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ANALYSING The tracking phase often leaves the group with a number of separate trends covering a lot of different

areas. But the trends are not as disconnected as they seem at first glance. When you look at the descriptions you often find that some trends recur as driving forces or consequences to other trends. You begin to see some patterns. Some of the identified trends may also be difficult to predict. Will they go one way ar another? Will the development be slow or fast? The further the time horizon is, the more questions normally arise. The analysing phase is about identifying drivers and consequences in order to understand how the identified trends interact. If it has not already been done, it may be fruitful to carry out a player analysis in this phase, to identify conceivable actions from other players that will affect the system. All this will give the deeper understanding that is necessary for identifying the uncertainties that the scenarios will be based upon. In order to make the description of the analysing process more tangible we will use an example concerning combatting and preventing crime. The public prosecutors office, the police and the crime prevention council of Sweden wanted to understand more deeply the logic of the future crime arena. It was obvious to them that major changes would be produced by changes in the environment, and that these would have an impact on the overall strategies for crime prevention in the country. One major trigger to start the scenario analysis was that, with a great number of employees getting on for retirement age, it was necessary to know what kind of competences would be particularly needed in the future. The project was carried out by three scenario planners who took on the task along with five people from the three authorities. Four of the practitioners had a wide and deep experience, and the fifth was a person doing research into the subject. The group worked together for eight consecutive days. When we entered the process the group had identified almost 100 trends and reduced them to a total of 18. Half of the trends were comprehensive and concerned driving forces in the world outside the arena. The other half were trends that had been observed in the arena. The list of trends is shown in figure 3.5. The project team tried to verify all trends through statistics and other sources. Two of the trends that had been identified by representatives from the police were impossible to verify. One of them was increased consumption of alcohol; there was no evidence whatsoever of increased sale, smuggling or illicit distilling. The group decided to keep the trend anyhow as the members of the project team representing the police were very convinced. They had seen lots of examples of it the field over the last year.

Summary of trends for the future of crime There is increased internationalization. The European Union is getting more important Values are more individualized People are becoming less willing to tolerate risk Society is increasingly divided IT is getting better and more widespread Fewer adults live as stable couples Urbanization is increasing Funding of public welfare is decreasing The market for security products and services is increasing There is increasing consumption of alcohol There is greater liberalism about drugs More crimes have an international aspect There is increased media focus on crime and punishment There are more opportunities to commit crime IT related crimes have increased Social constraints on active offenders have become less effective During the night the city becomes a lawless zone.

Figure 3.5. Example of trends identified in a project concerning the future of crime

It is interesting that, a year after the scenario planning took place, statistical evidence came up which confirmed what the police officers had said. The same was true of the concept that during the night the city becomes a lawless zone; for this too a lot of evidence was uncovered over the following year. Analysis of the interrelationships between the trends If you want a deeper understanding of the future, it is not enough to look at the trends separately. It is when you dig deeper into the system and understand what impact trends have on each other that it becomes possible to paint pictures of the future. In oder to get this deeper understanding, a cross impact analysis was carried out. A cross impact analysis is a method for identifying interrelationships. Here the impact of each trend on every other trend is graded. (see Methods for a more detailed description of this). In order to get an overview of the system a causal loop diagram was drawn (figure 3.6). the most dominant driving trends were put at the top and the most dependent at the bottom of the diagram. Arrows mark the direction of dependency. The shaded backgrounds

show groups of trends that have much in common. (see Methods for a deeper description of the causal loop diagram). The first and natural reaction when looking at a causal loop diagram is confusion, but if you take some time to follow the arrows and identify the different relations, a deeper understanding will slowly emerge. In this diagram some things are obvious. The first impression might be the complexity of the relations between different trends, but a closer look will show interesting connections. Some of the most important driving forces are in the areas of internalization and IT. For example we can see that trends in these areas will accelerate the internationalization of crime. More use of alcohol, which in Sweden is very much driven by more continental drinking habits, in combination with socioeconomic trends like movements to the big cities where there is less social control and fewer people living in stable relationships, will increase the likelihood of crime. An interesting finding was that companies that provide security oriented products and services will most probably be profitable. Knowledge of this could be of benefit for enterprises in security field. We have recently seen a rise in the stock market valuation of such enterprises.