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Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market Overview Dubai

Q3 2013

Market highlights Q3 2013


The third quarter of 2013 saw the continued recovery of the prime residential The residential sales market witnessed 5% price growth during Q3 2013 market, while the retail, hospitality and prime office sectors all remained (prime product in Investment Areas), following on from a similar (5%) growth relatively stable and poised for future recovery. during Q2 and 8% growth during Q1. The residential market recovery remains restricted to prime locations, with Prime residential rents remained unchanged at AED 130,000 (average rent secondary sub-sectors continuing to decline. for 2 bedroom apartment) in Q3, while secondary residential rents continued to fall. Despite the market-wide over supply in most sectors, there remains a shortage of high quality stock. This is driving product differentiation and Retail stock increased by approximately 112,000 sqm of GLA this quarter, creating two-tier performance, between high grade and low grade property. with the delivery of The Collection at the St.Regis on Saadiyat Island, the Galleria at Sowwah Square on Al Maryah Island and Deerfields Townsquare Short-term demand will be fuelled by progress on major new projects (such as in Al Bahia. the Airport expansion, Etihad Rail, the Saadiyat Island museums and other major infrastructure, economic and social development initiatives). A further 143,000 sqm of retail GLA is scheduled for handover in the last quarter of 2013, although some of these projects are likely to delayed into Long-term market recovery will be dependent on the governments ongoing 2014. initiatives to diversify the economy and generate sustainable demand growth. The hotel sector continues to witness new supply with the St.Regis hotel at A sustainable recovery also requires the government to implement further Nation Towers delivering around 300 new keys this quarter. supply controls, as a key trend during 2013 has been developers re-looking at schemes that had been placed on hold following the market downturn. The hotel market is approaching the bottom, with occupancies increasing to 64% (year to August), and RevPAR up by 9% compared to 2012. Although There were no major completions in the office market with rents remaining ADRs are still under pressure, the hotel market has also benefited from a unchanged for both Grade A and B space during Q3 2013. Significant slow down in new supply. additions to supply are expected in Q4 that will continue to place downward pressure on rents for secondary space. Residential stock increased by around 2,700 units in Q3. Additions to supply included buildings within Rawdhat and Danet on Airport Road, Mangrove Place on Reem Island, the Khor Al Raha apartments by ADNIC at Al Raha Beach, Al Reef Downtown in Al Reef and additional units within Aldars Al Falah scheme.

Talking points Q3 2013


The Abu Dhabi Executive Council has approved housing loans and infrastructure projects worth AED 15.8 billion, with AED 3.1 billion of this total being allocated as housing loans to 1,554 Emirate families. The Government has adjusted its policy of reducing commuting from Dubai by allowing government employees to request exemptions. According to the General Secretariat of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, special cases will be considered with decisions made on a case by case basis. TDIC has invited contractors to pre-qualify for the main contract to build the Guggenheim museum. Arabtec, the contractor building the Louvre museum, has announced its intention to also bid for the Guggenheim project. Also in the hospitality sector, Jannah Hotels and Resorts, a UAEbased management company, has been appointed to operate TDICs Eastern Mangroves Suites, comprising 88 serviced apartments. Etihad Rail announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Bertschi, a leading Switzerland-based logistics company specialising in liquid and dry bulk products for the chemical industry. The MoU will enable Bertschi to use the rail network to transport equipment and products

Drake & Scull has been awarded a AED 415 million contract for the mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) work for the Louvre museum.
TDIC has also announced the sale of a 91,000 sqm land plot on Saadiyat Island to Bin Otaiba Investment Group for the development of a five-star luxury resort. The project comprises 366 hotel rooms and beach villas, scheduled for completion in late 2015.

Abu Dhabi is seeking to attract more telecommunication companies through an agreement with the Telecommunication Regulatory Authority to streamline the procedure for gaining commercial licences.
The new financial freezone at Al Maryah Island known as Abu Dhabi Global Marketplace has continued to develop its legal framework to provide an enhanced regulatory regime, comparable with other major global financial hubs.

Abu Dhabi has become the worlds first city to house two St. Regis hotels, with the opening of its new property at Nation Towers on the Corniche in Q3.

