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Warming Bad

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***Science Debate***

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Warming Real – Generic
Warming real - consensus Brooks 12 - Staff writer, KQED news (Jon, staff writer, KQED news, citing Craig Miller, environmental scientist, 5/3/12,
"Is Climate Change Real? For the Thousandth Time, Yes," KQED News, http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2012/05/03/isclimate-change-real-for-the-thousandth-time-yes/) BROOKS: So what are the organizations that say climate change is real ? MILLER: Virtually ever major, credible scientific organization in the world. It’s not just the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Organizations like the National Academy of Sciences, the American Geophysical Union, the American Association for the Advancement of Science. And that's echoed in most countries around the world. All of the most credible, most prestigious scientific organizations accept the fundamental findings of the IPCC. The last comprehensive report from the IPCC, based on research, came out in 2007. And at that time, they said in this report, which is known as AR-4, that there is "very high confidence" that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. Scientists are very careful, unusually careful, about how they put things. But then they say "very likely," or "very high confidence," they’re talking 90%. BROOKS: So it’s not 100%? MILLER: In the realm of science; there’s virtually never 100% certainty about anything . You know, as someone once pointed out, gravity is a theory. BROOKS: Gravity is testable, though... Virtually every major credible scientific organization in the world says climate change is real. MILLER: You're right. You can’t drop a couple of balls off of the Leaning Tower of Pisa to prove climate change. That’s
why we have to rely on mathematical models to try to figure out where this is all going. And that's difficult. But it’s not impossible, as some people like to paint it. You know, the people doing the models are not inept. Over the past nearly four years, Climate Watch has interviewed a lot of scientists, attended conferences, read academic papers. To me, as what you might call an informed observer, the vast preponderance of scientific evidence supports this notion that the Earth is warming and that human activity is a significant cause. BROOKS: Are there legitimate debunkers of this proposition? MILLER: Certainly there

are legitimate scientists on the other side of the question. If you take, for example, a guy by the name of John Christy from the University of Alabama, who is very strongly
identified with climate change skeptics. That doesn’t mean that his work is invalidated. He came out recently with a study that basically refuted the idea that there’s been an observable shrinkage in the snow pack of the Sierra Nevada. And we talked to other scientists who do believe in anthropogenic or human-induced global warming and do believe that the Sierra snow pack is going to be shrinking, who thought that this study was sound. But that’s one study in a sea of studies. And you

have look at the preponderance of the evidence and not at any one particular study, not any particular year, not even any particular ten years, because even a 10-year trend does not necessarily constitute climate change. BROOKS: What are some of the metrics scientists have looked at to come to the conclusion that human-caused climate change is real? MILLER: They study temperature records. There have been tidal gauges in place for a long time, looking at sea-level rise, and also augmented now by satellite data that measure with greater accuracy the rate of the rise. They’ve looked at things like ice cores from Greenland and elsewhere which gives us sort of a reverse chronological story of what the climate has done. And you can actually pull one of those ice cores and see the amount of C02 that was in the atmosphere at the time. And what they've found is what looks to be a pretty convincing relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the behavior of the Earth’s climate. BROOKS: But
there are some who refute that evidence? MILLER: Absolutely. We’ll get people frequently commenting on our blog who will say the sea level is not rising and that there’s been no warming for the past ten years. As I already pointed out, ten

years of anything does not constitute a definitive pattern; it’s just too short a time span. It’s this idea of cherry-picking data, which both sides accuse the other of doing. You have to look at the Earth’s climate over time as a really big, complicated jigsaw puzzle. And clearly there are pieces missing. And there are pieces sitting off to the side that aren’t missing, but we don’t quite know how they fit into the puzzle yet. But still, you see enough of the picture to know what’s going on. The science has yielded at least -- as Stanford's Chris Field of the IPCC puts it -- a blurry picture of the future. And the blurry
picture is enough to know the general direction we’re heading, even without knowing all of the specifics. BROOKS: Are there former critics who now acknowledge the reality of climate change? MILLER: Richard Muller would be a good example of that. He’s the physicist over at UC Berkeley who was identified with the skeptic camp for a long time. He wasn’t buying a lot of climate change theory. He launched a temperature-data audit because he wasn’t convinced that the temperature data being used by the IPCC and NOAA and others was accurate, that there were fundamental issues – they were getting bad data, garbage in, garbage out.

Warming now-Laundry list Venkataramanan and smitha ‘11(Department of Economics, D.G. Vaishnav College, Chennai, India Indian Journal
of Science “Causes and effects of global warming p.226-229 March 2011 http://www.indjst.org/archive/vol.4.issue.3/mar11-pages159-265.pdf KG) Increasing global temperatures are causing a broad range of changes. Sea levels are rising due to thermal expansion of the ocean, in addition to melting of land ice. Amounts and patterns of precipitation are changing. The total annual power of hurricanes has already increased markedly since 1975 because their average intensity and average duration have increased (in addition, there has been a high correlation of hurricane power with tropical sea-surface temperature). Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns increase the frequency, duration, and intensity of other extreme weather events,

Gonzaga Debate Institute 4 Warming Core such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and tornadoes. Other effects of global warming include higher or lower agricultural yields, further glacial retreat, reduced summer stream flows, species extinctions. As a further effect of global warming, diseases like malaria are returning into areas where they have been extinguished earlier. Although global warming
is affecting the number and magnitude of these events, it is difficult to connect specific events to global warming. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming

is expected to continue past then because carbon dioxide (chemical symbol CO2) has an estimated atmospheric lifetime of 50 to 200 years.

Warming extremely high and increasing—current action is key to solving Malcolm, University of Toronto, 2k (Jay Malcolm 9/2000 http://wwf.panda.org/?2143/Speed-KillsRates-of-Climate-Change-are-Threatening PB)
Boston, US: Global

warming represents a rapidly worsening threat to the world's wildlife and natural habitat . The increase of global temperatures seen in the late 20th century was unprecedented in the last 1,000 years. Professor Tom Crowley of Texas A&M University predicts that in the 21st century "the warming will reach truly extraordinary levels" surpassing anything in the last 400,000 years.¶ New research by the conservation organization WWF indicates that the speed with which global warming occurs is critically
important for wildlife, and that the accelerating rates of warming we can expect in the coming decades are likely to put large numbers of species at risk.¶ Species in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where the warming will be greatest, may have to migrate. Plants may need to move 10 times faster than they did at the end of the last ice-age. Very few plant species can move at rates faster than one kilometer per year, and yet this is what will be required in many parts of the world.¶ The worst affected countries are likely to be Canada and Russia, where the computer models suggest that, on average, migration rates in excess of one kilometer per year will be required in a third or more of terrestrial habitats. High migration rates will particularly threaten rare, isolated or slow-moving species but will favour weeds and pests that can move, reproduce or adapt fast. The kudzu vine and Japanese honeysuckle are examples of nuisance plants in the US that will likely benefit from global warming.¶ Conditions today make it far harder for species to move to new habitat than it was thousands of years ago. The last time the climate warmed anywhere near as fast as it is predicted to do this century, was 13,000 years ago when sabre-toothed tigers and wooly mammoths still roamed the earth and humans had just begun to populate the Americas.¶ At that time the whole of human society probably numbered in the tens of millions and all were hunter gatherers. Farming and cities did not yet exist. Now,

the human population has swelled to six billion and vast swathes of habitat across the globe have been lost to urban development and agriculture. Any plant or animal that needs to move must contend with roads,
cities and farms.¶ The WWF study shows that human barriers to climate-induced migration will have the worst impact along the northern edges of developed zones in central and northwestern Russia, Finland and central Canada.¶ Large-scale range shifts will have a major effect on biodiversity if species are unable to move to find suitable conditions. For example, Mexico has the highest diversity of reptiles in the world because of its ancient, isolated desert habitats. However, several species, including the threatened desert tortoise may not be able to keep pace with the warming climate. In Africa, the nyala is vulnerable to expected habitat change in Malawi's Lengwe National Park, and scientists have predicted that South Africa's red lark could lose its entire remaining habitat.¶ Reports of ecosystem changes due to recent global warming are already coming in from many parts of the world. Costa Rica's golden toad may be extinct because of its inability to adapt to climate changes; birds such as the great tit in Scotland and the Mexican jay in Arizona are beginning to breed earlier in the year; butterflies are shifting their ranges northwards throughout Europe; alpine plants are moving to higher altitudes in Austria; and mammals in many parts of the Arctic - including polar bears, walrus and caribou - are beginning to feel the impacts of reduced sea ice and warming tundra habitat.¶ A

doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere has the potential to eventually destroy at least a third of the world's existing terrestrial habitats, with no certainty that they will be
replaced by equally diverse or productive ecosystems, or that similar ecosystems will establish elsewhere. Unfortunately, some projections for global greenhouse gas emissions suggest that CO2

will not only double from pre-industrial levels during the 21st Century but may in fact triple if action is not taken to rein in the inefficient use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil for energy production.¶ Amongst the countries likely to lose 45 per cent or more of current habitat are Russia, Canada, Kyrgyzstan, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Uruguay, Bhutan and Mongolia. Bhutan and Mongolia in particular are havens for extraordinary wildlife riches to which climate change represents an alarming new threat.¶ Local species loss may be as high as 20 per cent in the most vulnerable arctic and mountain ecosystems.
Fragmented habitats in highly sensitive regions including northern Canada, parts of eastern Siberia, Russia's Taimyr Peninsula, northern Alaska, northern Scandinavia, the Tibetan plateau, and southeastern Australia may be most at risk.¶ Individual mountain species that may be under threat from global warming in isolated mountain habitats include the rare Gelada baboon of Ethiopia, the Andean spectacled bear, central America's resplendent quetzal, the mountain pygmy possum of Australia and the monarch butterfly at its Mexican wintering grounds. Many coastal and island species will be at risk from the combined threat of warming oceans, sea-level rise and range shifts, all of which can add significantly to existing human pressures.¶ As can be seen from these examples, and the growing body of science, an alarm is sounding.

The rate of global warming may be a critical determinant in the future of the global biodiversity and we cannot afford to wait to reduce greenhouse gases. Urgent action is necessary to prevent the rate of change reaching a level that will be catastrophic for nature and which may bring about irreversible losses of our world's natural treasures.¶

about the time that humans began to engage in very large-scale agriculture and industry (see figure). and nitrous oxide concentrations were stable for thousands of years.e. positively. which is based on the peer reviewed literature. Lacis.)WZ A good example of how the ‘consensus’ process confuses people — especially the anti-science crowd. this guy is mainstream. Lacis had commented on the Fourth Assessment. *Executive Summary+ summarizes Ch 9. not a sceptic.org/2010/06/16/scientific-consensuson-global-warming-climate-science/. and changes in precipitation patterns at different latitudes on the Earth.” After pointing out the IPCC authors’ response. solar intensity or airborne particles) to observed climate change patterns using global climate models. This technique has detected human-induced trends in a wide variety of climate variables including land surface warming. This is a consensus?” Then Lacis explained exactly what he meant on DotEarth: Human-induced warming of the climate system is established fact…. the most important human-produced GHG. Editor of Climate Progress. “Simply Astonishing. they began to rise like a rocket around 200 years ago. volcanoes). CO2. keeping GHG concentrations from rising even more. And The bottom line is that CO2 is absolutely. Top How do we know greenhouse gases are increasing because of human activity? Some greenhouse gases (GHG).e.cfm) A more detailed. such as industrial halocarbons. Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. “Remember. For CO2. which gloms onto any apparent disagreement among scientists as evidence against the ‘consensus’ — can be found in two Dot Earth posts on “Andrew A. only the human contributions are increasing. Second. When they add them up. Senior Fellow at the American Progress.” WattsUp wrote. “Disputing the “consensus” on global warming. burning fossil fuels) because the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere is decreasing in direct proportion to the rise in CO2.” WattsUpWithThat got all hot cool and bothered. writing.org/global-warmingbasics/faq_s/glance_faq_science. scientists and economists have developed estimates of all the natural and human GHG sources. greenhouse gases. and without question.successor to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. and not something to be labeled as “very likely” at the 90 percent probability level.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 5 Warming Real – Anthropogenic Warming is real and anthropogenic C2ES 11 (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions . the NASA climatologist whose 2005 critique of the United Nations climate panel was embraced by bloggers seeking to cast doubt on human-driven climate change” (Part I and Part II). former Acting Assistant Secretary of Energy for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. all of these independent lines of evidence leave no doubt that GHG concentrations are increasing because of human activities. the amount of human-made GHG in the budget are more than enough to explain the rise in concentrations.” http://climateprogress. methane. My earlier criticism had been that the IPCC AR4 report was equivocating in not stating clearly and forcefully enough that human-induced warming of the climate system is established fact.e. state-of-the-art attribution of various climate trends is possible using optimal fingerprinting approaches that match individual forcings (for example. Romm 10 (Jon. For naturally occurring GHG. are only made by humans. loss of Arctic sea ice cover. vertical warming of the oceans." http://www. ancient trees that became coal and oil) rather than a geological source (i. scientists can tell from chemical measurements of the atmosphere that the additional CO2 is from: combustion (i. and recently named the world’s top environmental think tank.c2es. Together. and thus their presence in the atmosphere can only be explained by human activity. Suddenly. a prehistoric (fossil) source because the amount of radioactive carbon in the atmosphere has been decreasing over the past century. which means that natural processes are absorbing the excess amount. In fact. several independent lines of evidence make it crystal clear that they are increasing because of human activities: First. “There is no scientific merit to be found in the Executive Summary. from plants (i. the single most important greenhouse gas in the . Observations of global land and ocean surface warming and warming of all continents except Antarctica show that no combination of forcings that excludes manmade greenhouse gases can explain the warming trend of the past half-century (see figure). Global Warming is real and anthropogenic – multiple warrants. “Rejected. "Science FAQs.

they do not wait for proof. economists. I disagree with people who say “the science is settled. Joe. one would assume he is equally skeptical of flossing. for that matter. least-common denominator piece of wishywashiness that understates our scientific understanding. a bunch of non-prominent scientists who aren’t climate experts. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to write its reports.Gonzaga Debate Institute 6 Warming Core atmosphere. I’ve met lots of people like CNBC anchor Joe Kernen. who recently put out a list of more than 400 names of supposedly “prominent scientists” who supposedly “recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming. gnawing little humans” could possibly change the climate in “70 years. How sad that the WSJ and CNBC have so little conception of what science really is. That’s how you become famous and remembered by history. Doh! He thought the IPCC ‘consensus’ was some watered down. Or. the press and politicians: Simply come up with as long a list as you can of scientists who dispute the theory.S. and getting more so every year as the scientific community learns more about the catastrophic consequences of uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions. Senate. Failure to control atmospheric CO2 is a bad way to run a business. many if not most people probably hear “consensus of opinion.” But that’s where the agreement ends. What matters is scientific findings — data. but scientific theory supported by observations overturned that flawed worldview. Newton. (Note to WSJ: One reason science works is that a lot of scientists devote their whole lives to overturning whatever is the current hypothesis — if it can be overturned. Fortunately Kernen wasn’t around when scientists were warning that puny little humans were destroying the Earth’s protective ozone layer. not opinions. Consensus of opinion is also dismissed as groupthink. . And that brings me to my Salon piece. Many devote their professional lives to seeking evidence for hypotheses. R-Okla. environmentalists and media are making a serious mistake by using the word “consensus” to describe the shared understanding scientists have about the ever-worsening impacts that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are having on this planet. Science is in many respects the exact opposite of decision by consensus. and. So we end up with the absurd but pointless spectacle of the leading denier in the U. thesis at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography on physical oceanography in the Greenland Sea. containing the opinions of TV weathermen. Galileo. James Inhofe. If that’s what Jenkins thinks science is. Less surprising is the readiness of many prominent journalists to embrace the role of enforcer of an orthodoxy simply because it is the orthodoxy.” which can — and often is — dismissed out of hand. and a surefire ticket to climatic disaster. it is more like 250 years. a consensus apparently suffices as proof of itself.” Well. The big difference I have with the doubters is they believe the IPCC reports seriously overstate the impact of human emissions on the climate. which it is. science doesn’t work by consensus of opinion. much worse unless we act soon. my opinion — even though I researched a Ph. perhaps surprisingly. the list is both padded and laughable. General opinion at one point might have been that the sun goes around the Earth. such disagreement is prima facie proof that no consensus of opinion exists. For them. as counterintuitive as it may seem.” As it turned out. Like them. When scientists and others say there is a consensus. Consensus of opinion is irrelevant to science because reality is often counterintuitive — just try studying quantum mechanics. even a number of people who actually believe in the consensus. But I do think the scientific community.D. One of the most serious results of the overuse of the term “consensus” in the public discussion of global warming is that it creates a simple strategy for doubters to confuse the public. they’ve chosen to believe. I am skeptical of the so-called consensus on climate science as reflected in the IPCC reports. of the Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote: What if the heads being counted to certify an alleged consensus” arrived at their positions by counting heads?It may seem strange that scientists would participate in such a phenomenon. The science isn’t settled — it’s unsettling.) In fact.. Like them. but yes. or that time was an absolute quantity. antibiotics and even boarding an airplane. It acts very much like a control knob that determines the overall strength of the Earth’s greenhouse effect. After all.N. Jenkins Jr. But in any case. whereas the actual observed climate data clearly show the reports dramatically understate the impact. puny little humans are doing it. most of the damage to date was done in the last 70 years. and yes. which I excerpt below: The more I write about global warming. In a December article ignorantly titled “The Science of Gore’s Nobel: What If Everyone Believes in Global Warmism Only Because Everyone Believes in Global Warmism?” Holman W. the progressive community. Darwin and Einstein. especially since scientific advances drive so much of the economy. especially well-funded hypotheses. It shouldn’t. Scientists are human. and it’s going to get much. like Copernicus. the more I realize I share some things in common with the doubters and deniers who populate the blogosphere and the conservative movement. Otherwise we might never have banned chlorofluorocarbons in time. nothing could be more irrelevant to climate science than the opinion of people on the list such as Weather Channel founder John Coleman or famed inventor Ray Kurzweil (who actually does “think global warming is real”). Like them. I am dubious about the process used by the U. who simply can’t believe that “as old as the planet is” that “puny.

people hear the second meaning: “consensus” as majority opinion. led by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. That brings us to another problem with the word “consensus. Since it is increasingly obvious that the climate is changing and the planet is warming. atmospheric temperature rise. the IPCC’s definitive treatment of the subject. the remaining deniers have coalesced to defend their Alamo — that human emissions aren’t the cause of recent climate change and therefore that reducing those emissions is pointless.” Scientists have come to understand that “forcings” (natural and human-made) explain most of the changes in our climate and temperature both in recent decades and over the past millions of years. confirming what earlier computer models had shown about warming. Opinions are irrelevant. In fact. “ There can no longer be genuine doubt that human-made gases are the dominant cause of observed warming . This is. but is well simulated by two anthropogenically [human-caused] forced climate models. The scientific consensus most people are familiar with is the IPCC’s “Summary for Policymakers” reports. So China. this is “minority rules.Gonzaga Debate Institute 7 Warming Core The IPCC relies on the peer-reviewed scientific literature for its conclusions. The deniers call this “politicized science. arctic ice melt.” Many. For instance. the evidence is amazingly strong. if not most. “There is still zero empirical evidence that anthropogenic production of CO2 is making any measurable contribution to the world’s present warming trend. This conclusion takes into account … the possibility that the response to solar forcing could be underestimated by climate models. Government representatives participate in a line-by-line review and revision of these summaries. with a vertical structure that varies widely by ocean. Such studies are also done for many other observations: land-based temperature rise. expansion of the tropics (desertification) and changes in precipitation. hundreds of studies in the case of this article. Studies compare every testable prediction from climate change theory and models (and suggested by paleoclimate research) to actual observations. the deniers’ favorite topic. The primary human-made forcings are the heat-trapping greenhouse gases we generate. The natural forcings include fluctuations in the intensity of sunlight (which can increase or decrease warming). How many studies? Well. Over and over again. Moreover. The greenhouse fearmongers rely entirely on unverified. NASA’s James Hansen.” Another 2005 study.” Scientific American noted that objections by Saudi Arabia and China led the IPCC to remove a sentence stating that the impact of human greenhouse gas emissions . a conclusion robust to observational sampling and model differences. Saudi Arabia and that hotbed of denialism — the Bush administration — get to veto anything they don’t like. compared actual ocean temperature data from the surface down to hundreds of meters (in the Atlantic. But those aren’t a majority opinion. led a team of scientists that made “precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. It is what scientific research and actual observations reveal. Last year. oil and natural gas.” It can mean “unanimity” or “the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned. We conclude that it is of human origin. particularly carbon dioxide from burning coal. sea level rise. The net result is unanimous agreement on a conservative or watered-down document.” has 11 full pages of references. And the science behind human attribution has gotten much stronger in the past 2 years (see a recent literature review by the Met Office here). Pacific and Indian oceans) with climate models and concluded: A warming signal has penetrated into the world’s oceans over the past 40 years. some 500 peer-reviewed studies.” In fact. and major volcanoes that inject huge volumes of gases and aerosol particles into the stratosphere (which tend to block sunlight and cause cooling)…. it cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing. This is not a consensus of opinion. Hansen called this energy imbalance the “smoking gun” of climate change. Natural forcings alone just don’t explain what is happening to this planet. one of the nation’s top climate scientists. scientists have demonstrated that observed changes in the climate in recent decades can only be explained by taking into account the observed combination of human and natural forcings. “Understanding and Attributing Climate Change.” suggesting the process turns the IPCC summaries into some sort of unscientific exaggeration. in an article titled “Conservative Climate. if the relatively complex climate models are oversimplified in any respect. That is why I cite and link to as much research as is possible. You could argue that rather than majority rules. longtime Nation columnist Alexander Cockburn wrote. The IPCC concluded last year: “Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely (>90 percent) caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years. crudely oversimplified computer models to finger mankind’s sinful contribution. A good example of how scientific evidence drives our understanding concerns how we know that humans are the dominant cause of global warming. in April 2005.” which revealed that the Earth is absorbing far more heat than it is emitting to space. The signal is complex. which must meet the rigorous requirements of the scientific method and which are inevitably scrutinized by others seeking to disprove that work. Greeland and Antarctic ice sheet melt.” Last April. and said. the reverse is true. of course. it is by omitting amplifying feedbacks and other factors that suggest human-caused climate change will be worse than is widely realized. inland glacier melt.

models. They have analyzed the science and observations and expressed their understanding of climate science and the likely impacts we face on our current emissions path — an understanding that has grown increasingly dire in recent years (see “An illustrated guide to the latest climate science” and “An introduction to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water“).000 years. then it follows logically and incontrovertibly that a further increase in CO2 concentration will lead to further warming. aren’t buying into some sort of consensus of opinion. that is. If the preceding is accepted. and ecosystem loss. this is an extraordinarily high temperature. accumulated from thousands of independent studies.” Then I discuss the evidence we had even back in 2008 that the IPCC was underestimating key climate impacts. Concerning concentrations. Many different lines of evidence consistently show that most of the observed warming of the past fifty years was caused by human activity. the very strong evidence. even in the absence of any computer models. for comparable temperatures. other greenhouse gases and aerosols) and the computation of concentrations from the emissions.) This is based on consistent results from theory. lead author Piers Forster of the University of Leeds in England said. Warming is real and human caused – an overwhelming amount of scientific evidence Rahmstorf 8 (Stefan. has over the past decades convinced virtually every climatologist around the . This part showed that global warming is already a measured and well-established fact. The magnitude of our emissions depends on human behavior. the uncertainty range can now be narrowed somewhat to 3°C ± 1°C. not a theory. The result is the famous range of future global temperature scenarios shown in figure 3-6. in the light of new studies since the IPCC Third Assessment Report.51 It is clear that even in the more optimistic of the shown (non-mitigation) scenarios.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/Rahmstorf_Zedillo_2008. to the Pliocene. In fact. including all the major national academies of science. The bottom line is that recent observations and research make clear the planet almost certainly faces a greater and more imminent threat than is laid out in the IPCC reports. and data analysis.53 The second part of this paper examined the evidence for the current warming of the planet and discussed what is known about its causes." http://www.Gonzaga Debate Institute 8 Warming Core on the Earth’s recent warming is five times greater than that of the sun. this warming is exactly what would be expected given the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases. This could turn out to be an optimistic assumption.000 and 10. The leading scientific organizations in this country and around the world. which is very likely unprecedented in at least the past 100. the chance that these conclusions are wrong has to be considered minute. Above all. extreme events (for example. finding that this anthropogenic increase is proven beyond reasonable doubt and that a mass of evidence points to a CO2 effect on climate of 3°C ± 1. some models indicate the possibility of a positive feedback. but the climatic response to various emissions scenarios can be computed from the information presented here. “The difference is really a factor of 10. a rate of only 0. hurricane activity is expected to increase in a warmer climate). my personal assessment is that.000 years. the same result would still hold based on physics and on data from climate history alone. Other gases are not discussed here. we would have to go back about 3 million years. although they are important to get quantitatively accurate results. a point I update here. global temperature would rise by 2–3°C above its preindustrial level by the end of this century. That’s why climate scientists are so desperate. Taken together. The rate of this warming (which is important for the ability of ecosystems to cope) is also highly unusual and unprecedented probably for an even longer time.pikpotsdam. As far as the data show.1°C per century. (This is the classic IPCC range. with the biosphere turning into a carbon source rather than a sink under growing climatic stress. Considering the plethora of consistent evidence. And that’s why the “consensus on global warming” is a phrase that should be forever retired from the climate debate. The last major global warming trend occurred when the last great Ice Age ended between 15. Even for a paleoclimatologist like myself.5°C global warming for a doubling of concentration.pdf) WZ This paper discussed the evidence for the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the effect of CO2 on climate. and. "Anthropogenic Climate Change: Revisiting the Facts.50 Two additional steps are involved in these computations: the consideration of anthropogenic forcings other than CO2 (for example.000 years ago: this was a warming of about 5°C over 5. CO2 is the largest and most important forcing. That’s why they keep begging for immediate action. and no viable alternative explanation for this warming has been proposed in the scientific literature.52 The expected magnitude and rate of planetary warming is highly likely to come with major risks and impacts in terms of sea level rise (Pliocene sea level was 25 –35 meters higher than now due to smaller Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets). Professor at the Postdam Institute for Climate Research. the scenarios shown basically assume that ocean and biosphere take up a similar share of our emitted CO2 as in the past.

org/resources_files/USMexico_Cooperation_Renewable_Energies. Director of the Program in International Relations (Duncan.Gonzaga Debate Institute 9 Warming Core world (many of whom were initially quite skeptical. global temperatures may raise by as much as 6%. preventing it from penetrating to the earth's surface.html) The key insight of the research is straightforward: the factors that might account for global warming—what climate scientists call "forcings"—operate in different ways. say.pdf JJ) The urgency of finding alternatives to fossil fuels has been confirmed in recent years by mounting scientific evidence that we are undergoing a noticeable anthropogenic shift in the world’s weather and temperature. That year. Santer explains. after the 1995 report was issued. the more turbulent lower layer." But if massive volcanic eruptions." Santer says of the vicious personal attacks by fossil-fuel interests. which concludes that there is a greater than 90 percent likelihood that human activities have been the main cause of warming since the middle of the twentieth century. an industry–funded group led an effort to discredit Santer personally by spuriously claiming that he had altered the IPCC's findings. and most importantly in the short term extreme weather conditions and increased incidence of natural disasters have highlighted the consequences of maintaining the status quo in our patterns of energy consumption and industrial development.000. the dust they produce can reach upper portions of Earth's atmosphere. Santer points out. But. precipitation. instead documents a telltale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere—the precise fingerprint that scientists since the 1960s had predicted would occur from the intensified "greenhouse effect" as increasing amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel emissions built up in the atmosphere. if the earth's warming were caused by an increase in the sun's energy output. including myself) that anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal. addresses changes in the height of the tropopause—the boundary between the troposphere.000. atmospheric moisture. Even with the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that is contemplated by the most ambitious mitigation strategies.S. http://www. citing Benjamin Santer. those two profiles are "not at all what the data show. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. it has now been accepted that something must be done to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. Last updated: 7/15/10. Some of Santer's more recent work. finding alternative sources of energy is a crucial component of climate change mitigation strategies. Because of his groundbreaking work." but his high-profile role in the 1995 IPCC report made him a target of those trying to stir up controversy and confuse the public about global warming. and that these fossil fuels produce 27. When such eruptions occur. He had not. and the more stable stratosphere above. Not only are a range of indicators showing that the planet is warming. a marker of the tropopause can be seen in the flat. including a MacArthur "genius grant. and many other aspects of climate change. anvil-like top of a never imagined I'd have to do that. Santer's cutting-edge research led to widespread acclaim from his colleagues and earned him many accolades.000 tons of CO2 emissions annually.statealliancepartnership. the melting of glaciers. I Fifteen years later. "You are prepared as a scientist to defend your research." Union of Concerned Scientists. It is estimated that we have experienced a 1 degree Celsius rise in global temperatures over the past 100 years and that by the end of the current century global temperatures may have risen by as much 7 or 8 degrees. This would have a dramatic and disastrous impact on both developed and developing nations and will threaten the existence of both humans and animal and plant species. now replicated by many others. "Global Warming Science and Impacts: Climate Fingerprinter. for the first time. been dramatically strengthened in the latest IPCC report. Given that 86% of all global energy comes from fossil fuels. Laundry list of indicators prove warming anthropogenic Shulman 10 (Seth Shulman. But I was not prepared to defend my personal integrity. For instance. for instance. http://www. Our understanding of climate fingerprinting has also become far more sophisticated and now shows human causation in the measured changes in ocean temperatures. the data would show cooling in the troposphere (the atmospheric layer closest to the surface) and heating in the stratosphere (the layer above the troposphere)." . the report said that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. and remain there for several years. Though the connection between man‐made greenhouse gases and global warming was denied for many years by industry and governments alike. their influence would show up with a distinctly different profile. 7/1/2013. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology." His research.ucsusa. were a significant factor.-Mexico Cooperation in Renewable Energies“. Development and Growth: U. Arctic sea ice. (Between 5 and 10 miles above the earth's surface.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/climate-scientist-benjaminsanter. Because volcanic dust absorbs incoming sunlight. of course. "Nothing in my university training prepared me for what I faced in the aftermath of that report. Santer was selected as the lead author on a chapter of the 1995 report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). the evidence that human activity is causing global warming is stronger than ever and accepted by the overwhelming majority of scientists. “Environment. but the retreat of the polar ice caps." That measured statement has. "you would expect to see warming from the top of the atmospheric column straight down to the surface. Warming is anthropogenic Wood ‘10 – Duncan Wood is Full Professor. For instance.

Human Causes. The stratosphere has cooled more because there is less ozone to absorb incoming sunlight to heat up the stratosphere.) Measurements over the course of several recent decades have shown that the tropopause has risen markedly. aerosols from volcanic activity. Santer explains. the tropopause. Known as the troposphere (from the Greek tropos. Fingerprint 3: The Surface Heats Up Measurements show that global average temperature has risen by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years. Once again. chemical. altering these one at a time in their sophisticated models. with most of that happening in the last three decades. is as high as nine miles above the equator and as low as five miles above the poles. namely that Warming is anthropogenic . scientists compared two natural drivers of climate (solar changes and volcanic aerosols) and three human drivers of climate (heat-trapping emissions. This has led to the troposphere warming more because the increase in heat-trapping emissions is trapping more of Earth's outgoing heat. Natural climate drivers include the sun's energy output." That. lower temperature and are examples of "negative" forcings or drivers. from 1950 to the present. a study shows that human-induced changes in heat-trapping emissions and ozone account for more than 80 percent of the rise in tropopause height.2] By comparing Earth's temperature over that last century with models comparing climate drivers. has arrived at the same conclusion. [10] This is yet another example of how science detectives are quantifying the impact of human activities on climate. Fingerprint 1: The Ocean Layers Warm The world's oceans have absorbed about 20 times as much heat as the atmosphere over the past half-century." All the climate "natural causes cannot provide a convincing explanation for the particular patterns of climate change we see. . "Human Fingerprints. but because of the breadth of scientific work and reproducibility of the results. both of which inject sunlight-reflecting aerosols into the atmosphere. Fingerprint 2: The Atmosphere Shifts Recent research shows that human activities have lifted the boundary of Earth's lower atmosphere. aerosol pollution. which means "turning")." fingerprinting research to date. he says. is why scientists "have come to have such confidence in our understanding of what is happening—not because of the claims of any one individual. http://www. Volcanic events and some types of human-made pollution. human emissions are the biggest factor Fitzpatrick 6 (Melanie Fitzpatrick. aerosols from pollution. this lowest layer of the atmosphere contains Earth's weather. Santer was able to show that both the warming of the lower atmosphere and cooling of the stratosphere led to a rise in the height of the tropopause—and that the observed rise in the tropopause matched the fingerprint of an increase in heat-trapping gases. both natural and human. Human Solutions times more strongly now than they were in 1950. such as increases in heat-trapping emissions from cars and power plants or an increase in the amount of radiation the sun emits. heat-trapping emissions are driving the climate about three The spatial pattern of where this warming is occurring around the globe indicates human-induced causes." Union of Concerned Scientists. "but the data showed clearly that natural causes alone simply could not provide a convincing explanation for the observed change. [7] Things that increase temperature. Over the period 1979-1999. [10] The rising tropopause marks another human fingerprint on Earth's climate. The boundary that separates the two layers. But human activities have increased heat-trapping emissions and decreased stratospheric ozone. and soot particles. and comparing model output with observations. are examples of "positive" forcings or drivers. a study showed that. In fact. and changes in snow and ice cover. In their search for clues. The stable layer above is called the stratosphere. Even accounting for the occasional short-lived cooling from volcanic events and moderate levels of cooling from aerosol pollution as well as minor fluctuations in the sun's output in the last 30 years. heattrapping emissions far outweigh any other current climate driver. These programs use our knowledge of physical.even if there are alt causes." Santer says. Human climate drivers include heat-trapping emissions from cars and power plants. Much as the Air Force develops computer programs to simulate aircraft flight under different conditions.Gonzaga Debate Institute 10 Warming Core thundercloud.500 feet below the surface. and ozone depletion). our scientific fingerprinting identifies human activities as the main driver of our warming climate. "Nobody had looked at it before. a 2003 study showed that this tropopause has shifted upward over the last two decades by more than 900 feet. [8. and biological processes that occur within Earth's atmosphere and oceans and on its land surfaces. [1. In an astounding development.9] The measured increases in water temperature lie well outside the bounds of natural climate variation. By studying tropopause changes in computer climate models.html)\ Background: Driving the Climate ("Forcing") Climate is influenced by many factors. climate scientists develop computer programs to simulate global climate changes under different conditions. leading to higher temperatures not only in surface waters but also in water 1. Earth and Space Sciences and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. Mathematical models allow scientists to simulate the behavior of complex systems such as climate and explore how these systems respond to natural and human factors. most of the warming was caused by heat-trapping emissions from human activities [3]. Both these effects combine to shift the boundary upward. Changes in the sun during the twentieth century have warmed both the troposphere and stratosphere.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/global-warming-human.ucsusa. 5/11/06.

and scientists around the world.rmbowman. The average surface temperature of the first seven years of the 1990’s is already higher than the average for the entire decade of the 1980’s (the 1980’s had previously been the warmest decade in recorded history). (Recent data indicates that it won’t hold that distinction for long — 1997 has been even hotter. Anderson of Resources for the Future (a non-profit research group with environmental leanings) agrees that surface temperatures have risen a full degree since reliable measurements began.htm) KA Naturally. and they have been documented not by alarmists. Snow cover is melting much earlier in the year. http://www.000 years. buckling highways. In 1994. Global Warming is real. sea levels have risen almost one foot. Ocean temperatures have warmed. compose conclusions which ignore actual observations. and causing other havoc. and that recent Over two thousand scientists have now concluded that global warming is already changing our climate. Permafrost in Alaska is thawing. (Little is known about the earth’s climate before that time. warming temperatures caused a 48 by 22 mile chunk to break off from the Larsen ice shelf. but by responsible. 1995 was the warmest year since humans began keeping accurate decades are the warmest since at least 1400. says.. if I didn’t think it was real. for example. unbiased scientists from NASA. acting through the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have reached consensus on the fact that Global Warming is real and is already happening. Satellites. the Natural Resource Defense Council.. and countless universities and research institutions around the world. I wouldn’t be writing this paper.) measurements of temperature. in their zeal to convince the world that the holocaust will be upon us unless we curtail our use of fossil fuels. that measure the world’s temperature so accurately that they can detect when the moon is full." J. But the polluters and their mouthpieces (like Rush Limbaugh) claim it’s just a bunch of hot air. Lt. ISSS believes that the evidence is indisputable. The reality is that the last 30 years have seen the warmest surface temperatures in recorded history. and the patterns of deep sea currents are shifting. NOAA. Cl. "Known apocalyptic global warming advocates. Average surface temperatures in Antarctica have risen two degrees Fahrenheit since 1950. most of the world’s scientists.) Scientists are documenting the rapid melting of glaciers. The ten hottest years in recorded history have all taken place since 1980! With the Sierra Club. exposing rocks that had been encased in ice for over 20. . W. “What About Global Warming?”. threatening the oil pipeline.. Dan Becker of the Sierra Club (a moderate environmental group) says. "Assertions that satellite records show no global warming are either misinformed or intentionally untrue. President of the Institute for Space and Security Studies.com/ssn/warming. ." On the other hand.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 11 AT: Bias Scientists are unbiased and mostly agree that warming is real Bowman 94+ (Robert M. find no warming whatsoever in their entire 18-year record. Fred Palmer of the Western Fuels Association (a front for coal and other corporate interests).

and the Center's Scientific Advisors are mostly retired scientists without past or current research in climate-related sciences. and debunking claims never made by serious climate scientists. There is evidence for a strong connection to the Greening Earth Society (ergo Western Fuels Association). http://www. It is not clear whether the CO2 Center is actually a separate entity from the Greening Earth Society. criticizing unscientific interpretations. VA. The GES is now chaired by Bob Norrgard. http://www. The "scientific" positions held by Center staff are not subjected to peerreview.ucsusa. coal is the best energy source we have. Their father.org/ssi/archive/climate-misinformation.html) Greening Earth Society The Greening Earth Society (GES) was founded on Earth Day 1998 by the Western Fuels Association to promote the view that increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 are good for humanity. who are also involved with the Greening Earth Society. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide & Global Change The Center claims to "disseminate factual reports and sound commentary on new developments in the world-wide scientific quest to determine the climactic and biological consequences of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content. Sylvan Wittwer Idsos don’t have a peer review – they fill their work with meaningless jargon Union of Concerned Scientists. Both used to be located at the same office suite in Arlington. EXAMPLE: The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change This pseudo-scientific research center located in Tempe. David Wojick.ucsusa. AZ. biased claims. Craig and Keith Idso. There is also little doubt that the earth has warmed slightly over the same period. Affiliated Individuals: Patrick Michaels. Both Idso brothers have been on the Western Fuels payroll at one time or another. Until December 2000. Sylvan Wittwer. and there are few who do not attribute the CO2 increase to the increase in humanity's use of fossil fuels. and that's good. skeptics also pursue the idea "if you can't beat them. Funding: The Center is extremely secretive of its funding sources. but there is no compelling reason to believe that the rise in temperature was caused by the rise in CO2. stating that it is their policy not to divulge it funders. John Daley. Furthermore it is highly unlikely that future increases in the air's CO2 content will produce any global warming. GES and Western Fuels are essentially the same organization." The authors then go on to flesh out these "problems" with scientific jargon. for there are numerous problems with the popular hypothesis that links the two phenomena." The Center is led by two brothers. 2007 (“Responding to Global Warming Skeptics—Prominent Skeptics Organizations”. Affiliated Individuals: Craig Idso. In a position paper on global warming [13].html) In an attempt to bank on the credibility science generally enjoys and to fight off accusations of making unscientific. which in turn receives its funding from its coal and utility company members. Fred Palmer chaired both institutions. "There is little doubt the air's CO2 concentration has risen significantly since the inception of the Industrial Revolution.org/global_warming/science/skeptic-organizations. the two authors (the only listed staff of the Center) state. Sallie Baliunas. another long-term Western Fuels associate. Spin: CO2 emissions are good for the planet. the Center also shares a board member (Sylvan Wittwer) with GES. is affiliated with the Greening Earth Society. .Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 12 AT: Idsos Idsos are paid off Union of Concerned Scientists. The Western Fuels Assocation (WFA) is a cooperative of coal-dependent utilities in the western states that works in part to discredit climate change science and to prevent regulations that might damage coal-related industries. 2000 (“Misinformation About Climate Science”. Sherwood Idso Funding: The Greening Earth Society receives its funding from the Western Fuels Association. Robert Balling. February. Spin: Increased levels of CO2 will help plants. Keith Idso. join them"—if only in appearance. Sherwood Idso.

Even human societies. such as storms and floods. but limited capability to adapt to climate change. Some climate related impacts are difficult to adapt to. 2006 (Nicholas.” http://www. there will always remain some residual uncertainty. due to limitations in our ¶ scientific knowledge of a highly complex climate system and the likely impacts of perturbing it. including several European cities. mangrove swamps) and will be exacerbated by ¶ existing stresses. compared to the ¶ expert ‘optimal’ adaptation strategy that is revealed only with the benefit of hindsight. “Science FAQs.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 13 AT: Adaption Adaptation isn’t sufficient – reducing emissions key Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. recently named the world’s top environmental think tank. such as a rapid onset of monsoon failure in parts of South Asia. head of the Government Economic Service and adviser to the Government on the Economics of Climate Change and Development. “Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change. there are technical limits to the ability to adapt to abrupt and large-scale ¶ climate change. CBC) An inherent difficulty for long-term adaptation decisions is uncertainty. http://webarchive. Natural ecosystems have inherent. such as regions that depend on glacier meltwater. natural systems may be unable to ¶ adapt at all. Sudden or severe ¶ impacts triggered by warming could test the adaptive limits of human systems. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. such as pollution. coral reefs.gov.cfm. particularly developing countries. ¶ There are clear limits to adaptation in natural ecosystems. different regions and sectors will differ in their ability to adapt. 2011 (June 2011. Effective adaptation will¶ involve decisions that are robust to a range of plausible climate futures and are flexible so they can be¶ modified relatively easily. while lack of water will undermine people’s ability to survive in a particular ¶ area. ¶ But even for human society.g. CBC) However. and could result ¶ in the abandonment of some highly populated coastal regions.pdf. 413.” p. Uncertainty and limitation on tech prevent short-term adaptation Stern. By investing in the reduction of greenhouse gases. extreme weather events. are not easily ameliorated by adaptation measures. For example. Rising sea levels will severely challenge the¶ survival of low-lying countries and regions such as the Maldives or the Pacific Islands.nationalarchives.c2es. Poor countries and poor populations within rich countries will be disproportionately impacted by climate change because of their limited resources for adaptation. Even as¶ scientific understanding improves. which is further impeded by other human impacts to the environment such as development and habitat fragmentation. Very high temperatures¶ alone could become lethal. .org/global-warmingbasics/faq_s/glance_faq_science. It isclear that responding to climate change requires both mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to unavoidable change.uk/+/http://www. accessed 7/12/13. Beyond certain thresholds. But there will always be a cost to hedging bets in this way. such as mountainous habitats where the species have nowhere to migrate.gov. it will offset necessary investments in adaptation in addition to protecting against those adverse effects of climate change for which adaptation is particularly difficult. have limited resources to respond to the challenge of climate change.uk/media/C/2/Chapter_18_Understanding_the_Economics_of_Adaptation.hmtreasury. Even small changes in climate may be ¶ disruptive for some ecosystems (e. accessed 7/12/13. as the size of¶ impacts also depend on global efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions.

global warming can actually increase the risk of heavy snowfall. Instead. we will have cold winters. In recent winters. and that is the key to getting heavy precipitation. CBC) Global warming is about changes in long-term averages and not about single events. it means that cold weather will become less frequent and hot weather more frequent when averaged over decades. In fact.org/global -warmingbasics/faq_s/glance_faq_science.” http://www. . Conditions were just right in the past two winters for these air masses to meet up and create massive snowstorms. however. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. “Science FAQs. recently named the world’s top environmental think tank. In fact.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 14 AT: But it’s cold Distinction –It’s about global temperature averages – not regional isolated events – cold conditions could also be an indicator for warming. moist air is forced above the cold air and begins to precipitate into the cold air. accessed 7/12/13. Snowfall occurs when warm. Even with global warming. Since climate change increases the moisture content of the atmosphere. causing what would haven rain to freeze. It is also important to remember that a cold winter for one location doesn’t mean a cold winter everywhere. there will be fewer of them.cfm. including the Arctic and the tropics.¶ To create heavy snowfall the East Coast experienced during the 2009 and 2010 winters. you need two things: moist air and cold air. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. both of these trends have been observed over the past 50 years in the United States and globally. We also had more cold air than usual that spilled out of the Arctic. the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Pacific have supplied lots of moist air. it does not mean an end to cold weather. had an unusually warm winter in 2010. 2011 (June 2011.c2es. many parts of the world.

manufacturers to buildlow-emissions technologies like alternative energy and coal plants that store carbon dioxide underground.co.independent. China was the top market for windpower. 2007 (Timothy. It could then market those technologies to the world. and this is not likely to end any time soon." said¶ Hawkins. more than any other country. 'What does the United States know that we don't know?' and agree to their own cuts. Moreover. and its melting glaciers are all images we associate with China’s remarkable economic rise. agriculture. China tends to generate negative headlines – its badly polluted skies. and committed officials prove Coonan. spoke by telephone to the Reuters¶ Environment Summit in New York. China added 37GW of renewable power capacity." said David Hawkins of the environmental group National Resources Defense¶ Council. What is less well known is that China is leading the world in adopting key green technologies to help to fuel the country’s economic boom.in China regard the threats of global warming to their country with a much higher level of seriousness than their counterparts do here in the United States. but what is crucial is the mix of how China supplies its energy.¶ According to REN21’s 2010 Renewables Global Status Report. multiple pledges to reduce emissions. representing more than one-third of the world market – up from just a 2 per cent market share in 2004. a climate expert said on Tuesday. Hawkins is based in Washington but visits China often. “China's renewed effort to clean up its act. adding 23GW in 2009 to end the year with 197GW. Lead On Climate. and¶ development reform agencies.” http://www. 3. China reducing emissions now – Leader in many areas of renewable energy. including 31GW of hydropower and 48GW of non-hydro capacity. China’s National Development and Reform Commission . mostly driven by burning fossil fuels." he said. Scribd. doubling its windpower capacity for the fifth year in a row. accessed 7/12/13.top level ministry officials -.¶ In July.scribd. The central government in Beijing has set a target of generating 15 per cent of all electricity from renewable sources by 2020. meeting with government¶ ministers heading the country's science and technology. to take a leadership role. CBC) When it comes to environmental issues. The Independent. "Then countries like China are going to say. to reach 226GW of total renewables capacity. accessed 7/12/13. Sep. If the United States agrees to cut emissions deeply with a¶ baseline that gets tougher over time. Hawkins. nearly 80GW of renewable capacity was added. and the effects of China going green will be felt all around the world. its dirty rivers. He said they are very concerned about the possibility that global warming would lead to drastic cuts in water for agriculture.uk/life-style/newenergyfuture/chinas-renewed-effort-to-clean-up-its-act2068595. Globally. head of the group's climate center.S. correspondent on energy and the environment. forcing China to act. more than 70 per cent of the world’s solar hot-water heaters are in China. and they are the main source of hot water for many households. China has nearly doubled its hydropower capacity during the five years to 2009. lead if Washington agrees to tackle its emissions in the next few years because China's government takes the threat of global warming more seriously than the United States does . 2010 (Clifford. China assumed the mantle of the world’s largest carbon emitter from the United States in 2007. it would spur U. "My impression is that the national government -.S. China added 13. Coal provides nearly 70 per cent of China’s energy needs. “Experts Say China Would Follow U. reporter for the independent.S.html.S. CBC) China would soon follow the U. ¶ There is a lot to do. environmental protection.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 15 AT: China China would model US action on climate change Gardner. and its people are forced to live with the consequences of rapid industrialisation. 2. Oct.com/doc/30958756/Warming-General.8GW of windpower."The biggest carrot is to have the U.” http://www.

so it’s now crucial for the government to give support for the domestic market. It shows China can behave like a big country and it shows the Chinese government is committed. and I’m confident it will.” he said. China installed the first major offshore wind project outside of Europe last year. While this will not cut the overall amount of emissions. Announcing a target was an effort to be seen as willing to do its fair share. China’s Vice-Minister of Environmental Protection. This pledge lifts China on to the global political and economic stage. said in December if it achieves a reduction in these pollutants. . “China has already made a promise on emissions reduction.¶ Although China adopted some muscular negotiating tactics at the Copenhagen summit on climate change.” said Huang. by 2015. The plan was announced by Jiang Bing. The solar market is mainly manufacturing for export but growth is slowing. the head of the National Energy Administration.¶ Huang Min. and some countries accuse Beijing of hijacking the talks. adding 63MW by year-end for a project that reached 102MW earlier this year.¶ The Chinese government is investing serious resources to stop pollution. This promise is not only a challenge.6 per cent of the total. China’s total capacity of windpower operations increased by 92. creating 15 million jobs in the sector. but a huge business opportunity. and binding reduction targets have been included in the central government’s 11th Five-Year Plan to control the discharges of key water pollutants. When it comes to issues of sustainability. natural gas would account for 8. it is a step in the right direction. It’s good for energy security and it’s good for economic development. Shi Pengfei of the China Hydropower Engineering consulting group believes China has the best and the newest wind turbines.000 billion yuan (£470bn) between 2011 and 2020. Other areas include wind energy.26 per cent compared with the same period of 2008. where China is already a top-three manufacturer. the founder of the Himin Solar Energy Group in Dezhou. the head of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace China.” Yang said. “By the end of 2009. is on a quest to convince his fellow Chinese of the need to go green. Windpower. and solar energy. China has pledged to cut the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 by 40 to 45 per cent against 2005 levels. “One area of particular interest is how to make more efficient cars – China is already a world leader in electric cars. the smart money is on China’s efforts to boost green technology and clean energy options. China needs to continue its domestic efforts to improve green tech and sustainability.” said Yang Ailun.¶ There are other groundbreaking projects taking place. such as chemical oxygen demand (COD) and sulphur dioxide. solar power and biomass would increase from less than 1 per cent now to almost 2. who said the bureau envisages that.” Shi said. China should also see a strong demand for it to play a leadership role internationally. China is too big to be ignored.3 per cent of energy. with hydropower and nuclear power jumping from 7 per cent to 9 per cent of primary energy consumption. “China is committed to developing clean energy because of all the domestic imperatives to do so.Gonzaga Debate Institute 16 Warming Core announced an alternative energy planning programme which would invest 5. “Post-Copenhagen. this would result in a reduction of 250 million tons in CO2 emissions. Yang believes the main potential in clean energy lies in energy efficiency and clean energy technology. Li Ganjie.

any alternative explanation for the source of the CO2 in the atmosphere has to also come up with where the 30 billion tonnes of CO2 known to be released by fossil fuel burning each year goes. ¶ Most obviously. but the point is that the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere clearly demonstrates that they do not soak up enough. some it simply regrowth of forests etc.¶ Atmospheric CO2 is currently increasing at about 2 ppmv per year (or 16 billion tonnes).skepticalscience. June 26.500 ppm) that we are in no danger of running out. the extra CO2 was not released in the form of CO2 from an unknown source but instead some reduced carbon compound was burnt in the atmosphere to produce CO2. The pH decrease in the oceans corresponds to most of the “missing” CO2. accessed 7/12/13. New Zealand chemical oceanographer.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 17 AT: CO2 from oceans Fossil fuels are the root cause of CO2 emissions – multiple indicators prove Mackie. Caveat: Land use and biomass changes certainly soak up a lot of CO2.¶ Atmospheric oxygen is going down by the same amount as atmospheric CO2 is going up. Oxygen is so abundant at about 21% (209. . CBC) We can be confident the extra CO2 in the atmosphere has come from the oxidation of fossil fuels and not from outgassing from the ocean or from soil/land sources by using two key observations. “CO2 is Coming from the Ocean. That is.com/co2 coming-from-ocean.htm. so we can also be confident that land use changes etc are not a major source/sink. That is.” http://www. the carbon part of it has come from the oxidation of reduced carbon compounds and the oxygen has come from oxygen gas in the atmosphere. Skeptical Science. 2010 (Doug. only around half of the CO2 we release remains in the atmosphere. the change in oxygen simply shows that whatever the source of CO2 in the atmosphere.

D. Why does McLean come to a different result? This question is examined in Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J.0161).¶ Another interesting feature of McLean et al 2009 is a plot of unfiltered temperature data (GTTA) against the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to . C. According to one of its authors. They draw no attention to the fact that the correlations are between heavily filtered time series. The problem with the latter step is it removes any long-term trends from the original temperature data. and R. Wigley 2000. The first step filters the high-frequency variation from the time series while the second step filters low-frequency variation. Next. Santer 2001.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 18 AT: El Nino El Nino can’t explain warming – your authors misfiltered data Cook. and Climatic Researcher at University of East Anglia. let's examine how McLean et al arrived at their conclusion. However. March 18. Past analyses have found ENSO was responsible for 15 to 30% of interseasonal variability but little of the global warming trend over the past half century (Jones 1989.¶ Foster et al examine the filtering process that McLean et al applied to the temperature and ENSO data. The comparison between the filtered data for El Nino and Temperature are as follows:¶ From this close correlation. The long-term warming trend in the temperature record is where the disagreement between temperature and ENSO is greatest.8295).¶ To further illustrate how the filtering process increases the correlation between SOI and temperature. amplifying the noise while removing longer-term changes.com/peer-reviewed-response-to-mclean-elnino-paper. Professor of Environmental Science at Auckland University. This is because the filtering removes low frequency elements such as the long term warming trend. Carter (Foster et al 2010). McLean et al found only a weak correlation between temperature and SOI. de Freitas. Thompson 2008). they plotted a 12 month running average of Global Tropospheric Temperature Anomaly (GTTA. R. the correlation is now very high (R2 = 0. as described in the paper. This result contradicts virtually every other study into the connection between ENSO and temperature variability. This filtering has two steps . It has the opposite effect. M.¶ Why do McLean et al remove the long-term trend? They justify it by noting a lack of correlation between SOI and GTTA.¶ The Southern Oscillation Index shows no long term trend while the temperature record shows a long-term warming trend.¶ Despite the extreme distorting effect of their filter. particularly with regard to long-term warming trends. They then add white noise and a linear trend. To remove short-term noise. McLean et al consistently refer to the correlations as between SOI and tropospheric temperature. taking the derivative of a time series does not remove. McLean.02 times the SOI time series. This result is in strong contrast with two decades of peer-reviewed research which find ENSO has little influence on long-term trends.¶ First. speculating that the derivative filter might remove noise caused by volcanoes or wind. Bob Carter. Why the discrepancy? A response has now been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research (Foster et al 2010) explaining why McLean 2009 differs from the body of peerreviewed research. 2010 (John. This failure causes what is essentially a mistaken result to be misinterpreted as a direct relationship between important climate variables. McLean et al argued that more than two thirds of interseasonal and long-term variability in temperature changes can be explained by the Southern Oscillation Index. http://www.html. The correlation between the raw artificial temperature series and the SOI series is very low (R2 = 0. shortterm noise. leaves little room for any warming driven by human carbon dioxide emissions". CBC) A paper published mid-2009 claimed a link between global warming and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (McLean et al 2009). Skeptical Science. when the McLean et al filters are applied to both time series.skepticalscience. the authors construct an artificial "temperature" time series as -0. This has the effect of creating a temperature time series with a long term warming trend. accessed 7/12/13. or even reduce. Trenberth 2002. Penn State Metereology Professor. However. the paper found that the "close relationship between ENSO and global temperature. Consequently.they take 12-month moving averages then take the differences between those values which are 12 months apart. the light grey line) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI. they applied another filter to the data by subtracting the 12 month running average from the same average 1 year later. They compared both weather balloon (RATPAC) and satellite (UAH) measurements of tropospheric temperature to El Niño activity (SOI). the black line).

This warming trend is obscured by substituting the weather balloon data with satellite data after 1980. .¶ It has been well known for many years that ENSO is associated with significant variability in global temperatures on short timescales of several years. the splicing is obscured by the fact that the graph is split into different panels precisely at the splicing boundary. this relationship cannot explain temperature trends on decadal and longer time scales.2 K. However. Unfortunately. Splicing them together introduces an artificial 0. RATPAC-A data show a pronounced warming trend from 1960 to 2008 with the temperature line rising away from the SOI line.2-degree temperature drop at the boundary between the two. It is especially misleading because the mean values of RATPAC-A and UAH TLT data during their period of overlap differ by nearly 0. However the temperature signal is a splice of weather balloon data (RATPAC-A) to the end of 1979 followed by satellite data (UAH TLT) since 1980. This splicing + graph splitting technique is an effective way to "hide the incline" of the warming trend. primarily by filtering out any long-term trends. McLean et al 2009 grossly overstates the influence of ENSO.Gonzaga Debate Institute 19 Warming Core illustrate the quality of the match between them.

National Climatic Data Center. ¶ What is most remarkable about the mid-Holocene is that we now have a good understanding of both the global patterns of temperature change during that period AND what caused them. More over.000 years ago. Aug. It appears clear that changes in the Earth's orbit have operated slowly over thousands and millions of years to change the amount of solar radiation reaching each latitudinal band of the Earth during each month.000 to 5. 20. ¶ In summary.About 6." http://www. Graph courtesy of Kerwin et al.gov/paleo/globalwarming/holocene. was generally warmer than today.noaa. the midHolocene.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 20 AT: Holocene warm period The Holocene was only regional warming – natural causes can’t account for modern climate change NOAA.000 Years Ago. These orbital changes can be easily calculated and predict that the northern hemisphere should have been warmer than today during the mid-Holocene in the summer AND colder in the winter. was warmer than the present day. we know that these terms are obsolete and that the truth of the Holocene is more complicated than originally believed. "Mid-Holocene Warm Period . .000 years ago. accessed 7/12/13. CBC) Paleoclimatologists have long suspected that the "middle Holocene" or a period roughly from 7. 2008 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. however.html. Today. We also now know from both data and "astronomical" (or "Milankovitch") theory that the period of above modern summer temperatures did not occur at the same time around the northern hemisphere. 1999.¶ For larger viewing version of the graph.. however. and know without doubt that this proven "astronomical" climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years. please click here or on graph. there is no evidence to show that the average annual mid-Holocene temperature was warmer than today's temperatures. The paleoclimatic data for the mid-Holocene shows these expected changes.ncdc. Terms like the Alti-thermal or Hypsi-thermal or Climatic Optimum have all been used to refer to this warm period that marked the middle of the current interglacial period. roughly 6. we clearly know the cause of this natural warming. but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. or in the southern hemisphere at all. complete scientific reference located here.

economics. Dyer. However. “Climate Wars”. even if the tipping level [which puts us on course for an ice-free world] is temporarily exceeded.immediate and dramatic emission reductions of all greenhouse gases are urgently needed if the 2 deg C (or 3. 2011 (Richard. 1. CBC) There is no need to despair.6 deg F) limit is to be respected. if overshoot is in place for centuries. such as ice-sheet disintegration. by actions or inactions. if we want the Holocene to last into the indefinite future. the thermal perturbation will so penetrate the ocean that recovery without dramatic effects. the former president of the Worldwatch Institute. PhD in Middle Eastern history. will make. CBC) Thus. 2008 (Gwynne. As Hansen et al. several recent studies have begun to explore the limits within which the energy economy will have to stay if the world is to be protected from overly rapid climate change.. but in the end it is a choice that humanity as a whole. Mar. Jan.” p. Worldwatch Institute.4C. put it in their paper: A point of no return can be avoided. they could be devastated by more rapid shifts. however. . an independent research organization focused on natural resource and environmental issues. Tunali. and if we could manage to get the carbon dioxide concentration back down to a safe level before they have run their course.. Slowing the rate of climate change buys us time to adapt Flavin. long-term target is 350 parts per million or lower. The slow-feedback effects take a long time to work their way through the climate system. Odil. Science and scientists will not and should not make that choice.0 and 2. CO2 concentration can be brought back down. atmospheric CO2 concentrations are already at levels predicted to lead to global warming of between 2. which is that it will be governments that will decide. CBC) To assist policymakers. This choice by governments may be affected by risk tolerance. climate science can then provide valuable information about what steps will be required to keep climate change within that limit. While both people and natural systems may be able to adapt to slow change. but for the remainder of this book I am going to revert to the 450 parts per million ceiling that has become common currency among most of those who are involved in climate change issues. researcher for the Worldwatch Institute. Lexis.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 21 AT: Inevitable/too late to solve Warming is not inevitable – significant cuts solve Somerville. Ocean and ice-sheet inertia permit overshoot. This scientific conclusion illustrates a key point. becomes unlikely. “Climate Science and EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Regulations. 8. provided the [concentration of carbon dioxide] is returned below the tipping level before initiating irreversible dynamic change . professor of Oceanography at UC San Diego and coordinating lead author in the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. which are more likely to cause major disruptions. and environmental author. CQ Congressional Testimony. what level of climate change they regard as tolerable. They show that it is the rate of warming as much as the absolute amount that will determine the scale of the human and ecological impact. 43. acting through national governments. priorities. MA in military history. After governments have set a tolerable limit of climate change. June 1996. The conclusion from both the IPCC and subsequent analyses is blunt and stark . and other considerations.. 1996 (Christopher. If we manage to stop the rise in the . Warming is not inevitable – even if temporarily over the tipping point. “Worldwatch Paper 130. The real. they might be stopped in their tracks.

I suspect that few now alive will see the day when we seriously start work on bringing the concentration back down to 350. but one step at a time will have to suffice.Gonzaga Debate Institute 22 Warming Core carbon dioxide concentration at or not far beyond that figure. . then we must immediately begin the equally urgent and arduous task of getting it back down to a much lower level that is safe for the long term. so let us focus here on how to stop it rising past 450.

written by M. warmer "Medieval Warm Period". Aug. 2008 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hughes and H. and in the underlying paleoclimate proxy data utilized. please see Box 6." http://www. including the Medieval Warm Period.000 years. and also comparable to temperatures during the early 20th century. ¶ In summary. (Click here for complete review reference). The regional patterns and the magnitude of this warmth remain an area of active research because the data become sparse going back in time prior to the last four centuries.19th centuries.noaa. available from the National Academy Press. ¶ The plot below. but all reconstruct the same basic pattern of cool "Little Ice Age". Discussion of the last 2. National Climatic Data Center.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 23 AT: Medieval Warm Period Best data proves global temperature averages are higher now than the Medieval warm period NOAA. 20.html. please read this review published in Climatic Change. Diaz.000 Years". it appears that the late 20th and early 21st centuries are likely the warmest period the Earth has seen in at least 1200 years.4 of the IPCC 2007 Palaeoclimate chapter.F. To learn more about the "Medieval Warm Period". shows numerous Northern Hemisphere paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions. . The various studies differ in methodology. from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007). "The Medieval Warm Period. and regional patterns and uncertainties. accessed 7/12/13.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval. As paleoclimatic records have become more numerous. it has become apparent that "Medieval Warm Period" or "Medieval Optimum" temperatures were warmer over the Northern Hemisphere than during the subsequent "Little Ice Age".ncdc. and still warmer late 20th and 21st century temperatures.K. appears in the National Research Council Report titled "Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2. For a summary of the latest available research on the nature of climate during the "Medieval Warm Period". CBC) Norse seafaring and colonization around the North Atlantic at the end of the 9th century indicated that regional North Atlantic climate was warmer during medieval times than during the cooler "Little Ice Age" of the 15th .

Explosive volcanic eruptions occasionally eject large amounts of dust and sulphate aerosol high into the atmosphere. particularly the burning of fossil fuels. global average temperature rose. ozone depletion and land use change. When the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases are included in the models. or ‘aerosols’. such as El Niño. In the early part of the 20th century. The role of natural internal processes can be estimated by studying observed variations in climate and by running climate models without changing any of the external factors that affect climate. such as Mt. during which time greenhouse gas concentrations started to rise. human-sourced aerosols. have caused a rapid¶ ¶ increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. analysis indicates that a large portion is due to external factors. the models produce good simulations of the warming that has occurred over the past century. the models also simulate a geographic pattern of temperature change around the globe similar to that which has occurred in recent decades. which has features such as a greater warming at high northern latitudes. average global temperatures levelled off. Human activities have also caused increased concentrations of fine reflective particles. Human activities over the last 100 years. accessed 7/12/13. in the atmosphere. The late 20th century has been unusually warm. ice cores and other types of natural ‘thermometers’ prior to the industrial age.¶ Although natural internal climate processes.¶ The natural external factors that affect climate include volcanic activity and variations in solar output. solar output was probably increasing and there was little volcanic activity. CBC) It is very unlikely that the 20th-century warming can be explained by natural causes. Solar output has an 11-year cycle and may also have longer-term variations. such as volcanic activity and variations in solar output. The combined effects of natural internal variability and natural external factors can also be estimated from climate information recorded in tree rings. such as El Niño. as increases in aerosols from fossil fuels and other sources cooled the planet.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 24 AT: Natural Cycle Warming is unprecedented – only human factors can account for climatic data in the 20th and 21 st centuries IPCC. Palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the second half of the 20th century was likely the warmest 50-year period in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 1300 years. When human factors are included.¶ Numerous experiments have been conducted using climate models to determine the likely causes of the 20th-century climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The eruption of Mt. Climate models provide a suitable tool to study the various influences on the Earth’s climate. Agung in 1963 also put large quantities of reflective dust into the upper atmosphere. Pinatubo in 1991. This rapid warming is consistent with the scientific understanding of how the climate should respond to a rapid increase in greenhouse gases like that which has occurred over the past century.unibe. differs from the most important patterns of natural climate variability that are associated with internal climate processes. such as El Niño. particularly during the 1950s and 1960s.2. as well as natural external factors. models are able to simulate the observed 20th- . these gases had remained at near stable concentrations for thousands of years.html.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/faq/wg1_faq-9. The effect of external influences can be estimated with models by changing these factors. These experiments indicate that models cannot reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. The models fail to reproduce the observed warming when run using only natural factors. During the 1950s and 1960s. as shown in Figure 1. and the warming is inconsistent with the scientific understanding of how the climate should respond to natural external factors such as variability in solar output and volcanic activity. can cause variations in global mean temperature for relatively short periods.” https://www. as well as changes in external influences. Before the industrial age. temporarily shielding the Earth and reflecting sunlight back to space. Brief periods of global cooling have followed major volcanic eruptions. This spatial pattern. and by using physical understanding of the processes involved. The rapid warming observed since the 1970s has occurred in a period when the increase in greenhouse gases has dominated over all other factors. However. These external influences can be natural in origin. such as greenhouse gas emissions.ipcc. or caused by human activity.¶ Variations in the Earth’s climate over time are caused by natural internal processes. 2011 (“Can the Warming of the 20th Century be Explained by Natural Variability?.

¶ Estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last one to two millennia. Climate changes over millions of years can be much larger and have different causes (e. Confidence in these estimates is increased because prior to the industrial era. and historical weather records. Large changes in global mean temperature. The remaining variation is generally consistent with the variability simulated by climate models in the absence of natural and human-induced external factors. differences in the timing of the human and natural external influences help to distinguish the climate responses to these factors. such as human sourced aerosols.1). where there are insufficient observations. helps to distinguish the response to greenhouse gases from that of natural external factors. 2011 (“Is the Current Climate Change Unusual Compared to Earlier Changes in Earth’s History?. it must be clear which variable is being compared: is it greenhouse gas concentration or temperature (or some other climate parameter). accessed 7/12/13. The estimated climate variability caused by natural factors is small compared to the strong 20th-century warming. and is it their absolute value or their rate of change? Second.¶ When comparing the current climate change to earlier. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.¶ An important source of uncertainty arises from the incomplete knowledge of some external factors. such as El Niño. but others are. since local factors (e. This pattern includes more warming over land than over the oceans. In addition. the resulting climate change within this century would be extremely unusual in geological terms.unibe. an increase in solar output had been responsible for the recent climate warming. Such considerations increase confidence that human rather than natural factors were the dominant cause of the global warming observed over the last 50 years. sea ice feedback). both the troposphere and the stratosphere would have warmed. Nevertheless. and has done so at an exceptionally fast rate. If warming continues unabated. whereas most of the warming of the past 50 years is attributable to human activities . continental drift) compared to climate changes on a centennial time scale. The concentration of CO2 is now known accurately for the past 650.g. local changes must not be confused with global changes. . including human influences from sources such as greenhouse gases and natural external factors. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has reached a record high relative to more than the past half-million years.. natural ones.g.. CBC) Climate has changed on all time scales throughout Earth’s history. all models simulate a pattern of response to greenhouse gas increases from human activities that is similar to the observed pattern of change. If. In addition. While there is uncertainty in the estimates of past temperatures. Models and observations also both show warming in the lower part of the atmosphere (the troposphere) and cooling higher up in the stratosphere. much of the variation they show in Northern Hemisphere average temperatures can be explained by episodic cooling caused by large volcanic eruptions and by changes in the Sun’s output. Local climate changes are often much larger than global ones. it is necessary to distinguish between time scales. probably even for more than a millennium. This pattern of change. This is another ‘fingerprint’ of change that reveals the effect of human influence on the climate.. The model-estimated responses to these external factors are detectable in the 20th-century climate globally and in each individual continent except Antarctica. for example. provide additional evidence¶ ¶ that the 20th-century warming cannot be explained by only natural internal variability and natural external forcing factors.ipcc. they show that it is likely that the second half of the 20th century was the warmest 50-year period in the last 1300 years.¶ The main reason for the current concern about climate change is the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (and some other greenhouse gases).Gonzaga Debate Institute 25 Warming Core century changes in temperature when they include all of the most important external factors. changes in oceanic or atmospheric circulation) can shift the delivery of heat or moisture from one place to another and local feedbacks operate (e. based on natural ‘thermometers’ such as tree rings that vary in width or density as temperatures change." https://www.html.000 years from antarctic ice cores.2. First.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/faq/wg1_faq-6. three distinctions must be made. which differs from the principal patterns of temperature change associated with natural internal variability. CO2 concentrations indicate this cycle is not natural IPCC. the climate models themselves are imperfect. Third. require some global forcing (such as a change in greenhouse gas concentration or solar activity). Some aspects of the current climate change are not unusual. Current global temperatures are warmer than they have ever been during at least the past five centuries.g. The human influence on climate very likely dominates over all other causes of change in global average surface temperature during the past half century. in contrast. Another unusual aspect of recent climate change is its cause: past climate changes were natural in origin (see FAQ 6. which is very unusual for the Quaternary (about the last two million years).

000 years ago. Over the past century. where much of the¶ ¶ local variation averages out and variability is smaller. which is larger than the global warming signal of the past century of about 0. 18th and 19th centuries. can be several degrees celsius.. as it does not have the same value all over the globe.¶ Temperature is a more difficult variable to reconstruct than CO2 (a globally well-mixed gas).000 years (see Section 6. although large climate changes have occurred in the past. there is no evidence that these took place at a faster rate than present warming. CO2 concentration varied between a low of 180 ppm during cold glacial times and a high of 300 ppm during warm interglacials. .¶ More meaningful for global changes is an analysis of large-scale (global or hemispheric) averages. but not unusual on longer time scales for which changes in tectonic activity (which can drive natural. the approximately 80-ppm rise in CO2 concentration at the end of the past ice ages generally took over 5.4).g. there is no evidence that this rate of possible future global change was matched by any comparable global temperature increase of the last 50 million years. Hence.1).600 years. Hence. during which the global mean temperature changed by 4°C to 7°C between ice ages and warm interglacial periods (local changes were much larger. Further back in time. Are more rapid global climate changes recorded in proxy data? The largest temperature changes of the past million years are the glacial cycles.7°C. then the Earth will have experienced about the same amount of global mean warming as it did at the end of the last ice age. ice cores.¶ Further back in time. For comparison. beyond ice core data. all published reconstructions find that temperatures were warm during medieval times. even those over just a few decades. which would be unlikely to affect the global mean temperature. the time resolution of sediment cores and other archives does not resolve changes as rapid as the present warming. an ice core) is only of limited value. Before 2. etc. However. Local temperature fluctuations. It is thus clear that the current rate of global climate change is much more rapid and very unusual in the context of past changes. see Section 6. slow variations in greenhouse gas concentration) become relevant (see Box 6. only to have likely been exceeded since then. go back more than a thousand years with decreasing spatial coverage for earlier periods (see Section 6.Gonzaga Debate Institute 26 Warming Core During this time. There are strong indications that a warmer climate. These conclusions are supported by climate modelling as well.3).. but may have been reached again in the mid-20th century. The much-discussed abrupt climate shifts during glacial times (see Section 6. current warmth appears unusual in the context of the past millennia. but they do not provide evidence for warmer-than-present global annual mean temperatures going back through the Holocene (the last 11.5). for example near the continental ice sheets). with greatly reduced global ice cover and higher sea level.3) are not counter-examples. Higher values than at present have only occurred many millions of years ago (see FAQ 6. The medieval level of warmth is uncertain. Sufficient coverage of instrumental records goes back only about 150 years. the data indicate that the global warming at the end of an ice age was a gradual process taking about 5. and warmed rapidly after that.¶ A different matter is the current rate of warming. cooled to low values in the 17th. so that a single record (e. compilations of proxy data from tree rings. prevailed until around 3 million years ago. While there are differences among those reconstructions and significant uncertainties remain. If projections of approximately 5°C warming in this century (the upper end of the range) are realised. it rapidly increased well out of this range.000 years. and is now 379 ppm (see Chapter 2). since they were probably due to changes in ocean heat transport. temperature variations have not been systematically compiled into largescale averages.1).

“Decline in Sun’s Activity Does Not Always Mean That Earth Becomes Cooler.htm. ¶ It is well established that the Sun's activity waxes and wanes over an 11-year cycle and that as its activity wanes. such as sunspot number and the solar cycle length. it tends to cool the Earth ScienceDaily. accessed 7/13/12. Svensmark and others have also argued that recent global warming has been a result of solar activity and reduced cloud cover. the lack of trend in GCR does not falsify the mechanism proposed by Svensmark. according to a new study published in the journal Nature. CBC) There is little evidence for a connection between solar activity (as inferred from trends in galactic cosmic rays) and recent global warming. the overall amount of radiation reaching Earth decreases. There are a large number of recent peer-reviewed scientific publications demonstrating how solar activity can affect our climate (Benestad.¶ ¶ The fact that there is little recent trend in the GCR and solar activity does not mean that solar activity is unimportant for earth’s climate.g. Contrary to expectations. but also in papers by Svensmark). there has been an enhanced controversy about the role of solar activity for earth’s climate.” http://www. 7. and how changes in GCR can explain a global warming without containing such a trend.php/archives/2004/12/recent-warming-but-no-trend-in-galactic-cosmicrays/.realclimate. the jury is still out. such as how changes in the UV radiation following the solar activity affect the stratospheric ozone concentrations (1999) and how earth’s temperatures respond to changes in the total solar irradiance (Meehl. 2010 (Oct. it is clear that the GCR does not contain any clear and significant long-term trend (e. i. PHD in physics from Atmospheric. the lack of trend in GCR is also consistent with little long-term change in other solar proxies. accessed 7/13/12. Furthermore.com/releases/2010/10/101006141558.¶ ¶ ¶ Svensmark’s failure to comment on the lack of a clear and significant long -term downward GCR trend. the amount of energy reaching Earth at visible wavelengths increased rather than decreased as the Sun's activity declined. ScienceDaily. As for this latter issue.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 27 AT: Sun Variance Solar activity can’t account for the recent global warming trends – your evidence is based on flawed data Benestad. when it was in a declining part of its 11-year activity cycle. Oceanic & Planetary Physics at Oxford University and Member of European Meteorological Society.org/index. This issue is discussed in detail in Benestad (2002). causing . Since the paper by Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991)." http://www.e. RealClimate. 2004 (Rasmus. Recent Warming But No Trend in Galactic Cosmic Rays.sciencedaily. 2003).¶ Although the Sun's activity declined over this period. 2002). For one thing. Damon and Laut have criticized their hypothesis and argue that the work by both Friis-Christensen and Lassen and Svensmark contain serious flaws. 6. Recent evidence proves that when the Sun’s activity increases. Svensmark (1998) later proposed that changes in the inter-planetary magnetic fields (IMF) resulting from variations on the sun can affect the climate through galactic cosmic rays (GCR) by modulating earth’s cloud cover. the new research shows that it may have actually caused Earth to become warmer. when the most recent warming started. Study Shows. This latest study looked at the Sun's activity over the period 2004-2007. Moreover. CBC) The Sun's activity has recently affected Earth's atmosphere and climate in unexpected ways. is one major weakness of his argument that GCR is responsible for recent global warming. The study. Fig. 1. Dec. shows that a decline in the Sun's activity does not always mean that Earth becomes cooler. since the 1960s. that GCR act as a trigger for cloud condensation nuclei and are related to the amount of low clouds. by researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Colorado.

¶ Following this surprising finding. the researchers behind the study believe it is possible that the inverse is also true and that in periods when the Sun's activity increases. so the researchers believe it is possible that during this period. rather than a small warming effect as had previously been thought. the Sun has been contributing a small cooling effect. Earth. rather than warm. This is based on what is already known about the relationship between the Sun's activity and its total energy output. .¶ Overall solar activity has been increasing over the past century.Gonzaga Debate Institute 28 Warming Core this warming effect. it tends to cool.

While the several dozen top models remain rough approximations.” http://www. which produce their own heat. 8.)¶ “There’s no urbanization going on on the ocean. from the “balance of evidence.)¶There has been a parallel warming trend over land and oceans. Nov. the closer one gets to a particular pixel.co. probably caused most of the recent warming. and appears linked to the greenhouse gases that hold in heat radiating from the earth’s surface. and in more recent studies reviewed for the coming report. senior editor of Discover. Jan. “Climate change skeptics ‘wrong’. So what is the basis for the ever-stronger scientific agreement on the planet’s warming even in the face of blurry details?¶ As in a pointillist painting.¶ In the models. accessed 7/13/12. A number of trends have been identified:¶The global average minimum nighttime temperature has risen. (Scientists say that variations in the sun’s output. the meaning emerges from the broadest view.)¶The stratosphere. and senior writer at Science Digest. CBC) A major argument used by sceptics of global warming is flawed.ipcc. be it hurricane strength. would instead cause similar trends in the two atmospheric layers instead of opposite ones. the increase in the amount of heat-trapping asphalt cannot be the only culprit. 2004 (Richard. or the rate at which seas could rise. The main findings of the panel’s fourth assessment since 1990 will be released in Paris on Feb. the only way to replicate the remarkable warming. chief of the climate monitoring branch of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville. New York Times. for example. One plots temperatures observed on calm nights.C. accessed 7/13/13. the harder it is to be precise.” said Jay Lawrimore. the scientific picture of a growing and potentially calamitous human influence on the climate has moved from being abstract a century ago to impressionistic 30 years ago to pointillist today. even after the sun has gone down.¶ ¶ ¶ The analysis has been done by Dr David Parker. has cooled. the other on windy nights. “Connecting the Global Warming Dots. (Throw in a lot of climate shifts and acidifying oceans for good measure. high above the earth’s surface.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4021197.nytimes. He used data for the last 50 years to create two separate graphs.html?_r=0. Almost everyone in the field says the consequences can essentially be reduced to a formula: More CO2 = warmer world = less ice = higher seas. BBC environment correspondent.¶ The impact of a buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is now largely undisputed.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 29 AT: Urban heat island effect The urban heat island effect doesn’t affect temperature readings Black. 2. The Met Office believes its study shows this "urban heat island" idea is wrong.¶ In the panel’s last report. N. in the troposphere. (This is unlikely to be caused by some variability in the sun.¶ Indeed. www. which makes it hard to get people to change their behavior. for example. past and present.” as the scientific case is described in the periodic reports issued by an enormous international network of experts: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CBC) If thought of as a painting.bbc. a UK Met Office study in Nature magazine says.¶ Most are in or near cities.” http://news. so the rapid warming measured over the last century could be just a record of urbanisation. various trends provide clues that human activity. (In other words. and extraordinary Arctic . they have become progressively better at replicating climate patterns. 14.com/2007/01/14/weekinreview/14basics. staff writer at the LA Times. BBC. which is an expected outcome of having more heat trapped by the gases closer to the surface.¶ This argument maintains that much recorded climate data is inherently unreliable because of where weather instruments are situated. rather than natural phenomena.¶ Another important finding comes from computer simulations of the climate system. 2007 (Andrew.stm. Warming over oceans disprove narrow urban heat island theory Revkin.ch. issued in 2001.)¶ But the prognosis — and the proof that people are driving much of the warming — still lacks the sharpness and detail of a modern-day photograph.

S. opposite to what might be expected. with error uncertainties up to 5 degrees C.Gonzaga Debate Institute 30 Warming Core warming. of recent decades is to add greenhouse gases as people have been doing. . Lexis. and additional data needs to be studied. In fact.¶ “Without the greenhouse gases. no doubt about it.S. Oct. Hot urban centers are part of the Earth. We have looked only at average temperature changes.” The “Urban Heat Island Effect” is not relevant to warming trends Muller. although poor station quality might affect absolute temperature. and we are preparing several additional papers for publication elsewhere. “Climate Change Policy Issues. to leave the average temperature of the non-urban Earth. or close to heat sources. but their warmth is not caused by rising CO2 concentration.that station quality bias did not affect estimates of global warming based on a smaller set of stations. 32. So unless someone comes up with believable proof that the urban heat island is important. The question is whether any warming in the computed average temperature could actually be the urban heat island effect instead of global warming. Did such poor station quality exaggerate the estimates of global warming? We've studied this issue. imprecise task. But we are consistently finding that there is no enhancement of global warming trends due to the inclusion of the poorly ranked US stations. and they do contribute to the average temperature of the Earth. the trend is what is important. It turns out to be a non-issue. in our preliminary analysis the good stations report more warming in the U. Thus.” pg. using over 1000 stations. Our key caveat is that our results are preliminary and have not yet been published in a peer reviewed journal. professor of Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago. 6. and Anthony Anthony Watts and his team have a paper submitted. network do not show greater warming than do the good stations.009 0. Dr. “you just don’t get what we’ve observed. 31. CBC) Let me now address the problem of Poor Temperature Station Quality Many temperature stations in the U. than the poor stations by 0. which is in late stage peer review. We have begun that process of submitting a paper to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2008 (David. Mar. Paved land is measurably warmer than vegetated land. 2011 (Richard. regardless of how they deal with urban heat island effects (Figure 4). but also consistent with zero. to look at (for example) changes in maximum and minimum temperatures. professor of physics at Berkely. we'll not worry about it. “The Long Thaw. We are currently checking these results and performing the calculation in several different ways. are located near buildings. and for global warming estimates. competing studies produce very similarlooking global average land temperature records. in parking lots. CBC) One oft-discussed issue with regard to the reconstruction of average temperature is called the urban heat island effect. Independent. The Berkeley Earth analysis shows that over the past 50 years the poor stations in the U. Anthony Watts and his team has shown that most of the current stations in the US Historical Climatology Network would be ranked "poor" by NOAA's own standards. This is a subjective.S. Lawrimore said. but it has not yet been accepted for publication and I am not at liberty to discuss their conclusions and how they might differ. but replicate studies find that it makes little difference to the global average whether urban areas are excluded or not.009 degrees per decade.” CQ Congressional Testimony.” he said. it does not appear to affect trends. by picking it out by hand. NOAA has already published a similar conclusion . and our preliminary answer is no. because vegetated land cools by evaporation. The easiest solution is to throw out urban data. The “Urban Heat Island Effect” has zero influence on climate modeling – studies prove Archer.

