STRATEGIC THINKING CONSTRUCTS

Dr Colin Benjamin OAM 2012

INTRODUCTION

The work shop is designed to provide clarit a!o"t the lang"age o# social incl"sion and social polic #orm"lation #or practitioners seeking to e##icientl $ e##ectivel and e##"lgentl appl processes o# strategic thinking to achieve environmental changes% This set o# strategic thinking constr"cts provides a plat#orm #or the design and constr"ction o# innovative$ creative and entreprene"rial approaches to social polic o!jectives incl"ding social development$ social incl"sion$ social j"stice and social responsi!ilities%

CONTENTS

&20o Thinking and 'econstr"cting 'ealities

O"r (trategic Thinking )ramework

*re#erred and Desired O"tcomes

T"r!"lence in the +nvironment

Bridging the ,aps

Managing Change and Constr"cting (ocial *olicies

The -ang"age o# (ocial .ncl"sion

STRATEGIC THINKING CONSTRUCTS

The Crisis Response Lab provides a 360degree context that seeks to position Greenpeace to respond to crises, pursuing an experimental approach to innovative activities in unfamiliar circumstances !t "ill experiment "ith and get read# to drive $non%linear change & 'ur (trategic Thinking )orkshop seeks to provide a *+0degree level of consciousness that explores and enlivens the full double%hemisphere capacit# of our minds to think be#ond the possible to reconstruct preferred and desired futures

720O THINKING
,r (imon Latham, in The Joy of Sin, musters evidence from ps#cholog# experiments b# researchers "orld"ide to argue that the seven deadl# sins -lust, glutton#, greed, sloth, "rath, env# and pride. are not necessaril# bad (imon sa#s //0nder certain circumstances these things can bring about a range of benefits, including making one happier, smarter, more creative and increasing pro%social behaviour / 1d"ard ,e 2ono sa#s $Creativit# involves breaking out of established patterns in order to look at things in a different "a#& 1d"ard also points out that &an expert is someone "ho has succeeded in making decisions and 3udgements simpler through kno"ing "hat to pa# attention to and "hat to ignore & 1xpanding our sphere of influence on behalf of an inarticulate planet re4uires ever#one to learn ho" to generate better outcomes 5lbert 1instein sa#s $)e cannot solve our problems "ith the same thinking "e used "hen "e created them& 5lbert also said $no problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it & 'ur problem is to learn ho" to think globall#, transcend trends and "alk back"ards from preferred and desired futures To do this "e need to break out of the circle of certaint# and generate a bubble of hope that the present can be set free to soar

RECONSTRUCTING REALITIES
)hen "e attempt to consider the unimaginable changes that can occur in the period after a crisis "e are extrapolating a future that modifies our past This is inherentl# an extension of linear thinking into post%hoc rationalisation of the difficulties that "ere experienced in gaining support for change before the accident of histor# To escape the inherent limitations of uncertaint# and the impossibilit# of kno"ing "hat has #et to be made certain "e need to focus upon the process of in4uir#, communication, decision making Learning to be in the best position to take informed action establishes the ph#sical, mental and moral dimensions of strategic thinking capacit# 'ur starting point is the ageless thinking of (un T6u -(un 7i8 The Art of War. "ho stated $The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim 5daptation means not clinging to fixed methods, but changing appropriatel# according to events, acting as is suitable This re4uires a four dimensional perspective that emphasi6es the need to full# understand the external environment in "hich #ou9and #our adversaries9operate and the changing temporal context in "hich decisions are made This anal#sis formed the core of the

