell s that the" are not interested in political or militar" advent res.uela that they don't want it playin the China card.>>S. 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e.t cementing the relationship no# is ChinaMs need for ra# materials . Shannon 7r.ai#an to compete #ith the 43C in Latin America.wilsoncenter.pdfP China’s gro#ing involvement co ld have serio s political and military implications.uela. H04>0$88E N“China in the <est”.Y $r. d e to China’s gro#ing economic might and soft po#er2 as well as the chan in dynamics of Batin American domestic politics 2 it might -ecome increasingl" difBc lt for .he &ashington . policy toward Cene. Such transactions would undermine G. 6A-D. . .ai#an2 .Y said ?homas A. China ses an a.uelan 6resident Fu o Chave+Ms ver-al -arrage against the United States.ai#an in a region #here several co ntries recogni+e the a tonom" of the island% &ith C -a2 China shares a general ideological and revol tionar" !inship2 . the 4entagon notes with concern in addition to the a ressi"e )uildup. )ut the penta on report raises the Luestion of Ywhether or not arms sales are used to facilitate accessY to ener y resources in Cene. released last wee*. with a narrow0minded mercantilist dri"e.ai#an. increasin ly menacin posture toward ?aiwan and a continued lac* of transparency that the 43CMs dealings #ith *ene+ ela2 C -a and several African nations are O nderc tting international efforts to infl ence those states%O China is doin in Batin America what it is doin in Africa and the $iddle %ast: p rs ing ra# materials and nat ral reso rces2 partic larl" energ" reso rces.>>D report to Con ress on China's military power.ai#an competition Li 8@ NFe Bi. ?he Chinese Yha"e a way to ma*e it clear to Cene. At present. %ditorials.uela.A$( Economic . J"er the lon run.nfl ence Not ?e" Economic infl ence !e" – prevents .ndant trade relationship #ith Latin American co ntries to s ppress . Y. :oston %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America.n *ene+ ela2 the 43CMs interests center aro nd oil and gas reserves. pressing co ntries to fall in line regarding its top forei n policy priority: its claims over . assistant secretary of state for <estern Femisphere affairs.t China #ill #ithdra# if American infl ence is flexed . China #ill contin e leveraging its economic clo t in the re ion to s pport its political preferences. Be9is. durin a recent meetin with editors and reporters at ?he <ashin ton ?imes. the most important dimension in the relations )etween China and Batin America is no dou)t economic .

after the State Mepartment desi nated it as not fully cooperatin with efforts a ainst terrorism. .

6rom a practical perspective2 China seems li!e a great deal% Chinese lenders are much more lenient in their standards. http://www.4S)n in low interest loans as a form of economic assistence O outnum)erin contri)utions from the <orld :an*. these loans are e9tremely concetrated in a handful of countries and sectors. a scholar on Sino0Batin American relations pointed out. a more diverse clientel of trading partners and a si nificant amount of e9tra capital.ai#an%1 &ndeed.ai#an in ever" corner of the #orld2 especiall" in Central America and the Cari--ean2 the stronghold of .. Fowe"er. +esearch Associate at the Council on Femispheric Affairs. -. many lament the practices of Chinese state corporations for )uyin up land.fairo)ser"er. Bi*ewise. providing Latin American states #ith the immediate captial necessar" to develop their infrastr ct re . raillines. the &nter0American .il. =>[ of all forei n direct in"estment (FM&# was directed toward the e9tracti"e industries. Cene. twel"e of the twenty0three countries that still reco ni. Ar entina and %cuador.com/4D>theme/china0comes0latin0americaP China has -ro ght cheaper imports. China has mastered the use of aid and in"estment to facilitate resource e9ploitation. and the GS &mport0%9port :an* com)ined. %ssentially. and the former Batin America %ditor at Fair J)ser"er../H/-. $ore than =>[ went to Me"elopment :an*.ei/ing is determined to contain . China Comes to Batin America. Miplomatically. &n . in its ongoing rivalr" #ith .uela. and most were in"ested in impro"ements in minin and transportation infrastructure. “. and irri ation systems in these co ntries. :ra. As Fe Bi. Fowe"er.ai#an.n exchange for resource consesions from Latin America2 the Chinese have financed new hi hways. reLuirin e9clusi"e access to certain resources in e9chan e for loan interest loans. China has -een less concerned with underminin the influence of the Gnited States in Batin America and more foc sed on gaining recognition as the tr e China.e ?aiwan as the le itimate o"ernment of China are located in Central America and the Cari))ean. China ranted Batin American countries .>-> alone.A$( =o . payin )elow industry wa es and deepenin Batin America1s dependence on the e9port of natural resources.ai#an Economic po#er is -eing Cohen 1$ N?re"or.solation Evidence is <ld sed to isolate . .

policy of this intensif"ing competition in their own )ac*yard. the extent to #hich .S.>>S.ei/ing rigoro sl" promotes its 0<ne China1 polic". a fierce contest for diplomatic recognition and political infl ence is -eing fo ght -et#een .ai#an diplomatically.>>D.ei/ing’s foreign polic" is shaped -" its desire to isolate . 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue.ai#anese government is a prere: isite for cond cting formal diplomatic relations with the 6+CIin effect forcing other governments to choose -et#een . Currently there are only . officials in &ashington have yet to fully consider the possi)le implications for G. Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond.pdfP &hile increasing economic and political ties -et#een China and Latin America have attracted si nificant attention from G. http://ww. and the :attle for Batin America.thedialo ue. mainl" in Central America and the Cari))ean. #hich means that non-recognition of the . .Althou h each of the -4 .or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.H countries in the world that officially reco ni.A$( Latin America Not ?e" Latin America is the !e" -attlegro nd for diplomatic recognition Eri!son and Chen 8@ NManiel 6. ?aiwan. Eet.ai#an and the 43C.S.ei/ing and . &n addition to its campai n of military intimidation. $eanwhile. Economic clo t is the !e" to isolation – Latin America is critical Eri!son and Chen 8@ NManiel 6. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of .pdfP . ?aiwan is Femisphere. http://ww. China. and its possi)le repercussions for G. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue. ?aiwan.>>D.. . policyma*ers in the past few years. . have -ecome ensnared in the cross-strait disp te% . and the :attle for Batin America. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G. China.S.S.ai#an in fa"or of cementin diplomatic ties with China.S.thedialo ue.. national interests.he strategicall" significant 0s#ing states1 among them face gro#ing press res to a-andon their lon standin relationships #ith .ai#an internationall" is often overloo!ed. in some of the most remote corners of the world.n partic lar2 Latin America has emerged as the cr cial -attlegro nd #here a do+en str ggling nations. . ?oday.>>S.#. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G.#.ei/ing has p rs ed a s stained polic" of isolating . most often -" promising large s ms of aid to the rapidl" d#indling ran!s of the latter’s allies. this cr cial dimension of Chinese foreign polic" is indispensa-le to a f ll nderstanding of China’s rising infl ence in the lo)al system.e ?aiwan2 more than half of these are located in the <estern Latin American co ntries involved in this geopolitical chess match ha"e little indi"idual clout. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of . to ether they ma!e p the most significant gro p of states ca ght in the cross-strait t g-of-#ar.aipei . Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond.>(..>(.

&n 'o"em)er . 'icara ua.ed conti uous )loc that includes 8uatemala. which )ac*ed 8uatemalaIan ally of ?aiwanIfor the "acant seat. 'ot coincidentally.reco ni. Fonduras. Se"eral of these countries sent troops to &raL as part of the G.. :eli.uela to assume the post. Costa +ica. and the Gnited States.0led coalition.. and they ha"e dutifully partnered with <ashin ton in efforts to contain re ional ad"ersaries such as Cu)a1s Fidel Castro and Cene. )rea*in a len thy impasse )etween ChU"e. and 6anama. %l Sal"ador.>>D. a pri. who campai ned a ressi"ely for Cene.ed )y all se"en nations of the Central American isthmus. this roup also represents the stron est )ulwar* of support for the Gnited States in the <estern Femisphere.uela1s Fu o ChU"e.S. 6anama won a two0year term as the Batin American representati"e on the Gnited 'ations Security Council.e. .

e that Latin America’s em-race of ChinaIto the e9tent that this has actually occurredIis intimatel" lin!ed to its perception of neglect and disinterest from the United States .or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.t 4erception of U%S% a-andonment !e" – allo#s for Chinese fill in and . China is in many ways more politicall" attractive than either the United States or the %uropean Gnion.pdfP For their part2 Latin Americans are intrig ed -" the idea of China as a potential partner for trade and investment.nfl ence Doesn’t Affect . most analysts reco ni. its partners in the South American Common $ar*et ($ercosur#. :ut e"en as China see*s to reassure the Gnited States that its . which do not en@oy :ra.>>D.#.ai#an of its democratic allies in the &estern 'emisphere.thedialo ue.il. which places certain constraints on mem)er states1 )ilateral forei n policy prero ati"es.-. ?aiwan.ei/ing has -eg n enlisting regional po#ers li!e 5exico to aid its effort to #oo Central American diplomats. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of . :ra. and the :attle for Batin America. Mespite its a"owals to <ashin ton. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center.>>S.>(. 6ressure is also interests in South America are purely economic. China appears to -e sing its economic might as a means to achieve the patently political o-/ective of stripping . )ein placed on 6ara uay )y Ar entina. 'e"ertheless. and Chile.il1s or Ar entina1s a)undance in e9port commodities and are inclined to "iew the competition posed )y the endless supply of cheap Chinese la)or as a menace to their nascent manufacturin sectors. China.. . especially for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasin ly anti0American and s*eptical of <estern intentions. policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G. Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond. http://ww.A$( U%S% . As a rising s perpo#er without a colonial or “imperialist” history in the <estern Femisphere. .S.ai#an isolation Eri!son and Chen 8@ NManiel 6. 'er"ousness a)out China1s rise runs deeper amon the smaller economies such as those of Central America.

and the" are only too eager to -oth see! o t ne# partners and maximi+e the economic gains from e9istin relationships.A$( Side &ith ..>N 4<L.htm# P2 Anal"sis) 6or no#2 it appears that China and .C= AND ) [[S<6. http://ww. .llinois L.E3.2 Alas!a) 3<.e ?aiwan.C'A3D >% LU>A32 .A2 AND A63.N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) . the Cari))ean 5 nation of the Mominican +epu)lic.>(.A3AC? <.A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .ilt as -"-prod cts of the cross-strait competition . 4<&E3MM . Some o)ser"ers 5 maintain that *ey countries to watch include the Central 5 American countries of 'icara ua and 6anama.ai#an.ai#an is not necessarily n#elcome for Central America and the Cari--ean% &ndeed.<NS ) J<SE4' 3% . diplomatic relations with one partner ? does not preclude sustained economic trade with the other2 many nations that reco ni.E3.DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3.S.ennessee) . policy at the &nter0American Mialo ue.. She was an intern at the &nter0 American Mialo ue durin the summer of . 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J.ENJA5.pdfP his intensif"ing attention from China and .ai#an la nched an initiative in the region in ) order to co nter ChinaMs attempts to tempt additional co ntries ) to s#itch sides that appears to have -een s ccessf l in the ) short term% . and the re"erse is also true. $oreo"er.' A5E3.A3A .5 De5.thedialo ue. :oth China and .SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.2 *irginia J<'N .SA 5U3?<&S?. 7anice Chen is a @oint0de ree candidate at ?he Fletcher School of Baw and Miplomacy and 8eor etown Gni"ersity Baw Center.EE <N 6<3E.ai#an means it #ill s#a" co ntries to not recogni+e .ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E.#.or /6u)licationFiles/%ri*son0Chen0 -[.<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t 3.N<*.<.N S<U.A3.A5A2 .n the ) aftermath of Costa 3icaMs J ne $88@ decision to s#itch ) diplomatic partners2 Chinese officials predicted a domino ) effect in #hich other co ntries #o ld s#itch their recognition ) to China2 .t .CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www.ai#an #ill contin e to ) -attle for diplomatic recognition2 sing the prospect of ) increased aid2 trade2 and investment to s#a" the decisions of ) the remaining do+en nations recogni+ing .LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<..C'2 <hio) . Fe is coeditor of ?ransformin Socialist %conomies: Bessons for Cu)a and :eyond. po.N.ai#an as an independent nation in the s: o C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55. and the :attle for Batin America.>>D. the sole South 5 American nation that continues to reco ni. 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*. %ri*son is Senior Associate for G.nevita-l" Co ntries #ill see! to maximi+e economic gains – #hoever has the most mone" #ins Eri!son and Chen 8@ NManiel 6..E32 Lo isiana) J. C<3?E32 .NAMS 6<3E.2 So th Carolina ) . ?aiwan.CA2) AS. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. China.N2 5ar"land J<'NN= .<IE32 California ..i4>i .>>S.>N 3ELA.S.lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'.e China still do )usiness with ?aiwan. most of these co ntries are str ggling to achieve successful integration into the glo-al econom"..D *.. and 6ara uay.5 &E.N L% CA3D.S.S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. Chinese economic advantage over ..ai#an have sho#n interest in f nding infrastructure pro/ects that ha"e fallen out of fa"or amon <estern donors.ai#an .. and the Latin American landscape is -ecoming host to an archipelago of -ridges2 roads2 t nnels2 and stadi ms .

ai#anMs remaining 1$ allies in Latin America and the Cari--ean ) to s#itch diplomatic sides% .Nevertheless2 over the long r n2 ChinaMs sheer ) economic si+e and po#er -odes #ell for its a-ilit" to entice ) .

com/. ?he warnin from :ei@in came as ?aiwan prepares to elect a new leader in &n unusually stron lan ua e.f the . April 3. )ut rarely so dramatically. said c r-ing an" efforts the island ma!es to#ard independence is the ltimate goal of the mainland2 #hich #ill go to #ar if necessar"% Y.ai#an out to protest ChinaMs most recent military white paper also alarmed American policy ma*ers )ecause it mentioned the Gnited States )y name for the first time since -==3. runnin for office a ain.ai#an mo"es too far to#ard independence 00 a mo"e that )rou ht hundreds of thousands of people in . $888.ndependence ca ses #ar C.c)snews. ?he two sides split amid ci"il war in -=/=. <ashin ton said.ai#an if it formall" declares independence. a top mainland official who deals with the ?aiwan issue. also tempered his remar*s )y addin that Ythe people of ?aiwan are our )rothers and sisters.S. &n $arch. . .0H3SH33. 6repared ?estimony )efore the Senate Finance Committee.ai#an a thorities coll de #ith all splittist forces to openl" engage in proindependence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle2 the se of force ma" -ecome navoida-le . http://www.in a military attac* if top leaders in :ei@in )elie"e . B'.4.>>H# ?he rowin friction )etween 7apan and China2 fueled )y risin nationalism in )oth countries. . China: ?aiwan &ndependence \ <ar.ai#an independence triggers conflict and Chinese nationalism +o)ert ?agan.ai#an in remar*s pu)lished and threatened that Othe use of force may )ecome una"oida)leY if the islandMs leaders p rs e independence. S eparatists #ill Opa" a high cost if the" thin! #e #ill not se force2Y said <an . $arch . an %n lish0lan ua e newspaper with a wide forei n audience.'' China2 meanwhile. Y. Su)@ect: “?rade with China and &ts &mplications for G.Y <an was Luoted as sayin in China Maily. <an Tai9i.Ext – . and :ei@in insists that ?aiwan )elon s to China and must accept e"entual unification.ens "otin on ?aiwanese independence. who was spea*in at a seminar on cross0straits relations.ai#an independence means #ar%O <an . ?he $ainland Affairs Council in ?aipei was silent hours after <an 's remar*s were pu)lished I a rare mo"e from a normally responsi"e o"ernment. <ednesday $arch. has won o"er more "oters since he came up with plans for a new constitution and a law on referendums that could concei"a)ly lead to citi.” F%M%+AB '%<S S%+C&C%. is @ust one of the China passed a contro"ersial new MMantisecessionMM law authori. Forei n 6olicy.'' one American intelli ence analyst in political de"elopments addin to tensions in %ast Asia. <e are not willin to meet at the )attle round.htmlP China ratcheted p the rhetoric against .ndependence ]&ar Ca ses #ar =ardle" F (7im Eardley and ?hom Shan*er (Staff <riters O 7im reported from Than@ian and ?hom reported from <ashin ton. @ust )ased on the rhetoric o"er the past si9 months to a year . accused the Gnited States and 7apan of meddlin in a domestic Chinese matter when <ashin ton and ?o*yo recently issued a @oint security statement that listed peace in .>.!-D.” ?he 'ew Eor* ?imes. 6resident Chen Shui0)ian. &t stated that the American presence in the re ion ''complicated security factors.S 8H NC:S 'ews. . "ice minister of the ?aiwan Affairs Jffice of China's Ca)inet. .'' ''?he potential for a miscalc lation or an incident here has actually increased./--/>=.->>0.Y ?he Chinese Ca)inet's ?aiwan Affairs Jffice in :ei@in had no immediate comment on <ednesday.ai#an as a ''common strate ic o)@ecti"e.# ”Chinese 'a"y :uildup 8i"es 6enta on 'ew <orries. : ei/ing has long threatened the se of force against .

$any ordinary Chinese seem to ha"e )een enuinely stirred up )y anti0American or anti07apanese campai ns in the Chinese media. and especially on specific issues li*e ?aiwan. howe"er.Y and there are Yfew issues left that do not tri er de)ate and e9acer)ate tensions )etween the state and society. trends which )e an to )e "isi)le in -=3=. $uch of the appeal to nationalism has )een a necessary antidote to the dan erous ideolo ical "acuum created )y economic reform. if necessary.Y (enneth Bie)erthal points out. ?he 6enta on analysis descri)es an increased le"el of discussion in China's military and political ran*s a)out the Ystrate ic window of opportunityY opened in %ast Asia with the G. if ?aiwan is to )ecome and remain a fully so"erei n democracy. Gltimately. to repel any Chinese a ression. As domestic chan es ha"e Yundermined faith in communism. <ith China's rise as a military power loomin o"er the Asian06acific.ai#an independence riles the Dragon to attac!2 dra#s in the US . ?hey ha"e appealed to a fer"ent Chinese nationalism.Y Clearly. )ased on resentment at their past century of su)@u ation at the hands of the <est and on a con"iction that their new economic and military power entitles them to a )i er place on the world sta e. ?he Gnited States has )een reluctant to impress that point upon ?aipei. Af hanistan.he Ne# Atlantis $88K ('AA. ?aiwan's commitment to its own defense has )een inadeLuate and unfocused. . at least up to a point. p . &n response to )oth internal and e9ternal pressures. the window of opportunity for democracy in %ast Asia is shrin*in fast. China's leaders ha"e turned to nationalism Yto ti hten discipline and maintain support . Ycontinuin economic reforms and e9posure of the Chinese people to <estern ideas and international news (ha"e# cut e"er more deeply into CC6 le itimacy. and. As ?homas Christensen reports. for the foreseea)le future. with the war on terrorism. :ei@in deli"ered one of its most explicit threats so far to ?aipei's pro0independence leaders: %ither a)andon your Ydan erous l rch to#ard independenceY and su)mit to Chinese so"erei nty. )ut also )ecause of its strate ic reliance on the G. Eet in all sectors of politically aware Chinese society a consensus remains on the le itimacy of usin force.Y And there are si ns that this strate y wor*s. too. :ut the time has come for a serious consideration of the conseLuences and potential perils of American Ystrate ic am)i uityY in the ?aiwan Strait. and which ha"e persisted until the present.Y . does the dan er that :ei@in will ma*e a horri-le miscalc lation of America's commitment and capa)ility to defend its interests and the security of %ast Asia. it will ha"e to acLuire the means to defend itself. ->S “?he Assassin1s $ace”# As China's military power rows. the Chinese dragon is crouchin in Ystrate ic am)i uityY no lon er . or the YChinese people will crush (your# schemes firmly and thorou hly at any cost. out of concern for upsettin the already fra ile military )alance in the re ion.&n fact. military's commitments in &raL.S. to pre"ent ?aiwan's independence. ?o date. in part )ecause of its fear of Chinese retri)ution. so. Summer. they ha"e resorted to a common tactic of o"ernments in such perilous times. and only modest in its efforts to arm ?aiwan. and :ei@in stiflin the "oices of dissent e"erywhere under its immediate control. ha"e su ested that the present crop of Chinese leaders are more than e"er inclined to resist what they re ard as <estern entrapment. And this past $ay.S.

'ew Eor*.ai#an side2 it *nows that the 6+C's attac* will open with de"astatin air attac*s . the ?aiwanese "iew is that if they can sur"i"e the initial attac*. the deployment of small num)ers of special operations troops supported )y amphi)ious landin forces. and a na"al )loc*ade that will ena)le it to impose its will in an e9tremely short timeframe and with minimal losses.ai#an is #illing to ris! Chinese assa lt – declaring independence ca ses massive air stri!es =ang $88K NAndrew 'ien0M.ai#an independence will reLuire massi"e air stri*es. the ad"anta e will shift to them.>>/. and Af hanistan. .ai#an #on’t ris! it . the 6BA cannot launch amphi)ious landin operations and sustain a round war on the island of ?aiwan. p .n the 43CMs calc lation2 a war a ainst . <hereas on the . without air superiority and effecti"e control of the sea. . ?herefore. -D=0-S>P . &ts planners )elie"e that it could rely on ad"anced technolo y.A$( .u. ?he 6+C has learned lessons of the recent GS campai ns in (uwait. and an effecti"e )loc*ade to achie"e a satisfactory outcome. teacher at the 'ational Sun Eat0sen Gni"ersity. “?he Alternati"es to 6eace: <ar Scenarios”. (oso"o. :osnia. From the ?aiwanese point of "iew. 6eace and Security Across the ?aiwan Strait. )ut they are confident that they can sur"i"e such attac*s and that the 6+C will as a result hesitate to launch a hi h0intensity conflict on the round. special forces operations. 6al ra"e $acmillian 6u)lishin .

and political landscape. ?hey focus on resistin a ression. when.ation efforts. the 6arty has deployed military force more often a ainst domestic opposition than a ainst e9ternal a ression. throu hout the 6+C1s history. sta)le.pdf &n contrast to the security strate ies of compara)le powers. for whate"er reason. a"ertin the su)"ersion of the o"ernin political system and leadership. stoppin separatist mo"ements.dtic.Vdoc\8et?+Moc. or human ri hts.: Meterrence . Au ust .” &nstitute for Mefense Analysis. stron . &n the third. Monken 2003 China1s national security strate y has a nota)ly internal focus. ?he strate y does not promote a Chinese "ision for world de"elopment.e China1s economic. the ?aiwan Luestion is closel" associated #ith China’s most f ndamental national o-/ectives2 and has the potential to sha!e the fo ndation of the Comm nist regime% . ?hrou h its 6arty doctrine and )olster support for the political leadership. the 6arty may ha"e ine9trica)ly lin*ed its fate with that of ?aiwan. &n fact. &n sum.-4 &n fact. the outcome of a ?aiwan confrontation could desta)ili. China1s o)@ecti"es are reacti"e in nature.-. and will surely play a si nificant role in any 6+C deterrence eLuation. dri"e 6+C policy. any of the nation1s leaders responsi)le for ?aiwan1s loss are li*ely to )e cast as lishi .Deterrence fails Cir inia . nationally unified state. &nstead. ?his draws the CC61s a)ility to handle a ?aiwan crisis into Luestion. 6arty has used to esta)lish its le itimacy and accrue political capital: . ?he focus of this paper is not a discussion on deterrin China from initiatin military confrontation under any of these scenarios2 rather. and how China would use force to )rin ?aipei )ac* to the ne otiatin ta)le. First.uiren. &t now loo*s to nationalism to confer le itimacy on ?aiwan threatens CC6 re ime sur"i"al )ecause it em)odies those principles the Communist nationalism and nit" ?aiwan has )ecome such a principal sym)ol of Chinese nationalism and pride that its loss #o ld essentiall" constit te national h miliation. ?iananmen SLuare pro"ides a particularly poi nant e9ample of the premium that the 6+C places on the 6arty1s sur"i"a)ility )ecause it demonstrated that the CC6 will e"en use force a ainst its own people if it percei"es a threat to its power.-H Second. ?his concept is de"eloped fully later in this paper. and its emphasis on protectin the “socialist system” is a conspicuous one. China is far more fle9i)le on issues such as weapons proliferation and nuclear testin than it is on issues such as ?aiwan issues that threaten internal o"ernance comprise the 6+C national defense policy1s chief o)@ecti"es. and the fallout could feasi)ly threaten CC6 re ime security . &n a country that )oasts a history of popular uprisin and sudden re"olution spurred )y domestic insta)ility. ?he 6+C actions at the ne otiatin doctrine of a risin . "irtually immo"a)le. nationalist rhetoric and underpinnin s. .mil/c i0)in/8et?+MocRAM\AMA/-3/S/VBocation\G. ?here seems little Luestion )ut that :ei@in would not )e deterred from the use of force in the first two circumstances. or loo* to wield reat e9ternal.-.his indicates that deterring China #ill indeed -e diffic lt2 and flat o t impossi-le in certain cases. &MA Analyst. it is on such matters that China1s leadership has pro"en perception can. and has since em)raced nationalist and unifyin rhetoric in order to dri"e China1s moderni. it is on the role of deterrence once a conflict has )e un.-/ ?his record indicates the CC61s ris* ?his pattern carries potentially dan erous ramifications for a ?aiwan crisis scenario for two primary reasons. “China1s 'ew Beadership and a ?aiwan Confrontation: &mplications for Meterrence. China1s Mefense <hite 6aper states that China will use force a ainst ?aiwan under any of three conditions: formal declaration of independence )y ?aipei2 acLuisition of nuclear weapons )y ?aiwan2 or a failure to return to the ne otiatin ta)le sooner or later. and worried a)out its a)ility to sustain itself. Coincidentally. http://www.?his is not the defense these are ar ua)ly the o)@ecti"es of a wea*. ?he 6arty1s socialist mantra of the past no lon er applies to the current reality. and does. a ?aiwanese )id for independence and su)seLuent conflict could pro"o*e dramatic uphea"al. or “the people condemned )y history”-D O not a le acy the CC6 is an9ious to secure. and opposin e9pansion. As a result. deterrence could well )e e9pected to play a role in determinin if. &n the wa*e of ?iananmen SLuare and amidst the push for mar*et reform. ?his da nting prospect leaves the leadership little room to mane ver.A. social. unsta)le re ime that is focused on its own permanence.his #ill escalate. lo)al influence. the CC6 lost its ideolo ical footin . ?his indicates that those ta)le reflect this concern as well.

A$( .nterdependence Chec!s .

he who holds the un holds the power. 7ian Temin controls the military and. the CC6 is stru lin to respond to calls for reater openness. . which has come to represent the most fundamental of China1s national interests (territorial inte rity. in"estment. as the o"ernment tries to implement the approach to any ?aiwan confrontation in the hopes of preser"in internal unity. the leadership will most li*ely ta*e a harder0line the decision to escalate will not )e the preferred choice. is em)lematic of the "ery principles for which the Communist 6arty purportedly stands. already s*eptical of the CC6 and its moti"es. ?aiwan. Jut oin CC6 Chairman and 6+C 6resident 7ian Temin retained his chairmanship of the Central $ilitary Commission (C$C# and essentially created multiple power centers within the 6+C leadership.t2 sho ld conflict arise2 the CC4 leadership #ill pose a significant deterrence pro-lem – its ver" s rvival is at sta!e in such a scenario and the loss of ?aiwan would li*ewise si nify the loss of the re ime1s rip on power.Vdoc\8et?+Moc. state so"erei nty.S.ation and economic rowth to secure lon 0term domestic sta)ility and to demonstrate the Communist 6arty1s a)ility to pro"ide for the Chinese people O a critical underta*in if the CC6 is oin to perpetuate its power. defense strategists can conse: entl" anticipate the follo#ing( the 43C #ill avoid initial confrontation at all costs . <ith these primary dri"ers in mind. ?heir top priority is facilitatin the 6+C1s moderni. ?hus. G.nterdependence doesn’t chec! 5on!en2 $88A Cir inia $on*en. pra matic. or compromise for fear of an economic fallo t that could pro"e eLually detrimental to the re ime1s lon e"ity. ConseLuently.ed head of the 6arty and the state. is not li*ely to tolerate such failure% S0 . ?hus reform needed to facilitate this same economic rowth strate y. the analysis concludes that future economic de"elopment and prosperity. should a ?aiwan crisis arise in the a)sence of a clearly delineated chain of command or formally reco ni. Au ust . http://www. &MA Analyst. Furthermore. ConseLuently.dtic. transparency. the transition from a Communist.he CC4 has come to rel" heavil" on the Chinese people’s nationalist sensi-ilities to promote its own a enda and mas* its ideolo ical contradictions as it tries to reconcile an o)solete Communist doctrine and correspondin political system with its desire to de"elop a mar*et economy.ed principal decision0ma*in authority. and stature.” &nstitute for Mefense Analysis. ?he rise of the new CC6 leadership also has )rou ht potential fra mentation and power stru le to the political esta)lishment.pdf the 6+C leadership feels that the s rvival of the CC4 regime in fact #o ld hang in the -alance of a .. which would undermine the 6+C1s forei n trade. social.ai#an confrontation% . and economic arenas. Jn the political front.he p -lic. lar ely state0supported industrial comple9 to a mar*et0oriented economy has wrea*ed ha"oc on the 6+C1s socio0economic . ?he Fourth 8eneration leadership lar ely comprises a roup of youn . Similarly. ?herefore.>>4. would de)ilitate the CC61s de"elopment plan. “China1s 'ew Beadership and a ?aiwan Confrontation: &mplications for Meterrence. in the 6+C political tradition. the CC4 leadership finds itself in a precario s position( respond to China’s fervent nationalism and win reunification no matter the cost so as to potentially secure the 6arty1s sur"i"al. educated technocrats focused on China1s domestic economic de"elopment. 'e"ertheless. and reunification of the motherland#. Althou h Fu 7intao is the constitutionally reco ni. it would essentiall" delegitimi+e its self-proclaimed role as the 43C’s g arantor of national pride and prosperit"% . a ?aiwan confrontation . sta)ility.mil/c i0)in/8et?+MocRAM\AMA/-3/S/VBocation\G. should the CC6 lose ?aiwan. and reform to match those chan es )ein made in the economic arena. it faces fallout in the political.

to date. Senior &nternational 6olicy Analyst j +A'M. :ei@in 1s an er at what it saw as Chen Shui0)ian1s pro"ocati"e )eha"ior encoura ed a dan erous shift in the 6+C1s “red lines” for threatenin force a ainst ?aiwan. Nationalism will force Chinese aggression over Taiwan 7ames Manicom.ai#an crisis ma!es escalation inevita-le Shlapa!2 $88H Ma"id A. In a crisis over Taiwan. ad"ocates of reater independence fear that gro#ing economic ties #ill mean 0time is not on their side 2” and they may feel the need to push more pro"ocati"e measures when political circumstances i"e them the chance. in eneral. The first views the cross-Strait relationship as tense but stable.M +esearch Fellow in the Asian &nstitute at the Gni"ersity of ?oronto. :ut we )elie"e that. this article contends that appears to be ma'ing progress towards reunification. the emer in ?aiwanese national identit" raises the profo ndl" #orrisome prospect that if nification is dela"ed for too long2 the . Chinese leadership elites will be under pressure from three domestic sources that could inhibit their abilit to pursue a conciliator solution. and the percei"ed need to *eep Chen )o9ed in caused China to shift away from the four clear. is somewhat the 0tense sta-ilit"1 that characteri+ed the cross-strait confrontation prior to the mid0-==>s is sufferin from grad al erosion% ?he de)ate concernin so"erei nty o"er ?aiwan has e"ol"ed dramatically.pdf ?he factors descri)ed in this chapter present somethin of a mi9ed )a . et al. meanwhile.pdf This article illustrates how growing nationalist pressures in Chinese government and society could pressure governing elites into a demonstration of force in the Taiwan Strait in the near future. 6h.au/Article6MFs/"ol4no-$anicom.>>=/+A'M!$8333. 'otwithstandin the collapse of "oter unpredicta)le. in terms of the future sta)ility of the crossstrait relationship. the attracti"eness2 in a crisis2 of militar" options is li!el" to increase% &n ?aiwan. :ei@in sees Chen and his allies as patholo ical “en"elope0pushers” constantly loo*in for ways to promote the island1s independence.ation and flat ?aiwanese defense spendin ha"e transformed the )alance across the strait away from one that had lon fa"ored ?aiwan. Fe)ruary 2007.or . nearly all si nificant political parties in ?aiwan now accept the notion that any future arran ement with China must recei"e the separate appro"al of ?aiwan1s . In a military crisis is possible in the short term as a result of internal domestic pressures on the leadership. “A Auestion of :alance. &f :ei@in loses hope that economic and social maneu"ers can slow or re"erse forces on ?aiwan that run athwart of at least e"entual reunificaton. support for the M66. this dispute pits a :ei@in o"ernment that insists there is only one China of which ?aiwan is a part a ainst a ?aiwan that still retains many formal trappin s of )ein a Chinese state )ut increas0 in ly de"elops an independent national identity . :ei@in has had difficulty translatin this economic le"era e into meanin ful political results. remaining Third !eneration elites" and nationalist segments of the population. http://www.” +A'M. &n the heat of any future cross0strait crisis. relati"ely easyto0 follow “red lines” that it warned ?aiwan not to cross in the past. the second views war between the US and China in the Strait as inevitable in the long term.4 million "oters. Shlapa*.securitychallen es.A$( No NationalismDChina &ill . and their collecti"e impact. China has ra"itated toward more "a ue. . ?his am)i uity and improvisation co ld -ecome dangero s so rces of misperception d ring a crisis % ?he com)ination of more than a decade of 6+C military moderni. am)i uous “red areas” and it is more li*ely to define (or redefine# these situationally and reacti"ely durin periods of crisis. it is imperative that the $ourth %eneration&s Taiwan policy contrast. &nstead. )ut they co ld provide a -ac!drop for crisis if . In short.ei/ing concl des that long-term trends are t rning po#erf ll" against them% ?he rapidly rowin cross0strait economic relationship means that :ei@in can now inflict si nificant pain on ?aiwan if it so chooses. 8radual chan es alon these lines seem unli*ely to pro"ide the spar* for conflict.>>=. ?oday. . it challenges the two prevailing orthodox assessments of cross-Strait security. other than as a de"ice for si nalin its irritation with ?aipei.rand. http://www. “'ear0term &nsta)ility in the ?aiwan StraitR” Security Challen es. this shift in the percei"ed )alance of forces seems to remo"e an important impediment to Chinese use of force. :ut. In doing so.ai#anese people #ill -e n#illing to accept an" arrangement that su)sumes them within a “Chinese” state or confederation. These three sources are hardline elements of the !"#. It concludes with an examination of the policy implications for all actors in the Strait. For :ei@in .e Nice .or /pu)s/mono raphs/. Colume 4 'um)er -.

