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Valuation of Warren

Buffett Stock Picks


(Current stock prices vary due to timing of writing)
Warren Buffett Stock Picks:
Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) Stock Value
Part 1
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) is a medical
Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 technology company that operates through three business
segments: BD Medical, BD Diagnostics, and BD Biosciences.
With Berkshire Hathaway disclosing their holdings in their
latest 2nd quarter 13-F, I thought it would be interesting to go
through each position that is held and calculate the stock value
in hopes of gaining some ideas.
Going through portfolio’s of respected investors is another
way of generating ideas. Davy Bui of The Enlightened
American does a fine job of tracking and displaying hedge fund
holdings of respected investors in an easy to read format.
There are 41 positions in the portfolio of Warren Buffett and
Berkshire so I’ll be breaking it up over numerous posts.

Old School Value’s Circle of Competence BDX Spider Graph


Although I’ll try to put a value on each company, except (The above graph is from an analysis of BDX which is posted
financials, there are industries that are outside of my circle of at Dividend Growth Investor.)
competence which I may calculate incorrectly.
• Gross, operating and net margins steadily increasing
E.g. I don’t know much about pharmaceuticals and even in recessionary environment
commodities and how to look at these businesses as a future
going concern which will make it difficult to apply a growth • FCF positive for more than 10 years
rate that I would be comfortable with compared to others. • Inventory turnover consistent but margins have
Going through the first 10 Stock Ideas increased. Leads to higher efficiency and profit.
• ROA and ROE increasing steadily
• American Express (AXP) - outside circle of competence
• Reduced debt
• Bank of America (BAC) - outside circle of competence
• Has plenty of FCF to pay down debt rather than issue
• Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) - Latest addition to the stock or seek loans
portfolio
• CROIC is very steady at 17%. Company makes 17c off
• Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) every $1 of cash invested
• CarMax (KMX) • FCF/sales = 12%. Converts 12c of every dollar in sales to
• Coca Cola (KO) - quick analysis FCF.
• Comcast Corp (CMCSA)
Intrinsic Value Estimates
• Comdisco Holding (CDCO) DCF Stock Value: $87
• ConocoPhilips (COP) Graham Stock Value: $110
• Costco (COST) - analysis
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Competitor and Peer Comparison: $76 • Highest accounts receivables to date. Check whether it is
due to non paying customers or more lenient terms.
• No intangibles (as it should be with low to no moat
companies)
• No long term debt
• Capex a little lower than the upper range
• Latest year cash from operations included higher
amount of interest from securities and cash from
reduction inventory
• Inventory turnover at the upper range
• FCF and CROIC close to 0%

BDX Price vs Value Graph Intrinsic Value Estimates


Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) Stock DCF Stock Value: N/A
Value Graham Stock Value: $11 - $15
Burlington Northern Santa Fe is a holding company and Competitor and Peer Comparison: N/A
engaged primarily in the freight rail transportation business.
Can’t seem to get within an acceptable fair value range on
• Impressive FCF growth previous 4 years and especially CarMax.
last year Thin margins, cyclical, inconsistent with low returns. Not
• High capex but latest annual result was extraordinary quite sure how this position fits in. Definitely doesn’t look like
a Buffett pick.
• lower sales and margins but improved efficiency in
returns and turnover Coca Cola (KO) Stock Value
• CROIC is on the low side at 3% No introduction needed.
• Top line growth is also above average at 14% • Price and value have been consistent
• Debt to equity ratio is above 200% which isn’t • Numbers throughout the past 10 years are excellent
uncommon for capex heavy companies
• Previous business spider graph, fair value estimate and
Intrinsic Value Estimates automated KO dcf valuation
DCF Stock Value: $87
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Graham Stock Value: $145 DCF Stock Value: $38 - $44
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $76 Graham Stock Value: $61
Competitor and Peer Comparison: Looks fairly valued

BNI Price vs Value Graph


KO Price & Value Graph
CarMax (KMX) Stock Value
The Company is a retailer of used cars. Comcast Corp (CMCSA) Stock Value
Comcast Corporation is a provider of cable TV, internet and
• Increase in gross margins but decline in operating and
phone services.
net margin
• Increased cash levels but a huge amount

