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PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP 52nd OMNIBUS POLL

The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion

Issued December 10th, 2013


6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine 04101 207-871-8622 www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

Most Accurate Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race Maines Best Pollster 2008
Closest in predicting the actual results of the Governors race and the 1st Congressional District race in 2010 2012 Elections: Most accurate polls on Presidential and CD1 and CD2 elections.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Table of Contents
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I. Background..... II. Methodology...... III. Poll Results ............

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IV. Demographic Profile of Sample....

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The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

I. Background
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PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and consulting firm which is currently in its 29th year of successful operation. This Omnibus Poll is the 52nd poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public policy, business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify the source of information. All questions reported on herein are non-proprietary and were not commissioned by any party other than Pan Atlantic SMS Group. For further information, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

II. Methodology
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PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted between November 25th and November 30th, 2013. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the public interest. A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine residents was interviewed by telephone. Each of Maines two Congressional Districts are represented by approximately half of the sample.

To ensure a highly representative sample, a 20% cell phone sample was used.
The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:

Are ages 18 and older

Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm
Are registered to vote in Maine and who said they are likely to vote in the November, 2014 elections.

This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantics team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used. The sample used comprised a mix of land and cell phones, and responses were weighted according to respondent age to better represent Maines age segment distribution.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

II. Methodology
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PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals. The sample was stratified statewide based on the 2012 U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the 4.9 percent margin of error. The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age, and gender. The margins of error for each of the two CDs is 6.98 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of public opinion at a singular point in time.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

POLL RESULTS

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

ECONOMY

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Mainers are showing the highest level of confidence in the direction of the State since 2006 (38.9% Right direction)
8 [Options were rotated; n=400]

In general, do you think that the State of Maine is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Aug. '05 Mar. '06 July '06 May '07 Sept. '07 June '08 Apr. '09 Right Direction 21.5% 41.1% 40.4% 31.0% 37.3% 23.0% 32.0% Wrong Direction 60.0% 41.6% 41.6% 51.0% 48.3% 59.8% 49.8% Don't know 18.5% 17.2% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5% 17.3% 18.3%

Oct. '09 May '10 May '11 Mar. '13 Nov. '13 34.2% 28.3% 29.4% 37.7% 38.9% 51.1% 50.8% 57.1% 46.9% 48.5% 14.7% 21.0% 13.5% 15.4% 12.6%

Male respondents are much more likely to feel that the state is headed in the right direction (45.0% of male respondents versus 33.2% of female respondents)

Mainers with lower levels of household income have a less favorable view of the States direction (<$50k, 30.8% right direction vs. 45.0% of those earning $50k+)

Republicans (59.3%) are more favorable regarding the direction of the State than Democrats (27.6%) and Independents (31.5%).

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Jobs/Unemployment is far and away the most pressing issue for Mainers.
9 [Unaided; n=400]

What do you think is the most important issue facing the State of Maine today?

Jobs/Unemployment
Accessibility/Cost of health care
13.3% 12.7% 5.4% 2.7% 2.5% 5.3%
4.2%

36.2%
The importance of Jobs/Unemployment as an issue has increased since Spring 2013 from 27.0% to 36.2%.

Economy in general Education Need for tax reform Crime/drugs/violence Balancing the state budget High level of taxes Cost of living Other Unsure
3.1%

Accessibility/Cost of health care has become the top issue for 13.3% of Mainers, up from 7.0% in March, 2013.

1.6%
13.0%
Balancing the state budget has declined from being the top issue of 11.0% of Mainers in March to 5.3% in November, 2013.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

More than half of Mainers expect that their household economic situation will stay stagnant in 2014.
10 [n=400]

Compared to 2013, for the year 2014, do you believe that your household economic situation will:

Stay the same, 52.9%

Worsen, 24.5%

Republicans and Independents are more pessimistic than Democrats about their household economic situation in 2014. A third (33.4%) of Republicans and 27.3% of Independents expect their household economic situation to worsen, compared to 13.6% of Democrats.

