AP Statistics Syllabus

Instructor: Textbook: Bridgit Asuncion Stats – Modeling the World, AP edition, by Bock, Velle an and !e Veaux, Pearson – Addison Wesley, "##$%

&ther re'uired aterials: Pencil, ()! *en, + ring binder ,ith tab di-iders, TI./+0/1 Plus or TI./+0/1 Sil-er )dition gra*hing calculator 2ourse descri*tion: Statistics is the art and science o3 collecting, organi4ing, analy4ing, and dra,ing conclusions 3ro data% In AP Statistics, ,e ,ill 3ocus on 3our a5or the es: ex*loratory data analysis, designing studies, *robability odels and si ulation, and statistical in3erence% AP Statistics is designed as the e'ui-alent o3 a one.se ester, introductory college statistics course% In order to get the axi u nu ber o3 colleges and uni-ersities to grant credit and0or *lace ent 3or high scores on the AP Statistics exa , the 2ollege Board has cra3ted a syllabus that includes all to*ics 3ound in nearly any college introductory statistics class% As a result, the high school course co-ers ore to*ics in greater de*th than any single 6e'ui-alent7 college course% In this course, students de-elo* strategies 3or collecting, organi4ing, analy4ing, and dra,ing conclusions 3ro data% Students design, ad inister, and tabulate results 3ro sur-eys and ex*eri ents% Probability and si ulations aid students in constructing odels 3or chance *heno ena% Sa *ling distributions *ro-ide the logical structure 3or con3idence inter-als and hy*othesis tests% Students use a TI./+ gra*hing calculator, statistical so3t,are out*ut, and Web. based 5a-a a**lets and acti-ities to in-estigate statistical conce*ts% To de-elo* e33ecti-e statistical co unication skills, students are re'uired to *re*are 3re'uent ,ritten and oral analyses o3 real data% 2ourse goals: 89: To hel* you beco e an educated consu er o3 data and statistical clai s% 8": To introduce you to the *ractice o3 doing statistics% Along the ,ay, I ho*e you ,ill see the any and -aried a**lications o3 statistics in edicine, business, *sychology, en-iron ental science, and other i *ortant 3ields% ;ou ust learn to co unicate your thinking e33ecti-ely and e33iciently% I<ll *ro-ide the *ractice% 8+: To *re*are you to take the AP Statistics exa in May% =ote: All students are ex*ected to take the AP test in Statistics, a three.hour test gi-en in May% Those ,ho o*t not to take the test ,ill be gi-en a t,o.hour e'ui-alent test in class% Inside the 2lassroo : Since AP Statistics *laces e'ual i *ortance on the accuracy o3 your statistical ethodology and the 'uality o3 your statistical co unication, I ,ill design in-estigations and assign ents that allo, you to de-elo* your skills in both these areas% There ,ill be 3re'uent ,riting assign ents based on real data, statistical analyses, and research studies% &utside the 2lassroo : Students ,ill be re'uired to read and take notes 3ro the *ri ary text outside o3 class% >o e,ork ,ill be assigned daily% Pro5ects and in-estigati-e tasks ,ill be assigned to hel* de onstrate understanding o3 statistical conce*ts and to hel* *re*are 3or the AP exa %

