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1

(Common to MCT and CSE)

B.Tech II Year I Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations December/January 2013/14 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Time: 3 hours Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks *****

1 (a) Determine: (i) P(B/A) (ii) P(A/B ) if A and B are events with P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = (b)

c

Max Marks: 70

1 , P ( A B ) =1 / 2. 4

A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B, C whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 3/4 and 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that the problem is solved? A dealer in refrigerators estimates from his past experience the Probabilities of his selling refrigerator in a day. These are as follows No. of refrigerators sold in a day 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability 0.3 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.12 0.10 0.07 It has been found that only 60% of the riders of two wheelers put on crash-helmets. Find the probability that: (i) 4 out of 5 wall be using their helmets. (ii) At least 4 out of 5 riders will use their helmets and (iii) Fewer then 4 out of 5 riders will be wearing their helmets. If X is a given continuous random variable with p.d.f. given by

2 (a)

(b)

Find K and mean value of X. 3 (a) An irregular six faced die is thrown and the expectation that in 10 throws if will give five even numbers is twice the expectation that it will give four even numbers. How many times in 10,000 sets of 10 throws would you expect it to give no even number? A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on which (i) neither car is used and (ii) some demand is refused. A population consists of four numbers 2, 3, 4, 5. Consider all possible distinct samples of size two with replacement find: The population mean. The population standard deviation (s.d). The sampling distribution of means. The mean of the S.D of means. s.d of S.D of means. Verify (c) and (e) directly from (a) and (b) by use of suitable formulae.

(b)

Contd. in Page 2

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Code: 9ABS304

5 (a) (b) (c) 6 (a) (b)

What is the S.D. of the population, if the maximum error of estimate with probability 0.99 is 0.15 and the size of the sample is 100? A random sample of size 81 was taken whose variance is 20.25 and mean is 32. Construct a 98% confidence interval for the true mean. Maximum error is 0.7. The S.D. of the population is 5. What is the sample size for 0.05 level? 20 people were attached by a disease and only 18 survived. Will you reject the hypothesis that the survival rate if attacked by this disease is 85% in favour of the hypothesis that is more at 5% level? A sample of 64 students has a mean weight of 70 kgs. Can this be regarded as a sample from a population with mean weight 56 kgs and S.D. 25 kgs? To examine the hypothesis that the husbands are more intelligent than the wives, an investigators took a sample of 10 couples administered them that a test which measures the I.Q. The results are as follows: Husbands 117 105 97 105 123 109 86 78 103 107 Wives 106 98 87 104 116 95 90 69 108 85 Test the hypothesis with a reasonable test at the 0.05 level of significance. A pair of dice is thrown 360 times and the frequency of each sum is indicated below: Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7 (a)

(b)

Frequency 8 24 35 37 44 65 51 42 26 14 14 Would you say that the dice are fair on the basis of chi-square test at 0.05 level of significance? 8 In a car wash service facility, cars arrive for service according to a Poisson distribution with mean 5 hours. The time for washing and cleaning each car varies but is found to follow an exponential distribution with mean 10 min. per car. The facility cannot handle more than one car at a time and has a total of 5 parking spaces. (i) Find the effective arrival rate? (ii) What is the probability that an arriving car will get service immediately upon arrival? (iii) Find the expected number of parking spaces occupied?

*****

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Code: 9ABS304

2

(Common to MCT and CSE)

B.Tech II Year I Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations December/January 2013/14 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Time: 3 hours Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** 1 (a) A bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls, and a bag B contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from the bag B. A man is known to speak the truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six. X is continuous random variable with probability density function given by:

x 1 4 for x > 0 e (i) f ( x) = 4 0 elsewhere

Max Marks: 70

(b)

Find the mean and variance of X. 3 If two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards which are diamonds. Using Poisson distribution find the probability of getting two diamonds at least three times in 51 consecutive trials of two cards drawing each time. The population distribution of the lifting powers of weight lifters is known to have a mean of 100 and a s.d 5. For a random sample of 75 weight lifters. Find the probability that the sample mean lifting power will be anywhere between 109 and 111? A random variable of size n = 81 is taken from an infinite population with the mean =128 and the s.d = 6.3 with probability that can be assert that the value we obtain for

4 (a)

(b)

x will not fall between 126.6 and 129.4 if we use Chebyshevs theorem.

