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Original Title: EC5203 Assignment - Final

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EC5203 Assignment - Final

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents.................................................................................................................2

Opening Case.......................................................................................................................3

Strong Predictor Variables of Gross Box Office Takings ...............................................4

Other Potentially Relevant Variables...............................................................................5

Results..............................................................................................................................5

Developed Mathematical Model

..........................................................................................................................................7

Strength of the Model......................................................................................................7

The Need for Multiple Regression...................................................................................8

Case Study 2........................................................................................................................9

1.Multiple Regression Model: Admissions..........................................................................9

Introduction....................................................................................................................10

Results............................................................................................................................10

Coefficient of Multiple Determination: r2 and Adjusted r2...........................................12

Linear Equation for Multiple Regression......................................................................12

Significance of Dependent Variables to the Multiple Linear Regression......................13

Conclusion: Implications of Analysis............................................................................14

2. Other Relevant Variables...............................................................................................15

3. Multiple Regression Model: Movies Seen.....................................................................16

Introduction....................................................................................................................17

Results

........................................................................................................................................17

Coefficient of Multiple Determination: r2 and Adjusted r2...........................................19

Linear Equation for Multiple Regression......................................................................19

Significance of Dependent Variables to the Multiple Linear Regression......................20

Conclusion: Marketing Implications of Analysis..........................................................21

2

Opening Case

Australia, and relates to the gross box office takings of the yearly top movies in

Australia from 1986 to 2004. There is also information relating to total cinema

attendance in these years, the total number of screens (the most popular films

are often shown in two or more screens simultaneously in some of the larger

multi-screen cinemas) and total number of films shown in the year (this could act

as a measure of competition for the leading movies).

3

1. Dependent and Independent Variables

Several variables are presented that may be related to the yearly gross box

office takings of the top Australian film. Which variables are stronger predictors

of gross box office takings? Might other variables not mentioned here be related

to gross box office takings?

Screenings, there are several assumptions that can be made. First, it is evident

that the variable “Year” is a label for each year, and is most likely not particularly

useful for making future predictions regarding gross box office takings. Secondly,

the title of the movie shown in the Number 1 film column in this table can also be

assumed to be irrelevant for future predictions involving gross box office takings.

With these two columns excluded for statistical purposes, the remaining variables

that will be looked at for this part will be “Number of Admissions (millions),”

“Number of Films Screened,” “Number of Screens,” and “Box Office ($ million).”

The dependent variable in this section is “Box Office (millions),” since this

is the variable around which relationships are being questioned. This deems

“Number of Admissions,” “Number of Films Screened,” and “Number of Screens”

as dependent variables for this case.

takings for a given year can be found when performing a multiple linear

regression. For this assignment, an Excel add-in tool for the multiple linear

regression calculations called PHStat has been used. The PHStat tool greatly

reduces the time and effort required to perform a multiple linear regression

analysis, along with providing ANOVA and residual error calculations. The output

for the multiple linear regression modeling is given below in the section titled

“Mathematical Model to Predict Gross Box Office Takings.”

below will show how weak the relationship is between the dependent and

independent variables, it should be noted that the strongest relationship is that

between “Number of Admissions” and “Box Office (millions).” This seems to

make sense, since the more viewers are admitted to a movie, the more payment

i.e. gross box office takings the cinemas will receive.

4

Other Potentially Relevant Variables

“Number of Films Screened,” and “Number of Screens,” there could be a number

of other unmentioned variables that might affect the Gross Box Office Takings.

Some of these variables are included in Part 2 of this assignment, such as:

o “Theatres”

o “Top Price of Cinema Tickets”

o “Capacity”

o “Age”

o “No. of Emailed Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year”

o “Income (‘000s)”

Other perhaps important variables that have been omitted from the data,

which are also mentioned in Part 2 of the assignment, may be:

o Screening Times During the Year

o Location of Cinema

o Gender, Nationality, Religion or Political View

o Genre of the Film (Horror/Comedy/etc)

o Amount ($) Spent on Advertising for the Film

Takings

using the data given? If so, how strong is the model? With three independent

variables, will we need to develop three different simple regression models and

compare their results?