Abu Dhabi prime rental clock


Q3 2012

Q3 2013

Rental Growth Slowing

Rents Falling

Rental Growth Slowing

Rents Falling

Rental Growth Accelerating

Rents Bottoming Out

Rental Growth Accelerating

Rents Bottoming Out

Retail

Residential

Office

Hotel *

*Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR. Note: The property clock illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimates each prime market is within its individual rental cycle as at end of the relevant quarter. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Abu Dhabi office market overview

Office supply
Abu Dhabis office stock remained unchanged with no major deliveries in Q3 2013. However, an additional 143,000 sqm of office GLA is expected to enter the market by the end of 2013. Several major projects are scheduled to be handed over before the year end, including Capital Tower at Capital Centre, the Landmark Tower on the Corniche and others potentially. However, it is possible that some of these projects will experience further delays due to a combination of construction overruns, contractual issues and delays in obtaining final development approvals.

Abu Dhabi Office Stock (2012 2015)


Completed Future Supply 314

As much as 967,000 sqm of office GLA could enter the market by the end of 2015, increasing the total office stock to approximately 3.9 million sqm. This new supply is primarily within masterplanned areas but also includes major corporate HQs such as ADNOC.
Leasing of the office buildings on Al Maryah Island within Sowwah Square are currently on hold while the freezone legislation is finalised.

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

510 143

GLA (In 000's)

2,877

2,953

3,096

3,606

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

Recent and near term office completions

ADIB HQ

Landmark Tower

World Trade Centre

Capital Tower Capital Centre

Awaiting handover

Office demand
Government-backed entities remain the principal source of demand. Many government organisations have committed to purpose built headquarters, with other major HQ buildings in the pipeline for banks and government-backed corporates such as ADIB HQ and ADNOC, whereas others have leased space in private developments such as Finance House at Capital Centre and Nation Towers on the Corniche.
There remains limited demand from the private sector, with most requirements for relatively small areas of between 300 sqm and 400 sqm. The lack of fitted out options in this size range is proving a real inhibitor to transactions. While there is limited demand from new entrants, many companies already located in Abu Dhabi are now moving to newer buildings. This flight to quality will place further pressure on secondary office buildings that will struggle with the oversupply of new office buildings and will consequently face declining rentals. Approximately 64% of current occupied office space is occupied by local companies, mostly financial firms and government related entities.
64%

Office Floor Space Occupied by Nationality

30%
International

Regional
Local

6%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

Office rental performance


Average net effective rents for Grade A office space have remained stable for the last five quarters at AED 1,540 per sqm. Average Grade B office rents have also remained stable this quarter at AED 1,200. With no new supply and limited net absorption, the vacancy rate has remained stable this quarter at 38%. Vacancies are expected to increase further over the next 12 months as handovers continue. A large portion of vacant space is now in recently completed buildings, which will attract tenants looking to upgrade. This will leave higher vacancies in older, poorly managed buildings. Rents and vacancy trends are expected to continue to diverge over the next 12 months, increasing the performance gap between prime and secondary buildings.

Tenants are clearly in a strong negotiating position, which is likely to strengthen even further as supply increases over the remainder of 2013. This dynamic is expected to drive secondary rents down even further, while Grade A rents appear to have stabilised.

Average Grade A Office Rents* (Q4 2008 Q3 2013)

4,000 Average Rents (AED/sqm) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000

3,800
3,190 3,000

2,800 2,800 2,500 2,200 2,200 2,000 1,900 1,850 1,750 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,540 1,540 1,540 1,540 1,540

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013
* Average Grade A Effective rents Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

Office market summary


Indicator
Current Office Stock
Future Supply (by end 2015)

Level
2.95 million sqm

Comment / Outlook
The majority of existing office space is Grade B and Grade C.
The proportion of Grade A office space is increasing significantly as new stock is delivered to the market. Vacancy rate remained unchanged this quarter but is expected to rise further as new supply is added over the next 12 months.

967,000 sqm

Current Vacancy Rate

38%

Average Grade A Rent

AED 1,540 per sqm per annum


AED 1,200 per sqm per annum

Grade A rents have remained stable for the last five quarters and are expected to remain stable.

Average Grade B Rent

Grade B rents remained stable this quarter but are expected to decrease further.

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Abu Dhabi residential market overview

Residential supply
Approximately 2,700 residential units were delivered in Abu Dhabi during Q3. The majority of these units were within Rawdhat and Danet on Airport Road, Al Reef Downtown, Mangrove Place on Reem Island, Al Falah and the Khor Al Raha apartments at Al Raha Beach. These deliveries bring the total residential stock to approximately 213,000 units.
An additional 4,000 units are scheduled to be delivered to the market by the end of 2013. These include additional apartments in Rawdhat and Danet on Airport Road, Al Bustan Complex on 29th Street, the Landmark Tower on Corniche, the Gate Towers on Reem Island and Al Reef Downtown in Al Reef. As with other projects, the completion of many of these schemes may be delayed.

