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Mobile Future @mocom2020 - A collaborative vision of the future of Mobile Media and Communication. (cc) 2009 by Monty C. M. Metzger. Some rights reserved. Your are free to Share — to copy, distribute and transmit the work to Remix — to adapt the work Under the following conditions Attribution — You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Share Alike — If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same, similar or a compatible license.
Mobile Media Revolution A Vision of the Future Preface: The idea of MOCOM 2020 Preface: A conversation about mobile Mobile Media in the year 2020 MOCOM 2020 - Key Trends Social Media The Evolution of Social Media The phenomenon of the social network facebook Will the facebook phone conquer the mass-market? The rise of Twitter as Micromedia Mobile, most important for digital business? 1 4 5 8 10 15 16 17 18 22 24 27
CONTENT: MOCOM 2020 - A collaborative vision of Mobile Media i
Mobile Social Software (MoSoSo) and Social Network Services (SNS), the future driver of the mobile internet? 28 The World is Mobile 4.1 Billion Mobile Phone Subscribers Worldwide 3G mobile diversity in China 32 33 36
Will the netbook play an essential part for mobile media in the future? 39 Will the Sun charge the Mobile Devices of the emerging markets? 41 Mobile Broadband 1 billion mobile broadband subscribers by 2013 4G needed to avoid wireless network overload? 44 45 48
Will mobile media be driven out of emerging markets (like China, India etc.)? 49 Electronic Paper 52
Who will bring out the first eNewspaper Reader for free?54 The Internet of Things The future of smart Ambient Devices The Ease of charging your mobile devices! 56 58 63
Mobile Health : Are there serious Health Benefits from Mobile Phones? 65 Mobile Payment 70
CONTENT: MOCOM 2020 - A collaborative vision of Mobile Media ii
Mobile Payment: $860 Billion By 2013?
Mobile Payment technology is there, but the ecosystem is missing. 73 Will Near Field Communication (NFC) change the way we pay? 74 Mobile Economy Boom 76
10 imperatives for success – particularly but not exclusively in the digital economy 77 Is Mobile the next disruptive technology? 80
Will the Open Mobile Internet shape our digital future radically? 82 The World Economic Forum about the Future of Mobile Communication 91 Are we in the Cambric Explosion of Mobile Advertising? 95 Key Trends at CTIA Wireless 2009 Key Trends at the Mobile Word Congress 2009 How Apple impacts the Wireless World? Appendix Continuing the conversation Contributors Gerhard Fasol Paul Golding 97 104 111 120 122 124 125 126
CONTENT: MOCOM 2020 - A collaborative vision of Mobile Media iii
Alvin Graylin Rolf Hansen Benjamin Joffe Marco Koeder Taewoo Danny Kim Kevin Leong Monty Metzger Michael J. O'Farrell Dr. Phillip Olla Dr. Charles Savage John Strand Mehmet Unsoy Mark Wächter
127 129 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 36
CONTENT: MOCOM 2020 - A collaborative vision of Mobile Media iv
CONTENT: MOCOM 2020 - A collaborative vision of Mobile Media v
Mobile Media Revolution
The Internet has changed our daily life and how we do business. Still it has only reached one fifth of the global population. The Mobile Phone has already reached one half of the planet and due to fast life-cycles of the mobile devices half of the global population will have powerful mobile media device soon. So, faced with this rapid change, it makes sense to ask: What will the future of Mobile Media look like? And what will these changes mean for our lives? In management, commerce, news, media, manufacturing, marketing, service industries, investing, politics, government, and even education and religion, answering these questions are key to navigating a world that is changed radically and forever. Future developments and innovation are only limited to our imagination. Human kind has always developed things that they can dream or think of. To develop a vision of the future of Mobile
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Media it would be arrogant to see it just from a single perspective. We rather wanted to work together, combine several views and perspectives from around the world. We need to exchange ideas, reflect trends and technologies and share our personal experiences with others. Due to the power of Social Media and the latest Web 2.0 development we can truly create a collaborative vision of the future. Mocom2020.com is the platform where we have started to envision the future of mobile communication while sharing each piece of analysis and enlightenment with the public. It is hard to name an industry or institution - advertisers, airlines, retailers, auto makers, consumer-products brands, computer companies, fashion designers, telecommunication companies, cable operators, political candidates, government leaders, and university educators - that should not be asking: What will the future of Mobile Media look like? This questions is the centre of the global open think tank, MOCOM 2020. We want to inspire you to develop your own perspective of the current trends as well as the future developments in Mobile Media. This book is a summary of the experiences, thesis, articles and knowledge shared since the start of the open think tank MOCOM 2020 in mid 2008.