Results

Regression Analysis

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.644693511

R Square 0.415629723

Adjusted R Square 0.298755668

Standard Error 8.884734142

Observations 19

5

ANOVA

Significance

df SS MS F F

Regression 3.00000 842.16776 280.72259 3.55622 0.04006

Residual 15.00000 1184.07751 78.93850

Total 18.00000 2026.24527

Standard Upper

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95%

Intercept -5.71881 25.95778 -0.22031 0.82860 -61.04651 49.60889

Number of

Admissions

(millions) -0.10880 0.36397 -0.29894 0.76909 -0.88459 0.66698

Number of films

screened 0.07348 0.10052 0.73095 0.47608 -0.14078 0.28773

Number of

Screens 0.01799 0.01692 1.06357 0.30435 -0.01807 0.05405

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

1 20.14328 20.65672

2 21.56637 -10.16637

3 23.67032 1.22968

4 25.31063 -9.52063

5 23.43136 2.66864

6 22.73710 -3.51710

7 22.27410 -3.54410

8 24.38503 7.35497

9 23.88529 0.76471

10 25.72425 -7.79425

11 29.39766 -0.10766

12 32.54003 -9.84003

13 33.99416 13.33584

14 34.89610 3.82390

15 36.40136 -5.68136

16 35.59706 -3.54706

17 36.85815 -3.04815

18 38.51647 -1.37647

19 42.04129 8.30871

6

Developed Mathematical Model

mathematical model to predict gross box office takings using the data table

above. The results of a multiple linear regression using PHStat with the

mentioned dependent and independent variables are given below under the

heading “Results.”

From the given results (above under the heading Results), we can form a

multiple linear regression model based on the coefficients from the results, which

can be used to create a mathematical formula that could predict potential future

values for gross box office takings.

where:

b0 = Intercept (i.e. when Y = 0)

X1 = Number of Admissions (millions)

b1 = rate of increase of Box Office ($ million) given Number of Admissions

(millions)

X2 = Number of Films Screened

b2 = rate of increase of Box Office ($ million) given Number of Films

Screened

X3 = Number of Screens

B3 = rate of increase of Box Office ($ million) given Number of Screens

Therefore, the final equation for predicting gross box office takings is:

0.0735 (Number of Films Screened) + 0.01799(Number of Screens)

41.56% of the variation in the dependent variable “Box Office ($ million)” can be

explained by the independent variables used, “Number of Admissions,” “Number

of Films Screened,” and “Number of Screens.” This is a weak linear relationship

7

that suggests there may not be such a strong relationship between the

dependent and independent variables.

“Box Office ($ million)” can be explained by all the aforementioned dependent

variables, while also taking into account the sample size and number of

independent variables. This further substantiates the notion that there is a very

weak linear relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

models to compare their results, since multiple linear regression has done the job

quite adequately for the three independent variables. In fact, it is preferable to

perform multiple linear regression analysis instead of performing several

instances of single linear regression analysis due to the fact that multiple

regression takes into account relationships between independent variables and

the dependent variable at the same time, whereas three separate single linear

regression models would not take into account the effect that each relationship

would have on the other when calculating relationships with the dependent and

independent variables.

8

Case Study 2

1. Multiple Regression Model: Admissions

millions) to the movies in Australia over the years 1984 to 2004. It also

contains the yearly totals of the numbers of screens, theatres and films

screened, as well as the top price paid for a cinema ticket. Using these data,

develop a multiple regression model to study how well the number of annual

cinema admissions can be explained by the other variables. Which variables

seem to be more promising predictors? What implications for film distributor

executives might be evident from this analysis?

9

Introduction

For this part of the assignment, an Excel add-in tool for the multiple linear

regression calculations called PHStat was used. This tool greatly reduces the

time and effort required to perform a multiple linear regression analysis. The

output for the multiple linear regression modeling is shown below.

that the regression modeling is accurate. In doing so, the following assumptions

will be made:

The dependant variable in this analysis is “No. of admissions (millions).”

The independent variables in this analysis are “Year,” “No. of Screens,”

“Theatres,” “No. of Films Screened,” “Top Price of Cinema Tickets,” and

“Capacity (000 seats).”

Residuals in the model are normally distributed, have constant variance,

and are independent.

We will use a confidence level for regression coefficients of 95%, such that

α = 0.05.