1. then how does Plimer know how much carbon dioxide a hot spring emits? No supporting evidence or references are offered.earthmagazine. “Voices: Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide: The missing science. how it is known that volcanoes wholly outdo humans in adding carbon dioxide to the oceans and atmosphere.100 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Even if you take the highest estimate of volcanic carbon dioxide emissions.¶ Several studies containing these estimates are among its 2. but they do not support the power station comparison. one of these submarine hot springs allegedly generates “far more” than 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year — or far more than three times .” http://www. SUVs.¶ The treatment of volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in this book illustrates one of the pathways by which myths. And one that will reverberate in the media and blogosphere — no matter how vociferously professionals who investigate volcanic carbon dioxide emissions bristle and huff about how appallingly at odds Plimer’s claim is with our research findings.” yet “carbon dioxide from tens of thousands of submarine hot springs associated with these submarine basalt volcanoes quietly dissolves in the cold highpressure deep ocean water. wagons) contribute about 3.” So says geologist Ian Plimer of the University of Adelaide in his 2009 best seller “Heaven and Earth: Global Warming — the Missing Science. For example. the average carbon dioxide emission rate from coal-fired power generation in the United States is 1. scaled-down versions of the myth surface — for example.¶ According to the Environmental Protection Agency. accessed 7/13/13. equals 8. the book and other purveyors of this myth never explain.” Then.040 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. times 1.org/earth/article/371-7da-7-1e. These estimates are. Thus.311 citations. So.000 megawatt coal-fired power station yet they are neither seen nor measured.000 megawatts. “Heaven and Earth” describes submarine volcanoes as “poorly understood because of the lack of continuous observation and measurement. cement production.300 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2008. Plimer brings volcanic carbon dioxide degassing front and center in the climate change debate. misrepresentations and spurious information get injected into the climate change debate. the alleged predominance of volcanic over human carbon dioxide emissions is one of its most publicized takeaway messages. CBC) “Volcanoes add far more carbon dioxide to the oceans and atmosphere than humans. pickup trucks. nor cite sources that explain.” The truth is that data from the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center of Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the International Energy Agency indicate that light-duty vehicles (cars. gas flaring and land use changes . Moreover.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 31 AT: Volcanoes Volcanoes are comparatively irrelevant to global warming – humans emit over a 100 times more CO2 Gerlach.¶ These global volcanic estimates are utterly dwarfed by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning.¶ Published estimates based on research findings of the past 30 years for present-day global emission rates of carbon dioxide from subaerial and submarine volcanoes range from about 150 million to 270 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.” With this assertion. but the estimates themselves are never divulged.935. reviving and reinforcing this wildly mistaken notion. “Heaven and Earth” does not provide the published estimates of the present-day global carbon dioxide emission rate from volcanoes. there are measurements on the carbon dioxide flux of mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal fluids.200 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. geologist at the USGS. according to an international study published in the December 2009 issue of Nature Geoscience.02 metric tons per megawatt-hour. “Volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than the world’s cars and industries combined.¶ Another version of the myth is the all-powerful but poorly understood volcanic source. times 365 days per year. times 24 hours per day. The combined output is about 35 times greater than estimates of global volcanic carbon dioxide output. vans. Earth Magazine. ironically.” If this is neither seen nor measured. human-emitted carbon dioxide levels are more than 130 times higher than volcanic emissions.02 metric tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour. these emissions accounted for some 36. and industry adds another 6. In fact. June 30.¶ Although discussions of volcanic carbon dioxide emissions make up less than 5 percent of “Heaven and Earth’s” text. Like several climate skeptic publications. “the missing science” of a book professing to rectify supposed excesses of missing science — a book that appears impressively authoritative by citing a mountain of scientific literature. 2010 (Terry. with an average of about 200 million metric tons. blogs and websites. this statement: “One hot spring can release far more carbon dioxide than a 1. at 270 million metric tons per year.¶ Occasionally.

CBC) Feb.¶ The cloud also caused depletion of the ozone layer over Temperate Zone regions of the Northern Hemisphere where much of the world's population resides. the eruption on Luzon Island in the Philippines on June 15.com/releases/2002/02/020220075850.” www.¶ According to Robock. Volcanoes prove that climate models are accurate and that warming is anthropogenic Science Daily. but there is virtually no doubt that volcanism adds far less carbon dioxide to the oceans and atmosphere than humans. natural causes alone don't account for the amount of warming. an overall net cooling at the earth's surface and altered winds and weather patterns.¶ Using computer modeling.¶ After that period. accessed 7/13/13. a Rutgers scientist reports in a paper published in the February 14 issue of the international journal. and validates the climate models. in addition to the regular ozone "hole" which appears in October over Antarctica.sciencedaily.htm. that has taken place in the last century. it produced a rare snowstorm in Jerusalem and led to the death of coral at the bottom of the Red Sea. 1991 produced the largest volcanic cloud of the 20th century and caused changes in worldwide climate and weather that were felt for years. 1. said Robock. “Pinatubo Volcano Research Boosts Case For Human -Caused Global Warming.000-kilometer-long mid-ocean ridge system.¶ "But when you factor in Pinatubo and other eruptions along with anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions. ¶ "If you plug in volcanic eruptions.¶ Most significant. solar variations and other natural causes and try to simulate past climate changes. Pinatubo helped validate computer-generated climate models that demonstrate human-caused global warming.6 degrees Celsius (1.¶ In certain areas such as the Middle East. 2002 (Feb." said the scientist. initially included cooler summers and warmer winters. you can do a pretty good job of modeling climate change until the end of the 19th Century. El Niños. Cook College. he said. about 0. Alan Robock of the university's Center for Environmental Prediction in the Department of Environmental Sciences. scientists have been able to account for natural warming and cooling. Science Daily. says the paper's author.¶ Global volcanic carbon dioxide emission estimates contain uncertainties and are variable. as found in Arctic and Antarctic ice core samples and tree rings covering hundreds of years up to the last century. 21." the researcher said. he noted. the scientist said. Robock said. which blocked a large percentage of sunlight from reaching the earth." .1 degrees Fahrenheit).Gonzaga Debate Institute 32 Warming Core the annual baseline output of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii! Just 12 of these hot springs would exceed carbon dioxide emission rate estimates for the entire 65.¶ The changes wrought by Pinatubo's sulfuric acid cloud. "it accounts for the observed record of climate change for the past century. NJ – Research into the worldwide climatic impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption during the 10 years since the eruption has strengthened the case for human causes of global warming. Science. 2002 — NEW BRUNSWICK/PISCATAWAY. including the overall warming and episodic cooling.¶ To scale up volcanic carbon dioxide output to the current anthropogenic level would require adding thousands of volcanoes to the 50 to 60 normally active volcanoes of the subaerial landscape and more than a hundred additional mid-ocean ridge systems to the seafloor. the researcher said.¶ Share This: The Pinatubo research also has improved scientists' ability to forecast the impact of future volcanoes on weather and climate.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 33 Impacts .

suffers occasional outbreaks of insurgency. 'Climate change will compound the propensity for violent conflict. Even Europe is at risk. The result is likely to be 'chaos. rivers such as the Niger and Monu are key freshwater resources passing through many nations. Its fresh water comes mostly from glacier melt water. it could offset the impending crisis. Asia and South America will suffer outbreaks of war and social disruption as climate change erodes land. melts glaciers and increases storms. 'Holland will be affected by rising sea levels.2 billion individuals. may cause surprise. 'Moscow's control of Russia as a whole will not be undermined by global warming.commondreams.' the report states. As droughts worsen and more water is extracted from them conflicts will be inevitable. this week. A Climate of Conflict. wars have left countries such as Serbia and Montenegro politically weakened. added the agency's secretary-general. A further 56 countries face political destabilization.' Conflict triggered by climate change is not a vague threat for coming years. raises seas. People will form defensive groups and battles will break out. If Peru took action now. 'It is already upon us. triggered by increasingly severe cyclones. Droughts in summer combined with worsening flooding in coastal zones.http://www.' .org/archive/2007/11/05/5016/] Victor. 7-12-13. said Smith.' said Smith. 'But loss of farmland in some regions will lead to local rebellions like those already triggered in Chechnya. conflict and mass migration'. Millions have already migrated to India. Some nations on the risk map. most countries are currently considered stable enough to cope with global warming. But other countries that suffer loss of land and water and be buffeted by increasingly fierce storms will have no effective government to ensure corrective measures are taken. Common Dreams. In Europe. 11/5/07. But the country has little experience of effective democracy. This stark warning will be outlined by the peace group International Alert in a report. KB A total of 46 nations and 2.7 billion people are now at high risk of being overwhelmed by armed conflict and war because of climate change. A different situation affects Bangladesh. As temperatures rise and farmland is reduced. and has border disputes with Chile and Ecuador. he added.' Consider Peru. are destroying farmland. such as Russia. affecting another 1.' he told The Observer. he added. In Africa. But by 2015 nearly all Peru's glaciers will have been removed by global warming and its 27 million people will nearly all lack fresh water. but no one expects war or strife. 'It has the resources and political structure to act effectively.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 34 Global Instability Climate change will cause global instability The Guardian 2007 [Climate Wars Threaten Billions. Dan Smith. apart from the Balkans. Here climate-linked migration is already triggering violent conflict. population pressures will trigger violence that authorities will be unable to contain. Much of Africa. The worst threats involve nations lacking resources and stability to deal with global warming. which in turn will leave communities poorer and less able to cope with the consequences of climate change. it concludes. causing increasingly serious conflicts that are destined to worsen. says International Alert.

Unfortunately. spread of disease. as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts “brutal droughts. says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New Yor k University.000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year” as disease spreads. and…worldwide. carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). “The world is slowly disintegrating. who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. Global warming is the post-Cold War era’s equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and considerably better supported scientifically. “glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected. “Earth’s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150. Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades now. and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate. severe warming could cost 13-26 percent of GDP. species extinction. so there is no way immediately to reduce levels.a preponderance of evidence proves it's real. about double pre-industrial levels. there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature. based on positive feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be. floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century”. Faced with this specter. At worst. “widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidad…killed broad swaths of corals” due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. we are thus in for significant global warming. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. though far in the future. “They call it climate change…but we just call it breaking up. Economist William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually. and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village.” Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly. only to slow their increase.” During the Cold War." Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today) Finally. even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. demands urgent action. the best one can conclude is that “humankind’s continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earth’s climate and humanity’s life support system. atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century. “we’re just going to burn everything up. and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty.” writes Elizabeth Kolbert. we’re going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles. “In legitimate scientific circles. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic warming is occurring. swamp the southern third of Florida. “rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes”. climate change could “literally alter ocean currents. associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures. mass die offs of plants and animals. As the newspaper stories quoted above show.000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution. plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago”. which. with 1998 a close second”. took place in just decades. astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but possible end life on this planet. "Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic of American Statecraft. “NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record. anthropogenic. It is the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. “it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the fundamentals of global warming. At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm. It is a . But the most frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 35 Warming Bad – Generic Warming causes extinction .” From the founding of the first cities some 6. and outweighs other threats Deibel 7 (Terry. leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolina’s outer banks. wipe away huge portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria”. Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame. we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms. Past ice age transitions.” concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq. and then everything will collapse. and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 36 Warming Core threat not only to the security and prosperity to the United States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.

Warming causes biodiversity loss, storms, and agriculture Weart 11 — (Spencer Weart, Director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics,
December 2011, The Discovery of Global Warming) A large body of scientific studies, exhaustively reviewed, has produced a long list of possibilities. Nobody can say that any of the items on the list are certain to happen. But the world's climate experts almost all agree that the impacts listed below are more likely than not to happen. For some items, the probabilities range up to almost certain. The following are the likely consequences of warming by a few degrees Celsius — that is, what we may expect if humanity manages to begin restraining its emissions soon, so that greenhouse gases do not rise beyond twice the pre-industrial level. Without strong action the doubling will come well before the end of this century, bringing the planet to temperatures not seen since the spread of agriculture. By 2007, many of the predicted changes were observed to be actually happening. For details see reports referenced in this footnote: (22) * Most places will continue to get warmer, especially at night and in winter. The temperature change will benefit some regions while harming others — for example, patterns of tourism will shift. The warmer winters will improve health and agriculture in some areas, but globally, mortality will rise and food supplies will be endangered due to more frequent and extreme summer heat waves and other effects. Regions not directly harmed will suffer indirectly from higher food prices and a press of refugees from afflicted regions. * Sea levels will continue to rise for many centuries. The last time the planet was 3°C warmer than now, the sea level was at least 6 meters (20 feet) higher.(23) That submerged coastlines where many millions of people now live, including cities from New York to Shanghai. The rise will probably be so gradual that later generations can simply abandon their parents' homes, but a ruinously swift rise cannot be entirely ruled out. Meanwhile storm surges will cause emergencies. <=Sea rise & ice * Weather patterns will keep changing toward an intensified water cycle with stronger floods and droughts. Most regions now subject to droughts will probably get drier (because of warmth as well as less precipitation), and most wet regions will get wetter. Extreme weather events will become more frequent and worse. In particular, storms with more intense rainfall are liable to bring worse floods. Some places will get more snowstorms, but most mountain glaciers and winter snowpack will shrink, jeopardizing important water supply systems. Each of these things has already begun to happen in some regions.(24) Drought in the 2060s * Ecosystems will be stressed, although some managed agricultural and forestry systems will benefit, at least in the early decades of warming. Uncounted valuable species, especially in the Arctic, mountain areas, and tropical seas, must shift their ranges. Many that cannot will face extinction. A variety of pests and tropical diseases are expected to spread to warmed regions. These problems have already been observed in numerous places. * Increased carbon dioxide levels will affect biological systems independent of climate change. Some crops will be fertilized, as will some invasive weeds (the balance of benefit vs. harm is uncertain). The oceans will continue to become markedly more acidic, gravely endangering coral reefs, and probably harming fisheries and other marine life. <=Biosphere * There will be significant unforeseen impacts. Most of these will probably be harmful, since human and natural systems are well adapted to the present climate. The climate system and ecosystems are complex and only partly understood, so there is a chance that the impacts will not be as bad as predicted. There is a similar chance of impacts grievously worse than predicted. If the CO2 level keeps rising to well beyond twice the pre-industrial level along with a rise of other greenhouse gases, as must inevitably happen if we do not take strong action soon, the results will certainly be worse . Under a "business as usual" scenario, recent calculations give even odds that global temperature will rise 5°C or more by the end of the century — causing a radical reorganization and impoverishment of many of the ecosystems that sustain our civilization.(25) All this is projected to happen to people who are now alive. What of the more distant future? If emissions continue to rise for a century — whether because we fail to rein them in, or because we set off an unstoppable feedback loop in which the warming itself causes ever more greenhouse gases to be evaporated into the air — then the gases will reach a level that the Earth has not seen since tens of millions of years ago. The consequences will take several centuries to be fully realized, as the Earth settles into its new state. It is probable that, as in the distant geological eras with high CO2, sea levels will be many tens of meters higher and the average global temperature will soar far above the present value: a planet grossly unlike the one to which the human species is adapted.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core

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Climate change leads to massive death and economic and agricultural loss Reuters, international news agency, 12 (Reuters 9/6/12 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/26/climate-changedeaths_n_1915365.html PB) LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - More than 100 million people will die and the global economy will miss out on as much as 3.2 percent of its potential output annually by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change , a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday. As global average temperatures rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, the effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather, drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and livelihoods, said the report conducted by humanitarian organisation DARA. It calculated that five million deaths occur each year from air pollution, hunger and disease as a result of climate change and carbonintensive economies, and that toll would likely rise to six million a year by 2030 if current patterns of fossil fuel use continue. More than 90 percent of those deaths will occur in developing countries, said the report that calculated the human and economic impact of climate change on 184 countries in 2010 and 2030. It was commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a partnership of 20 developing countries threatened by climate change. "A combined climate-carbon crisis is estimated to claim 100 million lives between now and the end of the next decade," the report said. It said the effects of climate change was already costing the global economy a potential 1.6 percent of annual output or about $1.2 trillion a year, and this could double to 3.2 percent by 2030 if global temperatures are allowed to rise. COUNTING THE COST Responding to the report, Oxfam International said the costs of political inaction on climate were "staggering". "The losses to agriculture and fisheries alone could amount to more than $500 billion per year by 2030 , heavily focussed in the poorest countries where millions depend on these sectors to make a living," said executive director Jeremy Hobbs. British economist Nicholas Stern told Reuters earlier this year investment equivalent to 2 percent of global GDP was needed to limit, prevent and adapt to climate change. His report on the economics of climate change in 2006 said that without any action to tackle climate change, the overall costs and risks of climate change would be equivalent to a cut in per-capita consumption of perhaps up to 20 percent. Temperatures have already risen by about 0.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. Almost 200 nations agreed in 2010 to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2C (3.6 Fahrenheit) to avoid dangerous impacts from climate change. But climate scientists have warned that the chance of limiting the rise to below 2C is getting smaller as global greenhouse gas emissions rise due to burning fossil fuels. The world's poorest nations are the most vulnerable as they face increased risk of drought, water shortages, crop failure, poverty and disease. On average, they could see an 11 percent loss in GDP by 2030 due to climate change, DARA said. "One degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated with 10 percent productivity loss in farming. For us, it means losing about 4 million metric tonnes of food grain, amounting to about $2.5 billion. That is about 2 percent of our GDP," Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said in response to the report. "Adding up the damages to property and other losses, we are faced with a total loss of about 3-4 percent of GDP." Even the biggest and most rapidly developing economies will not escape unscathed. The United States and China could see a 2.1 percent reduction in their potential GDPs by 2030, while India could experience a more than 5 percent loss of potential output.¶

Climate change leads to death and instability Vidal, The guardian’s environment chief editor, 09 (John Vidal 2/29/2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/may/29/1 PB) Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people, according to the first comprehensive study of the human impact of global warming.¶ It projects that increasingly severe heatwaves, floods, storms and forest fires will be responsible for as many as 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the greatest humanitarian challenge the world faces.¶ Economic losses due to climate change today amount to more than $125bn a year — more than all the present world aid. The report comes from former UN secretary general Kofi Annan's thinktank, the Global Humanitarian Forum. By 2030, the report says, climate change could cost $600bn a year.¶ Civil unrest may also increase because of weather-related events, the report says: "Four billion people are vulnerable now and 500m are now at extreme risk. Weather-related disasters ... bring hunger, disease, poverty and lost livelihoods.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 38 Warming Core They pose a threat to social and political stability".¶ If emissions are not brought under control, within 25 years, the report states:¶ • 310m more people will suffer adverse health consequences related to temperature increases¶ • 20m more people will fall into poverty¶ • 75m extra people will be displaced by climate change.¶ Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water supplies, it said. "Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation, hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and droughts. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to become water stressed by climate change by the 2030."¶ The study says it is impossible to be certain who will be displaced by 2030, but that tens of millions of people "will be driven from their homelands by weather disasters or gradual environmental degradation. The problem is most severe in Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, coastal zones and forest areas."¶ The study compares for the first time the number of people affected by climate change in rich and poor countries. Nearly 98% of the people seriously affected, 99% of all deaths from weather-related disasters and 90% of the total economic losses are now borne by developing countries. The populations most at risk it says, are in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, south Asia and the small island states of the Pacific.¶ But of the 12 countries considered least at risk, including Britain, all but one are industrially developed. Together they have made nearly $72bn available to adapt themselves to climate change but have pledged only $400m to help poor countries. "This is less than one state in Germany is spending on improving its flood defences," says the report.¶ The study comes as diplomats from 192 countries prepare to meet in Bonn next week for UN climate change talks aimed at reaching a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in December in Copenhagen. "The world is at a crossroads. We can no longer afford to ignore the human impact of climate change. This is a call to the negotiators to come to the most ambitious agreement ever negotiated or to continue to accept mass starvation, mass sickness and mass migration on an ever growing scale," said Kofi Annan, who launched the report today in London.¶ Annan blamed politicans for the current impasse in the negotiations and widespread ignorance in many countries. "Weak leadership, as evident today, is alarming. If leaders cannot assume responsibility they will fail humanity. Agreement is in the interests of every human being."¶ Barabra Stocking, head of Oxfam said: "Adaptation efforts need to be scaled up dramatically.The world's poorest are the hardest hit, but they have done the least to cause it.¶ Nobel peace prizewinner Wangari Maathai, said: "Climate change is life or death. It is the new global battlefield. It is being presented as if it is the problem of the developed world. But it's the developed world that has precipitated global warming."¶ Calculations for the report are based on data provided by the World Bank, the World Health organisation, the UN, the Potsdam Insitute For Climate Impact Research, and others, including leading insurance companies and Oxfam. However, the authors accept that the estimates are uncertain and could be higher or lower. The paper was reviewed by 10 of the world's leading experts incluing Rajendra Pachauri, head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Jeffrey Sachs, of Columbia University and Margareta Wahlström, assistant UN secretary general for disaster risk reduction.¶

Warming causes famine, disease, and resource wars – impacts already happening Lean 7 (Geoffrey Lean, Enviorment Editor for The Indepedant, news agency,
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/wars-of-the-world-how-global-warming-puts-60-nationsat-risk-442788.html) Scores of countries face war for scarce land, food and water as global warming increases. This is the conclusion of the most devastating report yet on the effects of climate change that scientists and governments prepare to issue this week. More than 60 nations, mainly in the Third World, will have existing tensions hugely exacerbated by the struggle for everscarcer resources. Others now at peace - including China, the United States and even parts of Europe - are expected to be plunged into conflict. Even those not directly affected will be threatened by a flood of hundreds of millions of "environmental refugees". The threat is worrying world leaders. The new UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, told a global warming conference last month: "In coming decades, changes in the environment - and the resulting upheavals, from droughts to inundated coastal areas - are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict." Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, has repeatedly called global warming "a security issue" and a Pentagon report concluded that abrupt climate change could lead to "skirmishes, battles and even war due to resource constraints". The fears will be increased by the second report this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The result of six years' work by 2,500 of the world's top scientists, it will be published on Good Friday. The first report, released two months ago, concluded that global warming was now "unequivocal" and it was 90 per cent certain that human activities are

Gonzaga Debate Institute 39 Warming Core to blame. The new one will be the first to show for certain that its effects are already becoming evident around the world. Tomorrow, representatives of the world's governments will meet in Brussels to start four days of negotiation on the ultimate text of the report, which they are likely to tone down somewhat. But the final confidential draft presented to them by the scientists makes it clear that the consequences of global warming are appearing far sooner and faster than expected. "Changes in climate are now affecting biological and physical systems on every continent," it says. In 20 years, tens of millions more Latin Americans and hundreds of millions more Africans will be short of water, and by 2050 one billion Asians could face water shortages. The glaciers of the Himalayas, which feed the great rivers of the continent, are likely to melt away almost completely by 2035, threatening the lives of 700 million people. Though harvests will initially increase in temperate countries - as the extra warmth lengthens growing seasons - they could fall by 30 per cent in India, confronting 130 million people with starvation, by the 2050s. By 2080, 100 million people could be flooded out of their homes every year as the sea rises to cover their land, turning them into environmental refugees . And up to a third of the world's wild species could be "at high risk of irreversible extinction" from even relatively moderate warming. International Alert, "an independent peace-building organisation", has complied a list of 61 countries that are already unstable or have recently suffered armed conflict where existing tensions will be exacerbated by shortages of food and water and by the disease, storm flooding and sea-level rise that will accompany global warming, or by the deforestation that helps to cause it. The list forms the basis of the map on the opposite page. Four years ago the Pentagon report concluded: "As famine, disease and weather-related disasters strike... many countries' needs will exceed their carrying capacity. This will create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression ." Many experts believe this has begun. Last year John Reid, the Home Secretary, blamed global warming for helping to cause the genocide in Darfur. Water supplies are seen as a key cause of the Arab-Israeli conflicts. The Golan Heights are important because they control key springs and rivers and the Sea of Galilee, while vital aquifers lie under the West Bank. John Ashton, the Government's climate change envoy, says that global warming should be addressed "not as a long-term threat to our environment, but as an immediate threat to our security and prosperity".

17 countries share 25 transboundary watercourses – and plans by many of the countries to invest in large dams that will both increase water withdrawals and change natural water allocation patterns between riparian countries. political. 104 Regional cooperation will be critical to avoid future climate-driven conflict and tension in the region. The population of the ten Nile countries is projected to increase from 280 million in 2000 to 860 million by 2050. the Nile Basin and Central Asia have been identified as regions potentially at risk of future tension and conflict. http://www. ethnic tensions and. Ethiopia. 12-12.99 Adverse climatic conditions already make societies more prone to violence and conflict across the developing world. along with many other factors such as a breakdown in methods of coping with drought. however. can potentially give rise to regional. Cambridge University Press. Empirical evidence shows that a changing and hostile climate has resulted in tension and conflict in some countries but not others.6 indicates areas vulnerable to future tension and past conflicts where an adverse climate has played an important role. approximately 70% of the Nile’s waters flow from the Ethiopian highlands. widespread poverty and. 112-113 NMS) Drought and other climate-related shocks may spark conflict and violence. with impacts ranging from no change to a roughly 40% reduction in flows by 2025 to over 60% by 2050 in 3 of the flow scenarios. Somalia. Support for this relationship has been provided by empirical work in Africa.centerforsecuritypolicy. Future risks •West part of the world.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 40 Warming Bad – Africa War Warming will push unstable African nations over the brink causing conflicts and wars Stern. 102 •The Nile: Ten countries share the Nile. Head of the British Government Economic Service. All of the conflicts in this tinderbox. In light of this. I. the region is Africa: Whilst there is still much uncertainty surrounding the future changes in rainfall in this already exposed to declining average annual rainfall (ranging from 10% in the wet tropical zone to more than 30% in the Sahelian zone since the early 1970s) and falling discharge in major river systems of between 40 to 60% on average. The risk of climate change sparking conflict is far greater if other factors such as poor governance and political instability. Sudan and Kenya. •Increased climate variability (such as periods of intense rain to prolonged dry periods) can result in adverse growth shocks and cause higher risks of conflict as work opportunities are reduced. Small wars.Senior Middle East Fellow – Center for Security Policy (Caroline. has been identified by some studies as a contributor to the current crisis there. Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. it is very unlikely to be the single driving factor. ethnic or religious tensions .org/home. Long periods of drought in the 1970s and 1980s in Sudan’s Northern Darfur State. which rage continuously. using rainfall shocks as an instrument for growth shocks. can easily escalate into big wars. which controls shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea.could be a contributory factor in both national and cross-border conflicts in some developing countries.7°C increase and 3°C or 4°C more could be on the way in the next 100 to 150 years. Box 4. Great power war Glick ‘7 . The report of a team commissioned by the British Government to study the economics of climate change led by Siobhan Peters. compounded by rapid population growth that will increase demand for water. The implications of this are amplified by both the high water interdependence in the region . and indeed global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers. Climate change threatens an increase in competition for water in the region. making recruitment into rebel groups much easier. West Africa. “Condi’s African Holiday”. The Horn of Africa includes the states of Eritrea.G. Former Head Economist for the World Bank. •Longterm climate deterioration (such as rising temperatures and sea levels) will exacerbate the competition for resources and may contribute to forced dislocation and migration that can generate destabilising pressures and tensions in neighbouring areas. The effects of climate change . p.100 Whilst climate change can contribute to the risk of conflict. 103 While Egypt is water scarce and almost entirely dependent on water originating from the upstream Nile basin countries. high water interdependence are already present. as they have done already in many parts of Africa. Head of G8 and International Climate Change Policy Unit. Changes of this magnitude already give some indication of the magnitude of risks in the future given that we have only seen 0. resulted in deep. . in the case of declining water availability. —2007 (Nicholas “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”. and existing economic.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568) The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. for example. A recent study by Strzepek et al (2001) found a propensity for lower Nile flows in 8 out of 8 climate scenarios. Patel Chair at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Djibouti.particularly when coupled with rapid population growth. both internally and cross-border.101 The region faces a serious risk of water-related conflict in the future if cooperative mechanisms are not agreed.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 41 .

all regional key players are flexing their military muscle to score psychological points in the information battlespace. As rising temperatures are freeing larger and larger areas of the Arctic from its icy shackles. politicians and the military are also turning their gaze to this region. NATO wrapped up its Cold Response maneuvers on the stretch from Sweden to Canada. Arctic conflicts are still a matter of theoretical disputes and an inspiration for computer games designers. the Arctic is becoming an zone of increased military competition. The Russian Northern Fleet. which are to be erected in the upcoming years." August) The fact is.300 troops engaged in this unprecedented military exercise. For instance. The situation around maritime traffic nodes has never been simple. Now. NATO. Nikolai Makarov. although military clashes remain an equally hazy perspective. Nuclear war Staples 9 (Stephen. "Steps Toward an Arctic Nuclear Weapon Free Zone. If the Arctic emerges as another junction of sea lanes it will spawn conflicts among the world powers. the Arctic is gradually emerging from under the eternal ice as a new geopolitical arena. choppers and marine aviation participated in the drills. Some of them will be erected close to nine emergency and transport ministerial centers. For now. when a Norwegian C-130J plane rammed into the western slope of the Swedish mountain. The war game was only clouded by a crash. staging their own maneuvers. territorial disputes and expanding shipping lanes have rendered it a very lucrative region – and thus potentially a “hot” one. The global media and especially local agencies are bristling with threats of a new Cold War in the Arctic. a focal point of interest and concern to the major world powers." These frontier posts.” specially trained to operate in the polar region. Russia is one of such ambitious northern powers. depending on how determined they will be to protect their national interests. NATO and Russia are both pursuing one and the same goal. In their war games. while major northern states are meeting to discuss regional security .ruvr. The rest of the frontiers will be built on the islands. Russia stage Arctic war games 4/19/12. Rideau Institute. Danish Institute of International Studies. http://english. is now focused on more pressing issues in Iraq. by Gen. On April 9-15. One of such meetings was held by military chiefs of all Arctic powers in Canada on April 12. “News Agency about Russian Affair”. the Horn of Africa. will serve as Russia’s bulwark beyond the Arctic Circle and will be secured by its Northern Fleet. which are much easier to start in the cold weather than the traditional diesel ones. Chief of Russia’s Armed Forces General Staff. Russia staged Ladoga 2012 maneuvers at the Karelian Besovets air base with 50 choppers and aircraft. Afghanistan and the Pacific. the potential northern leader. major world powers are too busy wrestling with global economic crisis to let this story out of its cyber realm. set up to further the development of Russia’s Northern Sea Route. Such was the case with the Mediterranean.ru/2012_04_19/72301024/) As global warming is thawing permafrost around the Earth's poles.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 42 Warming Bad – Arctic War Warming melts arctic ice that opens up new areas of conflict Kramnik 4/19/12 — (Ilya Kramnik.” Even more so. A satellite system called Arktika will allow for their uninterrupted communication with the "mainland. It was attended. with both Russia and NATO engaged in war games beyond the Arctic Circle. the US. In March. with 16. where it is engaged in a standoff with China. writer for The Voice of Russia. Russian President Medvedev has announced the creation of a special military force to defend Arctic claims. with their gas turbine engines. the recent game called Naval Warfare: Arctic Circle tells a story about navies and air forces of Russia and NATO fighting for Arctic dominance. Today. which rising temperatures have made more accessible than ever. for instance building twenty frontier posts to protect its polar reaches. The conflict of economic interests is already on the horizon and won’t probably be resolved any soon. The Air Forces also trained in Russia’s northern reaches. currently planning on boosting its Arctic infrastructure. Kebnekaise. Russian General Vladimir Shamanov declared . The meeting took place at a time when the icy region was buzzing with activity. Arctic’s natural riches. No one wants a “Hot War. The Russian military kept apace. But no one knows what the nearest future has in store for us. killing five servicemen. Its 200th motor rifle brigade from Murmansk tested the T-80 tanks. However. as well as Air Defense planes. In the past. air forces and the so-called “Arctic brigades. or the Strait of Malacca. 13. only scientist and journalists seemed to be concerned about the “opening up” of the Arctic. the main arena of modern diplomatic conflicts. which are believed to be best-suited for the Arctic climate. which engaged and shot down over 150 air targets. among others.

S. military vessel and aircraft mobility and transit throughout the Arctic. including the Northwest Passage. lead to conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons.” This week. it affirmed as a priority to preserve U. The manoeuvres prompted a protest from Russia – which objected again in June after Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the Second World War. borders in the Arctic. navy and air force assets with ship-based helicopters able to drop troops anywhere. and that Russia’s submarine fleet would increase its “operational radius. These claims. In March.000 troops. together with those of other allied NATO countries – Canada. summarizes the situation bluntly. and Norway – could. He warns us that “From those in the international peace and security sector. has put forward new military capabilities to protect Canadian sovereignty claims in the Arctic. As Michael Hamel-Greene has pointed out. Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets. Iceland. on the eve of Obama’s inauguration. About 12. east coast for the first time in 15 years.000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs.S.6 In January. 50 aircraft and several warships were involved. Jayantha Dhanapala. has greatly contributed to the instability we are seeing today. a northern military training base and a deep water port. . Danish fighter planes could be patrolling Greenlandic airspace. particularly the upgrading of the Thule Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radar for ballistic missile defence. as well. deep concerns are being expressed over the fact that two nuclear weapon states – the United States and the Russian Federation. which together own 95 per cent of the nuclear weapons in the world – converge on the Arctic and have competing claims. that country held a major Arctic military practice involving 7. The Bush administration’s disastrous eight years in office. The Canadian government. Denmark. and foresaw greater capabilities to protect U.Gonzaga Debate Institute 43 Warming Core that Russian troops would step up training for Arctic combat. if unresolved.S. President Bush issued a National Security Presidential Directive on Arctic Regional Policy. partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. The Arctic has figured in this renewed interest in Cold War weapons systems. Last year. including proposed ice-capable ships. Denmark last week released an all-party defence position paper that suggests the country should create a dedicated Arctic military contingent that draws on army. two Russian attack submarines were spotted off the U. President of Pugwash and former UN Under-Secretary for Disarmament Affairs. particularly its decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty and deploy missile defence interceptors and a radar in Eastern Europe.

and his co-workers found that the probability of armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa was about 50% higher than normal in some unusually warm years since 1981. resource scarcity. To overcome this problem.com/news/2011/110824/full/news. We propose an additional.. pages 1-10.” Nature. staff writer. published online on 8/24/11. “Climate cycles drive civil war. A very clear signal appeared in the data.g. The results were unaffected by any modification to the statistical set-up of the analysis — such as excluding particularly crisis-prone African countries — which the team performed to confirm the robustness of their findings. judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation..501. Hsiang suggests. rather than local. one-fifth of the 240 or so civil conflicts since 1950 could be linked to the 4–7-year climate cycle originating in the southern Pacific. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. ScienceDirect) Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.” accessed online. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e. Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena. Universität Leipzig.g. Issue 1. Christopher Cohrs.html) Previous studies have focused on the question of how anthropogenic climate change might increase conflict risk. United Kingdom. Institut für Psychologie.” Journal of Environmental Psychology. “Climate cycles drive civil war. Africa and the Asia–Pacific region. published online on 8/24/11. Lehrstuhl für Sozialpsychologie. Thomas Kessler.nature.. Germany.nature. including parts of Australia — and regions only weakly affected by it. Solomon Hsiang. Climate change doubles risk of civil conflict Schiermeier 11 — (Quirin Schiermeier. Institut für Psychologie. J. In many cases. Volume 32.” accessed online. Germany. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change. group during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. The team found that the risk of annual civil conflict doubles. “International weekly journal of science. “Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies.2011. and his colleagues opted to look at how historical changes in the global. A 2009 study2 by economist Marshall Burke at the University of California. from 3% to 6%.2011. journal published on 3/12. School of Psychology.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 44 Warming Bad – Authoritarianism Climate change leads to authoritarianism – studies prove Fritsche 12 (Immo Fritsche. published online on 9/24/11. in countries of the ENSO-affected. http://www. http://www. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e. They then searched for a link between climate and armed conflicts that arose in the first group between 1950 and 2004. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. conflicts that might have broken out anyway may have occurred earlier owing to the effects of El Niño. “International weekly journal of science. Germany.g.html) Civil conflicts have been by far the most common form of organized political violence in recent decades. the study concludes. .” Nature. or 'teleconnected'. Berkeley. Abteilung Sozialpsychologie. Queen’s University Belfast. climate affect conflict risk1. migration). Judith Bauer. Hsiang says. staff writer. Climate change could link to one fifth of global civil conflicts Schiermeier 11 — (Quirin Schiermeier. and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes.com/news/2011/110824/full/news. criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes.501. Clear signal The team designed a 'quasi-experiment' for which they divided the world into regions strongly affected by the ENSO — the tropical parts of South America. But critics point to statistical problems — for instance when linking possibly random local temperature and rainfall variations with outbreaks of civil war — that may have resulted in a false appearance of causality. an economist currently at Princeton University in New Jersey. subtle. Globally.

Democracy Now!) We move to another issue around climate. CARBONDIOXIDE— GREENHOUSEGAS According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. and the pace is accelerating. a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island broke off the Thwaites Glacier. the horizontal spread of the ocean is about 100 feet.) For every vertical foot that the ocean rises. and it causes population migrations fueling political instability and failed states. In fact. The recent spread of the West Nile virus carried by mosquitoes may be a harbinger of things to come. In 2000. Sunlight easily passes through carbon dioxide. by 2100 sea levels could rise by 3 to 6 feet.” 8/29/11.S. the scientists find that El Niño. Global warming is real. acting as a canary in a mineshaft. co-creator of string field theory. a piece the size of Connecticut broke off. Some scientists have said that the UN report was too cautious in interpreting the data. parts of the northern polar ice caps disappear during the summer months. doubles the risk of civil war in up to 90 countries. sea levels would rise about twenty feet around the world. it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward. Hence.55. which brings hot and dry conditions to tropical nations. This figure jumped to seventy-one square miles in 2008. tropical diseases are gradually migrating northward.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 45 Climate change impacts stability – doubles likelihood of civil war and may have caused one fifth of global conflicts Goodman 11 — interview conducted by Amy Goodman. Within the last century. It is now indisputable that the earth is heating up. escalating to nuclear war and extinction Kaku . levels of carbon dioxide are rising dramatically. As the earth heats up. sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century. But as sunlight heats up the earth. containing 4. (summa cum laude) from Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. there are links between the climate phenomenon El Niño and outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru. The polar ice cap may vanish permanently by the end of the century. “Global Warming & War: New Study Finds Link Between Climate Change and Conflict. (If all the Greenland ice were somehow to melt. lead author of a study linking civil wars with global climate change. 1995. are gradually breaking off. which have been stable for tens of thousands of years. In 2002. an early warning system. the earth’s temperature rose 1. Usually.pdf PB) By midcentury.3° F. Temperatures started to be reliably recorded in the late 1700s. sea levels would rise about 180 feet around the world. The signs are unmistakable everywhere we look: The thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by an astonishing 50 percent in just the past fifty years. mainly caused by the expansion of seawater as it heats up. Much of this Arctic ice is just below the freezing point. it creates infrared radiation. According to the report. and may disappear entirely during summer as early as 2015. feedbacks cause rapid escalation. He received a B. The study was published online last week in the journal Nature. UN officials are especially concerned about the spread of malaria northward. “A Daily Independent Global News Hour. 2000 to 2009 was the hottest decade. El Niño may help account for a fifth of conflicts worldwide during the past 50 years .000 years .” an interview with Solomon Hsiang. which does not pass back through carbon dioxide . So gradually the map of the earth’s coastlines will change. 11 Michio Kaku. According to the United Nations. the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full swing: global warming. Greenland’s ice shelves shrank by twenty-four square miles in 2007. Likewise. A new study has found that war is associated with global climate.) Large chunks of Antarctica’s ice. But with the shortening of the winter season. sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by 2100. They are at the highest levels in 100. the eggs of many harmful insects die every winter when the soil freezes. According to scientists at the University of Colorado’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. Today. floating on water. scientists have concluded with 90 percent confidence that global warming is driven by human activity. it is acutely sensitive to small temperature variations of the oceans. and postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. and 2010 ranked among the hottest years ever recorded.200 square miles of ice. host of Democracy Now!. (“Physics of the Future” http://213. a branch of string theory.52/ebooks/physics/Physics%20of%20the%20Future. disrupting the world’s weather by altering the flow of ocean and air currents around the planet. especially the production of carbon dioxide via the burning of oil and coal.83. (If all Antarctica’s ice were to melt. Already. 2005.

4 billion tons of carbon dioxide were sent into the air from fossil fuel burning and also deforestation. Each hollow tube had been drilled deep into the ice of a glacier. We also see a somewhat similar effect in greenhouses or cars. I once gave a lecture in Reykjavik. By chemically analyzing the air in these bubbles. so does the other. The sunlight warms the air. Most important. scientists have been able to extract air bubbles that are thousands of years old. The carbon dioxide content within each air bubble is easily measured. we find the net amount of energy that is . a 185-fold jump. Normally. At first. But with the addition of human activity. all I could see was a long column of white ice. I could see that the ice had stripes made of tiny bands of different colors. Without civilization producing carbon dioxide. it captured samples from snows that had fallen thousands of years ago. These ice cores were then cut in various slices so they could be examined. soil. Today. As the temperature falls. by measuring the amount of the heavier isotopes. This is highly unusual. (In 1900. The energy from sunlight cannot escape back into space and is trapped. they found a sudden spike in temperature and carbon dioxide content happening just within the last century. one can use them to determine how old that layer is.000 years.) VISIT TO ICELAND The rise in temperature is not a fluke. one can measure the amount of sunlight that lands on every square foot of the earth’s surface. Ominously. Scientists can also calculate the amount of heat that is reflected into outer space from the earth. one can calculate the temperature at which the water molecule condensed. When I visited their laboratory. the carbon dioxide content of the air was 270 parts per million (ppm). I had to pass through thick refrigerator doors. these scientists have come to some important conclusions. at first all you see is snow and jagged rock. like two roller coasters moving together. the world consumed 150 million barrels of oil. 9. But in reality. where ice cores are being analyzed. When your airplane lands in Reykjavik. They found that temperature and carbon dioxide levels have oscillated in parallel. I saw tiny. and vegetation. But calculating the temperature of the air when the ice was first deposited is more difficult. I could see racks and racks containing long metal tubes. Once inside. scientists can reconstruct the temperature and carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere going back more than 600. the capital of Iceland. after painfully analyzing the contents of thousands of ice cores. Soon. When one curve rises or falls. and not natural cycles. Water molecules can contain different isotopes. even before the rise of human civilization. The remainder will stay in the air for decades to come. There are other ways to show that this sudden spike is caused by human activity. we can show that there should be a sudden spike in both temperature and carbon dioxide. As the tube penetrated the ice. such as the soot emitted from a volcanic eruption. When I peered into one slice under a microscope. I shuddered to realize that I was seeing air bubbles that were deposited tens of thousands of years ago. but is a direct indicator of human activity. resembling the bleak landscape of the moon. I could carefully examine the icy contents of each.) Finally. microscopic bubbles. Some of the ice layers contain markers indicating important events. it has soared to 387 ppm. it jumped to 28 billion barrels. scientists analyze the water in the bubble. But upon closer examination. By drilling deep into the ancient ice of the Arctic. heating up the earth. since most fluctuations occur slowly over millennia. I had a chance to see this firsthand. they will be able to determine the weather conditions going back a million years. (To do this. and had the privilege of visiting the University of Iceland. Computer simulations are now so advanced that we can simulate the temperature of the earth with and without the presence of human activity. Hence. This unusual spike is not part of this natural heating process. When the tubes were removed. the amount of carbon dioxide generated has grown explosively. heavier water isotopes condense faster than ordinary water molecules. with input equaling output. In 2000. Scientists have to use a variety of techniques to date them. we find a relatively flat temperature curve. we expect these two amounts to be equal. Before the Industrial Revolution. but only 5 billion tons were recycled into the oceans. each about an inch and a half in diameter and about ten feet long. Although barren and forbidding. scientists claim. which is prevented from escaping by the glass. as we can see by analyzing ice cores. Lastly. Since the dates of these eruptions are known to great accuracy. which is kept at freezing temperatures. especially in the last century.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 46 so easily. The predicted spike fits the actual spike perfectly. the terrain makes the Arctic an ideal place to analyze the climate of the earth hundreds of thousands of years ago. in synchronization over many thousands of years. In 2008.

Tundra covers nearly 9 million square miles of land in the Northern Hemisphere. done by the Global Business Network. nations. Unfortunately. 1. when faced with the prospect of the influx of millions of desperate people. chaos could spread around the world due to global warming. with one of the highest population densities. but in September 1998. Even if some cities can be salvaged. up to 160 million people could be driven out of their homes. Coastal cities may disappear. with Wall Street underwater. may resort to nuclear weapons . Then if we calculate the amount of energy being produced by human activity. home to 17 million people. the economy grinds to a halt. “Envision Pakistan. a country regularly flooded by storms even without global warming. sparking one of the greatest migrations in human history. confided to me the details of this scenario. As millions of refugees cross national borders. India. where the Mekong Delta is particularly vulnerable. In a major crisis in Bangladesh. Scientists have created pictures of what our coastal cities will look like at midcentury and beyond if sea levels continue to rise. the melting of the tundra in the Arctic regions may release millions of tons of methane gas from rotting vegetation. even if we were to suddenly stop producing any carbon dioxide. If millions are flooded out of their homes in Vietnam. But one-fourth of the city will also be underwater. paralyzing the subway system and trains to New Jersey. and this poses an enormous . Other cities may be deemed hopeless and allowed to vanish under the ocean. human activity is causing the current heating of the earth. Large parts of Manhattan may have to be evacuated.000 miles of roads were destroyed. Another country that would be devastated by a rise in sea level is Vietnam. This was one of the worst natural disasters in modern history. so countries could descend into the nightmare of looting. In this desperate situation. The Mekong Delta will also be flooded with salt water. Although it has made significant gains in the last few decades. there is still the danger that large storms can send surges of water into a city. and mass rioting breaks out. leaving 30 million people homeless almost overnight. In a worst-case scenario. containing vegetation frozen since the last Ice Age tens of thousands of years ago. the situation could be dire. many will flock to Ho Chi Minh City seeking refuge. creating mass migrations of people. rioting. paralyzing its infrastructure. founder of the Global Business Network and a principal author of the Pentagon study. but with 1/120 of the land area. we find a perfect match. and China—all armed with nuclear weapons—skirmishing at their borders over refugees. Half the rice in Vietnam is grown in the Mekong Delta. With transportation flooded. this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. (It has a population of 161 million. He told me that the biggest hot spot would be the border between India and Bangladesh. the world witnessed in horror a preview of what may become commonplace. This tundra contains more carbon dioxide and methane than the atmosphere.” the report said. Tensions could rapidly rise as borders collapse. comparable to that of Russia. For example. Hence. by midcentury. Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to the ocean. local governments are paralyzed. it is still one of the poorest nations on earth. and arable land. Massive flooding submerged two-thirds of the nation. that showed that. and much of it will be flooded permanently by rising sea levels. Most of the country is flat and at sea level. and the Nile Delta in Egypt. 11 percent of the entire population would be displaced if sea levels rise by three feet by midcentury. Natural calamities occur there almost every year. and chaos. For example. access to shared rivers. Schwartz sees that nations may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. As a result. and 6. Governments will have to decide which of their great cities and capitals are worth saving and which are beyond hope. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study. According to the World Bank. Peter Schwartz. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated three hot spots for potential disaster: Bangladesh. the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Some cities may be saved via a combination of sophisticated dikes and water gates.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 47 currently heating the earth. in 1992 a huge storm surge flooded Manhattan.000 were killed. the gas that has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warming for decades to come. The worst situation is that of Bangladesh. this country of 87 million people could face a collapse of its main foodgrowing area. permanently destroying the fertile soil of the area.) About 50 percent of the land area will be permanently flooded if sea levels rise by three feet. governments could lose all authority and collapse. we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. By midcentury. in a worst-case scenario.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 48 threat to the world’s weather. Methane gas. The release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to rapidly rise. which will cause even more methane gas to be released. moreover. but it causes much more damage than carbon dioxide. It does not stay in the atmosphere as long. . is a much deadlier greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. causing a runaway cycle of global warming.

lets the public see the CCP for what it really is: with evil filling its every cell. But we have never. which remembers that 1989 prodemocracy movement that saw thousands of students. The “speech. That would mean about 50 million tonnes less grain in the current tight supply situation and a potential for further inflation. chemical.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 49 Warming Bad – CCP Stability Climate change threatens the stability of the CCP.” Song Tingmin. the CCP intends to fight all of mankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. Meteorological experts say that global warming would exacerbate things as a one-degree rise in temperature could aggravate ground water evaporation by seven percent.net/news. The CCP. chemical.” free of all disguises.” The theme is murderous and utterly evil. We did witness in China beggars who demanded money from people by threatening to stab themselves with knives or prick their throats on long nails. a decline in domestic grain production could lead to more price hikes. designed to chart the party’s policy and seal the legacy of its current leaders.¶ “Given the tightened food supply in the international market. Contributor. vice-president of the China National Association of Grain told the China Daily.¶ A surge in food prices saw China’s consumer price index (CPI) rise to a 10-year high of 5. And that is the theme of the “speech. 2007 Inter Press News Service “ECONOMY-CHINA: Global Warming Fuels Inflation. coupled with seven or eight hundred million Chinese. Economists say the August inflation rose even higher on the back of soaring pork costs. to achieve its ends. workers and intellectuals out in street protests was triggered by public anger over inflation. which leads to massive protests Inter Press Service 2007 (September 4. the bloody confession affirmed the CCP’s bloodiness: a monstrous murderer. Epoch Times. would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans.¶ Zheng Guogan. Extinction Renxing 5 (San. seen a rogue who blackmails the world to die with it by wielding biological.¶ Drought is already affecting 22 of China’s 31 provinces.epochtimes. who has killed 80 million Chinese people. and nuclear weapons.asp?idnews=39144 NMS) Yet government officials now fear that the combined effects of climate change and inflation pressures could destabilise public mood ahead of the 17th Communist Party Congress – a five-yearly meeting. now plans to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives. http://english. and nuclear weapons in its attempt to postpone its life. . until now.html) Since the Party’s life is “above all else.” it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological. Anyhow. far above the government’s upper target of 3 percent for the whole year.¶ The social dimensions of such leaps in inflation are not lost on a government.6 percent in July. that disregards human life. head of the State Meteorological Administration forecasts global warming will cut China’s annual grain harvest by up to 10 percent.com/news/5-8-4/30931.” http://ipsnews.

A crisis might be triggered by any number of factors.org/china_superpower_or_basket_case/ NMS) In light of these realities. could be unacceptably painful for a large part of the population. It begins a brutal campaign of violently repressing demonstrators. and peasants gather again in Tiananmen Square to protest economic conditions and perceived political non-responsiveness.¶ Systemic crisis could then lead to an open challenge to the regime. co-director of Institute for Foreign Policy’s Foreign Policy in Focus. food. the West is overly focused on the Chinese “emerging superpower” threat and giving far too little attention to the real risks and foreign policy challenges that would flow from a serious breakdown in Chinese economic. A dramatic slowdown in the Chinese or world economy could disrupt the lives of millions of factory workers. Even with continuing economic progress.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 50 XT – CCP Food shortages from warming will threaten the CCP and lead to violent protests and draw in other major powers Feffer and Bleicher. whether by dramatic price increases or some other mechanism. Serious rationing of water. When urban professionals start to join them. leaving them in a state of chaos. factory workers. Overseas Chinese and major U. A widespread farmers’ strike might cut off food to the urban centers. The loss of individual savings from a stock market or banking collapse could fuel popular discontent among the new urban elite. banks and corporations with investments and supply lines at stake argue that the situation is too dangerous to ignore. and Professor of Law at Georgetown 2008 (John and Samuel. The demonstrations do not stop. or social structures. . May 8 2008. Here are two scenarios to consider. and various groups ask for outside help to protect foreign residents and foreign investment and to end the wholesale disregard of human rights. students. arresting domestic and foreign media representatives. the central government calls in the army. or energy.S. entirely disregarding the legal system. Foreign Policy in Focus “China: Superpower or Basket Case?” http://fpif. and purging uncooperative members of the Party and civilian government. political. widening income disparities could generate increasingly serious opposition in rural areas. In one.

globalresearch. each step in the Caucasus drama has put the conflict on a yet higher plane of danger. severe drought. Nuclear Primacy: the larger strategic danger Most in the West are unaware how dangerous the conflict over two tiny provinces in a remote part of Eurasia has become.and the water coverage as well as surface runoff will also alter in the region. with around 60% of the population living in rural areas. This is what gives the seemingly obscure fight over two provinces the size of Luxemburg the potential to become the 1914 Sarajevo trigger to a new nuclear war by miscalculation . Kazakhstan is the only exception with agriculture accounting for only 8% of GDP (but still around 33% of total employment). or even Europe. 2009 “Climate Change in Central Asia” http://www. Rather.ca/index. and agriculture accounting for approximately 25% of GDP on average. Central Asia significantly contributes to global warming by generating large volume of GHG emissions. social and political tensions. occupying more than 40% of the total labor force. This is the issue where Russia has drawn a deep line in the sand. Climate change poses serious threats to the region’s rural population. . it can not compensate the negative impacts of more intense droughts and floods. In 1914 it was the "Guns of August" that initiated the Great War. which can lead to accelerated rural-urban migration. However rising concentration of carbon in the atmosphere could benefit certain crop yields (e. Temperature will rise in average. Despite the enormous progress of scientific knowledge and technological developments in recent decades. to Clinton and most aggressively. flood conditions.g. water and agricultural sectors are likely to be the most sensitive to the negative effects of global warming. As mad as this sounds. “The Caucasus —Washington Risks nuclear war by miscalculation” http://www. changes of precipitation. The next step will no longer be just about the Caucasus. a military threat that is aggressive in the extreme. This time the Guns of August 2008 could be the detonator of World War III and a nuclear holocaust of unspeakable horror. and soil degradation. 10/11/08. Put simply. weather is still the major factor in agricultural productivity. January 16. Agriculture is a significant sector of the economy in the Central Asian countries.html NMS] Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change not only in Central Asia but worldwide.even if Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are stabilized at current levels . agricultural productivity in Central Asia might suffer severe losses because of high temperature. Since the end of the Cold War in the beginning of the 1990’s NATO and most directly Washington have systematically pursued what military strategists call Nuclear Primacy. It is acknowledged that the impacts of climate change are highly location specific. surface water access and extreme weather conditions. The forceful US effort to push Georgia as well as Ukraine into NATO would present Russia with the spectre of NATO literally coming to its doorstep. Central Asia war would trigger WWIII with Russia F. What is left out of most all media coverage is the strategic military security context of the Caucasus dispute. Currently the two most significant crops in Central Asia are cotton and wheat. and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Global Research Associate.php?context=va&aid=9790 So far. increased urban unemployment and consequently.com/globalwarming_climate_change_in_central_asia. and untenable for Russian national security. it has been explicit Pentagon policy through the last three Presidents from father Bush in 1990. the side with missile defense has "won" the nuclear war. it is US insistence on pushing NATO and its missile defense right up to Russia’s door. George W. and agricultural sector is among the major contributors. understandably so. International Green Week. if one of two opposing nuclear powers is able to first develop an operational anti-missile defense. In Central Asia. The trigger for such a war is not Georgia’s right to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia. which may endanger food security and agriculturally-based livelihood systems in the region.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 51 Warming Bad – Central Asian Stability Global warming causes Central Asian instability due to a decrease in agricultural yields and the economy TR 2009 *Technical Reform. that can dramatically weaken a potential counter-strike by the opposing side’s nuclear arsenal. maize and sorghum). William Engdhal. Bush. The major factors related to climate change affecting agricultural productivity in Central Asia: increasing temperature. It is foreseen that due to global warming. even primitive.irthebest.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 52 .

that scientists do find an effect of climate change on the distribution of Lyme disease in their data. Warming. assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. Not only do areas of high population density facilitate disease transmission. but are not yet sure of the reasons behind such results. “There’s been a great interest in climate advocacy groups to look for negative effects of climate change on health. and recently interest has been evolving among climatologists. Indirect effects are linked to how humans manage water given increased uncertainty in the water supply caused by climate change. Kitron said that in order to mitigate the effects of global warming on disease.com/news/2012/apr/11/global-warming-may-intensify-disease/) There may be more to fear from global warming than environmental changes. is more difficult to examine and measure.” Diuk-Wasser added. virus development and mosquito biting rates. creating crowded slums of refugees. “One possible way in which temperature may limit tick populations is by increasing the length of their life cycle from two to three years in the north.” Diuk-Wasser said.” she said.” Diuk-Wasser said. Mutated disease cause extinction Discover ‘00 (“Twenty Ways the World Could End” by Corey Powell in Discover Magazine. and policymakers alike. that it is difficult to ‘tease out’ a role of climate change. http://www. 2012. a tick-borne chronic disease. By contrast.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 53 Warming Bad – Disease Warming causes disease spread Adair 12 ( KIRSTEN ADAIR. though she said it will probably increase. The direct or indirect effects of global warming might intensify the prevalence of tuberculosis.” Diuk-Wasser said that raising awareness about the public health effects of global warming might aid climate control efforts. since tuberculosis epidemics historically have followed major population and environmental upheavals. “Climate change could be reverting that and therefore increasing production of ticks. Diuk-Wasser said. This pattern of vulnerability holds for both tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS. since studies have found that this motivates people to adopt measures to curb climate change. he said. professor of medicine and epidemiology and public health at the Yale School of Medicine. said Maria Diuk-Wasser. HIV/AIDS. but the threat of increased health risks is likely to futher motivate the public to combat global warming. and the floods associated with it. are like to increase rates of both malaria and dengue. Wednesday. the public must turn its attention to water management and an increased understanding of the connecting between “global processes and local impact. vector biologists. “The environmental changes wrought by global warming will undoubtedly result in major ecologic changes that will alter patterns and intensity of some infectious diseases. “The field is multi-sourced. increasing the incidence of both the acquisition and spread of the diseases. global warming may increase the infection rates of mosquito-borne diseases by creating a more mosquitofriendly habitat. April 11. While the study of global warming itself is relatively new. dengue and Lyme disease. a debilitating viral disease found in tropical areas and transmitted by mosquito bites. The Yale Climate and Engery Institute recently won a grant to study the direct and indirect effects of climate change on dengue transmission in Colombia.” said Gerald Friedland. He said these potential effects are not surprising. disease epidemiologists. global warming will lead to higher incidence and more intense versions of disease. but their residents are more likely to be vulnerable to disease because of malnutrition and poverty. ecologists.yaledailynews. The effect of global warming on the incidence of Lyme disease. CONTRIBUTING REPORTER for Daily Yale News. where it is colder. Global warming may affect other diseases in even more complicated ways.com/2000/oct/featworld) . however. “The direct effects of temperature increase are an increase in immature mosquito development. they said.” said Uriel Kitron. Friedland said. research on the impact of global warming on disease is an even more recent endeavor that draws on the skills and expertise of a wide variety of scientists and researchers. he explained. October 2000. Global warming will likely cause major population upheavals. The transmission of the Lyme bacterium is so complex. which increase contact rates (biting) with humans. professor and chair of the environmental studies department at Emory University. because it made the potential impact of global warming more personal. According to several leading climate scientists and public health researchers. http://discovermagazine. though.

International travel means diseases can spread faster than ever. About 12.000 years ago. Germs and people have always coexisted. an infectious disease expert who recently left the Minnesota Department of Health. Intensive agriculture and land development is bringing humans closer to animal pathogens. mortality from infectious disease in the United States rose 58 percent. which humans helped transport as they migrated into the New World. Old diseases such as cholera and measles have developed new resistance to antibiotics. reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. the AIDS epidemic has produced a similar death toll and is still going strong. The Black Plague killed one European in four during the 14th century. but occasionally the balance gets out of whack. a sudden wave of mammal extinctions swept through the Americas." The grimmest possibility would be the emergence of a strain that spreads so fast we are caught off guard or that resists all chemical means of control. our fellow organisms might be up to the task. described the situation as "like trying to swim against the current of a raging river. influenza took at least 20 million lives between 1918 and 1919. .Gonzaga Debate Institute 54 Warming Core If Earth doesn't do us in. Michael Osterholm. From 1980 to 1992. Ross MacPhee of the American Museum of Natural History argues the culprit was extremely virulent disease. perhaps as a result of our stirring of the ecological pot.

Diseases like leishmaniasis often are not tracked rigorously in this country and are classified as neglected. 2002). In 2010. "There's a substantial but hidden burden of tropical disease in the United States. 2000). excrement and dirty water stemming from substandard housing and sanitation. notably the global distributions of malaria (Lindsay and Martens. not every outbreak is imported. the United States has been largely isolated from them. Rogers and Randolph. almost 1 billion people are afflicted with more than one tropical disease.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3377959/) Models have been developed for forecasting the impact of global climate change on mosquito-borne diseases. Many modeling forecasts are limited by uncertainties in the extent of global climate change as a result of the inability to accurately predict major drivers such as future emission . often closer to the equator." According to the Monroe County Health Department. Immigrants from endemic regions are also bringing in these diseases. where the disease's incidence has risen fourfold over the past 30 years." said Peter Hotez. wetter and poorer areas of the world. Fla. The infection rate rose to 5 percent. 2000). McMichael et al.com/article. 2000. according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). and as tropical vacationers return home.. However. for one week.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 55 XT – Disease Warming spreads tropical disease everywhere Irfan 12 (Umfair Irfan. According to the World Health Organization. 2006) were generally predicted to increase in coastal areas of northern and eastern Australia. which CDC said indicated "a serious risk of transmission. dengue emerged in south Florida and infected more than 60 people. One model used current temperature. rainfall. Githeko et al. While these models did not specifically address changes in coastal zones. U. Consequently. unlike vector-borne illnesses like Lyme disease that are monitored.nlm. June 4. "We keep the public aware that they need to be dumping standing water and wearing mosquito repellent. But Americans are traveling more. they may unwittingly bring back dangerous souvenirs. the transmission of malaria (Rogers and Randolph.ncbi. The outbreak may have been linked to travel from Latin America and the Caribbean. 2009) and dengue (Hales et al. with several Key West residents subsequently reporting infections. This model found surprisingly few changes. at Baylor College of Medicine in Texas. ticks and mosquitoes that spread these illnesses are moving north as rising temperatures make new areas more welcoming. 1998. the first such school in the United States. N. severe headaches and bleeding. 2000) and dengue (Hales et al. and future epidemics may come from within... It results in joint and muscle pain. Larger areas of northern and eastern Australia are expected to become more conducive for the transmission of dengue (McMichael et al. these diseases are spread through bites. 2002.. http://www. Puerto Rico faced the largest dengue epidemic in its history.. Illnesses like schistosomiasis. but predicted that some parts of the world that are presently free of malaria may be prone to a greater risk of malaria transmission while certain malaria-endemic areas will have a decreased risk of malaria transmission (Rogers and Randolph.. public information officer at the health department. particularly among people in poverty.nih. Chagas disease and dengue are endemic in warmer.. woman who traveled to Key West. The outbreak was first detected in a Rochester. Warming makes spreads disease – misquitos Surendran et al 12 (Ranjan Ramasamy and Sinnathamby Noble Surendran. reporter for Scientific America.cfm?id=exotic-diseases-warmer-climate-us-gain) Diseases once thought to be rare or exotic in the United States are gaining a presence and getting new attention from medical researchers who are probing how immigration. 2002) as a result of global climate change. the flies. and humidity ranges that permit malaria transmission to forecast malaria distribution in 2050 in a global climate change scenario (Rogers and Randolph.S. a scientific news agency. National Library of Medicine. National Center for Biotechnology Information. 2000. founding dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine. the first outbreak since 1934. Published online 2012 June 19. Dengue is caused by four closely related viruses spread by mosquitoes.. there hasn't been a confirmed dengue case in the Florida Keys since November 2010. limited access to care and the impacts of climate change are influencing their spread. 2006) and a greater proportion of the global population at risk of dengue (Hales et al. Caused by bacteria." explained Chris Tittle.. In 2009.Y. All the while.scientificamerican. some of which can lie dormant for years. parasites and viruses. 2012. http://www. Paaijmans et al.

” Enlarging upon these latter points. 2003). “increased temperatures can accelerate the fitness of parasites. Other factors such as the resilience of the geosphere and biosphere that are difficult to estimate precisely.. ENSO has been associated with a higher incidence of dengue in some countries.” which would enable them to “introduce diseases to novel habitats.. Alonso et al.php.. spreading as far as Africa.” and they note that “warming does not necessarily increase the fitness of all parasites.co2science. 2009). Global climate change has led to observable alterations in the global distribution of plants and animals with species adapted to warmer temperatures moving to higher latitudes (Root et al. Models however have an important role in highlighting potential problems and the need to develop measures to counter possible increases in disease transmission. Changes in wind patterns as a result of climate change are difficult to predict and likely to be locality-specific. 1999) and therefore cause more numerous epidemics of dengue. On the other hand.” and that “once temperature . Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. and it may be anticipated that mosquitoes will adapt to pollution with time. Global warming due to the greenhouse effect may increase the frequency of ENSO events (Timmermann et al. and regional characteristics. http://www. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) entails multi-annual cyclic changes in the temperature of the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences air temperature and rainfall in large areas of the bordering continents.” and in this regard they further note that “vital rates increase with temperature until some optimum is reached. "Global Warming and Animal Parasitic Diseases. transmission.. “these doomand-gloom scenarios do not necessarily apply to all taxa or all situations. 2003. the use of insecticide treated mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying of more effective insecticides (World Health Organization. 2010). The warming of surface sea temperatures in the western Indian Ocean due to short term fluctuations known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is associated with higher malaria incidence in the western Kenyan highlands (Hashizume et al. However.. and weaken hosts.” Last modified February 8. (2006)1 begin their analysis of the subject by asking “Will an increasingly warmer world necessarily become a sicker world?” T hey posed this question because.Gonzaga Debate Institute 56 Warming Core rates of greenhouse gases. Furthermore.” which is something climate alarmists frequently claim about mosquitoes and malaria. 2003). the considerable adaptability of mosquito vectors and their pathogens to changing environments are difficult to model..) One of the perceived great tragedies of CO2-induced global warming is that rising temperatures will increase the development. reduce recruitment bottlenecks for parasites during winter.. It can be expected that higher onshore wind velocities will tend to disperse mosquito populations further inland. or may respond unimodally to increasing temperatures (Stacey et al. 2011). However there is no unequivocal evidence yet that global climate change has already affected the distribution of a mosquito-borne disease in inland or coastal areas. Omumbo et al.” while further noting that “warmer temperatures may allow vector s of parasites to expand their range. and perhaps even masked an increase in transmission due to higher temperatures (Githeko et al. 2011. 2000. leading to a perfect storm of biological interactions that will raise the prevalence of parasitic disease among animals in the future. It seems quite likely that such improvements in malaria control measures worldwide have masked any tendency for the incidence of malaria to increase as a result of global climate change (Gething et al. notably in parts of Thailand in recent times (Tipayamongkholgul et al. 2012.org/subject/p/summaries/animalparasites. 2012 ). There have been very few studies on other primary climate changes like wind and atmospheric pollution that can also affect mosquito populations in coastal areas.. Atmospheric pollution will be higher in the vicinity of urban coastal areas. the four biologists and their statistician co-author write that the “virulence of parasites may not change. Thomas and Blanford. in their words. there is evidence that short term changes in global climate can influence the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. The gaps in knowledge in these areas need to be addressed. can also influence climate change parameters. Warming causes disease – parasites SPPI 12 (Science and Public Policy Institute. Chaves et al. The effects of short term ENSO and IOD events are a likely indication of the potential impacts of long term global climate change on mosquito-borne diseases that can also affect coastal zones. But is this really so? In a provocative paper analyzing the intricacies of this complex issue. Hall et al. may decrease. However it is clear that the incidence of malaria has decreased over the last decade in many countries due primarily to better case detection and treatment. and survival rates of parasites in general. as they continue. 2011. 2009).. The reports of increased incidence of malaria epidemics related to warmer temperatures in the Kenyan highlands have been controversial as changes in many other factors could have influenced malaria transmission in this area..

as they describe it.” Warming will increase our vulnerability to HIV/AIDs and will cause new.. “a host can use warmer temperatures to help defeat its parasites through behavioral modification of its thermal environment. The medical section of the University studying Diseases. 1989. Hall et al. Ostfeld and Holt. such as with malaria and dengue fever.¶ Although some evidence indicates that . Hall et al. Stacey et al.au/national/global-warming-set-to-fan-the-hiv-fire-20080430-29eh.. 2008 (April 29. he said.. they conclude that “longer-term response of the physiology of host-parasite systems to global warming becomes difficult to predict. Packer et al.¶ A leading professor of health and human rights. putting people with perilous immune systems at more risk of dying of HIV. with 16.” and that “the exact evolutionary trajectory of host-parasite systems in a warmer world may depend sensitively upon underlying genetic correlation structures and interactions between host genotypes. of the University of NSW. 2003. Lafferty. 1984. "And this would effect Australia too.000 new infections worldwide each day and the failure of research to produce a much-needed cure or vaccine. 2005.” and that “predators provide an important example” bec ause." said Prof Tarantola.." Prof Cooper said. due to address an HIV forum in Sydney. as well as contracting and transmitting new and unusual infections.html NMS) Climate change is the latest threat to the world's growing HIV epidemic. and cholera.” such that “in some host-parasite systems.com.¶ "It's a pretty grim situation.¶ He echoed the deep pessimism of 35 top British and US scientists who predicted this week that a vaccine would be at least 10 years and maybe even 20 years away. In such cases.med. Huey and Kingsolver. Age News“Global warming set to fan the HIV fire. but rapidly for others. 2003." Climate change can spread disease Harvard School of Public Health. Thomas and Blanford. 12 (Harvard School of Public Health 2012 http://chge. Just look at the horror that SARS and avian flu have caused.edu/topic/climate-change-and-infectious-disease PB) Many prevalent human infections. predators “can actually inhibit epidemics by selectively culling sick hosts and/or by maintaining host densities below levels required for parasites to persist (Hudson et al.theage.¶ Advertisement¶ "Climate change will trigger a chain of events which is likely to increase the stress on society and result in higher vulnerability to diseases including HIV. (1992)." Prof Cooper said. 2004). Duffey et al. drug resistant strains Age News. 2003.. are climate sensitive. for Hall et al.. 2004. director of the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research. (2003) on fungusgrasshopper associations in substantiation of this scenario. vital rates decline gradually with increasing temperature for some taxa.¶ Those problems had not gone away. this is in part because the disease is transmitted by mosquitoes which cannot survive if temperatures are too low. say Australian experts who warn of the "grim" outlook in the fight against the infectious disease. 2004. 2003. food scarcity worsens and climate change begins to affect those who were already dependent on survival economies". and the environment (Blanford et al. dengue fever. agreed environmental change would have a negative impact on HIV sufferers. the situation sometimes can be even more complex than this. has cautioned that global warming will indirectly make citizens of developing countries even more vulnerable to death and severe ill health from HIV/AIDS. parasite genotypes.¶ For others. as they elucidate.” http://news.” When all is said and done. therefore.¶ Prominent HIV scientist Professor David Cooper. Mitchell et al. In some cases.” citing the work of Carruthers et al.¶ "Climate change will lead to food scarcity and poorer nutrition. 1992. gender inequality and lack of access to essential services have made some populations more vulnerable than others.” But these considerations are not the end of the story either.Gonzaga Debate Institute 57 Warming Core exceeds this optimum. climate restricts where an infection can occur because it limits the distribution of other species that are required for disease transmission. Daniel Tarantola. 2005). 1993). because these infections could potentially spread. for the researchers note that “other species can profoundly shape the outcome of parasitism in host populations. and extra threats were lurking on the horizon "as the global economic situation deteriorates. including malaria. conclude that “global warming does not necessarily mean that disease prevalence will increase in all systems.¶ "I don't think we have any idea of how to harness a vaccine for this and we need a strong basic science breakthrough to get anywhere with it..”However."¶ The specialist said the HIV landscape was grim. a parasite’s optimum occurs at cooler temperatures than the optim um of its host.harvard." said Prof Tarantola. write that “warmer temperatures can also lead to shifts in temperature optima (Huey and Hertz.¶ "It was clear soon after the emergence of the HIV epidemic that discrimination.” Consequently. Blanford and Thomas (1999) and Blanford et al.

even after the temperature has warmed in the intervening century.Gonzaga Debate Institute 58 Warming Core warming may be causing malaria. Brown University. These infections most often cause diarrheal illness and flourish in the wake of heavy rainfalls as runoff from land enters into and may contaminate water supplies.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04188.html PB) The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150. 11/17/2205 http://www. have¶ raised concern that infectious disease may play a strong¶ role . Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change. including rigorous scientific tests to¶ determine which infectious diseases present a significant threat at the species level. An evidence-based¶ understanding of the role of infectious disease in species extinction and endangerment will help prioritize¶ conservation initiatives and protect global biodiversity.. recognition of the limitations¶ associated with the lack of baseline data for the role of infectious disease in species extinctions. Many pathogens that cause diarrheal disease reproduce more quickly in warmer conditions as well Climate Changes has claimed many lives and will continue to spread disease Patz. have been newly discovered. from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves. Here we review the growing evidence that climate–health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. coupled with the fear that an increased¶ frequency of outbreaks will occur in the future. occupied host¶ species or geographic extent. to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Smith 10/5/2006. Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are those caused by parasites and pathogens¶ that have recently increased in incidence. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations. for instance. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. or are caused by a newly evolved agent. Consider that malaria was once common over much of North America and Europe in the 19th century but is not routinely present on either continent today. However.brown. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes. to spread to higher elevations on mountains in East Africa. 06 (Katherine F. Recent studies suggest that infectious diseases in wildlife¶ populations are emerging at unusually high rates. Infectious disease was listed as a contributing factor in <4% of species¶ extinctions known to have occurred since 1500 (833 plants and animals) and as contributing to a species’¶ status as critically endangered in <8% of cases (2852 critically endangered plants and animals). the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events¶ The Spread of Disease leads to extinction Smith.edu/Research/Sax_Research_Lab/Documents/PDFs/evidemnce%20for%20role%20of%20disease. 05 (Jonathan A Patz. which are projected to warm disproportionately. high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance.000 lives annually. The diversity of EIDs afflicting wildlife.¶ More predictable as climate change unfolds is the spread of so-called waterborne infections. our findings underscore two important¶ limitations in the available evidence: uncertainty surrounding the threats to species survival and a temporal¶ bias in the data. owing to lack of long-term. Several initiatives could help overcome these obstacles.nature. We used the IUCN Red List of¶ Threatened and Endangered Species and literature indexed in the ISI Web of Science to assess the role of¶ infectious disease in global species loss. and improving surveillance programs for the detection of infectious disease. the¶ majority of available data supporting this contention is largely anecdotal. Although¶ infectious diseases appear to play a minor role in global species loss. Professor & Director of the Global Health Institute at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. combining¶ data with theory to discern the circumstances under which infectious disease is most likely to serve as an agent¶ of extinction. http://www.pdf PB) Infectious disease is listed among the top five causes of global species extinctions . predicting how climate change will ultimately influence the incidence of diseases transmitted by insects remains challenging.

In response to a growing interest in global species¶ loss and emerging infectious diseases. and shrink host ranges. 100 plant and 733 animal species are known to¶ have gone extinct. However. the most common causes appear to be habitat loss¶ and overexploitation (IUCN 2004). infectious diseases can¶ extirpate local populations.Gonzaga Debate Institute 59 Warming Core in species extinction. it is¶ not surprising that a survey of biologists listed infectious¶ disease among the top five causes of species extinctions¶ in the United States (Wilcove et al.¶ Given the effects of infectious diseases on wildlife. only 31 cases (3. Indeed. Whereas multiple causal factors are¶ typically listed as having contributed to a species’ extinction. Moreover. mediate community dynamics. it is worth investigating the generalization that infectious diseases play a¶ widespread role in species extinction. Infectious disease was infrequently listed as a contributing factor to species extinction or endangerment. at least in part. or when the infectious agent can¶ survive in the abiotic environment (de Castro & Bolker¶ 2005).7%) have been attributed. The¶ IUCN Red List (IUCN 2004) reports that in the past 500¶ years. the¶ majority of available data supporting this contention is¶ largely anecdotal. Of these 833 known¶ species extinctions. to infectious disease . reservoir hosts are available. 1998). epidemiological theory predicts that infectious diseases should only drive species¶ to extinction under specific circumstances—most commonly when pre-epidemic population size is small.

Environmental Correspondent for the Guardian. this year.php In Rome. http://miami. Burma. especially Bangladesh. president of the World Bank. which would help ease the pressure. Reuters reported Jacques Diouf. He said prices of all staple food had risen 80% in three years. India and Pakistan have curbed rice exports to ensure supplies for their own residents. and war Adam. "Current food price trends are likely to increase sharply both the incidence and depth of food insecurity.¶ Sir John Holmes. Japan and other rich countries provide funds. the social unrest induced by food prices in several countries will conflagrate into a global contagion.¶ Holmes is the latest senior figure to warn the world is facing a worsening food crisis. which has doubled the number of disasters from an average of 200 a year to 400 a year in the past two decades. Senior writer for the Vancouver Sun.4bn (£1.uk/environment/2008/apr/09/food. "It is becoming starker by the day. Vietnam.7bn) to meet higher prices.8%. It expects "sizable" increases in all the major Asian rice producing countries. Mozambique and Senegal¶ · Protests in Uzbekistan. Josette Sheeran.¶ The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation says rice production should rise by 12m tonnes. Bolivia and Indonesia¶ UN staff in Jordan also went on strike for a day this week to demand a pay rise in the face of a 50% hike in prices." . We are seeing food on the shelves but people being unable to afford it. director of the UN World Food Programme. which officials say are jeopardising the programme's ability to continue feeding 73 million people worldwide.indymedia. while Asian countries such as Cambodia.¶ Robert Zoellick. the UN's top humanitarian official warned yesterday after two days of rioting in Egypt over the doubling of prices of basic foods in a year and protests in other parts of the world.” Vancouver Sun. China. leaving no country -.co.¶ "The security implications [of the food crisis] should also not be underestimated as food riots are already being reported across the globe. 2008 (David.5bn to £1.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 60 Warming Bad – Food Prices Warming causes rising food prices which will lead to global unrest. Stephen Hume.¶ Officials in the Philippines have warned that people hoarding rice could face economic sabotage charges. India.org/news/2008/04/10852. He said food scarcity and soaring fuel prices would compound the damaging effects of global warming. while fast-food outlets are being pressed to offer half-portions of rice. Too.guardian. or 1." India's finance minister was more direct. Indonesia. riots. "Unless we act fast for a global consensus on the price spiral. A moratorium is being considered on converting agricultural land for housing or golf courses.developed or otherwise -. each day brings greater risk of global famine. China." Diouf said.¶ As well as this week's violence in Egypt. April 8. Europe.unscathed. "Naturally people won't be sitting dying of starvation.unitednations NMS) Rising food prices could spark worldwide unrest and threaten political stability. Prices have risen 40% on average globally since last summer. Food crisis triggers global war. "I'm surprised that I have not been summoned to the UN Security Council. said "many more people will suffer and starve" unless the US." Holmes said. undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs and the UN's emergency relief coordinator. 4/16/2008. 2008 The Guardian “Food price rises threaten global security – UN” http://www. warning that with 37 countries already in crisis." Palaniappan Chidambaram said. head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization."¶ He added that the biggest challenge to humanitarian work is climate change."¶ The programme has launched an appeal to boost its aid budget from $2. and that 33 countries faced unrest because of the price rises. the rising cost and scarcity of food has been blamed for:¶ · Riots in Haiti last week that killed four people¶ · Violent protests in Ivory Coast¶ · Price riots in Cameroon in February that left 40 people dead¶ · Heated demonstrations in Mauritania. We are seeing more urban hunger than ever before. Yemen. the Philippines and Thailand. said last month: "We are seeing a new face of hunger. “World Food Crisis Threatens Rich Nations (That's Us). they will react.9bn to $3. told a conference in Dubai that escalating prices would trigger protests and riots in vulnerable nations.

26 NMS) At lower latitudes. SPM} _ Globally. . but above this it is projected to decrease (medium confidence). December 12-17-2007. which would increase the risk of hunger (medium confidence). the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3°C. crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1 to 2°C).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 61 XT – Food Warming reduces global food production.4. which leads to global starvation IPCC 2007 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. {WGII 5. especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions.

¶ Trenberth recently published his own paper in Science about the link between human-induced climate change and increased hurricane intensity and rainfall.S. a marine physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.¶ Hurricanes and thunderstorms are climate regulating mechanisms for removing heat from the surface of oceans and land upwards and into space. deep pool of very warm water that served as the storm’s high-octane fuel. there has to be a corresponding increase either in the numbers or intensity of storms. . head of the climate analysis section of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. However when it crossed over into the Gulf of Mexico. That extra heat translates into an average intensity or power of these storms that is also likely to be 15 to 20 percent higher.¶ The link between the global rise in sea surface temperatures and increased hurricane intensity is quite strong . Computer models showed that continent-sized super-storms with winds averaging 600 kilometres per hour could be produced if oceans warmed to an incredible 45 to 50 degrees C. Webster told IPS.¶ “Warmer sea surface temperatures have increased the amount of water vapour.5 degrees C warmer than average – and that’s why double the normal number of hurricanes and tropical storms have been forecast.S.¶ The largest increases in the number of intense hurricanes occurred in the North Pacific. released another study in Science showing that major storms have increased in intensity and duration by a whopping 70 percent in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific Oceans since the 1970s. known as hyperstorms Leahy Environmental Journalist. with slightly smaller increases in the North Atlantic Ocean.¶ Currently.S. and the additional heat provides the extra energy to generate more powerful hurricanes and cyclones. Such temperatures are impossible today barring a massive meteor strike or gigantic underwater volcano eruption.” Trenberth said. Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Florida as a Category 1. 2005 (Stephen. Inter Press News Agency “ENVIRONMENT: The Dawn of the Hypercane?” http://www.5C on average. the fifteenth named storm of the hurricane season – which still has 10 more weeks to run.¶ It’s important to note that Emanuel. Tim Barnett.” he said.¶ The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years.¶ Over the last 40 years. the top 300 metres of the world’s oceans have warmed about 0. a leading hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.¶ “Our estimate is that rainfall from Katrina was about seven percent enhanced by global warming. With the extra heat that is trapped in the atmosphere and oceans by global warming. published a study that provided clear evidence that emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels was responsible for ocean warming. A Category 1 storm has winds blowing continuously above 110 kilometres an hour: A Category 5 has continuous winds above 250 kilometres per hour. Katrina weakened to a Category 4.¶ Practically overnight. Southwest Pacific and the North and South Indian Oceans. he said. according to a new study published Friday in the journal Science.¶ “We may differ on the details but there is no doubt there has been an increase in intensity of storms. at least 200 billion dollars.¶ Climate change is warming the surface of the oceans. Gulf Coast. Trenberth explains. scientists say.¶ He also points out that Kerry Emanuel.” said study co-author Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. the U.net/2005/09/environment-the-dawn-of-the-hypercane/ NMS) The number of super-powerful storms like Hurricane Katrina has nearly doubled and there will be even more in the future as the world’s oceans continue to warm. but all arrived at similar conclusions.¶ At landfall.¶ What will the future be like when the oceans warm another 0.¶ Hypercanes is a speculative attempt to explain mass species extinctions 245 million years ago. Webster said. the damage it caused will cost the U.¶ The Saffir-Simpson scale rates hurricanes from 1 to 5 according to wind speeds and destructive potential.¶ Hurricane Katrina offers a good illustration of the role of warm water.5 degrees C. Colorado.¶ Before it struck the U.” Trenberth said in an interview. Webster and Trenberth took different approaches to the issue. said Webster. East Coast is being pummeled by a weakening Hurricane Ophelia.¶ The North Atlantic ocean is exceptionally hot this year – about 1. September 16 2006.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 62 Warming Bad – Hyperstorms Warming will increase the intensity and frequency of powerful storms. which is the fuel for hurricanes. as they inevitably will even if all human emissions of greenhouse gases were cut off today?¶ More Category 4 and 5 storms and possibly beyond that towards what Emanuel and others have called “hypercanes”.¶ Related IPS Articles¶ Science¶ National Centre for Atmospheric Research¶ The National Climatic Data Centre¶ “I think it’s clear that global warming is causing oceans to warm.ipsnews. Earlier this year.” said Kevin Trenberth. Katrina turned into a Category 5 super storm.¶ “I wasn’t surprised by (Webster’s) results. he said. But with its exceptionally large size. there was a huge.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 63 .