>>-. prior to the <orld ?rade Center )om)in and its aftermath.or /w )h/pa es/frontline/shows/china/inter"iews/lampton. http://www.>>>. . ?herefore. Mifferent Mreams: $ana in G.ai#an Strait% &n effect.htmlP if "o loo! aro nd the #orld toda" and as!ed #here in the world could t#o ma/or n clear po#ers come into conflict.ai#an going independent is a-sol tel" critical to the legitimac" of the Chinese comm nist regime . -=3=0. Chinese leaders -elieve that2 if the" were to let .p)s.China #ill go to #ar Lampton 81 NMa"id Bampton is director of China studies at 7ohns Fop*ins School of Ad"anced &nternational Studies.. & would ha"e said that the only pro)a)le place 00 and it is pro)a)ly still the onl" pro-a-le place 00 where two )i nuclear powers could come into conflict #o ld -e the .0China +elations.Frontline &nter"iew with Ma"id Bampton. they would pro)a)ly )e o"erthrown )y their own nationalistic people . and author of the recent )oo* Same :ed.ai#an go independent and not respond. the prevention of . even if the" !ne# the" #ere going to lose% Fow dan erous is the ?aiwan issueR . ..S.A$( China ?no#s it #o ld lose . & thin* the" #o ld -e #illing to engage in #hat #e might call Oself-defeating militar" advent resO in order to pre"ent that result.ai#an is critical to regime legitimac" .

policy is desi ned to reduce the control of ?aiwan durin the Chinese Ci"il <ar more than si9 decades a o.st@oe.>Bead[. Althou h it lost China still considers .ai#an2 mean#hile2 co ld f el a conventional and n clear arms race% %nhancements to G.us/ourpa es/auto/. .S. s)ha P ?he prospects for a"oidin intense military competition and war may )e ood.ai#an and red cing the United States’ a-ilit" to intervene. China has made clear that it #ill se force if . )ut on oin impro"ements in China1s 'e"ertheless. )ut rowth in China1s power may ne"ertheless reLuire some chan es in G.ei/ing to -ehave more -oldl" in f t re crises than it has in past ones% A U%S% attempt to preserve its a-ilit" to defend .ai#an declares independence2 and m ch of China’s conventional militar" . the iss e poses special dangers and challenges for the U%S%-Chinese relationship. Such dan ers ha"e )een around for decades. and unification remains a *ey political oal for :ei@in . a crisis co ld nfold in #hich the United States fo nd itself follo#ing events rather than leading them.>to[. pro)a)ility that ?aiwan will declare independence and to ma*e clear that the Gnited States will not come to ?aiwan1s aid if it does.ai#an co ld fairl" easil" escalate to n clear #ar2 -eca se each step along the #a" might #ell seem rational to the actors involved% Current G.>-. http://www. placin it in a different cate ory than 7apan or South (orea. &n addition to its impro"ed con"entional capa)ilities. ?his essay draws on his recent )oo* +ational ?heory of &nternational 6olitics.><ill[. offensi"e tar etin capa)ilities and strate ic )allistic missile defenses mi ht )e interpreted )y China as a si nal of mali n G.*-.in.ai#an and )ecause the Gnited States and China 00 whate"er they mi ht formally a ree to 00 ha"e such different attitudes re ardin the le itimacy of the status Luo./--/-.S. :ecause China places such high val e on .S. 6u)lished )y the Council on Forei n +elations.H/>/--0 >4>/[. forei n policy that <ashin ton will find disa reea)le 00 particularly re ardin ?aiwan. $arch/April $811 N“<ill China1s +ise Bead to <arR”. Forei n Affairs. the United States #o ld find itself nder press re to protect . military capa)ilities may ma*e :ei@in more willin to escalate a ?aiwan crisis. moti"es.>China!s[.S..ild p has -een dedicated to increasing its a-ilit" to coerce . China is moderni+ing its n clear forces to increase their a-ilit" to s rvive and retaliate follo#ing a large-scale U%S% attac!% Standard deterrence theor" holds that &ashington’s c rrent a-ilit" to destro" most or all of China’s n clear force enhances its )ar ainin position% China’s n clear moderni+ation might remove that chec! on Chinese action2 leading . leadin to further Chinese military efforts and a eneral poisonin of GS.><ar!./H4=H.0Chinese relations.ai#an crisis escalates to US-China N clear #ar – nothing chec!s this scenario Charles >laser is a 6rofessor of 6olitical Science and &nternational Affairs and Mirector of the &nstitute for Security and Conflict Studies at the %lliot School of &nternational Affairs at 8eor e <ashin ton Gni"ersity.Ext – N !e &ar A .pdf. A crisis over .ai#an against an" sort of attac!2 no matter ho# it originated .ai#an to -e part of its homeland.>+ise[. 8i"en the different interests and perceptions of the "arious parties and the limited control <ashin ton has o"er ?aipei1s )eha"ior.

$ay . durin 6remier Bi1s recent "isit to 8ermany. no.ai#an sho ld the" declare independence SC54 @D1P (South China $ornin 6ost.com N:ei@in P.ensions escalate #ith militar" drills2 China prepared to stri!e .com/news/china/article/-.he 4LA also has -oosted the fre: enc" of #ar games in the East China Sea and the So th China Sea2 incl ding naval exercises involving all three of its ma/or fleets ($in 6ao. Cui as*ed <ashin ton “not to lift up the )oulder that is 7apan. t anal"sts said the time-frame #as reasona-le2 given China’s contin ed militar" . http://fortunascorner.>-4/>D/.H2 China 'ews Ser"ice.he drill sim lates a s rprise attac! -" the Chinese in $81@2 follo#ed -" a large-scale invasion2 the ministr" said2 #itho t explaining #h" the scenario is -eing staged in that partic lar "ear% .” 7une . April S#. 5 3hetorical f sillades pale -eside hard-po#er pro/ection as . the new Chinese Am)assador to the G..=#. Jne month later. April S2 6eople1s Maily online.# Eet if the Gnited StatesIand other countries or )locs in the <estern alliance such as the %uropean GnionIwere unwillin to resol"e differences with China in a spirit of win0win reciprocity 2 .ei/ing is #ielding -oth the militar" and economic cards to f rther its diplomatic goals% <ne of Ii’s first missions upon )ecomin chairman of the Central $ilitary Commission last 'o"em)er #as to tell different 4LA nits 0to get read" to fight and to #in #ars1 (“Commander0in0Chief Wi 7inpin +aises the :ar on 6BA QCom)at +eadiness1.Ext – China &ill >o to &ar . the usually mild0mannered head of o"ernment surprised his host when he used usually stron lan ua e to casti ate %uropean “protectionists” who supported puniti"e tariffs a ainst China1s solar panels and telecom eLuipment.he nnamed co ntr" is most li!el" the United States . and particularly not to allow this )oulder to crush its own feet” (6eople1s Maily Jnline. .H#. “:ei@in 1s A ressi"e 'ew Forei n 6olicy V &mplications For ?he South China Sea..scmp. “Biftin a )oulder to crush one1s own feet” was a well0*nown sayin of Chairman $ao.ilding state-of-the-art #eapons2 Ii in!ed a QA%F -illion deal to . officials at the defence ministry said on $onday. .S.344/3/taiwan0military0drill0 sta es0china0attac*0scenario# . $oreo"er.” China :rief.ei/ing has the past six months demonstrated that it is not sh" a-o t sing to gh tactics at -oth the rhetorical and s -stantive levels% At the .he perception of US encroachment f els Chinese militarism Lam $81A (<illy.wordpress. $ay .. &t was the lar est Chinese purchase of +ussian hardware in a decade (China 'ews Ser"ice. Bi warned these protectionists would “undou)tedly o down the road of perdition” (Ca)le ?C news NFon (on P.o’ao >lo-al S mmit last April.ai#an started a comp terised militar" drill on 5onda"2 set against an imagined scenario in #hich China invades the island in $81@% ?he fi"e0day e9ercise is part of the island1s )i est annual military manoeu"re which is this year codenamed QFan (uan . nd. ad@unct professor of history at the Chinese Gni"ersity of Fon (on and senior fellow at the 7amestown Foundation.=1 (Fan 8lory . 7anuary -3#. &n a press inter"iew.#. Ii scolded a certain co ntr" for 0-ringing disorder to a region and even the #orld for the sa!e of its o#n self-interest1 (China 'ews Ser"ice. $arch .S#. China :rief Colume -4..com/. . Cui ?ian*ai. ?aiwan military drill sta es China attac* scenario./)ei@in s0 a ressi"e0new0forei n0policy0implications0for0the0south0china0sea/. warned <ashin ton a ainst sidin with 7apan o"er the latter1s so"erei nty disputes with China o"er the Miaoyu0Sen*a*u islands. $arch .2 &fen . Compared to predecessors ex-president Jiang Remin and ex-president ' 2 Ii is more read" to se militar" m scle to p t press re on real and potential adversaries% Apart from committing nprecedented reso rces to .S2 +euters. Almost on a dail" -asis2 Chinese a thorities have deplo"ed marine police assets in the vicinit" of the Diao" -Sen!a! islands to demonstrate China’s sovereignt" claims over the archipelago% . -4. $ay . $arch ->#." 3 ssian /etfighters and s -marines d ring his 5arch trip to 3 ssia . 7une -D2 Winhua. http://www. $ay .

ai#an has r led itself for more than six decades since their split in 1HKH at the end of a civil #ar% 0<ver the past fe# "ears2 ties across the Strait have improved and civil exchanges have -een on the rise2 . 'e also #arned of the threat from China’s deplo"ment of more than 12F88 -allistic and cr ise missiles targeting . ?he amphi)ious assault ships could )e used in its disputes in the %ast China Sea and the South China Sea. desi ned to carry transport. .development and its territorial disp tes #ith neigh-o ring co ntries% “Boo*in ahead. Fe was re0elected in 7anuary last year. aimin to deter the ?aiwanese from "otin for Bee ?en 0hui. editor0in0chief of the ?aipei0)ased Asia06acific Mefence $a a.t militar" threat from the mainland has not accordingl" diminished. China halted its sa)re0rattlin only after the Gnited States sent two aircraft carrier )attle roups to waters near the island. anti0su)marine and attac* helicopters.” he said.ensions across the ?aiwan Strait have eased since $a Ein 0@eou1s China0friendly administration came to power in $88P on a platform of )eefin up trade and tourism lin*s. . we can e9pect China to put into ser"ice O to name @ust a few O its first carrier )attle roup. t .” ?aiwanese army ma@or0 eneral ?sen Fu0hsin told reporters last wee*.” said (e"in Chen .ai#an2 as their acc rac" has -een enhanced% . ?he 6eople1s Bi)eration Army launched )allistic missiles into waters near ?aiwan durin a series of li"e0fire drills in -==H and -==D.ine. Chen added.amphi)ious assault ships. “China1s landin capa)ilities would )e si nificantly lifted once its forces are armed with the amphi)ious assault ships. stealth planes and ?ype >3.ei/ing has still not r led o t the se of force against the island sho ld it declare independence2 even tho gh . the independence0minded president then see*in another four0year term.

mpact – A$( China .adD3andom ..

->/. Dealing #ith China. e"en in the )est of cases on its )eha"ior to date. http://www. China's . direct action in the re io n. +ussia. and permission for G./> )illion trade with the re ion mi ht seem inconseLuential. capitali.he" do not need to . 6a e /. Be"era e a ainst Gncle Sam.. shadow of the prosperous G. counterdru and counterterrorism operations. Exports (mostly commodities# to China have gro#n -" more than E88 percent in fi"e years. minin . who lar ely control commodities. includin China.NSP Compared with G. it is li*ely that the 6+C will continue to e9pand its military en a ement with Batin America. &t offers the followin advantages: 6resti e. ?he no"elty of freLuent hi h0le"el Chinese "isits su less often. a -argaining chip #hen dealing #ith the United States% .>>/#. rns Case Chinese infl ence means that co ntries sa" no to the plan Ellis 11 N+. elevates a small co ntr" into the -ig leag es of glo-al actors% &t supplies respect for those li"in in the From Batin America's perspecti"e. which will increase in "olume and sophistication.S. and personnel trainin % ?his dynamic will chan e how the re ion1s o"ernments )ar ain when it comes to access to )ases. %CA' %BB&S is a professor of national security studies. China0Batin America military en a ement: ood will. amin . )uildin on the5 /45 demonstration of its eLuipment in the AB:A countries. Au ust . Chinese trade and investment gives Latin politicians and .S.0Batin America trade (.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP expanding relations #ith China might seem li*e a ood idea.ild p Latin American trade capacit" to deal with di"erse )usinesses. ests that American leaders. who "isit China can -argain on the spot #itho t a lot of caveats. @oint operations. the 43C #ill li!el" remain highl" attentive to the U%S% 2 And2 Chinese cooperation !e" to extract concessions from the U%S% and ens res aid the" #ant Johnson 8F NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies. ChinaMs expand ing ind stries are a temporar" -oon to reso rce-rich Latin America. particularly as re ardin its security cooperation.P gro#ing China-Latin America military engagement means that the United States #ill find its freedom of action in the region constrained in ways that were not the case in the past.//>H.herita e.or /research/reports/. confident of its place in the world.siness elites. at ?he Ferita e Foundation.in on *ey )rea*throu h transactions when they occurIwhether with 6eru and Colom)ia. . includin arms sales./-> )illion in .N3P Fowe"er. for e9ample. ha"e i nored the re ion.>--. Batin America is increasin ly acLuirin options )eyond those offered )y the Gnited States. with a research focus on Batin America1s relationships with e9ternal actors. a ma@or world power. and &ran.S. reLuests that are percei"ed to "iolate their so"erei nty %) :ased Aside from such scenarios. ood )usiness. or elsewhereIin order to introduce end items into the mainstream arms mar*et of the re ion. and simulation with the Center for Femispheric Mefense Studies. &ts transactions are -ased on simple exchanges% ?heir leaders have -road a thorit" to negotiate foreign deals #itho t #orr"ing a-o t legislative oversight2 the r le of la#2 or altr istic o-/ec tives% Gnli*e <estern leaders. and strate ic position. &n followin this course. Batin American re imes will )e more li*ely to resist a reein to G. a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies. colossus. arms purchases. and ener y industries. At a minimum. Chinese leaders represent state monopolies-#hich mesh #ell #ith Latin American government o#nership or mana ement of telecommunications. Strate ic Studies &nstitute.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America. modelin . Meals with few reLuirements. intelli ence5 sharin .S. althou h response2 it is also li*ely to )ecome )older o"er time particularly as the current /th eneration Chinese leadership is superseded )y youn er leaders who ha"e rown up in a 6+C that is an accepted political and economic power.

>>S. As was ar ued in chapter . normati"e e"olution is typically unidirectional. S ch an o tcome #o ld also certainl" favor the United States% Lots of factors prevent great po#er conflict #itho t hegemon" 6ett#eis 18 (Christopher 7. China is only one of the economic partners with whom Batin America has )een tryin to cooperate. Strate ic restraint in such a world )e "irtually ris* free. “?he rise of China in the re ion could complicate G. Some of these nations may try to use the Chinese alternati"e to challen e G. weapons shipments. 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at ?ulane. he emony.S.S.A$( China ?ills 'eg Chinese infl ence in Latin America doesn’t h rt hegemon" Jiang $88@ NShi9ue 7ian . . then an ad@ustment in rand strate y would )e e9ceptionally counter0producti"e. the idea that war is a worthwhile way to resol"e conflict would ha"e no reason to return.or /sites/default/files/%nterMra onFinal.wilsoncenter. efforts to control ille al immi ration.. &t is well0*nown that Latin America has )een on the path of reform and openin to the outside world for almost two decades.pdfP . %'?%+ ?F% M+A8J'R China1s 6resence in Batin America. Jne editorial in the <all Street 7ournal. .he United States’ concern over the closer relationship -et#een China and Latin America is misplaced and nnecessar". for instance.”H . . the dru trade and money launderin )ecause China is cooperatin with Batin countries that are not especially friendly toward those efforts. -SH0D# &f the only thin standin )etween the world and chaos is the GS military presence. &n the a e of lo)ali. Man erous ?imes0?he &nternational 6olitics of 8reat 6ower 6eace. $ore importantly. says. As a result. Meputy Mirector of the &nstitute of Batin American Studies (&BAS# of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences?hree Factors in the +ecent Me"elopment of Sino0Batin American +elations. http://www. :ut it is worth recallin that none of the other explanations for the decline of #ar – nuclear weapons2 complex economic interdependence2 international and domestic political instit tions2 evol tion in ideas and norms – necessitate an activist America to maintain their validit"% &ere American to -ecome more restrained2 n clear #eapons #o ld still affect the calc lations of the #o ld -e aggressor 2 the process of glo-ali+ation #o ld contin e2 deepening the complexit" of economic interdependence2 the Gnited 'ations could still deploy peace*eepers where necessary2 and democracy would not shri"el where it currently e9ists. China nderstands #ell that Latin America is the -ac!"ard of the United States2 so China has no intention whatsoe"er to challen e the American he emony in Batin America.ation -oth of them sho ld cooperate to p sh for#ard So th-So th cooperation% As a matter of fact2 f rther cooperation -et#een China and Latin America #ill )eneZt regional peace and de"elopment in the Asia06aciZ c re ion and in Batin America.he ne#s media in the United States have -een portra"ing a #rong perception of the de"elopment of Chinese relations #ith Latin America.t endeavors to attract more foreign investment and li)erali.oth China and Latin America have -een opening to the o tside #orld. p . .e the mar*et so as to stimulate rowth.

->>S/:F>. and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep. )ut should try to avoid nilateral 0contri.0China relationship. interests. some would ar ue that. ?he Fistorian. ?he current Chinese Communist 6arty leadership. American 7ournal of Chinese Studies. ?his scenario would constitute a serious challen e to 4resentl"2 China has caref ll" crafted a Latin American polic" that is tr"ing to avoid antagoni+ing the United States in the region. D> . more confident. ?hird2 .e control of the canal. with potential to de"elop into a new Cold <ar. ?he war on terrorism has pro"ided important opportunities to sta)ili. 6olicy Studies 7ournal.S. Accordin to . Since the early -==>s :ei@in 1s policy toward the G. uncertain a)out the American relations with &ndia and a)out the 'A?J e9pansion. &t could )ecome in"ol"ed in distant disputes only so lon as they remain "ery Menny +oy.h s it is in . from the standpoint of the Chinese military and others in :ei@in . H3 ?herefore. and li*ely to remain so for many years.pdf.ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies.sprin er. ?his is due to se"eral factors.S.China in Latin America doesn’t h rt heg Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er. reduce trou)le. H= 6o rth2 .S. . 6irst2 China is #ell a#are that the United States has traditionall" regarded Latin America as #ithin its sphere of infl ence and as a conseLuence that <ashin ton is "ery sensiti"e a)out :ei@in 1s acti"ities in its “)ac*yard. as the 6+C would tend to "iew G. and not see* hostile powers: :ei@in is uneasy a)out the G. 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism.S.S. de"elop cooperation. who has past )usiness lin* with the 6BA.ei/ing has attempted to !eep a lo# profile and avoid open confrontation #ith the United States.3SS>.com/content/pdf/->. interests. HD access to the 6anama Canal )ased on the Futchhison <hampoa Company1s control of the port facilities at )oth end of the canal.S. s)ha P After a period of fundamental reassessment in the Chinese forei n policy in the late -==>s 2 China has adopted a strateg" designed not to challenge the U%S% in spite of the fact that the G. interests as )arriers to the achie"ement of the Chinese oals. Asian Affairs.>>H.S. China was (and is# wea*. since relati"e American power and influence in that re ion mi ht proportionately decline unless the Gnited States e9pends more efforts and resources to counteract the new player. H4 :u shu di Ndo not see! enem"N has -ecome an essential part of China’s ne# foreign polic"% H/ &t has )ecome clear that ..S. air)orne G. and norms as a means to promote its national interests.S. An e9ample is the notion that the 6BA will deny G. today. China is no lon er a “risin power”I)ut a “risen power. ?here remain concerns a)out possi)le isolation and encirclement )y confrontation. rules. http://lin*. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science. ->0-0$88F N“+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America”. An ad"ersarial G.S. And it has e"en sou ht to shape the e"olution of that system in limited ways. and at times.=.ei/ing considers that China sho ld contri)ute to the de"elopment of the ?hird <orld. $assachusetts. more constructi"e approach to#ard regional and glo-al affairs.S. &t has em)raced much of the current constellation of international institutions.” Wiaopin . Asian 6erspecti"e.” HS Second. the emer ence of a new reat power in an important re ion could intrinsically harm G. &n fact. 7 JG+'AB JF C F&'%S% 6 JB&?&CAB S C&%'C% =/ As a matter of fact. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e. pSS. li*e its predecessors since Men . warship G.ei/ing’s interests to phold the stat s : o of supportin a li)eral international trade re ime and preparin themsel"es to )e efficient competitors. especially in relations to the G. is to “stren then confidence. troops could Luic*ly and easily sei.S.e the G.ei/ing also has reali+ed that a more prospero s2 developed China #ill contin e to need American capital2 advanced technolog"2 and certain man fact red goods% . some of the fears associated #ith rising China are ill sor".S. in"ol"ement in Central Asia.n the near f t re2 China is not capa-le of pro/ecting militar" po#er -e"ond Asia despite its glo-al aspirations.ei/ing cannot afford to /eopardi+e its relations #ith &ashington to maintain militar" presence in the region .tion1 in the sec rit" area2 since the U%S% is ver" sensitive in this area2 and it could easily lead to misunderstandin s. interests could "ary reatly dependin on how :ei@in see*s to employ this power. Bi has pu)lished do. Futchhison <hampoa is controlled )y Fon (on )illionaire Bi (a0shin . -> &ssue . &n contrast to a decade a o. remains committed to a forei n policy that creates e9ternal conditions conduci"e to China1s domestic need for stron economic rowth.ei/ing has ta!en a less confrontational2 more sophisticated. Col.0China relationship would find :ei@in usin its rowin stren th in a purposeful and systematic assault on G. support for ?aiwan is seen as a continued affront to China1s sense of national so"erei nty. interests.e. should this threat materiali.” HH &n a sense. the world's most populous country now lar ely wor*s within the international system. ?he de ree to which increased Chinese power mi ht endan er G.

:ei@in see*s to stay on ood terms with the left0oriented re imes such as Cene.ai#an pro-lem (i. :ei@in prefers to use trade promotion and @oint "entures to maintain friends in the re ion.uelan ener y a reements with China ultimately may ser"e to di"ert oil from the Gnited States. on "arious Batin American issues: such as the G. China needs a stron ally in Batin America..ei/ing to pla" a 0C -a card1 #ithin the larger context of the . So far2 .uela1s oil e9ports and mar*et for manufactured products. ?o date. ?aiwan. China supports Cu)a in maintainin its current political system and in clashes with the G. $e9ico. &t is should )e noted that :ei@in no lon er lam)astes of American imperialism since it is not in the :ei@in 1s lon 0 . and ?i)et issues.0 Cene. &t is widely has )ecome less salient.” Fe asserted that Despite its disagreements #ith &ashington a-o t man" iss es2 . Since the early -==>s. for Cene. )oth of them could not see eye to eye with <ashin ton on a "ariety of issues. etc. :ei@in 1s staunchest ally in the re ion. 6resident ChU"e.e.uela.ation mo"ement Chinese see! a delicate -alance in enco raging Latin American co ntries to distance themselves from the United States and s stain their economic development2 #hich the U%S% is long considered as a gro#th engine% ?here are still se"eral disa reements )etween :ei@in and <ashin ton in the re ion. term interests to o"erthrow the present world order. and place this oil at the disposal of the reat Chinese fatherland. and +ussia. the two countries ha"e )een cooperatin closely in a "ariety of international issues.S.>>/. Cu)a. *nown that the :ush Administration wishes to remo"e the Castro re ime.S. there are few communist re imes that :ei@in call friends in the world today. in Mecem)er . em)ar o a ainst Cu)a. China1s role in the re ion remains mar inal.# appears o tlandish2 at least for the near and medi m term% D. :ei@in offers lar ely moral support for Fa"ana and sees its economic reform as a model for the Cu)an reform.il under Bula. owes much of its de)t to %urope.S.ei/ing is nli!el" to threaten the f ndamental interests of the United States in the &estern J JG+'AB JF C F&'%S% 6 JB&?&CAB S C&%'C% =D 'emisphere. &n addition to Cu)a. 8i"en the current poor state of G. the Chinese challen es are mainly from the economic arena. &n comparison with the Gnited States influence in Batin America and the Cari))ean. D/ <hile Cene.ei/ing proves less and less #illing to s pport Latin American co ntries’ direct confrontation #ith &ashington . At present. o"ernment. 'onetheless. Facin hu e de"elopment needs at home. D4 :ei@in 1s close relations with Fa"ana are as much lia)ilities as assets. Fence China continues to attac* the G.” DH . Cene. China does not ha"e the means nor the will to ma*e a military commitment to Cu)a.uelan relations under the ChU"e.uelan ener y officials ha"e denied this.&t is apparent that an" attempt -" .S. the Chinese are competin with the G. and :ra. stance also moti"ates the Chinese support of Cu)a. Ar entina.ei/ing has adopted a lo#-!e" approach in order to prevent p -lic confrontation #ith the United States . 7apan. was reported to ha"e referred to Cene. +&CAB+E :%?<%%' ?A&<A' A'M ?F% 6+C &' BA?&' A$%+&CA =H yet :ei@in 1s support for the economic nati onalism and anti0 lo)ali. %conomically. parallel arms sales. China's positions on human ri hts.uela under ChU"e. As China )ecomes an esta)lished power in lo)al system 2 it is in China’s o#n interests to see Latin America and the Cari--ean to en/o" political sta-ilit" and economic prosperit"% “'ow we are free.small in scope. this does not translate into enormous financial commitment.ation (<?J#. After the collapse of the former So"iet )loc. D. China1s continued support of Cu)a appears moti"ated )y desire to maintain “old friendship” with Fa"ana. whereas Cu)a acti"ely supports China in its admission to the <orld ?rade Jr ani.uela1s lon oil0 producin history as “->> years of domination )y the Gnited States. Gnli*e the former So"iet Gnion. which it deems unresponsi"e and detrimental. American o)ser"ers worry that Cene.S.S. Counteractin the G. :ei@in is *nown as a primary supporter of Fa"ana.

'ot only is Batin America an interestin re ion to study )ecause of it1s unusually persistent pro)lems with insta)ility. electronics.n o r sample of 1P Latin American co ntries from 1H@1-$8882 there #ere $8 co ps d’etat2 KF1 political assassinations2 $1@ riots2 and 11A crises that threatened to -ring do#n the sitting government. ?he )i story of the last two decades is the rise of a middle class in many Batin American countries.il1s and $e9ico1s rowth rates in . political insta)ility is a persistent and pernicious pro)lem in the re ion. which indicates that recent mo"es to increased democracy in the re ion may )rin a)out less insta)ility in the future. . and e"en cars ha"e -enefited those in the middle and lo#er middle ran!s% Jn the ood side. Senior Fellow for Batin America Studies.>-> tells that storyIand the positi"e role that China can and does play.nsta-ilit" is inevita-le . Second.A$( China ?ills Local EconomiesDSta-ilit" Chinese infl ence !e" to Latin America’s econom" <’Neil 1$ NShannon. &n a &n this paper we analy. 4 All of the rest of the countries switched from a democracy to an autocracy (or "ice "ersa# at least once. China1s sales of clothin .->/.H. &n this paper. connections to the #orld’s economic engine #ere important in #a!e of the #orld financial crisis% Comparin :ra. Jnly three Batin American countries were consistently democratic o"er the thirty year period: Costa +ica.cfr.lanco2 8H (Bon Bi"e Memocracy: ?he Meterminants of 6olitical &nsta)ility in Batin America.or /oneil/. Achieving a middle class lifest"le relies in part on higher incomes2 . regime t"pe is a significant determinant of insta-ilit" in the area% Co ntries #ith higher democrac" scores also have lo#er average political insta-ilit" .uela.t also on greater p rchasing po#er% Access to more goods of -etter : alit" and at lower prices.pdfVem)edded\trueVchrome\true# +an*ed as the third most unsta)le re ion in the world in the post0war era. &n sum. and 6eru./->/. .il.edu/cas/econ/wppdf/insta)ilityinla [. China’s trade has also -enefited Latin America’s cons mers . oo le. Colom)ia. (-==D##. Ar entina. has changed the lives of man". China1s %conomic +ole in Batin America. H <e find three main interestin results: First.al. and Cene. )ut focusin on a small sample helps us to a"oid potential pro)lems with poolin data from a lar e set of "ery different countries.D/-.>-. http://)lo s. political insta-ilit" has -een a pervasive pro-lem in Latin America % 1 .D/chinas0economic0role0in0 latin0america/P trade #ith China has helped sp r Latin America’s economic gro#th.ou. %specially for :ra. / 8i"en the many studies that document the ne ati"e relationship )etween insta)ility and capital accumulation (Alesina V 6erotti (-==D#2 Alesina et. https://docs. it is li*ely that this insta)ility has hampered economic de"elopment in the re ion.com/"iewerR url\http://www. we find that income ine: alit" and ethnic fractionali+ation .ncreased ties #ith China have pla"ed a -ig part of the strong ()y Latin American standards# >D4 gro#th of last decade.to . ?his result is tempered thou h )y our findin that lon li"ed democracies ha"e a reater chance of e9periencin insta)ility than eLually lon li"ed autocracies.e the determinants of political insta)ility in a panel of -3 Batin American countries from -=S. .>>>.. we see* to unco"er the factors )ehind this insta)ility.>r .

