Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199

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Computers & Geosciences
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Estimation of static formation temperatures in geothermal wells by using an artificial neural network approach
´ ndez b, O.M. Espinoza-Ojeda a A. Bassam a, E. Santoyo a,n, J. Andaverde b, J.A. Herna
a b

´n en Energı ´a, Universidad Nacional Auto ´noma de Me ´xico, Privada Xochicalco s/n, Centro, 62580 Temixco, Morelos, Me ´xico Centro de Investigacio ´n en Ingenierı ´a y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Auto ´noma del Estado de Morelos, Av. Universidad 1001, Col. Chamilpa, 62209 Cuernavaca, Morelos, Me ´xico Centro de Investigacio

a r t i c l e in fo
Article history: Received 13 August 2009 Received in revised form 6 January 2010 Accepted 7 January 2010 Keywords: Horner method Geothermal energy Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm Borehole drilling Bottom-hole temperature Artificial intelligence Shut-in time

abstract
An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to develop a new predictive model for the calculation of static formation temperature (SFT) in geothermal wells. A three-layer ANN architecture was successfully trained using a geothermal borehole database, which contains ‘‘statistically normalised’’ SFT estimates. These estimates were inferred from seven analytical methods commonly used in geothermal industry. Bottom-hole temperature (BHT) measurements and shut-in times were used as main input variables for the ANN training. Transient temperature gradients were used as secondary variables. The Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm, the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid transfer function and the linear transfer function were used for the ANN optimisation. The best training data set was obtained with an ANN architecture composed by five neurons in the hidden layer, which made possible to predict the SFT with a satisfactory efficiency (R2 4 0.95). A suitable accuracy of the ANN model was achieved with a percentage error less than 7 5%. The SFTs predicted by the ANN model were statistically analyzed and compared with ‘‘true’’ SFTs measured in synthetic experiments and actual BHT logs collected in geothermal boreholes during long shut-in times. These data sets were processed both to validate the new ANN model and to avoid bias. The SFT estimates inferred from the ANN validation process were in good agreement (R2 4 0.95) with the ‘‘true’’ SFT data reported for synthetic and field experiments. The results suggest that the new ANN model could be used as a practical tool for the reliable prediction of SFT in geothermal wells using BHT and shut-in time as input data only. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The exploitation of geothermal resources for producing electricity requires the drilling of deep boreholes in the most suitable thermal regions of geothermal fields (Saito et al., 1998; Davis and Michaelides, 2009). The borehole drilling is a complex process in which a constant thermal anomaly (added to a circulating drilling mud) affects the original rock-formation temperature surrounding the borehole (Fomin et al., 2003, 2005). Once the borehole drilling is completed, the resulting thermal recovery is evaluated by analyzing build-up bottom-hole temperature (BHT) and shut-in time measurements (Santoyo et al., 2000). BHT data are measured at different shut-in times during the borehole drilling operations (Espinosa-Paredes and Espinosa-Martinez, 2009). BHTs are usually costly due to the use of sophisticated logging equipment, but mostly, because the borehole drilling progress needs to be stopped (Wisian et al., 1998; Fomin et al., 2005).

n

Corresponding author. E-mail address: esg@cie.unam.mx (E. Santoyo).

The determination of the static formation temperatures (SFTs) from BHT measurements constitutes a crucial task for the evaluation of geothermal systems (Espinosa et al., 2001; Kutasov and Eppelbaum, 2003). The estimation of SFT from BHT data at early drilling times offers the chance to know the virgin formation temperature several months before it can be measured with accuracy. This approach is valuable in terms of planning, exploration, developing, and exploitation programmes. The knowledge of the SFT is required for the: (1) determination of geothermal gradients for exploration mapping; (2) determination of heat flows of promising geothermal zones; (3) interpretation of borehole logging; (4) optimal design of borehole drilling and completion programs; (5) location of permeable or lost circulation zones; (6) evaluation of in-situ thermophysical formation properties; and (7) for the estimation of the heat reserves in geothermal systems. The estimation of SFT in geothermal boreholes is usually performed by using simplified analytical methods based on complex heat transfer models concentrated at the bottom-hole conditions, where BHTs are actually measured. The BHT measurements tend to reflect the thermal anomalies caused by the drilling mud circulation to the rock-formation.

