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INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE:

CHANGE IS NOW

WINTER 2008/2009 Many Minds. Singular Results.


Cover photo: Creative Commons/pdam2

Many Minds.
Singular Results.
DECEMBER 10, 2008—For years now, people have been reveling in the incredible pace of our hyperconnected
world: Fickle consumers switched allegiances; wave upon wave of innovative technologies hit the market;
companies went from zero to superstar at record speed. But in hindsight, that pace was a crawl compared with
what we are suddenly facing. Big changes now occur in the space of hours or days, not weeks or months. Rises and
falls come in double-digit percentages, not single. Loans and losses are spoken of in billions rather than millions.

We can’t and shouldn’t pretend that these are not worrying times for governments, businesses, customers—and
marketers. However, they’re times that allow Porter Novelli to play to our strengths, and to help clients find theirs.
We work hard to stand by our core proposition of Intelligent Influence, and to deliver it consistently to our clients.
Intelligence is not only back in style, it’s also in demand. Right now, intelligence means the ability to spot trends,
track pattern shifts and determine how they affect channels of influence. Trends are the coherent patterns we can
see forming in large-scale, complex interactions. Identifying relevant trends is vital to making sense of what
people are doing and why—and how we can influence them. Tracking trends over time enables us to understand
their momentum and forecast their staying power and their reach—and how much they will affect our activities.
Developing an intuitive awareness of the currents that shape behavior helps Porter Novelli deliver on our
Intelligent Influence promise.

The basis for Intelligent Influence is ongoing dialogue. Our goal with the Intelligent Dialogue series is to provide
perspective and stimulate conversation. The Winter 2008/2009 edition, “Change Is Now,” identifies the 10 key
trends for 2009 we will be factoring into our work as we help clients face their individual marketing
communications challenges. At Porter Novelli, we believe ours is a learning culture. We challenge assumptions
and cultivate creative questions, and we invite you to join the dialogue by checking out our blog,
PNIntelligentDialogue.com. It’s your forum for discussing the issues raised in “Change Is Now,” and for proposing
your own questions. This is an opportunity for individuals and organizations to demonstrate thought leadership on
issues that affect all of us. —MARIAN SALZMAN, CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER, PORTER NOVELLI

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 3


INTRODUCTION

WE’RE LOOKING AHEAD to a new year that no one expects will be easy. Optimism is the message people want to hear;
change is the one thing we can count on, for better or for worse. And the yearning for change isn’t some vague, abstract mantra;
it’s born out of crisis. We have to change for the better—personally, professionally, globally. But how far are we willing to go?
The global economic crisis is triggering a wave of soul-searching that will spur many powerful people to action—hopefully
concerted action. The coming year will be a time when what should happen will exert far more influence than usual on what
actually does happen.
At Porter Novelli, we understand that the world is complex and ever changing. 2008 has been unlike anything before it, and
2009 will again be unprecedented. Porter Novelli’s proprietary methods, utilized across our entire global network, help
to pick up threads of constantly shifting conversations that are relevant to our clients’ objectives. We work hard
to capture and influence those conversations in ways that will have the biggest, most beneficial impact.
We call this Intelligent Influence. We believe that dialogue eliminates the need for assumptions.
One of the tools we utilize in order to jump-start the conversation is our Intelligent Dialogue
series, in which we examine trends, raise questions, encourage critical thinking and
provoke debate. In this issue, “Change Is Now,” we ask Big Questions about the shape
of things to come:

• Will lifestyles, needs and expectations change in the wake


of the economic crisis? What will be the chief drivers of
consumption?
• Is “change” more than a buzzword? How are
attitudes, behaviors and relationships changing,
especially generational and gender dynamics?
• In an age of less-is-more, how radical are we
willing to get with change? What will our
collective mood be?
• In the thrifty, post-crash, always-tuned-in
world, where and how will we find personal
refuge?
• Now that we have experienced a
systemic failure firsthand, how will we
address the looming health care crisis?
At Porter Novelli, we genuinely get to know
people across the world, and knowing people
allows us to shape their changing lives and
lifestyle choices. We are connected to people,
whoever and wherever they are. We think about
their attitudes and beliefs, and work hard to alter
their behaviors. Why? Because we are committed
to Intelligent Influence on behalf of the brands
and clients we steward.

4 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


In the two decades since the publication of “Liar’s Poker,” I had been waiting for
the end of Wall Street. The outrageous bonuses, the slender returns to
shareholders, the never-ending scandals, the bursting of the Internet bubble, the crisis
following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management: Over and over again, the big
Wall Street investment banks would be, in some narrow way, discredited. Yet they just kept
on growing, along with the sums of money that they doled out to 26-year-olds to perform tasks
of no obvious social utility. The rebellion by American youth against the money culture never happened. Why bother
to overturn your parents’ world when you can buy it, slice it up into tranches and sell off the pieces?

At some point, I gave up waiting for the end. There was no scandal or reversal, I assumed, that could sink the
system. Then came Meredith Whitney with news. Whitney was an obscure analyst of financial firms for
Oppenheimer Securities who, on October 31, 2007, ceased to be obscure. On that day, she predicted that
Citigroup had so mismanaged its affairs that it would need to slash its dividend or go bust. It’s never entirely
clear on any given day what causes what in the stock market, but it was pretty obvious that on October 31,
Meredith Whitney caused the market in financial stocks to crash. By the end of the trading day, a woman
whom basically no one had ever heard of had shaved $369 billion off the value of financial firms in the market.
Four days later, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince resigned. In January, Citigroup slashed its dividend. —“The End,” by
Michael Lewis, Portfolio, December 2008

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 5


BIG QUESTION 1

Will lifestyles, needs and expectations


change in the wake of the economic crisis?
What will be the chief drivers of consumption?

