Situation normal, everything must change

Simon Wardley

Canonical and the Cloud

DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

Pain

Pain

No. Slides

35 slides

Pain

Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides

227 slides

Pain

Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides

http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing

What is “Cloud computing” ?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/

It’s like computers on the internet, innit.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

It’s a disruptive shift of the computing stack to online services.

It’s like computers on the internet, innit.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

Image from Oliver Twist,

It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention infrastructure?

Cloud Computing

Not a thing ...

Cloud Computing

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.

Why I.T. is changing.

Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.

Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.

Why I.T. is changing.

Why I.T. is changing

http://www.strassmann.com/

Paul Strassmann

Why I.T. is changing

Not all IT is the same.

Why I.T. is changing

Not all IT has value.

Why I.T. is changing

Yesterday’s hot stuff

Why I.T. is changing

Yesterday’s hot stuff

Today’s boredom

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation

Bespoke

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Competitive Advantage

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Cost of doing business

Why I.T. is changing

1832
Innovation

Why I.T. is changing

1832
Innovation Bespoke

Why I.T. is changing

1837 1832
Innovation Bespoke Products

Image from Oliver Twist

Image from Chicago Historical Society

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

Why I.T. is changing

1837 1832
Innovation Bespoke Products

1890

Utility Grids (Services)

Why I.T. is changing

Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)

Why I.T. is changing

1837 1832
Innovation Bespoke Products

1930

National Grid (Services)

Why I.T. is changing

As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value

Nicholas Carr

Why I.T. is changing

Not all IT is the same.

Why I.T. is changing

As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value

Nicholas Carr

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel

Common

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel

Common

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel

Common

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Ubiquity

TV’s, Phone,VCRs

Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity

Common Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

COMMODITY

Ubiquity

Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity

Common

Novel

Innovation of CRM.
Low Certainty High

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity

Common

Mid '80s DB marketing.
Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Ubiquity

CRM products 90’s

Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

“Cloud Providers” like Salesforce

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Expense Procedure Company Web site

Payroll Accounts Payable

Ubiquity

Wiki Social Network Analysis
Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Expense Procedure Company Web site

Payroll Accounts Payable

Ubiquity

Wiki Social Network Analysis
Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Ubiquity

Features

Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread

Ubiquity

Feature Complete

Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread

Ubiquity

Feature Complete

Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Common

“as a Service”

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

Utility Computing
John McCarthy

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

highly disruptive

Why I.T. is changing

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

Creative Destruction
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Why I.T. is changing

Power

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Hardware

Internet

Why I.T. is changing

Power

Google

Bespoke

Products

Hardware

Internet

Why I.T. is changing

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Database

Framework

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Database

Framework

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Database

Framework

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Database

Framework

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Database

Framework

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Database

Framework

Messaging

10,000 x

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Why I.T. is changing

The rate of evolution of a system is directly related to the organisation of its subsystems

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Database

Platform

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

ase

Platform

Messaging

Operating System Hypervisor Memory I/O

Infrastructure

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

ase

Platform

Messaging

Platform

Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O

Infrastructure

Why I.T. is changing

Application

Service

Application Platform

ase

Platform

Messaging

Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O

Infrastructure

Why I.T. is changing

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Disruptive Shift

Why I.T. is changing

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

(Componentisation)

Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread

Ubiquity

Feature Complete

Novel Low Certainty

High

Why I.T. is changing

“as a Service” industry

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Why I.T. is changing

Infrastructure as a Service

Amazon EC2

Why I.T. is changing

Platform as a Service

Google App Engine

Infrastructure as a Service

Amazon EC2

Why I.T. is changing

Software as a Service Platform as a Service

SalesForce Google App Engine

Infrastructure as a Service

Amazon EC2

Why I.T. is changing

As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value

Nicholas Carr

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Cost of doing business

Why I.T. is changing

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Disruptive Shift

Why I.T. is changing

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

(Componentisation)

Why I.T. is changing

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.

