Economic History Association

The Impact of Globalization in the Roman Empire, 200 BC-AD 100 Author(s): Ryan M. Geraghty Source: The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 67, No. 4 (Dec., 2007), pp. 1036-1061 Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Economic History Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40056408 . Accessed: 28/08/2013 13:42
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TheImpact inthe Roman ofGlobalization 100 200 BC-AD Empire,
Ryan M. Geraghty
to a general The article modelto describe Italy'sresponse employs equilibrium of theRoman and factor market theexpansion commodity integration during a comprehensive of the Italian constructs Empire.This novel approach story on controthat and sheds corroborates established economy developments light versial andunanswered The success of the model supports arguments questions. was a that Romans wererational economic actors andthat theRomaneconomy market well-integrated system.

standard tenet ofeconomics is that ortheintegration globalization, ofworldcommodity and factor has profound andpredictmarkets, able effects an andinresource mix, allocation, upon economy's output come distribution. To studyglobalization and its effects, economists construct that of the domestic models tell the general equilibrium story ofmarket historian has employed Yet no economic impact integration.1 of theRoman to the general equilibrium techniques study development ofimpeoverthedegree imperial economy. Sparsedataanduncertainty rialmarket theapand Romans' rationalism make economic integration of these modelsdifficult.2 While acknowledging plication traditional thisarticle a generalequilibrium modelto tell a limitations, employs coherent of Italian Rome's expanstory during peninsular development sionfrom 200 BCto AD 100.The novelty is theuse ofa ofthisapproach of Italianecoformalized economicmodelto portray a broadpicture of nomicdevelopment, and thepurpose, questions beyondaddressing a Romanhistory, is to arguethat such models is powerful constructing method ofstudying ancient history. Historians make valid arguments thatRome's economicexpansion farmers had muted effects on theItalianeconomy, becausesubsistence did notrespond to market incentives and becauseRomansweremotiIn addivatedmoreby cultural thanby economics.3 and social factors theories contend thatit is a mistake to project modern tion,historians
The Journalof EconomicHistory, Vol. 67, No. 4 (December2007). © The Economic Association. All rights reserved. ISSN 0022-0507. History 2124 Ashland SantaMonica,CA 90405. E-mail:ryan.geraghty Avenue, RyanM. Geraghty, @gmail.com. I am grateful for continuous adviceandcriticism from Foote, Williamson, Christopher Jeffrey Peter All errors, ofcourse, areminealone. andMatthew Weinzierl. Temin, Jones, Christopher andO'Rourke, "Did theGreat Irish Famine." Williamson, Inequality: 2 theDebate." Sailer, "Framing andFinley, Ancient "Famine"; Garnsey, Economy.

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coherent and are which models on of the existing explanations questions many whatwe focused. thedebates addresses thataddresses view of Italianeconomicdevelopment single.The success of the model in predicting singularly the on more coneconomic knowofItalian history supports predictions and martheassumptions of economic troversial rationality questions. Although and Peter Temin cataworked that markets slowly imperfectly. rationality andthehistorical evidence of theresulting predictions (or lackthereof) thus model's and of the an assessment assumptions indirectly provides a themodelprovides described above.Transforming Reden.howRomeand forother theseideas forancient to challenging ever. argue displayed in their of landedestatesand in their decisions management tionality aboutmigration.5 that Romans economic rasomescholars Forexample.Management. Garnsey.and the approachitself. tant. 169. accepts and concludes use of pricesacrossthe empire loguesthewidespread "functioned as partof a singlecomprehensive thatRomanprovinces market. andKehoe."7 Whereas arguethat "singleeconomic nor reliant markets for thefulwas neither rialeconomy upon integrated that was an conclude themarket fillment ofneeds. sented My aim.Impact ofGlobalization 1037 in fundamentally different ontopast societiesthatfunctioned ways. 5 Scheideland von Traditional and Schultz. Ancient Cities.178. ".22. Morley. ofmore refined thedevelopment tialtomerit 4 Land.others system imporintheempire." p. processand themodelpreconstructing is onlyto hereis basic and oversimplified. 10. Rathbone. Economy.Of thatunderlay ket integration a modelis an iterative course. places. andWhittaker. "Metropolis "Development".andWhittaker.however. develop speakdirectly based on theassumptions of theItalianeconomy understanding ceptual market The consistency and economic ofperfect integration. Finley. 9 "Market Temin. p. has to ancient that this readers convince history enough potenapproach andapplicable models. Economy. Economy. the model. Agriculture. Ancient Economy.27 on Wed. Ancient Finley."Introduction". This content downloaded from 159. Land. Finley.8 he modeofexchange ifnotthedominant. Rather than thecontradictory teractions snippets I and then formalize a conto these than debates.6 in debatefocuses on theimportance ofmarkets controversial Another to whichimperial markets functioned as a Romanlifeand theextent somehistorians theimpeunit. muchof their recent have dedicated Economichistorians work.In addition."9 Mediterranean whatRoman thesedebatesdirectly knowing requires Approaching of their ina more or werethinking citizens comprehensive knowledge that we possesstoday. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .

goods.11 Livestock was prevalent further from citiesin Italy's 10 "Did theGreat Irish Economics. "Development. thanprecisepredictions. the model but realistic. Finally. provinces Italy's and livestock reflect themainsectors Grain.178.10 The model's analysisand will be described such as factor and endowments inputsare the exogenousvariables. thecausedependent economy By understanding and-effect in the Italian andestablishing howthe relationships economy variables evolvedovertimeas a result of imperial exogenous expantheeffects of expansion on themodel'sendogesion. fragments provide picture past. mainfactors of consists of three My modelof theRomaneconomy and slaves four final and sectors productionland.feed and manure. Famine". of theeconomy.27 on Wed. making simple in thesubsistence-based andwine. Jongman.urban production.one can measure nousoutputs. the of Together application economic these a of the logic. The provide goods modelalso includes theannona. goods and urbangoods. andSodersten andReed. probably retaindatamaketheprecise in of the more studies predictions possible howcentpast unattainable.is thebroadpicture thatour economicreasoning and the availableevidenceconvey.International O'Rourke.and studies demographic centagricultural with economies. of the Italian itself. percent agriculture cultivable areas.free to the grain provided populaceof Romeby theimperial the taxesexpropriated from government. wine. close the model and finance trade deficit. A GENERAL MODEL OF ROME EQUILIBRIUM The general modelpresented hereis an integrated collecequilibrium tionofcommodity andfactor markets driven and and demand bysupply theentirety oftheItalian The modelretogether representing economy.Two intermediate wine. labor. tradable in theempire determined as a wholeandincommodity prices. primary ment and other of morererecords.1038 Geraghty Economichistorians models haveyetto employ general equilibrium in thestudy oftheancient anduncerbecausethelimited past. grain. several that are of quires simplifying assumption typical general equilibrium in whatfollows.The lackofdocumentation from ancient Romemakestheavailableevidence a diverse of andgovernsources array archaeological findings. realistic links between final sectors. theprimary in constituted 85 of the luxury good.livestock. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . thepricesoftradable including goodsandresource inputs andthequantities ofresources dedicated to eachsector. 1' andRathbone.22. Economy. models. More important of theItalianeconomy and its development ever." This content downloaded from 159. thepriGrain. mary commodity imperial economy.