> A RETURN TO the concept. During those prosperous


times, consumers measured value by how
VALUE AND VALUES much they got for the price—bigger, faster,
Who knows how much anything is worth brighter, more powerful, more features,
now? Just a few months ago, crude oil more convenience, more choice, more
fetched almost $150 a barrel; now in early prestige. It was a time of supersize
December it’s down to $44. As house expectations—although ironically, the more
prices and stock prices fall all around the consumers got for their money, the more
world, and businesses offer massive demanding they became. For consumers
discounts on everything from designer now, value no longer means “as much as
clothes and HDTVs to family meals and paying for all those extra features, I just
possible.” The greedy rise of “more” has need the basics.”
vacations, how do we know a good deal hit a ceiling. In this anxious, uncertain
when we see it? environment, real value means “just And now that financial uncertainty
“Value” is the worth or importance a enough to satisfy at a good price.” It abounds, entitlement is out the window,
buyer places on what he or she is paying means meeting needs and having a sense and change is on the way, what sort of
for. In just a few months, the economic of money well spent, not wasted. Listen values are we living by, and how do we
crisis has overturned our boom notions of out for more vocal consumers: “I’m not expect our purchases to measure up?
–>(page 9)

6 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


“Ladies, we know J. Crew. You can get some good stuff online!” —First Lady–to-be
Michelle Obama, appearing October 27 on the “Tonight Show With Jay Leno” wearing a J. Crew outfit
that cost less than $450

Today’s philanthrocapitalists see a world full of big problems that they, and perhaps
only they, can and must put right. Surely, they say, we can save the lives of millions of
children who die each year in poor countries from poverty or diseases that have been
eradicated in the rich world. And back home in the United States or Europe, it is we who
must find ways to make our education systems work for every child, instead of failing so
many students. And if these children are to have a decent life when they grow older, we must find a
solution to climate change and the underlying causes of terrorism. And so on. ...

Philanthrocapitalists are “hyperagents” who have the capacity to do some essential things far better than anyone
else. They do not face elections every few years, like politicians, or suffer the tyranny of shareholder demands for
ever-increasing quarterly profits, like CEOs of most public companies. Nor do they have to devote vast amounts of
time and resources to raising money, like most heads of NGOs. That frees them to think long-term, to go against
conventional wisdom, to take up ideas too risky for government, to deploy substantial resources quickly when the
situation demands it—above all, to try something new. The big question is, will they be able to achieve their
potential? —”Philanthrocapitalism: How the Rich Can Save the World” (Bloomsbury Press), by Matthew Bishop and Michael Green

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 7


I hate to tell you Boomers, but putting a yellow ribbon on the back of your
$50,000 SUV is not sacrifice. Our claim to fame is living way beyond our means
for the last three decades, to the point where we have virtually bankrupted our
capitalist system. Baby Boomers have been occupying the White House for the
last 16 years. The majority of Congress is Baby Boomers. The CEOs and top
executives of Wall Street firms are Baby Boomers. —“The Shallowest Generation,” by
James Quinn, The Big Picture, November 15, 2008

8 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


Until the economic crisis, having more, temporary slowdown or the start of a long- our economy is going to be critical. There
doing more and being more were term change in consumer behavior? is no better potential driver that pervades
dominant values. Now, as people scale all aspects of our economy than a new
President-elect Barack Obama sees
back the greed and feel empowered by energy economy.” Expect a significant shift
longevity in the shift. He told Time’s Joe
new leadership, watch for consensus of resources away from consumer-focused
Klein in October, "The engine of economic
building around values such as stability, industries and toward future-critical
growth for the past 20 years is not going to
sustainability, cooperation and peace of industries that are working to
be there for the next 20. That
mind. Consumers will be less about address major long-term needs
was consumer spending.
quantity of product and much more about such as clean, renewable
Basically, we
the quality of experience a brand delivers energy, energy
turbocharged this
and the ethics the brand lives. Parents will efficiency and water
economy based on
be more tempted to buy memorable management. With
cheap credit.” Now
quality experiences for their kids rather governments
cheap credit has
than cheap impulse satisfiers. And buyers increasingly
dried up and is
are looking to actively take part in change looking to foster
unlikely to flow
via their purchases. A Duke University such industries,
again soon. That’s
study of 1,000 online consumers this year they’ll become
not all. Relying on
found they spent almost twice as long sexier career choices
cheap raw materials
reading cause-related ads than generic ads. for the types of
such as oil, water,
Says lead researcher Gavan Fitzsimons, graduates and
metals, minerals and
“One thing we know for sure, consumers professionals who were
food has put a huge strain
are paying more attention to cause previously drawn to finance,
on the environment. It seems
messages, and as a result, are more likely banking and IT start-ups.
that the world can’t afford—
to purchase.” economically or environmentally—to rely on As businesses are forced to make cutbacks, they’ll
old-style consumer spending for another have to make decisions about how (or whether)
> LOOKING BEYOND generation of growth. to carry on with high-dollar corporate-citizenship
CONSUMPTION What will But don’t expect a wartime austerity commitments made prior to the crisis. Economist
business editor Matthew Bishop recently cited
drive business as consumers put on the mentality. In a recession and beyond,
brakes? All over the world retailers are people still have to buy food and furniture, Coca-Cola’s investments in water projects for
slashing prices to tempt buyers, but sales clothes and cars, appliances and personal developing countries as an example. How will
are still weak. The more doubts shoppers care products—but if they are no longer the reputation and responsibility factor into short-
have about cash flow, the more second growth drivers, what will take their place? term and long-term strategy now, when cash
thoughts they have about buying. Is this a Said Obama, “Finding the new driver of is scarce but values are key?