Results

The results for the multiple linear regression analysis are given below:

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.987125975

R Square 0.974417691

Adjusted R Square 0.965890255

Standard Error 4.36021864

Observations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 5 10862.0855 2172.417099 114.2685399 2.1558E-11

Residual 15 285.1725988 19.01150659

Total 20 11147.2581

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95%

Intercept 55.1391 32.2236 1.7111 0.1076 -13.5439 123.8222

No of screens 0.1199 0.0226 5.3155 0.0001 0.0718 0.1680

Theatres 0.0725 0.0349 2.0750 0.0556 -0.0020 0.1469

No of films

screened 0.0474 0.0491 0.9650 0.3498 -0.0573 0.1522

Top price of

cinema ticket ($) -2.5388 2.0464 -1.2406 0.2338 -6.9007 1.8230

10

Capacity (000

seats) -0.4447 0.1080 -4.1164 0.0009 -0.6750 -0.2144

1 29.7170 -0.8170

2 31.7007 -2.0007

3 32.9106 2.5894

4 25.0980 5.7020

5 40.6546 -3.2546

6 43.9614 -4.9614

7 46.9636 -3.9636

8 47.4028 -0.5028

9 50.7525 -3.5525

10 56.3712 -0.8712

11 61.3113 6.7887

12 65.7125 4.1875

13 68.3302 5.5698

14 76.1044 -0.1044

15 82.7255 -2.7255

16 88.7593 -0.7593

17 89.2581 -7.0581

18 88.6222 3.8778

19 89.5627 2.9373

20 90.2856 -0.4856

21 92.0960 -0.5960

t Statistic 2.13145

Predicted Y (YHat) 55.13912

Interval Half Width 68.68304

Confidence Interval Lower Limit -13.5439

Confidence Interval Upper Limit 123.8222

Interval Half Width 69.30896

Prediction Interval Lower Limit -14.1698

Prediction Interval Upper Limit 124.4481

The given Regression Analysis above presents several key statistics that

are useful for further analysis. These include regression statistics such as r2,

ANOVA (analysis of variance) statistics, and confidence interval estimates.

These are discussed below in more detail.

11

Coefficient of Multiple Determination: r2 and Adjusted r2

97.44% of the variation in the dependent variable “Number of Admissions” can be

explained by the independent variables used, “No. of Screens,” “Theatres,” “No.

of Films Screened,” “Top Price of Cinema Tickets,” and “Capacity (000 seats).”

of “Number of Admissions” can be explained by all the aforementioned

dependent variables, while also taking into account the sample size and number

of independent variables.

From the given linear regression analysis above, we can form the multiple

regression equation for the Number of Admissions in the audience demand for

cinema films:

where:

b0 = Intercept (i.e. when Y = 0)

X1 = Number of Screens

b1 = rate of increase of Number of Admissions given No. of Screens

X2 = Theatres

b2 = rate of incrase of Number of Admissions given Theatres

X3 = Number of Films Screened

B3 = rate of increase of Number of Admissions given Number of

Films Screened

X4 = Top Price for Cinema Tickets

b4 = rate of increase of Number of Admissions given Top Price for

Cinema Tickets

X5 = Capacity (‘000s)

b5 = rate of increase of Number of Admissions given Capacity.

12

Number of admissions (millions) = 5.1391 + 0.1199(Number of Screens) +

0.0725 (Theatres) + 0.0474(Number of Films Screened) – 2.5388(Top Price for

Cinema Tickets ($)) – 0.4447(Capacity (000s))

increases by the following amount with an increment of 1 in each of the

dependent variables:

o 80,000 admissions for each unit increase in “Theatres.”

o 25,500 admissions for each unit increase in “No. of Films Screened.”

o - 7,334,100 admissions for unit increase in “Top Price of Cinema Tickets.”

o - 283 admissions for each unit increase in “Capacity.”

Regression

between the dependent variables considered with Y. In order to test for

significance, the null hypothesis shall be formed, which states that there is no

relationship among independent variables in determining the dependent variable,

“Number of Admissions.” In other words:

H1: at least one b value above ≠ 0 (at least one independent variable

affects Ŷ)

2.5706. This shows that the confidence interval is (-2.5706, 2.5706), and

therefore any t-test statistic values for the dependent variables falling outside of

this region will be rejected, proving that the dependent variable affects Ŷ. Each t-

value for each dependent variable can then be examined to see if they affect Ŷ

using this approach:

13

Dependent Variable t-test Statistic Within (-2.5706, Reject H0?

2.5706)?

X1: No. of Screens 5.3155 No Yes

X2: Theatres 2.0750 Yes No

X3: No. of Films Screened 0.9650 Yes No

X4: Top Price of Cinema Yes No

Tickets -1.2406

X5: Capacity (000 seats) -4.1164 No Yes

From the above results, it can be said that one can be 95% confident that

the independent variables “No. of Screens” and “Capacity” affect the dependent

variable “Number of Admissions.” The other independent variables, “Theatres,”

“No. of Films Screened,” and “Top Price of Cinema Tickets” cannot be proven as

such to affect the dependent variable.