Why I.T. is changing

Creative Destruction
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

Utility Computing
John McCarthy

Recap

Recap

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Recap

Common

Expense Procedure Company Web site

Payroll Accounts Payable

Ubiquity

Wiki Social Netwok Analysis
Novel Low Certainty

High

Recap

Common

COMMODITY

Ubiquity

Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Recap

http://www.strassmann.com/

Paul Strassmann

Recap

Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Recap

Application

Service

Application Platform

ase

Platform

Messaging

Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O

Infrastructure

Recap

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Disruptive

Recap

“as a Service” industry

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Recap

Software as a Service Platform as a Service

SalesForce Google App Engine

Infrastructure as a Service

Amazon EC2

Recap

Utility Computing
John McCarthy

Recap

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.

It’s like computers on the internet, innit.

Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume)

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility)

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation)

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Ubiquity

Common

You
Novel Low Certainty

High

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common

Market

Ubiquity

You
Novel Low Certainty

High

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common

Market

Ubiquity

Competitive Gap You
Novel Low Certainty

High

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an ecosystem.

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Red Queen Hypothesis
Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege

http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common

• • • • •

Economies of scale. (volume) Pay per use. (utility) Speed to market. (componentisation) Focus on core. (outsourcing)

Market Competitive Gap You

Novel Low

Greener (efficient supply & demand)

High

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Disruptive Shift

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

“as a Service” industry

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.

General
• Suitability.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.

General
• Suitability. • Price competition.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.

General
• Suitability. • Price competition. • Lock-in.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.

General
• Suitability. • Price competition. • Lock-in. • Second sourcing.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Adoption Barriers

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common

Market

Gap You
Novel Low High

Vs

Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.

Canonical and the Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

• Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.

Canonical and the Cloud

• Fastest growing Linux-based operating system. • Over 10,000,000 users.

Canonical and the Cloud

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.

General
• Suitability. • Price competition. • Lock-in. • Second sourcing.

Canonical and the Cloud

Electricity

Canonical and the Cloud

Electricity

BOOM!

Canonical and the Cloud

Standard Output

BOOM!

Canonical and the Cloud

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Canonical and the Cloud

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Canonical and the Cloud

You

Data Application

Canonical and the Cloud

Data Application

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Provider (i.e. CogHead)

Canonical and the Cloud

Data Application

Platform Operating System

BOOM!
Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data Application

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Platform Operating System

BOOM!
Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data Application

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Multiple Providers

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data Application

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Easy Switching

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data Application

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Standard Output

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Paul Baran

Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA DECNET

Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA Decnet

TCP/IP

Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA Decnet

TCP/IP Open

Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA Decnet

TCP/IP Open

Bind SendMail Apache Open Source

Canonical and the Cloud

Innovation

IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA Decnet

TCP/IP

(Componentisation)

Canonical and the Cloud

Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)

Canonical and the Cloud

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Canonical and the Cloud

Application Platform

Amazon EC2

Canonical and the Cloud

Beta program for Ubuntu Server Edition on Amazon EC2. http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2

Canonical and the Cloud

9.04 Technology Preview Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

Eucalyptus

Canonical and the Cloud

Private in-house cloud matching Amazon EC2 API

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Private Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Amazon EC2

Private Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Easy Switching

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Amazon EC2

Private Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

Common

• • • • •

Economies of scale. (volume) Pay per use. (utility) Speed to market. (componentisation) Focus on core. (outsourcing)

Market Competitive Gap You

Novel Low

Greener (efficient supply & demand)

High

Canonical and the Cloud

Standard Ouptut

Canonical and the Cloud

Ecosystem

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Price
Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Quality of Service
Hypervisor Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Common Ubiquity

Feature Differentiation

Novel Low Certainty

High

Canonical and the Cloud

Common

Price vs QoS

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Canonical and the Cloud

Competitive Market

Recap

Recap

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Recap

http://www.strassmann.com/

Paul Strassmann

Recap

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Disruptive

Recap

“as a Service” industry

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Recap

Utility Computing
John McCarthy

Recap

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.

Recap

• Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)

Recap

Common

• • • • •

Economies of scale. (volume) Pay per use. (utility) Speed to market. (componentisation) Focus on core. (outsourcing)

Market Competitive Gap You

Novel Low

Greener (efficient supply & demand)

High

Recap

Transition
• Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.