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 9


BIG QUESTION 2

Is “change”more than a buzzword?


How are attitudes, behaviors and
relationships changing—especially
generational and gender dynamics?

> GENERATIONAL government and business. As Baby


Boomers inch closer toward retirement
the Summer of Love, the peace
movement. Not until recently were they
POWER SHIFT The election of (the eldest will turn 63 in 2009), Cuspers even recognized as a distinct generation in
Barack Obama as President of the United (born 1955 to 1964) are beginning to take their own right. For some they are
States represents more than one first for a the reins, bringing their own life Generation Jones, a moniker coined by
nation intent upon change. Not only will experiences and mind-sets to the table. sociologist Jonathan Pontell. For others,
Obama be the first African-American to they are Tweeners or Cuspers, because
hold the country’s highest office; he’ll also Cuspers were once considered Late
they straddle the divide between Boomers
be the first U.S. president from the Cusper Boomers—lumped in with the Baby
and Generation X.
generation. Obama’s move to the White Boomers yet dismissed as late to the party,
House signifies a shift in generational too young to have partaken in formative Cuspers have an instinctive grasp of the
power and leadership taking place in events such as the Civil Rights movement, Boomer mind-set, because for much of

10 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


their lives, they were classified right along
with them. But they’re more adept at
tuning in to the viewpoints and
technologies of younger generations.
Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter, a
Cusper himself, noted that Cuspers have
typically been swing voters.
The generational shift doesn’t
necessarily mean Cuspers will take over
the commanding heights of power
everywhere. But it will see them
increasingly setting the style and tone in
politics and business. The process will
unfold as Barack Obama and Cuspers in
his cabinet (Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner, born 1961; Homeland Security
chief Janet Napolitano, born 1957; U.N.
Ambassador Susan Rice, born 1964) add
their clout to prominent Cusper leaders
such as French President Nicolas Sarkozy
(born 1955), rock-star activist Bono (born
1960) and Caroline Kennedy (born 1957),
the heiress apparent to the Kennedy family
leadership dynasty.
How will marketers engage with the
Cusper-driven mind-sets through the
economic crisis and beyond?

> REEVALUATING THE


ROLE OF THE SEXES
With unemployment rising, cash tighter
and uncertainty all around, many men will
undoubtedly find themselves feeling
powerless, with time on their hands and at
the mercy of events beyond their control.
They’ll find a renewed sense of purpose
and self-respect in rugged, masculine
activities, whether with a toolbox around
the house or in back-to-nature activities
outdoors. Gender equality is now so firmly
established that men can enjoy
traditionally masculine activities, and
women can enjoy feminine pastimes,
without worrying about gender
stereotyping and political correctness.

The growing appeal of rough and rugged is


behind the success of the deliberately macho
’70s-flashback cop show “Life on Mars.”
The appetite for untamed entertainment is
fed by the likes of extreme adventurer Bruce
Parry, motorbike adventurer Charley
Boorman and TV producer Thom Beers of
Original Productions (makers of TV series
“Deadliest Catch,” “Ice Road Truckers,” “Ax
Men” and “America’s Toughest Jobs”).

–> (page 13)

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 11


In the super-earnest, cash-strapped America of today, you can no longer define yourself
by a flashy purse or the number of Louboutin porno pumps in your closet. Ding-dong, the
Sex and the City female archetype is melting! That post-feminist woman, the gal who
thought drinking Cosmos and buying Blahniks made her an empowered and contributing
member of society, is now lying in the fetal position in her closet, clutching fistfuls of
credit card bills and cringing with embarrassment at her previous excesses. In order to stay
relevant in this brave new world, you must reinvent yourself and develop new interests that
take you beyond knowing how to spell and pronounce the words ‘Balenciaga’ and ‘Lanvin.’ It's
time for change! Obama aside, you owe it to the sisters of yore to become a more substantive chick.
The suffragettes and hairy-legged gals of the ’70s feminist movement did not throw themselves on the ramparts so that
you could live your life like one of those blond dingbat shopaholics on The Hills. Regarding shopping: Chances are you no
longer have the shekels to splurge the way you once did. Even if you have the cash, your consumer confidence has taken
a nosedive, and you are now, horror of horrors, shopping in your closet. Deep is the new superficial! —“Does Obama Era Mean
No More Blahniks?” by Simon Doonan, New York Observer, December 2, 2008

