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PRESS NOTE ON

QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14

CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE
MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Dated the 8 Agrahayana, 1935 Saka 29 November, 2013 PRESS NOTE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (JulySeptember) Q2 of 2013-14, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The details of the estimates are presented below. I (a) ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY At constant (2004-05) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2013-14 is estimated at ` 13.68 lakh crore as against ` 13.05 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.8 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. 3. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2011-12 are ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing‘ at 4.6 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 7.7 per cent ‘construction’ at 4.3 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.0 per cent and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 4.2 per cent. The growth rates in ‘mining and quarrying’ is estimated at (-)0.4 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 1.0 per cent, and ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 4.0 per cent in this period.

Agriculture
4. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2013-14 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 25.9.2013, production of coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds are expected to grow by 4.9%, 1.9% and 14.9% respectively during the Kharif season of 2013-14 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2012-13. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the estimated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries.

Industry
5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 0.1 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 8.4 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 5.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14.

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Services
6. Among the services sectors, key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 3.7 per cent and (-) 2.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2013-14. In the transport sector, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-)22.1 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 0.4 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2012-13. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 12.0 per cent, and 15.4 per cent, respectively as on September 2013-14. (b) At current prices

7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2013-14, is estimated at ` 25.05 lakh crore, as against `22.28 lakh crore in Q2, 2012-13, showing an increase of 12.4 per cent. 8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, inland fish, machinery & machine tools, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 16.3 per cent, 35.8 per cent, 2.0 percent, 2.2 per cent, 13.0 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2013-14, over Q2 of 2012-13. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 10.9 per cent during Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13. II ESTIMATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES

9. GDP at current market prices in Q2 of 2013-14, is estimated at ` 26.19 lakh crore, as against `23.17 lakh crore in Q2, 2012-13, showing an increase of 13.0 per cent. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the GDP at market prices is estimated at ` 14.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 13.54 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13 showing an increase of 5.6 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. There has been a decline in the growth of major subsidies from 97.9 percent in Q2 of 2012-13 to (-) 10.5 percent in Q2 of 2013-14. Further, the indirect tax revenue of the central government including customs, excise and service tax has shown a growth of 6.1 percent in Q2 of 2013-14 over Q2 of 2012-13.

III

ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

10. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices. Private Final Consumption Expenditure 11. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `14.83 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 13.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ` 8.55 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 8.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 56.6 per cent and 59.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.2 per cent and 61.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.

3 Government Final Consumption Expenditure 12. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 2.89 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 2.66 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at ` 1.47 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 1.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 11.0 per cent and 10.3 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13. Gross Fixed Capital Formation 13. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at ` 7.71 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 7.16 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at ` 4.81 lakh crore in Q2 of 2013-14 as against ` 4.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2013-14 are estimated at 29.4 per cent and 33.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.9 per cent and 34.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13. 14. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (200405) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8. 15. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2013 (Q3 of 2013-14) will be on 28.02.2014.

4 STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP AT FACTOR COST IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at 2004-05 prices)

(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product 2011-12 Industry 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and personal services GDP at factor cost Q1 171966 Q2 138987 2012-13 Q1 176888 Q2 141334 2013-14 Q1 181705 Q2 147874 Q1 2.9

Percentage change over previous year 2012-13 Q2 1.7 2013-14 Q1 2.7 Q2 4.6

26205 203349 24508

23942 199873 24599

26302 201230 26018

24345 200001 25386

25568 198827 26978

24245 202027 27348

0.4 -1.0 6.2

1.7 0.1 3.2

-2.8 -1.2 3.7

-0.4 1.0 7.7

98410 348903

99167 346452

105340 370197

102267 369996

108266 384567

106651 384950

7.0 6.1

3.1 6.8

2.8 3.9

4.3 4.0

229638 144517

234460 173628

250955 157324

253996 188204

273388 172149

279310 196189

9.3 8.9

8.3 8.4

8.9 9.4

10.0 4.2

1247496

1241106

1314255

1305531

1371446

1368594

5.4

5.2

4.4

4.8

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at 2004-05 prices)

(Rs. in crore) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2011-12 Item 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. Change in Stocks 5. Valuables 6. Exports 7. Less Imports 8. Discrepancies GDP at market prices Q1 802762 Q2 808519 2012-13 Q1 837195 Q2 837130 2013-14 Q1 850767 Q2 855220

RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) 2012-13 Q1 61.1 Q2 61.8 2013-14 Q1 60.6 Q2 59.8

140749

139196

150860

148796

166679

147122

11.0

11.0

11.9

10.3

473501 31787 36769 321392 444398 -37358 1325207

463217 31244 28172 324921 447373 -27242 1320654

462929 53966 29082 360707 492000 -32526 1370214

468381 53637 29386 341223 489899 -35023 1353630

457459 53734 55995 356406 495604 -42003 1403432

480643 54884 36404 396859 491814 -49252 1430067

33.8 3.9 2.1 26.3 35.9 -2.4 100.0

34.6 4.0 2.2 25.2 36.2 -2.6 100.0

32.6 3.8 4.0 25.4 35.3 -3.0 100.0

33.6 3.8 2.5 27.8 34.4 -3.4 100.0

5 STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP AT FACTOR COST IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at current prices)

