You are on page 1of 29

Running Title: Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Highlands

Comparison of Land Use and Land Cover Changes, Drivers and Impacts for a Moisture-Sufficient and a Drought-Prone Region in the Ethiopian Highlands

Hussien O. Ali1,2 , Katrien Descheemaeker3, Tammo S. Steenhuis.1, 4,,5, Suraj Pandey6


9
1

Graduate student, Cornell-Bahir Dar Masters program in Integrated Watershed

Management & Hydrology, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia


12
2

currently at: Jimma University, College of Agriculture & Veterinary Medicines,

P.O.Box-307, Jimma, Ethiopia


3

International Livestock Research Institute & International Water management

15

Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia


4

Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York,

USA
18
5

School of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar University, Bahir

Dar, Ethiopia
6

International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT),

21

Bulawayo, Zimbabwe Corresponding author: hussien.ali@ju.edu.et


1

ABSTRACT Land use and land cover changes are driven by human actions and, in turn, drive
3

changes that alter the availability of products and services for people and livestock. For proper planning, these cause-and effect interrelations need to be understood. This especially important for Ethiopia where the resource base is

declining and should be improved in order to feed its growing population. To better understand these interrelations, we studied trends in the natural resource base over a 35 year period for two contrasting sites in the Ethiopian Highlands:

semiarid and water-short Lenche Dima (LD), and semi -humid and moisturesufficient Kuhar Michael (KM). Information was obtained using time-series satellite images, GPS, a socio-economic survey, and a document review.

12

Results showed that for semi arid Lenche Dima there were minimal changes in land use and land cover patterns, while in water-sufficient Kuhar Michael cropland greatly increased at the expense of the grazing land and bare soil. At

15

the same time land holding size and cattle numbers decreased in Lenche Dima while they remained the same in Kuhar Michael, although overall land holdings remained larger in Lenche Dima than in Kuhar Michael. This study thus found

18

large differences in development of agriculture since the 1970s: intensification of agriculture is possible in the water-sufficient semi humid climate by displacing animal husbandry with high value crops that need irrigation during the dry

21

monsoon season. This is not possible for the semi-arid area where water is the limiting factor in production even if a market is close by. Agriculture in the semiarid areas also requires larger land holdings because of the risk of droughts

24

and low yields during some years. This comparative analysis confirms that without sufficient water, the shift from subsistent to commercial market-driven agriculture cannot be accomplished.

27

INTRODUCTION Land use and land cover dynamics are widespread, driven by human actions but,
3

in turn, they also produce changes that impact humans (Agarwal et al., 2002) and alter the availability of different biophysical resources including water, soil, vegetation and animal feed. Ethiopia is at a crossroad and needs to improve its

biophysical resources in order to feed its growing population. Currently in Ethiopia less than 2.5% of the country is forested (EFAP, 1994). Food needs by a growing population will lead to a continual conversion of communally owned

grazing and shrub to cultivated lands. According to IUCN (1990), per capita land holdings in Ethiopia will decline from an average of 1.76 ha in 1985 to 0.66 ha in the year 2015. Less 5% of the water in rivers is used within Ethiopia (Steenhuis

12

et al, 2009) but it is expected that water use (mainly for irrigation) will increase in the future (CA, 2007). Moreover, soil loss is severe and most soil originates from erosion of a small portion of the landscape (Berhe, 2007).The few policies that

15

existed to stop the accelerating rate of land degradation were poorly enacted because institutions involved in land-related policies changed frequently. Three different governments have been in power in Ethiopia since 1972, and the

18

policies implemented by each have directly affected land use. Before 1974, the relationship between land users and owners was based on a feudal system (Desta et al., 2000) under which the ownership of land was limited to a few

21

individuals, and most inhabitants could access farmland only through share cropping. The population density was relatively low, and fallow land was common. During the 17 year of Dergs governance that followed the feudal

24

system, individuals were entitled to own and manage land.

