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December 2, 2013
Avery Shenfeld (416) 594-7356 email@example.com Avery Shenfeld Benjamin Tal (416) 594-7356 (416) 956-3698 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Benjamin Tal Peter Buchanan (416) 956-3698 (416) 594-7354 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Peter Buchanan Warren Lovely (416) 594-7354 (416) 594-8041 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Warren Lovely Emanuella Enenajor (416) 594-8041 (416) 956-6527 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Meny Grauman Andrew Grantham (416) 956-6527 (416) 956-3219 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Krishen Rangasamy (416) 956-3219 firstname.lastname@example.org
Commodities: Warmer Growth to Heat Up Resources Next Year
by Peter Buchanan
Commodity prices have sagged by nearly 10% from August’s highs in the face of assorted developments, some broad-brush, others sector-speciﬁc. Fears of Fed tapering have tarnished sentiment stateside, while in Europe, growth and deﬂation fears have forced the ECB to act more decisively to protect the nascent recovery. Added declines are possible in coming months, given the uncertainties of a new US debt ceiling round and assorted other risks. Notwithstanding that, we continue to look for a faster global expansion to lend broad support to resource markets moving into 2014 (Tables 1 and 2). Global GDP growth of 4% should be the strongest since the recovery’s ﬁrst year. Softer resource prices have weighed on the TSX earnings recovery in recent quarters (Chart 1), contributing to the Canadian market’s underperformance vis-à-vis both the S&P 500 and some other key global benchmarks. Valuations for Toronto-listed stocks nonetheless remain affordable by a range of metrics, adding to potential upside from commodity market improvements. Auguring constructively for the medium-term outlook, shrinking budgetary deﬁcits pave the way for a reduction in growth-choking budgetary headwinds. The extension of deﬁcit-cutting deadlines in Europe represents a shift away from earlier, stultifying austerity. Assuming no material tightening from upcoming bi-party negotiations, the hit to GDP growth from ﬁscal restraint in the US will ease from 2013’s near-record level to well under 1% next year. That and the ongoing housing upturn will support growth and resource demand there.
TSX Earnings: A Two-Speed Recovery
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 $Bn, 4-qtr mov.avg.
“text text text”
Growth of Main Commodity-Using Economies (%)
2011A US China Eurozone
http://research. cibcwm.com/res/Eco/ EcoResearch.html
2012A 2.8 7.7 -0.6 3.2
2013E 1.6 7.7 -0.2 2.9
1.8 9.3 1.6 3.9
Source: IMF, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000 C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
09 :2 09 :4 10 :2 10 :4 11 :2 11 :4 12 :2 12 :4 13 :2
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
2014E 3.0 8.0 1.4 4.0
2015E 3.0 7.8 1.9 4.2
30 1100* 19.00 0. the emerging economies now comprise half to eighty percent or more of global industrial commodity demand.85 350 350 2014 (f) 95 4. The recently brokered nuclear deal with Iran has seen WTI trade below $93/bbl for the ﬁrst time since late May.00 255 412 2012 94 2. Early 2014 elections there could clear the path for the reforms needed to get growth back on track. Resource-Intensive Emerging Economies Still Driving Growth Industrial production. Urbanization and energy market liberalization. 2013 Chart 2 Depending on the market segment.95 410 300 2015 (f) 100 4. the ramping-up of a new US facility and full return of ﬁre-hit processing capacity could see some further tightening in coming months.10* 3.25 1.70 1200* 19.83 6.89 288 430 2013 (f) 98 3.75 1657* 31.09 10. Commodities Update—December 2. talk of a sea shift in growth leadership from the resource intensive emerging world to the more service-oriented economies seems a tad overdone. • While we expect domestic light-heavy spreads to remain above the usual $15-20/bbl in the short run. CIBC 2 .38 1.85 7.00* 3. While short-term factors like facility and pipeline constraints have weighed. another increasingly resource-intensive economy. IMF. • Canadian producers have also been bruised by a dramatic re-widening in WCS-WTI differentials to over $40/bbl at the recent peak (Chart 3).70 0. the commissioning of a new oil sands project has also stretched transportation capacity. key aims of the recent reform blueprint. An easing of pipeline pressure constraints and the use of more Table 2 Key Commodity Prices 27-Nov Oil (WTI) Natural Gas (Henry) Gold Silver C opper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lumber** Potash * end of period $/bbl $/Mn Btu $/troy oz $/troy oz $/lb $/lb $/lb $/lb $/'000 bd ft $/tonne 92 3. The data from China have by and large continued to surprise positively.92 7. aided by geopolitical uncertainties and tighter inventories at the key US delivery point.68 3. We continue to look for a recovery in export markets to help lever an above-consensus 8% rise in GDP next year. CIBC Crude oil prices have settled appreciably recently. India.09 0.21 0. For all the recent talk about the supercycle’s demise. y/y % chg 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 last decade 2014-15 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Share of Global Growth (%) Source: CPB.84 362 400 **1st Futures 2011 95 3. is often seen as rivalling China. Growth in some of those countries has clearly slowed.90 0.79 1245 19.80 0. Through September. after a raft of ﬁrst-half disappointments.30 0. Still. in terms of long-term potential. EM production growth was continuing to readily outpace the advanced economies. could help Canadian lumber and also potentially LNG exports. Our own country-level GDP estimates and the IMF’s latest ones imply only a slight reduction in the EM share of global growth in the next two years (Chart 2).99 1531* 27.00* 3. commodity markets are likely to continue to track those economies closely.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC.00* 3.01 1.90 7.20 1000* 17.05 425 300 Source: Bloomberg.79 6. The increase has also coincided with wider quality spreads globally due to the replacement of approximately 1 mn bbl/day of disrupted very light Libya and Nigerian production with heavier Saudi crudes. after a healthy run-up earlier in the year.97 0.62 0. looking ahead.80* 4.