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• FCF and CROIC are close. 10.9% and 9.4% respectively.
This scenario occurs when a company has matured
without much growth to be expected.
• Excellent margins and very stable returns in both the
2001 and 2008 recession
• Not over leveraged
• Plenty of FCF to cover debt
• Big decrease in tangible shareholders equity since 2005
• Intangibles more than double in 2007

Intrinsic Value Estimates


DCF Stock Value: N/A CDCO Ben Graham Net Net Value
Graham Stock Value: $22
ConocoPhilips (COP) Stock Value
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $12.48
The investment which Buffett admits he made a mistake for
buying at too high a price.

• First time looking at the financials but now see from


the rear view mirror why Buffett announced it was a big
mistake
• COP lost a HUGE amount of money in 2008
• Increased debt to $27 billion
• Large impairments seem to be showing up each quarter
wiping out shareholders equity
• Good FCF numbers except for 2008. Will normalize for
dcf value below
CMCSA Graham Formula
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Comdisco Holding (CDCO) Stock Value
DCF Stock Value: $64 adjusted to normalize a terrible year
Simply put, CDCO is a liquidation special situation.
Graham Stock Value: N/A
Using Ben Graham Net Net Spreadsheet, the liquidation value
looks to be worth $8.38 while the current price is at $7.50. Competitor and Peer Comparison: Looks to be on par with
With most of the assets in cash, this would have been a pretty competitors
good liquidation play had the spread been wider. In it’s current state, COP doesn’t look like a good hold.
Since the company emerged from bankruptcy in 2002, it
doesn’t seem like CDCO is in a hurry to sell the remaining Costco (COST) Stock Value
assets. An excellent analysis and description of Costco (COST), its
operations and valuation by Brad of TMWTFS.
With real liquidations involving some fees, the current 11%
margin of safety isn’t big enough to take a bite for an investor • FCF isn’t as high as it used to be
like myself.
• Rock solid margins - proves management is on top of
Ben Graham Net Net Value Estimate their game
Net Net Working Capital value: $8.38 • Inventory continues to churn at a faster rate
• Average CROIC but somewhat consistent

Intrinsic Value Estimates


DCF Stock Value: $39
Graham Stock Value: $47 looks to be the upper limit
Competitor and Peer Comparison: More expensive than
WMT. Should be around $37 based on competition.

Summary
Some obvious Buffett stock picks in this list while several seem
to have been by other managers.

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Took quite a while to get this all together but I hope you are • Debt level has been the same past few years
getting some ideas as well how I quickly look at companies to
• 8c from every dollar of sales converts down to the bottom
filter what I deem to be the good from the bad.
line
• Good margins prove the business can make money
Warren Buffett Stock Picks: during a hard recession
Part 2 • Regression of earnings compared over multiple
By Jae Jun on August 25th, 2009 timeframes is flat meaning that growth is coming from
other than organic business. Shown by the goodwill
Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 balance which I also discussed in the previous ETN stock
valuation.
Following on from the first part of Berkshire’s Stock Portfolio
Intrinsic Value Estimate
covering the first 10 stocks, let’s go through the next 10.
Current Price: $55.06
With each DCF valuation and Ben Graham formula, cyclical
downturns are adjusted slightly so as not to overly depress the DCF Stock Value: $76.42
intrinsic value, especially due to 2008. Graham Stock Value:
Since a stock valuation deals with what you believe the future
• 0% growth = $52.65
will bring based on the past and current information, if the
current year is a catastrophe which isn’t likely to be replicated • 7% growth = $134.53
year over year, it is best to adjust the values to a more “normal”
situation. Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fairly valued

Warren Buffett Stock Picks : 11-20


• Eaton Corporation (ETN) - previous stock valuation
• Gannett (GCI)
• General Electric (GE)
• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
• Home Depot (HD)
• Ingersoll-Rd Company (IR)
• Iron Mountain (IRM)
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - previous stock analysis
ETN DCF Value Graph
• Kraft Foods (KFT)
• Lowes (LOW) Gannett Inc (GCI) Valuation
International news and information company. Owner of
Eaton Corporation (ETN) Valuation newspapers and news websites.
The company is a diversified industrial manufacturer and • Horrific year in 2008
operates in 4 business segments.
• Huge impairments of goodwill and PP&E
1. Electrical - electrical systems and components for power • Printing equipment would also be of little value if resold
quality, distribution and control
• Totally contrarian investment
2. Hydraulics - fluid power systems and services for
industrial, mobile and aircraft equipment • Declining sales since 2006 and so has earnings

