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Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY 1 Co parison

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Co parisons of Data in !u an Males in Sullivan County, NY
JUSTIN HASENFUS, The Richard Stockton State College of New Jersey

A STRACT! " study of the life expectancies,

ortality rates, and survivorship data of hu an ales in Sullivan County, Ne# Yor$, #as conducted on Septe %er &'th, &(1&) *i e periods under scrutiny of co parison fro the Le# +each Ce etery and ,oc$ ,id-e Ce etery, #ere fro 1./0 to 1..' and 1'1(21.13, respectively) Data #ere collected fro each source and analy4ed to deter ine if there #ere any si ilarities or differences a on- the data) 5t #as hypothesi4ed that there #ere a nu %er of factors that contri%uted to the incline of ortality and su%se6uent decline in survivorship of the ,oc$ ,id-e dataset 7,,D8, #hen co pared to that of the Le# +each dataset 7L+D8) 9actors included a deficient healthcare syste , an incursion of i i-rants carryin- disease across continents, adverse #or$in- conditions to #hich the city2d#ellin- #or$force #ere exposed, and the total pollution accu ulated %y the spar$ of the 5ndustrial revolution) *his hypothesis #as accepted, supportin- the notion that the differences in ortality, survivorship, and life expectancy rates %et#een the t#o datasets #ere due to identifia%le, or at least :ustifia%le, non2confoundin- factors)

"E#$%R&S! life expectancy,

ortality, survivorship, $urtosis

'( INTR%&UCTI%N
Life *a%les can %e a very handy tool for scientists or anyone -enerally interested in the health of a population of individuals over a specified ti e period) +y collectinand interpretin- data fro a specific ti e period, one can calculate such fi-ures as ortality rates, survivorship, and life expectancy) ;hen vie#ed to-ether as a #hole, this data can -ive you a -eneral idea a%out ho# the population<s -ro#th rate trended and in #hat direction 7increasin- or decreasin-8) 5t is i portant to %e a%le to identify patterns in survivorship and ortality, since these are the %est indicators of a population<s a%ility to adapt and survive to the correspondin- area of research) "s one exa ines a population<s life ta%le, trends #ithin the population can %e identified) *he scientific study covered in this paper pertains to the populations of hu an ales that lived and died in Sullivan County, Ne# Yor$) *he ti e periods 1'1( to 1.13 and 1./0 to &(((, #ere o%served) *his paper ai s to exa ine the collected data and atte pts to dra# conclusions a%out Sullivan County<s population trends)

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY & Co parison *he 5ndustrial ,evolution %e-an around 110( and sur-ed on into the 1'3(s 7Monta-na &(1&8) ;ith increasin- industrial efficiency, ca e increasin- industrial pollution) *his created unfavora%le #or$in- conditions, all in the na e of econo ical -ro#th and profit 7!ac$ett 1..&8) " hu-e #ave of i i-ration to the =nited States around this ti e #as also noted, and ay have %rou-ht #ith it, disease fro other countries 7Mori &(118) Ne# Yor$ has %een a ar6uee point of entry for Europeans and forei-ners ali$e, introducin- around &( illion ne# individuals to the population fro the late 1. th century to the early &(th century 7Ne# Yor$ 2 Mi-ration &(1(8) *his influx of disease, coupled #ith an increasin- rate of pollution and unfavora%le #or$in- conditions, ay have affected the Sullivan County population around this ti e) 5ndividuals livin- durin- the earlier ti e periods 7,oc$ ,id-e data8 ay have %een ore adversely affected than those livin- durinlater periods 7Le# +each data8)

)( *ETH%&S
*he study %e-an #ith the collection of data fro an internet source, ###)5nter ent)net 7Sullivan County Ce etery ,ecords Ne# Yor$ 1..12&(118) Data #ere collected fro t#o separate ce eteries and fro t#o separate ti e periods) Data #ere selected fro the ,oc$ ,id-e Ce etery in *ho pson, NY 1 fro the ti e period 1'1(21.13, and fro the Le# +each Ce etery, located in ,oc$land, NY &, fro the ti e period 1./0 to &((() *he infor ation located on the #e%site #ere derived fro to %stones in the correspondin- ce etery) Males #ere the -ender of interest) " life ta%le #as constructed throu-h Microsoft Excel) Data #ere copied and pasted into cells in an Excel spreadsheet 7ra# data8, separated into colu ns for sex, first and last na e, year of %irth, year of death, and a-e of death) *he data #as then sorted %y sex, to attain the -ender of interest, ales) Data #as then sorted %y year of death to filter out individuals #ho #ere irrelevant to the desired ti e periods in the study) "fter the tar-et data #ere attained, a sa ple si4e #as reached) Calculations for the life ta%le could then %e ade) Sa ple si4es #ere &(. individuals for the Le# +each Ce etery and >1& for the ,oc$ ,id-e Ce etery 7!asenfus &(1&8) *he first calculation #as to si ply count the nu %er of individuals that had died #ithin the ti e period) *hese nu %ers #ere then entered into 1( year a-e2intervals, startin1

