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Pressure Relief Valve Pop Test Data Statistical Replacement Interval Calculation

by Frederick T. Elder
IRC Research and Technology Forum February 9, 2007
(c) Frederick T. Elder

When to Replace per IIAR 110


After a known relief, and within a reasonable time, spring-loaded relief valves shall be replaced by new or remanufactured certified valves. If re-seating is not complete, replacement shall be immediate. When a component reliability program is in place to verify relief valve functionality and longevity by history, testing, disassembly and inspection, and periodic statistical review of these activities, relief valves may be replaced at any interval justified by the findings of such a program. In the absence of such a program, each relief valve shall be replaced at the frequency recommended by the relief valve manufacturer. In the absence of both a component reliability program and manufacturers recommendations, relief valves shall be replaced every five years if not indicated earlier at annual inspection.

Why Test?

Properly assess health of NH3 refrigeration safety system OSHA has required it in prior settlement agreements It may save $$$ It may answer a PHA question

Maintenance Guidance
http://www.valve-world.net/srv/ShowPage.aspx?pageID=640

Outline

Background and Advantages of Weibull Analysis Failure Criteria Generating Weibull Plot Weibayes Analysis Examples

Background

Invented by Waloddi Weibull in 1937 he used it for fatigue life estimation Dr. Robert Abernethy the modern Weibull Analysis expert Weibull Analysis first used extensively in aerospace applications
Waloddi Weibull 1887-1979

Advantages of Weibull Analysis


Main advantage: Small sample size


Samples may be expensive Reduces time/cost of testing May not have many recorded failures

Weibull Analysis is displayed by an easy to read graphical plot

Pop Test Failure Criteria

Example 250 psig valve Opens at pressures < 242.5 psig failure Opens at pressures > 262.5 psig -- failure

Alternate Failure Criteria


Reduce the set pressure of relief valves when possible then expand failure definition Do not consider low pressure opening a failure for those valves where that does not create a hazard

Weibull Analysis Plot


Most Weibull Analysis done from plot To Plot, you need:


Failure criteria Number of failures and times Number of suspensions and times

From Plot, you get:


Predicted failure rate Failure mechanism

Plotting Data

Plot scales
X axis: Age parameter (Units of Hours in Figure) Y axis: Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Defines percentage of units that will fail up to an age.

Weibayes Analysis

Weibayes is used when there are no or very few failures:


Finding the MTTF of a unit after initial testing lead to no failures Redesigned component, several units tested without failure, is testing sufficient? Smaller sample sizes needed with Weibayes since previous failure history is known

Weibayes Analysis

Weibayes Analysis equation, uses an assumed

ti = i=1 r
N

1/

Can be used when no failures Where: have occurred Need to have back ground failure info Company Weibull library Other Weibull libraries

N = total number of suspensions and failures r = number of failed units = assumed slope t = time or cycles

Weibayes Analysis

Relief valve failure data shows typical value of 1


http://www.barringer1.com/ wdbase.htm

Weibayes can be used to determine replacement interval time Can input data into Weibull program or calculate by hand using equation

Weibayes Analysis
Determine New Replacement Interval for Test with Zero Failures
1. 2. 3.

4.

Gather suspension data Find (as described in next slides) Find k1-value from One-Failure Plan table for your assumed and number of samples being tested Replacement Interval =(k1)

Weibayes: Finding With No Failures


Hand Calculation

Confidence Limit Equation for Zero Failures:


Use:
= 2 Ti 2 ( C ; 2r + 2 )
1

for r 0

where r=# of failures Ti=Time of each replacement

: look up this value from Chi-squared table for C confidence and 2r+2 degrees of freedom

{ ( C; 2 f + 2 )}
2

Weibayes: Finding With No Failures


WinSMITH Calculation

Can Select Specific Confidence


Enter number of units, all as suspensions Select Weibayes method Choose specific confidence, 63.2% confidence equivalent to assuming 1 failure is imminent Find from Weibayes plot

Weibayes Example: No Failures During Testing


Parameters: 30 relief valves used for 5 years, 0 failures, want to increase Replacement Interval Question: How many years can the valves be used and have at most one failure with a 90% confidence?