>>3 a series of de"elopments in se"eral Central American countries su ested that dru 0traffic*in or ani. less than one percent of the estimated D>> to S>> tons of cocaine that departed South America for the G. “Areas to <atch: ?he Mru <ar in Central America. $818 ((atherine Fu))ard. Another area of particular concern is 8uatemala. $e9ican dru traffic*in or ani. the "ehicles traditionally used for smu lin dru s.S. %"idence shows that the le"el of dru traffic passin throu h Central America has s*yroc*eted in the past two years alone. Colom)ia. Accordin to a report from the G. where appro9imately -. ?he effects of this increase in dru 0smu lin acti"ity are already )e innin to )e felt in some Central American countries. ?odayofficials estimate that )etween si9ty and ninety percent of the cocaine that enters the G. ?his astoundin increase in land0)ased traffic*in is the result of concerted efforts )y the American.S. tra"els throu h Central America.are -oth important factors -ehind insta-ilit"% Co ntries #ith lo# Cor highG levels of ine: alit" have less average insta-ilit" than co ntries #ith average levels of ine: alit"2 and ethnic fractionali+ation has a non linear effect on political insta-ilit"% .ncreases in ethnic fractionali+ation lo#er insta-ilit" ntil a certain level of diversit"2 at #hich point an" increases in diversit" are associated #ith higher political insta-ilit" .>>= in dru 0related incidents. and political insta)ility to states that are already wea*. and the G. officials estimate that the aerial traffic*in of cocaine has decreased )y as much as ninety percent.or /)lo /areas0watch0dru 0war0central0america.D>> people were *illed in . and Colom)ian o"ernments to increase monitorin and interdiction of lar e ships and aircraft. As the smu lers increase their presence. which the G. A6+ . Mru "iolence is on the rise in Fonduras. step up efforts to com)at dru 0traffic*in cartels.ations O $e9ican cartels in particular O were increasin ly esta)lishin new land0)ased smu lin routes throu h Central America. we find that many of the macroeconomic "aria)les included in our estimation (includin the le"el and standard de"iation of inflation and o"ernment )ud et deficit# are only wea*ly si nificant at )est. a *ey transit point for Colom)ian cocaine headed for the Gnited States. State Mepartment calls “the epicenter of the dru threat. and maritime traffic*in has decreased )y an estimated si9ty percent. and unprepared to deal with the loomin threat. corruption and inadeLuate law enforcement efforts ha"e led to low interdiction le"els durin the past se"eral years.” &n 8uatemala. accessed on ->/-D/-># Central American states are findin themsel"es increasin ly cau ht in the crossfire as $e9ico.S.S. ?hird. $e9ican. corruption.S.ations ha"e ta*en ad"anta e of this situation and mo"ed some of their operations into 8uatemala. As a result of these efforts. Crac*downs on air)orne and maritime shipments from South America are forcin $e9ican dru traffic*ers to switch to land0)ased smu lin throu h Central America.” http://csis.S. smu lers were forced to find other means of transportin their dru shipments.>>S transited Central America. %ntire re ions of . Jnly la ed "alues of trade openness and in"estment are helpful in e9plainin current political insta)ility. Dr g #ar f els insta-ilit" in Latin America CS. Accordin to a S?+A?FJ+ reportk. poor. in . :ecause of this challen e to traditional traffic*in mechanisms. )y early . they are )rin in "iolence.S. C<. 'ational Mru &ntelli ence Center.

>>-.H4. the increased openness of the Batin American economies ena)led Chinese e9ports to penetrate the domestic mar*et.or /->.>>H China1s imports from Latin America increased sevenfold #hile its exports to the region more than tripled.nvestment -" China -oosts gro#th +hys Jen!ins2 8P %nriLue Mussel 6eters.ations.doi.com/science/article/pii/S>4>HSH>W>S>>-==/ # (eywords: China2 Batin America2 trade2 forei n direct in"estment2 competition .he increased competitiveness of China and its expanded presence in #orld mar!ets is having a ma/or impact on )oth de"eloped and de"elopin countries. much less is *nown a)out the implications for Latin America. and so traffic*ers are aware of that and they always loo* for the path of least resistance.>>4 and 6rasad. Jne G' official said. <hile this has )een e9tensi"ely analy. ?hey are underde"eloped. . “All of these are conditions for "iolence and chaos. http://d9..>>/#. A decade a o trade -et#een China and the region #as limited . -==S#.the country are now essentially under the control of these or ani.4H0. the rapid gro#th of Latin American trade with China dates from the end of the -==>s. 6a es .ation. especially after China @oined the <?J in . As can )e seen from Fi ure -. ha"e wea* @udicial systems. &ssue . &SS' >4>H0SH>W. . which included trade li)erali. this paper concentrates on the first two identified )y (aplins*y and $essner. while a num)er of Batin American leaders ha"e )een to :ei@in .. &n terms of the channels of interaction )etween the Asian Mri"ers and Batin America. (http://www.ed from the point of "iew of de"eloped countries (Cass et al.worldde".>>/. althou h some restrictions remained in a num)er of countries for se"eral years after that. Startin in the mid0-=3>s most of the countries of the re ion had underta*en far reachin economic reforms. ?here is reason for concern that the re ion will increasin ly )ecome a )attle round in the $e9ican cartel war )ecause the conditions in many Central American countries ma*e them particularly "ulnera)le to attac*.hese gro#ing economic lin!s have -een reflected politically with the "isit of Chinese 6resident Fu 7intao to the re ion in .” 6oreign Direct ..->-D/@.sciencedirect. trade and forei n direct in"estment (FM&#. Murin -===O. .>-. and ha"e often recently emer ed from conflicts that left them awash with weapons. <orld Me"elopment. pri"ati. ?he ne9t section focuses on the direct impacts and the followin section on the indirect impacts of China on the re ion in terms of the .t this has changed dramaticall"% Chinese firms are also -eginning to invest in Latin America% . $auricio $esLuita $oreira.ation and reductions in fiscal deficits. ?he &mpact of China on Batin America and the Cari))ean.. Colume 4D." the end of the 1HH8s2 inflation rates had -een -ro ght do#n2 the Latin American economies #ere far more open than they had )een two decades earlier and most countries had adopted e9chan e rate policies which a"oided e9tremes of o"er"aluation (&M:. Fe)ruary. t he most "isi)le of which is the $e9ican roup *nown as the Tetas.>>S. and in some instances e"en loss of control of territory.>D. As a res lt exporters in Latin America #ere #ell placed to respond to the -oom in import demand from China% At the same time.

his paper presents empirical and detailed evidence of the trade impact of China on Latin America2 and finds that it is one of the regions that stands to -enefit most from the emergence of this ne# glo-al pla"er% . For those that are )enefitin from the Chinese )oom. this paper ma*es plain.>>D.e"ond this Chinese impact on Latin America2 #hat is also emerging is a more promising and str ct ral relationship -eing . while $e9ico has )een ne ati"ely affected )y Chinese competition in e9port mar*ets. with :ra. )oth in terms of Batin America1s e9ports to third countries and as a pole of attraction for FM&. the ma@or policy challen e will )e to capitalise on the Chinese windfall without )ein pushed into to a raw materials corner and to remain inte rated in the "alue chain of lo)al production. https://www-. At the )e innin of the -=th Century China still represen ted nearly a third of world 8M6 )efore losin round. Ar entaria and 7a"ier Santiso 0 Chief Me"elopment %conomist and Meputy Mirector of the Me"elopment Centre of the J%CM.he economic ties -et#een the t#o regions #ere alread" strong2 . ?hese are often seen as ha"in contrastin e9periences. 6articular attention is i"en to the two lar est Latin American economies. ?he penultimate section of the paper discusses the impacts #hich the gro#th of China is having on development in Latin America and the Cari))ean with a partic lar emphasis on the possi)le implications for povert" red ction in the region. 7a"ier +odrb ue. O %conomist at the 8lo)al $ar*ets Mepartment of :anco :il)ao Ci.il ha"in achie"ed ma@or e9ports of primary commodities to China. J"er the past decade. is also a challen e for Batin American countries. the $iddle (in dom has e9perienced accelerated e9pansion. ?he concludin section identifies ma@or policy challen es for Batin America arisin from the rowth of China.competiti"e threats which it poses.caya. to maintain the continent1s comparati"e ad"anta e.lX+: e+-Lido" et al E (7or e :lU. ence of China is not new.Lue.. 3ising Chinese infl ence creates massive economic -enefits for Latin America . in particular in the area of infrastructure. &hile this emergence is perceived -oth as a threat to and as an opport nit" -" other developing co ntries2 in the Latin American context China loo!s more li!e a 0trade angel1 and a 0helping hand1 as #ell as -eing an o tlet for h ge amo nts of commodities from the region% China’s trade impact on Latin America is positive 2 -oth directl"2 thro gh a -oom of exports and indirectl"2 thro gh -etter terms of trade% ?he emer ence of China.ed and the re ion is to draw the ma9imum )enefits from its traditional endowments. :ra.t the emergence of China and . Spain. &t reinforces the ur ent case for more reforms.oecd. as well as the impacts on the re ion1s terms of trade. particularly the Gnited States.or /china/4S>H/44D.il and $e9ico.he a thors emphasise the need for the region to capitalise on this #indfall in a more active #a"% &f this opportunity for Batin America is to )e sei.ilt -et#een Asia and Latin America% . .ndia is a ma/or change in the scale of these relations% For %urope and the Gnited dependence on raw materials e9ports. States this is also a wa*e0up call. is underlined )y An us $addison in his seminal wor*s for the Me"elopment Centre .pdf# China’s economic -oom is a ma/or glo-al change% ?hat the emer howe"er. “A'8%B J+ M%C&BR CF&'A1S ?+AM% &$6AC? J' BA?&' A$%+&CA' %$%+8&'8 $A+(%?S. its economies will need to mo"e more acti"ely and rapidly towards more "alue0added industries and a"oid mere . 7une . <here possi)le these sections identify the countries and sectors which are most affected )y China. .” J%CM Me"elopment Centre.0Bidoy 0 %conomic :ureau of the 6resident.

%conomic cooperation )etween China and Batin0America is still somewhat stymied )y the fact that )oth sides possess a similar industrial structure which has resulted in increased trade friction )etween the two sides.il and Chile and second lar est tradin partner of Ar entina.>-40>D/>3/content!. O %conomist at the 8lo)al $ar*ets Mepartment of :anco :il)ao Ci. Fon Bei. as an important emer in mar*et economy. Experts agree China’s economic infl ence on Latin America is -eneficial .or . Spain.>>D. while $e9ico.lX+: e+-Lido" et al E (7or e :lU.ed enterprises in Batin America fear that they will lose their competiti"e ad"anta e in industries where China also has a share. local community o)@ections and the concerns of the en"ironmental protection lo))y. challen es as it loo*s to increase its in"estment in Batin America. 7a"ier +odrb ue. rgeoning trade relations -et#een China and Latin America is the ma/or driving force for improved ties -et#een the t#o% China is no# Latin AmericaMs second largest trading partner and ma/or investment so rce% &t is also the lar est tradin partner of :ra. “Wi's "isit to Batin America enhances relations. $e9ico.or . and there is a need for )oth the minin and a ricultural industries demandin easier access to the Chinese mar*et. ?he two sides will also promote people0to0people e9chan es and cultural communication.Chinese presence in Latin America !e" to economic gro#th in -oth areas ^i EDP/. Economic cooperation -et#een China and Latin America sho ld go -e"ond trade and reach into areas incl ding investment and scientific innovation% China should increase its direct in"estment in Batin America and participate in its infrastructure up rade process.caya.uela. http://www.china. 7une .>-4 (Eunfei O researcher on international relations.” China. reciprocal cooperation and friendship )etween China China has #or!ed to improve ties #ith Latin America in order to promote m t al -enefits2 nderstanding and cooperation2 rather than to gain a competitive edge in Latin America% . ?o this end. commented that China "iewed the "isit as an opportunity to enhance political trust. and safe uard food security throu h cooperation in a ricultural production. has maintained a strate ic partnership with China. China will face considera)le and the three Cari))ean nations. “A'8%B . enlar e their common interests. Some small and medium0si. 6eru and Cene.mproved economic ties -et#een China and Latin America are m t all" -eneficial2 #ith Latin American co ntries in need of Chinese investment in infrastr ct re constr ction2 a tomo-ile man fact re and nat ral reso rces exploitation2 #hile China has a h ge demand for Latin AmericaMs rich nat ral reso rces% Mespite the "isi)le )enefits.htm# 4resident IiMs first state visit to Latin American and the Cari--ean region has profo nd implications for relations -et#een the region and China% ?rinidad and ?o)a o is an important player in the %n lish0spea*in Cari))ean re ion and also one of China's most important partners in the re ion.>-4. Ar entaria and 7a"ier Santiso 0 Chief Me"elopment %conomist and Meputy Mirector of the Me"elopment Centre of the J%CM. it is crucial that China learns more a)out Batin American mar*ets and their rules and re ulations. ta*in trade cooperation as a *ey factor. Costa +ica is the only Central American nation to ha"e esta)lished diplomatic relations with China. spo*esperson for China's $inistry of Forei n Affairs. 7une 3 th .=>D3>=-. Mifferent industrial sectors in Batin America are also di"ided re ardin their o"ernments' China policy. sides to deepen their strate ic cooperation )ased on mutual political trust. . &n"estment in the re ion's oil and mineral resources will )e hampered )y such comple9 issues as la)or laws. with manufacturin sectors as*in for trade protection and China and LatinAmerica are set to enhance comprehensive relations.he val e of trade -et#een China and Latin America exceeded USQ$F8 -illion -" $81$2 #ith Latin America -ecoming ChinaMs second largest foreign investment destination% .0Bidoy 0 %conomic :ureau of the 6resident. as well as with other nations in Batin America and the Cari))ean.Lue.cn/opinion/.

:ra. and from the point of "iew of trade impact 2 Latin America #ill -enefit from increased Chinese demand and gro#th% . the only net loser will )e South Asia.n general2 Latin America2 has a s rpl s commodit" endo#ment that -oosts s"nergies #ith China needs and strateg" to sec re food and energ" imports in order to avoid shortages% .” J%CM Me"elopment Centre. Since .>>>.56 economists and other economists (Ball and <e iss. https://www-. ?he clear losers will )e.oecd.>>-. steel and iron ore. . )illion in the early -==>s to . &n terms of trade relations.he res lts of o r st d" are consistent #ith others s ch as the one prod ced -" .ilian and Chinese trade has leapt nearly threefold. which accounted for two0thirds of the oods e9ported..n comparative terms .-H )illion in . $ore detailed analysis would )e howe"er needed in particular referrin to the trade impact of China in the home mar*ets of Batin American countries such as. the ones specialisin in la)our0intensi"e manufactures e9ports. a )lessin for the :ra. while for Latin America the #elfare effect #ill -e positive% 6or se ctors s ch as agric lt re in Latin America2 the estimated impact of faster Chinese integration aro nd $8$8 is clearl" positive (with output up )y / per cent#. sectors such as te9tiles and from the point of "iew of countries. accordin to Chinese statistics. for e9ample. .or /china/4S>H/44D.pdf# Chinese trade impact on Latin America is2 in the short and medi m r n and in general terms2 positive% . China and Batin America ha"e )een intensi"ely de"elopin their relations o"er the past decade 4S . howe"er. Jn a"era e. $e9ico.ilian inde)ted economy and especially for the e9porters of soy)eans. as stressed )y the &$F.J+ M%C&BR CF&'A1S ?+AM% &$6AC? J' BA?&' A$%+&CA' %$%+8&'8 $A+(%?S.>>/#. ?he trade "olume )etween China and Batin America rose from .

6resident Milma +ousseff reco ni.il's )i est soy0producin state. or &6A$. CJ'?&'G%M M%S?+GC?&J' ?he After "ears of declines2 preliminar" government data s ggests that deforestation increased -" 1F percent -et#een A g st $81$ and April $81A2 compared #ith the same nine-month period a "ear earlier% ?he o"ernment says a f ller pict re #ill follo# the dr" season and clarif" #hat damage is man-made and #hat is the res lt of #ildfires and other nat ral deterioration% :ut the data so far supports the theory that high crop and commodit" prices provo!e destr ction2 said Ferreira. Latin AmericaMs -iggest co ntr" and one of the #orldMs top agric lt ral prod ct exporters2 do -ts a-o t the ne# code are clo ding long-term planning2 especiall" #ith regard to fields that ma" need reforesting. who critics say are more li*ely to fa"or de"elopment o"er en"ironmental concerns. told +euters. will compensate farmers for *eepin .il's federal en"ironmental a ency.>-. since Au ust . the federal official. the farmin and ranchin federation of $ato 8rosso.on %n"ironmental +esearch 8roup. a pu)lic policy ad"isor at the Ama.il's more than H million farms and ranches. dense law that.ra+il is str ggling to implement the new r les.Y she said durin a speech in the capital.on. http://www. is @ust now startin .com/article/. not producti"e fields. there was a -.il. especially a crucial first step to re ister :ra. Y<e're loo*in forward to the code's implementation so we can *now what chan es.Y said %duardo 8odoi. &t reLuires each of :ra. amon other rules. an e9ecuti"e at Famato. Meforestation fi ures. Y<e ha"e to consider this one of the reat challen es for the country. are tallied monthly and compiled in an annual ta)ulation that )e ins in Au ust. are hopin the o"ernment deli"ers on a "a ue pled e in the new code for Ypayments for en"ironmental ser"ices.. the state with lim)o ena)les destruction. which radually et updated as on0the0 round research complements satellite data. when the Ama.il0 deforestation0idGS:+%=H/-M=. an effort to ma*e up for past deforestation.Y warned Andre Bima. +e ulators.ra+il. Be al uncertainty cuts pro ress a ainst Ama. Jn <ednesday.>-4/>D/>H/us0)ra. states are only now )e innin to fi ure out how to re ister the farms. :ra. Still. :rasilia. ranchin and forestry and the protection of the en"ironment.. showin an annual decrease throu h 7uly . need to )e made. a pri"ate research institute that also trac*s satellite ima ery. addin to uncertainty that appears to )e f eling an increase in clearing of the Ama+on rainforest. the process will help identify e9actly what is cropland and forest on those plots and esta)lish which portions must )e replanted as woodland. Farmers then ha"e up to two decades for the plantin itself.ed the scale of the chore. last any lon er than necessary.Y ?hat is. stipulates that a total area rou hly the si.reuters.on dry season ma*es ima ery the most 6or farmers and ranchers in . ?he fi ures )uild on pro ress of pre"ious years. howe"er.Y a A year after adoptin chan es to its lon 0standin forestry policy. in theory. tri ered )y a one0year deadline esta)lished in the law. thou h. show an upswin in cleared forest chan es to en"ironmental policy. the most deforestation since Au ust. and those of a pri"ate research institute. Meforestation is alread" creeping into areas #here she has declassified par!land and changed polic" to allo# for h"droelectric dams and other infrastr ct re pro/ects% 6roducers. &ts fi ures su est deforestation increased )y as much as 33 percent durin the nine0month period. &f )orne out. a process essential to demarcate e9istin cropland from protected terrain. if any. :ra.il fi ures out how to apply it. &n addition to mappin out their precise location and dimensions for the first time. meanwhile. +euters.>-. $ore recent data. A pro"ision of the new code. ?he first step to enact the new code. en"ironmentalists say.il's o"ernment said it would dispel uncertainty in pre"ious forestry law. :ra. who mana es deforestation data for &)ama. A o"ernment study predicts the pro"ision will not hurt har"ests )ecause most replantin can ta*e place on de raded pastures.>-4>D>HP .il updated pre"ious deforestation fi ures.il's .D states to re ister e"ery farm and ranch. su ests the trend has since re"ersed. an arduous process that is e9pected to ta*e at least two years.Y 8eor e 6orto Ferreira. landowners and producers are oin a)out )usiness as usual. Unless the government enacts the code s#iftl"2 the la# co ld -ecome v lnera-le to the sort of de-ate and calls for modification that plag ed the previo s code% Y?his is a re ulatory transition that must not relia)le.A$( China ?ills Enviro Destr ction inevita-le and alt ca ses 4rada and Sta ffer 1A N6aulo 6rada and Caroline Stauffer. Y<e will pro"e that we ha"e solid instruments to maintain a )alance )etween the producti"ity of farmin . Y<e're loo*in at four or fi"e years )efore we would see any result. <hen lawma*ers last year adopted the new code.e of &taly must )e reforested. o"erns the amount of woodland that must )e preser"ed on farms and other producti"e property. At least two more years will )e needed after that for farmers to de"elop their reforestation plans. 6reliminary o"ernment fi ures. landowners and farmers say they don't *now how lon it will ta*e to enact the new Yforestry code. as the slo# rollo t of the ne# forest code and -ig ongoing development pro/ects create a scenario that activists sa" fosters destr ction. :ra. Gntil states spell out how to proceed.on deforestation. &n $ato 8rosso. e"en o"ernment a encies say the opposite is happenin 0 at least while :ra. the trend would underscore fears that +ousseff has dele ated too much enforcement to local authorities. 'ow. D/H/-4.Y +ousseff spo*e at an e"ent where :ra. ?he o"ernment's fi ures are modest compared to those compiled )y &ma. percent @ump in soy plantin .

located under C&+%S..wordpress. such as car)on mar*ets. For a time he was )lo in a)out these and other issues re ardin ethics. 6olicy V %n"ironment and Cice 6resident of the &nternational Society for %n"ironmental %thics. policy. :en@amin Fale is associate professor in the 6hilosophy Mepartment and the %n"ironmental Studies 6ro ram at the Gni"ersity of Colorado.edu/admin/pu)lication!files/. reason that2 in the a-sence of alternative energ" technologies and ro.>>3 he was Mirector of the Center for Calues and Social 6olicy. the Cooperati"e &nstitute for +esearch in %n"ironmental Sciences. &n turn.colorado. that could place a "alue on that woodland.his2 .>>D0.ed )y each of the a)o"e factorsIran in from the consumption of nonrene#a-le reso rces to the emission and s -se: ent acc m lation of car-on concentrations in the atmosphere7. Fis primary area of research focus is en"ironmental ethics.in the annual +oc*y $ountain %thics (+o$%# Con ress with Alastair 'orcross."ir in forests on their lands. and continues acti"e en a ement with the center )y co0or ani.3.Fe also wor*s closely with the Center for Science and ?echnolo y 6olicy +esearch.t these factors ta!en together nderc t harms--ased conservation arg ments aimed at mitigating climate change% . the near certain o tcome is that car-on2 other#ise deepl" se: estered in roc! and sediment at the -ottom of the car-on c"cle2 #ill enter the atmosphere and the terrestrial -iosphere. as these fuels are used.. and the en"ironment at http://cruelmistress. thou h he maintains acti"e interests in a wide ran e of ethical topics. %n"ironmental roups and the o"ernment are considerin "arious methods.pdf# & ar ue in this paper that the release of climate-altering C<$ into the atmosphere is -est nderstood as temporall" inevita-le2 at least from the standpoint of moral theor"% Namel"2 . :oulder. ?he current climate crisis is therefore only partially characteri. From . No frame#or!2 ho#ever2 appears li!el" an"time soon% %n"ironmental de radation is ine"ita)le 'ale 11 (r. http://sciencepolicy.>--. -elieve2 has implications for the ethical and political frame#or! appropriate to address the climate challenge . 'J'+%'%<A:B% +%SJG+C%S A'M ?F% &'%C&?A:&B&?E JF JG?CJ$%Sk. +esearchers say as much as D> percent of land protected )y the code is pri"ately owned or in "ulnera)le pu)lic areas outside e9istin par*s or nature reser"es.st glo-al remediation strategies2 h man activit" is headed to#ard the same end( the complete exha stion of fossil f el reso rces.com thou h he has ta*en a )rief )lo in hiatus to focus on other research. Fe is co0editor (with Andrew Bi ht# of the @ournal %thics.

Affirmative .

Uni: eness Ans#ers .

S.'s )i est economic ri"al. Fe has co"ered Batin America for almost . Fe has co"ered Batin America for almost .S. 6aris0)ased Jr ani. $81A ?im 6ad ett is <B+'0$iami Ferald 'ews' Americas correspondent co"erin Batin America and the Cari))ean from $iami.H years<B+'. Cice 6resident 7oe :iden will "isit Colom)ia.nfl ence 'igh – >eneric U%S% .il.ies #ith Latin America are high no# and are expected to rise% ?im 4adgett 3:. 'ow it hopes :iden will announce durin his "isit ne9t wee* that <ashin ton is set to help the South American nation ta*e part in )i er lo)al initiati"es li*e the ?rans06acific 6artnership (?66# and win mem)ership in the e9clusi"e.Qs disappointin trac* record in its own hemisphere. is the G. ?rinidad and ?o)a o ne9t wee*.S.ation for %conomic Cooperation and Me"elopment (J%CM#.S. lon time” 00 one that could also )e a )oon to $iami1s economyR &f so.or /post/why0china0)ehind0 fresh0us0mo"es0latin0america G.H years<B+'.S. &f that outreach is really serious 00 and i"en the G.U%S% . has )een ea er to fill the "oid.es there is now an economic power )ro*er element in Batin America. a)out renewed G. G.. Colom)ia @ust finished the first year of a free trade a reement with the G.S. the G. is still Batin America1s chief tradin partner. after a decade of economic )oom in Batin America. and it1s located in the far east: China. senior director of policy and the Americas Society and Council of the Americas in 'ew Eor*.com <hy China &s :ehind Fresh G.S. Still.S.S. :ra. outreach to Batin America and the Cari))ean. total commerce )etween the two hit a record trillion dollars last year.” says Christopher Sa)atini. $o"es &n Batin America http://wlrn. $81A ?im 6ad ett is <B+'0$iami Ferald 'ews' Americas correspondent co"erin Batin America and the Cari))ean from $iami. influence in the western hemisphere is in serious decline 00 and China. there1s pro)a)ly one word that sums up <ashin ton1s sudden interest in the world to the south. A trade and in"estment atherin in $iami :each this month hosted )y the Colom)ian 6roe9port A ency drew a lar er than usual crowd than*s in no small part to the )u. U%S% . it1s )etter to ta*e a wait0and0see approach 00 it could mean a )i er role for $iami as the .or /post/why0china0)ehind0 fresh0us0mo"es0latin0america “?he Administration suddenly reali.com <hy China &s :ehind Fresh G. &n fact. $a*e no mista*e.> am $on $ay . poised for what :iden is callin “the most acti"e stretch of hi h0le"el en a ement on Batin America in a lon .S.Fas the J)ama Administration finally disco"ered Batin America and the Cari))eanR After a first term mar*ed lar ely )y indifference to the re ion.S.S. $o"es &n Batin America http://wlrn. 6resident J)ama already swun throu h $e9ico and Costa +ica this month and ne9t month J)ama will host the presidents of Chile and 6eru at the <hite Fouse.> am $on $ay .s increasing its relationship #ith Latin American co ntries% ?im 4adgett 3:. the G.

S. toppin .D> )illion last year.” says 7uan Carlos 8on. “&t is a ma@or ateway for the G. “$iami is "ery important. South Florida trade with Batin America is already at record hi hs..)usiness ne9us of the Americas.” .ale. 6roe9port1s "ice president for forei n in"estment. and Batin America.