There are also a number of units scheduled for handover by the end of 2013 within National Housing communities including Al Falah and Watani developments.
Although a large proportion of the residential pipeline announced prior to 2008 has since been delayed, the aggregate supply could still reach 254,000 units by the end of 2015. The majority of this additional supply is located within masterplanned areas such as Reem Island, Saadiyat Island, Danet, Saraya and Rawdhat.

Abu Dhabi Residential Stock (2012 2015)


Completed Number of Units (In 000's )
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2012
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

Residential Units by the end of 2013


Future Supply
14 33% Villa

23

206

213

217

240

Apartment 67%
42%

2013

2014

2015
Note: Including Units scheduled for completion in Q4 2013 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, 2013

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Recent and near term residential completions


Saadiyat Beach Residences The Gate Towers Reem Island ADNIC apartments The Mangrove Place Reem Island

Al Reef Downtown (phase 4)

Landmark Tower

Rawdhat Building - Rawdhat

Al Bustan Complex

Al Nasr Tower Danet Abu Dhabi

Aabar Buildings - Rawdhat

Al Rawdah Residence - Rawdhat

Completed Q3 2013 Awaiting handover

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Residential performance sales price


Average residential asking prices within Investment Areas have increased by 5% during Q3 2013 to reach approximately AED 12,100 per sqm, following 8% and 5% growth during Q1 and Q2 2013 respectively. Average asking prices for both apartments and villas have both increased to AED 14,200 per sqm and AED 10,500 per sqm respectively. These increases are restricted to prime buildings within Investment Areas and do not represent a market-wide recovery, price growth has not been witnessed elsewhere.
The growth in sales prices and transaction volumes over the past three quarters can be attributed to various factors including: - Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai are benefiting from the UAEs status as a safe haven following political unrest in the wider region; - Limited stock available for purchase within high grade schemes; - Expectations of further price growth due to improved demand (driven by government infrastructure and economic development initiatives) and limited quality supply; - Greater levels of job security post - downturn.

Sales Price* of Residential Units (Q4 2009 Q3 2013)


20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 17,222 15,070 13,455 Prime Sales ('000 AED/sqm)

11,840 11,840 11,840 11,840

12,100 11,000 11,000 10,900 10,500 11,000 11,500 10,200 10,200

Q1 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q2 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

*Asking prices Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013 Note: Sales prices pertain to Investment Areas only.

Q3 2013

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Residential performance - rents


Average asking rents for prime two bedroom apartments remained While high quality developments have performed well, secondary stock unchanged at AED 130,000 per annum during Q3 2013. has been affected by major increases to supply, with rents continuing to decline as people move to newer developments. This divergence in Demand has remained strong due to a variety of factors including: performance is expected to continue into 2014, with prime developments (those that are well located with efficient designs, quality - Government spending initiatives leading to job growth such as management and providing high quality amenities and facilities and the airport expansion, the Etihad railway and the museums on sufficient parking) achieving an increased premium. Saadiyat Island; - Government entities requiring Dubai-based employees to relocate to Abu Dhabi in response to the new regulations; - The rental differential between Abu Dhabi and Dubai has reduced as rents have increased in Dubai;

- Continued improvements to Abu Dhabis urban offering.


240
220 200 180 160 140 120 100 231

Average Two-bedroom Rents* (2008 Q3 2013)


198 180 170 168 163 153

Average Rent ('000 AED per annum)

188

150

145

140

140

135

135

126

121

120

120

130

130

130

Q3 2010

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q2 2013

*Asking rents Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

Q3 2013

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Residential market summary


Indicator
Current Residential Stock

Level
213,000 units

Comment / Outlook
Good quality residential stock is set to increase further with the delivery of the Landmark Tower and additional units within Saadiyat Beach Residences. Concentrated within master developments such as Rawdhat, Danet, Reem Island and Saadiyat Island in addition to sizeable National housing developments. Rents for prime apartments remained stable this quarter, while rents for poorer quality properties continued to fall. Sale prices for 2 bedroom apartments continued to increase in selective projects, particularly in investment areas, albeit not market wide. Rents for 3 bed villas remained stable this quarter and are expected to remain relatively stable in most locations

Future Supply (by end 2015)

41,000 units

Average Prime 2 Bed Apartment Rent

AED 130,000 per annum

Average Prime 2 Bed Apartment Sale Price

AED 14,200 per sqm

Average 3 Bed Villa Rent

AED 170,000 per annum

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Abu Dhabi retail market overview