Brunt. 152). The quantity of laborwas such driven as and shocks. Wars were also highly expensive. tioninplaceto simplify that factor The modelalso assumes endowments of labor. goodsweretraded populations. HanLand." tine indicatesthe relativeimportanceof the different animals: 40 percentpigs.27 on Wed.and landwereexogenous to theItalianeconomy.assuming plots. Scheidel. and Harris. slaves. Metropolis. See Shorter. 1". Toynbee. and Toynbee. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy.178. and Yeo.2". grew. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . housing peopleandpossessing theimpact in underwealth.Impact ofGlobalization 1039 all producaltitude pastureland. Hannibal's Legacy.andurban Although grain. by primarily bring to agriculture vationas thereturns forces.p.18 The quantity of landin use was motivated both expansion economic the desire to new lands under cultiforces.Metropolis. urbanand rural ironware.Economic Survey. Morley.14 towns for local consumption. implyingthat the slave supply only responded to immense variationin price. standing grain assumpthemodel. Metropolis.and by noneconomic thepushing of peasants their old ancestral landto ejectedfrom namely moremarginal thatfactor endowments are Overall. Brunt.and Roman victoriesoftenprovided thousands of slaves from single battles. 17 Scheidel. This assumesthat Italywas small to theimperial as a wholeanddidnotimpact economy compared prices in imperial markets.19 12 An excavation at the PalaMorley. Frank. livestock pricesare not tradable whereas and urban are modelitself. and other metalproducts. goods prices in imperial and determined markets.hightransportation provincials migrating numbers to take of Italian economic Similarge advantage prosperity.13 thelack of refrigeration andthehighcostof landtranslongdistances. "Land and Sea Transportation. glassware. but the quest forMediterranean In fact. in livestock between made trade Italyand therestof theempire port Italian livestock was delivered Transported "bythehoof. larly.Urbangoods. supremacy." The desire foradditionalslaves partiallymotivatedsome Roman wars. dependent of in the slaves wars of for territorial mostly winning conquests fought or defense. 16 Italian Manpower. 19 Italian Manpower. "Land and Sea Transportation. a determined was Italy significant imperial fiveofits50 million muchofits market." prohibitive. 20 percentfowl. Yeo.and other formsof booty were usually more important. Rome."Roman Slave Trade.furniture.whichrepresent higher in and towns tion cities cloth. prisonerswere oftenunforeseenconsequences of conflicts. help differentiate over wine. including pottery. In fact.17 thequantity of slaveswas largely on political shocks. tradable wine.22. nibal 's Legacy: and Whittaker.16 of domestic markets ThoughI consider I leavethesmallopeneconomy andwineprices.15 tonearby and determined within the Thus.political prestige. grain. 30 percentsheep or goats. "Human Mobility in Roman Italy.Metropolis. This content downloaded from 159.and 10 percentcattle(Morley. bypolitical primarily conscription colonizacostsprevented from in tion." 15 Morley.

Arable Cultivation.For example. employed this free and slave labor and captures understanding byseparating byposdifferent functions for andwine. theprospect to of freegrain was probably appealing peasantsfarfrom their theannona'sreRome.178. consistent exogenousis largely and at themodel. evenly among With themodelbroadly I nowdelveintoanddescribe its established.24 Forthisreason. frequent was moreprofitably in wine production. 24 Rosafio. received the imand its in that its the historical record annona. "Development. Appendix summary This content downloaded from 159.22 Peasants and their overall the reliability presence excluded themselves from on largeestatesalongside slavesfor working cultural intense reasons. Corn Supply. peak man residents. of the For thepurposes I assume that the and annona was free its existence model. 250 daysperyear. production requires tensive laborthroughout thegrowing season. slavelarather than free labor with and more lax work its absences bor. cheaper peasant 22 Hopkins. or 5-10 percent of theItalianpopulation.21 Peasant absences to fight peasants reduced their on farm." 25 Rickman.25 pacton thecontentment In addition. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . prominence suggest oftheRomanpopulacewas greater than that. prices torendowments The most affect and factor imporcommodity prices. peasants.23 whilegrain Furthermore. Though thismodelpositsa differentiation between freeand slave laborand the income that basedon shares receive from andwineproduction. Slavery. incommodity andfacwhich determine howchanges parameters. iting production grain The modelincludes theannona.22. throughout distributed urban residents.000Rotivating peasant migration capitol. landuse this time andusefully slaves.20 harder their different characteristics Slaves worked than wars andlonger wouldtolerate.orthedole offree by grain provided theimperial becauseitwas a significant sourceof income government. they grain in Romansociety.1040 Geraghty withwhatwe knowof Italianlabor. "Slaves. thatpeasants and Rathbone.26 tant define whichand in whatproportion ofprothefactors parameters 20 Phillips. 23 Morley. Conquerors.motivating despite migration striction to onlya slice of Romanresidents. for urban residents andprobably an important factor mopsychological to At the its some 300. whereas slaveswerefully and worked employed This shedslight on calculations of laborand slave costs. simplifies in latersocieties slavesand laborare often close substitutes." Spurrestimates worked150 daysperyear.Metropolis.27 on Wed. than labor. 26See Tables4-7 for a complete ofthemodel'sparameters. Spun*. Rathbone assumesthat laborand slavesworked that than thesameamount and calculates slavesweremoreexpensive free for make slave labor the shorter work would however. production requires laboronlyduring inwine constant and peakseason. The model habits. Accounting peasant year.

or 0. combination with later subsistence and texts. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . dependence largely and laboris described slavesoverfree above. 27 Again.6 cullei per iugerumearns a revenue of HS 16. comparisons agronomist commodities of the themselves us knowledge agricultural provide the revenues weresplit.29 ofproduction ofeachfactor theshare of freelaborand Urbangoods are produced by some combination I free relative slaves. See Duncan-Jones. and Rathbone. as peasants satisfiedtheirsubsistence only partiallywith grain. Jongman'sstudyof Pompeii provides evidence thatthe agworkforceand land rentseach absorbed half of total grain yields. fourpossessed a plot of about ten iugera. quired less intensive labor than did wine throughout to theirstatus. growinggrainwas not viewed as detrimental to a varietyof subsistenceeconomies.See Rathbone.3 of total revenue.which is consistent 29Wine was far more labor-intensive than grain.27 on Wed. unlike wine.28 labor is divided amongst output on theother demands slavesand Wineproduction. Subsistence requirements tion.anditslaborintensiveness make slaves more than land as land value over important density high Romanfarmers on their texts well. See White.assumethat of urban theoutput laborand slavesshared production evenly.Cato's ideal vineyardof 100 iugera withyields of 1.slaves. and his estimateof land rentsamountto HS 5.labor.000 per annum fora 100 iugera plot for0. Finally. requiring25 to 35 days per iugerumcompared to grain's 10 to 15.400 (assuming 16 slaves at a price of HS 2. to prosmalladditions thanwine forthe reasonsdescribed duce grainrather previously.Whatmatters of how commodity hereare picture buttheoverallpicture of how resources combine to notexactfigures output. and.000 per annum."Development. with manure and slaves contributing and slaves requires reducingthese proportions remaining0." Columella's prescriptionof one part free labor foreach threeparts slave labor leads a value of 0. generate a combination of freelaborand landwith Grainproduction requires Romanpeasantstended of slaves and manure.178.2 of total product.000 and at a slave cost of HS 6. Evans estimatesproduced approximately 250 modii of grain per annum forrevenue of HS 1.15 for labor.As no dataexiston their importance. and Duncan-Jones. Including manure ricultural the to 0. See Clark and Haswell. "Development. grain's cyclical naturebettersuited theirabsences fromthe farmforwar.and Spurr. around0." This content downloaded from 159. economies. Economics. Roman Farming'. The calibrationof neoclassical productionfunctions includingItaly and Africa. shows thatland's share of gross product is approximatelyone-half.and land theproduction duction A of Romancontemporary and sale of each commodity.22.Impact ofGlobalization 1041 .receiveincomefrom .Agronomist educating contemporary from which we can infer a of wine production paint picture vineyards inwineoutput.Economy.Arable Cultivation.5 of theirproduct.intensively the other factors of Wine's on excludes production. which J. K. "Wheat Producamount to 0. Economy.4-0. See Jongman.000 each amortizedover ten years withan additional subsistencecost of 50 modii of grain at HS 4 per modius).Economy.27 in laterperiods on grainproduction textsand research Agronomist this andadd information on howagricultural corroborate picture largely the force and landowners. A more detailed analysis of Roman An average plebeian familyof grainfanningbased on the agronomisttextssupportthis finding. grain rethe growing season. hand.peasant labor amounts to withour earlierestimate. See Evans.56 of total production".4 of total revenue.4.

