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are certainly less bullish than they were this time last year when they predicted a double

digit price increase of more than 10% for 2012. And whilst last year was the 12th consecutive year in which the gold price has risen, it was the also the first year since 2007 not to record a new all time high. Analysts are forecasting that the gold price will trade in the range $1,529 to $1,914, with an average price forecast of $1,753. Analysts argue that factors which could push the gold price towards the upper end of the range include the expansion of the US balance sheet through QE3, continued weakness in the US dollar, an expected increase in physical demand from China and India, muted growth in the supply of gold as well as an expected increase in net official sector purchases. On the downside analysts cite a strengthening of the dollar, an increase in global real interest rates and a reduction in physical demand, particularly from India and ETF funds, as factors which could push the price towards the bottom end of the range. Analysts are predicting an increase in the price of all four metals in 2013. They are most bullish about the prospects for silver, citing limited supply growth coupled with increased industrial and investor demand, as positive factors helping to push up the price. They forecast that the average price in 2013 will be $33.21, 9.4% higher than the average price in the first week of 2013, with the price trading in the range between $26.20 and $39.75. Analysts warn that the price may also come under pressure from larger surplus of mine supplies and a downturn in the global economy. Platinum has been dominated by disruption in supplies as a result of the industrial unrest in South Africa, which accounts for 75% of total world supply. This is expected to continue and together with continued growth in markets, such as China, mean that analysts are bullish about the prospects of platinum, forecasting an average price of $1,682; 6.8% above the average price in the first week of 2013. The price of palladium is also expected to benefit from a negative impact on supply, in particular from a continued slowdown in sales from Russia, where stockpiles appear to be depleted. Analysts cite supply constraints coupled with increased industrial demand, particularly from the autocatalyst market, as factors which could see the average price in 2013 rise to $744, a $100 increase on the average price in 2012. To find out more about what will happen to prices for precious metals this year, and what the factors are likely to affect their price, read the views of the experts. The tables for each metal follow, simply click on the names of the analysts to read their commentary.

Forecast 2013

An Overview
Metal Gold Silver Platinum Palladium 1st Week January 2013 (2nd-10th Jan incl) $1,665 $30.36 $1,575 $689.64 Average 2013 Forecast $1,753 $33.21 $1,682 $744.03

2012 Year Average $1,669 $31.15 $1,552 $644.33

Forecast contributors expect all four metals to increase in price during 2013 by at least 5%. Forecasters however, predict that continued uncertainties in the global economy mean that there could be significant volatility in the prices for all metals.
In comparison to the previous few years’ double digit performance, 2012 saw only a single digit rise of just over 4% in the price of gold. Analysts are expecting a similar increase in price during 2013, with the average price forecast to increase by 5.3% against the price in the first week of January 2013. Analysts



Average Low High

1st week Jan 2013

Forecast Avg 2013

$1,500 $1,600 $1,700

$1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600


$1,620 $1,400 $1,525 $1,540 $1,525 $1,480 $1,520 $1,545 $1,642 $1,500 $1,527 $1,475 $1,450 $1,550 $1,580 $1,620 $1,525 $1,450 $1,575 $1,575 $1,530 $1,515 $1,500

$1,765 $1,700 $1,860 $1,778 $1,775 $1,600 $1,785 $1,740 $1,847 $1,650 $1,895 $1,768 $1,600 $1,736 $1,753 $1,745 $1,727 $1,658 $1,760 $1,900 $1,865 $1,670 $1,751

$2,020 $1,800 $2,000 $1,900 $1,975 $1,720 $2,000 $1,885 $2,002 $1,830 $2,012 $2,025 $1,800 $1,800 $1,880 $1,850 $1,925 $1,850 $1,950 $2,100 $2,000 $1,800 $1,895

Adams, William Bhar, Robin Brebner, Daniel Cooper, Suki Fertig, Peter

Societe Generale Deutsche Bank

Barclays Capital

QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd

Hochreiter, Réne Jollie, David

Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Credit Suisse Securities Europe (Ltd) Thomson Reuters GFMS Credit Agricole TD Securities

Kendall, Tom

Klapwijk, Philip Kotecha, Mitul Melek, Bart

DundeeWealth Economics Sumitomo Corporation Sharps Pixley Ltd

Murenbeeld, Martin Nagao, Eddie

Norman, Ross Panizzutti, Frederic Proettel, Thorsten Rhodes, Jeffrey Savant, Rohit Steel, James Teves, Joni Tremblay, Anne-Laure Vaidya, Bhargava Zumpfe, Alexander

MKS (Switzerland) S.A. LBBW

INTL Commodities CPM Group HSBC UBS

BNP Paribas

BN Vaidya & Associates Heraeus





Click on the name of a contributor and it will take you direct to the supporting commentary




00 $50. Anne-Laure BNP Paribas Vaidya.25 $31.20 $36.25 $30.05 $30.25 $27.50 $31.25 $31.80 $39.00 $45.00 $33.60 $40.30 $43.00 $25.00 $40.00 Bhar. Rohit Steel. Bart Nagao. LBBW Proettel.00 $27.50 $26.50 $29. Thorsten Rhodes.90 $29. Bhargava BN Vaidya & Associates Heraeus Zumpfe. Robin Societe Generale Deutsche Bank Brebner.00 $30.00 $36. Réne Jollie.00 $29. Joni Tremblay.75 Click on the name of a contributor and it will take you direct to the supporting commentary $5. Frederic MKS (Switzerland) S.00 $55.30 $31.00 $32. Suki Barclays Capital Fertig.00 $25. Tom Klapwijk.20 $35. Ross Panizzutti. William Fastmarkets Average Low High 1st week Jan 2013 Forecast Avg 2013 $30.00 $34.00 $37. David Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Credit Suisse Securities Europe (Ltd) Thomson Reuters GFMS TD Securities Kendall.00 $23.00 $31.Ag Name Adams.50 $33.40 $50.00 $35.00 $20.36 $15.00 $43.00 $37.00 $60.85 $32. Philip Melek. James Teves.00 3 .20 $33.00 $37. Alexander Averages $26.00 $23.52 $28.16 $34.00 $45.50 High $45. Jeffrey INTL Commodities CPM Group HSBC UBS Savant.00 $26.00 $38. Daniel Cooper.00 $29.40 $48.00 $70.00 $35.00 $36.00 $37.21 $39.00 $36.50 $26.45 $27.00 $25. Eddie Sharps Pixley Ltd Sumitomo Corporation Norman. Peter QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd Hochreiter.00 $26.00 $47.00 $35.00 $23.00 $65.00 $25.50 $26.00 $27.00 $45.00 $0.70 $32.00 $36.25 $36.00 $33.21 $10.00 Average $33.00 $39.A.00 Low $26.00 $23.75 $26.

100 $2.740 $1.400 $1. James Stevens. Réne Jollie.510 $1.495 $1.000 Low $1.875 $1.895 $1. Daniel Cooper.850 $1.755 $1.670 $1.500 $1.682 $1.950 $1. Peter QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd Hochreiter.535 $1.640 $1.400 $1. Bart Nagao. LBBW Proettel.450 $1.845 Click on the name of a contributor and it will take you direct to the supporting commentary $1. Suki Barclays Capital Fertig. Anne-Laure BNP Paribas Heraeus Zumpfe.900 $1.675 $1.800 $1.390 $1.550 Average $1.538 $1.600 $1.Pt Name Adams.200 $1.715 $1.530 $1. Joni Tremblay. Tom Klapwijk.525 $1.545 $1.890 $1. Alexander Averages $1.750 $1.705 $1.000 $2.A. William Fastmarkets Average Low High 1st week Jan 2013 Forecast Avg 2013 $1.905 $1.400 $1. Rohit CPM Group HSBC Steel.300 $1.100 $2.690 $1.695 $1.200 $1.625 $1.300 4 . Philip Melek.386 $1.840 $1.480 $1.844 $1. Ross Panizzutti.500 $1.800 $1.520 $1.475 $1. Eddie Sharps Pixley Ltd Sumitomo Corporation Norman.711 $1.875 $1.900 $1.575 $1.790 $1.575 $1.682 $1.000 Bhar.690 High $1.688 $1.500 $1. Thorsten Savant. David Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Credit Suisse Securities Europe (Ltd) Thomson Reuters GFMS TD Securities Kendall.870 $1. Robin Societe Generale Deutsche Bank Brebner.475 $1.500 $1.410 $1.700 $1.800 $1.700 $1.744 $1.850 $2.675 $1.600 $1.750 $1.500 $1.900 $2.670 $1. Glyn INTL Commodities UBS Teves. Frederic MKS (Switzerland) S.710 $1.

