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Economic History Association

The Impact of Globalization in the Roman Empire, 200 BC-AD 100 Author(s): Ryan M. Geraghty Source: The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 67, No. 4 (Dec., 2007), pp. 1036-1061 Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Economic History Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40056408 . Accessed: 28/08/2013 13:42
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TheImpact inthe Roman ofGlobalization 100 200 BC-AD Empire,
Ryan M. Geraghty
to a general The article modelto describe Italy'sresponse employs equilibrium of theRoman and factor market theexpansion commodity integration during a comprehensive of the Italian constructs Empire.This novel approach story on controthat and sheds corroborates established economy developments light versial andunanswered The success of the model supports arguments questions. was a that Romans wererational economic actors andthat theRomaneconomy market well-integrated system.

standard tenet ofeconomics is that ortheintegration globalization, ofworldcommodity and factor has profound andpredictmarkets, able effects an andinresource mix, allocation, upon economy's output come distribution. To studyglobalization and its effects, economists construct that of the domestic models tell the general equilibrium story ofmarket historian has employed Yet no economic impact integration.1 of theRoman to the general equilibrium techniques study development ofimpeoverthedegree imperial economy. Sparsedataanduncertainty rialmarket theapand Romans' rationalism make economic integration of these modelsdifficult.2 While acknowledging plication traditional thisarticle a generalequilibrium modelto tell a limitations, employs coherent of Italian Rome's expanstory during peninsular development sionfrom 200 BCto AD 100.The novelty is theuse ofa ofthisapproach of Italianecoformalized economicmodelto portray a broadpicture of nomicdevelopment, and thepurpose, questions beyondaddressing a Romanhistory, is to arguethat such models is powerful constructing method ofstudying ancient history. Historians make valid arguments thatRome's economicexpansion farmers had muted effects on theItalianeconomy, becausesubsistence did notrespond to market incentives and becauseRomansweremotiIn addivatedmoreby cultural thanby economics.3 and social factors theories contend thatit is a mistake to project modern tion,historians
The Journalof EconomicHistory, Vol. 67, No. 4 (December2007). © The Economic Association. All rights reserved. ISSN 0022-0507. History 2124 Ashland SantaMonica,CA 90405. E-mail:ryan.geraghty Avenue, RyanM. Geraghty, @gmail.com. I am grateful for continuous adviceandcriticism from Foote, Williamson, Christopher Jeffrey Peter All errors, ofcourse, areminealone. andMatthew Weinzierl. Temin, Jones, Christopher andO'Rourke, "Did theGreat Irish Famine." Williamson, Inequality: 2 theDebate." Sailer, "Framing andFinley, Ancient "Famine"; Garnsey, Economy.

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Rather than thecontradictory teractions snippets I and then formalize a conto these than debates. rationality andthehistorical evidence of theresulting predictions (or lackthereof) thus model's and of the an assessment assumptions indirectly provides a themodelprovides described above. Although and Peter Temin cataworked that markets slowly imperfectly. processand themodelpreconstructing is onlyto hereis basic and oversimplified.22.The success of the model in predicting singularly the on more coneconomic knowofItalian history supports predictions and martheassumptions of economic troversial rationality questions. ". ofmore refined thedevelopment tialtomerit 4 Land. "Metropolis "Development".Impact ofGlobalization 1037 in fundamentally different ontopast societiesthatfunctioned ways. Ancient Finley. accepts and concludes use of pricesacrossthe empire loguesthewidespread "functioned as partof a singlecomprehensive thatRomanprovinces market.Management. 169.Of thatunderlay ket integration a modelis an iterative course.27 on Wed.andWhittaker.In addition. Finley. places. 10. Ancient Cities. argue displayed in their of landedestatesand in their decisions management tionality aboutmigration.however.5 that Romans economic rasomescholars Forexample. Garnsey. Morley. Economy."9 Mediterranean whatRoman thesedebatesdirectly knowing requires Approaching of their ina more or werethinking citizens comprehensive knowledge that we possesstoday.178.6 in debatefocuses on theimportance ofmarkets controversial Another to whichimperial markets functioned as a Romanlifeand theextent somehistorians theimpeunit. thedebates addresses thataddresses view of Italianeconomicdevelopment single. Land. Ancient Economy. Rathbone. Economy. sented My aim. the model. This content downloaded from 159. andKehoe.and the approachitself. p.8 he modeofexchange ifnotthedominant.others system imporintheempire. muchof their recent have dedicated Economichistorians work. Economy.Transforming Reden.howRomeand forother theseideas forancient to challenging ever." p. Agriculture. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 5 Scheideland von Traditional and Schultz. tant."7 Whereas arguethat "singleeconomic nor reliant markets for thefulwas neither rialeconomy upon integrated that was an conclude themarket fillment ofneeds.coherent and are which models on of the existing explanations questions many whatwe focused. andWhittaker. 9 "Market Temin. Finley."Introduction". develop speakdirectly based on theassumptions of theItalianeconomy understanding ceptual market The consistency and economic ofperfect integration. has to ancient that this readers convince history enough potenapproach andapplicable models.

28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .one can measure nousoutputs.178. models.urban production. wine.is thebroadpicture thatour economicreasoning and the availableevidenceconvey.10 The model's analysisand will be described such as factor and endowments inputsare the exogenousvariables. goods and urbangoods. fragments provide picture past. several that are of quires simplifying assumption typical general equilibrium in whatfollows. probably retaindatamaketheprecise in of the more studies predictions possible howcentpast unattainable. Economy. thecausedependent economy By understanding and-effect in the Italian andestablishing howthe relationships economy variables evolvedovertimeas a result of imperial exogenous expantheeffects of expansion on themodel'sendogesion. the model but realistic.27 on Wed. Finally.11 Livestock was prevalent further from citiesin Italy's 10 "Did theGreat Irish Economics. More important of theItalianeconomy and its development ever. Jongman. thepriGrain.International O'Rourke. labor. percent agriculture cultivable areas. realistic links between final sectors. thepricesoftradable including goodsandresource inputs andthequantities ofresources dedicated to eachsector.Two intermediate wine. A GENERAL MODEL OF ROME EQUILIBRIUM The general modelpresented hereis an integrated collecequilibrium tionofcommodity andfactor markets driven and and demand bysupply theentirety oftheItalian The modelretogether representing economy. thanprecisepredictions." This content downloaded from 159. mary commodity imperial economy. the of Together application economic these a of the logic. Famine". theprimary in constituted 85 of the luxury good. provinces Italy's and livestock reflect themainsectors Grain. of theeconomy. primary ment and other of morererecords. "Development.free to the grain provided populaceof Romeby theimperial the taxesexpropriated from government. goods. tradable in theempire determined as a wholeandincommodity prices.livestock. andSodersten andReed. of the Italian itself.22. close the model and finance trade deficit. 1' andRathbone. mainfactors of consists of three My modelof theRomaneconomy and slaves four final and sectors productionland. making simple in thesubsistence-based andwine. grain.and studies demographic centagricultural with economies. The provide goods modelalso includes theannona.feed and manure.1038 Geraghty Economichistorians models haveyetto employ general equilibrium in thestudy oftheancient anduncerbecausethelimited past.The lackofdocumentation from ancient Romemakestheavailableevidence a diverse of andgovernsources array archaeological findings.

18 The quantity of landin use was motivated both expansion economic the desire to new lands under cultiforces. Rome. Toynbee. tradable wine.Urbangoods.p. nibal 's Legacy: and Whittaker.and by noneconomic thepushing of peasants their old ancestral landto ejectedfrom namely moremarginal thatfactor endowments are Overall." 15 Morley. The quantity of laborwas such driven as and shocks.Metropolis. standing grain assumpthemodel. Scheidel. supremacy.and 10 percentcattle(Morley. larly. Hannibal's Legacy. but the quest forMediterranean In fact. in livestock between made trade Italyand therestof theempire port Italian livestock was delivered Transported "bythehoof. bypolitical primarily conscription colonizacostsprevented from in tion. livestock pricesare not tradable whereas and urban are modelitself.2". and Harris.19 12 An excavation at the PalaMorley.Metropolis.16 of domestic markets ThoughI consider I leavethesmallopeneconomy andwineprices. Frank. and other metalproducts. a determined was Italy significant imperial fiveofits50 million muchofits market. 30 percentsheep or goats. Metropolis. Yeo." The desire foradditionalslaves partiallymotivatedsome Roman wars. This assumesthat Italywas small to theimperial as a wholeanddidnotimpact economy compared prices in imperial markets. Morley. In fact.political prestige. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 1". tioninplaceto simplify that factor The modelalso assumes endowments of labor. slaves. "Human Mobility in Roman Italy. Brunt. housing peopleandpossessing theimpact in underwealth. 19 Italian Manpower. 16 Italian Manpower. 20 percentfowl.and Roman victoriesoftenprovided thousands of slaves from single battles. Wars were also highly expensive. goodsweretraded populations.assuming plots.Impact ofGlobalization 1039 all producaltitude pastureland. grew. This content downloaded from 159."Roman Slave Trade. including pottery. 152). prisonerswere oftenunforeseenconsequences of conflicts.whichrepresent higher in and towns tion cities cloth.13 thelack of refrigeration andthehighcostof landtranslongdistances. goods prices in imperial and determined markets.and landwereexogenous to theItalianeconomy. 17 Scheidel.178. implyingthat the slave supply only responded to immense variationin price.furniture. and Toynbee. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy." prohibitive. See Shorter. and Yeo. "Land and Sea Transportation.andurban Although grain. by primarily bring to agriculture vationas thereturns forces. Metropolis.17 thequantity of slaveswas largely on political shocks.Economic Survey. grain." tine indicatesthe relativeimportanceof the different animals: 40 percentpigs.15 tonearby and determined within the Thus. urbanand rural ironware.and other formsof booty were usually more important. help differentiate over wine.22. Brunt.14 towns for local consumption.27 on Wed. HanLand. glassware.hightransportation provincials migrating numbers to take of Italian economic Similarge advantage prosperity. "Land and Sea Transportation. dependent of in the slaves wars of for territorial mostly winning conquests fought or defense.

