Valuation of Warren Buffett Stock Picks

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: Part 1
Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 With Berkshire Hathaway disclosing their holdings in their latest 2nd quarter 13-F, I thought it would be interesting to go through each position that is held and calculate the stock value in hopes of gaining some ideas. Going through portfolio’s of respected investors is another way of generating ideas. Davy Bui of The Enlightened American does a fine job of tracking and displaying hedge fund holdings of respected investors in an easy to read format. There are 41 positions in the portfolio of Warren Buffett and Berkshire so I’ll be breaking it up over numerous posts. (Current stock prices vary due to timing of writing)

Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) Stock Value
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) is a medical technology company that operates through three business segments: BD Medical, BD Diagnostics, and BD Biosciences.

Old School Value’s Circle of Competence
Although I’ll try to put a value on each company, except financials, there are industries that are outside of my circle of competence which I may calculate incorrectly. E.g. I don’t know much about pharmaceuticals and commodities and how to look at these businesses as a future going concern which will make it difficult to apply a growth rate that I would be comfortable with compared to others. Going through the first 10 Stock Ideas • American Express (AXP) - outside circle of competence • Bank of America (BAC) - outside circle of competence • Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) - Latest addition to the portfolio • Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) • CarMax (KMX) • Coca Cola (KO) - quick analysis • Comcast Corp (CMCSA) • Comdisco Holding (CDCO) • ConocoPhilips (COP) • Costco (COST) - analysis

BDX Spider Graph (The above graph is from an analysis of BDX which is posted at Dividend Growth Investor.) • Gross, operating and net margins steadily increasing even in recessionary environment • FCF positive for more than 10 years • Inventory turnover consistent but margins have increased. Leads to higher efficiency and profit. • ROA and ROE increasing steadily • Reduced debt • Has plenty of FCF to pay down debt rather than issue stock or seek loans • CROIC is very steady at 17%. Company makes 17c off every $1 of cash invested • FCF/sales = 12%. Converts 12c of every dollar in sales to FCF. Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: $87 Graham Stock Value: $110
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Competitor and Peer Comparison: $76

• Highest accounts receivables to date. Check whether it is due to non paying customers or more lenient terms. • No intangibles (as it should be with low to no moat companies) • No long term debt • Capex a little lower than the upper range • Latest year cash from operations included higher amount of interest from securities and cash from reduction inventory • Inventory turnover at the upper range • FCF and CROIC close to 0%

BDX Price vs Value Graph

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) Stock Value
Burlington Northern Santa Fe is a holding company and engaged primarily in the freight rail transportation business. • Impressive FCF growth previous 4 years and especially last year • High capex but latest annual result was extraordinary • lower sales and margins but improved efficiency in returns and turnover • CROIC is on the low side at 3% • Top line growth is also above average at 14% • Debt to equity ratio is above 200% which isn’t uncommon for capex heavy companies Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: $87 Graham Stock Value: $145 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $76

Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: N/A Graham Stock Value: $11 - $15 Competitor and Peer Comparison: N/A Can’t seem to get within an acceptable fair value range on CarMax. Thin margins, cyclical, inconsistent with low returns. Not quite sure how this position fits in. Definitely doesn’t look like a Buffett pick.

Coca Cola (KO) Stock Value
No introduction needed. • Price and value have been consistent • Numbers throughout the past 10 years are excellent • Previous business spider graph, fair value estimate and automated KO dcf valuation Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: $38 - $44 Graham Stock Value: $61 Competitor and Peer Comparison: Looks fairly valued

BNI Price vs Value Graph

CarMax (KMX) Stock Value
The Company is a retailer of used cars. • Increase in gross margins but decline in operating and net margin • Increased cash levels but a huge amount

KO Price & Value Graph

Comcast Corp (CMCSA) Stock Value
Comcast Corporation is a provider of cable TV, internet and phone services.