strategic thinking approach of 5merican 5irforce Colonel :ohn 2o#d and his concept of the '%'%,%5 loop 2o#d;s concept of destruction and creation builds up a four%step prescription to guide the prosecution of strategic operations to s"ift, ultimate victor# 2o#d called this prescription the '%'%,%5 loop 5nd in the same "a# that (un T6u/s principles are applicable to business operations, so too is 2o#d/s '%'%,%5 loop <oreover, the '% '%,%5 loop provides highl# focused guidance for effectivel# appl#ing (un T6u;s 5rt of )ar principles cited above $'%'%,%5& is an acron#m that stands for 'bserve, 'rient, ,ecide, and 5ct These are se4uential activities that guide leaders to effective decisions The act step that culminates this process ultimatel# produces changes in the environment that merit a ne", subse4uent round of observations, follo"ed b# a second c#cle of orientation, decision, and action 2o#d suggested that individuals or groups that could c#cle through these four steps faster than their adversaries had a tactical advantage To the extent that the# could execute the c#cle t"o or more times faster than their opponents could complete one, the# "ould actuall# increase the opposition/s confusion about the competitive situation to such a degree that the opponent/s efforts might totall# collapse O!serve 'bservation, the first step in the '%'%,%5 loop, is a search for information The information that should be sought is, first and foremost, the nature of unfolding circumstances%the tactical situation 'nl# slightl# less urgent is "hat 2o#d called $outside information & This could include the environment= the behaviour and tendencies of oneself and one/s opponents= the ph#sical, mental, and moral situation= and potential allies and other opponents > !t must be emphasi6ed that this is not a passive step%it re4uires a concerted, active effort to seek out all the information possible, b# "hatever means available Orient 'rient is the $big '& in the '%'%,%5 loop, as #ou can see from the complexit# of that part of the illustration above ?otice that there are three arro"s leading out of the orient block, but onl# one leading in, reinforcing the notion that our orientation to the "orld shapes the decisions "e make, the actions "e take, and "hat "e choose to observe%"hat "e look for%in the "orld around us To the extent that a tactician or strategist is able to s#nthesi6e a more accurate picture of realit# than his or her opponent, the 4ualit# of decisions and the effectiveness of actions improve, sometimes dramaticall# To the extent that the tactician@strategist can den# that accurate picture to the adversar#, the 4ualit# of the opponent/s decisions and the effectiveness of his actions deteriorate 2o#d referred to this anal#sis%and% s#nthesis process as $man#%sided, implicit cross%referencing & The faster "e can orient ourselves, the greater the congruence "ith ob3ective realit# that "e can make our orientation, the better and more effective our observations, decisions, and actions "ill be

Decide !n concept, this is an explicit step, meaning a discrete, conscious activit# follo"ing hard on orientation Ao"ever, 2o#d also reali6ed that intuitive understanding of the situation and one/s o"n capabilities -the fingerspit6engefuhl discussed in our first installment. makes the decision step implicit, rather than explicit This is a highl# desirable situation, because it speeds the c#cle time of the '%'%,%5 loop 5s earl# as the B*th centur#, the 4uintessential samurai, <usashi, emphasi6ed the need to practice incessantl# until this fingerspit6engefuhl -not <usashi/s "ord, obviousl#C. made the s"ord an extension of the "arrior/s arm and action instinctive, "ithout having to think about it !n other "ords, implicit decision and action Act The act step is largel# self%evident 5ction is the "hole reason for going through the '%'%, steps in the first place 2ut it/s crucial to keep in mind that the ver# action "e attempt to execute "ill, itself, influence the environment in "hich "e act The environment "ill change, possibl# onl# slightl#, but more likel# dramaticall# This change in the $pla#ing field& renders our orientation, or "orldvie", invalid to some degree8 it introduces a mismatch bet"een realit# and our perception of it The 4uicker "e reali6e that this mismatch is developing, the sooner "e can ad3ust our orientation to more closel# approximate the ne" realit# and act again 5nd this is the c#clic nature of the '%
(11 Operationalizing Sun Tzu: The O-O-D-A Loop - Goal Systems ... www.goalsys.com/.../documents/Part-4-OperationalizingSun-Tzu.pdf

2o#d sees grand strateg# as a 4uest to isolate #our enem#/s -a nation%state or a global terrorist net"ork. thinking processes from connections to the external@reference environment This process of isolation is essentiall# the imposition of insanit# on a group b# deconstructing their rules of engagement and reconstructing their realities The d#namic of 2o#d/s grand strateg# is to isolate the enem# across three essential vectors -ph#sical, mental, and moral., "hile at the same time improving our connectivit# across those same vectors 2o#d sa#s that

*h sical isolation is accomplished b# severing communications both to the outside "orld -ie allies. and internal audiences -ie bet"een branches of command and bet"een the command organisation and its supporters. Mental isolation is done through the introduction of ambiguous information, novel situations, and b# operating at a tempo an enem# cannot keep up "ith Moral isolation is achieved "hen an enem# improves its "ell being at the expense of others -allies. or violates rules of behaviour the# profess to uphold -standards of conduct. <oral rules are a ver# important reference point in times of uncertaint#
(++ Boyd's OODA Loop - March 12, 2006 www.au.af.mil/au/awc/.../boyd/osinga_boydconf07_copyright2007.p..