12 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


and outperforming men in universities. dual-parent households women are more
When women get a fair shot at education likely than men to bear the burden of
and employment, they are generally able housekeeping and caretaking. Women tend
to pay their own way in life and function to deal with the budgeting and buying, and
perfectly well as Singletons, pairing up (or survey results consistently show women
not) in their own time. It’s no accident that feeling more apprehensive about the
microfinance initiatives in developing economy than men. However, as the crisis
countries have focused almost exclusively bottoms out and things begin to stabilize,
on women, with great success. many women will be better equipped than
The Female Economy is going to be a major ever to work their way out of it.
factor in getting the world back on its feet.
In a 16-country survey of almost 8,000
It’s barely 20 years since men and women (single, married, etc.) commissioned
women last went through a financial by Omnicom’s G23 consultancy, 57 percent
crisis—in the late 1980s and early 1990s— agreed strongly that professionally, women
but gender relationships have changed a can be as successful as men, and another 24
lot since then. Back then mostly women
percent agreed somewhat; 34 percent rated
(read: secretaries) used keyboards; there
was no Internet. White-collar men used financial independence as absolutely essential
pen and paper, and blue-collar men in their life and 42 percent rated it
worked with their hands. Now computers extremely important.
dominate the lives of every gender, race
The economic crisis will inevitably
and age group, and the workplace for the
interrupt the progress of women, especially
most part exists without gender barriers.
those carrying the load as the head of a
Today in the United States and many single-parent household. And despite all
other countries, women are outnumbering the progress in gender equality, even in

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 13


“Men don’t generally deal as well with unemployment as women. A lot of anger
comes with redundancy and men tend not to talk through their emotions as
women do. Traditionally, the man provides, and for a man to lose his job, it’s not
just about money, it’s loss of status, which can be a huge knock to his
confidence.” —Steve Miller, business coach, quoted in “The Credit Crunch Hits Relationships
and Marriages,” by Becky Howard, The Times (U.K.), December 6, 2008

14 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


BIG QUESTION 3

In an age of less-is-more,
how radical are we willing to get with
change? What will our collective mood be?

> THE ULTIMATE Great Depression) increased people’s


appetite for change and their willingness to
economic crisis but also the environment,
development, energy, mining and mobility.
REBOOT Anybody with money or try something different in order to solve
The term “reboot” conjures an image
a job or a business at stake has probably problems. Will the same apply now, in a
wondered whether “the system” is truly familiar to anyone who has faced a
much more complex world where we are
broken, whether it can be fixed and who’s computer system crash. It implies starting
constantly deluged with information, and
going to fix it. Can brands and businesses the system fresh, and figuring out what
we have much more context for forming
do anything, or is it all up to governments, caused the crash in the first place. Critics
our own opinions?
regulators and international organizations? argue that rather than getting a reboot or
A “fundamental reboot” of the basic even repairs, the systems should be
The economic crisis has made everyone systems that drive the world’s economies replaced. Either way, there is agreement
acutely aware of just how interconnected and societies was the call from 700 experts that we need a radical change.
global systems are, and not just the discussing 68 global challenges at the
financial ones. In the past, major economic It’s no coincidence that “change” was a
World Economic Forum’s recent gathering
crises (the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the core theme of Barack Obama’s
in Dubai. They debated not just the
–> (page 16)

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 15


presidential campaign. And once Obama is
sworn in January 20, the Reboot dynamic
> DEVELOPING EARLY Might pop culture have a role to play in
spotting new developments? Movie and
will swing into action. Most of the global WARNING SYSTEMS TV writers (“The Shield,” “The Wire”) are
players will be in place and can start For a while people were asking, Why typically critical thinkers who research
making decisions that will aim to reshape didn’t anyone see this economic crisis their subjects and play out possibilities no
the country. Only time will tell whether coming? Now it turns out there were less plausibly than professional scenario
the decisions of individual countries or plenty of warnings. In retrospect we can analysts. Every season of the hit TV show
even groups of countries can reboot the see there were warnings about other recent “24” has focused on a complex evasion
world’s systems, let alone replace them. So disasters as well—9/11, Hurricane Katrina strategy for terror threats from viruses to
anything and everything is up for and Mumbai. The warnings came, but assassination plots to nuclear weapons.
questioning, as individuals, communities, people were not properly prepared to
industries and governments work to figure receive them or act on them. It’s clearly Whether or not authorities mine pop
out ways to put things back together in a time to get comprehensive early warning culture resources, there’s no doubt that
more robust and sustainable way. systems working more effectively. technology has a crucial role to play in
early warnings. We’ve seen downsides of
With so many businesses and brands
The trouble is there’s no shortage of technology—how the ease and speed of
hunkering down to make it through the
doomsday warnings out there, from the communications can generate volatile,
economic winter, which ones have the
desire and the resources to play a part in fantasy world of sci-fi to the pragmatic reactive behaviors in the markets, in
rebooting the world’s systems? Could world of science. It’s very hard even for leadership and among the general public.
contributing to the Reboot become an experts to agree on which threats to take However, with the right systems in the
option for corporate social responsibility? seriously and which risks are so remote right hands, technology can also be
Big oil companies such as Shell and BP they can be ignored. But now that we are harnessed to spot emerging threats early
may ironically turn out to be among the enough to head them off or at least
experiencing such distress on a global
best placed to fix the carbon-heavy energy prepare for the consequences. Security
level, people are going to increase their
systems of the world by developing authorities listen for spikes in
expectations of leadership.
carbon-light alternatives.
–> (page 19)

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“2008 is the precursor to a perfect storm like we’ve never seen before. We have
a problem deeper and more fundamental than the financial crisis. Our missteps
could be irreversible. This is not a fringe discussion. ... We need a fundamental
reboot of the system.” —Josette Sheeran, executive director of the UN World Food Program