(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product 2011-12 Industry 2012-13 Q2 274539 43139 289720 35609 163548 504993 340887 299609 1952044 Q1 379221 52328 304505 40493 183795 575245 388305 287826 2211719 Q2 307017 48933 308004 42831 181987 586998 399432 353086 2228289 2013-14 Q1 421768 50144 310463 51413 197872 625323 443877 337038 2437898 Q2 370600 49632 317816 52117 201463 647018 468550 398053 2505249 Q1 332489 46169 292216 35123 159614 506681 330340 243460 1946092

Percentage change over previous year 2012-13 Q1 14.1 13.3 4.2 15.3 15.2 13.5 17.5 18.2 13.6 Q2 11.8 13.4 6.3 20.3 11.3 16.2 17.2 17.8 14.2 2013-14 Q1 11.2 -4.2 2.0 27.0 7.7 8.7 14.3 17.1 10.2 Q2 20.7 1.4 3.2 21.7 10.7 10.2 17.3 12.7 12.4

1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social & personal services GDP at factor cost

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at current prices)

(Rs. in crore) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product 2011-12 Item 2012-13 Q1 1305651 Q2 1348750 2013-14 Q1 1414970 Q2 1483400

RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%) 2012-13 Q1 56.4 Q2 58.2 2013-14 Q1 56.5 Q2 56.6

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. Change in Stocks 5. 6. 7. 8. Valuables Exports Less Imports Discrepancies

Q1 1155088

Q2 1200758

225611

228088

264592

266356

318700

288710

11.4

11.5

12.7

11.0

669938 46038 65602 487945 628650 45752 2067324

665953 45645 50678 497296 636580 26358 2078195

692121 84254 61922 591880 759389 74002 2315032

715649 85221 62568 565573 762160 35158 2317116

716946 88621 115171 618027 812330 43377 2503482

770570 92684 72056 704493 820561 27333 2618684

29.9 3.6 2.7 25.6 32.8 3.2 100

30.9 3.7 2.7 24.4 32.9 1.5 100

28.6 3.5 4.6 24.7 32.4 1.7 100

29.4 3.5 2.8 26.9 31.3 1.0 100

GDP at market prices

6 STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GDP IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at 2004-05 prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Industry 1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and personal services GDP at factor cost Gross Domestic Product in H1 of 2011-12 310952 50146 403222 49107 197577 695354 464098 318145 2488602 2012-13 318222 50647 401231 51404 207608 740194 504952 345528 2619786 2013-14 329579 49813 400854 54326 214917 769516 552698 368338 2740040 Percentage change Over previous year H1 2012-13 2.3 1.0 -0.5 4.7 5.1 6.4 8.8 8.6 5.3 2013-14 3.6 -1.6 -0.1 5.7 3.5 4.0 9.5 6.6 4.6

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at 2004-05 prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 2011-12 1611281 279945 936718 63032 64941 646313 891770 -64600 2645861 2012-13 1674325 299656 931311 107603 58468 701930 981900 -67549 2723844 2013-14 1705987 313801 938102 108618 92399 753264 987418 -91254 2833499 Rates of GDP at market prices (%) in H1 2012-13 61.5 11.0 34.2 4.0 2.1 25.8 36.0 -2.5 100 2013-14 60.2 11.1 33.1 3.8 3.3 26.6 34.8 -3.2 100

Item 1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Change in Stocks Valuables Exports Less Imports Discrepancies

GDP at market prices

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STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GDP IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at current prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Industry Gross Domestic Product in H1 of 2011-12 607028 89308 581936 70732 323161 1011674 671228 543069 3898136 2012-13 686238 101262 612509 83324 365783 1162243 787737 640912 4440007 2013-14 792368 99776 628279 103529 399336 1272341 912427 735091 4943147 Percentage change over previous year H1 2012-13 13.0 13.4 5.3 17.8 13.2 14.9 17.4 18.0 13.9 2013-14 15.5 -1.5 2.6 24.2 9.2 9.5 15.8 14.7 11.3

1. agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. mining and quarrying 3. manufacturing 4. electricity, gas and water supply 5. construction 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 7. financing, ins., real est. and business services 8. community, social and personal services GDP at factor cost

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2013-14 (at current prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1) (Rs. in crore) Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 2011-12 2355846 453699 2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Change in Stocks Valuables Exports Less Imports Discrepancies GDP at market prices
H1: April- September

Rates of GDP at market prices (%) in H1 2012-13 57.3 11.5 2013-14 56.6 11.9

Item

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

2012-13 2654401 530949

2013-14 2898371 607411

1335891 91683 116280 985241 1265230 72109 4145518

1407770 169475 124491 1157453 1521549 109159 4632148

1487515 181305 187227 1322519 1632892 70710 5122166

30.4 3.7 2.7 25.0 32.8 2.4 100

29.0 3.5 3.7 25.8 31.9 1.4 100