" According to the BBC. such as the Middle East.¶ "Of particular concern.html NMS) With rapid population growth. in part over changing access to arable land."¶ "Perhaps the greatest of all modern Middle East conflicts. the Jordan. National Security Affairs. up to 50 percent of water needs of any specific state finds its source in another state."¶ Conflicts are likely to emerge as competition intensifies to control river waters for hydroelectricity. they don't control our water. Central Asia. Research Assistant at Pennsylvania State 2008 (Lisa.org/news131901803." says Packer. he added. By some estimates. (4) perceptions by Israel and the United States that its window of opportunity for military action ." said Packer. two-thirds of the world's population will be waterstressed by 2025. #26." says Robert B. __http://www. control of the Golan Heights is important strategically in terms of controlling the headwaters of the Jordan River.pdf__) Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining framework that can introduce unpredictable behavior from actors. and impending climate change." Packer noted. Russell. agricultural use.¶ Middle East wars cause extinction Russell. "Water access has become a major issue between Israelis and Palestinians. face increasingly severe shortages. the Nile has been the lifeline for Egyptian civilization dating back to antiquity. wasteful practices. Nearly all of Egypt's 80 million people live on the three percent of Egyptian territory that is the river's valley and delta. Water resources in semi-arid regions are expected to be especially hard-hit.¶ The effects of global warming and desertification also have impacted hydro-politics around the world. and its government has voiced to upstream countries that any reduction of Nile waters would be taken as national security threat that could trigger a military response.S. Israeli forces attacked a Syrian water diversion project that would have cut the Carrier's supply. This is exemplified in the tensions over the Tigris-Euphrates.¶ "Nearly all freshwater in the Israeli-occupied West Bank comes from underground aquifers." he added.ifri. lecturer in political science at Penn State. "Hydro-politics already play a central role among states in riparian basins. the Nile. and prolonged violence led to war. June 5th. Naval Postgraduate School. citing the project would reduce the rivers' flow downstream.org “Probing Question: Are water wars in our future?” http://phys.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.) In 1965. (The Carrier now supplies half the drinking water in Israel." Packer noted. Phys. and human consumption. and parts of West and Eastern Africa. (3) incompatible assumptions about the structure of the deterrent relationship that makes the bargaining framework strategically unstable. "For Israelis. Will the prospect of a diminishing water supply result in serious geopolitical conflict?¶ "Freshwater resources are unevenly distributed around the globe. other regions of the globe. 9 (James A. Turkey's response to the Arab states has been 'we don't control their oil. ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI. with another seven expected to be added within 20 years. "Farms and cities downstream are vulnerable to the actions and decisions of upstream countries that they have little control over. Israel built a National Water Carrier to transport freshwater from the Jordan and the Sea of Galilee to the country's farming and urban centers.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 64 Warming Bad – Middle East Instability Warming will lead to Middle East war due to struggle over resources Duchene. water is a topic on people's minds. Senior Lecturer. Proliferation Papers//. (2) the presence of non-state actors that introduce unpredictability into relationships between the antagonists. Iraq and Syria have protested. 2008. began as a dispute over water access. rainfall has declined 30 percent over the last four decades and the Sahara is advancing more than one mile per year."¶ Among Middle East countries. warned the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2007 summary report. such as the Tigris-Euphrates.¶ During a year when many states across the U. Packer noted. where Turkey commenced construction of a system of hydroelectric dams. are suffering some of the worst droughts ever. Packer. as well as those sharing the underground aquifers of the West Bank. the Six Day War of 1967. who studies international political economy and the causes of war.'"¶ To the west. Conflict is more likely to occur where water can be seized and controlled in addition to being scarce. In West Africa. Senegal and Mauritania engaged in militarized conflict in 1989 across the Senegal River that divides them. the number of 'water-scarce' countries in the Middle East grew from three in 1955 to eight in 1990. "are certain riparian basins that could explode into conflict as sources of freshwater diminish. where every major river crosses at least one international border. "For Egypt the Nile is life. "While freshwater is relatively abundant in Europe and much of North America. the situation is likely to get worse.

These systemic weaknesses in the coercive bargaining framework all suggest that escalation by any the parties could happen either on purpose or as a result of miscalculation or the pressures of wartime circumstance. which could lack of a communications framework to build trust and cooperation among framework participants. events would likely develop a momentum all their own and decision-making would consequently be shaped in unpredictable ways. or nuclear weapons. It would be a mistake to believe the nuclear taboo can somehow magically keep nuclear weapons from being used in the context of an unstable strategic framework. Once such a war starts. which could prompt a preventive attack. . (6) the 65 is closing. biological. The international community must take this possibility seriously. (5) the prospect that Iran’s response to pre-emptive attacks could involve unconventional weapons. with world. Given these factors.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core prompt escalation by Israel and/or the United States. Systemic asymmetries between actors in fact suggest a certain increase in the probability of war – a war in which escalation could happen quickly and from a variety of participants. and muster every tool at its disposal to prevent such an outcome. which would be an substantial risk for the entire unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region. it is disturbingly easy to imagine scenarios under which a conflict could quickly escalate in which the regional antagonists would consider the use of chemical.

com/articles/10954/congress-warned-that-global-warming-is-threat-to-i/#ixzz2Yxg65IFY NMS) “Israel is an insignificant player in contributing to global warming. 2007 The Jewish Daily. According to the information presented this week. The same is true for the Palestinian leadership. but it suffers from it in a nonproportional rate. 2007 (Nathan. The Jordanian monarchy. the Israeli experts predicted. June 13. which is based on support of the agricultural communities. and will face great problems when trying to work out water arrangements with Palestinians in a final status agreement. Israel is already facing difficulties fulfilling its agreement — as part of its 1994 peace treaty with Jordan — to transfer water to the Hashemite kingdom.” Bar-Or said. which might encounter an uprising of extremists who will feed on the poverty and despair caused by the collapse of agriculture due to lack of water. water shortages could influence not only its population but also the future of its relations with neighboring countries.¶ The main changes. might be in danger. would be a drop in the water supply — already a scarce commodity in the Middle East — and an expected rise in temperature that will make it even more difficult to replenish water sources. “Congress Warned That Global Warming Is Threat to Israel and Moderate Arab States” http://forward.¶ For Israel. . if action is not taken.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 66 XT – Mid East Warming leads to middle east instability and conflicts Guttman Washington correspondent for the Israeli daily newspaper. then Israel might be facing a loss of up to 100 millimeters of rain a year — almost 20% of the country’s annual rainfall.

in Shishmaref and Kivalini of Alaska. landslides.19 . shelter. and its effects are already being observed across the globe. etc. Environmental factors arising from climate change and leading to migration may be fast occurring. the impacts are considerable. a state island in the Indian Ocean whose President wishes to relocate the entire country.org/focus-campaigns/other/other-continental-issues/82general/792-climate-change-what-about-the-displaced. with an estimated 325 million people adversely affected. Some will be displaced within the boundaries of their affected countries (Internal Displacement or ID) and others will cross state borders. Bedford. In Africa. In high-risk zones authorities have to choose between the cost of rebuilding every time a disaster hits or of just displacing the people permanently. as a result of climate change. effects such as desertification or sea level rise that inundates lowlying regions damaging homes and infrastructure. Climate change diplaces millions and destroys fundamental human rights EFJ 11 — Environmental Justice Foundation EJF a UK Registered charity working internationally to protect the natural environment and human rights 2011 Climate Change and migration:forced displacement. For example more intense tropical cyclones or in the longer-term. Policy Analyst.pdf Climate change is without doubt one of the foremost and most profound threats to environmental security and basic human rights. climate change is reducing the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine life – this could be devastating for the 520 million people – around 8% of the global population – who are dependent on fisheries for food and income. in some cases. ‘climate refugees’ and the need for a new legal instrument http://www. health. such as flooding. accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. an estimated 10 million people have migrated or been displaced over the last two decades mainly because of environmental degradation and desertification 7. Kutubdia in southeastern Bangladesh with thousands of people already displaced and more to be displaced. Fisheries and agriculture are already showing signs of stress. Climate change-related disasters not only affect ecosystems. Furthermore. Climate Change: What About the Displaced?. food. The short and long-term effects of climate change will compound existing poverty levels and obstruct social and economic development.html Already. In the oceans. February 9. Sea level rise will. rising sea levels and droughts. Bahati Ntama Jacques. Other islands are at risk of being submerged. A recent (2009) report suggested that about 12 million people have fallen into poverty today because of climate change 1 .org/pdf/climate_briefing. Maldives being an example. The world has not previously faced a crisis on this scale. as a result of displacement.000 deaths each year 1 . It is more than likely that some of the violence will end up in armed conflict. http://afjn. hurricanes. 2010. at least 18 islands have been submerged worldwide .ejfoundation. and water.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 67 Warming Bad – Migrations That results in sudden onset migrations which risk resource wars —escalation is likely Bahati 10 — Policy Analyst @ Africa Faith and Social Justice Network Originally published in the JanFeb edition of Around Africa. Some will be displaced because of sudden-onset hydro-meteorological disasters. . like desertification. Others will be affected by slow-onset disasters. Climate change is deteriorating environmental conditions and compromising the most basic human rights to life. but cause people to relocate either by choice or by force. declining soil fertility and lack of freshwater . hundreds of millions of people are likely to be displaced by Sea Level Rise (SLR). which means permanent displacement of the inhabitants of the island. and Maldives. These include Lohachara Island in India. disputes over resources such as water and land will cause violence. lead to permanent loss of small state islands. For human populations. They include Bangladesh’s Bhola Island. and planning for adaptation should begin immediately 17 . yet they are projected to face a 50% increase in demand by 2030 18 . The overall impacts for the developing world are sobering: within this century. increased health risks. half of which is permanently flooded. Kabasgadi and Suparibhanga Island near India. and 300.

4 pH units (Orr et al. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. acidification is commonly referred to as the “other CO2 problem” (Henderson 2006. 2008.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 68 Warming Bad – Ocean Acidification Anthropogenic rising C02 causes ocean acidification which affects marine biodiversity Doney . however. 2007). and lower calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation in surface waters. hydrographic surveys. and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. from approximately 8. Over the past 250 years. paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions. Sabine et al. the average ocean surface water pH has fallen by approximately 0. and cause decreases in surface . a level of CO2 that would have led to even greater climate change than witnessed today. both are high priorities for future research.21 to 8.annualreviews. 2006) (Figure 1). Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past. Since preindustrial times. These inputs are particularly important close to major source regions. 2004. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying).1146/annurev.1 units.2005. and the current concentration is higher than experienced on Earth for at least the past 800. 2008). Orr et al. which impacts shellforming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs. echinoderms. primarily in the northern hemisphere. At the Hawaii Ocean Time-Series (HOT) station ALOHA the growth rates of surface water pCO2 and atmospheric CO2 agree well (Takahashi et al. primarily from human fossil fuel combustion. the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions.000 years (Lüthi et al. Doney 1/2009 http://www. Turley 2005). are well verified from models.¶ Fossil fuel combustion and agriculture also produce increased atmospheric inputs of dissociation products of strong acids (HNO3 and H2SO4) and bases (NH3) to the coastal and open ocean. Solomon et al. and is expected to decrease a further 0. 2005. 2007). One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states. and European Station for Time-Series in the Ocean in the eastern Atlantic have decreased approximately 0. where the bulk of oceanic production occurs. Because climate change and ocean acidification are both caused by increasing atmospheric CO2.3–0. Absorption of anthropogenic CO2. and time series data (Caldeira & Wickett 2003.marine.163834 PB) Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO 2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data. reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. from preindustrial levels of approximately 280 ppmv (parts per million volume) to nearly 384 ppmv in 2007 (Solomon et al.01 0908. 09 (Sctott C. 2004). 2007). since the 1980s average pH measurements at HOT. Feely et al. Ocean CO2 uptake. is at least an order of magnitude faster than has occurred for millions of years (Doney & Schimel 2007). it causes pH reductions and alterations in fundamental chemical balances that together are commonly referred to as ocean acidification.10 (Royal Society 2005). driven by human fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. Correspondingly. Rising atmospheric CO2 is tempered by oceanic uptake.org/eprint/QwPqRGcRzQM5ffhPjAdT/full/10.¶ Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 and does not suffer from uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts. and corals. Marine Chemistry and Geochemistr.02 units per decade (Solomon et al. which accounts for nearly a third of anthropogenic carbon added to the atmosphere (Sabine & Feely 2007. and without which atmospheric CO2 would be approximately 450 ppmv today. 2005) if atmospheric CO2 concentrations reach 800 ppmv [the projected end-of-century concentration according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business-as-usual emission scenario]. reduced pH. atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels increased by nearly 40%. indicating uptake of anthropogenic CO2 as the major cause for long-term increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and decreases in CaCO3 saturation state. is not benign. This rate of increase.

just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems. services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. multiple studies revealed several issues that elevate ocean acidification as a threat to marine biota: (a) the calcification rates of many shell-forming organisms respond to the degree of supersaturation (e. human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life. the GEOSECS and TTO measurements were significantly less precise than those of today. n860 Thus. However. and (c) the biological effects of decreasing ocean pH reach far beyond limiting calcification. they largely dismissed the potential impact on the ocean biota because calcite (the assumed CaCO3 mineralogy of most calcifying organisms) would remain supersaturated in the surface ocean. besides significant tourism values . On a global scale." n858 In a very real and direct sense. like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. therefore. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea . (b) aragonite. a more soluble CaCO3 mineral equally important in calcifying organisms.even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide.8 Tmol/yr reactive sulfur and 2. an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity. 2005). Even so. Associate Professor of Law. pH. nitrogen. 2007). n856 Waste treatment is another significant. but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. Although researchers recognized that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the surface ocean was more or less in equilibrium with overlying atmosphere CO2. "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable.¶ Seawater carbon dioxide measurements have been conducted since the beginning of the nineteenth century (Krogh 1904) but were sparse until the middle of the twentieth century (Keeling et al. may become undersaturated in the surface ocean within the early 21st century (Feely & Chen 1982. and DIC (Doney et al. Rev. Orr et al. [*265] Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine environment. these anthropogenic inputs (0. 1999). non-extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 69 seawater alkalinity. For example. Takahashi 1961) and particularly until the Geochemical Sections (GEOSECS) (1973–1979) (Craig & Turekian 1976.and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems.¶ Since then. carbon.g. economic value.. worldwide . 1965. Craig ‘3 (Robin Kundis Craig. or economic value equivalents. and sulfur. as well as other less abundant but necessary elements. 1985) programs. 155) Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist. Current evidence shows that. n857 More generally. phosphorus. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. Feely et al.coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine disasters. "ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms . but they are more concentrated in coastal waters where the ecosystem responses to ocean acidification could be more serious for humankind.Smith & Buddemeier 1992. oxygen. 1980) and Transient Tracers in the Ocean (TTO) (1981–1983) (Brewer et al. Indiana University School of Law. 1988. 34 McGeorge L. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we . Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. in general. Kleypas et al." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity. ¶ Marine ecosystems are critical to the survival of all life on earth. should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. but we now know that such harm is occurring .7 Tmol/yr reactive nitrogen) contribute only a small fraction of the acidification caused by anthropogenic CO2.the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit.

The ecological stresses imposed on the Black Sea were not unique to communism. Nor. was the failure of governments to respond to the emerging crisis." n864 More importantly. the Black Sea is not necessarily unique. n863 its once-complex and productive ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies. The lessons of this tragedy should not be lost to the rest of us. wraith-like blobs of jelly. We may not know much about the sea. The sea weakened. nutrient pollution. The Black Sea is almost dead. . then collapsed with [*266] shocking suddenness. wetlands destruction. oil spills. "starving out fish and dolphins.especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. The Black Sea is a microcosm of what is happening to the ocean systems at large. industrial discharges. n865 Oxygen-starved "dead zones" appear with increasing frequency off the coasts of major cities and major rivers. the introduction of an alien species. and we will take most of the biosphere with us . and converting the web of life into brainless. n866 Ethics as well as enlightened self-interest thus suggest that the United States should protect fully-functioning marine ecosystems wherever possible even if a few fishers go out of business as a result. forcing marine animals to flee and killing all that cannot. The stresses piled up: overfishing.Gonzaga Debate Institute 70 Warming Core are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can . but we do know this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves. sadly. emptying fishermen's nets. slowly at first. because much of what happened here is being repeated all over the world.

org/article/184/the-ozone-layer-and-climate-change PB) Scientists believe that Global Warming will lead to a weaker Ozone layer. more than 60 percent of the ozone layer blanketing the Arctic Circle was lost in the 1999/2000 winter. The vast majority of credible scientists have since confirmed this hypothesis. for example. exposing residents to very high levels of ultra violet radiation. according to scientists. because as the surface temperature rises.¶ Also. 2000. a southern Chile city of about 120. http://archive. reports that by 2030. so quickly . skin cancer. founder of global issues and chief of environmental section. but taken seriously nonetheless. the ozone hole stretched over a populated city for the first time. Without the ozone layer .¶ NASA."¶ The Ozone layer protects all life on Earth from the harmful effects of the Sun's rays. "climate change may surpass chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as the main driver of overall ozone loss. making the natural repairing of the Ozone slower.html When chemists Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina first postulated a link between chlorofluorocarbons and ozone layer depletion in 1974. September 9 to 10.org/ozone/holes/holebg.¶ The ozone depletion has also been correlated with higher levels of cancer in humans and animals. the news was greeted with scepticism.the stakes are literally the continuation of life on earth. Full of Holes: Montreal Protocol and the Continuing Destruction of the Ozone Layer. 1995. the stratosphere (the Ozone layer being found in the upper part) will get colder.000 people.\ Ozone depletion causes complete extinction – scientific consensus is on our side Greenpeace. life on earth would not exist . Scientists have said that currently over Antarctica the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United States andgrowing. The ozone layer around the Earth shields us all from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 71 Warming Bad – Ozone Global Warming depletes Ozone layer Shah.¶ Also. 02 (Anup Shah 6/8/02 http://www.greenpeace.globalissues. It has been depleting for many years now. and immune system suppression in humans as well as innumerable effects on other living systems. . Exposure to increased levels of ultraviolet radiation can cause cataracts. It was in Punta Arenas. This is why Rowland's and Molina's theory was taken so seriously.

either suicidal or with no concern for the fate of the world.S. co-head of the Global Business Network’s consulting practice. reneges on the¶ 1944 treaty that guarantees water flow from the Colorado River. disease. The¶ Danube touches twelve nations. and energy. and energy supply. Relief workers will¶ be commissioned to respond to flooding along the southern part of the east coast and¶ much drier conditions inland. and Doug Randall. struggling to feed their¶ populations with a falling supply of food. and morally) alternatives¶ such as nuclear.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/chapters/taylor. and Middle Eastern contracts.stanford. Tension between the U. And. If that should happen in a region.” http://wwwee. politically. the Nile runs though nine. Mexico. and South America. Countless scenarios of this type can be constructed. Energy supply will be¶ shored up through expensive (economically. the small nuclear war could easily escalate into a global nuclear war.¶ The United States and Australia are likely to build defensive fortresses around their¶ countries because they have the resources and reserves to achieve self-sufficiency. July 6 2006.be it among nations or terrorists . “Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. and the Amazon runs¶ through seven. Limited nuclear wars between countries with small numbers of nuclear weapons could escalate into major nuclear wars between superpowers.¶ Or. . Envision Pakistan. and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate¶ change.S.¶ With diverse growing climates.. where major superpower interests are at stake. Proliferation increases the chance that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of irrational people. and China – all armed with nuclear weapons –¶ skirmishing at their borders over refugees. Taylor 6 *Theodore B. water. use them. and arable land. many countries’ needs will exceed their carrying capacity. p. such as the Middle East. This will create a¶ sense of desperation. hydrogen. which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to¶ reclaim balance. ‘3 Peter. Chairman of NOVA. Borders will be strengthened around the¶ country to hold back unwanted starving immigrants from the Caribbean islands (an¶ especially severe problem)." finding itself losing a nonnuclear war.¶ Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights – leading to¶ conflicts at sea. chair of the Global Business Network. For example. Imagine eastern European countries. as an act of vengeance against humanity as a whole. and Mexico rise as the U. Yet. 18 Google 7-12-13 KB The two most likely reactions to a sudden drop in carrying capacity due to climate¶ change are defensive and offensive. picture Japan.S. irrigation. a nation in an advanced stage of "latent proliferation. Proliferation leads to a global nuclear war. wealth. access to shared rivers. minerals. whose¶ population is already in decline. An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 72 Warming Bad – Prolif Global Warming causes proliferation Schwartz. eyeing Russia. Pesky¶ skirmishes over fishing rights. India. and disaster relief will be¶ commonplace. we can¶ expect conflict over access to water for drinking. With over 200 river basins touching multiple nations. and transportation. The intractable problem facing the¶ nation will be calming the mounting military tension around the world. the¶ United States could likely survive shortened growing cycles and harsh weather¶ conditions without catastrophic losses. in desperation.greatly increases the chance of nuclear violence on a scale that would be intolerable.¶ As famine. for access to its grain. agricultural support. technology. even in this continuous state of emergency the¶ U. and abundant resources.html] Nuclear proliferation . eying Russia’s Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an¶ energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural¶ processes. renewables. Irrational or outright psychotic leaders of military factions or terrorist groups might decide to use a few nuclear weapons under their control to stimulate a global nuclear war. will be positioned well compared to others. might complete the transition to deliverable nuclear weapons and. suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination¶ of its fresh water supply. countries including the United States would be likely to better¶ secure their borders.

"¶ The UW-Madison and WHO assessment appears only weeks before global leaders convene in Montreal during the first meeting of the Conference of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. to develop sustainable energy policies. injustice. especially not in a mask. in a synthesis report featured on the cover of the journal Nature. such as China and India. It also highlights the need for large.the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases . the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that human-induced changes in the Earth's climate now lead to at least 5 million cases of illness and more than 150.wisc.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 73 Warming Bad – Racism Global warming is racist—U. from influencing the spread of infectious diseases to boosting the likelihood of illness-inducing heat waves and floods." "Recent extreme climatic events have underscored the risks to human health and survival. which came into effect in February 2005. without remission. the .html) 7-12-13 KB In a recent chilling assessment.¶ "The political resolve of policy-makers will play a big role in harnessing the man-made forces of climate change. and European nations. are highly sensitive to climate. without intermission. are also prone to temperature-related health problems. such as the U. Patz will also deliver the keynote address at a parallel WHO/Health Canada event. Other factors such as irrigation and deforestation can also affect local temperatures and humidity. from malaria to diarrhea and malnutrition. regions of the continent are gravely at risk for warming-related disease. Of Paris Albert-. yet for this very reason. the places that have contributed the least to warming the Earth are the most vulnerable to the death and disease higher temperatures can bring.¶ Scientists believe that greenhouse gases will increase the global average temperature by approximately 6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. "Herein lies an enormous global ethical challenge. Ironically.¶ The United States . Now. it is a struggle to be undertaken without surcease and without concessions." adds Tony McMichael. are likely to strike with increasing frequency. fast-growing economies.edu/11878. "This synthesizing paper points the way to strategic research that better assesses the risks to health from global climate change. Moral obligation to reject racism-Plus it outweighs Memmi ‘00 MEMMI Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ Unv. Temperature fluctuations may sway human health in a surprising number of ways." says co-author Diarmid CampbellLendrum of WHO. such as Europe's 2003 heat wave." says Patz. It is to agree that the outsider will always be a possible victim (and which [person] man is not [themself] himself an outsider relative to someone else?).S.S. droughts and heat waves. To accept the racist universe to the slightest degree is to endorse fear. regions at highest risk for enduring the health effects of climate change include coastlines along the Pacific and Indian oceans and sub-Saharan Africa. "Many of the most important diseases in poor countries. who also holds a joint appointment with the UW-Madison department of Population Health Sciences. "The health sector is already struggling to control these diseases and climate change threatens to undermine these efforts.000 deaths every year . To give it merely a foothold means to augment the bestial part in us and in other people which is to diminish what is human. with their urban "heat island" effect.has yet to ratify the Kyoto treaty. scientists have learned. difficult. University of Wisconsin. Patz and his colleagues say their work demonstrates the moral obligation of countries with high per-capita emissions. pp." says lead author Jonathan Patz. and violence. director of the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at the Australian National University. emissions affect the Southern hemisphere significantly more than itself Paroma Basu. 11-16-‘5 (“Third World bears brunt of global warming impacts” http://www. Racism illustrates in sum. One cannot even let the monster in the house. translated by Steve Martinot. a team of health and climate scientists at UW-Madison and WHO has shown that the growing health impacts of climate change affect different regions in markedly different ways . "Those least able to cope and least responsible for the greenhouse gases that cause global warming are most affected. One cannot be indulgent toward racism. a professor at UW-Madison's Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies." According to the Nature report.163-165 The struggle against racism will be long. probably never achieved. Large sprawling cities. to adopt a leadership role in reducing the health threats of global warming. RACISM. Yet. Africa has some of the lowest per-capita emissions of greenhouse gases. It is to accept the persistence of the dark history in which we still largely live.news. Extreme floods.

widows or strangers. It is not just a question of theoretical counsel respect for the weak. “Recall. In that sense. the ethical choice commands the political choice. It is probably smarter to treat others with respect so that they treat you with respect. and always debatable in its foundations and its consequences. This is almost a redundancy.” says the bible. It is an ethical and a practical appeal – indeed. we have an interest in banishing injustice. the assault on and oppression of others is permissible. . One day. and always in question. then only conflict. Such unanimity in the safeguarding of the other suggests the real utility of such sentiments. But no one is ever sure of remaining the strongest. However. it is a wager. this is debatable. let alone a legislative order. but the stakes are irresistible. broadly speaking. that is it illuminates in a certain sense the entire human condition. If this contractual principle is not accepted. if one can deploy a little religious language. All unjust society contains within itself the seeds of its own death. on racism because racism signifies the exclusion of the other and his or her subjection to violence and domination. True. we cannot fail to rise to the racist challenge. There are those who think that if one is strong enough. the roles will be reversed. The anti-racist struggle. One cannot found a moral order. Let us say. it is a contract. If it is accepted. A just society must be a society accepted by all. perhaps. or strangers. because injustice engenders violence and death. difficult though it is. however implicit it might be. for orphans. violence. “that you were once a stranger in Egypt. is nevertheless one of the prologues to the ultimate passage from animality to humanity. racism is “the truly capital sin.Gonzaga Debate Institute 74 Warming Core inevitable negativity of the condition of the dominated. From an ethical point of view. It is not just a question of theoretical morality and disinterested commandments. the refusal of racism is the condition for all theoretical and practical morality. and destruction will be our lot.”fn22 It is not an accident that almost all of humanity’s spiritual traditions counsel respect for the weak. we can hope someday to live in peace. for orphans. It is a choice among other choices. In short. in the end. Because. All things considered.” which means both that you ought to respect the stranger because you were a stranger yourself and that you risk becoming once again someday. that the choice to conduct oneself morally is the condition for the establishment of a human order for which racism is the very negation. widows. it remains true that one’s moral conduct only emerges from a choice: one has to want it. Of course.

Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale (Nick. writes about Russia’s foreign policy for Russia Profile magazine and penned a prescient column in the July 17th edition titled “The Coming Conflict in the Arctic: Russia and U. a former Foreign Service officer. Stephen Harper.html) .S. submersibles. Canada. quickly embarked upon a “three-day Arctic trip” during which he made major announcements that “increased Canada’s naval presence in the Arctic. a Moscowbased think tank.” Cohen believes that the United States “should encourage its friends and allies—especially Canada.[18] Frolov. provided the problem of flooding could be solved. and Norway—to pursue their own claims with the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.” and pointed out that the U.” and believes “the U.191. which the U.” He noted that “Russia views the Arctic reserves as its ‘last barrel of oil’ to be safeguarded and then used to Russia’s strategic advantage.S. to help build a Western presence in the Arctic: This will probably have to include a fleet of modern icebreakers. and the Nordic countries little choice but to forge a cooperative high-north strategy and invite other friendly countries. and will open each other’s resources for joint ventures that will boost economic development in the Arctic. and polar aircraft.” as Russia “recently laid claim to a vast 1.” And while America “has not ratified LOST. 2007 column in Russia Profile. Cohen noted the other Arctic states “have filed claims with the Commission in opposition to Russia's claims.” To understand Russia’s intentions. 7-12-13.php?articleID=12387&sectionID=43. but rather about the huge hydrocarbon reserves that are hidden on the seabed under the Arctic ice cap: these newly discovered energy reserves will play a crucial role in the global energy balance as the existing reserves of oil and gas are depleted over the next 20 years. Security Innovator.S.” much like the U. State Department has “already expressed its skepticism of planting of the Russian Flag. KB In response to Russia’s aggressive assertion of its claims to the Arctic. One is that global warming is a myth.” He added that “Russia might benefit from global warming if it leads to more mild temperatures in the Arctic.com/volume9/risks.transhumanist. Cohen believes that “legal and diplomatic actions are necessary.” Cohen added that “Canada joined in this opposition. Vladimir Frolov. www. Canada. such as Great Britain.” noting its Prime Minister.”*19+ Frolov explained that “there are two principal lines of thinking on global warming in Russia. As Frolov explained in his July 17.” Cohen believes Moscow’s “decision to take an aggressive stand has left the U. and—as well as Denmark and Norway will have a multilateral regime negotiated that will specify the economic zones. “I don’t think Russia has financial resources and technology to explore Artic for its riches alone. Norway and Denmark.S.” and that it “would be much better if U. there’s “too much at stake to leave the Arctic to the Russian bear.S. 2007 http://securityinnovator. “the stage has been quietly set for a much more serious confrontation in the non-too-distant future between Russia and the United States—along with Canada.” and believes the act was “not in legal effect. a new race for its undersea resources begins” August 23. US-Russia war causes extinction Bostrom ‘2 .000 square km chunk of the ice-covered Arctic seabed.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 75 Warming Bad – Russia War Global warming makes US Russia war inevitable Zellen. “The Polar Show Down: As the Arctic's ice begins to melt.com/index.” the Law of the Sea Treaty.” In order to “block Russia's grab..” But in an optimistic “parting thought. Denmark.S.. "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards.” Its claim is “not really about territory." 38. we interviewed Dr. to Square Off Over Arctic Energy Reserves. the other is that global warming exists and it is good for Russia. geophysics/seismic vessels. may join. the director of the National Laboratory for Foreign Policy.S.” As Cohen explained. view of “oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). 07 Barry.”¶ ¶ So bountiful are Russia’s reserves of Arctic petroleum resources that Frolov thinks that they will precipitate an inevitable clash between Russia and the United States reminiscent of its Cold War clash across the Arctic.” because a milder climate “would make it less prohibitively costly to develop the considerable energy resources that Russia has there.” Cohen added. should also encourage Canada to coordinate a possible claim through the International Justice Court in The Hague against the Russian grab.

Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 76 A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. between India and Pakistan for instance. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. . since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. is not an existential risk. either accidentally or deliberately. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal.

is likely to be especially affected by climate change because of its “low adaptive capacity”. the summit’s outcome appears insufficient to prevent warming of 3° Celsius or more. will also be particularly important. due to the high degree of uncertainty associated with them. New York University. this would still have left the world with an even chance of exceeding a 2° Celsius temperature increase. assessments of the climate and scarcity outlook are complicated by a number of methodological issues. a problem that increases at more specific levels of geographical focus.26 (which would result in higher sea levels). and hallmarked by sudden shifts as key thresholds are passed.6° Celsius.0° Celsius).25 Although climate models are improving all the time. Even if the 2009 Copenhagen summit had agreed that global emissions would peak in 2015 and decline by 3% a year thereafter. such as: -back of tropical forests or melting of Arctic tundra (both of which would release large amounts of methane into the atmosphere). which will expose hundreds of millions of people to additional water stress. and densely populated coastal “megadeltas” in Asia and Africa such as the N ile. in fact past changes in the earth’s climate have been the opposite: highly non-linear and unpredictable.28 While these kinds of risk are largely omitted from IPCC assessments. http://siteresources. with the effect that overall estimates quickly become dated: the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report is already out of date in some key respects. A further challenge for policymakers arises from the fact that while some estimates of future climate impacts may seem to imply steady. and emissions already in the atmosphere mean that the world is committed to a further increase of 0. even stringent global mitigation action may not be enough to avoid a 2.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 77 Warming Bad – Resources Warming causes resource scarcity Evans 10 (Alex Evans. and in all areas above 2.7° Celsius.27 or oceans to absorb carbon dioxide (which would magnify the impact of current emissions). Center on International Cooperation. gradual changes that can be adapted to over time. Africa.23 Significantly. New science findings continue to emerge rapidly. an increasing concern for policymakers in recent years has been the risk of abrupt climate change that could result from positive feedback effects.21 Decreased crop yields (in all areas except mid and high latitudes. small islands. for example. 2010. Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong.19 As it is. which is likely to be the most important long-term driver of change on all of the above sectors. Africa.20 Most of the key near-term impacts of climate change will result from reduced freshwater availability. whilst the next assessment is not due to be published until 2014. they nonetheless remain a real consideration for policymakers wanting to take a risk management approach based on feasible worst case scenarios.0° Celsius may be a key threshold for some of these effects. and will expose tens to hundreds of millions more people to the risk of hunger. global average temperatures have increase by 0. September 9. whilst the high population densities of Asian and African megadeltas are also factors in determining their exposure.29 Some best-guess estimates suggest that global average warming of around 2. these regions’ high exposure is in some cases as much the result of their high vulnerability as of the scale of climate impacts they are projected to experience.30 . for example.pdf) Climate change and its effects on resource scarcity All of these potential limitations to supply growth are before climate change is considered.org/EXTWDR2011/Resources/64060821283882418764/WDR_Background_Paper_Evans. while the IPCC concluded in its Third Assessment Report that “there is low to medium confidence that a rapid warming of over 3° Celsius would trigger large-scale singularities in the climate system”. particularly in the area of climate change. where tens of millions will be at increased risk of acute flood and storm damage.22 The IPCC also highlights a number of regions that will be particularly exposed to climate change.24However. Accordingly. but such assessments are highly uncertain. their findings remain subject to a substantial degree of uncertainty.0° Celsius increase on pre-industrial temperatures. chronic coastal flooding and loss of coastal wetlands. Since pre-industrial times.worldbank. including the Arctic.18 Overall.

clearly with intent to protect US “interests” in petroleum reserves.and China has noticed). public health. would demand a World War II type mobilization -. (Frosty.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 78 Resource conflict causes prolif and nuclear conflict. “Humanity galloping toward its greatest crisis in the 21st century” http://www. humanity will move further into an era of resource wars (remember. . Wooldridge 9. The consequences of more resource wars. a nuclear war ending civilization.australia. The required changes in energy technology. and the economy.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10042:humanitygalloping-toward-its-greatest-crisis-in-the-21st-century&catid=125:frosty-wooldridge&Itemid=244 It is clear that most politicians and most citizens do not recognize that returning to “more of the same” is a recipe for promoting the first collapse of a global civilization. free lance writer. which would benefit not only the environment but also national security. once lectured at Cornell University. Africom has been added to the Pentagon’s structure -. Without transitioning away from use of fossil fuels. and in the worst (and not unlikely) case. widening inequity within and between nations. a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.and even that might not prevent a global climate disaster. many likely triggered over water supplies stressed by climate disruption. are likely to include increased unrest in poor nations.to/index.

com/newsweek/2009/10/09/why-india-fears-china. A case in point is the Siachen Glacier in the Karakoram range. the boundary that separates India and China. climate change has caused rivers to change course over the past few years. French geologists have already predicted the Indus will become a seasonal river by 2040. which is the site of a major bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. foreign policy." Now. Indo-China territorial disputes go nuclear . The Shyok also joins the Indus River. Yet such a scenario is becoming increasingly likely as glaciers around the world melt. which would unnerve Pakistan as its ‘granary basket. glacier melting could also be creating a potential flashpoint between India and China. "Climate Change = War?" The Diplomat. Pakistan and China–nuclear weapon states that between them have the highest concentration of glaciers in the world outside the polar regions. rocky peaks hardly worth fighting over into a flash point that could spark a war between two nuclear-armed neighbors. The glacier’s melting ice is the main source of the Nubra River. "Why India Fears China. a former Clinton-administration official and expert on China. Chad. It turns what was once an obscure argument over lines on a 1914 map and some barren. Throw into the mix three nuclear-armed nations with a history of disagreements. journalist-author who has been writing on international relations. The Communist Party leadership worries that agitation by Tibetans will only encourage unrest by the country's other ethnic minorities. But it is in Asia where a truly nightmarish scenario could play out between India.print. And in Africa.' as they call it. Siachen Glacier is melting at the rate of about 110 meters a year–among the fastest of any glaciers in the world. says Shirk. still doesn’t dispute that glaciers are melting. The phenomenon is already pushing Europeans and Africans to redraw their borders. which itself drains into the Shyok River. The implications for India's security —and the world's—are ominous.’ Punjab. meanwhile. strategic affairs. and Tibet was not very salient to the public. security and terrorism for over two decades. The emergence of videos showing Tibetans beating up Han Chinese shopkeepers in Lhasa and other Tibetan cities created immense domestic pressure on Beijing to crack down. progress toward settling the border dispute has stalled. it is an often overlooked fact that climate change has the potential to create border disputes that in some cases could even provoke clashes between states. Taiwan was the 'core issue of sovereignty. and forms the major source of water for Pakistan. for example. such as Uighurs in Xinjiang or ethnic Mongolians in Inner Mongolia.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 79 Warming Bad – South Asia War Climate change leads to south Asian nuclear war Sharma 10 (Rajeev Sharma. Switzerland and Italy. Susan Shirk. And that makes the India-China border dispute into an issue of concern to far more than just the two . would become increasingly drought -prone and eventually a desert–all within a few decades. The chastened United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. and the stakes of any conflict rise incalculably. and the situation has taken a dangerous turn. blurring international boundaries. It is clear. threatening China's integrity as a nation. for example. Many African nations have rivers marking international boundaries and are understandably worried about these changing course and therefore cutting into their borders. Egypt. then. the largest glacier outside the polar region. says that "in the past. http://thediplomat. These are two of the main rivers in Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir. 10/9/2009." http://www. the only question is how fast. Kenya and Sudan are just some of the African countries that have indicated apprehension about their international boundaries.html) Ever since the anti-Chinese unrest in Tibet last year.results in great-power draw-in Kahn 9 (Jeremy Kahn. were forced to introduce draft resolutions in their respective parliaments for fresh border demarcations after alpine glaciers started melting unusually quickly.thedailybeast. The melting Himalayan glaciers will inevitably induce changes to the McMahon Line. It takes no great leap of imagination to see the potential for conflict as the two nations resort to military means to control this water source. 2/25/2010. Beijing has already embarked upon a long-term strategy of throttling of India’s major water source in the north-east–the Brahmaputra River that originates in China. According to scientific data. why the melting of glaciers in the Karakoram region could have a disastrous impact on ties between India and Pakistan. Ethiopia.com/2010/02/25/climate-change-war/) For all the heat generated by discussions of global warming in recent months. staff writer for Newsweek. Meanwhile. Tibet is considered a "core issue of national sovereignty" on par with Taiwan.

or as a mediator trying to separate the two sides. as in the case of Taiwan. The United States and Europe as well as the rest of Asia ought to take notice—a conflict involving India and China could result in a nuclear exchange. And it could suck the West in—either as an ally in the defense of Asian democracy.Gonzaga Debate Institute 80 Warming Core parties involved. .

and "climate change will worsen this dire situation" -provoking more wars like Darfur." Similar scenarios will be replicated all across the planet.notably. Recent studies showing the rapid shrinkage of the polar ice caps. which is likely to lead to offensive aggression" against countries with a greater stock of vital resources. And even if these social disasters will occur primarily in the developing world. And.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 81 Warming Bad – Structural Violence Warming enforces and entrenches societal exclusion and structural violence due to depleted resources Klare professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. But viewing climate change as an environmental problem fails to do justice to the magnitude of the peril it poses. the wealthier countries will also be caught up in them. As Reid's speech and the 2003 Pentagon study make clear. struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food. "Imagine eastern European countries. the accelerated melting of North American glaciers.as was certainly often the case in the past. whether by participating in peacekeeping and humanitarian aid operations." the Pentagon report notes. their ability to provide the minimum requirements for human survival. minerals. disease. But Reid's speech at Chatham House suggests that a major shift in strategic thinking may be under way.and this "will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security. and minerals .remain the main drivers of international conflict. this mode of analysis has failed to command the attention of top American and British policymakers." the 2003 Pentagon report predicted. the burning of fossil fuels in factories." the 2003 report noted." As oil and natural gas disappears.but so will wars among the survivors of these catastrophes over what remains of . and motor vehicles -. that worries John Reid. Drought.org/environment/33243 NMS) Violence and disruption stemming from the stresses created by abrupt changes in the climate pose a different type of threat to national security than we are accustomed to today. flooding and storms can kill us. and weather-related disasters strike due to abrupt climate change. Environmental perils may soon dominate the world security agenda. This assessment may not have yet penetrated the White House and other bastions of head-in-the-sand thinking. water. eyeing Russia. the greatest danger posed by global climate change is not the degradation of ecosystems per se. the clash between values of tolerance and democracy on one hand and extremist forms of Islam on the other -. "Military confrontation may be triggered by a desperate need for natural resources such as energy. these reports make one thing clear: when thinking about the calamitous effects of global climate change. whose population is already in decline. of course. public discussion of global climate change has tended to describe its effects as an environmental problem -. climate change is a potent threat to the environment. food and water rather than by conflicts over ideology. This shift is due in part to the growing weight of evidence pointing to a significant human role in altering the planet's basic climate systems. and energy supply.that is. they conclude that human behavior -most importantly. religion or national honor." he observed. but it is clearly gaining ground among scientists and thoughtful analysts around the world. and could easily prove to be so again. it is easy to conjure up images of desperate. March 10 2006. 2006 (Michael. temperate forests. power plants. by fending off unwanted migrants or by fighting for access to overseas supplies of food. arable soil.is the most likely cause of these changes. and surely will -. In particular. "As famine. he expressed concern over the inadequate capacity of poor and unstable countries to cope with the effects of climate change. more than anything. "In this world of warring states." Until now. as those without the means to survival invade or migrate to those with greater abundance -. "More than 300 million people in Africa currently lack access to safe water. This "will create a sense of desperation. we must emphasize its social and political consequences as much as its purely environmental effects.producing endless struggles between resource "haves" and "have-nots. and the resulting risk of state collapse. but rather the disintegration of entire human societies. and energy. AlterNet “The Coming Resource Wars” http://www. more and more countries will rely on nuclear power to meet their energy needs -. When reading of these nightmarish scenarios. the greatest threat imaginable." It is this prospect." Although speculative. producing wholesale starvation. For the most part. the increased frequency of severe hurricanes and a number of other such effects all suggest that dramatic and potentially harmful changes to the global climate have begun to occur.alternet. oil. starving people killing one another with knives. they insist that ideological and religious differences -.as a threat to safe water. civil war and mass migration. But these scenarios also envision the use of more deadly weapons. "many countries' needs will exceed their carrying capacity" -. staves and clubs -. mass migrations and recurring conflict over resources. in fact. More importantly. "nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. For the most part. for access to its grain. certain species and so on.

water and shelter. however affluent. will escape involvement in these forms of conflict. As Reid's comments indicate. no society.Gonzaga Debate Institute 82 Warming Core food. .

an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University and at Columbia’s Earth Institute. One could argue that to maintain ecosystem services we don’t need to protect biodiversity but rather. Similar to the removal of a keystone from an arch. the ivory-billed woodpecker—all are gone—and the whooping crane. the "end-Permian" event. This led to a population explosion in the sea otters’ main source of prey. fungi. “Biodiversity: what it is and why it’s important”. All these mass extinctions were associated with large and relatively rapid changes of atmospheric composition and climate. as increasingly powerful methods of "reading the rocks" are being developed. Nor do we know the rate we are driving species to extinction. To make it simpler for economists to comprehend the magnitude of services offered by biodiversity. We do not know how many animal. medicines and timber.talkingnature. and parasites are counted. A few such species. over fishing of large shark species along the US Atlantic coast has led to a population explosion of skates and rays. But now the movement is inexorably toward the poles and totals more than one hundred miles over the past several decades. such as apex predators (See Jeremy Hance’s post at Mongabay). then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade." We are still losing one or two bird species per year. Because the urchins graze on kelp their booming population decimated the underwater kelp forests. in effect. is member of the National Academy of Sciences 2011. These skates and rays eat bay scallops and their out of control population has led to the closure of a century long scallop fishery. Biodiversity loss causes extinction Young. the outcome is still very much up in the air. About two million species —half of them being insects. During the last 35 years. which. I will argue that if we continue on a business-as-usual path. These are just two examples demonstrating how biodiversity can maintain the services that ecosystems provide for us. but survival in zoos or managed animal reserves will be small consolation to bears or nature lovers. dividing the Permian Triassic periods 251 million years ago. including butterflies—have been cataloged. conceivably all species. Yet enough is now known to provide an invaluable perspective for what is already being called the sixth mass extinction. just as in the case of ice sheet stability. In other cases. For example plant species convert carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and energy from the sun into useful things such as food.(Ruth. Species at the most immediate risk are those in polar climates and the biologically diverse slopes of alpine regions. leading to the recovery of the kelp forests and fish stocks. the removal of these species can result in the collapse of an ecosystem and the subsequent removal of ecosystem services. the effect on species is limited. and human-made climate change is likely to be the determining factor. the passenger pigeon. and our own. such as fisheries. PhD coastal marine ecology 2010 . ecosystem services are maintained by entire functional groups. nearly all life on Earth— more than 90 percent of terrestrial and marine species—was exterminated. if we bring atmospheric composition under control in the near future. sea urchins. February 9th. they all have a function. then we will drive a large fraction of species. so far. and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (PB) As long as the total movement of isotherms toward the poles is much smaller than the size of the habitat. Research is active. Alpine species will be pushed toward higher altitudes. no doubt will be "rescued" by human beings. there may be one hundred million species. The order of magnitude for the total is perhaps ten million. in effect. we have just barely "saved. they all have a niche.com/2010/02/biodiversity/biodiversity-what-and-why/ PB) Different species within ecosystems fill particular roles. life survived and new species developed over hundreds of thousands and millions of years. The current extinction rate is at least one hundred times greater than the average natural rate. This loss of habitat led to declines in local fish populations. such as polar bears. So the concern that humans may have initiated the sixth mass extinction is easy to understand. will be pushed off the planet. If the loss of birds is representative of other species. However. Knowledge of past extinction events can inform us about potential paths for the future and perhaps help guide our actions. Polar animals. On the other hand. In total about 1 percent of bird species have disappeared over the past several centuries. In each case. http://www. Sea otters are a keystone species once hunted for their fur (Image: Mike Baird) Eventually a treaty protecting sea otters allowed the numbers of otters to increase which inturn controlled the urchin population. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates. it is still possible to keep human-caus ed extinctions to a moderate level. The most well known example of this occurred during the 19th century when sea otters were almost hunted to extinction by fur traders along the west coast of the USA. or the ranges in which the animals live. plant. None of the extinction events is understood in full. Diverse mangrove and coral reef ecosystems provide a wide variety of habitats that are essential for many fishery species. several thousand species are becoming extinct each year. insect. Bird species are documented better than most. “By protecting biodiversity we maintain ecosystem services” Certain species play a “keystone” role in maintaining ecosystem services. rockier areas with thinner air. Some biologists estimate that when all the microbes. to extinction. Everybody has heard of the dodo. a team of researchers estimated their value – it amounted to $US33 trillion per year. Fossils in the geologic record reveal that there have been five mass extinctions during the past five hundred million years— geologically brief periods in which about half or more of the species on Earth disappeared forever. they will also be pushed off the planet. we only need to . In the most extreme extinction. They interact with each other and the physical environment to provide ecosystem services that are vital for our survival. and toward smaller. but more are discovered every day. and microbe species exist today. with a global warming of several degrees Celsius. as our single powerful species threatens all others. Earth's history provides an invaluable perspective about what is possible. thus.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 83 Warming Turns Bio D Warming destroys biodiversity—Leads to extinction Hansen. Pollination carried out by insects such as bees enables the production of ⅓ of our food crops. the human-caused destruction of species.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 84 Warming Core protect the species and functional groups that fill the keystone roles. we increase the chance of maintaining our ecosystem services in the event of future impacts such as disease.g. The scope of this task is immense. First of all. there are a couple of problems with this idea. a wise insurance policy for maintaining ecosystem services would be to conserve biodiversity. But. In some cases its groups of species not just one species that are vital for the ecosystem. what back-up plan would we have if an unforseen event (e. When the time came to remove the fences the researchers expected herbivorous species of fish like the parrot fish (Scarus spp. This research examined what would happen to a coral reef if it were over-fished. even if we did complete the enormous task of identifying and protecting all keystone species. pollution or disease) led to the demise of these ‘keystone’ species? Would there be another species to save the day and take over this role? Classifying some species as ‘keystone’ implies that the others are not important. The bat fish was previously thought to feed on invertebrates – small crabs and shrimp. However. In doing so. This may lead to the non-keystone species being considered ecologically worthless and subsequently over-exploited. By the end of the experiment. invasive species and of course. An example of this was discovered on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Second. So a fish previously thought to be ‘unimportant’ is actually a keystone species in the recovery of coral reefs overgrown by algae! Who knows how many other species are out there with unknown ecosystem roles! In some cases it’s easy to see who the keystone species are but in many ecosystems seemingly unimportant or redundant specie s are also capable of changing niches and maintaining ecosystems. Presently we’re only scratching the surface of understanding the full importance of biodiversity and how it helps maintain ecosystem function. The more biodiverse an ecosystem is. In the meantime. This is the international year of biodiversity – a time to recognize that biodiversity makes our survival on this planet possible and that our protection of biodiversity maintains this service. surprisingly. the more likely these species will be present and the more resilient an ecosystem is to future impacts. climate change. Sometimes we may not even know which species are likely to fill the keystone roles. the shift back to coral was driven by a supposed ‘unimportant’ species – the bat fish (Platax pinnatus). . but when offered a big patch of algae it turned into a hungry herbivore – a cow of the sea – grazing the algae in no time.) to eat the algae and enable the reef to switch back to a coral dominated ecosystem. the reefs had changed from a coral to an algae dominated ecosystem – the coral became overgrown with algae. The “over-fishing” was simulated by fencing off coral bommies thereby excluding and removing fish from them for three years. for most ecosystems we don’t know which species are the keystones! Ecosystems are so complex that we are still discovering which species play vital roles in maintaining them.

developed countries are soaring. former associate/assistant professor with the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (Paul. economic and political disruption for developed countries and.blogs.62 In 2003. but that actions should be undertaken now to prepare for a range of outcomes. & Development. extreme weather events could create social. The primary authors are Frank L. it is assumed that wealthier countries have. 35. a retired Navy admiral who led the service’s nuclear propulsion unit. College Park. in some cases. a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland. accepts the scientific consensus that the climate is changing and that the effects are being felt now. Of particular consequence to American naval forces – the Navy. the intelligence community and independent research groups that have concluded that climate change is a “threat multiplier” that adds new and unpredictable dangers to global physical and political stability. Moreover. for which the American bureaucracy was ill-prepared. Security. by virtue of available capital and other factors. Busalacchi. extreme climate change events can exceed adaptation measures. powerful states to such scenarios. 7-12-13 KB A report commissioned by the United States Navy concludes that climate change will pose profound challenges for the sea service in coming decades.com/doi/full/10. however. Recent extreme weather events demonstrate the persistent vulnerability of richer. prepare for more frequent humanitarian missions and protect coastal installations from rising seas. undermine public morale and confidence. At the very least. “Study Says Navy Must Adapt to Climate Change.¶ The group found that the precise impacts of climate change are impossible to predict.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 85 Warming Turns Heg Warming collapses US heg Smith.” http://green. State Department. In Japan. They were assisted by a large number of climate and oceanography experts as well as corporate planners and active-duty military officers.65 Thus. at a time when public debt-to-GDP ratios in richer.” Conflict. Bowman. New York Times. Two years later. mass migration and political instability.com/2011/03/10/study-says-navy-must-adapt-to-climate-change/.800 people. even in wealthier. climate change potentially could affect the major powers by undermining national resilience and public confidence. European Union or Japan.64 Even when such investments are planned.1080/14678802. it killed roughly 1. Hurricane Katrina not only nearly destroyed an American city. a heat wave in the summer of 2010 killed 66 people and resulted in more than 15. “ The geopolitics of climate change: power transitions.000 people during a two-week period. adaptive capacity will determine the degree to which climate change (and its varied effects) will influence current major powers. the effects of climate change (such as extreme weather events) could provoke a more inward political orientation in the United States. Marine Corps and Coast Guard – are the melting polar ice cap. This would also imply less willingness to act in the global commons or in countries (or continents) confronting far less favourable conditions brought about by climate change. a heat wave in Europe killed at least. rising seas and increasingly frequent severe storms and droughts that could lead to famine. In general.593810. high adaptive capacity and that such capacities can effectively immunise these countries from the effects of climate change.2011. an arm of the National Academy of Sciences. – professor of Security Strategies at the Naval War College 11. builds on previous work by the Pentagon.000 hospitalisations. Jr. conflict and the future of military activities. they will compete against other fiscal priorities. left thousands homeless and displaced tens of thousands.tandfonline. and Antonio J. as their respective populations demand their governments deploy national assets (including military forces) solely for domestic disaster assistance or reconstruction missions. It also found that some impacts are already observable.¶ The report from research council.¶ The 15-month study.. http://www. developed countries. Hurricane Katrina had a deleterious effect on Americans' psyche. PB ) In particular. conducted by the National Research Council. just as the country was engaged in ‘state-building’ efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. including a need to secure Arctic shipping lanes. including melting sea ice in the Arctic and rising . Warming kills the navy – stretches capabilities and destroys crucial basing Broder Reporter at the NYT 11 *John.nytimes. The storm put the United States into an awkward position of having been transformed into a major recipient of foreign financial assistance. In reality. 3/10/2011.63 As in the case of the BRICS countries.

and require planning and action by naval forces. "the Navy should begin Arctic training and the Marine Corps should also reestablish a cold-weather training program. it said.¶ "The geopolitical situation in the Arctic region has become complex and nuanced. rising seas”. “Naval forces need to monitor more closely and start preparing now for projected challenges climate change will present in the future.¶ As rising temperatures continue to melt sea ice.” Mr.Gonzaga Debate Institute 86 Warming Core sea levels." he added.S. The Navy should consider beefing up its small complement of hospital ships. and Arctic Ocean sea lanes could be open as early as the summer of 2030. despite the area being essentially ignored since the end of the Cold War.¶ Rising sea levels and more extreme storm surges tied to warming could also become costly for the Navy. to mobilizing for humanitarian aid and geopolitical conflicts in the Arctic — the National Research Council said in a report Thursday. said in a statement.¶ Russia has been among the most aggressive in seeking energy riches. they added.¶ What is more. Marine Corps and Coast Guard. would place at risk 56 Navy installations worth $100 billion. perhaps by contracting with private companies to provide extra capability in emergencies.” Mr. bases will be vulnerable to storms. co-chair of the committee that wrote the report at the Navy's request. oil and gas operations and other activities in the region will require an increased naval presence in the region." retired Adm. Shipping. interests.¶ A rise of three feet.msnbc.¶ "Naval forces need to monitor more closely and start preparing now for projected challenges climate change will present in the future. they added.S. the report contends. it’s clear that the potential for environmental disasters is on the rise due to the changing nature of the hydrologic cycle and sea level ." said panel co-chair Antonio Busalacchi. The Navy should expect a rise by 2100 anywhere between a foot and six feet . Busalacchi said. ¶ "Naval forces must be prepared to provide more aid and disaster relief in the decades ahead. Bowman said.¶ "Even the most moderate predicted trends in climate change will present new national security challenges . Frank Bowman. Arctic sea lanes could be regularly open across the Arctic by 2030.http://www.¶ In order to protect U. the report noted. as well as nations lining up to seek energy and mineral deposits. director of the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland. and plans should be made to relocate some critical facilities inland." the experts wrote. experts say Report: Arctic role will grow. Navy.msn.¶ “Even the most moderate predicted trends in climate change will present new national security challenges for the U. ¶ “Although the future degree and magnitude of climate change on regional scales is uncertain.com/id/41990999/ns/us_news-environment/t/navys-got-new-challenges-warming-experts-say/. KB The U. .¶ The report also urged the Navy to increase its capacity for helping climate refugees via hospital ships. “Naval forces must be prepared to provide more aid and disaster relief in the decades ahead. the report found.S.” Warming destroys the US Navy’s ability to win the artic conflict – facilitates belligerence MSNBC 11 “Navy's got new challenges with warming. the experts said. new equipment such as icebreakers and increased cold-weather training.”¶ Summer sea ice is retreating at an estimated rate of 10 percent a decade. major naval installations along the coasts are vulnerable to rising seas and storm surges. The region is already seeing ships testing the waters. Navy should plan for climate change impacts — from costly base repairs. while Canada has beefed up its patrols.¶ The report also concludes that the military should also be prepared for large-scale and frequent missions to help people displaced by major storms or drought. the authors write. estimating that $100 billion of Navy installations would be at risk of sea level rise of one meter or more. 7-12-13.

Hence. and may disappear entirely during summer as early as 2015. tropical diseases are gradually migrating northward.000 years. Already. Some scientists have said that the UN report was too cautious in interpreting the data. the horizontal spread of the ocean is about 100 feet.200 square miles of ice. Temperatures started to be reliably recorded in the late 1700s.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 87 Warming Turns War Global warming is real. Before the Industrial Revolution.83. sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century. floating on water. Within the last century. the eggs of many harmful insects die every winter when the soil freezes. the amount of carbon dioxide generated has grown explosively.) For every vertical foot that the ocean rises. So gradually the map of the earth’s coastlines will change. He received a B. We also see a somewhat similar effect in greenhouses or cars.pdf PB) By midcentury. it jumped to 28 billion barrels. the world consumed 150 million barrels of oil. 9. especially the production of carbon dioxide via the burning of oil and coal. The sunlight warms the air. the earth’s temperature rose 1.) Large chunks of Antarctica’s ice. I once gave a lecture in Reykjavik. 11 (Michio Kaku. which does not pass back through carbon dioxide so easily. In 2008. This figure jumped to seventy-one square miles in 2008. a 185-fold jump. They are at the highest levels in 100. The energy from sunlight cannot escape back into space and is trapped. the capital of Iceland. 2000 to 2009 was the hottest decade. acting as a canary in a mineshaft. But with the shortening of the winter season. Sunlight easily passes through carbon dioxide. they will be able to determine the weather conditions going back a million years. (“Physics of the Future” http://213. scientists can reconstruct the temperature and carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere going back more than 600. The polar ice cap may vanish permanently by the end of the century.000 years. especially in the last century. by 2100 sea levels could rise by 3 to 6 feet. at first all . a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island broke off the Thwaites Glacier. (In 1900. but only 5 billion tons were recycled into the oceans.) VISIT TO ICELAND The rise in temperature is not a fluke.52/ebooks/physics/Physics%20of%20the%20Future. parts of the northern polar ice caps disappear during the summer months.S. levels of carbon dioxide are rising dramatically. By drilling deep into the ancient ice of the Arctic. (If all the Greenland ice were somehow to melt. sea levels would rise about 180 feet around the world. soil. By chemically analyzing the air in these bubbles. scientists have been able to extract air bubbles that are thousands of years old. sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by 2100. mainly caused by the expansion of seawater as it heats up. As the earth heats up. The signs are unmistakable everywhere we look: The thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by an astonishing 50 percent in just the past fifty years. CARBONDIOXIDE—GREENHOUSEGAS According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. where ice cores are being analyzed. Ominously. it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward. an early warning system. The recent spread of the West Nile virus carried by mosquitoes may be a harbinger of things to come.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide were sent into the air from fossil fuel burning and also deforestation. According to scientists at the University of Colorado’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. In 2000.3° F. But as sunlight heats up the earth. the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full swing: global warming. escalating to nuclear war and extinction Kaku . it is acutely sensitive to small temperature variations of the oceans. Usually. I had a chance to see this firsthand. 1995. which have been stable for tens of thousands of years. disrupting the world’s weather by altering the flow of ocean and air currents around the planet. and vegetation. Much of this Arctic ice is just below the freezing point. scientists have concluded with 90 percent confidence that global warming is driven by human activity. and the pace is accelerating. Today. (If all Antarctica’s ice were to melt. heating up the earth. and had the privilege of visiting the University of Iceland. UN officials are especially concerned about the spread of malaria northward. Greenland’s ice shelves shrank by twentyfour square miles in 2007. as we can see by analyzing ice cores. In 2002. It is now indisputable that the earth is heating up. are gradually breaking off. feedbacks cause rapid escalation. a piece the size of Connecticut broke off. Soon. a branch of string theory. co-creator of string field theory. the carbon dioxide content of the air was 270 parts per million (ppm). When your airplane lands in Reykjavik. In 2000. Likewise. and 2010 ranked among the hottest years ever recorded. According to the United Nations.55. it creates infrared radiation. (summa cum laude) from Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. Today. The remainder will stay in the air for decades to come. and it causes population migrations fueling political instability and failed states. 2005. it has soared to 387 ppm. sea levels would rise about twenty feet around the world. containing 4. which is prevented from escaping by the glass.

These ice cores were then cut in various slices so they could be examined. Most of the country is flat and at sea level. They found that temperature and carbon dioxide levels have oscillated in parallel. one can use them to determine how old that layer is. When I visited their laboratory. Normally. I shuddered to realize that I was seeing air bubbles that were deposited tens of thousands of years ago. Each hollow tube had been drilled deep into the ice of a glacier. Large parts of Manhattan may have to be evacuated. But upon closer examination.) About 50 percent of the land area will be permanently flooded if sea levels rise by three feet. one can calculate the temperature at which the water molecule condensed. The worst situation is that of Bangladesh. so does the other. the economy grinds to a halt. Computer simulations are now so advanced that we can simulate the temperature of the earth with and without the presence of human activity. This unusual spike is not part of this natural heating process. Lastly. the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. When I peered into one slice under a microscope. Water molecules can contain different isotopes. But calculating the temperature of the air when the ice was first deposited is more difficult. with Wall Street underwater. even before the rise of human civilization. I could see racks and racks containing long metal tubes. the terrain makes the Arctic an ideal place to analyze the climate of the earth hundreds of thousands of years ago. there is still the danger that large storms can send surges of water into a city. but in September 1998. Even if some cities can be salvaged. There are other ways to show that this sudden spike is caused by human activity. they found a sudden spike in temperature and carbon dioxide content happening just within the last century. one can measure the amount of sunlight that lands on every square foot of the earth’s surface. But in reality. by midcentury. Some cities may be saved via a combination of sophisticated dikes and water gates. This is highly unusual. As the tube penetrated the ice. we can show that there should be a sudden spike in both temperature and carbon dioxide. even if we were to suddenly stop producing any carbon dioxide. Since the dates of these eruptions are known to great accuracy. leaving 30 million people homeless almost . paralyzing the subway system and trains to New Jersey. When the tubes were removed. since most fluctuations occur slowly over millennia. in synchronization over many thousands of years. human activity is causing the current heating of the earth. Hence. it is still one of the poorest nations on earth. As the temperature falls.) Finally. creating mass migrations of people. scientists claim. each about an inch and a half in diameter and about ten feet long.Gonzaga Debate Institute 88 Warming Core you see is snow and jagged rock. Other cities may be deemed hopeless and allowed to vanish under the ocean. after painfully analyzing the contents of thousands of ice cores. with input equaling output. Then if we calculate the amount of energy being produced by human activity. we expect these two amounts to be equal. Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to the ocean. At first. in 1992 a huge storm surge flooded Manhattan. such as the soot emitted from a volcanic eruption. As a result. by measuring the amount of the heavier isotopes. and not natural cycles. comparable to that of Russia. but with 1/120 of the land area. we find the net amount of energy that is currently heating the earth. Scientists have to use a variety of techniques to date them. Most important. the gas that has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warming for decades to come. we find a relatively flat temperature curve. Scientists can also calculate the amount of heat that is reflected into outer space from the earth. Massive flooding submerged two-thirds of the nation. I could carefully examine the icy contents of each. (To do this. Coastal cities may disappear. microscopic bubbles. Although barren and forbidding. which is kept at freezing temperatures. resembling the bleak landscape of the moon. I could see that the ice had stripes made of tiny bands of different colors. like two roller coasters moving together. Once inside. I had to pass through thick refrigerator doors. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated three hot spots for potential disaster: Bangladesh. it captured samples from snows that had fallen thousands of years ago. Governments will have to decide which of their great cities and capitals are worth saving and which are beyond hope. but is a direct indicator of human activity . For example. all I could see was a long column of white ice. (It has a population of 161 million. With transportation flooded. Some of the ice layers contain markers indicating important events. a country regularly flooded by storms even without global warming. the world witnessed in horror a preview of what may become commonplace. Although it has made significant gains in the last few decades. But with the addition of human activity. and the Nile Delta in Egypt. Unfortunately. The predicted spike fits the actual spike perfectly. these scientists have come to some important conclusions. heavier water isotopes condense faster than ordinary water molecules. Scientists have created pictures of what our coastal cities will look like at midcentury and beyond if sea levels continue to rise. The carbon dioxide content within each air bubble is easily measured. the situation could be dire. with one of the highest population densities. Without civilization producing carbon dioxide. When one curve rises or falls. I saw tiny. scientists analyze the water in the bubble. paralyzing its infrastructure. we find a perfect match. Hence. Natural calamities occur there almost every year.

and chaos. Methane gas.Gonzaga Debate Institute 89 Warming Core overnight.000 miles of roads were destroyed. By midcentury. If millions are flooded out of their homes in Vietnam. chaos could spread around the world due to global warming. and 6. This tundra contains more carbon dioxide and methane than the atmosphere. But one-fourth of the city will also be underwater. Peter Schwartz. In a major crisis in Bangladesh. when faced with the prospect of the influx of millions of desperate people. As millions of refugees cross national borders. The Mekong Delta will also be flooded with salt water.” the report said. up to 160 million people could be driven out of their homes. is a much deadlier greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. in a worst-case scenario. we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. permanently destroying the fertile soil of the area. It does not stay in the atmosphere as long. and China—all armed with nuclear weapons—skirmishing at their borders over refugees. which will cause even more methane gas to be released. and mass rioting breaks out. For example. that showed that. This was one of the worst natural disasters in modern history. 1. may resort to nuclear weapons. Another country that would be devastated by a rise in sea level is Vietnam. Tundra covers nearly 9 million square miles of land in the Northern Hemisphere. governments could lose all authority and collapse. nations. where the Mekong Delta is particularly vulnerable. so countries could descend into the nightmare of looting. and much of it will be flooded permanently by rising sea levels. founder of the Global Business Network and a principal author of the Pentagon study. done by the Global Business Network. causing a runaway cycle of global warming. the melting of the tundra in the Arctic regions may release millions of tons of methane gas from rotting vegetation. In this desperate situation. According to the World Bank. rioting. local governments are paralyzed. but it causes much more damage than carbon dioxide.000 were killed. He told me that the biggest hot spot would be the border between India and Bangladesh. The release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to rapidly rise. In a worst-case scenario. . sparking one of the greatest migrations in human history. India. Tensions could rapidly rise as borders collapse. and this poses an enormous threat to the world’s weather. many will flock to Ho Chi Minh City seeking refuge. Half the rice in Vietnam is grown in the Mekong Delta. home to 17 million people. “Envision Pakistan. moreover. containing vegetation frozen since the last Ice Age tens of thousands of years ago. access to shared rivers. confided to me the details of this scenario. Schwartz sees that nations may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study. 11 percent of the entire population would be displaced if sea levels rise by three feet by midcentury. and arable land. this country of 87 million people could face a collapse of its main food-growing area.

sanitation and clean water are critical aspects to remediating the struc. tensions over dwindling water supplies and rising populations are reaching what many experts describe as a flashpoint.com/development/journal/v50/n2/full/1100376a.cule capital to protect their vulnerable citizens and educate their children.day perpetuated by radical. the coercion by international financial in.palgravejournals. when they would rather invest their minus.html Current global inequalities are often the legacies of oppression. these recipient coun. then we may destroy ourselves with the C-bomb. “The Next One Hundred Years: Shaping Fate of Our Living Earth. revitalizing the public health infrastructure and improving the delivery of es.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 90 Warming Bad – Water Water Shortages are a form of structural violence driven by colonialism and present day corporations plan breaks down oppression Mukherjee 7 — Joia S Mukherjee.stitutions of poor governments to restrict health spending only serves to deepen inequalities in health care and perpetuate social injustice. colonialism and slavery.sentials such as vaccination. In poor countries.dress the violations of the basic right to health must recognize that more money is needed for health now. Poverty and the AIDS Pandemic” http://www. . enforcing policies such as user fees for health and primary education. Further.” p214) If we do not destroy ourselves with the A-bomb and the H-bomb. large-scale international assistance that poor governments will be able to address the right to health in a sustained way. “Structural Violence.tutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank force poor governments. 2007. And in a world as interlinked as ours.tries are instead forced to march in lock step to. to decrease their public sector budgets. and are to.000 nuclear warheads the world has stockpiled since Trinity.national financial policies that foment poor health. one explosion may lead to the other. the Change Bomb. Visiting Professor of Molecular Biology at Princeton University.more. from North Africa to the Persian Gulf and from the Nile to the Euphrates.tural violence that underlies disease. Advocacy to re.ward the ‘free’ market. A climate shift in the single battlescarred nexus might trigger international tensions that will unleash some of the 60. Medical Director of Partners in Health. and for decades to come. It is only with ongoing. market-driven inter. Water wars will go nuclear Weiner 90 (Jonathan. as the recipients of qualified loans. Already in the Middle East. privatize health services and. Neo-liberal economic ‘reforms’ imposed on poor countries by international financial insti.

Both will also be suffering the effects of deglaciation in their upper reaches. Two of the Indus River's major tributaries-the Chenab and the Sutlej-arise in India and flow into Pakistan.) With India particularly dependent on hydroelectric power generation. Environmental Journalist. Conflicts may well break out between these two nuclear-armed countries as water supplies dwindle and political leaders quarrel over how much can be stored behind dams in upstream reservoirs. . dwindling summer flows may lead to blackouts and energy shortages during the hottest months of the year. 2008 (Mark National Geographic “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet National” 336p.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 91 XT – Water Water shortages will lead to conflict and nuclear war between India and Pakistan Lynas.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 92 Warming Good .

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 93 Defense .

just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals.) The second question asked: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” So what constitutes “significant”? Does “changing” include both cooling and warming… and for both “better” and “worse”? And which contributions…does this include land use changes. Of the about 3. Not only has our planet stopped warming. Prof at Univ of Houston.000 scientists have signed apetition agreeing with the fact that there is no scientific evidence or consensus that man-made global warming exists while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has the support of only 2. 82% answered “yes” to the second question.Not!. cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. http://www. in the foreseeable future. That anything-but-scientific survey asked two questions. . Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture. do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen. or other greenhouse gases is causing or will. New data shows that in fact the Earth has not warmed at all over the last 15 years. have signed a public petition announcing their belief that “…there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide.com/articles/3824/a-really-inconvenient-truth-global-warming-is-not-real) Sixteen prominent scientists recently signed an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal expressing their belief that the theory of global warming is not supported by sci ence." Forbes. botanists. only a small subset. Why did we all hop on board the global warming bandwagon started by politicians when the scientific community didn’t back it? Since 1998. geologists.000 American scientists from diverse climate-related disciplines. The report suggests we are headed toward a new solar cycle.257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois.D. or remained relatively constant?” Few would be expected to dispute this…the planet began thawing out of the “Little Ice Age” in the middle 19th century. This data largely contradicts the accepted theory among the public that carbon dioxide pollution is causing global warming and even proposes that we are actually heading toward global cooling.000 SCIENTISTS AGREE PolicyMic No date (Policymic. and meteorologists . This has not been getting the attention it deserves because politicians (looking at you Al Gore) are frankly embarrassed to admit that they are wrong about the phenomenon known as global warming.s.policymic. 31.. but we may be headed toward a vast cooling period.forbes. after taking data from nearly 30.000 who responded. "That Scientific Global Warming Consensus.com “A really inconvenient Truth: Global Warming is Not Real” No date http://www. Yet.31. In fact. 7/17/2012. which NASA scientists have predicted will be significantly cooler than Cycle 24 which we are in now. fallen. Then of those.000 stations around the world. That “98% all scientists” referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered “yes”.30. for some reason it is accepted that global warming is scientifically undeniable. such as agriculture and deforestation? WARMING NOT REAL . were considered in their survey statistic. The first: “When compared with pre-1800s levels. two question online survey sent to 10.” Included are atmospheric physicists. So where did that famous “consensus” claim that “98% of all scientists believe in global warming” come from? It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-minute.500 scientists. have found that the earth stopped warming in 1997.. most people I know would also have agreed with. more than 31. Cycle 25.000 scientists signed a petition saying warming is flat-out nonexistent . including more than 9. methane.com/sites/larrybell/2012/07/17/that-scientificglobal-warming-consensus-not/2/) Since 1998. (That was the coldest period since the last real Ice Age ended roughly 10. I share the same frustration in the political and scientific community that the sixteen scientists express.000 with Ph. the Daily Mail reports that the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit.000 years ago.their data is skewed Bell 12 (Larry Bell.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 94 Warming Fake – Generic Warming not real . oceanographers. which like the first. predating the Industrial Revolution.

even the UN computer models on which they were based . Credentials don't get any more impeccable. It shows two phenomena surprising to the apostles of doom in the scientific and political community. This is especially true over the oceans. and those of NASA's ERBS satellite show similar patterns of heat exhange for the years 1985 to 1999. Wilson The latest satellite gathered information is consistent with NOAA and NASA data showing humidity and the formation of cirrus clouds has lagged far behind alarmist predictions as well. 2012 7:48 AM | 7 Comments James A. and a lot more of it is being released naturally into space. There is much less heat being trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases . Taylor. In other words. we are simply not going to hell in a climate change hand basket. Remote Sensing.or any other cause . reported in the peer reviewed journal.than the models portend. 2012 7:48 AM | 7 Comments James A. James M. correlates data from 2000 through 2011. The study.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 95 Their quals argument don’t apply here Wilson ’12 (GLOBAL WARMING: THE SATELLITES DON'T LIE March 3.are dead wrong. These findings. a senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment and Climate News authored the Forbes article. Consensus of NASA and NOAA satellite data shows no warming Wilson ’12 (GLOBAL WARMING: THE SATELLITES DON'T LIE March 3. Wilson Over the summer Forbes Magazine published NASA satellite data indicating the alarmist predictions . .

former NASA climatologist and author. The 1st possibility (aerosol cooling is cancelling out GHG forcing) is one of the more popular explanations with the climate modelers. along with their likely influence on global cloud cover changing the amount of solar input into the climate system. at least theoretically. and especially with NASA’s James Hansen. Unfortunately. Warming not anthropogenic based on Earth’s natural cycles De Blij 9 (Harm. etc. atmospheric – that generate nature’s environmental seesaws continue even as humanity has become a major factor in the process through massive modification of the planetary atmosphere. some combination of the above 5 explanations is also possible. and that there have been previous 10-year periods without warming. I believe much of past climate change on time scales of decades to many centuries might be due to such variations in ocean mixing. I don’t think there is a certain number of years – 5. The 3rd possibility (increased ocean mixing) is one of the more legitimate possibilities. we do not know with any satisfactory level of confidence what form climate change would be taking today in the absence of human interference. most if not all temperature datasets show little or no global-average warming recently.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 96 Warming Fake – Not Anthro Not anthropogenic – multiple warrants Spencer 12 (Roy.drroyspencer. This kind of scientific finding would normally be Nobel Prize territory…except that the Nobel Prize has become humans might not be destroying the Earth. No. at the surface. So might the greenhouse-effect-enhancing gases we are pouring into the atmosphere counter a cooling trend rather than exacerbate a warming swing? No doubt about it: the numerous cycles – axial. The 5th possibility (increasing GHGs don’t really cause warming) is total anathema to the IPCC. as is aerosol cooling. and that reducing the rate of pollution of the atmosphere should have priority as a public health as well as environmental matter.com/2012/02/) As can be seen. There are 5 possibilities for the recent cessation of warming which are most discussed: 1) cooling from anthropogenic aerosols has been cancelling out warming from more greenhouse gases 2) natural cooling from internal climate fluctuations or the sun is cancelling out the GHG warming 3) increased ocean mixing is causing the extra energy to be distributed into the deep ocean 4) the temperature ’sensitivity’ of the climate system is not as large as the IPCC assumes. how vertical mixing in the ocean naturally varies over time is poorly understood. Dick Lindzen. orbital. For example. is author of The Power of Place: Geography. with only politically correct recipients. http://www. or in the upper 700 meters of the ocean. We can’t have that. we are supposedly in uncharted territory with a maximum in radiative forcing of the climate system. John A. solar. and a few other climate researchers who work in this field. But one would need more observational evidence this is happening before embracing the idea. “Ten Years After the Warming. Then you would have to consider the possibility that most of the warming in the last 50 years was natural. It’s popular with NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth. Contrary to what some scientists are asserting.” 2/26. and Globalization (Oxford University Press. Destiny. The self-flagellating elites don’t like the idea science of AGW…. Hannah Professor of Geography at Michigan State University. – which will disprove the more of a socio-political award in recent years. the different IPCC models have widely varying strengths of mixing. and thus the fear of strong future warming if those aerosols ever dissipate. But don’t expect a . The longer we go without significant warming. Eek! But I personally doubt that will happen. AGW funding. here are the tropospheric temperatures up though a few days ago: So what is happening? You cannot simply say a lack of warming in 10 years is not that unusual. 2009). The 2nd possibility (natural cooling) is a much less desirable explanation for the IPCC crowd because it opens the door to Mother Nature having as much or more influence on the climate system than do humans. no one knows the proportional contribution to the current phase of climate change from natural and human sources. What is clear is that humans have become an additional factor driving climate change. you know. either in the atmosphere. 5) there is something fundamentally wrong with the GHG warming theory itself Of course. The 4th possibility (the climate system is relatively insensitive to forcing) is the top contender in the opinion of myself. Without GHG warming. the more obvious it will become that there is something seriously wrong with current AGW theory. too.unless the climate system cools for the next 10 years. 10. too. and so ocean mixing is a huge wild card in the global warming debate. Using an assumed large aerosol cooling to cancel out the GHG warming allows the modelers to retain high climate sensitivity. Yet. Goodbye. the whole AGW movement collapses. The uncertain strength (and even sign) of aerosol forcing allows the climate modelers to use aerosols as a tuning knob (aka fudge factor) in making their models produce warming more-or-less consistent with past observations. But supercomputer models and IPCC projections notwithstanding. 20. in the last 10 years the estimated forcing has been the strongest. One cannot compare on an equal basis the last 10 years with any previous decades without warming. oceanic.

and civilizations will flourish and fail. . Glaciers will wax and wane.” Ice ages will continue to come and go. Nature’s power will prevail .Gonzaga Debate Institute 97 Warming Core reward in the form of “stopping climate change. cultures. Sea levels will fall and rise. Species.

these fudged alarmist rates do not agree with real-life observations.7 inches per century — all while carbon dioxide concentrations in the air have risen by a third. who runs the climate skeptic blog NoTricksZone. According to the National Institutes of Health.¶ The results echoed a study conducted last year. suggests the temperatures should have risen by 0. “The more alarmist sea level rise rates some have claimed recently stem from the use of statistical tricks and the very selective use of data.¶ “In fact. nonflammable chemicals containing atoms of carbon. I have to admit.” said Qing-Bin Lu. citing data regarding the Earth’s rate of rotation. But we have observed data going back to the Industrial Revolution that convincingly shows that conventional understanding is wrong. chlorine. claims a new study out of the University of Waterloo.com/2013/05/30/report-co2-not-responsible-for-global-warming/2/” Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) — not carbon emissions — are the real culprit behind global warming.’ writes global warming blogger Anthony Watt. Scientists say that carbon dioxide levels must be lowered to 350 ppm to avoid the severe impacts of global warming.CFC’S ARE Bastasch 5/30/13 (Michael Bastach. and fluorine” that are used to make “aerosol sprays. a science professor at the University of Waterloo and author of the study. as solvents.¶ Ads by Google¶ CFCs “are nontoxic. he probably had no idea that curbing carbon dioxide emissions might not lower the sea levels. Overall the latest computed rates show that there is absolutely nothing to be alarmed about.” Watt added. “But. the data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the polar ozone hole and global warming. “REPORT: CO2 IS NOT RESPOSNIBLE FOR GLOBAL WARMING” May 30. and are merely continuing their modest rise at an unchanged rate. like carbon dioxide. which contributes to global warming.¶ “The 400-ppm threshold is a sobering milestone and should serve as a wake-up call for all of us to support clean-energy technology and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases before it’s too late for our children and grandchildren. similar to the period of 1970-2002. This was also suggested by two other studies conducted in the last decade.¶ Lu’s study runs counter to the long-standing argument that carbon dioxide emissions were the driving force behind global warming.7 mm/year over the last 110 years.” reads the study’s press release. including both land-ice and land-water contributions. “While plausible.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 98 Warming Fake – CO2 Not key CO2 IS NOT THE SOURCE OF GLOBAL WARMING -.¶ A study published in the Journal of Geodesy found that the sea level has only risen by 1. Recently scientists warned that carbon concentrations were nearing the 400 parts per million level. and worth funding.” When Barack Obama promised to slow the earth’s rising sea levels and heal the planet during the 2008 campaign. for 19 continental areas that exhibited significant signals” over a nine-year period from 2002 to 2011.7 millimeters per year over the last 110 years — about 6.”¶ Other experts agree. The Montreal Protocol phased out the production of CFCs as they were believed to be linked to ozone depletion. and as refrigerants” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2013 http://dailycaller. suggesting that rising carbon concentrations have not impacted the rate at which sea levels are rising.” Lu said.” said Tim Lueker. global temperatures stayed constant.¶ “For the last 40-50 years strong observational facts indicate virtually stable sea level conditions. because they absorb heat in the atmosphere and send some of it back to the earth’s surface. “From the University of Waterloo. Fortunately.¶ The study used data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment satellite mission and analyzed “continental mass variations on a global scale. the graph is visually compelling.¶ “The latest results show once again that sea levels are not accelerating after all.¶ Lu notes that data from 1850 to 1970 show carbon emissions increasing due to the Industrial Revolution. an oceanographer and carbon cycle researcher who is a member of the Scripps CO2 Group. However. which also found that sea level has been rising on average by 1. But to determine if his proposed cosmic-ray-driven electron-reaction mechanism is valid. and the radiative forcings they add are small by comparison to CO2.¶ “Conventional thinking says that the emission of human-made non-CFC gases such as carbon dioxide has mainly contributed to global warming.¶ “The conventional warming model of CO2. due to the fact that CFC’s have very high [Global Warming Potential] numbers. I’d say it is a case of ‘further study is needed’. blowing agents for foams and packing materials. former head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics . CFCs are considered a greenhouse gas.6°C over the same period. an extraordinary claim.” said Pierre Gosselin.” “This may be nothing more than coincidental correlation. their atmospheric concentrations compared to CO2 are quite low.” writes Nils-Axel Mörner.¶ Ads by Google¶ Ads by CouponDropDown ¶ Lu’s findings were published in the International Journal of Modern Physics B and analyzed data from 1850 to the present.

to slightly falling. Florida Keys residents are also concerned about sea levels by the island that have risen 9 inches in the past decade.Gonzaga Debate Institute 99 Warming Core department at Stockholm University . The state has already seen sea levels rise by about a foot in the past century — half coming from the natural sinking of the land and the other half coming from rising seas from a warming ocean.¶ A report by 21 U. in the Journal Energy and Environment. maybe even triple. found that the sea levels are rising faster than they predicted five years ago. U. and that waters surrounding the city could rise by 2 feet or more¶ New York City can “do nothing and expose ourselves to an increasing frequency of Sandy-like storms that do more and more damage. and instead suggests stable.” said Donald Boesch. but the study’s authors said that it would be prudent to plan for a two-foot rise in sea levels to account for the risks of flooding caused by storms. more resilient New York — investments that will pay for themselves many times over in the years go to come.¶ New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has also announced a $20 billion plan to adapt to global warming to prepare the city for rising sea levels and hotter summers. according to a tidal gauge that has operated since pre-Civil War days. president of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. scientists.¶ A report commissioned by New York City found that the number of sweltering summer days could double.” .S. coastal states have been more concerned about the possible effects of global warming on rising sea levels.” Bloomberg remarked. “We’ve got tide gauges that show us sea level is increasing. Martin O’Malley. sea levels.S. “Or we can make the investments necessary to build a stronger. commissioned by Maryland Democratic Gov. We should take it seriously and have to plan for it. contradicting all claims of a rapid global sea level rise. This is a real phenomenon.”¶ The Maryland report found that ocean waters and the Chesapeake Bay might only rise about one foot by 2050. ”The Earth’s rate of rotation records a mean acceleration from 1972 to 2012.¶ “It doesn’t need a lot of rocket science.”¶ But in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.

reveals that net GDP per capita in developing countries in 2100 would be double the 2006 level of the U. which is determined by.pdf Decades-long empirical trends of climate-sensitive measures of human well-being. The IPCC‘s embrace of biofuels as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was premature. among other things.org/reports/2011/pdf/FrontMatter. and is unlikely to ever meet more than a small fraction of the world‘s demand for fuels. the climate. S.nipccreport.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 100 XT – Adaptation Tech and adaptive advances prevent all climate impacts---warming won’t cause war Singer et al 11. . poverty rates. as many researchers have found ―even the best biofuels have the potential to damage the poor. global cooling has led to wars and social unrest in the past. and maintain technologies necessary to cope with or take advantage of climate change impacts. and Association of American Geographers. notwithstanding the historic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. American Geophysical Union. even developing countries‘ future ability to cope with climate change would be much better than that of the U. Fred Research Fellow at The Independent Institute. Idso. Even accepting the IPCC‘s and Stern Review‘s worst-case scenarios. and a Member of the International Academy of Astronautics. Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia. but even backwards – that is. President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. today. Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia). prosperity. founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Dr. including the percent of developing world population suffering from chronic hunger. stratigrapher. Arizona-Nevada Academy of Sciences. Thus. palaeontologist. et al. 2010).S. The IPCC systematically underestimates adaptive capacity by failing to take into account the greater wealth and technological advances that will be present at the time for which impacts are to be estimated. member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. whereas global warming has coincided with periods of peace. and social stability. Robert M. “Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report. American Meteorological Society. and triple that level in 2200. and assuming a compounded annual growth rate of per-capita GDP of only 0. The notion that global warming might cause war and social unrest is not only wrong.7 percent. 2011. Carter. a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. and Craig D. marine geologist and environmental scientist with more than thirty years professional experience. Biofuel production consumes nearly as much energy as it generates. and biodiversity‖ (Delucchi. install. and deaths due to extreme weather events. reveal dramatic improvement during the twentieth century.” online: http://www. operate. the wealth and human resources society can access in order to obtain. competes with food crops and wildlife for land. The magnitude of the impacts of climate change on human well-being depends on society‘s adaptability (adaptive capacity).S.

we are simply not going to hell in a climate change hand basket. Consensus of NASA and NOAA satellite data shows no warming Wilson ’12 (GLOBAL WARMING: THE SATELLITES DON'T LIE March 3. Taylor. This is especially true over the oceans. It shows two phenomena surprising to the apostles of doom in the scientific and political community. The study. correlates data from 2000 through 2011.than the models portend.even the UN computer models on which they were based . In other words. a senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment and Climate News authored the Forbes article. Credentials don't get any more impeccable.are dead wrong. Wilson The latest satellite gathered information is consistent with NOAA and NASA data showing humidity and the formation of cirrus clouds has lagged far behind alarmist predictions as well. 2012 7:48 AM | 7 Comments James A. 2012 7:48 AM | 7 Comments James A. James M.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 101 XT – No Warming Their quals argument don’t apply here Wilson ’12 (GLOBAL WARMING: THE SATELLITES DON'T LIE March 3. . Wilson Over the summer Forbes Magazine published NASA satellite data indicating the alarmist predictions . reported in the peer reviewed journal. There is much less heat being trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases .or any other cause . Remote Sensing. and those of NASA's ERBS satellite show similar patterns of heat exhange for the years 1985 to 1999. and a lot more of it is being released naturally into space. These findings.

do provide positive feedback . However. Spencer's interpretation of the new data means all previous models and forecasts are obsolete. . While I have done my best to simplify these developments they remain highly technical and many people distrust their own ability to assess competing scientific claims.this renders their evidence obselete McShane 8 (Owen.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 102 XT – Negative Feedbacks Solves History proves that water vapor is a negative feedback. is known for being benignly warm .while we do not hear about Heat Ages. Lexis) The climate is not highly sensitive to CO2 warming because water vapour is a damper against the warming effect of CO2.not dangerously hot. the chairman of the policy panel of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition and director of the Center for Resource Management Studies. such as increased reflection from the ice cover. for example. The new Nasa Aqua satellite is the first to measure the effects of clouds and rainfall.except when it occasionally gets damned cold. The National Business Review (New Zealand). The responses will be fun to watch. Would anyone trust long-term forecasts of farm production that were hopeless at forecasting rainfall? The implications of these breakthroughs in measurement and understanding are dramatic to say the least.where other effects. in this case the tipping point theories are based on models that do not include the effects of rain and clouds. 4-4-8. We live on a benign planet . That is why history is full of Ice Ages . “Climate change confirmed but global warming is cancelled”. The Medieval Warm Period.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 103 Impact Defense .

