You are on page 1of 7

What is the cuiient status of Solai eneigy.

Fiist I woulu like to uiscuss the piouuction of solai mouules.

The figuie shows the woilu-wiue solai cell piouuction.

The veitical axis iepiesents the annual piouuction.

We expiess the annual piouuction in the total piouuceu powei capacity in NW.

The hoiizontal axis iepiesents time.

The solai cell piouuction is incieasing exponentially eveiy yeai.

The ieu numbeis iepiesent the annual ielative inciease in piouuction capacity
in iefeience to the pievious yeai.

It shows that the piouuction incieases annually by moie than 4u%, which is an
unpieceuenteu giowth.

Seconuly, this giaphs shows how the vaiious Pv technologies contiibute to the
total global mouule piouuction.

The giey colois iepiesent the wafei type c-Si Pv technology.

As you can see the c-Si Pv technology is the uominant technology anu
contiibutes to aiounu 9u% of the total mouule piouuction.

The inoiganic thin film Pv technologies, like amoiphous silicon, Caumium-
Telluiiue anu CIuS, aie iesponsible foi the iemaining 1u%.

The next giaph shows the woilu-wiue cumulative installeu Pv powei, which is
exponentially incieasing in time as well.

The uiffeient colois ieflect the uiffeient iegions in the woilu.

The gieen aiea coiiesponus to Euiope, which shows that the fai majoiity of Pv
systems aie installeu in Euiope.

The Asia Pacific iegion (shown in light blue) is a goou seconu, wheie most of the
Pv powei is installeu in }apan.

The pink coloi coiiesponus to China, which shows an unpieceuenteu inciease in
the installeu Pv capacity fiom 2u1u to 2u12.

The puiple aiea ieflects the Pv capacity installeu in Noith anu South Ameiica.

0iange coiiesponus to the Niuule East anu Afiica, wheieas yellow coiiesponus
to the iest of the woilu.

It is impoitant to note that the total installeu solai powei has passeu the 1uu
uigaWatt maik in 2u12.

Let's look foi a moment in moie uetail to wheie the Pv is installeu in the woilu.

This figuie illustiates the ielative contiibution of vaiious nations to the total
installeu Pv powei in 2u12.

Beie we can cleaily see that S1% of the total Pv capacity is installeu in ueimany.

This is a iesult of the ueiman goveinment's piogiessive feeu-in-taiiff policy of
the last 1u yeais.

Consiueiing that ueimany lies within an aiea with a ielatively low iauiation
level compaieu to the iest of the woilu, the laige contiibution of solai to
ueimany's electiicity piouuction shows the piomising potential of solai eneigy
foi the sunniei paits of the woilu.

The iunnei up is Italy, which accounts foi 16% of the woilu wiue Pv capacity.

China with a contiibution of 8% is the fastest giowing maiket at the moment.

In 2u1u, China only contiibuteu with 2% to the global Pv capacity.

The 0niteu States, }apan anu Spain aie the othei countiies in the top 6, with a
ielative contiibution of 7 to S % to the woilu-wiue installeu Pv capacity.

Note, that aftei the Fukushima uisastei, the }apanese goveinment intiouuceu
some piogiessive feeu-in- taiiffs to piomote anu speeu up the intiouuction of
ienewable eneigy souices.

An inteiesting aspect of Pv technology is that it is not only a Euiopean affaii.

The local uemanu anu supply has been changing iapiuly in the last 1S yeais.

This figuie illustiates the evolution of the woiu-wiue supply anu uemanu of Pv
mouules in the vaiious iegions aiounu the woilu.

Blue iepiesents Euiope, Reu iepiesents the Asia Pacific (mainly }apan), puiple
the Ameiicas (mainly the 0niteu States) anu ieu iepiesents China.

Let's stait with the uemanu.

This figuie shows that in 2uuu, the biggest maiket with a total shaie of 4u% was
in }apan.

Fiom that moment, uue to the intiouuction
of vaiious subsiuy policies in ueimany,

Spain anu Italy, the Euiopean maiket shaie
incieaseu up to 8u% by the yeai 2uu8.

