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FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS TECHNICAL COOPERATION PROGRAMME

Arab Republic of Egypt

TCP/EGY/3301 (D)

Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta

Mission report International consultant, climate change expert J. BLANKEN (March 2012)

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i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first in-country mission to Egypt of the international climate change (CC) expert was carried out from February 11th to 24th, 2012. Following a kick-off meeting at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo on February 12th, 2012, the consultant had the opportunity to meet with representatives and key staff of all project implementing agencies within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR) and relevant to this FAO Technical Cooperation Project (TCP), i.e. mainly the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) as well as the Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute (SWERI). In addition, work meetings were organized with other institutions such as the National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), the Coastal Research Institute (CORI), the Environmental and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI), the Drainage Research Institute (DRI). At the end of the mission, a wrap-up meeting was held on February 23rd, 2012, chaired by the Director of CLAC, acting also as the National Program Coordinator (NPC). The same day, a debriefing meeting was organized at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo. The TCP started on October 1st, 2010, with a total duration of 24 months, i.e. project closure date is September 30, 2012. The effective start of the project has seen some important delays and there can be no doubt that the implementation of the project‟s key activities was severely affected by the January / February 2011 revolution and the ensuing deep political crises and turmoil. This is also evidenced by the fact that the project inception workshop was only held on December 26, 2011, i.e. almost 15 months after project start. Following this general political crises, it seems that ARC as the main partner institution for this TCP has hardly played any major role in effectively coordinating and steering the main project activities. In fact, there currently seems to be an important institutional vacuum at higher ARC management and decision-making levels, which also has been deepened by frequent staff turnover and lack of political guidance at higher management levels. There is evidence that the responsibility for overall project coordination and steering at least informally has been delegated by ARC to CLAC, and particularly the Director of CLAC acting as NPC. While CLAC‟s main mandate includes the collection and analysis of all data related to agricultural climate and testing its effect on the Egyptian agriculture sector as well as testing different scenarios related to mitigation and adaptation to CC for agriculture activities, its role and future direct responsibility for elaborating and running groundwater simulation models as envisaged under the project still needs to be defined in more detail. However, CLAC at present has neither the mandate nor the scientific and technical capacity and competence for effectively dealing with these subjects and therefore will have to rely to a very large extent on the assistance of specialized institutions outside MALR and ARC, most notably the Groundwater Research Institute (GWRI), DRI as well as CORI. As far as SWERI‟s role in project implementation is concerned, since project inception there are no major deviations as compared to the initially identified overall responsibility and more detailed task description. The Climate Change Information Centre (CCIC) has been established in 2007 with the overall goal of coordinating CC activities carried out by the different institutions of MALR, including planning, information exchange, consolidation of results and establishment of a database for decision-making. Furthermore, CCIC has been entrusted with facilitating and ensuring effective liaison between MALR and other departments or sector Ministries in the area of climate change related matters. However, since its establishment, CCIC has hardly been operational and so far has never been in a position to adequately assume the detailed tasks as assigned to it under the project. This is particularly pertaining to developing the centre‟s
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ii abilities in calibrating, validating and running simulation models for predicting likely impacts of CC on agriculture in the Nile Delta. Given the fact that CCIC is more or less non-existent, there presently is a vacuum not only as regards the responsibility for carrying out these simulation activities, but also and even more importantly for ensuring effective coordination both within MALR and other departments or sector Ministries. At project appraisal, an inter-institutional Steering Committee (SC) for the project chaired by the Chairman of ARC had already been established. However, its seems that since project inception the SC did never meet regularly as planned and consequently has never been able to actively take over its responsibilities for coordinating, planning, guiding and overseeing the project activities, and to serve as a main channel for inter-institutional communication. The activities carried out by the consultant in a first step concentrated to a very large extent on reviewing the progress achieved to date in implementing the soil and water monitoring activities carried out by SWERI on the basis of 2 letters of agreement (LoA). In this regard, it can be concluded that most of the activities and expected outputs of the initial project logical framework have been effectively achieved. Since June 2011, SWERI has installed a total of 75 bathometers (or observation wells) to monitor groundwater levels as well as water and soil quality in the coastal belt extending from Alexandria to Port Said. This impact monitoring network has been checked and geo-referenced as planned, with assistance provided by the national GIS and Remote Sensing consultant from NARSS. Monitoring and data collection also started in June 2011 and since then is on-going. With respect to soil salinity, it is envisaged to carry out during the whole project period a total of 3 sample collections. The first soil samples were taken in June 2011 and the data have been analyzed. The second sampling exercise is currently being prepared, and the third and final sampling is to be done in time before project closure in September 2012. Groundwater monitoring is done on a bi-weekly basis for 2 parameters: (1) groundwater depth / depth to water table; and (2) water salinity (restricted however to measuring only electrical conductivity (Ec), without analyzing salt composition and especially sodium contents). Unfortunately, the main preparatory activity of reviewing all previous work done on the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta could not be successfully achieved during the project‟s first 2 months as initially envisaged. As a direct consequence, the design of the soil and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI did not benefit from such a systematic review. Furthermore, it seems that at project start and prior to embarking upon the SWERI soil and water monitoring activities, no comprehensive conceptual framework has been developed on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on groundwater tables, water and soil salinity and irrigated agriculture, and such a framework is still lacking today. There is no doubt that a proper understanding of these very complex interactions and its underlying cause-effect-relationships can only be achieved on the basis of an integrated and multi-disciplinary approach. Accordingly, the development of such a conceptual framework inevitably would have required bringing together specialized key resource persons from all relevant disciplines and institutions, both within MALR and from outside, particularly the various research institutes established under the NWRC of MWRI (GWRI, CORI, DRI, ECRI etc.). It should also be noted that at present, the mandate for carrying out groundwater monitoring and modeling activities and related applied research is mainly vested with the GWRI of NRWC / MWRI. In addition, important research activities on the interaction of SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta area have also been carried out by CORI for a long time and there is a vast body of data and results available from this
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iii research. More recently, CORI in close cooperation with GWRI as well as DRI completed a research project on the assessment of the impacts of CC and SLR on the drainage system of the Nile Delta, in cooperation with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). It is concluded that, based on the current research design, the soil and water monitoring activities of SWERI will most probably not provide the data and results that are urgently needed for improving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity. Furthermore, these data will definitely not be sufficient for successfully carrying out groundwater modelling and simulation activities as envisaged under the project, as long as these are not completed and correlated with other relevant data. It is therefore suggested that a workshop be organized as soon as possible by ARC/CLAC with the major objective of establishing the conceptual framework required for ensuring that the best possible use can be made of the data collected by SWERI. This workshop should provide the opportunity for jointly reviewing and adapting the current research design as requested, taking into account the full set of parameters that are needed for successfully completing this project activity. There is a large consensus that looking at the shallow groundwater tables only is insufficient to fully capture the complex interactions of SLR, saltwater intrusion and irrigated agriculture. Hence, it will be required to assess these impacts on the entire aquifer columns, their basic characteristics and dynamics, based on data that are available or regularly collected from the existing groundwater monitoring network (including deep water tables) and by using available groundwater models. Furthermore, these interactions can only be understood and simulated for assessing potential future changes when irrigation and drainage conditions are also taken into account, as these are key determinants of the parameters currently monitored by SWERI (mainly irrigation water availability / irrigation applications in terms of quantity, quality and timing as well as performance of the drainage systems and related improvement measures). The suggested list of participants for this workshop (with duration of 2 to 3 days) in addition to ARC/CLAC and SWERI should mainly include GWRI; CORI; DRI; ECRI; Egyptian Public Authority for Drainage Projects (EPADP); Drainage Authority of MWRI; Irrigation Sector / Irrigation Improvement Sector of MWRI; Management and M&E Unit of the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP); Water Quality Unit of MWRI; Project Manager of the Adaptation of the Nile Delta to Climate Changes and Sea Level Rise through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (CORI); Specialists from national Universities; international and national project consultants (as far as possible). There is no doubt that a total observation period of only about 15 months under the project will be insufficient to gather representative and final data and results for improving the current knowledge base on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on groundwater and soils in the Nile Delta. An extension of this soil and water monitoring activity beyond project closure in September 2012 is therefore indispensable and has to be prepared in time. This workshop would also provide the opportunity for jointly discussing how these soil and water monitoring activities can be continued beyond September 2012, including the adequate definition of the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the various stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking. Ideally, the workshop participants should also jointly contribute to drafting a memorandum of understanding to be subsequently signed by MALR and MWRI. As requested in the ToR, the international CC consultant in close coordination with the national CC consultant and the national hydrogeology consultant also carried out the task of
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iv reviewing all previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular the coastal area of the Nile Delta. In order to avoid duplication of efforts and to ensure a multi-disciplinary approach for responding to this task, it was mutually agreed that the national CC consultant and the national hydrogeology consultant – who have both extensive and ample previous experience in carrying out research work on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion in the Nile Delta area - in their review work and the mission reports still to be submitted will mostly concentrate on the expected geo-physical as well as hydraulic / hydrological impacts. On the other hand, the international CC consultant in his review should concentrate first of all on the analysis of the potential effects of SLR and sea water intrusion on agricultural production and related socioeconomic effects. The results of this summarizing review have shown that so far rather little work has been done on assessing in detail the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion on the development of irrigated agriculture in the Nile Delta. Most studies have concentrated on estimating the permanent loss of agricultural land as a result of inundation, with the damage caused by this process usually expressed in both the value of this land and the concomitant permanent reduction of agricultural output. However, in most cases these estimates have been based on rather highly aggregated values for both land values and production losses, generally taken from secondary data sources, and by applying rather heterogeneous methodological approaches that are often poorly described and documented. While this review might not yet be complete or exhaustive and therefore should be continued in the forthcoming missions, there seems to be ample evidence that most studies and assessments for their estimates have not taken into account the detailed cropping patterns, cropping intensities as well as locationspecific yield levels for the most important crops as they can currently be found in the area most vulnerable to SLR, risks of inundation and salt water intrusion. In addition, estimating the associated losses in both financial and economic terms has hardly been based on a detailed analysis of the prevailing profitability of the most important crop and livestock production systems and representative farm-household models, which would also provide the basis for a more detailed and in-depth assessment of the potential socioeconomic impacts, such as employment and food security impacts. It is therefore suggested to carry out a more detailed assessment of the expected negative impacts on irrigated agriculture, and to also attempt to go beyond purely qualitative considerations and try to quantify these effects as much as possible. In this regard, the methodological approach proposed by the consultant for assessing the impacts on agricultural production and farm income is based mainly on the assumption that, due to the limited remaining project life time of about 7 months, it will hardly be feasible to engage in larger scale primary data collection activities such as extended farm or household surveys, given the substantial time inputs required for their preparation, field implementation and the subsequent data entry and analysis. Top priority therefore is attached to using available secondary data sources to the extent possible, and to examine the opportunity and possibility of complementing such secondary data analysis by carrying out some specific case studies that might realistically be completed before project closure. Accordingly, the methodological approach might follow a step-wise procedure at different analytical levels, i.e. (i) Governorates; (ii) Districts (both administrative and irrigation / drainage); (iii) village; (iv) farms / households; (v) crop and livestock enterprises. In a first step, relevant agricultural data should be collected from the Agricultural Statistics Yearbook(s) for the 6 Governorates where the soil and water monitoring sites have been installed by SWERI and which fall into the coastal area that is most prone to the risks of
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v inundation and salt water intrusion (Alexandria; Beheira; Kafr-El-Sheikh; Dakaliah; Damietta; Port Said), covering at least the last 5 years and including demographic and sociodemographic data (especially total and agricultural population); total land area and land use; agricultural land (old and new lands); number of farms and average farm size; importance of livestock (numbers and composition); cropped areas and cropping patterns by major crops and agricultural seasons; yields of major crops; inputs / production costs; net returns / farm income. Once these data have been compiled, a descriptive analysis should be carried in a next step, mainly with a view of identifying recent trends as well as the main factors that might explain the observed trends (if any), especially concerning cropping patterns, crop yields etc.. In a second step, the same parameters should then be collected from official MALR statistical records at the administrative District level, for the same time-series period. If required, these District-level data might at a later stage be further disaggregated by using cooperative data which will however not cover the same set of parameters indicated above. These District-level agricultural statistics should be complemented by collecting the most relevant irrigation and drainage data from MWRI (taking however into account that administrative District boundaries do generally not match with Irrigation / Drainage Districts). The analysis of the major agricultural statistical data on Governorate and District levels, together with supplementary information to be collected most notably on irrigation and drainage conditions in the study area, will provide the main basis for identifying representative farm and household models and for describing their main characteristics and dynamics. Once the prevailing farm and household systems are identified and characterized, the analysis might be extended to also include an in-depth assessment of the productivity and profitability of the major crops and livestock activities, which would then allow calculating farm and household incomes for the representative models. A simple, EXCEL-based model is available with the international CC consultant, which has been specifically developed and designed for assessing the financial and economic impacts of different irrigation improvement projects in the Nile Delta area (IIP and IIIMP). A copy of this model has been provided to CLAC and it was agreed that this model might be used as a first template and subsequently be adapted and amended to cater for the specific needs of assessing and simulating the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on agricultural production and farmers‟ income in the Nile Delta area. It still needs to be decided whether these assessments should be restricted to financial analysis, thus concentrating on the effects from farmers‟ point of view; or whether a complete economic analysis from the society‟s point of view should be carried out. The assessments briefly described in the preceding sections might then be usefully complemented by carrying out selected case studies. In this regard, the availability of relevant data that might be used for complementing the research activities initiated under the project should be seen the major selection criterion. Following the various work meetings and discussions that the consultant had in the course of his mission, there at present seem to be the following two opportunities for cooperating with other institutions on a case study basis: (1) collaborate with ECRI on a recently started research project entitled „adaptation options to face CC scenarios for water and agriculture sectors‟ for which the 2 Districts of Rashid and Edko in the Rosetta area have been selected as study area; (2) The Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP) undoubtedly represents the most important MWRI activity on this subject and its intervention area is overlapping to a very extent with the network of soil and water monitoring sites established by SWERI under the project, especially in El Raml District of Alexandria and several other locations of Beheira and Kafr-El-Sheikh Governorates. IIIMP disposes of a rather detailed and elaborate impact M&E systems and a
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vi large amount of data has already been collected that might be of particular interest and high relevance for completing the soil and water monitoring activities initiated under the project. The task of assessing the impact and effectiveness of existing national policies and arrangements of mitigating likely CC impacts on the coastal areas of the Nile Delta has been assigned to the international socioeconomics consultant. However, the latter has not been identified and recruited yet and taking into account the limited time till project closure in September 2012, the international CC consultant started collecting and reviewing the most relevant national policy and strategy documents on CC impacts as well as mitigation and adaptation measures. These particularly include (i) the Initial National Communication (INC) on Climate Change (July 1999); (ii) the National Environmental Action Plan 2002/2017 (NEAP; December 2001); (iii) the National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030 (NSADS; 2009); (iv) the National Environmental, Economic and Development Study for Climate Change (NEEDS; April 2010); (v) the Second National Communication on Climate Change, May 2010; and (vi) the National Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change (NSACC), adopted and published in December 2011. Given the fact that the water resources sector is among the sectors most severely impacted by CC, this analysis should be extended to also include the National Water Resources Plan / Water for the Future (NWRP; June 2004), as well as the Integrated Water Resources Management Plan of June 2005. Provided that this suggestion is approved by ARC / CLAC and FAO, the task of carrying out this assessment might be assigned to the international CC consultant and this assessment might be continued and completed during the consultant‟s second mission. The main conclusions and recommendations are briefly summarized as follows:  For project implementation to be successful for the remainder of the initial project lifetime (only 7 months to go until the end of September 2012), especially ARC would have to assume a much more proactive role in overall project coordination and steering. In this context, it is of paramount importance to particularly improve coordination and cooperation with MWRI and its specialized research institutes under NWRC, with a view of exchanging relevant methodological experience and data and to complement the soil and water monitoring data collected by SWERI under the project. There is an urgent need to update the project‟s work plan for the remaining 7 months of project implementation and to proceed to a detailed planning and time schedule of the various consultant inputs that are still to be recruited and implemented. There is quite some evidence that the data currently collected and analysed by SWERI in the frame of the soil and water monitoring activities will not be sufficient for improving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity and that they will not allow to successfully proceed to the envisaged groundwater modelling and simulation activities, as long as these are not complemented by and correlated with other relevant data. Therefore, a workshop should be organized as soon as possible by ARC / CLAC with the following major objectives: (i) establish the conceptual framework required for ensuring that the best possible use can be made of the data collected by SWERI, based on a joint review and adaptation of the current research design and the proper identification of the additional data requirements (basic characteristics and dynamics of the prevailing aquifers, including deep water tables; irrigation and drainage conditions etc.); (ii) jointly discuss how the soil and water monitoring activities initiated under the