and livestock.9 million without proximately persons See Jongman. See Morley. production. I use a landshareof 0. incomes agreethatlaborers spentapproximately See Garnsey. Economy.I applyKevin relatively O'Rourke's findings on livestock's factorincome shares in preindustrial Ireland totheRomaneconomy.22. powerful ways. See Morley.produced andlivestock consumption. 15.1042 Geraghty livestock production intensively employsland and feed and requires little labor." Metropolis. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Giventheimprecise the nature of thedata.178. I estimate that about85 percent of Italy'slandunder cultivation tropolis. texts ancient Thoughincomeelasticities suggest winewas themostimportant followed consumption good forthewealthy.My explains or theexogenous shocksto theItalianeconomy.leaving25 percent of their incomes forwine wages.5.32 Landlords andslaveownrequirements ersspendtheir incomes on wine. affected thedecisions of economicactorsand caused ripplesthroughout To the economy. completely 30 O'Rourke. 32Historians 75 percent of their on grain. I assumethat with nearsubtheir Famine. This content downloaded from 159.I examine model'soutput for a broadrange ofparameters. a feedshareof 0.15 basedon O'Rourke'sfigures.30 Otherparameters are the initialconditions of theRomaneconomy andtheincome and slaveowners. in slaves.urdominated butlacking economy bygrain production and livestock in and abundant labor and land butscarce ban. that their consumpimplying grain tionwas similarly trivial. that are notknown. elasticities of free labor.33 Moredetailed andexplanations areincluded parameter specifications in theAppendix. by urban products andthen livestock. The wealthy a trivial formed amount ofthepopulation. produced grain." p. As limited data existforRome. their the we must first understand more study consequences.35 anda slaveshare of0. production.urban reflecting goods."Did theGreatIrishFamine. to whomall slave incomeaccrues. sistence urbangoods at home. I estimate a 0. andSpurr. withthe remainder of thelaborforcealmostentirely Mededicated to grainproduction. "Wine.31 Incomeelasticities definehow each factor of production the it earns and thus incomes are redirected affects how spends money to the consumption of othergoods. their wealth on covluxuries and theease with which greater spent they eredtheir subsistence needs.The initialconditions an describe Italian in wine. Free labor primarily spendsits on subsistence and then on other small money goods spends portions once subsistence aresatisfied. apthat amount was required to support itspopulation of 4.10 urbanlaborsharebased on thesize of Romansewersystems. laborers. andPurcell. landowners.27 on Wed. ArableCultivation. IMPERIAL EXPANSION AND THE EXOGENOUS SHOCKS TO THE ITALIAN ECONOMY the natureof the Italianeconomyin Imperialexpansionaffected model howthedirect effects ofexpansion. The remainder of thelandwas spenton wineor beef grainimports.

and growth of theannona dercultivation." This content downloaded from 159. based on the amount of slaves required for grain. in which slave populations formedapproximately30 percent of the total costs in those economies permitteda higher degree of spepopulation." Higher estimatesof around 2 million slaves depend on estimatesof slave populations in laterperiods. Brazil.and urban production.35 of slave 200 in 200 BC. 2). range people. and Scheidel. Estimates 500. prices cause-and-effect that drive I describe boththeunderlying relationships and the available data. these changes mostapparent in the The exogenousshockto the Italianeconomy is thetremendous of the slave after record historical growth population influx of slaves from wars than more 200 BC. provagainst we do thepathofItalian incesdetermined population growth.27 on Wed.2 million estimate whatmatters are unimportant. those that aremore uncertain theambiguous before addressing change in and the rise wine and urban in grain goodsprices.it is clear remained constant thepopulation notknowwhether 34 See Appendix Table 2 fora summaryof the exogenous shocks consideredin the model.2 million. Italian Manpower. 38 The main source of growth was natural increase.2.Impact ofGlobalization 1043 andthedegree of certainty andprecision shocks to theItalian economy I know them. 37 Scheidel. Throughout. Scheidel's estimates(Human Mobility in Roman Italy.than was possible in the Roman period.2. Scheidel estimatesthatthe ruralnet rate of increase produces a 100 percentrise in the population by ad 14. however. livestock.37 Of course. The constant provincial rates andhigh rates ofmanumission andin fact slaves' highdeath offset all of Italy'spopulation forvirtually thispeaccounted growth during thatItaly's slave population estimate was roughly Historians riod. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy. a high figuregiven the rapid death and manumissionrates experienced by the slave population.22. such as the antebellumSouth. A combinationof high urban death rates. records slaveswonfrom victobasedon warandeconomic cataloguing 2 1. balanceof natural or declinedslightly constant reproand colonization of the death duction rates. This makes the 30 percentfigure improbablyhigh for Roman society.forcedcolonization.amount to 1. of Italy'stotal Examining population. torsaffecting theprecisefigures slaves in 1 BC.178. See Scheidel. Instead. 1. 36 Ibid. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy." Brunt. expansion confidently thedeclinein freelabor. is the calculations based on historians' intheItalian slavepopulation oftwoormore. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy.wine. up percent I havemostcontheestimates. and the Caribbean.3 First describe those that we with whichwe knowmore in the rise the slave the of landunpopulation. and high militarization rates reduce offsetthis source of growthand resultin a small decline by most estimates.2 to million or to 30 from riesandtrades. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . cleargrowth bya factor that thefree ofItalystayed wellestablished It is also fairly population A after 200 BC.36 of thedemographic in Walter Scheidel'sdetailed facfidence analysis whichleads himto a conservative theslave population. Lower transportation cialization. conscription.000 Italy's population yearslater.38 Though or fell. of 1. Based on eighteenth-century data.

peoplefor percapita. figures arrive at different butroughly similar estimates. inRoman andScheidel. that estimates Hopkins Italy'spopulation ranged from 4. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . period. probably The prominence of theannonain thehistorical record allowsus to its the sold Senate precisely quantify growth.In thesecond population theannonadistributes million or 40 modiitimes to 1.000Romancitizens. Metropolis.3 million of4. Other historians Italy. Conquerors'. Originally.1044 Geraghty that theburden ofimperial which that free peasants expansion. Hannibal'sLegacy. though and the evidenceexiststo support theclaim. "Human Brunt. period. driving the data are lacking. Hannibal 's Legacy. 44 CornSupply.Gains in totalpopulation of provincial markets raisedthereturns of agriculture.178.0 million to4.22.44 reduced 300.2 modii. ItalianManpower." Garnsey. modii.and. Brunt's middle-of-the-road estimate. from and compute thequantity of graindistributed graindistributions inception percapita. Morley." I use Brunt's in225 BCand4. Scheideluses 4 millionin both225 BC and ad 14 in his calculation ofnetmigration rates.000foran averageof 5 modiipercapita. making opening land and slave ownlands and wealthier marginal profitable motivating of Italy ers to push peasantsto thosemarginal lands.000recipients. Toynbee. To include theannonain themodel.000.27 on Wed. Havingexamined figures range. Thoughthearchaeologicalrecordprovidesevidenceof expansionat thistime. 200.I assumethat itinvolved free Rickman. andToynbee. point by 1 BC as thedrainof overwhelmed natural imperial expansion reproduction. onlythesettlements tusin 59 BCand30-25 bc succeeded in avoiding theappropriation oflandsfrom thus.000Romanresidents at a costof HS 1. soldier landsettlements contributed inthelandendowment to a gainof 5 percent each assuming landallotment consisted of5-10 iugera. drainon thefreelaborpopulation and stymied population anymaterial Most estimates to a modest decline gain.the major factors theuse of land all pointto greater landuse after 200 BC. plots.4 million inad 14.40 The recovery to from theHannibalic Warin thelatethird BCalso contributed century in the size of land use. representing This content downloaded from 159.43 However.000recipients. up to 40 modii of grainto about50. growth landand thedegree to whichthesesettlements didnotdisturb existing the of after wars soldiers settlement holders.4 million within I settled on this byad 14. of grain to an urban of 400. practice granting rights by 2 itself expandedland undercultivation by 5 percent.an expansionin land undercultivation though occurred.41 Based on the number of soldiers. Brunt determines that ofCaesarandAugusBrunt. required in was a significant serve the armyand populateforeign provinces.39 folThe expansion oflandunder cultivation this clearly during period little reliable lows from ourknowledge of Italiandevelopment.theannonaprovided 40 modiiof freegrainto nearly a number later to200.the lack of preserved remains from theprior perioddoes notnecessarily indicatethatareas were uninhabited. eight million an average of6 2/3modii a gainofone-third. 39 ItalianManpower.In thefirst theannonadistributes twomillion or 40 modiitimes50. By 54 BC. Hopkins. peasants.5 permodius. Mobility 1. 43 "Famine.