Oil prices could slump to just $25 a barrel next year, as much of the world sinks
into recession and demand falls, according to the latest predictions from Merrill
Lynch. The U.S. investment bank thinks prices will decline well into next year before
recovering in the second half of 2009. The news came as the International Energy
Agency cut its forecast for world oil demand in the next five years. Oil demand is expected
to grow by just 220,000 barrels a day next year, said the agency, which advises 28 industrialized countries.
The Paris-based agency had previously predicted 350,000 barrels a day. The IEA also expects new investment
in oil refineries to boost crude distillation capacity in the next five years at a faster pace than growth in
demand. —“China Slowdown Could See Oil at $25 a Barrel, Bank Predicts,” by Julia Kollewe, The Guardian (U.K.), December 5, 2008

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 17


“The Queen asked me, ‘If these things were so large, how come everyone missed
them?’ I answered: ‘At every stage, someone was relying on somebody else, and
everyone thought they were doing the right thing.’” —Professor Luis Garicano, director of
research for the London School of Economics management department, on his talk with Britain’s Queen
Elizabeth about the origins and effects of the credit crisis in November

“It did open up minds and hearts a little bit to the notion that if the right man
came along … a black man could be president of the United States. I think we
have a similar approach to who and what we believe the president is.” —Actor Dennis
Haysbert in an interview with TV Guide, on whether his “24” character, African-American President David
Palmer, paved the way in some part for President-elect Barack Obama

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communication that may foretell a breach vibrancy, Chicago is setting the tone for the According to Porter Novelli ConsumerStyles, a
or attack. Global health authorities pool rest of the country. Like any major comprehensive survey of American attitudes,
their observations looking for repeated metropolitan city, Chicago has dealt with its Illinoisans and Chicagoans define themselves as
incidences of viruses. On a more everyday fair share of challenges and scandal. It’s now pragmatic, creative, competitive and family-
level, Google Flu Trends tracks increases grappling with corruption charges in the
oriented. Compared with the general population,
in flu-related online searches, which could governor’s office for the second time in a
indicate an imminent outbreak. row. At press time, laid-off union factory more Chicagoans (64% vs. 57%) are concerned
workers were staging a protest over lack of about the legacy they are leaving for their
In the spirit of the Reboot, if used wisely children. 55% of Chicagoans agree “I can take
warning and pay after a sudden shutdown.
and fairly, the same technologies that have
The company blamed the woes on its actions that will help reduce global warming”
driven Global Panic have a good chance of
creditor, Bank of America—a recent recipient vs. 46% of New Yorkers and 46% of the
providing more effective early warnings.
of $15 billion in federal bailout funds— overall U.S. population.
further infuriating the union. And the
> A HEARTLAND Tribune Company, owner of the city’s As the stock of Chicago rises, watch for
prominent people to strengthen their ties
HOME BASE In barely a year,
largest newspaper, the Chicago Tribune, had
filed for bankruptcy. But the yin to the high- with the city. Who knew that Hillary
the Second City has become the focus of Rodham Clinton was born in Chicago and
pressure yang of the city is its people. Porter
intense global interest, largely thanks to raised in the nearby suburb of Park Ridge?
Novelli surveys show Chicagoans are more
Chicago resident Barack Obama. Deeply Or that Oprah Winfrey has lived there
active than the general U.S. population in
rooted in the heart of America, Chicago is since 1983? Now the city can add the 44th
social causes such as health research,
a microcosm of what’s bubbling to the U.S. President to a roll call that includes
HIV/AIDS, the environment, people with
surface across the nation right now. And in legions of famous Americans: sportsmen
disabilities and public safety; their belief in
the weeks leading up to Obama’s (Michael Jordan), actors (Bill Murray, John
self-organizing initiatives is especially strong.
inauguration January 20, Chicago has Cusack), musicians (Kanye West, Buddy
And the formative influence of Chicago on
become an essential destination for the Guy) and authors (Saul Bellow, Scott
Obama has become part of his success story.
powerful and influential seeking time with Turow). And as the world decides that
When Obama and senior Illinois politicians
the President-elect. Chicago indeed holds a certain cachet of its
and advisors head to Washington, D.C.,
With its combination of pragmatic they’ll take with them their Midwestern, no- own, we’ll see a surge of support for the
Midwestern values and multi-ethnic, big-city nonsense, can-do perspective. city’s bid to host the 2016 Olympic Games.

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 19


BIG QUESTION 4

In the thrifty, post-crash, always-tuned-in


world, where and how will we find personal refuge?

