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Homicide Rates in a Cross-Section of Countries: Evidence and Interpretations Author(s): Julio H.

Cole and Andrés Marroquín Gramajo Source: Population and Development Review, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Dec., 2009), pp. 749-776 Published by: Population Council Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25593685 . Accessed: 06/01/2014 10:20
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Homicide

Rates

in

a Cross-Section of Evidence Countries: and Interpretations
Julio Andres H. Cole Marroquin Gramajo

Although death?and

violent

death

has been

declared

lem worldwide

a great deal from one examines variation in the country cross-country study a rates for a large sample of countries. We start by providing homicide summary of the data for 2002 (the most recent year forwhich descriptive data of wide coverage are available), the differences stressing particularly to another. This between to which

(Krug, Powell, and Dahlberg rate?varies the homicide particularly

a leading public health prob 1998: 214), the rate of violent

as fa (2001), we define homicides Following Reza, Mercy, and Krug tal injuries inflicted by another person with intent to injure or kill, by any means. category, "deaths caused Specifically, our study focuses on theW-158 in WHO the tabulation.1 This by intentional injuries (violence)/' (2004b) measure excludes both ofwhich

seven major regions of the world. We then investigate the extent can be explained in terms of this pattern of regional variation socioeconomic variables. underlying

self-inflicted deaths and deaths resulting from civil wars, are treated as separate categories in theWHO cause-of-death tables. (We purposely refrain from using the word "murders" in this study, since the data we use report only the cause of death, and there is no way of classification scheme, what proportion of knowing, from this epidemiological "violent deaths" actually involves criminal intent. It seems reasonable to as sume, on the other hand, that inmost countries most reported violent deaths are in fact crime-related, even though many homicides are not themselves cause The WHO rates tabulation of "Death of death" for 2002 crimes.2) by covers 187 countries, with a mid-2002 of 6.179 billion (i.e., 99.2 population of the estimated world coverage complete total). Thus, this source provides of cause-of-death data around the world.3 essentially

percent

POPULATION

AND

DEVELOPMENT

REVIEW

35(4):

749-776

(DECEMBER

2009)

749

This content downloaded from 200.0.176.5 on Mon, 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

relatively low rates. often by a wide margin. they experienced sharp.6 3?. rate 50 60 in 70 This content downloaded from 200. Table 3. the risk of violent death can vary greatly: homicide rates in developed democracies averaged 60 per cent higher in the late 1970s than in the late 1950s.Dev. short-term upsurges in the early 19th century and in the last two decades (Gurr 1981).n 8 }-> <v s o * 20 10- r-| o 11 'MMI l| '1 l| l| '1 1| h ni 'HP| fi n i 0 10 20 30 40 Homicide SOURCE: World Health Organization (2004b).0.000 population) in 2002. Even over relatively brief periods.38 5. but more recently. across time. Figure to their homicide 1 shows the frequency distribution of coun rates (per 100.176.4 0.2 ? Std. Moreover.5 on Mon.000) in 2002 60-<-1 according to 50" Observations 187 Mean Median Maximum Minimum 9. At any point in time the homicide rate also varies greatly across coun tries. the distribution of countries by homicide rates is highly skewed: a few countries have very high homicide most while countries rates.750 Homicide Rates Around the World Homicide Some rates around statistics theworld descriptive Homicide rates vary. have tries according FIGURE 1 Frequency distribution of 187 countries their homicide rates (per 100. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . As Gartner in developed democracies: 92) writes in her study of homicides Homicide hundred (1990: rates inwestern societies appear to have declined over the last several years. 10.7 72.

0. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .Julio H. though 1 lists close.38 per 100. SSA = sub-Saharan Africa 6. Reza.5 per 100. have markedly different homicide rates. OAI = other Asia and islands6 5. Cole / Andres MarroquIn Gramajo 751 The unweighted mean by total population Weighting 9. Mercy. although we found it convenient to disaggregate the LAC countries into two distinct categories: ? LA = Spanish.000.4 Indeed. EME and Krug (2001).3 per 100.176.000.000. countries into six categories: 1. (weighted) average was 30. we follow the geographic regional groupings used by Reza. and Dutch-speaking countries of the Caribbean. which has both a large population and an exceptionally high homicide rate. For comparison.5 world Regional There variation have under 5. over three times the world average. FSE formerly socialist economies = Middle 3. The averages weighted closely exception is the formerly socialist economies in which the (FSE) group. geographically the countries Table 1 reports both weighted and unweighted (by total population) rates and other summary statistics for each regional group average homicide ing.000?but a average upward by relatively few countries with very in the world (52. For most regions the population-weighted averages and the simple. average is affected by the weighted Russian Federation.and Portuguese-speaking countries of theWestern and Hemisphere.e. LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean. in 2002 just over half of all homicides for by the 25 countries percent) were accounted (comprising a total popula countries is a very marked degree of regional variation in worldwide homicide rates. For this purpose.7 per 100. an similar number: 9. French-. who classified = established market economies = 2.5 on Mon. This content downloaded from 200. Mercy. un are similar. over twice the rate The homicide for these 25 countries average).000 (i. This is a useful classification. most the world average homicide have low homicide is boosted rates?half the world rate for 187 countries was tion of 970..08 per yields essentially 100. As noted above. The reason for this separation is that these two groups of countries. Appendix in each of the seven regional groups and their homicide rates.000. This can be seen by comparing averages for countries grouped along and/or socioeconomic lines. ? CAR = English-.6 high rates. and Krug (2001) found that in 1990 rate was 10. MEC East crescent 4.8 million) with rates above 20 per 100.