"Feeding Rome. 47 Temin.raising grainprices. The lack of consistent of land data use. "Taxes". . 154.commodity By thefirst century goods. . Whataffected of in provinces overseas.p. and Laurence.48 in Romewas . 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . . grain imports percent Egypt forItalian wine." 9 ofcornshipsin storms andthedestruction shipping. . In his analysisof supplying the city of Rome. growth risein thenumber of shipdata displaya threefold trade. proxy century voyages.an examination suggests the empire.Economy.27 on Wed. the ofprovinces. tioncostsby the first language century in and urban wine a had nomictheory. expansion geststhatimperial for new markets Italian wine. among otherfactors. "Market Economy".22. suggests significant expansion especially long-distance of traded in thequantity AD. . Kessler." 46 AncientShipwrecks.Corn Supply. "Feeding Rome"."Italian Wine. secondly. pricesin were and the markets. . Indeed.provided pressing Italianwineprices.90 percent to converge. . "Land Transport. and Tchernia. thatcommodity the growth of tradesuggests In addition. and convergence prices. The growth ofthemoney which was used BC. Imperial provinces Italy of for 50-75 accounted and North Africa. in Italy andintheprovinces prices a significant correlation between andItalDavid Kesslerfinds Egyptian to shocksin Egyptin a prewithItalianpricesresponding ian prices. .178. thecreation of the Mediterraof roads and canals. and Duncan-Jones.50 Thissugof demand to Romeandat least25 percent deof provincial led to an influx grain. century a for exchanges. primarily converging." This content downloaded from 159. dictablemanner. makesanyconclusions Howpricecomparisons of theevidence that there was a signifiever.45 Shipwreck from the third for the number of BCto a wrecks. Forexample.47 werehighly correlated. [that] that "thesituation concludes Rickman Geoffrey the were not so relevant the local resources by periodof earlyEmthefailure of theRomanmarket morewas first pire.and thepacifying construction in imperial led to a substantial nean. .46 thefirst supply. to both cant expansionin tradethroughout contributing in Italyandtheprovinces between correlations commodity prices strong Italianand provincial between 200 BC. Greene. price degree from drawn tentative. Parker. and the annona. 48 Kessler. "Market Economy". advantage comparative Italy 45 Hopkins." Kessler. "Feeding Rome.After thedispersion ofthemilitary andcoinage. Temin.according provinces and was due to between transportaItaly Egypt pricedifferential grain x In the of classical ecoAD.Impact ofGlobalization 1045 200 BC is less clearthan The evolution of commodity the pricesafter the moreestablished changesin the slave and freelaborpopulations.and caused grainand wine pricesin Italyand its of the to Kessler. harvests inadequate supplies at seas .Archaeology." 49 Rickman.

slavesandan urban laborforce) anda comparative in whatItaly intensively disadvantage grain(because grainemployed in land). faced dodemand from the rest of the and from goods greater empire mesticconsumers. to infer a priceofHS 4 permodius at theclose ofthefirst permonth ad.buta pricein SicilyofHS 3-3. See Duncanthefoodshortages of ad 19 and ad 64. constant and moderate cluding prices pricegrowth. The following thepredictions ofthe sections address economy .5 permodius century thattheItalianpricewas HS 5-6 per modiusin thefirst BC.53 Whereasthe data tentatively indicatethatwine rose over our the data on urban prices period.probably from HS 8 to HS 64 inthefirst See Duncanmarks. The opening pulledItaly'sgrain pricesin opposite theprovinces Italthe of substantially expanded supply grain reaching ian markets andplaceddownward on grain Meanwhile. goodspriceshigher. phora.Few dataexistforItaly permodius during inthelatesecondcentury andearly first BC." Purcell." an exaggeration.22. points 53 "Wine.1046 Geraghty whatItalyposgoods production (because theyemployed intensively sessedinabundance. With I nowexamine affectthis broadpicture thefactors established. in thesecondcentury an averagewinepriceof HS 10 peramCato. See Rickman.the economyassumption model'sresults are consistent inacrossa rangeof grain pricechanges.178.employs Two centuries Columellauses an averagewine later. ranging century. 52DuncanJones uses Trajan'salimentary which ofHS 16 scheme. possessed scarcity.See Rathbone. TiJones.See Garnsey. suggests century CornSupply. Economy. This content downloaded from 159. Thistentatively toa decline from HS 5 to HS 4 overourperiod. pressure prices. goods pricesare nonexistent. Economic available ing commodity prices forces of directions. Jones. and theconversion of resources from grain producing to other reduced Italian The goods supply.first model that those areconsistent with evidence establish to existing themodel's credibility and thenthosethataddressmorecontroversial issues. However.54 Our understanding of directional changesand approximate magnitudesis sufficient to drawlogicalconclusions of aboutthedevelopment theItalianeconomy from ourconceptual framework of howtheItalian worked. Famine. Pricescouldvarysignificantly around thesebenchpriceof HS 15. andafter theHannibalic War. pushing priceshigher. primarily growth Italy's population. Unlikethecase of grain. low pricefigpriceceilings curiously uresthat low market HS 1 andHS 10 Pricesfluctuated between suggest correspondingly prices. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . century Economy.writing BC.52 For thepurposes of the model. "Development. provided boysallowances andgirlsHS 10 permonth.I followthe smallopen and hold thatgrainprices fell. path of grain becomesan empirical on which thedataareinprices question conclusive. in and the data more detail. indomestic in the total factors. creaseddemand. During berius andNero imposed of HS 2 and HS 3 permodius. economic forces unambiguously pressured wineandurban After 200 both wine and urban BC.27 on Wed.

perfect in success the model's known economic deNonetheless. transfer follows fromits simplifyThe model's overestimate thanthemostlikelyhistorical directly reality. these limitationsdo not call into thatthemodel conveys.Impact ofGlobalization RESULTSAND INTERPRETATION 1047 does themodelpredict? The model'sresults turn outto What. slaves cheaperand wine production relatively from to wine and redirect resources Romans grain production.22. openeconomy. exposing andeconomic markets rationality. Among comforting in the Italian economyafter developments major. and thebulkof Italianwealthderives pansionwhilelandowners andpeoplefrom theprovinces. These changes resultfroma rangingfroma threefold This magnitudeis fargreater of 51 percentof Italy's land fromgrainto wine production. In this saturatedmarketenvironment the amountof of more wine would reduce prices. the thedegree ofthistransition. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .57 55 See Appendix Table 3 fora summaryof the model's predictions. and that20 percentof Italy's cultivablearea would have produced enough wine for where few resources are able to satisfy the entireempire.does not account forthisphenomenonbecause on imperialmarket does not have an effect it assumes thatItalianproduction prices. As I discuss. with the available evidence. See Jongman. "Slavery. On consistent the other the hand. though production grain In themodel. acrossa broadrangeof plausibleparameter be consistent values and the model's directional are Moreover.grainimports grew by a factorof 6-12. gain to a fivefoldgain." questiontheconceptualstory The model predictsthatwine exportsgrow by a factorof 20 and grain importsby a factor of 17. See Garnseyand Sailer.27 on Wed.178. because of thisand othersimplifying assumptionsthe model cannot be used as an analytical tool to make quantitative predictions. This is given which is typicalin computablegeneralequilibriummodby the small open economyassumption.Jongman'sanalysis estimates thatno more than 5 percentof Italian land was convertedto vineyardsat this time. The model. This content downloaded from 159. sponse itsgrain andimports itswinesurplus Italy exports shortage. els.56 themodeloverestimates to grain risein winepricesrelative pricesmakeswinemoreprofitable in slaves relative to land and freelabormakes The growth thangrain. ing assumptionsand is an example of the model's known imprecision. then. He forItaly's urbanpopulationrequiredonly 1 percentof its culshows thatenoughwine production tivable area. however.well-documented in thecountryside to wineproduction from and 200 BC: theshift grain rural to urbanareas. in fact. The modelalso of freelaborfrom themigration due to makesmorecontroversial predictions: peasantsmigrate mostly slave from exnot owners factors and gain pushfactors. predicting in Italyafter 200 BC lend credence to its implications for velopments its successes are two morecontroversial questions.however.in turnlimiting market demand. predictions exogenousinputs. of 36 percentand a fourfold The model's average resultis a decline in grainproduction gain in wine production. imperial pull lose.the production resourcesdedicatedto wine. largely of magnitude overshoot thehistorical remodel'spredictions generally in an the flaws our of Italian small thus assumptions ality. ofresources theexpropriation from thatlend credence to the modelis the Firstamongthepredictions in Italian wine the to from shift countryside. Roman Empire. In reless expensive.

