The Warsaw, Copenhagen, Paris … UN Climate Change Conferences Where is the climate treaty?

Jan W. Dash, PhD Climate Statement Chair, CSD CoNGO Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker Climate Initiative Chair, UU-UNO 19 November 2013

Recent Global Warming is due to Human Generated Greenhouse Gases CO2...
20,000 years of data; CO2 spike is recent, continuing.

IPCC 2007 Science Vol I

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Model Forecasts depend on Human Behavior (Scenarios)
IPCC 2007 Science Vol I Now appear conservative

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World-Wide Climate Impacts
We are seeing bad impacts NOW !! Impacts will get FAR WORSE if we do not act !! No place to hide. !! Increased conflict (wars): National security !! Economic/finance disruption: Breakdown? !! Disasters worse due to Climate Change: Water shortages, crop failures, intense fires, droughts, disease increase, flooding, species extermination, extreme weather, sea level rise, heat waves, precipitation patterns changed…
!!
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Some progress. Big problems.
!! Need !! Need !! Need !! Need

to recognize extent of problem to understand Risk Management change (fossil fuel to renewables) action on all levels from local to global

!! Climate disinformation: fossil fuel / libertarians !! Long term solution vs. short term expediency !! Technical / political / economic / psychological !! No “silver bullet” solution exists !! Individual, NGOs, business, cities, governments !! International
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UN Climate Change Conference COP19 Warsaw, Poland 2013
November 11-22

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UN Annual Climate Conferences
!! …

Copenhagen … Warsaw … Paris … !! Goal: “FAB” International Climate Accord
!! “FAB” = Fair Ambitious Binding !! Replace Kyoto Protocol (was only first step) !! Copenhagen Accord (2009) !! Steady but slow progress: Cancun, Durban, Doha !! Warsaw: expect marginal progress (ends Friday) !! Commitment is to finalize treaty in Paris (2015)
!! Then

ratify the treaty by all countries … !! Then implement the treaty …
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Important Negotiation Bottleneck: Cumulative vs. Current Emissions
!! Cumulative

CO2: Developed countries responsible for most CO2 in atmosphere CO2: Developing country emissions rapidly increasing (China now #1)
!! Emphasized by developed countries !! Cumulative (developing) > 50% of total in10 years !! CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a long time !! Emphasized by developing countries

!! Current

!! => TREATY

GRIDLOCK

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Cumulative CO2 problem
!!

US, EU 57%, China 7% in 2000 (but developing nations cumulative CO2 will be over 50% of total by 2020)

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Other Major Negotiation Issues
!! !!

Economic growth for underdeveloped countries
!! “Energy parity” (India …) vs. CO2 emissions

Who pays for what? When?
!! $100 Billion/yr by 2020 fund – where is the $? !! Contention over reparations due to climate damage !! Other climate finance issues (Carbon tax?)

!! !!

Verification and enforcement of accord terms
!! Teeth needed for violations

International UN vs. Bilateral Negotiations

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What do you see at an international climate conference?
!! 10,000 !! Great

people

!! Energy, excitement

learning experience

!! Meet people, organize for later action !! Many talks, exhibits, side events !! City events
"! Photo exhibit – 100 places and climate change

!! You

don’t see the famous (can’t get in)

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CSD Climate Statement – Personal Copenhagen Story
!! Denmark

Prime Minister

!! Got the CSD statement to him (bodyguards)
!! Warsaw: Statement

was distributed !! Looking for volunteers for 2014 (Lima) to help distribute CSD Climate Statement

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More on UU-UNO Climate Portal climate.uu-uno.org

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Bottom Line
Climate: big problem, we can solve it
!! Human

activities causing global warming !! Climate impacts bad, can become far worse !! Climate links to many other issues !! We are arrayed against powerful opponents
!! NOT

too late to prevent worst impacts !! Vision: Renewables + climate treaty + …

!!You

can help
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Thank You

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