3. Aerospace - intelligent truck drivetrain systems for • Amazing CROIC despite performance. Excellent
safety and fuel economy management

4. Automotive - automotive engine air management • Business operations can generate FCF
systems, powertrain solutions and specialty controls for • Declining capex
performance, fuel economy and safety.
Intrinsic Value Estimate
• Looking back at my previous ETN stock analysis, looks
Current Price: $8.17
like my assumptions were over conservative.
DCF Stock Value: $30.47 @ 0% growth
• CROIC has been amazing past 10 years. Management is
doing a great job of using its cash. Graham Stock Value:
• Plenty of FCF
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• 0% growth = $33.21 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $32

Competitor and Peer Comparison: Print and media industry


shunned by The Street and looks undervalued.

GSK DCF Valuation


GCI Ben Graham Spreadsheet Home Depot (HD) Valuation
General Electric (GE) Valuation Home improvement retailer.
Diversified company doing business in basically everything. • Struggled with the housing bust
• Plenty of cash from all of its operations • Low growth
• High debt ratio and increasing past 2-3 years • Slowed down opening new stores dramatically if you look
at capex further
• Average CROIC of 3%
• Plenty of FCF
• FCF/Sales is pretty good at 8%
• Average CROIC, FCF/Sales, Revenue growth, earning
• Stable inventory turnover in line with past 10 years
growth
• Maybe a good company but not great
Intrinsic Value Estimate
Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $27.03
Current Price: $14.20
DCF Stock Value: $27.23 @ default 5% FCF growth
DCF Stock Value: $15.64 @ 5% FCF growth
Graham Stock Value: $26.39
Graham Stock Value:
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $25
• 0% growth = $43.89 @ 8% EPS growth

Competitor and Peer Comparison: $18.75

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Valuation


Pharmaceutical company with principal products include
medicines in the therapeutic areas, oncology and emesis
(vomiting).

• Lots of FCF but slow growth


• Excellent CROIC above 30%. Able to make returns of
over 30% from their use of cash.
• Pharma companies also are able to drop the sales figures HD DCF valuation
directly to the FCF line
• High margins and returns as expected from drug Ingersoll-Rd Company (IR) Valuation
companies Operates in four segments:
• Big drop is tangible shareholders equity due to goodwill 1. Air Conditioning Systems and Services
fr0m acquisition activity
2. Climate Control Technologies
Intrinsic Value Estimate 3. Industrial Technologies
Current Price: $39.44
4. Security Technologies
DCF Stock Value: $43.79 @ default 6.5% FCF growth
• Big increase in goodwill in 2008
Graham Stock Value: $30 - $60 depending on pipeline
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• FCF positive yet erratic at times. Median of 11% FCF Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Valuation
growth
Good to excellent everything as I mentioned in the JNJ
• Excellent CROIC. Buffett sure does a good job of picking analysis.
effective management at the helm
Intrinsic Value Estimate
• Consistency in ROA and ROE when looking at multiple
Current Price: $61.28
timeframes
DCF Stock Value: $70.27. Not much different than the $71 I
• Revenue growth on the low side
got last time.
Intrinsic Value Estimate Graham Stock Value: $109.84 compared to $108 previously.
Current Price: $30.94 Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fairly valued compared to
DCF Stock Value: $20 @ default 11% FCF growth adjusted competitors
Graham Stock Value: $51.30
Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fair to slight premium