20 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


> THE TRUE THIRD
PLACE Many dimensions of our
lives are total opposites: workplace versus
home, business versus pleasure, real versus
imaginary, inside versus outside. But now
we’re creating a new space that
stands in the middle: a unique,
adaptable Third Place that each
of us tailors using the rich mix
of multimedia available. The
Third Place phenomenon is not
new in itself—the term has long
been used to denote the place where
people retreat that is neither home nor
work. And people have been using media
as a Third Place for a long time, whether
engrossed in a newspaper or magazine,
absorbed in a TV show or sharing a film
with others in a theater.
What’s new is that 21st-century media
provides us all with the means to curate a
Third Place that’s original to each of us.
The range of possible building blocks has
expanded beyond what even sci-fi buffs
could have imagined little more than a
decade ago—multiple layers, both tangible
and virtual. where we connect with people we know or what was and was not for public
have never met, or a lab where we consumption. But the concept is defined
Your Third Place has your personalized experiment and explore, or a playground differently by the younger generation.
maps of media destinations you can drop into where we cut loose and have fun. And
Public figures and wannabe celebrities
regardless of where you may be physically with the economic downturn likely to
invite tame and not-so-tame media outlets
located. It’s a long-legged trend driven by dominate life for a while to come, it’s a
into their homes to photograph their
space where we can get as near to or far
the absolute lust for news, current events, bedrooms and bathrooms, talk about their
from the Reboot as we want. We can
pop culture and escapism, as well as the personal sorrows and joys. Paparazzi
obsessively follow the twists and turns of
expectation that it’s all available anywhere relentlessly pursue anybody whose photo
events, or we can seek lighthearted
at a moment’s notice, at no cost, or at least will sell, with special
diversion and respite. For people
determination to snap the
very cheap. with skills and self-discipline, the
most private moments.
True Third Place will be a
Even in traditional media such as Celebrities and ordinary
great resource, enabling them
television, the range of options has grown people expose
to gain access to the things
enormously with cable and satellite, time- themselves to the
they need in a cost-effective,
shifted programming on DVR, and of judgment of millions
timely way: information,
course DVDs. Then there are all the new on reality shows.
connections, entertainment,
channels opened up by broadband and Leading public figures
distractions. For others who
wireless: podcasts, online versions of such as French First
struggle with life at the best of
traditional media (TV, radio, print), blogs, Lady Carla Bruni and
times, the True Third Place has
Twitter feeds and multiplayer interactive U.S. First Lady–to-be
the potential to become a space
games, not to mention the endless Michelle Obama feel compelled
where they completely disengage from
variations of user-generated content such to share some aspects of their private lives
the practical needs of the real world.
as photo sharing (Flickr), original video (such as Barack Obama’s snoring or his
(YouTube), social networking (MySpace, bad morning breath) in order to ingratiate
Facebook), virtual worlds (Second Life), > NEW MEANINGS OF themselves with the public. As for the rest
instant messaging, text messaging,
multimedia messaging—the permutations
PRIVACY The modern perception of us, our daily movements are captured
on millions of CCTV cameras; our
of privacy is turning into a generational
seem truly infinite. divider. Older people hark back to long- telephone conversations and e-mails may be
held notions as antiquated as rotary monitored; our purchasing preferences and
This True Third Place may feel like a
phones and nine-to-five jobs—to the day Internet browsing habits are tracked; anyone
den where we retreat to shut out the
when there was a clear separation between in the world can peer into our backyard on
world. It may feel like a meet-and-greet
–> (page 23)

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 21


Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook is convinced that with his accurate map of the social
world, he has created an irreplaceable tool for people to stay in touch with, share
with—hell, even feel each other. Eventually, he thinks, if he gathers enough users
and persuades them to share enough, he’ll have a site that no new rival could ever
catch up with. —“Boy Genius of the Year: Do You Trust This Face?” by Alex French, GQ, December 2008

Technology has made casual hookups, and infidelity, simpler than ever: A well-
placed digital photo and a reasonably witty online profile can bring dozens of
responses within a few hours. And there are niche markets for everything (among the
more obscure I’ve come across: love connections for the freakishly tall and even for
devotees of the American writer Ayn Rand. But what a friend of mine calls “the crack cocaine
of online dating” does have its risks. Ultimately, it’s much easier to hide one’s true intentions behind the
anonymity of a keyboard, and to lie. I’ve met men who happily crop out years of their life (and children!) as easily
as the woman standing next to them in their profile picture. Of course, not everyone online is a cheater. Some
people are completely open about their alter egos, and use their avatars to have cybersex on sites such as
Second Life. And many see it purely as a form of escapism, and have no intention of actually meeting in person.
—“Modern Sex: Catherine Townsend Logs on to the New Revolution,” The Independent (U.K.), December 6, 2008

22 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


Google Earth. Determined criminals can Old-style privacy is virtually this approach, the vast majority
hack into our personal data. The World impossible now. And for all will be effectively hidden from
Future Society’s Futurist magazine predicts the talk of civil liberties and view, because they are just
that by the late 2010s, everyone will have human rights, most people ordinary individuals in a vast
their own unique IP address, and all online seem to have accepted that crowd. Personal insights into our
activity and conversation will be recordable nobody has a true right to lives may be universally accessible,
and recoverable. privacy as we once understood but in most cases they will be of
it. Rather than simple interest only to people who are
New attitudes toward privacy are creating discretion, millions of us now connected to us in some way.
headaches for corporations. Digital natives rely on a policy of radical transparency—
may think nothing of sharing personal As we all work through the Reboot and
making our lives an open book. Instead of
hiding everything from view, we manage readjustment period, people will be feeling
information online, but corporations have to
the sharing of our sensitive personal the need to share their sob stories and
beware of confidentiality and legal liability
information by deliberately choosing what heartbreaks online, seeking and giving
issues. Casual throwaway comments about advice and comfort. Our new privacy is
to let people in on, by posting our
coworkers or clients in digital media can end not what we hide from others; it’s what
personal happenings on blogs and social
up being retrieved and reproduced around networking sites. And paradoxically, as lives within our hearts when we feel our
the world. hundreds of millions of people embrace most open and authentic.