Retail supply
As of Q3 2013, total retail space across the Abu Dhabi metropolitan area stands at approximately 1.89 million sqm.
Retail stock increased by around 112,000 sqm in Q3 2013 with the delivery of The Galleria at Sowwah Square on Al Maryah Island, The Collection at the St.Regis on Saadiyat Island and Deerfields Townsquare in Bahia. Further deliveries are scheduled for Q4 2013 with approximately 143,000 sqm of retail GLA expected to enter the market by the end of 2013. This includes World Trade Centre Mall which opened on October 23rd at Central Market and Capital Mall in Building Materials City.

Abu Dhabi Retail Stock (2012 2015)


3,000 2,500 GLA in '000s sqm 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1,770 1,895 2,037 2,349 143 Completed 311 Future Supply 224

In addition to these new malls, a number of retail centres within mixed-use developments are expected to enter the market by the end of 2013. These include units within Al Reef Community and the Eastern Mangroves Promenade.
By the end of 2015, total retail space across Abu Dhabi is expected to reach around 2.6 million sqm of GLA with the delivery of major malls such as Yas Mall, Saadiyat Mall, Sowwah Central and Reem Mall.

2012
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

2013

2014

2015

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Recent and near term retail completions


The Galleria Sowwah Square The Collection at the St.Regis Saadiyat Island Deerfields Townsquare

Emporium Mall Central Market

Capital Mall

Nation Towers

Completed Q3 2013 Awaiting handover

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Retail performance
A continuous growth in retail spending (derived from both the While there are a number of large malls in the supply pipeline, the resident population and higher tourist levels), is supporting demand majority are expected to materialise between 2017 and 2018. This for additional retail space in Abu Dhabi. additional supply could however cause rents to soften in the short to medium term as developers compete to secure the best retailers. Average rents in retail centres on Abu Dhabi Island have remained stable this quarter at AED 2,887 / sqm per annum, average rents of retail centres outside Abu Dhabi Island have also remained unchanged at AED 1,900 / sqm per annum this quarter. Vacancies remain minimal within established centres on Abu Dhabi Island, such as Marina Mall and Abu Dhabi Mall. Vacancies are much higher in newly completed centres, with some opening with significant levels of vacant space.

Retail Rental Performance* (Q4 2008 Q3 2013)


3,500
Retail Rent (AED/sqm/annum)

Rental Rates: Regional and Super Regional Malls - Abu Dhabi


F&B (AED / sqm) Line Shops (AED / sqm) Casual Dining: 2,000 to 3,000 Food Court: 2,500 to 4,500 1,500 - 4,000

3,000

Kiosk (AED/per annum)


Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

60,000 to 180,000

*Average retail rents for line shops in regional and super regional malls on Abu Dhabi Island Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Q3 2013

Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013
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Anchor (AED / sqm)

500 - 1,500

2,500

Retail sector summary


Indicator
Current Retail Space (GLA) Additional Supply (by end 2015) Current Vacancy Level (Regional and Super Regional malls on Abu Dhabi Island) Average Rents (Regional and Super Regional malls on Abu Dhabi Island)

Level
1.89 million sqm

Comment / Outlook
The proportion of high quality retail is increasing as a percentage of total GLA.
There is a significant number of retail projects expected to open by the end of 2015, although some delays are expected. Malls on Abu Dhabi Island have very high occupancy rates which are expected to decrease in line with new supply. Rents are expected to remain stable in the short term but decrease due to increased competition from new high quality malls in 2015.

678,000 sqm

2%

AED 2,887 per sqm per annum

Average Rents (outside Abu Dhabi Island)

AED 1,900 per sqm per annum

Average rents have remained stable this quarter outside of Abu Dhabi Island and are expected to stabilise at current levels.

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Abu Dhabi hotel market overview

Hotel supply
The third quarter of 2013 witnessed the opening of St. Regis Abu Dhabi on the Corniche, providing almost 300 additional rooms. This adds to the extensive new supply seen in recent years, with more than 1,700 rooms added in the first three quarters of 2013.
Number of Rooms

Expected Future Supply (2013 2015)


25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 15,700 5,000 0 2012 2013F Existing Supply
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