0098-3004/$ - see front matter & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2010.01.006

The determination of SFT under such conditions requires the use of complex analytical methods or wellbore simulators.. This statistical approach coupled to the ANN enables the resulting errors to be effectively detected and rejected before selecting reliable SFT estimates. Hsieh et al. 2006. mBHT ¼ 6. large discrepancies among the SFT results provided by different methods have been reported (Andaverde et al.. 1999)]. The geothermal industry is interested in estimating SFT in systems where heat convection dominates. and transient temperature gradients. 1988b). Mexico [MXCO2. Bayram. (ii) the cylindrical heat source with a conductive-convective heat flow method (CSM) proposed by Hasan and Kabir (1994). 1988a)]. CH-A4 ¼ 169 1C. 2006a.. Geothermal borehole databases for learning and validation tests A geothermal borehole database containing BHT and shut-in time (Dt) measurements logged from drilling operations of 10 boreholes was created (Table 1). HM. Bassam et al.e. b). (vii) the spherical and radial heat flow method (SRM) proposed by Ascencio et al. These tools need thermophysical and transport properties of drilling.. Dt r 72.. 2002. 2009). 2005). In this regard. Serpen et al. the application of ANN to geothermal and petroleum engineering problems has also been the subject of study (e. mBHT ¼ 10.. and KJ-21 borehole. Italy [ITAL. Dt r 190. USA [SGIL. cementing. Japan [JAPN. (1994). 2009a. a new application of artificial neural networks (ANN) is here proposed for developing a new reliable method for the calculation of SFTs in geothermal wells.. normalised SFT estimates (inferred from seven analytical methods). Therefore. USA [USAM. and transient temperature gradients. Farshad et al. using BHT and shut-in time measurements as input data. Although considerable progress has been achieved in this area over recent years.2. The normalisation of SFT estimates was carried out using statistical tests for discordant outlier detection and rejection (Verma. ANN have been suggested as powerful computational tools in many sciences for modelling and solving complex real-world problems. Dt r 95. 1975). Spichak and Goidina. (iii) the line-source or the well-known Hornerplot method (HM: Dowdle and Cobb.... CLAH ¼ 120. Can. Heat convection is attributed to the presence of permeable zones in reservoirs and drilling mud losses into the formation. (2) Los Humeros... mBHT ¼ 14.. / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 The most common analytical methods include: (i) the radial source with a conductive heat flow or Brennand method (BM: Brennand.5 h (Cao et al. and (10) Norton Sound field. Dı In this work. Dt r 200 h (Kutasov.0 1C. 1990). (6) Kyushu. Dt r 75. Mean SFT estimates (normalised) and standard deviations were computed using an improved outlier detection/ rejection statistical method (Verma et al. 2. a three-layer ANN approach was successfully trained for obtaining a new predictive model to estimate SFT in geothermal wells. (5) Leyte. mBHT ¼ 6. The simplified solutions of these analytical methods are summarised in Table 2. and (vii) the conductive-convective cylindrical source method (CSM).. Dt r 42 h (Andaverde et al.. ´ lez-Partida El Salvador [CH-A1.58 h (Andaverde et al. Morton.. The geothermal database also contains build-up thermal recovery logs recorded during drilling operations carried out in some geothermal boreholes of the world. (9) Larderello. 2. (vi) the conductive spherical-radial method (SRM). 1995. 1966)]. 2009. and (ii) two data sets logged in some geothermal boreholes which were collected during long logging works (CH-A4 borehole. Spichak. 2005). Four thermal recovery data sets were additionally compiled for the validation or accuracy tests: (i) two synthetic data sets collected from experimental works reported in the literature (SHBE. 1995)]. Leite and Filho.. which are rarely available in the literature. 1986)]. 2006). El Salvador [CH-A2. mBHT ¼ 6: Steingrimsson and Gudmundsson. mBHT ¼ 13.1. and mainly for forecasting applications (Zhang et al. In recent years. Yilmaz et al. Dt r 27 h (Da-Xin. Mexico [MXCO1.27 h (Gonza et al. (iv) the generalized Horner or the Kutasov–Eppelbaum method (KEM: Kutasov and Eppelbaum. Initial estimation of SFTs using analytical methods Seven analytical methods based on complex heat transfer models were used for the initial calculation of SFTs..5 h (Hyodo and Takasugi. These data sets were considered for the evaluation of accuracy because the TFTs were already known (SHBE ¼ 80. which is generally unknown or difficult to determine under drilling conditions. (8) Chipilapa. 2002. ´az-Gonza ´ lez et al. (iii) the Kutasov–Eppelbaum method. mBHT ¼ 7. Dt r 15. (iv) the Leblanc method (LM). 2005)]. Philippines [PHIL. Considering this complex scenario. consist of BHT and shut-in time measurements.0 1C. 1973).. 2005. (4) Mississippi wellbore. 1997)].g. The new ANN model requires BHT and shut-in time measurements (as main input data). the accurate knowledge of the mud circulation time. 2005)]. These validation tests were considered as an accuracy evaluation of the ANN model. Dt r 12 h (Schoeppel and Gilarranz. number of BHT measurements (mBHT) ¼ 6. BM. The use of ANN is increasingly in Earth Sciences (e. mBHT ¼ 5: Iglesias et al. mBHT ¼ 15: Cao et al. (v) the cylindrical source with a conductive heat flow or Leblanc method (LM: Leblanc et al. SFT estimates were calculated with seven analytical methods commonly used in geothermal industry. 2005). 2009). Alaska [COST. (ii) the Brennand method.5 h (Iglesias et al. Build-up thermal recovery logs . 2005)].. mBHT ¼ 14. 1995)]. among others. mBHT ¼ 8: Shen and Beck.g. (vi) the cylindrical source with a conductive heat flow or Manetti method (MM: Manetti. BHT and shut-in time) to estimate the SFT with an acceptable accuracy. In addition. and the linear or nonlinear regressions between BHT data and the time functions of each method (Verma et al. 2009). 2000.1192 A.. shut-in times (Dt) up to 36 h after cessation of drilling mud circulation (Andaverde et al. Goutorbe et al. together with SFT estimates inferred from the regression analysis of curvilinear relationships between BHT and shut-in time data using simplified analytical methods. respectively). 1981). and formation materials. 1986. 1984).. The new predictive ANN model was evaluated by using four BHT data sets (two synthetic and two actual borehole data sets) measured in experimental and long logging works where the SFT or the true formation temperature (TFT) was already known. SFTs were estimated using conventional 2. Methodology The ANN model was trained with a geothermal borehole database containing SFT estimates (statistically normalised). (3) Oklahoma. Most of these analytical methods require at least three or more BHT measurements carried out at the same borehole depth but at different shut-in times. the geothermal industry requires new practical tools that use the commonly available data (i. 2001. mBHT ¼ 5. and CLAH. (7) Chipilapa. The SFT is determined through the mathematical solution of each analytical method. mBHT ¼ 40. is also needed by most analytical methods (Hermanrud et al. and KJ-21 ¼ 240 1C. KEM. (v) the Manetti method (MM). These thermal recovery data sets were collected from the reports of boreholes drilled in various world geothermal fields: (1) Los Humeros.. 1998). the development of new reliable methods to estimate SFT is still a challenging area. The seven analytical methods were: (i) the Horner-plot method. b. 2008. 2006.