The evident implications for film distributor executives that arise from this

analysis are the “Number of Screens” and “Capacity” of theatres; these are

significant variables when the intention of increasing the number of admissions

(and therefore profit) is involved. If executives wish to increase the number of

admissions in their theatres and increase profits, then they may first wish to

increase the number of screens and capacity of their theatres, based on the

results provided.

It should be noted, however, that even though it could not be proven with

certainty that an increase in “Theatres” and “No. of Films Screened” gave a

definite rise in admissions, it could be seen that there is a positive relationship on

average between these variables and the number of admissions. It would be of

interest to film distributor executives to also take into account this finding.

Increasing the number of theatres and number of films being screened might also

have a positive effect on admissions, albeit on a smaller scale. Of course, the

14

decision of which dependent variable to leverage would no doubt depend on

business factors such as the company’s budget, among other things.

Think about some other variables, not included above, that may also be

important predictors in determining the annual numbers of movie-goers.

The given variables in the linear regression analysis may not be the most

exhaustive list of relevant variables in the equation. Other variables that may

have been important predictors in determining the annual numbers of movie-

goers include the following:

o Screening Times During the Day may be relevant because the audience may

have a particular time during the day that viewing movies is most favourable

i.e. at night, rather than in the afternoons when many people may be working.

o Screening Times During the Year is also a potentially strong indicator in this

analysis, due the fact that people may be unable to attend, or unwilling to

attend, cinemas during certain parts of the year.

viewers to attend. The audience members would not doubt be more willing to

travel less distance to attend a movie rather than spend a long time travelling

to the cinema to watch a particular movie.

such as Gender, Nationality, Religion or Political View of the audience may

also be prevalent factors in distinguishing movie-going trends. Someone who

is devoutly religious, for example, may be unwilling to watch movies

altogether. Similarly, women may be less willing to watch movies than men,

as another example.

factor in the search for more relationships among variables. Horror flicks, for

example, may be more popular than say Romance or Western movies.

o Lastly, the Amount ($) Spent on Advertising for the Film may play a big part in

the reason for why admissions may increase. If one film is given a lot of

advertising, then it would be expected that it’s presence would reach more

people, and more people would therefore know about it and/or attend the

cinema to view it.

15

3. Multiple Regression Model: Movies Seen

Some film distributors offer discount cinema tickets via email. Suppose that a

random sample of 25 movie-goers is undertaken, and suppose that the

number of movies the person has seen in the last year, their age and income,

and the number of discount cinema tickets they have received via email in the

last year, is recorded. Use the data to develop a multiple regression model to

predict the number of times an individual goes to the movies per year from

their age, income and number of discount cinema tickets received. Which

particular independent variables seem to have more promise in predicting the

number of times a person goes to the movies? What marketing implications

might be evident from this analysis?

16

Introduction

predictions for this model, it must be confirmed that the regression modeling is

accurate. In doing so, the following assumptions will be made:

Last Year.”

The independent variables in this analysis are “Age,” “No. of Emailed

Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year,” and “Income (‘000s).”

Residuals in the model are normally distributed, have constant variance,

and are independent.

We will use a confidence level for regression coefficients of 95%, such that

α = 0.05.

Results

The results for the multiple linear regression analysis are given below:

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.598474304

R Square 0.358171492

Adjusted R Square 0.266481705

Standard Error 3.822203471

Observations 25

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 3.0000 171.2060 57.0687 3.9063 0.0231