theprospect to of freegrain was probably appealing peasantsfarfrom their theannona'sreRome. Spun*. cheaper peasant 22 Hopkins.22.23 whilegrain Furthermore. "Development. The model habits.motivating despite migration striction to onlya slice of Romanresidents. peasants. production requires tensive laborthroughout thegrowing season. 24 Rosafio. Slavery. Conquerors. Arable Cultivation.26 tant define whichand in whatproportion ofprothefactors parameters 20 Phillips." Spurrestimates worked150 daysperyear. evenly among With themodelbroadly I nowdelveintoanddescribe its established. 26See Tables4-7 for a complete ofthemodel'sparameters." 25 Rickman. for urban residents andprobably an important factor mopsychological to At the its some 300. employed this free and slave labor and captures understanding byseparating byposdifferent functions for andwine. Accounting peasant year. than labor.27 on Wed.1040 Geraghty withwhatwe knowof Italianlabor.178. consistent exogenousis largely and at themodel. prominence suggest oftheRomanpopulacewas greater than that.22 Peasants and their overall the reliability presence excluded themselves from on largeestatesalongside slavesfor working cultural intense reasons. production requires laboronlyduring inwine constant and peakseason.25 pacton thecontentment In addition. landuse this time andusefully slaves.For example. Though thismodelpositsa differentiation between freeand slave laborand the income that basedon shares receive from andwineproduction. "Slaves. Rathbone assumesthat laborand slavesworked that than thesameamount and calculates slavesweremoreexpensive free for make slave labor the shorter work would however. or 5-10 percent of theItalianpopulation. 250 daysperyear. whereas slaveswerefully and worked employed This shedslight on calculations of laborand slave costs. Corn Supply. thatpeasants and Rathbone.Metropolis. frequent was moreprofitably in wine production.24 Forthisreason.21 Peasant absences to fight peasants reduced their on farm. of the For thepurposes I assume that the and annona was free its existence model. they grain in Romansociety. prices torendowments The most affect and factor imporcommodity prices. Appendix summary This content downloaded from 159. received the imand its in that its the historical record annona. slavelarather than free labor with and more lax work its absences bor. incommodity andfacwhich determine howchanges parameters.orthedole offree by grain provided theimperial becauseitwas a significant sourceof income government. throughout distributed urban residents. simplifies in latersocieties slavesand laborare often close substitutes.20 harder their different characteristics Slaves worked than wars andlonger wouldtolerate. iting production grain The modelincludes theannona. peak man residents. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 23 Morley.000Rotivating peasant migration capitol.

to prosmalladditions thanwine forthe reasonsdescribed duce grainrather previously.4 of total revenue.Economy. and Rathbone." This content downloaded from 159.and Spurr. See Clark and Haswell. unlike wine.Agronomist educating contemporary from which we can infer a of wine production paint picture vineyards inwineoutput.labor."Development.400 (assuming 16 slaves at a price of HS 2.peasant labor amounts to withour earlierestimate. combination with later subsistence and texts.See Rathbone.and land theproduction duction A of Romancontemporary and sale of each commodity.As no dataexiston their importance. Jongman'sstudyof Pompeii provides evidence thatthe agworkforceand land rentseach absorbed half of total grain yields. Including manure ricultural the to 0.Arable Cultivation.000 per annum fora 100 iugera plot for0. See Duncan-Jones.Economy. and Duncan-Jones.4-0. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .slaves. Economy. fourpossessed a plot of about ten iugera.3 of total revenue.29 ofproduction ofeachfactor theshare of freelaborand Urbangoods are produced by some combination I free relative slaves.6 cullei per iugerumearns a revenue of HS 16.000 and at a slave cost of HS 6.000 each amortizedover ten years withan additional subsistencecost of 50 modii of grain at HS 4 per modius). hand.28 labor is divided amongst output on theother demands slavesand Wineproduction. which J.anditslaborintensiveness make slaves more than land as land value over important density high Romanfarmers on their texts well. Finally.intensively the other factors of Wine's on excludes production. around0.22. A more detailed analysis of Roman An average plebeian familyof grainfanningbased on the agronomisttextssupportthis finding. Economics.Whatmatters of how commodity hereare picture buttheoverallpicture of how resources combine to notexactfigures output. economies. See White. generate a combination of freelaborand landwith Grainproduction requires Romanpeasantstended of slaves and manure. as peasants satisfiedtheirsubsistence only partiallywith grain. "Development.which is consistent 29Wine was far more labor-intensive than grain.assumethat of urban theoutput laborand slavesshared production evenly.27 in laterperiods on grainproduction textsand research Agronomist this andadd information on howagricultural corroborate picture largely the force and landowners. See Jongman.5 of theirproduct." Columella's prescriptionof one part free labor foreach threeparts slave labor leads a value of 0. growinggrainwas not viewed as detrimental to a varietyof subsistenceeconomies.56 of total production".4. shows thatland's share of gross product is approximatelyone-half. K. or 0. requiring25 to 35 days per iugerumcompared to grain's 10 to 15. "Wheat Producamount to 0.000 per annum. quired less intensive labor than did wine throughout to theirstatus.2 of total product.178. Evans estimatesproduced approximately 250 modii of grain per annum forrevenue of HS 1. comparisons agronomist commodities of the themselves us knowledge agricultural provide the revenues weresplit. 27 Again. with manure and slaves contributing and slaves requires reducingthese proportions remaining0.Impact ofGlobalization 1041 . grain's cyclical naturebettersuited theirabsences fromthe farmforwar.15 for labor. Roman Farming'. Subsistence requirements tion. grain rethe growing season. and. and his estimateof land rentsamountto HS 5.receiveincomefrom .Cato's ideal vineyardof 100 iugera withyields of 1. See Evans.27 on Wed. The calibrationof neoclassical productionfunctions includingItaly and Africa. dependence largely and laboris described slavesoverfree above.

in slaves.I applyKevin relatively O'Rourke's findings on livestock's factorincome shares in preindustrial Ireland totheRomaneconomy. to whomall slave incomeaccrues. produced grain. IMPERIAL EXPANSION AND THE EXOGENOUS SHOCKS TO THE ITALIAN ECONOMY the natureof the Italianeconomyin Imperialexpansionaffected model howthedirect effects ofexpansion. I estimate that about85 percent of Italy'slandunder cultivation tropolis." Metropolis.9 million without proximately persons See Jongman.and livestock.My explains or theexogenous shocksto theItalianeconomy.urdominated butlacking economy bygrain production and livestock in and abundant labor and land butscarce ban.178. that are notknown.22. completely 30 O'Rourke. This content downloaded from 159." p. production.The initialconditions an describe Italian in wine. powerful ways. their wealth on covluxuries and theease with which greater spent they eredtheir subsistence needs. andPurcell. "Wine. affected thedecisions of economicactorsand caused ripplesthroughout To the economy.5. incomes agreethatlaborers spentapproximately See Garnsey.30 Otherparameters are the initialconditions of theRomaneconomy andtheincome and slaveowners. Economy. production. andSpurr. I assumethat with nearsubtheir Famine. a feedshareof 0. I use a landshareof 0. withthe remainder of thelaborforcealmostentirely Mededicated to grainproduction.31 Incomeelasticities definehow each factor of production the it earns and thus incomes are redirected affects how spends money to the consumption of othergoods. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . texts ancient Thoughincomeelasticities suggest winewas themostimportant followed consumption good forthewealthy. laborers.produced andlivestock consumption.leaving25 percent of their incomes forwine wages.33 Moredetailed andexplanations areincluded parameter specifications in theAppendix. I estimate a 0. Giventheimprecise the nature of thedata. Free labor primarily spendsits on subsistence and then on other small money goods spends portions once subsistence aresatisfied.1042 Geraghty livestock production intensively employsland and feed and requires little labor. ArableCultivation. As limited data existforRome. landowners.15 basedon O'Rourke'sfigures.I examine model'soutput for a broadrange ofparameters.10 urbanlaborsharebased on thesize of Romansewersystems. sistence urbangoods at home. their the we must first understand more study consequences.32 Landlords andslaveownrequirements ersspendtheir incomes on wine. elasticities of free labor. 15. 32Historians 75 percent of their on grain. apthat amount was required to support itspopulation of 4. See Morley. The remainder of thelandwas spenton wineor beef grainimports.urban reflecting goods. by urban products andthen livestock.27 on Wed. See Morley."Did theGreatIrishFamine.35 anda slaveshare of0. that their consumpimplying grain tionwas similarly trivial. The wealthy a trivial formed amount ofthepopulation.