Weibayes Example: No Failures During Testing


Data entered in WinSMITH


30 suspensions, 5 year time Weibayes method, =1, 90% Confidence

=65.14

Weibayes Example: No Failures During Testing


Table of K1-values For One-Failure Test Plans, =1

Read N=30, K1=0.132 Complete table and equation to derive K1-values included in Appendix B

Weibayes Example: No Failures During Testing


Replacement Interval: 65.14(0.132)= 8.6 years So with a 90% confidence, you can replace the relief valves every 8.6 years and have at most one failure during that period Reasonable approach: 8.6 years minus 5 years = 3.6 years/2=1.8 years, so add 1.8 years to 5 year zero failure plan to have reasonable probability of no failures

Weibayes Analysis
Determine New Replacement Interval for One or More Failures During Testing

Most Common Typically, there will be failures

Weibayes Analysis
Determine New Replacement Interval for One or More Failures During Testing
1. Gather failure and suspension 2. 3.

4.

data Find (as described in next slides) Find k0-value from ZeroFailure Plan table for your assumed and number of samples being tested Replacement Interval =(k0)

Weibayes: Finding With Failures


Hand Calculation

Use Weibayes equation to find Use: 2 f


1/

c =

{ ( C ; 2 f + 2 )}
2

to get a specific confidence, where f=# of failures { ( C ; 2 f + 2 )} : look up this value from Chi-squared table for C confidence and 2f+2 degrees of freedom
2

Weibayes: Finding With Failures


Hand Calculation

Chi-Squared Table, C: 90% Confidence

Weibayes: Finding With Failures


WinSMITH Calculation

Enter number of failures, all with the assumed time of half the usage time Enter number of suspensions Choose the specific confidence Find from the Weibayes plot

Weibayes Example: One or More Failures During Testing


Parameters: 30 relief valves used for 5 years, 2 failures, dont know when failures occurred Question: How many years can the valves be used and have zero failures with a 90% confidence?

Weibayes Example: One or More Failures During Testing


Data entered in WinSMITH


28 suspensions, 5 year time 2 failures, assumed half of 5 years, or 2.5 years Weibayes method, =1, 90% Confidence

= 27.26

Weibayes Example: One or More Failures During Testing


Table of K0-values For Zero-Failure Test Plans, =1

Read N=30, K0=0.077 Complete table and equation to derive K0-values included in Appendix B

Weibayes Example: One or More Failures During Testing


Replacement Interval: 27.26(0.077)= 2.1 years

So with a 90% confidence, you can replace the relief valves every 2.1 years and have no failures during the interval

Remember

MI of pipes and vessels is also of high priority Relief Valves not to be placed back in service after testing Need judgment to extend the replacement/test interval Failed relief valve may never be needed

Where to Buy Weibull Material


The New Weibull Handbook and the WinSMITH software packages can be purchased at:
http://www.weibullnews.com/contents.h tm#Prices

Sources

Engineering Safety Relief Systems, March 2006. by Reindl, D.T, Jekel, T.B., Available from the Industrial Refrigeration Consortium The New Weibull Handbook, Fourth Edition, 2000, by Robert Abernethy The New Weibull Handbook, Fifth Edition, 2006, by Robert Abernethy Fitness for Service of Pressure Relieving Systems, by W. E. Short II, presented at The 2003 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference Reliability Testing of Relief Valves, by Robert E. Gross, presented at The 2004 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference

Sources

Plant Guidelines for Technical Management of Chemical Process Safety, pp 169-172, by Center for Chemical Process Safety, 1992 Armor Swift Eckrich OSHA settlement agreement of October 9, 1997 IBP OSHA settlement agreement of 2001 Code Requirements for Safety Relief Systems, Todd Jekel, 2005 Research and Technology Forum, January 20, 2005

Sources

Center for Chemical Process Safety (1998). Guidelines for Pressure Relief and Effluent Handling Systems. (pp. 104-107). Center for Chemical Process Safety/AIChE. Online version available at: http://www.knovel.com/knovel2/ Toc.jsp?BookID=831&VerticalID=0 Center for Chemical Process Safety (1989). Process Equipment Reliability Data with Data Tables. P 212

Appendix A: Weibull Analysis Background

Advantages of Weibull Analysis


Weibull Analysis can be used for:


Failure Distribution Failure Forecasts and Predictions Maintenance Planning Effectiveness of a Redesign

Weibull Analysis Software


WinSMITH Weibull from Fulton Findings


http://www.barringer1.com/wins.htm

Created by Wes Fulton and Dr. Bob Abernethey

Weibull Analysis Software


Enter age data, suspensions and failures Software will:


Plot Data Calculate Eta, Beta, and PVE numbers Run a distribution analysis Generate a results report

Plotting Data

Age must be known for data


Standard Life Data: exact age of parts known Interval Data: Age of parts not exactly know, so parts are grouped

Could be from weekly, monthly, etc inspections

Age may be operating time, starts/stops, etc.

