Population Investigation Committee

BenogvapIic Tvansilion TIeov

AulIov|s) BudIe KivI
Bevieved vovI|s)
Souvce FopuIalion Sludies, VoI. 50, No. 3 |Nov., 1996), pp. 361-387
FuIIisIed I Population Investigation Committee
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FopuIalion Sludies, 50 |1996), 361-387
Fvinled in Oveal Bvilain
BenogvapIic Tvansilion TIeov*
BUBLEY KIBKl
BenogvapI is a science sIovl on lIeov, Iul vicI in quanliJicalion. In spile oJ lIis il Ias
pvoduced one oJ lIe Iesl-docunenled genevaIizalions in lIe sociaI sciences lIe
denogvapIic lvansilion.
TIe 50 eavs oJ FopuIalion Sludies vougII covev lIe peviod in nodevn denogvapI
in vIicI lIe denogvapIic lvansilion Ias Ieen a Ieading lopic. B convenlion, FvanI
Noleslein's avlicIe puIIisIed in 19451 is vegavded as ils Jivsl deJinilion, aIlIougI
Noleslein did nol veJev lo Iis genevaIizalion as a 'lvansilion':2 lIe Jivsl lo use lIis
expvession vas AdoIpIe Landv in Iis IooI enlilIed La BevoIulion BenogvapIique
vIicI vas puIIisIed in 1934.3
WIal is denogvapIic lvansilion lIeov? Slvipped lo essenliaIs il slales lIal socielies
lIal expevience nodevnizalion pvogvess Jvon a pve-nodevn vegine oJ IigI JevliIil and
IigI novlaIil lo a posl-nodevn one in vIicI IolI ave Iov. TIe levn 'nodevnizalion',
is nol deJined, nov does il incIude lIe cvuciaI queslions aIoul causalion lIal Jovn lIe
suIjecl oJ nucI nodevn denogvapIic Iilevaluve.
Fov sone, lvansilion lIeov Iies al lIe cenlve oJ nodevn scienliJic denogvapI.
Benen Ias caIIed il 'lIe cenlvaI pveoccupalion oJ nodevn denogvapI'.4 To olIevs il
is a non-lIeov lo Ie disnissed as an unpvoven genevaIizalion unvovlI oJ nucI
discussion.5
THE FOBEBUNNEBS
TIe denogvapIic lvansilion nodeI Iegan as a cIassiJicalion oJ popuIalions diJJevenlialed
I diJJevenl conIinalions oJ JevliIil and novlaIil. TIe Jivsl JovnuIalion in lIe EngIisI
denogvapIic Iilevaluve is lIal I Wavven TIonpson, puIIisIed in 1929.6 He speciJied
lIvee lpes oJ counlvies vilI diJJevenl vales oJ popuIalion gvovlI. TIe Jivsl |Ovoup A)
veve lIose vilI JaIIing vales oJ incvease and vIicI veve Jacing polenliaI popuIalion
decIine. AIlIougI novlaIil in lIese counlvies vas Iov, lIeiv vapidI decIining JevliIil
pvesages Jivsl a slalionav, and Ialev a decIining popuIalion. IncIuded in lIis calegov
veve lIe counlvies oJ Weslevn Euvope and ovevseas counlvies vIicI Iad Ieen sellIed I
innigvanls oJ Euvopean ovigin.
Ovoup B consisls oJ counlvies in vIicI IolI IivlI and dealI vales Iad JaIIen, Iul
vIeve dealI vales Iad decIined eavIiev and nove vapidI lIan IivlI vales. As a vesuIl lIeiv
*
HeIpJuI connenls Jvon AnsIe CoaIe, CIavIes HivscInan, and CIvis WiIson ave gvaleJuII acInovIedged.
l Food BeseavcI
Inslilule,
SlanJovd
Univevsil,
USA.
1
FvanI Noleslein, 'FopuIalion TIe Iong viev', in T. ScIuIlz |ed.), FoodJov lIe WovId |CIicago, 1945)
pp. 36-57. TIougI, as noled Ialev, il as nol, in Jacl, lIe Jivsl slalenenl oJ lIe lIeov.
2
KingsIe Bavis veJevved lo lIe lvansilion in a puIIicalion lIal Ie ediled vIicI vas puIIisIed al lIe sane
line as Noleslein's avlicIe. K. Bavis |ed.) 'WovId popuIalion in lvansilion', AnnaIs oJ lIe Anevican Acaden
oJ FoIilicaI and SociaI Science, 237 |1943), especiaII lIe Jivsl cIaplev vvillen I IinseIJ.
A. Landv, La Be'voIulion BeinogvapIique, |Favis 1934).
F. Benen, 'EavI JevliIil decIine in Auslvia-Hungav. A Iesson in denogvapIic lvansilion', in B. V.
OIass and B. BeveIIe |eds.), FopuIalion and SociaI CIange, |London, 1972).
5 CJ. B. CoIenan and B. ScIoJieId |eds.), TIe Slale oJ Modevn FopuIalion TIeov. FovvavdJvon MaIlIus,
|Nev YovI, 1986), especiaII lIe inlvoduclion.
6
W. S. TIonpson, 'FopuIalion'. Anevican JouvnaI oJ SocioIog, 34 |1929), pp. 959-975.
361
362 BUBLEY KIBK
popuIalions veve gvoving vev vapidI, unliI JaIIing IivlI vales vouId Iving aIoul a
slalionav, and lIen a decIining popuIalion. IncIuded in lIis gvoup veve lIe counlvies
oJ Easlevn and SoulIevn Euvope. TIonpson poinled oul lIal lIeiv denogvapIic
silualion vas conpavaIIe lo lIal oJ counlvies in Ovoup A sone 35 lo 40 eavs eavIiev.
Bul since dealI vales veve nov JaIIing nove vapidI lIan in lIe pasl, vales oJ naluvaI
incvease in lIis gvoup veve gvealev lIan lIose expevienced eavIiev in counlvies in
Ovoup A.
Counlvies in Ovoup C in vIicI neilIev IivlI nov dealI vales veve undev conlvoI veve
cIassiJied as 'MaIlIusian'.7 TIonpson suggesled lIal lIis gvoup conlained Ielveen 70
and 75 pev cenl oJ lIe vovId's popuIalion. Bul Iecause dala veve genevaII spavse, Ie
conJined Iis anaIsis lo lIvee Iavge counlvies in vIicI dala veve avaiIaIIe Japan, India
and Bussia. He Jound sone evidence oJ cIange in Japan, Iul IillIe in eilIev India ov
Bussia. He pvedicled lIal popuIalion gvovlI in Bussia vouId Ie nucI Iavgev lIan in
India, Iecause oJ ils nucI Iavgev vesouvce Iase. He lIougIl lIal il vouId laIe lIvee lo
Jouv decades, IeJove nan oJ lIe counlvies in Ovoup C enleved Ovoup B. A good
Jovecasl!
TIonpson's vougI Jovecasls oJ eavI popuIalion decIine in Ovoup A pvoved lo Ie in
evvov Iecause Ie pvojecled IivlI vales lo decIine IineavI. He pvedicled lIal dive poIilicaI
eJJecls vouId vesuIl Jvon exisling denogvapIic lvends
'Is il pvoIaIIe lIal peopIes in Ovoups B and C viII sil quielI I and slavve vIiIe lIe Ovoup
A counlvies enjo lIe Iion's sIave oJ lIe good lIings oJ lIe eavlI?'.8
Hovevev, Ie did pvesenl lIe lvansilion as a conlinuing gIoIaI genevaIizalion.
TIougI TIonpson conlinued lo vavn oJ lIe consequences in nan oJ Iis suIsequenl
vvilings, Ie did nol cavv Iis lpoIog JuvlIev. In lIe sevevaI edilions oJ Iis popuIav lexl
on popuIalion pvoIIens Ie did nol use lIis lpoIog, nov did Ie veJev lo lIe lvansilion
as sucI. In Iis cIaplev enlilIed 'Sone popuIalion lIeovies since MaIlIus' Iis lpoIog
and lIe lvansilion ave nol even nenlioned! AppavenlI TIonpson lIougIl lIal neilIev
couId Ie descviIed as a lIeov.
BalIev suvpvisingI, TIonpson's lpoIog vas nol laIen up in lIe EngIisI
denogvapIic Iilevaluve Jov sone 15 eavs. TIis is cuvious, Iecause in 1934 Landv Iad
puIIisIed La Be'voIulion Be'nogvapIique, in vIicI Ie deveIoped lIe sane Iasic ideas as
TIonpson lIougI Ie did nol appeav lo Ie JaniIiav vilI Iis vovI.
Landv, loo, posluIaled lIvee slages oJ popuIalion deveIopnenl pvinilive,
inlevnediale, and conlenpovav, vougII equivaIenl lo TIonpson's lIvee gvoups. In a
seclion enlilIed En quoi a consisle' Ia ve'voIulion dinogvapIique',9 Ie, IiIe TIonpson,
Jovecasl lIal lIe nev vegine vouId spvead lIvougIoul lIe vovId. In Iis viev, il Iad
aIvead 'conqueved' aII lIe Euvopean counlvies, as veII as sone dislanl |i.e. ovevseas)
counlvies. 'Fav Jvon Ieing aIsuvd lIeve ave veasons lo lIinI lIal il viII evenluaII laIe
ovev lIe enlive vovId'. He aIso pvedicled lIal in lIe 'nev' counlvies in vIicI lIe
lvansilion cane Ialev, decIines in IolI IivlI and dealI vales vouId Ie Jaslev.
Landv pvovided a nucI JuIIev expIanalion lIan TIonpson oJ lIe veasons Jov lIe
decIine in novlaIil and JevliIil. Modevn novlaIil decIine vas unpvecedenled in Iunan
Iislov. Il is nucI easiev lo expIain lIan JevliIil decIine lIe veduclion oJ epidenics I
vaccinalion and Iellev Igiene, inpvoved diagnosis and lvealnenl oJ disease, veduclion
oJ Janines, Jevev dealIs Jvon vioIence and civiI vavs, veduclions in inJanl novlaIil, and
7 'FopuIalion inevilaII incveases vIen lIe neans oJ suIsislence incvease.'
|T.
B. MaIlIus An
Essa
on
FopuIalion, VoI. 1 |1826). p. 314 in lIe edilion puIIisIed in London in 1972.
8
Ioc. cil. in Jn. 6, p. 975.
'
Landv, op. cil. in Jn. 3, pp. 45-55.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 363
inpvoved slandavds oJ Iiving aII pIaed a pavl. He did poinl oul, Iovevev, lIal veduclion
in novlaIil couId nov Ie acIieved vilIoul an inpvovenenl in naleviaI veIJave. A
slviIingI nodevn anaIsis!
LiIe evevone eIse, Landv Jound JevliIil veduclions Iavdev lo expIain, excepl in lIe
pvoxinale sense oJ lIe incveased use oJ conlvaceplion. He IvusIes aside nolions lIal lIe
decIine vas due lo pIsioIogicaI Jaclovs ov lo novaI covvuplion, and pvesenls evidence
lIal 'IivlI veslviclion ' |Ie did nol IiIe lIe vovd 'conlvoI') vas in genevaI use in Fvance
as eavI as lIe Iallev pavl oJ lIe eigIleenlI cenluv, and lIus vaised an issue lIal Ias nol
el Ieen JuII vesoIved in discussions oJ lIe lvansilion. WIen did il Iegin? In Weslevn
Euvope, IolI JevliIil and novlaIil Iegan lo decIine Iong IeJove lIe Iasl quavlev oJ lIe
nineleenlI cenluv, lIe dale genevaII quoled Jov lIe Ieginning oJ lIe lvansilion.
WIal is lIe nolive Jov IivlI veguIalion? Landv IeIieves lIen lo Ie IavgeI
'egolislicaI' lIe cosl oJ cIiIdven, lIeiv aIiIil lo cause pain and dislvess lo lIeiv pavenls,
lIe Iinilalion oJ pavenls' aclivilies and veIaxalion, and, oJ couvse, lIe pvoIIens vonen
expevience in pvegnanc and cIiId cave. His anaIsis pveceded nucI oJ lIe Ialev
discussions oJ individuaIisn and 'seIJ-JuIJiInenl' as a cause oJ decIining JevliIil.
Landv vas pavlicuIavI concevned vilI condilions in Fvance, vIeve IivlI vales and
popuIalion gvovlI Iad Ieen Iovev lIan in neigIIouving and vivaI counlvies Jov a Iong
line. His concevn is indicaled I lIe lilIe oJ lIe conpanion piece lo Iis IooI
BepopuIalion el Be'cadence. UnIiIe sone Ialev aulIovs, Landv did nol see lIe
conlenpovav vegine as a nev equiIiIviun oJ IivlIs and dealIs al a Iov IeveI, Iul as a
silualion in vIicI lIe popuIalion oJ Euvope vas Jacing decIine in spile oJ pvospevil.
LiIe TIonpson, Ie vegavded lIis silualion as Javouving invasion I Joveignevs I
peaceJuI ov vavIiIe neans. He IeIieved lIal lIis pvocess Iad aIvead Iegun in Fvance,
and allviIuled lIe decIine oJ Oveece and Bone lo depopuIalion.
AnolIev Jovevunnev vas A. M. Cavv-Saundevs. His IooI WovId FopuIalion Fasl
OvovlI and Fvesenl Tvends vas puIIisIed in 1936, and conlained a Iong discussion oJ
vIal cane Ialev lo Ie caIIed lIe denogvapIic lvansilion in speciJic counlvies. He did nol
JovnuIale a genevaI lIeov oJ lIe lvansilion Iul pvesenled Iis dala and discussed lIe
' snaII JaniI sslen' and ils causes al IenglI. His is a nassive, Iul suvpvisingI veadaIIe
conpendiun oJ naleviaIs veIaling lo popuIalion size and denogvapIic cIange in nan
counlvies. Bul Iecause dala Jov non-Euvopean popuIalions veve Iiniled Iis exanpIes
veve nainI conJined lo Euvope and ovevseas counlvies vilI popuIalions oJ Euvopean
IacIgvound.
THE BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY
TIe denogvapIic lvansilion lIeov vas JovnuIaled I lIe OJJice oJ FopuIalion BeseavcI
in Fvincelon as a cuIninalion oJ ov aIslvaclion Jvon pvevious vovI on TIe Fuluve
FopuIalion oJ Euvope and lIe Soviel Union, vIicI vas puIIisIed in 1944 on IeIaIJ on lIe
League oJ Nalions.10
TIougI Ie vas I no neans lIe Jivsl lo slale lIe essenliaIs oJ lIe lIeov oJ lIe
denogvapIic lvansilion, Noleslein's eavI JovnuIalion is convenlionaII accepled as
cIassic. He vas appavenlI unavave oJ Landv's vovI, and pevIaps aIso oJ TIonpson's.
FevIaps, IiIe TIonpson IinseIJ, Ie did nol iniliaII lIinI oJ Iis JovnuIalion as a lIeov.
He slaled lIal Iis discussion oved nucI lo Cavv-Saundevs's conpiIalion oJ dala and Iis
10
F. W. Noleslein el aI., TIe Fuluve FopuIalion oJ Euvope and lIe Soviel Union FopuIalion Fvojeclions,
1940-1970 |Oeneva, 1944). FavaIIeI vovIs puIIisIed I Fvincelon Univevsil Fvess veve W. Moove, TIe
Econonic BenogvapI oJ Easlevn and SoulIevn Euvope |1945): B. KivI, Euvope's FopuIalion in lIe Inlevvav
Yeavs |1946): and F. Lovinev, TIe FopuIalion oJ lIe Soviel Union Hislov and Fvospecls |1946).
364 BUBLEY KIBK
discussion oJ denogvapIic pvocesses. TIougI nol conpIeleI oviginaI, Noleslein's
slalenenls ave Iucid and sIavpI Jocused. In Iis iniliaI avlicIe |1945), Ie pvesenled a
lpoIog oJ popuIalions as an inlvoduclion lo a veviev oJ lIe pvospecls Jov vovId
popuIalion gvovlI. His lIvee lpes ave cIoseI pavaIIeI lo lIose oJ TIonpson |1929), and
Landv |1934).
