Project of the Republic of Kazakhstan and UNDP “Kazakhstan – Wind Power Market Development Initiative”

Astana Wind Farm Pre-feasibility Study
Prepared by UNDP Kazakhstan Wind Power Market Development Initiative

Site Location : Wind Potential : Wind Farm Power : Net Annual Power Production :

Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan (51°08'33.7" n.l., 71°19'30.4” e.l.) 6,54 m/s 41 MW 115 627 MW*h

Shevchenko str.162 J, Wind Power Project Office Tel: +7 (727) 298 22 67, Fax: +7 (727) 298 22 66

Required Permits..1. 8 4.. Conclusion …………………………………………………………19 -2- . Grid Connection ……………………………………………………16 8. 15 7. Project Description ………………………………………………… 3 2.18 10.1... 12 6. Energy Yield Assessment …………………….8 4.. Site Data Collection and Investigation …………………………….. Commercial Modeling and Assumptions ………………………….1.2 Tower Data Analysis …………………………………………. 3 3.1 Climate and Topographic Data 4.. 11 5. Transportation Study ……………………………………………….TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.17 9. 4 3.7 4. 4 3. Approvals.2 Wind Farm Layout …………………………………………….2 Turbine Selection 4. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment …………………….1 Wind Monitoring Equipment …………………………………. Wind Potential Assessment ……………………………………….1. Taxes and Levies …………………..4 Wind Farm Losses 4.19 11.3 Long-term correlation ………………………………………….1 Wind Flow Model ……………………………………………….3 Summary of Energy Yield Results…………………………….…………………….10 4..5 3. Site Description ……………………………………………………...3 Wind Turbine Power Curve 4.

Astana’s main railway lines run roughly East to West and lie 12 km to the North. A wind farm constructed close to Astana will provide additional capacity to power further development of the city.1. The site lies to the South of the city of Astana. A windfarm of 20 to 50 MW could be accommodated within this site. The site is known to have a high water table and to flood occasionally. The land was identified as suitable by the Akimat. the Meteorological Service. The site lies beside an autobahn running directly out of the city of Astana. with a reclaimed lake adjacent to the site. Directly adjacent to the site and running SW-NE is a 110kV transmission cable and directly to the East. SITE DESCRIPTION The selected site lies within 5 km of the edge of the city and within sight of the new Governmental region built to the south of the old city. Astana is supplied almost entirely by coal-fired power. -3- . By moving the site further to the west. An area of at least 8 x 10 km is currently available for development of wind. 2. It lies on an area of wetland. The site consists of flat grassland with some vegetation and man-made structures such as transmission lines. utilityscale windfarm to be developed. at no more than 1 km is a large substation. 1½km from the current edge of Southward sprawl of residential areas. The flight path into and out of the airport is SW-NE and therefore not over the proposed site. a larger are of land may be available that would allow a much larger. having a greater environmental impact than a similar capacity of wind in another part of the country. in consultation with KazGydromet. will help to reduce the overall emissions of greenhouse gases for the power sector in Kazakhstan and will make a very visible statement about the commitment of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan to environmental improvement and sustainability. The inclusion of wind energy in the power supply to this city will displace almost entirely coal-fired power. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The city of Astana is developing and expanding at a rate that is challenging for the supply of power. single storey buildings and medium height trees within visible distance. Existing power supplies from the coal fired power stations of Central and Northern Kazakhstan are already stretched and in the coming years additional supplies of power will be necessary. The City Airport lies 16km to the South East of the site.

1-14 Photograph of the Astana monitoring tower facing south east (taken by PB staff during tower installation) -4- . WIND POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT 3. Fig.3. Pressure was recorded at a height of 4 mAGL.1 Wind Monitoring Equipment The Astana monitoring tower is a 50 m tubular tower with anemometers located at heights of 51. Temperature was recorded at this site at heights of 22 and 5 mAGL. The image of the Astana monitoring tower is shown below. 49 and 22 mAGL and wind vanes located at heights of 49 and 22 mAGL.

The instrument configuration at the Astana monitoring tower generally conforms to relevant IEA/IEC standards.2 Tower Data Analysis A summary of wind data statistics for this site (including the shelter corrected wind speeds) is given in Table 1-10.A summary of the tower location. and instrument configuration on the Astana monitoring tower. minimum and standard deviation (linked to turbulence) information is only able to be recorded for one instrument by this logger type. Table 1-10 Wind data statistics for the Astana monitoring tower * Note that maximum (gust). Table 1-9 Sensor information for the Astana monitoring tower 3. -5- . is presented in Table 1-9 below.

