2013 Texas Lyceum Poll Executive Summary of Economic Evaluations, Job Approval, an Trial !

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Were anxious about the (national) economy, we like our leaders, and we werent aware there is another election just around the corner A September 6-20, 2013 survey of adult Texans reveals that while one Star State residents are fairly positive about the state!s e"onomy, they thin# the worst is yet to "ome for the national e"onomy and are only somewhat optimisti" with respe"t to the e"onomi" future for their "hildren$ %ob approval and favorability numbers for politi"al fi&ures and &roups su&&est that Texans are not as down on their leaders as people elsewhere in the "ountry$ Texas adults are sli&htly approvin& of 'resident (bama and si&nifi"antly approvin& of )overnor 'erry$ *ven the Texas e&islature s"ores an approval ratin& "lose to 60 per"ent$ oo#in& ahead to the 201+ ele"tions, the "rystal ball is ha,y-lots of people have no opinion on any of the ra"es$ Still, the "urrent ballot tests indi"ate the pro.epubli"an results of re"ent ele"tions in Texas may well "ontinue in 201+/ )re& Abbott leads 0endy 1avis by a 22 per"ent to 21 per"ent mar&in, and a &eneri" .epubli"an "andidate leads a &eneri" 1emo"rat in both the 3$S$ 4ouse and the Texas 4ouse ballots 522 per"ent to 23 per"ent, and 23 per"ent to 12 per"ent, respe"tively6$ The &ood news for the )(' is that these numbers translate into an ed&e of between 7 and 16 points, assumin& unde"ided voters brea# proportionately$ The 5potentially6 &ood news for the 1emo"rats is that rou&hly half of the potential ele"torate hasn!t thou&ht enou&h about the ele"tion yet to have an opinion$

Summary of "in in#s

General and Economic Evaluations 0e as#ed a series of 8uestions about the respondents! &eneral and e"onomi" evaluations of Texas and the "ountry$ 9onsistent with re"ent years, Texans rate the state!s e"onomy as better off than that of the nation!s e"onomy$ :ut a stron& ma;ority believes that the worst is yet to "ome for the national e"onomy$ 'eople split on what to expe"t for the future - optimism for our "hildren!s &eneration appears to be tempered by a stron& sense that our national e"onomi" problems may be intra"table rather than ;ust stubborn$ Thirty per"ent of adult Texans believe that the "ountry is headed in the ri&ht dire"tion, "ompared with <2 per"ent who believe we are off on the wron& tra"#$ This is a mar#ed departure from last year, when +2 per"ent of re&istered voters believed the "ountry was on the ri&ht tra"# while <1 per"ent were on the wron& tra"#$ oo#in& spe"ifi"ally to the e"onomy, 32 per"ent of Texans expressed the opinion that the national e"onomy is better off "ompared with a year a&o, while 22 per"ent said that it was worse off$ Thirty-seven per"ent said that it was about the same$
Texas Lyceum oll Executive !ummary "ctober #$%&

0ith a similar sentiment of pessimism, when as#ed whether the worst was over or the worst was yet to "ome with respe"t to the e"onomy, only 30 per"ent of Texans said that the worst was over while <7 per"ent believe that the worst is still yet to "ome$

Similar to previous Texas y"eum 'olls, Texans remain optimisti" about the state their state!s e"onomy "ompared to the nations!$ 0hen as#ed whether Texas! e"onomy is better off, worse off, or about the same as the rest of the "ountry, 62 per"ent of respondents expressed the opinion that Texas! e"onomy is the better off, "ompared with only = per"ent who thou&ht Texas was worse off, and the remainin& 26 per"ent who said that it was about the same$ :ut similar to the "ountry as a whole, a disparity exists dependin& on edu"ation level$ 0hile fully =6 per"ent of those with a "olle&e de&ree believe that Texas! e"onomy is better off, only +2 per"ent of those without a hi&h s"hool diploma a&ree with an e8ual share believin& that Texas! e"onomy is worse off$