Noleslein lIougIl lIal lIe popuIalions oJ Weslevn and CenlvaI Euvope vouId peaI
in aIoul 1950 and decIine lIeveaJlev. TIe covvesponding dale Jov SoulIevn Euvope vas
1970. LiIe TIonpson, Noleslein assuned lIal JevliIil vouId JaII nove sleepI lIan il
did in Jacl. His eslinale oJ lIe lolaI vovId popuIalion in lIe eav 2000 vas 3.3 IiIIion
in conlvasl lo loda's expecled Jiguve oJ neavI six IiIIion. In Iis avlicIe Noleslein
eIaIovaled on lIe veasons Jov JevliIil decIine. In Iis ovn vovds
'TIe nev ideaI oJ lIe snaII JaniI avose lpicaII in lIe uvIan induslviaI sociel. Il is
inpossiIIe lo Ie pvecise aIoul lIe vavious causaI Jaclovs, Iul appavenlI nan veve
inpovlanl. UvIan IiJe slvipped lIe JaniI oJ nan Junclions in pvoduclion, consunplion,
vecvealion, and educalion.... In Jaclov enpIonenl lIe individuaI slood on Iis ovn
acconpIisInenls. TIe nev noIiIil oJ oung peopIe and lIe anonnil oJ cil IiJe veduced
lIe pvessuve lovavd lvadilionaI IeIaviouv exevled I lIe JaniI and lIe connunil. In a
peviod oJ vapidI deveIoping lecInoIog nev sIiIIs veve needed and nev oppovlunilies Jov
individuaI advancenenl avose. Educalion and a valionaI poinl oJ viev Iecane incveasingI
inpovlanl. As a consequence, lIe cosl oJ cIiId-veaving gvev and lIe possiIiIilies Jov econonic
conlviIulions I cIiIdven decIined. FaIIing dealI vales al once incveased lIe size oJ lIe JaniI
lo Ie suppovled and Ioveved lIe inducenenls lo Iave nan IivlIs. Wonen, noveovev, Jound
nev independence Jvon IouseIoId oIIigalions and nev econonic voIes Iess conpaliIIe vilI
cIiIdIeaving'.
SucI quolalions Iave Ieen cvilicized on lIe gvound lIal Noleslein gave loo nucI
allenlion lo socio-econonic Jaclovs as causes oJ lIe decIine, and paid insuJJicienl
allenlion lo cuIluvaI Jaclovs. TIis cvilicisn is pevIaps unJaiv since eIsevIeve Ie veJevs lo
cIanges in novns and vaIues associaled vilI lIe pvocess oJ nodevnizalion. Lalev
aulIovs, sucI as CoaIe and Hoovev, aIso gave pve-eninence lo socio-econonic Jaclovs,
lIougI lIe did nol enliveI ignove cuIluvaI aspecls.12 TIe lIeov enjoed a Ionenoon
vIicI Iasled Jov neavI 20 eavs, and vas videI accepled, al Ieasl as a genevaIizalion.13
THE HISTOBICAL BECOBB
TIe Jivsl najov cvilicisns oJ lIe lIeov veIaled lo lIe accuvac oJ ils pvesenlalion oJ
Euvopean denogvapIic Iislov. TIe oviginaI slalenenls veve siIenl, ov aInosl siIenl, on
vIal na Ie descviIed as lIe Jivsl |ov MaIlIusian) lvansilion in Weslevn Euvope.
MaIlIus advocaled poslponenenl oJ navviage as a neans oJ veslvaining popuIalion
gvovlI. TIis vas vIal acluaII occuvved in Weslevn Euvope and vas lIe cIieJ Jaclov in
a pve-nodevn veduclion oJ JevliIil, lIougI, lo Ie suve, al IigIev lIan nodevn IeveIs.
Lavge diJJevences in pve-nodevn JevliIil veve nol JuII laIen inlo accounl in lIe iniliaI
JovnuIalions oJ lvansilion lIeov. TolaI JevliIil vas as Iov as 5.0 in eavI nineleenlI-
cenluv Sveden, and as IigI as eigIl in suI-SaIavan AJvica loda. A najov veason Jov

F. W. Noleslein, 'Econonic pvoIIens oJ popuIalion cIange', Fvoceedings oJ lIe EigIlI InlevnalionaI
ConJevence oJ AgvicuIluvaI Econonisls, |Nev YovI, 1953), pp. 13-31.
12 A. J. CoaIe and E. M. Hoovev, FopuIalion OvovlI and Econonic BeveIopnenl in Lov Incone FopuIalions,
|Fvincelon, 1958).
13 Tvansilion lIeov Iad aIvead Ieen cIaIIenged as a lIeov I sone nainslvean denogvapIevs. In a
cIassic IooI, Hausev and Buncan veJevved lo il as a 'non-lIeov', Iecause il vas a genevaIizalion vIicI can
onI Ie appIied lo one IislovicaI eva, i.e. lIe noden eva. 'Hence lIeve is a Iig queslion as lo vIelIev il can
pvovide nove lIan vague genevaI suggeslions aIoul lIe Jaclovs IiIeI lo govevn [popuIalion] gvovlI in lIe
Juluve'. F. M. Hausev and 0. B. Buncan, TIe Slud oJ FopuIalion. An Invenlov and AppvaisaI, |CIicago,
1959), p. 14.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 365
lIese diJJevences vas vavialion in lIe pvopovlion oJ vonen oJ cIiIdIeaving age vIo veve
navvied ov Iiving in a union.
BiJJevences in pve-nodevn navilaI JevliIil veve aIso suIslanliaI, aIlIougI lIe causes
ave nol aIvas eas lo speciJ. BiJJevences in Iveasl-Jeeding pvaclices ave IiIeI lo Iave
Ieen one Jaclov. TIeve is aIso evidence lIal in sone socielies lIe uppev cIasses and lIe
Iouvgeoisie pvaclised IivlI conlvoI, and lIus veduced navilaI JevliIil.
AnolIev cvilicisn oJ lIe iniliaI lvansilion lIeov vas lIe assevlion lIal novlaIil
decIine aIvas pveceded JevliIil decIine. Man inslances veve ciled vIeve lIis did nol
appeav lo Iave Ieen lIe case, i.e. vIeve JevliIil and novlaIil decIined sinuIlaneousI,
ov vIeve a JaII in JevliIil acluaII pveceded lIal in novlaIil, as is sIovn in lIe
Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl discussed IeIov.
AnolIev cvilicisn oJ eavI lvansilion lIeov vas lIal in sevevaI Euvopean vegions
acluaI decIine vas nol lied cIoseI lo socio-econonic nodevnizalion, Iul valIev lo
diJJusion vilIin a speciJic cuIluvaI ov Iinguislic vegion. In olIev vovds, indices sucI as
inJanl novlaIil, Iilevac, ov pevcenlage enpIoed in agvicuIluve veve Iess useJuI in
pvedicling lIe onsel oJ JevliIil decIine, vIicI occuvved nove ov Iess sinuIlaneousI
vilIin lIe vegion.
A slviIing exanpIe is lIe slud I BonaId LeslIaegIe oJ WaIIoon |FvencI) and
FIenisI |BulcI) Ianguage connunilies in BeIgiun.14 In Iis slud oJ JevliIil in diJJevenl
connunes Ie denonslvaled nan exanpIes oJ lvin connunes |one FIenisI and one
WaIIoon) vilI vev siniIav socio-econonic cIavaclevislics and silualed onI a Jev
IiIonelves apavl, in vIicI JevliIil IeveIs diJJeved gvealI. TIe dale vIen JevliIil Iegan
lo decIine aIso vavied. ConIining lIe dala Jov lIe lvo vegions inlo a nalionaI Jiguve
pvoduces anIiguous vesuIls. Il sIouId, Iovevev, Ie noled lIal diJJevences Ielveen lovn
and counlv, as veII as in olIev socio-econonic cIavaclevislics pevsisled vilIin Iinguislic
and cuIluvaI vegions.
As CoaIe Ias noled, despile nan oIjeclions, quaIiJicalions, and douIls aIoul lIe
denogvapIic lvansilion lIe Jovce oJ lIe genevaIizalion venains.15 Ils gvealesl slvenglI is
lIe pvediclion lIal lIe lvansilion viII occuv in evev sociel vIicI is expeviencing
nodevnizalion: ils gvealesl veaIness ils inaIiIil lo Jovecasl lIe pvecise lIvesIoId
vequived Jov JevliIil lo JaII. EJJovls lo delevnine lIis lIvesIoId Iave onI Ieen successJuI
in a Iiniled nunIev oJ cases.16 As CoaIe poinled oul in Iis cIassic slalenenl, lIe pvoIIen
in delevnining a veII-deJined lIvesIoId na Ie lIal lIeve is nove lIan one pve-condilion
Jov a decIine in navilaI JevliIil. In aIIvevialed levns lIese ave
|1) FevliIil nusl Ie vilIin lIe caIcuIus oJ conscious cIoice:
|2) Beduced JevliIil nusl Ie [pevceived] as advanlageous:
|3) EJJeclive lecIniques oJ JevliIil veduclion nusl Ie avaiIaIIe.17
THE EUBOFEAN FEBTILITY FBOJECT
In 1963 CoaIe ovganized a najov slud oJ JevliIil decIine in sone 600 adninislvalive
divisions in Euvope. EIeven voIunes veve puIIisIed ovev 20 eavs vilI nasses oJ
suppovling dala lo covev in delaiI cIanges in vilaI vales lIal Iad occuvved Ielveen 1870
14
B. LeslIaegIe, TIe BecIine oJ BeIgian FevliIil 1800-1970 |Fvincelon 1977).
15
A. J. CoaIe, 'TIe denogvapIic lvansilion', Fvoceedings oJ lIe InlevnalionaI FopuIalion ConJevence, Liege,
|Liege 1973), p. 69.
16
CJ. F. OecIsIi and B. KivI, 'Modevnizalion and lIe denogvapIic lvansilion in Lalin Anevica and lIe
CaviIIean', Econonic BeveIopnenl and CuIluvaI CIange, 2 |1975), pp. 391-419, in vIicI lIe aulIovs covveclI
pvedicled lIe dale vIen Mexico vouId enlev lIe JevliIil lvansilion I consideving indices Jov eacI counlv
devived Jvon a conIinalion oJ vavious sociaI and econonic neasuves. Hovevev, Jov counlvies Iess deveIoped
lIan Mexico, lIe anlicipaled deIa did nol occuv, as lIe lvansilion svepl lIvougI lIe vIoIe cuIluvaI avea.
17
CoaIe, Ioc. cil. in Jn. 15, p. 65.
366 BUBLEY KIBK
and 1960. TIe suppovling nonogvapIs vvillen I dislinguisIed denogvapIevs veve
genevaII oJ IigI quaIil. TIis vas an enovnousI anIilious enlevpvise and vas
vegavded as lIe deJinilive slud oJ lIe suIjecl.
InJovnalion on age-speciJic JevliIil in nineleenlI-cenluv Euvope vas scavce, so lIal
in nosl aveas il vas inpossiIIe lo delevnine iniliaI JevliIil decIine diveclI Jvon
avaiIaIIe slalislicaI souvces, and an indivecl nelIod Jov Jinding I|g) |lolaI navilaI
JevliIil) vas used as evidence Jov iniliaI JevliIil veduclion.
FossiIIe veaInesses oJ lIis nelIod veve noled I Susan WalIins in lIe cIaplev
enlilIed 'ConcIusions' in lIe pvojecl's sunnav voIune.18 As is noled IeIov, nucI nove
sevious douIls aIoul lIis nelIod Iave Ieen vaised vecenlI.
A sevious Iinilalion oJ lIis appvoacI is lIal il disvegavds lIe Iavge vavialions in
'naluvaI' JevliIil, vIicI is appavenlI nol suIjecl lo conscious conlvoI. TIese vavialions
veve appavenlI vegavded as uninpovlanl, Iul oIsevved diJJevences in lolaI JevliIil
vIicI vange Jvon Jive lo eigIl can scavceI Ie disnissed.
FuvlIev, lIe concepl oJ 'naluvaI JevliIil' is needed lo sIov lIal peopIe in pve-
lvansilion popuIalions did nol Inov Iov lo veguIale navilaI JevliIil and did nol in Jacl
do so. TIougI lIe evidence is nixed, lIeve ave pevsuasive dala vIicI sIov lIal
conscious conlvoI oJ navilaI JevliIil vas, indeed, pvaclised |e.g. anong lIe uppev
cIasses).19
Sone veseavcIevs Iave vaised a pIiIosopIicaI concevn. TIe Jindings oJ lIe slud
cIeavI poinl lo a cuIluvaI, valIev lIan an econonic inlevpvelalion oJ JevliIil decIine. Bul
lIe Fvincelon pvojecl vas nol designed lo neasuve a cuIluvaI IpolIesis. Il does nol
expIain vIal il is lIal delevnines lIe lining oJ JevliIil decIine in a pavlicuIav cuIluvaI
ov Iinguislic gvoup. As Oeovge AIlev Ias said
'lIe dala Iase does nol incIude indicalovs oJ cuIluve, and pavlicipanls in lIe pvojecl Iave el
lo expIain vIal il is aIoul Iinguislic vegions lIal delevnines lIe lining oJ JevliIil decIine.20
Bid lIe conlexl oJ cuIluve pevIaps nol naIe nucI diJJevence? TIe lining na sinpI
veJIecl lIe degvee oJ access lo najov Iines oJ connunicalion, sucI as vaiIvas, voads, lIe
BanuIe elc. Nov does il expIain lIe necIanisn oJ lIe diJJusion pvocess vIicI venains
posluIaled Iul is nol denonslvaled in lIe lining.21 Is lIe IacI oJ speciJicil in lIis vegavd
as sevious as il is in vegavd lo socio-econonic vaviaIIes?
TIe lolaI eJJecl oJ lIese cvilicisns veaIens sone oJ lIe concIusions oJ lIe Euvopean
FevliIil Fvojecl. Il is inlevesling lIal in Iev concIuding connenls in lIe JinaI voIune oJ
lIe slud Susan Colls WalIins slales lIal
' aIlIougI lIe goaIs oJ lIe Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl veve pvinaviI lo descviIe and expIain
diJJevenliaIs in lIe JevliIil lvansilion, a concevn Jov diJJevenliaIs sIouId nol oIscuve lIe
siniIavilies.... In lIe conlexl oJ a concevn Jov Iessons lIal can Ie expovled Jvon nineleenlI-
cenluv Euvope lo conlenpovav counlvies eIsevIeve, il is lenpling lo enpIasize divevsil:
in lIe conlexl oJ lIe Iislov oJ JevliIil in Euvope lIe siniIavilies, in lIe end, seen nosl IiIeI
lo Ie inslvuclive.22
Il is lIese siniIavilies lIal ave picIed up I lvansilion lIeov. TIe Iave Ieen so
pevsuasive lIal lIe Uniled Nalions and lIe WovId BanI Iave Iased lIeiv popuIalion
Jovecasls on lIe assunplion oJ a slandavd lvansilion.
18
A. J. CoaIe and S. Colls WalIins, TIe BecIine oJ FevliIil in Euvope |Fvincelon, 1986), pp. 424-425.
19
CJ. E. A. WvigIe and B. S. ScIoJieId, TIe FopuIalion oJ EngIand 1541-1871. A Beconslvuclion, |London,
1981), and J. BIaIe, 'TIe JevliIil lvansilion Conlinuil ov disconlinuil vilI lIe pasl', Fvoceedings oJ lIe
InlevnalionaI FopuIalion ConJevence, FIovence, 1985, VoI. 1, pp. 393-405.
20
In CoIenan and ScIoJieId, |eds.) op. cil., in Jn. 5. p. 21.
21
S. Fveslon, 'TIe sociaI sciences and lIe popuIalion pvoIIen', in SocioIogicaI Fovun, 2 |1987), p. 667.
22
CoaIe and WalIins, op. cil. in Jn. 18, p. 449.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 367
WIen lvansilion lIeov is appIied lo lIe expevience in non-Euvopean counlvies, lIe
veguIavilies ave inpvessive. In evev inslance novlaIil Ias decIined Jivsl and Ias Ieen
JoIIoved I decIining JevliIil, and lIe vesuIl in eacI case Ias Ieen a considevaIIe
acceIevalion oJ popuIalion gvovlI. In lIe iniliaI JovnuIalion oJ lIe lvansilion, lIe
nonenlun cvealed |i.e. lIe pevcenlage naluvaI incvease) vas gvealI undeveslinaled. As
vas noled aIove, in 1945 Noleslein's pvojeclion oJ lIe vovId popuIalion Jov lIe eav
2000 vas nucI Iovev lIan lIe Jiguve expecled al pvesenl, vIicI is cIose lo six IiIIion.
TIe lvansilion Ias Iecone nucI nove vapid lIan il vas in Weslevn Euvope. OvovlI
is concenlvaled in a nucI sIovlev peviod lIan in Weslevn Euvope, vilI possiII no Iavgev
pevcenlage incvease. Bul, oJ couvse, lIe incvenenl Jov lIe vovId as a vIoIe slavls Jvon
a vev nucI Iavgev Iase Jiguve, so lIal acluaI gvovlI is vaslI gvealev.