Thorsten Savant.00 Bhar. LBBW Proettel.00 $600. Peter QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd Hochreiter.00 $560.64 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $744.Pd Name Adams.00 $737.00 $940.00 $560.00 $725.00 $576.00 $736.00 $590.00 $550.00 $815. David Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Credit Suisse Securities Europe (Ltd) Thomson Reuters GFMS TD Securities Kendall.00 $787.00 $715.00 $740.00 $745.00 $875.00 $900.00 $800.00 $600. Tom Klapwijk.00 $800.000 $1. Réne Jollie.00 $625. Daniel Cooper.00 $990.00 $550.00 $620.00 $646.00 $782.00 $775.100 $1.00 $900. Robin Societe Generale Deutsche Bank Brebner.00 $810. William Fastmarkets Average Low High 1st week Jan 2013 Forecast Avg 2013 $689.00 $632.00 $620.00 $700. Bart Nagao.00 $682.00 Average $765.50 $700.03 $850.300 $100 Low $600.00 $840.00 High $900.00 $745. James Stevens. Joni Tremblay. Ross Panizzutti.00 $625.00 $630. Anne-Laure BNP Paribas Heraeus Zumpfe.00 $820.00 $725.60 Click on the name of a contributor and it will take you direct to the supporting commentary $200 $1.00 $820. Alexander Averages $607.00 $675.03 $1.00 $590.00 $800.45 $744.A. Suki Barclays Capital Fertig.00 $780.200 $1. Glyn INTL Commodities UBS Teves. Eddie Sharps Pixley Ltd Sumitomo Corporation Norman.00 $850.00 $650.00 $850.00 $874.00 $666.00 $750.00 $850.00 $835.00 $650.00 $780. Frederic MKS (Switzerland) S. Philip Melek.400 $800 $900 5 .00 $753. Rohit CPM Group HSBC Steel.00 $835.

500 . With South Africa providing 75% of the world’s platinum.500 . we feel.$2.30 W Pt Range: $1. Our high price. and have more than offset the deficit in the underlying market dynamics. if seen. Economic recovery (notably in the European automotive sector) will boost sentiment with respect to platinum’s prospects and potentially fuel a run towards a high of $1. We continue to believe that these shipments are in their final phase and see this as thrusting the market into a chronic deficit. we would not expect prices to hold above $37 for any length of time. On the demand side. we feel platinum demand will not benefit to the full extent. reflecting a continued desire for reserve diversification. and with the country supplying some 37% of palladium supply. Central banks.$45. Over 10 million oz of Russian government stocks have been shipped into the market over the period. that could have a big impact on the metals availability.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart William ADAMS Fastmarkets. Will the debtors be tempted to debase the currencies in which the debt is denominated? In addition. especially in South Africa. Silver began developing support at $30 early in the fourth quarter of 2012 and we expect this to be largely sustained for much of 2013. creditors will want to reduce exposure to fiat paper in order to protect the value of their wealth. 6 . That said.00 . that is likely to put platinum at a disadvantage. helping to keep the future price decline reasonably gradual. which will support a renewed price rise over the longer term. is likely to happen in a spike higher in prices as.800 Average: $1. Salisbury W Ag Range: $26. they are to some extent positioned accordingly.00 .00 Average: $33.00 W Pt Range: $1. should limit falls. coupled with a stagnating supply side. we believe that much of these forces are priced into the market and that.$1.00 Average: $765. any lasting disruption could have a significant impact on supply. we feel silver will follow gold’s direction and it should also benefit from any pick-up in industrial activity. when ETF sales pushed the residual market into surplus. With gold’s bull run drawing to a close this year.00 Au Range: $1.020 Average: $1.00 Average: $31. With the exception of 2011. especially from producers of bi-product silver. generally.700 W Ag Range: $26. where continued troubles are jeopardising both short-term output and longer-term production plans.620 . we feel that it is bound to drag silver prices higher too – fundamentally. silver will also turn down and the $30 support is likely to come under pressure again during 2013. we feel that palladium will benefit from stronger growth in demand for petrol engine cars in North America. On the demand side.400 . London Range: $1.00 . we feel with so much debt denominated in fiat currencies. Generally. The official sector is expected to remain on the buy side. We are generally bullish for the PGMs on a supply stance as we fear there will be an escalation in labour unrest and resource nationalism in Southern Africa. we would expect good supply in the form of forward producer hedging.900 Average: $1.$36. as silver moves higher in sympathy with gold. Robin BHAR Au Société Générale CIB. slow sales from Russian stockpiles are likely to reduce supply further. which we think we will start to see in 2013.$1.$37 area. however. Overall. we feel the legacy of all the quantitative easing that has been done could well stoke inflation once economic growth in the US and China gathers momentum. will be reluctant to tighten monetary policy in fear of stifling the recoveries and that may well mean inflation gets a head start.765 We remain bullish for gold as we feel creditors of US and EU debt (we are not so worried about Japanese debt) will become increasingly nervous about how the debt is managed.$1. Investor buying and industrial demand growth. palladium has been in a global deficit for more than 10 years overall.000 area.688 W Pd Range: $650.00 Gold will be underpinned by renewed fears of inflationary forces and currency volatility.00 .00 Average: $775. as the European auto sales are likely to remain subdued and with their preference for diesel engine cars.900 in 2013.$900. We are bullish for palladium from a supply point of view as we fear there will be further labour unrest in South Africa. The disruption in the South African mining sector will have long-term ramifications on the platinum market. although we feel the global auto industry will see stronger growth in 2013. In addition. in the $35 .900 Average: $1. while the US dollar is also expected to remain relatively weak on the back of QE3 and the possibility of other monetary tools designed to help offset any headwinds from fiscal consolidation.$900. while investors remain friendly towards gold. Given that we would not be surprised to see gold challenge the $2. China and other emerging markets.715 W Pd Range: $600.

00 Au Range: $1. as economic conditions appear to normalise has also resulted in less urgency for investors to buy unorthodox investment instruments such as gold. London W Ag Range: $29. On this basis. particularly given the importance of growth for this highly indebted region. Finally.00 W Pt Range: $1. For palladium. largely a function of the apparent success of central bankers in mitigating the risks associated with excessive financial leverage within the Western economic system.00 Average: $715. we expect the market to remain in a considerable deficit of c. we are not convinced that the Western economies have kicked their addiction to zero-cost funding. reversing a 10+ year trend of appreciation. We expect that gold to silver ratio to decline steadily from 55 to 50 this year. There is a growing conviction by many investors and analysts that the US dollar is likely to strengthen over the longer term. 900koz this year. The strength in other more conventional assets. a strong dollar would mitigate upside for gold in dollar terms. gold cannot tarnish in the physical sense.525 .$850.$45. Global investment demand for gold has moderated considerably over the past 18 months (down c. Investor demand for silver has been disappointing over the past several quarters. We expect that further economic recovery in the US and an acceleration of GDP growth in China could support silver industrial demand. with considerably less interest in the US.00 .40koz.800 Average: $1.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Daniel BREBNER Deutsche Bank.00 .400 . we expect that gold should continue to appreciate over the course of the year. Certainly.00 Average: $37. our conviction for continued structural strength in the gold market is being tested. but certainly from an investment perspective. Several board members ”thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or stop asset purchases well before the end of 2013. we note that the US Fed’s latest minutes suggest that there may be earlier-than-expected policy tightening. and given the likelihood that Chinese demand remains robust. 7 . US equities for example. 16% year on year for Q3 2012).670 W Pd Range: $625. There are legitimate arguments being made with respect to an inflection in performance. There are a number of risk factors which could push the market into a more significant deficit. Despite the issues highlighted above. US energy independence is a key contributor to this theme. the biggest of which is the potential closures coming out of an Amplats review.$1.000 Average: $1. with strong coin sales since the beginning of the year.$2. citing concerns about financial stability”.860 Of course. we expect that investment demand could improve in 2013. However. Our base case platinum supply-demand estimates suggest a net deficit of c.