)ut that is now matched in America and Asia.com/. )ut underneath lie lin erin historical suspicions. http://www. A similar do#nt rn is apparent in Latin America for the same reasons% that has also sullied its ima e in Central Asia. Unfort natel" for China2 that’s not eno gh% <hile poc*ets of positi"e "iews re ardin China can )e found around the world.htmlP China is )ecomin a world power. 4/-3/-4. it is )e innin to reco ni. pro)lems stemmin from +ussia1s military sales to China. %uropean pu)lic opinion toward 'J< that China has )een the most ne ati"e in the world.nfl ence Lo# – >eneric Chinese soft po#er is lo# Sham-a gh 1A NMa"id Sham)au h.nytimes.” &t is trac!ing p -lic opinion polls worldwide and in"estin hu e amounts into expanding its glo-al c lt ral footprint.e the importance of its lo)al ima e and the need to enhance its “soft power. %"en in Africa I where relations remain positi"e on the whole I . p -lic opinion s rve"s from the 6ew +esearch Center1s 8lo)al Attitudes 6ro@ect and the ::C reveal that China’s image ranges -et#een mixed and poor. Fallin Jut of Bo"e <ith China. a professor of political science and international affairs at the 8eor e <ashin ton Gni"ersity and a nonresident senior fellow at the :roo*in s &nstitution. a policy China’s image has deteriorated over the past three "ears as a res lt of the flood of Chinese entreprene rs2 its rapacio s extraction of oil and other ra# materials2 aid pro/ects that seem to -enefit Chinese constr ction companies as m ch as recipient co ntries and s pport for nsavor" governments.>-4/>4/-=/opinion/fallin 0out0of0lo"e0with0china. ?here are li*ewise increasin si ns of strain with +ussia: on the surface. “external propaganda #or!1 and p -lic diplomac". there is considera)le harmony of world"iews and interests. And the negative vie# is expanding( for almost a decade. China1s reputation has also deteriorated in the $iddle %ast and amon the Ara) Bea ue due to the country1s support for the Syrian and &ranian re imes as well as its persecution of $uslim minorities in far western China. rowin trade frictions. immi ration contro"ersies and nascent strate ic competition in Central Asia.China .

and the since most co ntries have eas" access to #orld financial mar!ets2 most financing comes thro gh non-governmental so rces.. http://)lo s. and some in 6eru. Still. ?he ne9t Luestion is whether these lin*s are ood or )ad for the re ion.>->.. . goods flo#ing -ac! and forth have increased some A8 percent per "ear . Jf the oods China sends east nearly half o to $e9icoIa mi9 of consumer oods and capital oods (eLuipment for production#.-> )illion in .rade Chinese trade is nothing compared to the U%S% and not in the topic co ntries <’Neil 1$ NShannon. &nter0American Me"elopment :an*. 6eru. ?hou h promises continue. this is still / st a : arter of Latin America’s trade #ith the United States. China1s %conomic +ole in Batin America. :ra. . and Ar entina.-> )illion headin from Batin American countries into their nei h)ors.or /oneil/.he vast ma/orit" of Chinese f nds head to the Ca"man .D/-.his trade is also : ite concentrated.. and loans (from state0 owned )an*s#. and is rou hly eLual to GS.China .his trade leans in China1s fa"or. )rin in today1s total to rou hly GS. with a deficit (nearly all with $e9ico# of nearly GS. .here is m ch tal! of China’s escalating economic infl ence in Latin America. soya.cfr. and outpace Batin American resources from the <orld :an*. and are mainly raw materials (copper.->/. Cene. ?hese ha"e increased to countries such as le"el state "isits and has )een much touted in the press. . ?hese tens of )illions of dollars comprise a decent portion of China1s de"elopment loans a)road.il. iron ore. Senior Fellow for Batin America Studies. And it appears to )e le"elin off. %9ports to China come primarily from :ra.il. Chinese forei n direct in"estment has )een the focus of numerous hi h0 5one" flo#ing from China to Latin America has increasedItotalin some . has "et to ma!e a serio s regional mar!% Finally loans are a means of en a in Batin American nations.>-. lead.H )illion comin from the Gnited States or the GS. ?rade with China has e9panded dramatically o"er the past decade. this continues to )e less than the GS. :ut it is worth remem)erin that it )oth started from a low )ase and is une"enly distri)utedI affectin a few countries si nificantly and others "ery little. and su ar#.H> )illion. J"erall economic ties are indeed increasin . and %cuador.D> )illion from %uropean countries . J"er the last se"eral years.->> )illion.uela.nfl ence Lo# – U%S% . Gnited States %9port0&mport :an*. su estin that China won1t o"erta*e the Gnited States as the re ion1s primary tradin partner anytime soon . . forei n direct in"estment (FM&#. .D/chinas0economic0role0in0 latin0america/P .slands and the :ritish Cir in &slandsIs ggesting tax considerations instead of prod ctive investments .il.he mone" that is invested remains heavil" concentrated on raw materials and ener yImostly in :ra./->/.a)le num)ers. ?rade is the most "isi)le and important connection. Still. t it’s #orth loo!ing at #hat has (and hasn’tG act all" happened in the three main ways that China interacts with the re ion1s economies: trade. :ut these trade2 6D. nearly all in e9chan e for oil. tin. <hile si.2 and loan n m-ers s ggest the rise is slo#er than either the cheerleaders or na"sa"ers might s ggest. Chile. so far Chinese 6D.

ation” and o"er0reliance on demand from a sin le mar*et li*e China. Countries li*e :ra.he s rge in investment from China has also -ro ght to the fore local sensitivities a-o t foreign o#nership of agric lt ral land. includin increased e9ports of Batin American manufactured hu e Chinese mar*et. in some countries and economic sectors in Batin America.nitial hopes for a -roadening of the relationship. oods to the .st c"cles that ha"e afflicted the re ion for well o"er a century. . (Mutch disease refers to the tendency for a commodity )oom to result in currency inflation.>-./>-/-D/china0latin0american0 relations/=. the relationship now stands at a turnin point. http://carne ieendowment. which su)seLuently ma*es non0commodity e9ports less competiti"e#. anxieties a-o t expanding economic ties #ith China are rising Even in co ntries that have -enefited the commodity ties to China. China :rief. %"en the relati"ely small num)er of South American countries that ha"e )enefited the most from commodities ties with China ha"e lon e9pressed a desire . $oreo"er. most from e9pandin there are worries.il that ha"e fou ht to mo"e away from commodity0)ased e9port rowth worry a)out “de0industriali. China0Batin American +elations: ?he %nd of the FoneymoonR.China . Such anxieties are often -ased on historical patterns of export dependenc" and the tra ma of commodit" -oom-and-. After a nearly decade0lon period of increasin ly close economic ties )etween China and Batin America. .he hone"moon period )ased on the initial Batin American euphoria o"er e9panded trade and in"estment with China is giving #a" to anxieties. -/-D/-.or /..HnP :ut at the same time. rising Chinese foreign investment in the re ion1s mineral and a ricultural resources have raised concerns a-o t 0D tch disease1 and its negative impact on Latin American man fact ring exports.nfl ence Lo# – L%A% Distancing Latin America is distancing from China 6erchen 1$ N$att. have largel" -een disappointed% to mo"e )eyond a narrow Chinese focus on natural resource trade and in"estment. throu h a com)ination of e9ports to China and an inflow of Chinese in"estment.

Lin! Ans#ers .

” ?he Chinese government has its o#n particular interests and its actions are eared to fulfill them. a)out S3 percent of $e9ico1s total non0oil e9ports were sent to the Gnited States. faced a direct or partial threat from Chinese competition. international security. raised $e9ico -4 positions in its competiti"eness ran*in s from .. it has -ecome clear that 5exican man fact rers have started regaining their position #ithin the American mar!et .. http://www. which. and Batin American eopolitics as well as $e9ico and China. due in part to hi her capital per wor*er. $e9ico also started e9periencin a drop in its oil production in . and $e9ican economies ha"e started reco"erin . As Carne ie %ndowment1s <ei Fon 9ia e9plained in a recent panel. 5exico #as pro)a)ly the one Batin American co ntr" for #hom the expansion of China’s presence in the hemisphere #as not a hone"moon2 . .>>H.>>-..t a nightmare mar!ed -" -itter competition.3 percent from .ting to a A%P percent >D4 gro#th2 higher than other developing co ntries and the United States . especially when facin low 8M6 rowth. Fis e9pertise is in the analysis of lo)al affairs includin political ris*.S.>>/. ?hou h China1s money is still temptin .S...>-.” ?o et a )etter sense of these num)ers. . and only ained in two products.S.>>> to .No Lin! – Competition China’s competing #ith Latin America no# 5ont far-'el 1$ NAlfredo $ontufar0Felu is a uest )lo er to AA Jnline. China’s agenda #ith Latin America. 8alla her and 6or.of its top0. For one. 'ow.. responds to its domestic dynamics. . consider that from 7anuary to Jcto)er .or /content/me9ico0latin0 america[%.>-. and why it has the potential to )ecome Batin America1s lar est economy. emer in mar*ets.he onl" #a" to compete #ith China #as to -ecome more prod ctive and innovative% As the G.S.>>= to . China Luic*ly o"ertoo* $e9ico as the G.[3>[==s0risin 0starP ?he honeymoon )etween China and Batin America seems to ha"e ended. was offset )y an increase in . it amounted to 3= percent of such e9ports.1s second0lar est tradin partner. &n other words. Accordin to a :arclays report. After ainin admittance to the <?J in . &n .ra+il. fortunately. $e9ican manufacturers “e9perienced their lar est contraction of the pre0Behman crisis period. more than anythin .> sectors most important for $e9ico1s e9port industry. Exports have -een going p2 contri. :ut it was still clear that somethin needed to )e done.his is precisely #h" 5exico is in a comparati"ely -etter position than . $e9ico1s producti"ity rew -.americasLuarterly. $e9ico lost mar*et share in -. o"er 3> percent of $e9ican non0oil e9ports to the G. $e9ico: Batin America1s risin star M%C%$:%+ --. Latin American governments have (or need to# come to the reali+ation that there is no such thin as an “%ast0South fraternity.ecans*i find that.>-.>-> to . Accordin to the :arclay1s report. the <orld %conomic Forum (<%F# international oil prices.> e9ports to the G. China ained mar*et share in -3 of the . from .>-. $eanwhile. ener y security.>>D. 5exican man fact rers have -ecome more competitive% $eanwhile.

$r.S. 'ew Eor* ?imes. G. “?he pro)lem will not @ust o away. H///-4. $e9ico in particular. with a comprehensi"e strate y that includes )ut oes )eyond stimulatin economic rowth and alle"iatin po"erty. 5exico. need to set their o#n co rse on sec rit".ed crime sho ld foc s more on economic development and less on the endless )attles a ainst dru traffic*ers and or ani. and the chief o)stacle to economic pro ress. “&t needs to )e tac*led head0on. .htmlR pa ewanted\allV!r\>P <-ama ret rned to capitals in Latin America #ith a "astly different message.No Lin! – .” he added.he co ntries.ed crime capos that ha"e left few clear "ictors. Focus Shifts From Mru <ar to %conomy.nytimes. with the Gnited States playin more of a )ac*in role. ?hat approach runs the ris* of )ein seen as *owtowin to o"ernments more concerned a)out their pu)lic ima e than the underlyin pro)lems tarnishin it. president of the &nter0American Mialo ue. #hich is eager to pla" p its economic gro#th2 has mo nted an aggressive effort to pla" do#n its crime pro-lems. “J)ama )ecomes "ulnera)le to the char e of downplayin the re ion1s o"erridin issue. 3elationships with countries rac*ed )y dru "iolence and or ani.h mper >eneric U%S% shifting emphasis to economics no# – triggers the lin! Shear and Archi-old 1A N$ichael and +andal.” said $ichael Shifter. “&t is fine the reality on the round to change the narrative from sec rit" to economics as lon reflects and fits #ith the ne# stor" line%1 as . http://www.>-4/>H/>H/world/americas/in0 latin0america0us0shifts0focus0from0dru 0war0to0economy. oin as far as to encoura e the news media to a"oid certain slan words in Bast wee*. &n Batin America. reports.com/.

com Miplomacy in Action G.s c rrentl" trading #ith *ene+ ela . $81A Fact Sheet G. Mepartment of State.S.uela :ilateral %conomic +elations http(DD###%state%govDrDpaDeiD-gnDAF@EE%htm .h mper *ene+ ela U%S% .he United States is *ene+ elaMs most important trading partner% U%S% exports to *ene+ ela incl de machiner"2 organic chemicals2 agric lt ral prod cts2 optical and medical instr ments2 a tos and a to parts% <il dominates U%S% imports from *ene+ ela2 #hich is one of the top fo r s ppliers of foreign oil to the United States% A-o t F88 U%S% companies are represented in *ene+ ela% U%S% foreign direct investment in *ene+ ela is concentrated largel" in the petrole m2 man fact ring2 and finance sectors% .S. rea of &estern 'emisphere Affairs 7anuary -S.No Lin! – . +elations <ith Cene.

)roo*in s.rade 3epresentative’s office2 sales of services in 5exico -" ma/orit" U%S% o#ned affiliates #ere QAK%K -illion in $818% Sales of services in the United States -" ma/orit" 5exico-o#ned firms #ere QK%P -illion% According to the U%S% Em-ass" in 5exico2 the United States c rrentl" provides K1 percent of all foreign direct investment in 5exico2 -enefiting more than $121AH companies.s c rrentl" trading #ith 5exico Miana Cilliers Negroponte $ay . . time . .h mper 5exico U%S% .exas #hich hold 5exico as their main export destination% 5exico is also the second destination for exports from $8 other states and is ran!ed among the top five export destinations for AK states% . nonresident senior fellow with the Batin America &nitiati"e under Forei n 6olicy at :roo*in s focuses on Batin America and researches and writes a)out the 'ew Beft. According to the U%S% Cham-er of Commerce2 almost E million U%S% /o-s rel" on trade #ith 5exico2 the conse: ence of #hich is the potential creation of 18@2888 ne# U%S% Jo-s.0o)ama0me9ico0 trip0trade0in"estment0ne roponte &e agree that exports to 5exico -oth maintain and create /o-s in the United States% ?he G.H cents for Canadian e9ports to the Gnited States and / cents for China and .>>> new @o)s. 6 rthermore2 individ al states -enefit from exports to 5exico s ch as Ari+ona2 California and . o"ernment estimates that each additional )illion dollars in new e9ports supports more than D.e"ond the n m-ers2 the realit" of trade and investment is that the United States and 5exico compete together in the glo-al econom"% 4rod ction and s ppl" chains in North America are deepl" integrated #ith the U%S% content of 5exico exports to the United States estimated at K8 cents on the dollar% ?his compares to .. $81A =:>>am Formerly a trade lawyer and professor of history.ones and cultural affinity. :roo*in s. there e9ists a rowin inte rated manufacturin platform that ta*es ad"anta e of eo raphy.>-4/>H/>. accordin to a <ilson Center report.No Lin! – . &n short. cents for the %uropean Gnion.com Gp Front J)ama1s $e9ico ?rip: 6uttin ?rade and &n"estment at the ?op of the A enda http://www.S. populism and the relationship )etween criminal an s and state institutions.nvestment flo#s are also m t all" -eneficial% According to the U%S% .edu/)lo s/up0front/posts/.

oth the US and China den" the" are competing #ith each other.cn/content/S3HS.GeCeo&-JSFs# Chinese 6resident Wi Jinping heads to Latin America and the Cari))ean on Friday.. 'ot only ha"e these funds )een used in the field of oil production.N> .. GS not competin o"er Batin America: e9pert.ania.AC?=A3D( C'. Costa +ica and $e9ico follows his first forei n trip to +ussia and three countries in Africa. )ut )rin s )enefits. in a state "isit aiming at promoting ChinaMs cooperation #ith the region%5 Wi's "isit to ?rinidad and ?o)a o.No Lin! – Not Rero S m Not Rero-S m – m t al -enefits Iiaoxia 1A L&ang2 Economic <-serverD&orldcr nch2 FDED1A2 .nfl ence is not a +ero s m game >lo-al . GS Cice 6resident 7oe :iden is concludin his Batin America "isit on the same day. South Africa and +epu)lic of Con o. e9plainin that it is a ood thin for Batin America. All co ntries need .CA2 http(DD###%#orldcr nch%comDchina-$%8Din-america-8AH-s--ac!"ard-china8AH-s-rising-infl ence-in-latin-americaDforeign-polic"-trade-econom"investments-energ"DcHs11EK@DN ChinaMs involvement in the Latin American continent doesn’t constit te a threat to the United States.S.CAMS .uela. )ut they ha"e also safe uarded the ener y supply of the Gnited States.N LA.ed these countries' li"elihood 00 and to a certain e9tent reduced the impact of ille al immi ration and the dru trade on the G. told the 8lo)al ?imes that it is a coincidence that the two leaders chose to "isit Batin America at a similar time.Y5 . a fellow of the &nstitute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.shtmle.N A5E3. as well as sta)ili.NAMS 3. as he lea"es :ra. ?ao said. 5 Chinese and GS leaders "isit Batin America out of their respecti"e strate ic needs.N6LUENCE .il.il Friday. shortly after ta*in office in $arch. and said that the Ocompetition -et#een the #orldMs t#o -iggest economies for infl ence in Latin America is on displa" . &t is precisely )ecause China has reached Yloans0for0oilY swap a reements with Cene.S. Some media reports descri-ed Od eling visitsO -" Chinese and US leaders. China.Y 5 ?ao <en. Chinese forei n ministry spo*esperson Fon Bei said last wee* that the two countries can Ycarry out cooperation in Batin America )y i"in play to their respecti"e ad"anta es. lo)altimes.t a m ltiple choice of m t al -enefits and s"nergies.-.imes 1A (an %n lish0lan ua e Chinese newspaper under the 6eople's Maily. :ra. %ven if China has -ecome the Latin American econom"’s ne# pstart2 it is still not in a position to challenge the strong and diverse infl ence that the United States has acc m lated over t#o cent ries in the region% . 6or So th America2 China and the United States2 this is not a +ero-s m game. .N A5E3. %cuador and other countries that it )rin s much0needed funds to these oil0producin countries in South America.hao. and that China has no intention to challenge US infl ence in the area%) O. 5 <hile Wi *ic*s off his "isit. http://www.tMs not li!e in the 1Hth cent r" #hen co ntries divided their sphere of infl ence in a certain area% China and the USM involvement in Latin America is not a +ero-s m game2 Y ?ao said. ?an.

6a*istan. Wi tra"els to the GS for his first summit with 6resident :arac* J)ama on 7une S to 3 in California. Swit. and se"eral hi h0le"el "isitors to :ei@in . . and "isits of such hi h0le"el are usually arran ed lon time )efore they starts. 5 China has em)ar*ed on a diplomatic dri"e since completin its once0in0a0decade leadership transition with Chinese 6remier Bi (eLian also "isitin &ndia. After "isitin $e9ico.to interact and cooperate #ith other co ntries. ?ao said.erland and 8ermany.

E3..A3AC? <. and li*ely will total far 5 less than the promised .ilian Con ress.2 So th Carolina ) .DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3.E32 Lo isiana) J..N2 5ar"land J<'NN= . and Colom)ia.ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E.N.C'2 <hio) .S.ennessee) .SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.EE <N 6<3E.S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.A2 AND A63.2 *irginia J<'N ...<.n Argentina alone2 he said China #o ld ) invest Q$8 -illion in the next decade% Latin American nations ) #elcomed the increase in foreign capital that the Chinese #ere ) promising2 especiall" since the region #as experiencing a sl mp ) in attracting 6D.E3. po.' A5E3.>-/% 5an" of the ) planned pro/ects have not gone for#ard% At least one Chinese ) official speciali+ing in Latin America maintains that the Q188 ) -illion referred to -ilateral trade2 not investment%\K8\ ) According to some o-servers2 ChinaMs inexperience in investment ) a-road2 its lac! of information a-o t .CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www.htm# P2 .ENJA5.N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) . Amon the in"estment pled es hi hli hted in 5 the press durin 6resident Fu's trip to Batin America were: 5 railway. and oil 5 e9ploration pro@ects in :ra. and construction pro@ects in 5 Ar entina2 a nic*el plant and oil and as e9ploration in Cu)a2 5 copper minin pro@ects in Chile2 a steel mill.C'A3D >% LU>A32 .S. C<3?E32 .A3. 4<&E3MM .NAMS 6<3E..>N 4<L.<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t 3.A3A .N L% CA3D. oil e9ploration..A5A2 .llinois L.->> )illion )y .5 De5.<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .>N 3ELA.D *.N<*.No Lin! – China . :oli"ia.nfl ence 6ails Chinese investment in Latin America #ill not -e s ccessf l C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55. 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*.he visit of Chinese 4resident ' Jintao to several Latin ) American co ntries in Novem-er $88K raised expectations of a ) s -stantial increase in Chinese investment in the region in ) coming "ears .SA 5U3?<&S?.5 &E.C= AND ) [[S<6..LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<.CA2) AS.siness in Latin ) America2 and concerns a-o t the ris!s of investing in the ) region all com-ined have limited ChinaMs investment in the ) region%\K1\ .<IE32 California .N S<U. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=..ed.il2 and oil and as e9ploration 5 pro@ects in %cuador. Murin a speech to the :ra.A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .2 Alas!a) 3<.lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'. 5 Chinese promises of such hi h le"els of in"estment in the 5 re ion ha"e not yet materiali. 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J.. railway. ' ) stated that China #o ld invest Q188 -illion in Latin America ) over the next 18 "ears% .

.mpact Ans#ers .

as China responds to calls from :ra. Fowe"er.his s"m-olic move co ld ca se tensions to increase as the #orld’s t#o largest oil cons mers -attle o"er ri hts to :ra.S. .chinacenter.he #orld #ill -e #atching.uela. it is losing gro nd in !e" co ntries.il. influence presents a ma@or pro)lem . China already has replaced the G. as the lar est tradin partner for :ra.S. Fowe"er.nfl ence . mi ht find unner"in . this sho ld ca se the U%S% to pa" more attention to its so thern neigh-ors and ta!e steps to ma!e s re that China onl" -enefits economicall" and not politicall" at the expense of the U%S% . ?he fact that China presents a less democratic alternati"e to G. providing Latin America #ith a : asi-#orld po#er as an alternative to the U%S% Since the $onroe Moctrine. ?he G. trade with Batin America is not a . there are two pro)a)le answers. China +esearch Center.il. one that is ar ua)ly anchored -" China% . &n that re ard. includin oil. it sets a clear example of a possi-le shift in po#er a#a" from the U%S% and to#ard a more glo-al organi+ation. ?he first is that China’s intensif"ing relations #ith Latin America offer a clear sign of the end of U%S% dominance in the region2 and in a greater sense2 the entire #orld.ilian oil.S. Batin America has )een considered a secure sphere of influence for the G.S. As it stands.S. China presents an alternative to the United States. . there is seemin ly room for each side to row2 which implies that. which is )lossomin on the world sta e and is emer in as the clear leader in the re ion.il.il and di"ersifies its there is increasing #orr" that China is going to o tmatch U%S% trade in the re ion. dollar as the reser"e currency of the world. //-H/--. ?he third :+&CS summit in April pro"ided more insi ht into the potential conseLuences of China1s rowin place in Batin America "ia its relations with :ra. is o)"iously still the more dominant power in the re ion. not in G. .ero0sum ame.f China -ecomes a preferred partner in Latin America2 it #ill sho# that U%S% dominance aro nd the glo-e also is at ris!% So what does China1s rowin place in the re ion mean for the futureR Mependin on whom this Luestion is posed to.S. <hile the chances of such a proposal ainin support are de)ata)le. China is strictly concerned with commodities. )ut that is not necessarily a )ad thin in"estments. the competition ma" go -e"ond a race to Latin commodities and move into the .here is eno gh evidence to sho# that the tides have changed in favor of China% ?he other answer is that it means nothin . . )an*s of the fi"e :+&CS nations a reed to esta)lish mutual credit lines in their local currencies. At the "ery least.S. namely :ra. http://www. &ndia.t there are potentially harmf l political conse: ences O primarily. in fact.ad – 'eg Chinese infl ence in Latin America is a litm s test for po#er glo-all" – ndermines 'egemon" Cerna 11 N$ichael.here is clear evidence of an increasin ly sym)iotic relationship with China throu hout Batin America% <hile the U%S% is the most dominant trade partner to the re ion as a whole.S. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion.il1s 6etro)ras that will allow the oil company to drill in the 8ulf of $e9ico.il and Chile. and is on pace to do the same in 6eru and Cene. the definiti"e answer is no.S. is much more di"ersified than China at the moment and therefore does not need to enter into direct competition. G. &s China the preferred partner for Batin AmericaR At this point.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P <ith )oth the G. a ain lea"in the Gnited States as the re ion1s premier partner. +ussia and South Africa# was a )road0)ased international reser"e currency system pro"idin sta)ility and certainty. the United States sho ld not ta!e its place in the region for granted. &ncreasin trade and in"estment can )e )eneficial for all. )ut the power that China can deri"e from its rowin economic influence could )rin increased political and ideolo ical influence that the G.S. ?he idea was to set up a new e9chan e rate mechanism that would )ypass the G. Jne proposal to emer e from the summit of the fi"e nations (:ra. &n addition. ?he real answer pro)a)ly falls somewhere in the middle.S. the Chinese are not )roadenin their relations with the re ion in a way that directly competes with the Gnited States. and Chinese presence will e"entually su)side. China. ?he G. China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G. and China ma*in ains in the re ion in different sectors.hese fears ma" -e economicall" -ased2 . 6resident :arac* J)ama recently si ned an a reement with :ra.China . currency. .

:ur eonin research across the social and other sciences. S/ ?he result mi ht )e a conflict a*in to the -==>s :al*an wars#. arms races. the )ul* of whom are realists. nuclear proliferation and associated pre"enti"e wartemptations. S4 Mefensi"e realists maintain that the hi h e9pected costs of territorial conLuest. the security pro)lem is lar ely sol"ed as soon as offense and defense are clearly distin uisha)le. 'o.. &ndeed. S. there is no consensus on the net security effects of G. And concernin East Asia2 pessimismre ardin the re ion1s prospects without the American pacifier is prono nced. retrenchment that would intensif" sec rit" dilemmas. 6erhaps more important. which could sto!e a desta-ili+ing reaction from China. the prediction of post0 American tranLuility throu hout %urasia rests on the assumption that security is the only rele"ant state preference. each of these responses is nonetheless a wea*er ar ument for retrenchment than ad"ocates ac*nowled e. as noted a)o"e. withdrawal.realm of fighting for political infl ence% &t is odd to thin* that the Gnited States would need to compete for hemispheric dominance with a country on the other side of the lo)e. ?he contention that en a ed G.8. there are optimists and pessimists. +e ardin each re ion. then much of its )asis for optimism "anishes. . ?he first response flows from defensi"e realism as well as other international relations theories that discount the conflict0 eneratin potential of anarchy under contemporary conditions. For one thin . that mi ht i"e decisionma*ers pause )efore ma*in this )et. “Mon't Come Fome. 7ohn &*en)erry is the Al)ert 8.S. reducin their incenti"e to adopt solutions to their security pro)lems that threaten others and thus sto*e security dilemmas. +etrenchment would )e a )et on this scholarship. re ional ri"alries. howe"er. its core alliance commitments also deter states with aspirations to re A core premise of deep more ional he emony from contemplatin e9pansion and ma*e its partners more secure. 6a es S0H-.mitpress@ournals. howe"er. power dampens the )aleful effects of anarchy is consistent with influential "ariants of realist theory. <inter . )ut many dou)t %uropean o"ernments will pay the political costs of increased %G defense cooperation and the )ud etary costs of E rope that is incapa-le of sec ring itself from "arious threats that could )e desta)ili. and an array of policies and practices that can )e used credi)ly to si nal )eni n intent. particularly in re ions where the *inds of sta)ili. interest. who forecasts dan erous multipolar re ions replete with security competition./&S%C!a!>>->SP engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far dangero s lo)al sec rit" environment.<illiam C. 4S.S. lac*s capacity for lo)al security missions in which G. which ma*es sense i"en that the whole de)ate hin es on a comple9 future counterfactual (what would happen to %urasia1s security settin if the Gnited States truly disen a edR#. :roo*s is Associate 6rofessor of 8o"ernment at Martmouth Colle e. Col. Ar ua)ly the principal concern e9pressed )y area e9perts is that 7apan and So th ?orea are li!el" to o-tain a n clear capacit" and increase their military commitments. )ut two capture most of the "ariation: (-# G. and offense is e9tremely e9pensi"e relati"e to defense. First is re ional e9pertise.roo!s et al 1A NStephen 8. &t is nota)le that durin the Cold <ar. America: ?he Case a ainst +etrenchment”. ar ua)ly the scariest portrayal of the war0prone world that would emer e a)sent the “American 6acifier” is pro"ided in the wor*s of 7ohn $earsheimer. Fow do retrenchment ad"ocates. the Gnited States1 o"erseas presence i"es it the le"era e to restrain partners from ta*in pro"ocati"e action.S. Althou h a certain answer is impossi)le. and is "ulnera)le to the influence of outside risin powers.# pre"ention of ri"alry and conflict in %urasia is not a G.ers that nonrealist theories point toIsuch as democratic o"ernance or dense institutional lin*a esIare either a)sent or wea*ly present. defense dominance. security uarantees are not necessary to pre"ent dan erous ri"alries and conflict in %urasia2 or (.S.in within the re ion and )eyond (e. )oth South (orea and ?aiwan mo"ed to o)tain a nuclear weapons capacity and were only constrained from doin so )y astill0en a ed Gnited States. a re ional increasin military outlays.or /doi/a)s/->. %ach response is connected to a different theory or set of theories. Few e9perts e9pect a return of intense reat power competition in a post0 American %urope.S.S. with security defined narrowly in terms of protection from "iolent e9ternal attac*s on the homeland. leaders mi ht want %uropean participation. Mefensi"e realism1s optimism a)out what would happen if the Gnited States retrenched is "ery much dependent on itsparticularIand hi hly restricti"eI assumption a)out state preferences2 once we rela9 this assumption. <hat a)out the other parts of %urasia where the United States has a s -stantial militar" presenceR 3egarding the 5iddle East.--D. 4.srael2 Eg"pt2 and Sa di Ara-iaImight ta*e actions upon G. and e"en runs at re ional he emony and full0scale reat power war. 'eedless to say. Specifically. SH ?he second )ody of scholarship castin dou)t on the )et on defensi"e realism1s san uine portrayal is all of the research that undermines its conception of state preferences. ndermines . the )alance )e ins toswin toward pessimists concerned that states currently )ac*ed )y <ashin tonI nota)ly . <ohlforth is the Maniel <e)ster 6rofessor in the Mepartment of 8o"ernment at Martmouth Colle e.>-4. $il)an* 6rofessor of 6olitics and &nternational Affairs at 6rinceton Gni"ersity in the Mepartment of 6olitics and the <oodrow <ilson School of 6u)lic and &nternational Affairs. discount this )enefitR ?heir ar uments are complicated. Gnder that assumption. mean that %urasia1s ma@or states could mana e re ional multipolarity peacefully without theAmerican pacifier.http://www. Fe is also a 8lo)al %minence Scholar at (yun Fee Gni"ersity. ?here are three other ma@or )odies of scholarship. )ut China’s actions and increasing integration into the region tell s that s ch a scenario ma" one da" arise% >iven the proximit" and importance of Latin America to the United States2 this region co ld -e the s"m-olic -attle that -est meas res the contin ed hegemon" of the U%S% vers s China% US primac" prevents glo-al conflict – #ithdra#l ca ses a po#er vacc m that ca ses transition #ars in m ltiple places .

that core ass mption: states have preferences not only for security )ut also for prestige2 stat s2 and other aims. Jffensi"e realism predicts thatthe #ithdra#al of the American pacifier #ill "ield either a competiti"e re ional multipolarity complete #ith associated insecurity. and theyengage in trade-offs amon the "arious o)@ecti"es. SS &n sum. arms racin . SD &n addition. <e ha"e already mentioned the third. &t follows that e"en states that are relati"ely sec re may ne"ertheless engage in hi hly competitive -ehavior. possi)ly incl ding re ional reat power war#.S. G. e"en more alarmin )ody of scholarship. retrenchment #o ld res lt in a si nificant deterioration in the sec rit" environment in at least some of the world1s !e" regions. or )ids for re ional he emony. they define security not @ust in terms of territorial protection )ut in "iew of many and "aried milieu oals. crisis insta)ility. %mpirical studies show that this is indeed sometimes the case. ?o the de ree that these )odies of scholarly *nowled e ha"e predicti"e le"era e. nuclear proliferation 2 and the li*e. which may )e -e"ond the capacit" of local reat po#ers to contain (and which in any case would enerate intensely competiti"e )eha"ior. . a )et on a )eni n postretrenchment %urasia is a )et that leaders of ma@or countries will ne"er allow these nonsecurity preferences to influence their strate ic choices.