Improve, 20.6%

Unsure/ Other, 2.1%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

In 2013, 42.0% of Mainers plan to spend less on holiday gifts than in 2012, while 5.4% intend to spend more and 51.9% will spend about the same.
11 [n=400]

Thinking about the upcoming holiday season, do you plan to spend more, less or about the same as you did last year on holiday gifts?

About the same, 51.9%

Less, 42.0%

Younger respondents are less likely to report plans to cut back on Christmas spending. Only 32.8% of respondents ages 18-34 plan on spending less on holiday gifts this year, compared to 45.1% of those ages 35 and up.

More, 5.4%

Don't know, 0.7%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

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NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

59.8% of Mainers disapprove of President Obamas job performance, a 7.3 point increase in disapproval levels since March, 2013, while 36.2% approve.
13 [Options rotated; n=400]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job?

Approval by Political Affiliation

58.9%, Democrats
(Decline from 73.5% in March)
Disapprove 59.8% Approve 36.2%

37.2%, Independents
(Decline from 40.3% in March)

9.6%, Republicans
(Decline from 16.8% in March)
Unsure/No answer 4.0%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Mainers overwhelmingly oppose Octobers Federal Government shutdown.


14 [n=400]

Did you support or oppose Congress recently shutting down major activities of the Federal Government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place?

Support Oppose Don't Know 18.6% 74.3% 7.2%

Although the shutdown was unpopular among all demographics tested, only 54.5% of Republicans opposed the shutdown, compared to 86.0% of Democrats and 80.4% of Independents.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

A slight majority (50.3%) of Mainers feel that government is doing too many things that are better left to business and individuals.
15 [Options rotated; n=400]

I am going to read you two statements about the role of government, and Id like to know which one comes closer to your point of view
Statement A: Federal, State, and Local Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of regular people.
Statement A 45.4%

Statement B: Government is doing too many things that are better left to businesses and individuals.
There is a sizeable gap on this question between the responses of those with and those without children under 18 living in the household. Those with children support Statement B by a margin of 55.1%-39.8%, while those without children support Statement A by 49.1%-47.1%.

Statement B 50.3%

Don't know 4.3%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

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MAINE PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Senator Susan Collins continues to have the highest favorability level among several major Maine politicians / political figures (tested).
17 [n=400]

Im going to read you the names of some people involved in the public life of Maine For each person, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of them. If you arent familiar with that person, just say so
100%

75%

March: 74.7% March: 60.8%

50%

March: 46.9%

March: 42.4%

25%

0%
Senator Susan Collins Favorable Unfavorable Unsure/Not familiar 78.5% 19.0% 2.5%

Congressman Mike Michaud 55.0% 30.0% 15.0%

Governor Paul Lepage 43.1% 54.5% 2.4%

Candidate for Governor Eliot Cutler 38.5% 27.3% 34.2%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

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[n=400]

Highlights Senator Collins has an overall favorability level of 78.5%. Although both have declined in favorability levels, Representative Mike Michaud (55.0%) continues to hold a strong lead in favorability over Governor Paul LePage (43.1%), and also Eliot Cutler (38.5%). Rep. Michauds favorability is higher in his own district 57.9% in CD2 vs. 52.2% in CD1, though this 5.7 percentage point gap is much smaller than the gap of 18.1 percentage points recorded in the Pan Atlantic March 2013 Omnibus Poll. Seven in ten Republicans (71.2%) have a favorable opinion of Gov. Paul LePage, compared to 20.3% of Democrats and 40.1% of Independents. Gov. LePages support among Republicans has increased since March, while his support among Democrats and Independents has decreased.

Gov. LePage has a higher favorability level in District 2 than in District 1 (48.4% vs. 37.9%). Males (50.9%) also view him more favorably than females (35.7%).
Eliot Cutler (I) has an overall favorability level of 38.5%. However, 34.2% are not familiar with or are unsure of their opinion of gubernatorial candidate Cutler.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Among likely candidates for the 2014 gubernatorial election, Mike Michaud holds a small advantage of 1.3 percentage points over Paul LePage
19 [Options rotated; n=400]

Mainers will vote for Governor in the November, 2014 elections. Assuming the candidates were Independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who would you vote for? Among those candidates, which one are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were today? (Choices were rotated.) A follow up question was asked of those who said dont knowWhich candidate are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were held today?