Peter FERTIG Au QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. this also poses the key risk to prices: should ETP flows turn negative. The hurdles for gold are mounting from dollar strength to a softer physical market. which are another fundamental factor for silver.00 Average: $737. large speculators reduce holdings of gold futures.00 Average: $32. as industrial demand has softened but mine supply grows unabated to set fresh record highs.00 . prices will need a stimulant on the demand side to facilitate sustained gains. factors we do not expect to hinder gold in 2013. Thus. we believe silver investor interest has the scope to play catch-up and lead prices beyond the highs set in 2012. Should the gold market set a positive tone for trading. instead rallying amid a risk-on environment. sustained growth in sales is required before palladium demand can recover later in the year.25 W Pt Range: Average: $1. New York Range: $1. The change of fiscal and monetary policy in Japan towards a 2% inflation target makes gold a more attractive investment for Asian investors.500 . The market is set to deliver a wider surplus. with consumers well hedged. platinum demand is expected to increase and to lead to higher prices. it is less likely that the thresholds for an end of the ultra accommodative monetary policy will already be met this year. alongside platinum. uncertainty over the US debt ceiling vote and reduced risk premia in Europe should set a positive backdrop for gold. Given the soft demand conditions. which should lead to rising palladium prices this year. The automotive industry in the eurozone is being hit hard by the fiscal austerity dictated by the troika of EU. Also.690 W Pd Range: $590.390 . Outside state stock releases. we expect silver prices to remain volatile and the least supported across the sector. In our view. Also a rise of yields on longer-dated US Treasury notes and bonds would not be a rational reason to switch out of gold and into fixed nominal income assets. However. an improved economic outlook in major parts of the world should be supportive for silver. investor interest has a much larger gap to plug.00 Lack of conviction has tainted gold price action. palladium mine supply looks set to remain challenging.778 W Ag Range: $25. Given the dependence on non-fabrication demand. the supply from Russia is the crucial factor. given the fragile fabrication demand backdrop. in turn reducing the likelihood of voluntary cuts. Thus. GDP growth in China accelerates again. This should lead to an increase in investors’ risk appetite. particularly in Europe. the metal struggled to find meaningful support from its marginal cost of production.$840. Palladium is expected to perform better than platinum in 2013. We expect the market to deliver a second year in deficit in 2013 after a sizeable deficit in 2012. but fundamentals are set to evolve constructively over the course of 2013. we do not believe it will be plain sailing for palladium prices.50 Sentiment among many analysts turned negative for gold in 2013.540 . outperformance of alternative assets and rising real interest rates will dictate the turning point for prices. Quantitative easing by the Fed is not a necessary condition for firmer gold prices.$1.00 . In the eurozone. the trend is certainly supportive. palladium retains the strongest fundamentals across the precious metals and is set to deliver the widest deficit. In our view. On the supply side. the ECB is expected to reduce the repo rate to 0. a global economic recovery could also lead to support for silver via firmer crude oil prices. But unlike in the previous year. Beside support from the US dollar. Thus. The Fed might end or at least slow down outright buying of US Treasury notes and mortgagebacked bonds as early as mid-2013.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Suki COOPER Au Barclays Capital. providing a firmer footing for prices. Silver trades even more in line with other risky assets than gold. However. compounded by significant investment demand growth. the Fed Funds rate will probably be kept unchanged at the current level. This could drive gold down to test last year’s low. the economic recovery in the US.850 $1. while gold held across physically backed ETPs remains close to record highs despite price corrections. the factors mentioned earlier apply also. we believe risks remain to the downside for platinum in the near term. the reasons stated why gold should head lower are not convincing.50 . Although this implies that additional supply cutbacks are required for prices to move higher.$1.$1.50 Average: $33. ECB and IMF. Platinum found itself pulled and pushed by the escalation of supply disruptions in South Africa and tumbling European auto demand. this would send unaffected output above the cost of production. and we expect lack of fundamental support to remain the theme in 2013.775 W Ag Range: $26. even if mine production in South Africa were to return to the levels before the unrest broke out last year. Silver prices have been able to rally when industrial demand has been relatively firm. which we expect to materialise as inventory is run down and tighter auto emissions legislation is implemented. but in our view. Industry sources indicate that Russian inventories would decline and Russia would export less palladium. Furthermore. Furthermore. Indeed. However. with the real scope for growth only stemming from recycling. given that the demand picture looks soft in the near term. central bank buying continues. We retain a positive outlook on the market and continue to believe that rising market confidence. Although finished goods inventories have fallen. However. Beyond central bank balance sheet expansion. Labour unrests remain one of the risk factors for the PGMs on the supply side.$1. coin sales have recovered and speculative positioning has become more favourable. ETP holdings are below their peak. supply has not been constrained and inventory levels remain healthy. For the demand side. Thus. but despite this.675 W Pd Range: $625. Thus. with China’s palladium imports falling to the lowest level since February 2009. Palladium should also profit further from substitution process within the automobile sector. prices could tumble sharply.5%. Higher yields will probably be the result of a stronger US economy. which is favorable for gold. we expect auto demand to continue to grow in key palladium consuming regions such as North America and China in 2013.525 . and although not conclusive evidence of reduced state stock reserves. However. Silver found little support from its fundamentals last year. Thus.$38. On the supply side. China and other parts of Asia more than compensate for the woes of car manufacturers in Europe. 8 .$835. a number of positive macro catalysts still exist that could push prices significantly higher.00 Average: $736. the ECB is also determined to defend the euro. Thus. the euro might hold quite well against the US dollar or even firm slightly. and gold has struggled to establish its identity as a safe-haven asset.975 Average: $1. However.50 W Pt Range: $1.00 .$37. the market is expected to remain in a supply deficit.840 Average: $1. Furthermore. the supply deficit is expected to widen. the average price of gold is expected to increase in 2013.900 Average: $1. Hainburg Range: $1. However. Russian palladium shipments to Switzerland have also slowed significantly in 2012. silver is expected to profit also from a positive development of stock markets.

In the fabrication sector.85 W Pt Range: Average: $1. inflation seems set to remain under control in the near term at least and other investments such as equities could be more attractive than during 2012. we feel that the upside for silver prices is somewhat limited as investors may take profits and producers may choose to hedge their output if we approach $40/oz levels. Investors will therefore have some serious work to do if they are to drive silver prices higher this year. Increasing consumption rates may materialise in 2013 as the non-European economies recover.00 . industrial and other manufacturing demand for silver continues to be weak and will improve only slowly in 2013. Further falls in demand from photography and silverware sectors may exacerbate our negative price outlook.530 .675 $1.00 The gold price will likely soften over the year as world economies recover and the US dollar gains strength. This should boost asset prices.00 $745.720 Average: $1. There is. Despite all of the strikes. There may be a dampening effect from the slow European recovery.00 .$1. overall. especially as Euro VI comes in.00 Average: $700. we feel that further investor interest in silver should be forthcoming once again and there are reasonable prospects of higher prices later in the year. We feel that the euro will survive and that the global financial system’s health is slowly improving.475 . However. but the Indian authorities seem set to intervene further in the gold market.000 $1.00 W Pt Range: Average: $1. which should boost demand despite a weak European car market.480 . although it may not actually surpass the gold price in 2013 on average.000 is currently a rather distant target. continued deficits and an increased level of investor interest will be required to mop up this additional metal before the price truly starts to reflect the underlying fundamentals. This should allow investors to assess palladium on a fundamental basis: we believe that this will attract investment interest and boost prices in the longer term. and the recovering US economy will pull China and eventually Europe up behind it. soft demand meant that the platinum price performed rather unimpressively. 9 .575 W Pd Range: $600. A rising gold price is likely to provide one such reason and steady global economic growth could provide some additional price strength. It is now starting to trade less that $100/oz behind the gold price on a regular basis and we expect the gap to close over the course of 2013.700 W Pd Range: Average: $590.00 A developed world perspective on gold suggests that investors will have mixed motivations towards this metal in 2013. but higher recovery of metal from end-of-life recycling and the huge impact of last year’s one-off disruptions mean that.$800. but the shortage of metal in the market resulting from the South African labour unrest in 2012 will likely take effect when the fabricators scramble to meet needs after the 2013 contract rollovers. In the developing markets. Demand in most categories has been falling for a number of years. while mine production will rise.$1. Despite recent noises from the Federal Reserve. limiting the rate at which the price will rise. Should this category see liquidations in line with our thinking on gold. we foresee periods of price strength driving profit-taking from investors who already own palladium.00 . This suggests that the insurance premium for gold will diminish. Scrap recoveries may also increase as sellers take advantage of the high current prices.$31.$835. we expect to see widespread use of unconventional monetary policy in many countries and continued low or negative real interest rates too. though: we believe they would generally like to be long of this metal if given enough reasons to be optimistic. but the price should move up towards that of gold.785 W Ag Range: Average: $23. Chinese demand should remain strong. Given the weighty oversupply in preceding years. Since we expect a stronger gold price this year. Further rationalisation can be expected in the mining sector in South Africa. Dwindling shipments of state-owned metal from Russia have convinced the market that this source of metal is much less important than before. only the investment category has seen increased demand in the last three years. apparently. Platinum may follow the gold price initially. David JOLLIE Au Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc. while supplies will remain constrained. a large amount of stock in the hands of funds and fabricators. the fiscal cliff will likely be avoided.520 . In our main scenario of rising gold prices. possibly at the expense of a weak US dollar. over the next 12 months.$2. This usually occurs in the first quarter of each year.600 W Ag Range: $23.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart René HOCHREITER Au Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd. Continued growth in global car production will drive demand higher. However. due to low current prices. and the investment and jewellery sectors should see good demand as a result. The palladium price disappointed in 2012 despite the substantial fundamental deficit in this metal.$43. clear that the palladium market will be in deficit in 2013. London Range: Average: $1. New emissions legislation in 2013 to 2015 will show increased off-take in metal for the autocatalyst sector. We are cautiously bullish over the prospects for the silver price. then the price will likely see a steep decline if declining demand in the industrial and jewellery categories fall further. though. gold may lose some ground to platinum due to the latter metal’s more attractive price. The likelihood of a rebound in Chinese growth rates should also be positive for platinum demand and prices. Johannesburg Range: $1. However. the platinum market is unlikely to be significantly tighter in 2013 than it was in 2012. They showed some appetite for this in the second half of 2012. violence. and we do not foresee any return to higher levels of state sales.45 . but the available stocks will likely dampen any rapid upward movement. Silver will likely take its lead from gold and funds will respond algorithmically. to the detriment of demand. The palladium price is likely to remain flat even though the Russian stockpile appears to have been depleted.905 $1. we remain bullish for gold but less so than we were last year and feel that $2. which may need another four years to clear at current ‘de-stocking’ rates.00 $31. silver is likely to find some support and prices could firm.00 Average: $27. Recycling will likely decline as the incentive to recycle is less. closures and other problems affecting the platinum mining industry last year. However. We anticipate an improvement in economic conditions in 2013. This mildly positive fundamental picture could be enough to encourage investors. It is. Overall.$1.