Technology: The gra*hing calculator o33ers you a -ariety o3 tools 3or entering, storing, sharing, dis*laying, analy4ing, si ulating and co *aring sets o3 data% A -ariety o3 online ?a-a a**lets, Po,er.Point de onstrations, and ,ebsites are used to illustrate course content% Abbre-iations used in the course outline: IVT. In-estigati-e Task Textbook Correlation Unit 1: Exploring and Understanding Data 25 days Introduction to Statistics and Data- intro to statistics, data, and -ariation@ analy4ing SMW data@ categorical -s% 'uantitati-e -ariables 2h9." Displaying and Describing Categorical Data – Are'uency tables@ the area *rinci*le@ SMW bar charts@ *ie charts@ contingency tables@ conditional distributions@ seg ented bar 2h+ charts@ Si *son<s *aradox Acti-ity: Is the color distribution o3 *lain and *eanut MBM<s inde*endent o3 candy ty*eC Skill: Analy4ing Bad Dra*hs. Aind a gra*h in a ne,s*a*er, aga4ine, or on the internet that is an exa *le o3 a -iolation o3 the area *rinci*le% )x*lain ho, the gra*h is isleading and ,hat should be changed to i *ro-e it% Displaying Quantitative Data – >istogra s@ ste .and.lea3 dis*lays@ dot*lots@ sha*e, SMW center, and s*read@ co *aring distributions@ ti e*lots 2h1 Skill: Making a histogra on the calculator A**let: )33ects o3 Bin Width on >istogra s Describing Distributions Numerically – Median, IE(, and F.nu ber su ary@ SMW aking and co *aring box*lots@ ean and standard de-iation@ -ariability@ 2hF deter ining ,hich su ary statistics to use ,hen IVT: Auto Sa3ety In-estigati-e Task. Students analy4e and co *are auto sa3ety records a ong s all, id.si4e, and large -ehicles using gra*hical and nu erical easures in order to dra, a conclusion concerning insurance *olicies% The Normal Model – Standardi4ing ,ith z-scores@ ho, shi3ting and rescaling data SMW e33ect sha*e, center, and s*read@ G/.HF.HH%$ rule@ z-scores 3or *ercentiles@ nor al 2hG *robability *lots@ assessing nor ality Skill: Ainding nor al *ercentiles using the calculator ssessment- Eui4. 2ha*ter 9.1@ Eui4. 2ha*ter F.G@ Init 9 )xa SMW 2h9.G Unit 2: Exploring elations!ips "et#een $ariables Scatterplots! association! and correlation – !escribing scatter*lots@ ex*lanatory -s% res*onse -ariable@ *ro*erties o3 correlation@ correlation tables@ correlation -s% association@ lurking -ariables and causation Skill: Making a scatter*lot using the calculator A**let: Visuali4ing Strength and !irection ,ith 2orrelation "inear #egression – The linear odel@ residuals@ least s'uares regression line 8JS(J:@ inter*reting correlation@ r " . the -ariation accounted 3or@ *ro*erties o3 r " @ inter*reting the slo*e and y.interce*t and r " in context@ Pro*erties o3 the JS(J . 25 days SMW 2h$ Course Content