Mortality data for hu an ales in Le# +each Ce etery #ere collected fro sources: ,ecords 5ndex, Surna es "2? http:@@###)inter ent)net@data@us@ny@sullivan@le#%each@le#Aa$)ht ,ecords 5ndex, Surna es L2B http:@@###)inter ent)net@data@us@ny@sullivan@le#%each@le#Al4)ht & Mortality data for hu an ales in ,oc$ ,id-e Ce etery #ere collected fro sources: http:@@###)inter ent)net@data@us@ny@sullivan@roc$rid-e@index)ht

the follo#in-

the follo#in-

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY > Co parison #ith the (2C1( a-e interval and increasin- until a-e 1(() *he 1((D a-e interval in *a%le 1 is an exa ple of the final a-e2interval 7!asenfus &(1&8) Calculations included: crude lx 7nu %er of people alive at the %e-innin- of each a-e interval8, lx 7 nu %er of people alive standardi4ed per thousand8, crude dx 7nu %er of people dyin- durin- each a-e interval8, 6x 7 ortality rate8, Lx 7avera-e nu %er of people alive durin- the period %et#een one a-e interval and the next8, *x 7nu %er of people2decades left to the entire -roup fro a-e ExF to the end of their lives8, ex 7life expectancy8 7Geller &(1&8) People2decades #ere calculated as #ell) *hese are %est defined %y exa ple: ten individuals livin- one year or one individual livin- ten years are exa ples of a people2decade 7Geller &(1&8) *hese calculations #ere used to -enerate t#o life ta%les, one for each the Le# +each Ce etery and ,oc$ ,id-e Ce etery) Mortality and survivorship curves #ere then -enerated, %ased upon the tar-et data) *he ortality curve #as used to present a -raphical representation of the rate at #hich the population of individuals #ithin the sa ple si4e died over ti e throu-hout each a-e2interval) *he survivorship curve #as used to depict the survival of individuals of a-e2specific ti e intervals for the tar-et data) +( RESU,TS *he nu %er of individuals #ho died at an early a-e durin- the 1'1(21.13 period 7data extracted fro the ,oc$ ,id-e Ce etery8 si-nificantly differs fro that of the 1./02&((( period 7data extracted fro the Le# +each Ce etery8) *he nu %er is hi-her for the ,,D and fluctuates a %it ore than that of the L+D, #hich has one nor al hill of fluctuation) +y the a-e interval of /(2C3(, the population of individuals in the L+D had re ained ostly intact, retainin- a relatively hi-h lx value throu-hout the a-e intervals until the 1(2C'( a-e interval #as reached) "t this point, lx decreased drastically) *he ,,D differed fro the L+D si-nificantly in one respectH durin- the /(2C3( a-e2interval, one2third of the sa ple ,oc$ ,id-e population had died off, leadin- to a steadily decreasin- lx value into the 0(2C1( a-e2interval, #here it %e-an to drop off ore 6uic$ly 7!asenfus &(1&, *a%les 1 and &8) Dx 7dx8 spi$ed for %oth datasets durin- the 1(2C'( a-e interval) *he L+D follo#ed a trend close to nor al distri%ution, #hereas the ,,D #as a little less consistent #ith a nor al distri%ution curve) *hat is, if #e #ere to fit the %oth to a %ell2shaped curve, the L+D #ould ost closely fit out of the t#o) *he ,,D curve exhi%ited sli-htly lepto$urtic features, #ith ore data points clustered at the 1(2C'( a-e interval) *his created a pea$ that is EtallerF in hei-ht than a nor al distri%ution curve, ter ed E eso$urticF)