35 of slave 200 in 200 BC. cleargrowth bya factor that thefree ofItalystayed wellestablished It is also fairly population A after 200 BC.2. such as the antebellumSouth.000 Italy's population yearslater.27 on Wed.2 to million or to 30 from riesandtrades. and Scheidel. of 1. Scheidel estimatesthatthe ruralnet rate of increase produces a 100 percentrise in the population by ad 14. Scheidel's estimates(Human Mobility in Roman Italy. This makes the 30 percentfigure improbablyhigh for Roman society. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy.and urban production. A combinationof high urban death rates. See Scheidel. and high militarization rates reduce offsetthis source of growthand resultin a small decline by most estimates. in which slave populations formedapproximately30 percent of the total costs in those economies permitteda higher degree of spepopulation. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy. range people.22. The constant provincial rates andhigh rates ofmanumission andin fact slaves' highdeath offset all of Italy'spopulation forvirtually thispeaccounted growth during thatItaly's slave population estimate was roughly Historians riod.amount to 1.2 million estimate whatmatters are unimportant. records slaveswonfrom victobasedon warandeconomic cataloguing 2 1. Lower transportation cialization.37 Of course.Impact ofGlobalization 1043 andthedegree of certainty andprecision shocks to theItalian economy I know them. these changes mostapparent in the The exogenousshockto the Italianeconomy is thetremendous of the slave after record historical growth population influx of slaves from wars than more 200 BC." This content downloaded from 159.wine. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . a high figuregiven the rapid death and manumissionrates experienced by the slave population.2. those that aremore uncertain theambiguous before addressing change in and the rise wine and urban in grain goodsprices. 38 The main source of growth was natural increase. prices cause-and-effect that drive I describe boththeunderlying relationships and the available data. 37 Scheidel.36 of thedemographic in Walter Scheidel'sdetailed facfidence analysis whichleads himto a conservative theslave population. Brazil. Based on eighteenth-century data.than was possible in the Roman period. provagainst we do thepathofItalian incesdetermined population growth. 2). Throughout. conscription. 36 Ibid. Estimates 500.3 First describe those that we with whichwe knowmore in the rise the slave the of landunpopulation. torsaffecting theprecisefigures slaves in 1 BC. and the Caribbean. based on the amount of slaves required for grain. up percent I havemostcontheestimates.2 million.forcedcolonization. however. Italian Manpower. is the calculations based on historians' intheItalian slavepopulation oftwoormore.it is clear remained constant thepopulation notknowwhether 34 See Appendix Table 2 fora summaryof the exogenous shocks consideredin the model. livestock.and growth of theannona dercultivation." Higher estimatesof around 2 million slaves depend on estimatesof slave populations in laterperiods. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy. 1. expansion confidently thedeclinein freelabor. balanceof natural or declinedslightly constant reproand colonization of the death duction rates. Instead.178. of Italy'stotal Examining population.38 Though or fell." Brunt.

Mobility 1.2 modii. required in was a significant serve the armyand populateforeign provinces.000Romancitizens. that estimates Hopkins Italy'spopulation ranged from 4.43 However.000Romanresidents at a costof HS 1. eight million an average of6 2/3modii a gainofone-third. Morley.the lack of preserved remains from theprior perioddoes notnecessarily indicatethatareas were uninhabited. modii. practice granting rights by 2 itself expandedland undercultivation by 5 percent. To include theannonain themodel. onlythesettlements tusin 59 BCand30-25 bc succeeded in avoiding theappropriation oflandsfrom thus. from and compute thequantity of graindistributed graindistributions inception percapita. inRoman andScheidel. though and the evidenceexiststo support theclaim.0 million to4.40 The recovery to from theHannibalic Warin thelatethird BCalso contributed century in the size of land use.and. Hannibal'sLegacy. Scheideluses 4 millionin both225 BC and ad 14 in his calculation ofnetmigration rates.41 Based on the number of soldiers. growth landand thedegree to whichthesesettlements didnotdisturb existing the of after wars soldiers settlement holders.I assumethat itinvolved free Rickman. Thoughthearchaeologicalrecordprovidesevidenceof expansionat thistime.In thefirst theannonadistributes twomillion or 40 modiitimes50. figures arrive at different butroughly similar estimates.the major factors theuse of land all pointto greater landuse after 200 BC.3 million of4. Conquerors'. By 54 BC.000. 43 "Famine.theannonaprovided 40 modiiof freegrainto nearly a number later to200. up to 40 modii of grainto about50. 39 ItalianManpower.4 million within I settled on this byad 14.178. ItalianManpower. Toynbee." Garnsey.5 permodius. driving the data are lacking. plots. drainon thefreelaborpopulation and stymied population anymaterial Most estimates to a modest decline gain.1044 Geraghty that theburden ofimperial which that free peasants expansion.Gains in totalpopulation of provincial markets raisedthereturns of agriculture. Brunt's middle-of-the-road estimate.an expansionin land undercultivation though occurred. Metropolis. period. Brunt determines that ofCaesarandAugusBrunt. representing This content downloaded from 159. point by 1 BC as thedrainof overwhelmed natural imperial expansion reproduction. peasants. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions ." I use Brunt's in225 BCand4. Hopkins. Havingexamined figures range. period. andToynbee. "Human Brunt.000recipients. soldier landsettlements contributed inthelandendowment to a gainof 5 percent each assuming landallotment consisted of5-10 iugera. Hannibal 's Legacy.In thesecond population theannonadistributes million or 40 modiitimes to 1. probably The prominence of theannonain thehistorical record allowsus to its the sold Senate precisely quantify growth.000foran averageof 5 modiipercapita.39 folThe expansion oflandunder cultivation this clearly during period little reliable lows from ourknowledge of Italiandevelopment.44 reduced 300.22.000recipients. Originally. making opening land and slave ownlands and wealthier marginal profitable motivating of Italy ers to push peasantsto thosemarginal lands.27 on Wed. of grain to an urban of 400. 200. Other historians Italy. 44 CornSupply.4 million inad 14. peoplefor percapita.

makesanyconclusions Howpricecomparisons of theevidence that there was a signifiever. proxy century voyages."Italian Wine. advantage comparative Italy 45 Hopkins. and Duncan-Jones. Kessler. [that] that "thesituation concludes Rickman Geoffrey the were not so relevant the local resources by periodof earlyEmthefailure of theRomanmarket morewas first pire. dictablemanner. "Feeding Rome".178. Whataffected of in provinces overseas. . price degree from drawn tentative. "Feeding Rome. growth risein thenumber of shipdata displaya threefold trade. and the annona. the ofprovinces. harvests inadequate supplies at seas . . in Italy andintheprovinces prices a significant correlation between andItalDavid Kesslerfinds Egyptian to shocksin Egyptin a prewithItalianpricesresponding ian prices. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .commodity By thefirst century goods. The growth ofthemoney which was used BC.Archaeology.Impact ofGlobalization 1045 200 BC is less clearthan The evolution of commodity the pricesafter the moreestablished changesin the slave and freelaborpopulations.48 in Romewas ." Kessler. "Feeding Rome. Temin." 9 ofcornshipsin storms andthedestruction shipping. among otherfactors.provided pressing Italianwineprices. "Land Transport.45 Shipwreck from the third for the number of BCto a wrecks.and caused grainand wine pricesin Italyand its of the to Kessler." 46 AncientShipwrecks. and Tchernia. In his analysisof supplying the city of Rome. Indeed. suggests significant expansion especially long-distance of traded in thequantity AD. "Taxes". Greene.27 on Wed.an examination suggests the empire. "Market Economy". to both cant expansionin tradethroughout contributing in Italyandtheprovinces between correlations commodity prices strong Italianand provincial between 200 BC. Forexample. The lack of consistent of land data use. grain imports percent Egypt forItalian wine. and Laurence. expansion geststhatimperial for new markets Italian wine. 154. primarily converging. 48 Kessler.Economy. thecreation of the Mediterraof roads and canals. tioncostsby the first language century in and urban wine a had nomictheory.22. .After thedispersion ofthemilitary andcoinage. Parker. century a for exchanges." 49 Rickman.46 thefirst supply.47 werehighly correlated.p. . "Market Economy". . .Corn Supply. . 47 Temin. Imperial provinces Italy of for 50-75 accounted and North Africa.according provinces and was due to between transportaItaly Egypt pricedifferential grain x In the of classical ecoAD.raising grainprices. ." This content downloaded from 159. .50 Thissugof demand to Romeandat least25 percent deof provincial led to an influx grain. secondly.and thepacifying construction in imperial led to a substantial nean.90 percent to converge. and convergence prices. thatcommodity the growth of tradesuggests In addition. pricesin were and the markets.

