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by Frederick T. Elder

IRC Research and Technology Forum February 9, 2007

(c) Frederick T. Elder

After a known relief, and within a reasonable time, spring-loaded relief valves shall be replaced by new or remanufactured certified valves. If re-seating is not complete, replacement shall be immediate. When a component reliability program is in place to verify relief valve functionality and longevity by history, testing, disassembly and inspection, and periodic statistical review of these activities, relief valves may be replaced at any interval justified by the findings of such a program. In the absence of such a program, each relief valve shall be replaced at the frequency recommended by the relief valve manufacturer. In the absence of both a component reliability program and manufacturers recommendations, relief valves shall be replaced every five years if not indicated earlier at annual inspection.

Why Test?

Properly assess health of NH3 refrigeration safety system OSHA has required it in prior settlement agreements It may save $$$ It may answer a PHA question

Maintenance Guidance

http://www.valve-world.net/srv/ShowPage.aspx?pageID=640

Outline

Background and Advantages of Weibull Analysis Failure Criteria Generating Weibull Plot Weibayes Analysis Examples

Background

Invented by Waloddi Weibull in 1937 he used it for fatigue life estimation Dr. Robert Abernethy the modern Weibull Analysis expert Weibull Analysis first used extensively in aerospace applications

Waloddi Weibull 1887-1979

Samples may be expensive Reduces time/cost of testing May not have many recorded failures

Example 250 psig valve Opens at pressures < 242.5 psig failure Opens at pressures > 262.5 psig -- failure

Reduce the set pressure of relief valves when possible then expand failure definition Do not consider low pressure opening a failure for those valves where that does not create a hazard

Failure criteria Number of failures and times Number of suspensions and times

Predicted failure rate Failure mechanism

Plotting Data

Plot scales

X axis: Age parameter (Units of Hours in Figure) Y axis: Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Weibayes Analysis

Finding the MTTF of a unit after initial testing lead to no failures Redesigned component, several units tested without failure, is testing sufficient? Smaller sample sizes needed with Weibayes since previous failure history is known

Weibayes Analysis

ti = i=1 r

N

1/

Can be used when no failures Where: have occurred Need to have back ground failure info Company Weibull library Other Weibull libraries

N = total number of suspensions and failures r = number of failed units = assumed slope t = time or cycles

Weibayes Analysis

http://www.barringer1.com/ wdbase.htm

Weibayes can be used to determine replacement interval time Can input data into Weibull program or calculate by hand using equation

Weibayes Analysis

Determine New Replacement Interval for Test with Zero Failures

1. 2. 3.

4.

Gather suspension data Find (as described in next slides) Find k1-value from One-Failure Plan table for your assumed and number of samples being tested Replacement Interval =(k1)

Hand Calculation

Use:

= 2 Ti 2 ( C ; 2r + 2 )

1

for r 0

: look up this value from Chi-squared table for C confidence and 2r+2 degrees of freedom

{ ( C; 2 f + 2 )}

2

WinSMITH Calculation

Enter number of units, all as suspensions Select Weibayes method Choose specific confidence, 63.2% confidence equivalent to assuming 1 failure is imminent Find from Weibayes plot

Parameters: 30 relief valves used for 5 years, 0 failures, want to increase Replacement Interval Question: How many years can the valves be used and have at most one failure with a 90% confidence?

30 suspensions, 5 year time Weibayes method, =1, 90% Confidence

=65.14

Read N=30, K1=0.132 Complete table and equation to derive K1-values included in Appendix B

Replacement Interval: 65.14(0.132)= 8.6 years So with a 90% confidence, you can replace the relief valves every 8.6 years and have at most one failure during that period Reasonable approach: 8.6 years minus 5 years = 3.6 years/2=1.8 years, so add 1.8 years to 5 year zero failure plan to have reasonable probability of no failures

Weibayes Analysis

Determine New Replacement Interval for One or More Failures During Testing

Weibayes Analysis

Determine New Replacement Interval for One or More Failures During Testing

1. Gather failure and suspension 2. 3.

4.

data Find (as described in next slides) Find k0-value from ZeroFailure Plan table for your assumed and number of samples being tested Replacement Interval =(k0)

Hand Calculation

1/

c =

{ ( C ; 2 f + 2 )}

2

to get a specific confidence, where f=# of failures { ( C ; 2 f + 2 )} : look up this value from Chi-squared table for C confidence and 2f+2 degrees of freedom

2

Hand Calculation

WinSMITH Calculation

Enter number of failures, all with the assumed time of half the usage time Enter number of suspensions Choose the specific confidence Find from the Weibayes plot

Parameters: 30 relief valves used for 5 years, 2 failures, dont know when failures occurred Question: How many years can the valves be used and have zero failures with a 90% confidence?