FevIaps lIe Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl's nosl inpovlanl Jinding is lIal lIe lvansilion
Ias occuvved undev slviIingI divevse socio-econonic condilions. WIiIsl a IigI IeveI oJ
socio-econonic deveIopnenl vas oJlen acconpanied I JevliIil lvansilion, lvansilion is
nol a necessav pve-condilion Jov deveIopnenl. As Ias Ieen denonslvaled in Iess
deveIoped counlvies, lIe inlvoduclion oJ an eJJeclive JaniI pIanning pvogvanne na
conlviIule lo JevliIil decIine even al vev Iov IeveIs oJ nodevnizalion. TIeve is an
inpovlanl dinension oJ innovalion/diJJusion in lIe lvansilion lIal svepl ovev Euvope
vilIin a veIaliveI sIovl line. TIis Ias Ieen a videI accepled nodiJicalion oJ lvansilion
lIeov. A good sunnav oJ vIal Ias Ieen Ieavned Jvon lIis IislovicaI expevience is
given I KnodeI and van de WaIIe as JoIIovs
|1) FevliIil decIines looI pIace undev a vide vaviel oJ sociaI, econonic, and deno-
gvapIic condilions:
|2) FaniI Iinilalion vas nol pvaclised |and vas pvoIaII unInovn) anong
Ivoad seclions oJ lIe popuIalion IeJove lIe decIine in JevliIil Iegan, even
lIougI a suIslanliaI pvopovlion oJ IivlIs na Iave Ieen unvanled:
|3) Incveases in lIe pvaclice oJ JaniI pIanning and lIe decIine oJ navilaI JevliIil
veve essenliaII ivvevevsiIIe pvocesses, once undev va:
|4) CuIluvaI sellings inJIuence lIe onsel and spvead oJ JevliIil decIine inde-
pendenlI oJ socio-econonic condilions.23
Il Ias Ieen sIovn lIal JevliIil decIine in lvopicaI Lalin Anevica, once slavled, quicII
spvead lo olIev counlvies independenlI oJ lIeiv IeveI oJ socio-econonic deveIopnenl.
TIis Ias aIso Ieen noled in counlvies oJ CIinese cuIluve, in CIina ilseIJ, and in lIe 'IillIe
dvagons' oJ Hong Kong, SoulI Kovea, Singapove, and Taivan.
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY MOBTALITY
In lIe denogvapIic Iilevaluve lvansilion lIeov Ias oJlen cone lo nean lIe JevliIil
lvansilion aIone, valIev lIan joined lo lIe olIev inpovlanl lvansilion, lIal oJ novlaIil.
TIe veason is sinpIe. Molives Jov lIe veduclion oJ novlaIil ave nucI easiev lo expIain,
and causes ave nove easiI idenliJied.
TIvee slages oJ IislovicaI novlaIil decIine in lIe nodevn vovId na Ie dislinguisIed
|1) TIougI sone veduclion oJ novlaIil na veII Iave occuvved eavIiev in Weslevn
Euvope, il is nosl cIeavI idenliJied in lIe Iallev pavl oJ lIe eigIleenlI and lIe Jivsl IaIJ
oJ lIe nineleenlI cenluvies. Buving lIe eavI slages, vising incones pvesunaII
conlviIuled lo veduclions in novlaIil |and convevseI in nuluaI inlevaclion). Bul lIe
23
J. KnodeI and E. van de WaIIe, 'Lessons Jvon lIe pasl. FoIic inpIicalions oJ IislovicaI JevliIil sludies'.
FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 2 |2) |1979), p. 219.
368 BUBLEY KIBK
deveIopnenl oJ lIe nodevn slale vas a decisive inJIuence. In genevaI, lIe eslaIIisInenl
oJ puIIic ovdev diveclI veduced dealIs Jvon IocaI vavs, lviIaI and cIan Jeuds, and
vandon vioIence. FvoIaII even nove inpovlanl vas lIe indivecl eJJecl oJ lIe
eslaIIisInenl oJ an inJvaslvucluve in lvanspovl and connevce in lIe nodevn slale lIal
IvougIl aIoul a veduclion in Janines, and pevIaps aIso in epidenics. SlaIiIil pvoIaII
aIso conlviIuled lo inpvovenenls in agvicuIluve.
TIeve Ias Ieen dispule aIoul lIe causes oJ novlaIil decIine duving lIis eavI peviod.
Sone Iave avgued lIal lIe eavI decIine vas pvinaviI due lo inpvovenenls in
agvicuIluve, veJIecled in inpvoved nulvilion and vesislance lo inJeclious diseases
independenlI oJ nedicaI inlevvenlion, inpvoved Igiene elc. TIis viev Ias Ieen
eJJecliveI cIaIIenged I olIevs vIo ascviIe novlaIil veduclions lo inpvovenenls in
Igiene, as neasuved I lIe incveasing consunplion oJ soap and oJ vasIaIIe collon
cIolIing.24
|2) Buving lIe Iasl lIivd oJ lIe nineleenlI cenluv up lo WovId Wav I, lIeve vas a
vevoIulion in nedicine induced I lIe discovevies oJ Fasleuv, KocI, and olIevs. TIe
vesuIling veduclions in cIiId novlaIil, and sonevIal Ialev in inJanl novlaIil, veve
vesponsiIIe Jov nucI oJ lIe decIine in novlaIil, pavlicuIavI in novlaIil Jvon diseases
sucI as diavvIoea and luIevcuIosis.25 Buving lIe inlev-vav peviod soIid gains veve
acIieved in nedicine, IeaIlI educalion elc., slinuIaled I pvogvess nade duving and
aJlev WovId Wav I.
|3) Buving WovId Wav II and lIe JoIIoving peviod lIeve Ias Ieen an expIosion in lIe
use oJ anliIiolics, inilialed I FIening's discovev oJ peniciIIin and ils snlIesis in 1943.
TIe cunuIalive eJJecl oJ lIese deveIopnenls Ias Ieen a dvanalic veduclion in
epidenic and conlagious diseases. MucI nove diJJicuIl lo veduce Ias Ieen novlaIil
Jvon ovganic diseases, sucI as diseases oJ lIe civcuIalov sslen, and cancevs, aIlIougI
inpovlanl gains Iave Ieen acIieved in veducing novlaIil Jvon civcuIalov diseases, and
pavlicuIavI in incveasing lIe Iongevil oJ oIdev aduIls. Hovevev, lIe adoplion oJ
nodevn IiJeslIes Ias nol Ieen vesponsiIIe Jov incveased novlaIil Jvon degenevalive
diseases. TIe veve sinpI Iess evidenl eavIiev, Iecause oJ lIe IigI incidence oJ
conlagious diseases. Cuvvenl lvends in novlaIil go nucI JuvlIev IacI lIan is usuaII
supposed.26
A Jealuve oJ IolI lIe novlaIil and lIe JevliIil lvansilions Ias Ieen lIeiv incveasingI
Jaslev lenpo. A novlaIil lvansilion lIal looI 75-100 eavs in NovlIevn Euvope lo
conpIele vas acIieved vilIin 20-25 eavs in Easlevn Euvope, and vilIin even sIovlev
peviods in lIe Iess deveIoped counlvies vIicI cane on lIe scene nucI Ialev. TIe
exislence oJ an ovevaII incone eJJecl on novlaIil Ias Ieen denonslvaled, especiaII al
Iovev incone IeveIs, Iul lIese lend lo dininisI al IigIev avevage IeveIs oJ incone.27
Il is pevIaps suvpvising lIal vIiIe novlaIil decIine is usuaII ciled as lIe vaison d'e'lve
Jov JevliIil decIine, il is nol oJlen accovded a pvinav pIace as a cause oJ JevliIil decIine.
TIis is undevslandaIIe, since eJJovls lo eslaIIisI a divecl cIose conneclion Iave Iad
nixed vesuIls.28 WIiIsl deJinilive pvooJ oJ lIis conneclion na nol Ie possiIIe, lIeve exisl
cogenl veasons Jov supposing lIal il exisls. CevlainI, veduced novlaIil and novIidil
24
T. McKeovn, B. C. Bovev and O. Becovd, 'An inlevpvelalion oJ lIe nodevn vise oJ popuIalion in
Euvope', FopuIalion Sludies, 26 |3), |1972), pp. 45-82: F. E. BazzeII, 'An inlevpvelalion oJ lIe vise oJ
popuIalion in Euvope. A cvilique', FopuIalion Sludies, 28 |1) |1974), pp. 5-17.
25
B. ScIoJieId, B. BeIev and A. Bideau |eds.), TIe BecIine oJ MovlaIil in Euvope, |OxJovd, 1991).
26
T. B. Oage, 'TIe decIine in novlaIil in EngIand and WaIes, 1861-1964. Beconposilion I cause oJ dealI
and conponenls oJ novlaIil', FopuIalion Sludies, 49 |1) |MavcI 1993), pp. 47-66.
27 S. Fveslon, 'TIe cIanging veIalion Ielveen novlaIil and IeveI oJ econonic deveIopnenl', FopuIalion
Sludies, 29 |2) |JuI 1975), pp. 231-246.
28
S. Fveslon, TIe EJJecls oJ InJanl and CIiId Cave on FevliIil. |Nev YovI, 1978).
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 369
and a IeaIlIiev popuIalion ave najov conlviIulovs lo a vise in Iiving slandavds, vIicI ave
oJlen vegavded as a najov Jaclov in JevliIil decIine. FevIaps pscIoIogicaI eJJecls ave as
signiJicanl, ov even nove so. Beduclions in novlaIil and novIidil slvenglIen lIe IeIieJ
lIal Iunans can conlvoI and nodiJ lIeiv envivonnenl and deslinies. MenIevs oJ
nodevn socielies laIe a Iess JalaIislic and passive viev oJ IiJe lIan do nenIevs oJ pve-
induslviaI popuIalions.
Sone econonisls, e.g. Kuznels, see veduced novlaIil as an aIsoIule pvevequisile oJ
nodevnizalion.29 Il is, oJ couvse, diJJicuIl lo pul anlIing olIev lIan a nosl genevaI vaIue
on lIe conlviIulions oJ veduclions in novlaIil and novIidil lo econonic deveIopnenl.
Bul, vIal vouId Ie lIe posilion iJ inpvoved pIsicaI IeaIlI and Iovev novlaIil veve
lIe pvinav causes oJ cIanging econonic alliludes? Vievs oJ IiJe Iave cIanged and
peopIe IeIieve lIal il is possiIIe lo inJIuence one's Jale: an allilude lIal Joslevs
individuaIisn. Bul il vouId Ie Jaluous lo considev a singIe cause, and Jocus on il as lIe
onI cause. Socio-econonic, socioIogicaI, cuIluvaI, and idealionaI Jaclovs ave nucI loo
cIoseI inlevlvined lo Ie isoIaled.
NevevlIeIess, novlaIil veduclion sIouId Ie given gvealev allenlion as one cause oJ
JevliIil decIine, nolaII I pvonoling econonic pvoduclivil, especiaII in a nove
pvoduclive IaIouv Jovce. TIe najov Jocus oJ lIe WovId BanI's WovId BeveIopnenl
Bepovl Jov 1993 is 'Invesling in HeaIlI', and incIudes an exIauslive slud oJ lIe Iuvden
oJ disease. TIe concepl oJ lIe 'disaIiIil IiJe eav' |BALY) Ias Ieen used as a neasuve
lIal conIines IeaIlI IiJe-eavs Iosl Iecause oJ pvenaluve novlaIil vilI lIose Iosl
Iecause oJ disaIiIil. TIe Jiguves vange Jvon 17 pev 1,000 popuIalion in eslaIIisIed
navIel econonies lo 344 in India, and 574 in suI-SaIavan AJvica.
Again il is inpossiIIe lo pul a nonelav vaIue on lIese diJJevences, Iul lIe nusl Iave
Iad a najov inpacl on econonic pvoduclivil. In olIev vovds, veduclions in novIidil
and veIaled novlaIil ave veJIecled in inpvoved pvoduclivil and econonic deveIopnenl.
As ve slaled eavIiev, lIe indivecl pscIoIogicaI eJJecls oJ decIining novlaIil ave pvoIaII
even gvealev lIan lIe divecl ones.
Il is lvue, Iovevev, lIal novlaIil veduclions in poov counlvies and lIe consequenl
vapid gvovlI oJ popuIalion na inpede capilaI Jovnalion and olIev aspecls oJ
deveIopnenl. TIe vesuIls viII diJJev in eacI individuaI case, Iul ave al Ieasl as IiIeI lo
Ie posilive as negalive. In pvaclice, econonic deveIopnenl Ias usuaII Iepl pace vilI,
ov exceeded popuIalion gvovlI and Ias veduced Jeavs aIoul lIe advevse eJJecls oJ
popuIalion gvovlI in lIe nodevn vovId.
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY ECONOMIC THEOBY
TIeve Ias Ieen deIale on vIelIev econonic, ov sociaI and idealionaI Jaclovs ave nove
inpovlanl in inilialing JevliIil decIine. TIe doninance oJ econonic Jaclovs vas veJIecled
in lIe eavI JovnuIalions oJ lvansilion lIeov. A pevvasive lIene in lIese discussions vas
lIal nodevnizalion cIanges lIe econonics oJ cIiIdIeaving and naIes il seen lo Ie
econonicaII disadvanlageous. TIis Ias Ied lo lIe JovnuIalion oJ econonic lIeovies oJ
JevliIil decIine.
In econonic lIeov, pve-nodevn IigI JevliIil vas accepled as valionaI IeIaviouv, jusl
as lIe JevliIil decIine is vieved as Ieing Iased on valionaI cIoices. TIis Ias vepIaced lIe
cIassic lIeov vIicI conlvasls nodevn valionaIil vilI pve-nodevn ivvalionaIil. TIe
Jivsl appIicalion oJ nicvo-econonic lIinIing lo lvansilion lIeov vas lIe 'nev Ione
29
Sinon Kuznels 'FopuIalion lvends and nodevn econonic gvovlI. Noles lovavds a IislovicaI
pevspeclive', in FopuIalion BeIale, Binensions and Fevspeclives, WovId FopuIalion ConJevence, BucIavesl
|1975), voI. i, pp. 425-432.
370 BUBLEY KIBK
econonics'. TIe cenlvaI lIene oJ lIis 'CIicago ScIooI' appvoacI vas lIal veduced
denand Jov cIiIdven as delevnined I incone, pvices, and lasles vas lIe Iasic dviving
Jovce in lIe JevliIil lvansilion. Fvoninenl exponenls oJ lIe lIeov veve Oav BecIev and
T. W. ScIuIlz, eacI oJ vIon puIIisIed sevevaI IooIs and avlicIes on lIe suIjecl.30
In lIe lIeov's eavI Jovn, consunev cIoice vas lvealed as Ieing valIev necIanislic,
and did nol dislinguisI Ielveen acquisilion oJ a IaI and puvcIase oJ a nolov cav. TIis
gave vise lo BIaIe's acevIic connenl in an avlicIe enlilIed 'Ave IaIies consunev
duvaIIes? '.3
In a IigII sopIislicaled avlicIe, FoIIaI and WalIins32 caIIed allenlion lo lIe JaiIuve
oJ lIe econonisl's 'valionaI aclov' lo deaI vilI vaving pveJevences and olIev aspecls oJ
cuIluve. 'CuIluve na deJine lIe lpes oJ IeIaviouv lIal ave suIjecl lo individuaI cIoice
in a pavlicuIav sociel and lIus deIinil lIe aveas vilIin vIicI lIe valionaI aclov is
appvopviale'. Be lIal as il na, econonic and veIaled socio-econonic lIeovies Iave
oJlen lended lo pvevaiI Iecause lIe veve nove successJuI lIan cuIluvaI-idealionaI
lIeovies in giving concepluaI and nalIenalicaI pvecision lo lIeiv nodeIs.
TIis valIev Jvagnenlav exposilion does nol pevIaps do juslice lo lIe sopIislicaled
naluve oJ econonic lIeovies. Lalev JovnuIalions veve nove sopIislicaled, Iul accovding
lo HivscInan 'lIe appvoacI venains loo navvov lo Ie a signiJicanl cIaIIenge lo
denogvapIic lvansilion lIeov'.33 As BoIinson sonevIal unIindI pul il 'lIe
pvoposilion [lIe nicvo-econonic lIeov oJ JevliIil] Ias nol Ieen pvoven, onI assevled
oJlen enougI lo gain a cevlain cvediIiIil and Jovce lIvougI vepelilion'.34
In a IandnavI avlicIe, CIeIand and WiIson cIaIIenged lIe econonic appvoacI. Fov
lIen, lIe evidence suggesls lIal in lvadilionaI socielies conscious JevliIil conlvoI vilIin
navviage vas IavgeI aIsenl |i.e. il vas nol a viaIIe cIoice). TIis aIsence does nol
necessaviI inpI a denand Jov Iavge JaniIies. TIe lining oJ lIe lvansilion is slvongI
inJIuenced I Iinguislic and cuIluvaI Ioundavies, Iess slvongI I nodevnizalion Jaclovs,
anong vIicI indicalovs oJ sociaI deveIopnenl, sucI as vonen's educalion and slalus
ave nove inpovlanl lIan econonic ones. TIe IinI vilI cuIluvaI Jaclovs suggesls lIal lIe
lvansilion vas nove cIoseI connecled vilI lIe diJJusion oJ nev ideas lIan vilI cIanges
in nicvo-econonic Jovces.3
One econonisl, BicIavd EaslevIin, Ias nade a sopIislicaled eJJovl lo conIine
econonic and socioIogicaI lIeovies oJ JevliIil decIine. He Ivoadens lIe usuaII deJined
Jaclovs oJ denand, suppI, and cosls oJ JevliIil veguIalion. Undev 'denand' Ie incIudes
lIe slandavd socio-econonic delevninanls oJ lIe lvansilion used in lIe nodevnizalion
IpolIesis: 'suppI Jaclovs' ave lIe cuIluvaI eIenenls lIal conslvain naluvaI JevliIil.
