Eco 348, The Great Recession: Readings (preliminary and incomplete) Feb.

3: Overview Eichengreeen and ORourke, A Tale of Two Depressions http://www.voxeu.org/article/taletwo-depressions-what-do-new-data-tell-us-february-2010-update DeLong, The Great Depression from the perspective of today http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/10/the-great-depression-from-the-perspective-of-today-andtoday-from-the-perspective-of-the-great-depression.html Nick Crafts, If only it were the 1930s, http://www.voxeu.org/article/eurozone-if-only-it-were1930s NIESR: http://niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/gdp1213press.pdf Feb. 5: Basic short-run macro Hicks, Mr.Keynes and the classics Krugman, IS-LMentary: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/is-lmentary/ David Romer, Short-run fluctuations http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/ISMP%20Text%20Graphs%202013.pdf Feb. 10: The Great Moderation Bernanke, The great moderation: http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/Speeches/2004/20040220/ Blanchard and Simon, The decline in U.S. output variability: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=277356 Feb. 12: Bubbles Shiller, From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance Greenspan 2004 http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2004/20041019/default.htm Minsky moment: http://media.pimco.com/Documents/GCB%20Focus%20May%2009.pdf FCIC report, http://fcic.law.stanford.edu/report, part III Feb. 17: Crisis models Diamond-Dybvig: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2007/spring/pdf/diamond.pdf Gorton, Slapped in the face, http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/conferen/09fmc/gorton.pdf Bernanke, The crisis as a classic financial panic, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20131108a.htm Feb. 19: The panic FCIC report: http://fcic.law.stanford.edu/report, part IV Feb. 24: Bailout

TARP: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112shrg64832/pdf/CHRG-112shrg64832.pdf Feb. 26: Stimulus Romer-Bernstein Assessment: http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf CBO on ARRA: http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43945 Where the money went: http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/default.aspx Mar. 3: War among the economists Krugman on economists: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economict.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Fama: http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/2009/01/bailouts-and-stimulus-plans.html Cochrane: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/fiscal2.htm Lucas: http://www.cfr.org/world/why-second-look-matters/p18996 Mar. 5: The end of the panic Economic Report of the President, 2010: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/economic-report-president-chapter-2r2.pdf Mar. 10: Global spread and stabilization IMF World Economic Outlook, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/ IMF, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/ Mar. 12: Midterm Mar. 24: The euro Euro@10: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication12682_en.pdf Mar. 26: The euro crisis ORourke and Taylor, http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.27.3.167 Eichengreen et al, The mother of all sudden stops: http://www.voxeu.org/article/mother-allsudden-stops Mar. 31: Austerity debates I: Short-run effects Krugman, Liquidity preference: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/02/liquiditypreference-loanable-funds-and-niall-ferguson-wonkish/ Krugman, Myths of austerity: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/opinion/02krugman.html?ref=paulkrugman Alesina and Ardagna: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15438 IMF I: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/pdf/c3.pdf IMF II: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40200.0

Apr. 2: Austerity debates II: Debt Greenlaw et al, Crunch time http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/USMPF13_final.pdf De Grauwe, http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/ew/academic/intecon/Degrauwe/PDGpapers/Discussion_papers/Governance-fragile-eurozone_s.pdf Reinhart-Rogoff and all that: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/04/the-rogoff-and-reinhart-controversy-asumming-up.html Apr. 7: Monetary debates I, Inflation or deflation? Meltzer, Inflation nation, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/opinion/04meltzer.html?pagewanted=all Feldstein, Inflation is looming http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/04/feldstein-inflation-is-looming.html CFR symposium 2009: http://www.cfr.org/united-states/new-financial-deal-do-1930s-teachreforming-todays-financial-markets/p19004 Krugman, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/22/this-age-of-hicks/ Apr.9: Monetary policy II, quantitative easing The data: http://clevelandfed.org/research/data/credit_easing/index.cfm Blinder, a primer: http://www.princeton.edu/ceps/workingpapers/204blinder.pdf Woodford on forward guidance: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/01/woodford-onmonetary-policy-sort-of-wonkish/ Abenomics, TK Apr. 14: Unemployment, structural or cyclical Edward Lazear, http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/el-js.pdf Beveridge curve analyses TK Apr. 16: Hysteresis DeLong and Summers: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Projects/BPEA/Spring%202012/2012a_DeLong.pdf Reifschneider et al: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2013/arc/pdf/wilcox.pdf April 21: Long-run fiscal outlook Latest CBO projections April 23: Crisis stories Blanchard on Latvia IMF on Iceland

April 28: Secular stagnation? Summers speech Krugman on Summers April 30: The new normal?