58 14. Table 2 Listing of major numerical solutions of analytical methods (HM.1 95.5 34. 2000.04 146.3.8 142.5 19. and r ¼ 2306. SFTs were inferred from the intercept values (a) of the OLR.6 114.5 BHT (1C) 93 88 99 108 112 117 120 126 133 133 134 137 141 146 92. Five fundamental .5 MXCO2 tc ¼ 2.0 15. COST (k ¼ 4.58 10. BHT: Bottom-hole temperature.5 15.58 12.0 14.5 12.4 104.3 190.1 116.3 206.5 7.72 143.58 4. 2005).5 72.0 19.5 38. TKEM.5 8.6 126.42 144.4 170.4 110.21 143.5 6 12 26.74 96.6 71.5 98.4 112.9 109.6 108.5 21. CLAH (r ¼ 0.6 69.58 5.5 10.0 26.64 J/kg 1C.0 9.0 11.1 62.0 6.0 96.0 98.8 111.58 5.9 90 102 116 130 145 231 231 235 237 239 240 45.8 247.94 86.7 107.27 CH-A2 tc ¼ 5 h m¼6 KJ-21 tc ¼ 2.5 22.4 115.6 110.03 142. BM.5 h m¼6 COST tc ¼ 4 h m¼6 tc—drilling mud circulation time. TFT ¼ 80 1C).3 112. Santoyo et al.8 111.92 144. m—number of data.4 106.5 20.81 145.3 108..11 57.0 10.5 h m¼6 6 12 18 24 30 36 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 BHT (1C) 186.5 5 7.9 113.8 117. SFTs were inferred from the intercept value of each analytical method: TBM. TFT ¼ 120 1C).0 22.1 95. Dt: shut-in time.9 211.0 75.5 10.0 25. 2.8 235.5 93.2 97.58 9.1 106.5 113.7 6.2 104.7 117.0 12. LM.29 93. 1.58 8.5 7.75 139.76 92.5 24.8 114.0 8. c ¼ 878.21 94.3 113.5 8.58 13.5 h m¼7 CLAH tc ¼ 5 h m ¼ 15 SGIL tc ¼ 3 h m ¼ 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 30 40 50 6 12 26.1 117.5 117. General scheme for the SFT estimation A schematic flow diagram showing the training procedure used by the ANN model is shown in Fig.4 225.0 12.3 101.89 142.1 240. According to the numerical procedure used by each analytical method. SHBE (r ¼ 0.76 147.44 55.58 3.. 2005).9 219.1 118.0 16.4 119.0 102.7 103. MM.27 2 30 52 96 242 556 91. THM.. TMM.2 115. SRM. KJ-21(TFT ¼ 240 1C).7 98.1 95.22 56.1 102.0 107.0 20.44 94.5 103.0 24.108 m. and TSRM.5 14.7 115.108 m.0 7.3 66. Andaverde et al.1 95.5 8.40 146.0 231. the readers are referred to the original sources of the methods (indicated in the introduction section).11 Data set ITAL tc ¼ 5 h m ¼ 40 t (h) 5.7 105.0 27.0 13.00 49.5 9.13 JAPN tc ¼ 5 h m ¼ 10 Data set PHIL tc ¼ 15 h m ¼ 14 t (h) 2.1 85 94 122 139 152 50 125 158 184 218 225 CH-A1 tc ¼ 5 h m¼ 5 CH-A4 tc ¼ 5 h m¼5 USAM tc ¼ 5 h m ¼ 14 1 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 70 100 150 200 138.10028.7 116.5 13.3 64.4 247.5 107.57 47.6 61.1 75. CH-A4 (TFT ¼ 169 1C).5 23.58 11.97 W/m 1C).6 198.9 118.5 17.6 132.5 12.58 7. Data set Borehole data for training the new ANN model t (h) MXCO1 tc ¼ 2.7 178.0 21.60 143.9 112.6 47.55 140.3 111.A.0 26.9 239.4 115.4 105. whereas the weighted linear regressions (WLR) consider the errors of x and y (sx and sy) for the estimation of the regression parameters (Verma.5 10 15 20 30 40 BHT (1C) 56. and CSM) used for determining SFT in geothermal boreholes.5 11.59 94.56 56.1 102.5 9.4 119.25419 W/m 1C.5 16.57 47.1 115. TLM.. additional data reported for each data set: SGIL (R ¼ 0.36 95.7 74. KEM. k ¼ 2. / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 1193 Table 1 Thermal recovery data sets used for ANN training and validation.9 109.2 110.6 kg/m3). Bassam et al.2 114.7 Data set SHBE tc ¼ 5 h m¼8 t (h) 2.4 99.98 95.5 15.0 Synthetic data for the validation BHT (1C) 84.84 90.56 88.27 6.78 81.g.58 6.0 17.5 18.0 18.58 15. For more details of primary and secondary variables. TCSM.5 6. Ordinary linear regressions (OLR) neglect the errors in the x (time functions) and y (BHT) variables for the calculation of the regression parameters: intercept (a) and slope (b). 2005). WLR and QR (e.5 18. Analytical method BM CSM HM KEM LM MM SRM Numerical solution BHT ðt Þ ¼ TBM ÀbBM  1  Dt þ ptc BHT ¼ TCSM + (bCSM)[F(tcD + DtD) À F(tD)] BHT ðt Þ ¼ THM þ ðbHM Þlnfðtc þ Dt Þ=Dt g BHT ðt Þ ¼ TKEM þ bKEM lnðX Þ h  i r2 BHT ðt Þ ¼ TLM ÀbLM 1Àexp À 4aw Dt   Dt BHT ðt Þ  TMM þ bMM ln Dt À tc   ffiffiffiffi BHT ðt Þ ¼ TSRM þ ðbSRM Þ p1 Dt linear (ordinary and weighted) and quadratic (QR) regressions between the BHT and the time function data of each method (see Andaverde et al.3 100.0 16.