Fig. 1-17 Wind speed distribution and Weibull parameters at 51 m for the Astana monitoring tower The above 51 m wind speed distribution and the best-fit Weibull curve shown that the wind speed distribution may be due to the 78% availability of wind speed data at this tower.The distribution of the wind speed and the Weibull parameters at 51 m for this site are presented in the Fig.1-18 Wind direction (left) and energy distributions (right) at 51 m for the Astana monitoring tower The wind direction and energy roses. 1-17 below. as recorded at 51 m. The direction distribution shows a wind direction pattern with the majority of winds from the south-west. are presented in Fig.1-18. The energy distribution indicates that the significant majority of the energy comes from south-westerly direction. The Fig. -6- .

so to minimize this effect. 1-19 displays a pattern of higher than average wind speeds during the winter and spring months (December to May) and lower than average wind speeds during the summer and autumn (June to November) at the site.3 Long-term Correlation A correlation between NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) wind data and the Astana monitoring tower data was conducted in order to determine the strength of the relationship between these two datasets. The results of the correlation are presented in Table 1-13. On shorter timescales. and predict a long-term wind speed for the Astana site. Table 1-13 Results of the correlation between the NCAR wind data and the Astana monitoring tower (both daily averaged datasets) -7- . This seasonal pattern has been calculated from only 12 months of data hence the long-term pattern may differ slightly from what is presented above. due to anemometer icing. The colder months in general had poor recovery rates compared to the warmer months. and due to the fact that only six-hourly NCAR data is available. the correlation was performed using daily averages of the available data. 3. Note that the data recovery rate was only 31% during January and 18% during March so the averages presented here for these months may not be indicative of the actual monthly average.The Figure 1-19 Monthly average wind speeds for the 50 m level The seasonal wind speed pattern presented in Fig. natural variation of wind speeds may occur between sites separated by such a distance.

as part of this report. Terrain Data: Digital map of terrain for the region surrounding the Astana monitoring tower location was provided by UNDP with terrain contours in 10 m intervals.1. -8- . Turbine Selection “PB Power” believes the Vestas NM82 wind turbine is a suitable selection in providing an indicative energy yield for the Astana wind farm. which is considered suitable for farmland with scattered vegetation. implying that the NCAR data is suitable for use in the analysis.1 Climate and Topographic Data “PB Power” has undertaken.1. and in some cases pressure information was recorded at the Astana monitoring tower. “PB Power” determined a roughness length value of 0. Table 1-14 Long term on-site wind speed at the Astana site at 51.197 kg/m3. 4. The 10-minute average is considered more representative for this site hence the correction for this difference produced the following long-term on-site wind speed. The air density for Astana at hub-height is 1. The hub height used for the assessment is 80. Average Air Density: Temperature. ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENT 4.2. “PB Power” estimated the roughness of the terrain using aerial and land-based site photos. The rated power of this turbine is 1650 kW.1 Wind Flow Model 4. As the data availability of the on-site monitoring tower was less than 100%. The following climate and topographical input data were used in the modeling: Wind Data: Wind data from the Astana monitoring tower extrapolated to the proposed hub-height of 80m. the average of the daily-averaged dataset was different to the mean value of the 10-minute averaged dataset.The results of the correlation show a reasonably strong correlation between the on-site monitored data and the data from NCAR. The density calculated for the Astana site is considered the average hub-height air density applicable to all turbine locations.15 m 4. As terrain roughness information was not provided.03 m. driven by a rotor of 82 m in diameter. wind flow modeling analysis for the Astana site.

Wind Turbine Power Curve The power curve for the Vestas NM82 wind turbine used in the UNDP energy assessments has been extracted from an industry standard wind engineering software package.1. The power curve specified for an air density 1.3.197 kg/m3 is illustrated below: Power Curve 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wind Speed (m/s) -9- Power Output (kW) .4.

