MINISTRY OF ECONOMY

A STUDY OF POLAND’S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE 1ST QUARTER OF 2012

STRATEGY AND ANALYSES DEPARTMENT
Warsaw, June 2012

The mission of the Ministry of Economy is to create the best conditions for business activity in Europe

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............................................................................................ 11 Growth in domestic trade turnover… ..................................................... 18 Recovery of exports… ..................................................Contents Synthesis ................................... 12 Inflation… .................................................... 13 Labour market – gradual improvement…........................................................................................................................... 21 3 ....................................................................................................... 16 Public finances... 5 Stable growth… ......................................... 9 Significant improvement in construction… ................ 7 Industry – positive sentiments maintained… ..................................... salaries and social benefits… ..................... 17 Monetary policy and exchange rate…..................................................................................... .............................................................. 10 Agriculture… ...................... 20 Balance of payments … ......... 14 Increase in wages..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

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Volume of retail sales increased by 8.9% in entities with more than 9 employees (yoy). in which fuels by 15. the economic performance of Poland seems to be very sound.7 pp. determined by a gradual increase in salaries pace in real terms and increase in employment.1% and growth of investment by 8. as an effect of the increase in individual consumption of 3.4bn and was by 0. Such a good result was mainly caused by intensification of preparation process to European Football Championships 2012 and continuation of projects shifted from 2010. In the 1st quarter of 2012 domestic trade results improved in the comparison with the same period of 2010. In I-III 2012 production in construction rose by 14. Taking into account other countries of the European Union.3%.7bn and was by 1. making Poland one of the European growth leaders.4% in entities with more than 9 employees.9% in entities with more than 9 employees compared to corresponding period of 2011. In the period of January-March 2012 sold production of industry increased by 4. The main factor of economic growth was the domestic demand. • • • • • • • 5 . comparing to previous year (EUR -3.1%.Synthesis • 2010-2011 was the period of gradual recovery of the potential of Polish economy. According to provisional NBP data. in the period of I-III 2012 deterioration of the balance of the current account was observed. It was caused by recovery in an internal demand.7%.0%. The largest share of Polish imports came from Germany (21. Among the main recipients of Polish goods were Germany (26.1% and construction prices increased by 1.1%).6%). According to CSO preliminary data.7%) and China (9. Russia (14. and contribution of net exports reached +0.6%.6bn against EUR -3. According to preliminary CSO data in the period of January-March 2012 the volume of the exports – in current prices – amounted to EUR 33.6%). In the period of January-March 2012 the annual average consumer price index (CPI) amounted to 4.3% higher than year before. The biggest growth was observed in manufacturing (by 5.7bn yoy.4% lower than in the previous year. The volume of imports stood at EUR 36.4%). The negative balance of foreign trade turnover reached a level of EUR 2.1bn). Simultaneously producer price index surged by 6.4% (yoy). The annually GDP growth was maintained at similar level during consecutive quarters.7%) and France (6. The fastest growth was observed in transport prices (by 9.5%.0% of Polish exports). In 2011 GDP growth amounted to 4.7bn and improved by EUR 0. The costs of the use of housing and energy carriers increased by 6. UK (6. after slowdown observed in 2009. GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2012 amounted to 3.3%).

6% compared to the previous year and amounted to 5. As regards the foreign exchange market. An average euro exchange rate.8% yoy. The unemployment rate amounted to 13.5bn.5bn.1370 EUR/PLN and 3.3 thous. US dollar exchange rate amounted to PLN 3. on yearly basis. in average terms. in the period of January-March 2012. the Monetary Policy Council didn’t change interest rates.2285 and increased by 11. At the end of March 2012. In the period of January-March 2012.0bn.142 thous.• In I-III 2012. salaries in enterprise sector increased by 5. persons. In the 1st quarter of 2012 the budget revenues stood at PLN 63. considering the changes made so far to be sufficient.545 thous. when expenditures amounted to PLN 86.664. less than in February). the number of registered unemployed amounted to 2. In the 1st quarter 2011.1320 USD/PLN • • • • 6 . Polish zloty weakened both to US dollar and euro.increased comparing to the corresponding period of 2011. Retirement payments. persons (by 26. In March 2012 an average exchange rate reached levels of respectively 4. pensions from non-agriculture security system.6% of amount planned in Law Act for the whole year.2% yoy. pensions of individual farmers and salaries in enterprises – by means of purchasing power . thus favoring the return of inflation to the path approaching the NBP inflation target.2339 and was higher by 7.3% and was at the same level as in March 2011. The nominal budget deficit amounted to PLN 23. so 65.3% in nominal terms to PLN 3. amounted to PLN 4. the average employment in the enterprise sector increased by 0.