3,300 1,850

The third quarter also saw the opening of the Eastern Mangroves Suites, which added 88 hotel apartments. Two major projects, the Novotel and the Premier Inn Abu Dhabi Airport, are still expected to open by the end of 2013. Despite delays and cancellations of projects, around 5,700 additional rooms are scheduled to enter the Abu Dhabi market by the end of 2015. The recent oversupply situation has resulted in limited recent announcements of new hotel projects. Overall supply is expected to reach about 23,100 rooms by the end of 2015, representing a CAGR of 15% from 2013 levels

600

17,350

17,950

19,800

2014F Future Supply

2015F

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Recent and near term hotel completions


Premier Inn Abu Dhabi Airport Eastern Mangroves Suites Novotel and Adagio Al Bustan Complex

Capital Centre Arjaan by Rotana

St. Regis Nation Towers

Completed Q3 2013 Awaiting handover

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Trading performance
Abu Dhabi hotels recorded a 16% increase in revenue and a 10% increase in guest arrivals between January and June 2013, compared to the same period of 2012. However, the benefit of increased visitor arrivals has again been offset by significant increases in supply.
The hotel market now appears to be stabilising, with occupancy levels increasing 6 percentage points to 64% in the year to August 2013. Average daily rates have continued to remain under pressure, declining by 2% as hotels have relied on significant discounting to push up occupancy levels.

Hotel Performance 2010 2013 YT August


1,000 64% 55% 80%

750
ADR (AED)

58%

64%

60%

500

40%

250

20%

Due to the positive growth in occupancies, RevPAR levels in the year to August 2013 have experienced an increase of 9% compared to the same period in 2012. While tourism in Abu Dhabi continues to be driven by the corporate and MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferencing, Exhibitions) segments, efforts are being made to diversify tourism demand by focusing on the leisure segment. Developments include multiple museums and leisure entertainment venues on Saadiyat Island and Yas Island together with the expansion of the airport.

0 2010 2011 ADR (AED)


Source: STR Global

0% 2012 Occupancy 2013

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Hotel Sector Summary


Indicator Current Hotel Room Supply Level Comment / Outlook One internationally branded hotel opened in Q3 2013the St. Regis hotel, located within Nation Towers, Corniche.

17,350 keys

Future Supply (by end 2015)

5,750 keys

Remaining quality hotel openings expected in 2013 include the Novotel & Premier Inn Abu Dhabi Airport. Supply pipeline has experienced a reduction, with multiple project delays.

2013 YTD Occupancy

64%

Occupancy levels have witnessed a notable increase during YTD 2013 period, owing to a much improved performance in the months of FebruaryAugust, with only a slight dip in July during Ramadan.
ADR levels continued to contract, declining by 2% in YT August 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. The negative growth in ADR was offset by the substantial increase in occupancy, resulting in a year-overyear RevPAR increase of 9%.

2013 YTD ADR

AED 520

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Definitions and methodology


Residential:
Residential buildings are considered handed over once they are ready for tenant occupation. This data excludes labour accommodation. Residential performance data is based on asking prices from a basket of selected developments.

Office:
Office buildings are considered handed over once they are ready for tenant fit-outs.

Retail:
Retail space is considered handed over once it is open and operational. Classification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition as published in Retail Development, 4th Edition published by ULI. Prime Rent Shopping Centre represents the top open market net rent that could be expected for a notional standard line unit shop situated in a specified shopping centre - preferred in a inner city location -, as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period).

Average Grade A Office rents represent the average effective rents taken from a basket of selected buildings defined as superior in the current market. The Average Rent reflects values captured in occupational leases that is standard for the local market. It is an effective rent that accounts for rent free periods only (and not the financial impact of any other tenant incentive/s) and excludes service charges and local taxes.

Hotels:
Hotels are considered handed over once they are open and operational. Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by ADTCA as well as future hotel development data tracked by Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels. Room supply includes all graded supply and excludes serviced apartments.

Hotel performance data is based on monthly survey conducted by STR Global on a sample of international standard midscale upscale hotels.

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Contacts:
David Dudley Head of Abu Dhabi Office david.dudley@jll.com Barry McGettigan Senior Agent, Agency Abu Dhabi barry.mcgettigan@jll.com Peter Stebbings Head of Valuation Advisory Abu Dhabi peter.stebbings@jll.com Craig Plumb Head of Research MENA craig.plumb@jll.com Chiheb Ben-Mahmoud Head of Hotels & Hospitality MENA chiheb.ben-mahmoud@jll.com Dunia Joulani Senior Analyst Abu Dhabi dunia.joulani@jll.com Andrew Williamson Head of Retail MENA andrew.williamson@jll.com Mai Hassan Research Assistant Abu Dhabi mai.hassan@jll.com

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