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We begin by looking into the future from the past to the year 2020.
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A Vision of the Future
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Preface: The idea of MOCOM 2020
MOCOM 2020 brings together people who are passionate about „Mobile“. When Ira Reckenthäler, Head of Public Relation at simyo, and I first started discussing the idea to create a „future vision“ of mobile media and communication, we had no idea what would be the final result. But we both felt that it would be worth opening the research process and integrating all people who are passionate about mobile. We started by setting up a rough project structure, combining the trend expertise of Ahead of Time with the mobile market know-how of the whole simyo Team. Without the passionate support of Rolf Hansen, Founder & CEO simyo, Christian Magel, Founder & CMO simyo, and the support of the whole simyo Team, this project would not have become reality. As a first step we invited some of the most inspiring thinkers and leading entrepreneurs from USA, Europe and Asia into the MOCOM 2020 advisory board. With the start of the Mocom2020.com platform we opened up to everybody who wanted to join the conversation, share ideas or publish latest research results. Since then we have published an average of two articles, event reviews, trend explanations or facts & figures, per week. The close work with simyo as well as the advisory board was inspiring and lead to the key results of the project. But what‘s truly amazing was the support of many guest authors, users and fans during the whole project.
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The final future vision video was subtitled in French and even Chinese by the community within two weeks after its release. The MOCOM 2020 project is based on several main philosophies and innovative research methodologies. The concept of openness and authenticity widely anticipated in the Web 2.0 landscape shaped the overall idea of the project. We integrated many Social Media tools, like Facebook, Twitter, Flickr or YouTube to be active in the „Shareconomy“. The concept of Crowdsourcing enabled the community to actively participate in the project. The process of „Strategic Roadmapping“ showed us when each trend and development might reach a level of relevance. The perspectives of each advisor to our project were important to reflect our provocative ideas and thesis. Marco Koeder, Managing Director of Cybermedia, brought in the perspective out of one of the most developed markets in mobile media, Japan. He shared case studies and insights how the japanese use the mobile web in daily life. Alvin Graylin is founder and CEO of M-Info, the leading mobile search company in China. He discussed the status and the future potential of fast growing mobile media markets like China. Dr. Mehmet Unsoy, Partner at Cartagena Capital , explained where the „beef“ of mobile media could be and gave great insights from an investor perspective. Dr Phillip Olla,Professor at the school of business at Madonna University in Michigan USA, explained key trends like M-Health with an academic twist.
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Rolf Hansen, founder of simyo, developed ten imperatives of success for the future of mobile media. He showed how the „power of collaboration“ will change the way of business and influences the mobile media ecosystems. Besides Marco, Alvin, Mehmet, Phillip and Rolf, MOCOM 2020 is the result of many people, participants and passionate Fans. I want to take the opportunity to thank you all very much for your incredibly energy and know-how you brought into this project. I am looking forward to the next phase of MOCOM 2020. Your sincerely,
Monty C. M. Metzger, Ahead of Time
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Preface: A conversation about mobile
The safest method to predict the mobile communication of tomorrow is to create it yourself. MOCOM 2020, co-founded by simyo, is the first international think tank to the future of mobile communication. Diverging thought leaders and open-minded thinkers from all over the world participate in it: pupils, students, scientists and lawyers, but also medical practitioners and sociologists. With their specific knowledge and perspectives, they all play an important role in contributing to open the door to the future a little bit. The only thing that is for sure is that nothing really is for sure: everything that seemed to be foreseeable yesterday can already be up for renogotiation today. For simyo, MOCOM 2020 is an important platform for discussions. It is especially important for us not to remain in our own universe, but to develop ideas and realise visions together with other people. Together with network providers, fabricators of mobile phones and content providers, but also consumers and all other interested people, we want to enlarge the limits of thinking – and therefore take part in the decision-making in the prospective way of mobile communication. We already achieved an initial success on the Mobile World Congress 2009 in Barcelona. Within the first “Mobile Media TweetUp,” we met approximately 150 people from over 20 nations. We discussed MOCOM 2020 with journalists and twitterers – and laid the basis for an international network. The feedback on the “next conference 09” in Hamburg was notedly
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positive: this is an evidence for the enormous potential that opens up for thought-provoking impulses through questions. Furthermore, the great support by the industry is really pleasing. It shows that you can move something in the context of competition. What did we learn from MOCOM 2020 until now? We got to know the international mobile market and learned about the role of mobile telephony in the developing countries. We experienced new information about different cultures and got new insights in the mobile communication in faraway countries. Our targets are clear: We want to move things together. We want to have a say in the future of mobile communication. And we want to influence market developments in a positive way, nationally and internationally. We will pursue this target with commitment and great motivation. You are cordially invited as well. See you soon on Mocom2020.com!