The regime

rehabilitated degraded land and protected vegetated areas, and encroachment into communal holdings was minimal. Despite changes being made, a state of
3

unfair distribution evolved and land redistribution was undertaken in the early 1990s when EPRDF first came to power in some parts of Ethiopia. Sources of
3

land for the redistribution included those parcels whose owners passed away, illegally-owned parcels, shrub lands, abandoned land and communal holdings. In Amhara regional state, where mixed crop-livestock farming is the main

economic activity, biophysical resources are declining similar to others parts of Ethiopia (Mwendera et al., 1997). As a result, livestock productivity has declined due to water shortage, weed infestation, dry season feed shortage, shortage of

grazing lands, poor marketing conditions, and diseases (Gizaw et al., 1999). To turn around this declining productivity better strategies are needed to increase agricultural productivity, especially water-use efficiency for food production management and other agricultural measures

12

through

better

livestock

(Harrington et al., 2004). However, the bottleneck in developing these strategies is the limited knowledge of the effect of altering land use on productivity and
15

water needs, since only very few studies have been carried out in Amhara. In order to fill this gap, this study aimed to identify and compare changes in land use and land cover, their drivers and impacts over a 30 year period in two

18

contrasting (semiarid vs. semi-humid) areas climatic zones of Amhara. The selected sites were the semi-humid Kuhar Michael (KM) watershed located in the Fogera plain near Bahir Dar, and the semiarid Lenche Dima (LD) watershed near

21

Woldia which has low and unreliable rainfall and dry spells and thus very limited potential for irrigation agriculture. In contrast, irrigation is possible in Kuhar Michael from either groundwater or diversions of the Gumera, allowing

24

production of up to three crops per year.

MATERIALS AND METHODS


3

Study Areas The Kuhar Michael watershed is located at the southern border of Fogera district (Figure 1) with coordinates extending from 1150'37" to 1153'37" N and from

3738'10" to 3742'17"E. It is located within the upper Blue Nile basin and covers an estimated area of about 2755 ha. Annual rainfall is just over 1200 mm, and its altitude ranges from 1792 to 1959 m. The Lenche Dima watershed forms part of

Laste Gerado peasant association in Gubalafto district (Figure 1) and is located about 20 km away from Woldia, capital of North Wollo zone in the Awash basin,. Geographically, the watershed extends from 1149'13" to 1151'57" N and from

12

3940'07" to 3944'22" E and its altitude ranges between 1520 to 1890 m. Annual rainfall in Lenche Dima is around 800 mm/year (Liu et al. 2006). Field survey and Data Collection

15

A socio-economic survey was conducted from August 2009 to November 2009, consisting of interviews of selected households and group discussion to generate information on household-level changes in land and livestock holdings, and to

18

gain insight into various political, social, and environmental factors that influence decisions on land use and land cover at the household and landscape level. Detailed individual interviews and group discussions were conducted with a total

21

of 50 selected key informants from both study areas (Table 1). A purposive sampling technique was used to select the participants through consultation with development agents, which involved the targeting of individuals who suited the

24

subject and nature of study using predetermined selection criteria. A questionnaire covering a wide range of topics relevant to the central issue of
5

interest was developed and pre-tested to evaluate the understandability of the questions, with modifications made accordingly. The time horizon considered for
3

the socio-economic study matched to the period for which satellite images were available starting in 1972. Satellite Images

Three LANDSAT and one ASTER satellite images covering the period from 1972 to 2005 were acquired for both locations (Table 2). In addition to aid in the analysis of the images, type of land use or cover, percent ground cover of

grassland and shrub lands, degree of degradation, past use pattern of selected communal holdings were collected for 340 Ground Control Points (GCPs), with locations determined with GPS.

12

Image calibration of the LANDSAT (MSS, TM and ETM+) was accomplished through an automated built-in operator within the ENVI interface. The ASTER image was geo-referenced using GCPs. (Smith 2008; Mather, 2004). For layer

15

stacking, projection was made using the Universal Traverse Mercator (UTM) system with WGS84. All four bands of MSS and five bands of TM and ETM+, excluding the thermal band, were included during layer stacking.