General
• Suitability. • Price competition. • Lock-in. • Second sourcing.

Recap

Standard Output

Recap

IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA Decnet

TCP/IP Open

Bind SendMail Apache Open Source

Recap

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Standard Output

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Amazon EC2

Private Cloud

Recap

9.04 Technology Preview Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud (Eucalyptus)

Recap

Private in-house cloud matching Amazon EC2 API

Recap

Competitive Market

Recap

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Recap

Red Queen Hypothesis
Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

Situation normal, everything must change

Thank you

whoops ...

the outtakes ...

i.e. more slides ...

http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Good, Bad & Ugly

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

The Good

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

(Componentisation)

http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/

The Bad

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Disruptive Shift

The Bad

Common

Widespread

Ubiquity

Feature Complete

Novel Low Certainty

High

The Bad

As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value

Nicholas Carr

The Bad

Creative Destruction
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

The Ugly

Utility Computing
John McCarthy

The Ugly

Software Framework

Software as a Service (SaaS) Framework as a Service (FaaS)

Hardware

Hardware as a Service (HaaS)

2007

The Ugly

“this is going to lead to a whole lot of aaS.”
Oscon 2007

Robert Lefkowitz

The Ugly

2007 - 2008

The Ugly

Software Application Framework Platform

Hardware Infrastructure

OaaS XaaS DBaaS DaaS SaaSu DaaS DaaS SaaSy PaaS SaaSp SaaS HaaS FaaS WaaS IaaS FaaS

2008

The Ugly

Application Platform

Application as a Service (SaaS) Platform as a Service (PaaS)

Infrastructure

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)

2009

Terminology.

It’s like computers on the internet, innit.

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Why transparency matters ...

Transparency

Infrastructure as a Service

Joe

Transparency

Joe
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Joe

Transparency

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Joe

Transparency

Tom

Storage

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage

Joe
Bare Metal

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage

PaaS

Dick

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage

Development Platform

Dick

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage

Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Joe

Transparency

Harry

Mapping API Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API

Tom

Storage

Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

SaaS Development Platform

Alice

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Alice

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Harry

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API

Transport Routing Development Platform

Tom

Storage

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Dick

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Bob
Mapping API Storage Transport Routing Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Alice

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Joe

Transparency

Mapping API Storage

Transport Routing Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Joe

Transparency

Map

ping

Sto

rag e

Hype

API

rviso

r Tec

spor hnolran To gy

pm o elg evn outi RD t

nt e

lat P

rm fo

Transparency

Bob

Alice

Transparency

Bob

Alice

Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe

Transparency

House

House

House

Joe

Transparency

Tom
House

Security House House

Transparency

Dick
Security House House House

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Part I Why I.T. is complex

Complexity

Ubiquity

Common

Innovation of CRM.
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Ubiquity

Uncertain

Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Ubiquity

Uncertain Deviation

Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Ubiquity

Uncertain Deviation Differential
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Ubiquity

Uncertain Deviation Differential
Novel

Worth
Low Certainty High

Complexity

Ubiquity

Common

Dynamic
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Ubiquity

Common

Agile XP / Scrum
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Utility-like provision of CRM

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

“Cloud Providers” like Salesforce

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Defined

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Defined No Deviation

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Defined No Deviation

Ubiquity

CODB

Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Defined No Deviation

Ubiquity

CODB Cost

Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Defined
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Prince 2, Six Sigma
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Prince 2, Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Agile XP, Scrum
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

CRM
Ubiquity

CRM
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

Six Sigma
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Common

COMMODITY

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity

Ubiquity

Common Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Complexity

Common

Different Methodologies
Novel Low Certainty

Ubiquity

High

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Part II The Paradox

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Prince 2, Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Agile XP, Scrum
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Expense Procedure Company Web site

Payroll Accounts Payable

Ubiquity

Wiki Social Network Analysis
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Market

Ubiquity

Competitive Gap You
Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity ... Part II

The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an ecosystem.