In this paper. “Persistence of Climate Changes Due To A Range Of Greenhouse Gases. The key role of the ocean’s thermal lag has also been highlighted by recent approaches to proposed metrics for comparing the warming of different greenhouse gases (8.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2972948/] Carbon dioxide. although the Bern 2. 6 and 7). until much slower weathering processes affect the carbonate balance in the ocean (e.5CC model being about 19 4% at year 1000 after a pulse emission. 9). Recent studies have shown that the human-caused warming linked to carbon dioxide is nearly irreversible for more than 1. we use the Bern 2.000 y.. It follows that the climate changes induced by short-lived anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as methane or hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) may not decrease in concert with decreases in concentration if the anthropogenic emissions of those gases were to be eliminated. It should be noted that. through reduced land and ocean uptake of carbon in a warmer world. National Academy of Sciences. Results One Illustrative Scenario to 2050. particularly to examine phenomena on a global average basis. even if emissions of the gas were to cease entirely (2–5). our primary goal is to show how different processes and timescales contribute to determining how long the climate changes due to various greenhouse gases could be expected to remain if anthropogenic emissions were to cease. If emissions were to cease. refs. and the Bern 2. A recent study (17) explored the response of one AOGCM to a sudden stop of all forcing. with carbon dioxide being the most important single radiative forcing agent (1).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 104 Warming Uniqueness – Inevitable Cease in Gases Won’t Stop Warming From Being Inevitable Solomon. its global ocean heat uptake and climate sensitivity are near the mean of available complex models.ncbi. 15). The importance of the ocean in taking up heat and slowing the response of the climate system to radiative forcing changes has been noted in many studies (e.. further. which has been extensively intercompared to other EMICs and to complex AOGCMs (3.5CC EMIC (see Materials and Methods and SI Text). includes 14 levels in the ocean. although there are also differences in detail. Thus the observed climate response to volcanic events suggests that some persistence of climate change should be expected even for quite short-lived radiative forcing perturbations. About 20% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years (with a range across models including the Bern 2. The climate sensitivity (which characterizes the long-term absolute warming response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) is 3 °C for the model used here. Here our focus is not on the strength of carbon/climate feedbacks that can lead to differences in the carbon concentration decay. it is noteworthy that this EMIC. methane. the simpler EMICs have been shown to be useful.g. methane. Fig. Advances in modeling have led to improved AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) as well as to Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). and other greenhouse gases increased over the course of the 20th century due to human activities. http://www. 19). but rather on .5CC EMIC includes a representation of the surface and deep ocean.5CC EMIC shows broad similarities in computed warming to that study (see Fig. see ref. and nitrous oxide can be expected to increase in this century. Over centuries to millennia. concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases. 18).nih.nlm. The human-caused increases in these gases are the primary forcing that accounts for much of the global warming of the past fifty years. carbon dioxide. and a portion can be expected to last more than a century in the ocean (11–13). although parameterized and simplified. Our results should be considered illustrative and exploratory rather than fully quantitative given the limitations of the EMIC and the uncertainties in climate sensitivity. it does not include processes such as ice sheet losses or changes in the Earth’s albedo linked to evolution of vegetation. In the absence of mitigation policy. 10). However. S2 showing how the removal of a pulse of carbon compares across a range of models).g. Among the observations attesting to the importance of these effects are those showing that climate changes caused by transient volcanic aerosol loading persist for more than 5 y (7. Atmospheric Chemist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . anthropogenic CO2 would be removed from the atmosphere by a series of processes operating at different timescales (18). both the land and upper ocean are important sinks. 11-11-10. Models with stronger carbon/climate feedbacks than the one considered here could display larger and more persistent warmings due to both CO2 and nonCO2 greenhouse gases. Over timescales of decades. ref. 4). In this work. and its computed timescales for uptake of tracers into the ocean have been shown to compare well to observations (16). for example. Although a detailed representation of the climate system changes on regional scales can only be provided by AOGCMs. deep oceanic processes become dominant and are controlled by relatively well-understood physics and chemistry that provide broad consistency across models (see. clearly these signals persist far longer than the radiative forcing decay timescale of about 12–18 mo for the volcanic aerosol (14. nitrous oxide. 2010 [Susan. S1).

the anthropogenic emissions are stopped entirely for illustration purposes. which currently warms Europe by transporting heat from the tropics. 26). 1 shows the computed future global warming contributions for carbon dioxide. and there will be proportionately even more sea level rise. Radiative forcings for all three of these gases. which use multiple EMICs and one AOGCM. A number of recent studies have underscored the important point that reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions are an approach that can indeed reverse some past climate changes (e. Warming is Ineluctable Longley.”¶ “Many people don’t realize we are committed right now to a significant amount of global warming and sea level rise because of the greenhouse gases we have already put into the atmosphere. Understanding how quickly such reversal could happen and why is an important policy and science question. 25. such as the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation (21). The removal processes of other anthropogenic gases including methane and nitrous oxide are much more simply described by exponential decay constants of about 10 and 114 y. whose work was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). by showing normalized values (relative to one at their peaks) of the warming along with the radiative forcings and concentrations of CO2 . Even so. US Government Info. In 2050. Colo. as in previous work.” says Cliff Jacobs of NSF’s atmospheric sciences division.¶ . Fig. In this illustrative study. Environmental Protection Agent [Robert.about. which could at least double the sea-level rise caused by thermal expansion alone. “Even if we stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. according to a new study performed by a team of climate modelers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. are represented in this work using the expressions assessed in ref. even if no more greenhouse gases were added to the atmosphere. 1 in more detail.000 y (3–5. but the projected sea level rise is more than twice the 3-inch (5-centimeter) rise that was observed then. N2O. and CH4 . respectively (1). we do not include the feedback of changes in methane upon its own lifetime (20). the climate will continue to warm. We also do not account for potential interactions between CO2 and other gases. and their spectral overlaps. show largely irreversible warming due to future carbon dioxide increases (to within about 0.Gonzaga Debate Institute 105 Warming Core the factors that control the climate response to a given decay. Fig. The figure shows nearly irreversible warming for at least 1. The longer we wait. Fig. And the resulting transfer of heat into the oceans would cause global sea levels to rise another 4 inches (11 centimeters) from thermal expansion alone.. e.000 y due to the imposed carbon dioxide increases.g.htm] Despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.5 °C) on a timescale of at least 1. Moreover. these forecasts do not take into account any fresh water from melting ice sheets and glaciers. or changes to the carbon cycle through.¶ Indeed. 2 °C as proposed by the G8 group of nations and in the Copenhagen goals) and remains present longer than the gas lifetimes even if emissions were to cease. and nitrous oxide for a midrange scenario (23) of projected future anthropogenic emissions of these gases to 2050. For example. Europe heats up along with the rest of the planet because of the overwhelming effect of greenhouse gases.”¶ The half-degree temperature rise predicted by the NCAR modelers is similar to what was actually observed by the end of the 20th century. globally averaged surface air temperatures would still rise one degree Fahrenheit (about a half degree Celsius) by the year 2100. ref. despite the fact that its excess concentration and associated radiative forcing at that time has dropped to about one-third of the peak value. The figure illustrates that emissions of key nonCO2 greenhouse gases such as CH4 or N2O could lead to warming that both temporarily exceeds a given stabilization target (e. Fig. http://usgovinfo. the more climate change we are committed to in the future.. 24. say the researchers. 1 implies that the use of policy measures to reduce emissions of short-lived gases will be less effective as a rapid climate mitigation strategy than would be thought if based only upon the gas lifetime. due mainly to known chemical reactions in the atmosphere.” says lead author Jerry Meehl. methane/ozone chemistry (22).¶ The team's findings are published in this week's issue of the journal "Science. 27).com/od/technologyandresearch/a/climatetochange. methane. global warming and a greater increase in sea level are inevitable during this century. 2 illustrates the factors influencing the warming contributions of each gas for the test case in Fig. about two-thirds of the calculated warming due to N2O is still present 114 y (one atmospheric lifetime) after emissions are halted.. All published studies to date.g."¶ “This study is another in a series that employs increasingly sophisticated simulation techniques to understand the complex interactions of the Earth.¶ The models also predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.g. “These studies often yield results that are not revealed by simpler approaches and highlight unintended consequences of external factors interacting with Earth’s natural systems. 1 shows that the calculated future warmings due to anthropogenic CH4 and N2O also persist notably longer than the lifetimes of these gases.

as he continues.nationalgeographic. As noted by Lee (2011).Gonzaga Debate Institute 106 Warming Core Though the study finds signs that the temperature rise will level off some 100 years after the greenhouse gases stabilize. 1991) reached similar conclusions. http://co2science. Green House Gases Are Too Abundant. Global Warming Unstoppable For 100 Years. 2005 [John. Mass Reduction of Green House Gases Won’t Cease Warming Idso. he ends by stating "I am left with the feeling that a healthy skepticism of the climate change industry might not be such a bad thing. causing global sea level to rise unabated.com/news/2005/03/0317_050317_warming." suggesting that people see.php] It has long been the practice of the world's climate alarmists to promote fear about the future in terms of anthropogenic-CO2-induced increases in various types of climatic extremes. 12-11." However.org/articles/V14/N50/EDIT. for a 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas forcing scenario." So what did he find?¶ As Lee describes it. Fisheries and Food (MAFF. National Geographic News. he states that "predictions of 20-year recession distances made in the early 1990s that took account of the RSLR advice from MAFF (1991) are likely to have overestimated the risk to cliff-top property and the benefits of coast protection. I feel somewhat awkward about the absence of accelerated cliff recession over the last two decades. http://news.. in this regard.¶ Researchers used computer models of the global climate system to put numbers to the concept of thermal inertia—the idea that global climate changes are delayed because it water takes longer to heat up and cool off than air does." Thus. Recent Reflection of Sea Level Rise Reflect Poorly On IPCC.. Founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.5 m/year by 2000." Thus." as reported by Houghton et al. 2002. Lee and Clark. from around 1. Lee. "there has been no significant acceleration in the rate of global sea-level rise since 1990 and no rapid increase in the recession rate. Leading To Warming Roach. 2011 [Craig." which was developed by the Ministry of Agriculture. 2005). Hall et al. Lee says it was widely predicted that the expected relative sea-level rise (RSLR) would result in an increase in wave energy at the base of coastal cliffs that would lead to accelerated cliff recession that "inevitably would lead to increased risk to properties behind actively retreating cliff-lines." And he also noted that "the Second World Climate Conference (Jager and Ferguson. which in the case of the British Isles was that there could be a [sea level] rise of between 50 and 70 cm over the next 100 years." and "so have Holderness cliff recession rates. "relative sea level has risen over the second half of the 20th century. for example. 2001. global sea level could rise by 8-29 cm by 2030 and 31-110 cm by 2100. (1990)." as their analysis pointed towards "a 22-133% increase in cliff recession rates on the south coast of England by 2050. Study Says. you are still committed to a certain ." acknowledging that "perhaps we were all too keen to accept the unquestioned authority of the IPCC and their projections."¶ In a candid expression of his feelings after conducting his analysis. it also finds that ocean waters will continue to warm and expand beyond then."¶ As a result of these projections. Keith. future rises in sea level were unavoidable owing to 'lags in the climate system'. the report of the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change that was edited by Idso and Singer (2009). Lee writes that "as someone who was heavily involved in providing technical support to policymakers through the research and development of methods for predicting cliff recession that took account of RSLR (see Lee et al. Lee decided to analyze the most recent 50-year recession records of the United Kingdom's Holderness Cliffs. which report also stated that "even with substantial decreases in the emissions of greenhouse gases. The oceans are the primary drivers of the global climate. stating that "twenty years on from the IPCC First Assessment Report seems an appropriate moment to reflect on what has actually happened."¶ Noting that "the IPCC projections set the framework for the coastal policy response to sea-level rise in England and Wales. "in 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested that. That's the message from two studies appearing in tomorrow's issue of the journalScience. and Sherwood. 2000.2 m/year in the early 1950s to around 1. 3-17-2005.html Even if humans stop burning oil and coal tomorrow—not likely—we've already spewed enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to cause temperatures to warm and sea levels to rise for at least another century." adding that Bray and Hooke (1997) suggested that "significant increases in recession rate could be expected to occur.¶ "Even if you stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases. 1991).

the more climate change you are committed to in the future.” April. overwhelming whatever actions the U nited States may take. That is not a record low—not quite. the West Antarctic ice sheet. Africa would see a great expansion of dry areas. These predict that if . Casualties would include more than the loss of indigenous ways of life in warming in the pipeline together have the Arctic and swamping of coastal cities. India and many other countries are rapidly increasing CO2 emissions.” Lexis) The Obama Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has ruled that carbon dioxide is a pollutant and. and there is probably less ice floating on the Arctic Ocean now than at any time since a particularly warm period 8.000 years). soon after the last ice age. Al Gore’s science advisor. or 1.¶ Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide collect in the atmosphere and are believed to act as a blanket. 2011) ON SEPTEMBER 9th. which is much harder to measure. new research is indicating that sunspot activity is much more important than CO2 when it comes to influencing the earth’s temperature. Rahn. and much of Greenland’s ice. and current wildlife. The underlying cause is believed by all but a handful of climatologists to be global warming brought about by greenhouse-gas emissions. senior fellow at the Cato Institute. and the additional brought us to the precipice of a planetary tipping point. Too late Rahn 11 (Richard W." said Gerald Meehl. But the actual record.6°C in the past 30 years. Ice melting irreversibly now FP 11 (Foreign Policy. September 24. particularly southern Africa. If we go over the edge. With rapid warming of 0. The Washington Times. Introductory chapter for the book State of the Wild. Head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at Columbia University. of the Arctic Ocean. global temperature is at its warmest level in the Holocene. 1/25/2011. cloudless skies and warm currents flowing up from mid-latitudes. This year has seen no such opposite of a perfect storm. it would be decades before there would be even a minor effect on global temperatures.there’s too much CO2 in the air even if we stop Hansen. it will cause a significant drop in U." Meehl said. An intensified hydrologic cycle will produce both greater floods and greater droughts. Colorado. Let us see if Mr. when satellite records began. More evidence. http://www. This is sobering when one considers the present status of Earth’s climate. Hanson. a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. the positive feedbacks that have been set in motion. but cool enough for ice sheets to remain on Greenland and Antarctica. people. “Tipping point: Perspective of a Scientist. Even if all new CO2 emissions were stopped globally. trapping heat and causing the Earth to warm.17m square km in 2007. To stop this warming. “Obama's regulatory reform test.67m square miles.Gonzaga Debate Institute 107 Warming Core amount of climate change no matter what you do because of the lag in the ocean. In the US. Little additional forcing is needed to trigger these feedbacks and magnify global warming. as a result. many scientists say humans must reduce the amount of greenhouse gases they emit. Now. economic growth and job creation. we will transition to an environment far outside the range that has been experienced by humanity. is estimated to have fallen by half since 1979. at the height of its summertime shrinkage. Large populations in Asia and South America would lose their primary dry season freshwater source as glaciers disappear.000 years ago. and there will be no return within any foreseeable future generation. If this continues. according to America's National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). Add in the fact that the thickness of the ice. more warming will occur . The EPA ban is nothing more than national economic suicide. It has been warm enough to keep ice sheets off North America and Europe.¶ Human activities that make the largest contributions to greenhouse gases include exhaust fumes from automobiles and commercial jets and emissions from power stations and factories. was the product of an unusual combination of sunny days. We are at the tipping point because the climate state includes large. Yet the rate the ice is vanishing confounds these climatologists' models. ready positive feedbacks provided by the Arctic sea ice.economist. Human civilization developed during the Holocene (the past 12.com/node/21530079.edu/~jeh1/2008/StateOfWild_20080428.columbia.. A major casualty in all this will be wildlife. China. 4. ice covered 4.¶ "The longer you wait to do something. ‘8 (James E. Obama has the courage to tell the EPA to stop. yet it will have no measurable benefit. yet the summer sea-ice minimum is a mere 4% bigger than that record. the semiarid states from central Texas through Oklahoma and both Dakotas would become more drought-prone and ill suited for agriculture. http://www.S. has been holding up the permitting of new power and manufacturing plants.3 The warming that has already occurred. “Beating a retreat”.33m square km.pdf) The upshot of the combination of inertia and feedbacks is that additional climate change is already “in the pipeline”: even if we stop increasing greenhouse gases today. That Arctic sea ice is disappearing has been known for decades.

Susan Solomon. that do not hang around in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide does. Filling the gap between model and reality may need something besides this. Russia and Scandinavia. That certainly would raise sea levels (though not as quickly as News Corporation's cartographers suggest in the latest edition of the best-selling “Times Atlas”. which fish there. said the report. http://www.05%). Polar bears. 200 years. and walruses.businessgreen. "People have imagined that if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide. The darkness of land and water compared with the reflectiveness of snow and ice means that when the latter melt to reveal the former. will also suffer. reducing black carbon and ozone in the lower part of the atmosphere. According to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme. Wildlife hit.Gonzaga Debate Institute 108 Warming Core the level of carbon dioxide. “US report says rising sea levels inevitable”. The study. the true figure is more like 0. Nonetheless. when snow or rain wash them onto an ice floe. BusinessGreen. this looks likely to happen some time between 2020 and 2050. First. But that is (literally and figuratively) a marginal effect. Not everyone agrees it would work. that is not true. Without corresponding measures to cut CO2 emissions. Rising sea levels would cause "irreversible commitments to future changes in the geography of the Earth. but it might delay the process by a decade or two. A darker—and so more heat-absorbent—Arctic. It's an ill wind… The direct consequences of changes in the Arctic are mixed. soot particles absorb sunlight. Some of the causes of this are understood. this would be but a temporary fix. There will be decreases in drinking water supplies. Such feedback. though. cleaning up diesel engines and wood stoves. paints a depressing picture of the future caused by increased CO2 emissions. They should not bring much rise in the sea level. northern and southern Africa. as jargon-loving researchers refer to it). their impact may be as big as CO2's. Indeed.000ppm. since floating ice obeys Archimedes's principle and displaces its own mass of water. and so on—were adopted everywhere they could halve the wider rate of warming by 2050. Gunnar Myhre of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo. Carbon dioxide." the report said. increased fire frequency and an end to dry-season farming of wheat and maize. Then. could cut warming in the Arctic by two-thirds over the next three decades. The latest candidates are “shortterm climate forcings”. the area exposed absorbs more heat from the sun and reflects less of it back into space. said in a teleconference. Canada. led by researchers at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and paid for by the Department of Energy. global water levels will rise by as much as one metre. as the result of that was unpredictable. a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response. illuminates the difficulty of modelling the climate— but not in a way that brings much comfort to those who hope that fears about the future climate might prove exaggerated. particularly ozone and soot. will both be hard- All their impacts are inevitable Sterlicchi ‘9 (John Sterlicchi. more fractured. Reducing soot (and also ozone. they darken its surface and thus cause it to melt faster. will surely accelerate global warming and may thus encourage melting of the land-bound Greenland ice sheet. but have to be renewed continually if they are to have a lasting effect. In the Arctic. by contrast. If it peaks at 1. Regions that will be affected are southern Europe. and so more liable to melt. Also. At the moment. These are pollutants. soot is a double whammy. when released into the air as a result of incomplete combustion (from sources as varied as badly serviced diesel engines and forest fires). according to a new US government-sponsored report. then. southwestern US. the result will be less dry-season rainfall that will be reminiscent of the 1930s Dust Bowl era in the US. methane and so on in the atmosphere continues to rise. If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million. which hunt for seals along the ice's edge. The reason is that Arctic air is warming twice as fast as the atmosphere as a whole. If they are so renewed. does not completely explain what is happening. he says. an industrial pollutant that acts as a greenhouse gas) would not stop the summer sea ice disappearing. At current rates of shrinkage. though." the head of the research team. January 29. The result is a feedback loop that accelerates local warming.000 years. Formerly a solid mass that melted and refroze at its edges. most eyes are on soot (or “black carbon”. the rise will double. Those grim predictions of rising sea levels also did not take into account the melting of ice at both poles. since many coastal and island features would ultimately become submerged. it is an attractive idea because it would have other benefits (soot is bad for people's lungs) and would not require the wholesale rejigging of energy production which reducing CO2 emissions implies. though. is the main culprit. This is because of the role . He does not believe it is the missing factor in the models. and so warm up the atmosphere. will have only a minimal effect on its reflectivity.com/bg/news/1805554/us-report-rising-sea-levels-inevitable. notes that the amount of black carbon in the Arctic is small and has been falling in recent decades. if CO2 peaks at 600ppm. then the Arctic Ocean will be free of floating summer ice by the end of the century. the report suggests. especially in the Arctic countries of America. in his view. but some are not. and western Australia. Hence the search for other things that might assist the ice's rapid disappearance. if such measures— preventing crop burning and forest fires. the climate would go back to normal in 100 years. it is now thinner. for example. which claims that 15% of the Greenland sheet has melted in the past 12 years. Forcing the issue One is physical change in the ice itself. When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should. though. The rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice. Black carbon deposited on the Arctic snow and ice. 2009) Some of the effects of global warming will be irreversible and others may last for at least 1.

Currently the oceans are absorbing the CO2 and keeping the planet cool but in the future they will become saturated.Gonzaga Debate Institute 109 Warming Core played by the world's oceans. .

Idso. Arizona-Nevada Academy of Sciences. operate. even developing countries‘ future ability to cope with climate change would be much better than that of the U. Thus. member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. as many researchers have found ―even the best biofuels have the potential to damage the poor. and maintain technologies necessary to cope with or take advantage of climate change impacts. reveals that net GDP per capita in developing countries in 2100 would be double the 2006 level of the U. American Geophysical Union. . competes with food crops and wildlife for land. prosperity. President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. S. 2011. the climate. and social stability. 2010). marine geologist and environmental scientist with more than thirty years professional experience. Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia). notwithstanding the historic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. global cooling has led to wars and social unrest in the past.7 percent. including the percent of developing world population suffering from chronic hunger. and assuming a compounded annual growth rate of per-capita GDP of only 0.S. poverty rates. reveal dramatic improvement during the twentieth century. a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. today.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 110 Tech Solves Tech and adaptive advances prevent all climate impacts---warming won’t cause war Singer et al 11. and Association of American Geographers. whereas global warming has coincided with periods of peace. Even accepting the IPCC‘s and Stern Review‘s worst-case scenarios. install. Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia. “Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report. which is determined by. the wealth and human resources society can access in order to obtain. Robert M.S. and biodiversity‖ (Delucchi. The notion that global warming might cause war and social unrest is not only wrong. Fred Research Fellow at The Independent Institute. The IPCC‘s embrace of biofuels as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was premature.” online: http://www. The IPCC systematically underestimates adaptive capacity by failing to take into account the greater wealth and technological advances that will be present at the time for which impacts are to be estimated. but even backwards – that is. Biofuel production consumes nearly as much energy as it generates. Carter. American Meteorological Society. among other things. and deaths due to extreme weather events. et al. stratigrapher.nipccreport. and Craig D.org/reports/2011/pdf/FrontMatter. founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Dr. and is unlikely to ever meet more than a small fraction of the world‘s demand for fuels. and triple that level in 2200. The magnitude of the impacts of climate change on human well-being depends on society‘s adaptability (adaptive capacity). and a Member of the International Academy of Astronautics.pdf Decades-long empirical trends of climate-sensitive measures of human well-being. palaeontologist.

org/2012/. or globally.S.destroys all solvency Wortzel. as much or more than warming from U. But in the Teng et al. So. and just how easily the whims of foreign nations. What the powers-that-be behind emissions reduction schemes in the U. not to mention Mother Nature. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. a 0. Colorado.) and there is no clear winner. “Asian Air Pollution Warms U.S.S. The resulting enhancement of atmospheric solar absorption (only the direct effect of aerosols is included) over Asia induces tropospheric heating anomalies that force large-scale circulation changes which. pointing out that a reduction in domestic greenhouse gases is for naught.S. Which points out the anemic effect that U. soot) does not increase across Asia (a slim chance of that).. Usually.S. the winter warming over the eastern half of the country is large (several tenths of a °C) even at twice the current rate of Asian emissions. greenhouse gas emissions reductions may avoid averaged across the country. new greenhouse gas emissions from China will completely subsume an 80% reduction in U. And even if the traditional form of air pollution (e. greenhouse gas emission in just over a decade. Both outcomes seem dubious at time scales that make a difference.05°C.S. or soot). in Boulder.S. according to their climate model. are hoping for is that 1) it doesn’t hurt us too much. when it comes to influences on the climate.” Skipping the details of this climate modeling study and cutting to the chase. what’s the point of forcing Americans into different energy choices?” A new study provides evidence that air pollution emanating from Asia will warm the U.S. While most of the summer warming doesn’t start to kick in until Asian carbonaceous aerosol emissions are upped in the model to 10 times what they are today. New Study A new study just published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters is authored by a team led by Haiyan Teng from the National Center for Atmospheric Research.S. when considering the climate impact from carbon aerosol emissions (primarily in the form of black carbon.S.S. Now let’s revisit just how much “global warming” that stringent U. the effect is thought to be largely contained to the local or regional scale because the atmospheric lifetime of these particulates is only on the order of a week (before they are rained out).4°C *surface air temperature+ warming on average over the eastern US during winter and over almost the entire US during summer” averaged over the 2005–2024 period.masterresource. greenhouse gas reductions will have on the climate of the U. ‘08 (Larry. averaged over the twenty-year period. Nov. http://www. study.075°C of temperature “savings” averaged across the U. not to mention Mother Nature.S. Comparing the amount of warming in the U. by the year 2050.S. greenhouse gas emissions reductions…. saved by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by some 80% to the amount of warming added in the U. add as much as an additional 0. it has largely been naturally scrubbed clean.-China Economic and Security Review Commission”. and carried out three sets of sensitivity experiments in which the prescribed carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over a selected Asian domain are increased by a factor of two. For example. six. “Report to Congress of the U. at least when it comes to mitigating climate change. the local heating of the atmosphere by the Asian carbon aerosols (which are quite good at absorbing sunlight) can impart changes to the character of the larger-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The paper is titled “Potential Impacts of Asian Carbon Aerosols on Future US Warming. Environmental Protection Agency (and otherwise) to mitigate anthropogenic climate change is moot. nothing we do here (when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions) will make any difference either domestically. by increases in Asian black carbon (soot) aerosol emissions (at least according to Teng et al. and ten respectively during the period of 2005–2024.4°C warming over the eastern US during winter and over most of the US during summer. and thus induce a change in the climate here characterized by “0.S. If the future temperature rise in the U. Once again. Such remote impacts are confirmed by an atmosphere stand-alone experiment with specified heating anomalies over Asia that represent the direct effect of the carbon aerosols. at the current growth rate. and 2) that China and other large developing nations will follow our lead.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 111 XT – Can’t Solve Asia pollution offsets any US action – global warming is inevitable Knappenberger. really.g. Former Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation. Since the U. In my Master Resource post “Climate Impacts of Waxman-Markey (the IPCC-based arithmetic of no gain)” I calculated that a more than 80% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the U. And these changes to the broader atmospheric flow produce an effect on the weather patterns in the U. p.S. ‘12 (Chip. China is a greater cause of warming. So. can completely offset any climate changes induced by our greenhouse gas emissions reductions. We took a 21st century mitigation scenario as a reference.05°C of global temperature reduction probably amounts to about 0.. By the time it gets here. 06/asian-air-pollution-warming/) “The whims of foreign nations. what’s the point.S. assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute. is projected to warm slightly more than the global average (land warms faster than the oceans). can completely offset any climate changes induced by U.S. The implication? Efforts by the U. google. here is the abstract of the paper: This study uses an atmosphere-ocean fully coupled climate model to investigate possible remote impacts of Asian carbonaceous aerosols on US climate change.S More than Our GHG Emissions” 7/12/06. by the year 2050 would result in a reduction of global temperatures (from where they otherwise would be) of about 0. the authors find that. is subject to the whims of Asian environmental and energy policy. js) .S. Since Asia lies on the far side of the Pacific Ocean—a distance which requires about a week for air masses to navigate—we usually aren’t overly concerned about the quality of Asian air or the quantity of junk that they emit into it. then what sense does it make for Americans to have their energy choices regulated by efforts aimed at mitigating future temperature increases across the country—efforts which will have less of an impact on temperatures than the policies enacted across Asia? Maybe the EPA should reconsider the perceived effectiveness of its greenhouse gas emission regulations—at least when it comes to impacting temperatures across the U. of forcing Americans into different energy choices? As I have repeatedly pointed out. greenhouse gases emitted there certainly will.

New leadership might help. transfers and policies that would constitute. It seems as if a scare story could grab a headline. February 1.Gore_Pachauri With this in mind. both China's aggregate emissions and its share of global emissions will continue to increase dramatically for the foreseeable future. After the failure of the summit to agree to even that much. with the Democrats expected to lose seats in both houses. A cover-up like that suggests that you indeed have something to conceal. But even if somehow.’ as the global warming movement’s embattled defenders gamely tried to argue. js) The global warming movement as we have known it is dead. in 112 China argues that developed countries are the primary cause of climate change and therefore places primary responsibility for reducing emissions on those countries rather than on China and other developing countries. Even if that first step had been reached. The movement died from two causes: bad science and bad politics. The consequent reality is that it will be impossible for the international community to resolve the climate change problem by sufficiently reducing emissions unless China contributes to the effort. This latest story in the London Times is yet another shocker. the IPCC simply didn’t care about whether it was reality-based. in the absence of major energy consumption changes in China. The global warming movement proposed a complex set of international agreements involving vast transfers of funds. even “success” in Copenhagen would not have brought the global warming movement the kind of victory it sought — although it would have created a very sticky and painful political problem for the United States. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.191 However. By the time that summit opened. Without a commitment from the United States to pay its share of the $100 billion plus per year that poor countries wanted as their price for compliance. troubling and establishes in my mind the need for intensive additional research and investigation. it turned out that the most prestigious agencies in the global warming movement were breaking laws. no scientific basis at all. a concept identified as "common but differentiated responsibilities. miraculously. but everything these two agencies have done will now have to be re-checked by independent and objective sources. They were never able to develop a pragmatic approach that could reach its goals in the context of the existing international system. '10 (Walter Russell. the intricate global deals fall apart. is serious.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core historical greenhouse gas emitter and far exceeds China in emissions per capita. The Death of Global Warming. the movement went into a rapid decline. No modeling or momentum Mead. and without US participation in other aspects of the proposed global approach. in some cases. Any efforts to address this problem will require global participation by developed and developing nations." 190 The United States is the largest the past two years China has overtaken the United States in total production of greenhouse gas emissions. From Gallup Since the United States was never very likely to accept these agreements and ratify these treaties. the chance of passage would be even more remote — especially as polls show that global warming ranks at or near the bottom of most voters’ priorities. The urge to make the data better than it was didn’t just come out of nowhere. campaigners were reduced to hoping for a ‘politically binding’ agreement to be agreed that would set the stage for the rapid adoption of the legally binding treaty. and making inflated. The global warmists were trapped into the necessity of hyping the threat by their realization that the actual evidence they had — which.com/wrm/2010/02/01/the-death-ofglobal-warming/. Its health had been in steady decline during the last year as the once robust hopes for a strong and legally binding treaty to be agreed upon at the Copenhagen Summit faded away. much less ratify a treaty. a program for achieving its key goals. support for specific measures and sacrifices will erode rapidly as commentators from Fox News and other conservative outlets endlessly hammer away. let me emphasize. at least on paper.S. had violated Britain’s Freedom of Information Act when scientists refused to hand over data so that critics could check their calculations and methods. As it happened. but enough of their product is sufficiently tainted that these institutions can best serve the cause of fighting climate change by stepping out of the picture . the movement never got to the first step — it never got the world’s countries to agree to the necessary set of treaties. ‘climategate’ — the scandal over hacked emails by prominent climate scientists — looks sinister rather than just unsavory. intrusive regulations in national economies. as well as some prudential steps that would reduce CO2 emissions by enhancing fuel use efficiency and promoting alternative energy sources — was not sufficient to get the world’s governments to do what they thought needed to be done. and is even less prepared to do so in a recession with the Democrats in retreat. Now it has failed. The British government has concluded that University of East Anglia. home of the research institute that provides the global warming with much of its key data. bogus claims resting on . Not everything that has come out of the IPCC and the East Anglia Climate Unit is false. but not very much. hiding data.the-american-interest. Breaking the law to hide key pieces of data isn’t just ‘science as usual. and substantial changes to the domestic political economies of most countries on the planet. the United States and all the other . 2010. senior fellow for U. the second and third would almost surely not have been. American public opinion supports ‘doing something’ about global warming. The solution also is unachievable unless the United States—as currently the world's second largest emitter and the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases— makes a substantial contribution. the IPCC’s claims that the rainforests were going to disappear as a result of global warming are as bogus and fraudulent as its claims that the Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035. After years in which global warming activists had lectured everyone about the overwhelming nature of the scientific evidence. The United States Congress is unlikely to pass the kind of legislation these agreements would require before the midterm elections. The global warming campaigners got into this mess because they had a deeply flawed political strategy. http://blogs. All projections indicate that. all hype aside. Hyping the threat increasingly doesn’t look like an accident: it looks like it was a conscious political strategy.) After the midterms. (It takes 67 senate votes to ratify a treaty and only 60 to overcome a filibuster.

you can cajole and you can threaten. That conventional view could change in a world where the full cost of burning coal is high and gas is cheap. . Countries would cheat. that’s not a reasonable bridge at all. is to start by focusing on places where climate goals overlap with other national priorities—like clearing the air or making energy supplies more reliable. Governments in countries like China and India aren’t going to stop pushing for all the economic growth they can get by any means that will work — and even if central governments decided to move on global warming. and others challenge the idea that natural gas can serve as a bridge along the road to a post-fossil energy future. either because they chose to do so or because their domestic systems are so weak. even CO2. so corrupt or so both that they simply wouldn’t be able to comply. or anyone else writes. it will mark the first time that the UN has a comprehensive written collection of promised actions. But my hope is that progress in avoiding environmental regrets can come through constructive discussion of ways to cut risks and waste and to sustain a long-term energy quest that extends beyond fossil fuels even while they remain abundant and cheap. The gas revolution is a good poster child for the importance of technological innovation. But you are asking for something that you just can’t get — and at the end of the day. Earlier this year the Energy Information Administration published a rather brave study: a retrospective on how well its forecasters have done predicting things like demand for energy.) We probably can’t lick global warming with self-interested actions alone. Since so much. all these surprises are a reminder of how much we don’t know about how technology and markets will unfold. I’ve always thought that the way to make progress on climate change. Shift from Coal to Gas?”. state and local authorities have agendas of their own.Gonzaga Debate Institute 113 Warming Core countries involved not only accepted the agreements but ratified them and wrote domestic legislation to incorporate them into law. But most of the world isn’t so keen. The examples of blatant cheating would inevitably affect compliance in other countries. especially in “reluctant” countries like China and even the U. The grieving friends and relatives aren’t ready to pull the plug. That’s no easy task. Most of the key advances that make today’s gas revolution possible—not just fracking but across the production and transmission of gas as well as in the ultra-efficient turbines that are today’s best way to make electricity from gas—trace their origins back to publicly funded R&D in tandem with lots of private sector investment. And certainly if China’s gas push comes with the same wasteful.” Tech strategies insufficient Revkin ’12 (Andrew C. whistling-past-the-graveyard comment. temperatures will rise above the target level of two degrees Celsius — but let’s not despair! The BBC quotes one of its own reporters: “BBC environment reporter Matt McGrath says the accord lacks teeth and does not include any clear targets on cutting emissions. V. you won’t get it. To date. I like the carbon tax like the one Australia introduced this week to create an incentive not just to invent new low-carbon technologies but also to deploy them. Ramanathan and C. But a technology push with no pull from the markets a recipe for waste. Another lesson from that study is that the record of forecasting energy prices—gas in particular but also oil—is pretty abysmal.S. Nothing I. the cost of oil and such. One lesson from that study is that a lot of forecasting is done by looking in the rear view mirror—forecasts typically start with current conditions. most CCS investment has focused on coal on the assumption that coal is cheap and that the technologies needed for CCS on gas are too expensive. will change the reality that the gas age is here for many years to come. I see the gas revolution as just one of a large class of strategies for getting serious about climate change in ways that are politically expedient. focused on the tremendous potential for slowing climate change through action on soot. There’s no question that we need a big push on technology and that all nations. there is growing interest in so-called “technology strategies” to address climate change. It’s like asking a jellyfish to climb a flight of stairs. Some of the technologies for CCS are generic—they work whether the original fuel is coal or gas—but others (including the costliest parts of CCS systems) must be tailored to the fuel. the BBC first acknowledges that even if the current promises are kept.. [Here's a link to an article by Jesse Ausubel on one such technology. to spend handsomely on this global goal. you can poke and prod all you want. leaky practices that American oil and gas companies have only slowly abandoned (and that still abound in Russia and elsewhere). “Can China Follow U. That’s too simplistic. Some innovating nations people have unwisely taken that logic to the extreme and suggested that if the US and other just pushed hard on technology that there wouldn’t be much need for emission limits. Sixth. but at least we can point countries in the right direction and build political support for the deeper and more expensive cuts that will be essential. collectively. and as facts on the ground change radically so do the forecasts.+ Fifth. see the last issue of foreign affairs for an article co-authored with two colleagues here in La Jolla. But if most countries at least signal what they intend to do to cut their emissions. In a few countries and jurisdictions—such as Europe. One implication for technology R&D policy is that in a world of cheap gas there’s probably a lot of value in looking carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies for use on gas-fired power plants. As Victor notes. (For another example. he says. Kennel. I’ve always thought that CCS was an inelegant way to lick the carbon problem—because it involves burning fuels and then corralling a huge mass of pollution rather than avoiding the pollution in the first place—but if gas is to be a real “bridge” to a low emission future rather than a nice-looking dead end then we must seriously explore ways to further cut emissions from gas plants.S. California.. yet. it is extremely unlikely that all this activity would achieve the desired result. Environment and energy blogger – NYT. and Vermont—people will invest lots of their own money to control emissions in an effort to slow global warming. For better or worse. massively under-invest in energy R&D. cap and trade or carbon taxes. the global political system isn’t capable of producing the kind of result the global warming activists want. July 4. in a typical. it would also very likely erode what would in any case be an extremely fragile consensus in rich countries to keep forking over hundreds of billions of dollars to poor countries — many of whom would not be in anything like full compliance with their commitments. depends on relative energy prices we should be sober about what we can realistically predict for the future. 2012) Fourth. simply moving from coal to gas is hardly a climate solution on its own.

“Beating a retreat”. Head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at Columbia University.. and current wildlife. Now. In the US. This year has seen no such opposite of a perfect storm. which is much harder to measure. the area exposed absorbs more heat from the sun and reflects less of . was the product of an unusual combination of sunny days. China. Add in the fact that the thickness of the ice. but cool enough for ice sheets to remain on Greenland and Antarctica. The reason is that Arctic air is warming twice as fast as the atmosphere as a whole. people. or 1. Human civilization developed during the Holocene (the past 12. according to America's National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). new research is indicating that sunspot activity is much more important than CO2 when it comes to influencing the earth’s temperature. Casualties would include more than the loss of indigenous ways of life in warming in the pipeline together have the Arctic and swamping of coastal cities.17m square km in 2007.33m square km. then the Arctic Ocean will be free of floating summer ice by the end of the century. ‘8 (James E.67m square miles. The underlying cause is believed by all but a handful of climatologists to be global warming brought about by greenhouse-gas emissions. and the additional brought us to the precipice of a planetary tipping point. That is not a record low—not quite. of the Arctic Ocean. It has been warm enough to keep ice sheets off North America and Europe.edu/~jeh1/2008/StateOfWild_20080428.there’s too much CO2 in the air even if we stop Hansen. Too late Rahn 11 (Richard W. Yet the rate the ice is vanishing confounds these climatologists' models. more warming will occur . and there is probably less ice floating on the Arctic Ocean now than at any time since a particularly warm period 8. If this continues. With rapid warming of 0. the positive feedbacks that have been set in motion. yet the summer sea-ice minimum is a mere 4% bigger than that record. Large populations in Asia and South America would lose their primary dry season freshwater source as glaciers disappear. September 24. Obama has the courage to tell the EPA to stop. http://www. The darkness of land and water compared with the reflectiveness of snow and ice means that when the latter melt to reveal the former. is estimated to have fallen by half since 1979.6°C in the past 30 years.” Lexis) The Obama Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has ruled that carbon dioxide is a pollutant and. when satellite records began. it would be decades before there would be even a minor effect on global temperatures. and much of Greenland’s ice. That Arctic sea ice is disappearing has been known for decades.000 years). The Washington Times. but some are not. Some of the causes of this are understood. 4. as a result.000 years ago. Al Gore’s science advisor. Ice melting irreversibly now FP 11 (Foreign Policy. Introductory chapter for the book State of the Wild.” April. senior fellow at the Cato Institute. soon after the last ice age. We are at the tipping point because the climate state includes large. “Obama's regulatory reform test. overwhelming whatever actions the U nited States may take.pdf) The upshot of the combination of inertia and feedbacks is that additional climate change is already “in the pipeline”: even if we stop increasing greenhouse gases today.economist.com/node/21530079. global temperature is at its warmest level in the Holocene.S. by contrast. Even if all new CO2 emissions were stopped globally. this looks likely to happen some time between 2020 and 2050. yet it will have no measurable benefit. particularly southern Africa.columbia. This is sobering when one considers the present status of Earth’s climate. Little additional forcing is needed to trigger these feedbacks and magnify global warming . ice covered 4. has been holding up the permitting of new power and manufacturing plants. and there will be no return within any foreseeable future generation. A major casualty in all this will be wildlife. the semiarid states from central Texas through Oklahoma and both Dakotas would become more drought-prone and ill suited for agriculture. An intensified hydrologic cycle will produce both greater floods and greater droughts. The EPA ban is nothing more than national economic suicide. the West Antarctic ice sheet. cloudless skies and warm currents flowing up from mid-latitudes. economic growth and job creation. http://www. ready positive feedbacks provided by the Arctic sea ice.3 The warming that has already occurred. it will cause a significant drop in U. At current rates of shrinkage. If we go over the edge. India and many other countries are rapidly increasing CO2 emissions. we will transition to an environment far outside the range that has been experienced by humanity. Rahn. Hanson. at the height of its summertime shrinkage. “Tipping point: Perspective of a Scientist. methane and so on in the atmosphere continues to rise. 1/25/2011. But the actual record. Africa would see a great expansion of dry areas. Let us see if Mr.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 114 XT – Irreversible More evidence. These predict that if the level of carbon dioxide. 2011) ON SEPTEMBER 9th.

Carbon dioxide. will surely accelerate global warming and may thus encourage melting of the land-bound Greenland ice sheet. First. the true figure is more like 0. southwestern US. Canada. Russia and Scandinavia. most eyes are on soot (or “black carbon”. http://www. said the report. since many coastal and island features would ultimately become submerged. an industrial pollutant that acts as a greenhouse gas) would not stop the summer sea ice disappearing. as the result of that was unpredictable. then. and so on—were adopted everywhere they could halve the wider rate of warming by 2050.000ppm. northern and southern Africa. “US report says rising sea levels inevitable”. Polar bears. The study. Also. though. which claims that 15% of the Greenland sheet has melted in the past 12 years. Wildlife hit. 2009) Some of the effects of global warming will be irreversible and others may last for at least 1. and western Australia. though. If it peaks at 1. illuminates the difficulty of modelling the climate— but not in a way that brings much comfort to those who hope that fears about the future climate might prove exaggerated. That certainly would raise sea levels (though not as quickly as News Corporation's cartographers suggest in the latest edition of the best-selling “Times Atlas”. when released into the air as a result of incomplete combustion (from sources as varied as badly serviced diesel engines and forest fires). said in a teleconference. though. Forcing the issue One is physical change in the ice itself." the report said. if CO2 peaks at 600ppm. he says. Formerly a solid mass that melted and refroze at its edges. Rising sea levels would cause "irreversible commitments to future changes in the geography of the Earth. will have only a minimal effect on its reflectivity. which fish there. especially in the Arctic countries of America. It's an ill wind… The direct consequences of changes in the Arctic are mixed. reducing black carbon and ozone in the lower part of the atmosphere. particularly ozone and soot. Regions that will be affected are southern Europe. soot is a double whammy. and so warm up the atmosphere. increased fire frequency and an end to dry-season farming of wheat and maize.com/bg/news/1805554/us-report-rising-sea-levels-inevitable. for example. cleaning up diesel engines and wood stoves. led by researchers at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and paid for by the Department of Energy. the result will be less dry-season rainfall that will be reminiscent of the 1930s Dust Bowl era in the US. the climate would go back to normal in 100 years. A darker—and so more heat-absorbent—Arctic. They should not bring much rise in the sea level. In the Arctic. Then.businessgreen. does not completely explain what is happening. that is not true. it is an attractive idea because it would have other benefits (soot is bad for people's lungs) and would not require the wholesale rejigging of energy production which reducing CO2 emissions implies. Gunnar Myhre of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo. since floating ice obeys Archimedes's principle and displaces its own mass of water. Nonetheless. according to a new US governmentsponsored report. . This is because of the role played by the world's oceans. and walruses. The rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice. If they are so renewed. He does not believe it is the missing factor in the models. more fractured. BusinessGreen. Black carbon deposited on the Arctic snow and ice. though. According to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme. when snow or rain wash them onto an ice floe. The result is a feedback loop that accelerates local warming . Those grim predictions of rising sea levels also did not take into account the melting of ice at both poles. Without corresponding measures to cut CO2 emissions. 200 years. Filling the gap between model and reality may need something besides this. "People have imagined that if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide. Currently the oceans are absorbing the CO2 and keeping the planet cool but in the future they will become saturated. Reducing soot (and also ozone." the head of the research team. paints a depressing picture of the future caused by increased CO2 emissions. it is now thinner. But that is (literally and figuratively) a marginal effect.000 years. Such feedback. notes that the amount of black carbon in the Arctic is small and has been falling in recent decades. a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response. but have to be renewed continually if they are to have a lasting effect. Not everyone agrees it would work. These are pollutants. January 29. could cut warming in the Arctic by two-thirds over the next three decades.Gonzaga Debate Institute 115 Warming Core it back into space. soot particles absorb sunlight. if such measures— preventing crop burning and forest fires. global water levels will rise by as much as one metre. and so more liable to melt. they darken its surface and thus cause it to melt faster. The latest candidates are “shortterm climate forcings”. Indeed. will both be hard- All their impacts are inevitable Sterlicchi ‘9 (John Sterlicchi. There will be decreases in drinking water supplies. which hunt for seals along the ice's edge. that do not hang around in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide does. but it might delay the process by a decade or two. as jargon-loving researchers refer to it). the report suggests. At the moment.05%). the rise will double. If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million. When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should. Hence the search for other things that might assist the ice's rapid disappearance. in his view. will also suffer. their impact may be as big as CO2's. is the main culprit. Susan Solomon. this would be but a temporary fix.

a Polish Academy of Sciences paper was prepared as a source material for a report titled "Forecast of the Defense Conditions for the implied that the increase of atmospheric precipitation by 23% in Poland.htm. melt a lot of ice.”http://www. the frequency and magnitude of floods of Vistula River in Cracow not only did not increase but. this increase amounted to 10 cm to 20 cm. pg. Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. On January 18. or even prolonging by four months the harvest of radishes.. Truly." The paper significantly decreased. neither the Maldive atolls nor the Pacific archipelagos were flooded. a possibility of doubling the crop rotation. and after 1930. js) Doomsayers preaching the horrors of warming are not troubled by the fact that in the Middle Ages. In the last 100 years. and that this has resulted in the thickening of the continental glacier at a rate of 26. (Imagine stating this in a country where 38% of the area suffers from permanent surface water deficit!) The same paper also deemed an extension of the vegetation period by 60 to 120 days as a disaster. ‘08 (Professor Zbigniew. and the Antarctic have ceased to retreat. "The rhetoric of fear and alarm that some people tend toward is counterproductive. Humans have the technological tools to begin tackling climate change. incremental action. "But it's going to change the entire wild ecology of the planet. Global oceanic levels have been rising for some hundreds or thousands of years (the causes of this phenomenon are not clear). and predicted that more drastic geoengineering might become necessary to stabilize the planet. so we're essentially doing an experiment whose result remains uncertain. (24) but it does not seem to be accelerated by the 20th Century warming. Newspapers continuously write about the increasing frequency and power of the storms. and it's not going to kill humanity. catastrophic scenarios. a climate policy analyst at the University of Colorado at Boulder. and sometimes even stopped. acidify the ocean. according to Wallace Broecker. It turns out that in warmer climates. would be detrimental." Searching for solutions One technological solution to climate change already exists through carbon capture and storage. and have started to grow. makes for a horrific vision in the minds of the authors of this paper. "My view of politics is that the long-term. a geochemist and renowned climate scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York City. since 1940. 2002. but there are plenty of data from all over the world. have Republic of Poland in 2001-2020. He added that doom-mongering did little to encourage people to take action. the number of storms with hail and precipitation exceeding 20 millimeters has decreased continuously. But Broecker remained skeptical that governments or industry would commit the resources needed to slow the rise of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. who don't view climate change as the end for humans. Pielke said. (27) Also." said Roger Pielke Jr. (17) Since the 1970s.8 billion tons a year. the journal Science published the results of satellite-borne radar and ice core studies performed by scientists from CalTech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Santa Cruz. "The rise in CO2 isn't going to kill people. Greenland. the number of all storms decreased. speak otherwise.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 116 XT – No Impact Consensus of experts agree that there is no impact to warming Hsu 10 (Jeremy. when for a few hundred years it was warmer than it is now. “Fear Propaganda.com/culture/can-humans-survive-extinction-doomsday100719. http://www. however. "The scenarios that the mainstream climate community are advancing are not end-of-humanity. These results indicate that the Antarctic ice flow has been slowed. high-risk scenarios are really difficult to use to motivate short-term. July 19.html) His views deviate sharply from those of most experts. measurements in the Kolobrzeg Baltic Sea harbor indicate that the number of gales has not increased between 1901 a .livescience. The facts. change the availability of water and change crop yields. in 1896-1995. Live Science Staff.com/aginatur/cycles/chap3. In Cracow. (25) In 1999." No impact to warming – history and scientific study prove Jaworowski. the glaciers of the Arctic. there is more water that evaporates from the ocean (and subsequently falls as snow on the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps) than there is water that flows to the seas from melting glaciers ." Pielke explained." Broecker said.ourcivilisation. I cite here only some few data from Poland. which was presumed to be caused by global warming. if not quite enough yet to solve the problem. Even the worst-case scenarios discussed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change don't foresee human extinction. (26) In 1813 to 1994.

For the drift-corrected sea-level rise (i. 2008). As with surface drift. estimated from the raw 20C3M temperature and salinity. is very similar across ensemble members. 4621-4640. salinity and pressure (in particular warmer water expands more than colder water for the same increase in heat content). A few models (e. p.e.0 model the steric sea-level anomaly over much of the tropics and mid.g.52 ±0. drift in temperature and salinity dominates 20C3M trends throughout most of the subsurface ocean.36mm/yr) and all models now indicate a rise in sea-level.level over the period. The CMIP3 models show a broad range of estimates for steric sea-level rise over 1950-2000 (Fig. while ocean drift extends through the entire water column. Climate Change Research Centre @ University of New South Wales. The spread in the raw 20C3M estimates is considerable (standard deviation ~0. Nevertheless the drift. “Climate Drift in the CMIP3 Models. including multiple ensemble members where available. 25. 1). Domingues et al. Figure 10a shows raw 20C3M trends and drift corrected estimates of forced trend for steric sea-level rise. by using drift corrected temperature and salinity) values become considerably more consistent (standard deviation ~0.. for 0-700m. . which is derived from different time periods from a single PICNTRL simulation. subsurface drift in temperature and salinity is spatially heterogeneous and so can result in a larger bias on regional scales. ensemble members for a given model are generally initialised from the same PICNTRL experiment but from different points in time. Figure 10b shows a scatter of the raw 20C3M trend magnitudes versus drift magnitudes. MRI) have a well equilibrated pre-industrial control throughout the ocean and so are essentially untroubled by drift. In the calculation of steric sea-level rise. Issue 13. changes sign once the drift is taken into account. 2012) As discussed above.76mm/yr with a multi-model mean of 0. the changes in temperature near the warm surface ocean have a proportionally larger influence on steric sea-level rise than temperature changes in the cold deeper ocean (at least away from the well mixed high latitude regions). a given temperature or salinity change will generally have less effect at depth than near the surface. in most regions. suggesting that the linear drift approximation is valid and that natural variability is not having a major effect on the drift estimates. usually separated by multiple years (Table. For instance in the CSIRO_mk3.2000 trends for three models (calculated from the surface to the bottom). The drift related error varies considerably across the models from less than 10% to over 200% for the ECHAM4 model (but see previous discussion of this model).45mm/yr). In addition a number of the models indicate a lowering of sea. However.latitudes. This is particularly important for assessing 20th century regional changes.59mm/yr) is consistent with the Domingues et al (2008) observational estimate (0.” Journal of Climate Vol. While considerable inter-model variability still exists the drift-corrected multi-model mean (~0. drift still introduces considerable bias into both regional and global sea-level rise. et al. In fact for many models and regions the sign of the sea-level trend is changed by the spurious drift. Nevertheless. where the steric component of sea-level rise is a major component of the total (e.g. As the amount of expansion for a given change in temperature or salinity is itself a function of temperature. given that the global warming signal over the 20th century is predominantly limited to the top few hundred meters.08 mm/yr. Figure 11 shows both the raw 20C3M and drift-corrected 1950. most models are significantly affected in certain regions. 10a). 1950-2003).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 117 AT: Sea Level Rise Sea level rise is junk science—models empirically fail Gupta ’12 (Alexander Sen.

but the world will have to wait and see. Russia was financially incapable of waging an arms race in the polar regions. as the Soviet Empire approached its collapse. the U. when the Arctic was studded with more nuclear weapons than virtually any other part of the world. and a year later. submarine fleet is second to none.time.wired.S. By contrast. 6-8-11. and Russia Ackerman.¶ “We actually think we handled these areas for decades during the Cold War rather well. (See pictures of the Arctic. the cutter Healy. Coast Guard has just one.¶ But no one’s sweating it. including some traditionally menaced by Russia. But could he possibly be serious? Many observers. the U.S. of course. including a large portion of the guests at the Sept. Companies and nations are champing at the bit to expand exploration as the ice caps melt.com/dangerroom/2011/06/war-for-the-arcticnever-mind/] It wasn’t long ago that the press was running wild with hyperbolic claims of the U. at a forum convened on Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Security. For now. http://www.” Strommen added.. The country expressed its intentions blatantly in August 2007.¶ Indeed. the four other Arctic powers began to let their northern militaries lapse. in which Russia signed onto an accord for search and rescue missions in the cold waters. “The Race for Arctic Oil: Is Russia Ready to Share?” www. fat slice of it. The Russians have an advantage: a fleet of six nuclear powered icebreakers on its northern shore. including the seas of oil and gas underneath.2010. at the height of the Cold War. the Russians are warm in the Arctic. Should there actually be an arctic sea conflict. ambassadors from four polar nations.S. 23 forum. After all. the military build-up tapered off and began to decline after Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev made his famous Murmansk speech in October 1987 in which he said the Arctic should become "a zone of peace and fruitful cooperation. the conditions are difficult and it’s incredibly expensive. and we are ready to defend our claim. 10 [Simon. the intensity of this militarization has largely depended on Russia's assertiveness over the years. [Spencer. Russia's leaders have never been coy about their designs on the Arctic. it became obvious to everyone that . it meant something very different from how Putin used it last week.2021644. Attitudes changed after 2001.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 118 AT: Arctic War Cooperation Between The U. In recent years. 9-27. Canada. were sanguine about the future of polar exploration.¶ The U. no one is rushing to dismantle the huge military capacities all of the Arctic countries — the U. With no more threat from the Russians. when a Russian lawmaker planted a flag on the seabed at the top of the world.00. Time Reporter. the diplomatic contact group of arctic nations. At the same time. War For The Arctic: Never Mind.com/time/world/article/0. Canada and Sweden gave high marks to a meeting last month of the Arctic Council. Russia Will Cooperate With The U.S. say the rhetoric is welcome. since the “climate is harsh. when soaring oil prices put jets beneath the Russian economy and Putin's government began allocating billions to its Arctic infrastructure. when President Dmitri Medvedev told his top generals at a meeting that defending Russia's interests in the Arctic was nothing less than "their direct duty to posterity. Canada and other Arctic states responded with a greater focus on military spending in the north. their message has been clear: We want a a big." Which is why so many of the world's Arctic decisionmakers were amazed last week when they were called to a forum in Moscow to hear a very different message. in the late 1980s.S. And a massive Arctic oil rush is “years off. Russia wants the Arctic to be "a zone of peace and cooperation.S Geological Survey assesses that the North Pole holds about 13 percent of the world’s untapped oil supplies.”¶ Beyond that. gas and minerals right in the backyard of the Russians. Norway’s man in Washington." Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told them.html#ixzz1x4fGS8Fk]. In The Arctic Shuster. Then. Ebbing and swelling over the past half-century." When Gorbachev used that phrase. as my colleague David Axe has pointed out. But the press forgot to tell other polar nations to freak out. global warming is freeing up access to large deposits of oil. By the end of the 1980s.S. Strommen’s colleagues from Greenland. losing out in an impending Arctic conflict.” said Wegger Strommen. Russia finalized a maritime border with Norway on Tuesday that took 30 years to negotiate. DC Defense Agent.8599. Think of it as a diplomatic thaw. Denmark. 2011. Norway (all members of NATO) and Russia — have been building north of the Arctic Circle.) It began.

That will be up to the countries themselves.N. . the U. when Russia and Norway settled an Arctic border dispute that had been festering for four decades.N.Gonzaga Debate Institute 119 Warming Core the polar ice caps were melting fast and the potential for drilling for and shipping oil and gas in the Arctic would soon be considerable." and was seen as part of Russia's push to shed its image as the Arctic aggressor. "In the absence of stability. which are using seabed samples to try to prove that the oil-rich regions are extensions of their continental shelves and therefore belong to them. will rule on whether the science behind these claims is accurate (it already rejected a Russian claim in 2001 based on poor evidence). The agreement came in the lead-up to last week's forum in Moscow. (Remember the french fries they shared at Ray's Hell Burger in June?) And as Russia realizes. A gentler approach to Arctic policy is in line with Medvedev's broader effort to win over the West. it is not the job of the U." The reasoning behind Russia's change of tune is both pragmatic and political. from the perspective of the West." says Paul Berkman. had been the difficult entity and is now inviting the international community to participate. But even though the U. none of the energy opportunities are possible. and that is where things might get sticky. The northern powers were suddenly facing the last great energy frontier. as symbolized by his budding friendship with President Obama. exploiting the energy wealth of the Arctic will be much harder if the region gets mired in conflict .) By the end of 2014. Denmark and Russia. professor of Arctic Ocean geopolitics at the University of Cambridge. will receive competing claims for parts of the Arctic from Canada. of oil and oil-equivalent natural gas — and the scramble to claim it began. with a quarter of the world's untapped reserves in the Arctic — more than 400 billion bbl. 15.N." says Berkman. "Russia. (See pictures of the rise and fall of Gorbachev. "The Arctic — Territory of Dialogue. "We're at a transition. A hopeful sign on this front came on Sept. to delineate borders.

org/articles/V14/N47/EDIT. 2006) and European trees (Svenning. and they say that this view has fuelled the prediction that CO2-induced global warming "will have unprecedented effects on earth's biodiversity. Instead. that "intraspecific variation in physiological. because of the widespread belief that earth's plants and animals are unable to migrate poleward in latitude or upward in altitude fast enough to avoid that deadly consequence. because. for example. 2000.500-year cycle have often been abrupt. 2004. "habitat destruction and fragmentation. which is an important prerequisite for adaptive responses. The major effect of global warming will be more biodiversity in our forests. 2003)." these several observations suggest to us that addressing habitat destruction and fragmentation. and animals extend their ranges. Moreover. less obvious." with the result that "few taxa became extinct during the Quaternary (Botkin et al. speculate that "species may have used strategies other than shifting their geographical distributions or changing their genetic make-up. continue. Nussey et al. as most trees. since the former more direct and obvious effects of mankind are more destructive. Schipper et al..Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 120 AT: Biodiversity Extinction Is Not Cause By Climate Change Idso." noting that "both intraspecific phenotypic variability and individual phenotypic plasticity may allow for rapid adaptation without actual microevolutionary changes. and Keith. Hof et al. conclude that "species are probably more resilient to climatic changes than anticipated in most model assessments of the effect of contemporary climate change on biodiversity. mainly large mammals (Koch and Barnosky." primarily by driving many species to extinction. rather than climate change. as Hof et al. This is already happening." So do these observations imply that all is well with the planet's many and varied life forms? Not necessarily. 28-10-06. “Thoughts on Species' Abilities to Survive Rapid Climate Change”. they report that Steffensen et al. for example. more imminent and more easily addressed than are the less direct. plants. they state that these rapid changes appeared to "primarily affect a few specific groups. less imminent." They note. birds. phenological. (2011) note that recent and projected climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its supposedly unprecedented velocity. CO2 Science." And since Hof et al. Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years.. should take center stage when it comes to striving to protect earth's biosphere.php] In an Opinion article published in Global Change Biology. http://co2science.] We know that species can adapt to abrupt global warming because the climate shifts in the 1. as well as the assumption that current climate change simply outpaces evolutionary adaptation. they present evidence demonstrating that "recent geophysical studies challenge the view that the speed of current and projected climate change is unprecedented. Research Professor at George Mason and Dennis.. (2008) showed that temperatures in Greenland warmed by up to 4°C/year near the end of the last glacial period. continent-wide extinctions of species. Director Of The Center For Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute.. less destructive. Stuart et al. 2006 [Fred." So how were the bulk of earth's species able to survive what many today believe to be unsurvivable? Hof et al. 2007). 2007). behavioral or morphological traits may have allowed species to cope with rapid climatic changes within their ranges (Davis and Shaw." In one such study. the world's species have already survived at least six hundred such warmings and coolings in the past million years.5 million years) did not cause a noticeable level of broad-scale. not climate change per se. And they state that this change and other rapid climate changes during the Quaternary (the last 2. First. Founder of and current chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. 2005. 2001. are usually identified as the most severe threat to biodiversity (Pimm and Raven. 2008). Skelly et al. Adaption Forces Warming To Increase Biodiversity Singer.. But are these assumptions correct? The four biological researchers address this important question in stages. Sherwood. Some biologists claim that a further warming ." based on "preexisting genetic variation within and among different populations. 2011 [Craig. 11-23-11. and less easily addressed effects of the burning of fossil fuels.

¶ .000 to 5. the Earth warmed much more than that during the Holocene Climate Optimum. which occurred 8. However.000 years ago. and no known species were driven extinct by the temperature increase.8 degrees Celsius will destroy thousands of species.Gonzaga Debate Institute 121 Warming Core of 0.

Throughout history. Warming definitively does not cause disease – their authors distort science and ignore bigger alt causes Reiter ‘98 (Paul. epidemics were recorded to 2180 m in Argentina and 2600 m in Bolivia. resistance to antimalarial drugs. plainly ignore the past. Such claims. and 2450 m in Ethopia. rampant urbanisation without adequate infrastructure. and it remained endemic until the 1950s. dean of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public Health.com/news/science/articles/2007/12/05/a_tussle_over_link_of_warming_disease/) Donald S. Hippocrates clearly distinguished between the symptoms of vivax and falciparum malaria. Recent epidemics of malaria in the highlands of Madagascar have been attributed to global warming. http://www. The distortion of science to make predictions of unlikely public-health disasters diverts attention from the true reasons for the recrudescence of vector-borne diseases. and the disease remained endemic in such un-tropical countries as Holland. repeated claims that the disease has ascended to new altitudes in Colombia consistently cite a publication by Nelson et al but ignore its content. Poland. Moreover. nearly all countries of that continent were affected. "There are no apocalyptic pronouncements. malaria was a common disease throughout much of the USA. and there is no evidence to support the suggestion that transmission was due to putative climate change. Until the 20th century. Claims that malaria and dengue have recently climbed to higher altitudes are equally uninformed. prof of entomology @ the Pasteur Inst. Widespread epidemics of dengue were also common. and continued until the 1940s. high mobility through air travel. and yellow fever to invade higher latitudes in the temperate regions and higher altitudes in the tropics.thelancet. the disease was present to 2500 m in India and 1830 m in China. the investigators clearly stated there were no cases at high altitude. cases actually occurred to 2773 m. devastating epidemics occurred as far north as Archangel on the Arctic Circle. In the Himalayas. and Finland until after World War II. p 1825) Justin McCurry reports on warnings that man-made climate change may unleash a public-health disaster. noted that the 2001 study found that weather fluctuation and seasonal variability may influence the spread of infectious disease. Lastly.. Highland malaria was widespread throughout the world until the era of DDT and cheap malaria prophylaxis. and West Nile virus. . In ancient Greece. The Lancet. In the latter country. Yellow fever played a major part in US history. Specifically he mentions “adamant” claims by Paul Epstein and Andrew Haines that global warming has already caused malaria. fellow of Royal Entomological Society. recent dengue transmission at 1250 m in Costa Rica followed the reappearance of the vector Aedes aegypti (Linn) after a successful period of control. although they occurred well below the maximum altitude for transmission (figure) and were clearly a sequel to a breakdown of control infrastructure. In Europe. Staff.boston. Yellow fever also killed tens of thousands in many European countries until the end of the 19th century.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 122 AT: Disease Warming doesn’t cause diseases – scientists admit Donnelly ‘7 (John. 12-5. influenza. Burke. and local records show no great change in temperature. specifically naming dengue fever. and none have been reported since that study. In the Andes." Burke said he is not convinced that climate change can be proven to cause the spread of many diseases. insecticide resistance. Transmission occurred to 2600 m in Kenya. similar epidemics had taken place in the same areas in 1878 and 1895. occurred in Greece in 1927—28. 351. for although the vector was present to 2200 m. and a devastating epidemic of dengue. These include the large-scale resettlement of people (often associated with major ecological change). transmitted by mosquitoes breeding at 35°C in thermal springs. Vol. Even in the present century. with an estimated 1 million cases and 1000 deaths. Similarly. Issue 9105.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)78979-0/fulltext) In your news item on the Kyoto Summit (Dec 20/27." Burke said. and the deterioration of vector-control operations and other public-health practices. The figure shows the maximum altitude of autochthonous cases in 11 countries in the early half of this century. dengue. "There's an awful lot we don't know. oft repeated. But he also noted that such conclusions should be interpreted with caution. http://www. malaria was probably present in neolithic times.

and the most severe drought in decades.¶ The lack of thunderstorms and rainfall in July and August made last summer the driest and hottest on record.S. to highlight the need to immediately address climate change. the jet stream. The report stated that a “sequence of unfortunate events” occurred suddenly. ~AD 900-1300. droughts. researchers demonstrates that major 20th century droughts "pale in comparison to droughts documented in paleoclimatic records over the past two millennia (Cook et al.¶ “This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years.¶ Environmentalists and the Obama administration have held up extreme weather events. 2011 [Sherwood.” read a report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s drought unit. 10-12-2011. Woodhouse et al. “Heat waves. Climate scientists Kevin Trenberth with the National Centre for Atmospheric Research said the study failed to take into account the lack of snowpack in the Rockies or how climate change could have kept the jet stream away.¶ “The Central Great Plains drought during May-August of 2012 resulted mostly from natural variations in weather. including the severe drought. duration. the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. (2010) developed a 1200-year history of drought that allowed them to compare recent droughts with those of prior centuries." which would seem to confirm the climate-alarmist contention that greater warmth leads to greater droughts. appeared to play significant roles in causing severe rainfall deficits over the major corn producing regions of central Great Plains. the five scientists . One such region is Southwest North America. of the event.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 123 AT: Drought Climate Change Didn’t Bring Upon Droughts Bastasch.”¶ Hoerling factored climate change into computer simulations of the the drought. creating drought conditions across two-thirds of the U. and floods — all are now more frequent and more intense. for which Woodhouse et al. the review and analysis presented by the five U. a NOAA research meteorologist and lead author of the report. “CO2 Science.¶ “Yes. However.php] The world's climate alarmists claim that rising temperatures will bring ever worse droughts to precipitation-deficient regions of the earth." was "a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. a study released Thursday suggests the record-high drought that ravaged agricultural production across the Great Plains region last year was not caused by manmade global warming. told the Associated Press. it’s true that no single event makes a trend. — which were even hotter and drier than the infamous “dust bowl” of the Great Depression era. http://dailycaller.” Martin Hoerling. and they also state that the AD 1146-1155 period was "anomalously warm. Hoerling previously used the same method to determine that climate change had been a factor in a 2011 drought in Texas. “Climate change was not a significant part. Warming Won’t Cause Massive and Severe Droughts Idso. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science — and act before it’s too late. and extent of subsequent droughts.¶ “Neither ocean states nor human-induced climate change.com/2013/04/12/government-report-historic-drought-not-caused-by-global-warming/] Despite claims made by environmentalists and the Obama administration. and in spite of the fact that the warmth of the last few decades is said by alarmists to have been unprecedented over the past millennium or more. 2009)." which suggests that recent temperatures have not been unprecedented.” Obama said in his State of the Union address..D and Founder of and Current Chairman of the Board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. factors that can provide long-lead predictability. and Craig. PH. wildfires. But the fact is. if any. making the drought unpredictable. Presenting a little more detail. The DC. Keith. Droughts of Southwestern North America: Past and Present. but found it was not a factor in this particular drought." with paleoclimatic evidence suggesting that drought in the mid-12th century (AD 1146-1155) "far exceeded the severity.”¶ According to the report.”¶ Other scientists have challenged the NOAA study." including the 21st century drought of 2000-2009. was stuck too far north in Canada and did not bring spring rains.org/articles/V14/N41/EDIT. Government report: Historic drought not caused by global warming. We can choose to believe that superstorm Sandy. 2013 [Michael.” http://co2science. 4-12-2013. that typically pushes moist air from the Gulf region northward.S. report that "the medieval period. and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence.

the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period would have had to have been greater than the Current Warm Period has been to date. These observations do little to advance the climate-alarmist cause. for in order for their claim that rising temperatures promote more severe and expansive droughts to be correct." which again contradicts the climate-alarmist claim that greater warmth translates into greater drought in precipitation-deficient regions of the earth. ¶ . but that situation is in conflict with their even more basic claim that recent temperatures have been unprecedented compared to those of the prior millennium or two.Gonzaga Debate Institute 124 Warming Core contend that temperature was "almost certainly higher during the 21st century drought.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 125 AT: Extinction Consensus of experts agree that there is no impact to warming Hsu 10 (Jeremy. "The rhetoric of fear and alarm that some people tend toward is counterproductive. Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. acidify the ocean. did little to encourage people to take action. and that this has resulted in the thickening of the continental glacier at a rate of 26. js) Doomsayers preaching the horrors of warming are not troubled by the fact that in the Middle Ages. the journal Science published the results of satellite-borne radar and ice core studies performed by scientists from CalTech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Santa Cruz. measurements in the Kolobrzeg Baltic Sea harbor indicate that the number of gales has not increased between 1901 a Extinction Isn’t Caused By Warming. makes for a horrific vision in the minds of the authors of this paper. Humans have the technological tools to begin tackling climate change. (27) Also. a possibility of doubling the crop rotation.8 billion tons a year. the number of storms with hail and precipitation exceeding 20 millimeters has decreased continuously.. Even the worst-case scenarios discussed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change don't foresee human extinction. when for a few hundred years it was warmer than it is now. a geochemist and renowned climate Pielke said. and the Antarctic have ceased to retreat. a climate policy analyst at the University of Colorado at Boulder." Searching for solutions One technological solution to climate change already exists through carbon capture and storage. July 19. pg. the glaciers of the Arctic. Live Science Staff. 2012 . and after 1930. "The scenarios that the mainstream climate community are advancing are not end-of-humanity." No impact to warming – history and scientific study prove Jaworowski. speak otherwise. (24) but it does not seem to be accelerated by the 20th Century warming. It turns out that in warmer climates. Truly. or even prolonging by four months the harvest of radishes. incremental action. "The rise in CO2 isn't going to kill people. http://www. however. (17) Since the 1970s. if not quite enough yet to solve the problem. since 1940. "But it's going to change the entire wild ecology of the planet. which was presumed to be caused by global warming." said Roger Pielke Jr." The paper implied that the increase of atmospheric precipitation by 23% in Poland. "My view of politics is that the long-term. He added that doom-mongering scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York City." Broecker said. and it's not going to kill humanity. These results indicate that the Antarctic ice flow has been slowed. The facts. Global oceanic levels have been rising for some hundreds or thousands of years (the causes of this phenomenon are not clear). a Polish Academy of Sciences paper was prepared as a source material for a report titled "Forecast of the Defense Conditions for the Republic of Poland in 2001-2020. Newspapers continuously write about the increasing frequency and power of the storms. but there are plenty of data from all over the world. (26) In 1813 to 1994. have significantly decreased. and predicted that more drastic geoengineering might become necessary to stabilize the planet. the frequency and magnitude of floods of Vistula River in Cracow not only did not increase but.com/culture/can-humans-survive-extinction-doomsday100719. who don't view climate change as the end for humans.html) His views deviate sharply from those of most experts. this increase amounted to 10 cm to 20 cm. Greenland.htm.livescience. On January 18. neither the Maldive atolls nor the Pacific archipelagos were flooded. and sometimes even stopped. change the availability of water and change crop yields. in 1896-1995. (Imagine stating this in a country where 38% of the area suffers from permanent surface water deficit!) The same paper also deemed an extension of the vegetation period by 60 to 120 days as a disaster. would be detrimental. In Cracow. high-risk scenarios are really difficult to use to motivate short-term. I cite here only some few data from Poland. the number of all storms decreased.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/chap3. But Broecker remained skeptical that governments or industry would commit the resources needed to slow the rise of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. there is more water that evaporates from the ocean (and subsequently falls as snow on the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps) than there is water that flows to the seas from melting glaciers ." Pielke explained. according to Wallace Broecker. 2002. In the last 100 years. ‘08 (Professor Zbigniew. melt a lot of ice. (25) In 1999. so we're essentially doing an experiment whose result remains uncertain. catastrophic scenarios. “Fear Propaganda.Empirically Proven Idso. Founder and current chairman of The Board of the Center for The Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.”http://www. and have started to grow.

We know this from the world's biggest cross-national. there are six times more cold-related deaths than heat-related deaths.000 more heat-related deaths a year.. This is not an argument to do nothing in the face of global warming." In fact. relies on empirical (as opposed to theoretical) data-based (as opposed to modelbased). they state that sometimes an actual increase in local biodiversity is observed. what climate alarmists typically predict for the next century. in their own words. the case for which we lay out in Section II (Physiological Reasons for Rejecting the CO2-Induced Global Warming Extinction Hypothesis) of our Major Report Global Warming Doesn’t Kill.. But focusing only on the negative lays the groundwork for extremely poor policies. http://co2science.000. the mid-Pliocene warm interval. "persistence and range shifts (migrations) seem to have been the predominant terrestrial biotic response (mainly of plants) to warmer intervals in Earth's history. (2008) and Willis et al.telegraph. and almost 1. every three years instead of every 20 years. rather than every three years. But cold-related deaths will decrease by 20. It Saves Lomborg. peer-reviewed studies under the aegis of Professor William Keatinge of the University of London. in the hope of convincing politicians to commit to drastic carbon cuts.Gonzaga Debate Institute 126 Warming Core [Craig. These intervals included the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Keith.org/articles/V15/N24/EDIT.which are most often referred to as bioclimatic envelope models . up to 37% of plant species globally will be committed to extinction owing to lack of suitable climate space. The number of saved lives will outweigh the increase in heat-related deaths until at least 2200.8 million fewer cold-related deaths.php] In an impressive and enlightening review of the subject. Winter regularly takes many more lives than any heatwave: 25. 2010). the two researchers say that "biotic adaptation to climate change has been considered much less frequently. there will be almost 400.they describe as "the ability of populations to persist in their current location and to undergo evolutionary adaptation in response to changing environmental conditions (Sgro et al." This phenomenon . the Eocene climatic optimum. For the UK. 2005)" ."predicts that.000 people each year die in Britain from excess cold. or even warmer than. infirm. Sherwood. Willis and MacDonald (2011) begin by noting that key research efforts have focused on extinction scenarios derived from "a suite of predictive species distribution models (e. (2004) . “The Telegraph”. CO2 Science." And they write that one of the most-cited studies of this type . strokes and illnesses caused or exacerbated by the cold. they make a strong point of noting that "evidence for global extinctions or extinctions resulting from reduction of population sizes on the scale predicted for the next century owing to loss of suitable climate space (Thomas et al. 2004) is not apparent.000 to 50." In addition.which is sometimes referred to as evolutionary resilience .4 million lives each year . But bitterly cold spells will decrease as quickly. was to examine the effects of significant and rapid warming on earth's plants during several previous intervals of the planet's climatic history that were as warm as. And it is important to note that this approach. homeless and very young are at the highest risk of hypothermia. The old." citing MacDonald et al. and the Holocene.. (2009). Global warming will mean more frequent heatwaves. in contrast to the approach typically used by climate alarmists."¶ In contrast. 2009 [Bjorn.html] But low temperatures also kill.¶ And what were the primary findings of the two researchers?¶ As they describe them. “Global Warming Will Save Millions of Lives. according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – by 2100.that "predict current and future range shifts and estimate the distances and rates of movement required for species to track the changes in climate and move into suitable new climate space. the Eemian interglacial." And they note that this approach to the subject "recognizes that ongoing change is the norm in nature and one of the dynamic processes that generates and maintains biodiversity patterns and processes. coming once every two decades. former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute. 3-12-2009.¶ The aim of Willis and MacDonald's review.”.” http://www. heart attacks. therefore.that of Thomas et al. Across Europe. Guisan and Thuiller.g. reconstructions (as opposed to projections) of the past (as opposed to the future). Warmer temperatures will save 1. This is the wrong response: even if the Kyoto Protocol's promised carbon emission reductions had been fully implemented across this century. “Plant Response to Significant and Rapid Global Warming." while "the same responses also appear to have occurred during intervals of rapid climate change.uk/comment/personal-view/4981028/Global-warming-will-save-millions-of-lives. 6-12-2012.co.000. Hunt's research was presented at a Copenhagen summit that had key speakers with views more negative than consensus expectations. on the basis of mid-range climatic warming scenarios for 2050. The only global study suggests that this is true internationally: by 2050. the Keatinge studies show heat-related deaths caused by global warming will increase by 2. temperatures would only be .

