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Tests of Hypotheses

8.2 a. b. is the probability of rejecting a null hypothesis when it is true. If the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability that the alternative hypothesis is not correct is . By rejecting H 0 , there is evidence to support H a , but we cannot absolutely prove H a . If + = 1, then = 1 = 1 P(Fail to reject H 0 | H 0 false) = P(reject H 0 | H 0 true). But we know = P(Reject H 0 | H 0 true). However, it is true that as increases, decreases and as decreases, increases.

c.

8.4

a.

= P ( y 8 if p = .2) = 1 P ( y 7) = 1

p( y) = 1 .968 = .032

y =0

( P ( y 7) is found using Table 2, Appendix B, with n = 20 and p = .2) b. = probability of rejecting H 0 when H 0 is true = P ( y 5 if p = .2) = 1 P ( y 4) = 1

p( y) = 1 .630 = .370

y =0

( P ( y 4) is found using Table 2, Appendix B, with n = 20 and p = .2) c. = probability of failing to reject H 0 when it is false = P ( y 7 if p = .5) =

p( y) = .132

y =0

( P ( y 7) is found using Table 2, Appendix B, with n = 20 and p = .5) d. = probability of failing to reject H 0 when it is false = P ( y 4 if p = .5) =

p( y) = .006

y =0

( P ( y 4) is found using Table 2, Appendix B, with n = 20 and p = .5) e. To minimize the probability of a Type I error, the rejection region y 8 is more desirable because it has a smaller value of . To minimize the probability of a Type II error, the rejection region y 5 is more desirable because it has a smaller value of .

Tests of Hypotheses

161

f.

p( y) p( y) = .990

y =0 y =0

a 1

a 1

p( y) = .990 a 1 = 8 a = 9

y =0

p( y) = 1 .596 = .404

y =0

p( y) = 1 .005 = .995

y =0

( P ( y 8) is found using Table 2, Appendix, B, with n = 20 and p = .7) 8.8 From Exercise 8.7,

( y ) 1 i =1 L( ) = e 2 n

n 2

/2

L ( 0 ) ) L(

= y, Since 0 = 0 and

( y 0) / 2 n 1 n n y2 / 2 e i=1 y 2 / 2 ( y y )2 / 2 L( 0 ) 2 e i=1 = = = ( y y )2 / 2 = e i=1 e i=1 n ) n ( y y )2 / 2 L( e 1 i =1 e 2 n

2

n

=e

y2 / 2

i =1

n 2 y1 ny 2 / 2 i =1

=e

y 2 / 2 y12 / 2

i =1

i =1

e ny

/2

= e ny

/2

= e n ( y )

/2

162

Chapter 8

8.10

To determine if the egg hatching rate for a certain species of frog exceeds .5 when the eggs are exposed to ultraviolet radiation, we test:

H 0 : p = .5 H a : p > .5

8.12 We define the following parameters: p = true proportion of sevens occurring when two dice are rolled. Since we are interested in testing whether this proportion differs from 1/6, we test:

H 0 : p = 1/ 6 H a : p 1/ 6

8.14 To determine if the mean amount of raidium-226 in soil in a Florida county exceeds 4pCi/L, we test: H 0: = 4 Ha: > 4 8.16 a. Let = mean surface roughness of coated interior pipe used in oil fields. To determine if this mean differs from 2 micrometers, we test: H 0: = 2 Ha: 2 b. Summary calculations yield the following:

Variable ROUGHNESS N 20 Mean 1.8810 SD 0.5239

The rejection region for the small sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in both tails of the t distribution. From Table 7 in Appendix B, t.025 = 2.093 with df = n 1 = 20 1 = 19. The rejection region is z > 2.093. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region, H0 cannot be rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean surface roughness of coated interior pipe used in oil fields differs from 2 micrometers. Both the confidence interval and test of hypothesis procedure give us information as to where the value of the population mean is located. Both the confidence interval of Exercise 7.24 and this test of hypothesis used a reliability level of 95%. They give similar results.

d.

e.

Tests of Hypotheses

163

8.18

To determine if the mean alkalinity level of water in the tributary exceeds 50 mpl, we test: H0: = 50 Ha: > 50 The test statistic is z = y 0

The rejection region requires = .01 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z > 2.33. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 12.36 > 2.33), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the mean alkalinity level of water in the tributary exceeds 50 mpl at = .01. 8.20 We test: H 0: = 4 Ha: < 4

y 0 2.413 4 = = 3.889 s / n 2.081/ 26

The small sample one-tailed rejection region requires = .10 in the upper tail of the t distribution with df = n = 1 = 26 1 = 25. From Table 7, Appendix B, t.10 = 1.316. The rejection region is t < 1.316. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 3.889 < 1.316) H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean amount of radium226 in the soil is less than 4 pCi/L. 8.22 To determine if the true mean cyanide level in soil in The Netherlands is less than 100 mg/kg, we test: H 0 : = 100 H a : < 100 The test statistic is z = y 0 84 100 = = 1.70 s / n 80 / 72

The rejection region requires = .10 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.10 = 1.28. The rejection region is z < 1.28. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 1.70 < 1.28), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the true mean cyanide level in soil in The Netherlands is less than 100 mg/kg.