0 8.0 -2. which increased the probability of larger than previously expected deviations from the initial trends. Both the high activity of domestic companies (the increase in investment and production) and the stable growth of consumption expenditure of households favour the growth.3 3.0 -4.0 0.3 VII-IX X-XII 2012* 1. Polish economic growth is still one of the highest in Europe. There has been a strong revival of foreign trade turnover.4 *CSO provisional estimation 3. Slightly faster growth in exports than imports translated into a positive contribution of net exports to GDP growth (0. forecasts of main economic trends in 2011 were pressured by a high degree of uncertainty. in 2011 GDP (in real terms) was higher than in 2010 by 4. Despite negative trends in economic environment. 7 .7 3.2 4. as a result of steady investment potential recovery in the economy (started from the 3rd q.7 percentage points). According to preliminary CSO data. Upward tendency was remained in consecutive quarters of 2011. was an additional factor which threw doubt on predictions.7 4. GDP growth amounted to 3.0 4.3%. GDP growth rate in 2009-2012 2009 YoY I-III 2010 3.7 YoY 0.6%.9 I-III IV-VI VII-IX X-XII I-III IV-VI 2011* 4.0 1. GDP growth decomposition analysis implies that the highest pace of growth was noticed in investments.Stable growth… Demand recovery. Increase in domestic demand amounted to 3. The risk of exit of any Member State of the euro zone.0 2. in the 1st quarter of 2012. started in the last quarter of 2009.5%. of 2010).0 -6.7 pp).6 IV-VI VII-IX X-XII I-III 1. Decomposition of GDP in the years 2000 – 2012 % 10. Moreover a positive influence for the GDP growth was made by the net exports (0.0 6. Table 1.2 4.2 4.0 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Individual consumption Accumulation Public consumption Net exports Source: SAD MoE calculations based on the CSO data In view of the rapid changes in the euro area fiscal situation. together with a moderate consumption growth. Polish economic growth remains one of the highest in Europe. This tendency.7 4.5 Source: CSO Chart 1. was continued and significant improvement was observed in the middle of 2010. According to CSO estimate.6 4. shows domestic demand as a main growth factor.2 2.

This was a result of increased infrastructure investments connected with EURO 2012.I-III VII. Gross value added growth by sections in the years 2004-2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 1st q.6 109.0 106. Table 2. Value added in market services sector. Also.I-III VII.5 110.8 103.8 109.0 101.I-III VII.I-III VII.3 107. In the 1st quarter of 2012.2 103.I-III VII.9 Market services 104.0% mainly due to increase in value added in the construction sector. which share in gross value added enhanced to over 8%.3 Industry 101.5 103. according to CSO preliminary data.6 Construction 102.I-III VII.3 106. Increase in gross fixed capital formation (seventh quarter in a row) was caused by a high degree of capacity utilization and the realization of postponed investments. the value added in industry maintained an upward trend and grew by about 7% in the last quarter.8 111.8 107.6 105. as well as real wages growth.I-III VII.4 105. Nevertheless domestic demand will still remain the main growth contributor.2%. Gross value added growth by economy sectors in the years 2000 – 2012 (corresponding period of the previous year=100) 150 Industry Construction Market services 140 130 120 110 c 100 90 80 I-III VII. due to performance of a real estate and business support sectors. An obstacle for investment projects realization was a precaution of positive economic assessment in main Polish trade partners.Slightly lower than a year ago growth in private consumption was due to an increase of food price and use of housing.8 111.9 105. gradually increased in consecutive quarters.I-III VII.0 110.I-III VII. gross value added grew by 4.6 106.a.5 100.I-III VII. Chart 2.0%.4 111. gross value added amounted to 3. 3. of 2012* 103. as well as enterprises investments.I-III 2000 IX 2001 IX 2002 IX 2003 IX 2004 IX 2005 IX 2006 IX 2007 IX 2008 IX 2009 IX 2010 IX 2011 IX 2012 Source: CSO We expect that in 2012 the pace of economic growth will slow down comparing to 2011. and will reach c.3 101. Even the high rate of investments increase will not be able to compensate significantly lower consumption growth.5 105.4 110.I-III VII.2 * SAD MoE calculations based on the CSO data Source: CSO In the four-quarters period of 2011. and low base effect. 8 .

CSO.5% and an increase in the monthly gross wages by 6.6%). In the 1st q. Changes in the sold production of industry in the years 2010-2012 (corresponding period of the previous year=100) 114 2010 2011 2012 112 110 108 106 104 102 I I-II I-III I-IV I-V I-VI I-VII I-VIII I-IX I-X I-XI I-XII Source: Statistical Bulletins. durable consumer goods (by 0. The most considerable drop was noticed in the manufacture pharmaceuticals (by 7.7% comparing to the previous year. In the period of January-March 2012 27 out of 34 industrial divisions recorded growth in production.7% yoy).9% growth of sold industry production was recorded. related to energy goods (by 0.6%. The highest growth was observed in the manufacture of tobacco products (by 19. metal products (by 15.Industry – positive sentiments maintained… In the year 2011 . manufacture of furniture (by 3. and in entities employing more than 9 persons. of 2012 4.0%) and chemicals and chemical products (by 13.7%) and mining of coal and lignite (by 4.1% yoy). intermediate goods (by 5. The biggest scope of growth was noticed in manufacturing (by 5.4% higher yoy.6%. As a result of that dynamics of analyzed indicator stood positive .5% yoy). It is expected that in 2012. of 2011 – growth by 9.5%. measured by production per 1 employee. so producing non-durable consumer goods (by 9. industrial output growth will reach a growth rate of 4.4% yoy).under CSO estimation . with the average employment being higher by 0.ninth quarter in row. Moreover the result was achieved with a high statistical base from the previous year (1st q. 9 .8%).2%).4%) Chart 3.6%). 2010-2012 Growth of the sold production of industry has been recorded in the enterprises representing all main industry groups. in the 1st quarter of 2012 was by 5. increased by 7.6%). comparing to the corresponding period of 2011.on a yearly basis .industrial output for complete statistical population increased by 7.9%). capital goods (by 4. Labour productivity in the industry.