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vii project can be continued beyond project closure in September 2012,and (iii) adequately define the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the various stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking, including the drafting of a memorandum of understanding to be subsequently signed by MALR and MWRI.  As far as the analysis of the impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on agricultural production in the Nile Delta area is concerned, it is suggested to entrust the national agronomy consultant as soon as possible with carrying out the collection and analysis of the secondary agricultural statistics at Governorate and District levels according to the general methodological approach advocated in this mission report. Given the fact that there is substantial overlap in their respective terms of reference, the national agronomy consultant and the international CC consultant will have to work as closely together as possible, thus requiring a regular exchange and communication. It is furthermore suggested, that the second mission of the international CC consultant should overlap as much as possible with the national agronomy consultant, thus requiring adequate coordination efforts at the level of ARC / CLAC. There is also substantial overlap in the specific tasks assigned to international CC consultant, the national agronomy consultant and the international socioeconomics consultant. As far as the latter is concerned, no recruitment has taken place as of now. In this context, it is suggested to carefully examine the opportunity of shifting the subject and focus of the second international consultant from socio-economics to hydrology and / or hydrogeology. If properly implemented and coordinated, the missions of the international CC consultant and the national agronomy consultant should suffice for effectively carrying out the required impact analyses on agricultural production as well as other socio-economic effects. On the other hand, there might be a need and opportunity for reinforcing the specific knowledge and experience relating to the interdependency of SLR, sea water intrusion and groundwater dynamics, with a view of complementing the national capacity that is currently existing in this field. As much as possible, the initial time schedule for the second in-country mission of the international CC consultant should be maintained, i.e. a mission of 2 to 3 weeks in late April or early May 2012. As indicated above, this second mission should overlap with the inputs of the national agronomy consultant and accordingly, his effectively availability during the indicated period would have to be confirmed.

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viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 Summary presentation of project rationale and objectives as well as implementation and management arrangements ....................................................................................... 2 Terms of reference of the international climate change expert ....................................... 5 Comments on the terms of reference ............................................................................... 5 Progress of project implementation .................................................................................... 7 Introductory remarks ....................................................................................................... 7 Soil and water monitoring by SWERI ............................................................................. 7 Institutional and project management arrangements ..................................................... 14 Main activities of the consultant and preliminary results and suggestions ....................... 16

3.1 Review of previous work on the impacts of sea level rise and saltwater intrusion ....... 16 3.2 Review of the relevant national policy and strategy framework ................................... 20 3.3 Study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta ..................................... 20 3.3.1 Collection and analysis of secondary data at Governorate level ............................... 21 3.3.2 Collection and analysis of secondary data at District level ....................................... 22 3.3.3 Identification of representative farm-household models and crop budgets ............... 22 3.3.4 Carrying out selected case studies ............................................................................. 24 4 Conclusions and recommendations................................................................................... 25

ANNEXES Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 TABLES 1

Mission itinerary List of persons met Logical framework Bibliography

Current major overlaps in the consultants‟ task descriptions for analyzing / studying the impacts on agricultural production

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ix FIGURES page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Location of the SWERI soil and water monitoring sites Groundwater salinity - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites (15(6/2012) Depth-to-water table - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites (15(6/2012) Initial bathometer design parameters Middle East and North Africa region: Population impacted by SLR Middle East and North Africa: GDP impacted by SLR Middle East and North Africa: agricultural extent impacted by SLR Administrative Districts of the project study area Intervention area of the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP) 8 9 9 11 17 18 18 23 26

ACRONYMS ARC ARDF CLAC CC CCIC CCRMP CDM CORI DRI DSS ECRI EEAA EPADP FAO GCM GDP GIS GIZ GHG IDRC IFAD IIP IIIMP IIS INC IPCC JP LTO MDGs MALR MDGAF MSEA Agriculture Research Center (MALR) Agricultural Research for Development Fund Central Laboratory of Agriculture Climate Climate Change Climate Change Information Centre (MALR) Climate Change Risk Management Programme Clean Development Mechanism Coastal Research Institute Drainage Research Institute Decision Support System Environment and Climate Change Research Institute Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency Egyptian Public Authority for Drainage Projects Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Global Climate Model Gross Domestic Product Geographical Information System Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for International Cooperation) Greenhouse Gas International Development Research Centre International Fund for Agricultural Development Irrigation Improvement Project Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project Irrigation Improvement Sector Initial National Communication on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN) Joint Program Lead Technical Unit (FAO) Millennium Development Goals Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs

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x NARSSS NDP NEAP NEEDS NPC NSADS NWRC PPR SLR SNC SWERI TCP TOR UNJP National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences National Drainage Project National Environmental Action Plan National Environmental, Economic and Development Study on Climate Change National Project Coordinator National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy National Water Research Centre Project Progress Report Sea Level Rise Second National Communication on Climate Change Soil, Water and Environment Research Center Technical Cooperation Programme Terms of Reference UN Joint Programme

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1 1 Introduction

The present mission report of the international climate change expert is based on the first incountry mission to Egypt carried out from February 11th to 24th, 2012. Following a kick-off meeting at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo on February 12th, 2012, the consultant during his stay in Egypt had the opportunity to meet with representatives and key staff of all project implementing agencies within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR) and relevant to this FAO Technical Cooperation Project (TCP), i.e. mainly the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) as well as the Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute (SWERI). In addition, work meetings were also organized and held with other institutions outside MALR that are directly concerned either by the provision of specialist services as national consultants under the project, such as the National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS) for GIS support services and the Coastal Research Institute (CORI) for support on hydrology and hydrogeology expertise, or because of the pertinence of their past and / or on-going research and development activities in the area of climate change (CC) in general, and in the field of assessing the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) as well as saltwater intrusion, in particular. This is the case especially for the Environmental and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI) and the Drainage Research Institute (DRI), both belonging to the National Water Research Centre (NWRC) established under the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI). Finally, there have also been limited exchanges with other entities of MWRI, mainly as regards its on-going activities in the area of irrigation and drainage improvement projects (most notably the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP). Last but not least, the mission also provided the opportunity to meet with representatives of other donors and cooperation agencies. At the end of the mission, a wrap-up meeting was held on Thursday February 23rd, 2012, at CLAC headquarters, chaired by the Director of CLAC, acting also as the National Program Coordinator (NPC). The same day, a debriefing meeting chaired by the FAO Representative for Egypt was organized at the FAO Regional Office in Cairo. The detailed mission itinerary is given in annex 1, while annex 2 provides a list of key persons met in the course of the mission. The consultant seizes this opportunity to express his sincere appreciation and gratitude for the warm hospitality and courtesy extended to him in the course of this mission by all persons who he had the opportunity and pleasure to meet with. The consultant is also grateful for the perfect organization of this mission by both the FAO Regional Office Cairo and CLAC, the logistical support he enjoyed, as well as the fruitful and constructive work atmosphere. The present report is structured as follows. First, a brief presentation of the project‟s rationale and objectives as well as its main implementation and management arrangements is given in chapter 1.1. The detailed tasks assigned to the international CC consultant are presented in chapter 1.2, before chapter 1.3 summarizes some major observations with respect to the task descriptions of the various international and national consultants to be
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2 recruited under this project, with a view of identifying the needs for a more detailed division of their respective tasks and for a better coordination of the envisaged consultant inputs. Chapter 2 is then dedicated to a brief summary of the progress of project implementation since its effective start in October 2010, concentrating to a very large extent on the soil and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI and which can be considered as the cornerstone of specific data collection on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion in the Nile Delta as initiated under the project. Based on the detailed tasks assigned to the international CC consultant, the main results of the mission are summarized in chapter 3, mainly concentrating on the review of the work done so far on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion in the Nile Delta, focusing to a large extent on the impacts on agricultural production and farmers‟ income as requested in the terms of reference. Based on this review, more detailed proposals are developed and presented for the methodological approaches that might guide the future work of the international CC consultant in carrying out additional analyses on the impacts on agricultural production, farm incomes as well as other important socioeconomic impact indicators. In this regard, particular attention is also given to reviewing the specific tasks as currently assigned to the international CC consultant, the international socioeconomics consultant as well as the national agronomy consultant, in order to avoid duplication of efforts and to ensure that a coordinated and cooperative approach can be adopted for the work still to be done until project closure in September 2012. Finally, the major recommendations for future project implementation are summarized in chapter 4. 1.1 Summary presentation of project rationale and objectives as well as implementation and management arrangements

Agriculture is a key sector for the socio-economic development in Egypt and plays a significant role in the country‟s national economy. It contributes to the overall food needs and provides domestic industry with agricultural raw materials. About 50% of the Egyptian population relies on agriculture for income generation and employment opportunities. The agricultural sector employs more than 30% of the labor force and provides about 20% of the country's exports. A large portion of the important processing industries depend on raw materials produced by the sector. The Nile Delta and the narrow valley of the Nile represent only about 5% of the area of Egypt; their importance is vital however as they cater for 95% of the total agricultural lands and host the same percentage of the total population. This backbone of Egypt, particularly for food production, is subject to several threats including the encroachment of buildings and roads, pollution of land, air and water, and decrease of per capita water resources as a result of population growth. In addition to these “traditional” threats, new risks stemming from climate change have emerged over the past few years. According to IPCC reports, Egypt is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Current and future changes in climatic conditions constitute a major environmental risk that may jeopardize Egypt‟s development gains and efforts for poverty reduction. Coastal zones, agriculture and water resources are identified by the Initial National Communication (INC) of Egypt as the country‟s most vulnerable sectors to climate
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3 change. Furthermore, temperature rises will also likely reduce the productivity of major crops and increase their water requirements and irrigation demand. The Mediterranean coast and the Nile Delta have been identified as specifically vulnerable to Sea Level Rise (SLR). Estimates indicate that 0.5 m SLR would lead to the permanent submersion of 1,800 km2 of cropland in low lands of the Nile Delta, and accelerate the trends of desertification in the form of increased soil salinity in the remaining lands. Depending on the underlying hypotheses and scenarios, SLR might cause the loss of as much as 12-15% of the existing agricultural land in the Delta, corresponding to the loss of 30% of the total land area, and 195,000 jobs. With 1m SLR in the Mediterranean Sea, parts of the protective offshore sand belt in the Nile Delta will be destroyed. As a result water quality in coastal freshwater lagoons will be altered, groundwater salinity will be increased, and a lot of recreational tourism and beach facilities are expected to be inundated. In addition, more than 6 million people might be displaced and 4,500 square kilometres of cropland might be permanently lost. The induced economic losses have been estimated to exceed US$ 35,000 million. As a consequence, Egypt is in urgent need of building and developing capacities of both human resources and institutions to elaborate and implement effective strategies for managing climate change risks in key vulnerable sectors. The country is taking several steps in this direction, but needs technical support to further enhance local capacities to adapt to climate change impacts, particularly in the agriculture sector. In this context, MALR has requested FAO and other partners to contribute to the provision of such support. Against this background and overall problem setting, the project‟s overall objective (impact level) is to develop a decision support system (DSS) for predicting and mitigating the likely impacts of climate change (CC) on agricultural production and the environment along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta (see details in the logical framework matrix attached in annex 3). This DSS is meant to constitute the basis of a modern integrated national network for monitoring CC impacts on agriculture, which is one of the main components of the National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy (NSADS) towards 2030. The expected outcome of the project is to elaborate a comprehensive monitoring system able to generate sound forecasts of SLR impacts resulting from CC on soil and groundwater in the Nile Delta to serve as a decision-support (information) system for mitigating/adapting to such impacts on the environment, agriculture and population. More specifically, the following outputs are expected from the project:  CC impact monitoring sites (for soil and groundwater) identified, observation wells installed, and geo-referenced;  likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwater quality known;  action-oriented information system for predicting the likely impacts and adaptation measures of CC along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta established. In order to effectively achieve these specific outputs, the major activities initially envisaged in the project planning document mainly include the following:
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4              knowledge base study on SLR changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta; identification of monitoring variables/parameters (for soil and groundwater); selection of representative pilot areas; selection of monitoring sites; monitoring network installation, checking and geo-referencing; monitoring and data collection; data analysis and interpretation; simulation of likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization based on potential local SLR ranges; calibration and/or validation of selected models such as groundwater model and soil model; economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of CC impacts, particularly changes in soil and groundwater due to SLR; development and maintenance of a web-site to facilitate access to information on the impacts of CC along the coastal area of the Nile Delta; preparation of a technical report on likely impacts and adaptation measures of climate change (CC) along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta; holding of dissemination workshops on the project results.

The main project inputs to be provided through the contribution of FAO mainly comprise the mobilization of specialized consulting services, through the recruitment of international as well as national short-term consultants mainly in the following areas or disciplines: international consultants (1) International Consultant - CC Expert: 75 days in three missions; (2) TCDC/Retired Expert - Socio-Economist: 45 days in two missions. national consultants (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) National Consultant – Hydro-geologist: 90 days; National Consultant – GIS/RS Specialist: 60 days; National Consultant - Statistician/Simulation Specialist: 75 days; National Consultant - CC Expert: 90 days; National Consultant – IT Website Developer: 90 days; National Consultant - Agronomist: 60 days; 5 National Consultants - Site Monitors: 90 days each.

In addition, the FAO contribution is covering (i) non-professional national personnel; (ii) official travel; (iii) FAO technical support services; (iv) training and national workshops; (v) expendable equipment (materials and supplies); (vi) non expendable equipment; (vii) general operating expenses; as well as (viii) support cost. As far as project organization and implementation arrangements are concerned, MALR has been entrusted the overall project responsibility, whereas the direct supervision is to be provided by the Agriculture Research Centre (ARC). Under ARC, the following three institutions have been designated as implementing agencies: CLAC, SWERI, and the Climate Change Information Centre (CCIC).
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5 1.2 Terms of reference of the international climate change expert

The terms of reference (ToR) and specific tasks assigned to the international climate change expert read as follows: 1. review previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular coastal area of the Nile Delta; 2. prepare likely local SLR scenarios; 3. work closely with the statistician/simulation specialist and hydro-geologist to conduct simulation of the likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization; 4. conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta; 5. review and update the TOR of the national consultant counterpart as needed and guide the orientation of his/her work; 6. contribute to the preparation of the draft strategy for the development of adaptation and mitigation measures; 7. act as a resource person for national workshops and their relevant components; 8. prepare a synthetic report after each mission on the activities performed to the NPC for transmission to the FAO RNE; 9. perform any other technical tasks as may be requested by the National Project Coordinator (NPC) in the framework of project activities. According to the project planning document, these ToR are to be achieved in a total of 3 incountry mission, with a total duration of 75 work days. Referring to the project‟s logical framework matrix (see annex 3), the inputs of the international CC consultant are consequently expected to contribute mainly to achieving the following specific outputs:  output 1 „CC impact monitoring sites identified‟, and more precisely sub-output 1.1 „review all previous work done on sea level changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta‟; output 3 „likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwater quality known‟, especially sub-outputs 3.4 „modelling likely future CC impact scenarios‟ as well as 3.5 „economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of CC impacts, particularly changes in soil and groundwater due to SLR‟. Comments on the terms of reference