we think the current gold cycle is likely to peak this year (on a quarterly average price basis – we have probably already seen the absolute high in US dollars). although there is a risk that the Indian government may introduce fresh policy measures to restrict bullion imports in the 2013/14 budget. One manifestation of that is that we expect platinum to regain its historical premium to gold.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Tom KENDALL Au Range: Average: Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd.$1. and we think 2013 will bring further prolonged periods of range trading in a low implied volatility environment. If this proves to be correct then the relative appeal of gold is likely to diminish as fear trades fade. the prospects for silver are solid: industrial demand should pick up as global growth accelerates. Fundamentally.20 W Pt Range: Average: $1.$1. we expect platinum to be trading consistently at a premium to gold. In the near term. nor much below $28/oz. we are cautious about the price prospects for both metals. That should help absorb some of the expansion in mine supply that we expect from both primary and by-product sources. 10 . We also prefer both main PGMs to gold. supply from South Africa should increase sequentially in the first quarter of this year as productivity continues to recover from the strikes of last year.30 $32.00 $725. Consequently.00 The 12-year-old US dollar gold bull market is not in the best of health: 2012 was a frequently trying year for gold traders and investors. albeit one that we would expect to dissipate rapidly. both through the back end of last year and again in early January. still well hedged for the next three to six months. In addition. Silver’s reputation as a defensive asset was damaged by the price’s 40% collapse and spike in volatility during the final months of 2011. prices could see a sharp correction. anticipating further supply-side cuts and improving demand. and we think large automotive users of the metal are. Hedge funds have recently been noted buyers. We retain our bullish structural view for both platinum and palladium.495 .$36. Physical demand from China and India is also expected to improve.00 . while holders of scrap are expected increasingly to liquidate inventories as prices rise. Our central macroeconomic case is that the acute phase of the global crisis is probably over and that there will be a slow improvement in global growth through the second half of the year.545 .90 . Prior to that. however. and by the end of this year. we expect both markets to tighten only slowly in the near term and for price performance to be stronger in the second half of this year than the first. Gold will continue to have a role in portfolios that seek diversification and long-term inflation protection. London $1. and central banks will remain net buyers of the metal in our view. aided in no small part by ambitious Chinese targets for new solar power-generating capacity. Consequently. Industrial and jewellery demand for PGMs was sluggish through most of the fourth quarter of last year. but an increasing number of investors are likely to switch their attention elsewhere this year. The price action since then suggests its image remains somewhat tarnished. and expect the latter to moderately outperform over the course of the year.$815. positioning and price may well have overrun the fundamentals.885 $1. But continued purchasing by investors is required to keep the price so far above its long-term historical mean.870 $1. particularly palladium. There is a risk that if Anglo American Platinum’s strategic review ‘disappoints’ the market.740 W Ag Range: Average: $27. in general.695 W Pd Range: Average: $620. So in the short term. however. The net result this year is likely to be a largely range-bound price: we do not expect silver to trade above $40/oz this year. a resumption of Treasury purchases by the US Federal Reserve and a battle over tax and spending plans in the US in late February/early March are expected to drive gold higher.

the decent recovery in platinum prices forecast here is largely dependent on concrete steps being taken during the course of 2013 to close down permanently loss-making South African mine production. First. looking at the metal’s supply/demand fundamentals.$43. economic conditions will encourage a high level of net bullion purchases from both the official sector and investors. This will eventually provide the conditions for the platinum market to shift from gross surplus to gross deficit. risks would seem to be stacked to the upside in terms of the scope for gold purchases as a means of reserves diversification. official sector purchases will still provide a floor to gold prices.642 .$875. 2013 ought to see silver recover further from its post-2011 bubble hangover and.$2. Secondly. with the latter assisted by the fact that manufacturers’ inventory levels are thought to be fairly low at the beginning of this year. that the market is overreacting and that gold will surprise to the upside in 2013. at what point do long-standing holders of palladium bullion stocks decide to sell these and take profits? The answer to that conundrum could well emerge during the course of 2013. Particularly important in terms of the outlook for investment this year is that there is no scope for short-term interest rate rises in any of the three major currency blocs. on the fiscal front.40 Average: $35. Fabrication should be supported by a better tone to the Chinese economy this year and a rebound in Indian demand from 2012’s especially weak performance. it is unlikely to be enough on its own to change radically the overall platinum supply/demand balance.535 . while expected growth in Chinese jewellery consumption is not without significance.) Other positives will be little or no supply growth. will also play an important role in gold demand given the expected pick-up in growth in these countries.$1. especially in Japan. trade into the low $40s. Given the robust negative relationship between gold prices and US Treasury yields. In the absence of such an expected move from producers in South Africa.50 .500 . These solid fundamentals coupled with rising prices should encourage speculative interest in palladium. before the year is out. Mitul KOTECHA Credit Agricole. particularly China and India.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Philip KLAPWIJK Au Thomson Reuters GFMS. progress in reducing deficits will be slow and government debt ratios will rise to levels that in the case of the United States should see it lose its AAA status.002 Average: $1. Hong Kong Range: $1. albeit more slowly than it did in 2012. we look for a gradual decline in gold prices. continued balance sheet expansion and currency debasement will imply that gold prices remain supported.830 Average: $1. Firstly. Second. and our expectations that US Treasury yields will rise in coming months. autocatalyst demand will remain bogged down by the key European diesel car market remaining depressed. we expect a trend of improving risk appetite to weigh on gold prices into 2013. Russian State stock sales are expected to diminish further. And. though.$1.890 Average $1. gold’s recent lacklustre price performance together with an excessively bearish interpretation of the latest FOMC minutes have depressed sentiment towards the yellow metal. the scope for price appreciation this year would be severely constrained by the generally limited prospects for fabrication demand growth.650 quarters.847 W Ag Range: $29. Supply growth will. due to a further advance in global gasoline-powered light vehicle output and further substitution from platinum to palladium. in spite of a growing but limited contribution from HDD. driving up prices further. First. It may be. The market is far too sanguine about the longer-run implications of that likely development. Second. This expectation should foster increased speculative demand for the white metal. And. despite the slower pace compared to past 11 . especially as they diversify from the dollar and euro. the impact of supply growth from autocatalyst recycling may be partly offset by any long-term cuts to South African mine production capacity being initiated this year. Assuming that the usual relationship between gold prices and risk aversion reasserts itself. at anything close to prevailing gold prices. A vital question then is. with only a marginal gain in mine production expected and scrap is set to fall unless prices are a good deal higher. in addition. autocatalyst demand for palladium will rise. and a fair improvement in industrial demand. Although benefiting from gold’s positive outlook. (Indeed. Indeed.00 Average $753. Specifically. In short.60 W Pt Range: $1.00 . The path of gold prices will hinge in part on the stance of central banks in two ways. the ‘surplus’ in the market is unlikely to grow and may even contract somewhat. further loosening of monetary policy is probable.755 W Pd Range: $646. Palladium is the only one of the four major precious metals currently in a gross deficit and this gap between supply and fabrication demand should be broadly sustained in 2013. In addition. especially in diesel powered light vehicles. at best. as the multi-year rise in global mine production stalls. Emerging economies. As regards the former. Hong Kong Au Range: $1. Gold will be a major beneficiary. An important plank in this argument is that silver will outperform gold on the latter’s move higher. be very modest.00 At the time of writing. these may actually improve a little or at least not deteriorate any further. a narrowing of the silver:gold ratio from the current 55:1 to comfortably below 50:1 is probable if prices rise as forecast.

$990. high production costs and better demand are projected to lift palladium sharply higher towards the latter part of 2013. The current platinum price of around $1. and for many years to come.844 W Pd Range: Average: $632. where recently higher currency and higher wages are pushing the cost structure higher. Victoria Au Range: $1. In addition. it is too early to react to this possibility through much of 2013.025 Average: $1. which has helped to place palladium prices on a higher trajectory. Given improved autocatalyst demand in the US.00 . Toronto $1. Curtailed Russian and South African supply. According to the TDS supply/demand model. somewhat like 2008. would win the day for gold. Silver should be a top-performing precious metal in 2013. China and across the globe. is the biggest factor behind our optimism. it looks set to benefit from its quasi-money properties and the global macroeconomic trends.00 $40. This is due to poor growth prospects for the South African mining sector and the loss of some 600 koz of production in the country throughout 2012. ongoing investment demand. central banks look set to use gold again as a way to diversify their FX reserves. however. it should outperform gold with a price materially above $44/oz when it reaches its late-2013 highs. and it certainly proved to be such a year for us. 12 . As such. which implies higher per unit clearing price on the margin.768 2013 could see a similar pattern unfold. perceived higher country risk is forcing higher discounts on cash flows originating in South Africa. following a lacklustre performance for much of 2011.950 $1. be a contest between “recession/slow growth” and monetary “reflation”. The price needs to rise materially in order to provide incentives to build new mines. and higher industrial/ fabrication use in 2013. This has already attracted greater speculative and investor interest recently.$2. silver prices are projected to be supported by tighter supply/ demand fundamentals as industrial/investor demand outpaces the increase in global supply growth. The economic environment around the world and in the US is still quite poor.00 $874. Other positive factors include continued central bank purchases of gold.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Bart MELEK Au Range: Average: TD Securities. strong consumer demand in China to help offset some further possible (policy-induced) deterioration of gold demand in India. implying a greater chance that central banks around the world.895 W Ag Range: Average: $26. We forecast correctly that 2012 would. implying the need for higher nominal earnings for any given operation. should help our global liquidity measures and push gold prices somewhat higher. in response to a likely ‘Grexit’ – eurozone downsizing – and further financial problems around the world. Given the metal’s higher volatility. gold went more or less sideways on the back of only modest increases in global liquidity. TD Securities expects this metal to be very near a deficit through the balance of the year. But it is precisely these factors that preclude central banks adopting monetary policy ‘exit strategies’ in 2013. instead of averaging $1.$48.00 While we agree that the eventual reversal of the Fed’s ultra accommodative monetary stance will sufficiently impact investment demand to depress gold prices. not much has changed in the outlook – other than the likelihood of a eurozone breakup in 2013 appears to have declined.600/ oz is set to jump higher in 2013. and the rather tepid increases in new mine supply. Fundamentally. likely buying another 500 tonnes in 2013.52 W Pt Range: Average: $1. keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold low. should help to keep investment demand strong. the palladium deficit looks set to be quite deep over the next several years. with recession/slow growth/disinflation pulling gold downwards and monetary reflation (i. stronger fabrication activity demand resulting from improving global economic conditions and relatively muted supply growth are another set of factors that make us believe gold should perform very well in 2013. But we bet that reflation. particularly in South Africa.527 . New targeting of higher implied and actual inflation levels by some major central banks. Meanwhile.$1. We thought 2012 would prove to be a difficult year for forecasters.e. the quiet transformation of gold into an acceptable financial asset once again. Like gold. The major negative factors include weak growth and disinflation tendencies around the world. with a considerable risk of a shortage. are likely to ease policy further. The Fed’s $85 billion/month QE programme throughout the year should prevent the yield curve from steepening too much.475 . Martin MURENBEELD DundeeWealth Economics. The expectations of an increasingly tight market in 2013.00 . Meanwhile. our forecast has come down modestly from that of last year.835 as forecast. and massive and rising balance sheet positions.012 $1. Growing activity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. along with rising inflation expectations. it looks like the platinum market may end up in a very significant deficit of some 400 koz in both 2013 and 2014. But Draghi/ECB will have to make good on the “we’ll do whatever it takes” promise in 2013. which together with an increase of $1 trillion in the Fed’s balance sheet in 2013 and more QE from the Bank of Japan.$2.510 . the Fed’s QE of $85 billion/month) no more than managing to keep gold prices stable. the price increase could be considerable as this market may need to clear in ‘auction’ price territory (above the cost curve). We were wrong. along with supply side constraints. Because we have raised the probability of a sideways pattern for gold. including the Fed.