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• FCF and CROIC are close. 10.9% and 9.4% respectively. This scenario occurs when a company has matured without much growth to be expected. • Excellent margins and very stable returns in both the 2001 and 2008 recession • Not over leveraged • Plenty of FCF to cover debt • Big decrease in tangible shareholders equity since 2005 • Intangibles more than double in 2007 Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: N/A Graham Stock Value: $22 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $12.48

CDCO Ben Graham Net Net Value

ConocoPhilips (COP) Stock Value
The investment which Buffett admits he made a mistake for buying at too high a price. • First time looking at the financials but now see from the rear view mirror why Buffett announced it was a big mistake • COP lost a HUGE amount of money in 2008 • Increased debt to $27 billion • Large impairments seem to be showing up each quarter wiping out shareholders equity • Good FCF numbers except for 2008. Will normalize for dcf value below Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: $64 adjusted to normalize a terrible year Graham Stock Value: N/A Competitor and Peer Comparison: Looks to be on par with competitors In it’s current state, COP doesn’t look like a good hold.

CMCSA Graham Formula

Comdisco Holding (CDCO) Stock Value
Simply put, CDCO is a liquidation special situation. Using Ben Graham Net Net Spreadsheet, the liquidation value looks to be worth $8.38 while the current price is at $7.50. With most of the assets in cash, this would have been a pretty good liquidation play had the spread been wider. Since the company emerged from bankruptcy in 2002, it doesn’t seem like CDCO is in a hurry to sell the remaining assets. With real liquidations involving some fees, the current 11% margin of safety isn’t big enough to take a bite for an investor like myself. Ben Graham Net Net Value Estimate Net Net Working Capital value: $8.38

Costco (COST) Stock Value
An excellent analysis and description of Costco (COST), its operations and valuation by Brad of TMWTFS. • FCF isn’t as high as it used to be • Rock solid margins - proves management is on top of their game • Inventory continues to churn at a faster rate • Average CROIC but somewhat consistent Intrinsic Value Estimates DCF Stock Value: $39 Graham Stock Value: $47 looks to be the upper limit Competitor and Peer Comparison: More expensive than WMT. Should be around $37 based on competition.

Summary
Some obvious Buffett stock picks in this list while several seem to have been by other managers.
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Took quite a while to get this all together but I hope you are getting some ideas as well how I quickly look at companies to filter what I deem to be the good from the bad.

• Debt level has been the same past few years • 8c from every dollar of sales converts down to the bottom line • Good margins prove the business can make money during a hard recession • Regression of earnings compared over multiple timeframes is flat meaning that growth is coming from other than organic business. Shown by the goodwill balance which I also discussed in the previous ETN stock valuation. Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $55.06 DCF Stock Value: $76.42 Graham Stock Value: • 0% growth = $52.65 • 7% growth = $134.53 Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fairly valued

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: Part 2
By Jae Jun on August 25th, 2009

Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 Following on from the first part of Berkshire’s Stock Portfolio covering the first 10 stocks, let’s go through the next 10. With each DCF valuation and Ben Graham formula, cyclical downturns are adjusted slightly so as not to overly depress the intrinsic value, especially due to 2008. Since a stock valuation deals with what you believe the future will bring based on the past and current information, if the current year is a catastrophe which isn’t likely to be replicated year over year, it is best to adjust the values to a more “normal” situation.

Warren Buffett Stock Picks : 11-20
• Eaton Corporation (ETN) - previous stock valuation • Gannett (GCI) • General Electric (GE) • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) • Home Depot (HD) • Ingersoll-Rd Company (IR) • Iron Mountain (IRM) • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - previous stock analysis • Kraft Foods (KFT) • Lowes (LOW) ETN DCF Value Graph

Gannett Inc (GCI) Valuation
International news and information company. Owner of newspapers and news websites. • Horrific year in 2008 • Huge impairments of goodwill and PP&E • Printing equipment would also be of little value if resold • Totally contrarian investment • Declining sales since 2006 and so has earnings • Amazing CROIC management • Declining capex Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $8.17 DCF Stock Value: $30.47 @ 0% growth Graham Stock Value: despite performance. Excellent

