MEMORANDUM

TO: The Minnesota Jobs Coalition FROM: B.J. Martino DATE: November 21, 2013 RE: Summary Findings from a Survey of Voters in Minnesota ______________________________________________________________________________ The Tarrance Group is pleased to present The Minnesota Jobs Coalition with the findings from a survey of likely voter attitudes in Minnesota. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of N=400 registered “likely” voters, using a blended methodology of automated calls to voters with landline phones and live calls to voters on cell phones. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 5% in 19 of 20 cases. The surveys were conducted on November 19-20, 2013.

Executive Summary The results from this recent survey of voters in Minnesota highlight the concerns Minnesota voters have with the direction our country is headed in, and the President’s health care law. While Governor Dayton grapples with an electorate divided over his re-election, his handling of the implementation of Obamacare has been and will continue to be a problem for him. Senator Al Franken is also feeling the effects of negative attitudes about the country and Obamacare.

Direction of the Country Minnesota voters are largely not happy with the direction in which the country is headed. Six in ten (60%) say the country is headed down the wrong track, just over 2:1 over those who say things are going in the right direction.
“Do you feel like the country is headed in the right direction, or is going off on the wrong track?” Right Direction 28% Wrong Track 60%

Obamacare A 51% majority of likely Minnesota voters currently disapprove of President Obama’s health care law. Furthermore, a 43% plurality strongly disapprove, significantly greater than the intensity of those who approve (at only 29% strongly approve).

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“Do you approve or disapprove of the President Obama’s health care law, known as Obamacare, which has been in the news recently?” Approve Strongly Disapprove Strongly Unsure 43% 29% 51% 43% 7%*

While partisan Republicans and DFL voters are mostly polarized on the issue (88% of Republican disapprove, while 84% of DFL voters approve), independent voters break 2:1 against the law. Only 31% of independents approve, while a 62% majority of independents disapprove of Obamacare.

Senator Franken Anti-incumbency over the direction of the country and negative attitudes towards Obamacare may contribute to the fact that Senator Al Franken has only a marginal positive re-elect. Fortyfive percent (45%) say he deserves re-election, while 43% say it is time for a new person. Intensity on each side is within the margin of error.
“Do you think Minnesota’s U.S. Senator Al Franken has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, or is it time to give a new person a chance?” Deserves Strongly New Person Strongly Unsure 45% 32% 43% 34% 11%

Governor Dayton Minnesota voters are divided on the question of re-electing Mark Dayton. Forty-five percent (45%) say he has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while 45% say it is time to give a new person a chance. Here, the intensity slightly favors those calling for a new person.

“Do you think Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, or is it time to give a new person a chance?” Deserves Strongly New Person Strongly Unsure 45% 29% 45% 34% 10%

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The Tarrance Group 201 North Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688

Governor Dayton and Obamacare Informed on Governor Dayton’s ongoing problems with the rollout of Obamacare in the state, a 49% plurality say they would be less likely to vote for him because of it. Only 34% say they would be more likely.

“Under Obamacare, Governor Dayton spent over $9 million dollars marketing the state-run health insurance exchange, while it suffered a data breach that released thousands of Social Security numbers. In Minnesota alone, over 140,000 self-insured individuals have been told their policies are being cancelled. Does Governor Dayton’s handling of Obamacare make you more likely or less like to vote for him?” More likely Strongly Less likely Strongly Unsure 34% 23% 49% 38% 17%

Among independent voters who do not identify with either major party, a 54% majority say they are less likely to vote for Dayton because of his handling of Obamacare (while a mere 23% say more likely).

* total responses will sometimes not equal 100% due to rounding

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The Tarrance Group 201 North Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 684-6688

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