28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .1046 Geraghty whatItalyposgoods production (because theyemployed intensively sessedinabundance." an exaggeration.22. See Rickman.54 Our understanding of directional changesand approximate magnitudesis sufficient to drawlogicalconclusions of aboutthedevelopment theItalianeconomy from ourconceptual framework of howtheItalian worked. Thistentatively toa decline from HS 5 to HS 4 overourperiod.writing BC. "Development.See Garnsey.probably from HS 8 to HS 64 inthefirst See Duncanmarks." Purcell. low pricefigpriceceilings curiously uresthat low market HS 1 andHS 10 Pricesfluctuated between suggest correspondingly prices. provided boysallowances andgirlsHS 10 permonth. During berius andNero imposed of HS 2 and HS 3 permodius. Economy. century Economy.buta pricein SicilyofHS 3-3. Economic available ing commodity prices forces of directions. indomestic in the total factors. TiJones. phora.178. Jones. andafter theHannibalic War. goods pricesare nonexistent.the economyassumption model'sresults are consistent inacrossa rangeof grain pricechanges. slavesandan urban laborforce) anda comparative in whatItaly intensively disadvantage grain(because grainemployed in land). With I nowexamine affectthis broadpicture thefactors established.first model that those areconsistent with evidence establish to existing themodel's credibility and thenthosethataddressmorecontroversial issues. Pricescouldvarysignificantly around thesebenchpriceof HS 15. constant and moderate cluding prices pricegrowth. suggests century CornSupply. in and the data more detail.employs Two centuries Columellauses an averagewine later. Famine. possessed scarcity. path of grain becomesan empirical on which thedataareinprices question conclusive. primarily growth Italy's population. faced dodemand from the rest of the and from goods greater empire mesticconsumers.Few dataexistforItaly permodius during inthelatesecondcentury andearly first BC. points 53 "Wine. ranging century. creaseddemand. The following thepredictions ofthe sections address economy . and theconversion of resources from grain producing to other reduced Italian The goods supply.52 For thepurposes of the model. 52DuncanJones uses Trajan'salimentary which ofHS 16 scheme.53 Whereasthe data tentatively indicatethatwine rose over our the data on urban prices period.I followthe smallopen and hold thatgrainprices fell. economic forces unambiguously pressured wineandurban After 200 both wine and urban BC. pressure prices.See Rathbone.27 on Wed. Unlikethecase of grain. However. goodspriceshigher. to infer a priceofHS 4 permodius at theclose ofthefirst permonth ad. in thesecondcentury an averagewinepriceof HS 10 peramCato. pushing priceshigher.5 permodius century thattheItalianpricewas HS 5-6 per modiusin thefirst BC. This content downloaded from 159. The opening pulledItaly'sgrain pricesin opposite theprovinces Italthe of substantially expanded supply grain reaching ian markets andplaceddownward on grain Meanwhile. See Duncanthefoodshortages of ad 19 and ad 64.

57 55 See Appendix Table 3 fora summaryof the model's predictions.does not account forthisphenomenonbecause on imperialmarket does not have an effect it assumes thatItalianproduction prices.well-documented in thecountryside to wineproduction from and 200 BC: theshift grain rural to urbanareas. This is given which is typicalin computablegeneralequilibriummodby the small open economyassumption. As I discuss. and that20 percentof Italy's cultivablearea would have produced enough wine for where few resources are able to satisfy the entireempire. however.grainimports grew by a factorof 6-12. predictions exogenousinputs. Among comforting in the Italian economyafter developments major.in turnlimiting market demand. perfect in success the model's known economic deNonetheless.the production resourcesdedicatedto wine.Impact ofGlobalization RESULTSAND INTERPRETATION 1047 does themodelpredict? The model'sresults turn outto What.22. though production grain In themodel. and thebulkof Italianwealthderives pansionwhilelandowners andpeoplefrom theprovinces. The model. because of thisand othersimplifying assumptionsthe model cannot be used as an analytical tool to make quantitative predictions. In this saturatedmarketenvironment the amountof of more wine would reduce prices. predicting in Italyafter 200 BC lend credence to its implications for velopments its successes are two morecontroversial questions.however.178. these limitationsdo not call into thatthemodel conveys. transfer follows fromits simplifyThe model's overestimate thanthemostlikelyhistorical directly reality. In reless expensive. imperial pull lose. of 36 percentand a fourfold The model's average resultis a decline in grainproduction gain in wine production. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . ing assumptionsand is an example of the model's known imprecision. See Jongman.Jongman'sanalysis estimates thatno more than 5 percentof Italian land was convertedto vineyardsat this time. with the available evidence. gain to a fivefoldgain.56 themodeloverestimates to grain risein winepricesrelative pricesmakeswinemoreprofitable in slaves relative to land and freelabormakes The growth thangrain. He forItaly's urbanpopulationrequiredonly 1 percentof its culshows thatenoughwine production tivable area. ofresources theexpropriation from thatlend credence to the modelis the Firstamongthepredictions in Italian wine the to from shift countryside. These changes resultfroma rangingfroma threefold This magnitudeis fargreater of 51 percentof Italy's land fromgrainto wine production. slaves cheaperand wine production relatively from to wine and redirect resources Romans grain production. "Slavery. Roman Empire. in fact. largely of magnitude overshoot thehistorical remodel'spredictions generally in an the flaws our of Italian small thus assumptions ality.27 on Wed. exposing andeconomic markets rationality. then. This content downloaded from 159. els. openeconomy. acrossa broadrangeof plausibleparameter be consistent values and the model's directional are Moreover." questiontheconceptualstory The model predictsthatwine exportsgrow by a factorof 20 and grain importsby a factor of 17. the thedegree ofthistransition. The modelalso of freelaborfrom themigration due to makesmorecontroversial predictions: peasantsmigrate mostly slave from exnot owners factors and gain pushfactors. See Garnseyand Sailer. On consistent the other the hand. sponse itsgrain andimports itswinesurplus Italy exports shortage.

between Father Liber and .Metropolis." Romans: and Jongman. . Arthur. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy. 62 Morley. and Scheidel."62 Father Ceres . Italian Manpower. roughly withthegrowth." Brunt. mains andcontemporary written historians estimate that thepenrecords. peasants migrated migration peasants Based on cityand townrepredicted by themodelis well established. ing goodsprices. pricesmakescitylifemoreattractive turns to wineproduction motivate landowners to pushpeasants offtheir landsand convert them intovilla estates. The model's predictionof nearly 30 percentof peasants living in cities is consistentwith historians'estimates.63 In themodel. foran estimateof Italy's urban population.59 data also showthatoverhalfof shipwrecks on shipShipwreck routes from to in Gaul occurred the second and first centuries ping Italy BC.1048 Geraghty The archaeological evidenceof Italiantradewiththeprovinces and land use and contemporary Romanaccounts thisstory. Italianwine exports to Gaul thatdeclinedoverthe subsequent centuries.27 on Wed." Parker. a combination ofrisurban the of the and annona. 58 Gamsey and Sailer.000 population grew 4 centuries later. orwinecontainers. thesceneoftheseverest comover.. . petition [wine] [grain] A secondmajorprediction of themodelis a significant of migration free laborfrom rural tourban areas. "Thencomethefavoured of changes. thequestion of why Although remains the mass of controversial. that urbanization absorbed 1.61 The most elaborate villas in were inhabited the same 100 largest.178. Greene. The model predictsthatthe proportion of free labor living in urban rises by 20 percentof the total population..Metropolis. valleybegins glorious wine. revealsignificant time. The massmigration of peasants from thehinterland to Rome andother cities was a phenomenon notseenagaininWestern unhistory tilLondon's boommore than a millennium later. Tchernia.8 to 2. Morley. This content downloaded from 159. Economy and Society. Usingestimates ofurban death Scheidel calculates rates. Conquerors."Ancient Shipwrecks.2 million between 200 rapid peasants and 1 BC.and declineof the Italian wine industry."Italian Wine. century percent 15 percent of land nearPompeiidedicated to wine production. Roman Empire. .See Hopkins. ° Examining theItaliancountryside. famous all theworld and. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . .Archaeology. expansion falling grain thancountry rewhilehigher life. yearperiodthat corresponds peak. 1.22. Romans were aware of these Contemporary As Pliny theElderwrites. archaeological digsthroughout and Etruria a villa indicate of Campania proliferation wine-producing sitesthrough thefirst 22 in with of land Etruria and BC.58 Wine exports also peakedat this theexcavation ofamphorae.2 million two 500. insula'surban in from 200 BC to 1. Grain support to in from five million modii 200 BC to 30imports Italygrew peryear 60 million modiiper yearby 1 BC. country in this those vine clad hills with their Campania.