Eaton Corporation (ETN) Valuation
The company is a diversified industrial manufacturer and operates in 4 business segments. 1. Electrical - electrical systems and components for power quality, distribution and control 2. Hydraulics - fluid power systems and services for industrial, mobile and aircraft equipment 3. Aerospace - intelligent truck drivetrain systems for safety and fuel economy 4. Automotive - automotive engine air management systems, powertrain solutions and specialty controls for performance, fuel economy and safety. • Looking back at my previous ETN stock analysis, looks like my assumptions were over conservative. • CROIC has been amazing past 10 years. Management is doing a great job of using its cash. • Plenty of FCF

• Business operations can generate FCF

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• 0% growth = $33.21 Competitor and Peer Comparison: Print and media industry shunned by The Street and looks undervalued.

Competitor and Peer Comparison: $32

GSK DCF Valuation GCI Ben Graham Spreadsheet

Home Depot (HD) Valuation
Home improvement retailer. • Struggled with the housing bust • Low growth • Slowed down opening new stores dramatically if you look at capex further • Plenty of FCF • Average CROIC, FCF/Sales, Revenue growth, earning growth Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $27.03 DCF Stock Value: $27.23 @ default 5% FCF growth Graham Stock Value: $26.39 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $25

General Electric (GE) Valuation
Diversified company doing business in basically everything. • Plenty of cash from all of its operations • High debt ratio and increasing past 2-3 years • Average CROIC of 3% • FCF/Sales is pretty good at 8% • Stable inventory turnover in line with past 10 years • Maybe a good company but not great Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $14.20 DCF Stock Value: $15.64 @ 5% FCF growth Graham Stock Value: • 0% growth = $43.89 @ 8% EPS growth Competitor and Peer Comparison: $18.75

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Valuation
Pharmaceutical company with principal products include medicines in the therapeutic areas, oncology and emesis (vomiting). • Lots of FCF but slow growth • Excellent CROIC above 30%. Able to make returns of over 30% from their use of cash. • Pharma companies also are able to drop the sales figures directly to the FCF line • High margins and returns as expected from drug companies • Big drop is tangible shareholders equity due to goodwill fr0m acquisition activity Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $39.44 DCF Stock Value: $43.79 @ default 6.5% FCF growth Graham Stock Value: $30 - $60 depending on pipeline HD DCF valuation

Ingersoll-Rd Company (IR) Valuation
Operates in four segments: 1. Air Conditioning Systems and Services 2. Climate Control Technologies 3. Industrial Technologies 4. Security Technologies • Big increase in goodwill in 2008
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• FCF positive yet erratic at times. Median of 11% FCF growth • Excellent CROIC. Buffett sure does a good job of picking effective management at the helm • Consistency in ROA and ROE when looking at multiple timeframes • Revenue growth on the low side Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $30.94 DCF Stock Value: $20 @ default 11% FCF growth adjusted Graham Stock Value: $51.30 Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fair to slight premium

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Valuation
Good to excellent everything as I mentioned in the JNJ analysis. Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $61.28 DCF Stock Value: $70.27. Not much different than the $71 I got last time. Graham Stock Value: $109.84 compared to $108 previously. Competitor and Peer Comparison: Fairly valued compared to competitors

JNJ DCF Valuation

Kraft Foods (KFT) Valuation
IR DCF stock value

Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) Valuation
Provides information protection and storage services. • Lost more FCF than it made throughout the past 10 years • None or very low FCF growth, CROIC, returns • Steady increase in sales but can’t convert it to FCF • Doesn’t look like a Buffett pick at all Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $29.39 DCF Stock Value: N/A Graham Stock Value: $20.79 @ 13% growth rate Competitor and Peer Comparison: $13.40