Tickell will undoubtedly claim that he was talking about what could happen many. What will happen beyond that clearly depends much more on emissions in future centuries. expects a temperature rise by the end of the century between 1. for instance. energy. And yes. of course. the IPCC expects the average person on earth to be 1. If our starting point is to prove that Armageddon is on its way. 8/15. But he is wrong. To prepare adequately for the challenge of global warming. and. First. and will not identify the smartest policy choices. the models unanimously show that Greenland's ice shelf will be reduced. and even in three centuries. While it is probably true that the sun will burn up the earth in 4-5bn years' time. Bjorn. The bottom line is that benefits from global warming right now outweigh the costs (the benefit is about 0. it does give a slightly different perspective on the need for immediate repenting. that would cost $25 billion a year. if it weren't for the fact that they get such big play in the media. Let us just take a look at the realistic impact of such a 4C temperature rise. writes that a global warming causing a 4C temperature increase by the end of the century would be a "catastrophe" and the beginning of the "extinction" of the human race. Within this range. although sealevel rise will continue for many centuries to come. and could be dismissed as sociological oddities. Further.Gonzaga Debate Institute 127 Warming Core reduced by an insignificant 0. of course. water. forestry. This is simply silly. Oliver Tickell.05 per cent of GDP on researching non-carbon-emitting energy technologies. His evidence? That 4C would mean that all the ice on the planet would melt. coastal zones.2°C. the IPCC. it would require the surge to occur within a single human lifespan. say. But to cause billions to die.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/15/carbonemissions. This sort of scare tactic is insidiously wrong and misleading. If we want to cut temperatures faster – and identify new technology that can cool houses in summer and save lives – we need cheap alternative energy technology within 20 to 40 years. at a cost of $180 billion a year. Second. six centuries from now mainly depends on emissions five centuries from now (where it seems unlikely non-carbon emitting technology such as solar panels will not have become economically competitive). Let us just remember that the UN climate panel. and it would do a lot more than massive carbon cuts to fight warming and save lives. this is the scariest he could ever conjure). the 4C temperature rise is predicted on a century scale – this is what we talk about and can plan for. we will not consider all of the evidence. ¶ Warming doesn't cause extinction. This is simply not the end of humanity. Tickell tells us how the 80m sea-level rise would wipe out all the world's coastal infrastructure and much of the world's farmland – "undoubtedly" causing billions to die.25% of global GDP). bringing the long-term sea level rise to 70-80m. global warming is a net benefit now. did a survey of all the problems and all the benefits accruing from a temperature rise over this century of about approximately 4C.5% of GDP by 2300. sea levels will rise 18-59 centimetres – Tickell is simply exaggerating by a factor of up to 400. Tickell's claim that 4C will be the beginning of our extinction is again many times beyond wrong and misleading.their authors are hacks Lomborg ‘8 (Director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School. the IPCC predicts that. Global warming will continue to be a net benefit until about 2070. But this is disingenuous. Professor Gary Yohe. one of the lead economists of the IPCC. “Warming warnings get overheated”. more people will die from heat. by the end of the century.co. seeing billions of people die. we must acknowledge both the good and the bad that it will bring. but increase in the temperate zones.climatechange) These alarmist predictions are becoming quite bizarre. http://www. mimicking a firebrand preacher who claims the earth is coming to an end and we need to repent. If every country committed to spending 0. reaching a total damage cost equivalent to about 3. For the Copenhagen Consensus. it will not be a challenge to our civilisation. many millennia from now. but Antarctic ice will increase even more (because of increased precipitation in Antarctica) for the next three centuries. made with no data to back it up. etc. heat and cold deaths and disease. The Guardian. unmanaged ecosystems. Clearly.8 and 6. If anything. Tickell has maxed out the campaigners' scare potential (because there is no more ice to melt. The model evaluates the impacts on agriculture.0C.guardian. Given that CO2 stays in the atmosphere about a century.700% richer by the end of this century. but fewer from cold. Third. also be benefits: as temperatures rise. what happens with the temperature. agricultural yields will decline in the tropics. . flooding everything we hold dear. when the damages will begin to outweigh the benefits. there will.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 128 .

global warming. There are no other individuals listed at the Division that I could find. NU is a University in which there is nothing to steal. [Tom] Chalko said that global seismic activity was increasing faster than any other global warming indicator on Earth and that this increase is extremely alarming. belief system and social status.” NewsBuster." "Meaning of the Aura and its colours.com utilizes the claims of a scientist with some very questionable ideas and theories. In addition. the planet didn't explode long ago when the planet was much hotter than it is now. it appears to be nothing more than Chalko's own webpage (or one of his webpages)." For example. But Chalko's claims in the CBS/MSNBC articles are tame compared to the assertions in one of his papers linked to at the SER: The Earth could explode as a result of global warming! I kid you not. . Funny how. SansPretense provides links to two articles that refute Chalko's overall thesis about earthquakes." If you visit the site." and "Choosing garments.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 129 AT: Extinction [Chalko] Chalko’s claims are wrong and he’s an idiot Hube 8 (D. nationality. NU is a University that is nowhere in particular and yet everywhere on Earth. regardless of age. so by studying any fragment in sufficient detail you can eventually learn the lot NU is a University whose Purpose precisely coincides with The Purpose of the entire Universe . NU is a University that will never be referred to as a building or a business. not what many would consider scientific. Got it. Take a look at the "university's" website to see what I mean: NU is a University in which there are no professors.com and MSNBC. Scientific Engineering Research is Tom Chalko. NU is a University in which the distribution of information will resemble the fractal distribution of the information in the entire Universe." and "Matching your Aura with the environment. bio-energy and chakras. There's just one problem: There is no Natural University.he is "Head of Geophysics Division at Scientific Engineering Research.the "NU" standing for Natural University. Member of the National Association of Scholars and Former Chair of the Delaware Textbook Assessment Committee. So. no project is ever banned and information is always open for discussion for those who can comprehend it." MSNBC's version of the article lists [another of] Chalko's "credentials" at bottom -. Right. June 19th. “CBS... Australia. simply because knowledge is given away free to start with. NU is a University in which everyone is a perpetual STUDENT and everyone learns from everyone else." Then there's "Healing and Consciousness" which includes the "Role of Aura. Dr. er. Chalko is a professor.) An article at CBSNews. NU is a University in which the study of the limitations of the material reality will be only a part of exploring the Universal Law and the Purpose of Existence.S. Chalko contributes to a "scientific" journal that's .. Some of Chalko's other "scientific" interests/workshops are the study of "auras" which includes "How to see your own Aura. in other words. NU is a University that accepts anyone who has enough motivation to develop his/her individual intellect. The analysis of more than 386." the use of "colour to enhance your well-being. NU is a University in which there are no secrets. "facilitator of knowledge" (since Natural University has no professors) at a university that doesn't exist/yet exists everywhere. as the blog SansPretense points out. Who exactly is this Dr. decorating home and office. In this case it's "seismic activity is five times more energetic than 20 years ago" and the reason is due to -you guessed it -.org/blogs/d-s-hube/2008/06/19/cbs-msnbc-websites-promote-earthquakes-tie-global-warming. The research proves that destructive ability of earthquakes on Earth increases alarmingly fast and that this trend is set to continue. http://newsbusters. and Tom Chalko is Scientific Engineering Research. only Autonomous Individual Intellects that respect each other's Freedom of Choice. NU is a University that will be impossible to close down. gender. MSNBC Websites Promote Earthquakes' Tie to Global Warming. Tom Chalko? And how precisely are earthquakes related to global warming? The blog SansPretense has done a pretty thorough job dissecting Chalko's claims. unless the problem of "global warming" is comprehensively and urgently addressed.maximizing the satisfaction from conscious existence." "Amplifying your Aura vibration.000 earthquakes between 1973 and 2007 recorded on the US Geological Survey database proved that the global annual energy of earthquakes on Earth began increasing very fast since 1990. It's called the NU Journal of Discovery -. as well as investigating some of Chalko's other "research. um. Mt Best.

but fewer from cold. coastal zones. unmanaged ecosystems.0C. flooding everything we hold dear. energy. bringing the long-term sea level rise to 70-80m. the models unanimously show that Greenland's ice shelf will be reduced. http://www. Professor Gary Yohe. heat and cold deaths and disease. But he is wrong. Third.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 130 AT: Extinction [Tickell] Warming doesn't cause extinction. and. etc. This sort of scare tactic is insidiously wrong and misleading. and could be dismissed as sociological oddities. Let us just remember that the UN climate panel. Tickell's claim that 4C will be the beginning of our extinction is again many times beyond wrong and misleading. but Antarctic ice will increase even more (because of increased precipitation in Antarctica) for the next three centuries. the IPCC predicts that. 8/15. did a survey of all the problems and all the benefits accruing from a temperature rise over this century of about approximately 4C. If anything. Oliver Tickell. . Within this range. The Guardian. also be benefits: as temperatures rise. Bjorn.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/15/carbonemissions. Tickell tells us how the 80m sea-level rise would wipe out all the world's coastal infrastructure and much of the world's farmland – "undoubtedly" causing billions to die. of course. For the Copenhagen Consensus. mimicking a firebrand preacher who claims the earth is coming to an end and we need to repent. reaching a total damage cost equivalent to about 3. seeing billions of people die. the 4C temperature rise is predicted on a century scale – this is what we talk about and can plan for. when the damages will begin to outweigh the benefits.700% richer by the end of this century. if it weren't for the fact that they get such big play in the media. Second. made with no data to back it up. Given that CO2 stays in the atmosphere about a century. The model evaluates the impacts on agriculture.climatechange) These alarmist predictions are becoming quite bizarre. this is the scariest he could ever conjure). And yes. sea levels will rise 18-59 centimetres – Tickell is simply exaggerating by a factor of up to 400. and even in three centuries. there will. say. what happens with the temperature. more people will die from heat.25% of global GDP). This is simply not the end of humanity. This is simply silly. it does give a slightly different perspective on the need for immediate repenting. for instance. the IPCC.5% of GDP by 2300. many millennia from now. although sealevel rise will continue for many centuries to come. While it is probably true that the sun will burn up the earth in 4-5bn years' time. But to cause billions to die. What will happen beyond that clearly depends much more on emissions in future centuries. the IPCC expects the average person on earth to be 1. Let us just take a look at the realistic impact of such a 4C temperature rise.guardian. The bottom line is that benefits from global warming right now outweigh the costs (the benefit is about 0. it will not be a challenge to our civilisation. water. Clearly. of course. agricultural yields will decline in the tropics. Tickell will undoubtedly claim that he was talking about what could happen many. by the end of the century.their authors are hacks Lomborg ‘8 (Director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School. forestry.co. global warming is a net benefit now.8 and 6. expects a temperature rise by the end of the century between 1. His evidence? That 4C would mean that all the ice on the planet would melt. First. writes that a global warming causing a 4C temperature increase by the end of the century would be a "catastrophe" and the beginning of the "extinction" of the human race. six centuries from now mainly depends on emissions five centuries from now (where it seems unlikely non-carbon emitting technology such as solar panels will not have become economically competitive). But this is disingenuous. Further. Tickell has maxed out the campaigners' scare potential (because there is no more ice to melt. one of the lead economists of the IPCC. “Warming warnings get overheated”. it would require the surge to occur within a single human lifespan. Global warming will continue to be a net benefit until about 2070. but increase in the temperate zones.

―paleoflood records from nineteen rivers in Arizona and southern Utah. which integrates a large portion of the interior western United States.‖ which corresponded. in Ely‘s view.S.‖ Then.6 ka.S. To test for long-term changes in flood magnitudes and frequencies in the Mississippi River system of the United States. http://nipccreport. and whether other factors might be behind such trends if they in fact exist.‖ such as occurred with the ―cluster of floods from 5 to 3.‖ and that information ―was then compared with paleoclimatic data to determine how the temporal and spatial patterns in the occurrence of floods reflect the prevailing climate. followed by progressive levee construction. Ely writes. PH. wet period immediately following the warm mid-Holocene. such as the Medieval Warm Period. and globally. emplacement dates. and physical characteristics of over 15.‖ which was ―associated with a switch to glacial advances. but not in the way suggested by the IPCC. ―significant climate. and other modifications. .‖ they put together a geospatial database consisting of ―the locations.D and Founder of and Current Chairman of the Board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. (2008) ―constructed a hydrologic database consisting of data from 26 rated stations (with both stage and discharge measurements) and 40 stage-only stations. Ely (1997) wrote. were combined to identify regional variations in the frequency of extreme floods. Keith. ―the largest floods tend to be from spring snowmelt after winters of heavy snow accumulation in the mountains of Utah.‖ As a result of these operations.‖ Distilling her findings down to a single succinct statement and speaking specifically of the southwestern United States. In this section we highlight studies addressing both questions. it would appear man has indeed been responsible for the majority of the increased flooding of the rivers of the Mississippi system over the past century or so. many of which coincided ―with glacial advances and cool.‖ but they indicate ―the largest and most pervasive contributors to increased flooding on the Mississippi River system were wing dikes and related navigational structures. Pinter et al. bendway weirs. which was first noted in European historical records. including over 150 radiocarbon dates and evidence of over 250 flood deposits.‖ which occurred in conjunction with ―glacial advances in mountain ranges throughout the western United States‖ during the ―cool. ―the navigable rivers of the Mississippi system have been intensively engineered.‖ With respect to the Colorado River watershed. and cooler. The question that needs addressing by the region‘s inhabitants has nothing to do with CO2 and everything to do with how to ―balance the local benefits of river engineering against the potential for large-scale flood magnification. however. ―are very plausibly related to global-scale changes in the climate system.000 structural features constructed along the study rivers over the past 100–150 years.. ―to the widespread Medieval Warm Period.pdf] The IPCC claims flooding has become more frequent and severe in response to twentieth century global warming. navigational dams. meander cutoffs.org/reports/2011/pdf/2011NIPCCinterimreport. and northern New Mexico. are times of dramatic decreases in the number of high-magnitude floods in this region‖ [emphasis added].and/or land use-driven increases in flow were detected. in her words. ―global warm periods. 2011 [Craig.‖In a study designed to determine the environmental origins of extreme flooding events throughout the southwestern United States. Climate Change Reconsidered Interlim Report. wetter conditions.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 131 AT: Flooding Climate Change Doesn’t Cause Flooding Idso. But it is important to establish whether floods are truly becoming more frequent or severe. moist conditions both in the western U.‖ Then came a ―sharp drop in the frequency of large floods in the southwest from AD 1100-1300. Sherwood. write. she writes.‖ The results of this comparison indicated ―long-term variations in the frequency of extreme floods over the Holocene are related to changes in the climate and prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that affect the conditions conducive to extreme flood-generating storms in each region. western Colorado.‖ These changes. write.‖ In discussing the implications of their findings.‖ With the advent of the Little Ice Age. there was another ―substantial jump in the number of floods in the southwestern U. high lake levels. Pinter et al.‖ The frequency of extreme floods also increased during the early and middle portions of the first millennium AD.‖ Hence. Pinter et al. and some of these modifications are associated with large decreases in the rivers‘ capacity to convey flood flows. bridges. to help ―quantify changes in flood levels at each station in response to construction of wing dikes.

2011 [Monique. 2011). Comparison of turbidite frequency to MAR-inferred climate phases (ca. This conclusion runs counter to that of the IPCC. Fred.sciencedirect. The six RCMs were forced with a common set of reanalysis data. resulting in more frequent light precipitation and less frequent moderate and heavy precipitation Climate Change Reconsidered – 2011 Interim Report 124 intensity. and in fact just the opposite had occurred there: The three scientists determined.” 2011 Interim Report. and S. (2010) found the precipitation predictions of the IPCC had not been realized throughout the part of the Pacific that is home to the Hawaiian Islands. which equates destructive precipitation events and the flooding they cause with global warming. CO2 does not link to increased rainfall. ―is often regarded as generally valid for Central Europe. 1450 BC to AD 420. ―since the 1980s. Idso. Furthermore. and this. Carter. quantitative absolute June-July–August (JJA) temperatures reconstructed from Biogenic Silica (BSi) flux and chironomids in the sediments of Lake Silvaplana are available from ca. The lowest-predicting model was low almost everywhere in North America compared to the mean of the six models and.1). Transitions between cool and/or wet and warm and/or dry climate phases can be inferred from centennial trends in low-frequency MAR. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. AK) As noted in the previous chapter (see Section 4. Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research. Palaeoclimatology. extreme values of which were estimated by fitting a tailed distribution to the data. 1450 BC to AD 420. Chu et al. The other four models showed greatly differing spatial patterns of extremes from each other. the frequency of turbidites increased. http://nipccreport. Marine Geologist. Following the transition to cool and/or wet climates. can be found in the sediments of Lake Silvaplana (Upper Engadine.. 2011. 11-15-2011. Specifically.3.org/reports/2011/2011report.html. and those differences were found to be statistically significant by F test. which run at a higher spatial resolution than global climate models (GCMs). there has been a change in the types of precipitation intensity. with the highest extremes in the Southeast and along the West Coast. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. taking into account their spatial aspects. Long-term cool and/or wet and warm and/or dry climate phases can be reconstructed from anomalies in low-frequency Mass Accumulation Rates (MAR).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 132 Warmer Climates Reduces Floods Stewart. SciVerse. the frequency of turbidites was reduced during warm and/or dry climates of ca. However. 2011 (Craig D. the highest-predicting model was above the mean almost everywhere. Switzerland).com/science/article/pii/S0031018211004597] Insight into the relationship between floods and climate.. Robert. Chapter 7. http://www. accessed 7/5/13. which are most relevant to risk forecasts. when comparing absolute levels. under a wide range of climate variability in Central Europe from ca. and Singer. However. similarly. The researchers . Palaeoecology”. (2010) compared estimates of local extreme precipitation events using six regional climate models (RCMs). as well as a ―shorter annual number of days with intense precipitation and smaller consecutive 5-day precipitation amounts and smaller fraction of annual precipitation due to events exceeding the 1961–1990 95th percentile in the recent epoch [1980–2007] relative to the first epoch [1950– 1979].Schliep et al. The difference between the two models was almost 60mm of daily precipitation (for the one-hundredyear extreme event) over much of the United States. “Palaeogeography. 570 BC–AD 120) suggests an increase in the frequency of paleofloods during cool and/or wet climates and windows of cooler JJA temperatures. This is because low-frequency MAR reflects glacier length changes in the Swiss Alps and glacier lengths are a response to longterm climate conditions. in that chapter we noted Stankoviansky (2003) found extreme and destructive rainfall events were much more common throughout the Myjava Hill Land of Slovakia during the Little Ice Age than they have been subsequently. the models exhibited strong disagreement. Similarly. The area analyzed was North America. The frequency of local paleofloods can be reconstructed from turbidite frequency. “Climate Change Reconsidered. in his words (and in harmony with the many references he cites). The six RCMs showed similar general spatial patterns of extremes across North America. created by running a climate model that was fed real-world data for a 20-year simulation period. where winter precipitation was the response variable and the onehundred-yearextremum of daily winter precipitation was the test statistic. NIPCC. no discernable relationship between the rate of transition from warm and/or dry to cool and/or wet climate and turbidite could be found. 1450 BC–AD 420) and JJA temperatures (ca. In a model-based study of precipitation. 570 BC to AD 120 (Stewart et al.

http://nipccreport.plants continue to grow underwater due to more CO2.html. accessed 7/5/13. “higher underwater net photosynthesis at 200 μM CO2 increased by 2.7.org/reports/2011/2011report. and Singer. that “plants submerged for 7 days in water at air equilibrium (18 μM CO2) suffered loss of biomass. . they can not only survive.Gonzaga Debate Institute 133 Warming Core speculate that when driven by multiple GCMs rather than reanalysis data.” In addition. Floods do not have an impact.” These submergence-induced phenomena— if long sustained—typically lead to plant death.” while measuring numerous plant responses. Marine Geologist. 2005). extreme rainfall event predictions may vary considerably among models and extend well beyond the realm of reality. “Climate Change Reconsidered. This revealed. Pedersen et al. who write. The lesson we take from Schliep et al. grew several 28-dayold plants consisting of three Nordic Gene Bank accessions (H21. and H546) for seven additional days while exposing them to four different treatments: “aerated root zone controls with shoots in air. Chapter 7.” They state this phenomenon “is likely to have contributed to the greater root growth in submerged plants with the higher CO2 supply. Idso. Carter. they indicate plants experiencing total submergence during floods typically lose mass and die under normal conditions. compared with at air equilibrium CO2.” Pedersen et al. stagnant root zone with shoots also completely submerged with 18 μM CO2 (air equilibrium). with respect to terrestrial plants in general. which we equate with complete submergence in water. To learn how the wetland plant Hordeum marinum Huds. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. AK) At the other end of the moisture spectrum. Thus.to 3. and S. is that model-based claims of a CO2-induced increase in extreme precipitation events should be treated with considerable skepticism. 2011. they note the latter CO2-enriched plants “tillered similarly to plants with shoots in air. As a result. (2010). stagnant root zone with shoots also completely submerged with 200 μM CO2 (simulating CO2 enrichment in many natural flood waters). compared to plants submerged with water in equilibrium with normal ambient air (Setter et al. but when the water is supersaturated with CO2. This phenomenon was recently studied by Pedersen et al.” citing Setter et al. (1999). that complete submergence in water “impedes exchange of O2 and CO2 with shoots (Voesenek et al.. would respond when fully submerged in water. Robert. NIPCC.” 2011 Interim Report.. stagnant root zone with shoots in air. as they describe it. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. further report that CO2 enrichment of submerging water to ~290 μM enhanced by twofold the growth of two cultivars of rice. they actually continue to grow. 2006). whereas those with 200 μM CO2 continued to grow. and stomatal closure (Mommer and Visser. the range of extreme outcomes would only increase. we confront the problem of an over-sufficiency of water. and they state such elevated CO2 concentrations “have been reported at various field sites.” and that underwater photosynthesis “is limited by CO2 availability owing to slow diffusion in water. Fred.2-fold sugar concentrations in roots of submerged plants. 2011 (Craig D.” Finally.. 1989). H90. (1987) and Ram et al.

PH. the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi.php] The world's climate alarmists would have us believe that they know all they need to know about earth's climate system and its biological ramifications to justify an unbelievably expensive and radical restructuring of the way the industrialized world both obtains and utilizes energy. 5-19-12. they concluded that "contemporary evolution could help to maintain the functionality of microbial processes at the base of marine food webs in the face of global change [our italics]." as well as in a single-clone experiment that was initiated with one "haphazardly chosen genotype. and Craig. huxleyi population off Chile in high-CO2 waters (Beaufort et al." And with this tantalizing possibility in mind." Ocean Acidification Is Good. to evolve in response to ocean acidification in two 500generation selection experiments.where the medium CO2 treatment was chosen to represent the atmospheric CO2 level projected for the beginning of the next century. Beneficial to Organisms Idso. 6-11-2012 The Potential for Adaptive Evolution to Enable the World's Most Important Calcifying Organism to Cope with Ocean Acidification. from their objective review of the pertinent scientific literature. that the magnitude and even the sign of the global . But is this really so? In an eye-opening "perspective" article published a couple of years ago in the 9 December 2009 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. in both the single." which often depict negative effects. “The Unsettled Science of Ocean Warming and Acidification” . but the research team reports that they were "up to 50% higher in adapted [medium and high CO2] compared with non-adapted cultures.org/articles/V15/N28/EDIT." And they also note. describe their assessment of various possible responses of the global ocean's seawater carbonate system. Lohbeck et al. Keith.D and Founder of and current chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. three researchers from the Marine Biogeochemistry Section of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel. This they did in a multiclone experiment designed to provide existing genetic variation that they said "would be readily available to genotypic selection. they go on to say that phytoplanktonic species with short generation times "may be able to respond to environmental alterations through adaptive evolution." which observation is said by them to be indicative of "acrosspopulation variation in calcification. they studied." And when all was said and done. http://co2science. However. were somewhat lower under CO2-enriched conditions in all cultures. 2012 [Sherwood. Norway. thus surpassing predicted rates of ongoing global change including ocean acidification." where evolutionary adaptation would obviously require new mutations. Germany." In other ruminations on their findings. the marine biologists indicate that what they call the swift adaptation processes they observed may "have the potential to affect food-web dynamics and biogeochemical cycles on timescales of a few years. as they describe it." Calcification rates. 2011). when tested under ocean acidification conditions.org/articles/V15/N19/EDIT. in this regard. to ocean warming and associated changes in vertical mixing and overturning circulation. PH. Keith. So what did they learn? Compared with populations kept at ambient CO2 partial pressure. 2012 [Sherwood. plus its physical and biological carbon pumps. the three German researchers grew them in batch cultures over some 500 asexual generations at three different atmospheric CO2 concentrations . on the other hand. found that those selected at increased CO2 levels "exhibited higher growth rates. and Riebesell and his colleagues thus conclude.php] Our present understanding of the sensitivity of marine life to ocean acidification is based primarily on short-term experiments. as well as the closely-allied phenomena of ocean acidification and carbonation. that "a recent study reports surprisingly high coccolith mass in an E." Working with freshly isolated genotypes from Bergen. http://co2science.. medium (1100 ppm) and high (2200 ppm) . Craig. All of these phenomena. "the ability of the world's single most important calcifying organism.D and Founder of and Current Chairman of the Board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. are interlinked.ambient (400 ppm). in line with findings of rapid microevolution identified here.and multi-clone experiment. many of which are nonlinear and extremely complicated.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 134 AT: Ocean Acidification Oceans Acidification Is Solved Via Adaption Idso.

Studies of growth. Hmm. like life above the water. Many of the headlines forecasting “Death to Reefs” come from studies of ocean water at extreme pH’s that will never occur globally.) CO2 science has an extraordinary data base of 1103 studies of the effects of “acidification” on marine life. received a Bachelor of Science first class and won the FH Faulding and the Swan Brewery prizes at the University of Western Australia. and putting more carbon into the water is not necessarily a bad thing. fertility and survival show that. Jo has has done over 200 radio interviews. it’s virtually impossible for CO2 levels to rise high enough to effect that kind of change. they write that the impact it will have on marine life "is still uncertain. calcification. Indeed. 11.1 pH unit in the last 200 years. . http://joannenova. as they elucidate. marine life evolved under conditions were most of the time the world was warmer and had more CO2 in the atmosphere than it does today. if things were a little less alkaline. on average. and vaporized life on earth. They are an extreme environment. That said. we should watch and monitor the oceans careful. That’s a shift so large. There will be winners and losers. “Ocean Acidification — a little bit less alkalinity could be a good thing. Western Australia. than they are to shrink. but then. Some headlines come from studies of hydrothermal vents where CO2 bubbles up from the ocean floor."¶ Ocean acidification will be slow and stable. Nova received a Graduate Certificate in Scientific Communication from the Australian National University in 1989.) Yes. No." What is more. Not surprisingly they find changes to marine life near the vents. and that are beyond even what the IPCC is forecasting. neglecting the possibility of evolutionary adaptation.au/2011/09/oceanacidification-a-little-bit-less-alkalinity-could-be-a-good-thing/] Studies of how marine life copes with less alkaline conditions include many experiments with water at pH values in a range beyond anything that is likely on planet Earth — they go beyond the bounds of what’s possible.com. She was formerly an associate lecturer in Science Communication at the ANU and is based in Perth. . is not the same as the gas nature breathes — CO2. There are estimates that the pH of the ocean has shifted about 0. metabolism. Her major was microbiology. they imply that even what we do think we know could well be wrong. First. watch out for some of the more devastating headlines which also come from studies where researchers changed the pH by tossing hydrochloric acid into the tank. because." the other side being what they call "ocean carbonation.Gonzaga Debate Institute 135 Warming Core ocean's carbon cycle feedback to climate change are. Second. even under the worst of the worst case scenarios by the most sadistic models.000 fold change in the concentration of hydrogen ions). prize-winning science graduate. they write that "our present understanding of biologically driven feedback mechanisms is still rudimentary." and that with respect to many of their magnitudes. Even the IPCC’s highest end “scenario A2″ estimate predicts a peak change in the range of 0. "yet unknown. nothing like what we might expect to convert the worlds oceans too. They reason that any change beyond 0." They note. Thirdly. "will likely be beneficial to some groups of photosynthetic organisms.5 pH units is “far far beyond the realms of reality” even if you are concerned about coral reefs in the year 2300 (see Tans 2009). Four pH units means 10. (Yet still someone thought it was worth studying what would happen if.8." and that the phenomenon itself is but "one side of the story. plant microbe. the reefs are more likely to have more life on and around them. that happened. proven by 1000 studies.it improves ocean resiliency Codling ‘11 [Jo." With respect to ocean acidification. is that it doesn’t seem to be bad as we might have expected– nonetheless. there is no chance the Great Barrier Reef will be gone in the next 100 years: 1103 studies show that if the worlds oceans were slightly less basic then marine life as a whole will be slightly more likely to grow. as they say. many on the Australian ABC. molecular biology. "our understanding is too immature to even make a guess. for example. using those five measures of health.” Sept. but on the whole. the dots in the graph above represent study results. the pH of these areas ranges right down to 2. in their words. even if we burned every last fossil. every tree." which. life-below-water is based on carbon. hypothetically. and the ones below zero tell us there will be some losers. it’s not going to occur in the next few thousand years.[4] and she did honours research in 1990. marine life would benefit. Chlorine." Thus. (The strange thing about the studies with hydrochloric acid. "our present knowledge of pH/CO2 sensitivities of marine organisms is based almost entirely on short-term perturbation experiments. that "our understanding of biological responses to ocean change is still in its infancy. even though there will be more winners (above zer0). actually. as they describe it. yet some studies consider the effects of water that is shifted by 2 or even 4 entire pH units.6 units by 2300. it seems like a dubious practice to use in studying the health of corals. in particular.

however. talks spent considerable time claiming carbon dioxide emissions will cause catastrophic ocean acidification. but it is making our seas more acidic. Global Warming and Coral Reefs. and be fertile. Ph.org/publications/environment%20climate/article/26815/Ocean_Acidification_Scare_Pushed_at_ Copenhagen. An Associated Press headline. The highest CO2 concentrations produced “higher growth rates and biomass yields” than the lower CO2 conditions. however. . alarmists at the U. Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations would make the oceans less alkaline but not acidic.html) With global temperatures continuing their decade-long decline and United Nations-sponsored global warming talks falling apart in Copenhagen. The French and American scientists reported “an overall increase of the world ocean average chlorophyll concentration by about 22 percent” during the prior two decades of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. “Sea star growth and feeding rates increased with water temperature from 5ºC to 21ºC. from 8.” the study concluded. and sustaining oceanic food-webs. regardless of whether temperatures rise. then it can affect the one billion people who depend on fish as their principle source of protein.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core survive. pH values lower than 7. for example. Since human industrial activity first began emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere a little more than 200 years ago. making them alkaline. show no such catastrophe is likely to occur. went so far as to call ocean acidification the “evil twin” of climate change.0 are considered acidic. The United Kingdom’s environment secretary. grazing rates and total grazer abundance and reproduction were not significantly affected by CO2-induced effects.” “Far too many predictions of CO2-induced catastrophes are treated by alarmists as sure to occur.” Benn’s claim of oceans becoming “more acidic” is misleading.1. In a 2006 study published in Global Change Biology. “Ocean Acidification Scare Pushed at Copenhagen. Hilary Benn. “If this continues as a problem.. The ecosystems were “surprisingly resilient” to changes in atmospheric CO2.” In a 2009 study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. phytoplankton blooms. bacterial and phytoplankton abundances and productivity.” said Benn in his speech. and we have to feed another 2½ to 3 billion people over the next 40 to 50 years. “The phenomenon of CO2-induced ocean acidification appears to be no different.heartland. Higher CO2 levels may well fuel “subsequent primary production. In a 2005 study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. not acidic. Numerous recent scientific studies show higher carbon dioxide levels in the world’s oceans have the same beneficial effect on marine life as higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have on terrestrial plant life.1. most of the world’s major media outlets produced stories claiming ocean acidification is threatening the world’s marine life.D. scientists subjected marine organisms to varying concentrations of CO2. The world’s oceans have a pH of 8.1.. Taylor is a senior fellow of The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News. Following Benn’s December 14 speech and public relations efforts. scientists examined trends in chlorophyll concentrations.2 to 8. They absorb about a quarter of the total that we produce. 136 Climate change proves Oceans and marine bioD are resilient – alarmist predictions empirically denied Taylor ‘10 (James M. including abrupt changes of CO2 concentration.N. “The fact is our seas absorb CO2. scientists reported. author of the 2009 book CO2. scientists observed higher CO2 levels are correlated with better growth conditions for oceanic life.” said Craig Idso. critical building blocks in the oceanic food chain. while those higher than 7. initiated the Copenhagen ocean scare with a high-profile speech and numerous media interviews claiming ocean acidification threatens the world’s food supply. the pH of the oceans has fallen merely 0. when real-world observations show these doomsday scenarios to be highly unlikely or even virtual impossibilities.0 is considered neutral. The latest scientific data.0 are considered alkaline.” Feb 10 http://www. and “the ecosystem composition. Water with a pH of 7. In a 2008 study published in Biogeosciences. A doubling of current [CO2] also increased growth rates both with and without a concurrent temperature increase from 12ºC to 15ºC.

and Oklahoma highways weren't jammed with storm-chasers. asking research scientist Robin Tanamachi if there really were more tornadoes happening thanks to “climate change:”¶ “It seems like there’s been more severe weather. Scientific Journalist.¶ There is no real evidence that tornadoes are happening more often. While public trust in the media is at an all-time low.¶ Linking any particular weather event to climate change is always tricky. according to a study by Roger Pielke. Global warming may well end up making them more frequent or intense. Tornadoes Aren’t Becoming More Frequent Because Of Climate Change Sheffield. This tornado now has killed 24 people in the town of Moore. EF0. A lot more are being recorded now than in 1950. for instance.¶ When National Geographic magazine asked "What's Up With the Weather" in acover story last September. as our intuition would tell us. intuition is not a reliable guide to tornadoes. and that a warmer atmosphere with more water vapor in it is making such events more likely. But it might also actually suppress them—the science just isn't clear yet.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 137 AT: Natural Disasters Climate Change Doesn’t Cause Tornadoes Kunzig. 5-22-2013. and tornadoes are the very picture of terrifying atmospheric energy. after 1953 and 1965.com/news/2013/05/130522-tornado-climate-change-oklahomascience-global-warming/] We're adding energy to the atmosphere by trapping heat with greenhouse gases.¶ A perfect case in point is the notion popularized by environmental alarmist Al Gore that the Earth is experiencing more severe weather events supposedly caused by “climate change . News Busters. in 2011. we put a tornado photo on the cover and six pages of twister pictures inside—including a large shot of the swath of destruction that an EF4 tornado cut through Tuscaloosa. Scientist Corrects Gullible Reporter: ‘Climate Change’ Not Causing More Tornadoes. National Geographic. There's been no increase in stronger twisters. Even so. population in 1950 was less than half what it is now).That is understandable given that most people are not interested in keeping tallies of the number of hurricanes and tornadoes. and maybe even a slight decrease in EF4s and EF5s.nationalgeographic. we hear from people who believe that liberal media bias isn’t really that big of an issue because most people don’t really trust reporters to tell the truth. it just feels like hurricanes are getting worse. we didn't have Doppler radar. Oklahoma. Alabama. After discussing some of the particulars of the recent tornado that struck Moore. 5-25-2013. yesterday she received some much-needed education during an interview with a scientist working for the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Fortunately for her. 2013 [Robert. But weather patterns can speak to a warming planet.S. that hardly means they lack the power to shape opinion. killing 64 people there and in Birmingham. they are easily susceptible to having their opinion influenced by the media’s love of disaster coverage and also of extremists like Gore making false claims about severe weather phenomena.¶ That suggests we're just spotting more of the weak and short-lived tornadoes than we did back when the country was emptier (the U. Scientists can detect that extreme rain events. because weather is inherently random.¶ There is also no evidence that tornadoes have gotten more damaging. of the University of Colorado and his colleagues.¶ One such person who appears to have been influenced in this way is Los Angeles Times reporter Stacey Lessca. Do you think that more severe storms are becoming the norm. Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast.¶ But as writer Peter Miller made clear in that story. http://news. Lessca shifted her questioning toward environmental orthodoxy (to watch.” Like his earlier debunked claims that global temperatures were increasing. 2013 [Matthew. when you allow for inflation and increases in population and wealth in the United States. http://newsbusters. and do you think that they are directly related to climate change?”¶ Tanamachi answered that this was not the case whatsoever and that people who thought otherwise were . “It Sounds Intuitive: Of Course Global Warming Should Lead to More and More Powerful Tornadoes”. but a closer look at the data shows the increase is only in the weakest category.org/blogs/matthew-sheffield/2013/05/25/scientist-corrects-gullible-reporter-we-are-not-havingmore-extre] Occasionally. it seems. fastforward to the 11:20 mark). this statement is also false. are already happening more often than they used to. President of Dialog New Media.. 2011 becomes the third worst year for tornado damage. But many people are simply unaware of the facts. Jr. Being uninformed about the facts.¶ Neither is the historical record.¶ Tornadoes are different.

a poll conducted by the Pew Research Center found that only 12 percent of Americans were aware that gun violence has decreased even though the drop has been quite significant.¶ But as far as the number of tornadoes. a majority. . By contrast. As far as the number of hurricanes. It is sad reflection on modern society that the former is on his way to becoming a billionaire while only the latter is dismissed as a crank. Both Al Gore and your garden-variety End Times lunatic believe that humans are being punished for their sins with more extreme weather events like hurricanes and tornadoes. This misperception was almost certainly created by the press which has been feverish in its coverage of mass shootings and in its advocacy for anti-gun laws. we haven’t been able to discern an increasing trend. 56 percent. we haven’t been able to discern a really solid increasing trend with that.¶ This is not the only issue where the media have influenced the public into believing something that is false. What we’re finding is that people’s perception is that severe weather has increased. So it’s just a matter of people being aware of those events when they occur and being aware of them almost immediately after they happen. And so it can seem more local to people than it is. As Geoffrey Dickens noted earlier this month.¶ Side note: The idea that human wickedness has some sort of effect on climate has long been a staple of some religious thought and it is yet another way in which modern environmentalism is actually similar to a religion. That perception is largely based on media presentation and that an event like the Moore tornado is now broadcast worldwide within moments of its occurence. believed incorrectly that gun violence had increased.Gonzaga Debate Institute 138 Warming Core likely being influenced by the media’s continual reporting on weather events:¶ Well the statistics don’t bear that assertion out.

Berkeley. 9-6-2010 “Climate Change Not Link To African War” . http://jpr. says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. an economist at the University of California.com/content/49/1/113. and counters that Buhaug has cherry-picked his data sets to support his hypothesis. “Climate variability." says Burke." says Buhaug. "If they accuse me of highlighting data sets in favour of my hypothesis. but it does offer a stark warning about trying to use overly simplistic notions of cause and effect to advocate for such actions.full] Whether increasing local or regional climate variability due to large-scale.D. but in only 3 of them the death toll exceeds 1. Center for Comparative and International Studies. in a 2003 report for the Pentagon on the national-security implications of climate change. prepared for the UK government in 2006. agrees Roger Pielke.451. 2012 *Vally. Marshall Burke. Statistic and Geographer.com/news/2010/100906/full/news. [Burke et al] may code it as three different wars. it is not surprising that a meaningful correlation with climate is hard to pin down. both among policymakers and in ." Buhaug adds.000 fatalities from intra-national conflict. and by their narrow definition of 'civil war' as any year that saw more than 1. The link between climate and civil war has been mooted several times before — for example. He does not do a credible job of controlling for other things beyond climate that might be going on.nature. human-induced changes in the global atmosphere is associated with an increased risk of violent conflict remains contested. we definitely do not agree with Halvard on this. "The climate signals are small in the context of the broader social factors. a political scientist with the Peace Research Institute Oslo in Norway. and civil conflict”. "This does not at all diminish the importance of responding to climate change. They found that the likelihood of armed conflict across the continent rose by around 50% in unusually warm years during 1981-20022. "Although we have enjoyed discussing it with him. he finds virtually no correlation between climate-change indicators such as temperature and rainfall variability and the frequency of civil wars over the past 50 years in subSaharan Africa — arguably the part of the world that is socially and environmentally most vulnerable to climate change. and in the United Nations' post-conflict environmental assessment of Sudan in 2007. robust cause-and-effect relationships between changes in climate and societal outcomes. Climate Change Doesn’t Cause War. reported a strong historical relationship between temperature and the incidence of civil war. not environmental." "You'd really like to apply as many complementary definitions as possible before proclaiming a robust correlation with climate change. director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany." It is extremely difficult to identify simple. http://www. [but] basically we think he's made some serious econometric mistakes that undermine his results. then this applies tenfold more to their own paper. says Buhaug: "If a conflict lasts for 10 years.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 139 AT: Wars Warming Is Empirically Proven To Not Cause Wars Schiemeier. Data-set discord The two rival groups are now disputing the validity of each other's findings. Given the many causes of unrest. Burke maintains that his findings are robust. PH. In research published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences1.sagepub.2010. a political scientist and climate policy expert at the University of Colorado in Boulder.Model Proves Koubi. Buhaug says that Burke's study may have been skewed by the choice of climate data sets. The analysis challenges a study published last year that claimed to have found a causal connection between climate warming and civil violence in Africa. economic growth." Pielke says. and colleagues. 2010 [Quirin. which suggested that climate change was an aggravating factor in the Darfur conflict. Projected future warming threatens to offset the positive effects of democratization and eradicating poverty in Africa.html] Halvard Buhaug. The definition is at odds with conventional measures of civil war in the academic literature. "Even if the data and methods were up to the task — which they aren't — the 'causal noise' would be too loud to discern the currently still weak climate signals in civil wars. in the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. they warned.000." The debate has much wider implications for policy-makers. "The primary causes of civil war are political. "There are legitimate disagreements about which data to use." Buhaug disagrees vigorously.

And while temperatures have been rising steadily in Africa during the past fifteen years.org/2011/11/28/steven-pinker-resource-scarcity-doesnt-cause-wars/] A 2007 New York Times op-ed warned. Idean Salehyan.¶ Pressures on access to land and water can certainly cause local skirmishes. Ole Theisen. Hunger and resource shortages are tragically common in sub-Saharan countries such as Malawi. we conceptualize this nexus in terms of a two-stage process in which climatic variability affects the probability of violent intrastate conflict via climate effects on economic growth. (Severe land degradation did have a small effect. not subsistence farmers. primarily because it takes into account the adaptation of economic activity to persistent climatic changes.¶ In a regression analysis on armed conflicts from 1980 to 1992. politically unstable. further research is required before we can move towards closure of the debate.”¶ Once again it seems to me that the appropriate response is “maybe. In particular. floods. . he concluded. populous. and where these effects may be contingent on political system characteristics. the Sudanese government finds it convenient to blame violence in Darfur on desertification. “Climate stress may well represent a challenge to international security just as dangerous–and more intractable–than the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War or the proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue states today.” Though climate change can cause plenty of misery… it will not necessarily lead to armed conflict. and Tanzania. climate change is a threat to international security. does not affect violent intrastate conflict through economic growth. water shortages. in the absence of appropriate indicators for adaptation it remains difficult to estimate the effect of climatic variability on economic performance and hence on the probability of violent conflict.) Reviewing analyses that examined a large number (N) of countries rather than cherry-picking one or toe. and that depends more on the influence of bad governments. but a genuine war requires that hostile forces be organized and armed. it would be very useful to improve on existing indicators of climatic variability.globalwarming. While our empirical results provide no support for the climate change–economic growth–conflict pathway. Certainly any connection to terrorism is in the imagination of the terror warriors: terrorists tend to be underemployed lower-middle-class men. civil wars and war deaths have been falling. such as Halvard Buhaug. are skeptical of the popular idea that people fight wars over scarce resources. resource wars are far from inevitable. and Nils Gleditsch. even in a climate-changed world. Our results suggest that climate variability. or mild land degradation. Zambia. Since the state of the environment is at most one ingredient in a mixture that depends far more on political and social organization. The political scientists who track war and peace. adaptation to climate variability. and relevant (from the viewpoint of violent conflict) economic performance. and that better governance can mitigate the human costs of environmental damage.” a group of military officers wrote that “climate change will provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror. and militant ideologies than on the sheer availability of land and water. and tsunamis (such as the disastrous one in the Indian Ocean in 2004) do not generally lead to conflict. according to the citation. but maybe not. closed economies. For instance. Theisen found that conflict was more likely if a country was poor. but not if it had suffered from droughts. Second. This finding is important because the causal pathway leading from climate variability via (deteriorating) economic growth to conflict is a key part of most theoretical models of the climate–conflict nexus.Gonzaga Debate Institute 140 Warming Core academic circles. 28-11-2011. because of the relationship between resource scarcity and violent internal conflict. measured as deviations in temperature and precipitation from their past. The American dust bowl in the 1930s. but wars involving them are not. droughts. 2011 [David. as it does in developed democracies.”¶ Salehyan adds that relatively inexpensive advances in water use and agricultural practices in the developing world can yield massive increases in productivity with a constant or even shrinking amount of land.” That same year Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their call to action against global warming because. “Those who foresee doom. to take another example. First. Steven Pinker: Resource Scarcity Doesn’t Cause Wars. caused plenty of deprivation but no civil war. Calling global warming “a force multiplier for instability. and abundant in oil. As for genocide. have very little support from the large-N literature. distracting the world from its own role in tolerating or encouraging the ethnic cleansing. In this article we contribute in two ways to the existing literature on the climate change–conflict nexus. Hurricanes. we employ a measure of climatic variability that has advantages over those used in the existing literature. http://www. A rising fear lifts all the boats. ¶ Resource Wars Are Far From Inevitable Bier. long-run levels (a 30-year moving average).

tive action school.lems. and biodiversity conservation. conflict frequently motivates cooperation. ozone depletion. minerals. Similarly. 2011 [Shlomi. To that Solve Extent. which may merely motivate political conflicts such as climate change. they may also be the impetus for coop. interstate cooperation becomes difficult to achieve since it may be too costly to manage the degradation or there is simply too little of the resource to share (Ostrom 2001). the volume investigates the notion that as scarcity and degradation worsen. and in line with the collec. transboundary air pollution. and fisheries. low levels of scarcity may depress cooperation as there is less urgency to organize and coordinate. in other words.eration. we provide a different perspective than that of the resource wars argument made with regard to particular natural resources such as oil. “Beyond Resource Wars”.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 141 Resource Scarcity Solves Relations and Conflict Dinar.edu/books/beyond-resource-wars] This volume asserts that while resource scarcity and environmental degradation may well constitute sources of conflict. the volume systematically explores the intricacies and nuances of this scarcity and degradation contention across a set of additional resources and environmental prob. political dispute. Associate Professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Florida International University. Generally. Yet beyond this claim. . In particular. and resource scarcity and environmental degradation are important elements of this relationship. the authors in this volume maintain that increasing scarcity and degradation induce cooperation across states.mit. oceans pollution.dation coin. 8-21-2011. Indeed. should matter in explaining the intensity of cooperation. coordination. http://mitpress. and mismanagement between states. While the volume recognizes both sides of the resource scarcity and environmental degra. and negotiation between them. the cooperative relationship is of particular interest and scrutiny. Scarcity and degradation levels. freshwater.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 142 ***Warming Good DAs*** .

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 143 ***Ice Age*** .

They imply that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.¶ A good environmental scare needs two ingredients. so the scare goes. The rest is guesswork.¶ Global warming has the perfect culprit: naughty.¶ What we can say. when temperatures.¶ THERE are two facts in the scare. wrote:¶ The ice age cometh? Last week's big chill was a reminder that the Earth's climate can change at any time . Our time is up. but not before. First.¶ Greenland. the northern hemisphere has gone through a regular cycle of ice ages: 90. in International Wildlife.¶ The last ice age ended about 10.¶ If the global warming scare has little foundation in fact. and then rose to the "Medieval Climate Optimum" in the years 600 to 1100.000 years ago. when the Thames froze over. Replace the icicles hanging from oranges in California with melting glaciers on Mt Everest. “The Ice Age Cometh”. And they have been rising slowly ever since. who like to play on Western guilt about consumerism to make us believe in global warming. Time magazine. air temperatures have been measured with extreme accuracy.. The Cooling. is that if Europe heats up by 1°C it would do it a power of good. To convert from the first scare to the second. Temperatures rose to the "Holocene Maximum" of about 5000 years ago when it was about l.¶ What facts have emerged to make this dramatic reversal? Well. ocean currents. but you wont hear it from the green groups. The next ice age is due. It has happened in the past with catastrophic effect.¶ The facts have emerged. Past temperatures for the Atlantic Ocean have been found by looking at dead marine life. (Without it. with immense danger for mankind and the natural systems that sustain it. The most reliable measurements show no change whatsoever in global temperatures in the past 20 years. and it is no surprise they have made one wrong prediction after another.3C heating over the past 100 years is caused by man's activities or part of a natural cycle. Temperature changes are a fact of nature. The first is impending catastrophe. http://www. which warm the local environment.ourcivilisation. which has made itself very rich by burning a lot of fossil fuels (coal. There were vineyards in the south of England. We were going to freeze but now we are going to fry. the coldest weather recorded. although they are still much lower than 1000 years ago. it is true that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas one which traps heat on Earth. the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide — all of these and a thousand other factors operating with small differences over vast masses and distances make it practically impossible for us to make predictions about long-term climate patterns. Or it may have already started.000 years with ice: 10.¶ But now. Or tens of years. (Lowe Ponte. It is probably to do with the arrangement of northern land masses and the path of the Gulf Stream. all you have to do is substitute "the coldest weather recorded" with "the warmest weather recorded". the scare is about global warming. from research into past ice ages.. the supreme authority on matters environmental.¶ The global warmers said the most accurate measure of climate change would be air temperatures. accessed 7/12/13. and probably world war.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 144 1NC – Ice Age DA An ice age is coming and will cause extinction.htm.only maintaining emissions can solve Kenny 2 (Andrew. which suggests the sun might be the reason for the warming. there are accurate methods of measuring sea temperatures going back much further. the ice age fails and global warming is gloriously successful. incidentally. 7/14/02.¶ The Earth's climate is immensely complicated. the ice-age scare is only too solidly founded. world chaos. a rapid shift in the world's climate towards an icy apocalypse. If you could persuade people that President Bush or the oil companies were responsible for the asteroids. JA) A new ice age is due now . is releasing a lot of carbon dioxide. increased carbon dioxide makes plants grow more quickly.¶ One of the real threats to mankind is the danger of collision with a large asteroid. it is true that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising. we should give tax relief to coal power stations and factories for every tonne of carbon dioxide they release. former editor of New Scientist. This was the frightening message broadcast to us by environmentalists in the recent past. but we do not know.000 years ago. with sonorous editorials in all the papers.000 years ago. Here are some of their prophecies. Changes in phase from ice to water to vapour. The reason is that you cannot find anyone suitable to blame for them. The second is a suitable culprit to blame. oil and gas). Thus we are able to know temperatures in the Atlantic and northern Europe going back thousands of years. The Sunday Mail. The ratio of other isotopes tells you the temperature then. is a bad match against rising carbon dioxide but a good one against solar activity. The isotope ratio of carbon-14 in their skeletons tells you when they lived.¶ THE Earth's climate is changing in a dramatic way.com/aginatur/iceage. If it continues. winds. They make nonsense of the global warming scare. In the second case. so improving crops and forests. Then temperatures dropped to "The Little Ice Age" in the 1600s. July 1975)¶ The cooling has already killed thousands of people in poor nations.000 years without.¶ We do not know what causes the ice ages. industrialised. the next one — for there will be a next one — could start tens of thousands of years from now.¶ Surface temperatures are much less reliable since the recording stations are often encroached on by expanding cities. convection.. But there are no conferences. and no strong measures are taken to deal with it.5°C higher than now.. We can see this from records of 1000 years ago. I guarantee there would be a billion-dollar campaign to "raise awareness" about the asteroid danger. dropped in the time of Christ. This was a golden age for northern European agriculture and led to the rise of Viking civilisation.¶ However. The curve most often used by the global warmers is one showing surface temperatures rising by about half a degree in the past 100 years. would be a certain calamity. gatherings. protests and newspaper headlines about asteroid impacts. 1976)¶ As recently as January 1994. It is not the destruction itself of Sodom and Gomorrah that makes the story so appealing but the fact that they were destroyed because they were so sinful. in recent years and months. This.¶ The scare about global cooling was always the same: unprecedented low temperatures. What has changed is the perception that global warming makes a better scare than the coming ice age. unlike global warming. and the shivering armadillos with sweltering polar bears. Moreover. which is dangerously heating up the world. Western society. The computer models that the global warmers now use are ludicrously oversimplified.)¶ However. was then a habitable Viking colony. . changes in the sun: the complicated shapes of the land masses. the cooling will cause world famine. and it will probably happen again. though. consuming. resolutions.¶ Even the White House is making cautionary sounds about warming. a new ice age. were about 1°C higher than now. none really.¶ What caused these ups and downs of temperature? We do not know. far beyond our present powers of understanding and the calculating powers of modern computers. advanced. the Earth would be 'too cold for' life. unusual floods and storms. (The curve. and we have no idea if the claimed 0. They show no warming whatsoever.¶ We are now in a rather cool period. and this could all come about by the year 2000.) Second. For the past two million years.¶ It may be that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are actually warding off the ice age. cloud formation. and perhaps make such predictions inherently impossible. now a frozen wasteland. (Nigel Calder. The last ice age ended 10. For the past 20 years or more. The last (ice age) ended 10. In this case.

while California and the Great Plains .¶ Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials.¶ All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain. so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient. Once the glaciation starts. Scandinavia. but global cooling will decrease it. especially in the US and Canada.spaceweather. where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. That is inevitably approaching. the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. Global warming would increase agricultural output.¶ It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year.html. Humanity and food production will be forced closer to the equator. Even Ohio and Indiana may gradually be encased in mile-thick ice. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.¶ By then.¶ There is also another possibility. an incomprehensible stretch of time. began 11. ‘8 (Phil. ¶ Northern winters became ferocious: in particular. and Argentina. it must be noted that next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. The most recent minimum was in March last year. with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum. similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. If the temperature does not soon recover. we will have to conclude that global warming is over.com. the Christy group at the University of Alabama. distinguished research professor at George Mason and Avery.000 years. and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.¶ The bleak truth is that. as huge ice sheets expand in Canada. and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Russia.500 Years”. geophysicist and astronautical engineer. though it may still be thousands of years away. pending what happens in the next few years. an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.¶ It didn't happen. When it comes. averaging 11 years.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 145 An ice age is coming and will cause extinction. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. No. it will last 1000 centuries.¶ Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees.¶ There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold.23583376-7583.news. JA) THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www. “Sorry to ruin the fun. called the Holocene. the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots. remote but much more serious. the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade. and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.24.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern. ¶ The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. April 23th 2008.¶ The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history.¶ This is where SOHO comes in.¶ The coming Ice Age outweighs any impacts of Warming Singer. with the high latitudes getting up to 40 degrees colder. Page 13. but an ice age cometh. “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1. If it continued for 20 years. The Australian.theaustralian.5km of ice.¶ It is time to put aside the global warming dogma.¶ That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No. was supposed to start soon after that. Another little spot appeared this Monday. ‘7 (Fred.¶ There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do . Pray that there will be many more. JA The climate event that deserves real concern is the next Big Ice Age. director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute. and millions more will die from cold-related diseases. vanishing under the ice.¶ Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate).000 years ago. temperatures may plummet 15 degrees Celsius. under normal conditions.au/story/0.¶ The another 1000 years. typically lasting less than 10. the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.need to keep up emissions to survive Chapman. accessed 7/12/2013. severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet. so the ice is overdue. located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days . most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1. at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length.¶ What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.00. most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist.” http://www.25197. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas.7C in 2007. The new cycle. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years.com. the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770. and soon. On the other hand.

even though they've survived such cold before-because this time there will be more humans competing for the ice-free land. That's when human knowledge and high-tech farming will be truly needed. Wildlife species will be extremely challenged. Getting enough food for eight or nine billion people from the relatively small amount of arable land left unfrozen will be a potentially desperate effort.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core could suffer century-long drought. none of the scary scenarios posited by today's global warming advocates took place during the Earth's past warm periods . In contrast. 146 both night and day . Keeping warm will become the critical issue. fertile plains of Alberta and the Ukraine will become sub-Arctic wastes. The broad.

so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.com/opinion/columnists/story.¶ Last month. Oleg Sorokhtin.¶ And it's not just anecdotal evidence that is piling up against the climate-change dogma..two prominent climate modellers -."¶ He is not alone. it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year.solar science proves Svensmark. http://wattsupwiththat.nationalpost. pre-carbon footprint days of 1950.¶ The ice is back.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 147 2NC – UQ – Ice Age Coming An ice age is coming National Post ‘8 (February 25th 2008. a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa. then it is at least fair game to use this winter's weather stories to wonder whether the alarmist are being a tad premature. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Prof. too. the average temperature in January "was -0. and trade ceased. Toronto received 70 cm of snow. An ice age is cooling due to lower sun activity.¶ Gilles Langis. pre-Kyoto. so one winter does not a climate make.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV.¶ According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation. “Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age. plague and war were widespread.‘9 (Henrik. but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers.¶ But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early.¶ The U. JA) . assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council. “Svensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”. Famine.¶ And remember the Arctic Sea ice? The ice we were told so hysterically last fall had melted to its "lowest levels on record? Never mind that those records only date back as far as 1972 and that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.¶ In just the first two weeks of February. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average.¶ There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses.S. says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered. is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966. smashing the record of 66. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again)." says Prof. Whatsupwiththat.” http://www.¶ OK.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-acooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/. According to the NCDC. the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.the computer models that show polar icemelt cooling the oceans. the National Post. director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at DTU Space.¶ The last time the sun was this inactive.¶ "We missed what was right in front of our eyes. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades. stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong. PhD.com. accessed 7/12/13. Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850.¶ But when Profs. accessed 7/12/13. a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. JA) Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia. shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket.¶ It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again.html?id=d7c7fcce-d248-4e97-ab72-1adbdbb1d0d0. Harbours froze. Russell. so did rivers. who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun."¶ China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. 9/10/09.

” Everything indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation..Click for larger image.¶ You may wonder why the international climate panel IPCC does not believe that the Sun’s changing activity affects the climate. this natural mechanism may be responsible for a large part of global warming seen then. China’s population doubled in this period. since it began to wane in the mid-1990s. its magnetic field is better at shielding us against the cosmic rays coming from outer space.¶ Then came the criticism that the mechanism we found in the laboratory could not work in the real atmosphere. So when Nigel Calder and I updated our book The Chilling Stars. Why? Let’s take a closer look. But the panel has closed its eyes to another. over the last few years.¶ It turns out that the Sun itself performs what might be called natural experiments.¶ So we have watched the Sun’s magnetic activity with increasing concern. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10. which is normal in science. there is a link. after many years of work. It does not favour their idea that the 20th century temperature rise was mainly due to human emissions of CO2. Yet it turns out that.¶ That also explains why most climate scientists try to ignore this possibility. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures. we completed experiments at DTU Space that demonstrated the existence of a physical mechanism.¶ Solar activity has always varied.000 years in a sleeping mode. which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic activity. and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age. we wrote a little provocatively that “we are .¶ Satellite measurements have shown that the variations of solar radiation are too small to explain climate change. By regulating the Earth’s cloud cover.¶ Ever since we put forward our theory in 1996. But in 2006. “It is likely that the current year’s number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years. On the whole it was a good time. 1658 during the Northern Wars where Swedish king Karl X Gustav led the Swedish army from Jutland across the ice of the Little Belt and the Great Belt to reach Zealand (Danish: Sjælland). Around the year 1000. As the Sun’s magnetism doubled in strength during the 20th century. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice. Low solar activity and poorer shielding against cosmic rays result in increased cloud cover and hence a cooling. We have just rejected that criticism emphatically. with a cooling Earth the result. In 1996 we discovered a surprising influence of the Sun – its impact on Earth’s cloud cover. the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. In this cold time.¶ But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. The reason is that it considers only changes in solar radiation. and therefore had no practical significance. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity.¶ First it was said that a link between clouds and solar activity could not be correct." . Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. and led to the Treaty of Roskilde later that year.¶ "The March across the Belts was a campaign between January 30 and February 8. then the contribution by CO2 must necessarily be smaller. it has been subjected to very sharp criticism. Giant solar eruptions can cause the cosmic ray intensity on earth to dive suddenly over a few days. which are the seeds for cloud formation. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. The risky but vastly successful crossing was a crushing blow to Denmark. we had a period of very high solar activity. before they reach our planet.. which resulted in poorly nourished populations. the Sun can turn the temperature up and down. which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. the cosmic rays.¶ The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger. been almost free of sunspots. help to form clouds. because no physical mechanism was known. and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age.Gonzaga Debate Institute 148 Warming Core The star that keeps us alive has. If the Sun provoked a significant part of warming in the 20th Century. cloud cover can fall by about 4 per cent. Here is a very large effect – indeed so great that in popular terms the Earth’s clouds originate in space.¶ It’s important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event.¶ When the Sun is active. High-energy accelerated particles coming from exploded stars.¶ If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which represents the current consensus on climate change.¶ That the Sun might now fall asleep in a deep minimum was suggested by solar scientists at a meeting in Kiruna in Sweden two years ago. That would be the simplest way for the Sun to change the climate – a bit like turning up and down the brightness of a light bulb. The cosmic rays help to form aerosols. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown – a matter of great importance for a good harvest. And the amount of liquid water in cloud droplets is reduced by almost 7 per cent. In the days following an eruption. much more powerful way for the Sun to affect Earth’s climate. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again.000 years . High solar activity means fewer clouds and and a warmer world. For example.. almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years. Last week *4 September 2009+ the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported. and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. In fact the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10. all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared.

The New York Times. not in solar activity. which is part-funded by the Natural Environment Research Council. carbon dioxide.000 years as the pattern of Earth's orbit alters over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps.'¶ Ice ages occur around every 100. confirms earlier ideas of David Archer of the University of Chicago. but every major . accessed 7/12/13. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descent into an ice age. journalist for the New York Times.sciencedaily. who first estimated the impact rising CO2 levels would have on the timing of the next ice age.¶ Dr Tyrrell's team used a mathematical model to study what would happen to marine chemistry in a world with ever-increasing supplies of the greenhouse gas.¶ Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of fossil fuels. His explanation was a natural change in the North Atlantic circulation.¶ The world's oceans are absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere but in doing so they are becoming more acidic. plunging the Earth into an ice age.htm.com. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates.com/releases/2007/08/070829193436. Emissions can prevent an ice age – we must continue to burn fossil fuels Science Daily. May 15th 2007. http://www. http://www. where major cities lie far to the north.¶ Computer modelling in 2004 by a then oceanography undergraduate student at the University. adding even more carbon to the oceans. even as the rest of the world sweltered.¶ Dr Tyrrell said: 'Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to preindustrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (out of total reserves of about 4000 Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped. 2007 (Walter.¶ Arguably. This in turn is dissolving the calcium carbonate in the shells produced by surface-dwelling marine organisms. ‘7 (Aug. The outcome is elevated carbon dioxide for far longer than previously assumed. Burning all recoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages. Southampton. 2007. this work demonstrates the most far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary processes yet suggested for human activity. Britain. JA) Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. JA) Mainstream climatologists who have feared that global warming could have the paradoxical effect of cooling northwestern Europe or even plunging it into a small ice age have stopped worrying about that particular disaster. But no matter how you interpret them. was that the North Atlantic Current. but the suffering would be greater in Europe. Not only is northern Europe warming. “Scientists Back Off Theory of a Colder Europe in a Warming World”. we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result. Stephanie Castle. accessed 7/12/2013. Mojib Latif from the University of Kiel argued at the recent UN World Climate Conference in Geneva that the cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years.Gonzaga Debate Institute 149 Warming Core advising our friends to enjoy global warming while it lasts. That is the implication of recent work by Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre. Warming can’t trigger another Ice Age – prefer our science over their unwarranted fear-mongering Gibbs. an extension of the Gulf Stream that cuts northeast across the Atlantic Ocean to bathe the high latitudes of Europe with warmish equatorial water.¶ The idea.html?pagewanted=1&n=Top/News/Science/Topics/%20En vironment&_r=2%3E. Denmark and Norway could in theory take on Arctic aspects that only a Greenlander could love. although it retains a vivid hold on the public imagination. natural variations in climate are making a comeback. levels of atmospheric CO2 are also important. 30.”¶ In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning.¶ Without that warm-water current. could shut down in a greenhouse world. northern France. Americans on the Eastern Seaboard would most likely feel a chill.com/2007/05/15/science/earth/15cold. They subsequently developed a theoretical analysis to validate the plausibility of the phenomenon. ScienceDaily. “Next Ice Age Delayed By Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels”. the Low Countries.¶ All that has now been removed from the forecast.nytimes.¶ The work. which held climate theorists in its icy grip for years. first interested Dr Tyrrell and colleague Professor John Shepherd in the problem.

7/12/13.” Yet. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. “The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. These large animals had been on earth for many millions of years and had survived many previous threats to their existence. accessed 7/12/13. thanks to improved modeling and ocean measurements.¶ At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But in the current cycle. 2013 states. a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Norway. Bush. Without sufficient plants to eat. General Counsel for the American Civil Rights Union. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes. I served in the White House Office of Policy Development under President Reagan. The reduction in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere occurred over thousands of years. The panel did say that the gradual melting of the Greenland ice sheet along with increased precipitation in the far north were likely to weaken the North Atlantic Current by 25 percent through 2100. still no warming during that time. sunspot activity has collapsed. most of the large animals could not survive .com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-ishere/. “Ice Age Extinction: Cause and Human Consequences”. and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then. Forbes. even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. Global Cooling Is Here”. The Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current are more stable than previously thought.” said Susan Solomon. 5/26/13 (Peter. Sunspots prove.¶ “The concern had previously been that we were close to a threshold where the Atlantic circulation system would stop. As The Economist magazine reported in March. and the dying off of the plants was a very gradual process. Senior Advisor for Entitlement Reform and Budget Policy at the National Tax Limitation Foundation. with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. An Ice Age causes extinction Snook. http://www. author. ‘7 (Jim. Yet in a geologically short period of time they became extinct. I am a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School. There was not enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for most plants in the higher latitude and low altitude areas. which is the primary reason that global temperatures warmed during this period. But the panel added that any cooling effect in Europe would be overwhelmed by a general warming of the atmosphere. “We now believe we are much farther from that threshold. a professor at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Bergen.Gonzaga Debate Institute 150 Warming Core climate model produced by scientists worldwide in recent years has also shown that the warming will almost certainly continue. “To the Horror of Global Warming Alarmists. JA) The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s. the sun could be on the threshold of a .global cooling is coming Ferrara. Director of Entitlement and Budget Policy for the Heartland Institute.forbes. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750. and as Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States under President George H.¶ “The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe. and the author most recently of America's Ticking Bankruptcy Bomb. But that warming ended 15 years ago.”¶ After consulting 23 climate models. the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in February it was “very unlikely” that the crucial flow of warm water to Europe would stall in this century. a warming that the panel said was under way as a result of rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles. if not actually cooled.com.” said Helge Drange. NASA’s Science News report for January 8. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle.W.¶ “Indeed. after flattening out over the previous 20 years. JA) This study indicates that low atmospheric carbon dioxide was the major cause of the large animal extinction near the end of the last ice age. and Senior Fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis. We will now look at the sequence of events involved in extinction.

so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well.¶ Global warming has the perfect culprit: naughty. Time magazine. and the shivering armadillos with sweltering polar bears. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. in recent years and months.” In other words. protests and newspaper headlines about asteroid impacts. It is not the destruction itself of Sodom and Gomorrah that makes the story so appealing but the fact that they were destroyed because they were so sinful. JA) A new ice age is due now . I guarantee there would be a billion-dollar campaign to "raise awareness" about the asteroid danger. and it will probably happen again. In this respect. all you have to do is substitute "the coldest weather recorded" with "the warmest weather recorded". The most reliable measurements show no change whatsoever in global temperatures in the past 20 years.¶ A good environmental scare needs two ingredients. We were going to freeze but now we are going to fry.Petersburg. there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. may give way to global cooling. the cooling will cause world famine. resolutions. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives. The Voice of Russia reported on April 22. Replace the icicles hanging from oranges in California with melting glaciers on Mt Everest. 7/14/02. If it continues.¶ Even the White House is making cautionary sounds about warming. solar activity is waning. is releasing a lot of carbon dioxide.”¶ That is even more significant because NASA’s climate science has been controlled for years by global warming hysteric James Hansen. consuming.. the next one — for there will be a next one — could start tens of thousands of years from now. oil and gas). But there are no conferences. (Lowe Ponte. unusual floods and storms.only maintaining emissions can solve Kenny 2 (Andrew. The first is impending catastrophe. The reason is that you cannot find anyone suitable to blame for them. which has made itself very rich by burning a lot of fossil fuels (coal. Or it may have already started. This was the frightening message broadcast to us by environmentalists in the recent past. in International Wildlife. so the scare goes. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. from research into past ice ages. “The Ice Age Cometh”.000 years ago. solar activity is on the decrease.¶ One of the real threats to mankind is the danger of collision with a large asteroid.com/aginatur/iceage.. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. July 1975)¶ The cooling has already killed thousands of people in poor nations.ourcivilisation. we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. What has changed is the perception that global warming makes a better scare than the coming ice age. Or tens of years. another Little Ice Age. advanced. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. former editor of New Scientist.¶ What facts have emerged to make this dramatic reversal? Well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. who recently announced his retirement. wrote:¶ The ice age cometh? Last week's big chill was a reminder that the Earth's climate can change at any time . The Cooling. world chaos. which is dangerously heating up the . According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St. In the second case. but you wont hear it from the green groups. To convert from the first scare to the second. gatherings.htm. If you could persuade people that President Bush or the oil companies were responsible for the asteroids. the coldest weather recorded. 2013. The second is a suitable culprit to blame.¶ But this same concern is increasingly being echoed worldwide. the scare is about global warming. ¶ But now. industrialised.¶ The facts have emerged. Western society.¶ “Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years. accessed 7/12/13.¶ The scare about global cooling was always the same: unprecedented low temperatures. none really. magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. and this could all come about by the year 2000.¶ THE Earth's climate is changing in a dramatic way. and probably world war. It has happened in the past with catastrophic effect.Gonzaga Debate Institute 151 Warming Core mini-Maunder event right now.. (Nigel Calder. Moreover. the supreme authority on matters environmental. and no strong measures are taken to deal with it. who like to play on Western guilt about consumerism to make us believe in global warming. with sonorous editorials in all the papers. the ice age fails and global warming is gloriously successful. with immense danger for mankind and the natural systems that sustain it. The last (ice age) ended 10. a rapid shift in the world's climate towards an icy apocalypse. The Sunday Mail. They imply that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind. This. “Evidently. An ice age is coming and will cause extinction. http://www.. 1976)¶ As recently as January 1994. Here are some of their prophecies.”¶ That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying.

¶ If the global warming scare has little foundation in fact. it is true that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising.000 years with ice: 10.¶ The last ice age ended about 10.000 years ago. This was a golden age for northern European agriculture and led to the rise of Viking civilisation. were about 1°C higher than now. The computer models that the global warmers now use are ludicrously oversimplified. “Sorry to ruin the fun. the northern hemisphere has gone through a regular cycle of ice ages: 90.” http://www. April 23th 2008. Temperatures rose to the "Holocene Maximum" of about 5000 years ago when it was about l. The ratio of other isotopes tells you the temperature then. unlike global warming. Temperature changes are a fact of nature. the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade. the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide — all of these and a thousand other factors operating with small differences over vast masses and distances make it practically impossible for us to make predictions about long-term climate patterns.25197.) Second. The Australian. and then rose to the "Medieval Climate Optimum" in the years 600 to 1100.html. (Without it. but an ice age cometh.com. Thus we are able to know temperatures in the Atlantic and northern Europe going back thousands of years. cloud formation. it is true that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas one which traps heat on Earth. winds. located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity. Our time is up. and it is no surprise they have made one wrong prediction after another. convection. The curve most often used by the global warmers is one showing surface temperatures rising by about half a degree in the past 100 years. we should give tax relief to coal power stations and factories for every tonne of carbon dioxide they release.¶ The global warmers said the most accurate measure of climate change would be air temperatures. Moreover.¶ We do not know what causes the ice ages. geophysicist and astronautical engineer.)¶ However. They show no warming whatsoever. and we have no idea if the claimed 0. accessed 7/12/2013. The next ice age is due. JA) THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www. but not before. now a frozen wasteland. (The curve. For the past two million years. Past temperatures for the Atlantic Ocean have been found by looking at dead marine life. ‘8 (Phil. They make nonsense of the global warming scare. dropped in the time of Christ.¶ Surface temperatures are much less reliable since the recording stations are often encroached on by expanding cities. although they are still much lower than 1000 years ago.theaustralian. is a bad match against rising carbon dioxide but a good one against solar activity. Changes in phase from ice to water to vapour.¶ We are now in a rather cool period.¶ What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot. The rest is guesswork. and perhaps make such predictions inherently impossible. was then a habitable Viking colony.5°C higher than now. the Earth would be 'too cold for' life.¶ What we can say. And they have been rising slowly ever since. For the past 20 years or more. is that if Europe heats up by 1°C it would do it a power of good.spaceweather. and now the . a new ice age. Then temperatures dropped to "The Little Ice Age" in the 1600s. where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. which suggests the sun might be the reason for the warming. so improving crops and forests. despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.news.¶ The Earth's climate is immensely complicated.Gonzaga Debate Institute 152 Warming Core world. but we do not know. In this case. air temperatures have been measured with extreme accuracy.¶ Greenland.¶ It may be that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are actually warding off the ice age. would be a certain calamity.need to keep up emissions to survive Chapman. when the Thames froze over. increased carbon dioxide makes plants grow more quickly. though. First. when temperatures. ocean currents. The isotope ratio of carbon-14 in their skeletons tells you when they lived.¶ THERE are two facts in the scare. There were vineyards in the south of England.000 years ago. incidentally. which warm the local environment.¶ What caused these ups and downs of temperature? We do not know.23583376-7583. It is probably to do with the arrangement of northern land masses and the path of the Gulf Stream.00.¶ However.3C heating over the past 100 years is caused by man's activities or part of a natural cycle.¶ Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming.000 years without. We can see this from records of 1000 years ago. An ice age is coming and will cause extinction. far beyond our present powers of understanding and the calculating powers of modern computers. there are accurate methods of measuring sea temperatures going back much further. The last ice age ended 10. changes in the sun: the complicated shapes of the land masses.au/story/0. the ice-age scare is only too solidly founded.com.

most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.¶ The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history. Even Ohio and Indiana may gradually be encased in mile-thick ice. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. Humanity and food production will be forced closer to the equator.500 Years”. Scandinavia. the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. ‘7 (Fred.7C in 2007. The new cycle. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years. called the Holocene. so the ice is overdue. vanishing under the ice.¶ By then. Another little spot appeared this Monday. an incomprehensible stretch of time. was supposed to start soon after that. and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.5km of ice. averaging 11 years. pending what happens in the next few years. director of the Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute. though it may still be thousands of years away. an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790. “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1.¶ This is where SOHO comes in.¶ Northern winters became ferocious: in particular. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027. it will last 1000 centuries. On the other hand. the Christy group at the University of Alabama.¶ It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year. Once the glaciation starts. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials. we will have to conclude that global warming is over.¶ All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain. temperatures may plummet 15 degrees Celsius. and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0. remote but much more serious. with the high latitudes getting up to 40 degrees colder.000 years. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum.¶ The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length. and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.000 years ago. If the temperature does not soon recover.¶ It didn't happen. Russia.¶ Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate).¶ Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. under normal conditions. as huge ice sheets expand in Canada. so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days . No.¶ There is also another possibility.24. typically lasting less than 10. That is inevitably approaching. both night and day . severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet. especially in the US and Canada. but global cooling will decrease it. Page 13. Getting enough food for . JA The climate event that deserves real concern is the next Big Ice Age.¶ The bleak truth is that.Gonzaga Debate Institute 153 Warming Core global temperature is falling precipitously. it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. and Argentina. most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist. When it comes.¶ There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. Pray that there will be many more. Global warming would increase agricultural output. distinguished research professor at George Mason and Avery. while California and the Great Plains could suffer century-long drought. and soon. with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers. Keeping warm will become the critical issue.¶ It is time to put aside the global warming dogma. ¶ The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern. began 11.¶ There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do .¶ The coming Ice Age outweighs any impacts of Warming Singer. similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.¶ That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No. the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots. at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age. If it continued for 20 years. the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

none of the scary scenarios posited by today's global warming advocates took place during the Earth's past warm periods .Gonzaga Debate Institute 154 Warming Core eight or nine billion people from the relatively small amount of arable land left unfrozen will be a potentially desperate effort. even though they've survived such cold before-because this time there will be more humans competing for the ice-free land. fertile plains of Alberta and the Ukraine will become sub-Arctic wastes. Wildlife species will be extremely challenged. In contrast. That's when human knowledge and high-tech farming will be truly needed. The broad.

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2NC – UQ – Ice Age Coming
Sunspots prove- global cooling is coming Ferrara, Director of Entitlement and Budget Policy for the Heartland Institute, Senior Advisor for Entitlement Reform
and Budget Policy at the National Tax Limitation Foundation, General Counsel for the American Civil Rights Union, and Senior Fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis. I served in the White House Office of Policy Development under President Reagan, and as Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States under President George H.W. Bush. I am a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of America's Ticking Bankruptcy Bomb, 5/26/13 (Peter, 7/12/13, Forbes.com, “To the Horror of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-ishere/, accessed 7/12/13, JA)
The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that global temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then, if not actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. As The Economist magazine reported in March, “The

world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750.” Yet, still no
warming during that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes.¶ At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots

run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA’s Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,¶ “Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion.”¶
That is even more significant because NASA’s climate science has been controlled for years by global warming hysteric James H ansen, who recently announced his retirement.¶ But this same concern is increasingly being echoed worldwide. The Voice of Russia reported on April 22, 2013,¶ “Global

warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo
Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless.”¶ That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying, “Evidently, solar

activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.” In other words, another Little Ice Age.

An ice age is coming National Post ‘8 (February 25th 2008, the National Post, “Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age.”
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=d7c7fcce-d248-4e97-ab72-1adbdbb1d0d0, accessed 7/12/13, JA) Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966.¶ The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. According to the NCDC, the average temperature in January "was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average."¶ China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even
weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them.¶ There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses.¶ In just the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV, pre-Kyoto, pre-carbon footprint days of 1950.¶ And remember the Arctic Sea ice? The ice we were told so hysterically last fall had melted to its "lowest levels on record? Never mind that those records only date back as far as 1972 and that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.¶ The

ice is back.¶ Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year.¶ OK, so one winter does not a
climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.¶ But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks

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early, then it is at least fair game to use this winter's weather stories to wonder whether the alarmist are being a tad premature.¶ And it's not just anecdotal evidence that is piling up against the climate-change dogma.¶ According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar icemelt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.¶ "We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.¶ But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.¶ Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats." ¶ He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon.¶ The

last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.¶ It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the
hysteria of the global warmers, too.

An ice age is cooling due to lower sun activity- solar science proves Svensmark, PhD., director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at DTU Space,‘9
(Henrik, 9/10/09, Whatsupwiththat.com, “Svensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-acooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/, accessed 7/12/13, JA) The star that keeps us alive has, over the last few years, been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic
activity. Last week [4 September 2009] the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported, “It is likely that the current year’s number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years.” Everything

indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation, and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth.¶ If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. Why? Let’s take a closer look.¶ Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown – a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled in this period.¶ But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger.¶ "The March across the Belts was a campaign between January 30 and February 8, 1658 during the Northern Wars where Swedish king Karl X Gustav led the Swedish army from Jutland across the ice of the Little Belt and the Great Belt to reach Zealand (Danish: Sjælland). The risky but vastly successful crossing was a crushing blow to Denmark, and led to the Treaty of Roskilde later that year...." - Click for larger image.¶ It’s important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the

Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age.¶ The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. Yet it turns out that, almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years, there is a link. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10,000 years . In fact
the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10,000 years in a sleeping mode, with a cooling Earth the result.¶ You may wonder why the international climate panel IPCC does not believe that the Sun’s changing activity affects the climate. The reason is that it considers only changes in solar radiation. That would be the simplest way for the Sun to change the climate – a bit like turning up and down the brightness of a light bulb.¶ Satellite

measurements have shown that the variations of solar radiation are too small to explain climate change. But the panel has closed its eyes to another, much more powerful way for the Sun to affect Earth’s climate. In 1996 we discovered a surprising influence of the Sun – its impact on Earth’s
cloud cover. High-energy accelerated particles coming from exploded stars, the cosmic rays, help to form clouds.¶ When the Sun is active, its magnetic field is better at shielding us against the cosmic rays coming from outer space, before they reach our planet. By regulating the Earth’s cloud cover, the Sun can turn the temperature up and down. High solar activity means fewer clouds and and a warmer world. Low solar activity and poorer shielding against cosmic rays result in increased cloud cover and hence a cooling. As the Sun’s magnetism doubled in strength during the 20th century, this natural mechanism may be responsible for a large part of global warming seen then.¶ That also explains why most climate scientists try to ignore this possibility. It does not favour their idea that the 20th century temperature rise was mainly due to human emissions of CO2. If the Sun provoked a significant part of warming in the 20th Century, then the contribution by CO2 must necessarily be smaller.¶ Ever since we put forward our theory in 1996, it has been subjected to very sharp criticism, which is normal in science.¶ First it was said that a link between clouds and solar activity could not be correct, because no physical mechanism was known. But in 2006, after many years of work, we completed experiments at DTU Space that demonstrated the existence of a physical mechanism. The cosmic rays help to form aerosols, which are the seeds for cloud formation.¶ Then came the criticism that the mechanism we found in the laboratory could not work in the real atmosphere, and therefore had no practical significance. We have just rejected that criticism emphatically.¶ It turns out that the Sun itself performs what might be called natural experiments. Giant solar eruptions can cause the cosmic ray intensity on earth to dive suddenly over a few days. In the days following an eruption, cloud cover can fall by about 4 per cent. And the amount of liquid water in cloud droplets is reduced by almost 7 per cent. Here is a very large effect – indeed so great that in popular terms the Earth’s clouds originate in space.¶ So we have watched the Sun’s magnetic activity with increasing concern, since it began to wane in the mid-1990s.¶ That the Sun might now fall asleep in a deep minimum was suggested by solar scientists at a meeting in Kiruna in Sweden two years ago. So when Nigel Calder and I updated our book The

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Chilling Stars, we wrote a little provocatively that “we are advising our friends to enjoy global warming while it lasts.”¶ In fact global warming has stopped and a

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cooling is beginning. Mojib Latif from the University of Kiel argued at the recent UN World Climate Conference in Geneva that the cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years. His explanation was a natural change in the North Atlantic circulation, not in solar activity. But no matter
how you interpret them, natural variations in climate are making a comeback.

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2NC – Links – Emissions Good
Emissions can prevent an ice age – we must continue to burn fossil fuels Science Daily, ‘7
(Aug. 30, 2007, ScienceDaily.com, “Next Ice Age Delayed By Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels”, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070829193436.htm, accessed 7/12/2013, JA) Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil fuels. That is the implication of recent work by
Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton.¶ Arguably, this work demonstrates the most far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary processes yet suggested for human activity.¶ Dr Tyrrell's team used a mathematical model to study what would happen to marine chemistry in a world with ever-increasing supplies of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide.¶ The world's oceans are absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere but in doing so they are becoming more acidic. This in turn is dissolving the calcium carbonate in the shells produced by surface-dwelling marine organisms, adding even more carbon to the oceans. The outcome is elevated carbon dioxide for far longer than previously assumed.¶ Computer modelling in 2004 by a then oceanography undergraduate student at the University, Stephanie Castle, first interested Dr Tyrrell and colleague Professor John Shepherd in the problem. They subsequently developed a theoretical analysis to validate the plausibility of the phenomenon.¶ The Research Council, confirms

work, which is part-funded by the Natural Environment earlier ideas of David Archer of the University of Chicago, who first estimated the impact rising CO2 levels would have on the timing of the next ice age.¶ Dr Tyrrell said: 'Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result.'¶ Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years
as the pattern of Earth's orbit alters over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps, plunging the Earth into an ice age. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descent into an ice age; levels of atmospheric CO2 are also important.¶ Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (out of total reserves of about 4000 Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped. Burning all recoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages.

nytimes. But the panel added that any cooling effect in Europe would be overwhelmed by a general warming of the atmosphere.”¶ After consulting 23 climate models. 2007 (Walter. “We now believe we are much farther from that threshold. which held climate theorists in its icy grip for years. northern France.¶ “The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe. Norway. the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in February it was “very unlikely” that the crucial flow of warm water to Europe would stall in this century.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 159 2NC – AT: Warming = Ice Age Warming can’t trigger another Ice Age – prefer our science over their unwarranted fear-mongering Gibbs. an extension of the Gulf Stream that cuts northeast across the Atlantic Ocean to bathe the high latitudes of Europe with warmish equatorial water. JA) Mainstream climatologists who have feared that global warming could have the paradoxical effect of cooling northwestern Europe or even plunging it into a small ice age have stopped worrying about that particular disaster . the Low Countries.¶ Without that warm-water current. The Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current are more stable than previously thought. Britain.¶ “The concern had previously been that we were close to a threshold where the Atlantic circulation system would stop.com/2007/05/15/science/earth/15cold. although it retains a vivid hold on the public imagination. http://www. could shut down in a greenhouse world. a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 15th 2007.html?pagewanted=1&n=Top/News/Science/Topics/%20En vironment&_r=2%3E. Americans on the Eastern Seaboard would most likely feel a chill. even as the rest of the world sweltered.” said Susan Solomon. a professor at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Bergen. accessed 7/12/13.¶ All that has now been removed from the forecast. but the suffering would be greater in Europe. Denmark and Norway could in theory take on Arctic aspects that only a Greenlander could love. thanks to improved modeling and ocean measurements. Not only is northern Europe warming. where major cities lie far to the north. The New York Times. was that the North Atlantic Current. . a warming that the panel said was under way as a result of rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. The panel did say that the gradual melting of the Greenland ice sheet along with increased precipitation in the far north were likely to weaken the North Atlantic Current by 25 percent through 2100. but every major climate model produced by scientists worldwide in recent years has also shown that the warming will almost certainly continue.” said Helge Drange. “Scientists Back Off Theory of a Colder Europe in a Warming World”.¶ The idea. journalist for the New York Times.