LM. and (v) the calculation of temperature gradients using the transient thermal recovery data of the boreholes. and N15 proposed by several authors: see Verma. and secondly. Nine discordant tests (N1. WLR and QR (v) CalculationTransient temperature gradients (iv) Estimation of mean and standard deviation values of SFT using statistical discordant tests to define a normal distribution Mean and standard deviation values: xSFT ± sSFT t. (iii) the determination of the SFT by seven analytical methods using three different regression models: OLR. CSM. CH-A1. N14. BM. WLR. HM. Three SFT estimates were individually inferred from the regression analysis (OLR. 1. / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 (i) Input data sets of geothermal wells (n = 10) BHT (Temp) Shut-in time (t) (ii) Selection of analytical methods and calculation of their time functions: BM. N7. to calculate the mean SFT (xSFT ) and its associated standard deviation (sSFT). KEM. Bassam et al. ITAL.. and COST). containing 120 pairs of BHT and shut-in time data). MM. USAM. N4.T dT/dt ANN Training model Derivation of new equation ANN Results Evaluation Validation Fig. and QR) using each analytical method and referred to each data set. N10. N9. MXCO2. SRM. which contain BHT and shut-in time data. and CSM) were calculated by means of their corresponding equations (Table 2). The time functions of each analytical method (HM. (iv) the application of statistical discordant tests to calculate the mean values of the SFT estimates and their standard deviations per data set. LM. WLR. A total number of 21 SFT estimates per data set were finally computed. mean values of the 21 SFT estimates were computed per data set through a statistical normalisation using the software DODESYS (Verma et al. . 2005) were applied to the 21 SFT estimates of each data set. and QR per data set. KEM. to identify and to reject discordant outliers. N2. JAPN. SFT estimates were individually computed by using the 10 data sets (MXCO1.1194 A. SGIL. sections were included in the training process: (i) the input data reading (j ¼ 10. Schematic flow diagram of ANN model used for determining SFT in geothermal boreholes. CH-A2. For training and correlating the borehole thermal recovery data sets with reliable SFT values. PHIL. firstly. 2009). (ii) the selection of analytical methods and calculation of their time functions per data set. MM and SRM (iii) Estimation of SFT using three regression models OLR. N8.