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY / Co parison

7!asenfus &(1&, *a%les 1 and &8 *he ,,D scored hi-her ortality rates 76x8 throu-h all a-e intervals 7!asenfus &(1&, *a%les 1 and &8) *he L+D posted hi-her survivorship nu %ers 7Lx8 than did the ,,D) *he total nu %er of years lived into the future %y individuals in each a-e interval 7*x8 also sho#s the L+D as scorin- hi-her values than the ,,D) *he life expectancy rate 7ex8 follo#s this pattern and favors hi-her values in each and every a-e interval for the L+D) -( &ISCUSSI%N *he ,,D revealed ore variance than did the L+D, due to unre-ulated confoundinfactors) *he ,,D represents the earlier ti e period 71'1(21.138 and the L+D represents the later ti e period 71./02&(((8) *he hi-her standards of livinreflected in the L+D could %e attri%uted to ti ely advance ents in civili4ation in the Northeastern =nited States) *he increased early2a-e deaths presented %y the ,,D can %e explained %y the advance ents in odern edicine over the past century) 5t #asn<t until the late 1'0(s that antiseptic practices in the operatin- roo #ere ade co onplace) 5t #as not until the late 1'1(s that vaccines for devastatindiseases and ail ents, such as cholera, tetanus, anthrax, and the pla-ue, #ere developed 75nfor ation Please &((18) ;ith the increased levels of i i-ration durin- this period, har ful patho-ens could have %een introduced due to the lac$ of edical $no#led-e at the ti e) 5t is not unli$ely that the Sullivan County population #as effected %y these factors, as it is located relatively close to a a:or #ater %ody)

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY 3 Co parison

IIGreen area is Sullivan County, Ne# Yor$) Li-ht %lue areas are #ater %oides, one on the ri-ht %ein- the "tlantic Jcean 7Sullivan County &(1&8) *he nu %er of 5rish i i-rants co in- to the =)S) alone, is relatively close enou-h to the ,,D ti e period 71'1(21.138 to explain #hy the ,,D displays lo#er life expectancy 7ex8 and hi-her ortality rates 76x8) *he less unifor ortality curve and ore ri-id survivorship curves for the L+D are also explained %y this 7!asenfus &(1&8H the L+D #as sa pled durin- a ti e period #hen the edical status and environ ental re-ulation of the =nited States #as ti-hter and therefore, ore effective)

7roots#e% n)d)8 Environ ental pollution in the =nited States #as not exa ined thourou-hly until the id21.>(s) *his eant that pollution -enerated %y the 5ndustrial ,evolution, #as free to circulate throu-h the air supply and into the soils and hydrolo-ic cycle

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY 0 Co parison 7Environ ental !istory *i eline n)d)8) Pollution #as not re-ulated officially until the 1.1(s, #ell after the ti e period of that of the ,,D 7*i eline of ?ey Environ ental Le-islation &(118) *he ortality curve of the ,,D starts rather hi-h, then dips, than rises a-ain) *his could %e explained %y loo$in- at the a-e intervals over #hich this occurs) 9ro %irth, chance of ortality in a edically poor or sanitation2deficient society is hi-her, especially for %a%ies, #hose i une syste s are i ature and una%le to fi-ht disease 7!ill &(1(8) 5f survival #as achieved until a-e 1(, then ortality #ould decrease, perhaps as children are vie#ed as havin- ore value 7%ein- older and ore useful8 and are protected and loo$ed after ore) =pon reachin- a-e &(, the youn- adult then ay have entered the #or$in- force and %een ore heavily exposed to pollution and disease, increasin- ortality) C%NC,USI%N "s #ith any co plex, real #orld study or odel, a certain level of uncertainty acco panies confoundin- factors) Standard error than %eco es relevant) "fter further research of the ,,D and L+D, it has %een concluded that enou-h evidence supports the acceptance 7or failure to re:ect8 of the proposed hypothesis, #ith a sufficient enou-h level of confidence to hold fir ) 5 %elieve that the sa ple si4e #as lar-e enou-h to say #ith a ple precision and accuracy, -iven the statistics at hand, that the stratified rando sa plin- ethod used, united #ith the lo-istics of the hypothesis and its supportin- ar-u ents, yields reasona%la%ly :ustifia%le results)