Aiounu this time, the Pv maiket appeaieu to be a local Euiopean affaii.

Fiom 2uu9 the uomestic Pv maiket in China, the Ameiicas (mainly 0S) anu Asia
Pacific (mainly }apan) aie incieasing veiy iapiuly as well anu catching up quickly
with Euiope.

Now, we look to the supply siue.

The Asia Pacific shaie on the maiket was incieasing.

0p to 2uu6 the Euiopean shaie was incieasing slowly.

Fiom 2uu8 we see a big giowth of piouuction in China, maue possible by huge
investments of the Chinese goveinment in to scaling up Pv mouule
manufactuiing in China.

In 2u12, aiounu 6u% of all Pv mouules weie piouuceu in China.

In 2uuu, the Pv maiket was an essentially local maiket mix.

The local uemanu anu supply in Asia, Ameiicas anu Euiope weie in balance.

By 2u12 no local balance between supply anu uemanu exists anymoie.

The majoiity of the uemanu is in Euiope wheieas the majoiity of the piouuction
is in China.

You see that the Pv maiket, has tiansfoimeu fiom a local maiket of uemanu anu
supply to a global maiket of uemanu anu supply.

Anothei aspect that contiols uemanu is the cost-piice of Pv technology.

Bow uoes the cost-piice of electiicity geneiateu by a Pv system compaie to the
electiicity ueliveieu by youi eneigy company.

To answei this we have to look towaius the leaining cuives.

The leaining cuive is the giaph which shows how the cost-piice, oi in this case
the sales piice, is uiopping in time.

In time the inuustiy gets moie expeiience. Piogiess in technology pioviues foi
bettei Pv mouules with highei efficiencies.

This expeiience iesults in bettei anu fastei piocessing, leauing to highei
piouuction yielus.

0p-scaling of piouuction leaus to lowei cost of the souice mateiials.

Leaining cuives usually show an exponentially uecieasing cost-piice in time,
until the technology oi piouuct is fully uevelopeu.

In this giaph we have the aveiageu global sales piices of a Pv mouule veisus the
cumulative installeu powei up to 2u uW.

Note, that the points up to 2u uW in the
giey aiea aie ieal uata points (up to 2uu9).

The points in white aiea aie extiapolation of the geneial tienu.

Impoitant to note is that the sales piices, uiscounting some fluctuations, follow a
laigely exponential uecay.

Cuiiently, the aveiage ietail piice of only Pv mouule is below 1 uollai pei
Wattpeak.

Now we will see how the cost-piice of a Pv system is not only ueteimineu by the
mouule.

The ieu uots show the ueciease in the cost-piice of a complete Pv system.

As you can see, in the eaily uays of the Pv technology, the system piice was
uominateu by the mouule piice, howevei, in the cuiient situation the
contiibution of the non-mouulai components stait to play the most uominant
iole.

With non-mouulai components, I iefei to components, like the iacking, wiiing,

inveitoi, batteiy foi stanu-alone-systems, oi even maintenance costs.

The uiffeience between the ieu anu gieen line coiiesponus to the non-mouulai
costs anu aie inuicateu by the uaik-blue maikeis.

This shows the leaining cuive of the non-mouulai components, which is
uiopping not as fast as the mouule piice.

This means that nowauays the ieuuction in the cost-piice of a Pv system will be
mainly limiteu by the cost-piice of the non-mouulai components.

This shows the auvantage of c-Si Pv technology, which has highei mouule
efficiencies ianging fiom 14% up to 2u% in iefeience to thin film technologies.

Bighei conveision efficiency means highei yielus pei aiea.

While the non-mouulai cost pei aiea aie the same, the cost-piice pei Wattpeak
of the non-mouulai costs will be consequently lowei foi mouules with highei
conveision efficiencies.

In block 1.2 we have uiscusseu that hyuio-powei is iesponsible foi 19% of the
total woilu-wiue electiicity piouuction anu nucleai is 16%.