Best regards Your Rolf Hansen, Founder & CEO, simyo
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Mobile Media in the year 2020
One the key results of the first phase of the MOCOM 2020 project was a „future vision video“ which we have premiered in front of 1400 participants at the NEXT Conference 2009 in Hamburg in May 2009. You can watch the HD video on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bvIIIVfLYA The following text is the transcript of the video: MOCOM 2020 the future of mobile media.
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In the year 2020 mobile media and communication has radically transformed the economy and our daily living unimaginable in an earlier age. Everyone has access to information on his mobile devices and contributes to the community. However the media as you know it has exceeded to exist, mobile has turned the world into an global information hub and has opened radical new business opportunities. The 21st century has unclosed the power of the information age, looking back to a not so distant past. The road to the mobile media revolution began at the beginning of the 20th century. 1906 the first US Patent for a wireless phone was registered. 1973 the first mobile phone call was placed in New York City. 1979 the first commercial mobile phones was presented in Tokyo. 1982 Nokia introduced its first portable phone. 1991 the first GSM networked opened in Finland. 1998 the first mobile content, a ringtone, was sold. 1999 the Blackberry was introduced starting the era of mobile email. 2001 the third generation of mobile phones was launched in Japan.
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2007 we reached over 3 billion mobile phone subscribers. The introduction of the iPhone is the start of the Touch-Device era. 2008 over 1 billion people have access to the internet, while 600 million people have access to the web through their mobile handset. 2009 the social network facebook welcomed its 200 millionst user, while twitter has become a mass-phenomena. We reach more than 4 billion mobile phone subscribers. 2010 the offline and online worlds are getting closer. Mixed Reality is enriching the mobile experience. 2011 build in sensors, like GPS, temperature, humidity, light- or compass-chips, create new mobile business ecosystems - the sensorconomy. 2012 we reach the barrier of 1 Trillion Networked Devices. Machine 2 Machine (M2M) communication, Smart Objects, Ubiquitous Computing create the Internet of things. 2013 is the year of mobile broadband. LTE is offering up to 50 Megabyte of network capacity for each users. People are living in the "smart cloud." 2014 India, Africa and other emerging markets have reached 70% penetration rate. 2015 Mobile Payment is becoming a mass phenomena, driven by Near Field Communication (NFC).
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Devices are adapting to our lifestyles and environments - its the start of the physically personal device. Nanotechnologies enable physical transformation according to their use and complete personalization in the process. 2016 the NY Times stops the delivery of printed newspapers and offers ePaper Readers for 1 USD. News Corp., Burda, Springer and other publishing companies follow in 2017. Everyone reads the news on plastic paper and updates it on the go. 2017 is the climax of the mobile economy boom. The market of mobile media is bigger than all the other media channels together. This year the introduction of Multi-Language with Instant Translation is bringing down the global information barriers for text and voice communication. 2018 the US Governments starts an initiative to increase mobile public security, the Mobile Agenda. The location and mobile data streams of each person will be tracked, analyzed and saved. We reach more than 8 billion people worldwide, 5 billion have a mobile phone, 2.5 billion including mobile internet access. The generation of "digital natives" has entered the business world. 2019 Privacy, Information Access and -Control have become essential issues for the worlds economy. "Cybersecurity has become one of the most critical issues".
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In the year 2020 our world of mobile media is disruptive, engaging, interactive, controversial but truly international. It is up to you how our future will look like. Don't lean back, be active and shape the environment of the future of mobile media and communication. Mocom 2020 is an open think tank to envision the future of mobile media and communication. Join the conversation at www.mocom2020.com
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MOCOM 2020 Key Trends
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MOCOM 2020 Thesis: 2009 the social network facebook welcomed its 200 millionst user, while twitter has become a mass-phenomena. We reach more than 4 billion mobile phone subscribers.
What you will learn in this section: ✓ The information-age is changing the way we live and democratizing the media landscape. ✓ People are actively taking part in a online conversations on Social Media platforms. ✓ Social Networking, especially Mobile Social Software, drives Mobile Media usage. ✓ Mobile Media becomes also available on low-cost phones. ✓ The micro-media platform Twitter has changed „real-time“ communication and information on the web.