2010-2012 During the analyzed period . in 2011 rate of growth in construction and assembly production (for the complete population) increased by 12.0% pace of growth. when the weather conditions effectively limited the activity in the construction sector. Despite the high base of the previous year.e. specialised construction services (by 10.8%). While the number of dwellings in private construction has increased by 14.8% yoy).1%) and buildings construction (by 4.there has been observed an increase in the construction and assembly production in the enterprises representing all industry’s sections.0%.3 thousand of dwellings has been completed.Significant improvement in construction… According to the CSO estimations. In the 1st q. Data concerning the number of granted permits for dwellings (higher by 2. growth of dwellings for sale or rental number was sharply higher (by 65.8%. it is expected that the construction and assembly output in 2012 will reach 7.7%). Such a good result was mainly caused by intensification of preparation process to European Football Championships 2012 and continuation of projects shifted to 2011 from 2010.e. i.6%) and amount of dwellings being constructed (growth by 1.3% yoy) in the analyzed period are positive for the overall condition of the construction sector. i. CSO. Chart 4.3%. 31.considering the type of construction works .9% more than in the previous year1. This result will be strictly affected by continuation of investment projects related to Euro 2012 and maintaining of a high level of activity in housing and services construction. Construction and assembly production indices in the years 2010-2012 (corresponding period of the previous year=100) 145 2010 2011 2012 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 I I-II I-III I-IV I-V I-VI I-VII I-VIII I-IX I-X I-XI I-XII Source: Statistical Bulletins. of 2012 36. In the companies employing more than 9 employees the growth approached 16. In the period of January-March 2012 construction and assembly production in entities with more than 9 employees increased by 14.9%. comparing to the 1st quarter of 2011. specialized in civil engineering (36. 1 Provisional CSO data 10 .

4% comparing to the same period in 2011. On the farmers’ market prices of both basic cereals showed a similar trend.3 97.6%).3% (yoy). the prices of cattle for slaughter rose by 19.3 95. whereas in the case of purchase of rye the significant drop was observed and it reached 30. Table 3.3% and rye price surged by 5.5% and rye increased by 4.6% (yoy). 11 .1 102.0 101.7% (accompanied by drop in rye purchase by 14. In the 1st quarter of the year 2012 average poultry for slaughter purchase prices surged by 11.9 89. According to provisional estimates.8 102.8% (yoy) and prices of pigs for slaughter increased by 28.1% in March 2012.4 103.8 94.7 96.9% comparing with March 2011.8% (yoy). the gross agricultural output reached a slightly increase by 1.9%. The prices of cattle for slaughter on farmers’ markets surged by 18. the purchase of cereals with corn mixture without sowing grain decreased by 2.7 97.2 108. Average potato prices on the farmers’ markets decreased by 58.6 105. Comparing with March 2011 wheat price decreased by 12.1% comparing with analogous period of the previous season. Gross agricultural production in the years 2004-2011 (constant prices) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* Gross output Crop output Animal output * provisional data 107.9% and poultry for slaughter increased by 23.5 Source: CSO In March 2012 the grain purchase increased by 1.2%.5% whereas animal output drop by 3.Agriculture… According to provisional data.5%.1 105. the average price of 1 kg pigs for slaughter on both markets were still significantly higher than last year. in 2011 crop output increased by 5.8 105.5 96.7 88. but in a lower scope.2 98.9 103.5 116.4%). As a consequence.3% (yoy). In the same time the purchase of wheat increased by 15.0 101.5%. Despite the seasonal decline.9 108.3 105.8% and prices of pigs for slaughter increased by 31. Prices of wheat decreased by 8. In the period of July 2011 – March 2012 as a result of increase in wheat purchase by 3. Milk prices in analyzing period was higher by 8.3%. on the market of animals for slaughter in the period of January-March 2012 the purchases of pigs for slaughter decreased by 25.9 102.