WTI Mayan . • Despite shale-driven gains in the US and production growth elsewhere. Some estimates suggest Iranian capacity is now as little as 3 mn bbl/day. much of that oil is not Western Canada Select . Export restraints remain frozen for now at earlier levels. That could also hamper an early return to previous production levels (Chart 4. • WTI should average $95/bbl in 2014. Our estimates suggest it takes two to three years to see half of the full conservation effect of a rise in prices.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. we expect crude prices to remain ﬁrm by historical standards. That’s little changed from the year now ending.0 Iranian Oil Production (mn bbl/day) current capacity = 3 mn bbl/day -1 2. decline in oil consumption in the advanced economies. However. trends so far point to a subdued recovery. left). Notwithstanding the recent giveback. oil demand in the US is headed for its ﬁrst rise since the recession. The Middle East now uses almost as much oil as China.6 mn bbl/day 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Bloomberg. the deal itself is only an interim six-month accord. right).5 3.) • Western Canada Select is expected to average $7275/bbl. albeit more modest. Double-digit gains in auto sales also point to ongoing energy intensification. First. • The near-term implications for energy markets of the recent nuclear deal with Iran are likely to be quite modest. CIBC 3 Ja n0 Ja 8 n0 Ja 9 n1 Ja 0 n1 Ja 1 n1 Ja 2 n13 -2 . as a cyclical recovery in demand helps to offset new supply with a modest move up to $100 in 2015.Oct 2. China is expected Chart 4 Global Oil Demand to Accelerate (L).0 Actual Production . demand cover in the OECD is close to the half-decade average. • Global crude demand appears on track for a rise of just over 1% in 2013. as vehicle buyers stress mileage efﬁciency. • With a 1% year-to-date advance.0 3. crude inventory levels in the industrial countries are not particularly heavy.5% in 2014 and 2015. Demand projections are also being raised modestly in Europe. At just under 59 days. we expect the pace to accelerate to an average 1. due to underinvestment and unusually high ﬁeld decline rates. Chart 3 Commodities Update—December 2. and year-ago levels. as auto sales show signs of a turnaround. CIBC efﬁcient unit trains and new loading facilities should also help to reduce transportation bottlenecks.Brent Source: Bloomberg. miles driven appear to have bottomed early in 2012. as global growth accelerates and the lagged effect of earlier price hikes eases (Chart 4. reﬂecting different supply and economic assumptions. implying further easing in spreads from early November’s highs as disruption eases and additional transport capacity becomes available. • Geographically. Continuing the recent pattern. Rising desalination and power generation needs are expected to see the region’s share of total consumption rise further.5 4. emerging market demand growth should offset a further. (Our WTI and natural gas price projections vary somewhat from our Commodity Strategist.6 to account for about 40% of incremental global oil demand in the next two years. Flash Flood of Iranian Crude Unlikely (R) 4 3 2 1 0 2. • While North America is expected to account for about 60% of global supply growth through decade’s end (Chart 5).5 % chg C IBC Economics Fcst 4. Contributing to the recent demand turnaround. While that mimics the last two to three years. 2013 Heavy Oil Differentials Rewiden $/bbl 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 5/2/2008 5/2/2009 5/2/2010 5/2/2011 5/2/2012 11/2/2008 11/2/2009 11/2/2010 11/2/2011 11/2/2012 5/2/2013 11/2/2013 Correl = 0. Consumption growth there has been above trend in recent quarters.