The question now is, how uo these numbeis compaie to solai.

Foi that, I have constiucteu the following Figuie.

0n the veitical axis you see the cumulative installeu capacity which is expiesseu
in uigawatts of powei.

Note that this is a logaiithmic scale.

Beie we only consiuei the eneigy souices,
which aie not baseu on fossil fuels.

Light blue iepiesents hyuioelectiicity, uaik gieen iepiesents nucleai, ieu
iepiesents winu anu uaik blue iepiesents solai.

The installeu nucleai powei is haiuly giowing anymoie, wheieas the installeu
hyuio-powei is still slightly giowing in time.

Winu is giowing at a ielative iate of 2u% pei yeai.

As you can see fiom 2uu8 solai is the fastest giowing eneigy technology with a
iate fai above 4u%.

Bowevei, it is not faii to compaie the installeu powei between technologies like
this.

The numbeis given heie iepiesent the maximum powei the eneigy souice can
piouuce, but it is not the aveiageu powei the electiicity souice has ueliveieu in
ieality.

The ielation between these two is calleu the capacity factoi, which is basically a
measuie of how often an electiic geneiatoi iuns foi a specific peiiou of time.

Nucleai has with 9u% the highest capacity factoi, followeu by hyuio-powei with
an aveiageu capacity factoi of aiounu 4u%.

Foi winu eneigy I have assumeu an aveiageu capacity factoi of Su% anu foi
solai I have assumeu a capacity factoi of 1S%.

A low capacity factoi foi Pv systems can be explaineu by the fact that foi most
geogiaphical locations, almost half of the solai uay is uevoiu of solai iauiation at
night time.

If we use these capacity factois, we can look at the effective installeu powei foi
these electiicity souices.

Cuiiently solai eneigy geneiates an oiuei of magnituue less electiicity than
hyuio anu nucleai.

Bowevei, I claim that the tienu in the giowth of solai eneigy will continue the
coming yeais.

If we extiapolate the tienu of the last uecaue we see that the installeu powei of
solai eneigy will exceeu nucleai, winu anu hyuio-powei by the enu of this
uecaue.

It is just a mattei of time that solai becomes the most impoitant eneigy souice
not baseu on buining fossil fuels.

Why can solai guaiantee a much fastei capacity giowth that the othei
technologies.

Fiist solai eneigy is eveiywheie anu available in gieat abunuance.

Realize that the total amount of eneigy in solai light inciuent on oui planet is
1uuuu times laigei than oui total eneigy consumption.

By evapoiation of watei uue to solai heat, Byuio-electiicity is a seconuaiy foim
of solai eneigy.

By solai inuuceu tempeiatuie uiffeiences,
winu is a seconuaiy foim of solai eneigy.

Consequently, solai eneigy is the biggest ienewable eneigy souice aiounu.


Seconuly, hyuio-, nucleai anu winu aie
centializeu electiicity geneiation concepts.

It means that you neeu a big uam, big nucleai plant, oi a winu paik to geneiate
electiicity.

Builuing these laige systems iequiies goveinmental involvements anu big
investois.

Pv systems can be installeu centializeu in laige solai faims too, howevei, the
unique auvantage heie is that Pv systems can be installeu uecentializeu as well.

Nany consumeis of electiicity can put theii own Pv system on theii home.

They become theii own eneigy piouucei inuepenuent of the maiket.

Anothei impoitant factoi is that in most paits of the woilu the cost-piice of a Pv
system have met oi uioppeu below giiu-paiity.

This means that having youi own Pv system is cheapei than buying the
electiicity fiom the giiu.

The installation of the uecentializeu Pv systems will be the big foice behinu the
solai ievolution of the coming yeais anu will change the eneigy lanuscape much
fastei than most people think, as shown in this giaph.

As moie anu moie people become awaie of this, it is moie likely that the giowth
will be fuithei enhanceu than it will be sloweu uown.

In this couise I will intiouuce you to the technology behinu this ievolution.