5 % 3% 3% Not included Not included Source Calculated by “PB Power” Opinion of “PB Power” Calculated by “PB Power” Estimated by “PB Power” Estimated by “PB Power” Estimated by “PB Power” - 4.2 to 2.1. “PB Power” generally expects a certain range of losses to apply to the various inputs to the energy calculations.2 Wind Farm Layout “PB Power” designed wind farm layout for the Astana site that provide an indicative energy yield for a 41 MW. The resultant wind farm layout consisted of 25 turbines arranged in a 5X5 grid. .5 % Minimum impact but included in energy calculation 0. Item Wake losses Power curve degradation Turbine shutdown hysteresis WTG miscellaneous loss On-site electrical losses Long-term WTG availability loss Off-site electrical losses Grid outage loss Loss Site dependent (see Sections 2.e.4 Wind Farm Losses The energy losses noted below are subtracted progressively from the gross energy yield to arrive at the net energy yield. with inter-turbine spacing at six rotor diameters.10 .9) 0. The table below indicates how the losses were derived (i. estimated/calculated and by whom).4.

3 Summary of Energy Yield Results Table 2-4 below presents a summary of the energy calculations performed on the Astana wind farm for the proposed layout.Map of the Astana turbine layout and surrounding area 4.11 . .

equivalent to the performance of many European wind farms. All costs predicted to rise evenly throughout the project by 5% per annum.25m/MW This price is predicted based on the internet research throughout European market for June. At this income.12 .5. This is likely to be a conservative analysis as the inflationary pressures on power prices are likely to be higher than those on operations and maintenance. Cost assumptions used in the compilation of this simple model include: Item Capital Cost Value Source €1. COMMERCIAL MODELING and ASSUMPTIONS A rough modeling exercise with these figures shows that under these circumstances a total income per kWh paid to the generator of 10. European Industry average.7 KZT will produce a project IRR of about 12%. which is equivalent to returns for many windfarm projects in Europe. Taxation as included in the tender documents for Djungar Gates. issued by UNDP 2005. It is the responsibility of the owner and operator of the windfarm to negotiation a long term power purchase agreement with clear and secure indexation. . the simple payback period for the wind farm will be between 9 and 10 year. The installation of the equipment is included in this price. Operations and €9/MWh Maintenance Indexation of All 5% Costs Taxation Regime The project is modeled to estimate the power price necessary to achieve an Internal Rate of Return on the full capital employed of 12%. and using these assumptions. 2008.

9% .Variable Value Unit Power & Capital Start year Design life End of project Total installed capacity Net annual power production for site Capital expenditure 2009 20 2029 Year Years Year MW MWh / year 41 115 627 51.13 .250.000 Power Sale Price Operation & Maintenance/MWh Operation overheads Land owner royalty € Power Sale Price Operation & Maintenance/MWh Operation overheads Land owner royalty Operational Revenues Power Sale Price Operation & Maintenance/MWh Operation overheads Land owner royalty Tax Corporate Tax Property Tax Land Tax Tax Holiday (years) Indexation of Costs Corporate Tax Property Tax Land Tax Tax Holiday (years) Indexation of Costs Corporate Tax Property Tax Land Tax Tax Holiday (years) Indexation of Costs Exchange Rates KZT/$ KZT/€ KZT/£ 121 185 244 Results Project IRR 11.

Site Data Collection and Investigation Seismic Data Astana is not a zone of any significant seismic activity and therefore no further studies have been carried out into the effect of earthquakes on any wind turbines. 7. A connection to this line will be a physical possibility but studies must be carried out on the suitability of the lone to take the variable supply from any future windfarm and from the quality of the power supplied by whatever turbines are installed. . Figure 1 . The land was seen to be mostly hard clay.14 - . 5km to the North is the city. Grid Connection The site lies adjacent to a large substation and a 110kV transmission line. The city will continue to expand for some time in accordance with Government policy to develop Astana as the Capital of Kazakhstan and therefore the advance of development towards the site must be considered to be a threat to the operation of a windfarm. The site is protected to some extent by the poor quality of the ground between it and the city development however we recommend that discussions are held with the City Akimat over the imposition of a buffer between any potential windfarm and the edge of permitted building. Geotechnical Report Rough data published on maps of the area state that the site is on an area of. which continues to be under construction with medium and high-rise apartment blocks being built in the region closest to the selected site.6. clayey. loamy soil with occasional salt deposits. confirmed. Digging to a depth of 1.Ground Conditions Astana A detailed geotechnical study must be commissioned at part of a detailed study before any development. difficult to dig.5m when erecting the meteorological mast. Topographic Data The site selected is particularly flat with no hills in any direction for many miles.