for e9ample. &t1s Fonduras and narrow )ore issues such as the G.S. Fu o Cha"e. recently released a new series of policy recommendations for the ne9t presidential administration.'.. :ut as they1"e fou ht )attles o"er small countries such as Cu)a and other countries li*e China and &ndia ha"e increased their economic presence and political influence in the re ion . has -een designated as a 0significant foreign narcotics traffic!er” )y the G. <hy the G. politically and strate ically.here are sec rit" and strategic ris!s in the region.)lo s.>>D. a respected national security thin* tan* a half0mile from the <hite Fouse.he U%S% m st em-ed its Latin America relations in the concept al frame#or! and strateg" that it has for the rest of the #orld .S. rather than @ust focus on human ri hts and de"elopment as it often does toward southern nei h)ors such as Cu)a. also clear that countries such as :ra. 6A3C.com/. Security Council and more representati"es in the hi her reaches of the <orld :an* and the &nternational $onetary Fund.nfl ence ?ills 'eg Latin America is critical for U%S% dominance glo-all" Sa-atini and . ?he S>0pa e “ rand strate y” report only contained a short para raph on :ra. in $arch of last year.S. . 4. leadin political scientist +andall Schweller to refer to :ra. :ra.” At a time of CperceivedG declining U%S% infl ence 2 it’s important that America deepens its ties #ith regional allies that might have -een once ta!en for granted% As emer in nations such as :ra.. sanctions on &ran two years a o. influence in the re ion and e"en on the world forum.S.il as “a risin spoiler.1s systematic deconstruction of the Cene. a left0win uerrilla roup )ased in Colom)ia.uela present their own challen es to G.>-. :ut calls for inter"ention. ?he Center for a 'ew American Spea*in in Santia o. re@ectin &ran and 'orth (orea flauntin international norms and re ional sta)ility. G.S.0Colom)ia free0trade a reement. and ro ue states li*e the need to shore p o r allies and recogni+e legitimate threats so th of the 3io >rande goes to the heart of the U%S%’ changing role in the #orld and its strategic interests #ithin it% Fere are three reasons why the U%S% m st incl de Latin America in its strategic calc lations: -.cnn.il and Cene. Another one of the :+&CS.erger 1$ NChristopher Sa)atini is the editor0in0chief of Americas Auarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. co ntries #ith emerging economies have appeared to -e ta!ing positions diametricall" opposed to the U%S% #hen it comes to matters of glo-al governance and h man rights./>D/-4/why0the0u0s0cant0afford0to0 i nore0latin0america/P <-ama called Latin America 0a region on the move21 one that is 0more important to the prosperity and security of the Gnited States than e"er )efore%1 Some)ody for ot to tell the <ashin ton )rain trust. ?he "iews in this article are solely those of Christopher Sa)atini and +yan :er er. :ra.il. And last year.one. &n . +ussia and China1s stance on Syria. http:// lo)alpu)licsLuare. Chile. tried to sta"e off the ti htenin of G. &f not. 6resident Security. narcotics traffic*ers and )order. <orse.Ext – China . officials and Batin America e9perts ha"e tended to treat the re ion as separate. we et it. &t1s time to understand that the U%S% isn’t the onl" co ntr" that has clo t in Latin America. $e9ican 6resident Felipe Calderln launched a contro"ersial “war on dru s” that has since resulted in the loss of o"er H>. the" co ld threaten to ndermine efforts to defend international norms and human ri hts. ?he relati"e calm south of the Gnited States seems to pale in comparison to other de"elopments in the world: China on a seemin ly ine"ita)le path to )ecomin a lo)al economic powerhouse.>>> li"es and increased the le"els of "iolence and .il also "oiced its official opposition to inter"ention in Bi)ya.'. Batin America is )ecomin more international. the" co ld -e a thorn in the side of the U%S% as it tries to implement its foreign polic" agenda.>-.S. an s. Ees. For far too lon . . o"ernment. transnational criminal syndicates are o"errunnin Central America. from the rest of the world. +yan :er er is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. At the same time. p rs ing a glo-al foreign polic" re: ires regional allies% +ecently. ?a*e.il and made only one passin reference to Batin America. the potential of political chan e in the $iddle %ast. can't afford to i nore Batin America.uelan state and alle ed ties )etween FA+C re)els and some of Cha"e.il clamor for permanent seats on the G. the U%S% #ill need to integrate them into glo-al decision-ma!ing rather than isolate them. ?oday. 7une . . the feared dismem)erment of the euro.1s senior officials ha"e created a "olatile coc*tail that could e9plode south of the G.

it won1t )e with or a ainst o"ernments I as it was in the -=3>s I )ut in the far more comple9. 5 Are such scenarios e9a (urlant. &f this trend continues. )ut to i"e its nei h)ours 0 from $on olia to Cietnam 0 a sta*e in its rise. pressure Asian capitals not to inter"ene if the GS and China went to war o"er ?aiwan. ?hese ha"e )een )oilerplate tal*in points since the early -==>s. Latin American and African nations are M sing . lead )y e9ample and attract other countries to do what it wants.” Au ust --. the Chinese diaspora. nli!e the US2 ChinaMs lang age of non-intervention in the affairs of other co ntries is MsoothingM to international ears.ran and North ?orea2 #here it is assem-ling a -loc that ref ses to o alon with the &estern approach to n clear proliferation.he direction of China's diplomatic drive is visi-le over issues such as . 5 Far"ard academic 7oseph 'ye coined the term 'soft power' more than a decade a o to denote a country's 'a)ility to shape the preferences of others'.corruption south of the $e9ican )order in 8uatemala.ic*'s analysis su ests not. &ncreasin ly. some Asian.ei/ing #o ld mo nt the challenge is not )y employin its military mi ht a ainst <ashin ton. i"en the solid )ases of China's unfoldin soft power. And throu h immi ration.ei/ing is also ta*in a *een interest in multilateral or anisations. “)ac*yard” that is outside )roader. &ndeed. 5 For e9ample.he &estern 'emisphere is a ma/or so rce of energ" that has the highest potential to serio sl" red ce dependence on 5iddle East s ppl". .ra:. Fonduras and e"en once0peaceful Costa +ica. writer for ?he Straits ?imes. i"en China's soft power. many of whose mem)ers ha"e )enefited tremendously from China's de"elopment. en"ironmental or la)our standards. these already0wea! states are finding themselves over#helmed -" the corr ption and violence that has come #ith the se of their territor" as a transit point for dr gs heading north% >iven their proximit" and close historical and political connections #ith &ashington2 the U%S% #ill find it increasingl" diffic lt not to -e dra#n in% Jnly this case. %l Sal"ador. )ut -" sing its economic strengths to spread across the #orld its soft po#er: the a)ility to mould the preferences of other countries without the threat or use of force.here are man" other reasons #h" Latin America is important to U%S% interests% .ei/ing as a hedge against American po#erM . to do#ngrade their close ties #ith the US . and they #arrant a rene#ed engagement #ith Latin America I a strategic pivot point for initiatives the U%S% #ants to accomplish else#here% <e need to stop thin*in of Batin America as the G. which are already employin it as a hed e.# ?he way .ic*. stic*y situation of failed states.t is a mar!et for more than $8_ of U%S% exports% <ith the nota)le e9ception of Cu)a.hailand .ei/ing is caref l not to ma!e its trade conditional on how well its partners li"e up to political. a "isitin scholar at the Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace in <ashin ton. China co ld MprodM co ntries s ch as the 4hilippines or . &t is usin its economic clout not so much to ma*e money from its partners. 5 &n optin for the e9ercise of soft power. 5 ?hen. in the free-trade agreements that it is p rs ing #ith co ntries from Chile to Ne# Realand2 . China is doin no more than what the GS itself has done since the end of <orld <ar &&: use its soft power to try to@ create a world to its li*in . says $r (urlant. it is nearly entirely o"erned )y democratically elected o"ernments I a point that ets repeated ad nauseum at e"ery possi)le re ional meetin . lo)al strate ic concerns. 4o#er is +ero.5 ?his )oo* pro"ides a "alua)le account of how China is creating -inding relationships #ith co ntries in regions as diverse as So th-east Asia2 Latin America and Africa. amon other factors.s m – Chinese infl ence destro"s American po#er Latif $88@ (Asad. and is portra"ing itself as a leader of the .hird &orld.5 :ei@in could also when the Cold <ar ended in the -==>s. &t a"ers that China 'has )e un creating an alternative pole to &estern democracies in international organisations and glo-al diplomac"M% ) . :ut the demands of the glo-e toda" are different. . is eratedR $r repa"ing its d es -" helping it to -oost its relations #ith . $ost countries welcome the non0conditional nature of their relationship with the world's foremost risin power.S.5 'ow. ?hat world "anished the Chinese have fo nd an opening in a #orld #here American soft po#er is #aning in the aftermath of the in"asion and occupation of .5 &ndeed. 5 . Batin America has close personal and cultural ties to the Gnited States. “A hard loo* at China's soft power.

his scenario #o ld constit te a serio s challenge to U%S% interests2 #ith potential to develop into a ne# Cold &ar.ei/ing is la"ing the gro nds on #hich to s pplant American po#er event all" Chinese encroachment harms U%S% interests Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er. 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J.ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E.5 De5.2 *irginia J<'N .3SS>.t s rel"2 .E3. Col.NAMS 6<3E.E3. C<3?E32 .S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. 6olicy Studies 7ournal.N.” HH &n a sense. ?he Fistorian.E32 Lo isiana) J.D *. 4<&E3MM . s)ha P ``N<.A3A .N S<U.S. Bi has pu)lished do.CA2) AS.' A5E3. ?he de ree to which increased Chinese power mi ht endan er G. 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism.... pSS. Asian 6erspecti"e. 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*. and chapters in se"eral )oo*s.C'A3D >% LU>A32 .ENJA5..htm# P2 'e"ertheless.A3.ennessee) . American 7ournal of Chinese Studies.=.S.<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t 3.S. the emergence of a ne# great po#er in an important region co ld intrinsicall" harm U%S% interests2 since relative American po#er and infl ence in that region might proportionatel" decline nless the United States expends more efforts and reso rces to co nteract the ne# pla"er.. -> &ssue ..co ntries #here the Chinese are settled%) Slo#l" . China is no lon er a “risin power”I)ut a “risen power. An adversarial U%S%-China relationship #o ld find .E( 9V the regionV’ is in reference to Latin America As a matter of fact.A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% . HD China’s infl ence in Latin America threatens US infl ence C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55.<NS ) J<SE4' 3% .<.>N 4<L. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science.N2 5ar"land J<'NN= .ei/ing sing its gro#ing strength in a p rposef l and s"stematic assa lt on U%S% interests2 as the 43C #o ld tend to vie# U%S% interests as -arriers to the achie"ement of the Chinese goals% .->>S/:F>.SA 5U3?<&S?.N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) . ->0-0$88F N“+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America”.llinois L.pdf.com/content/pdf/->.<IE32 California ..A5A2 .>N 3ELA.5 &E. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.C'2 <hio) . $assachusetts.>>H. some would ar ue that. Asian Affairs. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e.ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies.. other o)ser"ers contend that China poses a ) potential threat to U%S% infl ence and interests in the region% ) 6irst2 some maintain that -" presenting an alternative ) political and economic model--rapid economic gro#th and ) moderni+ation alongside political a thoritarianism--the 43C ) ndermines the U%S% agenda to advance political reform2 h man ) rights and free trade in the region%\EPi According to this ) vie#2 the Chinese model co ld help strengthen anti-democratic ) and anti-U%S% political .N<*. po.DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep.sprin er.SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<. interests could "ary reatly dependin on how :ei@in see*s to employ this power.A3AC? <. today.LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<.2 So th Carolina ) .A2 AND A63.CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www.C= AND ) [[S<6.lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'.N L% CA3D. http://lin*..2 Alas!a) 3<.EE <N 6<3E.

a human traffic*in operation run )y the Chinese or ani. that do not en'oy good relations with the #. The impact of China s activities varies in degree from to country.>-4 Jnline: http(DD###%peace.latin)usinesschronicle.ations may emer e.$.asp9Rid\-. U%S% allies co ld have reperc ssions in Latin America if China feels the #.latin)usinesschronicle.he principal challenge presented -" China in Latin America comes from the #a" in #hich the Chinese presence changes the strategic landscape of the region in #a"s that ma" generate pro-lems or complicating factors for f t re operations%) A n m-er of mem-ers of the tas! force noted that Chinese engagement #ith Latin America is ndermining the spread of democrac" and the U%S% agenda in the region% ?he Chinese model su ests that a society can lift itself out of po"erty usin a model of rowth that is not necessarily democratic. http://www. The ris!s to the region incl de reso rce c rse2 distorted development and environmental degradation due to a country lowering of environmental and social standards. has been important for partners.$. in Batin America2 http://www.C @ (Batin :usiness Chronicle.t China’s infl ence in the region is large and gro#ing . Chinese support. an important investor and an exporter of manufactured goods.he United States is Latin America’s traditional hegemonic po#er2 .com/app/article.S.. (. and to maintain a benign environment for its economic activities.com/app/article.asp9Rid\-.n this scenario2 China co ld se its h man and ) commercial infrastr ct re in the region to disr pt and distract ) the United States in the hemisphere% According to this vie#2 ) ChinaMs increased presence in the region co ld also provide the ) co ntr" #ith ne# opport nities to collect intelligence data ) against U%S% forces operating in the region%\EH\ China ainin he in completion for Batin America with GS 'ilton2 senior editor of ###%chinadialog e%net2 $81A (&sa)el.leaders and actors in some co ntries% ) Second2 according to some anal"sts2 ChinaMs regional presence ) ltimatel" co ld have significant strategic implications for ) the United States in the event of a possi-le militar" conflict ) #ith China% . .ilding%noDvarDe+flo#asiteDstorageDoriginalDapplicationD$Eff1a8ccAc8-EdFEH$cPaf-c8 FKaadH%pdfG . “China in Batin America: Fe emonic Challen eR” 'J+%F: Fe)ruary . @ust as the mana ement practices of Shou an Fierro 6eru )ecame a ma@or political issue for the 6eru"ian o"ernment.>. such as those )etween pandillas or narco0traffic*ers. $o far the two powers have sought cooperation rather than confrontation. is becoming too assertive in its China #ill se infl ence to challenge the U%S% in the region L. !espite its significant economic presence. China has been careful to "eep a low political and diplomatic profile to avoid antagonising the #.n several co ntries local man fact ring has s ffered from cheaper Chinese importsW several co ntries have -enefited from Chinese demand for reso rces2 others from large investments2 and China is having an important impact on the region’s infrastr ct re . &n :oli"ia.=S. China Gndermines G. . for e9ample. but rising tensions with (apan and %ietnam own )ast Asian bac"yard. primarily from four countries.. How far does China’s presence in the U%S% -ac!"ard represent a hegemonic challenge ? China is important in the region as a buyer of Latin American resources. 6otential colla)oration )etween e9istin criminal or ani. such as Cuba and %ene&uela. however. ?he acti"ities of the Chinese firm Andes 6etroleum )ecame the focus of "iolence )y indi enous acti"ists in ?arapoa.ation “+ed Mra on” came to taint le islators and others at the hi hest le"els of .#5 Chinese communities and Chinese capital will )ecome increasin ly si nificant in re ional politics.$.=S# .

he April $88E visit of Assistant Secretar" of State . in the conte9t of the lan ua e differences )etween Spanish0spea*in police and local security forces. :ahamas.S. can create new challen es. as well as the Chinese commercial presence at )oth ends of the strate ically important 6anama Canal and in the lar e container port in Freeport. Such collection opportunities include Chinese access to the Cu)an listenin post at :e@ucal. Such colla)oration. )ut could )e used in the future )y the Chinese state for intelli ence collection or other acti"ities .o"ernment. the Chinese presence is commercial. as can the emer ence of any “turf wars” associated with the introduction of new Chinese criminal or ani. &n each of these cases.he Chinese presence in Latin America #ill create increasing constraints to U%S% operations in the region% . and the new Chinese communities in the re ion.ations into territory pre"iously occupied )y Batin American roups.homas Shannon to .he ph"sical Chinese presence #ill also give China ne# opport nities to collect intelligence data against U%S% forces operating in the region2 #hich co ld provide val e to China sho ld the c rrent -enign nat re of the U%S%-China relationship change. &t also includes the concession ranted to Futchison <hampoa to run the %cuadorian port of $anta. where an important G. 5 . Forward Jperatin Bocation (FJB# is located.ei/ing to tal! a-o t Latin America implicitl" recogni+ed that China no# has a 0seat at the ta-le1 in Latin American affairs that the United States m st ta!e into acco nt%) .

not e"ery nation is consumed )y a counternarcotics campai n.” 'ational Security <atch. ?he humanitarian relief/ rescue.. noncom)at operations focus ()oth in eLuippin /sales and trainin # Gnited States military has le"els of e9pertise.or /pu)lications/ilw/ilw!pu)s/nationalsecuritywatch/Mocuments/'S <!-. States2 howe"er. ?his is an opportunity for the Gnited States to focus on the non0*inetic aspects of its new defense uidance. :y )ein an attenti"e and responsi"e security partner that demonstrates a "aluation of relationships o"er material.(4#. $ore @oint trainin e9ercises. 'ational Security Analyst with AGSA's &nstitute of Band <arfare.Ext – .ausa. $e9ico and Colom)ia may "ery well need continued hard0power0related resourcin and support from the Gnited ?he second )enefit is a su)set of the Gnited States counterin Chinese military presence in Batin America. the United States can contrast itself to China in terms of relia)ility.04!we). the Gnited States can properly conte9tuali.oosting U%S% infl ence !e" to solve heg Schaffer 1$ (Mou las 7. ?he e"en cy)ersecurity reLuirements are @ust as "alid for South and Central American nations. http://www. 7uly. capacity )uildin and A tailored approach will let the Gnited States le"erage its militar" as an instit tion rather than / st as a force .S.ncreasing .e and tailor its militar" efforts with Batin America. e9perience and professionalism in many functional areasIsuch as lo istics or personnelIthat China cannot more officer em)eddin and e9chan es. lon e"ity and lon 0term aims for each nation . “Bin*in Batin America and the 6acific: A Strate y for the Bon ?erm. more professional education and more will show G.pdf# :y ta*in a nation0)y0nation approach. -. disaster response. allies that the Gnited States ta*es seriously the nuances of each nation and will force the Gnited States to pay more than lip ser"ice to the non0counterterror aspects of its strate ic uidance.nfl ence !$ Solve . -3 match.

and criminal anarchy. ->/. 6eru1s Sendero Buminoso calls "iolent and destructi"e acti"ities that facilitate the processes of state failure “armed propa anda. Army colonel and an Ad@unct 6rofessor of &nternational 6olitics at Mic*inson Colle e. star"ation. criminality. :JB&CA+&A' SJC&AB&S$. ?he ar ument in eneral is that failin and failed state status is the )reedin round for insta)ility . ?hey can host “e"il” networ*s of all *inds.nfl ence . Jfficials in Ar entina.3. and terrorism. intimidation. +etired G. also understands that the process leadin to state failure is the most dan erous lon 0term security challen e facin the lo)al community today.//>H. C%'%TG%BA1S FG8J CFmC%T.from e9ports to $e9ico.N=P Misinterest in economic reform.or /research/reports/.D. these conditions spawn all *inds of thin s people in eneral do not li*e such as murder. the recruitment and use of child soldiers. ?hese conditions )reed massi"e humanitarian disasters and ma@or refu ee flows . p .D4 ?hus. considers these actions to )e steps that must )e ta*en to )rin a)out the political conditions necessary to esta)lish Batin American socialism for the . .ad – Sta-ilit" Chinese dominance ca ses Latin American insta-ilit" Johnson 8F NStephen 7ohnson is Senior 6olicy Analyst for Batin America in the Mou las and Sarah Allison Center for Forei n 6olicy Studies. traffic*in in women and )ody parts. a di"ision of the (athryn and Shel)y Cullom Ma"is &nstitute for &nternational Studies. and destruction of infrastructure. disease. and $e9ico ha"e si naled their 8rowin trade deficits. and conflict.il ha"e mo"ed )eyond raw materials e9ports. ?hese means of coercion and persuasion can spawn further human ri hts "iolations. $e9ican 6resident Cicente Fo9 made it clear to "isitin 6resident Fu 7intao that dumpin electronics and clothin was unaccepta)le. at ?he Ferita e Foundation. #hich contri. Jcto)er . unease a)out trade with such a hot competitor. re ional conflict.S. A'M ASE$$%?+&C <A+FA+%.>>H.pdf# ?he &ssue of State Failure.S.4. *idnappin .f these co ntries fail to adopt reforms2 social ine: alit" and political insta-ilit" could depress G. ethnic cleansin . $ore specifically. whether they in"ol"e criminal )usiness enterprise.” ChU"e. e9ports to the re ion and increase migration pro-lems. torture..tes to trade deficits . traffic*in and proliferation of con"entional weapons systems and <$M.:alancin China's 8rowin &nfluence in Batin America. po"erty.-st century. others with powerful presidents or rulin oli archies may )e tempted to fall )ac* on plantation economics. $oreo"er2 s ch narro#l" foc sed economies are v lnera-le to do#nt rns in commodit" prices% Some // percent of Batin Americans already li"e )elow the po"erty line. desta)ili. :ra. insur ency.” Mru cartels operatin throu hout the Andean +id e of South America and elsewhere call these acti"ities “)usiness incenti"es. 0 6resident ChU"e. corruption. the 6+C ma*es . Chinese goods are made -" la-orers #ho #or! for one-third of the #ages of Latin American co nterparts and who tolerate worse wor*in conditions.il. &n Septem)er . these actions are usually unconfined and spill o"er into re ional syndromes of po"erty. http://www.ation. narco0traffic*in .herita e. in addition to helpin to pro"ide wider latitude to further their tactical and operational o)@ecti"es.China . For e"ery dollar that $e9ico ma*es from e9ports to China. &ncome aps )etween the rich and poor may widen as a result. At the same time. Latin American insta-ilit" ca ses glo-al #ar 5an#aring 8F ($a9 8. Some analysts )elie"e that the commodities0 )ased trade model used )y China #ill ndermine the progress that Latin America has made to#ard ind striali+ation% <hile countries li*e Chile and :ra. 6G:D. warlordism. state and nonstate actors1 strate ic efforts are aimed at pro ressi"ely lessenin a tar eted re ime1s credi)ility and capa)ility in terms of its a)ility and willin ness to o"ern . enocide.>>H/->/)alancin 0chinas0 rowin 0 influence0in0latin0americaP Latin American leaders #ho sign trade and investment deals #ith the 43C ha"e noticed that ChinaMs exports are more afforda-le than their own oods. or some form of ideolo ical crusade such as :oli"arianismo.>>H.

one can rest assured that ChU"e.ChU"e.1s intent is to focus his primary attac* politically and psycholo ically on selected Batin American o"ernments1 a )ility and ri and de"elop its national territory and society. of course. or new people1s democracies. and leadership at any i"en opportunity. criminal states. failin and failed states )ecome dysfunctional states. the more they and their associated pro)lems endan er lo)al security. narco0states. insta)ility and the threat of su)"ertin or destroyin such a o"ernment are real. ?he tendency is that the )est moti"ated and )est armed or ani. Gntil a i"en populace enerally percei"es that its o"ernment is dealin with these and other )asic issues of political. and lac* of upward mo)ility limit the ri ht and the a)ility of a i"en re ime to conduct the )usiness of the state.D/ :ut failin and failed states simply do not o away . disenfranchisement. arms. and narco0states and people1s democracies persist. &n that conte9t. ht to o"ern. po"erty. &n connection with the creation of new people1s democracies. he understands that popular perceptions of corruption. peace. and social in@ustice fairly and effecti"ely. criminal. the lon er dysfunctional. ro ue states. And. Cirtually anyone can ta*e ad"anta e of such an unsta)le situation. and prosperity. economic. As a conseLuence.ation on the scene will control that insta)ility. and his :oli"arian populist allies will )e a"aila)le to pro"ide money. ro ue.DH .

<hile telecom. manufactured products. .t also limits the /o. and Chinese 6resence in the +e ion.” ?his occurs when the success of commodity e9ports raises the currency. 8oin )ac* to a comparison with the Gnited States.D/chinas0economic0role0in0 latin0america/P do#nsides also exist./->/.>-.S[ of the re ion1s Latin America’s exports to the U%S% are more diversified and remain fairl" -alanced so it is -etter s ited to s rvive a possi-le commodit" c t-off in Batin America.the economic val e-added chain matters for the long term. and Colom)ia since the -=3>s. Anecdotal e"idence points to est economiesIsi nificant. and 6eru. finance. Commodit" dependenc" leaves co ntries more v lnera-le to glo-al commodit" price s#ings. another -. ?he indirect effects of China’s rise have also ca sed pro)lemsIespecially throu h the “D tch disease.opport nities for the gro#ing n m-er of ed cated2 r-an2 and am-itio s people7the ne# middle class% Chinese trade ca ses commodit" overdependence – !ills Latin Economies Cerna 11 N$ichael. ?he re ate trade data shows Latin American prod cers losing #orld mar!et share to China% Still. estimates su est this head to head competition occurs in rou hly -. e9ports are raw materials. .il (and helps account for the decline in manufacturin production as a percent of e9ports# it may also )e happenin in Cene. Economic relations are dependent on often nsta-le commodit" mar!et demands. :ut China’s press re on its trading partners threatens to ndo these gains.net/chinas0 rowin 0presence0in0latin0america0implications0 for0u0s0and0chinese0presence0in0the0re ion/P China’s commodit"--ased trade str ct re is currently lucrati"e. China's 8rowin 6resence in Batin America: &mplications for G. //-H/--. one can see a manufacturin sur e in $e9ico. it does not enco rage diversification of Latin America’s exports into more "alue0added oods.nfl ence ?ills EconDSta-ilit" China #ill exert press re on trade partners – !ills cooperation <’Neil 1$ NShannon.uela. Ar entina.D/-.il. the Gnited States continues to )e the lar est )uyer. and ma!es it harder to plan and implement long-term policies as a res lt% . $any ar ue that this has occurred in :ra. and a percent of e9ports from Batin America1s )i )oth in home mar*ets as well as a)road in the Gnited States and the %uropean Gnion.->/. .chinacenter. Boo*in at the )rea*down of e9ports. with a />[ share. http://)lo s.hese same imports that ma!e cons mers happ" hit the econom" at large. +ou hly .he" directly compete #ith Latin American prod cers.China . http://www.[ consists of resource0)ased oods and D>[ is manufactured products.cfr.or /oneil/. )ut not e"erywhere. China +esearch Center. &hether or not Latin America can continue to clim.S. (aren 6oniachi* of Batin ?rade also sees enormous ris*s for the re ion: “ . retail and other ser"ices. while China accounts for D. Senior Fellow for Batin America Studies.Ext. China1s %conomic +ole in Batin America. and modern ser"ices. :ra..he steep overval ation of the region’s c rrenciesId e in part to the flood of investment flo#s and export proceeds I . U%S% investment in the re ion is far more diversified and spans a ran e of val e-added activities2 includin manufacturin . J"er the last few decades man" )oth s ccessf ll" opened their economies and di"ersified their production. ma*in it harder for manufacturin companies to compete internationally.he )i er #orr" for Latin American co ntries is that the" are losing their hard fo ght gains. factories closin ./[ of the re ion1s total e9ports.

and a specialist on )usiness in Asia. the report concludes that the most v lnera-le co ld have -een negativel" affected as a res lt of the Chinese-led expansion% . #ho is reall" -enefiting from the Chinese economic -oomY . a day (a)out 4/[ of the population#. and where.Y Ma"i warns.S/-Vlan ua e!id\Y3ight G no#2 Latin America is -enefitting from the strong gro#th rate of China2 which )uys a reat amount of the raw materials that it needs from the re ion.edu/ara)ic/article. professor of law at the %SAM% )usiness school. 2ov 3.he so" ind str" is a case in point% &hile China has helped So th AmericaMs so"-ean ind stries expand their access to glo-al mar!ets2 fe# -enefits have gone to r ral comm nities% Despite rising prod ction2 emplo"ment and #ages have decreased #ith the proliferation of high-vol me monoc lt re farming% For e9ample. ?his co ld in t rn f el its alread" high level of overdependence on commodities %1 Long term Latin America #ill s ffer -" Chinese investment &harton2 >rad ate School of .he Latin co ntries #o ld s ffer%O products that the other NChinaP needs.Y Ma"i )elie"es that this co ld lead to pro-lems over the long term if China slows down and reduces its demand for raw materials. while :ra.wharton. accordin to G' fi ures. &n such a case. siness at Upenn2 $811 (*A $trong !ependence+.upenn. Fe)ruary -Dth .u*/ lo)al0de"elopment/po"erty0 matters/.cfmRarticleid\. over the long term it floods the mar!ets of Latin America #ith its cheap man fact red prod cts2 #ith #hich the regionMs ind str" cannot compete . uardian.tion2 a . &n the past decade.>--.Y notes 7aume 8inaMa"i. employment in the sector actually shran*. copper and soy O mostly non0la)our intensi"e products that are unli*ely to ha"e a )i positi"e impact on the poor. O<ver the short term2 this is a good thing2 . &n fact.>>=. http://www. -3= million people still li"e on less than . Y. So" prod ction has also -een lin!ed to the deforestation of F$P2888 s: !m of the . Batin America has ta*en reat strides in liftin millions out of po"erty.t over the long term2 not so m ch so . :ut YChina )uys raw materials and land in order to supply itself.nvestments in Latin America/ 0harton. )ut At -est2 Chinese expansion in Latin America onl" -enefits the extremel" #ealth" – it ca ses povert"2 nemplo"ment2 and environmental damage ?ell" 11 (Annie (elly. )ecause this sit ation is creating a strong dependence on China in So th American co ntries% Y5 At the moment.tion in the #orld . Yyou can say that these are complementary economies.nstead of #or!ing to#ards -etter #ealth distri.ra+ilian Ama+on rainforest% A research pro@ect )ac*ed )y the &nstitute of Me"elopment Studies and the :ritish Academy is loo*in into the lin*s )etween .>--/fe)/-D/china0latin0america0trade0)enefit# in a continent ne: al income distri.. The -otential !ownside to China+s .>>/ report )y the Batin America/Cari))ean and Asia/6acific %conomics and :usiness Association warned that Chinese expansion co ld act all" have a detrimental impact on the v lnera-ilit" and excl sion of the poor from economic activit"% &t ar ued that ChinaMs expansion into the region has -een f elled -" the need for agric lt ral and extractive reso rces O ener y oil reser"es. 4566 http://*nowled e.is eroding the competitiveness of its hi her0"alue added oods and ser"ices. “<ho really )enefits from China's trade with Batin AmericaR”.co. <riter for ?he 8uardian and specialist in lo)al human ri hts and social affairs. )ecause one of them NBatin AmericaP produces the primary their trade relationship is as"mmetrica l.ilian soy production Luadrupled )etween -==H and . so Latin America #inds p -eing damaged a great deal . 1nline. Eet #ith the most iron ore.

and not the Chinese. Ar entina's economy is now hea"ily reliant on its annual . must )e the ones who ta*e steps to ensure the )usiness )oom translates into meanin ful impro"ement in the li"es of the most "ulnera)le. &t is not a relationship it can afford to lose. he does )elie"e this can chan e. Ultimatel"2 3en#ic! -elieves the c rrent model of expansion is nli!el" to prove a positive model for povert" red ction for Latin AmericaMs 1PH million poor% Fowe"er.-. million tonnes of soya oil from Ar entina citin safety concerns. +esearchers in 6eru ha"e found that Chinese companies runnin state or pri"ate enterprises ha"e little meanin ful or positi"e en a ement with local communities or la)our or anisations. . China suspended an order for more than . Neil 3en#ic!2 a niversit" professor of glo-al sec rit" at Coventr" Universit"2 is one of the researchers leadin the pro@ect.n man" #a"s2 the Chinese approach Lin Latin AmericaN reflects the high price the LChineseN people have paid for development2 for example2 #ith regard to povert"2 ine: alit"2 corr ption or the environment2O he says.Chinese )usiness in Batin America and the *noc*0on impact on poor communities.H)n soy e9ports to China.ei/ingMs approach in Latin America is indicative of its domestic approach to development% O. Fe sa"s that . ChinaMs determination to ta!e advantage of the spending po#er of Latin AmericaMs emerging middle classes thro gh flooding local mar!ets #ith cheap Chinese goods co ld also affect the gro#th of domestic man fact ring2 often vital to gro#ing local emplo"ment and income opport nities and to red cing povert"% Bast year Ar entina fell foul of China when it announced it planned to impose a ta9 on cheap Chinese shoes to protect local producers. Fe says that Batin American o"ernments.

on alone .ad – Environment China leverages economic infl ence to destro" the environment &atts AD$@/-4 (7onathan 0 Asia %n"ironment Correspondent for ?he 8uardian.>--.” H0H. &n . .mport-Export .t the" have a common ca se( gro#ing Chinese demand for regional commodities% ?he world1s most populous nation has @oined the ran*s of wealthy countries in %urope.northern. http://www.China . <hile the distri)ution has "aried enormously from country to country.>>>.nter-American .edu/en/chinas0e9ploitation0of0latin0american0natural0 resources0raises0concern/# Ama+onian forest cleared in %cuador. Ar entina is see*in similar treatment.on rain forest.hese recent reports of environmental degradation in Latin America ma" -e tho sands of miles apart in different co ntries and for different prod cts2 .il and oil fields nder development in Cene. a mountain le"elled in 6eru.-> )illion in . 'orth America and %ast Asia that ha"e lon consumed and polluted unsustaina)ly.)illion. “+ain Forest Mepletion. this helped Batin America a"oid the worst of the financial and economic crises that ripped much of the de"eloped world and pro"ided e9tra re"enue for po"erty alle"iation pro rammes that ha"e eased the re ion1s notorious ineLuality. which ha"e )een una)le to access international capital mar*ets since defaultin .htm# ?here are some really ama.unu.an! com-ined% 5ost of this has gone to fo r primar" exporters 7 *ene+ ela2 .edu/ntdanford/)io-/+A&'FJ.uela and %cuador. 3epa"ments to China are g aranteed -" long-term commodit" sales2 #hich means a commitment to p sh ahead #ith reso rce exploitation 7 often #ith dire conse: ences for the environment and indigeno s comm nities% 0China is shopping #orld#ide for nat ral reso rces% &e’re in the midst of a process of commodit" acc m lation -" them% .t has since challenged the government of 4resident 3afael Correa% 'e estimates his co ntr"’s de-ts to China at USQ1@ -illion% . ?his has led to what author $ichael ? (lare calls “a race for what1s left” and its impact is particularly e"ident in the continent with much of the untapped. A st d" last "ear -" Enri: e D ssel 4eters2 a professor at the National A tonomo s Universit" of 5exico2 fo nd that the region has -een the leading destination for Chinese foreign direct investment 7 mostl" for ra# materials and -" -ig government-r n companies s ch as Chinalco and CN<<C% Since the $88P financial crisis2 China has also -ecome the main lender to the region% . unspoiled natural resources.ra+il2 Argentina and Ec ador 7 for mining or transport infrastr ct re% ?he economic )enefits ha"e )een enormous./.n $8182 it provided USQA@ -illion CZ$K -illionG in loans 7 more than the &orld . )ut man fact rers complain of a flood of cheap Chinese imports that ndermine their competitiveness% Extinction <’Neal H@ ($artin. ha"e recei"ed hefty loans from China.an! and the US .uela1s Jrinoco )elt% . “China1s e9ploitation of Batin American natural resources raises concern. &t also played a ma@or part in )olsterin left0leanin o"ernments that are see*in an alternati"e to neo0li)eral prescriptions from <ashin ton and <all Street.w"net. ?he Ama. :ut i"in up one *ind of dependency can lead to another. ?rade )etween China and Batin America was @ust GS. it had sur ed to GS.” ?he 8uardian.in facts a)out the Ama. the Cerrado sa"annah con"erted to soy fields in :ra. http://ourworld. %"en more than Africa.an!2 . Batin America has )ecome a ma@or focus of :ei@in 1s dri"e for commodities.n that context2 the" lend mone" to Ec ador and the government pa"s #ith oil thro gh anticipated sales% &e have committed sales to them p ntil $81H21 said Al-erto Acosta2 #ho served as energ" minister . Cene.he lopsided nat re of ChinaLatin America trade is also : estioned -eca se #hile it is good in terms of >D4 : antit"2 it has not -een so -eneficial in developmental : alit"% Commodity suppliers are deli hted at the Chinese demand for their e9ports.nfl ence .