meanwhile. • While geological variations contribute to inter-ﬁeld cost differences. helping to put a ﬂoor under prices. Despite some recent softening. • The electric power industry has been a key demand driver in the last decade. sizeable shale-based production from the likes of Russia and Australia is the better part of a decade off.8 1.50 or more for a new facility achieving 60% efﬁciency based on 2015 forward coal prices. 2013 Energy Superpower: North America 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 2012 2020 USA Net Contribution of Other Countries Higher Natural Gas Prices May be Needed to Rekindle Supply Growth 2. Inventories have fallen appreciably in the last year. coal prices in eastern North America are now below mine operator costs. we continue to see upside for North American spot prices in the next year or two. suggesting recent deep cuts in drilling activity are now having an impact on supply. limiting the potential for further decline.6 1. based on demand and supply considerations. • Consumption. while intensiﬁed violence adds to uncertainty over Iraq’s ultra-ambitious capacity addition plans. continues to expand. Chart 6 Chart 5 Commodities Update—December 2. • After a seven-year long rise to about 10% above the previous early 1971 peak. Notwithstanding that and in line with our average $4.4 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Source: IEA. to $4.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. • The coal/natural gas switching price varies. and remain below the half-decade average. we expect US demand to draw support in coming months from commercial and residential space heating. Breakeven costs currently run as high as $80/bbl for Bakken and Eagle Ford production. rising by 2% on the year in the first half of 2014. CIBC Source: US DOE. normalized for demand growth. CIBC cheap.7 1. Vis-à-vis competing fuels. 2012-2020 US Production. several recent studies point to average full-cycle break-evens in the $4-5/MMBtu range for US-based production. 4 Natural gas prices have been whipsawed recently by varying weather expectations as the heating season begins. • Vis-à-vis other long-term supply developments. US dry gas production growth has slowed notably in the last two years (Chart 6). due largely to demand from household and industrial consumers.20/MMBtu forecast for Henry Hub in 2014. above recent trading levels. reﬂecting more normal temperatures after last winter’s record warmth. higher for some oil sands and Permian plays.1 2. shale production is capital and labour intensive. from as little as $3 for an older facility achieving 45% thermal efficiency based on $55/ton central Appalachian coal prices. . Rapid decline rates mean new wells must be constantly redeveloped. with appreciable outlays at no fewer than seven stages of the development and production cycle.5 1.0 1. Lower gas liquids prices have cut into the economics of liquids-rich basins.9 Canada Global Oil Demand (Mn bbl/day) % of Global Production Growth. Compared to conventional development activity. Tn cu ft/mo flattening trend! 1. contributing to slower growth.
Although only 15% of Canadian production is from shale vs 39% south of the border. Half of the installed US coal generation base lacks scrubbers (emission controls of any kind. • Homebuilding levels in the US are still about 30% below what is likely to be needed longer term. based on demographic changes and historical household formation levels (Chart 8. left). IMF. CIBC • Tighter planned emission standards for existing coal plants should help tip the economics in favour of natural gas in coming years. • Domestic construction and the US each account for 35-40% of Canadian lumber sales.5 0. SPF lumber prices have rallied back strongly to near the multi-year highs seen earlier in the year. Bloomberg. India to Power LNG Demand (R) Technically recoverable resources.5 2. Chart 9 The Forestry Products group has been one of the TSX’s best performers from both a return and earnings perspective in the last year.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. 2013 Canada Has World Class Shale Gas Reserves (L).000 800 600 400 200 - Still Headroom for US Homebuilding (L).5 1. in many cases). Chart 7 Chart 8 Commodities Update—December 2. Fast consumption growth makes China and other Asian economies prime potential markets for exported Canadian LNG. Lean international stocks and delays commissioning new capacity saw prices rise by a further $25/tonne in October to multi-year highs. right) the downdraft in a number of other resources. China. EIA. Softwood lumber accounts for about half of the TSX sectors’ revenues. Canada’s own shale gas base is large relative to both consumption and international standards. raising the spectre of closure or costly retroﬁtting.0 1. while China is now the third largest market. representing nearly half of the remainder. vs about $350 in the current year. 12 2011-20 (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 11/2/02 11/2/04 11/2/06 11/2/08 11/2/10 15 Top C ountries Source: DOE. Rising Asian Demand Drive Pulp Rally (R) 2. 1. Aided by ﬁrm demand and tight inventories. Tn cu. CIBC 5 11/2/12 C A hi rg n en a ti A na lg er ia U an S ad M a ex ic o -2 hi na In di a C C . Projected growth rate/yr.0 0.0 Jan-90 warranted by longer-term demographics.200 1. OSB prices have also stabilized after declines earlier in 2013. • NBSK pulp prices have deﬁed (Chart 8. longer term (Chart 7). Tightness. ft. an average price of $410/000 bd ft in 2014. gains in both US and overseas demand and domestic ﬁbre constraints should help to underpin Global Metals Demand to Accelerate with Global Recovery 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 % chg % chg CIBC 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 Global GDP (R) Copper (R) Aluminum (L) Source: CRU. replacement demand Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 mn units/year 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 NBSK $/tonne Natural Gas Consumption. CIBC U S Eu ro pe Ja pa n Source: Census Bureau. Although the risk is that Canada’s housing market will soften over the coming year.