motorcycles.4% higher than a year before. is an effect of internal consumption demand stabilization. In enterprises with more than 9 employees the rise of 7. comparing to the corresponding period of the previous year.9% yoy).3%). Nevertheless the pace of growth will presumably be slightly lower than noticed in 2011.8%) and ‘furniture.7% and 4. other sale in specialized stores’ (by 5.3 2 3 constant prices current prices 12 . in which wholesale sold by wholesale enterprises increased by 7. Chart 5.3%. Maintaining such a high scope of growth in subsequent quarters in a row (II. 8. Drop in retail sales – considering the type of enterprise activity – was noticed only in a group ‘newspapers. In the 1st quarter of 2012. ‘liquid and gas‘ and ‘others’ by respectively 5. constant prices) 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 2010 95 I I-II I-III I-IV I-V I-VI I-VII I-VIII 2011 I-IX I-X I-XI 2012 I-XII Source: Statistical Bulletins. part’ (by 23. was recorded in a groups with the biggest share in retail sales in general.1% and 6.3% was recorded2. than a year before. CSO. Retail sales indices in the years 2010-2012 (corresponding period of the previous year = 100. Among other groups the most significant increase concerns entities representing groups ‘motor vehicles. We expect that during coming quarters retail sales dynamics will still remain above previous year’s levels. beverages and tobacco products’ (increase by 4. of 2011 – increase by respectively 8.0%.8%. books. IV q. III.Growth in domestic trade turnover… In 2011 volume of retail sales for complete statistical population exceeded previous year’s level by 1. TV and household appliances’ (by 19. 2010-2012 Higher sales.9%). so ‘sales of food. In the 1st quarter of 2012 wholesale of trade companies employing more than 9 persons was by 6.0% yoy. radio. 7.4% growth of retail sales was recorded.1% yoy).

the CPI reached 4.3%. the result of high demand for industrial production. 4 13 . Dubai oil and West Texas Intermediate oil. increasing employment and wages in the sector.14 pp. during the consecutive quarters the pace of of prices of consumer goods and services growth will slow down. among others. In December 2011 inflation rate was 4.). On the other hand wheat prices drop by 14. Price of oil counted by means of APSP. including energy carriers (by 6.8%).1% higher than in the corresponding period of 2011. prices of construction output will grow in subsequent periods. In the first quarter of 2011.9% higher than in the 1st q.7%. In the opposite direction the strongest impact was made by clothing and footwear (-0.6% yoy).9% to the average January-March 201 prices level. and poultry by 7.02 pp. In each month of this period the price level of goods and services was both above the NBP's inflation target range and acceptable deviations level.). of 2012 retail sales grew by 8. in 2012 the average annual CPI inflation rate will reach a level of c. In the 1st q. Increase of prices was recorded in all industry sections.a. significant prices increase was noticed in transportation (by 9. January-March 2012 prices increase was caused by a higher dynamics of food and nonalcoholic beverages prices (by 4. Industry prices dynamics acceleration was. house charges (+1. Moreover.6%).4% yoy). In analyzed period. It will result from a high base of last year and expectations of economic activity stabilization at a slightly lower level than in 2011. 3. In the 1st quarter of 2012 prices increase was mainly affected by relatively wide volatility of food. of 2012 prices of sold production of industry were on average by 6.28 pp.3%). and the highest was noticed in manufacturing (by 6. Food commodities prices rose in a similar pace (among them mainly barley .3 pp.0% yoy. However it is expected that due to a gradual improvement in business activity of construction industry.to the previous year (by 1. such as rising consumer demand (in the 1st q. so an average weighted aggregate composed of Brent oil.2%).) and to the level assumed in the budgetary law (by 2. Internal factors.).0%).Inflation… In 2011 the average price index of consumer goods and services amounted to 4.4% yoy) and wage pressure. which was a result of growth in employment.7 pp.by 8.). and increase in prices of raw materials on the global market. Despite inflationary pressures maintaining in the beginning of 2012.28 pp. energy and raw material prices on the international market. As a result. The biggest contribution to prices increase in analyzed period was made by prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages (+1.0%).) and communications prices (-0. of 2011 average price level) and natural gas (increase by 35.1% yoy.30 pp. among energy carriers the highest prices growth was observed in oil4 (12. Besides that housing charges rose (by 6.6% yoy. The pace of prices increase was higher comparing both .) and transportation (+1. In the analyzed period prices in construction and assembly production rose by 1.4% in comparison with the previous year. as a result of fuels prices growth (by 15.

5 16.7 105. The highest annual increase occurred in professional.4 51. Forecasts about the growth rate of industrial production and construction and assembly stabilization can be expected in the coming months (year on year) employment will continue to grow.5% yoy).049 148 110 481 1.5 105. The average employment in enterprise sector (thous.545 2.750 13.5 101. waste management and remediation activities Construction Trade.679 13. 2011-2012 14 .027 Source: CSO In the period of January-March 2012 an average employment in enterprises sector was higher than in the previous year (0.9 102.4 Does not include divisions: Scientific Research and Development.110 472 115 164 98 158 315 I-III 2012 5.6 50. The highest drop was registered in the accommodation and catering (by 4.5 104.1 9.6 95. steam and air conditioning supply Water supply.0 102. The economic activity rate and employment rate were higher comparing to the 1st quarter of 2011 while the unemployment rate increased. It implies enlargement of workforce supply.120 484 109 171 97 168 307 2012/2011 100.5 thous. repair of motor vehicles Transportation and storage Accommodation and catering Information and communication Real estate activities Professional. Primary LFS’ score in 2011-2012 1st q of 2011 2nd q of 2011 3rd q of 2011 4th q of 2011 1st q of 2012 Economic activity rate (%) Employment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) Employed persons (thousand) Unemployed persons (thousand) Economically inactive persons (thousand) 55. Source: Statistical Bulletin.8 97. It also suggests changes in the number of employees observed at month to month.545.000 56.981 1.0 15.) Total Industry Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity.1 10.8%).0 50. Veterinary activities.061 154 107 458 1.478 171 2.1 99.284 1.6% yoy) and reached 5.883 14. sewerage.0 50.490 168 2.8 99.5 15.875 1.690 14.8 9. which could be determined by a positive evaluation of labour market perspectives.904 56.771 14.201 1.511 2.7 16. gas.103 56.6 99. science and technical activitiesa Administrative and support service activities a I-III 2011 5. CSO.Labour market – gradual improvement… In the first quarter of 2012 all the main indicators of the labour market were comparable to the same period of the previous year.5 10. Table 4. scientific and technical activities (5.7 9.3 50. Table 5.0 100.934 56.4 96.3 16.163 1.