but we also anticipate more investment demand for physical platinum in 2013. the onus is increasingly on the silver bulls to prove the case. declining volatility and extended periods of range trading. In particular.00 .00 . coupled with ongoing robust demand from the auto sector. effectively capping the rallies.$1. as always. if not Q2. the solar cell industry will recover for sure.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Eddie NAGAO Au Range: Average Sumitomo Corporation. Silver will basically move in line with gold. The prospect of further supply-side disruptions from South Africa from the unions. the price risk is very much to the upside as high production costs have placed a floor under this market. On the demand side.800 $1. this will be driven partly by a further recovery in the global economy. On the demand side. We expect the platinum price to overtake the gold price in 2013. we expect the global economy to stabilise. given that margins are already slim. and 2) a higher portion of ‘flight investment’ from the US has been for silver rather than gold. led especially by the US and China.00 $725. we expect a recovery in the auto sector and a further shift from platinum to palladium in autocatalysts.$900.$34. In essence. We expect some softness in silver prices during 2013. We expect palladium to move into a supply deficit of about 450.895 $1. a single-digit percentage increase may feel like a bear market. we think that the stockpile is already much depleted and. a number of South African mines go onto care and maintenance then this could potentially exacerbate supply tightness further. London W Ag Range: Average: $26. there is a danger that sharp rises will be seized upon by producers as an opportunity to sell forward. in the second half of the year. Russian state stocks are presumed to be nearly exhausted. there is a distinct chance that Russian metal may be withheld from the market. As for industrial demand. The key issues will be ongoing central bank purchases and growth in investment demand. a rise in real US interest rates will prompt a shift of money from gold and silver to industrial commodities. which after a stellar 10-year run. we see dollar firmness and a fading of the fear trade providing a drag on rising gold prices.$1. where the mining industry is struggling severely with cost increases and labour disputes.$1. for the latter. and Russian ore grades are reducing.$1. looks vulnerable as the fear trade evaporates and speculators look to reduce their positions commensurately.736 We see the long-term gold bull run remaining very much intact. The key issue determining the palladium price outlook. Ross NORMAN Sharps Pixley Ltd.625 W Pd Range: Average $550. which should ensure that prices remain firm in 2013. As with platinum. there are still concerns as 75% of supply comes from South Africa. Tokyo $1.50 . 13 .450 . we anticipate that palladium will be the bestperforming commodity in the year ahead.16 W Pt Range: Average: $1. looks likely to ensure that platinum prices remain firm in 2013. In the case of the former.$35.711 W Pd Range: Average: $675. this being partially offset by a reduction in speculator positions and moderately lower Indian demand as import duties are raised again. setting the scene for potentially far higher prices than those that we have forecast here. to push gold up to the year’s high in Q1. We may see a little further push to the downside in the white metal for two reasons: 1) there is no central bank buying to support the silver price.00 $31. If. Silver has consistently been the top performer within the commodity complex but is looking increasing like an aging rock star – a little past its best. as expected.00 $28. For a market used to a 17% year-on-year gain. but a lot of technology is shifting to thin film from thick film.$820. particularly in the US. With its recent history of price spikes.00 We expect continued political upheavals.800 $1.25 W Pt Range: Average $1.00 . which arises in March 2013 – a fudged outcome could of course generate far higher outcomes than shown above. This will leave the palladium market increasingly reliant on South Africa. gold will continue to be seen as cheap insurance for those concerned with tail risk and is a high-quality asset that holds value amidst competitive devaluations of currencies. will be the perennial question over Russian metal sales from stocks and from production. coupled with re-stocking in the second half. and this will stimulate investors to change their asset allocations. We forecast a weak start to the year on US dollar firmness before good demand from industrial applications as global IP picks up.550 . where higher returns can be expected. As such. equities and real estate.00 $787. but the conviction and patience of gold investors may be tested in 2013.600 W Ag Range: Average $23. we see 2013 looking surprisingly like 2012 – that is modest price gains. However. Against the backdrop of an improving macroeconomic environment.450 . Around 35% of global palladium demand needs to be met from recycling and stock drawdowns. The caveat to this is the US debt ceiling issue.00 Au Range: Average: $1. With an improving economic backdrop giving rise to higher global IP – and in particular the growth in HDD catalyst demand for commercial vehicles – this gives scope for strong demand in a supply-constrained market. On the supply side.000 ozs in 2013 as production is mothballed in South Africa. Broadly speaking though. especially in countries that have just faced or will face a change of leadership.800 $1. With primary mine production continuing to rise to new record highs.545 .

640 W Pd Range: $630. motivate silver to temporarily decorrelate from gold. gold closed at $1.520 . just marginally bullish.$1. Both white metals have performed well last year despite the subdued global growth.00 Au Range: $1.00 . Possible speculative interest could. More strikes remain possible in 2013 but probably on a reduced scale.00/ oz. As we don’t expect any significant increase in physical demand. due to portfolio diversification/ protection aiming to reduce credit risk. The significant accumulation of physical gold over the last three years. Despite its industrial character. we expect the upside momentum to slow down. This could result in higher volatility and interesting gold price action.6% higher than the opening price on 2 January 2013. especially from the automotive industry. Increased investors buying interest on the back of more diversified ‘precious metals’ portfolios could be one the factors contributing to the upside trend in 2013. 2012 resulted in a significant slowdown. after having traded in a wide range of $10.664. a performance very much in line with gold. While we still are in a bull trend.A. with the market entering a ‘consolidation’ phase.16% higher at the end of 2012.580 . is likely to slightly slow down in the coming few months as the global economic crisis seems to be more or less contained. 14 . with a close at $699.5 throughout the year.$39. as well as a cautious attitude toward credit risk-taking are some of the factors that should help gold to gradually move higher over the course of the year. Negative real interest rates and monetary generosity in the USA and EU. all fundamentals remain positive for gold and we expect the yellow metal to again trade over $1. as in the past years.. about 4. and traded in a $254/oz range.753 On 31 December 2012.750 Average: $1.$810. Another year of decent performance for palladium (+6.17/oz or 4 % higher at 29.00 Average: $34. greater industrial demand in PGMs can be expected on the back of a global recovery. Geneva W Ag Range: $27.800/oz. fiscal austerity. from time to time.00 . In our opinion.880 Average: $1. both by the private and official sectors.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Frederic PANIZZUTTI MKS (Switzerland) S. The expectation of a recovery in global growth in Q4 2013 could result in a renewed increase in industrial demand. silver will trade in line with gold. Ultimately.0)/oz on 31 December 2012. we remain.00 W Pt Range: $1. 2013 is likely to have another singledigit performance.95. the level in demand from China will remain a prevailing and key driving factor for the silver price in 2013. Industrial growth during the last quarter of 2012.$1. should support the palladium uptrend over the year ahead. We expect some shift of physical from the West to East in the coming months on the expectation that major Asian currencies will strengthen. resulting in more buying interest from this region.00 Average: $740. Possible signs of growth and inflation in Q4 seem likely. we had expected more speculative interest and action in palladium to add some volatility and to gradually push the metal higher. Silver closed $1. Platinum closed 8.91%). The major strikes experienced in 2012 and the resulting disruption in metal extraction caused a temporary imbalance in the markets. Compared to the previous few years’ doubledigit performance. As in past years. In 2013.