JNJ DCF Valuation

Kraft Foods (KFT) Valuation


IR DCF stock value Manufactures and sells packaged food products, including
snacks, beverages, cheese, convenient meals and various
Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) Valuation packaged grocery products.
Provides information protection and storage services.
• Margins decreasing for more than 7 years straight
• Lost more FCF than it made throughout the past 10 years • Inventory turnover has been improving
• None or very low FCF growth, CROIC, returns • No FCF growth
• Steady increase in sales but can’t convert it to FCF • Makes 22c of every $1 invested (CROIC=22%)
• Doesn’t look like a Buffett pick at all • Growth is minimal
Intrinsic Value Estimate • Increasing debt
Current Price: $29.39
Intrinsic Value Estimate
DCF Stock Value: N/A Current Price: $28.40
Graham Stock Value: $20.79 @ 13% growth rate DCF Stock Value: N/A
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $13.40 Graham Stock Value: $19.96
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $24

IRM Graham Formula

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Lowe’s (LOW) Valuation Warren Buffett Stock Holdings : 21-30
Another home improvement retailer.
• M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) - outside circle of
Buffett hasn’t backed down from buying the number 1 and competence
2 company in an industry. He doesn’t believe that you
should only buy one company from an industry for portfolio
• Moody’s (MCO) - - outside circle of competence
diversification purposes.
• NRG Energy (NRG)
• Better growth opportunity that Home Depot
• Nalco Holding (NLC)
• Good FCF growth but CROIC is very low at 2%. Better
• Nike (NKE)
than nothing but not effective with utilizing capital.
• Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)
• Good revenue and earnings growth
• Procter & Gamble (PG)
• Gross margins increasing to date
• Sanofi Aventis (SNY)
• Debt down to average levels
• Sun Trusts Banks Inc. (STI) - outside circle of
• Tangible book value increasing
competence
• ROE and ROA declining past 2 years
• Torchmark Corp (TMK) - outside circle of competence
• Sales flat since 2007
• The macro idea that people will continue to repair and NRG Energy (NRG)
improve houses still doesn’t work well in a recession. Wholesale power generation company. Owns more than 189
• If I had to choose LOW or HD, I would go for LOW. Or active operating generation units at 48 power generation
be like Buffett and get both. plants.

• Had a big year in 2008


Intrinsic Value Estimate
Current Price: $20.72 • Big margins increase in 2008 and since 2005

DCF Stock Value: $18.91 • Increase in short term and long term debt

Graham Stock Value: $52.66 • Company is able to make money but its returns are ont
he low side.
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $22
• Mean ROA and CROIC of 2.7% and 5% respectively.
Lower than competition
• FCF isn’t consistent.
• Huge increase in capex in 2008
• Large amount of taxes deferred.
• Still converts 12% of sales into FCF

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Current Price: $27.76
Warren Buffett Stock Picks: DCF Stock Value: $37.11
Part 3 Graham Stock Value: $34
By Jae Jun on August 31st, 2009
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $58
Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4
Nalco Holding (NLC)
Provider of integrated water treatment applications to prevent
We are now up to the second half of valuing the holdings corrosion, contamination and the buildup of harmful deposits.
of Berkshire Hathaway via the DCF valuation method, Ben
Graham formula as outlined in the Intelligent Investor, and a • Needs to improve efficiency. 40+% margins but negative
simple multiples valuation based on PE, cash flow, sales and net income or low single digits at best isn’t good
other metrics compared to the competition and industry.
• Decrease in intangibles suggests bad acquisitions and
Of the 10 companies I go through in this post, I’ll be passing mistakes by management
on Moody’s, M&T Bank, Sun Trusts Banks and Torchmark as
• Long term debt is steady
I do not know how to value financial stocks.
• Been buying back stock
• FCF isn’t reliable. Lots of cash come from “other” income

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• Low returns, cash and earnings growth • Debt can be handled with FCF rather than taking on
additional debt
• Doesn’t look like something Buffett would buy
Intrinsic Value Estimate
Intrinsic Value Estimate
FCF growth is at 22.8% but if you look at how the value of the
Numbers aren’t reliable enough for a proper valuation.
company has tracked the share price over the past 5-7 years,
Current Price: $17.52 the company has been growing at the rate of its CROIC. i.e. the
DCF Stock Value: N/A cash returns of its invested capital.