28 suspensions, 5 year time 2 failures, assumed half of 5 years, or 2.5 years Weibayes method, =1, 90% Confidence

= 27.26

Read N=30, K0=0.077 Complete table and equation to derive K0-values included in Appendix B

So with a 90% confidence, you can replace the relief valves every 2.1 years and have no failures during the interval

Remember

MI of pipes and vessels is also of high priority Relief Valves not to be placed back in service after testing Need judgment to extend the replacement/test interval Failed relief valve may never be needed

The New Weibull Handbook and the WinSMITH software packages can be purchased at:

http://www.weibullnews.com/contents.h tm#Prices

Sources

Engineering Safety Relief Systems, March 2006. by Reindl, D.T, Jekel, T.B., Available from the Industrial Refrigeration Consortium The New Weibull Handbook, Fourth Edition, 2000, by Robert Abernethy The New Weibull Handbook, Fifth Edition, 2006, by Robert Abernethy Fitness for Service of Pressure Relieving Systems, by W. E. Short II, presented at The 2003 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference Reliability Testing of Relief Valves, by Robert E. Gross, presented at The 2004 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference

Sources

Plant Guidelines for Technical Management of Chemical Process Safety, pp 169-172, by Center for Chemical Process Safety, 1992 Armor Swift Eckrich OSHA settlement agreement of October 9, 1997 IBP OSHA settlement agreement of 2001 Code Requirements for Safety Relief Systems, Todd Jekel, 2005 Research and Technology Forum, January 20, 2005

Sources

Center for Chemical Process Safety (1998). Guidelines for Pressure Relief and Effluent Handling Systems. (pp. 104-107). Center for Chemical Process Safety/AIChE. Online version available at: http://www.knovel.com/knovel2/ Toc.jsp?BookID=831&VerticalID=0 Center for Chemical Process Safety (1989). Process Equipment Reliability Data with Data Tables. P 212

Failure Distribution Failure Forecasts and Predictions Maintenance Planning Effectiveness of a Redesign

http://www.barringer1.com/wins.htm

Plot Data Calculate Eta, Beta, and PVE numbers Run a distribution analysis Generate a results report

Plotting Data

Standard Life Data: exact age of parts known Interval Data: Age of parts not exactly know, so parts are grouped

Plotting Data

Failures

Establish failure mode Every part displaying this mode constitutes a failure

Suspensions

Parts that failed via a different mode Parts that have not yet failed

Early Suspension: Age below age of first failure Late Suspension: Age above age of last failure

Plot scales

Plotting Data

X axis: Age parameter (Units of Hours in Figure) Y axis: Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Plotting Data

Plotting Data

Two-parameter most widely used Weibull distribution CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function):

F(t) = 1

(t / ) e

F(t) = fraction failing up-to-time t t= failure time = characteristic life e = 2.718281, the base for natural logarithms = slope parameter

Arrange failures and suspensions in time ascending order Set up the following table:

Fill in Rank and Reverse Rank, and in Time column, include whether it was a Suspension or Failure If two data points have the same time to failure, they are both presented in the column, and they will both get median rank values

Use Benards Median Rank formula to get new Median Rank (since adjusted rank is not an integer):

Benards M.R.=(i-0.3) X 100 / (N+0.4)

Fill out previous table, and plot: Draw a best fit line through the points, make sure it is 1:1 Weibull paper

Benards M. R. on the y-axis Time on x-axis

Parameters: You are given the following data, 8 total parts, 5 failures at 49,82,96,30, and 90 hours and, 3 suspensions at 45,10, and 100 hours Question: At how many hours can you expect approximately 50% of the parts to fail?

Plot the points on 1:1 Weibull Paper Draw a best fit line through the points and draw a line across from the 50% mark and down to the time axis

Eta, Beta, PVE, and N/S

10% is acceptable, 50% is average

Parameter most effected by suspensions

Beta < 1.0 indicates infant mortality Beta = 1.0 indicates random failures that are independent of age Beta > 1.0 indicates wear out failures

Use PVE number to evaluate fit of line Use Beta to evaluate failure method Look for Bad Weibull characteristics

Bad Weibull

Origin not at t=0, must use three-parameter Weibull

Look at engineering aspects of data recording, test records, calibrations, etc.

More than one failure mode represented by data, try to separate data

Bad Weibull

Batch problem

Look to different distributions, Log normal, Three-parameter Weibull

Failure Forecasting

Expected number of failures that may occur in a specific period of time Predicts:

Future failures when failed units are replaced Future failures when failed units are not replaced

Failure Forecasting

Age of components in service Usage rate Introduction rate of new units Failed parts replacement info

Hand Calculation

Assume at Least One Failure is Imminent: Use Weibayes equation to find Assume 1 failure (r=1) since a failure is imminent (yields 63% confidence) Use the following table to achieve different confidences:

K=[(-1/N)*ln(0.1)](1/)

Use 0.10 column for 90% Lower Bound, 0.05 for 95% Lower Bound, etc.

(1-Confidence)=(e-(k))N+N(e-(k))N-1(1- e-(k))

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