de Neeve. "Slaves. Morley. antmigration to thisconclulendssupport Scheidel'srecent analysis demographic inthe focus onpeasant dislocation ofthepushtheory sion. tors. de Neeve observes thatHannibal's destruction destitute is an insufficient explanationforthe widespread ruraldepopuonly a limitedarea of countryside lation apparentin the archaeological record. Conquerors. Morley. Hannibal wrecked theirland and aristocrats boughtabandoned. W. then. Anotherplausible push theants to abandon theirfarmsforbetteropportunities two centuries made peasants unable to militarization over burden of that the constant is ory sustaintheirlivelihoods on theirfarms.themodel'simplications overestimate thehistorical thepredicted evidence.forcingthemto abandon theirhomes and migrateto urban centers.See Toynbee.178. leaving peasants of in cities and towns.69 that on theories andcastsdoubt overthepushtheories imperial expansion from their lands. 1". thatpull factors. on suchas theories focus growing opportunities. in the first analysis century prevalent an increasing of immiItalian citiesrequired showsthat supply growing death ratesexceeded becauseurban their to replenish populations grants with the of more consistent a conclusion birth rates.either pillaging century or constant militarization of thepeasfalling grainprices. However. 1". magnitudes although it does about the more controversial and unWhat. destitute recent theoRomans century by ordinary in the literature. migration. andtheexpansion goodsprices after 200 BC. migrated. "Human Mobility in Roman Italy. "Human Mobilityin Roman Italy.Impact ofGlobalization 1049 withthe are consistent In twomajorareas. say reality. countryside. Hannibal 's Legacy. pull antry. During theirabsence. and Hopkins. and Jongman. Metropolis. He argues thatfallinggrain prices motivatedpeasin urban areas. and de Neeve. and Jongman. Scheidel. AS Scheidel's BC and afterwards.22. though agreedthat peasants 65 Italian Manpower. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Hopkins.According primarily drive 80 percent ofpeasoftheannona. devastatedplots at firesale prices. Colonus. "Slaves.Thevariations Italian as a result of Hannibal's of the second BC.less prevalent suggest notably urban in cities and most The towns. of who and who known lost. Colonus." Scheidel.67 urban which becamemore theriseoftheannonaandItalian production. them Roman driving peasants by impoverished on who gainedand who lostfrom is unclear The literature imperial lostwhilearistoit is generally expansion. By contrast. P. gained questions whypeasants theories aboutwhypeasbecamewealthy? andhowItaly Manyexisting thatprofit-hungry aristocrats and low grain antsmigrated emphasize landand that from their left imperial expansion peasants pricespushed 5 More the first AD.27 on Wed.66 inspired opportunities us to estimate the fraction modelcan speakto thequestion by allowing driven to urban from oftheshift bypushandpull facgrain production therise in urban to themodel. Brunt. timing pulltheories favors ofmigration Scheidel's than pulltheories analysis pushtheories. This content downloaded from 159. Conquerors.pull factors.Metropolis. ries." 67Arnold Toynbee argues thatpeasants fled theirfarmsforthe safetyof citywalls duringthe Hannibalic War around in the late thirdcenturyBC.

grow of 160percent. although sons.however." see Scheidel. Morley. This content downloaded from 159. fell. prices 71 Cities.73 Projecting comeswouldhave declinedin thesecondcentury as BC. as fallinggrain less profitable labormakegrain pricesand morescarcefree production andrising winepricesandmoreabundant slavesmakewineproduction morelucrative.70 The model'sstory thus contradicts thosewhobelievethat peasantswere made destitute and slave by falling grainprices.178. grainprices as wineproduction flourished.Colonus. peasantlivelihoods remained reaunaffected fordifferent by imperial expansion. As a result.evictions.fora minimal net effect on freelabor inexpansion come. in urban areasand the offset. Fora comparison to English inRomanItaly. 1.71 The massive of free labor moving migration to citiesandtowns around over200 twomillion countryside peasants in at the same rate as years.74 The decline suggests depressed prices inthestructure andsize ofrural ofproresidences andthedepopulation ductiveareas indicate thatformerly had fallen on aristocrats wealthy hardtimes. But it fits PeterGarnsey's that conclusion imports.Landowners lose while slave ownersgain. owners.Our model. Conquerors.orthepresent value hand. approximately Englishpeasantmigration thenineteenth thatthemodel's story is moreaccucentury suggests rate. however. Wealth to own thusshifts to aristocrats wealthy enough slavesat theexpenseof middling landowners who cannot afford slaves and for whomselling their landsandmigrating to citiesis an unappealinthesepredictions ontothepast. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Hopkins. smallholdings peasants their incomes conditions and to changing economic onlyby responding to urban from the areas. tirely by growing opportunities of the annona.72 themodeltellsa morecomplexstory aboutland and slave Overall.Landlords'ability to purchase largeplotsof landin thesecondcentury at that time.22. It acknowltellsa different story. because edges thatfalling grainpricesreducefreelabor'sreal income This is almostenmostlaborers were employed in grainproduction. aristocrats' realincome bya total grows by92 percent. andde Neeve.aristocrats' ing option.75 On theother thepriceof slaves.1050 Geraghty cratsgained. 70The model that realwagesdeclineby 9 percent becausedownward from predicts pressure winepricesmorethan offsets from urban falling grain pricesand rising upward pressure rising andtheexpansion oftheannona. "Human migration.27 on Wed. onlytoriseagaintonewheights in thesecThereis someevidence of trouble forRomanlandowners ond century BC and substantial returns evidence forhighand climbing to owning slaves. Mobility 73The model that landrents decline whileslaveprices predicts bya totalof46 percent. WhereasGarnsey to farm their believesthatpeasantscontinued themodelpredicts that maintained undisturbed. Garnsey. Metropolis'.

p.23 100 yearslater. 200 timesmoreincomethana peasant'ssubsisgenerated age senator Romanfortunes ofHS 400 million in the tence early imperiumP wages totals and sixteenthby a factor seventeenth-century English surpassed and Gini coefficients of Romanlandof 18-72 in wheatequivalent. BC. Rathbone. The RomanEmpire torof 18. The inscriptions Hopkins. inthefinal twocenturies to641 drachmae that Romanslave pricesin the twoconclusions: Jones's HereI combine Jones. Jongman.11 in thesecondcentury Indeed.79 and finer witnessed the construction of more elaborate BC first century villasthan everbefore. gainin slaveprices suggest andAD200. during grewsignificantly at Delphiindicates a 50 percent their freedom thepricesslavespaid for 200 BC. reality circa of general and consulScipioAfricanus. became larger. Shatzman. 84Duncaninpopulation exceededBritain Jones. bya facEconomy.RichardDuncan-Jones's catalogueof Romanprivatefortunes of RomanswithmorethanHS 200 million revealsthatthe number era. tunes. Metropolis. Frank. The from the modern to British early age.Impact ofGlobalization 1051 thisperiod. including Livy and between 200 BC an eighttotenfold Tacitus. Curti. prices 7 DuncanJones. gain of slave pricesin contemporary Mentions sources. sive size of theresidence AD." on senator was therateofreturn I assumefrom Cato that landholdings Economy.the grainlands.78 Sitesin Latiumand Campania bytheearlyimperial grewsixfold and of muchhigher morecommon. "Slavery. 5. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . "Development". 76 that rosefrom 403 drachmae indicate prices p.81 com200 BC.76 or the value of slave after in slave returns.Senatorial Wealth. and the returns to slave owning flourished As the wine industry enormous and forowners accumulated slave unprecedented grew. Conquerors. qualityconstrucafter100 BC. "Archaeology. present prices.Economic Survey. 159. 6 percent.andPatterson. Seneca theunimpresa evident compares unequal. becameimmensely Romansociety becamewealthier As slaveowners at the time. 80 Dench. This content downloaded from 159.22. and praiseof magnificent villas in tionand decoration of fertile theseareas replaceddescriptions Indeed. p.84 figures compare ownership an explanation modelalso provides whyand how thisoccurred not theimporting of vast butthrough of the through exploitation peasants.A catalogueof of slave returns. 79 andMorley." BC than Athenian ad wereeight to tentimes secondcentury century pricesin thefourth higher totheAthenian BCwerelow compared inthesecondcentury andthat Roman prices. Economy. 343. 0.27 on Wed.to thoseof his own day in thefirst century Livy doubled durforSenatemembership that thewealth ments requirements based on A calculation of Gini coefficients this Livy's figperiod.82 ing rosefrom oftheItalian that theGinicoefficient uressuggest population theaverBC to 0.178.