The reduction in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere occurred over thousands of years.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 160 2NC – Impacts – Extinction An Ice Age causes extinction Snook. Without sufficient plants to eat. These large animals had been on earth for many millions of years and had survived many previous threats to their existence. most of the large animals could not survive . . and the dying off of the plants was a very gradual process. ‘7 (Jim. author. Yet in a geologically short period of time they became extinct. JA) This study indicates that low atmospheric carbon dioxide was the major cause of the large animal extinction near the end of the last ice age. There was not enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for most plants in the higher latitude and low altitude areas. We will now look at the sequence of events involved in extinction. “Ice Age Extinction: Cause and Human Consequences”.

is for¶ the terrestrial biosphere.)¶ Also. and we could survive. p.”¶ covered in white from Pole to Pole. Information about snow cover. However. changing into “Snowball Earth. Even with the doubling of¶ CO2¶ atmospheric levels. food-producing greenhouses. even using all our carbon resources. Will¶ mankind survive this? I think yes.Sc.html) Climate change means autumn levels of sea ice have dropped by almost 30 percent since 1979 . and¶ this could be sufficient to govern the climate of our planet. http://www. the Earth already¶ underwent such a disaster. would secure heat and electricity supplies¶ for 5 billion people for about 10. and¶ they would learn how to restore a warm climate for ourselves¶ and for everything that lives on Earth. The present technology of nuclear power. Surely we shall not stop climate cooling by¶ increasing industrial CO2¶ emissions. including the oceans. our livestock.com/Articles%202004/Winter2003-4/global_warming. industrial¶ plants. The only niches of life.21stcenturysciencetech. it does not seem possible that we will ever gain influence over the Sun’s activity. could be¶ heated virtually forever. that such a “passive” solution would not fit the genius of our future descendants. and also¶ zoos and botanical gardens turned into greenhouses. he said. This will encourage regular incursions of cold air from the Arctic into Northern continents . accessed 7/12/13.D. Mikhail Budyko. on a planet that had turned into a¶ gigantic glacier.29 (See also¶ Kondratyev. Our cities. to the very ocean bottom. Warming melts arctic sea ice – that leads to an ice age The Telegraph 2/27/12 (The Telegraph. predicted in 1982 a future drastic¶ CO2¶ deficit in the atmosphere." While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades there has been abnormally large . http://www. I do not think that in the next 50 years we would acquire¶ the knowledge and resources sufficient for governing climate¶ on a global scale. but 10 years later¶ it was discovered that 700 million years ago.increasing heavy snowfall in the UK. together with¶ many other organisms. surface air temperature and humidity was used to generate model simulations for the years 1979-2010. news agency.000 years.60¶ Budyko’s hypothesis is still controversial. Freezing winters ahead due to melting Arctic Sea ice.15¶ However let’s assume that Budyko has been right and that¶ everything. Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw. it is unlikely that permanent doubling of the atmospheric CO2¶ . Europe and east Asia. it would. and the very existence of man’s intellect. based on the nuclear fission of uranium and thorium. 2004 (Zbigniew. At the same time. Reference 59. Determine Climate. I think. “Solar Cycles. M.¶ the stock of hydrogen in the ocean for future fusion-based¶ reactors would suffice for 6 billion years. and claimed that one of the next¶ Ice Age periods could result in a freezing of the entire surface of¶ the Earth.uk/earth/earthnews/9109106/Freezing-winters-ahead-due-to-melting-Arctic-Sea-ice. CBC) Will mankind be able to protect the biosphere against the¶ next returning Ice Age? It depends on how much time we still¶ have. Dr Jiping Liu and colleagues studied the extensive retreat of the ice in the summer and its slow recovery focusing on the impacts of this phenomenon on weather in the Northern Hemisphere. 27 Feb 2012.but this is likely to trigger more frequent cold snaps such as those that brought blizzards to the UK earlier this month.D. D. sea level pressure.pdf. winter 2004. Ph.¶ would survive on the active volcano edges. Not CO2. The researchers say dramatic loss of ice may alter atmospheric circulation patterns and weaken the westerly winds that blow across the North Atlantic Ocean from Canada to Europe.. the increase in global surface air temperature would be trifling. I think that in the next¶ centuries we shall learn to control sea currents and clouds. will be frozen. 64.” 21st Century Science and Technology.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 161 AFF – 2AC – Ice Age DA No impact – Enough resources to survive an ice age Jaworowski.co. however. Dr Liu said: "The results of this study add to an increasing body of both observational and modeling evidence that indicates diminishing Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in driving recent cold and snowy winters over large parts of North America.¶ The following “thought experiment” illustrates how valuable¶ our civilization. And Arctic sea ice could be to blame. is attainable by human activities. the leading Russian¶ climatologist (now deceased). However.telegraph. with an average temperature of minus 40°C..

snowy UK winters. Writing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). though this now appears unlikely. of Georgia Institute if Technology in Atlanta. and the Insitute of Atmospheric Physics in Beijing has also elucidated the mechanisms involved. east Asia and Europe. "We conclude the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters. wetter weather to Europe from the west. The researchers also found that the extra evaporation from the Arctic Ocean makes the air more humid." commented Adam Scaife. "For the past four winters." In November research showed there is less Arctic sea ice now than there has been at any time in the last 1. "This is no bigger than the solar effect or the El Nino effect." Dr Liu told BBC News. according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Whether conditions will get colder still as ice melts further is unclear. a study shows. His team's next research project is to feed Arctic ice projections and the . "We don't see a predictive relationship with any of the other factors that have been proposed. confirmed the argument. we do see a predictive relationship.bbc.450 years. warming the atmosphere. but for sea ice. "Moreover. whereas Arctic ice is on a pretty consistent downward trend. said: "Here we demonstrate the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. the team headed by Jiping Liu from Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. But it has gone further than others in assessing the strength of the link. for much of the northern US. But they vary. one projection even showed 2013 was possible. head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office. And he emphasised that the declining Arctic ice cover was just one of several factors that could increase blocking. University of Reading: "This is very early days for this research" The oscillation is not understood well enough to predict . and you still produce the same note. any pattern it has may be changing due to escalating greenhouse gas concentrations. it releases more heat. we had this persistent above-normal snow cover. which still holds the record for the lowest extent on record. such as El Nino. http://www. US. the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources. and it has not recovered since. a US/China-based team show this affects the jet stream and brings cold. this reduces the strength of the northern jet stream. Environment correspondent.Gonzaga Debate Institute 162 Warming Core snowfall in these areas. Warming causes a second ice age – melting ice Black 2/27/12 (By Richard Black." cautioned Dr Liu. Nevertheless. winters in the UK and the rest of the affected region will be colder in years to come than they have been in recent decades. The current winter is roughly tracking the graph of 2007. Dr Liu. The dwindling Arctic summer ice may have severe consequences for wildlife In turn. Dr Scaife was involved with another study published last year that showed how small. This reduces the air temperature difference between the Arctic and latitudes further south. It is these "blocking" conditions that keep the UK and the other affected regions supplied with cold air . but there are some uncertainties.I have no beef with the case that declining Arctic sea ice can drive easterly winds and produce colder winters over Europe. So a related question is whether UK winters will get colder and snowier still as the melting progresses. As global temperatures have risen.co. a natural variation of air pressure that also changes northern weather." How it happens If less of the ocean is ice-covered in autumn. Through observations and computer modelling. Melting Arctic link to cold. The new study is not the first to propose a causal relationship between low Arctic ice in autumn and Europe's winter weather. "I agree with the study . "It's possible that future winters will be colder and snowier." The picture is further complicated by the involvement of the Arctic Oscillation. A few years ago. ranging from 2016 to about 2060.uk/news/science-environment-17143269) The progressive shrinking of Arctic sea ice is bringing colder. snowy weather. with some of the additional water content falling out as snow. natural changes in the Sun's output can also affect winter weather. the area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice in summer and autumn has been falling. which usually brings milder. over the Atlantic Ocean. snowier winters to the UK and other areas of Europe. Various computer simulations have generated a range of dates by which the Arctic might be completely ice-free in summer and autumn. There was a marked deterioration in ice cover between the summers of 2006 and 2007. Research in other institutions. he said." he told BBC News. the research suggests that on average. supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. "This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. BBC News. "You can hit a bell with anything. including the Met Office. Dr Len Shaffrey. North America and China.and even if it were.

“An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?. The head of the project is a Japanese expert.000 years. 2002 (Andre. and see whether they do forecast a growing winter chill.p. Based on geological records available in 1972. There is the process of nuclear fusion happening on the Sun. China. the scientists concluded that “it is likely that the present-day warm epoch will terminate relatively soon if man does not intervene” ( 1. These projections were based on statistical rules or simple models that did not include any CO2 forcing.000 years ago). He said the building of the new technology power plant will take at least another 10 years. Croatian Times.” EBSCO. based on the relation between the observed rate of change of ice volume and the summer solstice radiation. Vol. **This card has been gender modified The Zagreb based scientist says it will still be possible for humans to survive in the ice age. CBC) When paleoclimatologists gathred in 1972 to discuss how and when the present warm period would end ( 1). They thus implicitly assumed a value equal to the average of the last glacial-interglacial cycles [∼225 parts per million by volume (ppmv) ( 8)]. Past interglacials may have been longer than originally assumed ( 2).000 years. Vladimir Paar revealed.¶ Most early attempts to predict future climate at the geological time scale ( 6. 10. With a simple ice-sheet model. 23.000 years ( 10). We are also increasingly aware of the intensification of the greenhouse effect by human activities ( 4). including marine isotope stage 11 (MIS-11. Science. But more recent studies point toward a different future: a long interglacial that may last another 50. The fuel for that process is hydrogen and such a power plant is already worked on in France as a consortium involving firms from Marseille and the European Union. 2010 (Oct. Some. Oerlemans and Van der Veen ( 9) predicted a long interglacial lasting another 50.000 years Berger. Russia. professor at Universite Catholique de Louvain and MF Loutre.¶ Some assumptions made 30 years ago have since been questioned. accessed 7/12/13. 267). 297. commented the professor. who remains optimistic despite his predictions. accessed 7/12/13. This is about the length of the current warm interval—the Holocene—to date. may have been warmer than at present ( 3). future climate may not develop as in past interglacials ( 5) because the forcings and mechanisms that produced these earlier warm periods may have been quite different from today's. “Croat scientist warns ice age could start in five years.com/news/General_News/2010-0210/8836/Croat_scientist_warns_ice_age_could_start_in_five_years. 400. ∼125. the US. . But even without human perturbation.croatiantimes. and former Japanese ambassador in Croatia". "In 40 years we'll know how it functions. 7) prolonged the cooling that started at the peak of the Holocene some 6000 years ago. It would need to be produced in greenhouses with a lot of energy spent to heat it". CBC) *quoting Vladimir Paar—physicist at Croatia’s Zagreb University.¶ An interglacial is an uninterrupted warm interval during which global climate reaches at least the preindustrial level of warmth.000 years ago) were believed to have lasted about 10.000 years. the professor concluded. predicting a cold interval in about 25. He said: "The nuclear energy we know today will not last longer than 100 years as we simply do not have enough uranium in the world to match the needs in an ice age. Ledley also stated that an ice age is unlikely to begin in the next 70. Aug.000 years. 163 No extinction from ice age—technology solves Croatian Times.¶ But some studies disagreed with these projections. We have a lot of hydrogen and the method is an ecological one". but the spending on energy will be enormous.000 years and a glaciation in about 55.” http://www. But I'm still optimistic.000 years. The most recent scientific consensus is that an ice age will not occur for at least 70. a slide into the next glacial seemed imminent. That would be a solution that could last for thousands of years. "Food production also might be a problem. followed by a first glacial maximum in about 65. the last two interglacials including the Eemian. Japan and South Korea.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core mechanisms they have deciphered into various computer models of climate. Assuming a similar duration for all interglacials.

a year after it was in the opposite warm El Niño pattern. said that any focus on the last few months or years as evidence undermining the established theory that accumulating greenhouse gases are making the world warmer was.¶ “Climate skeptics typically take a few small pieces of the puzzle to debunk global warming.¶ “Temperatures are very likely to recover after the La Niña event is over. ¶ The event will convene an array of scientists. statisticians and libertarian commentators holding a dizzying range of views on the changing climate — from those who see a human influence but think it is not dangerous..” he said. at best. He pointed to similar drops in 1988. a waste of time and.” ¶ More clucking about the cold is likely over the next several days. paralyzing blizzards in China. “Skeptics on Human Climate Impact seize on cold spell.” http://www. 2008 (Andrew. along with a cold kick from the tropical Pacific Ocean. the fresh-formed ice remains far thinner than the yards-thick. economists.” read a blog post and news release on Wednesday from Marc Morano. in an e-mail message. but with a long-term warming trend clear nonetheless.¶ So what is happening?¶ According to a host of climate experts. weather and climate writer for the NY Times. including some who question the extent and risks of global warming. opinion writers. many Arctic experts said. ¶ If anything else is afoot — like some cooling related to sunspot cycles or slow shifts in ocean and atmospheric patterns that can influence temperatures — an array of scientists who have staked out differing positions on the overall threat from global warming agree that there is no way to pinpoint whether such a new force is at work. and ignore the whole picture that the larger science community s ees by looking at all the pieces.¶ Discerning a human influence on climate. Arctic sea ice returning with a vengeance after a record retreat last summer. years-old ice that dominated the region until the 1990s. This means that one cannot look at any single year and know whether what one is seeing is the signal or the noise or both the signal and the noise. Many attendees say it is the dawn of a new paradigm.¶ “Earth’s ‘Fever’ Breaks: Global COOLING Currently Under Way. which is in its La Niña phase for a few more months. accessed 7/12/13. But many climate scientists and environmental campaigners say it is the skeptics’ last stand. and 1998. the sun’s fault or beneficial.” He added. was undaunted. it is mostly good old-fashioned weather.”¶ The shifts in the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic (where ice has retreated significantly in recent summers) and Antarctic (where the area of floating sea ice has grown lately) are similarly hard to attribute to particular influences. CBC) The world has seen some extraordinary winter conditions in both hemispheres over the past year: snow in Johannesburg last June and in Baghdad in January. March 2. Dissenters of a man-made ‘climate crisis’ are using the reality of this record-breaking winter to expose the silly warming alarmism that the news media and some scientists have been ceaselessly promoting for decades. Morano. The Heartland Institute.nytimes. at worst.¶ That means the odds of having vast stretches of open water next summer remain high. 1991-92. Calif. a harmful distraction. a public policy research group in Chicago opposed to regulatory approaches to environmental problems. thereby revealing the signal. to others who say global warming is a hoax. ¶ Many scientists also say that the cool spell in no way undermines the enormous body of evidence pointing to a warming world with disrupted weather patterns. ¶ It is no wonder that some scientists. a scientist at Remote Sensing Systems. political operatives and other people who challenge warnings about dangerous human-caused global warming have jumped on this as a teachable moment. “The only way to do this within our noisy climate system is to average over a sufficient number of years that the noise is greatly diminished.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 164 Their predictions about cooling are based on short term logic—default to long term trends which show warming is coming Revkin. less ice and rising seas should heat-trapping greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and forests continue to accumulate in the air.com/2008/03/02/science/02cold. “involves finding a signal in a noisy background. is holding a conference in Times Square on Monday and Tuesday aimed at exploring questions about the cause and dangers of climate change.¶ “The current downturn is not very unusual. ¶ Michael E. Schlesinger. Urbana-Champaign.¶ Mr. the communications director for the Republican minority on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. The New York Times. and a sharp drop in the globe’s average temperature. an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois.html.¶ Interviews and e-mail exchanges with half a dozen polar climate and ice experts last week produced a rough consensus: Even with the extensive refreezing of Arctic waters in the deep chill of the sunless boreal winter. that has been using satellite data to track global temperature and whose findings have been held out as reliable by a variety of climate experts. saying turnabout is fair play: “Fair is fair. he said.” said Carl Mears. a private research group in Santa Rosa. Noting (not hyping) an unusually harsh global winter is merely pointing out the obvious.” .

Rigor. “Deep Future”. There is this desire to explain everything that we see in terms of something you think you understand.C. and science journalist with a Ph.D.. either hot or cold. Schmidt said. reasonably accessible form. Michaels on many issues. or I. in biology and geology from Duke University. (Curt. but concurred on this point.¶ Some scientists who strongly disagree with each other on the extent of warming coming in this century. we would bequeath it to later generations for possible use. ¶ He said the argument for a growing human influence on climate laid out in last year’s reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. and on what to do about it. some societies might benefit from a partial and temporary opening of the Arctic Ocean. (He is on the program at the skeptics’ conference. CBC) But maybe there's a middle route. reports. Michaels. has long chided environmentalists and the media for overstating connections between extreme weather and human-caused warming. whether that’s the next ice age coming or global warming.P.Gonzaga Debate Institute 165 Warming Core said Ignatius G. but it is still lower than the long-term mean. the preponderance of evidence suggests that global warming is real. when nearly all of the Arctic Ocean between Alaska and Siberia was open water. By saving most of our fossil carbon in a safe. cost-effective tool for climate control. not necessarily as a fuel but rather as a simple. agreed that it was important not to be tempted to overinterpret short-term swings in climate. could still surpass last year’s. saying that the “predictable distortion” of extreme weather “goes in both directions.)¶ But Dr.” Dr. p 17-19.000 years away Stager. solid. Michaels said that those now trumpeting global cooling should beware of doing the same thing.¶ Patrick J. “but as the I. 11. this year’s winter ice extent is higher than last year’s. This could also produce a longer-term benefit.” As for the Arctic. If we do manage to follow a moderate-emissions path. I give the same answer I give a guy who asks about a blizzard. a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan who has spoken out about the need to reduce greenhouse gases.”¶ Gavin A. then we'll probably be leaving most of our coal reserves where they lie and running our future civilizations on other energy sources. ¶ “I will admit that we do not have all the pieces.P.000 ad will be held at bay. by leaving lots of coal already sequestered in the ground for later.C. “Yes. disagrees with Dr. Rigor said next summer’s ice retreat.C. Rigor said. Weather isn’t going to go away because of climate change. despite the regrowth of thin fresh-formed ice now. a climatologist and commentator with the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington. Environmental damage during the next several centuries will be held to a minimum.”¶ Dr. he said.” Dr. paleoclimatologist. an ecologist. as well. a climate scientist at the Polar Science Center of the University of Washington in Seattle. was supported by evidence from many fields.C.” The plan doesn’t cause an ice age—and even if it does. “It’s all in the long-term trends. Schmidt. its 50. and the next ice age of 50. .¶ “When I get called by CNN to comment on a big summer storm or a drought or something.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 166 ***CO2 Good – Agriculture DA*** .

Molden (2007) and Molden et al. (2007)." as the two Australian researchers write. (2010). because on top of everything else we may try to do to conserve both land and freshwater resources. So. in this regard."¶ The first question they ask in regard to how we might ." which by the looks of today's world is an even more remote possibility than that implied by the proverbial wishful thinking." This huge increase. according to Hanjra and Qureshi." they indicate that "irrigation will be the first sector to lose water. what can we do to defuse the ticking time-bomb that is the looming food and water crisis?¶ We suggest doing nothing. and ecosystem health and services. on top of everything else they suggest (a goodly portion of which will not be achieved). "must not lose sight of surging water scarcity. and reform the global food and trade market.org/articles/V13/N44/EDIT. Number 44:3 November. http://www. Godfray et al. And to ensure that this happens. hunger.co2science.php) In introducing their review of food security publications pertinent to the challenge of feeding nine billion people just four decades from now. And to achieve these goals." Some of the things they propose." And noting that "increasing water scarcity will have implications for food security. up from 6800 km3 used today. modernize irrigation. we will still fall short of what is needed to be achieved unless the air's CO2 content rises significantly and thereby boosts the water use efficiency of earth's crop plants. in their words. CO2 solves food shortages – no habitat destruction Sherwood and Idso 10 (Keith and Craig. Volume 13. The most recent of this community of researchers to address the approaching problem are Hanjra and Qureshi (2010). these other energy sources will have to become much more cost-efficient before fossil fuels are phased out."¶ "Food policy. Number 49:8. shore up domestic food supplies." CO2 Science Magazine. "will leave a water gap of about 3300 km3 even after improving efficiency in irrigated agriculture." as per the findings of de Fraiture et al. and upgrading of rainfed agriculture. are to conserve water and energy resources. we will need all of the CO2 that will be produced by the burning of fossil fuels. But not just any "nothing. gas and oil. December. we know the worth of water." citing the FAO (2009). various astute observers of man's precarious position on planet earth call our attention to a developing global crisis that seems destined to wreak havoc on the human race a mere forty years from now: a lack of sufficient land and freshwater resources to produce the food that will be required to sustain our growing population. and they write that although "increases in production will have an important part to play" in correcting this problem and keeping it from worsening in the future. reengage in agriculture for further development. http://www. they state that mankind "will be constrained by the finite resources provided by the earth's lands. "The World's Looming Food and Water Shortage.co2science. poverty. improving water management. as well as that of the plants that provide food and habitat for what could be called "wild nature. as water competition by non-agricultural uses increases and water scarcity intensifies. because the positive externality of the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency provided by the steady rise in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration due to the burning of fossil fuels will be providing a most important service in helping us feed and sustain our own species without totally decimating what yet remains of wild nature. "will lead to a food gap unless concerted actions are taken today. In fact. Volume 13." they report that "feeding the 2050 population will require some 12." enabling both sets of plants to produce more biomass per unit of water used in the process. until other forms of energy truly become more cost-efficient than coal.¶ This water deficiency.org/articles/V13/N49/EDIT." CO2 Science Magazine. they say that "unprecedented global cooperation is required. "Surviving the Perfect Storm." Stating that "population and income growth will increase the demand for food and water. We suggest this.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 167 1NC – Agriculture DA High-risk of short-term food shortages – CO2 emissions is key to prevent extinction Sherwood and Idso 10 (Keith and Craig. develop and adopt climateresilient crop varieties. unforced evolution of civilization's means of acquiring energy. oceans and atmosphere.400 km3 of water.php) Every now and then." The nothing we suggest is to not mess with the normal." which set of difficulties they describe at the end of their review as comprising a "perfect storm. (2010) note that "more than one in seven people today still do not have access to sufficient protein and energy from their diet and even more suffer some form of micronutrient malnourishment . who begin their treatment of the subject by quoting Benjamin Franklin's well-known homily: "when the well is dry.

Thus. because we should be enlightened enough to realize that we have a moral responsibility to drive no more species to extinction than we have already sent to that sorry state..¶ So how can these diverse requirements all be met? . is biosphere-sustaining food. suggests an obvious. or what have you. which lists the experimentally-derived photosynthetic and biomass production responses of a huge host of different plants to standardized increases in the air's CO2 concentration. but also because we do not have the right to deprive future generations of its economic and cultural benefits.co2science. Keith. taken in their entirety. the insertion of more raw materials (in this case CO2) into the production line results in more manufactured goods coming out the other end." He then asks why peace has been so elusive. as you can read about -.is the very elixir of life. in his words. which we equated with world population." This fact." but they note that there is precious little remaining of either of these pristine resources. "is the engine that fuels broader economic growth and development. they conclude that "the most likely scenario is that more food will need to be produced from the same or less land. we might add. as well as tolerance of abiotic stress. path to peace: "raise the standard of living of the millions of rural people who live in poverty by increasing agricultural productivity. Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 increase the photosynthetic prowess of essentially all of earth's plants. which in turn sustains nearly all of the planet's animal life. 1999 http://www. and at one and the same time? A clue comes from Godfray et al. tasteless gas that all of us release to the atmosphere with every breath we exhale fits the bill perfectly." because. Give Peace a Chance by Giving Plants a Chance. and by the way.on our website (check out our Subject Index for a host of related topics). October 1.org/articles/V2/N19/EDIT. people everywhere promote the cause of peace by fertilizing the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.¶ Yes. not only because biodiversity provides many of the public goods upon which mankind relies. but that world food needs. we expected an era of peace" but got instead "a decade of war.php) President Carter begins by stating that "when the Cold War ended 10 years ago. you can also spend a few months reading about all of the scientific studies which. the colorless. thus paving the way for prosperity and peace. poverty in developing countries "whose economies depend on agriculture but which lack the means to make their farmland productive." And.. more CO2 in the air tends to enhance the efficiency with which plants utilize nutrients in constructing their tissues and producing the edible portions that we and all of earth's animals depend upon for our very existence.Gonzaga Debate Institute 168 Warming Core successfully navigate this highly restricted terrain is: "How can more food be produced sustainably?" They say that the primary solution to food shortages of the past was "to bring more land into agriculture and to exploit new fish stocks. DC on 31 August . and as you can readily convince yourself is true by perusing our vast Plant Growth Database. while generally reducing the rate at which they simultaneously transfer water from the soil to the air. he ominously proclaims in his concluding paragraph that "there can be no peace until people have enough to eat. we also calculated that the . ruble."¶ Can the case for atmospheric CO2 enrichment be made any clearer? Automatically. "leaders of developing nations must make food security a priority. we recently completed a project commissioned by the Greening Earth Society entitled "Forecasting World Food Supplies: The Impact of the Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration. Fortunately."¶ Within this context. odorless.2 September 1999." And what is there that can bring about all of these changes in mankind's crops? You guessed it: carbon dioxide. he says. would likely rise by 51% over this period. but often overlooked. ¶ As with any production process.one of the major end-products of the combustion process that fuels the engines of industry and transportation . Vice president of CO2 Science. We found that continued increases in agricultural knowledge and expertise would likely boost world food production by 37% between now and the middle of the next century. in the case of the production line of plant growth and development." his argument being that thriving agriculture." which we presented at the Second Annual Dixy Lee Ray Memorial Symposium held in Washington.'s statement that "greater water and nutrient use efficiency. answering that most of today's wars are fueled by poverty. president of CO2 Science. pretty much demonstrate that the climatic catastrophes prophesied by the world's climate alarmists to result from anthropogenic CO2 emissions are largely devoid of significant real-world substantiation." Indeed. "we must avoid the temptation to sacrifice further the earth's already hugely depleted biodiversity for easy gains in food production. and without the investment of a single hard-earned dollar. as they suggest.almost interminably -. being the primary building block of all plant tissues via the essential role it plays in the photosynthetic process that sustains nearly all of earth's vegetation.¶ Oh. which. In addition. for CO2 . And as President Carter rightly states. are likely to become of increasing importance. CO2 Ag Fertilization is key to solve the root cause of global war – resource disparity Idso and idso 99 (Craig.

and scientifically proven ."¶ So. let's give all of the world's national economies a chance as well. while we're at it. The effects know no boundaries and both developing and developed countries are.Gonzaga Debate Institute 169 Warming Core shortfall in production could be overcome . sharing equally. and fertilizer. Let's let the air's CO2 content rise unimpeded.aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. . Climate. stated in his 1995 book.by the additional benefits anticipated to accrue from the many productivity-enhancing effects of the expected rise in the air's CO2 content over the same time period. energy. Food. And.but just barely . in a world of otherwise diminishing natural resources of land. and will be. It is a means of inadvertently increasing the productivity of farming systems and other photosynthetically active ecosystems. As Sylvan Wittwer.¶ Our findings suggest that the world food security envisioned by President Carter is precariously dependent upon the continued rising of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration. And let's let CO2 do its wonderful work of promoting world peace via the planet-wide prosperity that comes from enhanced agricultural productivity.¶ "The rising level of atmospheric CO2 could be the one global natural resource that is progressively increasing food production and total biological output. minerals. water. Let's live and let live. Let's give plants a chance. let's give peace a chance. and let's let the peoples of the world reap the multitudinous benefits that come from the God-given . Director Emeritus of Michigan State University's Agricultural Experiment Station. and Carbon Dioxide: The Global Environment and World Food Production.

Two Crises of Unbelievable Magnitude: Can We Prevent One Without Exacerbating the Other? Volume 4.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 170 2NC – Impact Calc CO2 Solves Food Scarcity – Outweighs and Turns the Case A. the most recent report of the IPCC suggests that it could get either warmer or colder than what they predicted five years ago. Raven (2002) notes that "species-area relationships. Number 24: 13 June. Probability – ambivalence causes extinction Idso squared 1 (Craig and Keith.co2science. to both define and implement.co2science. and in this regard we have already completed. anthropogenic CO2 emissions. that the last five years . being possibly nil or even positive. pales in significance.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that "drew little public notice" when it was released to the world at large.. The second task. In addition. is to determine if the likelihood of catastrophic CO2-induced global warming occurring sometime in the foreseeable future is anywhere near as certain as the looming agricultural crisis. (2001) note that developed countries are expected to actually withdraw large areas of land from farming over the next fifty years.org/articles/V4/N24/EDIT. In addition. lead to projections of the loss of fully two-thirds of all species on earth by the end of this century. We have determined with a good degree of confidence that the agriculturally-driven environmental crisis will likely occur in spite of all we can do to stop it with what we already know. this would probably be it: a single species of life.e. In spite of the bad marks we gave the journal's Editor-in-Chief a few weeks ago for his extremely biased comments about the subject (see our Editorial of 18 April 2001). i." And in consequence of humanity's ongoing usurpation of this most basic of natural resources. one phase of the required analysis. taken worldwide in relation to habitat destruction. news writer Kerr has produced an amazingly balanced piece of science journalism aimed at this topic that provides all the information needed for our purposes. As noted by Huang et al. simply by taking their land. what many people believe to be the cause of global warming. or course. its root cause is highly debated. In other words. http://www. by comparison.N. and grasslands. Its impact is nowhere near as severe. That something was the fact that the range of global warming projections actually widened over the five years since the group's previous set of warming projections. with a little help from our friends. wherein we consider the question of risk. Furthermore. and so we will take a different tack. of course." along with the many unique species they support.org/articles/V5/N36/EDIT. and actions to thwart it are much more difficult. What we will do instead is refer to the recent News Focus article of Kerr (2001) in the 13 April issue of Science. Tilman et al.¶ Kerr begins by pointing out something about the latest report from the U. (2002). therefore. they calculate that the loss of these countries' natural ecosystems to cropland and pasture will amount to about half of all potentially suitable remaining land.php) So how do we resolve the knotty issue of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Global warming. savannas. 2001). which "could lead to the loss of about a third of remaining tropical and temperate forests. September 4 2002. argue this question back and forth with various climate alarmists until both of our groups turned blue in the face. human populations "have encroached on almost all of the world's frontiers. leaving developing countries to shoulder essentially all of the growing burden of feeding our expanding species.. may actually be a powerful force for preserving land for nature. is on course to completely annihilate fully two-thirds of the ten million or so other species with which we share the planet within a mere hundred years."¶ If one were to pick the most significant problem currently facing the biosphere. Magnitude – their science is wrong and its try or die CO2 Science 2 (Feeding Humanity to Help Save Natural Ecosystems: The Role of the Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration. Homo sapiens. ¶ We could. http://www. if not impossible. and even in spite of all we can do to stop it with what we can reasonably hope to learn over the next fifty years (Idso and Idso. ¶ What parts of the world are likely to be hardest hit by this human land-eating machine? Tilman et al. which means. B.php) How much land can ten billion people spare for nature? This provocative question was posed by Waggoner (1995) in the title of an essay designed to illuminate the dynamic tension that exists between the need for land to support the agricultural enterprises that sustain mankind and the need for land to support the natural ecosystems that sustain all other creatures. when they are claimed to create one crisis but are deemed capable of averting another? We do it by invoking the precautionary principle. 2000. leaving little new land that is cultivatable.

As noted by Huang et al. Tilman et al. CO2 Solves Food Scarcity – Solves the root cause of war – resource scarcity – creates precedent for global cooperation CO2 Science 2 (Center for the study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Number 36: 4 September. due to expected increases in per capita real income and dietary shifts toward a higher proportion of meat.. Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Tim Barnett says "I don't know that they reproduce climate any better.php How much land can ten billion people spare for nature? This provocative question was posed by Waggoner (1995) in the title of an essay designed to illuminate the dynamic tension that exists between the need for land to support the agricultural enterprises that sustain mankind and the need for land to support the natural ecosystems that sustain all other creatures. its root cause is highly debated. and grasslands. pales in significance. They note.¶ With respect to the first of these requirements. This observation. Homo sapiens."¶ If one were to pick the most significant problem currently facing the biosphere. Tilman et al. states that "to make it sound like we understand climate is not right." Peter Stone of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology offers the opinion that "the major [climate prediction] uncertainties have not been reduced at all. Raven (2002) notes that "species-area relationships." . http://www. C. leaving developing countries to shoulder essentially all of the growing burden of feeding our expanding species. (2002) introduce a few more facts before suggesting some solutions. In addition. "highlights the need for efforts to steadily increase the yield potential ceiling. Its impact is nowhere near as severe."¶ With respect to how today's climate models perform in comparison to those of five years ago. they calculate that the loss of these countries' natural ecosystems to cropland and pasture will amount to about half of all potentially suitable remaining land. says "it's extremely hard to tell whether the models have improved. Feeding Humanity to Help Save Natural Ecosystems: The Role of the Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Volume 5. in Kerr's words. In addition. and (3) increasing crop yield per unit of water used. this would probably be it: a single species of life. may actually be a powerful force for preserving land for nature." Jeffrey Kiehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research allows that "the more we learn [about aerosols]. Hence. by comparison."¶ So how is it to be done? Tilman et al. (2001) note that developed countries are expected to actually withdraw large areas of land from farming over the next fifty years.¶ What can be done to alleviate this bleak situation? In a new analysis of the problem. (2) increasing crop yield per unit of nutrients applied.e.co2science. they say. noting that in some vital areas of the climate modeling enterprise. anthropogenic CO2 emissions. the less we know. which "could lead to the loss of about a third of remaining tropical and temperate forests.¶ Kerr then proceeds to interview a number of outstanding climate scientists about this intriguing situation." which includes a lot more than just CO2. it is very true that "uncertainties have actually grown." And in consequence of humanity's ongoing usurpation of this most basic of natural resources. lead to projections of the loss of fully two-thirds of all species on earth by the end of this century." Texas A & M's Gerald North. "to almost compensate for the total warming from all current greenhouse gases.Gonzaga Debate Institute 171 Warming Core of scientific scrutiny of the subject have only served to make earth's climatic future more uncertain than it was five years ago. simply by taking their land. leaving little new land that is cultivatable. Global warming. for example. as the genetic ceiling for maximal yield potential is being approached. savannas. ¶ What parts of the world are likely to be hardest hit by this human land-eating machine? Tilman et al. the progress on the aerosol front has been so "good" that the range of possible aerosol effects now extends from essentially no effect to a cooling large enough. (2002) suggest a strategy that is built around three essential tasks: (1) increasing crop yield per unit of land area. if not impossible. i. is on course to completely annihilate fully two-thirds of the ten million or so other species with which we share the planet within a mere hundred years." along with the many unique species they support. to both define and implement." Seattle's Robert Charlson. and actions to thwart it are much more difficult.org/articles/V5/N36/EDIT. taken worldwide in relation to habitat destruction. for example. note that in many parts of the world the historical rate of increase in crop yields is declining. (2002). emeritus professor at the University of Washington. human populations "have encroached on almost all of the world's frontiers. what many people believe to be the cause of global warming. being possibly nil or even positive." In fact. they but state the obvious when they conclude that "raising yields on existing farmland is essential for 'saving land for nature'. Furthermore. that by 2050 the human population of the globe is projected to be 50% larger than it is today and that global grain demand could well double.

world food production could not have increased at the rate it did [in the past] and more natural ecosystems would have been converted to agriculture. 2001). cannot prevent many of the forecasted problems. We have got to do all that we can to preserve nature by helping to feed humanity.. and to do so successfully. 1983. This unfathomable consequence will occur simply because we will need more land to produce what is required to sustain us and. cause the extinction of untold millions of unique and irreplaceable species has got to rank close to the top of all conceivable immoralities. It is also the conclusion of scientists who have studied this problem in depth that the needed increase in agricultural productivity is not possible.¶ Although the impending biological crisis and several important elements of its potential solution are thus well defined. if world agricultural output is not dramatically increased. the bigger and better they grow. as stewards of the earth.note that these advances "will not increase production fast enough to meet the demands of the even faster-growing human population of the planet. atmospheric CO2 enrichment typically increases plant nutrient use efficiency and plant water use efficiency (see Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Water Use Efficiency in our Subject Index). fully deployed. we have a powerful ally in the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content that can provide what we can't. it would appear that the extinction of two-thirds of all species of plants and animals on the face of the earth is essentially assured within the next century."¶ Fortunately. . (2001) report that "even the best available technologies.¶ We humans. is also a must. nay. Tilman et al. Since atmospheric CO2 is the basic "food" of essentially all terrestrial plants. helping to increase agricultural output without the taking of new lands from nature.Gonzaga Debate Institute 172 Warming Core With respect to the second requirement. Tilman et al. increases in the air's CO2 content pay huge dividends." Hence. phosphorus. 1994). Finally. With the help of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content. (2002). for example. Idso and Idso (2000) have shown that we should be able . with respect to the third requirement. as the air's CO2 content continues to rise. Hence.to meet our expanding food needs without bringing down the curtain on the world of nature. have got to get our priorities straight. Thus.although acknowledging that "expected advances in agricultural technology and expertise will significantly increase the food production potential of many countries and regions" . but the death of species. even with anticipated improvements in technology and expertise." and so forth. they note that "without the use of synthetic fertilizers. while the productivity of its woody plants rises by 50 to 80% or more (Saxe et al. however. For a nominal doubling of the air's CO2 concentration. that is. with respect to all three of the major needs noted by Tilman et al. 1998. Any policies that stand in the way of that objective are truly obscene. and the Middle East to North Africa either currently or will soon fail to have adequate water to maintain per capita food production from irrigated land. the more of it there is in the air.¶ That certain forces continue to resist this reality is truly incredible. Idso and Idso. we have got to let the air's CO2 content rise. less CO2 means death . note that "water is regionally scarce." and that "many countries in a band from China through India and Pakistan. and not just the death of individuals. in cereal production per unit of added nitrogen. Idso and Kimball. in the absence of the needed productivity increase. they say the ultimate solution "will require significant increases in nutrient use efficiency. therefore. because we will simply take that land from nature to keep ourselves alive." Increasing crop water use efficiency.but just barely ." This is also the conclusion of the study of Idso and Idso (2000).. the productivity of earth's herbaceous plants rises by 30 to 50% (Kimball. More CO2 means life for the planet. And to allow. In addition.¶ In conclusion. who . so too will the land use efficiency of the planet rise right along with it (see also Plant Growth Data on our website).

2. for example. http://www. 1.php The second of the linkages of the new feedback loop is the ability of plants to emit gases to the atmosphere that are ultimately converted into "biosols. aerosols that owe their existence to the biological activities of earth's vegetation (Duce et al. B. http://www. The third linkage of the new .. Both limbs of this one-linkage-long double-barreled negative feedback loop are extremely powerful. Spencer 8 (Roy..Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 173 2NC – AT: CO2 Causes Warming CO2 AGRICULTURE FERTILIZATION ACTUALLY LOWERS THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENTS WARMING – ALL YOUR TURNS GO THE WRONG WAY. This latter consequence of atmospheric CO2 enrichment establishes a potential for more CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere by increasing the abundance of earth's plants. president of CO2 Science. Before humans started burning fossil fuels." i.php The first of the linkages of this negative feedback loop is the proven propensity for higher levels of atmospheric CO2 to enhance vegetative productivity (see Plant Growth Data on our sidebar for verification) and plant water use efficiency (see Water Use Efficiency in our Subject Index for verification).co2science. More Carbon Dioxide. vegetation and ocean plankton had been gobbling up as much CO2 out of the atmosphere as they could. while CO2induced increases in plant water use efficiency allow plants to grow where it was previously too dry for them.Bio-Aerosols––CO2 increases Biosols which block radiation and prevent warming.. sea life.) has been starved for atmospheric CO2. But this two-linkage-long negative feedback effect. the CO2-induced presence of more and more-highly-productive plants will lead to the production of more of these cloud-mediating particles. National Review Online. 1998. It takes little imagination to realize that since the existence of these atmospheric particles is dependent upon the physiological activities of plants and their associated soil biota (Idso. enable plants to remove considerably more CO2 from the air than they do under current conditions. 2001. Yet Another Biophysical Feedback Mechanism that May Help to Protect the Planet Against Deleterious CO2-Induced Global Warming October 10. which can then act as described by Charlson et al.b) has demonstrated how just the first of them may be capable of stabilizing the air's CO2 concentration at less than a doubling of its pre-industrial value. Please. to cool the planet.org/articles/V4/N41/EDIT. Hopke et al. Idso and idso 1 (Craig. 1987). Now. http://www. but it was like a vacuum cleaner trying to suck through a stopped-up hose. no matter how much CO2 we pump into the atmosphere each year.. 1983. Nevertheless. is still not the endpoint of the new feedback loop we are describing.e.com/articles/224319/more-carbon-dioxide-please/roy-spencer It is quite possible that the biosphere (vegetation. 1999). as Idso (1991a. PHOTOSYNTHESIS A. Yet Another Biophysical Feedback Mechanism that May Help to Protect the Planet Against Deleterious CO2-Induced Global Warming October 10. Keith. Idso and idso 1 (Craig. the biosphere takes out an average of 50 percent of that extra amount. Kavouras et al. Greater CO2-enhanced photosynthetic rates. Meszaros.nationalreview. Keith. whereas the former phenomenon does so by increasing their robustness. which phenomena are themselves powerful negative feedback mechanisms of the type we envision. May 1st 2008.org/articles/V4/N41/EDIT. This absorbs at least 50% of total emissions. 1990). 2001.. like the one-linkage-long dual cooling mechanism described in the previous paragraph. president of CO2 Science. Mooney et al. nature still takes out 50 percent of the extra amount. CO2 ENHANCES PHOTOSYNTHETIC RATES––THAT STABILIZES CO2 LEVELS. 1966. 1988. etc. Vice president of CO2 Science. these tremendous "side-effects" comprise but the first link of the more extended negative feedback loop that is the subject of this essay. Even after we triple the amount of CO2 we produce. many of which function as cloud condensation nuclei (Went. Vice president of CO2 Science.co2science.

there was an actual increase of fully 37% .ambient and that expected to result from a 15% stratospheric ozone depletion . In addition. Nmic rose even more.php) Atmospheric CO2 enrichment has long been known to help earth's plants withstand the debilitating effects of various environmental stresses. 1996). such as high temperature. the scientists exposed the plots to factorial combinations of UV-B radiation . For a period of five years. which phenomenon represents the first half of the carbon sequestration process. When the UV-B increase was accompanied by the CO2 increase.org/articles/V5/N22/COM. Johnson et al. When the plots were exposed to the enhanced UV-B radiation level expected to result from a 15% depletion of the planet's stratospheric ozone layer. as well as the negative consequences of certain resource limitations.after which they determined the amounts of microbial carbon (Cmic) and nitrogen (Nmic) in the soils of the plots. i. 18. especially if there is a chance it might otherwise attain a dangerously high level in terms of its potential to induce global warming.35°N. when the plots were exposed to the enhanced level of UV-B radiation. as we have indicated in earlier essays of this series. Johnson et al." Hence. The fifth linkage is the tendency for less internal canopy shading to enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis (Healey et al. the long-term storage of carbon is significantly enhanced. as more litter is chemically transformed into humic substances when nitrogen is more readily available.. The fourth linkage is the ability of enhanced diffuse lighting to reduce the volume of shade within vegetative canopies (Roderick et al. their study demonstrates that this phenomenon will likely have important consequences for soil carbon sequestration. which finally produces the end result: a greater biological extraction of CO2 from the air and subsequent sequestration of its carbon.ambient (around 365 ppm) and enriched (around 600 ppm) . in a previous essay in this series. Now. 1994). Again! http://www.82°E). Clearly. 1990). (2002) present evidence indicating that elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 do the same thing for soil microbes in the face of the enhanced receipt of solar ultravioletB radiation that would be expected to occur in response to a 15% depletion of the earth's stratospheric ozone layer. Keith.. 1988). in an important new study..co2science. the researchers found that the amount of Cmic in the soil was reduced to only 37% of what it was at the ambient UV-B level when the air's CO2 content was maintained at the ambient concentration. however.. 3.e. wherein we discussed the findings of the literature review of Berg and Matzner (1997). as was suggested in yet another related context well over a decade ago (Idso. water and nutrients (Idso and Idso.. 2001).. however. Carbon Sequestration––CO2 increases nitrogen in the soil which exponentially enhances its ability to safely absorb carbon.. Idso squared 8 (Sherwood. earth's biosphere is effectively programmed to engage in a whole host of different phenomena that may act to slow . we found that such is truly the case. 1974. In this case. These findings. "may have far-reaching implications . the 138% increase in soil microbial N observed in this study to accompany a 15% reduction in stratospheric ozone and a concomitant 64% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration (experienced in going from 365 ppm to 600 ppm) should do wonders in enhancing the input of plant litter to the soils of these ecosystems. lowly soil microbes may well play a major role in this .or actually stop .. With respect to the second stage of keeping as much of that carbon as possible in the soil. in the words of Johnson et al. With more nitrogen in the soil.and atmospheric CO2 concentration . the carbon input stage. the amount of Nmic in the soil experienced a 69% increase when the air's CO2 content was maintained at the ambient concentration." Indeed. The plots they studied were composed of open canopies of Betula pubescens ssp. Abakumova et al. excessive salinity levels and deleterious air pollution. because the productivity of many semi-natural ecosystems is limited by N (Ellenberg. When the UV-B increase was accompanied by the CO2 increase. Furthermore.Gonzaga Debate Institute 174 Warming Core scenario is the observed propensity for increases in aerosols and cloud particles to enhance the amount of diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth's surface (Suraqui et al. The story with respect to Nmic was both similar and different at one and the same time. czerepanovii and dense dwarf-shrub layers containing scattered herbs and grasses. note that "the capacity for subarctic semi-natural heaths to act as major sinks for fossil fuel-derived carbon dioxide is [also] likely to be critically dependent on the supply of N. CO2 to the Rescue . not only was there not a decrease in Cmic. such as less than optimal levels of light.the ongoing rise of the air's CO2 content.. 1998). experiencing a whopping 138% increase. Johnson et al. conducted their landmark work on experimental plots of subarctic heath located close to the Abisko Scientific Research Station in Swedish Lapland (68. and these resulting more recalcitrant carbon compounds can be successfully stored in the soil for many millennia. compliments of the intensified diffuse-light-driven increase in total canopy photosynthesis and subsequent transfers of the extra fixed carbon to plant and soil storage reservoirs..

because. as it would tend to lessen global photosynthetic activity. as is so nicely demonstrated in the new and unique study of Johnson et al." In addition. the observed reduction in total solar radiation received at the earth's surface during this period would have had a tendency to reduce the amount of photosynthetically active radiation incident upon earth's plants.2 ppm. .5 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere due to its diffuse-light-enhancing stimulation of terrestrial vegetation in the year following the eruption. this reduction is about the magnitude of the real-world perturbation that was actually observed (Sarmiento. CO2 encouraged bio-aerosols block warming – Volcano data supports. president of CO2 Science.org/articles/V4/N41/EDIT.Gonzaga Debate Institute 175 Warming Core biologically-mediated regulatory enterprise.php How significant is the process? Roderick et al. Specifically. conclude that the Mt. Roderick and his colleagues consider the volcanic eruption of Mt.co2science. Keith. Vice president of CO2 Science. http://www. which would also have had a tendency to cause the air's CO2 content to rise. Based on a set of lengthy calculations. in the words of the authors. provide a good estimate based on one of our favorite approaches to questions of this type: the utilization of a unique "natural experiment. What makes this observation even more impressive is the fact that the CO2 reduction was coincident with an El Niño event. "previous and subsequent such events have been associated with increases in atmospheric CO2. Roderick et al. Yet Another Biophysical Feedback Mechanism that May Help to Protect the Planet Against Deleterious CO2-Induced Global Warming October 10. which would have reduced the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 concentration that year by about 1. Interestingly. while only slightly reducing the receipt of total solar radiation. 1993)." a technique that has been used extensively by Idso (1998) to evaluate the climatic sensitivity of the entire planet. Pinatubo in June of 1991. Idso and idso 1 (Craig. This event ejected enough gases and fine materials into the atmosphere that it produced sufficient aerosol particles to greatly increase the diffuse component of the solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth from that point in time through much of 1993. 2001. 4. Pinatubo eruption may well have resulted in the removal of an extra 2. in Swedish Lapland.

social systems. . If no mitigating actions are taken." But the warming is only missing if one believes computer models where so-called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small effect of CO2. the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the U. a supporter of President Obama in the last election. in the frightening period when Trofim Lysenko hijacked biology in the Soviet Union.EMPIRICALLY PROVEN Wall Street Journal 2013(Wall Street Journal. Plants do so much better with more CO2 that greenhouse operators often increase the CO2 concentrations by factors of three or four to get better growth. 2013 http://online. many young scientists furtively say that while they also have serious doubts about the global-warming message. And the number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year. Soviet biologists who revealed that they believed in genes.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 176 2NC – AT: BioD Impact CO2 helps the environment. but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?" In spite of a multidecade international campaign to enforce the message that increasing amounts of the "pollutant" carbon dioxide will destroy civilization. significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems.wsj. dared to publish a peer-reviewed article with the politically incorrect (but factually correct) conclusion that the recent warming is not unusual in the context of climate changes over the past thousand years. This is no surprise since plants and animals evolved when CO2 concentrations were about 10 times larger than they are today. but we have seen it before—for example. chemical fertilizers and agricultural management contributed to the great increase in agricultural yields of the past century. were fired from their jobs. This is known to the warming establishment. NO GLOBAL WARMING -. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. “No Need to Panic About Global Warming” July 4. They have good reason to worry. the editor of the journal Climate Research. Chris de Freitas. many very prominent. Many were sent to the gulag and some were condemned to death. large numbers of scientists. to enable anything unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2. Dr.html) Editor's Note: The following has been signed by the 16 scientists listed at the end of the article: A candidate for public office in any contemporary democracy may have to consider what. In 2003. Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now. Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ivar Giaever. publicly resigned from the American Physical Society (APS) with a letter that begins: "I did not renew [my membership] because I cannot live with the [APS policy] statement: 'The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. The fact is that CO2 is not a pollutant.N. Giaever. de Freitas removed from his editorial job and fired from his university position. if anything. The reason is a collection of stubborn scientific facts. they are afraid to speak up for fear of not being promoted—or worse. to do about "global warming. In September. exhaled at high concentrations by each of us. but part of the increase almost certainly came from additional CO2 in the atmosphere. security and human health are likely to occur. Better plant varieties.' In the APS it is OK to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves. share the opinions of Dr. which Lysenko maintained were a bourgeois fiction.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections—suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause. a large and growing number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that drastic actions on global warming are needed. Dr. Faced with this embarrassment. and a key component of the biosphere's life cycle. Fortunately. The international warming establishment quickly mounted a determined campaign to have Dr. de Freitas was able to keep his university job. those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes. The lack of warming for more than a decade—indeed." Candidates should understand that the oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something dramatic be done to stop global warming is not true. In fact. This is not the way science is supposed to work. as one can see from the 2009 "Climategate" email of climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. Although the number of publicly dissenting scientists is growing.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366. CO2 is a colorless and odorless gas.

http://nipccreport. (2006). The Chinese scientists identify several implications of their findings that ―CO2 enrichment enhances photosynthetic rate. and they fiercely defended their dogma and the privileges it brought them. (2007). but a good place to start is the old question "cui bono?" Or the modern update. with a pH of 8. A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls. much of the huge private and government investment in climate is badly in need of critical review. If elected officials feel compelled to "do something" about climate. and in the analysis of observational data. Even if one accepts the inflated climate forecasts of the IPCC. citing the work of Beer et al. growth rate and NSC concentrations of T. The better we understand climate. Jiang et al. Giaever resigned a few months ago. refused the seemingly reasonable request by many of its members to remove the word "incontrovertible" from its description of a scientific issue? There are several reasons. the better we can cope with its everchanging nature. and a lure for big donations to charitable foundations promising to save the planet. 2011 (Craig D. with a pH of 7. "Follow the money.” 2011 Interim Report. that ―nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) of T. from which Dr. Carter. with a pH of 6. The three researchers report the ―leaf growth rate of CO2enriched plants was significantly higher than that in the unenriched treatment.10. Director of the Scienceand Environmental Policy Project. aggressive greenhouse-gas control policies are not justified economically. taxpayer-funded subsidies for businesses that understand how to work the political system. we recommend supporting the excellent scientists who are increasing our understanding of climate with well-designed instruments on satellites. Southern China. health and life expectancy that the fully developed parts of the world enjoy now. which they transported to the laboratory and cultured inflowthrough seawater aquaria bubbled with four different concentrations of CO2 representative of (1) the present global ocean. providing government funding for academic research and a reason for government bureaucracies to grow. Warming is Key to Macroalgae Development Idso.75.Gonzaga Debate Institute 177 Warming Core Why is there so much passion about global warming." Alarmism over climate is of great benefit to many. hemprichii. Every candidate should support rational measures to protect and improve our environment. increased strongly with elevated CO2. hemprichii from Xincun Bay of Hainan Island. in the oceans and on land.org/reports/2011/2011report.50. “Climate Change Reconsidered. with a pH of 7. dominating in many mixed meadows. Speaking for many scientists and engineers who have looked carefully and independently at the science of climate. This would be especially beneficial to the less-developed parts of the world that would like to share some of the same advantages of material well-being. we have a message to any candidate for public office: There is no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to "decarbonize" the world's economy. 2011. and (4) the ocean characteristic of ―an extreme beyond the current predictions (a hundredfold increase in free CO2. NIPCC. and Singer.html. (2010) note ―seagrasses are flowering plants that thrive in shallow oceanic and estuarine waters around the world. (3) the projected ocean for 2200. Robert. Princeton physics professor William Happer on why a large number of scientists don't believe that carbon dioxide is causing global warming. especially in belowground tissues. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. In conducting their analysis. citing the work of Short et al. and why has the issue become so vexing that the American Physical Society. Fred. Alarmism also offers an excuse for governments to raise taxes. With higher . Marine Geologist. and are ranked as one of the most ecologically and economically valuable biological systems on earth. accessed 7/5/13. and ―belowground tissues showed a similar response with NSC. However. Many other policy responses would have a negative return on investment. Chapter 7. which has complicated human life throughout history. (2) the projected ocean for 2100. They state Thalassia hemprichii ―is among the most widely-distributed seagrass species in an Indo-Pacific flora. And it is likely that more CO2 and the modest warming that may come with it will be an overall benefit to the planet. but it makes no sense at all to back expensive programs that divert resources from real needs and are based on alarming but untenable claims of "incontrovertible" evidence. Lysenko and his team lived very well.. AK) Writing as background for their study. and S.2). hemprichii. the authors collected intact vegetative plants of T.

and uptake of nitrate and phosphate were examined. ―Gracilaria lemaneiformis (Bory) Webervan Bosse is an economically important red seaweed that is cultivated on a large scale in China due to the quantity and quality of agar in its cell walls. the elevated CO2 treatment exhibited a 48 percent increase in the natural Pi treatment.. where populations have been devastated by algal proliferation and reduced column light transparency. but are limited by the current ambient carbon concentration in seawater.. (2010) note. it can enhance ―rhizome growth.) Okamura (Zou. which could contribute to growth. 2005) and stimulate the accumulation of nitrogen. 2011 (Craig D. AK) Eastburn et al. the extra stored NSC ―can be used to meet the carbon demands of plants during periods of low photosynthetic carbon fixation caused by severe environmental disturbance such as underwater light reduction. Fred. 2004)—they write. Gordillo et al. Zou. noting ―some species. algal photosynthetic rates in the natural Pi treatment were increased only by a non-significant 5 percent as a result of the 95 percent increase in the air‘s CO2 concentration. (2010). Nanao Island. ―the globally increasing CO2 may enhance seagrass survival in eutrophic coastal waters. and that it has thus been suggested to be ―an excellent species for alleviating coastal eutrophication in China (Fei.Gonzaga Debate Institute 178 Warming Core atmospheric CO2 concentrations. biomass production. and sudden death syndrome (SDS)—over the three-year period 2005–2007 under . soybean is the most widely planted dicot crop and has economic significance due to its wide variety of uses. plants were grown from thalli—collected at 0. ―colonization beyond current seagrass depth limits is possible.5 m depth from a farm located in Shen‘ao Bay. 1999. on the other hand—which they state ―efficiently uses HCO3 and whose photosynthesis is saturated at the current inorganic carbon concentration of natural seawater (Zou et al. Whatever strategy might be employed. ―the enhancement of growth could be due to the increased nitrogen uptake rates at elevated CO2 levels. which is equivalent to more than 24 million metric tons based on current production. 2006. In an attempt to begin to fill this knowledge void.. evaluated the individual and combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2. Eastburn et al.” 2011 Interim Report. 1991) and Hizikia fusiforme (Harv. 2001.. and additional CO2 did not increase growth rates beyond that point. Marine Geologist. The three Chinese researchers state ―elevated levels of CO2 in seawater increase the growth rate of many seaweed species despite the variety of ways in which carbon is utilized in these algae. and S. Zhou et al. which in their experiment were 40 percent in the natural Pi treatment. In the case of growth rate or biomass production. leading to more favorable habitat and conditions for associated invertebrate and fish species. Septoria brown spot. Chapter 7. Considering these important characteristics of this seaweed. Robert. and ―ocean acidification will stimulate seagrass biomass and productivity. and Singer. and ―enrichment of CO2 relieves this limitation and enhances growth. ―globally. NIPCC. This is particularly surprising given that ―worldwide yield losses to all soybean diseases combined are about 11% (Wrather et al.. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Carter. they note.. 2011. such as Porphyra yezoensis Ueda (Gao et al.. 2005. because the addition of the extra 29. who write.2 times ambient) on three economically important soybean diseases—downy mildew. 550 ppm) and ozone (O3. 2006).. In conducting their experiment. 1997). and in the high Pi treatment they were increased by approximately 41 percent. Shantou (China)—for 16 days in 3-L flasks of natural seawater maintained at either natural (0.5 µM) or high (30 µM) dissolved inorganic phosphorus (Pi) concentrations in contact with air of either 370 or 720 ppm CO2. but ―little to no work has evaluated the influence of future atmospheric conditions on soybean diseases.‘s graphical representations of their results. In addition. Also researching the potential effects of ocean acidification onmacroalgae were Xu et al. they state ―much attention has been paid to the biofiltration capacity of the species (Yang et al. accessed 7/5/13. 2004). while their photosynthetic rates. 1. “Climate Change Reconsidered. They also write. ranging from food and health products to printing inks and biodiesal. As best as can be determined from Xu et al. because ―high CO2 may enhan ce the activity of nitrate reductase (Mercado et al. and it ―may buffer the negative effects of transplant shock by increasing rhizome reserve capacity. 2005) are capable of using HCO3 . whereas in the high Pi treatment there was no CO2-induced increase in growth. on the other hand. these several marine macroalgae appear to be capable of benefiting greatly from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. the authors set out to examine how this aquatic plant might respond to elevated CO2. http://nipccreport.html. Director of the Scienceand Environmental Policy Project. CO2 Increases Soybean Disease Resistance Idso. flowering shoot production and vegetative proliferation. Regarding the results they obtained with Gracilaria lemaneiformis.org/reports/2011/2011report.5 µM Pi boosted the biomass production of the low-CO2 natural-Pi treatment by approximately 83 percent.

. they found ―elevated CO2 increased stand (pine plus all other species) biomass production every year from 1997 onwards with no trend over time. Robert. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. and in spite of the original belief of many scientists that low levels of soil nitrogen—especially an acute deficiency— would preclude any initial growth stimulation provided by atmospheric CO2 enrichment from long persisting. NIPCC. they state ―elevated CO2 alone or in combination with O3 significantly increased brown spot severity in all three years. ―isoflavonoids constitute a group of natural products derived from the phenylpropanoidpathway. the ongoing rise in the air‘s CO2 content will likely increase the ability of soybeans to withstand the attacks of various plant diseases in the years and decades to come. and ―the CO2-induced enhancement remained fairly consistent as the stand developed. they state ―the atmospheric treatments had no effect on the incidence of SDS. (2009) write. bushes. Marine Geologist. All of these were grown on a soil that Finzi and Schlesinger (2003) describe as being in ―a state of acute nutrient deficiency that can only be reversed with fertilization. this study is a long-term experiment designed to investigate the effects of an extra 200 ppm of atmospheric CO2 on the growth and development of a plantation of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) trees with an understory of various broadleaf species. Chapter 7. the team of nine researchers writes. coarse roots). Many researchers had long thought such fertility deficiency would stifle the ability of the extra aerial supply of CO2 to significantly stimulate the forest‘s growth on a continuing basis. The Brazilian researchers state these findings ―indicate changes in the pool of defense-related flavonoids in soybeans due to increased carbon availability.0 times in the activity of enzymes related to their biosynthetic routes. which is abundant in soybeans. (2010). shrubs.html. Fred. with no sign of it even beginning to taper off. that elevated CO2 should provide a net benefit to soybean productivity throughout the world. starting with the study of McCarthy et al. On the other hand. Kretzschmar et al. In addition. we consider the case of natural and plantation-type forests. Carter. Liquidambar styraciflua. They did this in a glasshouse where they grew soybeans from seed for a period of nine days in large. The five researchers found ―elevated CO2 alone or in combination with O3 significantly reduced downy mildew disease severity by 39–66% across the three years of the study. beginning with studies of the latter type.5–3. starting in 1997 and continuing every year thereafter. and shrubs that constitute the Duke Forest has continued to maintain the extra CO2enabled vitality it exhibited right from the start of the study. luteolin by 89% and apigenin by 238%) with a concomitant increase of 1. ―net primary productivity *NPP+ for pines. “Climate Change Reconsidered. branches. is one of the major defense mechanisms implicated in soybean resistance. the glyceollins. as they describe it. Or to put it more simply. Director of the Scienceand Environmental Policy Project. The results of this protocol indicated ―elevated CO2 increased pine biomass production. Finally. Working with data for the years 1996–2004.” 2011 Interim Report. Further extending the results of . coumestrol by 93%. and they state ―the inducible accumulation of low molecular weight antimicrobial pterocarpan phytoalexins. well-watered pots placed within opentop chambers that were maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 380 or 760 ppm. they ―evaluated the effect of an elevated CO2 atmosphere on the production of soybean defensive secondary chemicals induced by nitric oxide and a fungal elicitor. fine roots and reproductive structures. and S.org/reports/2011/2011report. including Liriodendron tulipifera. on balance. 2011. accessed 7/5/13.Gonzaga Debate Institute 179 Warming Core natural field conditions at the soybean free-air CO2enrichment (SoyFACE) facility on the campus of the University of Illinois (USA). AK) Moving up from individual species and small groups of plants to the ecosystem scale.Ulmus alata.genistein by 93%. but ―the increase was small in magnitude. Thus. hardwoods and the entire stand was calculated as the sum of the production of coarse wood (stems. and Singer. while they examined changes in the production of phytoalexins and some of their precursors. plus various other trees. leaf litter (lagged for pines). Conducted at the Duke Forest Free-Air CO2Enrichment (FACE) facility. while the average yearly increase in NPP caused by the approximate 54 percent increase in the air‘s CO2 content was 28 percent. and Cornus florida. as its concentration continues to rise in the years and decades to come. In the introduction to another soybean study. Thus. these findings thus suggest. This work revealed that elevated CO2 ―resulted in an increase of intermediates and diverted end products (daidzein by 127%. http://nipccreport. in their study. the suite of trees. Taken in their entirety. Elevated CO2 Levels Key to Stronger Forests Idso. and vines. where the air around groups of trees has been experimentally enriched with CO2. 2011 (Craig D. which may differentially alter the responsiveness of soybean plants to pathogens in CO2 atmospheric concentrations such as those predicted for future decades. Acer rubrum.

2006) that are referred to as ―dark septate rootendophytic (DSE) fungi. permit long-distance dispersal and contribute to food webs. regardless of O3 concentration. Alberton et al. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. In expanding on this statement. Robert. Among many other things. The scientists found total mean sporocarp biomass ―was generally lowest under elevated O3 with ambient CO2. particularly given that the extra 200 ppm of CO2 supplied to the air surrounding the CO2-enriched trees represented only about a 55 percent increase over ambient conditions. CO2 key to the growth of fungi –takes out your impact – micro-organisms check for any temperature increases – the risk of CO2 being beneficial outweighs any of your warming scenarios Idso. Wisconsin. ―overall. the effect of elevated CO2 belowground shows no sign of diminishing. and we need to know how these important processes will be affected by continued increases in the concentrations of these two trace constituents of the atmosphere. the four researchers note ―if progressive nitrogen limitation were occurring in this system... and Singer. ―in fact there is little evidence from estimates of aboveground or total net primary productivity in the replicated Duke experiment that progressive nitrogen limitation is occurring there or at other forest FACE experiments. Jackson et al.org/reports/2011/2011report. and S. but they state. (2010) write. because. 2011 (Craig D. Regarding coarse roots having diameters greater than 2 mm and extending to a soil depth of 32 cm. which is astounding. Consequently. They also found ―a complete elimination of O3 effects on sporocarp production when [extra+ CO2 was added. the ongoing rise in the atmosphere‘s CO2 content appears destined to enhance the genetic recombination and long-distance dispersal of the ectomycorrhizal fungi that form symbiotic relationships with the roots of aspen and birch trees. report ―on average. state. in their words. even ―after more than a decade of manipulation of the air‘s CO2 content. a ―unique opportunity to examine the effects of both elevated CO2 and O3 on a forested ecosystem. fine-root biomass in the top 15 cm of soil increased by 24%. We calculate from the graphical representation of their results that the coarse-root biomass was fully 130 percent greater. Consequently. with ―most species belonging to the Leotiomycetes (Kernaghan et al. Wang et al. AK) Andrew and Lilleskov (2009) studied sporocarps (the reproductive structures of fungi). Carter. which provided. http://nipccreport. And they state they ―expect that the responses seen in the present study were conservative compared to those expected under regional to global changes in CO2 and O3. they report. seeking to determine ―which. Sieber and Grunig. Chapter 7. The examination was conducted during years four through seven of the aspen and aspen-birch forests‘ exposures to ambient and enriched concentrations of the two gases: CO2 (350 and 550 ppm) and O3 (33–67 and 50-–00 ppb).Gonzaga Debate Institute 180 Warming Core the Duke Forest FACE study were Jackson et al.html. in elevated CO2. 2006). (2007). In another study dealing with soil fungi. after which they present a synthesis of these and other results obtained from 1996 through 2008. citing in this regard—with respect to the latter portion of their statement—the report of Finzi et al. accessed 7/5/13. averaging ~30% at high CO2. 2011. To study these . and in recent years the fine-root biomass increase ―grew stronger. and it ―was greatest under elevated CO2. which can be significant carbon sinks for the ectomycorrhizal fungi that develop symbiotic relationships with plants by forming sheaths around their root tips. ambient CO2 plots . where they are the last sinks for carbon in the long and winding pathway that begins at the source of carbon assimilation in plant leaves. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. ―biomass sampled in 2008 was twice as great in elevated CO2. Fred. In the concluding sentence of their paper‘s abstract. ―roots of a very large number of plant species are regularly colonized by a group of ascomycete fungi with usually dark-pigmented (melanized) septate hyphae (Mandyam and Jumpponen. who describe new belowground data they obtained there. there is very good reason to believe the ―aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will continue to benefit Earth‘s forests significantly as long as the atmosphere‘s CO2 concentration continues to rise. the two researchers evaluated sporocarp biomass for a period of four years at the Aspen free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) site near Rhinelander. (2009). ―sporocarps facilitate genetic recombination. 2003. The researchers note ―it is critical to understand how ectomycorrhizal fungal sporocarpsare affected by elevated CO2 and ozone. thereby positively contributing to various food webs that will be found within aspen and aspenbirch forests of the future.” 2011 Interim Report. Accordingly. they continue. NIPCC. “Climate Change Reconsidered.. 2005. we would expect differences in productivity to diminish for trees in the elevated vs. Marine Geologist. if any. Jackson et al. variables show evidence for a decrease in their response to atmospheric CO2 during that time frame. by itself or in combination with rising ozone concentrations.

Schulz and Boyle. plus the best of the great majority of plant growth-promoting microorganisms that benefit them biochemically. atmospheric CO2 enrichment should bring out the best of Earth‘s plants. state ―the effects of increased temperature on beneficial plant-associated microorganisms were more variable. Temperature effects. In fact. In concluding. as well as for plant growthpromoting bacteria and the more specialized plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria. which. ―for plant growthpromoting fungi such asarbuscular mycorrhizae. ―in most cases. Brundrett. They found ―across all plants (DSE-inoculated and control plants) under elevated CO2. In addition. 2006). the Brazilian and Dutch scientists write. were more of a wash. Alberton et al. as Compant et al. plant-associated microorganisms had a beneficial effect on plants under elevated CO2. respectively. they report ―numerous studies indicated that plant growth promoting microorganisms (both bacteria and fungi) positively affected plants subjected to drought stress. In addition. DSE fungi even reduced nitrogen content of the pine seedlings. But they also emphasize that ―surprisingly. positive and neutral. shoot and root biomass increased significantly by 21% and 19%. ―a potential mechanism for the increase of plant biomass even when plant nutrient uptake decreases is the production of phytohormones by DSE fungi. shoot nitrogen concentration was 57% lower under elevated CO2. some of which ―are known to support plant growth and to increase plant tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses (Bent. destructively harvesting some of the seedlings at the 98-day point of the experiment and the rest of them at the experiment‘s conclusion. in their words. note the stress of drought is disadvantageous for nearly all terrestrial vegetation. reviewed the results of 135 studies that investigated the effects of CO2 and changes in various climatic factors on ―beneficial microorganisms and their interactions with host plants. 2000). In another study of note. To explain how that happened. thus acknowledge their study ―did not suggest a role for DSE fungi in increased nutrient uptake. But they also found ―the effects on plant growth-promoting bacteria and endophytic fungi were more variable. respectively). Welbaum et al. Compant et al. they emphasize that ―under elevated CO2. they indicate ―on average. Compant et al. 2009). (2010) write. continued atmospheric CO2 enrichment should prove to be a huge benefit to plants by directly enhancing their growth rates and water use efficiencies. biofertilizers and/or phytostimulators in agriculture (Vessey. Consequently. and in order to determine how beneficial plant growth-promoting microorganisms might be affected by continued increases in the air‘s CO2 content and by possible concomitant changes in climate. as they put it. and ―elevated CO2 decreased root nitrogen concentration on average by 16%. the three researchers grew Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) plants from seed for 125 days in Petri dishes—both with and without inoculation with one of seven different species/strains of DSE fungi—within controlled environment chambers maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 350 or 700 ppm. 2009). 2007). This is the case. 2004) or as degrading microorganisms in phytoremediation applications (Denton. on the other hand. elevated CO2 led to increases in both above-ground and below-ground plant biomass... ―is generally in agreement with meta-analyses performed by Treseder (2004) and by Alberton et al. even under reduced nitrogen availability. further demonstrating that low levels of soil nitrogen availability need not be an insurmountable impediment to significant CO2-induced increases in plant growth and development. Many members of the first two categories. And under the best of climatic conditions. they note. (2005).Gonzaga Debate Institute 181 Warming Core fungi. ―virtually all land plant taxa investigated have well-established symbioses with a large variety of microorganisms (Nicolson. as long as the air‘s CO2 content continues to rise. with ―higher values over the final four weeks (increases of 40% and 30% for shoots and roots. on the other hand. while others ―enter the root system of their hosts and enhance their beneficial effects with an endophytic lifestyle (Stone et al. 2005. Nevertheless. They observe that ―earlier authors noted that DSE fungi enhance plant growth by producing phytohormones or inducing host hormone production without any apparent facilitation of host nutrient uptake or stimulation of host nutrient metabolism (Addy et al. 1967. Compant et al. Many of these microorganisms colonize the rhizosphere (Lugtenberg andKamilova. and when they might be negative. .. ―are applied as biocontrol agents. 2005). relative to ambient. ectomycorrhizae and other endophytic fungi. would appear to be no more negative than they are positive in a warming world. but plant growth-promoting microorganisms should help land plants overcome this potentially negative aspect of future climate change. Temperature effects. and ―negative effects were equally common and varied considerably with the study system and the temperature range investigated. They found ―the majority of studies showed that elevated CO2 had a positive influence on the abundance of arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi. they state. 2003.

. and a lot more usurpation (using words employed by climate alarmists the world over) will likely be catastrophically deadly to many of them. Keith.7 by the year 2050. Number 8: 21. Will Farming Destroy Wild Nature? APRIL 13TH 2005 http://www. Already.co2science. 2002.by determined that the consequent shortfall in farm production could be overcome . reported just four days later in the pages of Science. (2001). who report that "evidence from a range of taxa in developing countries suggests that high-yield farming may allow more species to persist. They also evaluated the growth-enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on these plants and made similar yield projections based on the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration likely to occur by that future date. respectively).. and have initiated a major extinction event. think of doubling those figures. have manufactured and released globally significant quantities of pesticides. they identified the plants that currently supply 95% of the world's food needs and projected historical trends in the productivities of these crops 50 years into the future. the group of ten respected researchers concluded that the task of meeting the doubled global food demand they calculated to exist in the year 2050 will likely exact an environmental toll that "may rival climate change in environmental and societal impacts. This is also the conclusion of Green et al. . So how does one solve the problem and keep from driving innumerable species to extinction (using more words that climate alarmists relish) and still feed the masses of humanity that will inhabit the planet a mere 45 years hence? The answer is simple: one has to raise more food without appreciably increasing the amounts of land and water used to do it. In an analysis of the global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion that will likely occur over the next 50 years. which was based upon projected increases in population and concomitant advances in technological expertise." Green et al." What are the specific problems? For starters. February 2001. which suggests we may be approaching the upper limits of the benefits to be derived from the types of technology that served us so well over the last four decades of the 20th century. a little more taking of land by agriculture will likely be devastating to several species of birds. food demand will devastate wild nature.php) In an article in Science entitled "Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature." Clearly." Now. Idso squared. Vice president of CO2 Science. report that annual growth in yield is now higher in the developing world than it is in the developed world. in fact. who developed a supply-anddemand scenario for food in the year 2050. In fact. the scale of the threat posed by agriculture is even greater for Near-Threatened species (57% and 33% of threats. They begin by noting that "farming (including conversion to farmland and its intensifying use) is the single biggest source of threat to bird species listed as Threatened (accounting for 37% of threats) and is already substantially more important for species in developing countries than those in developed countries (40% and 24% of threats.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 182 2NC – UQ Wall Uniqueness Debate – Group It The next agricultural revolution is underway." The four scientists demonstrate the immediacy of the problem by discussing the relationship between farming and birds. Tilman and his colleagues note that "humans currently appropriate more than a third of the production of terrestrial ecosystems and about half of usable freshwaters. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. ‘01 (Craig and Keith. but that world food production would be only 37% greater. The Most Important Global Change. Sherwood. respectively). This work indicated that world population would be 51% greater in the year 2050 than it was in 1998. have doubled terrestrial nitrogen supply and phosphorus liberation.php) It thus behooves us to seriously consider the findings of Tilman et al. 1996) without usurping for agriculture all the land that is currently available to what they call "wild nature. when global food production outstripped population growth and kept us largely ahead of the hunger curve. if its enhanced productivity were solely a consequence of anticipated improvements in agricultural technology and expertise. at least where political unrest did not keep food from reaching the tables of those who needed it.org/articles/V8/N15/EDIT. do even more.org/articles/V4/N8/EDIT. Agricultural demand will triple by 2050—only increased CO2 emissions can solve Idso Cubed 5 (Craig. Specifically.co2science. Volume 4. http://www. Green et al." and by reporting that "for developing and developed countries alike. However. for the scientists calculate global nitrogen fertilization and pesticide production will likely rise by a factor of 2. Bongaarts. and numerous other animals as well. (2005) address a looming problem of incredible proportions and significance: how to meet the two.but the additional benefits anticipated to accrue from the aerial fertilization effect of the expected rise in the air's CO2 content. assuming no Kyoto-style cutbacks in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.to three-fold increase in food demand that will exist by 2050 (Tilman et al." But will the high-yield farming we are capable of developing in the coming years be high enough to keep the loss of wild nature's land at an acceptable minimum? This question was addressed by Idso and Idso (2000). president of CO2 Science. they just barely . Absent CO2. which Leo and Gergen had obviously not the advantage of seeing when they composed their essays. The problem is that it is getting more and more difficult to do so.

When the satellite data zooms in. Financial Post. ‘01 (Craig and Keith. They deny it. then sustain animal life. Number 8: 21. June 7. it finds that each square metre of land. which two phenomena enable earth's vegetation to produce considerably more food per unit of water used in the food production process. Plants take the carbon from CO2 to bulk themselves up — carbon is the building block of life — and release the oxygen. The extent and diversity of plant and animal life have both increased substantially during the past half-century.CO2 increases total global biodiversity—NASA study. Thousands of studies prove. and other more recent ones. CO2 is nature’s fertilizer.co2science. Why the increase? Their 2004 study. Solomon. Don Mills. Indeed. And they try to reverse it. February 2001. Empirically proven -. Idso squared. As summarized in a report last month. bathing the biota with its life-giving nutrients.2%. the Earth as a whole became more bountiful a whopping 6. 2. in fact. Literally thousands of laboratory and field experiments . by About 25% of the Earth’s vegetated landmass — almost 110 million square kilometres — enjoyed significant increases and only 7% showed significant declines.have verified this fact beyond any doubt whatsoever. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. which are thereby also enhanced. this atmospheric CO2-derived blessing is as sure as death and taxes and as dependable as a mother's love. They found that over a period of almost two decades. now produces almost 500 grams of greenery per year. a gas indispensable to plant life. The Most Important Global Change. scientists who vouched for the benefits of CO2: “Higher CO2 enables plants to grow faster and larger and to live in drier climates. on average. In Praise of CO2. 2008 http://wattsupwiththat. ‘08 (Lawrence.000 U. released along with a petition signed by 32. But what do the climate-alarmist ideologues do about it? They spurn it. which along with the plants.” . Plants provide food for animals. CO2 fertilization increases agriculture output while reducing water use – increases plant yields while utilizing water more efficiently.and that is no exaggeration . And they do it to the detriment of all mankind. point to the warming of the planet and the presence of CO2.org/articles/V4/N8/EDIT.php) But how would allowing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to take their natural course help to ameliorate future hunger? The answer resides in the fact that elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 tend to reduce plant transpiration while simultaneously enhancing plant photosynthesis. Volume 4. http://www.com/2008/06/08/surprise-earths-biosphere-is-booming-co2-the-cause/) The results surprised Steven Running of the University of Montana and Ramakrishna Nemani of NASA.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 183 2NC – CO2 Good Wall 1. scientists involved in analyzing the NASA satellite data. S.