18

The 2005 Fall ASTER image was the most recent image available for the study areas and served as a reference image. Using the collected GCPs, a supervised land cover classification (Table 3) was performed. The user and producers

21

accuracy was reasonable, but as expected there was some difficulty with separating grass and open shrub land covers (Table 4). For the three LANDSAT images (MSS, TM and ETM+), unsupervised classification was used. An effort

24

was made to integrate the historical information acquired from the surveys. As such, the image quality was improved by unraveling the spectral similarity of
6

different land cover types. More detailed information of the image processing steps is given in Ali (2009).
3

RESULTS Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics


6

Kuhar Michael: Analysis of the 1973 satellite image reveals that there was 31% cropland, 22% grassland (Figures 2a and 4a) in the Kuhar Michael site. The remaining landscape consisted of shrub land and bare soils, mostly on the

steeper parts of the landscape. Twelve percent of the area was a wetland. The 1985 satellite image (Figures 2b and 4a), found that cropland expanded to 54% mainly at the expense of grassland (14% coverage) and bare soil (2%). In

12

addition, the wetlands had disappeared in the November 1985 image, possibly due to drying up after the major rainy season had below average rainfall (McHugh et al. 2007). The sum of the dense shrub and open shrub/bush cover

15

remained nearly constant (Figure 2b, and 4a).

Analysis of the October 1999 image indicated that the same trend continued from
18

1985 to 1999 (Figures 2c and 4a). Cultivated (crop) land comprised 62% of the landscape, and grassland decreased to 9%. Wetlands appeared again, covering 9% of the area. Bare soil disappeared and shrub lands stayed approximately the

21

same, although a switch occurred between the dense and open shrub cover. Finally, the 2005 image found a slight decrease in cultivated land to 57%, but the difference from the 1999 image was within measurement error (Figures 2d and

24

4a).

Lenche Dima: In the 1972 image (Figures 3a and 4b), cultivated (crop) land compromised 43% of the Lenche Dima site, and 16% was in grassland. The
3

remaining 40% consisted of open and dense shrubs. In 1986 (Figures 3b and 4b), cropland increased to 52 %, while both dense and open shrub lands declined and grassland remained the nearly the same. In 2000, contrary to the

trend observed in Kuhar Michael, cultivated land in Lenche Dima declined to 48% (Figure 3c and 4b), likely the result of the expansion of large gullies that were prevalent in the area in 2000. Grassland remained unchanged and open

shrub/bush land increased in coverage from 17% to 22% in 2000. In 2005, cultivated land decreased further to about 36% with the shrub land increasing in extent (Figures 3d and 4b).

12

Trends. The main difference between the study sites was that cultivated land
15

area nearly doubled from 1973 to 2005 (Figure 4a) in moisture-sufficient Kuhar Michael, while in drought-prone Lenche Dima the cropped area slightly decreased over the same period (Figure 4b). The opposite trend was true for

18

grassland which decreased in Kuhar Michael while slightly increasing in Lenche Dima. Bare land decreased in Kuhar Michael as well. The sum of the dense and open brush land remained nearly the same over the study period in both

21

watersheds.

In Lenche Dima the land use changes were minimal, the initial increase in
24

cropland (Figure 4b) was likely the result of the regime change, and the continuous decline in area after 1985 was due in part to soil erosion (Gizaw et al., 1999).

The increase in cropland in Kuhar Michael can be explained as follows. Historically, in the feudal system most of the Fogera plain, which includes the
3

lower part of Kuhar Michael, served as a grazing land and as a place for maintaining animals for longer time. The wetlands in the 1973 Kuhar Michael image was used as both grazing areas and homes for livestock. Subsequently,

following the Dergs efforts to improve the agricultural sector, through the establishment of cooperatives, and the cultivation of cash crops in the marshy plains, these areas were converted into cultivated lands. Following the

introduction of rice around 1995 (Descheemaeker, 2008), rice cultivation has grown to be an attractive business.

12

Other studies corroborate our findings for Kuhar Michael. Yitaferu (2007) showed that cropland increased and grass land decreased in the Lake Tana basin, but not as dramatically as in the Kuhar Michael site. The increase in cropland was

15

also confirmed by the respondents who mentioned that the land conversion was caused by the high numbers of the youths looking for land because no employment opportunities outside agriculture were available. Triggered by the

18

recent shortage of land, Kuhar Michael Church is renting out about 8 ha land to landless youngsters.

21

According to the respondents, the animal feed shortage in Kuhar Michael due the decreasing area in grassland has been made up by using crop byproducts including millet and rice straw, that are mainly fed between January to July when

24

other food resources are scarce. Following crop harvest from October to January, animals graze freely on the non-irrigated land.