164

Chapter 8

8.24

a.

Since it is desired to determine if the mean breaking strength is more than 2500 pounds per linear foot, we test the hypotheses:

The rejection region for a small-sample, one-tailed test requires = .10 in the upper tail of the t distribution with df = n 1 = 7 1 = 6. Table 7, Appendix B, gives t.10 = 1.440 with 6 df. The rejection region is t > 1.440.

y=

y = 18,000 = 2571.429

n 7

s2 =

( y)

n 1 n

46,365, 200

s = 13, 247.619 = 115.098 The test statistic is t = y 0 2571.429 2500 71.429 = = = 1.64 43.503 115.098 / 7 s/ n

Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 1.64 > 1.440), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean breaking strength is greater than 2500 pounds per linear foot at = .10. Yes, the pipe meets specifications. b. In terms of y : s 115.098 y0 = 0 + t = 2,500 + 1.440 = 2,567.66 6 n The rejection region in terms of y is y > 2,567.66

To find this probability, find z when a = 2,575.

z= y a 2,567.66 2,575 = = 0.156 s n 115.098 6

Thus, = P (t < 0.156) , with df = n 1 = 6 1 = 5. From Table 7 in Appendix B, > .10. The power of the test is 1 Power > .90

Tests of Hypotheses

165

c.

In terms of y : s 115.098 y0 = 0 + t = 2,500 + 1.440 = 2,567.66 6 n The rejection region in terms of y is y > 2,567.66

To find this probability, find z when a = 2,800.

z= y a 2,567.66 2,800 = = 4.945 115.098 6 s n

Thus, = P (t < 4.945) , with df = n 1 = 6 1 = 5. From Table 7 in Appendix B, .001 < < .005. d. 8.26 The power of the test is 1 .995 < Power < .999

The p-values associated with each test statistic are found in Table 5, Appendix B. a. b. c. d.

p-value = P ( z > 1.96) = .5 P (0 z 1.96) = .5 .4750 = .0250 p-value = P ( z > 1.645) = .5 P(0 z 1.645) = .5 .4500 = .05 p-value = P ( z > 2.67) = .5 P (0 z 2.67) = .5 .4962 = .0038 p-value = P ( z > 1.25) = .5 P (0 z 1.25) = .5 .3944 = .1056

8.28

p-value = P(z > 4.03) + P(z > 4.03) = 2P(z > 4.03) 2(.0000) = 0

8.30

a.

p-value = P(z > 5.471) 0

b.

p-value = P(z > 12.36) 0

c.

p-value = P(z < 2.33) = .5 - .4901 = .0099.

d.

For the one-tailed test of Exercise 8.20, t = 3.889 with 25 degrees of freedom.

p-value = P(t < 3.889) < .0005

166

Chapter 8

e.

For the one-tailed test of Exercise 8.21, t = 1.39 with 4 degrees of freedom.

p-value = P(t < 1.39) > .10

8.32

a.

Let 1 = mean quality performance rating of competitive R&D contracts and 2 = mean quality performance rating for sole source R&D contracts. Since we wish to determine if the mean rating for the competitive contracts exceeds the mean rating for the sole source contracts, we test:

H 0 : 1 2 = 0 H a : 1 2 > 0

b.

The rejection region for the large-sample, one-tailed test requires = .05 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. Since = .05 > p-value, we would reject H 0 . There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean rating for competitive contracts exceeds the mean rating for sole source contracts at = .05.

c.

8.34

The p-value for the test is p = .0054. At = .01, H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the mean voltage readings of the two locations differ. This is the same conclusion that we arrived at using the confidence interval procedure of Exercise 7.40.

8.36

Let 1 = mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group and let 2 = mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF group. To compare the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the two groups, we test:

H 0 : 1 2 = 0 H a : 1 2 0

The rejection region for the small sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .10/2 = .05 in both tails of the t distribution with df = n1 + n2 2 = 24 + 24 2 = 46. From Table 7, Appendix B, t.05 1.684. The rejection region is t > 1.684 or t < 1.684. Assuming the population variances are equal, we find the pooled variance.