given by the number of input and output variables of the process under investigation.. Table 3 summarises the results obtained after using the statistical normalisation procedure. ANN architecture The neurons are grouped into distinct layers and interconnected according to a given computational architecture. Ink (i. Mean SFT estimates per data set were: MXCO1: 263 7 15 1C. A simplified sketch of the network structure is schematically represented in Fig. ITAL: 132 7 10 1C.e. These outliers corresponded to the SFT estimates inferred from the SRM which systematically overestimate the SFT (Andaverde et al. and the mean value minus the standard deviation: xSFT ÀsSFT ) (see Table 3). 2. PHIL: 197 7 28 1C. and QR). see Fig. 1998). the mean value plus the standard deviation: xSFT þ sSFT . WLR. while the output layer can contain the output or target variables of the model. Bassam et al.g. The number of neurons in the input and output layers is. the input layer can consist of a set of different variables. Demuth and Beale. shut-in time. Mean SFT estimates obtained from normal statistical samples after applying nine statistical discordant tests. CH-A2: 241 7 18 1C. and SGIL: 100 7 3 1C..A. SFT). it means that the geothermal formation temperature approaches to thermal equilibrium. Each connection among two neurons has a weighting coefficient. The transient temperature gradient (dT/dt) was an important parameter for training the ANN. respectively. 3. and dT/dt). Data set SFT (analytical methods) xSFT 7 sSFT 263 7 15 262 7 18 146 7 1 132 7 10 197 7 28 176 7 18 147 7 5 241 7 18 57 7 3 100 7 3 SFT (predicted—ANN) xANN 7 sANN 256 7 20 253 7 15 139 7 5 133 7 8 185 7 25 180 7 11 151 7 7 243 7 15 56 7 2 102 7 9 MXCO1 MXCO2 USAM ITAL PHIL JAPN CH-A1 CH-A2 COST SGIL 400 350 SFT (analytical methods) °C 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 MXCO1 MXCO2 USAM ITAL PHIL JAPN CH-A1 CH-A2 COST SGIL DATA SET Fig. JAPN: 176 7 18 1C. Thirty discordant outliers were detected and rejected. For the network. CH-A1: 147 7 5 1C.. The linear output layer enables the network to generate values outside the –1 to + 1 range (e. The mean values of the SFT estimates (xSFT ) and their standard deviations (sSFT) per data set were used for the ANN training. The mean SFT estimates and discordant outliers detected after applying the statistical tests are plotted in Fig. 2.4. and the subscripts i provides the transient values of these variables. MXCO2: 262 7 18 1C. 2. 3. COST: 57 7 3 1C. Transient temperature gradients were computed using the following equation: dT ðBHTi þ 1 ÀBHTi Þ ¼ dt ti þ 1 Àti ð1Þ where BHT denotes the bottom-hole temperatures. The standard network structure for an approximation function is the multiple-layer perception (or the well-known feed forward network). BHT. and after applying a statistical normalisation process. 1995). Mean Mean ± sd Outliers Extremes . The feed forward network often has one or more hidden layers of sigmoidal neurons followed by an output layer of linear neurons. USAM: 146 7 1 1C. In this work. Three SFT values were finally employed for transporting the uncertainties (the mean value: xSFT . / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 1195 This method of statistical normalisation enabled the large resulting errors derived from the analytical methods to be efficiently detected and rejected before selecting the best SFT estimates. t the shut-in times. Outl (i. and therefore: limt-1 dT ¼ 0 ‘ ðBHT  SFT Þ dt ð2Þ The SFTANN was defined as the unique output parameter of the ANN model.g. Multiple-layers of neurons with nonlinear transfer functions allow the network to learn nonlinear and linear relationships between input and output vectors. The network function is largely determined by the connections between neurons.. Table 3 Mean SFT estimates inferred from 21 SFT predictions of seven analytical methods (using three different regression models OLR. 2005). Limin. the appropriate notation is used in two-layer networks (e. When (dT/dt) tend to zero at infinite time(t-N).e.