OUR STRATEGIC THINKING FRAMEWORK )e attempt to reframe and reformulate strategic thinking capacit# as an integrative ph#sical, mental and moral process that builds upon a basic direction to"ards seeking one of four patterns of thought The first t"o are most commonl# applied to strategic planning D inductive thinking and deductive thinking associated "ith task and transactional goals The latter t"o are associated "ith transductive thinking and abductive thinking associated "ith change and transformational goals .nd"ctive !nductive reasoning is the process of coming up "ith a conclusion based on a series of events that repeat 5n example "ould be to push a light s"itch up turns on the light and pushing it do"n turns the light off !f #ou do this over and over, sa# B000 times, #ou could conclude that the light goes on "hen the s"itch is up and it is off "hen the s"itch is do"n 0nfortunatel#, the conclusion ma# not al"a#s be true because other circumstances ma# cause the light to not go on "hen the s"itch is up The light ma# burn out, the electricit# goes off, etc. Ded"ctive ,eductive reasoning is the process of coming up "ith a conclusion based on facts that have alread# been sho"n to be true Aence, #our conclusion "ill al"a#s be true The facts that can be used to prove #our conclusion deductivel# ma# come from accepted definitions, postulates or axioms, or previousl# proved theorems !f #ou are taking geometr#, proofs re4uires deductive reasoning Therefore, it is imperative that #ou kno" #our definitions, postulates and theorems Transd"ctive Transductive reasoning builds upon experienced prior learningm analogies and metaphors to establish ne" patterns of operation dra"ing upon conclusions about a ne" situation that resembles or has common core elements that offer preferred and desired outcomes !n the case of machine learning this transductive process dra"s conclusions about ne" data from previous data through transposition or conversion of elements and "ithout constructing a model or a series of prior decision rules A!d"ctive 5bductive reasoning is a form of logical inference that goes from data description of something to a h#pothesis that accounts for the reliable data and seeks to explain relevant evidence The term "as first introduced b# the 5merican philosopher Charles (anders Eeirce -BF3GDBGBH. as IguessingI Eeirce argues that good abductive reasoning from to ! involves not simpl# a determination that, e g , ! is sufficient for , but also that ! is among the most economical explanations for (implification and econom# are "hat call for the /leap/ of abduction.

PREFERRED AND DESIRED OUTCOMES George Jell# introduces a futures orientation to ever#da# decision%making % Krom his point of vie" ever#one is involved in seeking to predict and control the flo" of events in "hich the# are involved 1ach person has expectations, anticipations, h#potheses to test and experiments to conduct Jell# came to see the person as a scientist "ho through a series of successive approximations seeks to test his constructions in a piecemeal fashion in order to establish their predictive efficienc# Krom this point of vie", the c#cle of experimentation begins "ith an action "hich is seen as a probe into realit# designed to test the validit# of the personal h#pothesis or construct "hich the person has previousl# placed upon the "orld, and "ith "hich he is no" experimenting The c#cle of experimentation therefore ends "ith an experimental outcome or result that "ill serve to validate or invalidate the anticipations "hich the action%probe "as designed to test Auman behaviour is not seen as a problem "hich needs to be controlled, but rather is construed as our main instrument of in4uir# 0nder this rubric, strategic thinking is a search for one of four fundamental ob3ectives8 More o# the (ame /MO(0 The first strategic intent is to maintain a high level of control over outcomes through consistenc# and applications of prior learning to repeat previousl# successful patterns This is a classic application of linear thinking that assumes that the environment is constant and that efficient application of kno"n%kno"ns offers the best path to success More and Better /M1B0 The second form of strategic intent seeks to modif# previous best practice b# improving elements that have become predictable or changing approaches that offer prospects of delivering more effective applications of kno"ledge, skills and aptitudes to tackle the kno"n%unkno"ns in changing environments (omething Di##erent /(D2 The third form of strategic intent introduces different combinations of prior practice to address unkno"n%kno"n experiences and events b# attempting to alter the extent of predictable responses This re4uires an effulgent combination of flexibilit#, adaptiveness and responsiveness to the actions of alternative decision%makers to seek to gain a competitive advantage through deliver# of unexpected interventions in the environment (omething 3er Di##erent /(3D0 The final form of strategic intent re4uires active experimentation "ith disruptive innovative, creative and entrepreneurial constructs that change expectations and take steps that break "ith traditions and prior expectations to achieve outstanding results This involves a search for differences and altered perceptions of the art of the possible

TURBULENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENT

The choice amongst these alternative path"a#s is shaped b# the strength of opposing forces and the level of turbulence in the environment in "hich decisions are being made !gor 5nsoff "rote his strategic management s#stems around the idea of economic%turbulence, and the need for alignment bet"een organisational capabilities and the level of economic%turbulence faced b# the business The driver -of change. is environmental turbulence D a uni4ue feature of 5nsoff;s thinking, and defined in terms of of environment%complexit#, its speed of change relative to possible speed of -organisational. response, and the futures visabilit# and predictabilit# There are five levels of turbulence that determine re4uirements for strategic thinking 'epetitive 5t Level 'ne Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are stable and based on precedents 'rganisational responses are stabilit# seeking and re3ect change The strategic response is generall# to enhance surveillance The usual capabilit# is audit and situational anal#ses predicated on repetition of prior patterns of behaviour +4panding 5t Level T"o Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are reactive and based on experience 'rganisational responses are efficienc# seeking and adapt to change The strategic response is generall# to diversif# risks The usual capabilit# is increased flexibilit# predicated on forecasts of slo" incremental environmental changes Changing 5t Level Three Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are anticipator# and based on extrapolation 'rganisational responses are market driven and seek familiar change The strategic response is generall# to create a response The usual capabilit# is to ac4uire resources and technolog# predicated on forecasts of rapid incremental environmental changes Discontin"o"s 5t Level Kour Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are entrepreneurial and based on opportunit# 'rganisational responses are environment driven and seek related change The strategic response is generall# to launch a high risk response The usual capabilit# is to extend minimum capabilit# and expand rapidl# predicated on discontinuous but predictable environmental changes ("rprise#"l 5t Level Kive Turbulence, strategic responses to environmental changes are novel, creative and based on creativit# 'rganisational responses are environment creating and seek novel change The strategic response is generall# to launch a catch%up response The usual capabilit# is defensive reconstruction and crash capabilit# expansion based on discontinuous and partiall# predictable environmental changes

BRIDGING THE GAPS

,eveloping a polic# narrative that frames decisions about future courses of action by finding and developing unique opportunities to generate preferred and desired futures relies upon a capacity to communicate required changes in emerging and/ or competitive environments. The capacity to define, communicate and implement steps to bridge the gaps between current and preferred future states develops a distinctive pathway to progress. 3ision 5 vision statement defines the rationale for action in terms of a strategic intent to establish "hat is the preferred and desired future for those engaged in a venture or enterprise and clarif# the emerging external situation that is being generated Mission 5 mission statement sets out purposes and primar# commitments !ts prime function is internal D to define the ke# measure or measures of the organi6ation/s success D and its prime audience is the leadership team and stakeholders "ho are committed to the vision ,oals The statement of goals for an organisation or a campaign set out the targets and results that are sought from the application of relationships, resources, information, decision making and evaluation efforts directed to"ards achievement of actionable purposes O!jectives The statement of ob3ectives specif# succinct, time limited and defined measures of progress that provide decision makers "ith performance benchmarks and tangible outcomes Activities 5 statement of activities is a list or menu of specific deeds, actions, functions, or spheres of action that must be undertaken to achieve results that are sought for each ob3ective in order to get preferred and desired outcomes Tasks 1ach task sets out a 3ob that must be done as part of application of effort to reach an ob3ective or to perform a dut# that has a short%term responsibilit# "ithin a "orks program 'oles 5 register of roles sets out the part or position that individuals or units of an organisation accept as determining anticipated and expected behaviours re4uired to accomplish tasks 'esponsi!ilities Roles suppl# the authorit# to maintain relationships bet"een persons or units assigned to carr# out tasks, allocate resources to facilitate task achievement, communicate re4uired information about the relationship "ith the vision, mission, goals and ob3ectives and take decisions re4uired to ensure programme or pro3ect completion