8 to 2. between Father Liber and . Arthur. 62 Morley.Metropolis. peasants migrated migration peasants Based on cityand townrepredicted by themodelis well established.27 on Wed.2 million two 500. . insula'surban in from 200 BC to 1. Conquerors. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .Metropolis. pricesmakescitylifemoreattractive turns to wineproduction motivate landowners to pushpeasants offtheir landsand convert them intovilla estates. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy. Tchernia..63 In themodel. ."62 Father Ceres . country in this those vine clad hills with their Campania." Brunt. Roman Empire. valleybegins glorious wine. ing goodsprices." Romans: and Jongman. The model predictsthatthe proportion of free labor living in urban rises by 20 percentof the total population.See Hopkins. ° Examining theItaliancountryside. Usingestimates ofurban death Scheidel calculates rates. foran estimateof Italy's urban population."Ancient Shipwrecks. Grain support to in from five million modii 200 BC to 30imports Italygrew peryear 60 million modiiper yearby 1 BC. roughly withthegrowth. thequestion of why Although remains the mass of controversial. Italian Manpower.61 The most elaborate villas in were inhabited the same 100 largest. The massmigration of peasants from thehinterland to Rome andother cities was a phenomenon notseenagaininWestern unhistory tilLondon's boommore than a millennium later. Greene. petition [wine] [grain] A secondmajorprediction of themodelis a significant of migration free laborfrom rural tourban areas."Italian Wine.000 population grew 4 centuries later. This content downloaded from 159. and Scheidel. yearperiodthat corresponds peak. Morley. expansion falling grain thancountry rewhilehigher life. archaeological digsthroughout and Etruria a villa indicate of Campania proliferation wine-producing sitesthrough thefirst 22 in with of land Etruria and BC. "Thencomethefavoured of changes. orwinecontainers. The model's predictionof nearly 30 percentof peasants living in cities is consistentwith historians'estimates.and declineof the Italian wine industry. century percent 15 percent of land nearPompeiidedicated to wine production. 58 Gamsey and Sailer.Archaeology. that urbanization absorbed 1. a combination ofrisurban the of the and annona. 1.58 Wine exports also peakedat this theexcavation ofamphorae.178. thesceneoftheseverest comover. .22." Parker. Italianwine exports to Gaul thatdeclinedoverthe subsequent centuries. mains andcontemporary written historians estimate that thepenrecords. Romans were aware of these Contemporary As Pliny theElderwrites..59 data also showthatoverhalfof shipwrecks on shipShipwreck routes from to in Gaul occurred the second and first centuries ping Italy BC.1048 Geraghty The archaeological evidenceof Italiantradewiththeprovinces and land use and contemporary Romanaccounts thisstory. famous all theworld and.2 million between 200 rapid peasants and 1 BC. revealsignificant time. Economy and Society. .

178. Hannibal 's Legacy. andtheexpansion goodsprices after 200 BC. antmigration to thisconclulendssupport Scheidel'srecent analysis demographic inthe focus onpeasant dislocation ofthepushtheory sion.either pillaging century or constant militarization of thepeasfalling grainprices. gained questions whypeasants theories aboutwhypeasbecamewealthy? andhowItaly Manyexisting thatprofit-hungry aristocrats and low grain antsmigrated emphasize landand that from their left imperial expansion peasants pricespushed 5 More the first AD.forcingthemto abandon theirhomes and migrateto urban centers. 1". Conquerors. and Jongman. Hannibal wrecked theirland and aristocrats boughtabandoned. However. in the first analysis century prevalent an increasing of immiItalian citiesrequired showsthat supply growing death ratesexceeded becauseurban their to replenish populations grants with the of more consistent a conclusion birth rates. W. de Neeve. destitute recent theoRomans century by ordinary in the literature.67 urban which becamemore theriseoftheannonaandItalian production. P. pull antry.According primarily drive 80 percent ofpeasoftheannona. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . leaving peasants of in cities and towns. and de Neeve. Brunt.22.themodel'simplications overestimate thehistorical thepredicted evidence. migration. Metropolis. timing pulltheories favors ofmigration Scheidel's than pulltheories analysis pushtheories. Colonus. This content downloaded from 159. on suchas theories focus growing opportunities. thatpull factors. "Human Mobility in Roman Italy. magnitudes although it does about the more controversial and unWhat. Scheidel.pull factors.69 that on theories andcastsdoubt overthepushtheories imperial expansion from their lands.less prevalent suggest notably urban in cities and most The towns. He argues thatfallinggrain prices motivatedpeasin urban areas." Scheidel. By contrast. During theirabsence.27 on Wed. and Hopkins. migrated. Anotherplausible push theants to abandon theirfarmsforbetteropportunities two centuries made peasants unable to militarization over burden of that the constant is ory sustaintheirlivelihoods on theirfarms.See Toynbee. though agreedthat peasants 65 Italian Manpower. of who and who known lost. then.Metropolis.Thevariations Italian as a result of Hannibal's of the second BC. countryside. and Jongman. them Roman driving peasants by impoverished on who gainedand who lostfrom is unclear The literature imperial lostwhilearistoit is generally expansion. de Neeve observes thatHannibal's destruction destitute is an insufficient explanationforthe widespread ruraldepopuonly a limitedarea of countryside lation apparentin the archaeological record. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy. 1". Morley." 67Arnold Toynbee argues thatpeasants fled theirfarmsforthe safetyof citywalls duringthe Hannibalic War around in the late thirdcenturyBC.66 inspired opportunities us to estimate the fraction modelcan speakto thequestion by allowing driven to urban from oftheshift bypushandpull facgrain production therise in urban to themodel. say reality. AS Scheidel's BC and afterwards. "Slaves. "Slaves.Impact ofGlobalization 1049 withthe are consistent In twomajorareas. Hopkins. Colonus. devastatedplots at firesale prices. Morley. tors. ries. Conquerors.