Land holding size The socio-economic survey found that during the last thirty years the size of total
3

land holdings per household in Kuhar Michael remained around 1.5 ha (Table 1). There was a slight decline for irrigated land from 0.45 ha to 0.37 ha and from 0.79 ha to 0.63 ha for non-irrigated lands. Some of the non-irrigated land has

been converted to eucalyptus (Table 1) to provide wood for the rapidlydeveloping nearby Bahir Dar.

Despite a large decrease in acreage per household from almost 3 ha to just over 2 ha, the land holdings in Lenche Dima both now and 30 years ago are larger than in Kuhar Michael, most likely because the minimum land needed for feeding

12

a family in a drought-prone area is larger than where the rainfall is more reliable for producing a crop each year (Table 1). The average size of cultivated land decreased from 2.2 ha to 1.2 ha (Table 10). As the result of a medium-scale

15

irrigation scheme established in 1991 by CoSAERAR (Commission for Sustainable Agriculture and Environment Rehabilitation for Amhara Region), irrigated land size has increased from 0.22 ha to 0.49 ha (Bekele, 2008).

18

However, discussions with district officials revealed that farmers have not yet fully exploited the potential of the irrigation scheme.

21

Land holding sizes are affected by gully erosion which is most severe in Lenche Dima, where it has taken 0.02 ha per household out of production (Table 1), representing approximately 3% of rainfed cultivated land Although unsustainable

24

and improper land use and land cover changes are commonly blamed for land degradation and gully formation (Bossio et al. 2007 cited in Descheemaeker et al., 2009), it is much more likely that a rise in groundwater due to land use
10

changes caused the 10-20 m wide gully in the flatter part of the landscape (Tebebu et al., 2010).
3

Livestock Livestock plays a critical role for supporting communities involved in the mixed
6

crop-livestock production system through a range of products and services. Respondents were asked about number of cattle, small ruminants and pack animals over the 30 year period (Table 5, Figure 5)

Since livestock serve as bank reserve offering an alternative income source in the face of uncertain crop production (Descheemaeker, 2006), in drought-prone
12

Lenche Dima the total number of animals per household was, as expected, almost twice that in Kuhar Michael. The main difference between the two sites is that over the study period there were on average nearly six small ruminants

15

(mainly goats and some sheep) per household in Lenche Dima compared to less than one in Kuhar Michael (Table 5 and Figure 5c). There were 8 small ruminants five years ago in Lenche Dima, but this level decreased because

18

almost half of the farmers sold all goats following the closure of hillsides. This is a disadvantage of the exclosures since, according to CEDEP (Desta et al., 2000) sale of goats accounts for about 40% of cash income from livestock even though

21

it represents only 10% of farm capital invested in livestock. Some of the loss of income due to exclusures is made up by a grass cut-and-carry system.

24

In both study sites, the number of cattle remained nearly constant over the 30 year period at circa five cattle per household (Table 5 and Figure 5a). Since the grazing land has declined over the same period (Figure 4), similar to the rest of
11

the country, crop residues and hay from exclosures are being used as feed (Amede et al., 2005).
3

Pack animals increased sharply during the last thirty years in both study areas (Figure 5b) because of a growing need for transportation during distribution of
6

food aid, crop harvest, and market days. Camels can withstand the water and feed shortages that accompany droughts, are able to carry heavy loads and enable owners to offer rental service.

DISCUSSION

12

Remote sensing analysis confirmed by the interviews showed an increase in cultivated crop land at the expense of both grass and bare land in Kuhar Michael (Figure 4a) while a clear trend in land use could not be discerned from the

15

images for Lenche Dima (Figure 4b). Personal interviews also showed that the use of inorganic fertilizers in Kuhar Michael is now common while in Lenche Dima traditional organic fertilizers are still being applied. Furthermore, household

18

land holdings have declined especially in Lenche Dima (Table 1). With access to irrigation water in water-sufficient Kuhar Michael, more and more of the land (including the grassland) is used for new crops like rice, onion and tomato, which

21

has, in turn, contributed significantly towards improved household incomes. However, in Lenche Dima, it has not been possible to make the change to growing cash crops because the return on the investment is too risky when

24

rainfall is unreliable (Gizaw et al., 1999) leading to limited production potential.