Manufactures and sells packaged food products, including snacks, beverages, cheese, convenient meals and various packaged grocery products. • Margins decreasing for more than 7 years straight • Inventory turnover has been improving • No FCF growth • Makes 22c of every $1 invested (CROIC=22%) • Growth is minimal • Increasing debt Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $28.40 DCF Stock Value: N/A Graham Stock Value: $19.96 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $24

IRM Graham Formula
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Lowe’s (LOW) Valuation
Another home improvement retailer. Buffett hasn’t backed down from buying the number 1 and 2 company in an industry. He doesn’t believe that you should only buy one company from an industry for portfolio diversification purposes. • Better growth opportunity that Home Depot • Good FCF growth but CROIC is very low at 2%. Better than nothing but not effective with utilizing capital. • Good revenue and earnings growth • Gross margins increasing to date • Debt down to average levels • Tangible book value increasing • ROE and ROA declining past 2 years • Sales flat since 2007 • The macro idea that people will continue to repair and improve houses still doesn’t work well in a recession. • If I had to choose LOW or HD, I would go for LOW. Or be like Buffett and get both. Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $20.72 DCF Stock Value: $18.91 Graham Stock Value: $52.66 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $22

Warren Buffett Stock Holdings : 21-30
• M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) - outside circle of competence • Moody’s (MCO) - - outside circle of competence • NRG Energy (NRG) • Nalco Holding (NLC) • Nike (NKE) • Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) • Procter & Gamble (PG) • Sanofi Aventis (SNY) • Sun Trusts Banks Inc. (STI) - outside circle of competence • Torchmark Corp (TMK) - outside circle of competence

NRG Energy (NRG)
Wholesale power generation company. Owns more than 189 active operating generation units at 48 power generation plants. • Had a big year in 2008 • Big margins increase in 2008 and since 2005 • Increase in short term and long term debt • Company is able to make money but its returns are ont he low side. • Mean ROA and CROIC of 2.7% and 5% respectively. Lower than competition • FCF isn’t consistent. • Huge increase in capex in 2008 • Large amount of taxes deferred. • Still converts 12% of sales into FCF Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $27.76 DCF Stock Value: $37.11 Graham Stock Value: $34 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $58

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: Part 3
By Jae Jun on August 31st, 2009

Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 We are now up to the second half of valuing the holdings of Berkshire Hathaway via the DCF valuation method, Ben Graham formula as outlined in the Intelligent Investor, and a simple multiples valuation based on PE, cash flow, sales and other metrics compared to the competition and industry. Of the 10 companies I go through in this post, I’ll be passing on Moody’s, M&T Bank, Sun Trusts Banks and Torchmark as I do not know how to value financial stocks.

Nalco Holding (NLC)
Provider of integrated water treatment applications to prevent corrosion, contamination and the buildup of harmful deposits. • Needs to improve efficiency. 40+% margins but negative net income or low single digits at best isn’t good • Decrease in intangibles suggests bad acquisitions and mistakes by management • Long term debt is steady • Been buying back stock • FCF isn’t reliable. Lots of cash come from “other” income

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• Low returns, cash and earnings growth • Doesn’t look like something Buffett would buy Intrinsic Value Estimate Numbers aren’t reliable enough for a proper valuation. Current Price: $17.52 DCF Stock Value: N/A Graham Stock Value: N/A Competitor and Peer Comparison: $22

• Debt can be handled with FCF rather than taking on additional debt Intrinsic Value Estimate FCF growth is at 22.8% but if you look at how the value of the company has tracked the share price over the past 5-7 years, the company has been growing at the rate of its CROIC. i.e. the cash returns of its invested capital. Current Price: $46.91 DCF Stock Value: $61 Graham Stock Value: $120 - high value due to excellent earnings growth Competitor and Peer Comparison: $54