Maine Voter Preferences Among Mike Michaud, Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.3% 1.8%
33.5% 22.8% 25.6%

35.0%

34.2%

1.5% 16.8% 6.8%

18.1%

Mike Michaud

Spring, 2013

Paul LePage

Spring, 2013

Eliot Cutler

Spring, 2013

Dont Know / Refused

Spring, 2013

Totals:

37.3%
Would vote for

36.0%

18.3%

8.5%
Total Vote Spring 13

Are leaning towards voting for

*Mike Michaud had not announced his candidacy at the time of our Spring poll.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

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[n=400]

Highlights At the time of the Pan Atlantic Spring 2013 Omnibus Poll, Mike Michaud (22.8%) had not yet announced his candidacy. Since Mike Michauds announcement that he is a candidate, his polling numbers have increased by 14.5 percentage points, while Eliot Cutlers have declined by 7.3 percentage points. Michaud has also picked up significant support from the undecided segment (was 18.1% in March 2013, and is now 8.4%)

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Among the likely candidates for the 2014 gubernatorial election, Mike Michaud holds a small advantage over Paul LePage
21 [Options rotated; n=400]

Mainers will vote for Governor in the November, 2014 elections. Assuming the candidates were Independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who would you vote for? Among those candidates, which one are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were today? (Choices were rotated.) A follow up question was asked of those who said dont knowWhich candidate are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were held today?
Respondents of French or French-Canadian Descent
Cutler 13.8% Michaud 36.2% LePage 50.0%

Congressional District 1
Dont Know 10.8% Michaud 36.9% Cutler 18.7%

Female Respondents
Dont Know 9.7%

Cutler 18.4%

LePage 33.5%

Michaud 43.7%

LePage 28.2%

N=58 Respondents of Non-French or Non-French-Canadian Descent


Dont Know 9.6% Michaud 37.7% Cutler 19.0%

N=203

N=206

Congressional District 2
Dont Know Cutler 6.1% 17.3% Michaud 37.6%

Male Respondents
Dont Know 6.7% Michaud 30.4% Cutler 18.6%

LePage 33.6%

LePage 39.1%

LePage 44.3%

N=342

N=197

N=194

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Mike Michaud is polling strongest among Independent voters (34.7% vs. 26.4% - LePage and 23.6% - Cutler).
22 [Options rotated; n=400]

Mainers will vote for Governor in the November, 2014 elections. Assuming the candidates were Independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who would you vote for? Among those candidates, which one are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were today? (Choices were rotated.) A follow up question was asked of those who said dont knowWhich candidate are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were held today?
Democrat Independent Republican

Dont Know 5.3%

Cutler 21.1%

Dont Know 15.3%

Cutler 23.6%

Michaud 19.0%

Dont Know Cutler 3.4% 10.3%

Michaud 56.4%

LePage 17.3%

Michaud 34.7%

LePage 26.4%

LePage 67.2%

N=133

N=144

N=116

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Gov. Paul LePage appears to be the most polarizing figure of the three candidates in the gubernatorial election 52.5% would not consider voting for him vs. 32.5% (Mike Michaud) and 29.2% (Eliot Cutler).
23 [Options rotated; n=400]

Now, Id like to ask you a slightly different question. Regardless of who you are now supporting in the general election for Governor, Id like you to tell me whether you would or would not consider voting for each of the following candidates on a scale of 1-5, where 1=Highly Unlikely and 5=Very Likely.
Of the 52.5% unlikely to consider voting for Governor LePage, 46.7% said highly unlikely. Likelihood to Consider Voting for Gubernatorial Candidates

Eliot Cutler

15.6%

13.7%

34.1%

14.7%

9.9%

12.1%

Mike Michaud

22.1%

10.4%

20.8%

17.7%

24.1%

4.9%

Paul LePage 0% 10%

46.7% 20% 30% 40%

5.8% 6.9% 50% 60%

12.0% 70%

26.4% 80% Very likely 90%

2.2%

100%

Highly unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Neither likely nor unlikely

Somewhat likely

Don't know

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll The vast majority of respondents indicate that Mike Michauds recent announcement regarding his sexual orientation will not influence their vote in the 2014 gubernatorial elections only 9.3% said it would influence them in a negative way.
24 [Options rotated; n=400]

Recently, Congressman Mike Michaud, who is running for Governor, came out as a gay man. In selecting your choice of candidate for Governor in the 2014 elections, will his sexual orientation factor into your decision in a positive way, negative way, or does it not matter?