both in terms of employment growth and reduction in the number of people unemployed. 3. the unemployment rate at the end of 2012 should shape up at around 12. The signals of improving the economic situation meant that the picture of the labour market is gradually improving. the number of registered unemployed and unemployment rate were volatile.e. 4. manufacture of metal products manufacture of other transport equipment printing and reproduction of recorded media manufacture of basic metals 104.0 18.5%.0 12.800 16.9 1. It was the result of enterprises adjustment to lower costs of labour demand through flexible forms of employment.2 91. Chart 6. manufacture of textiles 3. 15 .7 93. by 0.4% higher than in the same month of the previous year. were observed in divisions: 1.0 2.6 103.0 1.300 registered unemployment rate 20. i.0 1.300 14. 2. The unemployment rate ranged from 10.1% in the warmińsko-mazurskie voivodeship.300 I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8.6 92.Among divisions of manufacturing the highest changes in dynamics of employment. persons 22. manufacture of wearing apparel 2.0 % number of unemployed 3. The number of the unemployed and registered unemployment rate thous. but an improvement of both indices was observed in March. Despite the global economic activity slowdown.0 2. Today improvement in the labour market is expected.800 10.2 103.1 103. Therefore.0% in wielkopolskie voivodeship to 21.142 persons. It is expected that unemployment rate in the coming months will be decreasing (though seasonal factors). manufacture of beverages In the period of I-III 2012.3% and was at the same level as in March 2011. in the first three months of 2012. in recent years there has been no significant deterioration of indices. The unemployment rate amounted to 13.0 Source: CSO At the end of March 2012 the number of registered unemployed shaped at the level of 2.

390 3. Among divisions of manufacturing just in one of them a drop in the average gross salary was recorded.Increase in wages.207 5.791 5.653 3.496 3.514 5.331 2.016 (0.5 110.3% against 2011).617 3.664 (growth by 5.1 108.6 107.3 108.477 3.3 106. Average gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector Total Industry Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity. electrical equipment 3.0 Does not include divisions: Scientific Research and Development.744 5.0 104.528 6.212 3.557 3.4 103.8 98. repair of motor vehicles Transportation and storage Accommodation and catering Information and communication Real estate activities a Professional. CSO.664 3.1 104.357 3.3% in the 1st quarter of 2012.4 104. sewerage.6% and reached a level of PLN 1.0 I-III 2011 3. waste management and remediation activities Construction Trade. The average monthly retirements payments and pensions from non-agricultural social security system amounted to PLN 1. The highest dynamics in wages and salaries took place in manufacture of: 1.437 6. The average retirement payments and pensions of individual farmers increased in analyzed period by 4. other transport equipment 2.7 108.486 2.5 100.2% yoy in real terms). 2011-2012 The purchasing power of wages in the enterprise sector increased by 1.6 105.543 3.775 which is 5.479 3.832 3.244 I-III 2012 3.0% (in nominal terms) and 0.2 106. steam and air conditioning supply Water supply.6% (in real terms) higher than a year before. science and technical activities Administrative and support service activities a 110.422 5.0 103.544 5.345 2. Source: Statistical Bulletins.943 3. 16 . machinery and equipment Table 6. gas.467 2012/2011 105. salaries and social benefits… In the period of January-March 2012 the average gross salary in enterprise sector amounted to PLN 3. Veterinary activities. In the first three months of 2012 the social security benefits in nominal terms rose too.540 3.300 2.