With the plunge over the fiscal cliff in the US only temporarily averted.795 and low of $1.00 $745 Last year was the 12th consecutive year with a positive gold price performance. But the critical factor in this market is the supply side. and non-Western central banks continue to diversify their dollar holdings into the yellow metal.745 W Ag Range: Average: $29.727 Perhaps the most striking feature of 2012 was the sharply reduced level of price volatility across the whole precious metals complex. Different factors led to this result and they will further influence the gold price in 2013.25 Au Range: Average: $1. which has the potential to spur prices. accelerating economic growth in China will spur gold demand in the biggest market besides India.790 $1. As a well-known fact. Although some will be disappointed with gold’s performance last year. which culminated in a record price of $1.920 and a trading range between the high and low point of $610 or 46%. providing a platform for another positive year for gold. any break outside of this range is likely on the upside as private investors keep their trust in gold to build on the 2. use of both metals was almost equal. Range: Average: $25. palladium demand in the car industry was twice as high as platinum demand. Still influenced by the price bubble from late 2010/ early 2011.$1. But I remain firmly in the other corner and view 2012 as a year of solid consolidation. which pushed gold prices higher. as wildcat strikes in South Africa proved last year.$36. the economic crisis increased the investment demand. Decreasing ore grades in some countries signal that mining might swing to a lower growth path in 2013. which may increase the price. Investors and industry should also consider that the concentration of palladium mining in Russia and South Africa could lead to constrained supply. Last year.00 .670 W Pd Range: Average: $620. the problems in the eurozone deferred but not resolved. a situation which may not change until 2014. Low demand for diesel engines.4 billion) of ETF holdings already accumulated. it managed to end with an encouraging 9% gain. On the other hand. Nevertheless. However. too.20 W Pt Range: Average: $1. Jeffrey RHODES INTL Commodities. Furthermore. However. silver was settling during the last months. I expect furthermore constrained supply from South Africa and Russia this year. with an increase in the annual average price of $6%. as well as ongoing efforts to substitute platinum with cheaper palladium in catalysts for gasoline engines.25 $36.925 $1. with the base line of support being raised to $1. but the first year since 2007 without new all-time high.00 . the search for yield goes on and will keep gold centre stage as an attractive asset class for money managers. which should result in somewhat higher prices. while in 2006.$1. it still managed to post a The gloomy state of the global economy that prevailed for much of 2012 took its toll on industrial demand and silver posted a decline of just under 12% in its average price. in my view. although year on year. gold demand in Western markets decreased considerably due to saturation.40 $33.620 .75 . ETC demand.380 tons ($126. Given the fact that the ‘industrial precious metal’ appears to be underpinned by strong technical support at $26.$1.800 now providing a stiff overhead technical barrier that could prove tough to penetrate. 2012 proved to be much less dramatic as the prevailing universal bullishness dissipated and gold settled into a period of quiet consolidation within a relatively narrow trading range of $268 or 18% between the year’s high of $1.410 . The record-breaking march of gold upwards had seen the yellow metal post a series of all-time highs in 2011.$820. matching the gains posted in the DJIA. and gold ‘out of the headlines’. are two ingredients that would not indicate higher platinum prices in 2013. I expect that silver will tend to the upper half of the 2012 price range as modest economic growth in all major markets except the eurozone will increase industrial demand. the price is well supported by low interest rates in all major currency areas. 2009 and 2010.500. Last year. Stuttgart $1. The fact that gold’s annual rate of capital gain last year was well below the annual average increase of 18% since the bull market started in 2001 has prompted some long-lost bears to emerge from the woods. with a clear break having silver bugs (including me) talking once again about a price north of $50.527.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Thorsten PROETTEL Au Range: Average: Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg (LBBW).850 $1.$50. But after a surge in 2008. I would now expect silver (as a cheap safe-haven proxy for the yellow metal) to probe the key area of resistance on the charts located between $35 and $38 in 2013. as well as physical investment demand. and the uncertain global economic outlook likely to keep interest rates in the West close to zero. and my view on gold is mildly bullish.525 . we could well be in for another year of reduced volatility with the price largely contained within these parameters. reached lower 2007 levels and I expect them not to resurge in 2013. This trend will proceed. with $1. 15 . Dubai W Ag year-on-year gain of 7%.

but we do not believe the marginal increase in output will be sufficient to deter a rally. Global economic growth is expected to improve during 2013. Robust mine supply increases are likely. This improvement in global economic growth is expected to help increase demand for the metal in industrial uses. Mine supply is likely to grow moderately.00 Au Range: Average: $1.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Rohit SAVANT CPM Group.850 $1. argues for higher prices and is an important component in our bullish outlook.400 .760 Gold should derive support from ongoing accommodative monetary policies by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. which sells cars with platinum-intensive catalysts. Structural problems in the South African platinum mining industry are expected to continue underpinning platinum prices. driving higher the price of the metal. notably in China.658 Gold prices are expected to remain at historically elevated levels during 2013. South African mine supply growth is limited due to a range of factors.00 Au Range: Average: $1. based on HSBC currency research forecasts.00 W Pt Range: $1. Investors seeking hard assets may also target platinum. Even investors who believe QE policies will be ineffective may be attracted to gold as an inflation hedge of as a quality asset. Palladium prices are expected to rise in 2013. Supply tightness should also help rally palladium prices in 2013.00 .875 Average: $1. The official sector is likely to be a strong source of demand in 2013. Silver prices are forecast to move in a range between $26 and $36 during 2013.00 . Expectations that European economic growth will improve during the second half of the year could help revive the European auto market. but this will probably be offset by an increase in auto scrap recycling.00 $682. safety-related and technical work stoppages.00 Average: $32. We expect retail investment demand for coins and small bars to improve this year but to remain volatile. Silver may also benefit from limited scope for scrap supply increases. The likelihood of diminishing Russian stockpile exports. Global auto demand should increase.00 $30. we are moderately bullish on silver prices this year due to a recovery in manufacturing demand. We anticipate silver exchange traded fund demand to grow further in 2013 as uncertain economic conditions make it likely that investors will seek out hard assets. higher prices are required to increase platinum production longer term. including silver. based on HSBC forecasts of industrial production.00 Average: $666. After weakening in 2012.600 W Pd Range: Average: $560. but they do not intend to chase the price higher.$1. but they have become more price sensitive.$1. and should help limit rallies. based on production schedules. This is expected to keep silver range-bound during the year. due to dwindling stocks. Based on costs in local currency terms. An improvement in global economic growth is expected to increase demand from autocatalysts and from the semiconductor industry.00 . and it is becoming increasingly clear to investors that the doomsday predictions related to these issues are unlikely to materialise. albeit at a sluggish pace. notably industrial. as emerging market central banks are likely to keep accumulating gold as one strategy to diversify their foreign exchange holdings. A modestly stronger euro in 2013. Platinum prices are expected to improve in 2013 compared with 2012 as global economic growth shows relative strength. The outlook for Russian production is unenthusiastic due to limited nickel output from which it is derived as a by-product. After a weak 2012.950 $1. Continued substitution of platinum with palladium in diesel autocatalysts should further aid growth in palladium fabrication demand.450 . based on lower ore grades. Russian output may also decline. adding metal to their holdings on price declines and holding back from making purchases when prices rise.70 W Pt Range: Average: $1. Platinum has a multitude of industrial applications that would benefit from a strengthening in economic growth. palladium demand should benefit from any growth in auto and industrial demand. Low prices may allow platinum jewellery to win market share from gold. Scrap supplies. we believe. As with platinum. Indian consumption should partially recover based on historical consumption patterns and we anticipate strong Chinese import demand.$1. James STEEL HSBC. Central banks are expected to continue buying gold to diversify their large foreign exchange reserves. but the popularity of gasoline-fired engines in vehicles produced for the North American and emerging markets is positive for palladium as these vehicles rely primarily on palladium-heavy autocatalysts and use proportionately far more palladium than diesel-fueled vehicles. The relatively lower price of platinum compared with gold is also expected to help boost demand for the metal from the jewellery sector. An increase in fabrication demand coupled with potential for losses in mine supply is expected to drive investors toward this market. The lack of urgency results from the fact that many of the problems that are cited as reasons to purchase gold – such as the debt and deficit issues of governments around the world. Silver market investors are expected to remain price sensitive during 2013.525 .$782.710 W Pd Range: $576. Investors thus continue to add gold to their long-term portfolios against longterm economic difficulties. The investment demand for palladium could be stimulated by concerns over Russian stockpile declines.750 $1. the weakening of major currencies and monetary accommodation by central banks – are already factored into the price. We expect platinum to rally this year due principally to supply tightness. which is expected to be supportive of prices. Jewellery demand is also expected to rise as consumers get accustomed to high silver prices.575 . but are unlikely to reach record high levels during the year.$36. Similarly. falling ore grades and rising costs. 16 .00 .$37. which should underpin prices.$1.$850. while ample. South African output increases will be limited by platinum production. New York W Ag Range: Average: $26. are unlikely to rise at current price levels. compared to 2012. would also likely buoy gold. These are structural issues that are expected to take years to be resolved. Industrial demand should rise sufficiently to raise demand and outstrip the ability of mining output to keep pace. Platinum’s widespread and unique applications in many industrial and technological processes make it relatively price inelastic. New York W Ag Range: $27. Investors still see many reasons to hold at least some portion of their wealth in gold.