"ithin specified times

MANAGING AND EMPOWERING CHANGE

Change management entails thoughtful planning and sensitive implementation, and above all, consultation "ith, and involvement of, the people affected b# the changes 5chieving preferred and desired changes in patterns of behaviour and performance re4uires people to understand ho" social policies "ill be different The# need to appreciate and ideall# accept "hat "ill be the impact on their patterns of behaviour The ke#s to successful management of change rel# upon the empo"erment of those that support the need for change and the active engagement of those that are #et to share the vision, mission, goals and ob3ectives of those committed to making those changes Connie 2enn argued that people need po"er over four crucial areas in their lives8 resources, information, decision%making and relationships To empo"er people to make significant change it is also vital to change current expectations and build the esteem of those that are re4uired to modif# their prior patterns of behaviour *ower over 'elationships /5*60 The first step in managing change is to identif# the enduring patterns of relationships and net"orks of friends and associates that are linked to current beliefs and behaviours This establishes the social infrastructure re4uired to undertake the processes of in4uir#, communication, deciding and implementing path"a#s from "here people are no" to "here the# need to be if change is to be adopted and consolidated *ower over 'eso"rces /5'60 The next step to"ards effective management of change re4uires consideration of costs and benefits of changes to o"nership and distribution of resources This clarifies emotional and financial resources that need to be committed to restructured operations and investments in gro"th to fund and enable capital infrastructure that underpins the development of ne" enterprise and strategic operations *ower over .n#ormation /5.60 The intervening and continuing step to"ards viable and sustainable change relies upon access to data, kno"ledge, understanding, insight and effective communication to ensure current and constructive changes are maintained This builds the channels of access to media and momentum for challenging dimensions for continuing change *ower over Decision7making /5D60 The next step is to construct a forum for for"ard observation, orientation, decision% making and action that shapes command and control over directions for choice and sets out the nature and authorit# of re4uired change This determines the selection of a
course of action among several alternative scenarios leading to a finite policy, practice or direction for change.

*ower over +4pectations and +steem /5+60 The final step is to manage expectations about the consolidation and institutionalisation of the changes that are introduced and ensure the good"ill and esteem of those that stand to benefit from the adoption of ne" directions and patterns of authorit#

THE LANGUAGE OF SOCIAL INCLUSION

Taking steps be#ond the beaten path"a# re4uires earl# attention to the needs, "ants, hopes and expectations of those that support re4uired changes as much as establishing a deep and meaningful appreciation of the perspectives that still need to come on board To build this platform of understanding it is essential to disaggregate the audiences that must become engaged in the processes of change This means that the case for change must address the needs of different segments of the communities of interest !t is vitall# important to keep in mind a number of elements8 B .denti#ia!ilit 7 a clear label for the group or section of the communit# + ("!stantia!ilit D a realistic scale to 3ustif# engaging that communit# 3 Accessa!ilit % ease of access to address the various communities of interest

H 'esponsiveness D proportion of feedfor"ard and feedback capacit# of the audiences L (ta!ilit D continuit# and time scales for capacit# to gain needed support for change 6 Actiona!ilit D capacit# to encourage and engage supporters in consolidating changes To this end it is valuable to understand the similarities bet"een different segments of the communit# that are likel# to endorse the preferred and desired changes as "ell as the differences that make a difference bet"een those "ho need to be encouraged to change their minds and become earl# adopters of the proposed changes The most fundamental orientation is that of <aslo";s Aierarch# of ?eeds from ph siological and sa#et needs$ love and !elonging$ to esteem and sel#7act"alisation% 'ther ke# characteristics that must be monitored in the mapping of support and opposition to change include Geert Aofstede;s analses of $Culture;s Conse4uences8 1. Individ !"i#$ V# C%""&'(ivi#$ ) *I+ %,i&n(!(i%n v&,# # +WE+ %,i&n(!(i%n 2. P%-&, Di#(!n'& !nd A (.%,i(/ ) *US+ %,i&n(!(i%n v&,# # *THEM+ %,i&n(!(i%n 0. Un'&,(!in(/ A''&1(!n'&2Av%id!n'& ) RISK (!3in4 v&,# # RISK !v%idin4 5&.!vi% , 6. T&$1%,!" S&n#i(ivi(/ ) PAST7 PRESENT %, FUTURES %,i&n(!(i%n#

(11 C'L'0RGR!, E')1R E'!?T ER1(1?T5T!'? 5TT5CA1,

REFERENCES The "ind #f The Strategist$ The 5rt of :apanese 2usiness Jenichi 'hmae -BGLG. %hanging the &ules of the 'ame8 (uccessful latecomers, To#ota in 1urope Erofessor Ja6uo !chi3o and George RMdler, Research 5ssociate -?ovember, +006.