Plotting Data

Failures
Establish failure mode Every part displaying this mode constitutes a failure

Suspensions
Parts that failed via a different mode Parts that have not yet failed

Early Suspension: Age below age of first failure Late Suspension: Age above age of last failure

Plot scales

Plotting Data

X axis: Age parameter (Units of Hours in Figure) Y axis: Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Defines proportion of units that will fail up to an age as a percentage

Plotting Data

WinSMITH Data Plot

Plotting Data

Two-parameter most widely used Weibull distribution CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function):

F(t) = 1

(t / ) e

F(t) = fraction failing up-to-time t t= failure time = characteristic life e = 2.718281, the base for natural logarithms = slope parameter

Plotting Data on Weibull Paper


Arrange failures and suspensions in time ascending order Set up the following table:

Fill in Rank and Reverse Rank, and in Time column, include whether it was a Suspension or Failure If two data points have the same time to failure, they are both presented in the column, and they will both get median rank values

Plotting Data on Weibull Paper


Use equation to get Adjusted Rank (A.R.):

A.R.=[Reverse Rank X Previous Rank + (N+1)] / [Reverse Rank + 1]

Use Benards Median Rank formula to get new Median Rank (since adjusted rank is not an integer):
Benards M.R.=(i-0.3) X 100 / (N+0.4)

Fill out previous table, and plot: Draw a best fit line through the points, make sure it is 1:1 Weibull paper
Benards M. R. on the y-axis Time on x-axis

Weibull Example: Preparing Weibull Plot by Hand


Parameters: You are given the following data, 8 total parts, 5 failures at 49,82,96,30, and 90 hours and, 3 suspensions at 45,10, and 100 hours Question: At how many hours can you expect approximately 50% of the parts to fail?

Weibull Example: Preparing Weibull Plot by Hand


Set up and fill in table:

Plot the points on 1:1 Weibull Paper Draw a best fit line through the points and draw a line across from the 50% mark and down to the time axis

Weibull Example: Preparing Weibull Plot by Hand

50% fail by 77 hours

Interpreting the Plot


Eta, Beta, PVE, and N/S

PVE %: Goodness of fit indicator for Weibull line


10% is acceptable, 50% is average

N/S: Total number of data points/ Number of Suspensions

Interpreting the Plot


Eta - Characteristic life: Age at which 63.2% of parts will fail


Parameter most effected by suspensions

Interpreting the Plot

Beta Slope of Weibull line: Failure Mode


Beta < 1.0 indicates infant mortality Beta = 1.0 indicates random failures that are independent of age Beta > 1.0 indicates wear out failures

Interpreting the Plot


Use PVE number to evaluate fit of line Use Beta to evaluate failure method Look for Bad Weibull characteristics

Bad Weibull

Curved Weibull data


Origin not at t=0, must use three-parameter Weibull

Outlying data points


Look at engineering aspects of data recording, test records, calibrations, etc.

Two different slopes of Weibull data


More than one failure mode represented by data, try to separate data

Bad Weibull

Close Serial Numbers


Batch problem

If PVE number is unacceptable


Look to different distributions, Log normal, Three-parameter Weibull

Careful, few data points leads to high PVE number

Failure Forecasting

Expected number of failures that may occur in a specific period of time Predicts:
Future failures when failed units are replaced Future failures when failed units are not replaced

Failure Forecasting

Additional input needed:


Age of components in service Usage rate Introduction rate of new units Failed parts replacement info

Appendix B: Weibayes Extras

Weibayes: Finding With No Failures


Hand Calculation

Assume at Least One Failure is Imminent: Use Weibayes equation to find Assume 1 failure (r=1) since a failure is imminent (yields 63% confidence) Use the following table to achieve different confidences:

Zero Failure Plan Table, = 1

K=[(-1/N)*ln(0.1)](1/)

Chi Squared Table for Use With Weibayes Hand Calculations

Use 0.10 column for 90% Lower Bound, 0.05 for 95% Lower Bound, etc.

One-Failure Test Plan Table, = 1

(1-Confidence)=(e-(k))N+N(e-(k))N-1(1- e-(k))