Slovakia. • Nickel was the weakest performing of the major base metals in 2012. Vietnam. • Though less impacted by rising inventories. • A rise in US auto demand to a 16. CRU Note: Data on right for China. 19 50 19 65 19 80 19 95 20 10 20 25 20 40 Urbanization Rate (%) Source: UN. Chart 11 After a Strong Start. pointing to positive spillovers from gains in those two sectors. urbanizing markets like China (Chart 10). We expected ﬁrmer growth in economic activity and usage there to contribute to a 5-6% rise in global ﬁnal demand next year. 2013 6 Ja nM 12 ay S 12 ep -1 Ja 2 nM 13 ay S 13 ep -1 3 Source: Statistics Canada. World . Mexico. Oct. Galvanizing accounts for about half of global consumption. Ample unused capacity. Less mine and processing investment means capacity will rise more slowly than for most other metals. However the metal faces competition from lightweight steel. capacity additions are likely to see the global supply surplus widen to over 1. Capping prices well below the last cycle’s peak of $3270/tonne. prospects remain challenging for aluminum and nickel. Japan.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. Inventories also remain high for some products.5 mn pace and U-turn in European sales will lend added support. fob. also limit the near-term upside for prices. underpinned by large. tied to assemblers’ efforts to cut weight and fuel consumption has helped support demand. Rising auto demand. NSA 500 480 460 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 Vancouver. versus just over 3% this year. Although that and added capacity could keep prices in a number of sectors from rapidly regaining those peaks.5 million tonnes next year. While Indonesia’s planned ban on ore exports has breathed some life into prices recently. Latest Base Metal Demand Forecast. • Anecdotal evidence suggests the recent slowdown in China’s apparent copper consumption is due at least in part to a decline in unreported inventories. Brazil. Chart 10 Commodities Update—December 2. India. City Dwellers Use More Resources (R) Annual Copper Consumption (tonnes/1. inventories remain high. Indonesia. US. In comparison. with zinc also likely to beneﬁt from relatively limited capacity investment. World Bank. Base Metals prices remain about 30% below the postrecession highs attained early in 2011. a ﬁrming global recovery (Chart 9). much auto and construction related. exacerbated by increases in both nickel pig iron and conventional production. sets the stage for a relatively healthy performance in 2014 and 2015 (Table 2). • The exit of several sources of supply is expected to lend support to zinc. given its cyclicality. relative to some of the other metals. Canadian Potash Exports Have Softened (L) Along with Selling Prices (R) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Ja n M ay S ep M ar Ju l C dn export volumes (2007=100). US$/tonne Last year 1 2013 Wood Mackenzie. CIBC. We continue to see copper as having the greatest potential for medium-term price appreciation. versus around 40% today.000 persons) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 World C hina urban population (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 50 100 Recent mine disruptions are likely to help defer the markets’ move into surplus. aluminum has been dented as with the other metals by concerns about an early start to Fed tapering. 2013 China's Urbanization to Continue (L). Some projections suggest China will account for fully half of global world base metals demand by 20171.