2 sp = 2 (n1 1) s12 + ( n2 1) s2 (24 1)(.492 ) + (24 1)(.382 ) = = 0.19225 n1 + n2 2 (24 + 24 2)

( y1 y2 ) D0

2 sp

n1

2 sp

n2

Tests of Hypotheses

167

Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 0.0790 > / 1.684), H 0 is rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the two groups differ. 8.38 a. The statistical method appropriate for testing a difference in mean times between the stacked and non-stacked menu displays is the independent samples comparison of means test of hypothesis. There are three necessary assumptions: 1) 2) 3) c. Both samples must be randomly and independently selected. Both population of times must have approximate normal distributions. The population variances for the stacked and non-stacked times must be equal.

b.

Knowing only the sample means is not enough information to compare population means. We also need sample standard deviations and sample sizes to make inferences about population means. Testing at any > .10 results in the fail to reject H 0 conclusion. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean time required differs for the stacked and non-stacked menu displays. To determine if the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group will significantly increase between the first and third meetings, we test: H 0 : 3 1 = 0 H a : 3 1 > 0

d.

8.40

a.

b.

The data should be analyzed as matched pairs since all the participants in the study are going to be measured twice, once after the first meeting and again after the third meeting. The differences for the pairs of scores should be analyzed when comparing the population means. The p-value for the test is p = .003. At = .01, H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group increased between the first and third meetings. To determine if the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF group will significantly change between the first and third meetings, we test: H 0 : 3 1 = 0 H a : 3 1 0

c.

d.

e.

The p-value for the test is p = .70. At = .01, H 0 cannot be rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF changed between the first and third meetings.

168

Chapter 8

8.42

a.

To determine if the Huffman coding method will yield a smaller mean compression ratio than the standard method, we test: H 0: S H = 0 H a : S H > 0 Summary information yields the following for the differences: d = 0.13 and sd = 0.1393 . The test statistic is t = d D0 0.13 0 = = 3.095 . sd n 0.1393 11

The rejection region requires = .05 in the upper tail of the t distribution with df = n 1 = 11 1 = 10. From Table 7 in Appendix B, t.05 = 1.812. The rejection region is t > 1.812. Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (z = 3.095 > 1.812), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the Huffman coding method will yield a smaller mean compression ratio than the standard method. b. 8.44 These results do agree with the confidence interval conclusions reached in Exercise 7.46.

In order to compare means, we first must find the mean and standard deviation of the sample differences.

Task Human Scheduler Automated Method Difference 1 185.4 180.4 5.0 2 146.3 248.5 102.2 3 174.4 185.5 11.1 4 184.9 216.4 31.5 5 240.0 269.3 29.3 6 253.8 249.6 4.2 7 238.8 282.0 43.2 8 263.5 315.9 52.4

d=

d = 260.5 = 32.56

n 8

2 sd =

( d )

n 1 n

17073.43

(260.5) 2 8 = 1227.27 8 1

2 sd = sd = 1227.27 = 35.03

To determine if a difference exists between the mean throughput rates of human and automated methods, we test:

Tests of Hypotheses 169

The rejection region requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in both tails of the t distribution with df = n 1 = 8 1 = 7. From Table 7, Appendix B, t.05 = 2.365. The rejection region is t > 2.365 or t < 2.365. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 2.629 < 2.365), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean throughput rates differ between human and automated schedulers. 8.46

Frog A B C D Difference 23.2 26.6 18.2 14.0

(23.2) + ( 26.6) + (18.2) + (14.0) 82 = = 20.5 4 4

d=

2 sd =

(82) 2 4 = 30.68

H 0 : d = 0 H a : d < 0

Our rejection region for = .05 in the one-tailed test is found by placing = .05 in the lefthand tail of the t distribution with n 1 = 3 df, P(t < t0 ) = .05. Using Table 7, we find t0 = 2.353 and our rejection region is t < 2.353. Our test statistic is t = d D0 20.5 0 = = 7.40 sd / n 5.54 4

At = .05, reject H 0 and conclude the mean level of TCDD in ovaries of female frogs exceeds the mean level of TCDD in the liver. 8.48 a.

y 7 = = .043 . n 163

170

Chapter 8

b.

To determine if the proportion of unauthorized uses of business websites in 2001 that came from inside the company has changed since 1999, we test: H0: p = .07 Ha: p .07

c.

p0 p p0 q0 n

d. e.