fell. Wealth to own thusshifts to aristocrats wealthy enough slavesat theexpenseof middling landowners who cannot afford slaves and for whomselling their landsandmigrating to citiesis an unappealinthesepredictions ontothepast.71 The massive of free labor moving migration to citiesandtowns around over200 twomillion countryside peasants in at the same rate as years. as fallinggrain less profitable labormakegrain pricesand morescarcefree production andrising winepricesandmoreabundant slavesmakewineproduction morelucrative.Landlords'ability to purchase largeplotsof landin thesecondcentury at that time. Mobility 73The model that landrents decline whileslaveprices predicts bya totalof46 percent. As a result. however.27 on Wed. peasantlivelihoods remained reaunaffected fordifferent by imperial expansion.fora minimal net effect on freelabor inexpansion come." see Scheidel. tirely by growing opportunities of the annona. 1. Morley. 70The model that realwagesdeclineby 9 percent becausedownward from predicts pressure winepricesmorethan offsets from urban falling grain pricesand rising upward pressure rising andtheexpansion oftheannona.74 The decline suggests depressed prices inthestructure andsize ofrural ofproresidences andthedepopulation ductiveareas indicate thatformerly had fallen on aristocrats wealthy hardtimes.aristocrats' ing option.evictions. This content downloaded from 159. But it fits PeterGarnsey's that conclusion imports. aristocrats' realincome bya total grows by92 percent. onlytoriseagaintonewheights in thesecThereis someevidence of trouble forRomanlandowners ond century BC and substantial returns evidence forhighand climbing to owning slaves.Our model. Conquerors. grow of 160percent.22. Garnsey. in urban areasand the offset.70 The model'sstory thus contradicts thosewhobelievethat peasantswere made destitute and slave by falling grainprices.Landowners lose while slave ownersgain.75 On theother thepriceof slaves. Metropolis'. andde Neeve.Colonus. smallholdings peasants their incomes conditions and to changing economic onlyby responding to urban from the areas.however. although sons. "Human migration. owners. It acknowltellsa different story. Hopkins.73 Projecting comeswouldhave declinedin thesecondcentury as BC. WhereasGarnsey to farm their believesthatpeasantscontinued themodelpredicts that maintained undisturbed. prices 71 Cities.orthepresent value hand. grainprices as wineproduction flourished. because edges thatfalling grainpricesreducefreelabor'sreal income This is almostenmostlaborers were employed in grainproduction.178. approximately Englishpeasantmigration thenineteenth thatthemodel's story is moreaccucentury suggests rate. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .1050 Geraghty cratsgained. Fora comparison to English inRomanItaly.72 themodeltellsa morecomplexstory aboutland and slave Overall.

11 in thesecondcentury Indeed.the grainlands. becameimmensely Romansociety becamewealthier As slaveowners at the time. Shatzman. Conquerors. became larger. "Slavery.andPatterson. tunes. Curti. Frank. including Livy and between 200 BC an eighttotenfold Tacitus. 159.27 on Wed. 80 Dench." on senator was therateofreturn I assumefrom Cato that landholdings Economy. Jongman." BC than Athenian ad wereeight to tentimes secondcentury century pricesin thefourth higher totheAthenian BCwerelow compared inthesecondcentury andthat Roman prices.76 or the value of slave after in slave returns. BC. This content downloaded from 159.23 100 yearslater. The from the modern to British early age.Economic Survey. qualityconstrucafter100 BC. 79 andMorley.78 Sitesin Latiumand Campania bytheearlyimperial grewsixfold and of muchhigher morecommon. 76 that rosefrom 403 drachmae indicate prices p.81 com200 BC. p. Economy. reality circa of general and consulScipioAfricanus. Seneca theunimpresa evident compares unequal. Metropolis.RichardDuncan-Jones's catalogueof Romanprivatefortunes of RomanswithmorethanHS 200 million revealsthatthe number era. inthefinal twocenturies to641 drachmae that Romanslave pricesin the twoconclusions: Jones's HereI combine Jones.84 figures compare ownership an explanation modelalso provides whyand how thisoccurred not theimporting of vast butthrough of the through exploitation peasants. and praiseof magnificent villas in tionand decoration of fertile theseareas replaceddescriptions Indeed. present prices. and the returns to slave owning flourished As the wine industry enormous and forowners accumulated slave unprecedented grew. 200 timesmoreincomethana peasant'ssubsisgenerated age senator Romanfortunes ofHS 400 million in the tence early imperiumP wages totals and sixteenthby a factor seventeenth-century English surpassed and Gini coefficients of Romanlandof 18-72 in wheatequivalent.to thoseof his own day in thefirst century Livy doubled durforSenatemembership that thewealth ments requirements based on A calculation of Gini coefficients this Livy's figperiod. "Archaeology.178. p. The inscriptions Hopkins. The RomanEmpire torof 18.79 and finer witnessed the construction of more elaborate BC first century villasthan everbefore.Impact ofGlobalization 1051 thisperiod. 84Duncaninpopulation exceededBritain Jones.22. sive size of theresidence AD. 5. Rathbone. prices 7 DuncanJones. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . during grewsignificantly at Delphiindicates a 50 percent their freedom thepricesslavespaid for 200 BC. 343. "Development". gain of slave pricesin contemporary Mentions sources. bya facEconomy. 6 percent.Senatorial Wealth.A catalogueof of slave returns. gainin slaveprices suggest andAD200.82 ing rosefrom oftheItalian that theGinicoefficient uressuggest population theaverBC to 0. 0.

178. I count gains fromchanges in commodityprices and returns to labor. veal thatits oversimplified the more comfail to assumptions capture ofRoman times.86 gration the Italian is driven words. from twopowealth after 200 BC. fewdataexist to corroborate ordeny thisinterpretation. In this calculation. imperial the model's predictions obof magnitude tendto overstate Although servedphenomena.tell a broad from theunderlying logic on whichthemodelis based 85 Land.85 The modelpredicts Italy's market inteincome rises25 percent this 5 from during period: percent In other and 20 percent from seizuresof wealthand people. This content downloaded from 159.the questions or marits gainsderived from Italygainedand whether expropriation factor ketsare hardly that total addressed.makesitsmorecontroversial towns Theseconpredictions plausible.1052 Geraghty markets for of slaves and the openingof new provincial quantities slave-intensive production. troversial inthehistorical as well. propriation by gains from trade.The find evidence predictions support model's success also lends credenceto its assumptions of a wellmarket in theRomanempire rationand of economic integrated system the Romans. That the model's storyfit the historical evidence in two wellestablished Italian from aspectsof developmentthe ruraltransition and the migration of peasantsto citiesand grainto wine production .27 on Wed. The prediction further as onlyprovokes questions. including grain the literaandslaves. I proceedto defend and explainthemodeland to describe thechanges to the model that from Rome's resulted exogenous expansion. in order to shedlight bothon thevalidity of my on and thebig questions of Italian economic assumptions development. Whittaker. and gains fromchanges in taxes collected and land. In themodelRomanwealth derives tential sources theexpropriation of provincial wealth. The to which the model's alityamong predictions degree of magnitude reovershoots observed historical however. its directional the conclusions drawn predictions . Although tureoftendescribesRome's seizureof vast quantities of provincial of how much wealthin the form of tribute and slaves.andthegainsfrom themarket economy. economy's expansion primarily by theexof provincial but also significantly wealth. plexreality CONCLUSION In thisarticle I construct a simplified modelof general equilibrium theRomaneconomy.22. phenomena. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . and slaveryas gains frommarketintegration the slave endowmentas gains fromprovincialexploitation. the model addresses thequestion of the sourcesof Roman Finally.

coherent."MarketEconomy".Introducing thesecomplexiitsuse as a precise butlimit predictive of a morerealistic ties intothemodelwouldmakeits story portrayal and would refine. Theywerenotpure on maintaining their subsistence butinstead focused maximizers profit their riskof ruin."Wine". lineofan economy story.178. 87 andDuncanJones. Economy. Economy.Furthermore. and Hopkins. of ourunderstanding The basic powerof a modelis itsformalization underofformalized The combination ofcause andeffect relationships. This makes dictions ourdataarelimwhere ofancient for thestudy modelsa useful history. Cities. make more allows us to available data the and powerful prestanding thanwe can makewiththeavailabledata alone. This content downloaded from 159. research can applysuchmodelsto study other Further aspectsof anADorthe ofItalyafter thefirst suchas thedecline cient century history. for is unknowable that thesemodelstypically require precision outthe not necessitate do models economic However. Morley. Finley. knowing precise Thebroad andaccurate totella basic.Impact ofGlobalization 1053 thatis confirmed of Romaneconomic development by theavailstory fit This between themodeland theavailable evidence. rules-of-thumb.88 socialpressures. change.89 and reducing Italywas a majorpartof theRoman theemaffected and commodity pricesthroughout economy probably makeita abouttheserealities assumptions pire. modelsuch as thatused thepowerof an economic ited. that thecomplex considers of a coherent hereis itscrystallization story in an and delivers of manysimultaneous interactions economy changes This quantified a broad seriesof testable storyis more predictions.The model'ssimplified of Italianeconomic thebroadstory tool fortelling useful development tool.Purcell.Temin. Yeo. butnot substantially Italianeconomicdevelopment ourunderstanding. Garnsey.27 on Wed. in inflation the later or use them to refine of empire.22. able historical themodel's other and its assumption of evidencesupports predictions Roman markets and economic motivation and imperial well-integrated rationalism.87 by by andconventions. impact monetary markets suffered abouttheRomaneconomy. Metropolis'. ourassumptions Imperial in this and costs not reflected fromimmensecommunication lags but economics also Romanswerenotsolelymotivated model. fohistorical models often than the more testable and comprehensive I bein these cused on singlequestions isolation. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . advantages. "LandandSea Transportation".Ancient Conquerors. Despite to employ ecoalikehavehesitated and economists historians lievethat because the the ancient world of in their models nomic degreeof study that era.