.. )ut host a)out H>0 =>[ of the plant and animal population of the entire world. so we see that this can not *eep happenin with out some type of o"ernin on what is occurrin . . in the past four decades that num)er was reduced in half to the current fi ure.on +i"er has more species of fish than the entire Atlantic Jcean does. million acres seems li*e a "ery lar e num)er. +ain forests co"er a)out S[ of the %arth1s surface. ?he Ama. A tree found in 6eru was found to )e the host to /4 different species of ants.H[ of these plants are now used to com)at cancer.co"ers H/[ of all the world1s rain forests. S>[ of these plants ha"e anti0cancerous properties. A fact that is "ery hi hly re arded a)out the Ama. ?here are more species of )irds on a 6eru reser"e than the entire Gnited States has. million acres and = countries.on rain forest is that of the 4>>> species of plants that ha"e )een disco"ered there. <e can say this )ecause trees produce o9y en while they use car)on dio9ide to maintain their respiration. Also. Althou h -. So as human*ind continues to har"est the Ama.on rain forest which co"ers -. they should also try to consider the de"astatin effects that it is ha"in on our race alon with all the )iolo ical effects that it also carries. &f it does #e ma" -ecome an endangered species.H acres of rain forest there are more species of trees than the entire continent of 'orth America. thus ma!ing it literall" the l ngs of the Earth. &n less than ..

Chinese loans tend to o into ener y and infrastructure pro@ects in a re ion that has an annual infrastructure ap of . there would hardly ha"e )een any fanfare a)out a Chinese "isit to the re ion. and pose a real challen e to the way western0)ac*ed de"elopment )an*s do )usiness.>>3.hat is more than the &orld . 'either do Chinese loans come with the harsh strin s attached to &F& finance. and sometimes si n oil sale a reements that reLuire nations to send oil to China in e9chan e for the loans instead of local currency. 4rod cing nat ral reso rce--ased commodities also -rings ma/or environmental ris!% 5an" of ChinaMs iron2 so" and copper pro/ects are fo nd in Latin AmericaMs most environmentall" sensitive areas% . No#2 for . rather than with what western de"elopment e9perts say they YneedY.” ?he 8uardian. )ut it )rin s new ris*s.co. Chinese trade and in"estment is partly a )lessin for Batin America )ecause it di"ersifies the sources of finance O finance that for too lon has relied on the west. <hereas the GS and international financial institutions (&F&s# such as the <orld :an* and &$F tend to finance in line with the latest de"elopment fads such as trade li)eralisation and micro0 anti0po"erty pro rammes. and trade with China has tu ed Batin American rowth rates to impressi"e le"els. they ha"e reLuired that )orrowers contract Chinese firms. Chinese finance in Batin America O chiefly from the China Me"elopment :an* and the %9port0&mport :an* of China O is sta erin ly lar e and rowin . Chinese in"estment accentuates the deindustrialisation of Batin America. )uy Chinese eLuipment. the ris*s may ta*e away many of the rewards. Wi 7inpin . countries could come closer to their de"elopment oals.nter-American Development . uardian. collea ues and & estimate that. 'e"ertheless. capital intensi"e commodities production is not "ery employment0intensi"e. the positi"e side. China trades @ust as much in Batin America as in Africa.D>)n.>>H. Chinese finance is more in tune with what Batin American nations want.. tra"els to the GS and Batin America this wee*. “Batin America playin a ris*y ame )y welcomin in the Chinese dra on. nor does it lin* well with other sectors of an economy.[ increase in Batin American rowth.Ext – ?ills Enviro Chinese economic infl ence damages !e" environmental areas – Ama+on2 Andes >allagher FD1A/.an! have provided to the region d ring the same period% China's presence is a reat opportunity for Batin America. Bar e scale. :ut there are ris*s.. %"ery -[ increase in Chinese rowth is correlated with a -. for the first time since he too* office in $arch. since . those uidelines are not on par #ith $1st cent r" standards for development -an!ing% Stronger standards sho ld -e in place at a time #hen . ?he GS and %uropean economies ha"e )een anaemic since . &n a recently updated report. <hat a difference a decade ma*es. &f the re ion can sei.ra+il2 Chile and others2 China is the most important trade and investment partner% China-Latin America trade s rpassed Q$F8-n CZ1EF-nG last "ear% Althou h China's impact in Africa recei"es the most attention.>-4/may/4>/latin0 america0ris*y0chinese0dra on# ?he Chinese president. ?he &F&s are notorious for their YconditionalitiesY that ma*e )orrowers si n up to austerity and structural ad@ustment pro rammes that ha"e had Luestiona)le outcomes on rowth and eLuality in the re ion. Mependence on commodities can cause a Yresource curseY where the e9chan e rate appreciates such that e9porters of manufacturin and ser"ices industries can't compete in world mar*ets O and thus contri)ute to deindustrialisation and economic "ulnera)ility.e the new opportunities that come with Chinese finance.n areas s ch as the Ama+on and the Andean highlands2 conflict over nat ral reso rces2 propert" rights and s staina-le livelihoods have -een rife for decades% &n our report. ?en years a o. <hile the Chinese do not attach policy conditions to their loans. and has more in"estments in the re ion. if Batin American nations don't channel this new trade and in"estment toward lon 0term rowth and sustaina)ility. Fowe"er. we find that Chinese -an!s act all" operate nder a set of environmental g idelines that surpass those of their western counterparts when at China's sta e of de"elopment.>-4 ((e"in 0 professor of international relations at :oston Gni"ersity V co0director of the 8lo)al %conomic 8o"ernance &nitiati"e.an! or the . China has provided loan commitments of more than QPE-n to Latin American co ntries% . First. http://www.u*/ lo)al0de"elopment/po"erty0matters/.

eLuality and en"ironmental protection. Q<e1re here to tell the )i in"estors that they don1t ha"e our permission to e9ploit our land.on0rainforest0land0to0chinese0oil0companies/# . <ith e"ery opportunity comes a challen e. not @ust in"estors from China. “China/Batin America: %cuador to sell Ama. since . &n addition. Q<e1re loo*in for lo)al in"estors.. As well as loanin money China has in"ested in two ma@or hydroelectric infrastructure pro@ects and is in tal*s to fund a 4>[ sta*e in a .his swathe of land amo nts to nearl" half of the total rainforest that falls #ithin Ec adorean -orders% Bast wee* %cuadorean politicians tra"elled to :ei@in to pitch )iddin contracts to representati"es of state0owned companies such as China 6etrochemical and China 'ational Jffshore Jil. Qfree. :ut that1s not our policy. Q<hat the o"ernment1s )een sayin as they ha"e )een offerin up our land is not true2 they ha"e not consulted us.1 &ndeed 2 as of s mmer $81$ Ec ador #as inde-ted to China to the t ne of over Q@-n2 #hich is more than a tenth of the co ntr"’s >D4.co. http://www.he" claim that the" #ere not cons lted a-o t the pro/ect2 #hich #ill threaten their land and #a" of life% An open letter written )y an association of indi enous roups pleaded. 3eliance on Chinese trade ca ses massive ecological damage in the Ama+on and violation of rights of indigeno s peoples – Ec ador proves 4o#ell KD18/-4 (Felena O &nternational Affairs writer at 6ulsamerica.-. Q<e are entitled )y law.1 Despite the government’s assertions critics are not convinced of the explanation2 pointing instead to Ec ador’s extreme financial reliance on China% Adam R c!erman2 an environmental and h man rights campaigner at Ama+on &atch2 said2 95" nderstanding is that this is more of a de-t iss e – it’s -eca se the Ec adoreans are so dependent on the Chinese to finance their development that the"’re #illing to compromise in other areas s ch as social and environmental reg lations% ?he messa e that they1re tryin to send to international in"estors is not in line with reality. if we wanted.environmental concerns are at an all-time high.on rainforest to Chinese.he Ec adorean government is reportedl" a ctioning off Am hectares of the Ama+onian rainforest for oil exploration pro/ects f nded -" Chinese oil companies% . R c!erman also dre# attention to China’s voracio s appetite for energ" leading the co ntr" to circ mvent its o#n g idelines% . also resident in %cuador. they mi ht present the winnin )ids.1 Fa)ara also claimed that the contracts were a"aila)le to )idders other than China.u*/. criticised the indi enous roups as ha"in . 'o#ever the deal is provo!ing vocal opposition from seven different indigeno s gro ps #ho live on the land% . prior and informed consent1 from nati"e tri)es )efore appro"in oil acti"ities on their land. Accordin to 'arcisa $arshienta.>-4/>//->/chinalatin0america0ecuador0plans0to0sell0 off0ama. &n a )iddin process.1 She added.he r ctions ca sed -" the pro/ect coincide #ith .” 6ulsamerica. this new source of finance could )rin reat ris*.1 Such action on the part of the %cuadorean o"ernment would )e in contra"ention of international law. Qthat pu)lic and pri"ate oil companies across the world do not participate in the )iddin process that systematically "iolates the ri hts of se"en indi enous nationalities )y imposin oil pro@ects in their ancestral territories. o"ernments must ha"e.>>= the two countries ha"e )een en a ed in a Qmoney0for0oil1 arran ement. and defended the o"ernment1s actions sayin .H)n oil refinery in %cuador. to o in )y force and do some acti"ities e"en if they are a ainst them. where China loans %cuador )illions of dollars in return for su)sidised oil. Accordin to the rulin . Qa political a enda1. Andras Monoso Fa)ara. as decreed )y the &nter0American Court on Fuman +i hts last year durin a case in"ol"in the protection of the lands of the Saraya*u roup. :ut of course Chinese companies are really a ressi"e. economic di"ersification. &f Batin America doesn't channel some of the finance to support macroeconomic sta)ility.f China -id for2 and #ins2 the contract it #ill violate its ne# investment protocol2 #hich promises to act in the interest of the local comm nit" and environment% .pulsamerica.1 %cuador1s secretary for hydrocar)ons. Batin Americans ha"e access to a new source of finance that i"es them more leeway to meet their own de"elopment oals. a women1s leader of the Shuar people.

>>-.on near the %cuadorean )order has )een home to oil fields operated )y the Ar entinean company 6luspetrol since .environmental pro-lems in neigh-o ring 4er 2 res lting from oil poll tion% . and the area has -ecome so poll ted that the 4er vian government has -een forced to declare an environmental state of emergenc"% .he 4asta+a river -asin in the northern Ama.

and >o#a (-==3# find no relation -et#een a poor econom" and U%S% se of force. Furthermore.>->. Furthermore. for e9ample. e%g% treas r" -onds. NHP Jn the other hand.>>. 6ordham (-==3a. lar e sta*e in the G. MCM players. there are still clear nation0centric responses to China's risin economic power.S. Colume S. . 'onetheless.-H Fypothesis . o"ernin elite's ideolo ical commitment to national security. and microwa"es o"ens. Eet. with all its internal contradictions.M. Jstrom and 7o) (-=3D#. )oth as a holder of )onds and as the leadin e9porter of oods to the G.S.# report that G. 'o#ever. -==3)#.hese res lts s ggest that em-attled leaders . Similarly.S. “?erritorial Mi"ersion: Mi"ersionary ?heory of <ar and ?erritorial Conflict”.>>H# and 3 ssett and <neal (. Gni"ersity of &llinois at Gr)ana0 Champai n and is an Associate 6rofessor in the Mepartment of &nternational Affairs at the Gni"ersity of 8eor ia. Ythe G. note that the li!elihood that a U%S% 4resident #ill se force is ncertain2 as the -ad econom" might create incentives -oth to divert the p -lic’s attention #ith a foreign advent re and to foc s on solving the economic pro-lem2 th s red cing the inclination to act a-road. &n contrast and more in line with my findin s of a si nificant relationship (in $odels 4O/#.he #ea! res lts are not altogether s rprising given the findings from prior literat re% &n accordance with the insi nificant relationships of $odels -O. ?he 7ournal of 6olitics. &n manufacturin China has displaced the GS in so many areas. and other enterprises. . “Meclinin GS Fe emony and +isin Chinese 6ower: A Formula for ConflictR”. ar ue that economic recessions are lin*ed with forceful action )y an incum)ent G. and HOD. has )loc*ed se"eral lar e scale Chinese in"estments and )uyouts of oil companies. for e9ample. includin )ecomin the num)er one producer of steel and e9porter of four0fifths of all of the te9tile products in the world and two0thirds of the world's copy a significant portion of this man fact ring is still o#ned -" foreign companies2 incl ding U%S% firms li!e >eneral 5otors.>>3# find a clearer lin* )etween economic underperformance and increased attac*s on domestic ethnic minorities.thus recei"es stron support "ia the unpopularity "aria)le )ut only wea* support "ia the economic rowth "aria)le. <hile none of these wor*s has focused on territorial di"ersions. . De3o en (-==H#. especially as an e9pression of the G. it still is the leading economic po#er in the #orld. China is also the largest holder of U%S% foreign reserves.>>S# report some si nificant associations. use of force di"erts the pu)lic1s attention from a poor economy.his ma" -e one of the reasons mitigating f ll--lo#n conflict #ith the U%S% no#. as does +ussett (-==>#I)ut only for the Gnited States2 slow rowth does not affect the )eha"ior of other countries.# re"ision of 8owa1s (-==3# analysis shows some effect of a )ad economy and Me+ouen and 6ea*e (.ir 18 N7arosla" ?ir 0 6h.>-D. in 6olitical Science. the &$F recently pro@ected that the Chinese economy would )ecome the world's lar est in .>>-# in lo)al studies. )ut they are sensiti"e to model specification. Economic decline doesn’t ca se #ar . since China has such a machines. president. pp.A$( China Econ . technolo y firms. over the last fe# decades China. has made enormo s leaps ntil it no# occ pies the n m-er t#o spot. Leeds and Davis (-==S# conclude that the conflict-initiating -ehavior of 1P ind striali+ed democracies is nrelated to economic conditions as do 4ic!ering and ?isangani (.S. Amon cross0national studies. my own inconsistent findin s for economic rowth fit well with the mi9ed results reported in the literature. -HS0-DS# &hile the United States no longer dominates the lo)al economy as it did durin the first two decades after <<&&. economy.mpact U%S% is still -iggest econom" – #on’t ca se #ar Shor 1$ (Francis. Fess and Jrphanides (-==H#.S.H#P Empirical s pport for the economic gro#th rate is m ch #ea!er% . &n fact. while ?ir and 7asins*i (.Y NDP &n effect. 6rofessor of Fistory O <ayne State. --(-#.S.ed disputes. 6erspecti"es on 8lo)al Me"elopment and ?echnolo y.>>. (isan ani and 6ic*erin (. Jneal and +ussett (-==S# report that slow rowth increases the incidence of militari. Fordham1s (.: /-40/.he finding that poor economic performance is associated #ith a higher li!elihood of territorial conflict initiation is significant onl" in 5odels A– K%1K .

and it has no real political opposition at home to stop it actin howe"er it sees fit to stop slidin rowth. +ecent years of sur in rowth in China ha"e certainly done a lot to *eep lo)al economic data loo*in rosy. And whate"er a)out slowin rowth. Chinese )an*s did not issue su)prime loans as a rule. Clifford. China is also a centralised economy run )y the Communist 6arty./3433./4 trillion in hard0currency reser"es is a useful war chest to call on in a downturn . howe"er. China has a lot of plus points to help out.com. offerin ta9 re)ates for e9porters and allowin state0controlled prices for a ricultural products to rise. writin China off is premature. and that there is simply no precedent for a country rowin and rowin without some *ind of respite. one that %uropean leaders athered this wee*end in :ei@in for the Asian0%urope $eetin would i"e their eye teeth to )e a)le to present to their constituencies. &t has spent the last two years tryin to fi ht inflation and cool the o"erheatin economy . China is now a lo)alised economy.are m ch more li!el" to respond #ith territorial diversions to direct signs of their npop larit" Ce%g%2 stri!es2 protests2 riotsG than to general -ac!gro nd conditions s ch as economic malaise. &rish?imes. <hile it is a lo)alised economy committed to the <?J. Mespite all this loom.” http://www.3 per cent. the first time in si9 years.e. ?he :ei@in o"ernment is well placed to help protect the economy from the worst ra"a es of a lo)al downturn.H/-. )ut perhaps China's influence has )een somewhat o"ersold. )ut its domestic mar*et is still massi"ely undere9ploited . 6resuma)ly.irishtimes. protesters can )e distracted "ia territorial di"ersions while fi9in the economy would ta*e a more concerted and prolon ed policy effort. are widely considered the psycholo ical tri ine"ita)le and the Jlympics. compared to the Gnited States with a muscular .com/newspaper/opinion/.. )ut China has )een so successful in *eepin a ti ht leash on the internet and the media that it is difficult for opposition to or anise itself in a meanin ful way. Should the economy start to worsen si nificantly..SS.html# All of this down)eat news feeds into a rowin suspicion that China has had its ca*e and eaten for way too lon .H. “China's stallin )oom has lo)e worried. %sta)lishin what that pause will loo* li*e and what it means to the rest of the world is the latest challen e facin lo)al analysts. ?he central )an* has lowered its )enchmar* interest rate twice in the past two months. that is when their power is threatened )oth )y si ns of discontent with their rule and )y more systemic pro)lems pla uin the country (i. and the country's o-. fatal territorial confrontations. so it's a lot easier for it to ta*e the foot off the )ra*es than it is to put them on in the first place. ?his implies that leaders may )e reser"in the most hi h0profile and ris*y di"ersions for the times when they are the most desperate. &t is not a )i enou h economy )y itself to *eep the lo)al economy tic*in o"er. ?he currency is sta)le and there are hi h liLuidity le"els. = per cent is still an admira)le rate. an underperformin economy#.=. . pu)lic an er will increase. all of which i"e China the most fle9i)ility in the world to fend off the impact of the lo)al financial crisis. A han o"er is considered economically. :ad economic conditions seem to moti"ate only the most serious. %9pect si nificant measures to *ic*0start the property mar*et to a"oid house prices fallin too drastically. No impact to the Chinese econom" and the CC4 solves econ collapse Coonan 9P (->/. while meanin less er for China to face a slowdown. ?he State Council is increasin spendin on infrastructure. says 76 $or an economist Fran* 8on . and it is to this mar*et that the o"ernment will most li*ely turn. accountin for H per cent of the world economy.>>3/->.

Such Misunity within the rulin elite. Senior Associate in the China 6ro ram at the Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace.A$( CC4 Sta-ilit" . within the framewor* of competin ener y needs.mpact No CC4 collapse7the government represses insta-ilit" 4ei H ($in9in. 'orth (orea. And althou h the &nternet may ha"e made control of information more difficult. &n addition. and unemployed mi rants will constitute the principal threat to the party's rule. in order to minimi+e ris!s to the glo-al sec rit" frame#or!. A lance at countries such as Tim)a)we. Luic*ly arrestin protest leaders and lea"in their followers disor ani. on the other hand. . . China consumes )etween se"en and ---/. :ut that is not oin to happen. demorali. Chinese censors can still react Luic*ly and thorou hly to end the dissemination of dan erous news. wea*ens the re ime's repressi"e capacity and usually spells the rulers' doom.2 ?here is scope or fle9i)ility for the 6+C to somewhat transform its ener y demands in the lo)al mar*etplace. frustrated colle e raduates.#voiding an -conomic !andemic The Critical %lobal Significance of the . Since the ?iananmen crac*down. and its Actin Chief %9ecuti"e2 %ditor. and impotent. .H>. )ut they will not loosen the party's hold on power.>>>. “<ill the Chinese Communist 6arty Sur"i"e the CrisisR” Forei n Affairs. times less efficient than is the Gnited StatesY. &f worsenin economic conditions lead to a potentially e9plosi"e political situation. and to impro"e ener y usa e efficiency. a re"olutionary scenario o"erloo*s two critical forces )loc*in political chan e in China and similar authoritarian political systems: the re ime's capacity for repression and the unity amon the elite .ed.he onl" alternative2 from the standpoint of external po#ers2 to assisting in the process of sta-ili+ing . times more ener y than 7apan to produce one dollar of ross domestic product (8M6#. http://www. &f those roups were in fact to )and to ether in a powerful coalition. ?he CC6 has already demonstrated its remar*a)le a)ility to contain and suppress chronic social protest and small0scale dissident mo"ements. a well0trained and well0eLuipped anti0riot force of . the Chinese o"ernment has reatly refined its repressi"e capa)ilities. China's secret police are amon the most capa)le in the world and are au mented )y a "ast networ* of informers.ed mo"ement a ainst the re ime. Freeman ma*es the point that domestic and international pressures seem li*ely to cause the 6+C to impro"e its ener y efficiency throu h internal inno"ation. and it's a)out /-/. 0efense 1 $oreign #ffairs Special #nalysis.com/articles/D/3D. and :urma shows that a relati"ely unified elite in control of the military and police can clin to power throu h )rutal force. )*)+.forei naffairs. 8&S (%regory. 4/-.ealth of the !/C -conomy. the party will stic* to these tried0and0true practices to ward off any or ani. %conomic crisis and social unrest may ma*e it tou her for the CC6 to o"ern. Chinese state security ser"ices ha"e applied the tactic of Ypolitical decapitationY to reat effect. "exis. And many of the inno"ations which the 6+C is e9plorin are in the area of clean coal and nuclear ener y. Btd. then the world's lon est0rulin party would indeed )e in deep trou)le./min9in0pei/will0the0chinese0communist0party0sur"i"e0the0crisis# &t mi ht seem reasona)le to e9pect that challen es from the disaffected ur)an middle class.. Am).t seems clear that it is in the interests of the international comm nit" to help the 43C sta-ili+e its ener y situation.. +espondin to tens of thousands of riots each year has made Chinese law enforcement the most e9perienced in the world at crowd control and dispersion.ed. Even if2 no escalation Cople" @ O Award0winnin historian and lo)al strate ist2 foundin Mirector of Future Mirections &nternational 6ty. e"en in the face of a)ysmal economic failure . ?he re ime maintains the 6eople's Armed 6olice. Fe noted that despite the 6+C's Y"ery low rates of per capita ener y consumption (which are only a)out -/ percent of GS per capita consumption#. Cu)a.

the 43CMs energ" s ppl"2 c rrenc" credi-ilit"2 and pop lation nrest is to plan for the containment of an" implosion of political sta-ilit" #ithin the 43C sho ld its transition d ring the next t#o decades to entrenched po#er stat s -e interr pted. .

S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. C'6C is partnered with Cene. 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J.A3AC? <.N2 5ar"land J<'NN= .D *.lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'. C<3?E32 .>.uela's 5 state0oil company. po.A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .A3.llinois L..' A5E3. 5 China 'ational Jffshore Jil Corporation (C'JJC#. t in terms of 0energ" sec rit"12 #hich is the slogan tilised in the US -" shale oil and gas proponents2 China is act all" doing ver" #ell – -" -asing a considera-le part of its energ" strategies on man fact red rene#a-le energ" s"stems%) China’s development of #ind po#er moves ahead at a pace that far o tstrips that of other leading ind strial po#ers2 so that the .<.>N 4<L. Sinopec has 5 focused on onshore oil e9traction in 6inar del +io pro"ince in 5 western Cu)a.SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.htm# P2 Energ" concerns have pla"ed a role in ChinaMs overt res ) to#ard Latin America2 #ith the 43C either concl ding or ) exploring vario s energ" investments in .2 *irginia J<'N .he three ma/or2 state-o#ned ) Chinese energ" corporations ma!ing Latin American investments 5 are the China 6etroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec#. 6dCSA (6etroleos de Cene. &n April . Australian professor of competiti"e dynamics and lo)al strate y..N L% CA3D.A3A .A5A2 .>-H shale as output”.il's 6etro)ras to )uild a natural 5 as pipeline lin*in the northeast and southeast of :ra.2 Alas!a) 3<.SA 5U3?<&S?.E3.0)d3S0 >>-//fea)dc>. +enewa)les manufacturin )oosts Chinese ener y security.ennessee) . Financial ?imes.CA2) AS.5 &E.olivia2 4er 2 Colom-ia2 and *ene+ ela2 as #ell as offshore ) pro/ects in Argentina and C -a% . 7uly 4#.H)n cu)ic metres of shale as )y .ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E..ft..C'2 <hio) .<NS ) J<SE4' 3% . and may ha"e to .A.>N 3ELA. for 5 e9ploration in de"elopment of the Jrinoco )elt oil reser"es.EE <N 6<3E. 5 6etro)ras and C'JJC also reportedly are st d"ing the ) feasi-ilit" of /oint operations in exploration2 refining2 and ) pipeline constr ction aro nd the #orld.C= AND ) [[S<6.A2 AND A63. 5 Despite these investments in oil prod ction and assets2 ) o-servers point o t that China relies relativel" little on ) Latin America for oil2 #hich acco nts for some A_ of ChinaMs ) oil imports2 and that #hile the percentage co ld rise a -it2 it ) is nli!el" to change significantl" in the f t re%\K$\ Chinese energ" sec rit" inevita-le and is not -ased on oil s pplies 5atthe#s @DA (7ohn $atthews.<IE32 California .LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<.mpact Latin America isn’t !e" to Chinese oil C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55.il. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=. 5ean#hile2 solar photovoltaic prod ction is alread" moving to second-generation thin-film watch as the GS pulls ahead in dri"in its own dependence on fossil0fuelled ener y systems to new hei hts (or depths#.S.<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t 3.com/intl/cms/s/>/daDdSScc0e44d0--e..N<*.>>D.E32 Lo isiana) J.>>8< are li*ely to )e e9ceeded.E3.>-H.CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www..A$( <il .N S<U.>-H tar et of ->>8< (itself already raised# and the .html# Sir.ENJA5. Beslie Foo* writes that shale as is “critical to China1s ener y future” (“China li*ely to miss tar et for .DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3. &n Cene.. .ra+il2 Ec ador2 ) .N.S.5 De5. Sinopec 5 si ned an a reement with :ra. http://www. &n Cu)a. &t is true that China may indeed miss its self0imposed “tar et” of D.N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) . and China 5 'ational 6etroleum Corporation (C'6C#.uela. 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*. S/4/-4.2 So th Carolina ) .C'A3D >% LU>A32 .uela.> tar et of .#.. S.NAMS 6<3E. 4<&E3MM .