Residual 21.0000 306.7940 14.6092

Total 24.0000 478.0000

nts Error t Stat value 95% 95%

1.529 0.141

Intercept 5.4654 3.5728 7 0 -1.9646 12.8954

-0.534 0.598

Age -0.0521 0.0974 9 4 -0.2545 0.1504

No of discount tickets 3.230 0.004

received 1.1775 0.3645 5 0 0.4195 1.9355

0.645 0.525

Income ($000) 0.0383 0.0593 8 4 -0.0851 0.1617

17

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observatio

n Predicted No of movies seen Residuals

1 6.1075 -2.1075

2 11.1321 0.8679

3 9.9192 0.0808

4 10.3155 -2.3155

5 14.3334 -3.3334

6 12.3506 -0.3506

7 7.5439 0.4561

8 10.3509 -4.3509

9 12.9997 3.0003

10 6.2117 3.7883

11 10.8029 7.1971

12 8.7083 3.2917

13 9.4561 -8.4561

14 7.2517 4.7483

15 12.3359 2.6641

16 5.8659 -2.8659

17 13.5710 -3.5710

18 10.0921 -2.0921

19 11.3404 3.6596

20 16.9863 2.0137

21 8.9333 3.0667

22 12.3617 1.6383

23 10.1295 -0.1295

24 9.5435 -3.5435

25 11.3570 -3.3570

t Statistic 2.079614

Predicted Y (YHat) 5.46538

Interval Half Width 7.43

Confidence Interval Lower Limit -1.96462

Confidence Interval Upper Limit 12.89538

Interval Half Width 10.88057

Prediction Interval Lower Limit -5.41519

Prediction Interval Upper Limit 16.34595

several key statistics that are useful for further analysis. These include

regression statistics such as r2, ANOVA (analysis of variance) statistics, and

confidence interval estimates. These are discussed below in more detail.

18

Coefficient of Multiple Determination: r2 and Adjusted r2

35.82% of the variation in the dependent variable “No. of Movies Seen at Cinema

Last Year” can be explained by the independent variables used, “Age,” “No. of

Emailed Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year,” and “Income (‘000s).”

“No. of Movies Seen at Cinema Last Year” can be explained by all the

aforementioned dependent variables, while also taking into account the sample

size and number of independent variables.

From the given linear regression analysis above, we can form the multiple

regression equation for the Number of Admissions in the audience demand for

cinema films:

where:

b0 = Intercept (i.e. when Y = 0)

X1 = Age

b1 = rate of increase of No. of Movies Seen at Cinema Last Year given

Age

X2 = No. of Emailed Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year

b2 = rate of increase of No. of Movies Seen at Cinema Last Year given No.

of Emailed Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year

X3 = Income (‘000s)

b3 = rate of increase of No. of Movies Seen at Cinema Last Year given

Income (‘000s)

Emailed Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year) + 0.0383(Income (‘000s))

19

The equation above shows by how much the Number of Movies Seen Last

Year increases by the following amount with an increment of 1 in each of the

dependent variables:

o - 0.0521 movies seen last year for each unit increase in “Age”

o 1.1775 movies seen last year for each unit increase in “No. of Emailed

Discount Cinema Tickets Received Last Year.”

o 0.0383 movies seen last year for each unit increase in “Income (‘000s).”

Regression

between the dependent variables considered with Ŷ. In order to test for

significance, the null hypothesis shall be formed, which states that there is no

relationship among independent variables in determining the dependent variable,

“Number of Movies Seen Last Year.” In other words:

H1: at least one b value above ≠ 0 (at least one independent variable

affects Ŷ)

3.1824. This shows that the confidence interval is (-3.1824, 3.1824), and

therefore any t-test statistic values for the dependent variables falling outside of

this region will be rejected, proving that the dependent variable affects Ŷ. Each t-

value for each dependent variable can then be examined to see if they affect Ŷ

using this approach:

20

Dependent Variable t-test Statistic Within Reject H0?

(-3.1824, 3.1824)?

X1: Age -0.5349 Yes No

X2: No. of Emailed Discount No Yes

Cinema Tickets Received Last

Year 3.2305

X3: Income (‘000s) 0.6458 Yes No

From the above results, it can be said that there is 95% confidence that

the independent variable “No. of Emailed Discount Cinema Tickets Received

Last Year” affects the dependent variable “Number of Movies Seen Last Year.”

The other independent variables, “Age” and “Income (‘000s),” can not be proven

as such to affect the dependent variables.

analysis is that the number of emailed discount cinema tickets received last year

had a direct impact on the number of movies a person saw last year. If

marketers wish to increase the number of movies that people see in future (and

therefore increase profits for the companies they work for), then it would be in

their best interests to either continue emailing discount cinema tickets to

customers, or perhaps even increase the amount of such emailed tickets, based

on the results provided.

While less obvious to prove given the results of the t-Test, it should also

be taken into account the other factors of the given multiple linear equation -

“Age” and “Income.” It could be assumed that the older one gets (i.e. the higher

the “Age” value), the lower the value of movies being seen in a year becomes.

Conversely, the more a person is paid (i.e. the higher the “Income (‘000s)” value),

the higher the value of movies being seen may become, based on our results.

Both of these assumptions, while not proven statistically, certainly make sense.

Marketing representatives could use this knowledge to target both younger and

wealthier populations to try and increase the number of movies being seen in any

subsequent year as an initiative to boost company profits.

21

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