12

The socio-economic survey showed that the land holdings and livestock numbers for each household were greater in the water-short Lenche Dima than in Kuhar
3

Michael (Table 1), most likely as a risk avoidance measure due to the uncertainty of crop production with limited and variable rainfall. The reason for only a slight decrease in land holdings in Kuhar Michael (vs. the larger decreases for Lenche

Dima) is not known, but is likely that there is both sufficient alternate offsite employment in Kuhar Michael (as a consequence of the extra income earned with cash crops) for family members who would otherwise be inheriting and

subdividing the land, and that smaller farm sizes would not be economical.

CONCLUSIONS
12

Temporal land use and land cover patterns and socio economic factors since 1972 for the drought-prone moisture-deficient Lenche Dima site near Woldya and
15

for the semi-humid moisture sufficient Kuhar Michael site near Bahir Dar showed markedly different trends. In Lenche Dima little progress was made since 1972: although land use patterns showed little change, the size of land holdings per

18

household and number of large ruminants decreased significantly. If any of the people are less well off today than 35 years ago it is because the same (or even a diminishing) resource base has to be shared by more people. In contrast, the

21

land use in Kuhar Michael has changed greatly, with grass land converted to agricultural land that could be triple cropped with the aid of irrigation and inorganic fertilizers. The size of land holdings in Kuhar Michael remained nearly

24

the same because alternative employment was available.

13

This study confirms that the availability of sufficient water is a key ingredient for agriculture to make the transition to from subsistence farming to commercial
3

farming. Although other factors such as market access, extension and commercial fertilizers are important, it cannot accomplished if the water is not available.

Acknowledgments. Financial and logistic support to conduct this study was


9

provided from the International water Management Institute (IWMI) and International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) under a joint project entitled Crop-livestock water productivity improvement in sub-Saharan Africa and these

12

institutions are highly acknowledged for their support. Additional funding was provided by DIF funding to Bahir Dar University and by the generous contribution of anonymous donors to Cornell University

15

14

REFERENCES Agarwal, C., Green, G. M., Grove, J. M., Evans, T. P., and Schweik, C. M. (2002). A Review and Assessment of Land-Use Change Models: Dynamics of Space, Time, and Human Choice. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station General Technical Report NE-297 61 pp. Ali, H. (2009). Land use and land cover change, drivers and its impact: A comparative study from Kuhar Michael and Lenche Dima of Blue Nile and Awash Basins of Ethiopia. MPS thesis, Cornell University, USA. http://soilandwater.bee.cornell.edu/Research/international/ethiopia4.htm Amede, T., Mengistu S., and Roothaert R. (2005). Intensification of Livestock Feed Production in Ethiopian Highlands: Potential and Experiences of the African Highlands Initiative. Paper presented at the 19th EVA Annual conference, 8 June 2005, ECA, Addis Ababa. Bekele, M. (2008). Integrating Livestock Production into Water Resources Development: Assessment on Livelihood Resilience and Livestock Water Productivity at Alewuha and Golina Rivers. M.Sc. Thesis. Awassa, Hawassa University, Ethiopia. Berhe, K., (2004). Land use and land cover changes in the central highlands of Ethiopia: the case of Yerer Mountain and its surroundings. MSc thesis, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Bossio, D., Critchley, W., Geheb, K.; van Lynden, G., Mati, B. (2007). Conserving land protecting water. In Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 551-583. Earthscan, and Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. London, UK. CA (2007). Water for Food, water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Earthscan, London, UK and International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Descheemaeker, K. (2006). Pedological and hydrological effects of vegetation restoration in exclosures established on degraded hillslopes in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia. PhD thesis, K.U.Leuven, Belgium, 364p Descheemaeker, K., 2008. Baseline data report for the Ethiopian study sites: Fogera: Quhar Michael and Gubalafto: Lenche Dima. BMZ project in Improving
15