5 (a) To estimate the average amount of time visitors take to move from one building to another in an office complex, the mean of a random sample of size n is used. Given = 1.40 min, determine how large should be the sample size if it is ascertained with 99% confidence that the error E is atmost 0.25. Suppose we have a sample of size n = 10 from a normal distribution with unknown mean and variance 2 = 4. Assume that the prior distribution for is normal with mean 0 = 0 and variance 02 = 1. If the sample mean is 0.75, then find the posterior mean 1 and the posterior S.D. 1? Construct the 95% Bayesian interval for . Contd. in Page 2

(b)

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Write a short note on type I and type II errors. In a random sample of 125 cool drinkers, 68 said they prefer Thumsup to Pepsi. Test the null hypothesis P = 0.5 against the alternative hypothesis P > 0.5. An ambulance service claims that it takes on average less than 10 min. to reach its destination in emergency calls. A sample of 36 calls has a mean of 11 min. and a variance of 16 min. Test the significance at 0.05 level. Given below is the number of male births in 1000 families having five children Male children 0 1 2 3 4 5 No. of families 40 300 250 200 30 180 Test whether the given data is consistent with the hypothesis that the binomial law holds if the chance of a male birth is equal to that of a female birth.

8 (a)

(b)

Show that for a single service system, the Poisson arrivals and the exponential service time, the probability that exactly n calling units are in the Queuing system is Pn = (1-)n, n 0, where is the traffic intensity. Explain (M/M/1) : (/FCFS) Queuing model.

*****

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Code: 9ABS304

3

(Common to MCT and CSE)

B.Tech II Year I Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations December/January 2013/14 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Time: 3 hours Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** 1 (a) If A and B are mutually exclusive events P(A) = 4 P(B) and A B = S . Find: (i) P ( Ac B ) (b) (ii) P ( A B c ) (iii) P ( Ac B c ) . Max Marks: 70

2 P ( A B ) 1 / 5 15

The probability density P(x) of a continuous random variable is given P ( x) = Y0 e lxl , < x < . Prove that Y0 = 1/2. Find the mean and variance of the distribution.

3 (a) (b)

Show that limit n binomial distribution approaches Poisson distribution. 20% of the items of a factory are defective. The items are packed in boxes. What is the probability that there will be (i) 2 defective items? (ii) At least three defective items. (iii) 2<defective items < 5 in a box of 100 items. A random sample of size 2 is drawn from the population 3, 4, 5. Find: Population mean. Population s.d Sampling distribution (S.D) of means. The mean of S.D of means (d) s.d of SD of means. To estimate the average time it takes to assemble a certain computer component, the industrial engineer at an electronic firm timed 40 technicians in the performance of the task, getting a mean of 12.73 min. and a S.D. of 2.06 min. (i) What can we say with 99% confidence about the maximum error if x = 12.73 is used as a point estimate of the actual average time required to do the job. (ii) Use the given data to construct 99% confidence interval. (iii) With what confidence we can assert that the sample mean does not differ from the true mean by more than 30 sec. Contd. in page 2

Page 1 of 2

(b)