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 23


The Internet is the greatest generation gap since rock ’n’ roll. We’re now
witnessing one aspect of that generation gap: The younger generation chats
digitally, and the older generation treats those chats as written
correspondence. Until our CEOs blog, our congressmen Twitter and our world
leaders send each other LOLcats—until we have a Presidential election where
both candidates have a complete history on social networking sites from before
they were teenagers—we aren’t fully an information age society. —“Why Obama
Should Keep His Blackberry—But Won’t,” by Bruce Schneier, The Wall Street Journal, November 21, 2008

Everything you say and do will be recorded by 2030. By the late 2010s, ubiquitous,
unseen nanodevices will provide seamless communication and surveillance among all
people everywhere. Humans will have nanoimplants, facilitating interaction in an omnipresent network. Everyone
will have a unique Internet Protocol (IP) address. Since nano storage capacity is almost limitless, all conversation
and activity will be recorded and recoverable. —”Cybercrime in the Year 2025,” by Gene Stephens, The Futurist, July-Aug 2008

When Kjerstin Erickson decided to start blogging about [her organization’s] problems on [online], her board
discouraged her. It was actually a pretty dumb idea by traditional standards. But Kjerstin was actually doing
something that to her generation (she’s 25) seems completely natural. She was living her life online. —“Radical
Transparency Update,” by Noah Flower, Working Wikily blog, The Monitor Institute, October 31, 2008

A new digital divide has been created between a generation of young Canadians and a generation of managers and
executives they work for. Young people have a unique perception of network privacy, in which they consider
personal information private as long as it is limited to their social network. Organizations reject the notion of
network privacy. They believe that information posted online is public and deserves no protection. —“The Next Digital
Divide: Online Social Network Privacy,” The Privacy and Cyber Crime Institute, Ryerson University

24 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


BIG QUESTION 5

Now that we have experienced a


systemic failure firsthand, how will we
address the looming health care crisis?

> TAKING RISKS The health care crisis looks particularly


acute in the U.S., which spends more per
coverage delivering excellent health
outcomes; but with a fast-aging population,
TO CHANGE HEALTH capita on health care than any other it’s facing unaffordable increases in costs.
CARE No matter how many country and devotes a greater share of
All around the world, cancer, heart
pennies people pinch or cutbacks they GDP to health, without achieving disease, malaria and HIV continue to
make, health care remains an essential. The significantly better outcomes. In fact, at devastate. Chronic conditions such as
trouble is it costs too much. Fixing and least 47 million Americans don’t even have obesity-induced diabetes combined with a
fostering health care is going to be a major health care coverage. But other countries fast-growing elderly population increasingly
imperative for restoring physical, emotional have problems too. Britain’s National threaten to place huge burdens not only on
and economic well-being in the Rebooted Health Service is the world’s third-largest patients, but also on caretakers and health
world. No nation, rich or poor, developed employer (after the Chinese Army and the care systems. The more chronically ill
or emerging, is immune to the problems of Indian State Railways) but ranks only 13th people there are in a society, the more
illness and limited resources. The problems in the Euro Health Consumer Index. physical, financial and emotional resources
are global and so are the opportunities. Japan has successful universal health are tied up. According to a World Bank

–> (page 26)

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 25


study, the European labor force peaked in even revive drugs that failed trials or have Health care has been slow in harnessing the
2008 and will start to decline as more been withdrawn from the market. UCLA power of IT, which means there’s huge
elderly workers retire than there are young professor Gregory Stock recently told the potential for improving efficiency and
workers to take their places. It’s projected Futurist magazine that humanity is ready outcomes with so-called e-health technology.
that by 2011, two thirds of the workforce to pursue biomedical and genetic
The Euro Health Consumer Index says
in developed countries will be part-time enhancement; the money is already being
caregivers. What are the prospects of full- invested. The magazine dubs the 21st information will drive changes, reshaping
time salary earners being willing or able to century search for biomedical and genetic health care as it has reshaped other
become part-timers, staying home to care enhancement the new space race. industries. It expects e-health to drive costs
for aging relatives? down, opening up quicker access to treatment
Patents for branded drugs worth more than
Despite the economic gloom, we see a and advancing patient safety.
$43 billion in annual sales are expected to
lot about health care that offers real hope. Health care is a vital vehicle for growth in
expire by 2009. Large pharmaceutical
Our present painful experience may be just flagging economies. There’s huge potential
what the doctor ordered to focus minds on companies may not be able to depend on cash
for creating win-wins that will unleash new
getting really, really serious about health cows when competitors bring out much levels of scientific, economic and health
care and elder care. Limitless demand has cheaper generic versions of the patented benefits, provided stakeholders can find the
been seen as a growing problem because drugs. The coming years will see a battle of wit and the will to overcome the hurdles of
costs grow fast and resources are limited. wits (and public policy) between big pharma vested interests. With the stakes so high,
But there are huge opportunities to be we’ll see new levels of smart thinking,
companies, generic manufacturers, regulators
seized and markets ready to be served. negotiating and leadership to make health
and health services.
Heartening news is that many smart care a motor for real prosperity.
people have already identified the problems Another encouraging but daunting
ahead and are working on ways to address aspect of health care is that it straddles
them. For example personalized medicine public service and private enterprise,
(which Porter Novelli covered in its most government and corporate. While the
recent Intelligent Dialogue paper) has the health of individuals may be a private
potential to harness genetic analysis to concern, with individual costs and benefits,
make medical treatment far more effective the health of communities is a public issue,
and cost-efficient with better detection of with large-scale social costs and benefits.
illness, more focused therapy and greater Public and private need each other. They
emphasis on preventive medicine. This need to work smarter together to deliver
could reduce the length, cost and failure the outcomes everyone wants at costs that
rate of pharmaceutical clinical trials, and are both manageable and profitable.