oo#in& to the respondent!s personal situation, when as#ed to assess their family!s own finan"ial situation "ompared with one year a&o, <0 per"ent said that their situation had remained un"han&ed with about even numbers, 26 per"ent and 23 per"ent respe"tively, expressin& that they were better or worse off$ 0hen as#ed to loo# to the future, a plurality of Texans, +1 per"ent, believe that their "hildren will be better off e"onomi"ally$ Thirty-five per"ent thin# that their "hildren will be worse off and 1= per"ent believe that they will be about the same$ 'ob ())roval Turnin& to the approval numbers, <0 per"ent of re&istered voters thin# that 'resident (bama is doin& a &ood ;ob as president "ompared with += per"ent who thin# that he!s doin& a poor ;ob$ :ut lar&e partisan and ra"ial &aps do exist$ 0hile 72 per"ent of 1emo"rats, 77 per"ent of bla"#s, and =1 per"ent of 4ispani"s approve of the ;ob that 'resident (bama is doin&, =6 per"ent of .epubli"ans and 63 per"ent of whites disapprove$

As for )overnor 'erry, <6 per"ent of re&istered voters approve of the ;ob he is doin& as &overnor "ompared with 3+ per"ent who disapprove$ As is the "ase with 'resident (bama, but in reverse, .epubli"ans overwhelmin& approve of the ;ob that the &overnor has done while a ma;ority of 1emo"rats disapprove$

Texas Lyceum oll Executive !ummary "ctober #$%&

9omin& off of the re"ent le&islative session, the Texas e&islature re"eived hi&h mar#s from Texans with <2 per"ent approvin& of their performan"e "ompared with only 2= per"ent disapprovin&$ >n addition to stron& approval from .epubli"ans, a ma;ority of independents 5<3 per"ent6 and even <0 per"ent of 1emo"rats expressed their approval of the e&islature this session$

Trial *allots oo#in& ahead to the 201+ ele"tions, 3< per"ent of re&istered voters said that they would vote in the ?ar"h .epubli"an 'rimary ele"tions, "ompared with 22 per"ent who said they would vote in the 1emo"rati" 'rimary, and 16 per"ent who admitted to not usually votin& in primary ele"tions$ Amon& self-identified .epubli"an 'rimary voters, )re& Abbott is the "lear favorite with 22 per"ent of the vote and only to#en support for his potential rivals/ Tom 'au#en, ?iriam ?artine,, and arry @il&ore$ 4owever, by the numbers the ra"e is still wide open, as 62 per"ent of respondents indi"ated that they hadn!t yet thou&ht enou&h about the ele"tion to have an opinion$ Should State Sen$ 0endy 1avis run for )overnor, she will be the li#ely 1emo"rati" nominee to fa"e Abbott$ oo#in& ahead to that ele"tion, we as#ed respondents whom they would pi"# should that be the mat"hup$ Amon& re&istered voters, 22 per"ent said they would vote for )re& Abbott, 21 per"ent said that they would vote for 0endy 1avis, and <0 per"ent hadn!t yet thou&ht about it enou&h to have a preferen"e$ Aot surprisin&ly, 1emo"rats and bla"# respondents expressed a preferen"e for 1avis while white respondents, independents, men, and .epubli"ans expressed a preferen"e for Abbott$ 4ispani"s showed a sli&ht preferen"e for 1avis, and women expressed a very sli&ht preferen"e for Abbott that is within the mar&in of error$

?ore &enerally, 22 per"ent of re&istered voters said that they would "hoose the .epubli"an "andidate for 9on&ress "ome Aovember 201+ while 23 per"ent said that they would "hoose the 1emo"rat 5+3 per"ent hadn!t thou&ht about it enou&h to have an opinion6$ Bor the Texas e&islature, 23 per"ent said that they would "hoose the .epubli"an "andidate "ompared with 12 per"ent who said that they would "hoose the 1emo"rati" "andidate 5<3 per"ent hadn!t thou&ht about it enou&h to have an opinion6$