'Cosls' ave lIe nonelav, line, and pscIic conslvainls in lIe use oJ IivlI conlvoI.36 AII
delevninanls oJ JevliIil opevale lIvougI one ov olIev oJ lIese vaviaIIes. Benand is
neasuved I slaled desived JaniI size, suppI I lIe nunIev oJ cIiIdven a coupIe vouId
Iave 'naluvaII' in lIe aIsence oJ conscious JevliIil conlvoI. 'Cosls
'
Iunp logelIev lIose
30
CJ. O. S. BecIev, A Tvealise on lIe FaniI, |CanIvidge, Mass., Havvavd Univevsil Fvess, 1981), and
T. W. ScIuIlz |ed.), Econonics oJ lIe FaniI Mavviage, CIiIdven and Hunan CapilaI |CIicago, CIicago,
Univevsil Fvess, 1974).
31
JudilI BIaIe, 'Ave IaIies consunev duvaIIes?' FopuIalion Sludies, 22 |1) |1968), pp. 5-25.
32
B. A. FoIIaI and S. Colls WalIins, 'CuIluve and econonic appvoacIes lo JevliIil. A pvopev navviage ov
nesaIIiance?' FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 19 |3) |1993), p. 490.
3 C. HivscInann, 'WI JevliIil cIanges', AnnuaI Beviev oJ SocioIog |1994), p. 215.
3 W. BoIinson, 'Kena enlevs lIe JevliIil lvansilion', FopuIalion Sludies, 46 |3) |1992), pp. 445-458.
3 J. CIeIand and C. WiIson, 'Benand lIeovies oJ lIe JevliIil lvansilion. An iconocIaslic viev', FopuIalion
Sludies, 41 |1) |1987), pp. 5-30.
36 B. A. EaslevIin and E. Cvinnins, TIe FevliIil BevoIulion |CIicago, 1985). See aIso B. A. EaslevIin, 'TIe
econonics and socioIog oJ JevliIil', in C. TiII |ed.), HislovicaI Sludies oJ CIanging FevliIil |Fvincelon,
1978).
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 371
incuvved in levns oJ none, line, and inconvenience, vilI pscIic cosls, sucI as disIiIe
Jov lIe genevaI nolion oJ JaniI pIanning ov Jov speciJic lecIniques, sucI as aIovlion, nol
lo nenlion veIigious IeIieJs.
EaslevIin's JvanevovI envisages nodevnizalion as inJIuencing JevliIil lIvougI
inlevvening vaviaIIes oJ suppI, denand, and cosl oJ conlvoIIing IivlIs. Hence, il does
nol assune eilIev pviovil ov doninance anong diJJevenl econonic, socio-econonic, and
cuIluvaI expIanalions. Il is lIis cIavaclevislic lIal induced lIe NalionaI BeseavcI
CounciI's FaneI on FevliIil Belevninanls lo adopl il as lIe Iasic JvanevovI Jov ils
nassive slud.37
TIe lvansilion nodeI Ias lIus veceived a good deaI oJ allenlion. Bul ils pvaclicaI
appIicalion Jaces diJJicuIlies. TIe dependenl vaviaIIe is lIe nunIev oJ cIiIdven a vonan
Ias Iovne I lIe end oJ Iev vepvoduclive IiJe, and, lIeveJove, laIes a coIovl, valIev lIan
a peviod pevspeclive. TIis is useJuI Jov sone puvposes, Iul nol Jov lIe anaIsis oJ cuvvenl
evenls. FuvlIevnove, il assunes a Jixed IiJe ccIe, |i.e. pavenls decide al lIe line oJ lIeiv
navviage vIal nunIev oJ cIiIdven lIe vanl, and adIeve lo lIis decision lIvougIoul
lIeiv Jecund eavs), and il naIes no aIIovance Jov cIanges vilI line and expevience.
TIis viev cevlainI conJIicls vilI acluaI expevience.
LiIe sone oJ Iis pvedecessovs, EaslevIin does nol deaI adequaleI vilI lIe vide
vavialions in 'naluvaI' JevliIil in pve-nodevn socielies. He, IiIe lIe eavI vvilevs on
lvansilion, JaiIs lo speciJ lIe socio-econonic Jaclovs lIal expIain denand.38
TIougI lIese econonic vaviaIIes ave nol inconpaliIIe vilI lvadilionaI denogvapIic
lvansilion lIeov, lIe ave loo navvov Jov a salisJaclov veslalenenl. TIeiv signiJicanl
conlviIulion is lo sIov Iov nodevnizalion na Iegin I vaising JevliIil IeJove lIe JaII
induced I JuvlIev nodevnizalion, a pIenonenon lIal Ias Ieen oIsevved in a nunIev
oJ counlvies. Bul in conlvasl lo lIe Jindings oJ lIe Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl, cuIluvaI
vaviaIIes ave onI given noninaI allenlion.
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY CALBWELL S BESTATEMENT
An inlevesling veslalenenl oJ lvansilion lIeov Ias Ieen oJJeved I CaIdveII in an
allenpl lo inlegvale econonic, cuIluvaI, and inslilulionaI lIeovies oJ JevliIil decIine.39
In conlvasl lo lIe oviginaI lIeov Ie IoIds lIal pve-lvansilion JevliIil IeIaviouv vas
valionaI. Bul Ie cvilicizes econonic lIeovies oJ JevliIil and assevls lIal JevliIil
IeIaviouv is valionaI onI vilIin lIe JvanevovI eslaIIisIed I sociaI ends. AII socielies
ave econonicaII valionaI, Iul lIe ends sevved diJJev Jvon sociel lo sociel. His
oIsevvalions ave gvealI envicIed I exanpIes Jvon Iis ovn exlensive anlIvopoIogicaI
JieId veseavcI.
CaIdveII, unIiIe eavIiev lvansilion lIeovisls, naIes an inpovlanl dislinclion Ielveen
'nodevnizalion' and 'Weslevnizalion'. TIe Jivsl is slvucluvaI as in econonic ovgan-
izalion: lIe second a coping
- lvo vev diJJevenl pvocesses. As Ie covveclI poinls oul
lIeve does nol appeav lo Ie a cIose veIalionsIip Ielveen econonic nodevnizalion and
lIe Ieginning oJ JevliIil decIine in lIe nodevn vovId.
TIe pvinav Jovce oJ cIange appeavs lo Ie Weslevnizalion, vIicI incIudes ideas oJ
pvogvess, secuIavizalion, nass educalion, and naslev ovev lIe envivonnenl. TIis
pvocess can pvecede econonic deveIopnenl, as il Ias incveasingI done in Iess deveIoped
aveas. CaIdveII's avgunenl is suppovled I lIe JevliIil decIines vIicI Iave occuvved al
3 B. A. BuIalao and B. B. Lee, Belevninanls oJ FevliIil in BeveIoping Counlvies. |Nev YovI, 1983).
38
HivscInann, Ioc. cil. in Jn. 32, p. 215.
3 See especiaII J. C. CaIdveII 'Tovavds a veslalenenl oJ denogvapIic lIeov', FopuIalion and
BeveIopnenl Beviev, 2 |1976), pp. 321-366.
372 BUBLEY KIBK
vev Iov IeveIs oJ nodevnizalion, as in BangIadesI and - nove vecenlI - in soulIevn
AJvica. In Iis viev an inpovlanl expovl oJ Weslevnizalion is lIe pvedoninance oJ lIe
nucIeav JaniI vilI ils concenlvalion on expendiluve Jov one's cIiIdven, e.g. on
educalion. TIis viev Ias Ieen cIaIIenged I Cain, vIo assevls lIal lIe nucIeav JaniI
is no nove pvone lo decIining JevliIil lIan lIe exlended JaniI, since lIe Iallev pvovides
an aIlevnalive lo cIiIdven as insuvance Jov secuvil in oId age.40
CaIdveII's nane is idenliJied vilI Iis veaIlI JIov lIeov oJ JevliIil decIine. In lIis
viev, lIe JundanenlaI issue in denogvapIic lvansilion is lIe diveclion and nagnilude oJ
inlevgenevalionaI veaIlI JIovs. Al Jivsl, in pve-nodevn socielies, lIe JIov is Jvon cIiIdven
lo pavenls ov, nove IvoadI, Jvon lIe oungev lo lIe oIdev genevalion. WeaIlI is deJined
Ieve as incIuding none, goods, and vesouvces.
WIen lIeve is a lvansilion Jvon lIe exlended lo lIe nucIeav JaniI, lIe penduIun
svings and lIe diveclion oJ lIe JIov is nov Jvon pavenls lo cIiIdven. In lIis silualion,
Ieing cIiIdIess is lIe nosl valionaI econonic IeIaviouv! Bul, oJ couvse, coupIes conlinue
lo pvocveale Jov sociaI and pscIoIogicaI veasons, lIougI lIe Iave nan Jevev cIiIdven
lIan JovnevI.
As CaIdveII adnils, Iis veslalenenl does nol cIaviJ lIe naluve oJ lIe speciJic appeaI
oJ Weslevnized vaIues and JaniI sslens. WI does Weslevnizalion pvoceed nove
vapidI and veacI evev Iovev IeveIs oJ socio-econonic deveIopnenl, as in BangIadesI
and suI-SaIavan AJvica? WIiIsl CaIdveII's lIeov is vev appeaIing il is, as Ie IinseIJ
adnils, nol veadiI leslaIIe. One sevious allenpl lo lesl il did nol vesuIl in conJivnalion
oJ lIe lIeov.4'
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY CULTUBAL ANB IBEATIONAL THEOBY
A nove speciJicaII cuIluvaI lIeov lIan CaIdveII's Ias Ieen pul Jovvavd I LeslIaegIe
vIo avgues lIal diJJevences in JevliIil IeIaviouv ave pvinaviI veIaled lo cuIluvaI
diJJevences. TIis conlvasls vilI lIe slvucluvaI inJIuences oJ socio-econonic deveIopnenl
vIicI Iave Ieen descviIed as 'pvinav' in cIassicaI lvansilion lIeov. LeslIaegIe assevls
lIal diJJevences in JevliIil IeveIs and lIeiv speed oJ cIange ave veIaled lo diJJevences in
veIigious IeIieJs and pvaclices and in lIe degvee oJ secuIavisn, naleviaIisn, and
individualion.
LeslIaegIe's anaIsis and vesuIls ave a najov nodiJicalion oJ cIassicaI lvansilion
lIeov. Basing IinseIJ on econonic lIeovies oJ econonicaII valionaI JevliIil IeIaviouv,
Iiniled I ils assunplions oJ exogenous and conslanl 'lasles', Ie descviIes lIe
inpIicalion oJ cIanging and exogenous lasles. 'In olIev vovds, a cosl-IeneJil pavadign
is necessav, Iul nol suJJicienl'. LeslIaegIe adds a lIeov oJ 'IigIev ovdev needs' lo
cIassicaI econonic uliIil lIeov. Econonic pvospevil cveales a nev IievavcI oJ needs
in a lvee-IiIe slvucluve a lvunI oJ Iasic pIsioIogicaI needs aIove vIicI gvov a divevsil
oJ IvancIes ov 'IigIev' needs, incIuding a pIelIova oJ Iuxuv goods and, especiaII,
pscIoIogicaI non-naleviaI needs.42
HislovicaII in Weslevn Euvope lIis Ias neanl gvealev Jveedon oJ cIoice and
veIaxalion oJ veIigious conlvoI, ov secuIavizalion. LeslIaegIe JuII docunenls lIe decIine
in lvadilionaI veIigious IeIieJs and cIuvcI allendance and lIe vising enpIasis on
40
M. Cain, 'Fevspeclives on JaniI and JevliIil in deveIoping counlvies', FopuIalion Sludies, 36 |2) |1982),
pp. 159-175.
41
T. E. Bov, Jv., L. AvcIev, S. KIasiani and J. KeIovoIe,
'WeaIlI JIovs and JevliIil decIine in vuvaI
Kena, 1991-92', FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 20 |1994), pp. 343-364.
42
B. LeslIaegIe, 'A cenluv oJ denogvapIic and cuIluvaI cIange in Weslevn Euvope. An expIovalion oJ
undevIing dinensions', FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 9 |3) |1983), p. 411.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 373
individuaI discvelion and 'IigIev' needs, sucI as individuaI vanls in conlvasl lo
connunil vanls: in olIev vovds, cIanges divecled lovavds individuaIisn and concepls
oJ seIJ-JuIJiInenl. Hov does lIis veIale lo JevliIil decIine?
' A JevliIil decIine is in essence pavl oJ a Ivoadev enancipalion pvocess. Move speciJicaII, lIe
denogvapIic veguIalov necIanisns, upIeId I lIe acconpaning connunaI ov JaniI
aulIovil and excIange pallevns give va lo lIe pvincipIe oJ individuaI Jveedon oJ cIoice,
lIeveI aIIoving an exlension oJ lIe donain oJ econonic valionaIil lo lIe pIenonenon oJ
vepvoduclion.43
'TIe undevIing dinension oJ lIis sIiJl is lIe incveasing inpovlance oJ lIe cenlvaI posilion
given lo lIe allainnenl oJ individuaI goaIs. As a vesuIl, lIe exlenl lo vIicI a lvend in lIis
diveclion oJ gvealev individuaI ovienlalion and pevsonaI discvelion is cuvIed ov pevnilled
seens lo Ie oJ pavanounl signiJicance Jov lIe pallevn oJ cIange vilI vespecl lo aII aspecls oJ
JaniI IiJe and pvocvealion '.
WIiIe eninenlI IogicaI, lIe appIicalion oJ lIese ideas lo JevliIil decIine is sonevIal
lenuous, Iecause lIe pvecise IinI is nol aIvas cIeavI deJined. Il is lvue lIal JevliIil
lvansilion duving lIe Iale nineleenlI and eavI lvenlielI cenluvies pvoceeded in pavaIIeI
vilI cuIluvaI-idealionaI cIanges in lIe diveclion oJ individuaIisn and seIJ-JuIJiInenl, and
accovding lo LeslIaegIe, in lIe quaIil oJ conjugaI veIalionsIips and oJ cIiIdven vilIin
lIe nucIeav JaniI. TIis appeavs lo Ie a veaI IinI in lIe cIain oJ veasoning and
enpivicaI denonslvalion.
Il is, oJ couvse, lvue lIal vecenl cIanges in lIe diveclion oJ evev gvealev pveoccupalion
vilI lIe veIJave and seIJ JuIJiInenl oJ individuaIs Iave Ieen acconpanied I incveases
in pve-navilaI sexuaIil and coIaIilalion, nove cIiIdven Iovn oul oJ vedIocI, nove
divovce elc., as veII as I JuvlIev decIines in JevliIil. TIus, as a socioIogicaI
genevaIizalion il is vev allvaclive and couId Ie appIied lo JaniI slvucluve and JevliIil
decIine, al Ieasl in lIeov.
LeslIaegIe is a Ieading vepvesenlalive oJ lIe Euvopean enpIasis on cuIluvaI vaIues,
as opposed lo enpIasis on naleviaI aspecls vIicI is Javouved I Anevican aulIovs.
Hovevev, as noled IeIov, lIe lvo ave nol as opposed as lIe na seen.
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY HISTOBIANS' VIEWS
'BenogvapI is loo inpovlanl lo Ie IeJl lo denogvapIevs'. Econonisls veacIed lIis
concIusion nan eavs ago and Iave laIen an aclive inlevesl in lIis JieId. Nov, sone
Iislovians Iave veacIed lIe sane concIusion.
OJ couvse, Iislovians Iave nol Ieen enliveI aIsenl anong eavI vvilevs on lIe
lvansilion. EspeciaII nolevovlI ave lIe conlviIulions I E. A. WvigIe and Iis
coIIeagues.45 AcluaII, denogvapIevs Iave deaIl exIausliveI vilI IislovicaI lopics, Iul
as 'IislovicaI denogvapIevs' valIev lIan denogvapIic Iislovians. TIe Iallev Iave Ieen
valIev spavse.
A veJIeclion oJ IislovicaI inlevesls is pvovided in a nolaIIe IooI, ediled I CIavIes
TiII,46 vIo is IinseIJ an Iislovian, and vIicI incIudes conlviIulions Jvon Jive
Iislovians and lIvee denogvapIevs. As TiII poinls oul, lIe queslion is Iov and vI
IasicaII agvavian popuIalions |and nove especiaII peasanls) luvned Jivsl inlo an uvIan
induslviaI pvoIelavial, and Ialev inlo a Iouvgeois sociel. TIe Jivsl cIange Ieads lo
conlinued IigI, iJ nol vising, JevliIil: lIe second lo JevliIil decIine.
43IIid. p. 411.
4 IIid., pp. 429, 432.
45 CJ. Iis IooIs enlilIed InduslviaI OvovlI and FopuIalion CIange |1961): FopuIalion and Hislov |1969),
and, as edilov, Inlvoduclion lo EngIisI HislovicaI BenogvapI |1966).