The rejection region requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < 1.96 or z > 1.96. First, check to see if the normal approximation will be adequate: p0 3 p p0 3 pq .07(.93) pq p0 3 0 0 .07 3 .07 .060 (.010, .130) 163 n n

Since the interval is completely in the interval (0, 1), the normal approximation will be adequate. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 1.80 < / 1.96), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the proportion of unauthorized uses of business websites in 2001 that came from inside the company has changed since 1999 at = .05. f. The p-value is: p = P ( z 1.80) + P ( z 1.80) = (.5 .4641) + (.5 .4641) = .0359 + .0359 = .0718 Since the p-value is greater than (p = .0718 > .05), H0 is not rejected. This is the same conclusion as in part e. 8.50 Let p = true mortality rate for adult rice weevils exposed to nitrogen. To determine if this percentage exceeds 99%, we test: H 0 : p = .99 H a : p > .99 The rejection region for the large sample, lower-tailed test requires = .10 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5 in Appendix B, z.01 = 1.282. The rejection region is z > 1.282. We first find = p y 31,386 = = .998886 n 31,386 + 35

Tests of Hypotheses

171

Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (z = 15.83 > 1.282), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the true mortality rate for adult rice weevils exposed to nitrogen exceeds 99%. 8.52 Let p = proportion of engineering Ph.D. degrees awarded to foreign nationals. Our sample 1,630 = estimate is p = .7287 2, 237 To determine if the true proportion of engineering Ph.D. degrees awarded to foreign nationals exceeds .5, we test:

H 0 : p = .5 H a : p > .5

The test statistic is z = p0 .7287 .5 p = = 21.63 .5(.5) p0 q0 2, 237 n

The p-value for the test is p = P ( z > .21.63) 0 . Using = .01 > p-value, we reject H 0 . There is sufficient evidence to indicate the proportion of engineering Ph.D. degrees awarded to foreign nationals exceeds .5. 8.54

For the Top of the Core:

p0 q0 (.5)(.5) .5 .164 (.336, .664) .5 3 n 84

Since the interval falls completely in the interval (0, 1), the normal distribution will be adequate.

= p y 64 = .762 = n 84

To determine if the coat index exceeds .5, we test: H0: p = .5 Ha: p > .5 The test statistic is z =

p0 p p0 q0 n = .762 .5 .5(.5) 84 = 4.80

172

Chapter 8

The rejection region requires = .05 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 4.80 > 1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the coat index exceeds .5 at = .05.

For the Middle of the Core:

p0 q0 (.5)(.5) .5 3 .5 .176 (.324, .676) n 73

Since the interval falls completely in the interval (0, 1), the normal distribution will be adequate. = p y 35 = = .479 n 73

To determine if the coat index differs from .5, we test: H0: p = .5 Ha: p .5 The test statistic is z = p0 p p0 q0 n = .479 .5 .5(.5) 73 = .36

The rejection region requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < 1.96 or z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = .36 < / 1.96), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the coat index differs from .5 at = .05.

For the Bottom of the Core:

p0 q0 (.5)(.5) .5 3 .5 .167 (.333, .667) n 81

Since the interval falls completely in the interval (0, 1), the normal distribution will be adequate. = p y 29 = = .358 n 81

To determine if the coat index is less than .5, we test: H0: p = .5 Ha: p < .5 Tests of Hypotheses 173

p0 p p0 q0 n

.358 .5 .5(.5) 81

= 2.56

The rejection region requires = .05 in the lower tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 2.56 < 1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the coat index is less than .5 at = .05. 8.56 a. Let p1 = proportion of public wells with a detectable level of MTBE and let p2 = proportion of private wells with a detectable level of MTBE. To determine if the proportion of public and private well with a detectable level of MTBE differs, we test: H 0 : p1 p2 = 0 H a : p1 p2 0 1 = We first find p 22 48 + 22 y1 48 y = 1 = 1 = = .3139 . = = .40 , p = .2136 , and p 120 + 103 n1 120 n1 103 1 p 2 ) D0 (p 1 1 + pq n1 n2 = (.40 .2136) 0 1 1 .3139(.6861) + 120 103 = 2.99

The rejection region for the large sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in both tails of the z distribution. From Table 5 in Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < 1.96 of z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (z = 2.99 > 1.96), H 0 is rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of public and private well with a detectable level of MTBE differs. b. 8.58 a. Both techniques compare the two population proportions. Since they both were analyzed using the 95% reliability level, the results will be the same. Let p1 = proportion of caisson structures that are inactive and let p2 = proportion of well protector structures that are inactive. To determine if the proportion of caisson structures that are inactive exceeds the proportion of well protector structures that are inactive, we test: H 0 : p1 p2 = 0 H a : p1 p2 > 0

174

Chapter 8

The rejection region for the large sample, two-tailed test requires = .10 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5 in Appendix B, z.10 = 1.282. The rejection region is z >1.282. 1 = We first find p 598 177 598 + 177 2 = = = .5431, p = .4403, p = .5156 1,101 402 1,101 + 402 1 p 2 ) D0 (p 1 1 + pq n1 n2 = (.5431 .4403) 0 1 1 .5156(.4844) + 1,101 402 = 3.53

Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (z = 3.53 > 1.282), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of caisson structures that are inactive exceeds the proportion of well protector structures that are inactive. b. Let p1 = proportion of caisson structures that are inactive and let p2 = proportion of fixed platform structures that are inactive. To determine if the proportion of caisson structures that are inactive exceeds the proportion of fixed platform structures that are inactive, we test: H 0 : p1 p2 = 0 H a : p1 p2 > 0 The rejection region for the large sample, two-tailed test requires = .10 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5 in Appendix B, z.10 = 1.282. The rejection region is z > 1.282. 1 = We first find p 598 450 598 + 450 2 = = = .5431, p = .2372, p = .3496 1,101 1,897 1,101 + 1,897

1 p 2 ) D0 (p

1 1 + pq n1 n2

= 16.93

Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (z = 16.93 > 1.282), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of caisson structures that are inactive exceeds the proportion of fixed platform structures that are inactive. c. Let p1 = proportion of well protector structures that are inactive and let p2 = proportion of fixed platform structures that are inactive. To determine if the proportion of well protector structures that are inactive differs from the proportion of fixed platform structures that are inactive, we test: H 0 : p1 p2 = 0 H a : p1 p2 0

Tests of Hypotheses

175

The rejection region for the large sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .10/2 = .05 in both tails of the z distribution. From Table 5 in Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < 1.645 or z > 1.645. 1 = We first find p 177 450 177 + 450 2 = = = .4403, p = .2372, p = .2727 402 1,897 402 + 1,897 1 p 2 ) D0 (p

1 1 + pq n1 n2 =

= 8.30

Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (z = 8.30 > 1.645), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of well protector structures that are inactive differs from the proportion of fixed platform structures that are inactive. 8.60 Let p1 = the hatching rate of the sun-shaded eggs and p2 = the hatching rate of the unshaded eggs. To determine a difference in these proportions, we test:

H 0 : p1 p2 = 0 H a : p1 p2 0

The test statistic is z = 1 p 2 ) D0 (p

1 1 + pq n1 n2

where

1 = p

34 31 2 = = .4857, p = .3875 70 80

= p

= 1.21

z=

The rejection region requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in both tails of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z > 1.96 or z < 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 1.21 > / 1.96), H 0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the hatching rates of the sun-shaded and unshaded eggs differ.

176

Chapter 8

8.62

Let p1 = proportion of passive solar-heated homes that required less than 200 gallons of oil in fuel consumption last year and p2 = proportion of solar-heated homes that required less than 200 gallons of oil in fuel consumption last year. Since it is desired to determine if there is a difference between the proportions, we test: H 0 : p1 p2 = 0 H a : p1 p2 0 The sample proportions are: 1 = p 2 = p = p 37 1 = 1 p 1 = 1 .74 = .26 = .74, q 50 46 1 = 1 p 1 = 1 .92 = .08 = .92 , q 50

( 37 + 46 ) = .83, ( 50 + 50 )

= 1 p = 1 .83 = .17 q

(.74 .92) 0 1 1 .83(.17) + 50 50

.18 = 2.40 .075

1 p 2 ) D0 (p

1 1 + pq n1 n2

The rejection region for a large-sample, two-tailed test with = .02 requires P ( z < z / 2 ) + P ( z > z / 2 ) = .02 P (0 < z < z / 2 ) = .5 .02 / 2 = .5 .01 = .4900 From Table 5, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z < 2.33 or z > 2.33. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 2.40 < 2.33), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate a difference between the proportions ( p1 p2 0) at = .02.

1 2 In order for the above test to be valid, p or 1.

1 2 p 1q 1 p .74(1 .74) .74 2 .74 .124 (.616, .864) n1 50

2 2 p

Tests of Hypotheses

177

8.64

Let 2 = variance of drill chip lengths. H 0 : = 75 H 0 : 2 = 752 H a : = 75 H a : 2 752 The test statistic is 2 (n 1) s 2

2 0

2 2 2 The rejection region for the two-tailed test is 2 > / 2 or < 1 / 2 where df = n 1 = 50 2 2 1 = 49. From Table 8, Appendix B, with /2 = .05/2 = .025, .025 71.4202 and .975 =

32.3574. The rejection region is 2 > 71.4202 or 2 < 32.3574. Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region ( 2 = 21.95 < 32.3574), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the standard deviation of the drill chip lengths differ from 75 mm. 8.66 Let 2 = variance of the effluent turbidity in water specimens disinfected by the preammoniation method. H 0 : 2 = .0016 H a : 2 > .0016 The test statistic is 2 = (n 1) s 2 = (44 1)(.16) 2 1.1008 = = 688 .0016 .0016

The rejection region for a one-tailed test requires = .01 to be in the upper tail of the 2 distribution with df = n 1 = 44 1 = 43.