the Russian Federation and to Europe.15 - . The road network from Astana links to the North to the Russian Federation and on to the West. rail and air links. The rail network is also well established with direct links to China.Figure 2 . . The main rail line through the city passes within 16 km of the site and local roads link the site to many sidings that could be used for the offloading of turbines and components. Transportation Study Astana has a well-developed transport network with good road. In general the site may be supplied by turbines. On selection of turbines a detailed survey of local transport infrastructure will be necessary. to the South to Almaty Oblast and from there East to China.Substation adjacent to Astana site 8. towers and balance of plant from Europe. China and Russia without apparent difficulty.

In addition.16 - . Turbines positioned close to residential areas have an impact on the quality of life of those living there and care must be taken to limit this impact to an acceptable level. The spread of Astana has been rapid in recent years and further development of the residential area to the South West could pose a threat to the development of a windfarm.Figure 3 . The context of much of this work for the Astana site is the proximity of the city of Astana.Astana Area marked with site and airport 9. Encroachment of buildings can affect the wind resource available to generate electricity by changing the roughness of the ground around the chosen site. increasing shear and reducing the windspeed. residential areas close to an operating windfarm are a constraint to development. . Environmental and Social Impact Assessment It is a requirement in Kazakhstan that any project developer should consider an Environmental Impact Assessment. Any EIA will require an initial scoping study to identify areas of concern for further detailed analysis. It is recommended that the City Akimat is consulted over the priorities for development within a reasonable buffer around this site. The developer must check the details of the legislation to see whether any proposed windfarm development is covered by the requirements.

03-06-2002 “Construction industry.03-05-2001) . Instructions for performing measurements.HSE in construction (State Standard 1. approval and contents of design estimates for the construction of buildings (State Standard 2. We judge that in this case the sources are likely to include: Air traffic control radar and radio transmissions located at the airport Military radar and transmissions Mobile telephone transmission masts located around Astana Television relay stations 10. Organization of construction of enterprises and buildings. Television. Electromagnetic Interferences. (State Standard 26433. Issued by the officials of state architectural inspection” Other standard regulations: . If the residential areas of Astana continue to encroach on the site it will be necessary to assess the impact of this noise and to agree with the Akimat an acceptable level for residents so that a minimum separation between turbines and houses can be agreed.2-1-2001) . The following fundamental permits are required for the construction of wind farm: 1) Decision of local authorities to provide a land according to the governmental regulation of Kazakhstan effective 6th May. mobile communications It is usual in cases such as this that all sources of Electromagnetic transmission near to the site are identified and studies. noise from the motion of the blade tips and loss of visual amenity are all common reasons for complaint by residents in the West.17 - . Radar. confirmation. Approvals. Studies of migrating birds should be completed to identify any possible concerns for the welfare of species Turbine noise and visual impacts. The sound of the tips of the blades cutting through the air causes a low-frequency sound that is perceptible up to 500m away at medium windspeeds. Taxes and Levies The permits for construction of industrial facilities are regulated by the legislation of Republic of Kazakhstan.System of providing the precision of geometric parameters in construction. “Policy of registration and issue of raw materials for construction design” 2) Permit for implementation of building and assembly jobs in compliance with СНиП РК 1.A scoping study will identify possible problems for future analysis and should include: Flora and fauna Studies of plant life and animals found living on the site must be carried out. radio. Identification of Required Permits.0-85) . Flicker from the shadows of the blades falling across buildings. including sun shadow flicker Turbine noise is a concern generally in residential areas. 2008.Instruction about the rules of project design. No: 425.

. An understanding must be reached with the city authorities about a buffer between any wind generation project and the limit of development of the city in that direction. the access routes are clear and present few difficulties. It would be better to confirm selection of site for the wind farm location with the Astana authorities. Conclusion The site selected at Astana is suitable for the development of a windfarm. The windspeeds are suitable for the operation of turbines.18 - . While this site is appropriate for the development of wind generation. In addition some doubts exist over the site because of the pressure on the land from the continued development of the city of Astana. the flat topography means that some other sites around Astana will be equally appropriate. As with any windfarm in Kazakhstan the price to be paid for power to the generator must be sufficient for the financing of such a project and be secure for the long term. a grid connection for the dispatch of power is readily available and the site presents few difficulties for the construction of a windfarm.11.

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