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Weekly

Summary Report
2013 Trading Week 16: 08-14 April 2013

Weekly Summary Report

Week 16: 08-14 Apr 2013

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Tight supply conditions still manifested throughout the week, particularly during the middle of the week, given the high de mand requirement
observed in Luzon.
The systems hourly aggregate energy offers peaked at a level of 9,723 MW (1400H, 08 April 2013), whereas the systems ex -ante demand
reached a high of 9,327 MW (1400H, 10 April 2013), which is the highest to date. The same hour also reflected the highest ac tual system demand
recorded at 9,435 MW, by far the highest for the year, largely because Luzon had a demand requirement of 8,014 MW during this period.
Although high prices often cleared the market during the peak demand periods of the week, the price levels were lower as op posed to the previous
week, resulting in a lower system-wide hourly load-weighted average price (LWAP) of PhP 5,970/MWh. It ranged from a low of PhP 1,622/MWh
(0700H, 14 April 2013) to a high of PhP 30,926/MWh (1600H, 08 April 2013).
On a regional perspective, the hourly LWAP reached highs of PhP 24,877/MWh (1100H, 10 April 2013) and PhP 64,934/MWh (1600H, 08 April
2013) in Luzon and the Visayas, respectively. The significantly high regional Visayas LWAP of PhP 64,934/MWh resulted from t he clearing of a
coal-fired plant in Cebu as a result of the tight supply conditions on 08 April 2013. Although the same price set was initial ly reflected in Luzon
during this hour, a congestion-related pricing error notice was issued in Luzon because of network congestion at the Bauang -BPPC 230 kV line,
hence, its prices were replaced by prices derived through the Price Substitution Methodology (PSM) for congestion.
The transfer capacity of the 350 kV HVDC link from the Visayas to Luzon was still limited up to 200 MW because of the maint enance activities at its
converter station, resulting in occasional price separations between the Luzon and Visayas grids, most of which occurred duri ng off-peak demand
periods.
The number of must-run units (MRUs) was still significant during the week most of which were designated for the commercial operation
requirements of Petron and Therma Mobile (TMO). However, some generating plants in Luzon were utilized as MRUs because of in adequate
reserve levels from 10-12 April 2013 as a result of the high demand requirement in the grid. As with the previous week, no MR Us were utilized in
the Visayas this week.
Price separations were observed within the Luzon grid in some trading intervals during the week because of congestions at t he Bauang-BPPC
230 kV line, Amadeo-Calaca 230 kV line, Calauan-Makban 230 kV line, or at the Dasmarias 500/230 kV Substation. In the Visayas, congestions
only occurred at the Negros-Panay 138 kV submarine cables.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND


MIN

MAX

RTD DEMAND, MW
AVE

MIN

MAX

OFFER
AVAILABLE SUPPLY
SYSTEM RTD

12000

AVE

Apr-08

9,042

9,723

9,337

6,330

9,183

7,955

Apr-09

9,102

9,429

9,302

6,431

8,617

7,675

Apr-10

8,898

9,469

9,180

6,388

9,327

8,025

Apr-11

8,450

9,248

8,798

6,534

9,193

8,020

Apr-12

8,400

9,215

8,823

6,366

9,212

7,962

Apr-13

8,299

9,038

8,772

6,469

8,327

7,494

Apr-14

8,882

9,250

9,080

5,901

8,480

7,266

8,299

9,723

9,042

5,901

9,327

7,771

10000

MW

OFFER, MW

DATE

8000

6000

4000

FORECASTED VS. ACTUAL DEMAND


FORECAST ERRORS, %

SYSTEM RTD
SYSTEM ACTUAL

12000

MINIMUM

MAXIMUM

MAPE

Apr-08

0.09

2.28

0.66

Apr-09

0.01

2.13

0.83

Apr-10

0.01

1.94

0.79

Apr-11

0.03

1.93

0.72

Apr-12

0.06

2.16

0.67

Apr-13

0.04

2.37

0.87

Apr-14

0.03

2.00

0.83

0.01

2.37

0.77

10000

MW

DATE

8000

6000

4000

EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX


GENERATION MIX, %
DATE

COAL

DIESEL/OIL
2.8%

GEO

HYDRO

NAT GAS

DIESEL /
OIL

WIND AND
BIO

Apr-08

49.1

14.3

4.1

29.3

3.3

Apr-09

51.4

14.5

3.2

29.7

1.1

0.1

Apr-10

48.9

14.2

3.6

28.9

4.3

0.1

Apr-11

48.4

14.2

3.2

29.0

5.1

0.2

Apr-12

48.8

14.3

3.5

29.2

4.0

0.2

Apr-13

51.0

14.4

3.3

30.8

0.5

0.1

Apr-14

50.9

15.6

3.6

29.3

0.5

49.7

14.5

3.5

29.5

2.8

0.1

NAT GAS
29.5%

COAL
49.7%

HYDRO
3.5%
GEO
14.5%

Weekly Summary Report

Week 16: 08-14 Apr 2013

CAPACITY (OFFER) MIX


AVERAGE CAPACITY MIX, %
COAL

GEO

HYDRO

NAT GAS

WIND AND
BIO

Apr-08

45.4

12.2

3.9

29.1

9.3

Apr-09

46.2

12.3

3.5

29.2

8.8

0.1

Apr-10

46.9

12.6

3.7

29.6

7.2

0.1

Apr-11

47.8

13.0

3.5

28.0

7.6

0.1

Apr-12

47.8

13.0

3.9

28.2

7.0

0.1

Apr-13

47.6

13.0

3.5

28.1

7.8

0.1

Apr-14

46.8

12.7

3.3

29.9

7.2

46.9

12.7

3.6

28.9

7.9

0.1

HVDC FLOW

OTHERS
NAT GAS
GEO

DIESEL/OIL
HYDRO
COAL

10000

8000
MW

DATE

12000

DIESEL /
OIL

6000

4000

2000

EX-ANTE HVDC FLOW

HVDC DIRECTION, % OF TIME

1200

RTD

DATE
NO FLOW

VL

LV

NO FLOW

VL

LUZON-TO-VISAYAS
VISAYAS-TO-LUZON

ACTUAL

1000

LV

800

Apr-08

100.0

100.0

Apr-09

100.0

100.0

Apr-10

100.0

100.0

Apr-11

100.0

4.2

83.3

12.5

Apr-12

95.8

4.2

4.2

83.3

12.5

50.0

-200

Apr-13

54.2

45.8

4.2

45.8

Apr-14

100.0

100.0

92.9

7.1

1.8

87.5

10.7

SYSTEM MARKET PRICES

MW

600

200

-400

SYSTEM MARKET PRICES (LWAP)

DAILY SUMMARY OF SYSTEM PRICES (LWAP), PhP/MWh

70000

RTD

DATE

400

RTD LWAP
RTX LWAP

RTX
60000

MIN

MAX

AVE

MIN

MAX

AVE
50000

2,126

30,926

9,401

2,108

24,982

9,266

Apr-09

2,127

13,709

4,412

2,101

16,702

5,037

Apr-10

1,887

23,658

8,175

1,786

20,475

7,629

Apr-11

2,171

11,529

6,254

2,113

10,961

6,131

Apr-12

2,004

23,691

6,475

1,998

22,678

5,854

Apr-13

2,055

8,640

2,906

1,994

8,625

2,874

10000

Apr-14

1,622

14,308

3,699

1,707

11,077

3,499

1,622

30,926

5,970

1,707

24,982

5,818

EX-ANTE LWAP DISTRIBUTION

40000
30000
20000

EX-ANTE MARKET PRICES PER GRID (LWAP )


RTD

100

LWAP, PhP / MWh

Apr-08

70000

RTX

LUZON
VISAYAS

60000
80

LWAP, PhP / MWh

PERCENT OF TIME

50000

60

40

40000

30000

20000

20

10000

0
0 and Below

0 - 2000

2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000

8000 10000

Above
10000

Weekly Summary Report

Week 16: 08-14 Apr 2013

SUMMARY OF PRICES PER GRID, LUZON

LUZON MARKET PRICES (LWAP)

RTD, PhP/MWh

DATE
MIN

MAX

RTX, PhP/MWh
AVE

MIN

MAX

RTD LWAP
RTX LWAP

70000

AVE

60000

Apr-08

2,123

24,869

9,108

2,191

26,183

9,263

Apr-09

2,217

13,709

4,403

2,218

16,730

5,046

Apr-10

1,999

24,877

8,273

1,889

21,000

7,762

Apr-11

2,170

11,026

6,131

2,110

11,026

6,147

Apr-12

2,046

24,819

6,492

2,046

23,606

5,914

Apr-13

2,050

8,611

2,871

1,990

8,611

2,833

10000

Apr-14

1,701

14,308

3,704

1,803

11,000

3,503

1,701

24,877

5,923

1,803

26,183

5,850

SUMMARY OF PRICES PER GRID, VISAYAS


RTD, PhP/MWh

DATE

LWAP, PhP / MWh

50000
40000
30000

20000

VISAYAS MARKET PRICES (LWAP)