Feed (GB). The grainsupplycomes from private market forfree distributions (GM).andurban (G). Wineandurban goodsare supplied (W and U) anddesolelyby Italian production manded andlaborers.22. Two intion(U) andthree ofproduction factors is termediate as factor Manure also function (M) and feed(GB)9 inputs. and livestock and slaves from thegrain(SG).livestock (RB) sectors. byexports spend fractions andrjLW on wineandr/RU andrjLU on urban total incomes (rjRW goods)oftheir (YRand YL)on wineandurban goods: W=Wx+fiRwYR+ riLwYL U=Ux+rjRUYR + rlLUYL This content downloaded from 159. (SB). + QMG + 0SG= 1 G = AcLeLGReRGKfMG?fSG where 0LG+ 6RG W = AwLeLWReRW\fMWtf)sw where0LW+0RW+0w+0sw = 1 + 0GB + 0SB=\ B = ABRdRBGeGB^SB where 0RB U = AuL6W^slJ where 0LU+ 0su=l M=AmB In equilibrium. significant positive impact A Computable General Appendix: Equilibrium ModelofRoman Italy . production low areCobb-Douglas in form with constant returns to scale.manure beand functions livestock feed consists of The produced by entirely grain.^).andurban landfrom thegrain wine(Rw). (RG). (LG)9 (Ly) sectors.land(R).government imports (GA).178.laborers. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Labordemand derives from thegrain wine(Z. Landlords andlaborers (WxandUx). livestock produc. (gA)andtheurban population with laborandslavesconsuming their grain. degivenexogenously. factor markets balancesupply. Government production imports bythepercapitaamount distributed and slavesdemand {Lv). goods. rivedfrom thesectors in whicheach factor is employed. Manure'ssupply is givenby theproduction function formanure aboveandbydemand from thegrain (MG)andwine(Mw)sectors L = LG + Lw + Lu S = SG + Sw + SB + Su R = RG+ Rw + RB M=MG + MW markets are suppliedby imports and deand domestic Commodity production mandedby domestic consumers and exports.27 on Wed. anddemand. labor(L). and urban(Su) sectors.andItalian imports grain aredetermined ofgrain (G).1054 Geraghty use of economic modelsin thestudy of thedistant pastwouldmakea on ourunderstanding ofancient history. wine(W).landlords.wine (Sw). percapitarequirements (gi andgs) multitotal factor endowments (Z. andslaves(S).andS): pliedbytheir + GM+G = GB+ gLL+gsS GA where GA=gALu.grain The modelhas four sectors (#).

equilibrium equivalent wage. The nominal which consist ofsubsistence wagerate(wL)is and other commodities subsistence grainrequirements (pGgi) (yL). goods. by thegovernment imported theprovinces from andslavesimported (psS): + psS PwWx+PuUx+T=pGGA+pGGM which Excel to examine itsresults.27 on Wed.Priceofmanure wL:Wagerate paidto labor sector wy. exports value includes (7). sector thewage paid by theurban (wu) and theincome provided by thegrain namely dole(pGgA)' = dR + m-pGgsS YR m=PGgs+Ps WL=PGgL+yL = Wu+PGgA WL that whichstates thevalue of is thebalanceof tradecondition. costs(pGgs) andprice(ps).ps'.andurban grain.Wagerate production paidto laborin urban to slave m:Rateofreturn This content downloaded from 159. inAppendix areshown Table 1 Appendix VARIABLE DEFINITIONS Variables Exogenous Variables Endogenous R: Landendowment G: Totalgrain byItalian producers produced Totalwineproduced L: Laborendowment W\ byItalian producers S: Slave endowment B: Totallivestock producers produced byItalian U: Totalurban producers production byItalian price pG:Grain ofmanure M: Totalamount Wineprice pw\ feed ofgrain usedfor goodsprice GF Totalamount Pu: Urban market amount of Total subsisPer GM: imported bytheprivate grain capita gs: from Totalamount ofwineexported for Wx: tence Italy requirement from ofurban slaves Ux:Totalamount Italy production exported theprovinces from oftaxescollected T: Totalamount gL:Percapitasubsisincome oflandlord Totalamount for YLL: tence requirement than on goodsother oflaborincome Percapitaamount labor spent grain yL\ al.livestock is similar: market + rjLBYL B = rjRBYR totalincome(YR) from land rents to Landlords receivetheir (dR) and thereturn costs. Import grain (puUx). The spentupon to the at rural has two nominal urban wage.At equilibrium slavereturns slaves(m) minus subsistence equateto slave costs. equalsthevalueofimports.and taxesleviedupontheprovinces exports markets (pgGa). 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .Impact ofGlobalization 1055 is nontraded. I solvedthemodelby handandused Microsoft Tables 1-7. The finalequation valueincludes wineexports urban Export (pwWx).22.grainimported by theprivate (pgGm). Otherwise thelivestock Unlike wine.Annualized priceofa slave gA:Percapitagrain rent on land free labor d: Annual lotment for inurban centers pB:Priceoflivestock Pm. components.178.

10 (M) GrainIm.58 0.875 0.80 Wineexports 0.030 (Ux) kSG exports Taxes (7) 0. The modelis basedon exogenous income factor income elasticities. respectively. 4.10 0.080 +970 +2.29 0.41 Livestock +16 -5 +26 0.31 0.39 -60 +23 ksu wage(wt/) -46 -58 +21 Rent(rf) Slave return +64 -16 +81 (m) Livestock -12 -11 +16 price(pB) .(GM) 0.270 kMG 0.11 Manure +16 price(pM) Landlord income +92 -45 +170 (YR) Slave price(ps) +160 -42 +200 Sources:See thetext and modelas specified in theAppendix.05 0.30 0.05 Feed(G5) Manure +54 +33 +60 0.01 0. 5.23 0.025 0.82 +440 +140 +480 0.43 0.15 0. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .59 (U) kRG 0. I solvedthemodelusingMicrosoft Excel.51 (G) kLG +410 +290 +500 kLW 0.38 1 +1.13 0.15 0.0 (5) kw Urban +100 +40 +200 0.40 ksw Ruralwage(wL) +12 0. andother initial conditions stated inAppendix Tables2.43 0.10 0.60 0.18 kRB 0. Low High Sector Share Initial Final Final Final Grain -36 -55 -5 0. % Low% High% Change Change Change Sector Shares Factor Av. shares. and7.61 kRW 0.27 on Wed.00 0 +1.24 -90 -15 kSB Urban -44 0.85 +16 -5 +26 0.08 0. 6.20 +2.56 0.28 0.29 Urban +560 +590 0.26 0.62 0.12 . % Change Average -2 +6.30 Wine(JF) 0.22.5 +140 -20 +20 +10 +33 Low % Change -5 0 +100 -20 +10 +5 +10 High% Change +10 +10 +200 +20 +30 +15 +50 Appendix Table 3 MODEL OUTPUTS Variables Endogenous Output Av.560 Aw (Wx) 0.670 +830 +2. This content downloaded from 159.1056 Geraghty Appendix Table 2 EXOGENOUS SHOCK DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDES Variable Exogenous Laborendowment (I) Landendowment (R) Slave endowment (5) Grain price(pG) Wineprice0M Urban goodsprice(pv) Annona allotment (gA) Sources:See thetext.37 0.03 0.178.40 0. shocks.42 0 0.