46
C. TiII |ed.), HislovicaI Sludies oJ CIanging FevliIil |Fvincelon, 1978).
374 BUBLEY KIBK
In a nove vecenl IooI, ediled I OiIIis and olIevs, lIeve is a slvong pIea Jov lIe
incIusion oJ IislovicaI cuIluvaI Jealuves in sludies oJ lIe JevliIil lvansilion. TIe nassive
Fvincelon pvojecl, did nol incIude Iislovians anong ils conlviIulovs. In an appvaisaI oJ
lIe slud, AIlev sas
'TIe inpovlance oJ Iinguislic vegions cIeavI poinls lo acuIluvaI inlevpvelalion oJ JevliIil
decIine in conlvasl lo lIe econonic Jaclovs enpIasized I lIe lIeov oJ lIe denogvapIic
lvansilion. UnJovlunaleI, lIe Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl vas nol designed veII enougI lo
exanine a cuIluvaI IpolIesis. TIe dala Iase does nol incIude indicalovs oJ cuIluve, and
pavlicipanls in lIe pvojecl Iave el lo expIain vIal il is aIoul Iinguislic vegions lIal
delevnines lIe lining oJ JevliIil decIines.'47
TIus Jav no allenpl Ias Ieen nade lo cIavaclevize lIe cuIluvaI diJJevences Ielveen
Iinguislic vegions. In AIlev's viev, LeslIaegIe cones cIosesl lo lIis in Iis neasuve oJ
secuIavizalion, sucI as Iis anaIsis oJ lIe veIalion Ielveen voling Jov sociaIisl candidales
in eIeclions and JevliIil cIange. He vegavds CaIdveII's veslalenenl as JundanenlaII a
cuIluvaI valIev lIan an econonic nodeI.48 Hislovians ave cvilicaI oJ lIe slandavd Jocus
on econonic and sociaI slvucluve, and oJ an econonic delevninisn vIicI IoIds lIal lIe
Ivoad Ivoon oJ induslviaIizalion sveeps ava IigI JevliIil vales.
SevevaI conlviIulovs lo lIe IooI Jocus on lIe cuIluve oJ vepvoduclion as a Jaclov in
lIe JevliIil decIine ov IacI oJ il. Accovding lo SecconIe
'Oveal advances Iave Ieen nade in lIe slud oJ gendev veIalions in lIe 1970s and 1980s, Iul
vev Jev oJ lIen ave veJIecled in denogvapIic lIeovies oJ JevliIil decIine .... SexuaI desive and
conjugaI povev ave aIsenl Jvon lIe nainslvean pavadigns oJ JevliIil veguIalion.49
'To engendev JaniI Iinilalion [lIvougI conlvaceplion] IolI spouses nusl Iave a slvong
desive lo cease cIiIdIeaving and lIe capacil lo laIe eJJeclive aclion lovavd lIal end. TIe
diIenna Jov a gveal nan vovIing-cIass JaniIies in lIe eavI lvenlielI cenluv vas lIal lIe
lvo necessav condilions veve disjoinled. TIe vonen veve slvongI nolivaled Iul IacIed lIe
povev lo avoid coilus and lIe neans lo avevl conceplion, vIiIe nen Iad il in lIeiv povev lo
aIslain, vilIdvav, ov use condons, Iul veve nol suJJicienlI nolivaled lo veslvain lIeiv
sexuaIil vilI consislenc.... IJ navvied vonen veve aIvead Ieen lo sIovlen lIeiv
cIiIdIeaving caveevs, vIal IvougIl IusIands vound lo lIeiv va oJ lIinIing?... lIe najov
inpelus, in n viev vas lIe undevIing sIiJl in lIe JaniI econon, noving nen's
vepvoduclive inlevesl incveasingI in Iine vilI lIose oJ lIeiv spouses.50
TIis sIiJl vas veIaled lo lIe venovaI oJ cIiIdven's voIe as econonic conlviIulovs, and
lo lIe incveasing cosl oJ cIiIdven, vIicI veve lIe consequence oJ lIvee pvocesses
|1) slale inlevvenlion in Jixing a nininun IegaI age al navviage, conpuIsov scIooI-
ing, a nininun IegaI vovIing age, and sociaI poIicies ained al vedislviIulive
juslice:
|2) lvansJovnalions in lIe IaIouv navIel, as in lIe incvease in lIe nunIev oJ sev-
vice posls suilaIIe Jov vonen |e.g. in lIe civiI sevvice):
|3) a cuIluvaI vedeJinilion oJ JaniI vesponsiIiIilies lovavds cIiIdven vIicI vesuIled
in a JIov oJ vesponsiIiIil Jivsl Jvon cIiIdven lo pavenls, and Ialev Jvon pavenls
lo cIiIdven. TIeve vas a vedeJinilion oJ nolIevIood Jvon cIiIdIeaving lo cIiId
veaving.5-
47 O. AIlev, 'TIeovies oJ JevliIil decIine A non-speciaIisl's guide lo lIe cuvvenl deIale', in J. B. OiIIis,
L. A. TiII and B. Levine |eds.), TIe Euvopean Expevience oJ BecIining FevliIil 1850-1970. TIe Quiel
BevoIulion, |OxJovd, 1992) p. 21.
48
IIid. pp. 24, 39.
49 E. SecconIe, 'Men's 'navilaI vigIls' and vonen's 'viJeI dulies CIanging conjugaI veIalions in lIe
JevliIil decIine', in OiIIis el aI., op. cil. in Jn. 46, p. 66.
50 IIid. p. 77.
51 C. Savaceno, 'Conslvucling JaniIies. SIaping vonen's Iives', in OiIIis el aI., op. cil. in Jn. 46, pp. 251-252.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 375
TIe cIange in pavenls' alliludes lovavds lIeiv cIiIdven vas nol nolivaled onI I lIe
JaniI's econonic silualion, Iul aIso I cIanges in vaIues vIicI enpIasized lIe quaIil
oJ cIiIdven, valIev lIan lIeiv quanlil.52
A Jealuve oJ lIe cuIluve oJ vepvoduclion vas lIe oIslvuclions I nenIevs oJ lIe
nedicaI pvoJession vIo iniliaII opposed IivlI conlvoI, sonelines Jov Iizavve veasons.
Leadevs oJ lIe BvilisI MedicaI Associalion condenned conlvaceplion as unnaluvaI, and
vavned lIal aII sovls oJ naIadies vouId IeJaII lIeiv usevs. Senen vas envisaged I sone
as an eIixiv Jov vonen's IeaIlI vIen aIsovIed lIvougI lIe vaginaI vaII
!5
FvoJessionaI
advocales oJ IivlI conlvoI veve, oJ couvse, opposed lo aIovlion, and sonelines lo lIe
use oJ condons, Iecause oJ lIeiv associalion vilI pvenavilaI inlevcouvse.
OlIev conlviIulions incIude a discussion oJ lIe IislovicaI eJJecls oJ vav on vonen's
voIes: a suIjecl nol coveved in convenlionaI lvansilion lIeov. In ils iniliaI slages, vav
gvealI expands vonen's voIes Iecause oJ lIe noIiIizalion oJ nen. Fosl-vav
denoIiIizalion Ivings lIen IacI lo JaniI vesponsiIiIilies. Accovding lo Winlev, lIis
vesuIled in lIe posl-vav IaI-Ioon.54 Hovevev, lIe vav opened vonen's ees lo
diJJevenl cIoices and diJJevenl voIes Jov lIenseIves. In lIe Iongev vun, JevliIil conlinued
lo decIine in accovdance vilI pve-vav lvends.
Haines vevieved lIe eJJecls oJ sociaI cIass in pvonoling ov velavding lIe lvansilion.55
Lees sIoved Iov lIe veIJave slale Jivsl encouvages JevliIil veduclion, Iul Ialev allenpls
lo pvevenl il.56 In sun, Iislovians Iave conlviIuled lo lvansilion lIeov, in sone cases
I using diJJevenl enpIases, and in olIevs I nev insigIls in lIe cuIluve suvvounding
vepvoduclion.
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY THE BOLE OF OOVEBNMENT
TIe voIe pIaed I govevnnenl is naniJeslI oJ gveal inpovlance in lIe decIine oJ IolI
novlaIil and JevliIil. WilI incveasingI aclive govevnnenls and lIe vise oJ lIe nalion
slale cane puIIic sevvices lIal veduced novlaIil - lIe pvovision oJ puve valev,
vaccinalion, conlvoI oJ epidenics and Janines, as veII as olIev puIIic IeaIlI neasuves.
Expansion oJ lIe peace avea in lIe nodevn slale veduced dealIs Jvon lviIaI and
inlevnecine vavJave: lIvougI poIicing il aIso veduced vioIence and incveased puIIic
saJel.
OovevnnenlaI inJIuence on JevliIil decIine is, oJ couvse, equaII appavenl.
ConpuIsov scIooIing incveased lIe cosl oJ cIiIdven, as did neasuves lo oulIav cIiId
IaIouv and cIiId expIoilalion. TIe cIanging slvucluve oJ lIe econon cvealed joIs
suilaIIe Jov vonen, nol Ieasl in govevnnenl ilseIJ.
TIe nosl conspicuous aspecl oJ inlevvenlion, Iovevev, is lIe allilude laIen I
govevnnenl and poIilicaI Ieadevs on popuIalion poIic. FevIaps nosl slviIing is lIe
expevience oJ CIina, vIeve lIe govevnnenl IauncIed a conpveIensive and vigidI
enJovced JaniI pIanning poIic duving lIe Iale 1960s vIicI IvougIl aIoul an
52
Savaceno, iIid. p. 252. See aIso J. ScIneidev and F. ScIneidev, 'Ooing Jovvavd in vevevse geav CuIluve,
econon, and poIilicaI econon in lIe denogvapIic lvends in a vuvaI SiciIian lovn', in OiIIis el aI., op. cil. in
Jn. 46, pp. 146-178. 'Bevevse geav' veJevs lo coilus inlevvuplus conpaliIIe vilI non-Weslevn ideas vIicI
acluaII pvonoled lIe lvansilion in lIe Iovev cIasses vIen used, valIev lIan lIe unIiIed nodevn conlvaceplive
|p. 225).
5 SecconIe, in OiIIis el aI., op. cil. in Jn. 46, p. 71.
5 J. M. Winlev, 'Wav, JaniI, and JevliIil in lvenlielI-cenluv Euvope', in OiIIis el aI., op. cil. in Jn. 46,
pp. 291-309. I suspecl, Iovevev, lIal a najov cause vas lIe naIing-up oJ sone oJ lIe deJicil in IivlIs caused
I lIe vav.
5 M. Haines, 'Occupalion and sociaI cIass duving lIe JevliIil decIine. HislovicaI pevspeclives' in OiIIis, el
aI., op. cil. in Jn. 46, pp. 193-226.
56 L. H. Lees, 'SaJel in nunIevs. SociaI veIJave IegisIalion and JevliIil decIine in Weslevn Euvope', OiIIis,
el aI., op. cil. in Jn. 46, pp. 310-325.
376 BUBLEY KIBK
unpvecedenled dvop in JevliIil in lIe 1970s, vIen lIe poIicies veve veIaxed and JevliIil
veacIed a pIaleau. TIis vas JoIIoved nove vecenlI I a veluvn lo lIe oId poIic and a
nev decIine oJ JevliIil vIicI IvougIl il dovn lo vepIacenenl IeveI, vilI a TF oJ 2.0 lo
2.1.
A conpavison oJ lIe expevience oJ lvo Lalin Anevican counlvies iIIuslvales
govevnnenl inJIuence in lIal vegion. In CoIonIia duving lIe nid-1960s a gvoup oJ
pvogvessive nedicaI pvaclilionevs ovganized a JaniI-pIanning associalion caIIed
FvoJaniIia, vIicI inilialed a connunil-Iased pvogvanne lo pvovide JaniI-pIanning
sevvices. TIe govevnnenl al Jivsl adopled a slance oJ Ienign neulvaIil, Iul Ialev Iegan
ilseIJ lo pvovide a nalionaI pvogvanne oJ JaniI pIanning. TF in CoIonIia vas cIose
lo 7 duving lIe eavI 1960s, Iul JeII vapidI lo ils pvesenl vaIue oJ 2.7.
In Mexico, lIe govevnnenl vas JivnI opposed lo JaniI pIanning unliI 1972, vIen
lIe poIic vas vevevsed and a nalionaI JaniI-pIanning pvogvanne IauncIed valIev
vapidI. TIe IivlI vale vIicI Iad venained al pve-lvansilion IeveIs unliI lIe eavI 1970s,
JeII pvecipilousI and ils couvse pavaIIeIed lIe decIine in CoIonIia and conlinued lo do
so unliI lIe pvesenl, lIougI al 3.2, TF in 1992 vas sliII IigIev in Mexico lIan in
CoIonIia, in spile oJ lIe Jacl lIal indices oJ socio-econonic slalus veve IigIev in
Mexico.
TIe expevience in FaIislan and BangIadesI iIIuslvales lIe Iinilalions oJ govevnnenl
inlevvenlion, vIen condilions ave nol vipe Jov il. Buving lIe 1960s, Fvesidenl AuI
KIan inlvoduced a cvasI pvogvanne Jov FaIislan. Il vas a conpIele JaiIuve and JevliIil
in FaIislan Ias onI Iegun lo JaII vev vecenlI.
In BangIadesI, lIe govevnnenl inilialed a caulious JaniI-pIanning pvogvanne vIicI
vas pvogvessiveI slvenglIened. B 1992, TF Iad JaIIen Jvon 7.0 vIicI appIied IeJove
lIe pvogvanne slavled lo 3.4. TIe diJJevence, vilI FaIislan, is lIal I lIe Ialev dale,
BangIadesI Iad Ieen aJJecled I Weslevnizalion, and exlvene povevl Iad spuvved on
puIIic and govevnnenlaI suppovl.
TIe inpovlance oJ poIilicaI ovienlalion is iIIuslvaled I lIe conpavalive expeviences
oJ SoulI and NovlI Kovea. In lIe BepuIIic oJ Kovea TF is 1.8, in lIe Benocvalic
BepuIIic oJ Kovea 2.5. In SoulI Kovea lIeve vas an aclive pvogvanne designed lo
pvovide InovIedge oJ and access lo JaniI pIanning. TIeve vas no sucI pvogvanne in
connunisl NovlI Kovea.
OvevaII, lIeve is as expecled a cIeav covveIalion Ielveen lIe slvenglI oJ lIe pvogvanne
eJJovl and vales oJ JevliIil decIine.57 AIso, lIe degvee oJ success is covveIaled vilI
veadiness lo adopl conlvaceplion, as neasuved I IeveI oJ socio-econonic deveIopnenl,
desived JaniI size elc.
WIiIe divecl inpIenenlalion oJ JaniI pIanning pvogvannes is undevlaIen I nalion
slales, inlevnalionaI guideIines and lavgels Iave Iad sone inJIuence, as, Jov inslance, lIe
WovId FIan oJ Aclion adopled al lIe FopuIalion ConJevence in BucIavesl in 1984. TIe
WovId FopuIalion ConJevence IeId in Caivo in SeplenIev 1994 eslaIIisIed a nove
conpveIensive pIan. TIe Caivo conJevence |JovnaII lIe InlevnalionaI ConJevence on
FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl) pvoduced a 'pvogvanne oJ aclion', a 20-eav IIuepvinl
Jov slaIiIizing vovId popuIalion and Josleving econonic and sociaI deveIopnenl. TIis
pvogvanne caIIed on govevnnenls lo pvovide 'univevsaI access lo a JuII vange oJ saJe and
veIiaIIe JaniI pIanning nelIods and lo veIaled vepvoduclive IeaIlI sevvices I lIe eav
2015'. In a dvanalic depavluve Jvon pvevious naniJeslos, il slales lIal vaising lIe slalus
oJ vonen is a pvevequisile Jov JuvlIev veduclions in IivlI vales. SucI inlevnalionaI
5 W. F. MauIdin and J. Boss, 'Fvospecls and pvogvans Jov JevliIil veduclion 1990-2015', Sludies in FaniI
FIanning, 25 |1994), pp. 77-95. See aIso lIe sane aulIovs' 'FaniI pIanning pvogvans. EJJovls and vesuIls',
Sludies in FaniI FIanning, 22 |1991), pp. 350-367.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 377
agveenenls ave Iound lo Iave an eJJecl on lIe adoplion oJ nalionaI JaniI-pIanning
pvogvannes.
Even vilI lIe spvead oJ JaniI pIanning pvogvannes and lIe consequenl incveased
use oJ conlvaceplion, eslinales oJ Juluve popuIalion gvovlI in lIe Iess deveIoped
counlvies caused I unvanled JevliIil uncIecIed I eJJeclive conlvaceplion ave
slaggeving. Besived JaniI size venains IigI in nan counlvies, and popuIalion
nonenlun vesuIling Jvon lIe Iavge pevcenlage oJ JenaIes oJ vepvoduclive age is anolIev
veason. Even iJ lIe Jivsl lvo Jaclovs veve lo Ie eIininaled eavI, |vIicI seens unIiIeI)
popuIalion nonenlun aIone viII cavv lIe popuIalion oJ lIe Iess deveIoped vovId lo
nucI IigIev nunIevs in lIe lvenl-Jivsl cenluv, so lIal JaniI pIanning pvogvannes,
no nallev Iov successJuI, viII nol Ie suJJicienl lo slen IigI popuIalion gvovlI.