A sample of heights of 6400 English men has a mean of 67.85 inches and a S.D. of 2.56 inches while a sample of heights of 1600 Australians has a mean of 68.55 inches and S.D. of 2.52 inches. Do the data indicate the Australians are on average taller than the Englishmen? (Use = 0.01). An insurance agent has claimed that the average age of policy holders who issue through him is less than the average for all agents which is 30.5 years. A random sample of 100 policy holders who had issued through him gave the following age distribution. Age 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 No. of persons 12 22 20 30 16 Calculate the arithmetic mean and the S.D. of this distribution and use these values to test his claim at 5% level of significance. A random sample of 10 boys had the following I.Q.s: 70, 120, 110, 101, 88, 83, 95, 98, 107, and 100. (i) Do these data support the assumption of a population mean I.Q of 100? (ii) Find a reasonable range in which most of the mean I.Q. values of the samples of 10 boys lie? A manager of a local hamburger restaurant is preparing to open a new fast food restaurant called hasty burgers. Based on the arrival rates at existing outlets. Manager expects customers to arrive at the drive in window according to a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 20 customers per hour. The service rate is flexible, however, the service time are expected to follow an exponential distribution. The drive in window is single server operation. (i) What service rate is needed to keep the average number of customers in the service system to 4? (ii) For the service rate in part (i), what is the probability that more than 4 customers are in line and begin served?

*****

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Code: 9ABS304

4

(Common to MCT and CSE)

B.Tech II Year I Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations December/January 2013/14 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Time: 3 hours Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** 1 (a) (b) One card is drawn from a regular deck of 52 cards What is the probability of card being either red or a king? A bag contains 12 balls numbered from 1 to 12. If a ball is taken at random what is the probability of having a ball with a number which is a multiple of either 2 or 3? The random variable X has a probability function of the following form: Max Marks: 70

k f ( x ) = 2 k 3k

(a) (b) (c) (d) 3

if x = 0 if x = 1 if x = 2

Otherwise where k is some number Determine the value of k. Find P(x<2), P ( x 2), P(0<x<2). What is the smallest value of k for which F ( x k ) >1 / 2 ? Determine the distribution of X. If a Poisson variate 2P(x = 0) = P ( x = 2) find the probability that: (i) P ( x 3) (ii) P (2 < x 5) (iii) P ( x 3)

random sample must be taken in order that the probability will be at least 0.95 and the sample mean will be with in 0.25 of the population mean? 5 (a) The dean of the college wants to use the mean of a random sample to estimate the average amount of time students take to get from one class to the next and she wants to assert with 99% confidence that the error is atmost 0.25 min. If it can be presumed from experience that = 1.40 min. How large a sample will she have to make? What is Bayesian estimation? Give the relations used to find the mean and S.D. of the posterior distribution? Contd. in Page 2

(b)

Page 1 of 2

(b)

According to the norms established for a mechanical aptitude test persons who are 18 years old have an average height of 73.2 with a S.D. of 8.6. If 45 randomly selected persons of that age averaged 76.7. Test the null hypothesis = 73.2 against the alternative hypothesis > 73.2 at the 0.01 level of significance. In a certain factory there are 2 independent processes for manufacturing the same items. The average weight in a sample of 250 items produced from one process is found to be 120 gms with a S.D. of 12 gms while the corresponding figures in a sample of 400 items from the other process are 124 and 14. Is there significant difference between the means? The manufacturer of a certain make of electric bulbs claims that his bulbs have a mean life of 25 months with a S.D. of 5 months. A random sample of 6 such bulbs gave the following values. Lives of bulbs are 24, 26, 30, 20, 20, and 18. Can you regard the producers claims to be valid at 1% level of significance? The following random samples are measurements of heat producing capacity (in millions of calories per ton) of specimens of coal from two mines: Mine I: 8,260 8,130 8,350 8,070 8,340 Mine II: 7,950 7,890 7,900 8,140 7,920 7,840 Use the 0.02 level of significance to test whether it is reasonable to assume that the variances of the two populations sampled are equal.

7 (a)

(b)

Patients arrive at a clinic according to a Poisson distribution at a rate of 30 patients per hour. The waiting room does not accommodate more than 13 patients not including the one that is been examined. Examination time per patient is exponential with mean rate of 20 per hour. (i) Find the effective arrival rate at the clinic. (ii) What is the probability that an arriving patient will not wait? What is the probability that he finds a vacant seat in the room? (iii) What is the expected waiting time until the patient is discharged from the clinic?

*****

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