2 From Table 8, Appendix B, .01 63.6907. The rejection region is 2 > 63.6907 .

Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region ( 2 = 688 > 63.6907), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the variance exceeds .0016 at = .01. 8.68 Let 2 = variance of the PCB readings.

s2 =

( y)

n 1 n

248.71

178

Chapter 8

To determine if the variance of the PCB readings is less than .1, we test: H 0 : 2 = .1 H a : 2 < .1 The test statistic is 2 = ( n 1) s 2 = (7 1).0495 .297 = = 2.97 .1 .1

The rejection region for a one-tailed test requires = .05 in the upper tail of the 2 2 distribution with df = n 1 = 7 1 = 6. From Table 8, Appendix B, .05 = 12.5916. The rejection region is 2 > 12.5916. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region ( 2 = 2.97 > / 12.5916), H 0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variance of the PCB readings is less than .1 at = .05. 8.70 a.

2 Let 12 = the equality of heat rate variance for traditional gas turbines and 2 = the equality of heat rate variance for aeroderivative augmented gas turbines. To determine if there is a difference in the variation of the two gas turbine types, we test:

H 0: Ha:

12 =1 2 2 12 1 2 2

Larger sample variance 2,651.92 = = 4.297 Smaller sample variance 1, 279.32

The rejection region for two-tailed test requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F distribution with numerator df = n1 1 = 7 1 = 6 and denominator df = n2 1 = 39 1 = 38. From Table 11 in Appendix B, F.025 2.74. The rejection region is F > 2.74. Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (F = 4.279 > 2.74), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the variation of the two gas turbine types. This result casts doubt on the inferences made in Exercise 8.33. The requirement of equal population variances is not supported by this test.

Tests of Hypotheses

179

b.

2 = the Let 12 = the equality of heat rate variance for advanced gas turbines and 2 equality of heat rate variance for aeroderivative augmented gas turbines. To determine if there is a difference in the variation of the two gas turbine types, we test:

H 0: Ha:

12 =1 2 2 12 1 2 2

Larger sample variance 2,651.92 = = 17.250 Smaller sample variance 638.512

The rejection region for two-tailed test requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F distribution with numerator df = n1 1 = 7 1 = 6 and denominator df = n2 1 = 21 1 = 20. From Table 11 in Appendix B, F.025 = 3.13. The rejection region is F > 3.13. Since the observed value of the test statistic does fall in the rejection region (F = 17.25 > 3.13), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the variation of the two gas turbine types. This result casts doubt on the inferences made in Exercise 8.33. The requirement of equal population variances is not supported by this test. 8.72

2 = variance of the three wet sampler Let 12 = variance of the one wet sampler readings and 2 readings.

To determine if the variation in hydrogen readings for the two sampling schemes differ, we test:

2 2 H 0 : 12 / 2 = 1 12 = 2

2 H a : 12 / 2 1

( (

2 1

2 2

) )

Larger sample variance s12 6.32 = 2= = 5.871 Smaller sample variance s2 2.62

The rejection region for a two-tailed test with = .05 requires: P ( F > F / 2 ) = .025 with 1 = n1 1 = 365 1 = 364 and 2 = n2 1 = 365 1 = 364 From Table 11, Appendix B, F.025 1.00. The rejection region is F > 1.00.

180

Chapter 8

Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 5.871 > 1.00), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the variations in hydrogen readings for the two sampling schemes differ at = .05. 8.74

2 Let 12 = population variance of the TOC levels at Bedford and 2 = population variance of the TOC levels at Foxcote.

Since it is desired to see if the TOC levels have a greater variation at Foxcote, we test:

2 2 H 0 : 12 / 2 = 1 12 = 2

2 H a : 12 / 2 <1 2 1 2 < 2

( (

) )

Larger sample variance s12 1.27 2 1.6129 = 2= = = 1.75 Smaller sample variance s2 .9216 .962

The rejection region for a one-tailed test with = .05 requires: P ( F > F ) = .05 with 1 = n1 1 = 52 1 = 51 and 2 = n2 1 = 61 1 = 60 From Table 10, Appendix B, F.05 1.53. The rejection region is F > 1.53. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 1.75 > 1.53), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the TOC levels at Foxcote have greater variation than those at Bedford at = .05. 8.76 From the hint, Larger sample variance > F / 2 P Smaller sample variance s2 s2 > F / 2 = P 12 > F / 2 or 2 2 s1 s2 = P = s12 2 s2 + > F / 2 +

2 s2 s12

> F / 2

(because

2 s12 s2 cannot both be and 2 s2 s12 greater than F / 2 at the same time)

2 =

Tests of Hypotheses

181

8.82

p( x ) = h ( ) =

(n ) x e n x!

e /

g ( x ) ~ p ( x ) h ( ) (n ) e x! ~ e

x n

e /

x ( n +1/ )

* = x + 1 * = /(n + 1)

Reject H0 if P( > 0) > P( 0) using g ( x) distn. 8.84 Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are:

Descriptive Statistics: Species

Variable Species Variable Species Region Dry Steppe Gobi Desert Region Dry Steppe Gobi Desert N 5 6 N* 0 0 Mean 14.00 11.83 SE Mean 9.53 7.44 StDev 21.31 18.21 Minimum 3.00 4.00 Q1 3.00 4.00 Median 5.00 4.50

Q3 29.50 16.00

Let 1 = average number of ant species found in the Dry Steppe and 2 = average number of ant species found in the Gobi Desert. s2 p =

2 (n1 1) s12 + (n2 1) s2 (5 1)21.312 + (6 1)18.212 = = 386.0539 n1 + n2 2 5+62

To determine if there is a difference in the average number of ant species found at sites in the two regions, we test: H0: 1 = 2 Ha: 1 2 The test statistic is t = ( y1 y2 ) Do 1 1 s + n1 n2

2 p

= 0.18

The rejection region requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 2 = 5 + 6 2 = 9. From Table 7, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.262. The rejection region is t < 2.262 or t > 2.262.

182

Chapter 8

Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 0.18 > / 2.262), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the average number of ant species found at sites in the two regions at = .05. 8.86 a. Let p1 = proportion of female students who switched due to loss of interest in SME and p2 = proportion of male students who switched due to lack of interest in SME. Some preliminary calculations are: 1 = p y1 74 = = .43; n1 172 2 = p y2 72 = = .44; n2 163 3 = p y1 + y2 74 + 72 = = .436 n1 + n2 172 + 163

To determine if the proportion of female students who switch due to lack of interest in SME differs from the proportion of males who switch due to a lack of interest, we test: H0: p1 p2 = 0 Ha: p1 p2 0 The test statistic is z =

1 p 2) 0 (p 1 1 q p n + n 2 1 = (.43 .44) 0 1 1 + .436(.564) 172 163 = 0.18

The rejection region requires /2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < 1.645 or z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 0.18 < / 1.645), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the proportion of female students who switch due to lack of interest in SME differs from the proportion of males who switch due to a lack of interest in SME at = .10. b. Let p1 = proportion of female students who switched due to low grades in SME and p2 = proportion of male students who switched due to low grades in SME. Some preliminary calculations are:

1 = p y1 33 = = .19; n1 172 2 = p y2 44 = = .27 n2 163

For confidence coefficient .90, = .10 and /2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The confidence interval is: 1 p 2 ) z.05 (p 1q 1 p q .19(.81) .27(.73) p + + 2 2 (.19 .27) 1.645 172 163 n1 n2 .08 .075 (.155, .005) We are 90% confident that the difference between the proportions of female and male switchers who lost confidence due to low grades in SME is between .155 and .005. Since the interval does not include 0, there is evidence to indicate the proportion of female switchers due to low grades is less than the proportion of male switchers due to low grades.

Tests of Hypotheses

183

8.88

2 = population variance of Let 12 = population variance of the readings of instrument 1 and 2 the readings of instrument 2.

2 2 H 0 : 12 / 2 = 1 12 = 2

Ha: / < 1

2 1 2 2

( (

=

2 1

<

2 2

) )

s12 =

y12

( y )

1

n1 1

n1

4209

(145) 2 5 = 4 =1 5 1 4 (150) 2 5 = 40 = 10 5 1 4

2 s2 =

2 y2

( y )

2

n2 1

n2

4540

The rejection region for a one-tailed test with = .05 requires: P ( F > F ) = .05 with 1 = n2 1 = 5 1 = 4 and 2 = n1 1 = 5 1 = 4 From Table 10, Appendix B, F.05 6.39. The rejection region is F > 6.39. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 10 > 6.39), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate instrument 2 is less precise than

2 instrument 1 12 < 2 at = .05.

8.90

Let 1 = experimental mean ultimate torsion moment and 2 = theoretical mean ultimate torsion moment. Since it is desired to determine if the means differ, we test:

H 0 : 1 2 = 0 H a : 1 2 0

184

Chapter 8

Difference T-Beam (Exper. Theor.) 1 .07 2 .55 3 .20 4 .20 5 .68 6 1.18

d=

d = 2.08 = .3467

n 6

2 sd =

d2

( d )

n 1 n

2.2422

sd = .3042 = .5515 The test statistic is t = d D0 .3467 0 .3467 = = = 1.54 sd / n .5515 6 .2251

The rejection region for a small-sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t distribution with df = n 1 = 6 1 = 5. From Table 7, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.571 with 5 df. The rejection region is t < 2.571 and t > 2.571. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 1.54 < / 2.571, H is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate 2.571 and t = 1.54 > / 0 the experimental mean and theoretical mean differ at = .05. 8.92 Let p = proportion of healthy, non-pregnant women who become uncomfortably hot when their core temperature reaches 40C. Since we want to see if the true proportion of healthy, non-pregnant women who become uncomfortably hot when their core temperature reaches 40C is less than .75, we test:

= p 11 = .46 24

Tests of Hypotheses

185

The rejection region for a large sample, one-tailed test with = .10 requires P ( z < z ) = .10 P ( z < z < 0) = .5 .10 = .4000 From Table 5, Appendix B, z.10 = 1.28. The rejection region is z < 1.28. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 3.28 < 1.28), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the true proportion of healthy, nonpregnant women who become uncomfortably hot when their core temperature reaches 40C is less than .75 at = .10. 2 In order for the above test to be valid, p pq must not contain 0 or 1. n

.46 2

The interval does not contain 0 or 1, so the above test is valid. 8.94 Since it is desired to determine if the new process is more variable than the old and the variance of the old process was .00156, we test: H 0 : 2 = .00156 H a : 2 > .00156 The test statistic is 2 = ( n 1) s 2 = (100 1)(.00211) .20889 = = 133.90 .00156 .00156

The rejection region for a one-tailed test requires = .05 in the upper tail of the 2 2 distribution with df = n 1 = 100 1 = 99. From Table 8, Appendix B, .05 124.342. The rejection region is 2 > 124.342 . Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region ( 2 = 113.90 > 124.342), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the variance for the new process is larger than the old at = .05. 8.96 a. Since it is desired to determine if the true mean inbreeding coefficient for this species of wasp exceeds 0, we test: H 0: = 0 Ha: > 0

186

Chapter 8

The rejection region for a large-sample, one-tailed test requires = .05 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table 5, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. The test statistic is z = y 0 .044 0 = = .699 s / n .884 / 197

Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = .699 > / 1.645), H 0 cannot be rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean inbreeding coefficient exceeds 0 at = .05. b. The confidence interval, from Exercise 7.98 is (.06, .148). Since the interval contains the value 0, we would make the same inference of fail to reject H 0 . Let 1 = mean experimental vapor pressure and 2 = mean calculated vapor pressure. Since it is desired to determine if the mean difference differs from 0, we test: H 0 : 1 2 = 0 H a : 1 2 0

Difference Temperature Exper. Calcul. 100.60 .006 101.36 .007 104.60 .015 106.44 .014 108.70 .022 110.96 .008 112.62 .000 115.21 .002 116.69 .026 119.38 .029 121.08 .008 123.61 .000 124.90 .010 127.74 .010 130.24 .010 131.75 .010

8.98

a.

d=

d = .011 = .0006875

n 16

2 sd =

d2

( d )

n 1 n

.003039

Tests of Hypotheses

187

sd = .000202096 = .01422 The test statistic is t = d D0 .0006875 0 .0006875 = = = .193 sd / n .01422 / 16 .003555

The rejection region for the small-sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t distribution with n 1 = 16 1 = 15 df. From Table 7, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.131. The rejection region is t < 2.131 and t > 2.131. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = .193 < / 2.131 and t = .193 > / 2.131, H 0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean difference differs from 0 at = .05. b. p-value = P (t .193) + P (t .193) = 2 P (t .193) 2 P(t .193) > 2 P(t 1.341) p-value > 2(.10) p-value > .20 This result indicates that the probability of observing a t value at least as contradictory to H 0 as the one observed in part a (if H 0 is in fact true) is greater than .20. We would therefore fail to reject H 0 for any preselected value of less than .20. 8.100 Let 1 = mean milk yield of cows that are given access to shade and 2 = mean milk yield of cows that are not given access to shade. Since it is desired to determine if there is a difference in the mean milk yields, we test:

H 0 : 1 2 = 0 H a : 1 2 0

2 2 Assume s12 = s2 = sp = 402 = 1600

( y1 y2 ) D0 1 2 1 sp + n n 1 2

The rejection region for a small-sample, two-tailed test requires /2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the t distribution with df = n1 + n2 2 = 16 + 15 2 = 29 . From Table 7, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.699. The rejection region is t < 1.699 or t > 1.699. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 2.55 > 1.699), H 0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate a difference between the mean milk yields at = .10.

188

Chapter 8

8.102

Let 1 = mean day-long clear-sky solar radiation level in St. Joseph, MO, and 2 = mean daylong clear-sky solar radiation level in Iowa Great Lakes. To determine if the mean radiation levels differ, we test: H 0 : 1 2 = 0 H a : 1 2 0 Using a matched pairs analysis, the printout gives us the test statistic of t = 11.765 and the p-value of .0001. For any > .0001, we can reject H 0 . So, for = .001, we have sufficient evidence to indicate the mean day-long clear-sky solar radiation level at the two sites differ.

Tests of Hypotheses

189

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