will help compensate for ongoing weakness in European auto sales. On the fundamental side.100 $1. if indeed worsen. 2) the threat of a sharp lift in the supply of stockpiled autocat recycling (more palladium-intensive) and 3) its typically illiquid trading conditions (pronounced during periods of macro uncertainty).744 Average: $1.00 .00 W A year of consolidation beckons for the platinum group metals. and 2) given the likelihood this will lead to a US downgrade. The rate of autocat recycling is a swing factor worth watching. the threat of further supply issues and potential restructuring of unprofitable mines raise platinum’s price floor and provide upside risks in 2013. We expect platinum’s price to tracks gold’s. its upside may be limited by: 1) an absence of a China stimulus. after being largely ignored for much of 2012. While palladium’s price should track that of platinum’s. Nevertheless. Hence.00 . are key supports of our outlook. The introduction of Euro 6 for HDD this year. While physical demand may remain sluggish.575 . could investment come to the rescue and tip the scales in favour of higher prices? The fact that both the platinum and palladium markets are beginning 2013 with historically long speculative positions would seem to preclude this.$782. we are estimating a small recovery in demand next year. especially as risk sentiment remains generally buoyant. a shift in investor sentiment towards palladium is helping overcome these constraints – particularly as this white metal plays catch-up. together with the view that major central banks will maintain loose monetary policies for longer. The price is therefore likely to be more buoyant than what may be suggested by supply and demand fundamentals. On the other hand.900 W Range: Average: $26. official sector buying and demand from more strategic.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Glyn STEVENS INTL Commodities. should support auto and industrial demand growth. Barring any major risk-off event. palladium exhibits the most robust fundamentals.00 $780.538 Pd Range: Average: $576. we expect this trend to continue in 2013 against the backdrop of persistent QE from the Fed and loose monetary policy from other key central banks. Ongoing uncertainty around US fiscal issues. 17 . Relatively better growth conditions should drive autocat demand growth.00 $666. Further unrest is almost inevitable as social conditions deteriorate and the power struggle both between and within the unions continues.00 $36. A weaker Japanese yen outlook also means that traditional flight-to-quality flows could be redirected to gold. and for light-duty diesel in 2014. it is ultimately investor appetite that drives silver’s price action. A better 2013 growth story. Joni TEVES UBS. at a time when primary supply remains constrained and Russian state stock sales are estimated to fall to just 200 koz in 2013. Implications of South Africa’s strike in the second half of 2012. Despite downside risks to fundamental demand.$1. In terms of day-to-day direction.$1. Silver is set to outperform in the current accommodative policy environment.80 W Range: Average: $1. Mine supply this year is expected to be broadly unchanged. the logical outcome in terms of price is a year for the relative status quo. London Pt Range: $1. whilst the labour situation in South Africa is far from settled.740 Au Range: Average: Ag Pt Pd Range: Average: $560. Given this precariously balanced demand versus supply scenario. quality investors will compensate. London W $1. The situation is further complicated by the niggling doubt in the back of many people’s minds as to whether ESKOM will be able to keep the lights on.500 . though. albeit still subdued. silver lacks its own internal drivers and should continue to look to gold for guidance.875 $1.$47.386 .00 We remain gold bulls. The predicted meteoric rise of the BRIC nations has yet to materialise. The US may be the one bright light. but the risks remain to the downside given an ongoing subdued global growth environment. Unattractive 2012 prices incentivised collectors to stock build and this supply will likely be unlocked by higher prices in 2013. the economic woes of the developed and developing world look set to continue. but it should outperform during ‘risk-on’ events. The avoidance of the fiscal cliff and expected back-loading of spending cuts are positive for gold: 1) to the extent that the dollar weakens on disappointment from those who are hoping for more fiscal restraint. Continued Fed balance sheet expansion amid subdued growth plus the ECB’s OMT plus further easing by Bank of Japan are all gold price-supportive. producers are operating perilously close to costs of production. and remaining constrained further out. Of the precious pack.$850. On the one hand.$2.00 . The threat of more illegal strike action looms large and the bi-annual wage negotiation season in Q2/Q3 offers significant risks. whereas Europe seems to plunge further into the mire with each passing month.

On the demand front.000 Average: $1. Mumbai $1. As a result. but its downside potential is greater later on. on market anticipations of that evolution. Gold will continue to be the most important store of value in all portfolios.670 W Ag Range: Average $23. including physical demand from China and India. A turnaround in gold’s fortune in 2013 will likely prompt a sharp decline in interest in silver. Bhargava VAIDYA Au Range: Average: BN Vaidya & Associates.515 . and this will be reflected notably by redemptions from ETFs. A higher gold price in the first half of 2013 should be supportive of platinum investment demand as well. whether from strikes.00 . be limited by pockets of strength. The expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet through QE3 should be supportive for the metal.850 Average: $1.865 Gold is tightly linked with the expansion of money supply.00 Average: $780.$2. the rate of growth in vehicle sales in the US is expected to slow in 2013. The past volatility of silver has scared off many investors. European car sales are not expected to contract in 2013. As a geared play on gold. Overall.00 Average: $39. 18 .00 . These all should have a negative impact on price. The outlook beyond that will largely depend on the evolution of central banks’ monetary policy and equally. The market has been in surplus over the past several years. A moderate pick-up in global economic growth should be supportive for silver industrial demand.530 .Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Anne-Laure TREMBLAY BNP Paribas. Tail risks concerning a break-up of the eurozone have declined. The relationship with gold will support some investment. however. where there are limited growth prospects. On the demand side. The size of the market deficit should in turn attract investors to this market.00 Au Range: $1. mothballing of mines or safety-related closures.00 $30. The eurozone debt crisis and US economy issues will at times bring in some volatility. but this will not make up for lower investor interest. Overall demand for gold should come down. After a dismal 2012. The poor health of the world economy will affect industrial demand for silver. and this is expected to remain so in 2013. at least in the first half of 2013. The severe disruptions to production subsided towards the end of 2012. Platinum’s fate is tied to the evolution of South African mine supply. Supply of scrap should increase. Mine supply depends heavily on South Africa and Russia. Fabrication demand for silver for silverware and jewellery is also reducing. but we expect a pick-up in Chinese auto sales. but the ongoing stand-off between Democrats and Republicans around the issue of the deficit may prompt some safe-haven buying.50 .705 W Pd Range: $600. Palladium has strong fundamentals and we expect the price to reflect this state of affairs. we believe that the palladium price has the most upside potential. silver moves tend to be sharper than its precious metal counterpart.25 W Gold bull run should slow down due to reduced liquidity.800 $1. The market is currently near balance. London W Ag Range: $25. After a final rally in the next few months. In countries such as India. a systematic attempt is being made to introduce new paper products and bring out old gold hoardings to reduce gold physical demand/imports.$1. but any production losses would tip it into deficit.475 .$940. the auto industry is expected to drive demand for the metal higher.$45. Over the course of 2013. we believe that the worst is now behind us. The downside will.05 W Pt Range: $1. and official buying. although growth will likely be subdued. we expect gold prices to peak in mid-2013.$1. in our view. but important risks persist. particularly in the US. silver has more upside potential in the first part of 2013.$37. This will reduce long-term committed funds for this metal.

seems to be sufficiently hedged and stocked – especially with the light vehicle production in Europe being rather subdued. Market players will hence watch carefully any rumours. While India is unlikely to deliver a major positive stimulus because of that.$2. With depleted Russian stocks – hence being unable to sell in periods of strong prices – South Africa will come to the fore as number one producing country. That leaves palladium vulnerable to the same supply risks as platinum – with the same open question: to what degree is that factor already priced in? Demand out of the automobile industry continues to be promising. Keeping the muted demand picture in mind. Though inflation is currently not of major concern. The only question is to what extent potential further labour action.$35. Price swings are characteristic for investment markets.50 W Pt Range: $1. the upside remains capped! South Africa will dominate the price action on the platinum market in 2013.00 Au Range: $1.00 . with the sector remaining in consolidation mode. we consider a fundamental deficit as unlikely. the trend towards more fuel-efficient cars.00 .000 Average: $1. silver heavily depends on the demand side of the market. As long as the environment of negative real interest rates persists. from a pure fundamental point of view. With fabrication demand unable to absorb the surplus. data and figures that could imply a possible change in monetary policy. Even diesel-driven engines deliver signals of becoming a supportive demand factor for the metal.500 . buying interest from the photovoltaic industry – one of the most recent physical demand drivers – is forecast to be subdued. An increasing portion of secondary supply will add significantly to the supply side and thus reduce risks of shortage. it will increase credit demand and the velocity of money. especially since it might attract speculative buying. The jewellery industry has recently been less supportive.00 Average: $31. The weak rupee together with increased duties dampened demand in 2012. 19 . Investors will remain on the buy side as long as gold performs well. however. gold is caught between a questionable US budget compromise and initial signals that the Fed might slow down its quantitative easing programmes sooner than widely expected. While this initially implicates higher inflation rates (gold positive) it also paves the way for higher interest (gold negative!).895 Average: $1. but also volatility sensitive. Automobile demand in emerging markets is much more focused on petroleum powered cars – hence a palladium factor – than in diesel engines. physical consumers are not only price. China and India in particular have recently shown good buying on price dips out of that sector and we expect this bargain-hunting to persist. With no shortage of supply. Further escalation. The trend towards substitution of platinum by cheaper palladium represents an additional source of demand that will continue to accelerate. If the global economy manages to gain traction.751 At the time of writing. Cheap money has been one of the major triggers behind the metal’s recent bull trend.$1. gold will remain on the shopping list of investors though. However. electricity supply disruptions and general instability have already been priced in. After a decade of decline.00 Average: $700. Hanau W Ag Range: $29. This adds to the increasingly volatile gold price itself. electricity price increases.Please click on the icons to return to relevant chart Alexander ZUMPFE Heraeus. the upside is also limited.690 W Pd Range: $550. The top of this price action is hard to predict. which is likely to set a floor to the price. Yet. The number one consumer. the automobile industry.$800. Additionally. the demand from the photography industry will not go down much further. However. Purchasing from the jewellery industry traditionally reacts in a price-sensitive way. While the metal is traditionally overdrawing developments of the gold price. Central banks are likely to diversify further away from the US dollar into gold. it is unclear to what extent that demand comes out of the investment or the jewellery sector. In an environment where gold may struggle to move higher. with growth in gasoline-driven light vehicle output in emerging markets being intact. We expect palladium to relatively outperform platinum in 2013 and 2014. it will gain some of its own stimulus from fabrication demand if global growth accelerates. investment demand will continue to play a pivotal role. remains intact. it is increasingly vulnerable to lose market share against other asset classes. However. combined with production disruptions can result in another round of price spikes. silver ETF holdings are still near their multi-year highs.550 . Rising production costs will weigh on the profitability of miners. we expect China to remain a stable and supportive factor. it will remain at the back of investors’ minds. However. bearing a smaller PGM load.