Nike (NKE)
Sells athletic footwear, apparel and sports products. • Great company, leader, innovator, huge moat • Drop in margins in 2008 but increased inventory turnover • Low debt with plenty of cash • Can pay off debt with FCF easily • Don’t have to go in detail with numbers. They are just too good. Intrinsic Value Estimate Stability and predictability makes it easy to value. Current Price: $56.18 DCF Stock Value: $65 Graham Stock Value: $77 Competitor and Peer Comparison: fairly valued at $56 (trades at a premium to competition)

NSC Intrinsic Value

Procter & Gamble (PG)
Sells consumer good that you use everyday. • Wrote about PG briefly in the Best Stocks to retire list • FCF growth above 18% • CROIC at 60%! Mindblowing. • Only negative is big drops in tangible shareholders equity • Stable margins. Net margins even increased in 2008 • Good stable dividend Intrinsic Value Estimate Included a 10 year version of the intrinsic value graph to show how price and value end up meeting.

NKE Intrinsic Value Graph

Current Price: $53.19 DCF Stock Value: $76 - increased from my previous DCF valuation Graham Stock Value: $97 - slightly down from previous Graham calculation Competitor and Peer Comparison: $67

Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)
Rail company. Another rail company in the portfolio along with Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI). • Looks to be a better company than BNI • Good top line growth • Decrease in gross profit but managed to increase net margins • Lots of FCF and excellent FCF growth • Low end for CROIC at 4%

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Up till now, I’ve taken a look at the holdings of Buffett, valued each one according to my methods based on free cash flow and DCF valuation, Benjamin Graham’s formula and a simple multiples method. In this final section of Buffett’s 2009 stock picks, I’ll go through what I know, pass on the usual financials i.e. US Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Wesco Financial, and then summarize all 41 picks and their valuations again. Regarding Wesco, I remember vaguely reading in Munger’s book, Poor Charlie’s Almanack, that he doesn’t expect much appreciation in the stock. So if Munger says that about his own company, then that’s enough for me to believe him and move on to better value stock opportunities.

PG Intrinsic Value

Sanofi Aventis (SNY)
Pharmaceutical company. • Stats look good but some metrics are quite erratic • FCF growth is up and down • Top line isn’t so consistent • FCF and earnings growth is relatively low • Has outstanding returns and converts it to plenty of FCF • Debt is not an issue • Maybe MRK or PFE would be better? Intrinsic Value Estimate Not quite sure about what future products the company has but from the current snapshot of the company, I get the following figures. Current Price: $34.53 DCF Stock Value: $47 Graham Stock Value: $18 Competitor and Peer Comparison: $36

Warren Buffett’s Stock Picks: 31-41
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) - Outside circle of competence • USG Corporation (USG) • Union Pacific Corp (UNP) • United Parcel Service (UPS) • United Health (UNH) • Wabco Holdings (WBC) - Not enough data • Wal-Mart (WMT) • Washington Post (WPO) • Wells Fargo (WFC) - Outside circle of competence • Wellpoint (WLP) • Wesco Financial Corp (WSC) - Outside circle of competence

USG Corporation (USG)
Makes and sells building materials. • Rose with the housing market. Dropped with the housing market. • The capex numbers show in hindsight how USG had high capex at the peak of the housing bubble. • Been losing a lot of cold hard cash in the process - FCF • Tiny gross profits from good revenue • Turnover back down to 10.9 compared to 12.2 from the previous year • Even if I ignore 2008 numbers and imagine looking at the company in 2006 or 2007, numbers still aren’t great. Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $14.70 No reliable data or numbers to calculate intrinsic value. Only thing I can say with certainty is that the tangible book value is at $14.14. Throw it on the pass pile.