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

Complexity ... Part II

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/

Complexity ... Part II

Innovation Paradox
Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’ [order]. & Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these virtues [disorder].
Salaman & Storey

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Order
Ubiquity

Disorder
Novel Low Certainty

High

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Six Sigma
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Complexity ... Part II

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

Complexity ... Part II

Ubiquity

Common

Novel

20% Rule
Low Certainty High

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Ubiquity

Rigorous defined procedures

Novel

20% Rule
Low Certainty High

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Things to watch ...

Things to watch

Application Platform

Infrastructure

Things to watch

Competitive Market

Things to watch

Data Application

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Standard Output

Platform Operating System Hypervisor Bare Metal

Things to watch

Platform

Things to watch

Platform

Technology Vendor

Things to watch

Provider Technology Vendor

Things to watch

Provider Consumer Technology Vendor

Things to watch

Provider Consumer ISV Technology Vendor

Things to watch

Provider Consumer ISV Technology Vendor

Things to watch

Provider Consumer Locked-in ISV Technology Vendor

Things to watch

Provider Consumer ISV Open Standard

Things to watch

Provider Consumer ISV EXTEND

Things to watch

Common Ubiquity

Feature Differentiation

Novel Low Certainty

High

Things to watch

Common

Price vs QoS

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Things to watch

Platform

Open Source Reference Model

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Part III More Or Less ...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

I’m in ur Internets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

I’m in ur Internets

... web fohwr zero!!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

More innovation

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

Common

High

More innovation

Common

Payroll

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Common

Payroll

Company Web site
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Common

Payroll

Company Web site
Ubiquity

Novel

Neuristic Kitten Thing
Low Certainty High

More innovation

Common

Dynamic
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Ubiquity

Common

INNOVATION
Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Common

Market

Ubiquity

Competitive Gap You
Novel Low Certainty

High

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

More innovation

The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an ecosystem.

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

More innovation

“more efficient”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

More innovation

“more process”

More innovation

Common

Defined Processes

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Common

COMMODITY

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

More innovation

Common

COMMODITY

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Common

Defined
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

More innovation

Ubiquity

Common Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

More innovation

Creative Destruction
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

More innovation

“innovate more”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/

More innovation

“less process”

More innovation

“more process”

http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/

Image from Oliver Twist,

More innovation

“ideas process”

More innovation

Common

Ubiquity

Rigorous defined procedures

Novel

Skunk works
Low Certainty High

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Adopt a fast life ...

Fast life

Commoditisation

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Fast life

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

Product Competition

Fast life

Adoption

Laggards

Early

Products

Time

Fast life

Adoption

“Original”

“New and Improved”

Products

Time

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/

Fast life

Diffusion of Product Innovation
Everett Rogers ( 1931 - 2004 )

Fast life

Common

Product
Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Fast life

Common

Product
Ubiquity

Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Fast life

Adoption

“Original”

“New and Improved”

Products

Time

Fast life

Common

Widespread Product

Ubiquity

Feature Complete INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Novel

Fast life

Common

Services

Product
Ubiquity

Novel

INNOVATION
Low Certainty High

Fast life

Innovation

Bespoke

Products

Services

highly disruptive

Fast life

Common

Standard Components

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Fast life

Common

Standard Components Componentisation

Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty

High

Fast life

Common

Standard Components Componentisation

Ubiquity

Novel

Innovation
Low Certainty High

Fast life

Common

Standard Components Componentisation

Ubiquity

Commoditisation
Novel

Innovation
Low Certainty High

Fast life

Common

Standard Components Componentisation

Ubiquity

Commoditisation
Novel

Innovation
Low Certainty High

Fast life

Common

Standard Components Componentisation

Ubiquity

Commoditisation
Novel

Innovation
Low Certainty High

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

Happy clouds ...

Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy

Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy
Rule 1 Run the service on my own machines.

Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy
Rule 1 Rule 2 Run the service on my own machines. Easily switch between my machines and a cloud provider.

Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy
Rule 1 Rule 2 Rule 3 Run the service on my own machines. Easily switch between my machines and a cloud provider. Easily switch between cloud providers.

Happy Clouds

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Private Cloud

Happy Clouds

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Easy Switching

Hypervisor Bare Metal

Amazon EC2

Private Cloud

Happy Clouds

Competitive Market

A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com

End ...

Beyond End ...

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