Graham Stock Value: N/A Current Price: $46.91

Competitor and Peer Comparison: $22 DCF Stock Value: $61


Graham Stock Value: $120 - high value due to excellent
Nike (NKE) earnings growth
Sells athletic footwear, apparel and sports products.
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $54
• Great company, leader, innovator, huge moat
• Drop in margins in 2008 but increased inventory
turnover
• Low debt with plenty of cash
• Can pay off debt with FCF easily
• Don’t have to go in detail with numbers. They are just
too good.

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Stability and predictability makes it easy to value.
Current Price: $56.18
NSC Intrinsic Value
DCF Stock Value: $65
Graham Stock Value: $77 Procter & Gamble (PG)
Sells consumer good that you use everyday.
Competitor and Peer Comparison: fairly valued at $56 (trades
at a premium to competition) • Wrote about PG briefly in the Best Stocks to retire list
• FCF growth above 18%
• CROIC at 60%! Mindblowing.
• Only negative is big drops in tangible shareholders
equity
• Stable margins. Net margins even increased in 2008
• Good stable dividend

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Included a 10 year version of the intrinsic value graph to show
how price and value end up meeting.

NKE Intrinsic Value Graph Current Price: $53.19


DCF Stock Value: $76 - increased from my previous DCF
Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) valuation
Rail company. Another rail company in the portfolio along
Graham Stock Value: $97 - slightly down from previous
with Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI).
Graham calculation
• Looks to be a better company than BNI Competitor and Peer Comparison: $67
• Good top line growth
• Decrease in gross profit but managed to increase net
margins
• Lots of FCF and excellent FCF growth
• Low end for CROIC at 4%

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Up till now, I’ve taken a look at the holdings of Buffett, valued
each one according to my methods based on free cash flow
and DCF valuation, Benjamin Graham’s formula and a simple
multiples method.
In this final section of Buffett’s 2009 stock picks, I’ll go
through what I know, pass on the usual financials i.e.
US Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Wesco Financial, and then
summarize all 41 picks and their valuations again.
Regarding Wesco, I remember vaguely reading in Munger’s
book, Poor Charlie’s Almanack, that he doesn’t expect much
appreciation in the stock. So if Munger says that about his own
company, then that’s enough for me to believe him and move
PG Intrinsic Value on to better value stock opportunities.

Sanofi Aventis (SNY) Warren Buffett’s Stock Picks: 31-41


Pharmaceutical company. • U.S. Bancorp (USB) - Outside circle of competence
• Stats look good but some metrics are quite erratic
• USG Corporation (USG)
• FCF growth is up and down
• Union Pacific Corp (UNP)
• Top line isn’t so consistent
• United Parcel Service (UPS)
• FCF and earnings growth is relatively low
• United Health (UNH)
• Has outstanding returns and converts it to plenty of FCF
• Wabco Holdings (WBC) - Not enough data
• Debt is not an issue
• Wal-Mart (WMT)
• Maybe MRK or PFE would be better?
• Washington Post (WPO)
Intrinsic Value Estimate • Wells Fargo (WFC) - Outside circle of competence
Not quite sure about what future products the company has
• Wellpoint (WLP)
but from the current snapshot of the company, I get the
following figures. • Wesco Financial Corp (WSC) - Outside circle of
competence
Current Price: $34.53
DCF Stock Value: $47 USG Corporation (USG)
Graham Stock Value: $18 Makes and sells building materials.
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $36
• Rose with the housing market. Dropped with the housing
market.
• The capex numbers show in hindsight how USG had high
capex at the peak of the housing bubble.
• Been losing a lot of cold hard cash in the process - FCF
• Tiny gross profits from good revenue
• Turnover back down to 10.9 compared to 12.2 from the
previous year
• Even if I ignore 2008 numbers and imagine looking at
the company in 2006 or 2007, numbers still aren’t great.

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Current Price: $14.70 No reliable data or numbers to calculate
intrinsic value. Only thing I can say with certainty is that the
Warren Buffett Stock Picks: tangible book value is at $14.14. Throw it on the pass pile.