?ore broadly still, with the Supreme 9ourt!s invalidation of Se"tion + of the Cotin& .i&hts A"t, Attorney )eneral and )ubernatorial "andidate )re& Abbott stated
Texas Lyceum oll Executive !ummary "ctober #$%&

that Texas "ould now pro"eed with its voter identifi"ation law$ 0e as#ed Texans whether they believe that votin& and ele"tion laws in Texas dis"riminate a&ainst minorities$ A ma;ority, 6+ per"ent, said that they did not while 31 per"ent said that they did$ And while a ma;ority of 1emo"rats expressed the opinion that these laws dis"riminate a&ainst minorities 5<2 per"ent6, amon& minorities themselves, there appeared to be an ambivalent rea"tion$ Bifty-one per"ent of bla"#s thin# these laws dis"riminate "ompared with +1 per"ent who believe they don!t$ And amon& 4ispani"s, +< per"ent thin# that these laws do dis"riminate, less than the +2 per"ent who believe that they don!t$

$et%o olo#y Brom September 6-20, 2013, The Texas y"eum "ondu"ted a statewide telephone survey of adult "iti,ens$ The survey utili,ed a stratified probability sample desi&n, with respondents bein& randomly sele"ted at the level of the household$ The survey also employed a randomi,ed "ell phone supplement, with approximately 32 per"ent of "ompleted interviews bein& "ondu"ted amon& "ell phone only or "ell phone dominant households$ A Spanish-lan&ua&e instrument was developed and bilin&ual interviewers offered respondents a "han"e to parti"ipate in *n&lish or Spanish$ (n avera&e, respondents "ompleted the interview in 12 minutes$ Approximately 6,100 re"ords were drawn to yield 1,000 "ompleted interviews$ The final data set is wei&hted by ra"eDethni"ity, a&e and &ender to a"hieve representativeness as defined by the Texas spe"ifi"ations from the 2010 9urrent 'opulation Study$ The overall mar&in of error for the poll is ED- 3$1 per"enta&e points$ The &eneral ele"tion ballot 8uestions were as#ed of the survey!s =27 re&istered voters 5mar&in of error is ED- 3$+= per"enta&e points6$ The .epubli"an primary ballot 8uestions were as#ed of the 2=2 re&istered voters who said that they intended to vote in next ?ar"h!s )(' primary ele"tion 5mar&in of error is <$7= per"enta&e points6$

T%e Texas Lyceum The Texas y"eum has "ommitted to annual probability samples of the state of Texas to bolster its understandin& of publi" opinion on "ru"ial poli"y issues$ The professional rationale for the Texas y"eum 'oll is strai&htforward/ a non-partisan, hi&h 8uality, s"ientifi" survey desi&ned to provide 516 spe"ifi" data points on issues of interest, and 526 a time series of #ey demo&raphi"s, attitudes, and opinions$ Towards this end, the trademar# of the Texas y"eum 'oll is transparen"y$ Top-line
Texas Lyceum oll Executive !ummary "ctober #$%&

and detailed "ross-tabular results of ea"h poll will be made available on the Texas y"eum website at &&&'texaslyceum'or#' The Texas y"eum, now 33 years stron&, is a non-profit, non-partisan statewide leadership or&ani,ation fo"used on identifyin& the next &eneration of Texas leaders$ The Texas y"eum "onsists of 26 men and women from throu&hout the state$ 1ire"tors be&in their servi"e while under the a&e of +6 and have demonstrated leadership in their "ommunity and profession, to&ether with a deep "ommitment to Texas$ The Texas y"eum a"ts as a "atalyst to brin& to&ether diverse opinions and expertise to fo"us on national and state issues, and see#s to emphasi,e "onstru"tive private se"tor, publi" se"tor, and individual responses to the issues$ To a""omplish these purposes, the y"eum "ondu"ts periodi" publi" forums, publishes the y"eum Journal, "ommissions The Texas y"eum 'oll, and "onvenes pro&rams for the 1ire"tors to explore and dis"uss #ey e"onomi" and so"ial issues of the state and nation$

Texas Lyceum oll Executive !ummary "ctober #$%&