An addilionaI slvaleg is needed lo veduce popuIalion gvovlI, vIicI vouId
enpIasize 'Iunan deveIopnenl', pavlicuIavI educalion, vaising vonen's slalus, and
inpvoving cIiId IeaIlI. OJ couvse, sucI poIicies couvse ave vaIued in lIeiv ovn vigIl, Iul
educalion, pavlicuIavI oJ givIs, Ias Ieen sIovn lo Ie lIe Jaclov nosl cIoseI veIaled lo
JevliIil decIine, I deIaing navviage and Jivsl IivlIs. Incveasing equaIil Ielveen lIe
sexes in IegaI, econonic, and sociaI aJJaivs vaises lIe cosl oJ cIiIdven I naIing voIes olIev
lIan cIiIdIeaving nove JeasiIIe and allvaclive lo vonen. Beducing cIiId novlaIil and
neasuves lo inpvove cIiId veIJave Iave evevvIeve Ieen associaled vilI JevliIil
veduclion.
Il is possiIIe lIal lIe Euvopean and Japanese expevience viII Ie vepealed in sone
counlvies in lIe conlenpovav undevdeveIoped aveas oJ lIe vovId vIicI ave nove
deveIoped. FevliIil Ias aIvead JaIIen IeIov vepIacenenl IeveI in Hong Kong,
Singapove, SoulI Kovea, and Taivan. In CIina, TF al 2.0 is al vepIacenenl IeveI. In
sone Euvopean counlvies veduclions in JevliIil Iave aIvead vesuIled in zevo naluvaI
incvease, ov even lIe Ieginning oJ popuIalion decIine, lIougI in sone cases lIe eJJecls
Iave Ieen veaIened I innigvalion.
Van de Kaa and olIevs vegavd a Juluve decIine oJ popuIalion in Euvope as inevilaIIe.
'WIen aII is said and done, lIe onI veasonaIIe expeclalion is lIal Euvope, al Ieasl nosl oJ
il, viII inevilaII see IivlI and dealI vales convevge al Iov IeveIs, JoIIoved I popuIalion
decIine'.58
Nol unnaluvaII, lIeve is gvoving inlevesl in eJJovls lo vaise JevliIil, valIev lIan veduce
il. In Fvance, oJ couvse, lIeve is a Iong Iislov oJ JaniI aIIovances designed Jov lIis
puvpose. Bul, excepl in speciaI civcunslances sucI pvogvannes Iave nol Ieen
conspicuousI successJuI.
THE SEABCH FOB CAUSALITY THE BOLE OF BIFFUSION
BiJJusionisl ideas ave connon in lIe denogvapIic Iilevaluve and can Ie Jound in lIe
eavIiesl exposilions oJ lvansilion lIeov. Bul even loda discussion oJ diJJusion dnanics
in lIe JevliIil lvansilion is IacIing in concepluaI cIavil, and IillIe allenlion is given lo
genevaI diJJusion lIeov, as pvesenled I Evevell Bogevs and olIevs.59 Yel vilIoul lIe
assunplion oJ diJJusion il vouId Ie diJJicuIl
- iJ nol inpossiIIe
- lo expIain lIe vapidil
and pevvasiveness oJ JevliIil decIines. WilI veason, sone aulIovs Iave depicled
diJJusion as a lIivd lpe oJ causaI agenl, in addilion lo suppI and denand.60
58
B. van de Kaa, 'Euvope's second denogvapIic lvansilion', FopuIalion BuIIelin, 42 |1987), WasIinglon
B.C. p. 46.
5 E. M. Bogevs, Connunicalion Slvaleg Jov FaniI FIanning, |Nev YovI, 1973).
60 C. L. Bosevo-BixI and J. CaslevIine, 'ModeIIing diJJusion eJJecls in JevliIil lvansilion', FopuIalion
Sludies, 42 |1993), pp. 147-167.
378 BUBLEY KIBK
TIe case Jov diJJusion is slvenglIened Iecause cIanges in vepvoduclive IeIaviouv Iave
pvoceeded nucI Jaslev lIan econonic cIanges vIicI Iave connonI Ieen given
pviovil. Move IvoadI, lIe videspvead adoplion oJ JaniI pIanning cannol Ie expIained
vilIoul assuning a najov diJJusion oJ nev ideas and lecIniques, nolaII in ils vapid
adoplion vilIin Iinguislic and cuIluvaI aveas in vIicI IeveIs oJ nodevnizalion diJJev
videI. BiJJusion is IiIeI lo JoIIov eslaIIisIed Iines oJ connunicalion Ielveen Jviends,
neigIIouvs, veIalives, and lIe IocaI connunil and in lIe Iavgev avena oJ connon
Ianguage and cuIluve and eslaIIisIed Iines oJ connunicalion.
BiJJusion is nol neveI a vesiduaI, Iul an aclive agenl in pvonoling ov velavding lIe
pvaclice oJ JevliIil conlvoI. HislovicaII, JevliIil veduclion is an innovalion JoIIoved I
diJJusion, nol neveI an adjuslnenl lo nev socio-econonic condilions. An individuaI's
ov coupIe's acceplance ov vejeclion oJ JaniI pIanning is expIained I lIe adoplion
polenliaI oJ an innovalion valIev lIan I socio-econonic condilions. Accovding lo
CavIson
BivlI conlvoI IeIaviouv is conlagious and lIe JevliIil IeIaviouv oJ a popuIalion is nol lIe
sinpIe aggvegale oJ isoIaled individuaI decisions, Iul lIe end pvoducl oJ conpIex sociaI
inlevaclions.61
In olIev vovds, conlvoI oJ JevliIil is as nucI a gvoup decision as a decision oJ an
individuaI ov coupIe. In lIe nodevn vovId JevliIil decIines ave nove cIoseI associaled
vilI lIe diJJusion oJ an idea lIan vilI nicvo-econonic Jovces.62
TIeve is a sIovlage oJ sludies on lIe voIe pIaed I diJJusion, excepl vilI veJevence lo
govevnnenl-ovganized IivlI conlvoI pvogvannes, vIeve il Ias Ieen lIe suIjecl oJ a
speciaI slud. Fveednan Ias enpIasized ils inpovlance. 'FaniI pvogvans ave unIiIeI
lo succeed unIess lIe veacI lIe nass oJ lIe vuvaI popuIalion lIvougI lIe snaII pvinav
gvoups lIal deJine lIe sociaI vovId oJ viIIage vesidenls.63
Il is no coincidence lIal lIe nev JevliIil lvansilion in Iess deveIoped aveas vas
acconpanied |and possiII pveceded) I lIe lvansnission oJ ideas lIvougI advances in
lIe nedia, nolaII vadio and especiaII leIevision. TIese can veadiI cvoss inlevnalionaI
Ioundavies even |pevIaps pavlicuIavI) vIen lIeiv puvpose is lo anuse valIev lIan lo
inslvucl. Bul lIeiv Iegilinalion vequives lIal lIe Ie conJivned in inJovnaI da-lo-da
connunicalions vilI signiJicanl olIevs, sucI as veIalives, Jviends, and Ieadevs in lIe
IocaI connunil. As WalIins Ias said 'even vIen lIe coupIe is IilevaII aIone in lIe
Iedvoon, lIe ecIoes oJ convevsalion vilI Iin and neigIIouvs inJIuence lIeiv aclion.64
A polenliaII JvuilJuI Iine oJ inquiv, especiaII in counlvies lIal ave jusl enleving lIe
JevliIil lvansilion is lIe nelvovIing lIal iniliales ov Iegilinizes IivlI conlvoI. TIis is
especiaII lvue oJ vuvaI popuIalions in vIicI sociaI conlvoI acls lIvougI gossip and
inJovnaI convevsalions lIal deJine lIe sociaI vovId oJ vesidenls. Hovevev, as McNicIoI
Ias pul il, lIe voIe oJ diJJusion 'is sliII descviplion in seavcI oJ a lIeov'. 65
61
O. CavIson, 'TIe decIine oJ JevliIil. Innovalion ov adjuslnenl pvocess?', FopuIalion Sludies, 20 |1966),
p. 165.
62
CIeIand and WiIson, Ioc. cil. in Jn. 34.
63
B. Fveednan, 'TIe conlviIulions oJ sociaI science veseavcI lo popuIalion poIic and JaniI pvogvan
eJJecliveness' Sludies in FaniI FIanning, 18 |1987), pp. 57-82.
64 S. Colls WalIins, 'Fvon IocaI lo nalionaI connunilies. TIe lvansJovnalion oJ denogvapIic vegions in
Weslevn Euvope, 1870-1960, FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 16 |1990), p. 242. WalIins Ias vepealedI
enpIasized lIe voIe oJ diJJusion and lIe inpovlance oJ sludies oJ Iov gossip and convevsalions vilI Iin,
Jviends, and connunil Ieadevs aJJecl lIe acceplance ov vejeclion oJ IivlI conlvoI.
65 O. McNicIoI, 'TIe agenda oJ popuIalion sludies. A connenlav and a conpIainl'. FopuIalion and
BeveIopnenl Beviev, 18 |1992), p. 406.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 379
TIis veviev Ias indicaled lIal aInosl an cIange in lIe diveclion oJ nodevnizalion
na Ie Iisled as a 'cause' oJ lIe lvansilion, and vigIlI so, since lIe denogvapIic
lvansilion is ilseIJ an inlegvaI pavl oJ lIe pvocess and Ience inlevveIaled vilI olIev
aspecls.
AII lIe aspecls oJ causaIil nenlioned aIove opevale lIvougI pvoxinale vaviaIIes,
sucI as age al navviage, age al Jivsl exposuve lo lIe visI oJ pvegnanc, IveaslJeeding,
coilaI Jvequenc |incIuding aIsence oJ spouse, ov veluvn oJ vonen lo lIeiv nalaI JaniI
lo give IivlI and Iive vilI lIen posl pavlun), inJevliIil as veII as conlvaceplion and
aIovlion. TIal is vI lIe cuIluve oJ vepvoduclion is so inpovlanl.
AnolIev aspecl oJ causalion is lIe voIe pIaed I conlvaceplive lecInoIog vIicI, in
sone cases, is lIe nosl oIvious cause oJ denogvapIic cIange. MuvpI Ias sIovn lIal
JevliIil cIange in Bvilain duving lIe 1960s and 1970s vas doninaled I lIe spvead oJ
lIe conlvaceplive piII, valIev lIan I venole econonic Jaclovs,66 lIe inpovlance oJ
vIicI Ie suggesls Iave Ieen ovevenpIasized.
TIis veviev na Ieave an inpvession oJ cIaos. An adnivaIIe eJJovl lo pvovide sslen
and ovdev is lIe lvo-voIune vovI on Belevninanls oJ FevliIil in BeveIoping Counlvies.67
TIese voIunes conlain sone 38 conlviIulions, incIuding nan I Ieading denogvapIevs
none oJ vIon conlviIuled lo lIe Fvincelon Euvopean FevliIil Slud, and convevseI.
Favl oJ lIe veason Jov lIis nuluaI sepavalion is due lo lIe Jacl lIal one vovI deaIs vilI
Euvopean denogvapIic Iislov, lIe olIev vilI lIe silualion in conlenpovav Iess
deveIoped counlvies. NevevlIeIess, lIeve is a nolaIIe diJJevence in poinls oJ viev, one
vovI is concenlvaled on cuIluvaI and elInic diJJevences, lIe olIev uses a Iasic JvanevovI
devived Jvon econonic lIeov.
IJ lIeve is a singIe ov pvincipaI cause oJ JevliIil decIine, il is veasonaIIe lo ascviIe il
lo JaIIs in novlaIil, vIicI vas lIe najov cause oJ deslaIiIizalion. Il vas a vilaI Jaclov
in veducing lIis passive JalaIisn cIavaclevislic oJ nosl oJ Iunan Iislov.
TIese and olIev conlviIulions Iave given a deepev neaning lo lvansilion lIeov. Bul
sevevaI olIev poinls ave veIevanl.
|1) AII lIe suggesled causes oJ lIe lvansilion ave, in Jacl, cIoseI IinIed, and IiIe lIe
denogvapIic lvansilion ilseIJ ave an essenliaI pavl oJ lIe pvocess oJ nodevnizalion. No
counlv Ias Ieen nodevnized vilIoul going lIvougI lIe denogvapIic lvansilion, and
lIis is IiIeI lo Ie lIe case in lIe Juluve as veII:
|2) Because econonic and socio-econonic Jealuves ave nove easiI neasuved and
Ience vegavded as Ieing 'nove scienliJic', lIe Iave Ieen accovded a pevIaps undesevved
doninance in expIanalov lIeovies. TIis is nove evidenl in Anevican lIan in Euvopean
vvilings on lIe suIjecl:
|3) TIe oviginaI lIeov vilI vIicI nosl lIeovies oJ causalion ave nuluaII conpaliIIe
vas vev Ivoad, Iul enpIasized diJJevenl eIenenls:
|4) TIe pvoposed vevisions ave no nove aIIe lo pvedicl lIe inilialion and cause oJ lIe
lvansilion lIan lIe oviginaI lIeovisls.
TIe Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl did denonslvale lIal once lIe JevliIil lvansilion Iad
Ieen eslaIIisIed in a Iinguislic ov cuIluvaI avea in Euvope il spvead vapidI and
independenlI oJ socio-econonic IeveI acIieved. TIougI lIis Iad nol Ieen genevaII
Jovecasl, il did, in Jacl, so spvead in Lalin Anevica, and in aveas oJ CIinese cuIluve in
Easl Asia. Again, lIe Iallev deveIopnenl vas nol Jovecasl, Iul onI oIsevved aJlev lIe
evenl. Il venains lo Ie seen vIelIev lIe sane pvocess viII appI in lIe AvaI ov MosIen
MiddIe Easl, and in suI-SaIavan AJvica.
66
M. MuvpI, 'TIe conlvaceplive piII and JenaIe enpIonenl as Jaclovs in JevliIil cIange in Bvilain
1963-80. A cIaIIenge lo lIe convenlionaI viev', FopuIalion Sludies, 42 |1993), pp. 221-243.
67 See Jn. 37.
380 BUBLEY KIBK
TIe divevsil oJ cuIluves, socio-econonic IeveIs, and denogvapIic Jaclovs, sucI as age
al navviage, pvecIude pvecise pvediclion. TIis JaiIuve is neilIev unique nov is il Iiniled
lo denogvapIic lIeovies: il is cIavaclevislic oJ aII lIeovies in lIe sociaI sciences.
Bul I veluvn lo an eavIiev lIene. No unique cause exisls. FevIaps aII aspecls oJ
nodevnizalion na Ie descviIed as veIaled lo lIe denogvapIic lvansilion vIicI in ilseIJ
is an essenliaI pavl oJ nodevnizalion. In a pevceplive avlicIe, Kaven OppenIein Mason
vvole
'Il is line lo slop JigIling aIoul an eilIev/ov scenavio and lo vecognize lIal lIeve is IiIeI lo
Ie a conpIex inlevpIa anong sevevaI Jaclovs invoIved in an JevliIil decIine - vilI a
diJJevenl nix invoIved in eacI decIine,68
Mosl oJ lIe pvesenl papev Ias Ieen devoled lo lIe delevninanls oJ JevliIil and
novlaIil, valIev lIan lo lIe lvansilion as a delevninanl oJ socio-econonic IeveIs and
lvends. BenogvapIic cIange vas pevceived as Ieing delevnined I socio-econonic
causes, valIev lIan as an inlevaclion Ielveen lIen.
TIe econonic inpIicalions oJ lIe denogvapIic lvansilion ave nan, Iul ave loo
conpIex lo Ie JuII discussed Ieve. TIe Iave Ieen ovganized and JuII discussed I
CIesnais in Iis inpvessive IooI on lIe denogvapIic lvansilion.69
BvoadI, lIeve ave lvo opposing lIeovelicaI pevspeclives in vIicI lIe naluve oJ lIe
denogvapIic lvansilion can Ie discussed. TIe Jivsl sees popuIalion gvovlI, and
especiaII vapid popuIalion gvovlI, as a najov IvaIe on econonic deveIopnenl. TIe
second vievs il as a slinuIanl lo econonic gvovlI. TIe Jivsl is cIavaclevislicaII used
vIen veJevving lo lIe Iess deveIoped vovId, lIe second Jov induslviaI econonies vilI Iov
JevliIil.
A vev sevious and inpovlanl cvilicisn oJ lIe inpIicalions oJ lIe JevliIil lvansilion Jov
puIIic poIicies Ias Ieen pul Jovvavd duving lIe vecenl pasl. TIis is lIe Jinding lIal vapid
popuIalion gvovlI is nol necessaviI, nov even usuaII, a cvuciaI inpedinenl lo
econonic deveIopnenl and vising incones.70
BvanalicaII diJJevenl vesuIls can Ie oIlained I sIigIl cIanges in lIe iniliaI
assunplions.71 Evidence oJ lIe cIanging viev is lIe NalionaI BeseavcI CounciI's vepovl
on FopuIalion OvovlI and Econonic OvovlI, vIeve il is slaled
'Bul il is cIeav despile vapid popuIalion gvovlI deveIoping counlvies Iave acIieved
unpvecedenled [gains in] IeveIs oJ incone pev capila, Iilevac, and IiJe expeclanc ovev lIe pasl
25 eavs.72
In eavIiev sludies il Ias Ieen assevled lIal IigI dependenc valios caused I lIe Iavge
nunIev oJ cIiIdven in counlvies in vIicI JevliIil vas IigI vouId vequive incveased
expendiluve on educalion, and lIus veduce lIe savings needed lo acIieve econonic
gvovlI. In nove vecenl sludies no cIeav veIalion Ias Ieen eslaIIisIed Ielveen inveslnenl
in educalion and olIev sociaI neasuves on one Iand, and age slvucluve and vales oJ
popuIalion gvovlI on lIe olIev.73
68
K. OppenIein Mason, 'CuIluve and JevliIil lvansilion. TIougIls on lIeovies oJ JevliIil decIine'. Oenus,
40 |1992), pp. 1-14.