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The Evolution of Social Media
The information-age is changing the way we live and democratizes the media landscape. For consumers it is the shift from their passive role of „consume“ to an active participator as a „reporter“, „reviewer“ or „author“. For marketing managers it is the end of mass-communication, shifting to an on-going and individual conversation with each person. Todays Social Media landscape was formed mainly through three major evolution-steps: Push: The traditional push-model for marketing communication and the classic distribution channels are decreasingly efficient and reach their limits. Pull: The creation of targeted content, interactive platforms and authentic communication attracts consumers, creates a specific desire and starts an on-going dialogue. Participation: The digitalization as well as the logical relationship through context and relevance are key-elements for an interactive conversation with the consumer. In our daily life people have to handle a total Information-overkill while using more and more different online-platforms actively. Transparency, authenticity and information-filters are needed to manage this overload of information. Lead-user, Geeks, Bloggers and the „Generation Y“ feel at home in social media and found their tools to organize the information-flow. Through collaborative filtering, tagging, recommendations and reviews they can filter
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out the things they really want to know. Communication and information is not limited to one platform nor one corporate website, information is collected on several site and services. These people use many different technologies, media-platforms and tools, they live in a networked world. People are taking part in an online conversation spread through the whole internet. The dialogue is taking place on many different services and media-platforms, via text, foto, audio or video. Brands, companies and products are a major topic for consumers to share and discuss. Companies have to develop strategies to cope with these changes and create new approaches for these digital conversations.
The phenomenon of the social network facebook
Facebook was founded in February 2004 by a Harvard University student, Mark Zuckerberg, and was initially only available to other students at the University. However it quickly expanded across other Universities before moving onto schools and it finally became available to all in September 2006. Since then, it has grown exponentially and currently has over 200 million users worldwide. However the majority of its success has been in English-speaking world, in particular Canada, the US and the UK and it has begun an assault on other countries with the introduction of different language sites, of which there are over 20 at present, with that number still growing.1
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Since January 2007, Facebook has had an average of 250,000 new registrations per day, resulting in an average of 3% weekly growth. Its active users are doubling every 6 months and more than half of all active users visit the site daily. The fastest growing demographic is the 25 years old and older and more than half of the users are now outside of college. Comscore revealed that people spend an average of 20 minutes per day on the site. Facebook’s wealth of applications are often credited as a major factor in its success. It is the number one photo sharing application on the web, with more than 14 million photos being uploaded daily. There have been over 52,000 applications built on the Facebook platform, and over 100 are added every day. Over 95% of all members have used at least one of the applications. The group functionality is also very popular; there are more than 19 million active groups on the site. Despite such growth, Facebook still seeks a working business model, according to the Wall Street Journal in November 2008: A new “engagement” ad format has been introduced to draw in advertisers in November 2008. Facebook reports that 70 of the U.S.'s 100 largest advertisers have advertised on its site since 2007 yet its share of total number of U.S. online display ad views was just 1.1%, (comScore Inc., June 2008) The potential is there – Fox Interactive Media Unit (of which MySpace is part) has 15.9% market so Facebook needs to find a way of improving its success, especially as it now exceeds MySpace’s worldwide audience. Despite its low market share,
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Facebook's revenue this year is expected to more than double to between $300 million and $350 million. With the changes it has instituted, Facebook has redefined what “social networking” is all about. In a sense, Facebook has grown beyond social networking into a new kind of portal, giving users broad control over what they see and how they see it. The application is still fundamentally about relationships and the always-changing networks among individuals, but these relationships are increasingly based on professional interests, political activities, and other connections that are not strictly social. The means of communication—e-mail, cell phones, instant messaging—have proliferated to the point of saturation. Facebook lets people assert control over this flood of communication. Facebook turned considerable control over to users, and results suggest that they are willing to take the time to understand and use a broad range of privacy settings. Social networking applications are here to stay, though as sites like Facebook continue to evolve, so too does the definition of social networking. Facebook has evolved from a fairly selfcontained networking tool to an application that ties in to other sites, such as Flickr and e-mail applications, using RSS feeds and other technologies. We might one day see functional interaction among social networking sites. Facebook’s integration with cell phones the ability to browse the site or upload photos from a phone and communicate with the site through text messages— moves the notion of social networking away from computers and into the realm of an “always on” application. The interesting
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question is whether expanded access and a growing number of functions will lead users into more substantive activities on the site. Facebook may become a channel for dialogue and a destination for people interested in learning about or sharing information on current issues. In addition, the site offers Facebook Flyers - paid advertisements created by users that are shown only to members of networks selected by the user. In this way, a campus can advertise jobs, a campus election, or other activities to students at that institution or perhaps also at nearby institutions. Online ads increasingly target narrow audiences, and Facebook is part of this trend.2
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This white-paper is published under a Creative Commons License. License: Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0.
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