"Their efforts to scare the world over global warming seems not to have worked. while decreasing the amount of water they lose through evaporation by an equal amount. Exchange Morning Post 8 (An intelligent discussion about climate change. open discussion about climate issues.A And they’re a leading and respected group in the global warming debate. was going for his Ph. In a CFACT report on the Greenhouse Effect. ICSC coalition recognizes the Idso’s as qualified experts.climatescienceinternational. making them more productive and drought resistant. and botany in the past So it makes sense that the 56th note of Robinson’s paper cites Idso about how increases in carbon dioxide can benefit the growth of plants... PhD. Ch5) In spite of the world's fear of carbon dioxide.org/index. and he served as an adjunct professor of geology. science shows that a rise in CO2.crossroad. Privilege debate over ad homs. http://www. it is done in a reasonable fashion. President. http://www. geography. ‘08 (Berit.blogspot. Idso. 2008 “Saving the Earth”. C. his focus was on soil sciences while his minor was meteorology.S.to/Books/BraveNewSchools/5 -Earth.html) The International Climate Science Coalition is an association of scientists. all well-trained in science and technology or climate change-related economics and policy. economists and energy and policy experts working to promote better public understanding of climate change. ICSC 8 (International Climate Science Coalition. not just trees. A. have allowed their names to be listed as endorsing the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change: … Sherwood B. the major "greenhouse gas". "Environmentalists are dismayed.D. such as Sherwood B. ‘05 (Stuart. Sherwood B. When Idso. Idso.exchangemagazine. http://www. The Idso’s are qualified. April 23rd."[35] (Notice. Managing Director at The Dillard Anderson Group. Idso. Arizona. U. ‘06 . Dr.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 184 2NC – Quals Not a reason to reject – Even if they’re unqualified. ICSC is committed to providing a highly credible alternative to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) thereby fostering a more rational. July 1. explains that "a simple doubling of the air's CO2 concentration." they wrote in an April 1995 issue. President Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. the aff should be able to provide warranted arguments to disprove our claims. for example. increases the productivity of essentially all plants by about one-third.) The editors of The Economist seems to agree. Exchange. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. All sides of the climate debate receive funding from interested parties and Idso reached and published his conclusion before and funding controversy arose.com/morningpost/2008/week17/Wednesday/0423016. Some areas of the world would benefit from a warmer climate”. all green plants. use CO2 for photosynthesis. would help food production. February 8..com/2005/07/whenhot-tempers-not-temperatures. Scholastic background Hayashi.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=62&Itemid=1) QUALIFIED ENDORSERS NOT AT CONFERENCE: The following individuals. These effects essentially double the water use efficiencies of all plants.html) When Robinson’s paper cites a scientist who is not a climatologist. Kjos.htm. Idso. As far as professional credentials go. Tempe. “When Hot Tempers – Not Hot Temperatures – Create a Harsh Climate” available at http://50thstar. The Economist confirms quals.. President of the Institute for Biospheric Research. Author of “Brave new schools”. Idso is qualified to make that assessment. ellipse removes the alphabetical listing of other qualified scientists. B.

it should be readily evident that my views about the potential impacts of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 concentration from that time until now have never been influenced in even the slightest degree by anything other than what has appeared in the scientific literature. And my sons are in their father's image. In my case. What is more.org/articles/V9/N39/EDIT. 1980). 1982. . “What Motivates the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change?” September 27th 2006. or probably anyone else. Likewise. each researcher's case is unique.all of which happened well before I. So how does one differentiate between them? Clearly. which demonstrates that I studied and wrote about many of the topics we currently address on our website a full quarter-century ago in a host of different peer-reviewed scientific journals . Hence. had ever even contemplated doing what we now do and actually receiving funds to sustain the effort.Gonzaga Debate Institute 185 Warming Core (Sherwood. I feel that a significant indication of what motivates me to do what I do can be gleaned from my publication record.co2science. which largely began with the publication of one of my early contributions to the topic (Idso. there are many scientists on both sides of the climate change debate who receive funds from people that admire their work and who continue to maintain their intellectual and moral integrity.as well as in a couple of books (Idso. President Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. as I mentioned earlier. http://www.php) In this regard. many of these things occurred well before there was any significant controversy over the climate change issue. there are probably some on both sides of the controversy who do otherwise. 1989) that I selfpublished and for which I personally paid the publication costs .

and that ―accurate predictions of rice yield and of the ability of rice crops to adapt to high CO2 environments are therefore crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on the future food supply.. that ―the demand for rice production will continue to increase in the coming decades.9 percent. http://nipccreport.000 ppm CO2 were.879 percent under the high-light regime. Yang et al. and 7. They focused on the genus Cymbidium. They further state that legumes—of which pigeon peas are an important example—―have the potential to maximize the benefit of elevated CO2 by matching stimulated photosynthesis with increased N2 fixation. Similarly. Marine Geologist. 3. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project.1%. and S. ―total biomass recorded an improvement of 91.000 ppm CO2 were 271 percent and 537 percent under the low-light regime and 332 percent and 631 percent under the high-light regime. grain yield 150. Relative to plants grown in vitro in ambient air.5 percent. (2010) note grain legumes ―provide much needed nutritional security in the form of proteins to the predominant vegetarian populations of India and also the world.Turning from ornamental plants to food crops. AK) We begin our review of atmospheric CO2 enrichment effects on Earth‘s vegetation with a consideration of C3 plants— those in which the enzyme RuBisCO is involved in the uptake of CO2 and the subsequent photosynthetic process.956 percent under the low-light regime and 249 percent and 1. according to the team of nine Indian scientists.¶ . which they obtained from a mass of protocorm-like bodies they derived from shoot-tip culture. that in the higher of the two CO2 concentrations.html. They also found ―the major contributing components for improved grain yield under elevated CO2 were number of pods. ―super-elevated CO2 enrichment of in vitro-cultured Cymbidium could positively affect the efficiency and quality of commercial production of clonal orchid plantlets. illustrate the importance of pigeon peas for ―sustained food with nutritional security under a climate change scenario. These multiple positive findings.000. (2010). 2011. the percent increases in shoot and root dry weight due to enriching the air in which the plants grew by 3. India within open-top chambers maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 370 or 700 ppm. In fact.000 ppm CO2 were 244 percent and 2.) from seed to maturity outdoors at Hyderabad. and Singer. In much the same vein. They then harvested the plants and measured pertinent productivity parameters.1% and fodder yield 67. Vanaja et al. possessing two to three leaves.578 percent under the low-light regime and 310 percent and 1. 119. which results in its incorporation into a 3-carbon compound—starting with the study of Norikane et al. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. accessed 7/5/13.7% over ambient values. they grew pigeon peas (Cajanus cajan L. with these items exhibiting increases of 97. Chapter 7. They grew them in vitro on a modified Vacin and Went medium in air augmented with either 0.000 ppm CO2 were 223 percent and 436 percent under the low-light regime and 279 percent and 469 percent under the high-light regime.3%. (2009) declared.” 2011 Interim Report. Millsp. the Japanese scientists concluded. They then transferred the plants to ex vitro culture for 30 more days. number of seeds and test weight. while corresponding increases for the plants grown in air enriched with an extra 10. 216 percent and 1. which comprises about 50 species distributed throughout tropical and subtropical Asia and Oceania. respectively. while corresponding increases for the plants grown in air enriched with an extra 10. Robert. which they say was due to the crop‘s ―improved pod set and seed yield under enhanced CO2 concentration. This work revealed. ―rice is unequivocally one of the most important food crops that feed the largest proportion of the world‘s population.591 percent under the high-light regime. Africa and Latin America. Fred. according to the scientists from India‘s Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture.org/reports/2011/2011report. respectively. they forcefully state—and rightly— that ―there is a pressing need to identify genotypes which could optimize harvestable yield as atmospheric CO2 increases . NIPCC. especially in the major rice-consuming countries of Asia.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 186 CO2 Good – Helps C3 and C4 Plants C3 Plants benefit from an increase in CO2¶ Idso. they found there was ―a significant positive increase of harvest index at elevated CO2 with an increment of 30. citing Rogers et al.000 ppm CO2 under two photosynthetic photon flux densities (either 45 or 75 µmol m -1 s -1 ) provided by cold cathode fluorescent lamps for a period of 90 days. Carter. Consequently.2 percent. “Climate Change Reconsidered. 2011 (Craig D. (2009). Therefore.‘ a type of orchid. or 10. in the ex vitro experiment. The four researchers worked with shoots of Music Hour ‗Maria. the percent increases in shoot and root dry weight due to enriching the air in which the plants grew by 3. In addition.

by 32% in 2050 and by 47% in 2080. and Singer. Ghannoum et al. In addition. accessed 7/5/13.0°C higher than outside ambient temperature. compared with plants grown at [the] ambient CO2/near-ambient temperature combination. http://nipccreport. ―with the worldwide continued increase in demand for sugarcane as a source of food and biofuel. they add that significant ―improvements in stem sucrose and biomass through classical breeding and/or new biotechnology may also be achieved. they indicate the emerging ―use of sugarcane as a source for biofuel production has been highly recognized.sugarcane is key for world health Idso. including . and would perform better in sucrose production. This bodes well for tropical-region agriculture. they write. which considers ―the possible impacts caused by changes in temperature. who hold joint appointments in the Agronomy Department of the University of Florida (USA). precipitation. Carter.html. ―studies to identify the cultivars with high efficiency in water use and stem sucrose production under future changes in CO2 and climate are of great importance and should be initiated and explored. On a global basis. (1997). hence. 1999).. Gouvea et al. Robert. “Climate Change Reconsidered. Based on their calculations.” 2011 Interim Report. especially if global air temperatures rise along with it? Historically. Vu and Allen write. especially with respect to the most important measure of sugarcane‘s e conomic value: stem juice production. C4 crops have been thought to be relatively unresponsive to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. So what will happen to the productivity of this important crop as the air‘s CO2 content continues its upward climb. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. 2008). as they possess a CO2-concentrating mechanism that allows them to achieve a greater photosynthetic capacity than C3 plants at the current atmospheric CO2 concentration. 2011 (Craig D. determined ―potential productivity will increase by 15% in relation to the present condition in 2020.to 3-fold higher in stem soluble solids than those at [the] ambient CO2/near-ambient temperature combination. as well as those provided by the possibility of still higher air temperatures to come. and Brown et al. Consequently. and they state these increases were even greater under the combination of doubled CO2 and high temperature. in the case of sugarcane. and. for example. as well as technological advances. 2001). leaf dry weight. Thus. 84% and 124% greater leaf area. and ―actual productivity will increase by 12% in relation to the present condition in 2020. simple reasoning might suggest C4 plants may be little benefited. with ―up to 75% of the world sugar production provided by sugarcane (De Souza et al. ―On a main stem basis. sorghum and sugarcane are the most agriculturally important monocots in terms of production (Brown. millet. as Vu and Allen conclude. especially. Fred. and they note ―in many tropical regions. they state. simple reasoning would be incorrect. yet ―their ecological and economic significance is substantial. The two researchers with the USDA‘s Agricultural Research Service. (1997).5°C (near ambient) and 6. and then actual productivity. Also studying sugarcane. In addition. utilize water more efficiently. leaf dry weight. NIPCC. they write. grew two cultivars of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) for a period of three months in paired-companion. by 33% in 2050 and by 47% in 2080. They further indicate expected technological advances. and S. ―leaf area. stem dry weight and stem juice volume. after which they measured several different plant properties. ―sugarcane grown under predicted rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature in the future may use less water. They first calculated potential productivity. based on future A1B climatic scenarios presented in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. (2009) used the agrometeorological model of Doorenbos and Kassam(1994) ―to estimate sugarcane yield in tropical southern Brazil. citing Goldenberg (2007). sunshine hours and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. among [which] maize.. AK)Moving on to C4 plants—where the enzyme PEP carboxylase allows CO2 to be taken in very quickly and delivered directly to RuBisCO for photosynthetic incorporation into a 4-carbon compound—Vu and Allen (2009) note such vegetation represents ―fewer than 4% of all angiosperm species. which additionally accounts for the yield-reducing effects of water stress. Marine Geologist. However.. sunlit greenhouses under daytime CO2 concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm and air temperatures of 1. (2005). ―plants grown at *the+ doubled CO2/high temperature combination were 2. Last. respectively.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 187 C4 plants also benefit. stem dry weight and stem juice volume were increased by growth at doubled CO2 *as well as at] high temperature. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.org/reports/2011/2011report. Gouvea et al. as they note. Working hand-in-hand with the benefits provided by the ongoing rise in the air‘s CO2 content. citing Cerling et al. in a CO2-enriched and warmer world of the future. therefore. 26%. Chapter 7. ―up to onethird of terrestrial productivity is provided by C4 plants. we may yet be able to meet the increasing food needs of our expanding numbers without taking vast amounts of land and freshwater resources from Earth‘s natural ecosystems. 2011. the food source is primarily based on C4 crops. as the research of Vu and Allen demonstrates. with plants grown under these conditions averaging ―50%. particularly at high growth temperatures (Matsuoka et al. temperature gradient. if at all.

this modeling exercise suggests there will be. ―a beneficial effect of forecasted climate changes on sugarcane productivity. will account for 35 percent of the yield gains in 2020. Consequently. in the words of the four researchers.Gonzaga Debate Institute 188 Warming Core the development of new varieties and best-management practices. and 61 percent in 2080. due to the expected increases in temperature and CO2 concentration. . and in spite of the gloomy prognostications of the IPCC and its followers. 51 percent in 2050.

who write.10. 1991) and Hizikia fusiforme (Harv. and uptake of nitrate and phosphate were examined. hemprichii from Xincun Bay of Hainan Island.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 189 CO2 Good – Helps Microalgae Warming is Key to Macroalgae Development Idso. Shantou (China)—for 16 days in 3-L flasks of natural seawater maintained at either natural (0... citing the work of Beer et al. In conducting their experiment. dominating in many mixed meadows. they note. and Singer. Carter.50.) Okamura (Zou. and in the high Pi treatment they were increased by approximately 41 percent. Considering these important characteristics of this seaweed. ―the globally increasing CO2 may enhance seagrass survival in eutrophic coastal waters. NIPCC. 2011 (Craig D. The three Chinese researchers state ―elevated levels of CO2 in seawater increase the growth rate of many seaweed species despite the variety of ways in which carbon is utilized in these algae. and (4) the ocean characteristic of ―an extreme beyond the current predictions (a hundredfold increase in free CO2. especially in belowground tissues. As best as can be determined from Xu et al. biomass production. ―colonization beyond current seagrass depth limits is possible. and it ―may buffer the negative effects of transplant shock by increasing rhizome reserve capacity. with a pH of 6. “Climate Change Reconsidered. 2005) are capable of using HCO3 . noting ―some species. Marine Geologist. (2007). The Chinese scientists identify several implications of their findings that ―CO2 enrichment enhances photosynthetic rate. Nanao Island. Jiang et al. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. with a pH of 7.. whereas in the high Pi treatment there was no CO2-induced increase in growth.5 m depth from a farm located in Shen‘ao Bay. Also researching the potential effects of ocean acidification on macroalgae were Xu et al. http://nipccreport. flowering shoot production and vegetative proliferation. In conducting their analysis. (3) the projected ocean for 2200. hemprichii. 2006. Southern China. 2004). growth rate and NSC concentrations of T.” 2011 Interim Report. and that it has thus been suggested to be ―an excellent species for alleviating coastal eutrophication in China (Fei. In the case of growth rate or biomass production. (2) the projected ocean for 2100. and ―ocean acidification will stimulate seagrass biomass and productivity. Chapter 7. but are limited by the current ambient carbon concentration in seawater. which they transported to the laboratory and cultured in flow through seawater aquaria bubbled with four different concentrations of CO2 representative of (1) the present global ocean. because the addition of the extra 29.. and ―enrichment of CO2 relieves this limitation and enhances growth. The three researchers report the ―leaf growth rate of CO2enriched plants was significantly higher than that in the unenriched treatment. and additional CO2 did not increase growth rates beyond that point. 2011. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. 2006). while their photosynthetic rates. (2006).5 µM) or high (30 µM) dissolved inorganic phosphorus (Pi) concentrations in contact with air of either 370 or 720 ppm CO2.html. with a pH of 8. increased strongly with elevated CO2. the authors set out to examine how this aquatic plant might respond to elevated CO2. ―Gracilaria lemaneiformis (Bory) Webervan Bosse is an economically important red seaweed that is cultivated on a large scale in China due to the quantity and quality of agar in its cell walls. Robert. the elevated CO2 treatment exhibited a 48 percent increase in the natural Pi treatment. citing the work of Short et al. Zhou et al. that ―nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) of T. Regarding . They state Thalassia hemprichii ―is among the most widely-distributed seagrass species in an Indo-Pacific flora. on the other hand. (2010) note ―seagrasses are flowering plants that thrive in shallow oceanic and estuarine waters around the world. accessed 7/5/13. They also write. plants were grown from thalli—collected at 0. 2005. and ―belowground tissues showed a similar response with NSC. with a pH of 7.‘s graphical representations of their results. Fred. and S. such as Porphyra yezoensis Ueda (Gao et al. leading to more favorable habitat and conditions for associated invertebrate and fish species. the extra stored NSC ―can be used to meet the carbon demands of plants during periods of low photosynthetic carbon fixation caused by severe environmental disturbance such as underwater light reduction. and are ranked as one of the most ecologically and economically valuable biological systems on earth. (2010).org/reports/2011/2011report. the authors collected intact vegetative plants of T.75.2).5 µM Pi boosted the biomass production of the low-CO2 natural-Pi treatment by approximately 83 percent. they state ―much attention has been paid to the biofiltration capacity of the species (Yang et al. In addition. it can enhance ―rhizome growth. hemprichii. where populations have been devastated by algal proliferation and reduced column light transparency. With higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AK) Writing as background for their study. algal photosynthetic rates in the natural Pi treatment were increased only by a non-significant 5 percent as a result of the 95 percent increase in the air‘s CO2 concentration.

.. because ―high CO2 may enhance the activity of nitrate reductase (Mercado et al. 2001. 1999. 2004)—they write.Gonzaga Debate Institute 190 Warming Core the results they obtained with Gracilaria lemaneiformis. which could contribute to growth. on the other hand—which they state ―efficiently uses HCO3 and whose photosynthesis is saturated at the current inorganic carbon concentration of natural seawater (Zou et al. ―the enhancement of growth could be due to the increased nitrogen uptake rates at elevated CO2 levels. Gordillo et al.. Whatever strategy might be employed. 2005) and stimulate the accumulation of nitrogen. Zou. which in their experiment were 40 percent in the natural Pi treatment. . these several marine macroalgae appear to be capable of benefiting greatly from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

and S. The five researchers found ―elevated CO2 alone or in combination with O3 significantly reduced downy mildew disease severity by 39–66% across the three years of the study. Finally. and they state ―the inducible accumulation of low molecular weight antimicrobial pterocarpan phytoalexins. The Brazilian researchers state these findings ―indicate changes in the pool of defense-related flavonoids in soybeans due to increased carbon availability.” 2011 Interim Report.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 191 CO2 Good – Helps Soybeans CO2 Increases Soybean Disease Resistance Idso. they ―evaluated the effect of an elevated CO2 atmosphere on the production of soybean defensive secondary chemicals induced by nitric oxide and a fungal elicitor. 550 ppm) and ozone (O3..2 times ambient) on three economically important soybean diseases —downy mildew. coumestrol by 93%. as they describe it. ―globally. 2011. Thus.5–3. ―isoflavonoids constitute a group of natural products derived from the phenylpropanoidpathway. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. these findings thus suggest. and sudden death syndrome (SDS)—over the three-year period 2005–2007 under natural field conditions at the soybean free-air CO2enrichment (SoyFACE) facility on the campus of the University of Illinois (USA). Fred. evaluated the individual and combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2. Septoria brown spot. Marine Geologist. which is abundant in soybeans. they state ―the atmospheric treatments had no effect on the incidence of SDS. AK) Eastburn et al. and Singer. but ―little to no work has evaluated the influence of future atmospheric conditions on soybean diseases. is one of the major defense mechanisms implicated in soybean resistance. accessed 7/5/13. while they examined changes in the production of phytoalexins and some of their precursors. the glyceollins. which is equivalent to more than 24 million metric tons based on current production.0 times in the activity of enzymes related to their biosynthetic routes. as its concentration continues to rise in the years and decades to come. 1997). soybean is the most widely planted dicot crop and has economic significance due to its wide variety of uses. which may differentially alter the responsiveness of soybean plants to pathogens in CO2 atmospheric concentrations such as those predicted for future decades. 2011 (Craig D. (2009) write. but ―the increase was small in magnitude. Or to put it more simply. (2010) note. They did this in a glasshouse where they grew soybeans from seed for a period of nine days in large.genistein by 93%. In the introduction to another soybean study. on balance. in their study. Kretzschmar et al. Robert. This is particularly surprising given that ―worldwide yield losses to all soybean diseases combined are about 11% (Wrather et al. well-watered pots placed within open top chambers that were maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 380 or 760 ppm. On the other hand. This work revealed that elevated CO2 ―resulted in an increase of intermediates and diverted end products (daidzein by 127%.org/reports/2011/2011report. Taken in their entirety. 1. they state ―elevated CO2 alone or in combination with O3 significantly increased brown spot severity in all three years.. NIPCC. Carter. the ongoing rise in the air‘s CO2 content will likely increase the ability of soybeans to withstand the attacks of various plant diseases in the years and decades to come. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. Chapter 7. Eastburn et al. luteolin by 89% and apigenin by 238%) with a concomitant increase of 1. . http://nipccreport.html. “Climate Change Reconsidered. In an attempt to begin to fill this knowledge void. that elevated CO2 should provide a net benefit to soybean productivity throughout the world. ranging from food and health products to printing inks and biodiesal.

including Liriodendron tulipifera. while the average yearly increase in NPP caused by the approximate 54 percent increase in the air‘s CO2 content was 28 percent. state. which is astounding. In expanding on this statement.” 2011 Interim Report. The results of this protocol indicated ―elevated CO2 increased pine biomass production. fine-root biomass in the top 15 cm of soil increased by 24%. the effect of elevated CO2 belowground shows no sign of diminishing. Thus. but they state. leaf litter (lagged for pines). . http://nipccreport. after which they present a synthesis of these and other results obtained from 1996 through 2008. the four researchers note ―if progressive nitrogen limitation were occurring in this system. in elevated CO2.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 192 CO2 Good – Helps Forests Elevated CO2 Levels Key to Stronger Forests Idso. Consequently. averaging ~30% at high CO2. and ―the CO2-induced enhancement remained fairly consistent as the stand developed. (2007). Further extending the results of the Duke Forest FACE study were Jackson et al. and in recent years the fine-root biomass increase ―grew stronger. the suite of trees. Conducted at the Duke Forest Free-Air CO2Enrichment (FACE) facility. (2009). All of these were grown on a soil that Finzi and Schlesinger (2003) describe as being in ―a state of acute nutrient deficiency that can only be reversed with fertilization. with no sign of it even beginning to taper off. Fred. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Acer rubrum..html. report ―on average. ambient CO2 plots. starting in 1997 and continuing every year thereafter. Jackson et al.Ulmus alata. accessed 7/5/13. coarse roots). and shrubs that constitute the Duke Forest has continued to maintain the extra CO2enabled vitality it exhibited right from the start of the study. and Singer. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. We calculate from the graphical representation of their results that the coarse-root biomass was fully 130 percent greater. they found ―elevated CO2 increased stand (pine plus all other species) biomass production every year from 1997 onwards with no trend over time. the team of nine researchers writes. seeking to determine ―which. branches. Regarding coarse roots having diameters greater than 2 mm and extending to a soil depth of 32 cm. starting with the study of McCarthy et al.org/reports/2011/2011report. Working with data for the years 1996–2004. Many researchers had long thought such fertility deficiency would stifle the ability of the extra aerial supply of CO2 to significantly stimulate the forest‘s growth on a continuing basis. (2010). ―in fact there is little evidence from estimates of aboveground or total net primary productivity in the replicated Duke experiment that progressive nitrogen limitation is occurring there or at other forest FACE experiments. there is very good reason to believe the ―aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will continue to benefit Earth‘s forests significantly as long as the atmosphere‘s CO2 concentration continues to rise. we consider the case of natural and plantation-type forests. beginning with studies of the latter type. In the concluding sentence of their paper‘s abstract. citing in this regard—with respect to the latter portion of their statement—the report of Finzi et al. Carter. where the air around groups of trees has been experimentally enriched with CO2. Among many other things. who describe new belowground data they obtained there. and Cornus florida. 2011. bushes. Liquidambar styraciflua. if any. 2011 (Craig D. and S. and in spite of the original belief of many scientists that low levels of soil nitrogen—especially an acute deficiency— would preclude any initial growth stimulation provided by atmospheric CO2 enrichment from long persisting. they report. “Climate Change Reconsidered. hardwoods and the entire stand was calculated as the sum of the production of coarse wood (stems. Chapter 7. shrubs. In addition. ―net primary productivity *NPP+ for pines. ―overall. NIPCC. Robert. even ―after more than a decade of manipulation of the air‘s CO2 content. AK) Moving up from individual species and small groups of plants to the ecosystem scale. fine roots and reproductive structures. and vines. we would expect differences in productivity to diminish for trees in the elevated vs. plus various other trees. ―biomass sampled in 2008 was twice as great in elevated CO2. Jackson et al. variables show evidence for a decrease in their response to atmospheric CO2 during that time frame. Marine Geologist. particularly given that the extra 200 ppm of CO2 supplied to the air surrounding the CO2-enriched trees represented only about a 55 percent increase over ambient conditions. this study is a long-term experiment designed to investigate the effects of an extra 200 ppm of atmospheric CO2 on the growth and development of a plantation of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) trees with an understory of various broadleaf species.

http://nipccreport. so that overall. Marine Geologist. NIPCC.html. 2011. CO2 produces BVOCs – that increases cloud formation which resolves warming and prevents future pest attacks Idso.org/reports/2011/2011report. “Climate Change Reconsidered. These findings represent good news. Plants re-emit a substantial portion of their assimilated CO2 back to the atmosphere as BVOCs. and these substances affect both the chemical and physical properties of the air. The three scientists warn. and S. http://nipccreport. Plants re-emit a substantial portion of their assimilated CO2 back to the atmosphere as BVOCs.they are key to cloud formation and cooling.. “Climate Change Reconsidered. But not all BVOCs are so helpful.g. 2011. But not all BVOCs are so helpful. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. Marine Geologist. 2011. In addition. willow and poplar) may reverse the trend by which conversion of land to food crops leads to lower isoprene emissions. AK) Still other secondary carbon compounds comprise what are known as biogenic volatile organic compounds or BVOCs. Idso. Chapter 7. . many BVOCs protect plants from a host of insect pests. Fred. accessed 7/5/13. and S.” 2011 Interim Report.” 2011 Interim Report. and Singer. and Singer. accessed 7/8/13.org/reports/2011/2011report. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. but rising atmospheric CO2 caused a 21% reduction. Carter. Carter. Marine Geologist. as the factors identified should reduce the undesirable consequences of increases in tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations. AK) The scientists found that between 1901 and 2002. http://nipccreport. Chapter 7. Robert. where they generate large quantities of organic aerosols that can affect the planet‘s climate by forming cloud condensation nuclei that may lead to increased cooling during the day by reflecting a greater portion of the incoming solar radiation back to space. In addition. Carter.this turns the case. however.” 2011 Interim Report. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Fred. AK) Still other secondary carbon compounds comprise what are known as biogenic volatile organic compounds or BVOCs. NIPCC. anthropogenic cropland expansion had the largest impact. Robert. Founder for Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.org/reports/2011/2011report. many BVOCs protect plants from a host of insect pests.. 2011 (Craig D. oil palm. This provides yet another reason not to force use of biofuels as replacements for fossil fuels. “Climate Change Reconsidered. and Singer. accessed 7/8/13. Chapter 7. Robert. and these substances affect both the chemical and physical properties of the air. CO2 solves isoprene BVOCs Idso.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 193 CO2 Good – Solves BVOC’s More CO2 means more BVOCs. NIPCC. and by the end of the 20th century. that ―the possible rapid expansion of biofuel production with high isoprene-emitting plant species (e. climate change at the global scale was responsible for a 7% increase in isoprene emissions. reducing isoprene emissions by 15%. and S.html. 2011 (Craig D. these factors combined to cause a 24% decrease in global isoprene emissions during the 20th century. 2011 (Craig D. Director of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. Fred..html.. where they generate large quantities of organic aerosols that can affect the planet‘s climate by forming cloud condensation nuclei that may lead to increased cooling during the day by reflecting a greater portion of the incoming solar radiation back to space.

warming tends to reduce yields because crops speed through their development. lose more moisture from their leaves. about 600 billion tons of carbon are tied up in the above-ground vegetation. "CO2 Fertilization. . Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development. storing more than a few tens of percent of the existing carbon would be quite surprising. the quarterly publication of the IMF March 2008. and this is likely to be more like a few percent of global carbon emissions projected for the 21st century. and the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI). Typically. in the process of photosynthesis. “Global warming and agriculture” Finance and Development. suggests that there is good reason not to downplay the risks to agriculture from global warming.htm For that reason. Multiple reasons warming kills agriculture William Cline. stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration would require gathering up the equivalent of 1 to 2 times the world’s existing above ground vegetation and putting it down abandoned oil wells or deep in the ocean. PHD in Geology and Geophysics from Yale. what is called the "2080s. availability of nutrients such as Nitrogen and Phosphorus) appear to quickly become limiting. holding joint positions in the Departments of Meteorology and Geosciences. even when carbon availability is removed as a constraint on plant growth when ambient CO2 concentrations are sufficiently increased. While CO2 fertilization could help to increase above ground vegetation a bit." Climate model projections are available on a comparable basis for this period. Recent experiments and model calculations. Beyond a certain range of temperatures. And higher temperatures also interfere with the ability of plants to get and use moisture. Evaporation from the soil accelerates when temperatures rise and plants increase transpiration—that is.php/archives/2004/11/co_2-fertilization/) It has sometimes been argued that the earth’s biosphere (in large part. long-term increases in co2 due to human activity." http://www. which is a more difficult carbon pool to augment. This effect is known as “CO2 fertilization” because.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/cline. These numbers clearly indicate that sequestering a significant fraction of projected emissions in vegetation is likely to be very difficult. How climate affects agriculture Climate change can affect agriculture in a variety of ways. About 2-3 times this much is tied up in roots and below ground carbon.g. 3-2008.org/index.imf. http://www. At present. which is far enough in the future to allow sizable warming and potential damage to materialize but close enough to the present to elicit public concern.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 194 AFF – 2AC – CO2 Ag Benefits are short-term – can’t act as a sufficient negative feedback and warming kills other resources needed to sustain agriculture Mann 4 (Michael E. The combined effect is called "evapotranspiration. member of the Penn State University faculty.. 2007) was undertaken both to get a better long-term fix on overall world effects under current policies (the so-called baseline or business-as-usual scenario) and to understand the likely impact on individual countries and regions. suggest that this is experiments known as FACE (“Free Air CO2 Enrichment”) experiments have unlikely to be the case. producing less grain in the process. especially as forests are cleared to make way for agriculture and communities. By comparison. in the envisioned scenario. Experiments of this sort that have been done at Duke Forest indicate (in agreement with models). the net impact of higher temperatures on water availability is a race between higher evapotranspiration and higher precipitation. the terrestrial biosphere) may have the capacity to sequestor much of the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with human fossil fuel burning. convert CO2 into oxygen. scenarios for fossil fuel emissions for the 21st century range from about 600 billion tons (if we can keep total global emissions at current levels) to over 2500 billion tons if the world increases its reliance on combustion of coal as economic growth and population increase dramatically. This is due in part to the fact that other conditions (e. The time frame stretched out to the average for 2070–99. that any elevation of productivity is likely to be short-lived and is unlikely to significantly offset any gradual. which is explored in this article. The study. While there are possibilities of storage in wells and deep in the ocean. however. that race is won by higher evapotranspiration. higher ambient CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere literally “fertilize” plant growth." Because global warming is likely to increase rainfall. A few simple calculations indicate that any hypothesized co2 fertilization response is unlikely to offset a significant fraction of projected increases in atmospheric co2 concentration over the next century. Because plants in turn. this study (Cline. it is thus sometimes argued that such “co2 fertilization” could potentially provide a strong negative feedback on changing CO2 concentrations. He is also director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC). A set of controlled been performed in which ambient CO2 levels are elevated in forest stands and changes in various measures of productivity are made over several years.realclimate.

2011 is an assistant business editor at The New York Times. crops (such as wheat. though not all. a dozen years at The Miami Herald. and soybeans). These projections are likely to be. These experts say Heat capacity. and our confidence in them cannot be high because they are based on scenarios in which significant changes in extreme events such as droughts and floods are not fully considered or for which rapid nonlinear climatic changes have not been. This would increase the disparity in food production between developed and developing countries. Some researchers. Many of the failed harvests of the past decade were a consequence of weather disasters. underestimates. is far from certain on the benefits of carbon fertilization. are pointing out what they consider to be gaping holes. growing season. farmers need to withstand whatever climate shocks come their way while roughly doubling the amount of food they produce to meet rising demand. scientists had predicted that climate change would be relatively manageable for agriculture. For nearly two decades. swine. analyzing computer forecasts that are used to advise governments on future crop prospects.” A scramble is on to figure out whether climate science has been too sanguine about the risks. He joined the Times last year after a dozen years as an editor and reporter at The Washington Post. developed countries.1. the adaptive capacity of less developed countries in the tropics is limited by financial and technological constraints that are not equally applicable to more temperate.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 Now. . like the floods and the heat waves that are increasing as the earth warms. and before that. rice. Much of the literature suggests that productivity increases in middle to high latitudes will diminish. but they also could increase the risk of heat or drought stress in other areas.ipcc.5°c Chapter 5 reports that most studies agree that world food prices –a key indicator of overall agricultural vulnerability would increase. A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself http://www. the destabilization of the food system and the soaring prices have rattled many leading scientists. adding to the price gyrations. 1998. which account for about one-fourth of all crops by value. But we do know that this phenomenon does not much help C4 crops (such as sugar-cane and maize). Scientists believe some. And they need to do it while reducing the considerable environmental damage caused by the business of agriculture. so-called C3. In the tropics and subtropics -where some crops already are near their maximum temperature tolerance and where dry land.nytimes. Chapter 5). Increases in temperatures could open new areas to cultivation. financial and tech constraints outweigh CO2 benefits James McCarthy. These include a failure to consider the effects of extreme weather. and seasonality of precipitation. however. cattle. and a paper published several weeks ago found that this had shaved several percentage points off potential yields. and yield decreases in the tropics and subtropics are expected to be more severe (Chapters 5 and 19).ch Human production factors notwithstanding. the primary contributor to global warming.4 notes that vulnerability to extreme events generally is higher than vulnerability to changing mean conditions).Gonzaga Debate Institute 195 Warming Core But a key culprit in climate change—carbon emissions—can also help agriculture by enhancing photosynthesis in many important. A rising unease about the future of the world’s food supply came through during interviews this that in coming decades. changes in temperature regimes. it would probably take until 2080 for food prices to double. CO2 is net worse for food Justin Gillis June 4. Moreover. In part.g. a researcher at NASA who helped pioneer the study of climate change and agriculture. in charge of the paper's coverage of food. For global warming greater than 2.” said Cynthia Rosenzweig. these assumptions went largely unchallenged. For smoothly evolving climatic scenarios. as well as by temperature. year with more than 50 agricultural experts working in nine countries. suggesting that even under worst-case assumptions. The science. Until a few years ago.2. http://www. Full Text of Third Assessment WG #2. assumed (Section 2. The effects of climatic changes—even smooth trends will not be uniform in space or time. depending on crop type. “The success of agriculture has been astounding. drought in Australia and blistering heat waves in Europe and Russia. they were counting on a counterintuitive ace in the hole: that rising carbon dioxide levels.1. But lately. and poultry) are all susceptible to heat stress and drought (Gates. Temperatures are rising rapidly during the growing season in some of the most important agricultural countries. of those events were caused or worsened by human-induced global warming. Livestock (e. 1. food production is influenced mostly by the availability of water and nutrients. “But I think there’s starting to be premonitions that it may not continue forever. 2001. no irrigated agriculture predominates the literature suggests that yields will tend to decrease with even nominal amounts of climate change (IPCC. the latest scientific research suggests that a previously discounted factor is helping to destabilize the food system: climate change.3.. 1993).com/2011/06/05/science/earth/05harvest. recent literature (see Chapter 5) tends to project that high latitudes may experience increases in productivity for global warming up to a 1°C increase. like floods in the United States. agriculture and energy. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. would act as a powerful plant fertilizer and offset many of the ill effects of climate change.

” Agronomy Journal. “The Geological Record of Ocean Acidification” (subs. However. Iss. soybean. 1994).. Vol. Thomson. al. Ziska. But if industrial carbon emissions continue at the current pace. C.wri. In other words. Any increase in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events. The study is the first of its kind to survey the geologic record for evidence of ocean acidification over this vast time period. and new combinations of pests and diseases may emerge as natural ecosystems respond to altered temperature and precipitation profiles. “We know that life during past ocean acidification events was not wiped out—new species evolved to replace those that died off. and rice systems (e. Lejeune et al. March 2k11.. projecting increases in growth for the middle Atlantic states (Patterson et al. and the natural resilience of biological systems. Photosynthesis Research Unit and Professor @ UIllinois—AND A.org/publication/content/8486) Climate change will affect plant pests and diseases in the same way it affects infectious disease agents. http://www. 1993). breeders.” said lead author Bärbel Hönisch. will help buffer many of the negative effects of climate change on agriculture. Wolfe. salmon. windstorms. 1991). An explosion of the rodent population that damaged the grain crop in Zimbabwe in 1994. Boote. req’d).H. itchgrass (Rottboelliia cochinchinensis).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 196 Weeds accelerate with warming – kills plants Hatfield et. Izaurralde. Pacific Northwest National Lab.M. Kimball. American Society of Agronomy) Along with precipitation. an invasive weed associated with significant yield reductions in sugarcane for Louisiana (Lencse and Griffin. grain sorghum. Professor of Horticulture @ Cornell University (J.. is also highly competitive in corn. Warming increases Pests – kills agriculture WRI 99 (World Resource Institute. says a new study in Science. Ort. The effect of climate on pests may add to the effect of other factors such as the overuse of pesticides and the loss of biodiversity that already contribute to plant pest and disease outbreaks [300]. The ingenuity of farmers. Joint Global Change Research Institute. such as cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica) and witchweed (Striga asiatica). cotton. The probable impact of rising temperatures on the expansion of invasive weeds into higher latitudes is of particular concern. 2007). for example. For example.org. 103. experts believe that over the longer term. the accumulated stresses of sustained climate change stand a good chance of disrupting agro-ecosystems and reducing global food productivity.” 3/2/2012. a paleoceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. additional warming could also restrict the southern range of other invasive weeds. raising the possibility that we are entering an . 2.g. Professor @ Joint Global Change Research Institute.S. Pacific Northwest National Lab @ UMaryland—AND D. “Science: Ocean Acidifying So Fast It Threatens Humanity’s Ability to Feed Itself. 11—Laboratory Director @ National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment (Ames. Conversely. after 6 years of drought had eliminated many rodent predators." wri. IA)—AND K. We knew from a 2010 Nature Geoscience stu dy that the oceans are now acidifying 10 times faster today than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of m arine species occurred. CO2 kills ocean biodiversity Joe Romm is a Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress. and agricultural engineers. or floods. consequently. we may lose organisms we care about—coral reefs. The response of this species to a 3°C increase in average temperature stimulated biomass by 88% and leaf area by 68% (Patterson et al. "Climate change will affect plant pests and diseases in the same way it affects infectious disease agents. U. the range of many insects will expand or change.” That’s the news release from a major 21-author Science paper. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center—AND L. USDA/ARS. could also disrupt the predator-prey relationships that normally keep pest populations in check.L. is also anticipated (Patterson. @ UMaryland—AND D. Northward migration of other invasive weeds. 1979). temperature is a primary abiotic variable that affects invasive weed biology. wild proso millet (Panicum miliaceum) or Canada thistle (Ziska and Runion. oysters. Many of the worst invasives for warm season crops in the southern U nited S tates originated in tropical or warm temperature areas. worker @ USDA-ARS. shows how altered climate conditions can intensify pest problems. Professor of Agronomy @ UFlorida—AND B. http://thinkprogress. “What we’re doing today really stands out. including droughts. northward expansion of these invasives may accelerate with warming (Patterson. worker @ USDA Crop Systems and Global Change Lab—AND R. heat waves. “Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production.J.A.org/romm/2012/03/02/436193/scienceocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanity-ability-to-feeditself/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+climateprogre The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they did during four major extinctions in the last 300 million years. 1999).. when natural pulses of carbon sent global temperatures soaring. 1995a). But this study looked back over 300 million and found that “ the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place” has put marine life at risk in a frighteningly unique way: … the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last ~300 My of Earth history.

as well as other less abundant but necessary elements. wetlands destruction. "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable. the gas reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid. just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems. Ethics as well as enlightened self-interest thus suggest that Their studies are flawed – they were done in greenhouses rather than open fields Mittelstaedt 9 (Martin. human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life. it can deplete the carbonate ions that corals. and converting the web of life into brainless. the Black Sea is not necessarily unique. For example. The lessons of this tragedy should not be lost to the rest of us. and we will take most of the biosphere with us. and the rise in wheat and rice yields was less than half previous estimates.even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. oil spills.coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations. Nor. 34 McGeorge L. economic value. However. 7-3-11) Scientists have made another worrisome discovery. Current evidence shows that. but we now know that such harm is occurring . Rev. therefore.even if a few fishers go out of business as a result. http://www. sadly." Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity. carbon. but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. while climate change But new research published last on experiments in the U. nitrogen. rather than in greenhouses. then collapsed with shocking suddenness. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit. emptying fishermen's nets. "ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms. which is vital for plant development. 3-31. Switzerland and New Zealand found the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide were vastly overrated when crops were grown in the more realistic setting of open farm fields. we just learned from a 2012 new Nature Climate Change study that carbon dioxide is “driving fish crazy” and threatening their survival. Thus. We may not know much about the sea. but we do know this much: ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies.and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide. The ecological stresses imposed on the Black Sea were not unique to communism. Indiana University. The Globe and Mail’s environment reporter.com/archives/article743395. More generally. Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine environment. But if CO2 goes into the oceans too quickly. That is a recipe for mass extinction. besides significant tourism values . services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. Extinction Craig 3 (Robin Kundis.Gonzaga Debate Institute 197 Warming Core unknown territory of marine ecosystem change. The Black Sea is a microcosm of what is happening to the ocean systems at large. forcing the United States should protect fullyfunctioning marine ecosystems wherever possible .S. Corn yields didn't rise at all. this time about carbon dioxide itself. might wreak havoc on ice-dependent polar bears and low-lying coastal cities." In a very real and direct sense. mollusks and some plankton need for reef and shell-building. p.. the main greenhouse gas.Winter. "starving out fish and dolphins. the introduction of an alien species. worldwide . based on greenhouse experiments. That is part of the reason why. it’s not just that acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown “by end of century” as a 2010 G eological Society study put it.ece. its once-complex and productive States has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. non-extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. marine animals to flee and killing all that cannot. 264-266) Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist. which over time is neutralized by fossil carbonate shells on the seafloor. The Black Sea is almost dead. oxygen. importantly. because much of what happened here is being repeated all over the world. Here’s more on the new study: The oceans act like a sponge to draw down excess carbon dioxide from the air. phosphorus." At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea . that an atmosphere richer in carbon dioxide would stimulate plant growth. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can . and sulfur. industrial discharges. raising some crop yields by as much as 30 per cent. Oxygen-starved "dead zones" appear with increasing frequency off the coasts of major cities and major rivers. it held a verdant lining for farmers. up until now. year based . 155. Japan.“ And remember. The Globe and Mail. Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Waste treatment is another significant. should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. nutrient pollution. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine disasters. We are also warming the ocean and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentration. in general." More The stresses piled up: overfishing. wraith-like blobs of jelly. That is to say.theglobeandmail.especially when the United if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves. A 2009 Nature Geoscience study found that ocean dead zones “devoid of fish and seafood” are poised to expand and “remain for thousands of years. was the failure of governments to respond to the emerging crisis. It was thought that. The sea weakened. an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity. slowly at first. or economic value equivalents. Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. few people worried much about agriculture and global warming.the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide. It had been assumed in the 1980s. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 198 ***Russia DA*** .

businesses need to feel less that they are subject to Russia's whim when it comes to tariffs. who had the right type of ice ship. then it's good business for them. Retreating sea ice due to global warming in recent years has seen foreign shipping companies start to look northwards for the possibility of commercial shipping routes .¶ "If they can employ their icebreakers in the summer season.a trip which.¶ Good trade depends on predictability¶ Global warming has meant the North Sea route has become freer of ice.¶ "Despite all of the change.¶ "The bottom line is that Russia's GNP is tied to Arctic natural resources development. is almost twice as long. the MV Nordic Barents left Kirkenes port in Norway on 4 September. while a 2008 report by the US Geological Survey suggested oil in the Arctic circle could amount to 13 percent of the world's undiscovered supply. Ocnus. is editor of the EUobserver in Brussels and has also written for The Irish Times. But until recently the area has been closed to foreign ships wanting to get to hungry Asian markets. a path that runs eastwards from northern Europe.¶ There are a host of other problems too.¶ "The rate we paid last year [$210." he said. There are also no clear rules on standards for ships sailing in the area. 6/7/11.shtml Late last year a cargo ship made maritime history. approached the Russians about the possibility of using the North Sea route to get to China. it comes down to Russia wanting to exploit natural resources in the area.¶ Instead companies use the Suez Canal .000 tonnes of iron ore." said Brigham. it docked in Xingang.Russia DA Arctic warming is key to Russia’s economy Mahoney ’11 (Honor Mahony.¶ Until then uncertainty about how much the Russians would charge for the mandatory use of their ice-breakers meant the trip was not economically viable.¶ Tschudi and Bonfils have an additional." said Bonfils. An impact study on Arctic marine shipping by the Arctic Council notes that the navigation season for the North Sea route is expected to be 90-100 days only by 2080."¶ "There is a little bit of a misperception that this is a new global regime with new global shipping lanes that will replace Panama and Suez [canals]. Sunday Business Post and Spiegel Online. but the navigation season is still just two-four months¶ "The whole trip went very well. the savings for fuel alone was around $550." said Bonfils. It became the first foreign bulk carrier to make a commercial trip across Russian Arctic waters. The US disagrees.¶ "We got a very clear message from the Russians.¶ Getting Russian natural resources out¶ So what prompted the Russian thaw? According to Professor Lawson Brigham. .net/artman2/publish/Business_1/Arctic-Shipping-Routes-Unlikely-to-be-Suez-of-the-North.¶ It sailed the North Sea route. There are huge reserves of gas in the Shtokman gas field. CEO of Nordic Bulk Carriers. mines in Finland. the mine's biggest customer.¶ Last year Tschudi Shipping.¶ The waters are not as well chartered as elsewhere.¶ The region has a wealth of natural resources including nickel. an expert on Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. operator of the ship. "We need predictability [on prices] in order to plan." said Tschudi.¶ The Russians have been using Arctic waters all year round for decades. The obligation to use Russian ice-breakers is a money spinner. phosphate.¶ Carrying over 40.¶ The North Sea route has become freer of ice." said CEO Felix Tschudi. sometimes only two. If a ship gets into trouble. adding: "The global maritime industry works on just-in-time cargoes and the regular nature of marine traffic. At the political level. It was: 'We want to compete with Suez'. Some three weeks later. Just compared to going via the Cape of Good Hope.¶ Problems¶ Several more such trans-arctic trips are planned this year.ocnus. Russia considers the Northern Sea route as national territory. there is a dispute over the waters. http://www. which owns a mine in Kirkenes. copper and cobalt. More oceangraphic and meterological data is needed as well as information on icebergs. According to Tschudi the North Sea route "will be important for those who are shipping from fairly high north. But this is the case only for about four months a year at most. to make the trip. The Norwegian company hooked up with Nordic Bulk Carriers.000] for ice-breaker services was very comparable with the Suez Canal. You can also save by shipping from Rotterdam.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 199 1NC." said Christian Bonfils.net. the Arctic Ocean is ice-covered for most of the year. counted from Norway. so it makes the rules.¶ The real driver is building up a transport system to move the cargoes of natural resources to global markets and one of the big global markets sitting there is China. help is far away."¶ But for all the buzz it has been creating shipping companies are also thrilled at the prospect of pirate-free waters – caveats abound."¶ In addition. There is little infrastructure in Arctic territory. northern China. along Russia's north coast and through the Bering Strait.000. There were no big delays and it was a lot cheaper. more prosaic explanation. iron ore."¶ "It will be quite important for mines in the Kola Peninsula [in north west Russia].

both intimately acquainted with their nation’s history. even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise cash. how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence. achieved at great cost after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. President Barack Obama’s national security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major economic meltdown in Russia for the peace of the world.¶ Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out of the question. It was the economic stagnation of the former Soviet Union that led to its political downfall.S. Already.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 200 Russian econ decline causes global nuclear wars Filger 9 (Sheldon. strikes and protests are occurring among rank and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries. Author and Writer @ the Huffington Post.” http://www.com/blog/archives/356) In Russia historically. Medvedev and Putin. For that reason. economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that is rarely encountered in other major industrialized economies. it is not only President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing social and political upheaval. Former VP for Resource Development at New York’s United Way.¶ During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia.globaleconomiccrisis. Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal of sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further. There is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then the economic context. the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be for the Global Economic Crisis. Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev are eroding rapidly. the most recent national intelligence estimates put out by the U. Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived decline from superpower status. are unquestionably alarmed at the prospect that Russia’s economic crisis will endanger the nation’s political stability. It just may be possible that U. security forces responsible for guarding the nation’s nuclear arsenal went without pay for months at a time. due to its facilitating political instability in the world. leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations. Similarly.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global Economic Crisis represents the greatest national security threat to the United States. . Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs. After all. who have been forced to deleverage.

prolif. to serve as a rallying point for internal conflict is low at present. The dangers posed by Russia’s civilian and military nuclear weapons complex. disease. is not an existential risk. The political factors of decline may make Russia a less stable international actor and other factors may increase the risk of internal unrest. terrorism. populous. create a real risk of proliferation of weapons or weapons materials to terrorist groups. The potential for locale. Russian economic weakness causes nuclear war. which further increases the risk of international conflict. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange. whether alone or as part of a larger coalition. These elements touch upon key security interests. The trends of regionalization. and US intervention Oliker and Charlick-Paley ‘2 ( (Olga and Tanya.Russia. Such a war might however be a local terminal risk for the cities most likely to be targeted. OLIKER AND CHARLICK-PALEY 2002 Decline. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that mighthave been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal.” The Journal of Evolution and Technology. aside from the threat of nuclear weapons use. These factors also increase the potential for domestic turmoil.rand. between India and Pakistan for instance. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals.Impact Calc Russian economic decline outweighs and turns the affOur filger evidence says econ decline would destroy Russia’s stability. and Russia’s demographic situation increases the potential for a major epidemic with possible implications for Europe and perhaps beyond. “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards. A crisis in large. particularly the disparate rates of economic growth among regions. they increase the risk of conflict and the potential scope of other imaginable disasters. March) A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. PhD and Professor of Philosophy @ Oxford. the United States. either accidentally or deliberately.[4] Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation. as well as perpetuating an increasing risk of accident at one of Russia’s nuclear power plants or other facilities. Given Russia’s conventional weakness.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 201 2NC. This chapter .org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1442/) RAND Corporation Project Air Force. combined with the politicization of regional economic and military interests. will be important to watch. could be asked to send military forces to the area in and around Russia. Together and separately. thus raising serious concerns for the United States. or possibly ethnicity. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization. and nuclear-armed Russia can easily affect the interests of the United States and its allies. but these factors have the potential to feed into precisely the cycle of instability that political scientists have identified as making states in transition to democracy more likely to become involved in war. A declining Russia increases the likelihood of conflict—internal or otherwise—and the general deterioration that Russia has in common with “failing” states raises serious questions about its capacity to respond to an emerging crisis. an increased risk of conflict carries with it an increased risk of nuclear weapons use.” www. CBW use. we shall see that nuclear Armageddon and comet or asteroid strikes are mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century. Unfortunately. for instance if Moscow seeks to united a divided nation and/or demonstrate globally that its waning power remains something to be reckoned with. “Assessing Russia’s The preceding chapters have illustrated the ways in which Russia’s decline affects that country and may evolve into challenges and dangers that extend well beyond its borders. causes nuke prolif and war It’s the only extinction level war Bostrom 2 (Nick. In response to such a scenario.

and terrorists could threaten the people and economies of Europe. Azerbaijan. From this base. and/or Ukraine. risking large-scale contamination and humanitarian disaster. or biological weapons and agents. Accelerated Russian weapons and technology sales or unauthorized diversion could foster the proliferation of weapons and weapon materials to rogue states and nonstate terrorist actors. and the United States. famine.S. Europe. Ethnic pogrom in south Russia could force refugees into Georgia. A notional list includes: Authorized or unauthorized belligerent actions by Russia troops in trouble-prone Russian regions or in neighboring states could lead to armed conflict. which would endanger oil and gas pipelines in the region.Gonzaga Debate Institute 202 Warming Core will explore a handful of scenarios that could call for U. chemical. Asia. Armenia. criminals. or the United States. Nuclear-armed terrorists based in Russia or using weapons or materials diverted from Russian facilities could threaten Russia. Kazakhstan. Border clashes with China in the Russian Far East or between Russia and Ukraine. or epidemic could spawn refugees and spread illness and death across borders. Asia. involvement. A wide range of crisis scenarios can be reasonably extrapolated from the trends implicit in Russia’s decline. drug traders. the Baltic states. increasing the risk of nuclear war. A nuclear accident at a power plant or facility could endanger life and health in Russia and neighboring states. An increasingly criminalized Russian economy could create a safe haven for crime or even terrorist-linked groups. A massive ecological disaster such as an earthquake. Economic and ethnic conflicts in Caucasus could erupt into armed clashes. Civil war in Russia could involve fighting near storage sites for nuclear. or another neighbor could escalate into interstate combat. A chemical accident at a plant or nuclear or nuclear-related facility could endanger life and health in Rusisa and neighboring states. .

engineers... Moscow reportedly sees the potential of minerals in its slice of the Arctic sector approaching $2 trillion." but now the country's oil production is declining."¶ ¶ As the world's second-largest oil exporter. Russia's proven oil reserves are a state secret.¶ Related stories¶ ¶ The Monitor's View Untapped oil. which accounts for more than two-thirds of government revenue and 30 percent of the country's gross domestic product.¶ ¶ "It's a good first step. in its inaugural meeting Monday approved tax holidays of up to 15 years for Russian companies that open new oil fields and proposed raising the threshold at which taxation begins from the current $9 per barrel to $15.more bucks there. "The output level we have today is a plateau.net/d/2007/3/29/17033. But she adds that "rapidly slowing" oil production. Now. Some say Russia may have already reached peak oil output. and many workers of the sturdy yeoman sort. estimates it has about 60 billion barrels – the world's eighth largest – which would last for 17 years at current production rates. scientists. Oil companies welcomed the measures. heavy taxation of oil profits." says Natalia Milchakova. and all this new Arctic boom is going to require technicians. a US-based industry publication.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in October.. which was growing by more than 10 percent five years ago.a new frontier.Oil/Gas Arctic warming is crucial to Russia’s economy. an oil and gas analyst for Otkritiye." he said..3 percent – the first Putin-era drop.prevents collapse from peak oil CSM ‘8 (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR 5282008 (lexis) ¶ The Kremlin often touts Russia's image as an "energy superpower. it may be too little. Moscow is trying to remedy a situation caused in part by outdated technology.Warming Key to Russia’s Economy.. Russian oil production fell by 0. overtapped politics¶ Risks of rising oil nationalism¶ Each oil crisis spells a new energy future¶ ¶ Underscoring the urgency of the issue. http://technocrat. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's new cabinet made its first order of business on Monday the approval of a package of measures to relieve the oil-production crisis. So much so.3 percent in the first four months of this year. that there are now some long simmering territorial disputes back on the high burner.. or stagnation. but the Oil & Gas Journal. ."The U.S.¶ ¶ Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko recently admitted the decline.¶ ¶ After rising steadily for several years to a post-Soviet high of 9. while exports fell 3. isn't "something that can be quickly fixed with political declarations.Russia.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 203 2NC. which have seen little new exploration... a Moscow-based brokerage firm. too late. for a lot of people and companies it means an economic boom. but suggested it might be overcome by fresh discoveries in underexplored eastern Siberia or in new Arctic territories recently claimed by Russia. but experts say that after almost two decades of post-Soviet neglect. Like Venezuela and Mexico. as it is officially known. Arctic warming is key to Russia’s economy Technocrat '7 *March 29th.¶ ¶ The Presidium of the Cabinet. Russia is heavily dependent on oil.". and lack of investment in oil infrastructure. “Global Climate Change Spurs Arctic Economic Boom”+ “It's not all doom and gloom with the Arctic warming up. . Russia joins a growing number of top oil suppliers wrestling with how to address declining or peaking production. Geological Survey estimates the Arctic has as much as 25% of the world's undiscovered oil and gas.

gold. extend the growing seasons. Online @ http://csis. at -15 °C high carbon steel breaks. The Northern Sea Route’s freight consisted of about 110. The UN sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted in 2001 that if average air temperature increased by 2-3.5 degrees. As the Arctic sea-ice retreats.Russia. a 20 mph wind quadruples the amount of time to perform a task. gas. and infrastructure. Additionally. which implies an increase of habitable land. said that the North Pole may be completely ice-free in the summer within a few decades.3 Writing on this topic in 1983.8 This is already happening. human health.” Observers are tracking additional warming trends like the spread of trees and shrubs northward.3 °C over the past 30 years and that winter temperatures in Siberia have increased 2-3 °C over the past 120-150 years. this is already happening. “Might Russia Welcome Global Warming?” Center for Strategic and International Studies. When temperatures hit -35-40 °C tin-alloy steel components shatter. as well as “considerable quantities of the world’s nickel. total losses to the cold comprise 33% of all possible working time in the Soviet north. equipment. cobalt. which contain large reserves of oil. ¶ ¶ Russia will further gain from the warming of the ground and water in and around its territory. there are high heating and snow and ice removal costs. The retreat of permafrost will make extraction of raw materials easier.”4 Furthermore. and perhaps increase overall agricultural yields—Russia has recently marked yield records. for example.5 These climate effects result in high maintenance and replacement costs. Rosgidromet has stated that Russia is close to opening “almost the entire Northern Sea Route to icebreaker-free shipping [from August to September+.6 Thus.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 204 2NC. some predict freight will increase to 64 million tons. wind has an increasingly negative effect: at -15 °C.9 In addition. Siberia contains eleven of the world’s fifty longest rivers—all of them flowing into the Arctic Ocean.000 tons this year.¶ ¶ In addition to these efficiency costs. cold causes damage to industries. Victor Mote wrote. Rosgidromet predicts that by 2050 the permafrost boundary would shift north by another 95-125 miles. as the temperature drops. diamonds. it is also expensive to live in the cold climates.General Warming is key to Russian growth Korepin ‘11 (Serge Korepin. By 2020.2 in fact. copper and diamonds . nickel and tungsten. a quarter of the earth’s permafrost would melt.¶ ¶ In addition.” In fact. In fact. Warming will directly reduce the effects of cold on work efficiency in Russia and reduce adaptation costs.Warming Key to Econ. Alexander Frolov. In addition. Warming will also allow agriculture to spread north. “In Siberia standard mining and excavation machinery may be used for only three to four months a year in northern Siberian tin and gold operations. These costs affect Russia more so than other areas because communist planners have populated cities and built industries that are too big to be economically viable in the relative coldness of their locations.7 This is reflected in the agency’s estimate that there will be five fewer days that require heat in 2015 than in 2000. research intern at the Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS. most of Russia’s gas and oil comes from Arctic regions. the distance between Rotterdam and Yokohama is about one-third shorter via the Northern Sea Route—along Russia’s north coast and then south through the Bering Strait. Russia’s increasing temperatures (which are probably the result of global warming) could relieve some the economic pressures that result from the cold climate. all compressors stop work. August 11 2011. The agency also estimates that Russians could reduce heating costs by as much as 10 % by 2050.org/blog/might-russiawelcome-global-warming) Russia pays a price for this cold. at -25-30 °C unalloyed steel breaks. the settlements along . representatives of the eight Arctic powers are already discussing the development of the route. The retreat of Arctic ice will reduce the cost of extracting natural resources from Arctic waters. Rosgidromet (Russia’s Hydro-meteorology agency) stated in 2008 that average annual temperature in Russia has risen by 1. Russia’s chief forecaster. One concern for such extraction has been icebergs. there is economic pressure because of the cold for many Russian cities to shrink (which has been difficult given the existing infrastructure of these cities). sometimes it is too cold to work at all. Victor Mote concluded “In an average year. Hill and Gaddy demonstrate that there is an accelerating drop in the efficiency of human and machine work as the temperature drops from freezing to -40 °C. except the Amur that flows to the Sea of Okhotsk (to a port that is unusable for five months out of the year because of the ice). frost-resistant rubber is required. A reduction in Arctic ice is also opening up a trade route which would be an alternative to the Suez Canal. standard steels and structures rupture en mass. buildings. Greenpeace’s 2009 report on Russia states that over the past 35 years the southern boundary of permafrost has moved north by 18-25 miles in European Russia and 50 miles near the Urals.

It will become possible to transport cargo from these rivers to ports around the globe. which could lead to a decrease in transport costs and an increase in trade volume from the interior of Siberia.”¶ .Gonzaga Debate Institute 205 Warming Core these rivers will no longer be on waterways that essentially come to a dead end. David Lempert and Hue Nhu Nguyen write in The Ecologist that “the biggest winner from global warming is going to be Russia.

create problems for the banking sector and the economy in general. “I think the Russian 
market. because Russian corporations are much cheaper than their Western counterparts.”¶ Another cause for optimism is that. financial markets director with investment company Grandis Capital. which is part of Brics and is still growing. industrial output increased by 5. And besides. the country’s economy is performing in a moderately positive manner. says Georgy Aksyonov. Mikhail Kozakov.30 since January of this year.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 206 2NC. the euro/dollar rate has not once dropped below 1. Investors today are clearly shifting their focus from sovereign to corporate debt. the budget will be disbursing actively. This is good news for Russia.¶ Russia’s financial authorities appear to be optimistic.8pc.AT: Euro Crisis Alt Cause Euro crisis doesn’t hurt Russia’s economy Vaisman ’11 (Euro cloud has silver lining for Russia November 30. vice-president of the Central Bank. as many predicted: at the time of going to press. the commodity market is also becoming more interesting. at least for speculative capital. 
investors always look for 
alternative markets”.”¶ Some other positive factors will not escape investors’ notice.” he said on the fringes of an international financial conference sponsored by Sberbank. In spite of the overall mood of recession in Russia. With the currency exchange situation as uncertain as the outlook for the economically developed countries. Sergey Shevtsov. albeit 
at a slower pace in recent years. Opinions among Russian experts vary. does not anticipate any serious threats to the domestic economy. thereafter. we have a trump card in the shape of our commodities.Russia.¶ It should also be noted that the European debt crisis is changing the attitude to protective mechanisms such as government bonds. on the whole.¶ “When times are hard. Russia is a more attractive investment destination than the developed markets.1pc from January to October and GDP in the third quarter is expected to grow by an estimated 4. though he admits that the crisis might lead to a shortage of liquidity.” . the single European currency did not go into a tailspin. however. According to the State Statistics Committee (Goskomstat). but investors may see the country’s markets as a shelter from the storm.¶ “We expect it to peak in mid-December and. 2011 Andrei Vaisman Russia is not immune to the effects of the eurozone crisis. in the current situation. may be promising in this situation. an analyst with the Net Trader company. says: “In the medium term.¶ “The liquidity deficit will grow but it will not.

which account for nearly half of the tax take -the deficit will stay over 10 percent of GDP. increasing budget transfers from 1. the slow fiscal consolidation is disappointing. accounting for 31 percent of federal outlays.¶ Even then. the fiscal strategy abandons a previous goal of balancing the budget by 2015. derivatives on the oil price. boosting domestic demand and investment.reuters."¶ On the spending side.decline causes total collapse Busvine 7/20 (Douglas.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 207 2NC." said Sergei Guriev. borrowing becomes hard for both companies and the government. they would become difficult to sustain in the event of a sharp and sustained oil price crash due to other contingent liabilities that are. But the doubters worry that oil dependence will not be conquered without stronger policies to ensure sufficient private investment flows.¶ Past recessions prove Pirani 10 — researcher and journalist. and even if he is right.¶ Kudrin has only managed to keep the projected deficit below 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the three-year budget horizon by hiking his oil price forecast to the mid-$90s from the high $70s previously.html) The recession was a devastating reminder of Russia’s economic dependence on natural resources. a $10 fall in the oil price would translate into an increase of one percentage point in the deficit for the world's largest oil and gas producer.org/Article/2682714/RUSSIAN-ECONOMY-Russias-oil-problem.With a sovereign debt of just 10 percent of GDP and half a trillion dollars in reserves. ¶ The enthusiasts focus on the fruit that government efforts to marshal oil funds to diversify the economy will bear. EMM) (Reuters) . properly targeted. Yevsei Gurvich. such as energy majors Gazprom and Rosneft and banks Sberbank and VTB.5 percent of GDP in 2008 to 5.Oil Key to Econ Russian budget projects are premised on oil . The biggest risk for Russia remains "a sharp and sustained" drop in oil prices. social spending. wrote in a recent study. head of the Economic Expert Group."¶ "It's a retrograde step.¶ An offsetting hike in payroll taxes will be partly unwound next year on the orders of President Dmitry Medvedev.¶ "With oil at $95 everybody's happy. The cost of the pension system. says fears that Russian domestic demand will fall behind that in the other Brics are “misplaced”. rector of Moscow's New Economic School. the government has locked itself into higher pension outlays. means that private-sector savings and domestic leverage are likely to expand rapidly . together with structurally lower inflation rates." said Ivan Tchakarov.com/article/2011/07/20/us-russiarisks-idUKTRE76J2KY20110720. ¶ Chief of those are debts owed by large state-controlled firms. Russia Writer @ Reuters.¶ By his own reckoning.¶ That will swell the largest budget item.¶ "Given the very high oil price forecast. After stripping out energy revenues -. "But at $70. Russia will spend four-fifths of its energy revenues on welfare.¶ Put another way. 05/10/10. chief economist at Renaissance Capital. mainly oil. And the differing interpretations of the recovery often rest on contrasting views about how easy it will be to escape that dependence. but will be shifted onshore longer term. He argues that a structural shift in fiscal policy means that oil revenues were not just used for the 2008–09 crisis rescue package. "The oil sensitivity of the budget has increased dramatically. ¶ This shift.Russia.¶ Economists at Deutsche Bank have estimated that a contingent liability shock caused by such "quasi-sovereign" entities could add 10 percentage points to Russia's national debt by 2020. reflecting the impact on the public finances of the global slump that put an end to years of surpluses generated at much lower oil prices. “ Analysis: Russia's biggest contingent liability: oil. Russia has a balance sheet that the United States and Europe can only envy as they battle their debt crises. effectively. ¶ Clemens Grafe. the pace of budget consolidation will slow significantly. economist at UBS and firmly in the optimist camp. could "completely undermine the stability of the budget system. which will rise in 2012 by 20 percent to 3. the books would only balance with oil at $125 per barrel next year.” 2011." Gurvich wrote.2 percent in 2010.8 trillion roubles ($135 billion). ¶ But a closer look at Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's latest fiscal plans reveals two concerns: he is betting that oil prices will stay high for years. if left unreformed. sovereign analyst at Fitch Ratings in London.¶ DOWNSIDE ACCELERATORS¶ Even if those costs are bearable under a sanguine view on oil.¶ LOCKED IN¶ In rough terms." agreed Edward Parker.¶ Kudrin will present his budget to parliament in the autumn. Oxford Institute for Energy studies (Simon. “RUSSIAN ECONOMY: Russia's oil problem” http://www. senior research fellow.emergingmarkets. who is likely to run for a second term next March if Prime Minister Vladimir Putin chooses not to return to Russia's highest office. http://uk.

While Russia will continue to be dependent on volatile commodity prices. which will fuel “a trend growth rate significantly higher than that of the world economy”. he says. domestic savings will grow and interest rates can stay low. .Gonzaga Debate Institute 208 Warming Core and drive the economy forward.

It is true that the Russian economy is backward. this is the least likely outcome for the country’s economic future. and other commodities because they are “primitive. Otherwise. Those sectors need to be opened to new entrants. which makes diversification a terrible idea. the net value they generate will be too small relative to oil and gas to change the overall profile of the economy. But the development of the new sectors will be difficult.rian. with a level playing field for all participants. Certainly. they argue. gas. can not. It will only harm itself by ill-advised and futile efforts to try. If Russia continues on the current course of pseudo-reform (which merely reinforces the old structures). It is a highly volatile source of wealth. if Russia were to somehow launch a genuine reform aimed at dismantling the old structures. the only realistic way to sustain success would be to focus on developing the commodity sectors. Most important.” A serious attempt to convert Russia’s economy into something resembling a modern Western economy would require dismantling this rent distribution system.AT: Diversification Good Slow diversification is inevitable but massive diversification wrecks the Russian economy – comparative advantage is key to overall growth. and costly . products. and Russia has more of them than anyone else. and the production chains in which they participate) is predominantly the same as in the Soviet era. work forces.” From the economic point of view. Oil and gas are something everyone wants. there are issues with oil. their location. For the sake of social and political stability. gas. and costly in terms of current welfare. Thus. and hence make Russia more dependent on oil rents. is “degrading.. On the contrary. Even if successful. plants. The physical structure of the real economy (that is. The causes of Russia’s backwardness lie in its inherited production structure.ru/valdai_op/20110616/164645377. and other commodity companies need to be freed from the requirement to participate in the various informal schemes to share their rents with enterprises in the backward sectors inherited from the Soviet system. It is the most competitive part of the economy.” Relying on them. Gaddy 11 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 209 2NC. It will not happen suddenly. Russia could obtain higher growth if the oil and gas sectors were truly modern. while it is fashionable to talk of “diversification” of the Russian economy away from oil and gas. the approach should be to generate the maximum value possible from the oil and protect that value through prudent fiscal policies. “Will the Russian economy rid itself of its dependence on oil?” http://en. On the other hand. and even entire sectors. economist specializing in Russia (Clifford G. a large share of Russia’s oil and gas rents is distributed to the production enterprises that employ the inherited physical and human capital. this makes no sense. 06/16/11. the kinds of investment envisioned in those efforts will preserve and reinforce the rent distribution chains. Many people in Russia—including President Medvedev—seem to believe Russia should de-emphasize the role of oil. The problem is that it is precisely the oil wealth (the so-called oil rent) that is used to support and perpetuate the inefficient structure. equipment. But oil is not the root cause. Granted. The proportion of GDP that would have to be invested in non-oil sectors is impossibly high. Russia should not. But that time is far off.html) To ask whether the Russian economy will rid itself of its “dependence on oil” is to ask whether ideology will trump economics. Oil is Russia’s comparative advantage. Washington. . may grow on the outside of the oil and gas sectors and the rent distribution chains they support. some new firms. A bigger problem is that oil will eventually lose its special status as an energy source and therefore much of its value. Even under optimal conditions for investment. any dream of creating a “non-oil” Russia that could perform as well as today’s commodity-based economy is unrealistic. In the meantime. and will not significantly reduce the role of oil and gas in its economy in the foreseeable future. But there are ways to hedge those risks. Current efforts for “diversification” do not challenge the rent distribution system. and that oil plays a role in that backwardness. This would be both highly destabilizing. sensible policies can deal with the problems. slow. DC. the industries. oil. oil and gas rents will remain important because they will be critical to support the inherently inefficient parts of the economy. The production and supply chains in that part of the economy are in effect “rent distribution chains.

Kyrgyzstan is an artificial construct created by none other than Stalin. In April.” http://www. and Russia's population problems could well evolve from crushing to irrecoverable. Unfortunately for Moscow. and in the post-Cold War era. (click here to enlarge image) A little more than five years ago. and in a very few years. “One fight Russia can’t afford. accordingly. the country suffers from sharp internal differences: Individual clans hold dominion over tiny patches of land separated from each other by rugged tracts of mountains. it is on the far side of the Eurasian steppe from the Russian core. The second prong of the strategy -. Russia's capacity for doing so will decrease drastically. Director of Global Analysis @ STRATFOR. Russia does not have the population to sustain the country at its present boundaries. Western nongovernmental organizations (and undoubtedly a handful of intelligence services) joined forces with some of these regional factions in Kyrgyzstan to overthrow the country's pro-Russian ruling elite in what is known as a "color revolution" in the former Soviet Union. any demographic bounce would not occur until the 2050s -. Even if this cohort reproduces at a subSaharan African birthrate. In nearly all cases. Another is the Carpathian Mountains.stratfor.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 210 2NC. Moscow's long-term strategy consistently has been to trade space for time ahead of the beginning of the Russian twilight. The bust in the birth rate in the 1990s and 2000s has generated the smallest population cohort in Russian history.flooding the region with ethnic Russians -. Uzbekistan gained the fertile floor of the valley. Stalin drew his lines well: Central Asia's only meaningful population center is the Fergana Valley. Latvia and Lithuania. e. This necessitates the de facto absorption not only of Ukraine. and this is a leading rationale behind current Russian foreign policy: Russia's demographics will never again be as "positive" as they are now. As time grinds on. And this is the best-case scenario for Russia in the next generation. which provide the region's water.which brings us to the crisis of the moment. The Crisis in Kyrgyzstan The former Soviet Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan is not a particularly nice piece of real estate. there are not many of these anchor points in Russia's neighborhood. the youngest tranche of the Russian population simply collapsed. intelligently. A lot less. There is.com/weekly/20100614_kyrgyzstan_crisis_and_russian_dilemma) But it is no longer the 17th century. no real Kyrgyz core. While it is in one of those mountainous regions that could be used to anchor Russian power. The situation transformed from an academic debate about Russia's future to a policy debate about Russia's present. Simply put. those post-Cold War children will themselves be at the age where they will be having children. the three states continuously are jockeying for control over the only decent real estate in the region. some geographic barriers that would limit the state's exposure to outside powers. Russia simply has to learn to work with less. can throw a color revolution and Kyrgyzstan's government switched yet . Russia is thus attempting to reach some natural anchor points.is no longer an option because of Russia's demographic profile. Kyrgyzstan obtained the region's foothills and highlands. and this strategy does not necessarily play to Russia's strengths anymore. The Russian birth rate has been in decline for a century. The Russians hope they will be able to husband their strength from these anchor points. Kyrgyzstan -. So Russia is moving quickly and. A small cohort will create an even smaller cohort. Russia proved that it.while not exactly pro-Western -. June 15.800 miles) removed from the Russian heartland. what flat patches of land it does have on which to build cities are scattered about. a fact that terrifies the Baltic states of Estonia. who rearranged internal Soviet borders in the region to maximize the chances of dislocation. dispute and disruption among the indigenous populations in case the Soviet provinces ever gained independence. more than 3.dwelled in a political middle ground the Russians found displeasing. if the Russians can expand to these anchor points. Kyrgyzstan has the least to work with of any of the region's states. Nearly all of its territory is mountainous. Moscow understands all this extremely well.000 kilometers (1. Until 2050. As such. something that makes Romania lose sleep at night. and the Americans are unlikely to be any more distracted than they are now. too. Moscow hopes it can trade less space for more time. and Tajikistan walked away with the only decent access to the valley as a whole. Subsequently.g. The geography of Kyrgyzstan itself also leaves a great deal to be desired. One is the Baltic Sea. And then there are the Tien Shan Mountains of Central Asia -.population problems Zeihan. even if the indications of high tuberculosis and HIV infections among this population cohort are all wrong. Arguably.once the children of this cohort have sufficiently aged to raise their own children. but also of Moldova. more important. Consequently. those clans have tighter economic and security relationships with foreigners than they do with each other. 2010 (Peter. and even if Russia can provide a level of services for this group that it couldn't manage during the height of Soviet power..AT: Adventurism Turn Russia won’t expand .

credibility that the Russians will . Russia's relatively few young families are busy holding the demographic line in Russia proper. As such. Russian lines in thousands of kilometers. where the current violence is strongest. but this victory would come neither easily nor cheaply. And it is also the only Central Asian state that is selfsufficient in both food and energy. particularly the territory of southern Kyrgyzstan. providing Tashkent a wealth of tools for manipulating developments throughout the region. From March through May. It is not so much that her government is in danger of falling -those same mountains that make it nearly impossible for Bishkek to control Osh make it equally difficult for Osh to take over Bishkek – but that the country has de facto split into (at least) two pieces. which heightened the state of fear in Bishkek from shrill to panic mode. In recent days. not expeditionary like its U. with the Russian-sponsored coup in Kyrgyzstan an excellent case in point. and reverse Kyrgyzstan's color revolution. And manipulate it does. Batken and Osh -. and to establish a new ruling elite. Tajiks and Russians combined. There are more Uzbeks in Central Asia than there are Kyrgyz.5 million ethnic Uzbeks reside in the other four former Soviet Central Asian states.S. Uzbekistan intervened decisively in Tajikistan's civil war in the 1990s. the Central Asian country boasts one of the most repressive governing systems in modern times. Despite much degradation in the period after the Soviet dissolution. nearly 100. Moreover. manipulate events in the Caucasus to whittle away at Turkey's authority. territory should belong to Uzbekistan.) Yet this may be a conflict Russia feels it cannot avoid.whose government only coalesced due to the Russian intervention -.to say nothing of Kyrgyzstan -. Instead. And one of these states would have something to say about that. Uzbek supply lines would be measured in hundreds of meters. The Uzbek intelligence services are modeled after their Russian counterparts. It is the only one of the five that is both politically stable (if politically brittle) and that has the ability to project power. Uzbekistan began activating its reserves and reinforcing its Fergana border regions. But they do not have backup. Uzbekistan could interrupt nearly all Central Asian natural gas that currently flows to Russia without even launching a single attack. motive and opportunity. The Fergana is a long way from Russia. Turkmen. Even so. the Russian relationship with Kyrgyzstan is based neither on military strategy nor on economic rationality. Otunbayeva -. The interim government of Prime Minister Roza Otunbayeva is totally outmatched. Moscow is fairly confident that sending Russian peacekeepers to southern Kyrgyzstan would provoke a direct military confrontation with an angry and nervous Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan's ruling Karimov family is roundly hated both at home and abroad.strongholds of the previous government. the Russians still introduced their own demographic to help shape the region more to Moscow's liking. And without that population. the Russian view of the Fergana -. The Uzbek Goliath After the Russians and Ukrainians. Therefore. The region is remote and densely populated. This request cuts to the core weakness in the Russian strategy. In addition to the odd border spat.changes dramatically. it is based on the need to preserve a certain level of credibility and fear -. Were this the 19th century. cause riots in the Baltics to unbalance NATO members.has publicly and directly called upon the Russians to provide troops to help hold the country together. there would already be scads of Russian settlers en route to the Fergana to dilute the control of the locals (although they would certainly be arriving after the Russian army). now that they have the direct patronage of the Russian prime minister. Given Uzbek means.000 Kyrgyz residents have fled to Uzbekistan. In fact. violence has wracked the southern regions of Jalal-Abad. It is the only one of the five that has most of its cities in logical proximity and linked with decent infrastructure (even if it is split into the Tashkent region and the Fergana region by Stalinesque cartographic creativity). In STRATFOR's view. Russia's intelligence services remain without peer. nor can they resettle a population that could transform Kyrgyzstan. (The Turkmen natural gas that Russia's Gazprom normally depends upon travels to Russia via Uzbek territory. It is the only country of the five former Soviet states in the region that actually has a military that can engage in military action.) Instead. and the vast bulk of Russia's military is static. some 2. interspersing agents throughout the Uzbek population to ensure loyalty and to root out dissidents. Uzbekistan views many of the Russian strategies to expunge Western interests from Central Asia as preparation for moves against Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan also happens to be quite powerful by Central Asian standards. and reaching it requires transiting three countries. and especially Kyrgyz. there is no surplus Russian population that can be relocated to the provinces. They have proved that they can rewire Ukraine's political world to expunge American influence. Russia would win this war. Tashkent is not shy about noting that it thinks most Tajik. they have proportionally more resources and influence than ever. Since then. They are a Turkic people who do not enjoy particularly good relations with anyone. For the first time in Russian history. counterpart. That state is Uzbekistan. (It is worth noting that the resistance of Central Asians to Russian encroachment meant that the Russians never seriously attempted to make the region into a majority-Russian one. To top it all off. the Uzbeks are the most populous ethnicity in the former Soviet Union. The Russians have not forward-garrisoned a military force sufficient to protect Kyrgyzstan. to construct a local economy dependent upon imported labor and linked to the Russian core.Gonzaga Debate Institute 211 Warming Core again.

S. anytime. and just as the United States had no economic desire to be in Vietnam. Russia now faces a similar dilemma. Russia is attempting to finesse a middle ground by talking the Uzbeks down and offering the compromise of non-Russian troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. and triggered U. Cold War containment doctrine. This allowed the Soviet Union to choose the time and place of conflicts. under which the United States promised to aid any ally. a Russian-led military organization. It is a strategy strongly reminiscent of the U. the Americans provide a useful corollary: The U.except as it impacts Russian interests elsewhere. anywhere if in exchange they would help contain the Soviets. but neither the Uzbeks nor the challenges they pose are going anywhere. Moscow's strategy requires tools that the Russians no longer have. This may resolve the immediate crisis. But even victory over Uzbekistan would not solve the problem. The bottom line is this: Despite all of Russia's recent gains. Russia desperately needs to devote such resources elsewhere -. Occupying the region over the long haul to make sure that the victory is not worse than the status quo antebellum is a decade-to-generational effort that requires a significant expenditure of blood and treasure. involvement in places like Vietnam. Uzbekistan boasts very high demographic growth.S.Gonzaga Debate Institute 212 Warming Core protect Kyrgyzstan should push come to shove. Had the United States refused battle. as an alternative to Russian forces. "victory" over Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Taliban's Afghanistan proved that "winning" is the easy part.and this is before any power that wishes Russia ill begins exploring what it and the Uzbeks might achieve together. It requires Moscow delving into the subregional politics of places that could well bleed Russia dry -. and Kyrgyz fear of what Russia will do to it should they not sign on to the Russian sphere of influence. .particularly once the United States is no longer so preoccupied in the Middle East. the Russians really do not much care what happens to Kyrgyzstan -. Again. Smashing the only coherent government in the region would create a security vacuum. And unlike Russia. the American alliance structure could have crumbled.S.

Texas. Via Arctic waterways. an oil tanker only needs a week to make it from the Russian port city Murmansk on the Barents Sea to the east coast of Canada. At current market values they would be worth $1.1518. but it is great news for Pat Broe of Denver. it's not much further than from Texas to the Windy City.at least not for multinational oil companies. said Broe. The summers are getting longer and the pack ice is getting thinner. http://www.5 to $2 trillion. Temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are rising twice as fast as in the southern half. Of course.but Broe doesn't mind. is nothing big oil companies aren't happy to take on. The first cargo likely to be transported via the Northwest Passage is Russian oil from Siberia destined for North America.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 213 2NC-Russia. His friends laughed at him when he bought the run-down port in Churchill -.de/international/0. no explosions. the polar predators have to search for new hunting grounds or starve -. . What risk there is up north.00. A quarter of the world's oil and gas reserves are estimated to be hidden underneath its rapidly shrinking ice.AT: No investment Polar melting will create massive influx of investment to Russia Der Spiegel ‘6 (March 10. What could he possibly want with a harbor in one of the most deserted places on the planet that's frozen over a big chunk of the year? Wait and see.500 miles) by traveling over the pole. He only paid a symbolic price of seven dollars -. When the ice melts in the Arctic. By 2015 the North Pole is expected to be navigable for normal ships six months out of the year. The melting ice will also make it easier to get to oil and natural gas fields that are still blocked by pack ice.spiegel. Shrinking ice caps would reveal the Arctic's massive energy sources and shorten tanker routes by thousands of miles . with rising ocean temperatures comes an increased danger of icebergs.html) Global warming isn't necessarily the catastrophe it's made out to be -. Canada. And from Churchill to Chicago on the Hudson Bay Railway. That's only half the time it takes from Abu Dhabi on the Persian Gulf to Galveston. He knew that time was on his side. no kidnappings.a tiny outpost of a thousand souls on the Hudson Bay. There are even proven oil deposits at the North Pole itself. He figures global warming will make him around $100 million a year. AFP This NASA handout satellite image shows the minimum concentration of Arctic sea ice in 2005.000 kilometers (7.405320. Tankers from Venezuela to Japan can even save some 12. Ice-cap melting may be bad news for the polar bears in Manitoba. but at least the Arctic oil fields aren't in a region plagued by political instability.not a bad price for a port. It's then that a golden age will dawn upon Churchill. The Arctic is a giant treasure trove for energy multinationals. when the sea ice extent dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. No suicide bombers.

S. 2007 (Paul.” he added. It is no accident that Russia is one of the five veto-wielding. We should not overlook its many human rights and legal failures. and impressive Russian professionalism. Politico.S. It is key to supplying 100. Fourth. and Robert D. the most positive outcome of the thawing ocean could be “a true reconciliation between Russia.Graham. 2011 (10-31 -. Russia remains the only nation that can erase the United States from the map in 30 minutes. written about Russian politics.S. art and architecture for The Baltimore Sun. from James Bay to the High Arctic.N. troops fighting in Afghanistan and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. the Russian lifeline has grown ever more important and now accounts for half all daily deliveries.php?pageid=resources-arctic) “In particular. permanent members of the U. Relations solve extinction Allison. I imagine a world where international shipping can take the direct northern route linking Asian markets to Europe. government seeking to defend and advance its national interests. http://dyn. as well as a . Russia Profile. June. Alexander Ignatiev. Zellen mentions an emergence of a more efficient military supply distribution network.000 U. Third. “The economic and military impact will be enormous.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 214 2NC Russia Relation Arctic melting key to US-Russian relations Abelsky. Russian support in sharing intelligence and cooperating in operations remains essential to the U.org/page. an official at Russia’s Foreign Ministry who served as head of Senior Arctic Officials at the Arctic Council. No one denies that Russia is a dangerous. and the full integration of Russia into a Western security alliance.russiaprofile. Through a combination of more than $11 billion in U. secure sea lanes for the shipping of strategic commodities.” not one nuclear weapon has been found loose. the United States and the West. difficult. Russia is a player whose choices affect our vital interests in nuclear security and energy. within our lifetimes and possibly in less than a single generation. Russia is the world’s largest oil producer and second largest gas producer. war to destroy Al Qaeda and combat other transnational terrorist groups. First. we may witness the opening up of Arctic sea lanes that are fully navigable year round. http://www. says the socio-economic plight in the country’s northern regions prompted Russia to put emphasis on this dimension of the institution’s agenda.S.cfm?uuid=161EF282 -72F9-4D488B9C-C5B3396CA0E6) That central point is that Russia matters a great deal to a U. Russia’s cooperation is critical to averting nuclear war. Seventh. aid. provided through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program. realistic policies. and the social impacts could also be both powerful and positive. Moscow is an important player in today’s international system. Americans feel Russia’s impact at our gas pumps.S. Russia prioritized the social aspect of development in the Arctic during its chairmanship of the Arctic Council from 2004 to 2006. writer. Most major energy transport routes from Eurasia start in Russia or cross its nine time zones. Blackwill. two decades after the collapse of the “evil empire.” Even with the increasing security and economic strains. Russian choices to sell or withhold sensitive technologies are the difference between failure and the possibility of success. Kennedy has recognized. Sixth. troops fighting in Afghanistan.politico. As every president since John F. the United States and allied Asian nations to operate securely across the top of the world to bolster military bases and troops deployed in distant military theaters.S. “10 Reasons Why Russia Still Matters”. Ultimately. Russia has added more oil and gas exports to world energy markets than any other nation. he says. and Former Assistant Secretary of Defense. As Washington seeks to stop Iran’s drive toward nuclear weapons.000 U. Fifth. San Francisco Chronicle. Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations. Nonetheless. Russia plays an essential role in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missile-delivery systems. Ten realities require U. relations with Pakistan have deteriorated.com/printstory. Over the past decade. Director – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School. often disappointing state to do business with. Russia provides a vital supply line to 100. As citizens of a country that imports two of every three of the 20 million barrels of oil that fuel U.” Among other likely benefits. Security Council. Toronto Star.S. As U. cutting consumption of fuel and reducing carbon emissions from the shorter shipping routes. 2011. Second. enabling northern oil producers to deliver product to market without having to navigate through chokepoints vulnerable to terrorism. Russia is our most consequential partner in preventing nuclear terrorism. policymakers to advance our nation’s interests by engaging and working with Moscow. Chicago Tribune. the potential for maritime commerce to stimulate the economic development of Arctic ports. cars daily. enabling NATO. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s decision to return next year as president makes it all the more critical for Washington to manage its relationship with Russia through coherent. Director – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School.S.

S. places first in most math competitions and dominates the world chess masters list. abutting China on the East.S. economy. Consider what a Russian president intent on frustrating U. Security Council resolutions. Ninth. . This territory provides transit corridors for supplies to global markets whose stability is vital to the U. Tenth. astronauts can now travel to and from the International Space Station is to hitch a ride on Russian rockets. Poland in the West and the United States across the Arctic.S. Google. is Russian-born Sergei Brin.Gonzaga Debate Institute 215 Warming Core member of the G-8 and G-20. Eighth. international objectives could do — from stopping the supply flow to Afghanistan to selling S-300 air defense missiles to Tehran to joining China in preventing U. The co-founder of the most advanced digital company in the world. goals would be significant in the balance of power to shape an environment in which China can emerge as a global power without overturning the existing order.S. A Moscow more closely aligned with U. Russia’s brainpower is reflected in the fact that it has won more Nobel Prizes for science than all of Asia. The only way U. Russia is the largest country on Earth by land area. Russia’s potential as a spoiler is difficult to exaggerate.N.