1.3

The thorough review of the detailed tasks that have been assigned to the different national and international consultants in the initial project document (and which so far have never been up-dated) reveals that there is substantial overlap in the task descriptions, making it thus difficult to precisely identify their division of respective tasks and direct responsibilities. As far as the review of previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular the coastal area of the Nile Delta is concerned, this task has been jointly assigned to the
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6 international CC consultant, the national CC consultant, the international socioeconomics consultant as well as the national hydrogeology consultant. There is, however, no detailed indication of the specialist areas to be covered by every consultant. Therefore, ensuring a very close coordination and cooperation between the various consultants is of utmost importance for effectively achieving this activity and this should be facilitated by ARC and CLAC. As can be seen from table 1 below, these overlapping tasks and responsibilities are also quite substantial for the missions of the international CC expert, the international socioeconomics consultant and the national agronomy consultant, as far as they relate to studying and analyzing the potential impacts on agricultural production and consequently farmers‟ income. While the major task assigned in this regard to the international CC consultant is formulated in a very rough and vague manner (conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta), there is almost a perfect duplication of the specific tasks assigned to both the international socioeconomics consultant and the national agronomy consultant with regard to assessing the potential impacts of CC particularly on land use, cropping pattern, productivity and production, water availability and irrigation in the coastal area of the Nile Delta. Table 1:
consultants international CC expert international socioeconomist

Current major overlaps in the consultants’ task descriptions for analyzing / studying the impacts on agricultural production
detailed task assignment and overlap   conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta conduct an assessment on the economic, social and environmental consequences of CC in the coastal area of the Nile Delta of Egypt. More specifically assess, qualitatively, the likely impact of CC on:  land use, cropping pattern, productivity and production, water availability and irrigation in the coastal area of the Nile Delta  employment and income of the households  livelihood sustainability and food security. conduct an assessment on the likely impact of CC on crop production in coastal area of Nile Delta. More specifically assess, qualitatively, the likely changes in:  cropped area, productivity and production of principal crops  land use, cropping pattern and crop mix, and  water availability and irrigation in the coastal area of the Nile Delta  assess the changes in cropping practices, its economic and environmental sustainability and viability, particularly for small and marginal landholders

national agronomist

As a consequence and for implementation in the remainder of the project duration to be as efficient as possible, there is an urgent need to carefully review the detailed tasks assigned to the national and international consultants and to also ensure that these missions will as
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7 much as possible be overlapping, thus ensuring a close coordination of the consultant inputs. On the other hand, this review must inevitably take into account that there are only about 7 months left until project closure by the end of September 2012 (see section 2.1 below). This is to say that the planning of the consultant inputs still to recruited should be based on a sound identification of the specific results that can realistically be achieved by project closure. Accordingly, it might not be feasible to engage in larger scale primary data collection activities such as extended farm or household surveys, given the substantial time inputs required for their preparation, field implementation and the subsequent data entry and analysis. Instead, top priority should be attached to using readily available secondary data sources to the extent possible, and to examine the opportunity and possibility of complementing such secondary data analysis by carrying out some specific case studies. In this regard, more detailed proposals and conclusions are developed are presented in chapters 3 and 4. 2 2.1 Progress of project implementation Introductory remarks

The project started on October 1st, 2010, with a total duration of 24 months, i.e. project closure date is September 30, 2012. While the effective start of project activities has seen some important delays for several reasons that might first of all be attributed to setting up the rather complex institutional and project management arrangements, there can be no doubt that subsequent implementation of the project‟s key activities was severely affected by the January / February 2011 revolution and the ensuing deep political crises and turmoil, generally leading to a climate of insecurity as well as frequent changes at key management and decision-making levels in almost all Government institutions, including MALR and ARC. It should be noted that the project inception workshop was only held on December 26, 2011, i.e. almost 15 months after project start, bringing together a total of 58 participants and key resource persons, mostly from MALR and its various entities and few representatives from MWRI and other specialized institutions. However, soil and water monitoring activities carried out by SWERI already started in June 2011 and so far represent the project‟s most important activity with respect to the main project objective of improving the current knowledge base on the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion on groundwater tables as well as groundwater and soil salinity in the coastal area of the Nile Delta. 2.2 Soil and water monitoring by SWERI

Carrying out the soil and water monitoring activities has been assigned to SWERI on the basis of 2 letters of agreement (LoA) signed to this effect with the FAO Regional Office: 1. LoA 1: Installation of a total of 75 bathometers (or observation wells) to monitor groundwater levels as well as water and soil quality in the coastal belt extending from Alexandria to Port Said. This activity was successfully completed in June 2011. It should be noted that in the meantime, SWERI using its own budget has
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8 added approximately 30 bathometers with a view of increasing the sample size (see figure 1 on the following page). 2. LoA 2: Monitoring and data collection for the following parameters: groundwater depth / depth-to-water table; ground water salinity, and soil salinity. Data collection started immediately after having completed the installation of the 75 bathometers, i.e. also in June 2011 and since then is on-going. With respect to soil salinity, it is envisaged to carry out during the whole project period a total of 3 sample collections. The first soil samples were taken in June 2011 and the data have been analyzed. The second sampling exercise is currently being prepared, and the third and final sampling is to be done in time before project closure in September 2012. Groundwater monitoring is done on a bi-weekly basis for 2 parameters: (1) groundwater depth / depth to water table; and (2) water salinity (restricted however to measuring only electrical conductivity (Ec), without analyzing salt composition and especially sodium contents). The first monitoring period extended over 5 months from June to October 2011. Data analysis has been completed, raw data sets are available and results have been presented mainly in a map format (see figures 2 and 3 as examples for the results observed on June 15th, 2011, for both groundwater salinity and depth-to-water table). Figure 1: Location of the SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ TCP/EGY/3301 (D) / Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta – First mission report of the international climate change consultant

9 Figure 2: (15(6/2012) Groundwater salinity-SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

Figure 3: (15(6/2012)

Depth-to-water table - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

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10 It can thus be concluded that by now the following activities and expected outputs of the initial project logical framework have been effectively achieved (see logical framework in annex 3): Output 1: CC impact monitoring sites identified 1.2 1.3 Selection of representative pilot area along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta Monitoring sites and network installation points selected by month 5.

However, due to delays in the effective start of the project and the delayed recruitment of the national and international consultants, it has to be concluded that the main preparatory activity planned under this first project output could so far not be completed, i.e. the review of all previous work done on sea level changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta (activity 1.1; see annex 3). Output 2: CC impact monitoring network installed, checked and geo-referenced The only activity under this second project output, i.e. CC impact monitoring network installed and functional by month 5, has been completed, although with a delay of about 4 months as compared to the initial work plan, and the output can be considered as achieved. For implementing this activity, SWERI was assisted as planned by the national GIS and Remote Sensing consultant (from the National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science; NARSS), particularly in selecting and geo-referencing the monitoring sites as well as map production. Following the review of the results achieved so far and the various meetings that the consultant had in the course of this mission, the major comments applying to the project‟s core activity of soil and water monitoring are summarized as follows. The field visit to Kafr el Sheikh and the discussion with the responsible SWERI staff based at the Sakha Agricultural Experiment Station has shown that the initial technical design parameters (see figure 4) for installing the bathometers could not be respected. Due particularly to farmers‟ resistance, the initial design shown in figure 4 involving a concrete base and an iron pipe casing for fixing the bathometers had to be adapted, leading to a much simpler and less stable design with a 2.5 m PVC pipe just put into the borehole and some sort of artificial fixing by putting soil around the upper parts of the pipe. There seems to be a very high risk that this lack of pipe stability / fixing might translate into important measurement errors for the depth-to-water table readings. Since the standard design level difference of 50 cm between soil level and the top of the pipe is hardly respected, two measurements are actually required: depth-to-water table in the pipe, subsequently corrected by the manually read difference between soil level and the top of the pipe (which might vary from bathometer to bathometer, but also for the same bathometer over time, due to farmers tampering with the artificial pipe fixing).

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11 Figure 4: Initial bathometer design parameters

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

It should also be noted that the SWERI researchers who have been entrusting with the regular soil and water monitoring activities at filed level so far have not been provided with GIS equipment to facilitate field data collection and the proper identification of the monitoring wells (and thus reduce potential data collection errors). Since the implementation of the National Drainage Project (NDP), the Egyptian Public Authority for Drainage Projects (EPADP) under MWRI has started similar groundwater and soil monitoring activities all over Egypt in order to evaluate the effective achievement of the specific objectives generally assigned to drainage improvement measures, i.e. keeping groundwater tables in the root zones at minimum levels that are required for ensuring adequate plant growth. Although data collection frequencies are not the same, EPADP‟s monitoring and evaluation (M&E) activities have been based more or less on the same indicators, measuring at least depth-to-water table and water / soil quality (as well as the development of the yields of major crops). It is somewhat that EPADP‟s long-standing experience (at least more than 10 years of practical implementation experience) in carrying out these M&E activities obviously not been taken into account for designing the soil and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI under the project, e.g. in terms of methodological approaches, appropriate selection of monitoring locations in addition / as a complement to the existing EPADP monitoring network, sharing of M&E results obtained so far etc.. The currently existing soil and water monitoring network of EPADP is at present not known in detail (in terms of the total number and geographical distribution of observation wells). The same is true for the detailed data collection methods and results available so far. However, it can reasonably be assumed that there should be an important number of such EPADP monitoring sites located in the Delta region, simply because the latter – located at
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12 the very tail-end and downstream part of the whole Nile system - undoubtedly is amongst the areas most seriously affected by poor drainage conditions and associated water and soil salinity problems. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that there might be some geographical overlap between the EPADP monitoring sites and the bathometers installed by SWERI in the study area that has been selected for the project based primarily on its vulnerability to SLR and the expected negative impacts of seawater intrusion. Hence, there is a dire and urgent need to contact EPADP as soon as possible with a view of exchanging experience and available data, and to also explore the opportunities and possibilities for increasing future cooperation and coordination. Although, the initiative has been taken by the consultant at the very early start of his mission, it has not been possible to arrange for a meeting with EPADP in the course of the mission. In 2010, a research project entitled „Climate change and seawater intrusion in relation to soil productivity in the Nile Delta‟ has apparently been approved under the Agricultural Research for Development Fund (ARDF). This project initially was to start in March 2011, but was then stopped as a result of the political crisis. The main activity envisaged in the frame of this research project has been the installation of a total of about 600 observation wells across the 8 Governorates of the Nile Delta region, of which about 300 shallow wells up to 2.5 m depth, as well as another 300 wells with depths ranging from 5 to 30 or even 50 m. Although this research project has been prepared and approved almost in parallel to this TCP, with SWERI also acting as main executing and implementing agency, there obviously has been very little coordination and exchange, especially as regards the methodological approaches for conducting such groundwater and soil monitoring activities. At present, the mandate for carrying out groundwater monitoring and modeling activities and related applied research is mainly vested with the Groundwater Research Institute (GWRI) of NRWC / MWRI. In addition, important research activities on the interaction of SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta area have also been carried out by the Coastal Research Institute (CORI) for a long time and there is a vast body of data and results available from this research. More recently, CORI in close cooperation with GWRI as well as the Drainage Research Institute (also under NWRC/MWRI) completed a research project on the assessment of the impacts of CC and SLR on the drainage system of the Nile Delta, in cooperation with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) from Canada. 1 It seems that at project start and prior to embarking upon the SWERI soil and water monitoring activities, no comprehensive conceptual framework has been developed on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on groundwater tables, water and soil salinity and irrigated agriculture, and such a framework is still lacking today. There is no doubt that a proper understanding of these very complex interactions and its underlying cause-effect- relationships can only be achieved on the basis of an integrated and multidisciplinary approach. Accordingly, the development of such a conceptual framework inevitably would have required bringing together specialized key resource persons from all relevant disciplines and institutions, both within MALR and from outside, particularly the
1