26 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


“I’m a self-employed American who can’t afford worthwhile insurance. When
asked about what I do for health insurance, I say I have the Thailand express
health plan. With the cheapest insurance that I can afford leaving me with a
$5000 deductible, it seems that I might as well stretch my dollar and recover
from treatment on a beach for two weeks. I’ve done the math, and it still comes
out cheaper than health care in the United States.” —Gary, commenter, NPR Talk of the
Nation blog

Mr. Brin was therefore setting a public example with his announcement at (Google’s
most recent) Zeitgeist (that he has inherited a gene called LRRK2 that appears to
predispose carriers to familial Parkinson’s). Let everybody discover their genomes … and then feel
comfortable sharing the code so that others—patients, doctors, researchers—can get to work crunching the
data and looking for the bugs. Throughout history, the prospect of greater access to knowledge has frightened
some people. But those are not the people that Sergey Brin mixes with in Silicon Valley. —“Brain Scan:
Enlightenment Man,” Economist, December 4, 2008

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 27


The market frenzy that sent the world of finance cooking up dizzyingly exotic
products might have also derailed the hopes of young professionals who
previously considered paths less stable than finance. The Gilded Epoch,
where bankers could sit back, relax and watch the money roll in may be
over, but if unemployment sparks any dormant creative channels, we could
be entering a new kind of Renaissance. It’s said that necessity is the
mother of invention. Now, perhaps, recession may be. —“The Lost Age of Bankers,”
by City Girl of the London Paper, Vanity Fair Daily’s Politics & Power blog, November 25, 2008

28 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


IN CONCLUSION

PROFOUND CHANGES are happening times of war. By its very nature, change is what’s possible and what needs changing.
fast—faster than we have ever experienced. a state of chronic questioning, in which For all the distress of the economic crisis, the
Many will be spontaneous, driven by people are prone to playing out difficulties will create opportunities for new
uncontrollable circumstances. Some will catastrophic scenarios in their minds. thinking at every level—self, community,
be voluntary but reactive—quick, Band- business, government and world.
Anxiety will begin to subside only when
Aid solutions to acute problems. That’s people start to believe in a new kind of In a time of simultaneous deep
inevitable, because just about everybody success, set long-term objectives and look insecurity and great hope, we confront
is behind the curve of change, even those for strategies for moving toward those the opportunity for more intelligent
in the highest levels of leadership. objectives. Rebooting isn’t about getting leadership at every level. We have to ask
Change will create a degree of everything back to the status quo, it’s about smart, strategic questions that spark
uncertainty most societies haven’t moving toward a smarter status quo with a Intelligent Dialogue and articulate
experienced for generations except in new understanding of what’s desirable, objectives that galvanize and inspire.

Many Minds. Singular Results. INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW 29


PICTURE CREDITS
COVER: PAGE 14:
Creative Commons/RetniaFunk Creative Commons/didbygraham
PAGE 3: PAGE 15:
Creative Commons/dannoll Creative Commons/Andrew*
PAGE 4: PAGE 16:
Creative Commons/propfaqs Creative Commons/Liu Ying/World Economic Forum
PAGE 5: PAGE 17:
Creative Commons/DerrickT Creative Commons/madmetal
PAGE 6: PAGE 18:
(from top) Creative Commons/Mauro “Kilamdil” Monti
Creative Commons/Brent and Marilynn
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Creative Commons/ninjapoodles
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(clockwise from top left) PAGE 25:
Creative Commons/chad davis Creative Commons/ninjapoodles
Creative Commons/joxifx
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Creative Commons/Joe Crimmings Photography
Creative Commons/Waldo Jaquith
Creative Commons/Rubenstein/Martyna Borowski
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Creative Commons/World Economic Forum/Remy Steinegger
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Creative Commons/aflcio2008 PAGE 29:
Creative Commons/Graham Girard/greenforall.org Creative Commons/monterd

30 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: CHANGE IS NOW Many Minds. Singular Results.


The Porter Novelli
INTELLIGENTDIALOGUE
Principle
WHAT PORTER NOVELLI UNIQUELY OFFERS
can be summed up in two words: Intelligent Influence. The basis for
Intelligent Influence is Intelligent Dialogue. As yesterday’s mass
media morph into today’s interactive media, people expect to talk
back at journalists and opinion leaders. Yesterday’s way was set-
piece monologues broadcast to passive audiences by powerful
brands and media owners. Today’s way is fluid, evolving dialogues
conducted across multiple, linked channels. Ongoing dialogue is
now possible and is truly the best basis of dynamic long-term
relationships. Easy sound-bite answers are seductive; they give a
comforting but illusory sense of resolution. Instead, we need to
cultivate open, questioning minds that ask smart, creative questions.
Smart questions spark Intelligent Dialogue, open up thinking and
tap into the power of many minds. Join the conversation on our
Intelligent Dialogue blog, at PNIntelligentDialogue.com.

PORTER NOVELLI was founded in Washington, D.C., in 1972 and is a part of


Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE: OMC) (omnicomgroup.com). With 100 offices in
60 countries, we take a 360-degree view of clients’ business to build
powerful communications programs that resonate with critical stakeholders.
Our reputation is built on our foundation in strategic planning and insights
generation and our ability to adopt a media-neutral approach. We ensure
our clients achieve Intelligent Influence, systematically mapping the most
effective interactions, making them happen and measuring the outcome.
Many minds. Singular results.

CONTACT: Marian Salzman, Chief Marketing Officer, Porter Novelli


Worldwide, 75 Varick Street, 6th floor, New York, New York 10013; 212.601.8034;
marian.salzman@porternovelli.com
Porter Novelli Worldwide
75 Varick Street, 6th floor
New York, NY 10013
porternovelli.com

Join the dialogue by visiting PNIntelligentDialogue.com