9 % 21.5bn (growth by 1. The shares of domestic and foreign debt servicing expenditures amounted to respectively 11.9 50. accounted for 72. the most significant increase was made by domestic debt servicing.9 45.3 26.6 21.3 11.0 65.9 10.1bn (in nominal terms) and was higher comparing to PLN 44. Expenditures shaped at a level of PLN 302.2 -1.7 39.3 291. to the Pension Fund Subs.8 7. 17 .8 24.0 2.1% of the total amount of incomes executed in the period of January-March 2012.0 -23.6% higher (yoy) revenues from indirect taxes (including VAT – PLN 31.3 35.6% planned in the Budgetary Law.6 12.5 32.5 63.5% yoy in nominal terms).8 -0.4 0. and expenditures amounted to PLN 86.1 pp.1 45.6% planned in the Budgetary Law.2%.6bn in 2010. which was 1. As far as expenditures are concerned.9 12.8 63. Budget balance stood at PLN -23.0bn. It’s share in the total expenditures represented 10.6 -35.0 -4...9 40.8% planned in the Budgetary Law.0 73. to Social Insurance Fund General subs.9% and 45.2 3.3 percentage points lower than in 2010. higher.5 -4.1 0.7 23.0% yoy in nominal terms).6 98.0 26. State budget performance in I-III 2012 (in bn PLN) Revenues Taxes and non-taxes Indirect taxes PIT CIT EU and other funds without repayment Expenditure Domestic debt servicing Foreign debt servicing Subs.0 22.5 5.8 4.1 23.8 328.5bn (growth by 8.7bn and represented 96. Table 7. the biggest input was made by 5.3 19.5 27.9 14.7 20.5 While income side is taken into account. and comparing to the previous year revenues execution by 1.4 69.6 5.6 10. As a consequence budget deficit amounted to PLN 25.1 10.8 86. In the period of January-March 2012 budget revenues shaped at level of PLN 63.7 28. 2011 budget revenues amounted to PLN 277.2 17.Public finances.4 21. to local self-government entities BALANCE Financing of EU budget funds DEFICIT FINANCING SOURCES DOMESTIC Treasury bonds Bonds Proceeds from privatisation Pre-financing actions with EU resources Foreign Source: Ministry of Finance Budgetary Law Performance 293.2 17.5 32.6bn and represented 101.7bn).5 39.9 196.2 1.1 98.2 3.4 66.9 15.

Chart 7. as a result of risk aversion reduction in a global financial markets.0%. The MPC considered the changes made so far to be sufficient. In the second half of the first quarter of 2012.25 pp. NBP interest rates in the years 2001-2012 % 25 Lombard Rediscount Reference Deposit Discount 20 15 10 5 0 2012-01-01 2011-10-01 2011-07-01 2011-04-01 2011-01-01 2010-10-01 2010-07-01 2010-04-01 2010-01-01 2009-10-01 2009-07-01 2009-04-01 2009-01-01 2008-10-01 2008-07-01 2008-04-01 2008-01-01 2007-10-01 2007-07-01 2007-04-01 2007-01-01 2006-10-01 2006-07-01 2006-04-01 2006-01-01 2005-10-01 2005-07-01 2005-04-01 2005-01-01 2004-10-01 2004-07-01 2004-04-01 2004-01-01 2003-10-01 2003-07-01 2003-04-01 2003-01-01 2002-10-01 2002-07-01 2002-04-01 2002-01-01 2001-10-01 2001-07-01 2001-04-01 2001-01-01 Source: NBP Under favorable economic data coming from Polish economy. monetary policy will be properly adjusted. in January.1370 EUR/PLN and 3. April. on yearly basis.2% yoy. in the first quarter of 2012 the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates at 2011 levels. due to resolving debt problems of Greece. each time raised by 0. were increasing fiscal problems in euro area as well as unfavorable data from many economies. Since the beginning of 2012 zloty steadily strengthened against both US dollar and euro. US dollar exchange rate amounted to PLN 3. In March 2012 an average exchange rate reached levels of respectively 4.2285 and increased by 11. taking into account the uncertainty about the external economic situation. Polish zloty weakened both to US dollar and euro. October and December 2011. since the beginning of the year. amounted to PLN 4.8% yoy.1320 USD/PLN.0%. the process of 18 . thus favoring the return of inflation to the path approaching the NBP inflation target. and Rediscount 4. An average euro exchange rate. In the end of December 2010 the interest rates shaped at a level of: Reference – 4. Deposit – 3. Lombard – 6.5%. May and June. MPC has also reserved that in case of better-than-expected results of the level of domestic economic activity.75%. While zloty soundly got stronger against US dollar. against US dollar and euro.Monetary policy and exchange rate… In 2011 interest rates were changed four times. In the first two quarters of 2011 zloty fluctuated in relatively tight range. In the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2011 sharp depreciation of zloty was noticed both. The main factor which determined the scale of demand on Polish currency. This influenced on portfolio investments withdrawal from emerging markets (depreciation in these countries). In the period of January-March 2012. in average terms. Nevertheless in the middle of December zloty recorded the lowest value. Short term trend backward was noticed due to NBP market interventions. made in September.2339 and was higher by 7. its value remained more or less unchanged against euro. against euro and US dollar.

Despite the uncertainty about the strength of economic recovery in the U. leading to the consolidation of the zloty in a fairly narrow scope of fluctuation in relation to dollar and euro. it is estimated that zloty still has appreciation potential. Zloty against the EUR and the US dollar (nominal exchange rates) PLN 5.0 2000-01-03 2000-05-03 2000-09-03 2001-01-03 2001-05-03 2001-09-03 2002-01-03 2002-05-03 2002-09-03 2003-01-03 2003-05-03 2003-09-03 2004-01-03 2004-05-03 2004-09-03 2005-01-03 2005-05-03 2005-09-03 2006-01-03 2006-05-03 2006-09-03 2007-01-03 2007-05-03 2007-09-03 2008-01-03 2008-05-03 2008-09-03 2009-01-03 2009-05-03 2009-09-03 2010-01-03 2010-05-03 2010-09-03 2011-01-03 2011-05-03 2011-09-03 2012-01-03 Source: NBP 19 . The main risk factor is still fragile situation in the Polish business environment. and stabilization in economic activity in the European Union at a relatively low level.5 3.0 2. It is therefore not excluded that the next short-term deviations on appreciation trend of zloty .S.determined mainly by external factors – will emerge in a subsequent quarters.0 1 USD 4.5 1 EUR 4.5 2.strengthening the national currency has slowed significantly. Chart 8.0 3.