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b = r ×s y s$ @ ( $ , y ) on JS(J Skills: 2alculator disco-ery o3 JS(J *ro*erties@ co *uting residuals B aking residual *lots on the calculator Acti-ity: Burger King. Students ,ill gather data about the 3at content and calories o3 3oods 3ro a Burger King enu in order to analy4e and inter*ret the data as a re-ie, o3 the cha*ter<s content% IVT: S oking In-estigati-e Task. Students analy4e data on cigarette consu *tion and 2oronary >eart !isease Mortality to describe the association, create a linear odel, and e-aluate the strength and a**ro*riateness o3 the odel% #egression %isdom – Subsets ,ithin data@ *rediction -s% extra*olation@ outliers, le-erage, and in3luential *oints@ lurking -ariables and causation@ su ary -alues less -ariable than indi-idual -alues IVT: &ly *ic Jong ?u *s In-estigati-e Task. Students analy4e data on the Men<s &ly *ic long 5u * distances 3ro 9/HG to "###% Trends in long 5u * *er3or ances, historical analysis o3 ga*s in data and the caution o3 extra*olation are addressed% #e-e$pressing Data – Straightening relationshi*s@ goals o3 re.ex*ression@ the ladder o3 *o,ers@ *o,er odels – log $, log y trans3or ations@ ex*onential odels – log y trans3or ation@ choosing the best odel – residuals and r " Skill: Trans3or ation and regression odels on the calculator IVT: Alligator In-estigati-e Task. Students ,ill analy4e non.linear bi-ariate data regarding the length and ,eights o3 alligators in order to ake the best *rediction o3 ,eight 3or an alligator o3 HG inches in length% Students ust also ,eigh the *ros and cons o3 *ossible in3luential outliers% ssessment- Eui4 2ha*ter $@ Eui4 2ha*ter /.H@ Init " )xa Unit %: &at!ering Data &nderstanding #andomness – Making and conducting si ulations@ *seudorando nu bers@ tables o3 rando digits@ co *onents o3 a si ulation Skill: Ising rando digits and using the calculator to hel* carry out si ulations Acti-ity: Streaky Beha-ior Jab. Students ,ill ex*lore real rando ness -s% *ercei-ed rando ness by exa ining coin 3li*s to deter ine the length o3 a 6streak7 o3 heads in a real coin 3li* se'uence% Pro5ect: Si ulation Pro5ect. Students ,ill create their o,n scenario that can be odeled by a *robability si ulation and *resent their *roble and solution in *oster 3or at% 'btaining (ood Samples – Si *le rando sa *le 8S(S:@ strati3ied sa *ling@ cluster sa *ling, syste atic sa *ling, ulti.stage sa *ling Sampling - sa *le si4e@ census@ *o*ulations and *ara eters -s% sa *les and statistics@ sa *ling badly – -oluntary res*onse@ con-enience sa *ling@ Designing and Implementing Surveys – Euestions: ,ording, ty*e, order@ ad inistration ethods@ res*onse bias@ underco-erage and nonres*onse bias )$periments and 'bservational Studies – obser-ational studies -s% rando i4ed co *arati-e ex*eri ents@ s@ control treat ents@ blinding@ *lacebos@ blocking@ 3actors@ con3ounding -ariables -s% lurking -ariables *asics o+ )$perimental Design – Sub5ects, 3actors, treat ents, ex*lanatory B res*onse

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-ariables, *lacebo e33ect, blinding@ co *letely rando i4ed design 82(!:@ diagra s ,rinciples o+ )$perimental Design – control, rando assign ent, re*lication More dvanced )$perimental Designs – Multi.3actor ex*eri ents@ block designs@ ,hy blockC@ di33erence bet,een blocking and strati3ying@ atched *airs design Pro5ect: Mid.2ourse Sur-ey0)x*eri ent Pro5ect. In grou*s o3 +.1, students ,ill conduct a sur-ey, study, or ex*eri ent, or do a si ulation% They ,ill su ari4e data, ake a class *resentation, and sub it a ,ritten re*ort that de onstrates a**ro*riate statistical -ocabulary% ssessment- Eui4 2ha*ter 99@ Eui4 2ha*ter 9"@ Init + )xa SMW 2h 99.9+ Unit (: ando)ness and Probability *asic ,robability Concepts – Probability as long.run relati-e 3re'uency@ rando ness@ legiti ate *robability odels@ 3unda ental counting rule@ sa *le s*aces, outco es, e-ents@ la, o3 large nu bers *asic ,robability #ules – Addition rule 3or dis5oint e-ents@ co *le ent rule@ 6so ething has to ha**en7 rule@ ulti*lication rule 3or inde*endent e-ents@ union and intersection o3 t,o e-ents ,robability #ules – Deneral addition rule, Venn diagra s, union and intersection@ general ulti*lication rule, de3inition o3 inde*endence@ conditional *robability, tree diagra s@ dis5oint -s% inde*endent@ introduction to Bayes< (ule #andom -ariables – !iscrete -s% continuous@ Discrete #andom -ariables – ex*ected -alue and standard de-iation #ules +or Means and -ariances – linear trans3or ations o3 a single -ariable, linear co binations o3 rando -ariables, inde*endence Continuous #andom -ariables – 2o bining nor al rando -ariables, calculating *robabilities Skill: Mean and Standard !e-iation 3or Probability Models on the 2alculator *inomial and (eometric #andom -ariables – Bernoulli trials@ *robability density 3unction 8*d3: -s% cu ulati-e density 3unction 8cd3: (eometric Distributions – . L M o3 trials u* to and including 9st success@ calculating geo etric *robabilities@ ex*ected -alue o3 geo etric rando -ariable@ *inomial Distributions – . L M o3 successes@ calculating bino ial *robability@ 3inding ean and standard de-iation 3or a bino ial rando -ariable Normal ppro$imation – )sti ating bino ial *robabilities ,ith nor al calculations Skill: Deo etric and Bino ial distributions on the calculator ssessment- Eui4 2ha*ter 91@ Eui4 2ha*ter 9F@ Eui4 2ha*ter 9G@ Init 1 )xa 2* days SMW 2h91