178.makesitsmorecontroversial towns Theseconpredictions plausible. Whittaker.The find evidence predictions support model's success also lends credenceto its assumptions of a wellmarket in theRomanempire rationand of economic integrated system the Romans.1052 Geraghty markets for of slaves and the openingof new provincial quantities slave-intensive production. economy's expansion primarily by theexof provincial but also significantly wealth. imperial the model's predictions obof magnitude tendto overstate Although servedphenomena. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . In themodelRomanwealth derives tential sources theexpropriation of provincial wealth. and slaveryas gains frommarketintegration the slave endowmentas gains fromprovincialexploitation. from twopowealth after 200 BC. propriation by gains from trade. That the model's storyfit the historical evidence in two wellestablished Italian from aspectsof developmentthe ruraltransition and the migration of peasantsto citiesand grainto wine production .27 on Wed. in order to shedlight bothon thevalidity of my on and thebig questions of Italian economic assumptions development. the model addresses thequestion of the sourcesof Roman Finally.the questions or marits gainsderived from Italygainedand whether expropriation factor ketsare hardly that total addressed.85 The modelpredicts Italy's market inteincome rises25 percent this 5 from during period: percent In other and 20 percent from seizuresof wealthand people. its directional the conclusions drawn predictions . Although tureoftendescribesRome's seizureof vast quantities of provincial of how much wealthin the form of tribute and slaves. fewdataexist to corroborate ordeny thisinterpretation. I proceedto defend and explainthemodeland to describe thechanges to the model that from Rome's resulted exogenous expansion. troversial inthehistorical as well. phenomena. The to which the model's alityamong predictions degree of magnitude reovershoots observed historical however. veal thatits oversimplified the more comfail to assumptions capture ofRoman times.22.andthegainsfrom themarket economy. The prediction further as onlyprovokes questions. In this calculation. I count gains fromchanges in commodityprices and returns to labor. and gains fromchanges in taxes collected and land. including grain the literaandslaves.tell a broad from theunderlying logic on whichthemodelis based 85 Land. This content downloaded from 159. plexreality CONCLUSION In thisarticle I construct a simplified modelof general equilibrium theRomaneconomy.86 gration the Italian is driven words.

Finley. and Hopkins. impact monetary markets suffered abouttheRomaneconomy. advantages.Introducing thesecomplexiitsuse as a precise butlimit predictive of a morerealistic ties intothemodelwouldmakeits story portrayal and would refine. make more allows us to available data the and powerful prestanding thanwe can makewiththeavailabledata alone. This makes dictions ourdataarelimwhere ofancient for thestudy modelsa useful history.Impact ofGlobalization 1053 thatis confirmed of Romaneconomic development by theavailstory fit This between themodeland theavailable evidence. Metropolis'.Furthermore. Economy. Garnsey. in inflation the later or use them to refine of empire.88 socialpressures. research can applysuchmodelsto study other Further aspectsof anADorthe ofItalyafter thefirst suchas thedecline cient century history. Cities.89 and reducing Italywas a majorpartof theRoman theemaffected and commodity pricesthroughout economy probably makeita abouttheserealities assumptions pire.Purcell. fohistorical models often than the more testable and comprehensive I bein these cused on singlequestions isolation. butnot substantially Italianeconomicdevelopment ourunderstanding. Theywerenotpure on maintaining their subsistence butinstead focused maximizers profit their riskof ruin.178. Economy.22. for is unknowable that thesemodelstypically require precision outthe not necessitate do models economic However. change. ourassumptions Imperial in this and costs not reflected fromimmensecommunication lags but economics also Romanswerenotsolelymotivated model.coherent. lineofan economy story. rules-of-thumb. Morley. Yeo.Ancient Conquerors. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions ."MarketEconomy". knowing precise Thebroad andaccurate totella basic.87 by by andconventions. 87 andDuncanJones. This content downloaded from 159. that thecomplex considers of a coherent hereis itscrystallization story in an and delivers of manysimultaneous interactions economy changes This quantified a broad seriesof testable storyis more predictions.The model'ssimplified of Italianeconomic thebroadstory tool fortelling useful development tool. "LandandSea Transportation". modelsuch as thatused thepowerof an economic ited. able historical themodel's other and its assumption of evidencesupports predictions Roman markets and economic motivation and imperial well-integrated rationalism."Wine".Temin.27 on Wed. of ourunderstanding The basic powerof a modelis itsformalization underofformalized The combination ofcause andeffect relationships. Despite to employ ecoalikehavehesitated and economists historians lievethat because the the ancient world of in their models nomic degreeof study that era.

(LG)9 (Ly) sectors. Two intion(U) andthree ofproduction factors is termediate as factor Manure also function (M) and feed(GB)9 inputs. Manure'ssupply is givenby theproduction function formanure aboveandbydemand from thegrain (MG)andwine(Mw)sectors L = LG + Lw + Lu S = SG + Sw + SB + Su R = RG+ Rw + RB M=MG + MW markets are suppliedby imports and deand domestic Commodity production mandedby domestic consumers and exports. (gA)andtheurban population with laborandslavesconsuming their grain.livestock (RB) sectors. production low areCobb-Douglas in form with constant returns to scale. anddemand.landlords. Labordemand derives from thegrain wine(Z.land(R). Government production imports bythepercapitaamount distributed and slavesdemand {Lv).178. labor(L).andS): pliedbytheir + GM+G = GB+ gLL+gsS GA where GA=gALu. + QMG + 0SG= 1 G = AcLeLGReRGKfMG?fSG where 0LG+ 6RG W = AwLeLWReRW\fMWtf)sw where0LW+0RW+0w+0sw = 1 + 0GB + 0SB=\ B = ABRdRBGeGB^SB where 0RB U = AuL6W^slJ where 0LU+ 0su=l M=AmB In equilibrium. byexports spend fractions andrjLW on wineandr/RU andrjLU on urban total incomes (rjRW goods)oftheir (YRand YL)on wineandurban goods: W=Wx+fiRwYR+ riLwYL U=Ux+rjRUYR + rlLUYL This content downloaded from 159. and livestock and slaves from thegrain(SG).grain The modelhas four sectors (#). andslaves(S). The grainsupplycomes from private market forfree distributions (GM).1054 Geraghty use of economic modelsin thestudy of thedistant pastwouldmakea on ourunderstanding ofancient history.22. Feed (GB). goods. and urban(Su) sectors.andurban (G).andurban landfrom thegrain wine(Rw). degivenexogenously. (RG).laborers. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .andItalian imports grain aredetermined ofgrain (G). (SB).manure beand functions livestock feed consists of The produced by entirely grain. Landlords andlaborers (WxandUx).government imports (GA).27 on Wed. wine(W). Wineandurban goodsare supplied (W and U) anddesolelyby Italian production manded andlaborers.^).wine (Sw). significant positive impact A Computable General Appendix: Equilibrium ModelofRoman Italy . percapitarequirements (gi andgs) multitotal factor endowments (Z. factor markets balancesupply. livestock produc. rivedfrom thesectors in whicheach factor is employed.

equilibrium equivalent wage. Import grain (puUx). The nominal which consist ofsubsistence wagerate(wL)is and other commodities subsistence grainrequirements (pGgi) (yL). The spentupon to the at rural has two nominal urban wage.22.Wagerate production paidto laborin urban to slave m:Rateofreturn This content downloaded from 159.ps'. components. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . I solvedthemodelby handandused Microsoft Tables 1-7.and taxesleviedupontheprovinces exports markets (pgGa). exports value includes (7).27 on Wed. costs(pGgs) andprice(ps). by thegovernment imported theprovinces from andslavesimported (psS): + psS PwWx+PuUx+T=pGGA+pGGM which Excel to examine itsresults.livestock is similar: market + rjLBYL B = rjRBYR totalincome(YR) from land rents to Landlords receivetheir (dR) and thereturn costs. goods.Priceofmanure wL:Wagerate paidto labor sector wy.Impact ofGlobalization 1055 is nontraded.178. sector thewage paid by theurban (wu) and theincome provided by thegrain namely dole(pGgA)' = dR + m-pGgsS YR m=PGgs+Ps WL=PGgL+yL = Wu+PGgA WL that whichstates thevalue of is thebalanceof tradecondition. The finalequation valueincludes wineexports urban Export (pwWx).andurban grain. inAppendix areshown Table 1 Appendix VARIABLE DEFINITIONS Variables Exogenous Variables Endogenous R: Landendowment G: Totalgrain byItalian producers produced Totalwineproduced L: Laborendowment W\ byItalian producers S: Slave endowment B: Totallivestock producers produced byItalian U: Totalurban producers production byItalian price pG:Grain ofmanure M: Totalamount Wineprice pw\ feed ofgrain usedfor goodsprice GF Totalamount Pu: Urban market amount of Total subsisPer GM: imported bytheprivate grain capita gs: from Totalamount ofwineexported for Wx: tence Italy requirement from ofurban slaves Ux:Totalamount Italy production exported theprovinces from oftaxescollected T: Totalamount gL:Percapitasubsisincome oflandlord Totalamount for YLL: tence requirement than on goodsother oflaborincome Percapitaamount labor spent grain yL\ al. Otherwise thelivestock Unlike wine.grainimported by theprivate (pgGm).Annualized priceofa slave gA:Percapitagrain rent on land free labor d: Annual lotment for inurban centers pB:Priceoflivestock Pm.At equilibrium slavereturns slaves(m) minus subsistence equateto slave costs. equalsthevalueofimports.

