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Monday, December 30, 2013

Today 5,899.20 3,267.45 Point Change + 22.54 + 26.82 % Change 0.38 % p 0.83 % p

ASPI S&P SL 20 Index YTD Performance ASPI S&P SL 20 Index
Level 23, East Tower, World Trade Centre, Colombo 01 Tel: +94 11 727 7000, Fax: +94 11 727 7099 Email: research@equity.softlogic.lk

4.5% 5.9% 515.3 826.4 12.3 37.4 2,454.2 177.0 232.6 55.6 22.7

Today's Turnover (LKR mn) Annual Average Daily Turnover (LKR mn) Volume (mn) Annual Average Daily Volume (mn) Market Capitalization (LKR bn) Net Foreign Inflow / (Outflow) [LKR mn] - Foreign Buying (LKR mn) - Foreign Selling (LKR mn) YTD Net Foreign Inflow / (Outflow) [LKR bn]

Big caps push index into green...

CSE Diary for 30.12.2013
Gains during 1st hour of trading: The positive sentiment continued among investors for the 3rd consecutive day as the ASPI gained 23 points backed by gains in Ceylon Tobacco and John Keells Holdings. The benchmark index jumped during the 1st hour of trading amidst the gains in the big caps and was mostly flat during the rest of the day. A similar movement was observed in the S&P SL20 index as well which recorded a gain of 26 points outperforming the ASPI. Four crossings for the day: John Keells Holdings recorded 2 crossings accounting for 355k shares dealt at LKR229.0. High level of interest in the counter was observed in on-board trading as well with 517k shares changing hands. Strong buying interest resulted in the counter gaining 2.4% to close at LKR230.5. A crossing each was registered in Commercial Bank and Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings with the former witnessing a 541k share block crossed off at LKR65.0 while the latter recorded a 188k share

block at LKR122.0. Interest in JKH Warrants and banking counters: Both John Keells Holdings Warrants W0022 and W0023 saw considerable interest similar to its share. The former saw 664k shares changing hands during day between prices LKR74.7 and LKR79.5 as the counter closed the day with a 6.9% gain at LKR79.3. The latter registered a 52-week high price of LKR95.2, finally closing at LKR94.9 with a gain of 94.9. Interest was noted in the banking sector counters; Commercial Bank, Hatton National Bank and Nations Trust Bank with price changes of 1.0%, 0.0% and 0.8%. Low Retail activity: Retail interest in the market was low with some interest being noted in Expo Lanka Holdings and Textured Jersey.

Statistical Look Up
Treasury Bill (%) 3 months 6 months 12 months AWPLR Excess Liquidity (LKR 'bn) as at 27.12.2013 Inflation (%) Nov-13 YoY Change Annual Avg Week ending 27.12.2013 7.54 7.85 8.29 9.88 -53.17 5.6 7.3

5950 5900 5850 5800

Index

5750
5700 5650

ASPI Turnover LKR ('mn)
3300 3250 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200.0

Volume ('mn)

150.0 100.0 50.0

Index

3200 3150

3100

0.0

S&P SL20

Turnover

Volume

Today All Share Price Index S&P SL20 Index Turnover (LKR mn) Turnover (USD mn) Volume (mn shares) Traded Entities Market Capitalization (LKR bn) Foreign Purchases (LKR mn) Foreign Sales (LKR mn) Net Foreign Inflow (LKR mn) Market PER (X) Market PBV (X) Market Dividend Yield SECTOR INDICES Banks, Finance & Insurance Beverage, Food & Tobacco Construction & Engineering Diversified Healthcare Hotels & Travels Land & Property Manufacturing Plantation Telecom 5,899.2 3,267.5 515.3 3.9 12.3 213 2,454.2 232.6 55.6 177.0 15.3 2.0 2.9 Today 12,752.7 20,381.4 2,774.0 1,766.4 702.1 3,181.0 565.1 2,840.8 724.8 156.6

Pre Day 5,876.7 3,240.6 1,333.0 10.2 14.4 230 2,444.9 122.9 109.0 13.9 15.3 2.0 3.0 Pre Day 12,908.8 19,962.4 2,788.2 1,753.5 696.6 3,170.8 562.6 2,850.6 725.0 156.0

Change % 0.38% p 0.83% p -61.35% -61.35% -15.07% -7.39% 0.38% 89.29% -48.98% 1172.31% 0.38% 0.38% -3.33% % Change -1.21% 2.10% -0.51% 0.74% 0.79% 0.32% 0.45% -0.35% -0.03% 0.39% q p q p p p p q q p

Last Week 5,846.4 3,224.2 267.8 2.0 15.0 215 2,432.3 128.8 45.7 83.1 15.0 2.0 3.0 Last Week 12,899.8 19,931.7 2,811.2 1,729.6 698.6 3,169.3 557.5 2,827.2 698.1 155.8

