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Assignment 1

Fundamentals of Probability, Conditional Probability, Bayes Theorem

Question 1. What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays? Question 2. A room has 3 electric lamps. From a collection of 10 electric bulbs of which 6 are good, 3 are selected at random and put in the lamps. Find the probability that the room is lighted. Question 3. A coin is tossed until the first head occurs. Assuming that the tosses are independent and the probability of a head occurring is p, find the value of p so that the probability that an odd number of tosses are required is equal to 0.6. Can you find a value of p so that so that the probability is 0.5 that an odd number of tosses are required? Question 4. The odds against A solving a certain problem are 4 to 3 and odds in favor of B solving the same problem are 7 to 5. What is the probability that the problem is solved if they both try independently? Question 5. For a certain binary channel, the probability that a transmitted 0 is correctly received as 0 is 0.94 and the probability that a transmitted 1 was received as 1 is 0.91. Further, the probability of transmitting a 0 is 0.45. If a signal is sent, determine (i) (ii) The probability that a 0 was received, The probability that a 0 was transmitted given that a 0 was received, and

(iii) The probability of an error. Question 6. Two weak students attempt to write a programme. Their chances of writing the programme successfully are 1/8 and 1/12, respectively, and the chance of making a common error is 1/1001. Find the chance that the programme is correctly written. Question 7. A computer centre has three printers A, B, and C, which print at different

August 20, 2013

speeds. Programmers are routed to the first available printer. The probability that the programmes are routed to the printers A, B, and C are 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 respectively. Occasionally, a printer will jam and destroy a print out. The probability that printers A, B and C will jam are 0.01, 0.05 and 0.04 respectively. Your programme is destroyed when a printer jams. What is the probability that printer A is involved?

Question 8. There are 3 true coins and 1 false coin with head on both sides. A coin is chosen at random and tossed 4 times. If head occur all the 4 times, what is the probability that the false coin was chosen and used? Question 9. 5 men out of 100 and 25 women out of 1000 are colour-blind. A colourblind person is chosen at random. What is the probability that the person is a male? (Assume male and female are in equal numbers) Question 10. Players X and Y roll a pair of dice alternatively. The player who rolls 11 first wins. If X starts, find his chance of winning. Question 11. Three persons A, B and C draw in succession from a bag containing 8 red and 4 black balls until a black ball is drawn. What is the probability that C draws the black ball? Question 12. Airtel offers three different services to their customers: phone, internet, and cable. A survey of 300 Airtel cable customers showed that 80 of them use the phone service (P) also, 120 use the Internet service (N) also, and 75 used both of these services along with the cable service. This situation can be illustrated by the following Venn diagram:

U = all Airtel cable users P I III II N

1. What does each of these regions represent in terms of the cable customers surveyed: August 20, 2013 a) Region I? b) Region II? c) Region III? 2. Fill in the number of customers that are in each region. How many in costumers are there in U?

3. From the diagram, determine: a) P(cable only); b) P(cable and phone); c) P(cable and Internet, but not phone); d) P(cable and phone or cable and Internet). Question 13. Suppose that colored balls are distributed in 3 boxes as follows: box 1 contains 2 red, 3 white and 5 blue balls, box 2 contains 4 red, 1 white and 3 blue balls, and box 3 contains 3 red, 4 white and 5 blue balls. A box is selected at random, one ball is chosen from it and it is observed to be red. What is the probability that box 3 was selected? Question 14. A pair of dice is rolled once. Let A be the event that the first die has a 2 on it, B the event that the second die has a 4 on it and C the event that the sum is 6. Are A, B, and C independent? Question 15. Two fair dice are thrown independently. Four events A, B, C, and D are defined as follows: A: Even face with the first die B: Even face with the second die C: Sum of the points on the 2 dice is odd D: Product of the points on the 2 dice exceeds 20. Find the probabilities of the four events.

August 20, 2013