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Unit 5: +ro) t!e Data at ,and to t!e -orld at .arge Sampling Distribution Models - Mo-ing to,ards in3erence@ de3inition o3 sa *ling distribution@ standard error N - Mean and standard de-iation o3 sa *ling distribution@ Sampling Distributions o+ p nor al a**roxi ation@ assu *tions and conditions – S(S, sa *le is O 9#P o3 *o*ulation, success03ailure condition Sampling Distributions o+ $ - Mean and standard de-iation o3 sa *ling distribution@

2entral Ji it Theore 82JT:@ assu *tions and conditions – S(S, inde*endence, 9#P condition, large enough sa *le condition Acti-ity: Tacks acti-ity. ex*loring sa *ling distributions 3or sa *le *ro*ortions A**lets: 2on-ergence o3 the Su o3 !ice to =or ality@ 2entral Ji it Theore 3or Means Con+idence Intervals +or ,roportions – con3idence inter-als to esti ate a *o*ulation *ro*ortion, p )stimating an &n/no0n ,arameter – The idea o3 a con3idence inter-al@ connection ,ith sa *ling distributions@ argin o3 error@ critical -alues Con+idence Interval Considerations – 2hanging con3idence le-el@ inter*reting 2I -s% inter*reting con3idence le-el@ deter ining sa *le si4e@ assu *tions and conditions – inde*endence, S(S, 9#P condition, success03ailure condition Skill: 2alculate a one.*ro*ortion con3idence inter-al on the calculator Acti-ity: Starburst Jab. Ising a bag o3 Starburst candies, students ,ill sa *le ,ith re*lace ent, recording the *ro*ortion o3 red candy in +# dra,s and create a con3idence inter-al to esti ate the *ro*ortion o3 red candies% Students ,ill gra*h their 2I on chart *a*er to illustrate the conce*ts o3 sa *ling -ariability and con3idence le-el% Testing 1ypotheses bout ,roportions – Signi3icance tests ,ith the in3erence toolbox Tests o+ Signi+icance – Inderlying logic o3 signi3icance tests@ stating hy*otheses@ one tailed -s% t,o.tailed tests@ P.-alues -s% 3ixed signi3icance le-els@ Skill: &ne *ro*ortion 4.test on calculator More bout Tests – !e3inition o3 6statistically signi3icant7@ signi3icance le-el, critical -alue@ Type I 2 II )rrors! ,o0er – Ty*e I B II error in context@ connection bet,een *o,er and Ty*e II error A**let: (elationshi* Bet,een Ty*e I )rrors, Ty*e II )rrors, and the Po,er o3 the Test IVT: Ji3e A3ter >igh School In-estigati-e Task. Students ,ill in-estigate results o3 a sur-ey o3 graduating seniors< high school *lans% Students ,ill create con3idence inter-als, conduct a**ro*riate hy*othesis testing, and inter*ret Ty*e I and Ty*e II errors in their analysis% )stimating the Di++erence *et0een ,opulation ,roportions Testing a Claim about the Di++erence *et0een ,opulation ,roportions – Ising the *ooled *ro*ortion as an esti ate@ creating a t,o.*ro*ortion 4.inter-al@ conducting a t,o.*ro*ortion 4.test Skill: T,o.*ro*ortion in3erence on the calculator ssessment- Eui4 2ha*ter 9/@ Eui4 2ha*ter 9H@ Eui4 2ha*ter "#@ Eui4 2ha*ter "9@ Init F )xa Unit 0: 1n2erence about Population 3eans Statistical In+erence +or Mean - !escribing sa *ling distributions o3 sa *le eans using a odel selected 3ro the t-distributions based on degrees o3 3reedo @ -ariability in sa *le eans is the standard error@ argin o3 error 3or a con3idence inter-al@ testing hy*otheses about *o*ulation eans@ checking assu *tions@ relationshi*s bet,een inter-als and tests Skill: Per3or ing t *rocedures on the calculator