not cancelled.5 -45.000 per ounce. ETF holdings remain high in historical terms. 2013 Potash prices have fallen from a high of nearly $900/ tonne at the 2009 peak and $470 two years ago to around $350 (Vancouver. at this point. implying scope for further liquidation (Chart 12. By that measure. • There have been no fewer than 14 bear markets— deﬁned as a 20% or larger price drop—since the metal’s effective demonetization in 1971 with the end of dollar convertibility—lasting 500 days and involving a roughly one-third price decline on average (Table 3).0 -22.7 -25. versus 10% or less of gold consumption. left).7 -30. Those two entities jointly control roughly 40% of global trade in the key crop nutrient. On a constructive note. • Fed policy contributed to gold’s earlier rise and tapering has been deferred.7 -22. That potentially limits any upside from further possible political brinkmanship in Washington in the next few months. • Our 2014 close of $19/troy oz for silver assumes some slippage in the gold/silver ratio as ﬁrmer growth lifts catalytic and electronics demand for the useful industrial metal.5 -20. Contributing to its greater pro-cyclicality.?) 7 .2 -20. meat) demand is a longer term plus. • Central banks’ net buying has also eased. LBMA.217 545 34 114 417 501 2.3 -45. Our forecast for 5-7% greenback appreciation relative to other currencies in the next year also militates against an early turn. Planned new greenﬁeld and brownﬁeld capacity additions are likely to defer the closure of the current 15-20% global capacity surplus. As implied by our 2014-end target of $1.7 -34. in step with slowing reserve growth. markets have come to treat gold as a risk on rather than off asset (Chart 12.5 -32 -46 Latest (Oct-12 . While the war of words appears to have cooled recently.0 -21. at well over 2 KT.7 -36.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. Table 3 Gold: Bear Markets Since 1972 Start Jun-73 Apr-74 Feb-75 Oct-78 Jan-80 Sep-80 Sep-81 Sep-82 Jan-83 Dec-87 Jul-93 Oct-99 May-06 Sep-11 Average Longest/ Worst Source: Bloomberg. • For all of the recent selling. deeply sold-off producer stocks have traded level with the metal recently.3 -44. observers have been ratcheting down their near-term expectations for demand. in the wake of July’s break-up in the marketing venture between Uralkali and Belaruskali.2 -42. Several factors militate against a strong early recovery in prices to near the levels of a year or two ago. That could favour mining equities for those seeking exposure for longer term or diversiﬁcation reasons. greenback strength and investors’ rotation into stocks to capitalize on an expected pick-up in growth. Gold has been dented in recent quarters by an absence of inﬂation. • Although North American demand has borne up better. • As illustrated by the metal’s somewhat surprising positive correlation with stock prices during the recent US budget/debt standoff.9 -44. Commodities Update—December 2. global buyers are continuing to hold off on signing new contracts in the hopes of still lower prices. the recent sell-off has been about average in price terms and slightly shorter than the median in duration.916 2. fob) recently (Chart 11). over half of silver demand is industrially driven. left). • While rising emerging market protein (i.217 % chg in price -28.e. CIBC End Nov-73 Jul-74 Aug-76 Nov-78 Mar-80 Aug-81 Jun-82 Oct-82 Feb-85 Mar-93 Aug-99 Apr-01 Jun-06 Dec-11 Days 162 93 557 30 66 315 274 26 756 1. reduced government subsidies have restrained demand in some countries. we nonetheless continue to feel the metal still has further to fall in the next year or so. North American inventory levels are also 30% above the past decade’s average.
The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. broker-dealer). CIBC Australia Limited.CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. U. This report does not take into account the investment objectives.2 -0. duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. as with any transaction having potential tax implications. Unauthorized use. CIBC World Markets Inc. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. “CIBC”) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc.3 Jul-11 Jul-12 Mar-12 Nov-11 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 3400 3000 2600 2200 tonnes Last US Default Scare. Such investors will not be able to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views expressed in this document are meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited.3 0. objectives and ﬁnancial circumstances. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient’s convenience and information. © 2013 CIBC World Markets Inc.4 gold & S&P 500 0. in Canada. the Toronto Stock Exchange. any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice.S. 0. 2013 Gold a Less Effective Haven Lately (L). distribution. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved. clients should consult with their own tax advisors. MIIs receiving this report from CIBC World Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. 8 . Downside Risk From Further ETF Sales (R) 120-day correlation. the recipient should consider whether such information is appropriate given the recipient’s particular investment needs. the TSX Venture Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. for distribution only to U. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change.1 0 -0. (b) in the United Kingdom. and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. 26-Nov Source: Bloomberg. CIBC World Markets plc. a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World Markets Inc. and the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document.2 0.. CIBC This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada.S.1 -0. but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Chart 12 Commodities Update—December 2. you contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. CIBC suggests that. prior to acting on any information contained herein. and they should not be relied upon as such. (the U. This report is provided. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. for informational purposes only. ﬁnancial situation or speciﬁc needs of any particular client of CIBC. is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution. Before making an investment decision on the basis of any information contained in this report.. Major Institutional Investors (“MII”) (as such term is deﬁned in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp. and (c) in Australia. This report may provide addresses of. Downgrade 1800 1400 1000 A ug Ju 08 nA 09 pr Fe 10 bD 11 ec O 11 ct A -12 ug -1 3 last obs.S. Internet web sites. which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority. a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively. World Gold Council. or contain hyperlinks to.
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