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

Water Productivity of Crop-Livestock Systems of Sub-Saharan Africa. International Water Management Institute and International Livestock Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Desta, L., Kassie, M., Benin, S., and Pender, J. (2000). Land degradation and strategies for sustainable development in the Ethiopian highlands: Amhara Region. Socio-economics and policy research working paper 32. International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.122 pp. EFAP (Ethiopian Forestry Action Program). 1994. Ethiopian Forestry Action Program, Vol. (2). The Challenge for Development. Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection, Addis Ababa. Gizaw, S., Mekonnen, K., Desta, L. (1999). Lenche Dima Integrated Watershed Development Project Feasibility Study Report. Amhara National Regional State, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. Harrington, L.W., Gichuki, F., Gaheb, K., and Woolley, J. (2004). Changing the way we managed water for food, livelihoods health and the environment. CGIAR challenge program on Water and food. IUCN (1990). Ethiopian National Conservation Strategy. Phase I Report. International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Liu B.M., Abebe Y., McHugh O.V. Collick, A.S , Gebrekidan B. and. Steenhuis, T.S. 2008 Overcoming limited information through participatory watershed. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33: 13-21. Mather, P. M. (2004). Computer Processing of Remotely-Sensed Images: an Introduction, 3rd Edition. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, England.

12

15

18

21

24

27

McHugh, O. V., A. N. McHugh, P. M. Eloundou-Enyegue and T. S. Steenhuis. 2007. Integrated Qualitative Assessment of Wetland Hydrological and Land Cover Changes in a Data Scarce Dry Ethiopian Highland Watershed. Land Degrad. Develop. 18: 116 DOI: 10.1002/ldr.803 bb Mwendera, E. J., Mohamed Saleem, M. A., and Dibabe, A. (1997). The effect of livestock grazing on surface runoff and soil erosion from sloping pasture lands in the Ethiopian highlands. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 37:421 430. Smith, A.M.S. (2008). How to convert ASTER radiance values to reflectance: an online guide. University of Idaho, USA.
16

30

33

(http://www.cnrhome.uidaho.edu/default.aspx?pid=85984, Accessed on July 25, 2010)


3

Steenhuis T.S., Collick A.S., Easton Z.M., Leggesse E.S., Bayabil H.K., White E.D., Awulachew S.B., Adgo E., Ahmed A.A. 2009. Predicting Discharge and Erosion for the Abay (Blue Nile) with a Simple Model. Hydrological Processes Tebebu T.Y, Abiy A.Z., Zegeye A.D., Dahlke H.E., Tilahun S.A., Collick A.S., Easton Z.E, Kidnau S., Semu Moges S., Dadgari F. Steenhuis TS. (2010). Surface and Subsurface Flow Effects on Permanent Gully Formation and Upland Erosion near Lake Tana in the Northern Highlands Of Ethiopia. Hess Discussion (In Press) Yitaferu, B. (2007). Land Degradation and Options for Sustainable Land Management in the Lake Tana Basin (LTB), Amhara Region, Ethiopia. PhD thesis, Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Switzerland.

12

15

17

LIST OF FIGURES
3

Figure 1: Location of (d) Kuhar Michael located in the (b) Fogera District and (e) Lenche Dima in the (c) Gubalafto District, Both are located in (a). Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia Figure 2: Land use and land cover maps of Kuhar Michael in (a)1973, (b)1985, (c) 1999 and(d) 2005 Figure 3: Land use and land cover map of Lenche Dima in (a) 1972, (b) 1986, (c) 2000 and (d) 2005 Figure 4: Summary of land use and land cover changes 1973-2005. (a) Kuhar Michael , (b) Lenche Dima Figure 5: Trends in average household level holding IN Kuhar Michael (KM) and Lenche Dima (LD) (a) cattle, (b)pack animals, (c), small ruminants and (d) total livestock

12

15

18

21

18

Fig 1 will be replace by color figure

12

19

Fig 2 3

12

15

20

Fig 3

21

Fig 4a

Percent Coverage(%)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 Cultivated land Dense shrub/bush Open shrub/bush

Land use land cov er type

22

Grassland

Bare land

wetland

2005

1999

1985

1972

Fig 4b

Percent coverage(%)
10 20 30 40 50 60 0
Cultivated land Dense shub/bush land Open shrub/bush land

land use land cover type

23
Grassland

2005

2000

1986

1973

Fig 5

7.00 6.00 5.00


Number of cattle
Number of pack animals

4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 30yr 20yr 10yr Time(year) 5yr Now

0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 30yr

A
10.00 8.00
Nomber of ruminants

B
16.00 14.00 12.00

20yr 10yr Time(year)

5yr

Now

6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00

Total number of livestock

10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 30yr 20yr 10yr 5yr Now

30yr

20yr

10yr 5yr Time(year)

Now

Time horizon(year)

24

Table 1: Characteristics of interviewed households and their land holding.