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY 1 Co parison

A..EN&I/
Ta0le '( ,ife Ta0le of H12an *ales ased on *ortality &ata fro2 '3-45 6resent( &ata were collected fro2 the ,ew each Ce2etery, located in Rockland, N# 7S1lli8an Co1nty9( x (2 C1( 1(2 C&( &(2 C>( >(2 C/( /(2 C3( 3(2 C0( 0(2 C1( 1(2 C'( '(2 C.( .(2 C1(( 1((D S a 2 6le S i:e died > 1 1 / 1( &1 3& 3. /0 11 1 ) ; 3 crude lK &(. &(0 &(3 &(/ &(( 1.( 10. 111 3' 1& 1 lx 1((( .'0 .'1 .10 .31 .(. '(. 30( &1' 31 3 dx 1/ 3 3 1. /' 1(( &/. &'& &&( 3> 3 6x ()(1/ ()((3 ()((3 ()(&( ()(3( ()111 ()>(' ()3(/ ()1.> ().11 1)((( Lx ..> .'> .1' .01 .>> '3. 0'/ /1. 101 >1 & *x 1(11 0(&/ 3(/1 /(0& >(.0 &10> 1>(/ 0&( &(1 >> & ex 1()& 01)1 31)/ /1)0 >&)/ &>)' 10)1 11)1 1)& 3)' 3)(

Ta0le )( ,ife Ta0le of H12an *ales ased on *ortality &ata fro2 '<=; 5 '3'>( &ata were collected fro2 the Rock Ridge Ce2etary, located in Tho26son, N# 7S1lli8an Co1nty9( x (2 C1( 1(2 C&( &(2 C>( >(2 C/( /(2 C3( 3(2 C0( 0(2 C1( 1(2 C'( '(2 C.( .(2 C1(( S a 2 6le S i:e died >& 1( &3 &/ && &0 3' 1& >0 1 + ' ) crude lK >1& &'( &1( &/3 &&1 1.. 11> 113 /> 1 lx 1((( '.1 '03 1'3 1(' 0>' 33/ >0. 1>' && dx 1(> >& '( 11 11 '> 1'0 &>1 113 && 6x ()1(> ()(>0 ()(.> ()(.' ()1(( ()1>1 ()>>3 ()0&0 ()'>1 1)((( Lx ./. ''1 '&3 1/1 01> 3.0 /0& &3> '( 11 *x 3/1' /3&. >0/1 &'&& &(13 1/(& '(0 >/3 .1 11 ex 3/)' 3()3 /&)1 >3). &.)> &&)( 1/)3 .)> 0)0 3)(

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY ' Co parison

Life Expectancy, Mortality, and Survivorship Data Patterns: Sullivan County, NY . Co parison

,ITERATURE CITE&
Environmental History Timeline. http:@@###)radford)edu@L#$ovari$@envhist@0t#enties)ht l 7accessed &(1&8) Geller, Michael D) M*a$e !o e "ssi-n ent: Life *a%les)M 5n Manual for Ecological Principles Laboratory, ENVL 220 , 1121') Gallo#ay, &(1&) !ac$ett, Le#is) !n"ustrial #evolution. 1..&) http:@@history2#orld)or-@5ndustrial N&(5ntro)ht 7accessed Jcto%er &(, &(1&8) !asenfus, Oustin +) M!asenfus ENPL &&(3 Life *a%les and 9i-ures)M Microsoft E$cel, 20%0. Septe %er &', &(1&) !ill, Mar6uita ?) &n"erstan"ing Environmental Pollution. >rd) Ca %rid-e =niversity Press, &(1() !nformation Please. &((1) http:@@###)infoplease)co @ipa@"(.>&001)ht l 7accessed Jcto%er &(, &(1&8) Monta-na, Ooesph ") 'ale(Ne) Haven Teac*er+s !nstitute. &(1&) http:@@###)yale)edu@ynhti@curriculu @units@1.'1@&@'1)(&)(0)x)ht l) Mori, ?athryn and Carolyn Scearce) Hygiene History in t*e !n"ustrial,e" -orl". &(11) http:@@###)csa)co @discovery-uides@hy-iene@revie#&)php 7accessed Jcto%er &(, &(1&8) Ne) 'or. ( Migration. &(1() http:@@###)city2data)co @states@Ne#2Yor$2 Mi-ration)ht l 7accessed Jcto%er &(, &(1&8) Mroots#e%)M ancestry.com. http:@@freepa-es)-enealo-y)roots#e%)ancestry)co @Ld-arvey@GarveyAusAcen sus@halfApass)ht l 7accessed &(1&8) MSullivan County)M Luventicus. "u-ust &1, &(1&) http:@@###)luventicus)or-@ aps@ne#yor$state@sullivan)ht l 7accessed &(1&8) /ullivan 0ounty 0emetery #ecor"s Ne) 'or.. 1..12&(11) http:@@###)inter ent)net@us@ny@sullivan)ht 7accessed Jcto%er &(, &(1&8) Timeline of 1ey Environmental Legislation. "pril &(11) http:@@###)nae )or-@Q CPACJMPA ilestones 7accessed &(1&8)