It should be added that in Egypt‟s Second National Communication on Climate Change, the mandate for carrying out the priority research projects on studying and assessing the impacts of sea water intrusion on changing water quality in the shallow aquifers in the coastal areas has been assigned to the specialized NWRC institutes under MWRI. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ TCP/EGY/3301 (D) / Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta – First mission report of the international climate change consultant

13 various research institutes established under the NWRC of MWRI (GWRI, CORI, DRI, ECRI etc.). As already indicated in the previous sections, the main preparatory project activity concerning the in-depth review of all previous work done on the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta could not be successfully achieved during the project‟s first 2 months as initially envisaged. As a direct consequence, the design of the soil and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI did not benefit from such a systematic review. For this design, the results and experiences already available, particularly with respect to methodological issues of data collection and analysis, including the appropriate selection of monitoring sites, seem to have been hardly taken into consideration and obviously did not sufficiently guide this research process. It is also safe to observe that especially the national hydrology consultant (Prof. Ibrahim Abd El Magid El Shinnawy, Director of CORI) and the national CC consultant (Prof. Mohamed El Raey, Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, Centre for Climate Change and Risk Reduction, University of Alexandria) have only been recruited when the soil and water monitoring activities of SWERI had already started. Consequently, both specialists have not been consulted and associated for identifying the final selection criteria of the monitoring sites. Following the discussions that the international CC consultant had in the course of the mission with the national hydrology consultant, the national consultant CC, as well as other key resource persons from DRI and ECRI, is has to be concluded that, based on the current research design, the soil and water monitoring activities of SWERI will most probably not provide the data and results that are urgently needed for improving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity. Furthermore, these data will definitely not be sufficient for successfully carrying out groundwater modelling and simulation activities as envisaged under the project (see key project outcome 3.2 in annex 3), as long as these are not completed and correlated with other relevant data. It is therefore suggested that a workshop be organized as soon as possible by ARC / CLAC with the major objective of establishing the conceptual framework required for ensuring that the best possible use can be made of the data collected by SWERI. This workshop should first of all provide the opportunity for jointly reviewing and adapting the current research design as requested, taking into account the full set of parameters that are needed for successfully completing this project activity. There seems to be a large consensus that looking at the shallow groundwater tables only is insufficient to fully capture the complex interactions of SLR, saltwater intrusion and irrigated agriculture. Hence, it will be required to assess these impacts on the entire aquifer columns, their basic characteristics and dynamics, based on data that are available or regularly collected from the existing groundwater monitoring network (including deep water tables) and by using available groundwater models. Furthermore, these interactions can only be understood and simulated for assessing potential future changes when irrigation and drainage conditions are also taken into account, as these are key determinants of the parameters currently monitored by SWERI
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14 (mainly irrigation water availability / irrigation applications in terms of quantity, quality and timing as well as performance of the drainage systems and related improvement measures). Accordingly, the suggested (not exhaustive or exclusive) list of participating institutions for this workshop (with duration of 2 to 3 days) in addition to ARC / CLAC and SWERI should mainly include: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Groundwater Research Institute (GWRI); Coastal Research Institute (CORI); Drainage Research Institute (DRI); Environment and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI); Egyptian Public Authority for Drainage Projects (EPADP); Drainage Authority of MWRI; Irrigation Sector / Irrigation Improvement Sector of MWRI; Management and M&E Unit of the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP); 9. Water Quality Unit of MWRI; 10. Project Manager of the Adaptation of the Nile Delta to Climate Changes and Sea Level Rise through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (CORI); 11. Specialists from national Universities; 12. International and national project consultants (as far as possible). There can also be no doubt that a total observation period of only about 15 months under the project will be absolutely insufficient to gather representative and final data and results for improving the current knowledge base on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on groundwater and soils in the Nile Delta. An extension of this soil and water monitoring activity beyond project closure in September 2012 is therefore indispensable and has to be prepared in time (especially in terms of budget allocation for the next fiscal year starting in July 2012). It is therefore expected that this workshop will provide the basis for jointly discussing how these activities can be continued beyond September 2012, including the adequate definition of the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the various stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking. Ideally, the workshop participants should also jointly contribute to drafting a memorandum of understanding to be subsequently signed by MALR and MWRI. 2.3 Institutional and project management arrangements

As laid out in the project document, the Agriculture Research Centre (ARC) of MALR as the main FAO partner institution for this TCP was to assume the responsibility for the overall coordination of the project‟s activities, including general planning purposes, provision of guidance as well as implementation supervision at the national level. However, following the general political crises that started with the early 2011 revolution, it seems that ARC has hardly played any major role in effectively coordinating and steering the main project activities. In fact, there currently seems to be an important institutional vacuum at higher ARC management and decision-making levels, which also has been deepened by frequent staff turnover and lack of political guidance at higher management levels.
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15 There is ample evidence that the responsibility for overall project coordination and steering at least informally has been delegated by ARC to CLAC, and particularly the Director of CLAC who is also acting as National Project Coordinator (NPC). In addition, the major tasks assigned to CLAC under this project mainly include the assistance in helping in the collection of all the previous work done on CC and SLR impacts on groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta. As planned at the project design stage, CLAC together with SWERI also actively participated in the final selection of the observation wells and monitoring network sites. While CLAC‟s main mandate includes the collection and analysis of all data related to agricultural climate and testing its effect on the Egyptian agriculture sector as well as testing different scenarios related to mitigation and adaptation to CC for agriculture activities, its role and future direct responsibility for elaborating and running groundwater simulation models as envisaged under the project still needs to be defined in more detail. However, CLAC at present has neither the mandate nor the scientific and technical capacity and competence for effectively dealing with these subjects and therefore will have to rely to a very large extent on the assistance of specialized institutions outside MALR and ARC, most notably GWRI, DRI as well as CORI. As far as SWERI‟s role in project implementation is concerned, since project inception there are no major deviations as compared to the initially identified overall responsibility and more detailed task description. As shown in the preceding chapter, SWERI in accordance with its overall mandate is specifically responsible for implementing the soil and water monitoring activities briefly described in section 2.2. Based on the data collected, SWERI for the remainder of the project will be instrumental in assessing soil salinity hazards, the identification of soil salinity build up and impacts, and the provision of advice regarding suitable management of the soil resources affected by climate change and sea level rise. As shown in section 2.2, for successfully achieving this activity and the related project outputs, SWERI will have to cooperate very closely with other research institutes and Government agencies on the basis of an integrated and multi-disciplinary approach. The Climate Change Information Centre (CCIC) has been established in 2007 with the overall goal of coordinating CC activities carried out by the different institutions of MALR, including planning, information exchange, consolidation of results and establishment of a database for decision-making. Furthermore, CCIC has been entrusted with facilitating and ensuring effective liaison between MALR and other departments or sector Ministries in the area of climate change related matters. Another main responsibility assigned to CCIC is the consolidation of all agro-climatic data and their distribution for use by all research institutions for all research activities related to the agriculture sector in the country. However, since its establishment in 2007, CCIC has hardly been operational and so far has never been in a position to adequately assume the detailed tasks as assigned to it under the project. This is particularly pertaining to developing the centre‟s abilities in calibrating, validating and running simulation models for predicting likely impacts of CC on agriculture in the Nile Delta. Given the fact that CCIC is more or less non-existent, there presently is a vacuum not only as regards the responsibility for carrying out these simulation activities, but also and even more importantly for ensuring effective coordination both within MALR and other departments or sector Ministries.
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16 At project appraisal, an inter-institutional Steering Committee (SC) for the project chaired by the Chairman of ARC and comprising all the concerned institutions had already been established. It had also been agreed that the SC would be responsible for coordinating, planning, guiding and overseeing the project activities, with a view to ensure timely and efficient implementation of the project, in particular. Furthermore, the SC was also expected to serve as a main channel for inter-institutional communication. However, its seem that since project inception the SC has never been able to actively take over its assigned roles and responsibilities, and there is ample evidence that the SC did never meet regularly as planned at project appraisal. It can thus be concluded that since its inception, project implementation has been negatively affected by the fact that the rather complex institutional and management structure has never been adequately put in place or at least has not functioned properly. Accordingly, there is a substantial lack of overall project coordination and steering due to ARC‟s limited involvement so far, and the absence of any guidance by the SC, especially as regards the required coordination both within MALR and other departments or sector Ministries. On the other hand the discussion in section 2.2. above has clearly shown that for successfully implementing future project activities and achieving the expected specific project results and outcome in the remaining project lifetime, improved coordination between the project executing agencies and other institutions outside MALR is of paramount importance and undoubtedly has to be considered a major precondition for successful project completion. Hence, it is recommended to reactivate and reinforce the currently existing project organisational structure and institutional as well as management arrangements as soon as possible, requiring especially that ARC and the SC take a much more proactive stance. This should also include reviewing and adapting as required the detailed tasks assigned to the various stakeholders, based on past experience and also taking into account major institutional and organisational bottlenecks (e. g. such as the current nonexistence of CCIC). 3 3.1 Main activities of the consultant and preliminary results and suggestions Review of previous work on the impacts of sea level rise and saltwater intrusion