% WoW Change 0.90% 1.34% 92.38% 92.38% -18.22% -0.93% 0.90% 80.56% 21.57% 113.03% 2.48% 0.88% -3.33% % WoW Change -1.14% 2.26% -1.33% 2.13% 0.50% 0.37% 1.36% 0.48% 3.82% 0.52%

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High Index Calibre ≥ USD350 Mn
Company
JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS CEYLON TOBACCO CARSON CUMBERBATCH NESTLE LANKA SRI LANKA TELECOM COMMERCIAL BANK [V] BUKIT DARAH DIALOG AXIATA HNB [V] AITKEN SPENCE DISTILLERIES LOLC CARGILLS DFCC BANK SAMPATH BANK ASIAN HOTELS & PROPERTIES

% of Mkt Cap 9.3% 9.0% 2.8% 4.6% 2.7% 4.0% 2.6% 3.0% 1.9% 1.7% 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2%

Volume 872,515 7,172 95 3,969 78,653 406,204 483 309,241 158,715 110,052 10,651 810 1 1,261 36,705 326

Turnover LKR ('000) 200,028.49 8,442.59 32.69 8,340.81 2,911.17 49,533.29 299.22 2,784.47 22,478.45 10,930.54 2,074.36 57.71 0.15 160.20 6,279.98 21.34

Turnover USD ('000) 1,529.85 64.57 0.25 63.79 22.27 378.84 2.29 21.30 171.92 83.60 15.87 0.44 0.00 1.23 48.03 0.16

Intraday High (LKR) 230.60 1,184.00 345.00 2,150.00 38.50 122.50 620.00 9.10 143.80 103.80 195.00 74.90 150.00 127.90 172.00 65.50

Intraday Low (LKR) 227.10 1,149.00 344.00 2,100.00 36.90 120.50 616.10 9.00 141.50 99.00 190.30 71.20 150.00 126.50 168.90 65.40

Close 230.50 1,180.40 345.00 2,101.10 37.00 122.10 617.80 9.00 143.00 102.00 195.00 71.20 150.00 127.70 171.80 65.40

Price Gainers
Company
SERENDIB ENG.GRP SERENDIB HOTELS EQUITY TWO PLC CAL FINANCE CITRUS WASKADUWA

Price Losers
Today 162.00 29.40 28.50 15.20 7.10 Change + 23.80 + 3.30 + 3.10 + 1.50 + 0.50 % Change Company 17.22% 12.64% 12.20% 10.95% 7.58%
CEYLINCO INS. MERC. SHIPPING BLUE DIAMONDS [X] CITRUS LEISURE [W0019] DUNAMIS CAPITAL

Today 1,105.60 118.20 1.20 1.40 11.20

Change - 234.40 - 21.80 - 0.10 - 0.10 - 0.80

% Change -17.49% -15.57% -7.69% -6.67% -6.67%

Top 05 Performers for the Day
Company
JKH JKH[WARRANTS] COMMERCIAL BANK A.SPEN.HOT.HOLD. HNB

Today 230.50 79.30 122.10 66.40 143.00

Pre Day 225.00 74.20 120.90 67.00 143.00

% Change 2.44% 6.87% 0.99% -0.90% 0.00%

Volume (mn) 0.87 0.66 0.41 0.57 0.16

Contribution to Total T/O 8.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9%

Turnover (LKR) 200,028,491 51,542,843 49,533,287 37,227,029 22,478,448

Most Active
Company
EXPOLANKA JKH JKH[WARRANTS] NAWALOKA A.SPEN.HOT.HOLD.

Today 7.50 230.50 79.30 3.00 66.40

Pre Day 7.50 225.00 74.20 2.90 67.00

% Change 0.00% 2.44% 6.87% 3.45% -0.90%

Volume (mn) 0.94 0.87 0.66 0.64 0.57

Contribution to Total T/O 0.3% 8.2% 2.1% 0.1% 1.5%

Turnover (LKR) 7,077,408 200,028,491 51,542,843 1,932,617 37,227,029

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Currency Board
Local - Indicative Rate against LKR
Currency Australia China EU India Japan UK USA Dollar Yuan Euro Rupee Yen Pound Dollar Indicative Rate 30.12.2013 115.64 21.56 179.75 2.11 1.24 215.43 130.75

CSE Announcements
Dividends
Company 0 0 0 0 0
Company Description

DPS (LKR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Proportion 0 0

XD Date 0 0 0 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00
XR Date

Payment Date 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 00-Jan-00 00-Jan-00
Renunciation

Rights Issues / Scrip Dividend / Sub division / Capitalization
0 0 0 0 0 0 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 1/0/1900

Source: www.cbsl.gov.lk

0

New Listing
Company No New Listings 0 Type of Security Code 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 Board 1/0/1900 1/0/1900 Offer Price 0.00% 0.00%

Key Corporate Diclosures
No Announcements.