1986). The output layer computes the weighted sum of the signals provided by the hidden layer. According to RMSE results. b1(s). Eq. 6).g. the network output can be expressed by the following general equation: Out ¼ g ðWo f ðWi In þ b1 Þ þ b2 Þ ð4Þ 3. the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) optimisation algorithm (described in the Matlab Neural Network Toolbox) was used (Demuth and Beale. 3. In this work. jÞB SFT ¼ 6 B @ j¼14 ðWi ðj. the algorithm of the ANN model was evaluated by examining the RMSE value per iteration. Eq. Eq. General ANN architecture (k ¼ input number.1196 A. and to avoid the over-fitting problem. Nevertheless. Bassam et al. the RMSE showed that for six neurons in the hidden layer. 1g In1 þ Wifs. 5). 1994). 3. kg Ink þ b1 ðsÞ ð3Þ The coefficients associated with the hidden layer are grouped into a matrix Wi (given by weights) and the vector b1(s) of biases. In this neural network. Neural network learning and testing A learning (or training) algorithm is defined as a process that consists of adjusting the coefficients (weights and biases) of a network. 2g In2 þ Á Á Á þ Wifs. (6) becomes a more efficient descent gradient with a small step size. Herna The comparison of the RMSE calculated for the learning and testing databases was a good criterion to optimize the number of iterations. which is added to the sum of the product (weights multiplied by its corresponding input variables). / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 Newton’s method (Eq. is given by the following equation: ns ¼ Wifs. when m is large. 1998). A good agreement between the SFT estimates (inferred from analytical methods: x-axis) and the simulated data. and it generally depends on the problem complexity. This calculation was used as an optimisation criterion for the model adequacy (Fig. the learning database value was too small with respect to the testing database. As a result. 4). Using the matrix notation. Continuous lines ¼ weights and bias). and the associated coefficients are grouped into a matrix Wo and the vector b2(l). respectively. together with a different number of neurons in the hidden layer (ranging from one to five neurons). one of the problems that could occur during feed-forward neural network training is the well-known ´ ndez-Pe ´ rez et al. n ¼ 120) databases to obtain a statistically representative sample of the problem vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi u n u1 X RMSE ¼ t ð7Þ ðExpðiÞÀSimðiÞÞ2 ni¼1 Fig. the error function gradient can be computed by the classical back propagation model (Rumelhart et al.. and the number of the output variables in the ANN architecture. and JTe is the gradient. It can be observed that the ðWi ðs. e is the vector of network errors. 1994) Â Ã À1 xk þ 1 ¼ xk À J T J þ mI J T e ð6Þ where J is the Jacobian matrix that contains first derivatives of the network errors with respect to the weights and biases. the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Previous learning algorithms have used this gradient directly in a steepest descent optimisation. (7)). The Jacobian matrix can be computed through a standard backpropagation technique (see Hagan and Menhaj. This number (S) is iteratively determined.. The obtained results (data not shown) proved that the typical learning error decreased when the number of neurons in the hidden layer increased. n ¼ 180) and testing (40% of experimental data set. and 6 biases (b1 ¼ 5 and b2 ¼ 1) to calculate a SFT value 2 0 2 1 þ exp À2 K P k¼1 Hidden layer neurons may use any differentiable transfer function to generate their output. to minimize an error function (usually a quadratic one) between the network outputs (for a given set of inputs) and the correct outputs (already known). Out ¼ Output. but recent results have shown that second order methods are far more efficient. The optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer (S) is difficult to specify. S. When the scalar m is zero. the convergence was faster (typically by a factor of 100). SFTANN (obtained from the ANN model: y-axis) was found (Fig. The experimental database (see Table 1) were split into learning (60% of experimental data set. sÞB B 6 @ s¼14 ð8Þ where S and K were already defined and l ¼ 1 (see Table 4). This observation was evident because of the number of adjusted parameters increased. If smooth non-linearities are used. The root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated using the experimental and simulated ANN data (Eq. kÞInðkÞÞ þ b1 ðjÞ 13 C7 C7 7 !! À1C C7 þ b2ðlÞ A5 B S 6 X B 6 6Wo ðl. (4) can be re-written using these transfer functions to provide the following general equation: 2 OutðlÞ ¼ 0 2 1 þ exp À2 K P 13 C7 C7 7 !! À1C C7 þ b2 A5 B S 6 X 6 B 6Wo ð1. During the learning process. ‘‘over-fitting’’ (e. ANN training The new neural network model trained for this work (Fig. (6) becomes the classical Newton’s method using the approximate Hessian matrix. In this work. Despite the fact that computations involved in iterations were more complex than the steepest descent case. the optimal neuron (ns). 2004). In ¼ Input. which is suggested to approach a second order training speed without having to compute the Hessian matrix (Hagan and Menhaj. This algorithm is basically an approximation of . In general. the optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer was fixed as five neurons (Fig. a hyperbolic tangent sigmoidal transfer function (f ¼ tansig) and a linear transfer function (g ¼ purelin) were used. On the other hand. kÞInðkÞÞ þ b1 ðsÞ k¼1 ð5Þ where K. Each neuron in the hidden layer has a bias. The predicted SFT values computed with the ANN model together with their uncertainties are also included in Table 3. and l are the number of input variables. 5) finally involved five neurons (ns ¼ 5) in the hidden layer with 20 weights (15 elements of a matrix Wi and 5 elements of the matrix Wo). JTJ is an approximation of the Hessian matrix.1. (6)).