Y &nt'l Affairs 3S(D#. As a conseLuence. Gni"ersity of <estminster (+oland. Jn the one hand. means that there is also considera-le ca tion in . has a n m-er of congr ent interests #ith other oil-importing states2 s ch as the US2 the EU and Japan. YChina and lo)al oil: "ulnera)ility and opportunity. . in China1s strate y away from a neo0mercantilist ?he picture that emer es is a mi9ed and comple9 one.here has -een a nota-le shift. YCollision Course in the South China Sea.technolog" C#here Sol"ndra #as o tg essed -" the US mar!etGW and in the ne# field of concentrated solar po#er – tilising mirror and lens arra"s – China has recentl" proposed targets of A>& for $81F and 18>& for $8$8% . approach which see*s to a"oid reliance on mar*ets and to ensure supplies throu h physical control of forei n sources of ener y. that its energ"-directed diplomac" is driven -" economic rather than political necessit" and see!s cooperation rather than confrontation% . %:SCJ# there is evidence that China’s energ"-related diplomac" and engagement have -ecome increasin ly s pportive of the efficient operation of international energ" mar!ets. the potential costs of conflict for the re ion and the world far outwei h any potential economic )enefits contained in the sea)ed of the South China SeaI much of which is un*nown in any case.hese ne# targets #o ld more than do -le #orld o tp t and drive companies along the cost-red ction c rve% 4 -lic opinion and nationalism are the driving so rce of tension in the So th China Sea – oil isnMt !e" Nehr PD$AD1$ (Ci*ram. most nota)ly with the GS. ?he pu)lic pronouncements and statements issued )y the Chinese leadership see* to reass re all external actors. ?he 'ational &nterest. includin those in the <est. the So th China Sea disp te is no# increasingl" -eing driven -" domestic p -lic opinion in the co ntries concerned that is f eled -" militar" lo--ies and strong nationalist sentiments% Chinese reso rce gra-s #ill -e peacef l Dannre ther 11 00 6rofessor and Fead of Mepartment of 6olitics and &nternational +elations.his gro#ing confidence in the role of mar!ets has -een com-ined #ith an implicit recognition -" the . China has -ecome more #illing to recogni+e the international p -lic goods provided )y the <est in supplyin security and military protection for these mar*ets. as a ma@or oil0 importin state. --/-/--. senior associate and :a*rie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies at the Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace. China’s intense economic interdependence with the <est.or /commentary/collision0course0the0south0china0sea0S43>R pa e\-# Certainly. . 3ather than the availa-ilit" of h"drocar-ons and fisheries. as ar ued a)o"e.ei/ing a-o t s pporting the anti-#estern policies of many energ"-rich revisionist states.ei/ing o"ernment that China.Y http://nationalinterest.

he first is that for Latin American states2 the decision of #hich China to s pport is less ideological and political than it e"er has )een2 #hich ma!es the decision a straight p economic +ero-s m choice% . Cene. Colom)ia. . 5 ?he economics of international reco nition 5 &n the Americas.e0ir. All this resulted in a thawin of world opinion. 5 <hen the Gnited 'ations was formed in -=/H. ndermining .info/. Faiti.ai#an iss e’ nilaterall"% Su)seLuently.he second is that Latin America is home to nat ral reso rces #hich are of great significance to the h ngr" gro#ing economies of the 43C and the 3<C re ardless of international reco nition. 8uyana. China in the &nternational Arena. Cincent V the 8renadinesSouth AmericaAr entina. ?he Gni"ersity of 8las ow.ai#an . ?his a"e the +JC a de facto ad"anta e o"er the 6+C in attainin reco nition from other nation states2 particularly as the diplomatic clout of the he emonic Gnited States supported its position as the true representati"e of the Chinese people. 7amaica. 8renada. 8uatemala. "isit of 6resident 'i9on to China further added le itimacy to the communist re ime. Economic solidarit" is increasingl" important to the formation of the . until the rapprochement of the -=S>s. Suriname. Costa +ica%l Sal"ador. :oli"ia. when the 'i9on administration wished to impro"e ties with the de facto rulers of China in order to e9ploit the Sino0So"iet split.mpact – . . concerned with le itimacy. Bucia. Cu)a. &n 7une -=H> the Gnited States inter"ened )y placin its Sth fleet in the ?aiwan straits to stop a conclusi"e military resolution to the ci"il war and slowly the )attlefield )ecame primarily political.DL . G' +esolution .aipei internationall"% .ai#an iss e to -e a domestic iss e2 it is #ith some iron" that one of China’s main foreign polic" goals is to isolate . or forei n policyR 5 China’s goals in the region amo nt to more than the capt re of nat ral reso rces% Altho gh the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China considers resol tion of the . rou hly -> percent of ?aiwan1s direct forei n in"estment (FM&# went to Batin America and the Cari))ean. for the 43C2 ever" state #hich #ithdra#s its s pport for the 3<C ta!es it one step closer to -eing in a position #here it can resolve the 9. Chile.ation. Former Conference V +esearch Assistant at Security <atch. :ahamas. countries )e an switchin their diplomatic reco nition from ?aipei to :ei@in . Former +esearcher at Gni"ersity Colle e Bondon. Mominican +epu)lic. :ra. the nationalist (uomintan retreated to the island of Formosa (?aiwan# where it continued to claim to )e the le itimate o"ernment of all of China. St.ai#an-Latin America relationship2 for t#o reasons% .” NH-P hi hli htin the concerted effort made in the re ion.il. Mominica. “?he Chinese Challen e to the $onroe Moctrine.e. St (itts V 'e"is. No#here is this more evident than in Latin America2 #here 1$ of the $A nations that still have official diplomatic relations #ith the 3<C reside%) ?he historical )ac* round5 Followin the mainland Communist "ictory in the Chinese Ci"il <ar in -=/=.ai#an is of the tmost importance to China2 and it has ta!en to Gru uay.>>3.ai#an #ar 6erg sson 1$ (+o))ie. St. Fonduras. the the 3<C has maintained more diplomatic s pport in the Americas than an" other region2 mainl" d e to the small nat re of the states involved and the importance of . %cuador.ai#an2 ever" co ntr" #hich s#itches its recognition to the 43C damages its legitimac" as a nation state in the international arena% ?he ?a)le )elow shows the desi nation of diplomatic reco nition in the re ion in . while the decision is not political for Batin American countries. rn Chinese infl ence in Latin America ca ses . $aster of Science./>S/.A$( . ?rinidad V ?o)a o:eli.ai#anese aid to their economies% Bi notes that “from the late -=3>s to 6+C had international reco nition and lon standin support from ideolo ical allies such as Cu)a. and the famous -=S. for . 6eru.” http://www. 6anamaCari))eanAnti ua V :ar)uda. and radually as the dura)ility and permanence of the 6+C re ime )ecame in rained. +esearcher at +oyal Society for the Arts. Fowe"er. the +epu)lic of China (+JC# )ecame one of the fi"e permanent mem)ers of the Security Council. Featured Contri)utor at &nternational :usiness ?imes.uela6ara uay5 Jn the other hand.>-.5 Countries +eco nisin the 6+C (China#Countries +eco nisin the +JC (?aiwan#Central America$e9ico.4/does0 chinese0 rowth0in0latin0america0threaten0american0interests/# ?aiwan O domestic.SH3 ranted the 1China seat1 to the 6+C at the e9pense of the +JC who were in effect e9iled from the or ani. the early -==>s.he 43C and the 3<C compete directl" for international recognition amon all the states in the world.5 Fowe"er. :ar)ados. 'icara ua.

2 So th Carolina ) .ted to the 43C pic!ing off the fe# remaining s pporters of the 3<C O ta*e for e9ample.9o t-idding’ .. e"en ?aiwanQs economy can )e put under strain )y the seemin ly relentless stream of forei n aid which has )rou ht only de)atea)le and mild ains to the ?aiwanese cause.' A5E3.e the +epu)lic of China (?aiwan#.NAMS 6<3E.A5A2 .his has contri.A2 AND A63.C'A3D >% LU>A32 .SA?S<N2 >eorgia ) 3<.ai#an Strait% A ?aiwan that was not reco nised )y any state from the Americas.N2 5ar"land J<'NN= .t ref ses to maintain official relations #ith an" state that recognises the 3<CW an action #hich can -e : ite prohi-itive to the co ntr" -eing a-le to ta!e advantage of the gro#ing Chinese mar!et% Althou h Mombn ue. o"/fdsys/p* /C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.htm# P2 .5 De5. Commonwealth of Mominica as*ed ?aipei for a .C'2 <hio) .ai#an2 perhaps -" force% China controlling Latin America means the" #o ld #in a #ar C3S 8P (Congressional 3esearch Service2 C<55.<4'E3 J% D<DD2 Connectic t 3. 5 ?he effect on American interests5 &ere the 3<C to -e deserted -" its remaining allies in Latin America2 the USA #o ld -e disadvantaged in attempting to maintain the stat s : o across the .A3AC? <.ai#an in offers of foreign aid.ndiana) J<'N 6% ?E33=2 5assach setts C'UC? 'A>EL2 Ne-ras!a ) 3USSELL D% 6E.DEN2 Jr%2 Dela#are2 Chairman ) C'3.A3A . and conseLuently played the 6+C and ?aiwan a ainst each other. Similarl"2 China’s experience #ith one-part" r le has ta ght it the importance of part"-to-part" relations in addition to state-to-state relations2 f rther cementing the 43C -" esta-lishing a relationship -ased on good#ill and common nderstanding% &ndeed )y the start of -==3 “the CC6 had esta)lished relations with almost all ma@or political parties in the countries that were ?aiwan1s diplomatic allies in Batin America.2 Alas!a) 3<.ennessee) . or %urope (with the e9ception of the Catican# would not )e seen as a enuine so"erei n entity whose defence would )e more important than the up*eep of ood relations )etween China and the <est..A3. NH/P5 ?his incident showcased the fact that in economic terms. Miplomatic relationship was soon )ro*en after ?aipei turned down the reLuest. C<3?E32 .5 &n early .CA2) AS.SA 5U3?<&S?.5 &E.e. the 6+C is winnin the )attle for Batin America.<IE32 California . which is unrelated to pu)lic welfare.2 *irginia J<'N . than*s in part a ain to its position within the G'.ai#an2 so might its am-itions% .he U%S%A might find itself in a position #here it co ld no longer #ithstand the diplomatic press re to allo# the 43C to concl de a settlement on .in ?aiwan..S/html/C6+?0-->S6+?/-=.S.” NHSP ?his incident showed that China is prepared to use its lo)al clout to play spoiler and apply indirect pressure on countries to adopt its position. to punish the Cari))ean nation for its appeal for G' acceptance of ?aiwan. ?aiwan has fared remar*a)ly well in this )iddin war2 focusin its aid in"estments on infrastructure such as stadiums in St (itts V 'e"is for the Cric*et <orld Cup in .>N 3ELA...>N 4<L.C= AND ) [[S<6.ENJA5. t it also is possi-le to s pport s!epticism concerning ) the [[-enign riseMM notion -" pointing to historical examples ) in the 1Hth and $8th cent ries of confrontation and o tright ) #arfare -et#een reigning po#ers s ch as the United States and ) rising po#ers s ch as the 43C% .N L% CA3D.N S<U.n political terms tooW the 43C is in an advantageo s position.<NS ) J<SE4' 3% . 4% CASE=2 Jr%2 4enns"lvania DA*.” NHDP the le itimacy of this claim has to )e )rou ht into Luestion O for e9ample “in 7une -==D. po..N. the Mominican case.llinois L. a strate y made possi)le )y the decline in aid from the defunct So"iet Gnion.LL NELS<N2 6lorida >E<3>E *% *<. ?he Cari))ean nation had relied on ?aiwan to de"elop its a riculture0)ased economy since -=34.H3 million aid.E32 Lo isiana) J. As China’s economic and political position in the #orld improves vis-b-vis -oth America and . and the <est.E3.5 6olitical strate ies of the 6+C5 .CA2 >overnment 4rinting <ffice2 April $88 http://www.S.>>/. . which is pre occupied with terrorism and the $iddle %ast..N><LD2 &isconsin N<35 C<LE5AN2 5innesota) .A33ASS<2 &"oming ) Anton" J% .EE <N 6<3E..” NHHP the reality is that the use of force and direct harm are not the only means a"aila)le to an economic entity as powerful as China.<. China fou ht the e9tension of the G' mission in Faiti.” NH4P Mespite its smaller si.D *. <hile it can )e ar ued that China “pro"ides incenti"es )ut does not threaten harm to induce countries to defect from reco ni.lin!en2 Staff Director ) ?enneth A% 5"ers2 Jr%2 3ep -lican Staff Director2 C'. 5ENENDER2 Ne# Jerse" J. su ests that the 6+C “has not )een puniti"e toward those states that still reco ni. 4<&E3MM .N<*.” NH3P further isolatin the +JC. Bi notes that “the re ion1s leaders ha"e turned to Asia for help to promote trade and financial assistance.5 Fowe"er. .>>S.E3.

which has traditionally pushed for independence with China. China has claimed sovereignt" over self-r led .s . .ei/ing decides that it can’t #ait for those thin s and tries to compel . :ut that doesn1t mean pro)lem sol"ed. “Could ?aiwan's relationship with China deteriorate after electionsR”.ei/ing decided that it co ld no longer #ait for the trend of economic inte ration and the softening of hostilities .t has not reno nced the threat of force to p rs e re nification if peacef l means fail. &n fact.ei/ing #ith his ns ccessf l p rs it of constit tional independence for .n the mid-1HH8s chill2 China test-fired missiles into #aters near ./>-->/Could0?aiwan0s0relationship0with0China0deteriorate0after0 elections# .fpri.>-. . & would say that this is a completel" #rong interpretation of the realities of .or /footnotes/-.f .csmonitor.ai#an to accept nification )efore ?aiwan is ready. political leaders and actors in 5 some countries2 moreo"er2 in the event of a possi-le U%S% ) militar" conflict #ith China2 43C h man and commercial ) infrastr ct re in Latin America #o ld -e #ell placed to disr pt ) and distract the United States in the hemisphere and to collect ) intelligence data against U%S% forces operating in the ) region%\$K\ . Fe)ruary. )ecause that1s what ?aiwan is oin to do.D.html# . .he US government is -o nd -" a 1H@H congressional act to s pport .S.>>3 and was )ac*ed at the time )y ?sai1s party O o traged . middles.ai#an. ?hat stance han s o"er ?sai1s party.. an F6+& senior fellow. the prospects for some *ind of accommodation )etween these two sides are actually loo*in )etter.ilt p as a res lt of civil #ar and decades of conflict to wor* their ma ic% . And more recentl"2 former 4resident Chen Sh i--ian O who o"erned from . then #e co ld have pro-lems.hro gh this more s!eptical ) lens2 the 43C presence in Latin America and the Cari--ean has ) partic larl" #orrisome implications% &t could help stren then 5 anti0democratic and anti0G. http://www. :ut the 6+C isn1t li*ely to do that )ecause of the costs to it of doin so and )ecause the trend to see* formal independence and chan e the name of +JC has already pea*ed.ai#an societ" and p -lic opinion. . i"en all these trends and contradictionsR ?ed 8alen Carpenter1s America1s Comin <ar with China: A Collision Course o"er ?aiwan (6al ra"e.solation ma!es conflict more li!el" – nationalism and empirics prove the" #ill see! re nification – and that dra#s in the US Jennings 1$ (+alph O CS$.ri er.>>D# )e ins.ai#an headed for disaster.ai#anMs defense )ut wants to et alon with :ei@in so it reaps the lon 0term economic and trade )enefits e9pected from the Chinese economy.com/<orld/Asia0 6acific/.ai#an after then0 6resident Bee ?en 0hui ad"ocated ?aiwan1s independence.ai#an since the Chinese civil #ar of the -=/>s.>-.>>S>4.ai#an is going to declare independence and that the U%S% is going to -e dra#n into a #ar #ith China . . and ends #ith the idea that .>>>0..he onl" scenario for conflict is Chinese aggression 3igger @ (Shelly O :rown Associate 6rofessor of %ast Asian 6olitics at Ma"idson Colle e. <ashin ton would welcome a continued thaw as it tries to impro"e ties with China without isolatin ?aiwan.. “<hat %"ery American 'eeds to (now a)out ?aiwan”. http://www. fannin fear that cast China as a ma@or election issue.ai#an strait #o ld -e if . ?he 6+C can increasin ly see that on the other side of that hill. .taiwan. the onl" reason #e might enco nter a crisis in the .

$r.>. . were to ma*e :ei@in understand that any armed attac* on ?aiwan would lead to worldwide criticism and )oycotts of Chinese products. Fer research interests include Asian security V confidence )uildin .Vt9!ttnews[H:)ac*6id[HM\-D3Vno!cache\-# &ndeed. third0party inter"ention would )e constructi"e and helpful to create a win0win situation. %urope could su est to :ei@in that a loose confederation or commonwealth to consolidate the current am)i uous co0e9istenceIneither unification nor independenceIwould )e a feasi)le peaceful solution accepta)le to )oth sides. 7apanese. in peace V conflict research from Gppsala Gni"ersity.ai#an is already wea* and isolated eno gh to allo# for Chinese militar" operations2 . 7uly . and $on olia at the Mepartment of Mefense. For instance.f .!egami P ($asa*o &*e ami O 6rofessor and Mirector of the Center for 6acific Asia Studies (C6AS# at Stoc*holm Gni"ersity.ai#an is ver" close to lashing o t #hen isolated -" China . :lumenthal is the co0author of YAn Aw*ward %m)race: ?he Gnited States and China in the . )ecause the framewor* lac*s a solid round in terms of international law. <hen the G. ?aiwan. China1s Jne0China principle and $a Ein 0@eou1s claim of “so"erei nty country” would hardly coalesce. it would reatly impro"e conflict pre"ention if 'A?J could at a minimum maintain its own "ersion of “strate ic am)i uity” to ma*e :ei@in 1s calculation of usin force more difficult. international political dynamics.>>S/>-/>=/. and domestic social0political de"elopments in China and ?aiwan.ai#an is a model of freedom at home and responsi-ilit" a-road2 #h" is &ashingtonMs attit de to#ard . $r. and there)y more prudent N=P.#.>>/.n addition2 it has s pported US co nter-proliferation efforts s ch as the 4roliferation Sec rit" . any )ilateral tal*s would ine"ita)ly end up as a cruel power ame. and is instead su)@ect to the chan e of "arious "aria)les such as military power parity.com/'ews/editorials/archi"es/.>>>#.taipeitimes. and a 6h. o"ernment on China issues for o"er a decade. :y nature.l menthal @ (Man. ?he location of ?aiwan.ei/ing / dges that .@amestown. ?herefore. Additionally.nitiative% . &n such unsta)le circumstances. ?he current co0e9istence framewor* in the cross0Strait relationship is unsustaina)le. 8i"en :ei@in 1s persistence on its old0fashioned so"erei nty concept and territorial inte rity. http://www.aipei has provided material s pport to the #ar on terrorism and reconstr ction efforts in .-st CenturyY (A%& 6ress. Bee resorted to declarin the contro"ersial meetin special “state0to0state relations” (::C. in the worst case.>>S. Fe has also ser"ed on the Academic Ad"isory :oard of the con ressional G.. in which the a)sorption of ?aiwan would )e imminent due to its relati"ely wea*er position.>>3.30. &n this respect. economic mer ers. could pro"ide much inspiration and creati"e ideas for China and ?aiwan. he ser"ed as a commissioner on the con ressionally0mandated G. he ser"ed as senior director for China. which has a rich historical e9perience of transcendin national )orders throu h post0modern re ional cooperation. to ether with other <estern countries. and held the position of "ice chairman in .ei/ing #o ld opt for the se of force to reali+e its nification aim.to .aipei so .ai#an is riddled #ith pec liarities% . From .0China <or*in 8roup.f .>>S mi ht ha"e aimed at such a si nallin effect toward China.ai#an is a li-eral democrac" #ith a prospero s2 free-mar!et econom" and is the ver" model of the !ind of Oresponsi-le sta!eholderO &ashington hopes China #ill -e in the f t re% Despite its excl sion from donor conferences2 .>-. it is understanda)le that many countries ma*e such a statement of “neutrality” or remain )ystanders.>>D0.S. cannot e9clude strate ic nuclear e9chan e. as well as the international community.S. She holds Moctor of Sociolo y from Gni"ersity of ?o*yo. former ?aiwanese 6resident Bee ?en 0hui secretly sent an en"oy to Fon (on to ne otiate with :ei@in on cross0Strait political issues )ut apparently failed to )rin any constructi"e outcomes and. http://www. ?aipei ?imes2 GS policies dri"e nation's isolation.>>44//>44# US polic" to#ard . a cross0Strait conflict cannot )e a limited theatre of war. Australian. in the midst of the "ital sea lines of communications (SBJCs#. ?he recent lar e0 scale na"al e9ercise conducted )y the Gnited States. conseLuently. ?hus.0China co0mana ement only muddles throu h the cross0Strait pro)lem without leadin to any fundamental solution. . %urope. &n the -==>s. 40. helpin them to find a creati"e third way0out that )oth parties can comforta)ly accept. Bi*ely. less optimistic. howe"er.ai#an isolation is more li!el" to ca se conflict . %urope1s rich e9periences of conflict pre"ention and mana ement could )e a new su)@ect worth studyin for the related parties in the Asia06acific. arms control V disarmament and non0proliferation issues. economically. in which the ris* of escalation . a cross0Strait conflict is potentially one of the most dangero s conflicts in"ol"in t#o ma/or n clear po#ers.S. 'o"em)er . &ndian and Sin aporean na"ies in Septem)er ..>-. any )ilateral tal*s on eLual terms are impossi)le and unrealistic. ?he 7amestown Foundation. ?o lea"e the issue to :ei@in 0?aipei )ilateral tal*s is not a solution either.. Sweden.ra: and Afghanistan% .S. politically and militarily. ?ime for Conflict 6re"ention Across the ?aiwan Strait.>>. . &t will also )e constructi"e if %urope.or /pro rams/china)rief/sin le/Rt9!ttnews[H:tt!news [HM\/3. any le"el of armed conflict will ine"ita)ly en"elop an international affair with lo)al conseLuences. Man :lumenthal is the director of Asian Studies at the American %nterprise &nstitute. :lumenthal has )oth ser"ed in and ad"ised the G.0China %conomic and Security +e"iew Commission since . where he focuses on %ast Asian security issues and Sino0American relations.M. 8i"en the power disparity )etween :ei@in and ?aipei.

he tr th is that there is practicall" no positive agenda -et#een .aipei to coordinate their militar" plans2 the sec rit" relationship has not fared m ch -etter% 5ilitar" relations are still governed -" restrictions on visits -" US general officers that -egan d ring the administration of former US president Jimm" Carte r% .ai#anMs options are d#indling% Either it #ill lash o t or it #ill O6inlandi+e2O that is2 -ecome a China-compliant ne tral po#er% Neither option serves US interests% . Fe left this post in April . Fe wor*ed as a @ournalist in the 6arliamentary 6ress 8allery in Can)erra in -=S303-.5 From -=3H.ai#an internationall" and intimidate it militaril"2 . sh administration has to ted% .ai#an a OnormalO .ai#an gain o-erver stat s in the &orld 'ealth Assem-l"% . 8raeme Mo)ell is a 7ournalism Fellow at the Bowy &nstitute. sh form lated a Ofreedom agendaO to advance freedom sec rit" partner2 allo#ing . Fe writes ?he Can)erra Column for ?he &nterpreter.aipei to ma!e arms re: ests according to its o#n timeline as it so ght to fill its defense needs% #orld#ide% . co"erin the security dialo ue of the AS%A' +e ional Forum.he defense relationship largel" rests on decisions made in the late "ears of the Clinton administration -.here has -een little effort to incl de .ai#an #ere p shing for formal independence% .t #asnMt s pposed to -e this #a"% .ai#an as a virt al pariah( h miliating .ai#an from that comm nit" damages the ver" idea it is . -=3D03= and .so rY .ei/ing tilt of former US president .en A6%C summits.ei/ing activel" ndermines .5 8raeme was the A:C's South %ast Asia radio correspondent in Sin apore and did se"eral stints as the Can)erra0)ased Forei n Affairs V Mefence Correspondent for +adio Australia from -=S3 to .n that spirit2 he has s pported >eorgia2 U!raine and other co ntries formerl" >iven the thr st of .ai#an a genero s arms pac!age and made . reportin also for A:C radio news and current affairs pro rams.aipei -" micromanaging transit stops -" its president and p -licl" #arning that Oindependence means #ar2O as if an" responsi-le leader in . and the Asia 6acific since -=SH.he administration of US 4resident >eorge &% . 8raeme @oined the A:C in -=SH and concentrated on reportin politics and international affairs. ser"in as a correspondent in %urope.t has denied .#hen US Department of Defense officials #o!e of ChinaMs increased militar" po#er% &ashingtonMs #ea! s pport for . America and throu hout Asia and the 6acific.ai#anMs de facto independent stat s% As China #or!s to isolate .>>3.he US has also denied . 8raeme focused on reportin the affairs of the Asia 6acific.ai#an #ill have serio s conse: ences2 especiall" as .he US engages in onl" halfhearted efforts to help . sh offered .ai#an defend itself% 5oreover2 after Sept% 112 $8812 attac!s in the US2 . Fe has )een reportin on Australian and international politics.rade Agreement2 despite granting them to less economicall" capa-le co ntries s ch as 5orocco2 Jordan and <man% .ai#an re: ests for pgraded 6-1Es despite a clear need for them% .>>3 to )ecome +adio Australia's Associate %ditor for the Asia 6acific. the %ast Asia Summit and a do.5 Startin as a newspaper @ournalist in -=S-. sh came to po#er determined to change the perceived .he president said that the US #o ld Odo #hatever it ta!esO to help .ai#an a 6ree .he former co ld provo!e China into starting a #ar2 #hile the latter #o ld res lt in a second So th ?orea-li!e democrac"2 #hich is no longer #illing to s pport US polic" in Asia% p to the realit" &hen .ilt on% nder Soviet control2 despite 3 ssian protests% Despite a gro#ing need for &ashington and .ncl ding co ntries li!e Eg"pt and excl ding . shMs policies2 it is indeed odd that &ashington treats . the )lo of the Bowy &nstitute.aipei and &ashington% .ai#an in the Ofreedom agendaO or the glo-al comm nit" of democracies that the .ill Clinton% . forei n affairs and defence.ai#an feels cornered2 the" lasho t violentl" Do-ell @ (8raeme.

ai#an that ma" -e more li!el" to -randish the independence #eapon% .anu.aipei give m ch attention to an" end game% . :ei@in after the crushin of the pro0democracy mo"ement in ?iananmen SLuare and the return of Fon (on to China. China and ?aiwan in the South 6acific: Miplomatic Chess "ersus 6acific2 CSCSM Jccasional 6aper 'um)er -.f China #ere to deprive .ai#an that no longer has an" 0international space1 Cor perhaps2 more acc ratel" 0diplomatic face1G #ill have less to lose% .ei/ing event all" o t-ids . ?hailand and the 6hilippines.pdf# neither .>>>. coups in Fi@i. http://chl. $ay .edu.he harsh d"namics of the diplomatic chess game in the 4acific mean .>>S.ei/ing nor . 5 6olitical +u )y.-==-0.aipei more amena-le to .5 Fe is the author of 'Australia Finds Fome I ?he Choices and Chances of an Asia 6acific 7ourney'.ai#an of its six diplomatic flags in the So th 4acific2 #o ld that ma!e .ai#an in the 4acific2 that ma" ma!e .>>3.au/pu)lications/csds/cscsd!op-!/!chapter!-. t if .5 Assi nments in his career as a correspondent ha"e included the Fal*lands <ar.aipei’s -ehavio r less predicta-le% A .ei/ingY 'istor" and h man nat re hint that states pressed too hard can sometimes lash o t% 4erhaps China sho ld consider the potential for diplomatic victor" prod cing an nfort nate political o tcome – an angr" or isolated . pu)lished in .

$ost %uropeans recoil at the %urope 1s sta)ility depends on the uarantee. ?hey )elie"e the order the world en@oys today e9ists independently of American power.ai#an go get strateg" -ac!#ards.ei/ing than to enco rage its hopes to .ai#an . the Gnited States is the dominant na"al power e"erywhere. 'ations would compete for na"al dominance at least in their own re ions and possi)ly )eyond. &t is shaped )y confi urations of power.hoo"er. ?hird. ?hat could ma*e wars )etween them less li*ely. &n a enuinely multipolar world. #hose leaders have made a -et on U%S% sta"ing po#er and the associated -enefits of strengthening relation s #ith America as a hed e a ainst China. ?he international order we *now today reflects the distri)ution of power in the world since <orld <ar ii.ai#an freedom is !e" to m ltiple alliances2 relations #ith . Such order as e9ists in the world rests not merely on the oodwill of peoples )ut on a foundation pro"ided )y American power.. howe"er distant and one hopes Gnited States could step in to chec* any dan erous de"elopment on the continent. it would not. For instance.A$( . &t is easy )ut also dan erous to underestimate the role the Gnited States plays in pro"idin a measure of sta)ility in the world e"en as it also disrupts power. it #o ld transform the calc l s of vital American allies li!e Japan and So th ?orea. that the often succum) to a )asic lo ical fallacy. and status. ?hey ima ine that in a world where American power was diminished. A different confi uration of power. . such that other nations cannot compete with it e"en in their home waters.H-. that would not )e possi)le without renewin the dan er of world war. Jne no"el aspect of such a multipolar world is that most of these powers would possess n clear #eapons. where reat powers decided the fate of lesser nations without reference to those nations1 interests I or the human conseLuences of offerin them up to satisfy the appetites of predatory reat powers. the other nations would settle disputes as reat and lesser powers ha"e done in the past: sometimes throu h diplomacy and accommodation )ut often throu h confrontation and wars of "aryin scope. 6olicy +e"iew. ?hey either happily or rud in ly allow the Gnited States 'a"y to )e the uarantor of international waterways and trade routes.ndep >ood . <ere the United States to diminish its influence in the re ions where it is currently the stron est power. that reat eopolitical miracle. )ut e"en today unnecessary. and especially since the end of the Cold <ar. N clear #ar ?agan @ (+o)ert. of the *ind used in <orld <ar i and other ma@or conflicts. intensity. a multipolar world in which the poles were +ussia. it is a)le to play its role as uardian of the waterways. of international access to mar*ets and raw materials such as oil. howe"er.or /pu)lications/policyre"iew/3HH.hoo"er. if it e"er went away. http://www. the aspects of international order that they li*e would remain in place. “%nd of Mreams. 'ationalism in all its forms is )ac*. Senior Associate O Carne ie %ndowment for &nternational 6eace. Finally. %"en when the Gnited States en a es in a war.ll" the United States into a f rther retreat from its commitments in East Asia./-. influence. Armed em)ar os. who might pla si-l" #onder #hether the U%S% commitment to their sec rit" #as e: all" flexi-le. sta)ility. “?he ?aiwan Binchpin”. Such order as e9ists in the world rests not only on the oodwill of peoples )ut also on American power. or it could simply ma*e them more catastrophic. Second. 6eople who )elie"e reater eLuality amon nations would )e prefera)le to the present American predominance thou ht. the Gnited .ndia2 and US hegemon" . would disrupt trade flows in a way that is now impossi)le. and so is international competition for American predominance pre"ents these ri"alries from intensifyin I its re ional as well as its lo)al predominance . Au ust/Septem)er. +eturn of Fistory: &nternational +i"alry and American Beadership”.ndia and *ietnam.#ining 1A (Maniel O Foo"er &nstitution. China. for without it the %uropean nations after <orld <ar && would ne"er ha"e felt secure enou h to reinte rate 8ermany. %"en the %uropean Gnion. http://www. owes its foundin to American power. :ut that 1s not the way it wor*s. Conflict )etween nations would in"ol"e stru les on the oceans as well as on land.mpact – . it #o ld pend the calc lations of ne# U%S% partners li!e . &n a more enuinely multipolar world. and destructi"eness. honor. c tting off an old U%S% all" at a time of rising tensions #ith an assertive China might do less to appease . First. it would resurrect the hosts of $unich and Ealta. 6o rth2 s ch preemptive s rrender #o ld reinforce what remains more a ps"chological than a material realit" of China emerging as a glo-al s perpo#er of America’s standing I which it is not and may ne"er )e. &nternational order does not rest on ideas and institutions.or /pu)lications/policy0re"iew/article/-4=4=D# :ut arg ments to let .htmlen-># ?he @ostlin for status and influence amon these am)itious nations and would0)e nations is a second definin feature of the new post0Cold <ar international system.