1% (+1.4 Imports Share of total (%) 63.7 less than in the analogous period of 2011).5 -1. so about 5. imports – 14.9 pp). about 3.9 -3. It was an effect of recovery on global market and growing turnovers with countries of Central and Eastern Europe (increase in the share of exports by 1.1 pp).8 pp).7 8.1%).1 +1. in the period of January-March 2012 the value of exports denominated in EUR (in current prices) was higher by 1.8 +1.3% (-0.0% higher than in previous year.5% more than in 2011. The negative balance of a foreign trade turnover will reach a level of EUR 11. Russia: Exports (in €) increased by 32. In 2012 exports is expected to reach a level of EUR 143.3% compared to the similar period of 2011 and reached a level of EUR 33. Imports estimates to EUR 155. The imports value decreased by 0. 20 . and imports by 35.7bn. Share of total Poland’s exports – 26. imports – 21.0% (-0.7 Change (pp) -3.9 -0. Geographical structure of Polish foreign trade in the period I-III 2012 Exports Share of total (%) Change (pp) -2. Table 8.7% (+3. and imports by 3.2 +4.4% and amounted to EUR 36. and reached a level of EUR 2.4% and imports by 4.8 7.7 19.7%. Share of total Poland’s exports – 5.2 pp).8 Poland’s main trading partners in the period January-March 2012 (comparing to the corresponding period of the year 2011): Germany: Exports (in €) decreased by 0.3bn. China: Share of total Poland’s imports – 9.5bn.5 pp).1 Developed countries European Union Developing countries Central and East European countries Source: CSO 83.5%.7bn.9 56.4bn.6%.4%.7 bn (0.5 77.Recovery of exports… According to CSO preliminary data. The trade balance was negative.1 % (+0.4 16.

970 3.244 473 10. Chart 9.501 -3. This was mainly due to individual transaction in February.335 -4.693 10.654 2009 2010 2011* -15.1bn in the previous year.013 3.590 28.115 133.674 125. An outflow of foreign direct investments at the level of EUR 2.793 10.8bn was also noticed.719 -3.429 -956 -12.063 10.214 -16.495 -5.073 35.071 19.642 2.784 -20.175 149.072 26.015 6.293 I-III 2012* -3.736 -979 -784 11.066 4.136 2.335 -14.421 2.082 142.849 5.623 -2. Current account balance cumulatively (million EUR) mn EUR 2 000 0 -2 000 -4 000 -6 000 -8 000 -10 000 -12 000 -14 000 -16 000 2010 2011 2012 -18 000 I I-II I-III I-IV I-V I-VI I-VII I-VIII I-IX I-X I-XI I-XII Source: NBP In the analyzed period cumulative current account balance deficit amounted to EUR 3.313 8. when special purpose entity has ended up its activity (withdrawal of capital in transit).143 139.365 1.900 37. -23.118 1.755 4.899 101. Balance of payments in the years 2008-2012 (in million EUR) 2008 Current account Trade balance Export revenues Import expenditure Services’ balance Income balance Current transfers balance Capital account Financial account Direct Polish external investment Direct foreign investment in Poland Portfolio investment (assets) Portfolio investment (liabilities) Other investment (assets) Other investment (liabilities) *preliminary data.071 107.973 940 -3.786 1.678 -3.976 5.341 -11.441 -8.392 6.349 4. monthly estimates.675 2.935 3.318 4.836 -12.178 19.855 -2.121 17.138 9.770 -161 4.297 4.058 -3. this did not affect the balance of direct investment.473 -8. However.902 -2.464 974 1.445 24. Table 9.6bn against EUR -3.186 -2.Balance of payments … Preliminary data of NBP for the period January-March of 2012 indicates deterioration in the balance of payments in comparison to 2011.057 Source: NBP 21 .935 -10.440 4.931 121.

