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South Africa GDP 3Q2015

by Eduardo Petazze
The real GDP at market prices increased by 1,01% YoY (+0.17% QoQ) in the 3er quarter 2015
By 2015 GDP growth is estimated at 1.4%, from +1.5% in 2014
Statistics South Africa released GDP data for Q3 2015 pdf, 18 pages
The following is a summary, including our estimate for the remainder of 2015 and 2016

Annual gross domestic product by industry at constant 2010 prices (R million)


(2010) R
million,
NSA
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YoY
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Latest data
Own estimate

Agri
65,605
66,464
66,861
67,880
71,659
66,354
62,928
Agri
-0.30%
1.31%
0.60%
1.53%
5.57%
-7.40%
-5.16%

Mining
230,350
228,645
221,972
230,908
227,260
234,543
237,712
Mining
5.26%
-0.74%
-2.92%
4.03%
-1.58%
3.20%
1.35%

Mfg
358,699
369,261
376,126
378,933
379,089
380,339
381,710
Mfg
5.91%
2.94%
1.86%
0.75%
0.04%
0.33%
0.36%

Electr.
67,940
68,879
68,801
68,375
67,765
67,829
67,219
Electr.
2.42%
1.38%
-0.11%
-0.62%
-0.89%
0.09%
-0.90%

Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
95,453
370,581
229,499
523,526
404,647
148,561
95,809
384,768
236,439
544,997
422,695
152,163
97,804
398,585
242,233
561,079
437,734
155,295
100,468
405,983
247,062
578,127
451,214
158,167
103,358
411,083
252,648
591,019
464,911
160,411
105,464
416,255
256,655
607,869
469,685
162,272
107,726
421,425
260,984
623,705
476,635
164,195
Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
0.73%
4.43%
1.68%
1.24%
2.72%
0.37%
0.37%
3.83%
3.02%
4.10%
4.46%
2.42%
2.08%
3.59%
2.45%
2.95%
3.56%
2.06%
2.72%
1.86%
1.99%
3.04%
3.08%
1.85%
2.88%
1.26%
2.26%
2.23%
3.04%
1.42%
2.04%
1.26%
1.59%
2.85%
1.03%
1.16%
2.15%
1.24%
1.69%
2.61%
1.48%
1.19%
Constr.

GVA
2,494,860
2,570,121
2,626,489
2,687,117
2,729,203
2,767,265
2,804,238
GVA
2.92%
3.02%
2.19%
2.31%
1.57%
1.39%
1.34%

Taxes
253,148
266,166
272,758
276,272
279,373
284,235
288,604
Taxes
4.22%
5.14%
2.48%
1.29%
1.12%
1.74%
1.54%

GDP
2,748,008
2,836,287
2,899,247
2,963,389
3,008,576
3,051,500
3,092,842
GDP
3.04%
3.21%
2.22%
2.21%
1.52%
1.43%
1.35%

Quarterly gross domestic product by industry at constant 2010 prices (R million) Gross data
(2010) R
million,
NSA
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
YoY
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Latest data
Own estimate

Agri
14,903
26,202
19,400
11,154
15,930
23,876
16,257
10,293
14,614
23,301
15,748
9,265
Agri
-2.21%
6.47%
11.94%
4.24%
6.89%
-8.88%
-16.20%
-7.72%
-8.26%
-2.41%
-3.13%
-9.98%

Mining
53,992
56,852
56,387
60,029
57,397
59,772
57,173
60,201
57,054
60,668
58,939
61,051
Mining
-1.25%
-0.79%
-2.64%
-1.62%
6.31%
5.13%
1.39%
0.29%
-0.60%
1.50%
3.09%
1.41%

Mfg
90,469
93,384
95,624
99,613
90,848
92,870
96,928
99,693
91,125
94,023
97,009
99,552
Mfg
1.85%
-1.52%
-0.30%
0.25%
0.42%
-0.55%
1.36%
0.08%
0.31%
1.24%
0.08%
-0.14%

Electr.
16,197
16,998
17,634
17,556
16,536
16,936
17,163
17,194
16,196
16,840
17,188
16,995
Electr.
0.86%
-0.49%
-0.82%
0.58%
2.09%
-0.37%
-2.67%
-2.07%
-2.06%
-0.57%
0.15%
-1.16%

Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
25,580
96,658
60,215
146,869
114,973
40,074
25,558
97,136
61,995
146,927
116,138
40,592
25,635
100,449
64,829
147,963
116,595
40,476
26,585
116,840
65,608
149,260
117,205
39,269
26,160
98,117
61,679
150,686
116,841
40,498
26,174
98,216
62,974
151,295
117,112
41,111
26,076
101,675
65,514
152,576
117,221
40,870
27,054
118,247
66,488
153,312
118,511
39,792
26,701
99,166
62,649
154,599
118,753
41,010
26,728
99,706
64,111
155,206
119,022
41,580
26,706
102,844
66,758
156,463
119,016
41,356
27,591
119,708
67,466
157,437
119,843
40,250
Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
3.15%
1.76%
1.75%
2.75%
3.14%
1.72%
2.75%
0.81%
2.43%
1.99%
3.38%
1.34%
2.72%
1.52%
2.25%
2.18%
3.19%
1.43%
2.89%
0.98%
2.59%
2.01%
2.45%
1.20%
2.27%
1.51%
2.43%
2.60%
1.62%
1.06%
2.41%
1.11%
1.58%
2.97%
0.84%
1.28%
1.72%
1.22%
1.06%
3.12%
0.54%
0.97%
1.76%
1.20%
1.34%
2.71%
1.11%
1.33%
2.07%
1.07%
1.57%
2.60%
1.64%
1.26%
2.12%
1.52%
1.81%
2.58%
1.63%
1.14%
2.42%
1.15%
1.90%
2.55%
1.53%
1.19%
1.99%
1.23%
1.47%
2.69%
1.12%
1.15%

GVA
659,930
681,783
684,991
703,119
674,692
690,335
691,454
710,784
681,868
701,185
702,028
719,157
GVA
1.91%
1.45%
1.64%
1.38%
2.24%
1.25%
0.94%
1.09%
1.06%
1.57%
1.53%
1.18%

Taxes
67,986
68,600
70,208
72,666
69,153
70,173
71,356
73,553
70,047
71,258
72,641
74,658
Taxes
1.87%
0.16%
1.32%
1.28%
1.72%
2.29%
1.64%
1.22%
1.29%
1.55%
1.80%
1.50%

GDP
727,916
750,383
755,199
775,785
743,845
760,508
762,810
784,337
751,915
772,443
774,669
793,815
GDP
1.90%
1.33%
1.61%
1.37%
2.19%
1.35%
1.01%
1.10%
1.08%
1.57%
1.55%
1.21%

Seasonally adjusted and annualised quarterly gross domestic product by industry at constant 2010 prices (R million)
(2010) R
million,
SAAR
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
QoQ
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
Latest data
Own estimate

Agri
69,794
70,757
72,380
73,705
70,144
66,401
64,197
64,675
66,171
Agri
1.18%
1.38%
2.29%
1.83%
-4.83%
-5.34%
-3.32%
0.74%
2.31%

Mining
225,453
223,727
225,875
233,985
239,744
235,811
229,796
232,821
238,094
Mining
-6.28%
-0.77%
0.96%
3.59%
2.46%
-1.64%
-2.55%
1.32%
2.26%

Mfg
380,286
376,429
375,514
384,126
381,820
375,681
381,381
382,473
382,677
Mfg
-1.63%
-1.01%
-0.24%
2.29%
-0.60%
-1.61%
1.52%
0.29%
0.05%

Electr.
67,939
68,275
68,402
68,924
69,343
68,005
66,603
67,367
68,042
Electr.
0.10%
0.49%
0.19%
0.76%
0.61%
-1.93%
-2.06%
1.15%
1.00%

Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
102,444
409,632
249,719
586,677
459,992
159,624
102,984
409,376
252,096
588,411
464,452
160,220
103,550
412,821
253,493
591,922
466,930
160,736
104,454
412,503
255,283
597,066
468,270
161,064
104,985
415,278
256,027
601,972
467,364
161,438
105,200
414,616
256,125
605,914
468,073
161,968
105,331
417,139
256,210
610,118
469,487
162,640
106,339
417,989
258,259
613,471
473,814
163,041
107,027
420,181
259,896
617,392
475,082
163,429
Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
0.91%
0.38%
0.35%
0.34%
0.58%
0.37%
0.53%
-0.06%
0.95%
0.30%
0.97%
0.37%
0.55%
0.84%
0.55%
0.60%
0.53%
0.32%
0.87%
-0.08%
0.71%
0.87%
0.29%
0.20%
0.51%
0.67%
0.29%
0.82%
-0.19%
0.23%
0.20%
-0.16%
0.04%
0.65%
0.15%
0.33%
0.12%
0.61%
0.03%
0.69%
0.30%
0.41%
0.96%
0.20%
0.80%
0.55%
0.92%
0.25%
0.65%
0.52%
0.63%
0.64%
0.27%
0.24%
Constr.

GVA
2,711,561
2,716,727
2,731,625
2,759,381
2,768,115
2,757,795
2,762,902
2,780,248
2,797,992
GVA
-0.44%
0.19%
0.55%
1.02%
0.32%
-0.37%
0.19%
0.63%
0.64%

Taxes
279,098
277,912
278,876
281,954
283,506
283,894
283,905
285,634
287,362
Taxes
0.13%
-0.42%
0.35%
1.10%
0.55%
0.14%
0.00%
0.61%
0.60%

GDP
2,990,659
2,994,639
3,010,501
3,041,335
3,051,621
3,041,689
3,046,807
3,065,882
3,085,354
GDP
-0.39%
0.13%
0.53%
1.02%
0.34%
-0.33%
0.17%
0.63%
0.64%