69
J. C. CIesnais, TIe BenogvapIic Tvansilion. Slages, Fallevns and Econonic InpIicalions. TvansIaled Jvon
lIe FvencI. |OxJovd, CIavendon Fvess, 1992).
70
CJ. S. EnIe, Econonics Jov BeveIopnenl |Fvenlice HaII, 1963), and CoaIe and Hoovev, op. cil. in Jn. 12.
7 H. LeiIenslein, A TIeov oJ Econonic-BenogvapIic BeveIopnenl |Fvincelon, Fvincelon Univevsil Fvess,
1954): B. AIIIevg, 'TIe inpacl oJ popuIalion gvovlI on econonic gvovlI in deveIoping nalions. TIe
evidence Jvon nacvo-econonic denogvapI' in B. O. JoInson and B. Lee |eds.), FopuIalion OvovlI and
Econonic BeveIopnenl Issues and Evidence |Madison, Wisconsin, 1987).
72 NalionaI BeseavcI CounciI, FopuIalion OvovlI and Econonic OvovlI, |WasIinglon, B.C. 1986).
7 CJ. T. F. ScIuIlz, 'ScIooI expendiluves and envoInenls, 1960-80', in JoInson and Lee, op. cil. in Jn.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 381
TIese Jindings Iave vesuIled in incveasingI slvained veIalions Ielveen lIe scienliJic
vovId and poIic-ovienled aulIovs. TIe Jovnev Iave Ieen IIaned Jov undevnining a
najov valionaIe Jov IivlI conlvoI pvogvannes lo veduce JevliIil.
THE CUBBENT STATE OF THE TBANSITION
WilI 50 eavs oJ IindsigIl, vIeve does lIe denogvapIic lvansilion sland loda?
Fivsl, given a nodicun oJ doneslic and inlevnalionaI peace, novlaIil Ias JaIIen in
evev counlv and Ias Ieen a pavl oJ socio-econonic pvogvess. TIe novlaIil lvansilion
Ias spvead lIvougI nosl oJ lIe vovId. LiJe expeclanc in induslviaI IigI-incone
counlvies is nov Ielveen 75 and 80 eavs and na Ie appvoacIing a ceiIing, Iul, al Iesl
an JuvlIev incveases viII Ie sIov. InJanl novlaIil in lIese counlvies is Iess lIan 10 pev
1,000 IivlIs, and JuvlIev pvogvess can onI Ie sIov and ils inpacl nininaI. TIe Iovesl
inJanl novlaIil Ias Ieen veacIed in Japan vilI a vale oJ Jive pev 1,000, vIicI nusl Ie
cIose lo lIe IioIogicaI nininun.
TIese counlvies Iave pvesunaII veacIed lIe end oJ lIe novlaIil lvansilion. TIe vesl
oJ lIe vovId is on a noving escaIalov oJ decIining novlaIil. OnI in suI-SaIavan AJvica
do pve-nodevn IeveIs oJ novlaIil pevsisl, Iul even in lIal vegion, lIeve is pvogvess.
Anong counlvies vilI nove lIan one niIIion inIaIilanls IiJe expeclanc al IivlI is Iess
lIan 50 eavs in 18, aII in suI-SaIavan AJvica. Bul as vecenlI as 1975 lIeve veve 43 sucI
counlvies, and in 1960 lIe nunIev vas aIoul 70. Apavl Jvon vavs, inlevnaI vioIence, and
naluvaI calaslvopIes dealI vales ave JaIIing evevvIeve.
SecondI, lIe JevliIil lvansilion Ias veacIed evev najov vegion. Il Ias aJJecled evev
counlv in Lalin Anevica and lIe CaviIIean, vilI lIe possiIIe exceplion oJ Haili. In
Asia, lIe lvansilion Ias Iegun in aII najov counlvies, nosl slviIingI in CIina, vIeve
JevliIil Ias nov Ieen Iov Jov nove lIan a decade |al a IeveI oJ 2.1-2.5, and nov al 2.0
sIigIlI IeIov vepIacenenl IeveI). Appavenl exceplions ave navginaI AJgIanislan,
BIulan, nosl oJ lIe AvaI MusIin counlvies in Asia Minov, and vav-lovn CanIodia and
Laos. Vielnan Ias cIeavI enleved lIe lvansilion.
Counlvies vilI MosIen lvadilions Iave Ieen sIovev lo enlev lIe lvansilion lIan
olIevs. Bul in lIe Iavgesl MosIen counlv, Indonesia, TF vas 3.0 in 1991 veII on lIe va
lo vepIacenenl IeveI. TIe AvaI NovlI AJvican counlvies ave veII advanced in lIe
lvansilion. In FaIislan, and nove venavIaII in BangIadesI, lIeve is novenenl. In lIe
Iallev vev poov counlv, JevliIil decIine Ias Ieen aslonisIing. Nol nan eavs ago, TF
vas Ielveen six and seven cIiIdven pev vonan. B 1990-91 lIe Jiguve vas 4.3, and onI
lIvee eavs Ialev il vas 3.4.
BesuIls Jvon lIe 1992-93 NalionaI HeaIlI Suvve in India, Iased on sone 90,000
vespondenls sIoved nalionaI TF lo Ie 3.39, vilI one slale
-
KevaIa
-
IeIov vepIacenenl
IeveI vilI a Jiguve oJ 1.8.
TIe JevliIil lvansilion Ias even veacIed pavls oJ MosIen Asia Minov. FevliIil Ias
cIeavI JaIIen in BaIvain and Qalav |TF 4.2 and 4.5 vespecliveI), and lo sone exlenl in
Kuvail and lIe AvaI Enivales. In Saudi AvaIia, and especiaII in Onan, TF venains
IigI al 6.5 and 7.8 vespecliveI.74
Mosl vesislanl lo cIange Ias Ieen suI-SaIavan AJvica. Hovevev, sone JevliIil decIine
Ias Ieen vepovled vecenlI in aII lIe 20 counlvies oJ lIe vegion coveved I lIe
BenogvapIic and HeaIlI Suvve, vilI lIe exceplion oJ Uganda. MelIodoIogicaI
pvoIIens vaise douIls aIoul lIe veaIil oJ lIese decIines in a nunIev oJ counlvies, Iul
lIeve is cIeav evidence oJ a JaII in JevliIil in conliguous counlvies oJ soulIevn AJvica,
7 'Six AvaI nalions sIov considevaIIe vavialion in cuvvenl JevliIil IeveIs and inJanl novlaIil vales',
InlevnalionaI FaniI FIanning Fevspeclives, 20 |1994), pp. 79-81.
382 BUBLEY KIBK
incIuding Bolsvana, ZinIaIve, LesolIo, SvaziIand, NaniIia, and especiaII lIe IIacI
popuIalion oJ SoulI AJvica. WIal is pevIaps nosl slviIing is lIal lIe TF Jov lIe IIacI
popuIalion oJ lIe cIieJ cilies is nov 2.6, a Jiguve vIicI, given lIe IigI IeveI oJ novlaIil
in lIese counlvies is neav lIe vepIacenenl IeveI oJ 2.1 lo 2.2.
In olIev pavls oJ lIe vegion, lIe nosl dvanalic evidence Jov JevliIil decIine cones
Jvon Kena. Fvon a silualion vIeve lIe TF exceeded eigIl, |lIe IigIesl vecovded
JevliIil in lIe vovId), JevliIil Ias appavenlI JaIIen pvecipilousI. In genevaI, pvogvess
Ias Ieen gvealesl in lIe Jovnev BvilisI coIonies, lIe Jovnev Fovluguese and IlaIian
coIonies Iave Iagged IeIind: lIe IigIesl IeveIs cuvvenlI vepovled ave Jound in lIe
Jovnev FvencI SaIeI, excepl SenegaI. Il is pvoIaIIe lIal suvves laIen duving lIe 1990s
viII add sevevaI, pevIaps nan, counlvies lo lIe Iisl oJ lIose vIicI ave cIeavI
expeviencing JevliIil decIine.
In sIovl, lIe JevliIil lvansilion is Ieconing univevsaI and evev counlv can Ie pIaced
on a conlinuun oJ pvogvess in lIe lvansilion, as vas pvedicled sone 50 eavs ago.75
TIivdI, once lIe JevliIil lvansilion Ias Iegun |e.g. I a len pev cenl veduclion) il is
inescapaIIe. In evev counlv in lIe vovId, given a nodicun oJ peace and pvospevil,
novlaIil conlinues lo decIine. Once a counlv Ias slavled JivnI on lIe palI oJ JevliIil
decIine, il Ias Ieen successJuI in veducing il lo Iov IeveIs. Sone aulIovs Iave assevled
lIal lIe IaI Ioon in lIe Uniled Slales and sone olIev counlvies pvovided evidence Jov
lIe conlvav viev. Bul in genevaI lIese pIenonena Iave pvoven lo Ie lenpovav IIips
in a conlinuing pvocess oJ cIange. An inlevesling case is Nazi Oevnan, vIeve lIeve vas
a suIslanliaI veIound in JevliIil aIIegedI caused I govevnnenl poIic and pvopaganda.
Hovevev, il Ias Ieen sIovn lIal lIe nain cause oJ lIis incvease vas a veduclion in
unenpIonenl and lIal il did nol conlinue aJlev lIe vav.
A nunIev oJ papevs Iave Ieen puIIisIed vIicI suggesl lIal in sone counlvies
incIuding Cosla Bica, Tvinidad and ToIago, and MaIasia lIe decIine slaIIed al a IeveI
veII aIove vepIacenenl. Il venains lo Ie seen vIelIev nove vecenl nev inJovnalion viII
conJivn lIis. Mosl convincing is lIe case oJ Avgenlina, vIicI is nol oJlen nenlioned in
lIis conlexl. In lIis counlv vilI a popuIalion IavgeI oJ Euvopean ovigin, JevliIil Iad
JaIIen eavIiev, Iul lIe decIine slaIIed vIen TF vas aIoul 3.0, and lIe pvesenl IeveI is
vepovled as aIoul 2.6. Quile signiJicanl aIso is lIe silualion in Ivan, vIeve lIe IivlI vale
incveased JoIIoving lIe consevvalive MusIin vevoIulion, Iul nove vecenlI JevliIil
decIine Ias Ieen vesuned. Il is, oJ couvse, aIvas possiIIe lIal slvong pvo-nalaIisl aclion
on lIe pavl oJ govevnnenl in a counlv na Iving aIoul a slvong and pevnanenl vevevsaI
oJ lIe lvend, Iul lIis Ias nol el Ieen vepovled as Iaving occuvved anvIeve, and seens
unIiIeI lo do so in lIe Juluve.
FouvlII, conlvav lo lIe vievs oJ a nunIev oJ pvesligious oIsevvevs, JevliIil decIine
in lIe Iess deveIoped counlvies |excIuding CIina) did nol veaII sIov up duving lIe 1980s.
Il did sIov in aIsoIule levns, Iul nol in levns oJ lIe pevcenlage decIines vequived lo
veacI vepIacenenl |TF
=
2.1). TIe Iess deveIoped counlvies appeav lo Iave expevienced
as gveal a veduclion in JevliIil duving lIe 1980s as lIe did eavIiev. TIis anonaI is due
lo lIe Jacl lIal lIe Iess deveIoped counlvies as a vIoIe veve JuvlIev aIong lIe palI oJ
lvansilion in lIe 1980s, so lIal vIiIe quanlilalive decIines veve snaIIev, lIe pevcenlage
decIines veve equivaIenl.76
In CIina lIeve vas, indeed, a lenpovav slaII. AJlev a vev pvecipilous decIine
associaled vilI slvong govevnnenl IacIing Jov IivlI conlvoI poIicies duving lIe 1970s
75 B. KivI, 'FopuIalion cIange and lIe poslvav vovId', Anevican SocioIogicaI Beviev, 91 |1944), pp.
28-35.
76 B. Fveednan and A. K. BIanc, 'FevliIil lvansilion. An updale', InlevnalionaI FaniI FIanning
Fevspeclives, 18 |1992), pp. 44-50.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 383
vIicI Ioveved lIe TF lo 2.3 in 1980, JevliIil JIuclualed avound lIis Jiguve duving lIe
JoIIoving decade, as lIe vigid anli-nalaI poIicies oJ lIe peviod veve veIaxed. Hovevev,
CIinese JevliIil Ias JaIIen again duving lIe Iasl Jev eavs. TF Ias JaIIen I aInosl one-
quavlev Ielveen 1987 and 1992, Jvon 2.46 lo 1.9.
FiJlII, lIe lining oJ decIine in counlvies vilI non-Euvopean lvadilions conJovned lo
lIe Jovecasls I lIe oviginaI aulIovs oJ lvansilion lIeov. WilIoul exceplion, JaIIs in
novlaIil pveceded decIines in JevliIil. WIiIsl lIe oviginalovs oJ lvansilion lIeov gvealI
undeveslinaled lIe vale oJ incvease lIal vouId enevge, in genevaI lIe peviod oJ lIe
lvansilion in non-Euvopean counlvies vas sIovlev lIan in counlvies inIaIiled I
Euvopeans.
SixlII, in Euvope JevliIil Ias decIined lo veII IeIov vepIacenenl IeveI, and in a Jev
aveas popuIalion acluaII decIined, lIougI lIe eJJecl Ias Ieen lenpeved I innigvalion
in sone cases.
SevenlII, lIe nev IaIance oJ IivlIs and dealIs Jovecasl I lIe eavI pvoponenls oJ
lvansilion lIeov Ias nol naleviaIized. Excepl Jov a Jev oulIievs, IiIe IceIand, IveIand,
and AIIania, JevliIil Ias Ieen IeIov vepIacenenl in aII Euvopean counlvies. Mosl
slviIing is lIe silualion in SoulIevn Euvope |IlaI, Spain, FovlugaI, and Oveece) vIeve
TF al pvesenl is Ielveen 1.3 and 1.4, lvo-lIivds oJ vepIacenenl IeveI.
Vev Iov vaIues oJ TF Iave aIso Ieen Jound in sone non-Euvopean counlvies, sucI
as Japan, Hong Kong, Singapove, SoulI Kovea, and Taivan, Iul in none Ias lIeve Ieen
a veIound, excepl Jov a IeveIIing oJJ al 1.8 in Singapove, vIeve lIe govevnnenl Ias
adopled a pvonalaIisl poIic.
EigIlII, lIe lvansilion is nov Ieginning al incveasingI Iovev IeveIs oJ socio-
econonic deveIopnenl. TIis is nosl slviIing in BangIadesI, one oJ lIe poovesl nalions
in lIe vovId.
TIe suvvivaI oJ lvansilion lIeov is enIanced I lIe Jacl lIal lIeve is no lIeov oJ
equaI vaIue vIicI couId Ie used lo Jovecasl Juluve popuIalion lvends, ov acl as a guide
lo enpivicaI veseavcI. As CIesnais Ias slaled 'il is lIe onI inlevpvelalive scIene vIicI
veJIecls a snlIelic and coIevenl viev oJ conlenpovav denogvapIic cIanges'.77
CIesnais's IooI is lIe nosl lIovougI veviev oJ lIe lIeov puIIisIed duving lIe Iasl
decade and nevils speciaI allenlion. He slales lIal vIiIe lIe aIove is lIe lIeov's
gvealesl slvenglI, ils aIIeged gvealesl veaIness is ils inaIiIil lo pvedicl lIe lining oJ
speciJic pallevns oJ Juluve deveIopnenl in pavlicuIav counlvies. Hovevev, lIis veaIness
is connon in aII lIe sociaI sciences. LiIe nan olIevs, CIesnais depIoves lIe Jacl lIal
lIe oviginaI lIeov Iad IillIe lo sa aIoul lIe pavl pIaed I nupliaIil and olIev cuIluvaI
aspecls in cvealing videI divevgenl JevliIil IeveIs in pve-nodevn ov lvadilionaI socielies.
He aIso cvilicizes lIe eavIiesl pvoponenls oJ lIe lIeov Jov ignoving, as did nan
suIsequenl connenlalovs, lIe pavls pIaed I inlevnalionaI nigvalion and lIe
deveIopnenl oJ lvanspovl and connunicalions in nodevn lines.