Material Dealings by Related Parties of Listed Companies
Company NO MATERIAL DEALINGS. Name 0 0 Relationship 0 0 Transaction 0 0 Quantity 0 0 Price (LKR) 0.00 0.00 Date 0 0

Global Markets
Index AMERICA Dow Jones Industrial Average EUROPE EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR FTSE 100 Index ASIA Nikkei 225
* Time is as at ET

Value 16,478.4 3,104.7 6,743.7 16,291.3

Change -1.5 -6.6 -7.2 112.4

Change % -0.01% q -0.21% q -0.11% q 0.69% p

Time* 16:29 05:40 05:40 01:28

Source: www.bloomberg.com

Commodity Markets
Commodity ENERGY Crude Oil (WTI) AGRICULTURE ICE Cotton #2 CBOT Wheat METALS COMEX Gold COMEX Copper
* Time is as at ET

Units USD/bbl. USd/lb. USd/bu. USD/t oz. USd/lb.

Price 100.24 84.12 606.00 1,203.30 339.00

Change -0.08 0.00 -3.00 -10.70 0.50

Change % -0.08% q 0.00% p -0.49% q -0.88% q 0.15% p

Time* 05:23 05:23 05:46 05:26 05:25

Source: www.bloomberg.com

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TOP STORIES
Local
 Sri Lanka to switch to 92-octane from January 2014 Sri Lanka will start selling petrol with an Octane count of 92 from January 2014 and will discontinue 90-octane fuel, petroleum minister Anura Yapa said. Minister Yapa said state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the second player Lanka IOC will both sell 92-Octane petrol. There will be no change to retail prices. CPC will have to incur a cost of around 80 cents to one rupee per litre to provide 92-Octane petrol, he said. [Source: www.lbo.lk]  Watawala Plantations disengages from national grid for palm oil production In a bid to take the sustainability route in palm oil production, Sunshine Group’s Watawala Plantations has introduced a steam turbine to their production facility, which will take the burden off the national grid. According to Watawala Plantations PLC Palm Oil Mill General Manager, prior to commissioning the turbine last month the company was totally dependent on the CEB to run the mill. This resulted in an expenditure of Rs. 1.5 million per month on electricity consumption. [Source: www.ft.lk]  CHOGM and Budget gives a boost to confidence in economic opportunity Last month we speculated that confidence in economic activity perhaps could improve after the CHOGM in Colombo and the 2014 Budget. It did. The Perceived Economic Opportunity Index finally saw some positive upward movement recording the highest level since December last year; again boosted by the Budget. While respondents continued to state their disappointment in the high cost of living and inability to save, the optimism came from their perception that they had been able to advance in their job or business, and their belief these opportunities would increase. [Source: www.ft.lk]  Disclose or be damned! In a further regulatory directive, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked Directors and CEOs of listed companies to make disclosure of dealings in shares within the T+5 (trade plus five days) time frame from 1 April 2014. The latest directive comes hot on the heels of SEC taking a tougher stand on ensuring minimum public float of listed companies. [Source: www.ft.lk]

Global
 Japan Consumer Prices Seen Rising Five Times as Fast as Wages Japanese employers will fail in the next fiscal year to heed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s goal of wage increases that outpace inflation, highlighting risks that the nation’s recovery will stall, surveys of economists show. Labor cash earnings, the benchmark for wages, will increase 0.6 percent in the year starting April 1, according to the median forecast in a poll of 16 economists by Bloomberg News. Consumer prices will climb five times faster, increasing 3 percent, as Japan raises a sales tax for the first time since 1997, a separate Bloomberg survey shows. [Source: www.bloomberg.com]  Most-Accurate Oil Forecasters See Second Year of Losses Brent crude prices, the benchmark for half the world’s oil, will weaken for a second year in 2014 as U.S. output expands and threats to Middle East and North African supply ease, the most-accurate forecasters said. Prices will average $105 a barrel in 2014, from $108.71 in 2013, according to the median of estimates from the seven analysts who most accurately predicted this year’s level in a survey last December. Brent averaged $111.68 in 2012. [Source: www.bloomberg.com]

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Softlogic Equity Research
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Branches Softlogic Equity Sales
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+94 11 7277053, +94 77 7348018 Chandima Kariyawasam chandima.kariyawasam@equity.softlogic.lk +94 11 7277058, +94 77 7885778 Thanuja De Silva thanuja.desilva@equity.softlogic.lk +94 11 7277059, +94 77 3120018

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