As indicated in section 1.3, the task of reviewing all previous work on the impacts of CC in Egypt and in particular the coastal area of the Nile Delta has been jointly assigned to the international CC consultant, the national CC consultant, the international socioeconomics consultant as well as the national hydrogeology consultant. There is thus a need to make sure that the different consultants each contribute to effectively achieving this important task according to their areas of specialist experience and knowledge. In order to avoid duplication of efforts and to ensure a multi-disciplinary approach for responding to this task, the international CC consultant in the course of his first mission met with the national CC consultant (Prof. Mohamed El Raey; University of Alexandria) and the national hydrogeology consultant (Prof. Ibrahim Abd El Magid El Shinnawy, Director of CORI), mainly with a view of exchanging on the review work already done and to jointly discuss the most appropriate division of tasks. In these meetings it was mutually agreed that
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17 the national CC consultant and the national hydrogeology consultant – who have both extensive and ample previous experience in carrying out research work on the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion in the Nile Delta area - in their review and the mission reports still to be submitted will mostly concentrate on the expected geo-physical as well as hydraulic / hydrological impacts. On the other hand, the international CC consultant in his review should concentrate first of all on the analysis of the potential effects of SLR and sea water intrusion on agricultural production and related socioeconomic effects. Accordingly, the main results of this review are presented and discussed below. There generally is a vast body of literature (both international and national) on the potential impacts of CC on Egypt and the coastal area of the Nile Delta region, in particular, and most of this literature has been carefully reviewed. As far as agriculture is concerned, the main impact indicators to be found in this literature review include the following:  total land area inundated at different levels of SLR;  land use patterns of the affected areas (agriculture, fisheries, wetlands, industry and human settlements etc.);  population affected;  financial and / or economic damage caused (in terms of Gross Domestic Product; GDP), including the loss of highly productive agricultural land and consequently, reduced agricultural output. In their comparative analysis of the impacts of SLR on developing countries, Dasgupta et al (2007) used the GAE-2 data set of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for calculating the agricultural extent of exposure to different levels of SLR. For Egypt, this study concluded that a 1 m SLR would affect approximately 10 % of the total population, mostly located in the Nile Delta and almost 12,5 % of the countries agricultural extent in terms of the total agricultural area (20 % of total population and 35 % of agricultural extent, respectively, with 5 m SLR). Accordingly, for the Middle East and North Africa region, Egypt is undoubtedly amongst the most seriously affected countries (see figures 5 to 7). Figure 5:
% Impact (Total Population)
25 20 15 10 5 0 A.R. Egypt Tunisia Morocco Libya I.R. Iran Oman Kuwait United Arab Emirates Rep. of Yemen Saudi Arabia Algeria Qatar Former Spanish Sahara

Middle East and North Africa region: Population impacted by SLR
1 meter 2 meter 3 meter 4 meter 5 meter

Source: Dasgupta et al (2007) _____________________________________________________________________________________________ TCP/EGY/3301 (D) / Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta – First mission report of the international climate change consultant

18 Figure 6:
18 16 14

Middle East and North Africa: GDP impacted by SLR
1 meter 2 meter 3 meter 4 meter 5 meter

% Impact (GDP)

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 A.R. Egypt Tunisia Libya United Arab Emirates Morocco I.R. Iran Kuwait Oman Qatar Rep. of Yemen Algeria Saudi Arabia Former Spanish Sahara

Source: Dasgupta et al (2007)

Figure 7:

Middle East and North Africa: Agricultural extent impacted by SLR
1 meter 2 meter 3 meter 4 meter 5 meter

% Impact (Agriculture)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 A.R. Egypt Tunisia Morocco Oman I.R. Iran Libya Algeria Rep. of Yemen Kuwait Qatar United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Former Spanish Sahara

Source: Dasgupta et al (2007)

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19

In the 4th IPCC assessment report, SLR is projected to rise between 18 cm and a maximum of 59 cm by the end of the century, without however taking ice sheet dynamics into account. These projections have been used in several studies for simulating the effects of SLR and the risks of inundation, taking also into account current subsidence trends along the Mediterranean Coast and the Nile Delta, in particular. However, for the latter there as of now doesn‟t seem to be a consensus on the annual rates to be assumed. According to El Raey (2011), annual subsidence rates are estimated to vary from a minimum of 1 mm per year at Burullus, to 1.6 mm per year for Alexandria and a maximum of 2.3 mm per year for Port Said. On the other hand, El Shinnawy (2011) of CORI for his simulations used the following average values for annual subsidence rates: 0.4 mm for Alexandria; 1.1 mm for Burullus and 4.0 mm for Port Said. The study by Fitzgerald et al (2008) is one of the most often cited references when it comes to estimating the impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta. In this study, under the “no action” scenario the total population affected by SLR is estimated at 3.8 million for a SLR of 0.5 m, and 6.1 million for SLR of 1.0 m, respectively. For these 2 scenarios of SLR, the total crop land affected in this study was estimated at 1,800 km2 and 4,500 km2, respectively. However, for this study, the definition of “cropland” is not quite clear. Using the same IPCC projections to 2100 and the annual average subsidence rates indicated above, CORI in a recent study (2009) estimated the total land areas of the Nile Delta affected by SLR at different level as well as their shares in the total land area (see tables IV.5 to IV.7 of the Second National Communication on CC for more details on the results). While most of the studies carried out so far on the likely negative impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on agriculture in the Nile Delta are quite heterogeneous as regards their detailed methodological approaches (e. g. underlying scenarios for international and local level SLR; assumptions on annual subsidence rates etc.), they are on the other hand very homogeneous in using remote sensing and GIS technology for estimating the major impacts in terms of the total and agricultural areas that would be impacted. Depending on the resolution of the satellite images, these area estimates might be more or less accurate. In any case, estimating agricultural land use and detailed cropping patterns based on the use of satellite images remains a rather big challenge and in order to be as accurate as possible needs to be complemented by thorough ground truthing and checking. However, it seems that for the Nile Delta region so far there have been very few, if any, detailed assessments of the SLR impacts on agricultural production, through the effects of both inundation and / or salt water intrusion, in terms of changes in cropping patterns, the productivity / yields of major crops, the use of agricultural inputs, including irrigation water, as well as the development of crop productivities and gross / net returns to farmers (i.e. income effects). The same seems to hold true for assessing the impacts of salt water intrusion on groundwater characteristics and properties as well as the concomitant effects on agricultural production. In order to tackle these research questions, a more detailed methodological approach is developed and presented in section 3.3 below.

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20 3.2 Review of the relevant national policy and strategy framework

At present, the task of assessing the impact and effectiveness of existing national policies and arrangements of mitigating likely CC impacts on the coastal areas of the Nile Delta has been assigned to the international socioeconomics consultant. However, since the latter has not been identified and recruited yet and also taking into account that there are only about 7 months left till project closure in September 2012, the international CC consultant already started collecting and reviewing the most relevant national policy and strategy documents on CC impacts as well as mitigation and adaptation measures. These particularly include (in chronological order): (1) Initial National Communication (INC) on Climate Change, dated July 1999; (2) National Environmental Action Plan of Egypt 2002/2017 (NEAP), draft version dated December 2001; (3) National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030 (NSADS), officially adopted by MALR in 2009; (4) National Environmental, Economic and Development Study for Climate Change (NEEDS), dated April 2010 (5) Second National Communication on Climate Change, May 2010; (6) National Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change (NSACC), adopted and published in December 2011. Given the fact that the water resources sector is among the sectors most severely impacted by CC, it is suggested to extend this policy and strategy analysis to also include the National Water Resources Plan / Water for the Future (NWRP) adopted by MWRI in June 2004, as well as the Integrated Water Resources Management Plan of June 2005 as the major complement to the NWRP. Provided that this suggestion is approved by ARC / CLAC and FAO, the task of carrying out this assessment might be assigned to the international CC consultant. However, given the limited duration of the first mission and the multitude of other tasks, it is hardly possible to integrate the results of this assessment into the first mission report. Accordingly, this assessment might be continued and completed during the consultant‟s second mission. 3.3 Study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta

The results of the summarizing review presented in chapter 3.1 have shown that so far rather little work has been done on assessing in detail the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion on the development of irrigated agriculture in the Nile Delta. Most studies have concentrated on estimating the permanent loss of agricultural land as a result of inundation, with the damage caused by this process usually expressed in both the value of this land and the concomitant permanent reduction of agricultural output. However, in most cases these estimates have been based on rather highly aggregated values for both land values and production losses, generally taken from secondary data sources, and by applying rather heterogeneous methodological approaches that are often poorly described and documented. While this review might not yet be complete or exhaustive and therefore should be continued in the forthcoming missions, there seems to be ample evidence that most studies and assessments for their estimates have not taken into account the detailed cropping patterns, cropping intensities as well as location-specific yield levels for the most important crops as they can currently be found in the area most vulnerable to SLR, risks of inundation and salt water intrusion. In addition, estimating the associated losses in both financial and economic
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21 terms has hardly been based on a detailed analysis of the prevailing profitability of the most important crop and livestock production systems and representative farm-household models, which would also provide the basis for a more detailed and in-depth assessment of the potential socioeconomic impacts, such as employment and food security impacts. As requested in the ToR, it is therefore suggested to carry out a more detailed assessment of the expected negative impacts on irrigated agriculture. While the ToR of the international socioeconomics consultants and the national agronomy consultant are focussing to a very large extent on a more qualitative assessment (see table 1), it is also suggested here that these assessments should generally attempt to go beyond purely qualitative considerations and try to quantify these effects as much as possible. In the following sections, the consultant‟s proposals for the methodological approach to be adopted for assessing the impacts on agricultural production and farm income is briefly outlined. This methodological approach is based mainly on the following considerations and requirements: (1) there are only about 7 months left until project closure by the end of September 2012; (2) so far, the international socioeconomics consultant and the national agronomy consultant have not been recruited or are still to start their work, thus leaving some flexibility for reviewing and updating / adapting their specific ToR; (3) there is no doubt that it will not be feasible to engage in larger scale primary data collection activities such as extended farm or household surveys, given the substantial time inputs required for their preparation, field implementation and the subsequent data entry and analysis; (4) top priority should therefore be attached to using available secondary data sources to the extent possible, and to examine the opportunity and possibility of complementing such secondary data analysis by carrying out some specific case studies that might realistically be completed before project closure. Accordingly, the methodological approach might follow a step-wise procedure at different analytical levels, i.e. (i) Governorates; (ii) Districts (both administrative and irrigation / drainage); (iii) village; (iv) farms / households; (v) crop and livestock enterprises. 3.3.1 Collection and analysis of secondary data at Governorate level In a first step, the following parameters should be collected from the Agricultural Statistics Yearbook(s) for the 6 Governorates where the soil and water monitoring sites have been installed by SWERI (see figure 1) and which fall into the coastal area that is most prone to the risks of inundation and salt water intrusion (Alexandria; Beheira; Kafr-El-Sheikh; Dakaliah; Damietta; Port Said):  demographic and socio-demographic data (especially total and agricultural population);  total land area and land use;  agricultural land (old and new lands);  number of farms and average farm size;  importance of livestock (numbers and composition);
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22      cropped areas and cropping patterns by major crops and agricultural seasons; yields of major crops; inputs / production costs; net returns / farm income. etc..