TIus, sone aulIovs vegavded lIe eavI lvansilion vIicI occuvved in BuIgavia, in spile
oJ ils Iov IeveI oJ deveIopnenl, as an exceplion lo lIe lIeov. Hovevev, lIe expIanalion
Ieve is lIe BanuIe vIicI Ias Jov a Iong line sevved as an avenue oJ lvade and
connunicalion. As lIe pvesenl vvilev Ias noled eavIiev, JevliIil duving lIe inlev-vav
peviod and in lIe nid-slvean oJ lvansilion, Iad genevaII Ieen Iovesl in aveas adjoining
lIe BanuIe in Auslvia, Hungav, YugosIavia, Bonania, and BuIgavia lIan in olIev
vegions oJ lIese counlvies vIicI veve nove venole Jvon lIis inpovlanl avlev oJ
connevce and connunicalion.78
77 CIesnais, op. cil. in Jn. 68.
78
B. KivI, Euvope's FopuIalion in lIe Inlev-vav Yeavs |League oJ Nalions, 1946), Fig. 17 and CIaplevs 5
and 12.
384 BUBLEY KIBK
In Iis IooI CIesnais idenliJies and lesls lIvee cenlvaI pvoposilions oJ lvansilion
lIeov
|1) TIe cIvonoIogicaI sequence oJ novlaIil decIining Jivsl, JoIIoved I decIining
JevliIil. He sIovs lIal nosl oJ lIe exceplions ciled ave nol veaI exceplions al aII.79 TIis
is nade nove pIausiIIe I lIe cIavge lIal lIe evidence connonI pvesenled |e.g. lIe
Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl) is nelIodoIogicaII JIaved:
|2) He pvovides a nodeI oJ lIe vepvoduclive lvansilion in lvo pIases veslviclion oJ
navviage JoIIoved I Iinilalion oJ IivlIs. TIis vas nol incIuded in eavIiev vevsions oJ lIe
lIeov, and is a suilaIIe nodiJicalion oJ lvansilion in Euvope.
|3) TIe inJIuence oJ nodevnizalion on lIe onsel oJ JevliIil decIine. EavIiev vevsions
oJ lIe lIeov vegavded socio-econonic deveIopnenl as an essenliaI ingvedienl Iul JaiIed
lo pvedicl lIe divevsil oJ denogvapIic and socio-econonic condilions duving lIe
lvansilion. Bul despile lIe nuIlipIicil oJ IislovicaI, geogvapIicaI, and inslilulionaI
conlexls, il venains lvue lIal lIe lvansilion vas pvonoled I siniIav necIanisns.
AnolIev aspecl is lIal eavI and |nan Ialev) vevsions oJ lIe lIeov JaiIed lo nole lIe
inpovlance oJ incveased inlevnalionaI novenenls |nigvalion, lvade, connunicalions,
and lvanspovl), and lIal lIe Joundevs oJ lIe lIeov undeveslinaled lIe inpovlance oJ
innovalion and diJJusion. TIe vapid spvead oJ JaniI pIanning in a speciJic cuIluvaI ov
Iinguislic avea vas nol Joveseen, Iul Ias Iecone a vev useJuI nodiJicalion oJ eavI
lvansilion lIeov. As noled aIove, even pvoponenls oJ diJJusion lIeov Iave nol aIvas
JuII vecognized lIe inpovlance oJ connunicalions and lvade.
THE INSTITUTIONAL BACKOBOUNB OF TBANSITION THEOBY
Even vilI lIe IindsigIl oJ 50 eavs il Ias nol Ieen vesoIved vIelIev lIe denogvapIic
lvansilion is a lIeov, a genevaIizalion, a JvanevovI Jov anaIsis, ov neveI an 'idea'. Ov
is il an 'IislovicaI nodeI, pvediclive nodeI, ov a neve descviplive levn'? TIe deIale
aIoul lIe slalus oJ lvansilion lIeov conlinues lo occup a cenlvaI pIace in denogvapI.
Becenl denogvapIic Iilevaluve Ias lo sone exlenl luvned Jvon lIe discussion oJ
suIslanlive issues lo expIanalions oJ lIe lIeov's suvvivaI, ils inslilulionaI conlexls, and
ils pIiIosopIicaI Joundalions. In sinpIesl levns, lIe lIeov Ias suvvived Iecause no
Iellev lIeov Ias enevged lo expIain denogvapIic IeIaviouv in lIe nodevn vovId.
Fov sone Iislovians, lvansilion lIeov vas 'dvanalicaII sIalleved' I lIe vovI oJ
IislovicaI denogvapIevs, pavlicuIavI lIe Euvopean FevliIil Fvojecl. Bul as Ias Ieen
poinled oul aIove, sone oJ lIe appavenlI danaging concIusions oJ lIis slud can Ie
cIaIIenged on nelIodoIogicaI gvounds.
TIe inslilulionaI conlexl Ias Ieen expIoved anongsl olIevs I Bennis Hodgson and
Sinon Szvelev.80 In Iis scIoIavI papev Szvelev conlvasls lIe veceplion oJ TIonpson's
avlicIe in 1929 vilI lIal oJ Noleslein's in 1945. He allviIules lIis cIange lo lIvee Jaclovs
|1) A cIanged inslilulionaI conlexl |i.e. lIe 'IeigIlened IeveI oJ acceplaIiIil oJ
econonic and sociaI pIanning I govevnnenl)' al lIe end oJ WovId Wav II, exenpIiJied
I lIe Nev BeaI pvojecls oJ lIe 1930s:
|2) inleIIecluaI deveIopnenls concevning lIe Iegilinac oJ slale econonic pIanning
|e.g. a nev snlIesis Ielveen Kenesian and neo-cIassicaI econonics, Jocused on
govevnnenl poIic and pIanning in econonic nallevs):
7 Op. cil. pp. 170-182.
80
B. Hodgson, 'OvlIodox and vevisionisn in Anevican denogvapI', FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl
Beviev, 14 |1988), pp. 541-569, and S. Szvelev. 'TIe idea oJ denogvapIic lvansilion and lIe slud oJ JevliIil
cIange. A cvilicaI inleIIecluaI Iislov', FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 19 |1993), pp. 659-701.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 385
|3) TIe JovnuIalion oJ lvansnalionaI inslilulions Jov lIe valionaI nanagenenl and
co-ovdinalion oJ vovId poIilicaI and econonic aJJaivs, as in lIe Uniled Nalions.
Tvansilion lIeov pvovides a genevaI IislovicaI nodeI oJ Iov aII cuvvenl and enevging
coIoniaI and non-Euvopean socielies couId Ie pIaced in vanI ovdev, and an evoIulionav
lpoIog conslvucled
'lIe idea oJ denogvapIic lvansilion Ias conlinued lo pvovide IolI a vead-nade valionaIe Jov
poIilicaI aclivisn and a convenienl pvojeclion looI Jov Jovecasling denogvapIic Juluves undev
vaving assunplions, as lo poIic eJJecliveness.... Il is lIis uliIil Jov lIe JaniI pIanning
induslv lIal IeIps lo expIain lIe suvvivaI and pevsislence oJ lIe idea Jov denogvapIic
lvansilion.8'
Benen Ias assevled lIal lIeve Ias Ieen a 'pvoslilulion' oJ denogvapI vIen il vas
used lo sevve lIe inlevesls oJ inlevnalionaI JaniI pIanning pvogvannes. He dvavs a
dislinclion Ielveen scienliJic and poIic veseavcI and Jinds lIal vecenlI denogvapI Ias
incveasingI Ieen allvacled I lIe Iallev, a decision lIal 'lIeiv lasI is nol jusl lo inlevpvel
lIe vovId, Iul lo cIange il'.82
I can lesliJ Jvon pevsonaI InovIedge lIal lIe Joundevs oJ lvansilion lIeov veve nol
al Jivsl allvacled I ils poIic inpIicalions, Iul I ils scienliJic vaIue. Hovevev, Szvelev
Jinds lIal
'denogvapIic lvansilion lIeov vas ilseIJ a pvoducl oJ a pavlicuIav conceplion oJ sociaI
science as al one and lIe sane line, an engine Jov invesligalion and Jov pvediclion and
guidance Jov sociaI cIange'.A3
Incveasing allenlion Ias Ieen devoled lo lIe pIiIosopIicaI Iasis oJ lvansilion lIeov.
TIus, Szvelev assevls lIal 'lIe ain oJ scienliJic expIanalion and ils nelIods is lIeveJove
undevslanding onI and nol pvediclion ov 'conlvoI'. He Jinds lIal Noleslein, Bavis, and
lIeiv coIIeagues 'in lIe innediale posl-vav genevalion veve aIvead speaIing lIe sane
epislenoIogicaI and nelIodoIogicaI Ianguage as poIic scienlisls and adninislvalovs.84
NaluvaI scienlisls especiaII, and olIevs nigIl Jind lIis Iislovian's inlevpvelalion valIev
suvpvising in lIal lIe lvue lesl oJ an scienliJic lIeov Iies in ils capacil lo pvedicl.
In Szvelev's viev lIeve is need Jov an accunuIalion oJ palienl, caveJuII concepluaIized
invesligalive pvojecls lIal slud JevliIil cIanges in speciJic connunilies, vIeve lIe Jovn
lIal JevliIil cIange laIes is nol pvejudged, as is done I lIose vIo suIscviIe lo lIe idea
oJ JevliIil lvansilion.
'lo undevsland cIanging JevliIil vequives lIe IislovicaI veconslvuclion in speciJic conlexls oJ
lIe vaving vas in vIicI cIanges Iave occuvved in lIe pevceived veIalive cosls oJ cIiId-
Ieaving.8
One vondevs vIelIev incveasing nunIevs oJ sludies viII pvovide nan nev ansvevs
Jov lIe nacvo-lvends used in lvansilion lIeov.
CONCLUSION
TIe denogvapIic lvansilion vas Iovn a Iusl inJanl sone 50 eavs ago. WilI aII ils
sIovlconings, il venains al lIe cenlve oJ lIe denogvapIic slage. In lIis veviev I Iave
allenpled lo sIov lIe slage lIal lIe lvansilion Ias veacIed, and lIe divevse appvoacIes
lo causalion socio-econonic, econonic, inslilulionaI, cuIluvaI, idealionaI, elc. Inlev-
81
Szvelev, iIid. p. 686.
82
F. Benen, 'SociaI science and popuIalion poIic', FopuIalion and BeveIopnenl Beviev, 14 |1988),
p. 455.
83
Szvelev, Ioc. cil. p. 689.
84
iIid. p. 691.
85 iIid., p. 692.
386 BUBLEY KIBK
eslingI, none oJ lIese neel lIe denand Jov speciJicil in vegavd lo lIe lining and speed
oJ lIe lvansilion, in spile oJ lIe Jacl lIal lIis vas a connon cvilicisn oJ lIe cIassic
JovnuIalion oJ lIe lIeov.
No lvo counlvies Iave JoIIoved idenlicaI palIs lo lvansilion, Iecause lIeve ave so
nan possiIIe conIinalions oJ nupliaIil, JevliIil, novlaIil, and nigvalion al eacI
slage oJ lIe lvansilion. Hovevev, lIis divevsil is nol ivveconciIaIIe vilI lIe univevsaIil
oJ lIe lvansilion. As Noleslein said nove lIan 40 eavs ago 'il is inpossiIIe lo Ie pvecise
aIoul lIe vavious causaI Jaclovs' IeIind lIe JevliIil lvansilion'.86 TIe Ielevogeneil oJ
expIanalov JvanevovIs in lIe nalionaI nonogvapIs oJ lIe Fvincelon Euvopean
FevliIil Fvojecl is inpvessive. Bul, as poinled oul in lIe concIusion oJ lIis slud, lIe
diJJevences ave nol so gveal. TIe na acceIevale ov deIa lIe lvansilion, Iul lIe
lvansilion ilseIJ is inescapaIIe.
BenogvapIevs and olIevs in seavcI oJ causaIil ave deaIing vilI a vev conpIex and
IigII inlevveIaled slvucluve oJ causalion lIal al lines seens neIuIous. FevIaps, as
CIesnais sas, IiIe so nan aveas oJ Iunan IeIaviouv, novlaIil and JevliIil cannol
Ie vesoIved inlo an equalion vilI a Jev quanliJiaIIe pavanelevs.87 Concepls sucI as
individuaIisn, Jveedon, and seIJ JuIJiInenl ave diJJicuIl lo quanliJ neaningJuII. Il is
lvue lIal a Jev aulIovs, IiIe LeslIaegIe, Iave nade inpvessive eJJovls in lIis JieId.
Il is lenpling lo suggesl lIal il vas lIe decIine oJ novlaIil vIicI Ied lo lIe
disequiIiIviun lIal lviggeved nol onI lIe JevliIil lvansilion, Iul nove lIan anlIing
eIse veduced lIe sIacIIes oJ JalaIisn vIicI Ia IeIind secuIavizalion, lIe vise oJ lIe
nodevn econon, and even lIe InovIedge expIosion.
FevIaps nosl pvonising Jov lvansilion lIeov is an equiIiIviun ov Ioneoslalic
JvanevovI. BenogvapIevs and olIevs Iave loo oJlen Iiniled lIeiv anaIsis oJ lIe ovigins
and exlenl oJ conscious conlvoI on navilaI JevliIil. TIeve ave nan olIev possiIIe sociaI
adaplalions lo popuIalion size, pavlicuIavI vuIes vIicI govevn lIe exlenl and lining oJ
navviage, sexuaI aIslinence, IenglI oJ Iveasl-Jeeding, vuIes veIaling lo lIe venavviage oJ
vidovs, nigvalion, and inJanlicide |eilIev divecl, ov I negIecl). Hovevev, as
HivscInann Ias said 'conscious pallevns oJ JevliIil conlvoI ave an inpovlanl pavl oJ
lIe pvocess, Iul lIe lIeovelicaI JvanevovI oJ lvansilion sIouId Ie IuiIl on a Ivoadev
Iase.88
In a sopIislicaled slud Lee Ias discussed lIe evidence Jov lIe exislence oJ
Ioneoslasis in IislovicaI popuIalions lIe neavI slalionav popuIalions oJ Iunling and
galIeving peopIes, lIe vapid gvovlI oJ Jvonliev popuIalions, vecovev Jvon denogvapIic
cvises, popuIalion gvovlI JoIIoving econonic pvogvess, lIe covveIalion Ielveen JevliIil
and lIe size oJ IandIoIdings, and especiaII lIe Iong-levn svings in Euvopean IislovicaI
popuIalions. Accovding lo Lee, denogvapIic Ioneoslasis Ias cIanged since lIe
nineleenlI cenluv. TIe inJIuence oJ vIal Ie descviIes as 'popuIalion densil' Ias Ieen
gvealI veaIened. TIe posilive veIalion vilI JevliIil no Iongev exisls.89
In lIe pevspeclive oJ veaII Iong-levn svings in lIe pasl, pevIaps Iis viev oJ lIe
pvesenl cenluv na Ie sIovl-sigIled. He couId JoIIov Iis ovn advice and IooI al veaII
Iong-levn svings. AJlev aII, lIe denogvapIic lvansilion Ias el lo pIa ilseIJ oul.
AppIicalion oJ lIe Ioneoslasis pvincipIe couId Iead lo a Iellev undevslanding oJ vIal
posl-lvansilion IeveIs oJ JevliIil ave IiIeI lo Ie. I venluve lo guess lIal lIe pvesenl IeveI
oJ JevliIil in Euvope, IeIov and in sone cases veII IeIov vepIacenenl IeveI, is an ovev-
covveclion lIal viII Ie nodiJied. As cIiIdven Iecone scavcev lIeiv vaIue vises, IolI
86
Loc. cil. in Jn. 11.
87
Op.
cil. in Jn. 68. p. 409.
88
Op.
cil. in Jn. 32, p. 227.
89
B. B. Lee, 'FopuIalion dnanics
oJ Iunans and olIev aninaIs'.
BenogvapI,
24
|1987), pp.
443-465.
BEMOOBAFHIC TBANSITION THEOBY 387
econonicaII and pscIoIogicaII, TIeve is aIvead nounling concevn aIoul lIe ageing
oJ lIe popuIalion vIicI is a vesuIl oJ Iov IivlI vales. Il can Ie expecled lIal puIIic
alliludes and govevnnenlaI aclions viII give expvession lo lIis viev in pvonalaIisl
neasuves. To ne il is suvpvising lIal so IillIe Ias Ieen puIIisIed on lIis lopic in Weslevn
Euvope, excepl in Fvance.
In Weslevn aveas oJ Iov JevliIil ve ave noving inlo a posl-lvansilion eva, vIeve lIe
oId guideIines ave no Iongev appvopviale, an eva in vIicI nucI nove allenlion viII Iave
lo Ie given lo vaising JevliIil, valIev lIan lo Iovev il.
Il is lIus quile possiIIe lIal, as nan oJ lIe Joundevs pvedicled, lIe vovId's popuIalion
viII appvoacI a nev equiIiIviun oJ IivlIs and dealIs. Tvue, in lIe vovId as a vIoIe lIis
cannol Ie expecled lo Iappen Jov nan eavs as lIe lvansilion vuns ils couvse in aII pavls
oJ lIe vovId. WIal Iappens aJlev lIe lvansilion is lIe nosl exciling pvoIIen in nodevn
denogvapI, Jov vIicI lvansilion lIeov can pvovide sone guidance Iul Jev ansvevs,
as il is lied lo a pavlicuIav epocI oJ Iislov.