20 +2.59 (U) kRG 0.10 0.13 0.85 +16 -5 +26 0.42 0 0.30 0.24 -90 -15 kSB Urban -44 0.40 0.560 Aw (Wx) 0.1056 Geraghty Appendix Table 2 EXOGENOUS SHOCK DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDES Variable Exogenous Laborendowment (I) Landendowment (R) Slave endowment (5) Grain price(pG) Wineprice0M Urban goodsprice(pv) Annona allotment (gA) Sources:See thetext. shocks. andother initial conditions stated inAppendix Tables2.43 0. Low High Sector Share Initial Final Final Final Grain -36 -55 -5 0. % Change Average -2 +6.18 kRB 0.28 0.37 0.10 (M) GrainIm. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 4.178.05 Feed(G5) Manure +54 +33 +60 0.670 +830 +2.05 0. respectively.56 0.12 .080 +970 +2.030 (Ux) kSG exports Taxes (7) 0.08 0.5 +140 -20 +20 +10 +33 Low % Change -5 0 +100 -20 +10 +5 +10 High% Change +10 +10 +200 +20 +30 +15 +50 Appendix Table 3 MODEL OUTPUTS Variables Endogenous Output Av.30 Wine(JF) 0.875 0.270 kMG 0.51 (G) kLG +410 +290 +500 kLW 0.15 0.(GM) 0.60 0. and7.29 Urban +560 +590 0. This content downloaded from 159.01 0. The modelis basedon exogenous income factor income elasticities.82 +440 +140 +480 0. 5.58 0.11 Manure +16 price(pM) Landlord income +92 -45 +170 (YR) Slave price(ps) +160 -42 +200 Sources:See thetext and modelas specified in theAppendix.38 1 +1.025 0.22.31 0.10 0.29 0.40 ksw Ruralwage(wL) +12 0.41 Livestock +16 -5 +26 0.00 0 +1.0 (5) kw Urban +100 +40 +200 0.80 Wineexports 0.62 0.15 0.39 -60 +23 ksu wage(wt/) -46 -58 +21 Rent(rf) Slave return +64 -16 +81 (m) Livestock -12 -11 +16 price(pB) . % Low% High% Change Change Change Sector Shares Factor Av.61 kRW 0.03 0.26 0. shares.27 on Wed. 6. I solvedthemodelusingMicrosoft Excel.43 0.23 0.

01 kSG 0.2 Xmw 0. respect Sources:See thetext.15 0.10 0SG 0.05 0.85 0.7 kRG 0.5 0.95 0.1 0.15 ksB 0.178.1 0. (Ota).2 0.1 0.22.1 0.05 0.3 0. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .15 0.10 0. For example.4 6GB 0. production tograin laborwith (kLG).15 0. dedicated to theproduction ofthefactor shareis theproportion sector Note:A factor shareof is thefactor sector to grain of labordedicated theproportion For example.1 0.05 0.01 0.15 Bmw 0.2 Omg 0. This content downloaded from 159.01 0.5 6LG 0.3 0.875 kLG 0.3 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.8 0.15 0.4 0.2 6LW 0.01 0.6 Orb 0.35 0.27 on Wed.5 0.3 0.05 kRW 0.7 0.7 6W 0.9 0.3 0.8 kMG 0.5 0.9 0.2 0SB 0.5 0. theshareof totalrevenue from is earned grain by each factor sees as income is labor'sfactor income shareofgrain that thelaborproducing grain production Sources:See thetext.ofGlobalization Impact Appendix Table 4 EXOGENOUS FACTOR INCOME SHARES Income Share Factor Value Average Low Value 1057 HighValue 0.10 kLU 0.4 0.6 0su of income derived from thesale of an output that income shareis theproportion Note:A factor in itsproduction.4 ksw 0.1 kRB 0.3 0.4 0.4 0RW 0.4 ksu ofa sector.2 0.45 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0sw 0.3 0.10 0.5 0.5 6RG 0.025 kLW 0.05 0.3 0. Table 5 Appendix INITIAL FACTOR SECTOR SHARES Factor Sector Share Value Average Low Value HighValue 0.

24 spentuponwine. Landlords aUR 0. 5%. spenda fixed on grain for subsistence before wineandlivestock.Forexample. of whichat most1. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .96 approximately fortheannona.6 million aG 0.was 4.1058 Geraghty Appendix Table 6 EXOGENOUS INCOME ELASTICITIES Income Elasticity Value Average Low Value HighValue 0.5 0.14 modius. landlord incomewas HS 267 million of which60% was aWR 0.of which15% was awi 0.a of Thus.eExports This providesthatwine demandwas 56% landlords.25 0.3 0.20 spenton wine. to its approximate requirements.27 on Wed. Laborreceived subsistence to 40 modiin also equated recipients. five aMA 0.2 0.^ I assumethat axu 0.22.5 nLW 0.05 Italy's freepopulation consumednine timesmore grainthanthe slave Thus.and feed 85% of totalgrain demand.1 0. I assume that.g consisted of 80% slaves. consumedan average of 35 modii of grain per annum.8 grain.5 This content downloaded from 159.4 0.imports provided ofthetotal anddomestic theremainder.0 and theannonaformed 3% and 1.85 population.2 nRB Notes:An income is thefraction the oftotal income on eachgood.60% of livestock from laborers.6 0. Appendix Table 7 CALCULATION OF OTHER INITIAL CONDITIONS a Value Method The annonadistributed subsistence or40 modii.025 wineexports werethree times theamount ofurban olxt 0.5 rjLB 0.4 above.5 aGB 0. 24% labor.and 20% exports. the freepopulation aG$ 0.8 consumed theremaining 80%.7 nRW 0.03 fivemillion modiiof graintotal. freeand slave. wages.which real terms.6 spent thefigures demandcomes from landlords and 40% aBL 0. Italy imported aGM 0. Landlords and laborers incomes on livestock. 20% of urbanproducts were exported.totalimports aMS 0.15 0.d amounted to approximately 20% of wine demand.like wine.06 In 200 bc. Labor incomewas HS 200 per capita.5% Thus. grain supply production was slightly less thannine timesits slave population.6 0.urbanwages and freegrainprovided equal proportions total wages. The wineand livestock incomeelasticities of laborare calculated after forlabor'sgrain theassumption is that laborers amount accounting consumption.000 slaves and imported approximately million modiiof grain. 6% government grain.2 amounted to approximately inflows based on 10% of provincial axw 0.9 exports.3 nRU 0.015 In 200bc Italy'stotalpopulation.0 aGL 0.7 0.*1 Given 60% and 10% oftheir aBR 0. awG 0. elasticity spent fraction of their totalincomethatlandowners of landspendon wineis theincomeelasticity owners forwine{nRW).56 Minimum per annum. assumethat laborcomprised slaves 10%.1 I Feed was a relatively smallpartof theeconomy at thattime.9 million.5 awU 0. consuming Sources:See thetext.5 Each person aGA 0. 14% private and Thus. Italy possessed 500.bc Slaves cost HS 200 per annum and grainHS 5 per aMG 0.178.f awx 0.075 Total exports calculations of slave and grainimport and wineexport values. aux 0.