It is suggested that this secondary data collection – in order to give a rather representative picture - should at least cover a time series of the last 5 years. Once these data have been compiled, a descriptive analysis should be carried in a next step, mainly with a view of identifying recent trends as well as the main factors that might explain the observed trends (if any), especially concerning cropping patterns, crop yields etc.. 3.3.2 Collection and analysis of secondary data at District level As far as possible, the same parameters listed in section 3.3.1 should then be collected from official MALR statistical records at the administrative District level, for the same time-series period. Accordingly, a list of the administrative Districts falling into the Nile Delta area that is mostly affected by SLR and salt water intrusion would have to be established. A map showing the administrative boundaries of the Districts corresponding to the project study area already delineated on the basis of digital elevation models has been prepared by the GIS unit of CLAC and is shown in figure 8 on the following page. If required, these District-level data might at a later stage be further disaggregated by using cooperative data which will however not cover the same set of parameters indicated above. As for the Governorate-level statistics, descriptive analyses would have to be done with the objective of identifying recent trends in the development especially of cropping patterns, crop yields as well as other key parameters, and for better understanding the main driving forces of irrigated agriculture in that particular area. In a next step, these District-level agricultural statistics should be complemented by collecting the most relevant irrigation and drainage data from MWRI (taking however into account that administrative District boundaries do generally not match with Irrigation / Drainage Districts). 3.3.3 Identification of representative farm-household models and crop budgets The analysis of the major agricultural statistical data on Governorate and District levels, together with supplementary information to be collected most notably on irrigation and drainage conditions in the study area, will provide the main basis for identifying representative farm and household models and for describing their main characteristics and dynamics. In this context, the most important stratification criteria will most probably include:      average farm size and location; socio-demographic parameters and labour use; irrigation and drainage conditions; cropping patterns and productivity levels; importance of livestock;

 importance of non-agricultural or off-farm employment and income.

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23

Figure 8:

Administrative Districts of the project study area

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24

Once the prevailing farm and household systems are identified and characterized, the analysis might be extended to also include an in-depth assessment of the productivity and profitability of the major crops and livestock activities, which would then allow calculating farm and household incomes for the representative models. A simple, EXCEL-based model is available with the international CC consultant, which has been specifically developed and designed for assessing the financial and economic impacts of different irrigation improvement projects in the Nile Delta area (IIP and IIIMP). A brief introduction to this model was given by the consultant during the workshop organized at CLAC on February 18, 2012, with the objective of presenting and discussing the preliminary mission findings. At this occasion, a copy of this model has been provided to CLAC and it was agreed that this model might be used as a first template and subsequently be adapted and amended to cater for the specific needs of assessing and simulating the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on agricultural production and farmers‟ income in the Nile Delta area. In this regard, it still needs to be decided whether these assessments and impact analyses should be restricted to financial analysis, thus concentrating on the effects from farmers‟ point of view; or whether a complete economic analysis from the society‟s point of view should be carried out. While the EXCEL model referred to above is generally designed for both financial and economic analysis, the latter would of course require a much higher time input for data collection and analysis. 3.3.4 Carrying out selected case studies As already indicated above, the assessments briefly described in the preceding sections might be usefully complemented by carrying out selected case studies. In this regard, the availability of relevant data that might be used for complementing the research activities initiated under the project should be seen the major selection criterion. Following the various work meetings and discussions that the consultant had in the course of his mission, there at present seem to be the following two opportunities for cooperating with other institutions on a case study basis: (1) During the meeting organized at ECRI on February 14, 2012, a recently started research project entitled „adaptation options to face CC scenarios for water and agriculture sectors‟ has been briefly presented. This research work started in January 2010 for a 3-year implementation period, with funding provided under the 7th EU Framework convention. The 2 Districts of Rashid and Edko in the Rosetta area have been selected for the project study area (thus also overlapping with some of the soil and water monitoring sites installed by SWERI; see figure 1). In conceptual terms, this research project is also looking at the potential impacts of SLR and sea water intrusion on agricultural production and farm income. Consequently, it would be very useful to organize as soon as possible a joint workshop, with the primary objective of discussing the methodological approaches that have been used so far and for exchanging / sharing available results. (2) At present, the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP) undoubtedly represents the most important MWRI activity in this subject area. As can be seen from figure 9 on the following page, the IIIMP intervention area is overlapping
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25 to a very extent with the network of soil and water monitoring sites established by SWERI under the project, especially in El Raml District of Alexandria and several other locations of Beheira and Kafr-El-Sheikh Governorates. IIIMP disposes of a rather detailed and elaborate impact M&E systems and a large amount of data has already been collected that might be of particular interest and high relevance for completing the soil and water monitoring activities initiated under the project. Again, it is suggested to hold a joint workshop with IIIMP with a view of discussing the detailed opportunities and possibilities of future cooperation in this field. 4 Conclusions and recommendations

The main conclusions and recommendations of this first in-country mission of the international CC consultant are briefly summarized as follows:  Project implementation has been substantially delayed, among others due to weaknesses in respecting the initial project organization and institutional arrangements to be made. For project implementation to be successful for the remainder of the initial project lifetime (only 7 months to go until the end of September 2012), especially ARC would have to assume a much more proactive role in overall project coordination and steering. In this context, it is of paramount importance to particularly improve coordination and cooperation with MWRI and its specialized research institutes under NWRC, with a view of exchanging relevant methodological experience and data and to complement the soil and water monitoring data collected by SWERI under the project. There is an urgent need to update the project‟s work plan for the remaining 7 months of project implementation and to proceed to a detailed planning and time schedule of the various consultant inputs that are still to be recruited and implemented. There is quite some evidence that the data currently collected and analysed by SWERI in the frame of the soil and water monitoring activities will not be sufficient for improving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR, saltwater intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity and that they will not allow to successfully proceed to the envisaged groundwater modelling and simulation activities, as long as these are not complemented by and correlated with other relevant data. Therefore, a workshop should be organized as soon as possible by ARC / CLAC with the following major objectives: (i) establish the conceptual framework required for ensuring that the best possible use can be made of the data collected by SWERI, based on a joint review and adaptation of the current research design and the proper identification of the additional data requirements (basic characteristics and dynamics of the prevailing aquifers, including deep water tables; irrigation and drainage conditions etc.); (ii) jointly discuss how the soil and water monitoring activities initiated under the project can be continued beyond project closure in September 2012,and (iii) adequately define the roles and responsibilities that will have to be assigned to the various stakeholders in this multi-disciplinary undertaking, including the drafting of a memorandum of understanding to be subsequently signed by MALR and MWRI.

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26 Figure 9: Intervention area of the Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP)

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27 

As far as the analysis of the impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on agricultural production in the Nile Delta area is concerned, it is suggested to entrust the national agronomy consultant as soon as possible with carrying out the collection and analysis of the secondary agricultural statistics at Governorate and District levels according to the general methodological approach advocated in this mission report. Given the fact that there is substantial overlap in their respective terms of reference, the national agronomy consultant and the international CC consultant will have to work as closely together as possible, thus requiring a regular exchange and communication. It is furthermore suggested, that the second mission of the international CC consultant should overlap as much as possible with the national agronomy consultant, thus requiring adequate coordination efforts at the level of ARC / CLAC. There is also substantial overlap in the specific tasks assigned to international CC consultant, the national agronomy consultant and the international socioeconomics consultant. As far as the latter is concerned, no recruitment has taken place as of now. In this context, it is suggested to carefully examine the opportunity of shifting the subject and focus of the second international consultant from socio-economics to hydrology and / or hydrogeology. If properly implemented and coordinated, the missions of the international CC consultant and the national agronomy consultant should suffice for effectively carrying out the required impact analyses on agricultural production as well as other socio-economic effects. On the other hand, there might be a need and opportunity for reinforcing the specific knowledge and experience relating to the interdependency of SLR, sea water intrusion and groundwater dynamics, with a view of complementing the national capacity that is currently existing in this field. As much as possible, the initial time schedule for the second in-country mission of the international CC consultant should be maintained, i.e. a mission of 2 to 3 weeks in late April or early May 2012. As indicated above, this second mission should overlap with the inputs of the national agronomy consultant and accordingly, his effectively availability during the indicated period would have to be confirmed.

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28 Annex 1 MISSION ITINERARY International Consultant: Climate Change Expert February 11 – 24, 2012 Saturday Sunday Feb 11, 2012 Feb 12, 2012     Travel Göttingen – Frankfurt by train ; Flight Frankfurt – Cairo and transfer to hotel (Marriott Zamalek); Kick-off meeting at FAO Regional Office Cairo with Mr. Moujahed Achouri (FAO Representative Egypt) and Dr. Mohamed El-Ansary (Assistant FAO Representative Egypt); Meetings at the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) with Dr. Mosaad Kotb Hassanein, Director CLAC and National Project Coordinator (NPC); Dr. Mohamed Abul-Soud Mohamed; discussion of work program; data and report collection; Meeting with Mrs. Claudia Buerkin, German Development Cooperation (KfW Cairo Office), Water Sector Coordinator; Meeting with Mr. Paul Weber, German Development Cooperation (GIZ), former Chief Technical Adviser On-Farm Water Management Project; Analysis of reports and project documents; Meeting at FAO Regional Office Cairo with Dr. Mohamed ElAnsary; Meeting at the Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute (SWERI): Dr. Hamdy El-Houssainy Khalifa, Dr. Mohamed Ismail and Dr. Rafak Kamel; Analysis of reports and project documents; Meeting at the Environment and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI) at El-Qanater; Prof. Ahmed Hassan Fahmi, Director, and research staff; Meeting at the Drainage Research Institute (ECRI) at El-Qanater; Prof. Alaa A. Abdel-Motaleb, Director; Analysis of project documents; Field visit to Kafr-el-Sheikh Governorate: meeting with SWERI staff at the Sakha Agricultural Research Station; discussion of ongoing soil and water monitoring by SWERI; visit of monitoring sites in the command area of Meet Yazeed main canal; Analysis of project documents; Meeting at FAO Regional Office Cairo with Dr. Mohamed ElAnsary; Meeting at CLAC with Dr. Mohamed Abul-Soud Mohamed; Meeting at CLAC with Dr. Mosaad Kotb Hassanein, Director CLAC /NPC; Dr. Matthias Bartels and Dr. Gerhard Lichtenthaeler (Project Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector in MENA Region, GIZ); Analysis of project documents;

         

Monday

Feb 13, 2012

Tuesday

Feb 14, 2012

Wednesday Feb 15, 2012

Thursday

Feb 16, 2012

   

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29 Friday Feb 17, 2012              Analysis of project documents; Preparation of workshop / presentation on preliminary mission findings; Workshop / presentation and discussion of preliminary mission findings at CLAC; Analysis of project documents; Meeting with Mrs. Dr. Ariane Borgstedt, Program Coordinator, Water Management Reform Program (WMRP), GIZ, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI); Meeting with Mr. Wicher Boissevain, Chief Technical Adviser, Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP), MWRI; Different meetings at CLAC; Analysis of project documents; Meeting at FAO Regional Office Cairo with Mr. Moujahed Achouri (FAO Representative Egypt) and Dr. Mohamed ElAnsary; Meeting at CLAC with Prof. Mohamed El Raey, national consultant CC (Alexandria University); Analysis of project documents; Meeting at the Coastal Research Institute (CORI), Alexandria with Prof. Ibrahim Abd ElMagid El Shinnawy, Director; Meeting at CORI with Mr. Mohamed Aly Borhan, Project Manager, Adaptation of the Nile Delta to Climate Changes and Sea Level Rise through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project; Analysis of project documents; Meeting at SWERI: Dr. Mohamed Ismail; Different meetings at CLAC; Analysis of project documents and report writing; Debriefing meeting at FAO Regional Office Cairo with Mr. Moujahed Achouri (FAO Representative Egypt) and Dr. Mohamed El-Ansary (Assistant FAO Representative Egypt); Meeting at the National Authority for Remote Sensing at Space Sciences (NARSS): Prof. Mahmoud H. M. Ahmed, Head Marine Science Department (national consultant GIS); Debriefing meeting at CLAC with Dr. Mosaad Kotb Hassanein, Director/NPC; Flight Cairo – Frankfurt; Travel Frankfurt – Göttingen by train.