theshareof totalrevenue from is earned grain by each factor sees as income is labor'sfactor income shareofgrain that thelaborproducing grain production Sources:See thetext.01 0.27 on Wed.2 6LW 0. production tograin laborwith (kLG).4 0RW 0.4 6GB 0.15 0.5 0.01 kSG 0.1 0.1 kRB 0.1 0.2 0. For example.7 kRG 0.5 6RG 0.025 kLW 0.8 kMG 0.875 kLG 0.05 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.22.5 0.1 0.15 0.6 Orb 0.1 0.ofGlobalization Impact Appendix Table 4 EXOGENOUS FACTOR INCOME SHARES Income Share Factor Value Average Low Value 1057 HighValue 0.10 0SG 0.15 Bmw 0.4 ksu ofa sector.15 0.3 0.10 0.5 0.5 6LG 0.10 kLU 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0SB 0.3 0.3 0.15 ksB 0.05 0.2 Omg 0.15 0.3 0. dedicated to theproduction ofthefactor shareis theproportion sector Note:A factor shareof is thefactor sector to grain of labordedicated theproportion For example. respect Sources:See thetext. This content downloaded from 159. Table 5 Appendix INITIAL FACTOR SECTOR SHARES Factor Sector Share Value Average Low Value HighValue 0.7 0.05 kRW 0.05 0.05 0.3 0.6 0sw 0.4 ksw 0.85 0.5 0.45 0.15 0.178.35 0.4 0.4 0.4 0. (Ota).05 0.01 0.01 0.2 Xmw 0.7 6W 0.9 0.95 0. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .6 0su of income derived from thesale of an output that income shareis theproportion Note:A factor in itsproduction.1 0.10 0.

2 amounted to approximately inflows based on 10% of provincial axw 0.015 In 200bc Italy'stotalpopulation.24 spentuponwine. freeand slave.15 0.d amounted to approximately 20% of wine demand.6 0. 20% of urbanproducts were exported. awG 0.which real terms. Landlords and laborers incomes on livestock.1 0.5% Thus. Italy possessed 500.56 Minimum per annum.25 0.60% of livestock from laborers.3 0.05 Italy's freepopulation consumednine timesmore grainthanthe slave Thus. Labor incomewas HS 200 per capita.0 and theannonaformed 3% and 1.025 wineexports werethree times theamount ofurban olxt 0. the freepopulation aG$ 0.*1 Given 60% and 10% oftheir aBR 0.3 nRU 0.Forexample.of which15% was awi 0.f awx 0. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 24% labor.8 consumed theremaining 80%.eExports This providesthatwine demandwas 56% landlords.075 Total exports calculations of slave and grainimport and wineexport values. Italy imported aGM 0. to its approximate requirements. grain supply production was slightly less thannine timesits slave population.urbanwages and freegrainprovided equal proportions total wages.2 nRB Notes:An income is thefraction the oftotal income on eachgood.totalimports aMS 0.27 on Wed.and 20% exports. of whichat most1.1058 Geraghty Appendix Table 6 EXOGENOUS INCOME ELASTICITIES Income Elasticity Value Average Low Value HighValue 0.6 spent thefigures demandcomes from landlords and 40% aBL 0. 5%.9 exports.a of Thus.g consisted of 80% slaves.22.5 rjLB 0.and feed 85% of totalgrain demand.4 0.imports provided ofthetotal anddomestic theremainder.03 fivemillion modiiof graintotal.0 aGL 0.8 grain. aux 0. consumedan average of 35 modii of grain per annum.5 aGB 0.85 population.20 spenton wine. assumethat laborcomprised slaves 10%. The wineand livestock incomeelasticities of laborare calculated after forlabor'sgrain theassumption is that laborers amount accounting consumption. landlord incomewas HS 267 million of which60% was aWR 0. Appendix Table 7 CALCULATION OF OTHER INITIAL CONDITIONS a Value Method The annonadistributed subsistence or40 modii.2 0. 6% government grain.6 million aG 0.like wine.4 above.6 0.5 0. I assume that. Landlords aUR 0. consuming Sources:See thetext. five aMA 0.000 slaves and imported approximately million modiiof grain.178.was 4.7 nRW 0.06 In 200 bc.5 nLW 0.7 0.1 I Feed was a relatively smallpartof theeconomy at thattime. 14% private and Thus.14 modius. spenda fixed on grain for subsistence before wineandlivestock.9 million.^ I assumethat axu 0.5 This content downloaded from 159. wages.bc Slaves cost HS 200 per annum and grainHS 5 per aMG 0. elasticity spent fraction of their totalincomethatlandowners of landspendon wineis theincomeelasticity owners forwine{nRW).5 Each person aGA 0.96 approximately fortheannona. Laborreceived subsistence to 40 modiin also equated recipients.5 awU 0.

p.22. PeasantsandFood. givenbyfactor in thistable(in order)are theproportion ities.1971.-A.andtaxes. inRomanItaly. Edition.1991.gThus. ofSubsistence Agriculture.andMargaret Clark. DuncanRichard. output (grain.35 REFERENCES and Land-UseAround the Paul.5 subsistence. Romansin Northern Arthur.01 Taxespaidfor offivemillion modii at HS 4 permodius.land.theproportion earned from of slave pricesderived landlord income from subof laborincome sistence costsand slave prices. proportion landand slaves. shares.25 e Its of 4.continued a Value Method 1059 40 million I assume 40% was cultivated. 195. Garnsey ] Scheidel.TheEconomics Third Colin. andTable 6. 0. p.andTable 6.other and slaves. Cities.urban of totalexports goods. This tableprovides conditions around myassumptions 200 bc where notalready income factor sector or income elasticshares. 96.theproportion andtheannona. 121. Cities.theaverage return was 6%.ofwhich Italycontained theaverage was HS 400.65 aRS 0. Jongman.000slavesthat for income andslaves35%. "Human 2. "TheArchaeology ofCentral Emmanuele. Massicoand theGarigliano 225 B. oftotal GDP derived from andtheproportion labor. Economy.4 million earnedHS 200 percapitaperannum. 151.Included of urbanlabor'stotalwages derived theproduction of urban of grain consumed in Italy from goodsand theannona.landlords.London:British Schoolat Rome.the grain)as feed. grain originating andurban and (for wine. Empire. andtheaverage As above. Oxford: Clarendon P. London:Macmillan.and taxes. gRickman. iugeraof land.178.000 percapitaper 40 million of of which was under 40% cultivation.hItalypossessed500. EmmaDench. 36-42. that landaccounts 65% oflandlord amortized Slave pricesof HS 2. slaves. CornSupply. imports. 1967.75 Labor spentapproximately goods. of theRomanEmpire:Quantitative Press. Press.27 on Wed. Cambridge: Cambridge University This content downloaded from 159. A.25 land. p.C.14 population 500.D.theproportion on grain and other spent goods. pp.8 Thismeans 6%. PeasantsandFood. 1 Roman andSailer. Economy p. Economy.c grain imports on theItalianeconomy'sinitial Notes'. p.theproportion of grain.theproportion from Italian ofeachcommodity farms. 12. Haswell. . 75% of theirincomeon grainand 25% on other awG 0.The Economy Studies. Campania:Settlement Basin. Slave subsistence to HS 200." Mobility olrr 0. anL 0.h anT 0.000 provide amQ 0. andthat thereturn that on landwas priceperiugerum costHS 400 perannum. in theform of wine.livestock. 14. iugera Italy possessed anR landpricewas HS 400. Sources'.60 Italy'sfreepopulation g of earned returns of 400 slave HS annum. 96. c CornSupply.theproportion in theform oftotalimports of theannona. Wine. Brunt. p. ans 0.a consumption any 0. goods) consumed by labor." p.5 pricesof HS 200. ItalianManpower. 92. 51-52.1982.andDuncanJones. d and Society.andJohn R. slaves." TheJournal RomanItaly:Recent and Southern ofRomanStudies 86 (1996): 170-89. Rickman. Trends and Approaches. Jones.slave costswere50% priceand 50% costsalso amounted amp 0.Impact ofGlobalization Appendix Table 7 . eGarnsey f "Italian Tchernia. Curti. aGarnsey bBrunt ItalianManpower. Patterson. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . pp. hDuncanJones.

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