Cambridge: Cambridge University This content downloaded from 159.andTable 6.theproportion on grain and other spent goods. Romansin Northern Arthur. PeasantsandFood.London:British Schoolat Rome. aGarnsey bBrunt ItalianManpower. iugeraof land.35 REFERENCES and Land-UseAround the Paul. EmmaDench. 96.1982.14 population 500. oftotal GDP derived from andtheproportion labor. Jones.Included of urbanlabor'stotalwages derived theproduction of urban of grain consumed in Italy from goodsand theannona. Brunt.60 Italy'sfreepopulation g of earned returns of 400 slave HS annum. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . 121. This tableprovides conditions around myassumptions 200 bc where notalready income factor sector or income elasticshares. andthat thereturn that on landwas priceperiugerum costHS 400 perannum. ofSubsistence Agriculture.theproportion andtheannona. 14. 12.a consumption any 0.01 Taxespaidfor offivemillion modii at HS 4 permodius. of theRomanEmpire:Quantitative Press. iugera Italy possessed anR landpricewas HS 400.land. "Human 2. hDuncanJones. pp. Empire.the grain)as feed.1971. Jongman. Massicoand theGarigliano 225 B. 96.1991.5 pricesof HS 200. 1 Roman andSailer.C. Press. grain originating andurban and (for wine. CornSupply. Rickman. Slave subsistence to HS 200.27 on Wed.andDuncanJones. Patterson.andtaxes. goods) consumed by labor. Haswell. Oxford: Clarendon P.continued a Value Method 1059 40 million I assume 40% was cultivated. London:Macmillan. proportion landand slaves.5 subsistence. imports. inRomanItaly. 75% of theirincomeon grainand 25% on other awG 0. givenbyfactor in thistable(in order)are theproportion ities. Curti.TheEconomics Third Colin. Economy.theproportion earned from of slave pricesderived landlord income from subof laborincome sistence costsand slave prices. 151. ans 0. p. Economy p. 51-52.other and slaves.000slavesthat for income andslaves35%. p. eGarnsey f "Italian Tchernia. gRickman. andTable 6. Campania:Settlement Basin. . shares.22. Cities. p. Trends and Approaches." p.andJohn R. pp. ItalianManpower.75 Labor spentapproximately goods.c grain imports on theItalianeconomy'sinitial Notes'.000 percapitaper 40 million of of which was under 40% cultivation.-A. c CornSupply.D.4 million earnedHS 200 percapitaperannum.25 land.landlords.livestock." TheJournal RomanItaly:Recent and Southern ofRomanStudies 86 (1996): 170-89. slaves. that landaccounts 65% oflandlord amortized Slave pricesof HS 2.8 Thismeans 6%. p. in theform of wine.Impact ofGlobalization Appendix Table 7 . d and Society. PeasantsandFood. Wine.urban of totalexports goods.25 e Its of 4. 36-42.theproportion in theform oftotalimports of theannona. A.65 aRS 0.theproportion of grain.178. andtheaverage As above.000 provide amQ 0. Sources'. Economy. 195. Edition.andMargaret Clark.h anT 0. slaves.hItalypossessed500.ofwhich Italycontained theaverage was HS 400. 0.gThus. "TheArchaeology ofCentral Emmanuele. p. Garnsey ] Scheidel. Cities.theaverage return was 6%.The Economy Studies." Mobility olrr 0.theproportion from Italian ofeachcommodity farms. 92. anL 0. output (grain. 1967.slave costswere50% priceand 50% costsalso amounted amp 0.and taxes. DuncanRichard.

Ray.and Food in Classical Antiquity. Garnsey.TheEconomy and Society J. vardUndergraduate Economic 2004. no.Conquerors Vol. "Did the GreatIrishFamineMatter?" 1-22. and Culand Richard Sailer. "Slaveryin theAncient Review9. ofAncient D'ArmsandE. 1998." Studies 1\ (1981): 10-23. Cambridge University .C. "Land in Roman and the Laurence. Phillips.Amsterdam: 1988. "FeedingRome: The RomanGrainMarket. M. 1986." In Trade. Famineand Food Supplyin theGraeco-Roman World: Responsesto Risk and Crisis.-A. This Journal 51.DennisP. Finley. of California Press. Willem. WilliamD. Shipwrecks oftheMediterranean BAR International ford: Series. Cambridge: Press.1060 Geraghty in theRomanWorld.Cities. and Slaves: SociologicalStudies in RomanHistory. Slavery Trade. del. Berkeley: 1973. . Commerce Rome:Studies inArchaeology and History. C. Cambridge University de Neeve. London:Routledge. "Wine and Wealthin Ancient Purcell. EarlyEmpire. 200 BC-200 AD. editedby Catherine 2003. Garnsey.200. "The Development of Agriculture in the'AgerCosanus' durRathbone.P. World."The EconomicHistory Jones. Rudolf HabeltGmbh.Cambridge: 1988." and its Social Consequences Evans. TheArchaeology London:B."In TheSeaborne Harris. "Slavery andtheGrowth ofRome:The Transformation ofItalyintheSecond and Firstcenturies EdB.E. Greene. Transport Italy:Costs. Walter ScheiPeasants. of theRomanEmpire. Batsford Ltd. Cambridge University Press. Peter. the Roman Problems of Evidence and TheJournal ing Republic: Interpretation. Press. "Towardsa Studyof theRomanSlave Trade. Economy. Cambridge University the and Investment on EstatesinRomanEgypt Kehoe.Ancient and theRoman Provinces. 1 O'Rourke.1984. Gieben. 1992. "Taxes and Tradein theRomanEmpire (200 B. ofRomeand theItalianEcon200 B. Survey ofAncient theEmpire. in Archives. Berkeley: University Kevin. byHelenParkins Smith.1998. Press.100-22. ofRoman A. Kopff. Colonus:Private theRepublic in Roman Farm-Tenancy Italyduring and theearly Amsterdam: J. omy. no. edited byJ. Peter.J. and theAncient andChristopher edited City.1996. Available Harvard Thesis.H.22.D. Neville. Cambridge: 1978.1992. fromRoman Timesto theEarly Transatlantic ofMinnesota Press.Volume Frank.27 on Wed. Management during Bonn:Dr.D. V: Romeand Italyof An Economic Rome.1990."TheJournal of RomanStudies75 (1985): 1-19. Rome:American at Rome. Gieben.1959.Cambridge: Press. ofPompeii. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Italy.C. OxParker.178. 1." In Rome the Cosmopolis. Ed. Academy Keith. Society. Cambridge University . ofRoman This content downloaded from 159. The Ancient University Economy.TheRomanEmpire:Economy.C. WilliamV. W. Hopkins. Cambridge: Press.C.David.Traders. 2 (1956): 185-99. NJ:Pageant Paterson.C-A. ture. Principate.Kevin. Books." TheJournal Studies 70 (1980): 101-25. Jongman. J. (1991): A.1985.Moses I.Metropolis and Hinterland: TheCity Morley. "WheatProduction TheClassicalQuarterly 31 (1981): 428-42. T. Minneapolis: University N. H. 400).Practice. of California 1987.K. Tenney." HarKessler. DominicW. wardsandGregWoolf.

Shorter. "Framing Economy. Macmillan. London:SociSpurr." "A Market TheJournal Peter. Agriculture. ofCalifornia 87-105. ArableCultivation Italyc.Hannibal 's Effects on Roman Life.178.A." In TheAncient edWalter. 1986."HumanMobility Roman Studies 94 Journal of (2004): 1-26. edited Peter Keith and Ancient C. etyfor in at "Italian Wine Gaul the End of theRepublic." In Tradein the Andre.27 on Wed. Roman Ithaca. London: Sodersten. University in theEarlyRomanEmpire. Rome:Analecta RomanaInstituti Danici. nomic Growth Center. by Jesper 58. S. Press.New York: Economy. Empire. Reed. in RomanItaly. Geoffrey. R. D'ErudesLatines."Land and Sea Transportation Italy. D. Jeffrey 27 (1990): 123-56. 2002. Toynbee. W.Brussels:LatomusRevue Israel. Inequality.SenatorialWealth Shatzman. Routledge. Orsted. 1993. Pasquale.1: The Free Population. 2003."ExploraG. VT: VaC." The Scheidel."Transactions 11 221-44. theDebate overGrowth in theAncient In The Sailer. the American Philological Society (1946): of ceedings This content downloaded from 159.1994. R. Farming.Richard. and Geoffrey 1994. ThirdEdition. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. White. "HumanMobility TheJournal of Roman Studies 95 (2005). II: Romeand herNeighbors Hannibal'sExit. Press.Walter. tions inEconomic History TheKuznets Memorial Lectures and History: . Bo."Slaves and Coloniin theVilla System. City. 28 Aug 2013 13:42:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Press."Introduction. Economy.1964. Berkeley: Press. itedby Walter Scheideland Sittavon Reden. Press. Economy. by Garnsey.1983. and Jens 145Carlsen. 's Legacy: TheHannibalicWar Arnold J.200 B.London:Oxford UniVolume after 1995. "The Impact Williamson. Oxford:Clarendon Rickman.Romeand herEmpire. and Sittavon Reden. Whittaker." Ancient editedby WalterScheideland Sittavon Reden. Cedric.CT: Yale Theodore Schultz. inRoman M. Economy ofRomanStudies 91 (2001): 169-81. Press.D.C-c. 2: The Slave Population. of theCornLaws just Prior to Repeal. Transforming Traditional New Haven. 100.22. Tchernia. oftheEcoYale University. Poverty. in RomanItaly. Whittaker. in Imperial and ProYeo. International Economics. 1991. rorium." . In Landusein theRoman Rosafio. University and RomanPolitics. Land. Scheidel. Temin.1970. 1975. 1980.Edinburgh: Edinburgh University 2002. Hopkins. thePromotion ofRomanStudies. versity NY: Cornell K. David.Brookfield. University and Tradein theRomanEmpire." edited Peter ErikSkydsgaard. New York:Longman.Impact ofGlobalization 1061 The Corn Supplyof Ancient Rome.