Household characteristics Number of HH interviewed Average Land holding per Household in ha Private .grazing Cultivated Non-irrigated Aver. Age % Female Irrigated

Area closure 0.12 0

Abandoned

Homestead

Study area

Woodlots

% Male

Gully

Total

Kuhar Michael

Now 30 year ago Now 30 year ago

28

54

44

51

0.37

0.63

0.14

0.26

0.02

0.02

0.08

1.48

0.45

0.79

1.24

0.11

0.26

0.01

0.01

0.01

1.59

Lenche Dima

22

59

41

51

0.49

1.3

1.8

0.23

0.02

2.15

0.22

2.2

0.01

0.73

0.01

293

25

Total

Year

Table 2: Details about the satellite images used in this Kuhar Michael (KH) and Lenche Dima (LD)
Image District/ PA KM KM KM KM LD LD LD LD Date of acquisition Dec1 ,2005 Oct 23,1999 Nov 9,1985 Feb 1,1973 Oct16,2005 Dec 5,2000 Jan 5 ,1986 Nov 1, 1972 No of bands 14 7 7 4 14 7 7 4 Band combination VNIR (1, 2, 3N) 3,2,1 3,2,1 3,2,1 VNIR ( 1, 2, 3N) 3,2,1 3,2,1 3,2,1 Spatial resolution (m) 15 30 30 80 15 30 30 80 Sensor type ASTER ETM+ TM MSS ASTER ETM+ TM MSS

ASTE RL1B P169r 52 P16r5 P182r 52 ASTE RL1B P168r 52 P168r 52 P180r 52

26

Table 3: Land use and land cover classes considered and their description (adapted and modified from Yitaferu, 2007) Class name 1 Cultivated land Description Plain and slightly undulating landscapes that are intensively cultivated (>75%). Foot-slopes and undulating landscapes are usually under moderately cultivated condition (50-75%) and are considered as part of this class. Refers to areas covered with tree, shrub, bushes and some grasses that dominate the foot-slopes and riverine landscapes. Classified as open and dense shrub/bush land based on percent of vegetation cover. This land cover includes short term flooded flat lands that are usually used for intensive grazing. Many of these lands in Kuhar Michael are periodically flooded. Refers to those land surface features devoid of any type of vegetation cover. It included abandoned land, roads, gullies and other waterways. Represents most plains areas with frequent flooding event during the rainy season.

Shrub/bush land

Grass land

Bare land

Wetland

27

Table 4 Accuracy assessment of ASTER image for the Kuhar Michael (KM) and Lenche Dima (LD) study areas
Reference
Class name Study area Cultivated land Dense Shrub Open Shrub Grass land Total Users Accuracy (%) Cultivated land KM LD Dense shrub KM LD 6 7 1 1 2 2 2 3 11 13 55 54 1 3 6 67 83 2 5 1 2 2 4 2 2 4 10 50 40 6 5 9 6 67 83 2 2 1 1 8 10 4 8 5 6 10 11 27 35 75 70 50 63 40 67 60 45

Classified Image

Open shrub

KM LD

grassland

KM LD

Total

KM LD

Producers Accuracy (%)

KM LD

Users accuracy=number correct/classified total Producers accuracy=number correct/reference total

28

Table 5: Summary of the average number of animals of different livestock types based on socio-economic survey Average Livestock holding per household(number of animals) Small Cattle Pack animals Total livestock ruminants 30 30 30 30 years Now years Now years Now years Now ago ago ago ago 3.43 5.82 3.43 4.09 0.25 0.41 0.75 0.82 0.18 5.91 0.79 4.55 3.86 12.14 4.97 9.46

Study area Kuhar Michael Lenche Dima

29