As for the Arctic. First. the new Panama Canal won’t be able to service the next generation of ships. Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises. fringes of the Arctic. Though largely symbolic.000 miles shorter than going through the Panama or Suez canals. National Snow and Ice Data Center. The fabled passage through the Arctic Ocean connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans along the northern coast of North America. Panama plans to deepen its channels and make them wider. The Panama Canal is even smaller. 1999). doubling every 10-15 years. Texas. measured by tonnage. although he suggests that the causes and . Mayer is a veteran of the banking industry. Why the sudden interest in the Arctic? There are two big reasons. A freer-flowing Arctic Ocean would also bring fish stocks north . but not the next generation. Several notable contributions follow. But the cracking open of new trade routes or reopening of old ones . Much shorter shipping distances and quicker shipping times will lower the cost of doing business.” Economic growth is key to prevent major wars Royal . The Arctic thaw’s more immediate and bigger impact will be as a shipping lane.S. 2007 [Daily Reckoning Australia. specifically in the area of corporate lending.S.” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic. alone could lay claim to more than 200. “Leading world powers have an unprecedented chance to win navigation rights and ownership of resources in the Arctic seabed The U. 21.” reports the U.with fishing fleets not far behind. increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon. “Analysts… confirm that the passage is almost completely clear and that the region is more open than it has ever been since the advent of routine monitoring in 1972.au/northwestpassage/2007/10/10/] It started with a Russian expedition planting the Russian flag in a polar seabed. even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. it took the famed Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen and his team nearly two years to pick their way through the ice and narrow waterways. this one has a long fuse. Among these claimants: the U.000 square miles of additional undersea territory. ed. Goldsmith and Brauer. Department of Defense. So it looks like the world will have a new navigable ocean with the Northwest Passage. As such.always has ripple effects across financial markets. “A ship traveling at 21 knots between Rotterdam and Yokohama takes 29 days if it goes via the Cape of Good Hope. exogenous shocks such as economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. But even so. it touched off a scramble among a handful of nations. He is the editor of Mayer's Special Situations and Capital and Crisis .com. Alternatively. It could mean a new boom in fishing for salmon. The effects on trade could be immense.basically. The Suez Canal can still handle the largest current container ships. the volume of container shipments has grown 5-7% annually . herring and smelt. And as I’ve noted in the past. Legal and Political Perspectives. 2010 (Jedediah Royal. thanks to global warming. specifically in the area of corporate lending. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. and the old canals can’t hold these new seafaring beasts of burden as they once did. certainly. dyadic and national levels. It could lead to big increases in trade and. and easier-to-get-at resources still exist on the First. “Economic Integration. The ships carrying those containers are getting bigger. Russia and Denmark. October 10th. That is about half the time it takes to get an oil tanker from Abu Dhabi to Galveston. Canada. “Northwest Passage Reopens Shipping Routes With Global Economic Impact”.and their impact on global trade . 1995). As an oil and gas story. A financial writer since 1998.. 2010. medium and small powers. It’s too small for ships that are now common on longer shipping routes. the rapid surge in trade with China and India is putting a lot of strain on ports around the world. Seperately.S. from the Mises. More than 90% of all goods in the world.dailyreckoning. Mr. the Northwest Passage has got to be one of the most important new developments on that front in a long time. finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. To pass through here from China on your way to Europe is about 5. As the Financial Times observes. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. It could also mean that sleepy old ports could become important new hubs in international trade. a veteran of the banking industry. Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U. deposits of natural resources once layered over in impenetrable ice are now easier to get at. In the early 1900s. all trying to lay claim to the Arctic. The climate is incredibly harsh. Department of Defense. In recent years. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major. The available resources are still a long way from being developed. the Northwest Passage has been open to navigation and free of ice for the first time. Second. The specific investment implications of this are still too early to say.formerly the Fleet Street Letter.this is key to the global economy Mayer. cod.S.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 216 2NC Econ Impact Warming causes arctic melting.S. some previously icebound shipping lanes like the Northwest Passage are opening up. 22 days via the Suez Canal and just 15 days if it goes across the Arctic Ocean. http://www. untouched since its emergence during the twilight of the dinosaurs. Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory. Since Aug. Now the Northwest Passage could revolutionize shipping. make their way by sea. As the Financial Times recently wrote.org Daily Article series to here in The Daily Reckoning. on the systemic level. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic. p.” An oil tanker could make the trip from the Russian port city of Murmansk to the east coast of Canada in a week by crossing the Arctic Ocean. thanks to melting ice. a major shift in sea lanes. Mayer's essays have appeared in a wide variety of publications.

sitting governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a ‘rally around the flag’ effect. and thus weak Presidential popularity. . Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict. which in turn returns the favor. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. and Blomberg. particularly during periods of economic downturn. and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states. if the expectations of future trade decline. due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources. However. Hess. whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Moreover. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict. crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. They write. (Blomberg & Hess. & Weerapana. the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. 2002. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States. which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Gelpi (1997). Hess. Copeland’s (1996. Miller (1999). the likelihood for conflict increases. In summary. Third. 2000) theory 217 of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavious of states. on a dyadic level. Wang (1996). dyadic and national levels. others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. This implied connection between integration. Furthermore. are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. Crisis could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. DeRouen (1995). 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. P. 2004). when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline. recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises. ‘Diversionary theory’ suggests that. Second.

whether the cause is environmental. the father of the nuclear disarmament movement. It's U. and Arctic seaways would allow for greater international economic integration. Arctic routes would force further competition between the Panama and Suez Canals. labor or paranoia about global government. When the ice recedes enough. http://www. Manhattan through the Northwest Passage to test whether it was a viable route for moving Arctic oil to the Eastern Seaboard. Some Seattle protesters clearly fancy themselves to be in the mold of nuclear disarmament or anti-Vietnam War protesters of decades past. many people have good jobs at Qualcomm. they have a major disincentive to wage war. As soon as marine insurers recalculate the risks involved in these voyages.S. privately held newspaper business. Solar Turbines and other companies for whom overseas markets are essential. companies that make high-tech goods. In Seattle. both of whom urged people and nations to work together rather than strive against each other. and the Hudson Bay port of Churchill. shipping chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca would no longer dictate global shipping patterns. but also to forestall conflict with other nations. a budding superpower. Coast Guard. The specter of nuclear winter freezing the life out of planet Earth seemed very real. In 1969.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 218 2NC Trade Impact Arctic melting key to free trade Borgerson. it's not the military-industrial complex benefiting. in Canada. which would most likely run between Iceland and Alaska's Dutch Harbor. Many anti-trade protesters in Seattle claim that only multinational corporations benefit from global trade.foreignaffairs. but later based in La Jolla. 2008 (Scott G. most of the demonstrators in Seattle are very much unlike yesterday's peace activists.” Foreign Affairs. would connect shipping megaports in the North Atlantic with those in the North Pacific and radiate outward to other ports in a hub-and-spoke system. likely within this decade. March/April 2008. Actually. founded in Illinois. First of all. That's why bringing China.com/articles/63222/scott-g-borgerson/arctic-meltdown#) Arctic shipping could also dramatically affect global trade patterns. and their economies are built on exports to other countries. California. And those companies provide a growing number of jobs for Americans. But they're not. As exports to the United States and the rest of the world feed Chinese prosperity.S. oil companies sent the S. thereby reducing current canal tolls. The truth is that nations join together in groups like the WTO not just to further their own prosperity. but oil companies soon deemed the route impractical and prohibitively expensive and opted instead for an Alaskan pipeline. Activists protesting the World Trade Organization's meeting in Seattle apparently have forgotten that threat. the threat of hostility diminishes. such as Beatle John Lennon or philosopher Bertrand Russell. reducing long-haul sailing distances by as much as 40 percent could usher in a new phase of globalization. and that prosperity increases demand for the goods we produce. In San Diego. They're special-interest activists. which is connected to the North American rail network. That's just plain wrong.99 (December 1) For decades. many of the 100. Such a route. A fast lane is now under development between the Arctic port of Murmansk. in Russia. In a way. and with increasing fuel costs eating into the profits of shipping companies. a marine highway directly over the North Pole will materialize. March/April 2008. International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Lieutenant Commander in the U. into the WTO is so important. These and other war protesters would probably approve of 135 WTO nations sitting down peacefully to discuss economic issues that in the past might have been settled by bullets and bombs. As long as nations are trading peacefully. our planet has traded in the threat of a worldwide nuclear war for the benefit of cooperative global economics. transArctic shipping will become commercially viable and begin on a large scale. and that it's the everyday wage earners who get hurt. Trade solves Nuclear War Copley News Service.“Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming. In an age of just-in-time delivery.000 people who work at Boeing would lose their .S. The Manhattan completed the voyage with the help of accompanying icebreakers.Its flagship paper was The San Diego Union-Tribune. many children in America and other countries went to bed fearing annihilation by nuclear war. But today such voyages are fast becoming economically feasible.

That's a lot of jobs for everyday workers. Foreign trade today accounts for 30 percent of our gross domestic product. Growing global prosperity has helped counter the specter of nuclear winter. . like the singers of anti-war songs once imagined. Nations of the world are learning to live and work together. Those who care about world peace shouldn't be protesting world trade. They should be celebrating it.Gonzaga Debate Institute 219 Warming Core livelihoods without world trade.

the notion that rises in surface air temperatures in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be larger in the Arctic than elsewhere over the globe.smh. As these open water areas develop through spring and summer. However." Dr Stroeve told The Independent ahead of her presentation today.html A natural cause may account for much of the recent dramatic thawing of the Arctic region. a study by scientists from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado has found that amplification is already showing up as a marked increase in surface air temperatures within the Arctic region during the autumn period. was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15 years and the findings will further raise concerns that the Arctic has already passed the climatic tipping-point towards ice-free summers. for instance. "The observed autumn warming that we've seen over the Arctic Ocean.independent. “Natural causes behind Arctic warming.2008( Steve. In the Beaufort Sea. "In autumn. “Has the Arctic melt passed the point of no return?”. most of the heat that was gained in the ocean during summer is released back to the atmosphere. The phenomenon. scientists will show that Arctic amplification has been under way for the past five years. beyond which it may not recover. said that autumn air temperatures this year and in recent years have been anomalously high. degree in zoology from the University of Oxford. acting to warm the atmosphere. of the NSIDC. The Arctic Ocean warmed more than usual because heat from the sun was absorbed more easily by the dark areas of open water compared to the highly reflective surface of a frozen sea.html Scientists have found the first unequivocal evidence that the Arctic region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world at least a decade before it was predicted to happen. near-surface air temperatures were more than 7C higher than normal for this time of year. they absorb most of the sun's energy. they have not until now detected the definitive temperature signal that they could link with greenhouse-gas emissions.com. New research indicates a natural and cyclical increase in the amount of energy in the atmosphere that moves from south to north around the Arctic Circle. However. "One of the reasons we focus on Arctic amplification is that it is a good test of greenhouse . known as Arctic amplification. according to the study published in the journal Nature Too late Connor. The scientists believe the only reasonable explanation for such high autumn readings is that the ocean heat accumulated during the summer because of the loss of sea ice is being released back into the atmosphere from the sea before winter sea ice has chance to reform. Although researchers have documented a catastrophic loss of sea ice during the summer months over the past 20 years. represents Arctic amplification. Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is accumulating heat in the ocean. in addition to man-made global warming. "The warming climate is leading to more open water in the Arctic Ocean.” 1/6/2008. It is this heat-release back to the atmosphere that gives us Arctic amplification. who led the study with her colleague Mark Serreze. leading to ocean warming. as well more indirect effects around the world. when the sea ice begins to reform after the summer melting period. north of Alaska.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-melt-passes-the-point-of--no-return-1128197." she said. 12/16/2008. http://news.co. The Arctic is considered one of the most sensitive regions in terms of climate change and its transition to another climatic state will have a direct impact on other parts of the northern hemisphere. a new study finds. in a study to be presented later today to the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.The Independent.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 220 AFF – 2AC At Russia Warming turn Arctic melting is natural – we don’t stop it. not just this year but over the past five years or so. as the sun sets in the Arctic." Temperature readings for this October were significantly higher than normal across the entire Arctic region – between 3C and 5C above average – but some areas were dramatically higher. Computer models of the global climate have for years suggested the Arctic will warm at a faster rate than the rest of the world due to Arctic amplification but many scientists believed this effect would only become measurable in the coming decades. Sydney Morning Herald. "Autumn 2008 saw very strong surface temperature anomalies over the areas where the sea ice was lost. Julienne Stroeve. and it will continue to intensify Arctic warming for the foreseeable future.au/world/natural-causes-behind-arctic-warming-20080106-1kdm. http://www.

cfm) Some people argue that cold countries are likely to be climate change “winners. That single event destroyed a third of Russia’s wheat crop. it is hard to see Russia being a climate-change winner.c2es.” For example." she added.org/global-warming-basics/faq_s/glance_faq_science. and open up transportation routes and access to mineral and energy deposits in the Arctic. Climate change internally link turns the DA C2ES. due primarily to the influence of projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. it's a case of we hate to say we told you so. Simply put. perhaps within the next 20 years." Dr Stroeve said. while neglecting a plethora of more complex and likely negative impacts. warmer temperatures in Russia could reduce heating fuel consumption.000 people and shaved $123 billion off Russia’s GDP. but many scientists now believe that the first ice-free summer could occur far earlier than this. Computer models have also predicted totally ice-free summers in the Arctic by 2070.” If these events do become common in future decades. lengthen the agricultural growing season. But these types of analyses inevitably focus on a few simplistic variables." http://www. Results of a recent peer-reviewed scientific study “suggest that we may be on the cusp of a period in which the probability of such events increases rapidly. Consider the many negative effects of the extreme heat wave Russia experienced in summer 2010. "This is exactly what we are not starting to see in the observations. . Even our earliest climate models were telling us that we should see this Arctic amplification emerge as we lose the summer ice cover. 2011 (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions . The heat wave killed 15. world’s top environmental think tank. but we did.successor to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.Gonzaga Debate Institute 221 Warming Core warming theory. which caused food prices to rise globally. "Science FAQs. prompting Russia to suspend grain exports. and recently named the world’s top environmental think tank.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 222 ***SO2 Screw*** .

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1NC – SO2 Screw
CUTTING EMISSIONS WASHES SULFATE AEROSOLS OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE – CAUSES RAPID WARMING
Connor, Science Editor of the Independent London, 1990 *Steve, Science Editor of The Independent (London), “Carbon dioxide cuts 'may heat up earth'”, The Independent (London), August 19, 1990, pg. 7] MAN'S attempts to halt the greenhouse effect by cutting carbon dioxide emissions could make the world even hotter, scientists have warned. The latest research challenges the conventional wisdom about the best way to stop global warming: to burn less coal and oil and thus release smaller amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Scientists say that, if fewer fossil fuels were burnt, there would be a reduction in the release of sulphur dioxide as well as of carbon dioxide - and their research suggests that sulphur dioxide has been keeping the world cooler than it would otherwise have become as a result of the Industrial Revolution. Professor Tom Wigley, of the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, says in the current issue of Physics World that sulphur dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a much shorter time than carbon dioxide. Cutting both gases would thus remove sulphur dioxide more quickly. ''The first response of the climate system to a fossil-fuel cutback might therefore be a warming rather than a cooling,'' he says. Professor Wigley, one of the world's leading experts on climate, reached this conclusion after a new study of the role of sulphur emissions by a team of researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. Factories and power stations release thousands of tons of sulphur dioxide over land in the northern hemisphere by burning fossil fuels. Some of this falls back to Earth in the form of acid rain, and some wafts out to sea where it is converted into sulphates. Once over the sea, sulphates act as tiny particles for water vapour to condense, and so are important in the formation of clouds which block sunlight and keep the oceans cool. Without sulphates, fewer clouds would form and sea temperatures would rise. The suggestion was first made nearly 20 years ago, but with little evidence to support it. It was revived more recently, but researchers thought that sulphates could result from marine algae rather than industrial sources. So important is sulphur dioxide in the formation of clouds that the Lawrence Livermore researchers believe man-made emissions of sulphur dioxide could account for the fact that global warming since the Industrial Revolution has been less than predicted from known increases in carbon dioxide emissions over the past 100 years.''A 1C rise is indicated but we've only seen about 0.5C,'' said Dr Joyce Penner of the Lawrence Livermore laboratory. ''Man- made emissions of sulphur dioxide may explain why we haven't seen the magnitude of warming we expected.''

The loss of sulfate aerosols will have a rapid impact on climate change
Henson 98, Director at University Coperation for Atmospheric Research, 1998 *Bob, National Center for Atmospheric Research, “Particles of Doubt”, April 10, http://www.ucar.edu/communications/highlights/1998/particles.html] Sulfates are sprinters in the climate race: they stay in the atmosphere only a few days to weeks before falling or raining out. In contrast, greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide are marathon runners, remaining airborne for years, even centuries. Because they have so little time to roam, sulfates tend to affect the climate mainly over regions where they're emitted. Their short lifespan also means that any big change in sulfur emissions might have a relatively prompt impact on local climate (although weather patterns would likely create too much "noise" for scientists to directly detect such a link). In the United States, where concern over acid rain led to stringent regulation in the 1970s and 1980s, sulfur emissions have gradually stabilized. However, they are rising quickly in regions like China, India, and Southeast Asia.

Aerosols guarantee slow warming, but rapid warming will CAUSE EXTINCTION
Freedman, senior science writer for Climate Central, 2005 *Andrew, “Keep warming below threshold to avert 'runaway climate change,' report says”, Greenwire, January 25, 2005+

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Industrialized nations must join developing countries to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius -- or 3.6 degrees Farenheit -- above pre-industrial levels, according to a report released yesterday by the International Climate Change Task Force. Temperature increases beyond that level would increase the risk for

disruption of human societies and natural systems, and potentially bring about abrupt or "runaway climate change," the report says. The task force, led by former British cabinet Secretary Stephen Byers and

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), was established under the auspices of the Institute for Public Policy Research in Britain, the Center for American Progress in the United States, and the Australia Institute. Calling itself a "unique international cross-party, cross-sector collaboration," the task force says its goal is to propose ways to bring the United States and Australia, which both rejected the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions, back into multilateral negotiations on climate change. It is also meant to inform the next meeting of the group of eight nations, which will be led by Blair and feature climate change as a key topic. The report "provides ambitious but achievable policy solutions that reach across partisan lines and national boundaries to build momentum for a new global energy agenda that can make important progress on this critical problem," said Center for American Progress President and Chief Executive Officer John Podesta in a statement. The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which led to the Kyoto agreement, committed signatories to averting "dangerous" human interference with the climate system but left open the question of what would constitute such interference. "Scientific evidence suggests that there is a threshold of temperature increase above which the extent and magnitude of the impacts of climate change increase sharply," the report states. The 2 degrees Celsius threshold has been increasingly discussed in scientific and policy circles during the past few years and has been adopted as official policy by the European Union, which represents the largest bloc of countries participating in the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, the United States has steered clear of any such predictions of a threshold level that would constitute dangerous human interference under the UNFCCC. "No one can say with certainty what that threshold is, but it is important that we make an educated judgment at this time based on the best available science," the task force report states. It found that a net warming of about 2 degrees Celsius likely would be associated with carbon dioxide concentrations above 400 parts per million, a level that is likely to be surpassed on a business as usual emissions scenario as early as the next few decades. The emissions picture is a complicated one, in part because some of the warming effects of the CO2 are blunted by atmospheric particles such as sulfate aerosols, which exert a cooling influence on the climate.

Decreases in sulfur emissions will cause warming due to an increase in methane emissions from wetlands and a decrease in radiative forcing
Gauci, Professor of Earth Sciences, Open University, 2004 [Vincent Gauci, Department of Earth Sciences, Open University, “Sulfur pollution suppression of the wetland methane source in the 20th and 21st centuries”, Environmental Sciences, http://cepsar.open.ac.uk/pers/v.gauci/pics/d39285.pdf] Our estimates of the combined effects of climate change, sulfate aerosol radiative effects, and SDEP (GHGAEROSDEP) on CH4 emissions show that anthropogenic SDEP may have been sufficient to have decreased the global wetland CH4 source to a level below preindustrial estimates by 10–15 Tg during the second half of the 20th century (Fig. 3). The combined effect of SO4 2 aerosols (cooling) and SO4 2-deposition (limiting methane production at the source by microbial competition) are predicted to offset the effect of GHG warming on CH4 emissions by 26 Tg in 2030 and by 15 Tg in 2080. In this scenario, CH4 emissions will exceed preindustrial emissions by 14 Tg by 2080. The influence of production and deposition of oxidized sulfur compounds through economic growth in North America and Europe between 1960 and 1980, followed by increases in the economic growth in South America, Africa, and (primarily) Asia, are responsible for this pattern. Beyond 2030, however, a decline is predicted in sulfur pollution because of anticipated cleaner technologies. Together with the additional effect of enhanced greenhouse warming, we predict this reduction in sulfur pollution will result in a rapid increase in CH4 emission (15% enhancement between 2030 and 2080) that may exacerbate climate warming during that time.

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This evidence is particularly devastating for them, not only is it a link to both of our climate turns, but it proves that the turns function simultaneously and are consistent. If they appear in the literature and the studies together, there is no inconsistency between them. Also, we only need to win one of these scenarios to access our rapid warming impacts.

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2NC – Overview
DECREASING EMISSIONS AS A WHOLE CAUSES Loss of sulfate – they wash out of the environment within days and cause massive warming. Happens literally centuries before your warming impact – THAT’S HENSON Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols cool the earth and cancel out global warming, but they are extremely short-lived
NASA Atmospheric Sciences Division, 1996 *“Atmospheric Aerosols: What Are They, and Why Are They So Important?”, NASA.gov, August 1996, http://oea.larc.nasa.gov/PAIS/Aerosols.html] The third type of aerosol comes from human activities. While a large fraction of human-made aerosols come in the form of smoke from burning tropical forests, the major component comes in the form of sulfate aerosols created by the burning of coal and oil. The concentration of human-made sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere has grown rapidly since the start of the industrial revolution. At current production levels, human-made sulfate aerosols are thought to outweigh the naturally produced sulfate aerosols. The concentration of aerosols is highest in the northern hemisphere where industrial activity is centered. The sulfate aerosols absorb no sunlight but they reflect it, thereby reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Sulfate aerosols are believed to survive in the atmosphere for about 3-5 days. The sulfate aerosols also enter clouds where they cause the number of cloud droplets to increase but make the droplet sizes smaller. The net effect is to make the clouds reflect more sunlight than they would without the presence of the sulfate aerosols. Pollution from the stacks of ships at sea has been seen to modify the low-lying clouds above them. These changes in the cloud droplets, due to the sulfate aerosols from the ships, have been seen in pictures from weather satellites as a track through a layer of clouds. In addition to making the clouds more reflective, it is also believed that the additional aerosols cause polluted clouds to last longer and reflect more sunlight than non-polluted clouds. Climatic Effects of Aerosols The additional reflection caused by pollution aerosols is expected to have an effect on the climate comparable in magnitude to that of increasing concentrations of atmospheric gases. The effect of the aerosols, however, will be opposite to the effect of the increasing atmospheric trace gases - cooling instead of warming the atmosphere.

NEW LINK – Decreases in sulfur emissions will cause warming due to an increase in methane emissions from wetlands and a decrease in radiative forcing
Gauci, Professor of Earth Sciences, Open University, 2004 [Vincent Gauci, Department of Earth Sciences, Open University, “Sulfur pollution suppression of the wetland methane source in the 20th and 21st centuries”, Environmental Sciences, http://cepsar.open.ac.uk/pers/v.gauci/pics/d39285.pdf] Our estimates of the combined effects of climate change, sulfate aerosol radiative effects, and SDEP (GHGAEROSDEP) on CH4 emissions show that anthropogenic SDEP may have been sufficient to have decreased the global wetland CH4 source to a level below preindustrial estimates by 10–15 Tg during the second half of the 20th century (Fig. 3). The combined effect of SO4 2- aerosols (cooling) and SO4 2-deposition (limiting methane production at the source by microbial competition) are predicted to offset the effect of GHG warming on CH4 emissions by 26 Tg in 2030 and by 15 Tg in 2080. In this scenario, CH4 emissions will exceed preindustrial emissions by 14 Tg by 2080. The influence of production and deposition of oxidized sulfur compounds through economic growth in North America and Europe between 1960 and 1980, followed by increases in the economic growth in South America, Africa, and (primarily) Asia, are responsible for this pattern. Beyond 2030, however, a decline is predicted in sulfur pollution because of anticipated cleaner technologies. Together with the additional effect of enhanced greenhouse warming, we predict this reduction in sulfur pollution will result in a rapid increase in CH4 emission (15% enhancement between 2030 and 2080) that may exacerbate climate warming during that time.

and dimethyl sulfide may be used by MA but are poorly used by SRB (18. Natural (nonrice agriculture) wetlands are the world’s largest single CH4 source and are estimated to currently contribute between 110 and 260 Tg (Tg 1012 g) to the global methane budget (2). Our findings suggest that by 2030 sulfur pollution may be sufficient to reduce CH4 emissions by 26 Tg or 15% of the total wetland source. Environmental Sciences. SRB have a higher affinity for both hydrogen and acetate than MA. Open University. plant species composition is an important factor in determining the effect of experimental N additions on CH4 fluxes (10). under ideal conditions. 21). sulfate reduction in wetlands partially. which. however.uk/pers/v. the balance between sulfate reduction and methanogenesis is affected by factors such as the temperature [warmer temperatures favor methanogenesis (15)]. of which one-third is derived from temperate and boreal northern wetlands (3). and acetate concentrations add a fair degree of plasticity over controls on acetate-fermenting MA228228228228228228 (11). “Sulfur pollution suppression of the wetland methane source in the 20th and 21st centuries”.pdf] Natural wetlands form the largest source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere..228 . However. although a similar stimulatory effect of nitrogen pollution on wetland CH4 emission has not always been identified (8–10) because of differing effects nitrogen has on the ecosystem. rather than completely. This study. CH4 is produced by two different groups of methanogenic archaea (MA). it has been recently demonstrated that climate. 2004 [Vincent Gauci. responding positively to increases in temperature and rainfall as microbial activity and anaerobic conditions increase and negatively to cool temperatures and drought (4. Open University. and both are suppressed by another group of anaerobic microorganisms. Acetate-fermenting MA tend to dominate in more nutrient-rich peatlands and in summer. Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas (GHG) that is responsible for an estimated 22% of the present anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse effect (1). and the other obtains energy by oxidizing molecular hydrogen to H2 O by using CO2. in field trials. As a consequence. 5). when the supply of labile organic carbon is relatively high. the rate of SO4 2 and acetate supply [lower concentrations of sulfate or higher concentrations of acetate reduce the intensity of competition (13)]. Stimulation of sulfate reduction has been exploited as a mechanism to reduce GHG emissions from rice paddies. We apply a model of this relationship to demonstrate the potential effect of changes in global sulfate deposition from 1960 to 2080 on both northern peatland and global wetland CH4 emissions.g. CH4 emissions have been reduced by as much as 72% with doses of gypsum (CaSO4) ranging from several hundred to thousands of kilograms of SO4 2 per hectare (ha) (20. In wetlands. reducing CH4 emissions by 15 Tg or 8% smaller than it would be in the absence of global acid deposition. Sulfate aerosols prevent methane production by keeping the wetlands cool and encouraging sulfur-reducing bacteria. a proportion as large as other components of the CH4 budget that have until now received far greater attention. 19)].gauci/pics/d39285. one group obtains energy by the fermentation of simple organic compounds. such as acetate to CO2 and CH4. depth of the acrotelm.ac. Department of Earth Sciences.open. 17) and some substrates such as methanol. We estimate that sulfur pollution may currently counteract climate-induced growth in the wetland source. combining our field and controlled environment manipulation studies in Europe and North America. methanethiol. preventing a massive spike in global warming Gauci. wetlands are also subject to the effects of aerial pollution and increasing CO2 levels. reveals an additional control: an emergent pattern of increasing suppression of methane (CH4) emission from peatlands with increasing sulfate (SO4 2 -S) deposition. 14). We conclude that documented increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration since the late 19th century are likely due to factors other than the global warming of wetlands. inhibits methane production (19).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 228 Natural wetlands and rice paddies are a potentially huge source of methane. within the range of global acid deposition. sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) (12). Emission of this powerful greenhouse gas from wetlands is known to depend on climate. CH4 emissions from wetlands are climatesensitive. which is reduced to CH4. http://cepsar. with increasing temperature and rainfall both expected to increase methane emissions. The stimulatory effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations on CH4 emission (by enhancement of net primary productivity) is well reported (6–8). a potent greenhouse gas. Both groups of microorganisms are strictly anaerobic. e. Professor of Earth Sciences. and the availability of noncompetitive substrates [some low molecular weight hydrocarbons may be preferentially used over acetate by SRB (16. enables them to maintain the pool of these substrates at concentrations too low for MA to use (13. Like many other ecosystems.

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a tiny pump sucks aerosol-laden air into a chamber. the claims that it is only regional or insufficient to counter warming are based on old and discarded data Berreby 93 (David. Professor Crutzen has proposed a method of artificially cooling the global climate by releasing particles of sulphur in the upper atmosphere. stunting forests. Professor Paul Crutzen. he says that an "escape route" is needed if global warming begins to run out of control. Nobel laureates in atmospheric physics agree Connor. “The parasol effect . including two other collaborators and old friends of Charlson’s from Stockholm University. Science Editor of The Independent (London). Many other climate experts were there also. and it yielded a crucial variable in acid rain--the distribution of sulfur in the air after it leaves the pollution centers that create it. “Scientist publishes escape route from global warming”. Sulfate aerosols were recognized as the key culprit in the acid rain that is killing lake fish. of the Earth. Science Editor of The Independent (London). Henning Rodhe and Joakim Langner. Charlson can accurately measure how much light is being deflected by aerosols in the .century faux-medieval castle in Bavaria. Aerosols counter global warming. At one end of the chamber is an electric light detector--the technologically more sophisticated great. The effect of scattering sulphate particles in the atmosphere would be to increase the reflectance. of those electric eyes that open doors and set off alarms. in the 1980s. Charlson recalls. roughly the size and shape of a bazooka. as well as new and more accurate computer models of wind patterns and chemical mixing in the lower atmosphere and of the dispersal of particles on those winds. Charlson says. Belfast Telegraph. of course. July 31. and corroding buildings and equipment in Europe and North America. His mind wandered back to the Swedes’ model. by altering the chemical makeup of Earth's upper atmosphere. Science. On one side of the cylindrical chamber. Charlson says now. with an invention dubbed the nephelometer (nephelos is the Greek word for cloud). http://www.findarticles. Charlson won his first patent for measuring such scattering nearly 30 years ago. who won a Nobel Prize in 1995 for his work on the hole in the ozone layer. who were showing off one of these improved computer models. with his longtime collaborator Bert Bolin of Stockholm University. Then. which should cause an overall cooling effect. or "albedo". Fortunately. We didn’t get the geographical extent of sulfates right. The new Swedish model was the first devised to process data about industrial activity and weather. one of the talks after theirs was very boring. Out of this focus on the problem came better techniques for measuring emissions. sulfate haze began to register as more than a technical problem for tourists and bomber pilots.sulfate aerosols block sun's rays and may cause cooling”.grandson. 2006 [Steve. By determining how much light makes it through an air sample to the light detector. Charlson himself.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 230 2NC – Aerosols Solve Warming Aerosol cooling is valid science. Through an inlet on the bottom. In early 1990 this led to a big break. It’s gunmetal gray. which would reflect sunlight and heat back into space. Charlson was attending a meeting on sulfates in a huge nineteenth. The acid rain problem led to more support for research into sulfates. a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany. We were guessing as to numbers. which--not surprisingly--predicted strikingly high concentrations of sulfates throughout the heavily industrialized Northern Hemisphere and related that finding to acid rain. believes that political attempts to limit man-made greenhouse gases are so pitiful that a radical contingency plan is needed. The controversial proposal is being taken seriously by scientists because Professor Crutzen has a proven track record in atmospheric research. is a halogen movie-projector lamp.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_n7_v14/ai_13923194/print) Indeed. A fleet of high-altitude balloons could be used to scatter the sulphur high overhead. We had made a mistake. or it could even be fired into the atmosphere using heavy artillery shells. wrote a paper in the mid1970s that said aerosols could not have much impact on global climate. In a polemical scientific essay to be published in the August issue of the journal Climate Change. Staff Writer. about halfway down its length. said Professor Crutzen. But they hadn’t related such levels of sulfates to one of Charlson’s areas of expertise--optical scattering. The prototype still sits on a bookshelf in his office. 2006+ A Nobel Prize-winning scientist has drawn up an emergency plan to save the world from global warming. We didn’t have the global chemical model.

listening to the high figures for sulfates that the Swedish model yielded. if there were no indirect sulfate cooling. ‘Look at this!’ That was the light bulb. he saw. Yet according to surface. That was a Thursday. I was due to see them in Stockholm the next week. World Climate Report. to get the amount of scattering in meters squared per gram of material in the air.Gonzaga Debate Institute 231 Warming Core sample. That gives you an amount of sulfate per cubic meter of air. It gives you the ‘scattering efficiency. That may not sound like much--very roughly. with the majority in recent decades. according to some estimates. with my light-scattering calculations incorporated. a new model. To get a complete measure of optical scattering. spread out over an average desktop. It’s also. the observed warming averaged over the troposphere since the three histories became concurrently available (since January 1979). get the particles out of it. The computer model confirmed his rough calculation.3°C by now.worldclimatereport. it’s perhaps a fifth of the amount of heat put out by a Christmas-tree light bulb. But that’s enough to cool Earth substantially. I grabbed Langner and Rodhe and said. Feb 19. you make a measurement with a nephelometer. 2001. equal to the amount of heat added to the planet by man-made greenhouse gases. As he sat in the Bavarian castle. about a watt of solar energy per square meter from reaching Earth’s surface. You might think of it as the amount of a light beam that a particle blocks out per gram of material. he recalls. Charlson says. satellite and weather balloon records.htm) The upshot of the addition of Jacobson's findings is that the amount of warming we should currently be observing increases. simultaneously you filter the air. at the coffee break. The aerosol umbrellas over the Northern Hemisphere. The ocean isn't holding back that much Hansen says he believes about 60 percent of the ultimate warming for today's atmospheric changes should already have been realized. So after the boring talk was over. on average. right there. and do a chemical analysis of the material. are keeping. was sitting on a desk waiting for me. is only around 0.’ Charlson says. When I got there on Monday.com/archive/previous_issues/vol6/v6n11/feature1. That’s what allows you to say that given X amount of sulfate in the air.3 to 3. on average. Using the estimates of NASA climatologist James Hansen. The only way a person can explain the profound difference between observations and projections is to assume that the sulfate cooling effect is massive. Then you take the ratio of the scattering to the concentration of material. Charlson explains. The cooling effect of aerosols is balancing 90% of the warming expected from greenhouse gas emissions. there will be Y amount of scattering. Charlson realized that he knew how to make the optical calculations. http://www. the total rise in temperature of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) should be around 2. and if the oceans weren't holding back warming. It was much bigger than I thought. . He took out a pencil and did some rough math on a scrap of paper. Something has got to give here.07°C or about one-tenth of what should have happened. the best data and studies support our aerosols argument World Climate Report 1 (“Smoking Out UN-Science”.

Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 232 .

called aerosols. France. mainly the burning of fossil fuels. the C-130 will fly through the Kilauea volcano plume to study how its particles form and how much sunlight they reflect. By reflecting sunlight back to space. They also exist naturally as sulfur emissions from living organisms and volcanoes. the study is the first of the Aerosol Characterization Experiments. yet they keep showing up. Tasmania." says researcher Barry Huebert of the University of Hawaii at Honolulu. http://www. particularly sulfate aerosols. Geosciences. these tiny airborne particles. and their effect on radiation and climate. they will begin their research measurements with a flight toward the North Pole and back.findarticles.tech instrumentation will be NCAR's dual wavelength airborne lidar. In ACE-1. Environmental Research & Education at the NSF. how they form and grow. they can better assess the growing influence of human produced sulfate aerosols on climate.National Science Foundation. the Netherlands.the naturally occurring counterparts to these pollutants . "We're deploying state of. with stops in Alaska. Like carbon dioxide. 1996 . will focus on the marine atmosphere near European industrialized areas. By scattering incoming solar energy back to space. This change in the droplets' size distribution makes the cloud more reflective. They also serve as tiny sites on which water vapor can condense. Sweden. 1995 [Cheryl. the United Kingdom." Among the high. Called ACE-1. both the natural and pollutant aerosols directly affect the amount of radiation entering the earth's atmosphere. Geosciences.com/p/articles/mi_pfsf/is_199510/ai_1404523332/print] Scientists now suspect that increasing numbers of small particles of sulfur compounds and other pollutants floating in the atmosphere may affect so-called greenhouse warming in heavily industrialized regions. 1995. and the United States are participating in this major study of airborne particles. Experiments will be conducted from a fully equipped C-130 research airplane owned by NSF and operated by NCAR. UW Professor of Atmospheric Sciences.the-art instruments to the remote marine atmosphere for the first time to seek the source of these new particles. bouncing more solar radiation back to space and cooling the earth below. New Zealand. which will map the vertical extent of aerosol layers in the atmosphere. As scientists learn more about aerosols naturally occurring in the undisturbed atmosphere. allowing more small droplets to form within a cloud. ACE-2.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 233 2NC – Our Method Good The latest climate models and large scientific studies conclude that aerosols from fossil fuel consumption are balancing the warming effects of greenhouse gases Dyba. and take place from November 15 to December 14. Japan. While in Hawaii November 5 and 6. "Until recently all climate models have supposed that the only human activity driving climate change was the production of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. scheduled for 1997. and optical properties of aerosols. “NSF Scientists to Study Airborne Particles that May Be Cooling Earth”. To learn more about "background" aerosols -. Hawaii. Environmental Research & Education at the NSF. physical. In Alaska. a flight toward the South Pole will complete the study's nearly pole-to-pole measurements. Italy. Colorado are flying to the remote skies of Tasmania.researchers from eight universities and the National Science Foundation (NSF)-supported National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. can cool the earth beneath. Flight operations for detailed studies of "clean" ocean air in the Southern Hemisphere will be based at Hobart. Researchers aboard the C-130 will spend as many flight hours taking measurements during the two-week trip from the north Alaska coast to south of New Zealand as they will during the operations in Tasmania. "We now believe that other factors. October 1995. a series of international field programs to help scientists understand the chemical. After arrival at Hobart. "Existing theories suggest that it should be very hard to create new particles in the lower atmosphere. Hawaii Institute Director of Geophysics and Planetology. More than 100 scientists from 57 institutions representing Australia. This is the largest and most comprehensive experiment on natural background aerosols that we have ever done. scientists will study the natural marine system -distant from Northern Hemisphere sulfate aerosols produced by human activity. sulfate aerosols are produced by human activity." THE OBSERVED DATA ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE SUPPORTS THE CONCLUSION THAT AEROSOL COOLING IS TRUE Hartmann and Mouginis. Germany. and other sites along the way." explains scientist Tom Wigley of NCAR. may be as important as greenhouse gases.

gsfc. Hawaii Institute Director of Geophysics and Planetology. The predominant anthropogenic aerosol is probably sulfate originating from the burning of fossil fuels. . UW Professor of Atmospheric Sciences.gov/science_plan/Ch8. JZ] Modeling of tropospheric aerosols present a greater challenge.. NASA Earth Observation Systems Group EOS Science Plan #339. and the observed temperature change of the past century (Karl et al. 7/12/13.nasa.pdf. calculated aerosol coolings (Taylor and Penner 1994). and China). L. The regional distribution of these aerosols can be estimated from aerosol formation models (Langner and Rodhe 1991) and used to calculate an approximate anthropogenic sulfate climate forcing (Kiehl and Briegleb 1993).Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 234 [Dennis. There is a qualitative consistency among the regions of heavy aerosol amounts (Eastern United States. Europe..” http://eospso. because of the large number of heterogeneously distributed aerosols and the evidence that aerosols can alter cloud properties. 1995). P. “Volcanoes and Climate Effects of Aerosols.

Aerosols also scatter longwave radiation. Chung et al. although an increase has been observed in many thrid world regions. Consequently. with the largest effects predictably downwind of industrial centers like the east coast of North America. 2005). but the number of observing sites is limited and the analysis is laborious.realclimate. natural sources of sulfate aerosols were overwhelmed by the contribution from pollution. while increasing the number of droplet collisions required to form a raindrop large enough to fall out of the cloud. Soot production is greater if combustion occurs at low temperatures. Aerosols act as nuclei for the condensation of water vapor. aerosols modify the reflectance and lifetime of clouds (the ‘indirect’ radiative effects). “An Aerosol Tour de Forcing”. but the forcing magnitude is highly uncertain. Concentrations of some aerosols have decreased over the United States and Europe in recent decades as a result of environmental laws. Europe. Sulfate aerosols are reflective and act to cool the planet.. effectively increasing the cloud lifetime. Observations and models provide a weaker constraint upon the size of the indirect effects. NASA GISS Atmospheric Study Group. yet aerosols generally oppose greenhouse warming. scientists at NASA 6 (Ron Miller and Dorothy Koch. with a global. (which included Dorothy as a co-author) that was in the middle (Yu et al. but can absorb sunlight and cause warming. even the IPCC concedes that aerosols provide cooling to counteract warming Miller and Koch. But let’s start at the beginning…. Each published calculation of aerosol radiative forcing was a tour de force for integrating a wide variety of measurements ranging from absorption of radiation by individual particles to satellite estimates of aerosol amount. direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols cools the planet. Aerosols are important to climate partly because their concentration is increased by the same industrial processes that increase the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. resulting in the distribution of water over a larger number of cloud droplets compared to condensation in clean air. Aerosols are solid particles or liquid droplets that are temporarily suspended within the atmosphere.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 235 2NC – Links – Fossil Fuels Fossil fuel consumption produces aerosols that counteract greenhouse gases. The disparate results emphasize the complexity and difficulty of the calculation. The number of soot particles in the atmosphere was increased by industry and the burning of forests to clear land for agriculture. Aerosols eventually fall out of the atmosphere or are washed out by rainfall. Their confidence is increased if different techniques lead to the same conclusion.php/archives/2006/02/an-aerosol-tourde-forcing/) Scientists have confidence in a result to the extent that it can be derived by different investigators. so the studies discussed here confine themselves to calculating only the direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols.35 and -1. they have been regulated more aggressively than greenhouse gases. aerosol levels are anticipated to drop faster than greenhouse gases in response to future emission reductions. where they are key to understanding twentieth century climate change.org/index. which will leave greenhouse warming unopposed and unmoderated. This time is too short for them to be mixed uniformly throughout the globe (unlike CO2). In contrast. aerosol effects upon climate are larger in particular regions. so there are large regional variations in aerosol radiative forcing. According to the latest (2001) IPCC report. as with cooking fires or inefficient power generation. 2005). Naturally occurring examples are sea spray or sulfate droplets. Concurrence provides evidence that the conclusion does not depend upon assumptions that occasionally are insufficiently supported.. two articles published last December on the same day arrive at very different and incompatible estimates of the effect of human-made aerosols on the radiative budget of the planet (Bellouin et al. annual average between -0. The uncertainty of the total indirect effect is even larger. During the twentieth century. February 8. only the combined effect of all aerosols upon radiation impinging upon the satellite . In the twenty-first century.35 W/m2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). The smaller particles having the largest radiative effect typically reside in the atmosphere for only a few days to a few weeks. http://www. Soot particles are also reflective. and is neglected by all three of the studies discussed here.. along with soil particles (dust) eroded by the wind. 2005. In addition to their ability to scatter radiation and change the net energy gain at the top of the atmosphere (the ‘direct’ effect). satellite instruments have detected aerosols routinely with nearly global coverage. 2006. This increases the cloud’s ability to reflect sunlight. Aerosol concentrations have been measured downwind of sources over the past few decades. Because aerosols cause respiratory and other health problems and acid rain. However. They follow an earlier estimate published last year. where economic development is a priority. and East Asia. in particular from the burning of fossil fuels. although this is significant only for larger aerosols like soil dust. Since the late 1970′s.

the calculations by Chung et al. Many of these processes are included in aerosol models. Regions with a preponderance of sulfates. the ability of each particle to scatter radiation would be known as a function of its age and aggregation with other species (in the way that dust can be coated with sulfates when passing over industrial areas.33 W/m2. Yet on the same day. (2005) had estimated a more conciliatory value of 0.1 W/m2. along with a range of uncertainty. (2005) in Nature arrive at TOA forcing of -0. estimate much greater atmospheric absorption.5 ± 0. use an even broader array of measurements and models. Chung et al. compared to biogenic sources. this estimate is noteworthy for its comparatively small uncertainty. Yu et al. and adjust this value using local measurements by the AERONET array of sun photometers. The measured absorption is a single value that reflects the combined effect of both anthropogenic and natural aerosols. While MODIS is able to make this distinction between small and large particles over ocean.) The main difference is that Chung et al. and here Bellouin et al. attributed the total AOT to human influence in regions where the fine fraction AOT exceeds 85% of the total. over the Mediterranean or East Asia. a number chosen to reduce the uncertainty associated with any single model. Chung et al. for example). Similarly. attempt an empirical end-run around this uncertainty by dividing the planet into six regions where aerosol concentration is high. this accounts for some of the difference. this means distinguishing droplets created by industrial sources.Gonzaga Debate Institute 236 Warming Core was originally measured. except within extremely arid regions. Each of these studies provides an estimate of the most likely value. which measures attenuation of a light beam passing through an aerosol layer. Chung et al.4 ± 0. predict that aerosols reduce the net radiation incident upon the surface by 1. Chung et al. Bellouin et al. The total aerosol mass was inferred from MODIS estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT).2 W/m2 compared to 3. although here we speculate upon the effect of some of the differing assumptions. The wide range of estimates give some indication the difficulty of the problem. For sulfate aerosols. While near the center of the range published by the IPCC. Why do similar methods result in forcing estimates whose uncertainty ranges don’t overlap? This is difficult to know. estimating based upon similarly extensive calculations that the forcing by aerosols at TOA is -0. Recent instruments.1 W/m2 for Chung et al. for example. although the six representative sites were chosen where contribution by the former dominates. regions where larger particles make the predominant contribution to AOT were excluded from the anthropogenic total. are similar. (2005). and they use this model along with AERONET measurements to specify the radiative properties of the combined aerosol population within each column. Consequently. (2005) published an article in the JGR.) narrows . Bellouin et al. like the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measure radiation at multiple wavelengths. Chung et al. MODIS provides not only the total AOT but also the fractional contribution corresponding to smaller particles whose diameter is less than one micron (a thousandth of a millimeter). specify greater particle absorption compared to all but one of the six regional values used by Bellouin et al. This allows particle size to be distinguished with greater confidence. A few months earlier. Yu et al. the distinction is more uncertain over land. but some of the key parameters are uncertain given limited observations. This is based upon contrasting surface measurements at Washington DC and the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean. The new generation of satellite instruments is at the heart of recent attempts to reduce the large uncertainty of direct radiative forcing by aerosols. such as the eastern coast of North America and downwind. one would know the three-dimensional distribution of each aerosol species and its evolution throughout the year. Because the TOA forcing becomes less negative as absorption increases. were assigned greater reflectance and lesser absorption than particles over the Indian Ocean where dark soot particles are more common. (These instruments point toward the sun and record incident radiation at various wavelengths.35 ± 0.8 ± 0. assign the total AOT using MODIS. the discrepancy has implications for the supply of moisture to the atmosphere. estimate a much larger reduction in global rainfall by aerosols. resorted to the anthropogenic fraction computed by five aerosol models.9 ± 0. based upon a single putatively representative site. and using a ‘typical’ value of particle absorption based on surface measurements.25 W/m2. these properties vary within each region as opposed to the regionally averaged values used by Bellouin et al.. One would also be able to distinguish natural and human fractions of each species. made use of the fact that anthropogenic aerosols such as sulfate and soot are generally smaller than natural aerosols such as soil dust and sea salt. To estimate the anthropogenic fraction of aerosols. Despite their different result compared to Bellouin et al. and Yu et al. In addition. That is. Conversely. What are the sources of disagreement and uncertainty? Ideally. which can be used with some assumptions to infer the aerosol species. Because radiation into the surface is mainly balanced by evaporation. Forcing estimates differ not only at TOA but also at the surface: Bellouin et al. Bellouin et al.’s replacement of their model estimate of anthropogenic particle fraction over the ocean with the MODIS estimate (following Bellouin et al. Chung et al. The original instruments couldn’t distinguish between dust and sulfate aerosols where both were present. Bellouin et al. compute the anthropogenic fraction over both land and ocean using a single aerosol model.

along with myriad aspects of the aerosol life cycle that are poorly measured and impossible to model precisely. The unambiguous distinction between individual aerosol species within models will eventually become possible by direct observation as a result of more discerning instruments. TOA forcing depends strongly upon the relative position of the cloud and aerosol layer. naturally occurring forest fires contribute as well. . As consensus emerges regarding the global aerosol forcing. When cloudy regions are included. calculate a much larger reduction of surface radiation than Bellouin et al. Given the difficulty of measuring the aerosol mass over the entire planet. accounting for some of the global disagreement with Bellouin et al. and is comparatively uncertain. future reductions in aerosol emissions will be a positive forcing. While parametric uncertainty is straightforward to estimate. Regardless of the absolute amount of the forcing. Nonetheless. the aerosol indirect effect may be even more resistant to consensus. Aerosol forcing remains a crucial problem because its offset of greenhouse warming is expected to decrease with time as governments address the health problems associated with aerosols. Because of their comparatively short lifetimes. assume that all soot particles over the ocean are anthropogenic. calculate positive aerosol forcing within cloudy regions. Because of the added complexity of cloud physics. Unlike AOT. An absorbing soot layer above a bright cloud absorbs more radiation than if the layer were beneath the cloud. The number of calculations needed to sample the uncertainty can increase exponentially with the number of uncertain parameters. While aerosol absorption and reflection have opposing effects at TOA. the vertical distribution of aerosols is not measured routinely. rather than highlighting it in the abstract or conclusions. The disagreement among forcing estimates raises the more general point of whether any study really captures the full range of uncertainty. as opposed to taking the uncertainty range of any single study. the concentration of aerosols decreases much faster than that of CO2 given a reduction in fossil fuel use. amplifying the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases. the most reliable estimate of forcing uncertainty may be derived by combining the central forcing estimate from a number of studies. Yu et al.. who assume that aerosol forcing in these regions is zero. Chung et al. contributing to negative forcing at the surface. models will remain valuable for their ability to distinguish natural and anthropogenic sources of the same aerosol species. The latter is an example of a structural uncertainty that is typically difficult to characterize. Treatment of aerosol forcing over cloudy regions also contributes to the difference. Progress will come by more systematic comparisons among studies to identify key uncertainties. Chung et al. While Bellouin et al. Thus.Gonzaga Debate Institute 237 Warming Core the difference. attention will turn to regional values that cause local changes to climate and heat redistribution by the atmosphere. they both reduce sunlight beneath the aerosol layer. seem to acknowledge the large outstanding uncertainty by relegating their estimate of anthropogenic aerosol forcing to a table. At TOA. the dearth of observations makes it difficult to estimate the effect of assuming a bulk absorption that represents an ‘average’ aerosol rather than computing absorption by each species separately. Both studies estimate nearly identical forcing at the surface in the absence of clouds. forcing at the surface is less sensitive to the relative strength of absorption versus reflection.

com/archive/previous_issues/vol6/v6n11/feature1. Superimposed upon this broad range of possible effects is a "Level of Scientific Understanding" rated as "very low. either. the indirect cooling effect ranges from zero to two Watts per square meter. If true. the uncertainty range within each category was added. 1 (World Climate Report “Smoking Out UN-Science”. if it actually occurred. World Climate Report.N. the global effect of sulfate cooling has never been measured. Again. After all. reproduced from the "Policymakers Summary" of the new report of the U.worldclimatereport. Stanford engineer Mark Jacobson asserts that common black soot in the atmosphere the stuff that goes up the smokestack along with other products of combustion." We have modified the IPCC's original illustration to include the new calculation for the direct effect of soot�of the same magnitude. scientific views on anthropogenic climate activities. neither has the global effect of soot aerosols. "A vertical line without a rectangular bar denotes a forcing for which no best estimate can be given owing to large uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). sulfate aerosol and soot go hand in hand.'s original storyline garnered any credibility. the cooling of sulfate aerosols.N. that capacity has never been measured. the result is a push�remove the sulfates and the aerosols together. Like the "direct" effect of sulfates. including the 11° story. this is how that story ends." In that particular storyline. As a result. Jacobson's calculation has a number of neat effects.'s storyline dead. It represents the state of the science that underlies all the projections. Well. According to the IPCC. In all of the hype surrounding the 11° storyline.3 to 3. There's another sulfate cooling that is even more hypothetical. as predicted in a future projection they called a "storyline." "Large" is an understatement here. At least that's what we take from Figure 1." Note that there is no bar for the "Aerosol Indirect Effect. Jacobson writes. Using the estimates of NASA climatologist James Hansen." The upshot of the addition of Jacobson's findings is that the amount of warming we should currently be observing increases. In the article. and the net climate effect is near zero.5°C for surface temperature. itself has very little confidence that the storyline. The net direct warming that soot produces is greater than that from any other emission with the exception of carbon dioxide. So any attempt to remove one (often done with electrostatic precipitators) will remove the other. Parenthetically. it probably also kills any other big warming in this century that would be driven by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. if there were no indirect sulfate cooling. But if clouds are enhanced by sulfate aerosol. (The IPCC's current best estimate of the magnitude is shown by the rectangular bars and the range of uncertainty is shown by the vertical lines. http://www. What Figure 1 shows is the relative warming and cooling the IPCC hypothesizes for various human activities and emissions. It also supposes those particles were cooling the earth twice as much as it has warmed in the last 100 years. That translates roughly from zero to 1. called the "indirect" effect. abruptly comes to an end as antipollution measures curtail their emission. it is worth noting that the IPCC even lists the understanding of the direct sulfate effect as "low. it's also likely that they are evaporated by the warming effect of black soot.N.) Those members also directed the IPCC to place the effects of the various emissions along a continuum of "scientific understanding. That warming is almost exactly equal to the putative cooling directly caused by sulfate aerosol. At the insistence of some members. and if the oceans weren't holding back warming. Feb 19." That is the hypothesized cloud-brightening from sulfate aerosols. 20. That was the document approved in Shanghai as the Clinton Administration clock ran down on Jan. sulfates serve as tiny condensation points for water. After all. If the size of the prevented warming then equals the size of the prevented cooling. Again. end of 11° story. End of 11° story. Their absence then rapidly jacks up the warming. 2001. reports failed to mention that the U. which some theorize has countered the warming we should have been seeing.3°C by . The reason there is no bar? According to the IPCC. to the direct cooling effect of sulfates. the total rise in temperature of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) should be around 2. Nature magazine just published a seemingly obscure article that has shot the U. reflecting away more solar radiation. the result is no net change in temperature as sulfates drop out. For good measure." Particles of both are about the same size. For that matter. would generated that much warming. but opposite in sign. Here. You might ask how the U. And it shows how little confidence surrounds this hype.htm) World Climate Report was up in arms about the United Nations' preposterous pronouncement of a possible 11°F warming this century. such as sulfate aerosols exerts a whopping warming effect.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 238 2NC – Links – Pollution Reduction of air pollution will cause a rapid and catastrophic global warming World Climate Report. Their combination is colloquially known as "smoke.N. the story goes. clouds have more fine droplets and become whiter.

N. Yet according to surface. And despite a new Science paper that shows major increases in south Asian aerosol emissions�corroborating the notion that sulfates are rising�no one can find evidence for cloud brightening in the satellite data! Summing up: Jacobson finds that soot causes more warming and cancels the cooling from sulfates. Under the hypothesis that sulfate cooling balances greenhouse warming. otherwise there would be a profound and obvious acceleration in the rate of warming. The only way a person can explain the profound difference between observations and projections is to assume that the sulfate cooling effect is massive. By process of elimination. Rational folks would think that something so large as this putative cloud enhancement would be pretty darned obvious by now. The ocean isn't holding back that much�Hansen says he believes about 60 percent of the ultimate warming for today's atmospheric changes should already have been realized. Something has got to give here. satellite and weather balloon records. unless cooling from the sulfate-induced brightening of clouds is massive. That's the bottom line. Attempts to reduce air pollution will cause global warming by eliminating the cooling effects of sulfate aerosols Health and Energy 7 (“Sulfur Dioxide cuts may allow Increased Global Warming”. the observed warming averaged over the troposphere since the three histories became concurrently available (since January 1979). And yet no one can find those brightened clouds. The fact that it is not most likely means it is not very big. the amount of sulfates has to have increased dramatically in this period.com/sulfur_dioxide. February 20. http://healthandenergy. the planet should have warmed tremendously.Gonzaga Debate Institute 239 Warming Core now. That leaves one other excuse for the dearth of warming.07°C�or about one-tenth of what should have happened. is only around 0. Even after making liberal assumptions about oceanic thermal inertia. we have smoked out the truth behind the U. with the majority in recent decades.htm) . Think about it: We have had weather satellites circling the globe for decades.'s melodramatic "storyline" entertaining an 11°F warming in this century. and it is the one that scares the pants off of just about every climate scientist who has banged the gong of disastrous global warming: We may simply have overestimated the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

the greenhouse-warming problem by enhancing the warming in and near the regions where the sulfur dioxide emissions he said. in a sense. according to a university professor. "It is ironic. a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois. Global warming and acid rain are two environmental problems the world will be forced to reckon with in the 21st century. resulting in regional warming. Even though the burning of coal and oil produces both carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. "This acts as a negative radiative forcing which partially compensates for the positive radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases". we found that decreasing the sulfur dioxide emissions led to significant regional warming in North America. "In recent studies. acidic compounds that fall to the Earth in the form of acid rain. technologies exist that allow for both low-sulfur fuels and "scrubbers" placed in smoke stacks that clean emissions of sulfur dioxide. that in working to solve one environmental problem you exacerbate another problem". In these scenarios. Sulfur dioxide emissions from the burning of coal and oil react with water and oxygen in the air to form sulfate aerosols — acidic compounds that fall to the Earth in the form of acid rain. . said Michael Schlesinger. "Thus it appears that mitigation of the acid-rain problem by future reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions exacerbates are reduced". wreaking havoc on the world’s forests and streams.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 240 Sulfur dioxide emissions from the burning of coal and oil react with water and oxygen in the air to form sulfate aerosols. Unfortunately. Urbana-Champaign. said Schlesinger. Therefore. Europe and Asia". sulfur dioxide emissions have been de-coupled from carbon dioxide emissions. Take away the sulfur dioxide — a gas that doesn’t stray too far from its source of emission — and all of a sudden something that used to mitigate the effects of carbon dioxide is lost. efforts to mitigate acid rain may actually increase regional warming. said Schlesinger. Schlesinger and his colleagues based their study on four scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases that are being produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the panel’s Third Assessment Report scheduled for completion in 2001. sulfur dioxide emissions either leveled off early in the next century or decreased while carbon dioxide emissions continued to rise. in each of the scenarios that Schlesinger and his colleagues examined. Sulfate aerosols also reflect sunlight back into space.

html) When fossil fuels are burned in the production of electricity.eia. This section provides a brief summary of the gaseous emissions from U. petroleum. a significant fraction of the aerosol burden can come from advection or sedimentation from the stratosphere. Electric Power In dustry Overview no date given (Robert.doe. L. or a combination. EOS Science Plan #339. either directly.pdf) Aerosols in the troposphere are also important for global climate. and carbon dioxide (CO2).gov/cneaf/electricity/page/prim2/chapter6. NASA Earth Observation Systems Group. because coal generally contains more sulfur than other fossil fuels. they are released into the atmosphere.nasa. In the upper troposphere. http://eospso. it creates more SO2 when burned. The indirect effect of human-produced aerosols on the properties of clouds may be of the same order. The aerosols contributed by humans have been increasing. making tropospheric aerosols one of the major uncertainties in understanding climate change. Hartmann and P. electric utilities and the methods employed to reduce or eliminate their release into the atmosphere. nitrogen oxides (NOx). “Environmental Aspects”. . Among the gases emitted during the burning of fossil fuels are sulfur dioxide (SO2). First. and aerosols formed by chemical transformation from gaseous compounds to molecules that exist in solid or liquid form. If these gases and particulates are not captured by some pollution control equipment. Second.S. Coal-fired power plants are uniquely powerful sources of sulfate aerosol emissions Schnapp Department of Energy. http://www. Although the lifetime of aerosols in the troposphere is only a few weeks. 96 (D. including sea salt and dust carried from the surface into the atmosphere by wind. particularly those associated with SO2 released during the combustion of coal.gsfc. and biomass.gov/science_plan/Ch8. directly associated with industrial activity. . Mouginis. the sources are strong enough to maintain a significant aerosol burden. or by becoming incorporated into small cloud droplets or ice crystals.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 241 2NC – Links – Coal Tropospheric sulfate aerosols from coal combustion cancel out anthropogenic global warming Hartmann and Mouginis.5 W m-2. there are more emissions from coal-fired plants because more coal-fired capacity is used compared with other fossil-fueled capacity. a variety of gases and particulates are formed. It is estimated that the direct effect of sulfate aerosols produced by humans on Earth’s energy balance is currently about 0. It is estimated that the anthropogenic source of sulfuric acid aerosols in the troposphere is currently greater than the natural source. compared to the forcing associated with the change in greenhouse gases during the industrial age of about 2 W m-2. “Volcanoes and Climate Effects of Aerosols”. A wide variety of aerosol types exist. Coal-fired generating units produce more SO2 and NOx than other fossil-fuel units for two reasons. The sources of aerosols can be natural. The primary effect of these aerosols is to cool Earth by reflecting solar radiation.

it is presently more likely that fossil fuel burning causes cooling of the atmosphere rather than heating. an important greenhouse gas. each SO2molecule is 50– 1100 times more effective in cooling the atmosphere (through the effect of aerosol particles on cloud albedo) than a CO2 molecule is in heating it. Because of that. that the cooling effect from coal and oil burning may presently range from 0.3 of the heating effect." said Jacobson. climate models to date have mischaracterized the effects of soot in the atmosphere. snow and ice. Future increases in coal and oil burning. 2010. dinosaurs.com/perlserv/?request=getabstract&doi=10. Biomass burning associated with deforestation. he said. He also found that soot emissions kill more than . 578–588. It is also shown that although coal and oil emit 120 times as many CO2 molecules as SO2 molecules.sciencedaily. For a doubling in the C02 concentration due to fossil fuel burning. Note that this ratio accounts for the large difference in the aerosol (3–10 days) and CO2 (7–100 years) lifetimes. bird flu. USRA resident scientist at NASA/ Goddard Space Flight Center. according to a new study by Stanford researcher Mark Z.J Kaufman “Fossil Fuel and Biomass Burning Effect on Climate—Heating or Cooling?” Journal of Climate.com/releases/2010/07/100728092617. It is concluded. What he found was that the combination of both types of soot is the second-leading cause of global warming after carbon dioxide.allenpress. coal. Jacobson used an intricate computer model of global climate. July 30. Emitted trace gases heat the atmosphere through their greenhouse effect. 4. He analyzed the impacts of soot from fossil fuels -. He examined the effects of soot -. This paper reviews the characteristics of the cooling effect and applies Twomey's theory to cheek whether the radiative balance favors heating or cooling for the cases of fossil fuel and biomass burning. he said.from two types of sources.0. That ranks the effects of soot ahead of methane. extrasolar planets. while particulates formed from emitted SO2 cause cooling by increasing cloud albedos through alteration of droplet size distributions. Within this large uncertainty. Black aerosols outweigh reflective particles Science Daily. "Controlling soot may be the only method of significantly slowing Arctic warming within the next two decades. (Y. Say Researchers. His analysis shows that soot is second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming. gasoline.1 to 0. He also focused in detail on the effects of soot on heating clouds. Jacobson. autism. may saturate the cooling effect. wood and dung. director of Stanford's Atmosphere/Energy Program. http://www. jet fuel -and from solid biofuels. http://ams.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 242 AFF – 2AC – SO2 Screw Warming outpaces cooling Y.black and brown particles that absorb solar radiation -. Emission from burning of fossil fuels and biomass (associated with deforestation) generates a radiative forcing on the atmosphere and a possible climate chaw. But. is more likely to cause heating of the atmosphere than cooling since its aerosol cooling effect is only half that from fossil fuel burning and its heating effect is twice as large.the latest 10 (Best Hope for Saving Arctic Sea Ice Is Cutting Soot Emissions. the cooling effect is expected to be 0. et al. manure. and the resultant increase in concentration of cloud condensation nuclei.CO%3B2&ct=1) . on the other hand.1175%2F15200442(1991)004%3C0578%3AFFABBE%3E2. Breaking science news and articles on global warming. stem cells.htm) The quickest." To reach his conclusions.diesel. such as wood. soot's contribution to global warming has been ignored in national and international global warming policy legislation. and other solid biomass used for home heating and cooking in many locations.J Kaufman. 1991. dung. the better. allowing the heating effect to dominate. evolution -. "We have to start taking its effects into account in planning our mitigation efforts and the sooner we start making changes. best way to slow the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is to reduce soot emissions from the burning of fossil fuel. air pollution and weather that he developed over the last 20 years that included atmospheric processes not incorporated in previous models.4 to 8 times the heating effect. nanotechnology.

creating a considerable time lag between when emissions are cut and when the results become apparent. "But without treating these processes. just like a black shirt on a sunny day. The most immediate. "It's a double-whammy over the ice surface in terms of heating the air. would have major health benefits. snow and atmospheric heating. Black carbon is highly efficient at absorbing solar radiation in the atmosphere. This is different from greenhouse gases." Jacobson said. sea ice.co. Chief Scientist.” BBC http://www. that leads to the conclusion that a reduction in soot output would start slowing the pace of global warming almost immediately. which he said are critical for understanding the full effect of black carbon on heating the atmosphere. no model can give the correct answer with respect to soot's effects. combined with the fact that it lingers in the atmosphere for only a few weeks before being washed out. which primarily trap heat that rises from the Earth's surface.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans. Chemistry & Climate (C4). Mark Jacobson found that eliminating soot produced by the burning of fossil fuel and solid biofuel could reduce warming above parts of the Arctic Circle in the next 15 years by up to 1. in contrast.5 million people prematurely worldwide each year. First model of its type Jacobson's climate model is the first global model to use mathematical equations to describe the physical and chemical interactions of soot particles in cloud droplets in the atmosphere." Jacobson said. effective and low-cost way to reduce soot emissions is to put particle traps on vehicles. Particle traps filter out soot particles from exhaust fumes.7 degrees Celsius. it is really hard to regenerate because there is not an efficient mechanism to cool the ocean down in the short term. renewable electric power. Director. "Once the sea ice is gone.7 degrees Celsius.shtml . "The key to modeling the climate effects of soot is to account for all of its effects on clouds. and also hit it as light reflects off the ice and heads back towards space. cardiovascular disease and asthma. Black carbon can also absorb light reflecting from the surface. Because of the complexity of the processes. Jacobson found that eliminating soot produced by the burning of fossil fuel and solid biofuel could reduce warming above parts of the Arctic Circle in the next 15 years by up to 1. For perspective. Reducing soot could have immediate impact It is the magnitude of soot's contribution. Center for Clouds. typically persist in the atmosphere for decades -. When black carbon is present in the air over snow or ice. who measures and models the climate effects of soot. "There is a big concern that if the Arctic melts. snow. sunlight can hit the black carbon on its way towards Earth. heat absorbing. This allowed him to include details such as light bouncing around inside clouds and within cloud drops. buses." he said. it will be a tipping point for the Earth's climate because the reflective sea ice will be replaced by a much darker. biofuel-derived soot caused about eight times the number of deaths as fossil fuel soot. The strong global heating due to soot that Jacobson found is supported by recent findings of Veerabhadran Ramanathan. Jacobson's study will be published in Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres). Providing electricity to rural developing areas. Distinguished Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences. Jacobson argues that leaving out this scale of detail in other models has led many scientists and policy makers to undervalue the role of black carbon as a warming agent. and atmospheric heating by soot. he said it is not a surprise that previous models have not correctly treated the physical interactions required to simulate cloud. and afflicts millions more with respiratory illness. Soot could be further reduced by converting vehicles to run on clean. mostly in the developing world where biofuels are used for home heating and cooking ." said Jacobson. diesel trucks. Jacobson found that although fossil fuel soot contributed more to global warming. Greenhouse gases. which is why there is a difference in impact. which helps make it such a potent warming agent. Soot from fossil fuels contains more black carbon than soot produced by burning biofuels. a professor of climate and atmospheric science at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography.some up to a century or more -.5 degrees Celsius during the last century and is expected to warm significantly more in the future if nothing is done. Black carbon converts sunlight to heat and radiates it back to the air around it. he said. net warming in the Arctic has been at least 2. who was not involved in the study. “Global Dimming.Gonzaga Debate Institute 243 Warming Core 1. Black carbon also lands on the snow. thereby reducing usage of solid biofuels for home heating and cooking. and construction equipment. ocean below." said Ramanathan. : Professor of Applied Ocean Sciences. Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (Veerabhadran Ramanathan 1-15-2005." Global dimming causes millions of deaths – prevents rainfall Ramanathan. "Jacobson's study is the first time that a model has looked at the various ways black carbon can impact climate in a quantitative way. darkening the surface and enhancing melting. Black carbon has an especially potent warming effect over the Arctic.bbc.

PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: The Sahel is just one example of the monsoon system. now in the 20th Century. it was contributed on the one hand by the particles themselves shielding the ocean from the sunlight. they may have overwhelmed the warming. NARRATOR: For Ramanathan the implications are clear.which make acid rain. But now there's evidence that the real culprit was Global Dimming. DR LEON ROTSTAYN: So what our model is suggesting is that these droughts in the Sahel in the 1970s and the 1980s may have been caused by pollution from Europe and North America affecting the properties of the clouds and cooling the oceans of the northern hemisphere. With tragic consequences. For climate scientists like Leon Rotstayn the disappearance of the rains had long been a puzzle. Over India. This draws the rain belt that forms over the equator northwards. So this insidious soup. This place say workers here is the closest thing to hell on earth. NEWS REPORT . and extending into the Pacific. sulphates. Over China. considered by some to be the world's best.Gonzaga Debate Institute 244 Warming Core Basically the Global Dimming we saw in the North Indian Ocean. such as dust from soil erosion and “desertification”. Asia. ash and what have you. NARRATOR: Polluted clouds stopped the heat of the sun getting through. Let me take you to anther part of the world. We are not talking about few millions of people we are talking about few billions of people. producing a net cooling.com. SO2 isn’t sufficient to offset increasing CO2 NewScientist. NARRATOR: Rotstayn has found a direct link between Global Dimming and the Sahel drought.MICHAEL BUERK VOICE OVER: Dawn.newscientist. Those more reflective clouds could alter the pattern of the world's rainfall. If his model is correct. was having a double whammy on the Global Dimming. It was partly caused by a decade's long drought right across sub-Saharan Africa . sulphates and other aerosol molecules persist for only a few . NARRATOR: And when he looked at satellite images. He could see that pollution from Europe and North America blew right across the Atlantic. But this could be just of taste of what Global Dimming has in store. there is a problem. on the other hand making the clouds brighter. But every summer. NARRATOR: The 1984 Ethiopian famine shocked the world. nitrates. roughly half the world's population. PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: There is no choice here we have to cut down air pollution. Weekly science and technology news magazine. Over Western Europe. And to our surprise the result of this was that the tropical rain bands moved southwards tracking away from the more polluted northern hemisphere towards the southern hemisphere. and as the sun breaks through the piercing chill of night on the plain outside Korum it lights up a biblical famine. My main concern is this air pollution and the Global Dimming will also have a detrimental impact on this Asian monsoon. In some places. Over the British Isles. what came out of our exhaust pipes and power stations contributed to the deaths of a million people in Africa. but all the climate models suggested it should have little effect on the monsoon.. Ramanathan found the same thing was happening all over the world. and afflicted 50 million more.jsp) Right again. So the life giving rain belt never made it to the Sahel. For year after year the summer rains failed. At the time some scientists blamed overgrazing and poor land management. But then Rotstayn decided to find out what would happen if he took the Maldive findings into account..a region known as the Sahel. DR LEON ROTSTAYN (CSIRO Atmospheric Research): What we found in our model was that when we allowed the pollution from Europe and North America to affect the properties of the clouds in the northern hemisphere the clouds reflected more sunlight back to space and this cooled the oceans of the northern hemisphere. bringing rain to the Sahel. the heat of the sun warms the oceans north of the equator. The Sahel's lifeblood has always been a seasonal monsoon.com/hottopics/climate/climatefaq. (2004 “Climate Change. 2004. where the same monsoon brings rainfall to three point six billion people. One of the nice ironies of this story is that burning coal and oil produces sulphate particles . can also curb warming. These particles help to shield the more industrialised countries from the full impact of global warming.” www. if not eliminate it altogether. with diverse subject matter. extending into Africa. consisting of soot. Whereas the average C02 molecule in the atmosphere lasts for about a century. Other aerosols. But for twenty years in the 1970s and 80s the tropical rain belt consistently failed to shift northwards . such as central Europe and parts of China. But even if you find the idea of using one form of pollution to protect us from another.and the African monsoon failed. But it was when scientists started to investigate the effects of Global Dimming that they made the most disturbing discovery of all. That heat was needed to draw the tropical rains northwards. For most of the year it is completely dry.

. nose. The gases spread from an erupting vent primarily as acid aerosols (tiny acid droplets). The concentration of carbon dioxide gas in these areas can be lethal to people. aerosols do not accumulate in the atmosphere in the way that C02 does. known as tephra. is the main driving force of explosive eruptions . the cooling effect of the sulphates will remain constant.6°C cooling of the Earth's surface in the Northern Hemisphere. gases may escape continuously into the atmosphere from the soil. large explosive eruptions that inject a tremendous volume of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere can lead to lower surface temperatures and promote depletion of the Earth's ozone layer. If you carry on burning a given amount of fossil fuel. including hydrogen sulfide (H2S). fumaroles. 10. (2) whether the gas is injected into the troposphere or stratosphere. Locally. and vegetation. consider what happens if one cubic meter of 900°C rhyolite magma containing five percent by weight of dissolved water were suddenly brought from depth to the surface. A few historic eruptions have released sufficient fluorine-compounds to deform or kill animals that grazed on vegetation coated with volcanic ash.000 ppm will irritate moist skin within minutes. which may allow the magma to continue its upward journey. al. as an intrusion) or is rising toward the surface. if you turned down the power stations. followed by carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). the prevailing winds may blow the eruption cloud hundreds to thousands of kilometers from a volcano.5 ppm over 24 hours for maximum exposure.usgs. The increasing volume taken up by gas bubbles makes the magma less dense than the surrounding rock. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a colorless gas with a pungent odor that irritates skin and the tissues and mucous membranes of the eyes. The rapidly expanding gas bubbles of the foam can lead to explosive eruptions in which the melt is fragmented into pieces of volcanic rock. and helium (He). and hydrothermal systems. Sulfur dioxide chiefly affects upper respiratory tract and bronchi. primarily water. First. volcanic gases can rise tens of kilometers into Earth's atmosphere during large explosive eruptions.5-0.Gonzaga Debate Institute 245 Warming Core days. At high pressures deep beneath the earth's surface. the world would get much hotter within a few days. hydrogen (H2). The volcanic gases that pose the greatest potential hazard to people. compounds attached to tephra particles. creating a magma foam. Once airborne. the bubbles increase in number and size so that the gas volume may exceed the melt volume in the magma. If the molten rock is not fragmented by explosive activity. For example. hydrogen fluoride (HF). animals. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) The effects of SO2 on people and the environment vary widely depending on (1) the amount of gas a volcano emits into the atmosphere. carbon monoxide (CO). hydrogen chloride (HCL). The sulfur aerosols resulted in a 0. and throat. Such enormous expansion of volcanic gases. fluorine compounds tend to become concentrated on fine-grained ash particles. But as magma rises toward the surface where the pressure is lower. animals. Volcanoes solve aerosols United States Geological Survey June 11. carbon dioxide. which can be ingested by animals.gov/hazards/gas/index. and hydrogen fluoride. a lava flow will be generated.php) Magma contains dissolved gases that are released into the atmosphere during eruptions. For example. A concentration of 6-12 ppm can cause immediate irritation of the nose and throat. 1997)! The one meter cube at depth would increase to 8. volcanic gases are dissolved in molten rock. 20 ppm can cause eye irritation. The World Health Organization recommends a concentration of no greater than 0. Together with the tephra and entrained air. Volcanoes also release smaller amounts of others gases. and property are sulfur dioxide. gases held in the melt begin to form tiny bubbles. So sulphates are not a solution. Closer to the surface. the large explosive eruption of Mount Pinatubo on 15 June 1991 expelled 35 km3 of dacite magma and injected about 20 million metric tons of SO2 into the stratosphere. agriculture. while the warming effect of C02 will keep on increasing. Because carbon dioxide gas is heavier than air. This means two things. sulfur dioxide gas can lead to acid rain and air pollution downwind from a volcano. Secondly. and microscopic salt particles. Globally. Emission rates of SO2 from an active volcano range from <20 tonnes/day to >10 million tonnes/day according to the style of volcanic activity and type and volume of magma involved. Volcanic gases undergo a tremendous increase in volume when magma rises to the Earth's surface and erupts. Gases are also released from magma that either remains below ground (for example.75 m on each side at the surface. and (3) the regional or global wind and weather pattern that disperses the gas. The most abundant gas typically released into the atmosphere from volcanic systems is water vapor (H2O). In such cases. The one cubic meter of magma now would occupy a volume of 670 m3 as a mixture of water vapor and magma at atmospheric pressure (Sparks et. The sulfate aerosols also accelerated . volcanic vents. the gas may flow into in low-lying areas and collect in the soil. 2o1o Volcanic Gases and their effects ( 6/11/10 http://volcanoes.

destroyed ozone and led to some of the lowest ozone levels ever observed in the atmosphere. together with the increased stratospheric chlorine levels from human-made chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) pollution.Gonzaga Debate Institute 246 Warming Core chemical reactions that. .

Natural aerosols produce the opposite effect. Global emissions of sulfate aerosols. 2008) and the Sahel (Rotstayn and Lohmann 2002). Steven C. Nonetheless. Ito and247m Penner 2005. Changes in Hadley cell strength were smaller in the fixed-SST experiments because inter-hemispheric temperature gradients were not able to change as much. 2002. which affect the vertical propagation of wave activity. University of California Irvine. hence contributing to the observed widening of the tropics from the 1970s through 1990 or so. The northward shift is associated with a weakening of the DJF mean meridional mass circulation and strengthening of the JJA one. temperatures in the high-latitude stratosphere decreasing by (*1 K) and high-latitude sea-level pressure decreasing by*2 hPa. We found that changes were significant only with fixed SSTs. with anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Williams et al. 2001. In the slab-ocean experiments.Gonzaga Debate Institute Warming Core 247 AFF – 1AR – SO2 – Aerosols increase warming Anthropogenic aerosols offset cooling from natural aerosols Allen and Sherwood. aerosol absorption is likely underestimated (Sato et al. Department of Earth System Science. Seidel et al. The result is zonal winds near 60 N increasing by*1 m s -1 . 2006. Sydney. leading to expansion of the tropics. Stenchikov et al. for example in the Amazon (Cox et al.” Clim Dyn (2011) 36:1959–1978) Due to the predominance of northern-hemisphere sources for both aerosol types considered. We argue that this is because anthropogenic aerosols decrease temperature gradients between low and mid-latitudes. 2001. with changes of order 0. Yoshimori and Broccoli 2008).0 –4. Although some of these models include aerosol forcing. aerosols may have contributed non-negligibly to this widening and. Climate Change Research Centre. “The impact of natural versus anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model. Because the high-latitude AO impacts are strong only with fixed SSTs. with opposite impacts from natural aerosols. In fact such widening has been observed (or inferred from stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming trends). although they remain quite uncertain and have probably fallen somewhat since 1990 (Novakov et al. Chung and Seinfeld 2005. Australia ’10 (Robert J. anthropogenic aerosols move the subtropical jets poleward by 0. Aerosol forcing is also associated with meridional shifts of the subtropical jets. as discussed above. 2007. 2009). The observed widening of 2. they do not appear to be robust to variations in ocean . Wang 2004. Koch et al.8 over 25 years.2 –0. This behavior is consistent with other aerosol studies focusing on the direct effects of BC aerosols (Roberts and Jones 2004. Smith et al. 2007). Sherwood.5 ) and does not appear to have stopped in the last decade or two.3 each. Shindell et al. with opposite changes for the southward shift. and the direct (Yoshimori and Broccoli 2008) and indirect (Rotstayn et al. Global emissions of black carbon have generally increased over the latter half of the twentieth century. Similar impacts occur in the simulation of Chung and Ramanathan (2003) for absorbing aerosols over India only. 1991. These results support previous findings that aerosols affect the variability of precipitation at low latitudes. . however. Song and Robinson 2004) where it manifests itself at the surface as sealevel pressure and temperature anomalies. 2008. Arctic oscillation-like changes result from altered tropospheric temperature gradients. impacts from past changes in anthropogenic aerosol composition could exceed those simulated here for the current composition. and is larger than predicted by models forced with GHGs and other forcings (Fu et al. Our results indicate that both of these trends should have contributed to poleward migration of the subtropical jet in the NH. The increased refraction causes acceleration of the stratospheric zonal winds. Regionally restricted forcings could excite a similar response even with interactive oceans. all are consistent with the radiatively forced changes to inter-hemispheric temperature gradients. and possibly in the SH.1–0. Anthropogenic aerosols consequently shifted the ITCZ northward while natural aerosols shifted it southward. 2004). Bond et al. 2003. however. Allen. decreasing the vertically propagating wave activity and increasing equatorward refraction.3 K in the lower troposphere. University of New South Wales. Johanson and Fu 2009). apparently because longer wavelength planetary waves— which are better able to penetrate into the stratosphere—are preferentially excited by the imposed net aerosol forcing in this case due to the land–ocean distribution in the northern hemisphere. anthropogenic aerosols warmed the troposphere (and natural aerosols cooled it) more in the northern hemisphere than in the southern. 2000. 2001) effects of sulfate aerosols. 2003. is much larger than reported here for either aerosol forcing (*0. which eventually propagates back down through the troposphere (Haynes et al. have been declining since the 1970s (van Aardenne et al.

compared to roughly 1ms-1 here. 2005).Gonzaga Debate Institute 248 Warming Core behavior. Chung and Ramanathan 2003)—as opposed to. which also have a strong decadal nature (Feldstein 2002). the more monotonically changing forcing by greenhouse gases— makes it an interesting possibility for explaining variations in the AO. Nonetheless. say. Similarly.4 hPa. the observed changes are significantly larger than those reported here even with fixed SST: from 1965 to 1995. Moreover. It would appear worthwhile to include more realistic aerosol forcing changes in climate models. we find wind and pressure changes that occur in roughly the same ratio as those of recent hard-toexplain trends. Thus. it is possible that decadal changes in the ratio of black carbon to sulfate could have exerted large effects. compared with a peak response here of 0. Given the cancellation found here between absorbing and scattering aerosol impacts. or at least to consider more seriously the possible impacts of unknown variations in the distribution and type of aerosols as an additional source of forcing uncertainty in model experiments. zonal wind increased by 7 m s-1 at 60 N and 50 hPa (Scaife et al.g. 2001b. mean sea-level pressure north of 45 N dropped by 2. and fixed-SST results are unlikely to represent very well the impacts of trends in aerosols where the ocean has plenty of time to respond to flux changes at the surface. but at much smaller magnitudes. e. . It is also possible that shifts of emissions from one region to another (Streets et al. the decadal variability in aerosol forcing (e.5 hPa relative to that from 45 N to the equator (Gillett 2005).. SE Asian haze Ramanathan et al. 2009) may have affected the AO by influencing rTand the wavelength of perturbations to the midlatitude flow.g..