Does not matter, 86.2%

20.6% of Republicans and 13.6% of respondents of French or FrenchCanadian descent indicate that Rep. Michauds sexuality would factor into their decision in an negative way.

Respondents from Congressional District 2 are more likely to view Rep. Michauds announcement as a negative factor 13.5% vs. 5.3% of respondents in District 1.

Negative way, 9.3%

Positive Don't know, way, 3.9% 0.6%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Two-thirds (67.9%) of Michaud and Cutler supporters (combined) would consider voting for a second-choice candidate in order to defeat Gov. Paul LePage.
25 [Asked of those supporting or leaning towards Michaud or Cutler; n=207]

Lets assume that as Election Day, 2014 approaches, your preferred candidate for governor is polling significantly behind the other two major candidates. In those circumstances, would you consider voting for your second choice candidate in order to increase the likelihood of defeating Governor Paul LePage? (Question asked only of Cutler and Michaud voters/leaners.)

Yes, 67.9%

No, 27.4%

A strong majority of supporters of both Eliot Cutler and Mike Michaud say they would consider voting for another candidate in order to increase the likelihood of defeating Governor LePage. However, Rep. Michauds supporters (70.7%) appear to be somewhat more willing than Eliot Cutlers (62.2%) to strategically switch their votes.

Don't know, 3.2%

I would support Paul LePage 1.4%

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Governor LePages job approval ratings 46.6% approve and 52.2% disapprove have remained very consistent since 2012.
26 [Options rotated; n=400]

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for almost three years. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly or somewhat?
Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage November 2013 Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage March 2013 Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage Oct. 2012

60%
52.2%

60%
52.9% 46.6%
Strongly 17.3%

60%
51.8%

50%
40%

50%
43.4%

50%
43.8%
Strongly 31.8%

40% 30% 20%

30% 20%
10%

Strongly 36.8%

Strongly 15.1%

40% 30%
20%
Strongly 36.8%

Strongly 17.3%

Somewhat 15.0%

Somewhat 26.5%

S omewhat

S omewhat

10%
1.2%

S omewhat

28.3%

21.1%

10%
3.7%

S omewhat

26.5%

15.0%

4.5%
Approve overall Don't know / Refused

0%
Disapprove overall Approve overall Don't know / Refused

0%
Disapprove overall Approve overall Don't know / Refused

0%
Disapprove overall

70.9% of Republicans approve, 45.0% of Independents, and 24.8% of Democrats.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Peter Vigue would be the top choice among potential challengers to Governor Paul LePage in the event of a Republican primary. However, Republicans have not unified behind any single alternate candidate. (Candidate choices were provided.)
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If a Republican were going to challenge Governor LePage in a primary, which of the following would you most like to see? (Question asked of Republican and Independent voters only n=261)
60% 50%
40%

50.4%

30% 20% 10% 0% Don't Know / Other Peter Vigue, Peter Mills, Phil Harriman, Carol Weston, Bruce Poliquin, Roger Katz, CEO of Cianbro Director, Maine Former State Fomer State Fomer State State Senator Turnpike Senator Senator Treasurer Authority

15.3%

8.3%

7.4%

6.9%

6.6%

5.1%

Peter Vigues support is strongest among male respondents (22.0% vs. 8.6% of females) and among those whose household income is over $50,000 (20.5% vs. 12.2% of those earning less than $50,000).