Next best was Tom Kendall’s price prediction for platinum (0. although they were more bullish in their predictions compared to the actual average price outturn for 2012.572 $35.00 $1.50 2012 Forecast Winners René Hochreiter Thorsten Proettel Tom Kendall Frederic Panizzutti Company Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd LBBW Credit Suisse MKS (Switzerland) S.1% and 2.52 2012 Year Average $1.669 $31.720 $733.8% difference from the average price).11 $1.650 $31. predicting a 12. who was in contention to win in two metal categories but unfortunately lost out marginally in both. Forecasters were also bullish about the palladium price.412 $655. with differences of 1.565 $662. Metal 2011 Average Price $1.00 Average Forecast 2012 $1. The prediction closest to the average price wins (based on the average $ daily pm fixing price).624 $735. 20 . Forecasters correctly predicted price rises in 2012 for gold.96 $1.552 $644.33 Winning Forecast $1. Congratulations to the four winning analysts. which was within 0.766 $33. In the event of a tie. followed by René Hochreiter for gold and Frederic Panizzutti for palladium.98 $1.8% respectively. Commiserations go to Carl Firman.5% of the actual average price for 2012.A.63 Average Price in 1st week January 2012 $1. The LBMA is grateful to PAMP SA for its generous donation of four 1 oz gold bars which will be awarded to the 2012 winning analysts in each of the four precious metal categories. The London Bullion Market Association is delighted to congratulate the winning analysts in the 2012 Precious Metals Forecast (see table below). The aim of the LBMA Forecast is to predict the average.2012 Forecast Winners Many thanks to all the Forecast contributors for another excellent year.603 $28. The most impressive forecast prediction was by Thorsten Proettel. the forecast range is taken into account.6% in 2012 (compared to the average price for the first week of 2012).15 $1. although the average price actually fell by 1. high and low price for the year ahead in each metal as accurately as possible. silver and platinum.3% price increase. who picked up the winning prize for silver by predicting a price of $31.

Peter Firman. Matthew BNP Paribas UBS Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc BN Vaidya & Associates BAML Vaidya. Anne-Laure Tully.300 $1.600 $1.600 Adams.900 $2. William Brebner.400 $1. Wolfgang Degussa Goldhandel GmbH 21 .669 Forecast Avg 2012 $1.500 $2. Martin Nagao. LBBW INTL Commodities CPM Group Standard Chartered Bank HSBC Steel.Au Name Fastmarkets Avg Price 2012 Average Low High 1st week Jan 2012 $1. Bhargava Widmer. Frederic Proettel. Tom Klapwijk.A.500 $1. Dan MKS (Switzerland) S. Thorsten Rhodes. Michael Wrzesniok-Rossbach.766 $1.200 $1. Carl Hochreiter. Rohit Smith.800 $1. Daniel Cooper. Philip Murenbeeld.100 $2. Edel Turner.700 $1. Eddie Norman. James Tremblay. Suki Dincer. Jeffrey Savant.200 $2. Michael Jollie. René Jansen.400 $2.000 $2.300 $2. David Deutsche Bank Barclays Capital LGT Capital Management Ltd QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd VM Group Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd JPMorgan Securities Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd Thomson Reuters GFMS DundeeWealth Economics Sumitomo Corporation Sharps Pixley Ltd Kendall. Ross Panizzutti.603 $1. Bayram Fertig.

00 $50.00 $55.00 $0.00 $60.96 $10.A.00 $45.15 Forecast Avg 2012 $28. Peter Firman. LBBW Proettel. Tom Klapwijk.00 $15. Ross Panizzutti. Daniel Deutsche Bank Cooper. David Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd Thomson Reuters GFMS Sumitomo Corporation Sharps Pixley Ltd Kendall.00 22 . Jeffrey INTL Commodities CPM Group Savant.00 $65. Eddie Norman.00 Brebner.00 $25.Ag Name Adams.00 $20. James Tremblay.00 $30. René Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd JPMorgan Securities Jansen. Matthew BN Vaidya & Associates BAML Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc Vaidya. Frederic MKS (Switzerland) S. Bhargava Widmer. Anne-Laure BNP Paribas UBS Tully. Philip Nagao. Michael Jollie. William Fastmarkets Avg Price 2012 Average Low High 1st week Jan 2012 $31.00 $33.00 $5. Thorsten Rhodes.00 $40. Dan HSBC Standard Chartered Bank Steel. Suki Barclays Capital Dincer. Michael Wrzesniok-Rossbach. Wolfgang Degussa Goldhandel GmbH $70. Carl VM Group LGT Capital Management Ltd QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd Hochreiter. Rohit Smith. Edel Turner.98 $35. Bayram Fertig.

Matthew INTL Commodities BNP Paribas UBS Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc BAML Widmer. Suki Dincer. Tom Klapwijk. David Deutsche Bank Barclays Capital LGT Capital Management Ltd QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd VM Group Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd JPMorgan Securities Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd Thomson Reuters GFMS Sumitomo Corporation Sharps Pixley Ltd Kendall. LBBW CPM Group Standard Chartered Bank HSBC Steel. Thorsten Savant. Bayram Fertig. René Jansen.000 $2.500 $1.A.200 $2.600 $1. Dan MKS (Switzerland) S.400 $1. Ross Panizzutti. Eddie Norman.624 $1. Michael Wrzesniok-Rossbach. William Brebner. Philip Nagao. Wolfgang Degussa Goldhandel GmbH 23 . Peter Firman.100 $2.700 $1.800 $1.552 1st week Jan 2012 Forecast Avg 2012 $1.Pt Name Fastmarkets Avg Price 2012 Average Low High $1. Anne-Laure Tully. Carl Hochreiter.000 $1. Rohit Smith.200 $1.412 $1. Daniel Cooper. Glyn Tremblay.900 $2. James Stevens. Edel Turner. Michael Jollie.300 Adams.100 $1. Frederic Proettel.300 $1.

René Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd JPMorgan Securities Jansen.000 $1.00 $600 $700 Forecast Avg 2012 $735.100 $1. Daniel Deutsche Bank Cooper. Michael Jollie. Wolfgang Degussa Goldhandel GmbH $200 $1. Ross Panizzutti.33 1st week Jan 2012 $655.A.300 $100 Brebner. Suki Barclays Capital Dincer.400 $300 $400 $500 $900 24 .200 $1. Glyn INTL Commodities BNP Paribas UBS Tremblay.52 $800 $1. William Fastmarkets Avg Price 2012 Average Low High $644. Anne-Laure Tully. Rohit CPM Group Smith. Peter Firman. Matthew BAML Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc Widmer.Pd Name Adams. Tom Klapwijk. Edel Turner. LBBW Proettel. Philip Nagao. Bayram Fertig. Michael Wrzesniok-Rossbach. Frederic MKS (Switzerland) S. Dan HSBC Standard Chartered Bank Steel. Eddie Norman. James Stevens. Thorsten Savant. Carl VM Group LGT Capital Management Ltd QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd Hochreiter. David Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd Thomson Reuters GFMS Sumitomo Corporation Sharps Pixley Ltd Kendall.

Royal Exchange. London Bullion Market Association.800 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Forecast 2013 is published by the LBMA.000 $1. Telephone: 020 7796 3067 Fax: 020 7283 0030 Email: alchemist@lbma.lbma.Forecast 2001-2013 Review $200 $0 As the chart below illustrates.200 $1.753.000 $400 $600 $800 25 . 1-2 Royal Exchange Buildings.600 $1.400 $1.3% in 2013 (since the first week of January 2013) to $1. Indeed analysts have correctly predicted the direction of the gold price every year (with the exception of 2004) since the Forecast Survey began in 2001. The gold price has risen four fold in the last seven years and analysts are predicting a further increase of 5. errors or omissions or for any action taken in reliance This is an excellent record which compares impressively against other forecast surveys. For further information please contact Aelred London EC3V 3LF. $1. And if forecasters’ predictions prove as accurate this year as in previous years then we are all set for a further increase in the gold price during www. analysts participating in the LBMA Forecast have an excellent record in predicting the direction of the gold price movement. the LBMA can accept no responsibility for any mistakes. Key Forecast average Average price First week of January $ Given the freedom of expression offered to contributors and whilst great care has been taken to ensure that the information contained in the Forecast is accurate.