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: Part 4
By Jae Jun on September 10th, 2009

Union Pacific Corp (UNP)
Another rail company. Buffett sure likes his train sets. • Good tangible book value growth. Shows that growth is organic.
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Warren Buffett Stocks: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4

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• Top line growth is impressive. Median of 33% in the past 5 years. • CROIC is just below 2%. Only makes 2c off every $1 of cash invested. • FCF growth isn’t much to consider unless you compare it to capex. • Seems like earnings and FCF is realized 3 years after the capex outlay. • Consistent reduction in debt. • Rising margins since 2004 to highest levels. • NSC still looks to be the better company. Intrinsic Value Estimate Numbers aren’t reliable enough for a proper valuation. Current Price: $62.25 DCF Stock Value: $54.81 @ 14% growth, 15% discount rate. Graham Stock Value: $95.40 Competitor and Peer Comparison: Looks fairly valued

Competitor and Peer Comparison: overpriced. Should be around $35-$40

United Health (UNH)
Healthcare company. A previous holding of mine until August. • Healthcare is a great industry for cash flows. • Highly profitable business but has a lot of economic factors involved • Universal healthcare is just uncertainty which provides a better deal for investors • Outstanding FCF, CROIC and profitability return numbers • Huge drop in tangible shareholders equity • Try looking at the smaller healthcare companies. Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $28.40 DCF Stock Value: $61 @ 15% FCF growth and 9% discount rate Graham Stock Value: $64 @ 9% growth

United Parcel Service (UPS)
Courier company. Delivers packages. • Huge moat. • Stock price affected by high oil price. • Reducing capex past 2 years. How will it affect future results? • Past 5 years hasn’t been great for UPS. Went no where. • Good stable CROIC at 11% • Earnings YOY isn’t good. Shows a decline. • Margins are good but there are huge overhead costs as expected. 75+% gross margin but only 6-9% net margin. • Big rise in debt • Still better than FDX Intrinsic Value Estimate Stability and predictability makes it easy to value. Current Price: $55.43 DCF Stock Value: $52.72 @ 15% growth and 9% discount rate Graham Stock Value: $85 - $90 @ 13% growth

Competitor and Peer Comparison: $40

Wal-Mart (WMT)
King of retail. • FCF doubled compared to past year. Highest its ever been. • No change in margins. WMT doesn’t need to lower margins. • Highest inventory turnover rate ever in 10 years at 8.9 (although COST has better turnover) • Tangible book value consistently up.
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• Good top line and bottom line growth. • Rock solid. Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $51.11 DCF Stock Value: $57 @ 13% growth and 9% discount rate Graham Stock Value: $70 @ 9% EPS growth Competitor and Peer Comparison: $60

Wellpoint (WLP)
Healthcare company. • Again, Buffett likes to buy in pairs. • Much like UNH. Great cash flow, great numbers. • By the numbers, I prefer UNH. • Dependent on macro factors.

Washington Post (WPO)
Newspaper, media company. • Media has been one of the worst industries in the past year. Especially with everyone believing that newspapers will become extinct. • Fiscal 2008 saw a big decline in everything. Sales, profit, cash, book value, ROE, ROA • Management still used its cash effectively with a CROIC of 12.2% • FCF positive with stable capex. • Capital expenditures have been steady for 4-5 years now. • Tells me that most of the current $280mil in capex is due to maintenance rather than growth. Intrinsic Value Estimate Not very certain about the growth of the print business so I’ll keep things conservative. Current Price: $435.45 DCF Stock Value: Normalized FCF back to a reasonable $200 million as this is what the company has been able to achieve for the past 10 years. • $293 @ 0% growth and 9% discount rate • $358 @ 5% growth and 9% discount rate Graham Stock Value: • $240 @ 0% growth • $492 @ 5% growth Competitor and Peer Comparison: N/A Industry and competitors have all fared horribly to be able to provide any reliable valuation. Seems like GCI is the better pick in terms of value.

Intrinsic Value Estimate Current Price: $52.84 DCF Stock Value: $86.91 @ 13% growth and 9% discount rate Graham Stock Value: $118 @ 10% EPS growth Competitor and Peer Comparison: $64-$70

Warren Buffett’s Stock Portfolio Analysis
You view all comments and intrinsic value estimates of all 41 stocks in the pdf below. Warren Buffett Stock Portfolio Analysis and Valuation

Disclosure
No positions in any stock mentioned

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