2 100.544 9.060 5.12 III 2011 III 2012 I-III 2012 103.7 103.gross fixed capital formation Prices Year-on-year price index of consumer goods and services (CPI) dynamics 104.12 109.5 104.5 Year-on-year price index of sold production dynamics of industry (PPI) Production1 Sold production of industry Construction and assembly production Wages and salaries Average wages and salaries in the national economy. % PLN PLN PLN PLN dynamics dynamics 107.7 20123 103.export revenues .546 -14.750 1.5 7.1 111.2792 33.0 101.8 Unit dynamics dynamics dynamics dynamics dynamics 2011 104.829 1.509 3.664 1.9 114.752 1.A 112.700 143.6 106.771 1.7542 150.339 13.124 7.5 3.797 1.pers.32 102.non-agricultural social security system .9 104.3 7.728 986 5.5 103.3 109.327 12.9 103.non-agricultural social security system .539 3.0 3.individual farmers Labour market Average employment in enterprise sector Average number of retirees and pensioners .concerns complete statistical population 22 .4562 -2.634 1.5 101.A 106.6542 36. June 2012 POLAND’S MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 2011-2012 Specification GDP Consumption .000 1.unless otherwise indicated data concerns entities employing more than 9 persons 2. thous.9 104.297 13.enterprise sector Average retirement pay and pension .3 7.4032 -11. of which: . thous.MINISTRY OF ECONOMY Strategy and Analyses Department Warsaw.2 102.3 12.775 1.0 103.6 104.8 124.7022 135.12 103.7 104.6 107.pers.3 102. thous.1 103.1 106.016 5.02.pers.5 104.individual Gross capital formation .3 107.824 1.import expenditure m EUR m EUR m EUR thous.pers.SAD MoE forecast A .preliminary data 3.62 108.730 984 5.300 155.52. to CSO Trade balance .605 1.individual farmers Unemployment rate (as at the end of a period) Foreign trade acc.400 3.301 13.

516 1.8 0.0 2.0 3.8 5.1 -12.5 13.7 71.9 17.474 9.0 3.544 1.1 -1.1 -0. thous. lower row according to PKD 2004).2 10.747 11.2 -4.1 3.889 6.400 1.7 -15.2 16.a.4 53.057 1.0 2.1 2007 6.2 14.7 5.11 * change of statistical classification of economic activities (upper row according to PKD 2007.6 -7.5 3.9 0.773 17.4 12.7 2.2 3.2 2005 3.6 2.4 18.102 2.7 59.4 15.Gross Domestic Product (percentage change) Individual consumption (percentage change) Gross fixed capital formation (percentage change) Industry output (percentage change) Construction and assembly output (percentage change) Inflation (annual average) Inflation (XII/XII) Employed persons Average employment in enterprise sector Registered unemployed persons Unemployment rate Average gross nominal wage Average gross real wage Average gross nominal wage in enterprise sector Average gross real wage in enterprise sector Average real retirement pay and pension from non-agricultural social security system Balance of external trade turnover (acc.8 3.6 4. % PLN % PLN % % bn EUR bn EUR % bn EUR % 1995 7.203 1.5 2.9 691 2. to CSO) Unit % % % %* %* % % m.325 1.3 4.8 12.3 1.8 -14.138 3.11 8.0 5.2 2004 5.7 12.9 2.71 16.185 3.7 5.8 12.6 2.9 11.4 19.217 18.8 5.7 4.7 0.9 5.942 6.2 58.738 2.1 8.673 5.4 3.4 3.6 11.1 4.9 5.3 4.3 0.8 120.1 -26.327 1.5 9. 5.1 13.2 116.3 5.176 20.9 0.0 43.4 5.0 4.5 2.1 100.7 6.225 1.361 1.2 13.9 87.4 19.1 0.8 24. data concerns entities employing more than 9 persons 1.1 1.1 4.4 2.8 15.773 2.000 19.1 142.0 3.342 2.4 2.71 120.3 98.912 3.6 9.5 -24.893 12.31 3.629 14.51 24.0 2.3 -9.115 17.9 56.7 12.1 -0.309 14.6 -6.7 25.146 1.7 34. pers.2 -0.4 12.7 4.1 - 2001 1.preliminary data .2 2.6 -15.476 4.11 7.1 6.4 12.7 1.3 -9.9 0.6 n.6 4.8 47. to CSO) Exports rate (acc.31 4.7 1.81 134.915 2.6 2.724 3.392 1.186 6.8 2.4 2008 5. to CSO) Imports rate (acc.8 40. thous.4 -13.1 4.8 754 3.7 2.435 0.273 0.2 16.7 18.0 2.2 150. to CSO) Imports volume (acc.5 2.045 2.4 3.1 3.1 8.0 13.3 14.983 12.605 0.1 1.5 107.4 -6.8 21.8 4.2 -12.8 2.439 0.3 2009 1.5 15.4 2003 3.644 4.7 9.6 -11.2 3.5 4.0 -18.3 13.5 5.8 3.4 3.9 4.2 3.6 3.277 1. pers.6 27.6 2002 1.3 60.373 1.4 10.2 5.684 3.4 18.703 15.0 5.5 4.3 1.0 2.6 13.5 3.6 2011 4.2 0.6 4. pers.81 22.3 -2.5 2.0 1.4 9.3 -9.6 14.5 6.8 1.6 101.5 9.5 2.098 0.5 4.0 14.7 17.312 2.6 12.6 71.9 3.6 12.4 135.5 3.2 11.894 1.1 2.2 - 2000 4.3 -18.5 4.7 4.5 8.1 5.0 3.3 3.955 12.7 6.8 2006 6.5 2.2 6.9 23.5 2.8 0.6 81. to CSO) Exports volume (acc.2 -15.5 2010 3.4 3.

Prepared in Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting Unit in Strategy and Analyses Department Tomasz Chałupa Marta Ostrowska Marcin Zelman Accepted by Aneta Piątkowska Director of Department .