Fig. (8)) was validated by using the testing data reported for synthetic experiments (SHBE: TFT ¼ 80 1C. and CLAH: true TFT ¼ 120 1C). These coefficients were used to validate the ANN model with testing data. This linear relationship was also confirmed by analyzing the small residuals computed between the measured and predicted SFT values. ANN architecture used for estimating SFT in geothermal boreholes.2. The results from these four accuracy tests showed a good agreement (less than a 7 5%) between the measured SFT (also called TFT) and predicted SFT data (Fig. 4. The optimum weighting coefficients (Wi.5631. and b2) obtained for the ANN model using five neurons in the hidden layer are reported in Table 4. simulated SFTANN data exhibit a good linear relationship with respect to those estimates inferred from analytical methods (y ¼ 0.A. 5. ANN testing The new ANN model (Eq.95). 3. and KJ-21: true TFT ¼ 240 1C) (see Table 1).94376x + 8. and for actual geothermal borehole measurements (CH-A4: TFT ¼ 169 1C. b1. . R2 ¼ 0. 7). Bassam et al. Numerical algorithm of ANN used for learning and optimizing processes. Wo. / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 1197 Geothermal well Analytical Method and Statistical Treatment SFTExp + Temperature Time dT/dt Neural Network (Weights and Bias) SFTSim RMSE Optimization method (Levenberg-Marquardt) Fig.