Saturday

Feb 18, 2012

Sunday

Feb 19, 2012

Monday

Feb 20, 2012

Tuesday

Feb 21, 2012

Wednesday Feb 22, 2012

Thursday

Feb 23, 2012

      

Friday

Feb 24, 2012

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30 Annex 2 LIST OF PERSONS MET FAO Regional Office Cairo Mr. Moujahed Achouri, FAO Representative Egypt, Deputy Regional Representative for the Near East, Head of Multidisciplinary Team for the Near East Dr. Mohamed El-Ansary, Assistant FAO Representative Egypt Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) Dr. Mosaad Kotb Hassanein, Director, National Project Coordinator (NPC) Dr. Mohamed Abul-Soud Mohamed, Researcher Dr. Mohamed Abdrabou, Head of Agricultural Meteorological Department Dr. Ahmed Awny Ahmed Farag, Researcher, GIS Department Dr. Mohamed Heggi Mr. Assem Abdelmonem Ahmed, Researcher Mr. Hany Hassan, Researcher Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute (SWERI) Dr. Hamdy El-Houssainy Khalifa, former Director Dr. Mohamed Ismail, Head of Remote Sensing and GIS Unit Dr. Rafak Kamel Dr. Abdalla Ahmed Mohamedin Dr. Antar Shabaah Mohamed Antur, Researcher, SWERI / Sakha Dr. Mohamed Abd Allah, Head of Research, SWERI / Sakha Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Saad Kheir, Assistant Researcher, SWERI / Sakha Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) Prof. Ibrahim Abd El Magid El Shinnawy, Director, Coastal Research Institute (CORI), Alexandria, national consultant hydrology Mrs. Hala Abayazid, Head of Technical Office, Coastal Research Institute (CORI), Alexandria Mr. Mohamed Aly Borhan, Project Manager, Adaptation of the Nile Delta to Climate Changes and Sea Level Rise through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project, Coastal Research Institute (CORI), Alexandria Prof. Ahmed Hassan Fahmi, Director, Environment and Climate Change Research Institute (ECRI) Prof. Alaa A. Abdel-Motaleb, Director, Drainage Research Institute (ECRI) Mr. Wicher Boissevain, Chief Technical Advisor, Integrated Irrigation Improvement and Management Project (IIIMP)

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31 Other key resource persons Prof. Mohamed El Raey, Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, Centre for Climate Change and Risk Reduction, University of Alexandria, national consultant CC Prof. Mahmoud H. M. Ahmed, Head Marine Science Department, National Authority for Remote Sensing at Space Sciences (NARSS); national consultant GIS German Development Cooperation Mrs. Claudia Buerkin, KfW Entwicklungsbank, Cairo Office, Water Sector Coordinator Mr. Paul Weber, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), former Chief Technical Advisor On-Farm Water Management Project Dr. Matthias Bartels, Programme Coordinator, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector in MENA Region (ACCWM), GIZ Dr. Gerhard Lichtenthaeler, Advisor, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector in MENA Region (ACCWM), GIZ Mrs. Dr. Ariane Borgstedt, Program Coordinator, Water Management Reform Program (WMRP), GIZ, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI);

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32 Annex 3 Climate change risk monitoring of sea level rise on groundwater and agricultural impacts in the Nile delta Logical Framework
Design Summary Impact: Indicators / Targets
(by End of Project unless otherwise stated)

Data Sources

Assumptions

Likely impacts and mitigation/adaptation measures of climate change (CC) on agricultural production and the environment along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta known.

1. Increased knowledge of CC impacts, mitigation and adaptation measures

Technical reports

Final 2. Basis of a modern integrated statement of national network for the project monitoring CC impacts on agriculture (a sub-program of the National Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030) established 1. Better knowledge of impacts of SLR (as a result of CC) on the: a. Groundwater level b. Soil and groundwater quality degradation Progress reports Technical report

Continuous or enhancing political priority on CC issues in Egypt.

Outcome:

A comprehensive monitoring system able to generate sound forecasts of SLR impacts resulting from CC on soil and groundwater in the Nile Delta to serve as a decision-support (information) system for mitigating/adapting such impacts on the environment, agriculture and population

2. Sufficient coordination among relevant national agencies and institutes. 3. Appropriate political support and institutional commitment to implement the project.

Final statement of 2. The CC impacts monitoring the project network established along the coastal area of the Nile Delta. 3. Simulation of the likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization conducted. 4. Groundwater model and soil model calibrated and validated for local conditions.

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Outputs: 1. CC impact monitoring sites identified. 1.1 Review all pervious work done Progress on sea level changes, reports groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta. 1.2 Selection of representative pilot area along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta 1.3 Monitoring sites and network installation points selected by month 5 2.1 CC impacts monitoring network Progress installed and functional by reports month 5 5. No sudden catastrophic climatic and environmental impacts in the coastal area of the Nile Delta.

2. CC impact monitoring network installed, checked and georeferenced.

3. Likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwater quality known.

3.1 Collected data analyzed and interpreted 3.2 Groundwater model and soil model that simulate seawater intrusion due to SLR calibrated and validated 3.3 Simulation of the likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization conducted 3.4 Modeling likely future CC impact scenarios 3.5 Economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of CC impacts, particularly changes in soil and groundwater due to SLR

Progress reports Technical report

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4. Action oriented information system for managing monitoring information established. 4.1 Project website for CC impacts and adaptation information sharing and awareness raising to be established 4.2 High level awareness of the CC impacts among decision-makers and national staff established through dissemination workshops Progress reports Technical report Final statement of the project

Indicative activities 0.1. Establishment of the institutional framework.
1.1 Knowledge base study on SLR changes, groundwater table, and salinization of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta 1.2 Selecting representative pilot area 1.3 Monitoring sites and network installation points selection 2.1 Network installed, checked, and georeferenced 2.2 Monitoring and data collection 3.1 Data analysis and interpretation 3.2 Calibration and validation of groundwater model and soil model that simulate seawater intrusion due to SLR, and also conduct study/forecast of CC impacts on agriculture in the Nile Delta 3.3 Simulate likely

Inter institutional steering committee set up before project implementation. 1.1 Completed by month 2 (review all the pervious work done). 1.2 Completed by month 3

Inception report Progress reports

1.3 A total of 75 monitoring sites will be selected by month 4

2.1 Completed by end of month 5 2.2 Observation data (parameters: groundwater tables, and soil and groundwater salinity) will be collected during month 6 to15 3.1 Soil and groundwater data and other collected data analyzed during month 7 to 16 3.2 Undertaken during month 7 to 16. 3.3 Undertaken during month 8 to 17. Consider scenarios of potential local SLR ranges and assess possible changes in groundwater table and salinity resulting from the above scenarios.

Progress reports

Progress reports Technical report

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impacts of SLR on groundwater table and soil and groundwater salinization 3.4 Modeling likely future CC impact scenarios 3.5 Economic and agronomic impacts/adaptation analysis of CC impacts, particularly changes in soil and groundwater due to SLR 4.1 Develop and maintain a 4.1 web-site to facilitate access to information 4.2 on the impacts of CC along the coastal area 4.3 of the Nile Delta. 4.2. Preparation of the technical report on likely impacts and adaptation measures of climate change (CC) along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta. 4.3 Hold dissemination workshops to technical national staff, government policy makers, extension agents, farmers and NGOs. Completed by month 21. Completed by month 21 Undertaken during month 23 to 24 (1 day workshops x 4 times for technical national staff, extension agents, farmers and NGOs; 1 day workshop for policy makers) Technical report Final statement of the project Progress reports 3.4 Completed by month 19 3.5 Completed by month 20

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36 Annex 4 BIBLIOGRAPHY
1)

Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheeler, J. Yan (February 2007), The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4136. Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, S. Murray, D. Wheeler, J. Yan (April 2009), Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges. A Comparative Analysis of Impacts in Developing Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4901. Elsharkawy H., Rashed H., & Rached I. (2009), Climate Change: The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Egypt. The impacts of SLR on Egypt, 45th ISOCARP Congress 2009. Hossain, M.A. (2010), Global Warming induced Sea Level Rise on Soil, Land and Crop Production Loss in Bangladesh. Hallegatte, S. (..), A framework to investigate the economic growth impact of sea level rise. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Response Strategies Working Group (November 1990), Report of the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup. Strategies for adaption to sea level rise. OECD/ENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATE/ENVIRONMENT POLICY COMMITTEE (2004), Working Party on Global and Structural Policies Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment. Development and climate change in Egypt. Focus on coastal resources and the Nile. Titus, J. G. (April 1990), Greenhouse Effect, Sea level Rise, and Land Use. In: Land Use Policy. Vol. 7, issue 2, 1990, pp 138-153. UN/Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)/Division for Sustainable Development (December 2004), Final report. Regional workshop on national sustainable development strategies and indicators of sustainable development for the Arab Region. Wageningen UR / Centre for Development Innovation (March 2011), Opportunities to broaden bilateral relations between Egypt and the Netherlands in the areas of water management and agriculture. A Scoping Exercise. Final Report. March 2011 Government documents Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (June 1999), The Arab Republic of Egypt: Initial National Communication on Climate Change. Prepared for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (May 2010), Egypt: Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on Climate Change.
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Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (December 2001), The National Environmental Action Plan of Egypt 2002/17. Environment at the center for modernizing Egypt. Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency / Climate Change Central Department (April 2010), Egypt National Environmental, Economic and Development Study (NEEDS) for Climate Change. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on Climate Change. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (2009), Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030.

1) This bibliography is preliminary and shall be completed and updated in the course of the forthcoming missions.

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