RTD LWAP

RTX, PhP/MWh

RTX LWAP

70000

MIN

MAX

AVE

MIN

MAX

AVE
60000

Apr-08

2,142

64,934

11,041

1,608

23,027

9,283

Apr-09

1,325

13,709

4,467

1,323

16,553

4,981

Apr-10

1,156

23,537

7,630

1,160

17,517

6,883

Apr-11

2,179

16,255

6,945

2,128

10,589

6,040

Apr-12

1,762

21,487

6,381

1,723

17,652

5,526

Apr-13

2,082

8,793

3,093

2,016

8,695

3,087

10000

Apr-14

1,177

14,308

3,674

1,178

11,475

3,475

1,156

64,934

6,229

1,160

23,027

5,644

INTERVALS WITH MUST-RUN UNIT (MRU) EVENTS


DATE

LUZON

LWAP, PhP / MWh

50000

40000
30000
20000

HOURLY MRU EVENTS


LUZON

VISAYAS
24

Apr-09

24

Apr-10

24

Apr-11

24

Apr-12

24

Apr-13

24

24

168

Apr-14

MRU EVENTS, LUZON


DATE

TOTAL

HOURLY FREQUENCY OF MRU


EVENTS

Apr-08

VISAYAS

MRU EVENTS, VISAYAS

THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS

DATE

TOTAL

THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS

Apr-08

27

24

Apr-08

Apr-09

25

25

Apr-09

Apr-10

41

16

24

Apr-10

Apr-11

49

24

24

Apr-11

Apr-12

51

21

30

Apr-12

Apr-13

30

30

Apr-13

Apr-14

24

24

Apr-14

247

61

181

Note:

MRU events refer to occurrences in which generating units are designated

THERMAL

Thermal Limits of Transmission Line and/or Power Equipment

as must-run units for certain trading intervals

RESERVE

Inadequate Reserve Level

VOLTAGE

System Voltage Requirement

COMM/REG

Commercial Operation or Regulatory Requirements

OTHERS

Other Reasons for MRU Dispatch such as System Tests, etc.

Source: NGCP Luzon System Operations and Visayas System Operations

Weekly Summary Report

Week 16: 08-14 Apr 2013

LUZON PRICING CONDITIONS (FREQUENCY)


DATE

VISAYAS PRICING CONDITIONS (FREQUENCY)

RTD

AP
VALID

RTX
PEN

VALID

DATE

RTD

AP

MRR

VALID

RTX
PEN

VALID

MRR

Apr-08

10

14

20

Apr-08

21

22

Apr-09

12

12

24

Apr-09

15

24

Apr-10

10

14

22

Apr-10

22

23

Apr-11

11

13

23

Apr-11

24

24

Apr-12

10

14

24

Apr-12

23

24

Apr-13

13

11

24

Apr-13

23

24

Apr-14

10

14

22

Apr-14

11

13

24

76

92

159

139

29

165

AP

Trading hours affected by Market Intervention

VALID

Trading hours with no issuance of PEN or Market Intervention

PEN/MRR

Trading hours issued with pricing errors

REASON FOR PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

REASON FOR PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

LUZON, EX-ANTE PEN

VISAYAS, EX-ANTE PEN

DATE

UGEN

VOLL

CONT

BC

PSM

ERR

DATE

UGEN

VOLL

CONT

BC

PSM

ERR

Apr-08

14

Apr-08

Apr-09

10

Apr-09

Apr-10

14

Apr-10

Apr-11

13

Apr-11

Apr-12

14

Apr-12

Apr-13

10

Apr-13

Apr-14

14

Apr-14

13

78

31

26

LUZON, EX-POST PEN


DATE

UGEN

VISAYAS, EX-POST PEN


VOLL

CONT

BC

PSM

ERR

DATE

UGEN

VOLL

CONT

BC

PSM

ERR

Apr-08

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-14

UGEN

Under-generation

BC

Base Case CVC

VOLL

Nodal Value of Lost Load

PSM

Subject to the Price Substitution Methodology

CONT

Contingency CVC

ERR

Erroneous Input or Snapshot Information