and SFT values in the interval 117.1 to 247.7251 2. For the synthetic data sets.2657 1. 6. In fact.1 1C for the SHBE data set. with a mean SFTANN value of 243. Whereas for the borehole data sets: CH-A4 and KJ-21. 7). The small residuals calculated with the testing database. the ANN model predicted SFT values ranging from 74. . The predicting accuracy of the ANN could also be improved by using training patterns with a large number of BHT measurements.6–173.3 1C.4449 0. Finally. especially when the BHT data are in the training interval (45 to  263 1C). It only requires BHT and shut-in time measurements as main input data.5 1C. (iii) to optimise the computing time because these models rely on simple mathematical operations (allowing faster calculations). respectively. The ANN application interval could be extended by using higher BHT measurements.6091 À 1. showing a good agreement with errors less than 7 5%. the ANN model developed may enable the implementation of smart sensors for on-line determination (SFT) in geothermal boreholes.0318 À 6. 4. The idea of applying ANN for the estimation of SFT is to propose a new practical and faster tool for the geothermal industry. Bassam et al.3881 À 5. with a mean SFTANN value of 171.1627 À 0. and validated with an unbiased testing database. (8)) provides acceptable estimates of the SFT with typical errors commonly reported in artificial intelligence engineering applications (e. Conclusions A new ANN model was successfully developed to predict the SFT in geothermal boreholes. enabled to confirm the satisfactory agreement between the measured and predicted SFT data (see Fig. ANN parameters Wi With l ¼ 1. and SFT values ranging from 239. 7.4220 13.4320 À 0. as well as the good regression coefficient obtained (R2 ¼ 0. Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank to the Engineering Ph. and (iv) to obtain reliable and faster predictions of SFT in comparison with those inferred from current analytical methods. The ANN model developed was therefore able to predict the SFT throughout the experimental data domain used for the training process (45–263 1C). the ANN model here developed could be coupled with smart BHT sensors for on-line determination of SFT in geothermal boreholes. with a mean SFTANN value of 79.g. b2 Other additional advantages of the ANN model included: (i) to use the ANN tool without any assumptions about the nature of underlying mechanisms.95). the ANN model predicted SFT values in the interval 167.4 1C.1 1C.0967 1.9071 À 6. it can be reliably demonstrated that the new ANN model (given by the Eq. Programme of UNAM and to CONACyT for the financial support provided. Statistical comparison between SFT estimates (inferred from analytical methods) and ANN simulated SFT values.6 1C.2 1C.0095 À 4.5 to 83. Fig.0716 À 6. / Computers & Geosciences 36 (2010) 1191–1199 Table 4 Optimised weighting and bias parameters of new ANN model. with a mean SFTANN value of 122.D. (ii) to have the ability to take into account non-linearities and iterations between input and output variables. From these results.9674 À 2.9757 5.6937 À 10.3519 3. S ¼ 5 and K ¼ 3 3. 2009a).6998 À 0.3583 À 34. Leite and Filho. This feature makes it an advantageous tool over current available analytical methods that strongly depend on other complex input variables. The new ANN model can be used as a practical tool for the reliable determination of SFT in geothermal boreholes.3257 0.4001 Fig.5981 b1 À 5. The ANN model was effectively trained with an experimental database.6209 À 2. and their uncertainties.9996 À 2. Evaluation of ANN accuracy by using a statistical comparison between ANN simulated SFT values and true SFT data or TFT (reported in synthetic and actual borehole data sets).1198 A.5554 À 2. such as the drilling mud circulation time.1 1C for the CLAH data set.5029 Wo À 1.8–125. The validity of the SFT computed by the ANN model was confirmed through a statistical comparison between the measured and simulated values.

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