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Mainers are divided on the question of which of their elected set of representatives is doing the most to help the state get ahead.
28 [Options rotated; n=400]

From a policy perspective, who do you think is doing the most to help the state get ahead?
Our congressional delegation (US Senators and members of Congress), 26.6% Governor Paul LePage, 32.8% Don't know, 17.5% Legislative leaders in the state capital, 23.1%

Republicans are more likely to feel that Gov. Paul LePage is doing the most to help the state (54.9%, compared to 17.3% of Democrats and 28.0% of Independents. Democrats feel that legislative leaders in the state capital (30.3%) and the states congressional delegation (33.3%) are doing the most, compared to Republicans (16.3%, 16.9%) and Independents (22.3%, 28.9%).

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

A small majority of Mainers (5.3% margin) feel that the legislature was correct to attempt to expand MaineCare coverage.
29 [Options rotated; n=400]

The most recent legislature passed a bill to expand MaineCare to 70,000 Maine families that do not have health care coverage. The Governor, in turn, vetoed the bill, saying that we couldnt afford the expense. Whose position aligns more closely to your own?
Statement B: The legislature was correct that MaineCare coverage should be provided to 70,000 additional families.

Statement A: The governor was correct to veto because we cannot afford the expense.
Statement A 45.3%

Statement B 50.6%

Responses to this question broke down along party lines73.2% of Republicans agree with Statement A, while 76.1% of Democrats agree with Statement B.

By a margin of 57.2% to 37.2%, female respondents were much more likely to agree with Statement B than male respondents.
Dont know 4.1%

HEALTHCARE
Access to Dental Care in Maine

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

A very strong majority of Mainers (84.5%) support the authorization of mid-level dental providers. Only 11.4% oppose this measure.
31 [Options rotated; n=400]

The state legislature is currently considering a law that would authorize a dental provider, similar to a physicians assistant. Under the supervision of a dentist, the provider could provide quality care in places like schools and nursing homes, as well as allow dentists to care for more people in rural areas. Would you support or oppose authorizing this kind of provider?

Support, 84.5%

Oppose, 11.4%

Don't know, 4.1%

Support is particularly strong among younger respondents (93.8% of those ages 18-34 vs. 81.4% of those ages 35 and older).

*Please note Pan Atlantic SMS Group has conducted research work in the past for the Pew Trusts on this issue. These two questions were not commissioned by Pew Trusts or any other source.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

When the issue is framed as a reduction in government regulation, eliminating the prohibition on mid-level dental providers is supported by 83.8% of Mainers.
32 [Options rotated; n=400]

Currently, state regulations prohibit dentists from hiring providers similar to a physicians assistant or a nurse practitioner. Some dentists dont want to lift these regulations because they feel that it would hurt their business. Other dentists think doing so will allow them to treat more low-income patients. Do you oppose or support eliminating these government regulations, leaving it to individual dentists whether to hire this kind of provider?

Oppose 12.1%

Support 83.8%
Dont know 4.0%

Support for eliminating the government prohibition on midlevel dental providers is strong across all three political groupsDemocrats 79.8%, Republicans 83.5%, and Independents 88.2%.

*Please note Pan Atlantic SMS Group has conducted research work in the past for the Pew Trusts on this issue. These two questions were not commissioned by Pew Trusts or any other source.

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

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POLL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Poll Demographic Data


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CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT CD1 CD2


POLITICAL AFFILIATION

AGE 50.0% 50.0% 18 to 34


35 to 54 55+ GENDER 32.5% 29.5% 36.3% 1.3% 0.5% Female Male 2012 HOUSEHOLD INCOME $50,000 or less $50,000 to <$75,000 $75,000 or more Prefer not to answer 41.5% 20.8% 29.5% 8.3% 51.0% 49.0% 16.0% 47.5% 36.5%

Democrats Republicans Independents / Unenrolled Other Refused

Note: The above figures show the sample demographics prior to weighting. Survey responses were weighted to better represent Maines age distribution.

6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com 207.871.8622

Most Accurate Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race Maines Best Pollster 2008
Closest in predicting the actual results of the Governors race and the 1st Congressional District race in 2010 2012 Elections: Most accurate polls on Presidential and CD1 and CD2 elections.