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Statistical In+erence to Compare the Means o+ T0o Independent (roups - t- odels@ checking assu *tions@ standard error 3or the di33erence bet,een t,o eans@ t,o. sa *le t inter-als and t,o.sa *le t-tests Skill: Per3or ing t,o.sa *le t *rocedures on the calculator – di33erent d3 IVT: SAT Per3or ance In-estigati-e Task. Students ,ill dra, a rando sa *le 3ro a student roster, care3ully ex*laining the *rocedure used% Aro this sa *le, they ,ill create a HFP 2I 3or the ean ath SAT I score at this high school and co *are this ean to the state,ide ean% ,aired Samples and *loc/s – Matched *airs -s% t,o inde*endent sa *les IVT: SAT Per3or ance In-estigati-e Task 2ontinued. Students are to use their data to analy4e ,hether there is a signi3icant di33erence bet,een -erbal and ath scores 3or these students and ,hether ales ha-e higher SAT I ath scores than 3e ales% ssessment- Eui4 2ha*ter "+@ Eui4 2ha*ter "1@ Init G )xa Unit 4: 1n2erence -!en $ariables are elated Chi-S3uare (oodness o+ 4it Test – The chi.s'uare 3a ily o3 cur-es Chi-S3uare Test o+ 1omogeneity – Inde*endent S(Ss or rando i4ed ex*eri ents Chi-S3uare Test o+ ssociation5Independence – !istinguishing bet,een ho ogeneity and association0inde*endence 'uestions Acti-ity: MBM color distributions. Ising a 2hi.S'uare Doodness o3 Ait test, students ,ill deter ine i3 the color distribution o3 MBMs is as the co *any says it is% In+erence about "inear #egression – Po*ulation -s% sa *le regression lines Con+idence Intervals and Signi+icance Tests about β - =asty 3or ulas@ co *uter out*ut@ abbre-iated in3erence toolbox Skill: (egression in3erence on the calculator IVT: AP Stats Scores In-estigati-e Task. Students ,ill analy4e the 9HH$ AP (e*ort 3or Ithaca >igh School to deter ine ho, these students< scores co *are to the national a-erage, ho, AP Stats scores co *ared to AP 2alc scores, and i3 these scores indicate ,hether I>S ales and 3e ales *er3or ed di33erently on the AP Stats )xa % ssessment- Init $ )xa

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AP )QAM ()VI)W – "# !ays • Ainal Pro5ect: Students ,ill ,ork inde*endently to co *lete a 3inal *ro5ect that de onstrates their understanding o3 the a5or conce*ts o3 AP Statistics% Students ,ill be re'uired to do all o3 the 3ollo,ing: co e u* ,ith an interesting and eaning3ul 'uestion@ use a good design 3or data collection@ su ari4e the data -isually, nu erically, and -erbally@ use the data to ake a**ro*riate in3erences@ and reach sound conclusions about the original 'uestion% Students ,ill do a class *resentation along ,ith sub itting a ,ritten re*ort that de onstrates a**ro*riate statistical -ocabulary% • 2ha*ters 9 ."$ (e-ie, • Practice AP Aree (es*onse Euestions • Mock Drading Sessions • (ubric !e-elo* ent by Student Tea s • Practice Multi*le 2hoice Euestions