States, &ndia, and %urope, would produce its own *ind of order, with different rules and norms reflectin the interests of the powerful states that would ha"e a hand in shapin it. <ould that international order )e an impro"ementR 6erhaps for :ei@in and $oscow it would. :ut it is dou)tful that it would suit the tastes of enli htenment li)erals in the Gnited States and %urope. ?he current order, of course, is not only far from perfect )ut also offers no uarantee a ainst ma@or conflict amon the world 1s reat powers. %"en under

<ar could erupt )etween China and ?aiwan and draw in )oth the Gnited States and 7apan. <ar could erupt )etween +ussia and 8eor ia,
the um)rella of unipolarity, re ional conflicts in"ol"in the lar e powers may erupt. forcin the Gnited States and its %uropean allies to decide whether to inter"ene or suffer the conseLuences of a +ussian "ictory. Conflict )etween

%astern states. ?hese, too, could draw in other reat powers2 includin the Gnited States. Such conflicts may )e una"oida)le no matter what policies the Gnited States pursues. :ut they are more li*ely to erupt if the Gnited States wea*ens or withdraws from its positions of re ional dominance. ?his is especially true in %ast Asia, where
most nations a ree that a relia)le American power has a sta)ili;in and pacific effect on the re ion. ?hat is certainly the "iew of most of China 1s nei h)ors. :ut e"en China, which see*s radually to supplant the Gnited States as the dominant power in the re ion, faces the dilemma that an

&ndia and 6a*istan remains possi)le, as does conflict )etween &ran and &srael or other $iddle

American withdrawal could unleash an am)itious, independent, nationalist 7apan. Conflicts are more li*ely to erupt if the Gnited States withdraws from its positions of re ional dominance. &n %urope, too, the departure of the Gnited States from the scene I e"en if it remained the world1s most powerful nation I could )e desta)ili;in . &t could tempt +ussia to a n e"en more o"er)earin and potentially forceful approach to unruly nations on its periphery. Althou h some realist theorists seem to ima ine that the disappearance of the
So"iet Gnion put an end to the possi)ility of confrontation )etween +ussia and the <est, and therefore to the need for a permanent American role in %urope, history su ests that conflicts in %urope in"ol"in +ussia are possi)le e"en without So"iet communism. &f

this could in time increase the li*elihood of conflict in"ol"in +ussia and its near nei h)ors, which could in turn draw the United States )ac* in under unfa"ora)le circumstances.
the Gnited States withdrew from %urope I if it adopted what some call a strate y of “offshore )alancin ” I

USD;ndia relations avert So th Asian n clear #ar
Schaffer $ (?eresita, Mir O South Asia 6ro am, CS&S, <ashin ton Auarterly, Sprin , Be9is# <ashin ton's increased interest in &ndia since the late -==>s reflects &ndia's economic e9pansion and position as Asia's newest risin power. 'ew Melhi, for its part, is ad@ustin to the end of the Cold <ar. As a result, )oth iant democracies see that they can )enefit )y closer cooperation. For <ashin ton, the ad"anta es include a wider networ* of friends in Asia at a time when the re ion is chan in rapidly, as well as a stron er position from which to help calm possi)le future n clear tensions in the re ion. %nhanced trade and in"estment )enefit )oth countries and are a prereLuisite for impro"ed G.S. relations with &ndia. For &ndia, the country's am)ition to assume a stron er leadership role in the world and to maintain an economy that lifts its people out of po"erty depends critically on ood relations with the Gnited States.

Japan alliance solves m ltiple threats --- escalates to glo-al n clear #ar%
>ates 11 (+o)ert, G.S. Secretary of Mefense, “G.S.07apan Alliance a Cornerstone of Asian Security”, Speech to (eio Gni"ersity, -0-/, http://www.defense. o"/speeches/speech.asp9Rspeechid\-H.=# J"er the course of its history, the G.S.07apan alliance has succeeded at its ori inal core purpose O to deter military a ression and pro"ide an um)rella of security under which 7apan O and the re ion O can prosper. ?oday , our alliance is rowin deeper and )roader as we address a ran e of security challen es in Asia. Some, li*e 'orth (orea, piracy or natural disasters, ha"e )een around for decades, centuries, or since the )e innin of time. Jthers, such as lo)al terrorist networ*s, cy)er attac*s, and nuclear proliferation are of a more recent "inta e. <hat these issues ha"e in common is that they all reLuire multiple nations wor*in to ether O and they also almost always reLuire leadership and in"ol"ement )y *ey re ional

players such as the G.S. and 7apan . &n turn, we e9press our shared "alues )y increasin

our alliance1s capacity to pro"ide humanitarian aid and disaster relief, ta*e part in peace0*eepin operations, protect the lo)al commons, and promote cooperation and )uild trust throu h stren thenin re ional institutions. %"eryone athered here *nows the cripplin de"astation that can )e caused )y natural disasters O and the G.S. and 7apan, alon with our partners in the re ion, reco ni;e that respondin to these crises is a security imperati"e. &n recent years, G.S. and 7apanese forces deli"ered aid to remote earthLua*e0stric*en re ions on &ndonesia, and G.S. aircraft )ased in 7apan helped deli"er assistance to typhoon "ictims in :urma. <e wor*ed to ether in response to the .>>/ &ndian Jcean tsunami, earthLua*es in 7a"a, Sumatra, and Faiti, and most recently followin the floods in 6a*istan. ?hese efforts ha"e demonstrated the forward deployment of G.S. forces in 7apan is of real and life0sa"in "alue. ?hey also pro"ide new opportunities for the G.S. and 7apanese forces to operate to ether )y conductin @oint e9ercises and missions. Furthermore, G.S. and 7apanese troops ha"e )een wor*in on the lo)al sta e to confront the threat of failed or failin states. 7apanese peace*eepers ha"e operated around the world, includin the 8olan Fei hts and %ast ?imor and assisted with the reconstruction of &raL. &n Af hanistan, 7apan represents the second lar est financial donor, ma*in su)stanti"e contri)utions to the international effort )y fundin the salaries of the Af han 'ational 6olice and helpin the Af han o"ernment inte rate former insur ents. 7apan and the Gnited States also continue to cooperate closely to ensure the maritime commons are safe and secure for commercial traffic. Jur maritime forces wor* hand0in0 lo"e in the <estern 6acific as well as in other sea passa es such as the Strait of $alacca )etween $alaysia and &ndonesia, where more than a third of the world1s oil and trade shipments pass throu h e"ery year. Around the Forn of Africa, 7apan has deployed surface ships and patrol aircraft that operate alon side those from all o"er the world drawn )y the common oal to counter piracy in "ital sea lanes. 6articipatin in these acti"ities thrusts 7apan1s military into a relati"ely new, and at times sensiti"e role, as an e9porter of security. ?his is a far cry from the situation of e"en two decades a o when, as & remem)er well as a senior national security official, 7apan was critici;ed for so0called “chec*)oo* diplomacy” O sendin money )ut not troops O to help the anti0Saddam coalition durin the First 8ulf <ar. :y showin more willin ness to send self0defense forces a)road under international auspices O consistent with your constitution O 7apan is ta*in its ri htful place alon side the world1s other reat democracies. ?hat is part of the rationale for 7apan1s )ecomin a permanent mem)er of a reformed Gnited 'ations Security Council. And since these challen es cannot )e tac*led

we must use the stron G.S.07apanese partnership as a platform to do more to stren then multilateral institutions O re ional arran ements that must )e inclusi"e,
throu h )ilateral action alone,

transparent, and focused on results. 7ust a few months a o, & attended the historic first meetin of the AS%A' 6lus %i ht Mefense $inisters $eetin in Fanoi, and am encoura ed )y 7apan1s decision to co0chair the $ilitary $edicine <or*in 8roup. And as a proud 6acific nation, the Gnited States will ta*e o"er the chairmanship of the Asia 6acific %conomic Cooperation Forum this year, followin 7apan1s successful tenure. <or*in throu h re ional and international forums puts our alliance in the )est position to confront some of Asia1s tou hest security challen es. As we ha"e )een reminded once a ain in recent wee*s, none has pro"ed to )e more "e9in and endurin than 'orth (orea. Mespite the hopes and )est efforts of the South (orean o"ernment, the G.S. and our allies, and the international community, the character and priorities of the 'orth (orean re ime sadly ha"e not chan ed. 'orth (orea1s a)ility to launch another con"entional round in"asion is much de raded from e"en a decade or so a o, )ut in other respects it has rown more lethal and desta)ili;in . ?oday, it is 'orth (orea1s pursuit of nuclear

weapons and proliferation of nuclear *now0how and )allistic missile eLuipment that ha"e focused our attention O de"elopments that threaten not @ust the peninsula, )ut the 6acific +im and international sta)ility as well. &n response to a series of pro"ocations O the most recent )ein the sin*in of the Cheonan and 'orth
(orea1s lethal shellin of a South (orean island O 7apan has stood shoulder to shoulder with the +epu)lic of (orea and the Gnited States. Jur three countries continue to deepen our ties throu h the Mefense ?rilateral ?al*s O the *ind of multilateral en a ement amon America1s lon 0standin allies that the G.S. would li*e to see stren thened and e9panded o"er time. <hen and if 'orth (orea1s )eha"ior i"es us any reasons to )elie"e that ne otiations can )e conducted producti"ely and in ood faith, we will wor* with 7apan, South (orea, +ussia, and China to resume en a ement with 'orth (orea throu h the si9 party tal*s. ?he first step in the process should )e a 'orth0South en a ement. :ut, to )e clear, the 'orth must also ta*e concrete steps to honor its international o)li ations and comply with G.'. Security Council +esolutions. Any pro ress towards diffusin the crisis on the (orean 6eninsula must include the acti"e support of the 6eople1s +epu)lic of China O where, as you pro)a)ly *now, & @ust finished an official "isit. China has )een another important player whose economic rowth has fueled the prosperity of this part of the world, )ut Luestions a)out its intentions and opaLue military moderni;ation pro ram ha"e )een a source of concern to its nei h)ors. Auestions a)out China1s rowin role in the re ion manifest themsel"es in territorial disputes O most recently in the incident in Septem)er near the Sen*a*u &slands, an incident that ser"ed as a reminder of the important of America1s and 7apan1s treaty o)li ations to one another. ?he G.S. position on maritime security remains clear: we ha"e a national interest in freedom of na"i ation2 in unimpeded economic de"elopment and commerce2 and in respect for international law. <e also )elie"e that customary international law, as reflected in the G' Con"ention on the Baw of the Sea, pro"ides clear uidance on the appropriate use of the maritime domain, and ri hts of access to it. 'onetheless, & disa ree with those who portray China as an ine"ita)le strate ic ad"ersary of the Gnited States. <e welcome a China that plays a constructi"e role on the world sta e. &n fact, the oal of my "isit was to impro"e our military0to0military relationship and outline areas of common interest. &t is precisely )ecause we ha"e Luestions a)out China1s military O @ust as they mi ht ha"e similar Luestions a)out the Gnited States O that & )elie"e a healthy dialo ue is needed. Bast fall, 6resident J)ama and 6resident Fu 7in ?ao made a commitment to ad"ance sustained and relia)le defense ties, not a relationship repeatedly interrupted )y and su)@ect to the "a aries of political weather. Jn a personal note, one of the thin s & learned from my e9perience dealin with the So"iet Gnion durin my earlier time in o"ernment was the importance of maintainin a strate ic dialo ue and open lines of communication. %"en if specific a reements did not result O on nuclear weapons or anythin else O this dialo ue helped us understand each other )etter and lessen the odds of misunderstandin and miscalculation. ?he Cold <ar is mercifully lon o"er and the circumstances with China today are "astly different O )ut the importance of maintainin dialo ue is as important today. For the last few minutes &1"e discussed some of the most pressin security challen es O alon with the most fruitful areas of re ional cooperation O facin the G.S. and 7apan in Asia. ?his en"ironment O in terms of threats and opportunities O is mar*edly different than the conditions that led to the for in of the G.S07apan defense partnership in the conte9t of a ri"alry )etween two lo)al superpowers. :ut on account of the scope, comple9ity and lethality of these challen es, & would ar ue that our alliance is more necessary, more rele"ant, and more important than e"er. And maintainin the "itality and credi)ility of the alliance reLuires moderni;in our force posture and other defense arran ements to )etter reflect the threats and military reLuirements of this century. For e9ample, 'orth (orea1s )allistic missiles O alon with the proliferation of these weapons to other countries O reLuire a more effecti"e alliance missile defense capa)ility. ?he G.S.07apan partnership in missile defense is already one of the most ad"anced of its *ind in the world. &t was American and 7apanese A%8&S ships that to ether monitored the 'orth (orean missile launches of .>>D and .>>3. ?his partnership Owhich relies on mutual support, cuttin ed e technolo y, and information sharin O in many ways reflect our alliance at its )est. ?he G.S. and 7apan ha"e nearly completed the @oint de"elopment of a new ad"anced interceptor, a system that represents a Lualitati"e impro"ement in our a)ility to thwart any 'orth (orean missile attac*. ?he co0location of our air0 and missile0defense commands at Eo*ota O and the associated opportunities for information sharin , @oint trainin , and coordination in this area O pro"ide enormous "alue to )oth countries. As & alluded to earlier, ad"ances )y the Chinese military in cy)er and anti0satellite warfare pose a potential challen e to the a)ility of our forces to operate and communicate in this part of the 6acific. Cy)er attac*s can also come from any direction and from a "ariety of sources O state, non0state, or a com)ination thereof O in ways that could inflict enormous dama e to ad"anced, networ*ed militaries and societies. Fortunately, the G.S. and 7apan maintain a Lualitati"e ed e in satellite and computer technolo y O an ad"anta e we are puttin to ood use in de"elopin ways to counter threats to the cy)er and space domains. 7ust last month, the 8o"ernment of 7apan too* another step forward in the e"olution of the alliance )y releasin its 'ational Mefense 6ro ram 8uidelines O a document that lays out a "ision for 7apan1s defense posture. ?hese uidelines en"ision: A more mo)ile and deploya)le force structure2 %nhanced &ntelli ence, Sur"eillance, and +econnaissance capa)ilities2 and A shift in focus to 7apan1s southwest islands. ?hese new uidelines pro"ide an opportunity for e"en deeper cooperation )etween our two countries O and the emphasis on your southwestern islands underscores the importance of our alliance1s force posture. And this is a *ey point. :ecause e"en as the alliance continues to e"ol"e O in strate y, posture, and military capa)ilities O to deal with this century1s security challen es, a critical component will remain the forward presence of G.S. military forces in 7apan.

<ithout such a presence: 'orth (orea1s military pro"ocations could )e e"en more outra eous 00 or worse2 China mi ht )eha"e more asserti"ely towards its nei h)ors2
&t would ta*e lon er to e"acuate ci"ilians affected )y conflict or natural disasters in the re ion2 &t would )e more

difficult and costly to conduct ro)ust @oint e9ercises O such as the recent (een Sword e9ercise O that hone the G.S. and 7apanese militaries a)ility to operate and, if necessary, fi ht to ether2 and <ithout the forward presence of G.S. forces in 7apan, there would )e less info rmation sharin and coordination, and we would

*now less a)out re ional threats and the military capa)ilities of our potential ad"ersaries.

'ow.or /research/reports/. ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e. Mespite a peace treaty si nalin the end of 8uatemala's lon 0runnin uerrilla war. . throu h offers of massi"e economic assistance. ?he Fistorian. Mirector of the Asian Studies Center O Ferita e. r!ina 6aso2 Chad2 >am-ia2 5ala#i2 Sao . American 7ournal of Chinese Studies. it has rarely us ed its "eto power. Asian 6erspecti"e. &n 7une -==D. pSS. s)ha P A veto po#er at the UN Sec rit" Co ncil provides China #ith a ver" po#erf l #eapon to re#ard or p nish its friends and foes.ai#an . -> &ssue . ->0-0$88F N“+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America”.ai#anMs expense.com/content/pdf/->.ai#an .roo!es and Shin E (6eter.4 Since China was seated in the Gnited 'ations in -=S-.ei/ing has sec red recognition from six additional African co ntries at . China stalled a 7anuary -==S G' motion to appro"e -HH peace*eepers to o"ersee .Africa . and chapters in se"eral )oo*s. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep. http://lin*. respecti"ely.0.. 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism.ai#anMs diplomatic infl ence #as not a high priorit" on ChinaMs Africa polic" agenda ntil the earl" 1HH8s2 #hen the competition -et#een China and . Eet 2 it is not hesitant to se its veto if crossed over the matter of . C rtailing .ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies. and South Africa switched their reco nition from ?aipei to :ei@in in -==3. .ai#anMs fe# remaining connections in Africa2 China has also so ght repeatedl" to maintain the s pport of its African partners for its Oone ChinaO polic" via diplomatic attention2 economic investment2 and other assistance./chinas0influence0in0africa0 implications0for0the0united0states# Another significant Chinese o-/ective in Africa is to isolate .n addition to ongoing efforts to sever .>>H. Bi has pu)lished do.3SS>. 8uinea0:issau. Col.ai#an. and Bi)eria switched reco nition to :ei@in in ..pdf. and 7i Fye. .>>D/>. Asian Affairs. +esearch Assistant in the Asian Studies Center O Ferita e. .mpact.sprin er. $assachusetts. 6olicy Studies 7ournal.Defense Alt ca se. China fo ght the extension of the UN mission in 'aiti2 to p nish the Cari--ean nation for its appeal for UN acceptance of .>>4 shortly )efore China dispatched 6BA troops to assist with Bi)erian water0supply pro@ects. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science.A$( .. Besotho and 'i er switched their diplomatic reco nition to the 6+C in -==/ and -==D. http://www.aipei to#ard nification% Seven African co ntries-. ?he Central African +epu)lic.herita e.=.ai#an diplomaticall" in an effort to press re .->>S/:F>. “China's &nfluence in Africa: &mplications for the Gnited States.” ?he Ferita e Foundation.ome and 4rincipe2 Senegal2 and S#a+iland-c rrentl" maintain official diplomatic relations #ith .ai#an .ai#an to #in diplomatic recognition from individ al African co ntries escalated drasticall" . China doesn’t need to expand infl ence – UN veto po#er is s fficient to press re co ntries Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er.

it is this tr mp card the 43C holds that means that .com/flashpoints0)lo /.he stic! is that mainland China #ill invade to reesta-lish control o"er ?aiwan.Y http://thediplomat. a process that is e9pected to continue with $a securin a second four0year term in 7anuary. then Chinese Forei n $inistry spo*esperson. :eyond trade. and /oint exercises -" the co ntries’ respective coast g ards are no# held ever" other "ear since . .ai#an a stic! and a carrot . &ndeed. Y <hy China could in"ade ?aiwan O and et away with it. Y?aiwan Fed es its :ets on China.ai#an . :ut if a report released )y ?aiwan1s $inistry of 'ational Mefense ($'M# on Friday is any indication.oth the . ?aiwanese o"ernment officials don1t appear to )e con"inced that such datente will last for "ery lon . . <ithout dou)t. visits to .>->.ai#an’s niversities. . a limited n m-er of Chinese can no# st d" at .ei/ing in the United Nations%Y . Y > atemalaMs ties #ith . Chinese to rism to the island has -oomed. 'ot many countries in the re ion wish to )e the first to defy China and ris* the almost certain economic and political retri)ution that mi ht follow.ai#an had destro"ed an" -asis for cooperation from .Y http://www.H China let it pass after e9tractin a compromise from 8uatemala that it would no lon er support ?aipei1s G' mem)ership )id.historyfuturenow. .disarmament )ecause of 8uatemala's ties with ?aiwan.>-. No militar" invasion to regain . &n addition to the landmar* %conomic Cooperation Framewor* A reement (%CFA# si ned in 7une .ai#an and China2 especially at the economic le"el.t !no#s that time is on its side% Fowe"er.-the"Mll se other methods 6ischer 11D$@ 00 clean ener y entrepreneur and is the founder and C%J of Bumicity Btd (?ristan.ai#an Strait toda" are the -est the"’ve -een in "ears2 if not ever. ?his was only the third "eto :ei@in has used since it reentered the G' in the early -=S>s. a mo"e that o)"iates the need for con"ertin the currency into G.S.t co ld sho# ./>=/>4/taiwan0hed es0its0)ets0a ainst0 china/# . &n the words of Shen 8uofan . then 6resident Bee ?en 0hui "owed that ?aiwan would Ydo whate"er it canY to help its Central American ally. =/4.ai#an-China relations higher than ever Cole 1$ 00 ?aipei0)ased @ournalist who focuses on military issues in 'ortheast Asia and in the ?aiwan Strait (7. . dollars )efore a transaction can )e made. ." a n m-er of "ardstic!s2 relations in the . the pace of normali+ation in relations -et#een .ai#an is largel" na-le to sec re recognition from economicall" f nctioning nations .D ChinaMs veto po#er as a permanent mem-er of the UN Sec rit" Co ncil ena-les it to exert press re )ecause Faiti's internal insta)ility ma*es it dependent on peace*eepin troops. .ai#an -" Chinese officials have -ecome almost ro tine. mostly for the purpose of sea0rescue operations in the waters off ?aiwan1s (inmen and China1s Wiamen. includin an a reement reached on Friday that will allow )an*s in ?aiwan to clear renmin)i transactions.ai#anese . . has accelerated dramaticall" since 5a Ein 0@eou of the Chinese 'ationalist 6arty (($?# #as elected in .he 4eople’s 3ep -lic of China has -een ver" patient #ith .ai#an to re/oin mainland China under the authority of the 6+C.com/wp/why0china0could0in"ade0taiwan0and0 et0 away0with0it/# . it co ld also force the iss e #ithin the next fe# "ears and force .ai#an.>>3.>->. the o"ernments on )oth sides ha"e in*ed at least -D a reements touchin on "arious aspects of cross0strait relations. $ichael./ &n contrast.>-..

.ai#an's economy. &on’t happen – no political #ill for independence in . -earing in mind that the US has a h ge trade deficit #ith -oth China and .ation.S.sinesses. the rapid rowth of ChinaMs econom" has given . &n addition. opinion polls ha"e consistently reported that appro9imately H8 percent of the electorate opposes immediately declarin independence. &ndeed.or /sta)le/. &n .ai#an and that the ?aiwan Straits are effecti"ely already off limits to the GS 'a"y. it was the only time his party has done so since the country )e an holdin presidential elections in -==D. :y . it )ou ht appro9 imatelE /> percent of ?aiwan's e9ports#. -/-0-/3.ai#an% As a res lt of such factors..ai#an's prosper ity )efore the Gnited States would ha"e time to inter"ene. many on the island ha"e de"eloped a strong sense of O.ai#an +o)ert S.ool. than*s to its accelerated missile and aircraft deployments.siness classes increasingl" open to re nification with mainland China.ai#an .o"ernment and the mainland Chinese government sa" that the" are not separate nations2 . and democrati. Forei n Affairs. associate of the Fair)an* Center for Chinese Studies at Far"ard Gni"ersity.ei/ing leverage over . $88E N“?aiwan's fadin &ndependence $o"ement”.>>>o with 4= percent of the "ote only )ecause the opposition split )etween his two com petitors. even if it co ld afford to do so2 #hich it cannot2 or #ere a-le to do so2 #hich it co ld not. and a mem)er of the Council on Forei n +elations. :ut after ?aiwan's half century of autonomy.ai#anMs independence. Althou h he won a ma@ority in .ai#anMs voters% For a decade. s)ha Pkk%rrors that appear in the document occur )ecause of the 6MF Formattin +%A(&'8 G6 &S FA+M ?J MJ ?A&<A' SFA+%S a culture. 3H. the mainland Chinese mar!et has -ecome increasingl" attractive to . therefore. senior ad"isor of the security studies pro ram at the $assachusetts &nstitute of ?echnolo y. economic pro ress. Col. 3oss is one of the foremost American specialists on Chinese forei n and defense policy and G.>>D#.>>>. 'o. pp. and since $88$2 more than half of . lan ua e. http://www.ai#anese companies2 and -etter mar!et access ma!ing the . As a carrot. :y the mid0= os.ai#an identit"2O and they )elie"e that ?aiwan now merits international reco nition as a so"erei n country.>>H. :ut it has not res lted in #idespread calls for a formal declaration of independence% *oters2 reflecting . to . Fe is a professor of political science at :oston Colle e.ai#anese . and the resultin contrast )etween ?aiwan and authoritarian China. Fe won the presidency in.ei/ingMs militar" and economic hold on the island2 have preferred to accommodate ChinaMs opposition to . China co ld ca se chaos in . Chen's political success reflects electoral a)errations rather than the popularity of his policy toward the mainland.ei/ing had developed the capa-ilit" to destro" .>>4-=-S.aMi#anMs most important export mar!et (in . ?he 43C co ld offer increased incentives. 0 Apr.0China relations. and herita e with mainland China. it is hard to see the US defending . the mainland -ecame . the Y?aiwan identityY mo"ement had )ecome a ma@or force in ?aiwanese politics.@stor. . .ai#anMs foreign investment has gone there% &itho t firing a shot .t one2 #ith different governments.he US #o ld not enter into a 0civil #ar1 #ith the t#o Chinas. such as low cost loans from the 6+C.>>/. ($ar. %Lually mportant. And in . . Chen and other politicians #ho s pport independence do not command m ch s pport among .

Col. they ha"e )ecome increasin ly in"ol"ed in the G' system in terms of their economic and security interests. Fonduras. he and his supporters repeatedly indicated that they mi ht see* to adopt a new constitution that would reflect what he called ?aiwan's Ypresent realities.->>S/:F>.ei/ing and . Chen has continued to ris* war )y pushin for independence.e. ?he ($? attracted popular support even #hen it was led -" a lac!l ster presidential candidate and #as infamo s for its corr ption% Mespite his shallow support and the mainland's rowin a)ility to desta)ili. ->0-0$88F N“+i"alry )etween ?aiwan and the 6+C in Batin America”. &n spite of stron opposition from :ei@in .sprin er. Asian 6erspecti"e. Economic development is irrelevant – it’s a diplomatic competition2 not trade--ased Fe Li is 6rofessor of 6olitical Science at $errimac* Colle e in 'orth Ando"er. 8uatemala.Y perhaps )y chan in the country's formal name from Ythe +epu)lic of ChinaY to Ythe +epu)lic of ?aiwanY or )y renouncin ?aipei's formal territorial claims to the mainland. in 'o"em)er . Some Central American and the Cari))ean nations that ha"e diplomatic relations with ?aiwan are amon the stalwart )ac*ers of ?aiwan1s G' mem)ership )id. 6olicy Studies 7ournal. commitment to defend ?aiwan. Jn Au ust D. ?he M66 lost the elections. and 6anama @ointly reLuested that the G' 8eneral Assem)ly include a new a enda item entitled “consideration of e9ceptional situation of the +epu)lic of China in ?aiwan in . -==4.aipei.=. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science2 Sep. rural insta)ility. and the re ime's declinin le itimacy#.3SS>.aipei from s ch moves. $assachusetts. com)ined with the G. which was lon associated with "iolent repression of the democracy mo"ement. ?aipei has mana ed to arner support to raise that issue at the G' since the early -==>s. &n the run0up to the le islati"e elections of Mecem)er . Chen won )y only a o. American 7ournal of Chinese Studies. -> &ssue .ei/ing responded to Chen's provocations -" escalating its threats to se force2 prompting the . ?his study is supported )y a Ful)ri ht scholarship and a faculty de"elopment rant from $errimac* Colle e. ar uin that China's domestic pro)lems (such as hi h unemploy ment. %l Sal"ador.>>/. frustratin Chen's plan to amend the constitution.>>/.ens of articles in @ournals such as 7ournal of Strate ic Studies. voters have consistentl" -ac!ed the so-called mainlander parties. <hile many of ?aiwan1s diplomatic allies may not ha"e much )ilateral state )usiness to do with mainland China.e ?aiwan. 6ro)lems of 6ost0Communism. Mespite the widespread )e lief that ?aiwan has an identity separate from China's. :ut Chen and his supporters dismissed such threats as empty tal*. ?he Fistorian. includin the (uomintan (($?#.i percent mar in0after an alle ed assassination attempt on Chen and his unnin mate the day )efore the "ote. 7ournal of Chinese 6olitical Science. http://lin*. 'icara ua. for e9ample.. Fu 7intao. and chapters in se"eral )oo*s.Y . Asian Affairs. pSS. :ush e"en pu)licly critici.S. :eli.pdf. :ei@in has lon maintained that it would consider such chan es acts of war.ed Chen and affirmed his opposition to ?aiwanese independence in a @oint press conference with China's president. had reduced China to a Ypaper ti er. Costa +ica. s)ha P Lo--"ing Latin American s pport at the United Nations is of cr cial importance for -oth .>>H.com/content/pdf/->. Bi has pu)lished do. sh administration to step in and disco rage . 6resident 8eor e <..>>/.

For instance.and ained official mem)ership in the forum under the name “Chinese ?aipei.his involved not onl" the traditional methods of lavish entertainment for visiting Latin American leaders2 . &n addition. ?aiwan has steadily )een ainin international reco nition as an economic entity. China dispatched a -4>0 man “special police” unit to Faiti to )e part of a G' peace*eepin unit.ations. +e ional Jr ani.” . &n spite of :ei@in 1s stron opposition for ?aiwan to @oin international or ani. )ased on the principle of uni"ersality. .n general2 -oth . :ei@in has )een interested in the %ast Asia0Batin American Forum.ai#an la nched its t#elfth -id to enter the United Nations2 #ith fifteen allies presenting a case #hich for the first time refers to c rrent high tensions #ith China2 arg ing the" #ill -e alleviated if the island /oins the #orld -od"% 6o r of these fifteen allies are from Central America and the Cari--ean. then Forei n $inister ?an 7ia9uan attended the first forei n ministers meetin of the %ast Asia0Batin American Forum held in Santia o. :ei@in was attracted )y the &nter0American Me"elopment :an* (&M:# in an effort to accelerate economic relation with Batin American countries. in Fe)ruary .>>>.>>/. &n Septem)er . . $oreo"er. ?aiwan and the 6+C ha"e intensified their competition in re ional international or ani. &t is the first deployment of Chinese forces to the <estern Femisphere. China "oted for (not a ainst# the G' resolution of deployment of a multinational force in Faiti to restore law and order in the Cari))ean country thou h Faiti maintains diplomatic ties with ?aipei. &n 7une -==/. the +JC )ecame an official o)ser"er of the System for &nte ration of Central America (S&CA#.S . China was willin to allow the model for dual participation on the &nternational Jlympic Committee (&JC# and the Asian Me"elopment :an* (AM:#. . China )ecame the first Asian country to )e an o)ser"er to the Batin American &nte ration Association.t also increased their exchanges #ith representatives of political parties2 la-or gro ps2 #omen’s organi+ations2 and militar" officials% . which disallowed the use the name of the +epu)lic of China. &n $ay -==S.ilding a -roader -ase of political infl ence% .t #ere sef l in . :ei@in has )een more careful to use the "eto power e"en if ?aiwan issue is in"ol"ed in the case.the international conte9t. &n Septem)er -==4. &t participated alon side Fon (on and :ei@in in the Asia06acific %conomic Cooperation (A6%C# conference held in Seoul in -==.aipei and . &n $arch . China was admitted into the +&CAB+E :%?<%%' ?A&<A' A'M ?F% 6+C &' BA?&' A$%+&CA 3S Cari))ean Me"elopment :an*.ations in Batin America and the Cari))ean.ei/ing have attempted to shore p their infl ence in Latin America thro gh more extensive contacts% .>>/.>>-. China has participated in regional agencies of the United Nations2 s ch as UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Cari))ean (%CBAC# since the 6+C returned to G' in the early -=S>s.n $88K2 . China is pushin for re ional political and economic roupin it mi ht play a *ey role. Chile. Since the late -==>s.hat sho#s that China’s eagerness and capacit" to pla" an increasingl" important role in the &estern 'emisphere .ations $eanwhile.” &n . Since the late -=3>s.ei/ing has tried to -olster its image as a responsi-le -ig po#er% For that reason.3 .hese exchanges2 also !no#n as 0visit diplomac"21 cost them comparativel" little in monetar" terms . China has adopted a cautious and conser"ati"e attitude toward G' peace*eepin operations. ?aiwan has esta)lished formal wor*in relations with the &M: and the Central American :an* for +econstruction and Me"elopment as well. China officially applied to @oin the &M:. the first from outside of the <estern Femisphere.

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