Part 4 Union Pacific Corp (UNP)


By Jae Jun on September 10th, 2009 Another rail company. Buffett sure likes his train sets.
Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 • Good tangible book value growth. Shows that growth is
organic.
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• Top line growth is impressive. Median of 33% in the past Competitor and Peer Comparison: overpriced. Should be
5 years. around $35-$40
• CROIC is just below 2%. Only makes 2c off every $1 of
cash invested.
• FCF growth isn’t much to consider unless you compare
it to capex.
• Seems like earnings and FCF is realized 3 years after the
capex outlay.
• Consistent reduction in debt.
• Rising margins since 2004 to highest levels.
• NSC still looks to be the better company.

Intrinsic Value Estimate United Health (UNH)


Numbers aren’t reliable enough for a proper valuation. Healthcare company. A previous holding of mine until August.
Current Price: $62.25
• Healthcare is a great industry for cash flows.
DCF Stock Value: $54.81 @ 14% growth, 15% discount rate.
• Highly profitable business but has a lot of economic
Graham Stock Value: $95.40 factors involved
Competitor and Peer Comparison: Looks fairly valued • Universal healthcare is just uncertainty which provides
a better deal for investors
• Outstanding FCF, CROIC and profitability return
numbers
• Huge drop in tangible shareholders equity
• Try looking at the smaller healthcare companies.

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Current Price: $28.40
DCF Stock Value: $61 @ 15% FCF growth and 9% discount rate
Graham Stock Value: $64 @ 9% growth
United Parcel Service (UPS) Competitor and Peer Comparison: $40
Courier company. Delivers packages.

• Huge moat.
• Stock price affected by high oil price.
• Reducing capex past 2 years. How will it affect future
results?
• Past 5 years hasn’t been great for UPS. Went no where.
• Good stable CROIC at 11%
• Earnings YOY isn’t good. Shows a decline.
• Margins are good but there are huge overhead costs as
expected. 75+% gross margin but only 6-9% net margin.
Wal-Mart (WMT)
• Big rise in debt King of retail.
• Still better than FDX
• FCF doubled compared to past year. Highest its ever
Intrinsic Value Estimate been.
Stability and predictability makes it easy to value. • No change in margins. WMT doesn’t need to lower
margins.
Current Price: $55.43
• Highest inventory turnover rate ever in 10 years at 8.9
DCF Stock Value: $52.72 @ 15% growth and 9% discount rate
(although COST has better turnover)
Graham Stock Value: $85 - $90 @ 13% growth
• Tangible book value consistently up.
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• Good top line and bottom line growth.
• Rock solid.

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Current Price: $51.11
DCF Stock Value: $57 @ 13% growth and 9% discount rate
Graham Stock Value: $70 @ 9% EPS growth
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $60

Wellpoint (WLP)
Healthcare company.

• Again, Buffett likes to buy in pairs.


• Much like UNH. Great cash flow, great numbers.
• By the numbers, I prefer UNH.
• Dependent on macro factors.

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Washington Post (WPO) Current Price: $52.84
Newspaper, media company. DCF Stock Value: $86.91 @ 13% growth and 9% discount rate
• Media has been one of the worst industries in the past Graham Stock Value: $118 @ 10% EPS growth
year. Especially with everyone believing that newspapers Competitor and Peer Comparison: $64-$70
will become extinct.
• Fiscal 2008 saw a big decline in everything. Sales, profit,
cash, book value, ROE, ROA
• Management still used its cash effectively with a CROIC
of 12.2%
• FCF positive with stable capex.
• Capital expenditures have been steady for 4-5 years now.
• Tells me that most of the current $280mil in capex is due
to maintenance rather than growth.

Intrinsic Value Estimate


Not very certain about the growth of the print business so I’ll
keep things conservative. Current Price: $435.45 DCF Stock Warren Buffett’s Stock Portfolio Analysis
Value: Normalized FCF back to a reasonable $200 million as You view all comments and intrinsic value estimates of all 41
this is what the company has been able to achieve for the past stocks in the pdf below.
10 years.
Warren Buffett Stock Portfolio Analysis and Valuation
• $293 @ 0% growth and 9% discount rate Disclosure
• $358 @ 5% growth and 9% discount rate No positions in any stock mentioned
Graham Stock Value:

• $240 @ 0% growth
• $492 @ 5% growth

Competitor and Peer Comparison: N/A Industry and


competitors have all fared horribly to be able to provide any
reliable valuation. Seems like GCI is the better pick in terms
of value.

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