the FSE region is above the world average.2 0.4 21. and CAR the world in the world (listed in endnote rates are two Homicide in from the these 5) regions. 2002 Standard Median 1.2 Min 0.2 9. As noted.6 0. In this regression.9 19. while dle East crescent are well below the world average.09 rates (per 100.99 8. SSA.752 Homicide Rates Around the World TABLE 1 Worldwide Average_ Weighted EME 2.7 2.08 9.61 72.84 16. on the other hand. region.90 17. FSE.35 deviation 0. is the geometric average homicide which cide rate shows a fairly symmetric and roughly bell-shaped distribution.42 9.48 18.4 32. are much EME group) and in the Middle higher 25 countries with over half of all homicides than in the rest of the world. Panel B.1 3. the average homicide lower than the world average. OAI.46. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . sub-Saharan and Mid the established market economies above the world average. the estimated regression coefficients equal the (unweighted) averages are well Africa and Latin America for each region. The rates for each region. it is useful to check whether treme values repeated variable.2 187 NOTE: For fuller designation of regions.98 8. If rate for that region is slightly below Russia is excluded. and CAR are dummy variables EME.81 6.6 0.496.4 12.176.65 OAI 21. Panel A).2 3.01 SSA LA 24. rate for that group of countries. For the full listof countries in each regional cat egory.48 3. As a group.44 18. country belongs otherwise). Note that most regions are not significantly different from one another.5 N 25 19 31 33 46 19 14 World 9.7 10. OAI.7 variable Given the highly skewed nature of the dependent (homicide are determined by a few ex these results rate).00 6. developed countries (the East crescent. although now each estimated coefficient equals in some of the regional groupings. LA. the logarithm of the geometric average of the homicide on the FSE dummy is 1. as noted.38 CAR homicide Unweighted 1. MEC.38 5. and elA96 = 4.93 MEC 5.34 FSE 3.67 4.4 0. The interpretation to the previous regression. (= 1 if the = 0 to the so.9 4. see list in text above.34 7. Homicide tend to be much rates in Latin American and sub-Saharan African countries of the average. The regression was therefore rate as the dependent using the natural logarithm of the homicide of for the visual the logarithm of the homi histogram (A inspection This content downloaded from 200.75 10.8 0.7 21.25 10.3 72. these results is to compute a regression of Another way to summarize rates on regional dummies homicide (Table 2. the coefficient (For example. this is largely the effect of a single large country.11 4.0 2. by construc corresponding tion.000) by region.1 50. see Appendix 1. though.0.) is analogous results are shown in Table 2. The FSE.5 on Mon.97 Max 5.

000 NOTE: For fuller designation of regions.000 0.5 on Mon. One major purpose of this study.039 2.) averages are much less sensitive to extreme values.170 0.573 9. Cole / Andres MarroquIn Gramajo 753 TABLE regional Regional 2 Regressions dummy dummies (least squares) of homicide 187 countries Coefficient Std. while the world average.000 0.778 2.298 1.450 OAI 2.028 8. Panel A (dependent variable is homicide 1.8 Of course. see Appendix 1. so any observed differences in this regression are much less likely to reflect the influence of a few outliers in some regions.000 0.670 2. This content downloaded from 200. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .547 0. however.Julio H.694 0. how much of the region fundamental variables).039 1.e. then.667 0.452 0.422 0.150 EME 1.476 SSA 18.379 0.416 LA 9.321 R-squared 0.954 MEC 1.310 2.195 0.813 MEC 6. The point to note about these regressions.389 4. Mutatis mutandis. The FSE.000 16.018 0. variables.754 3..153 0. more (i.340 EME 7.148 0.000 0.590 SSA 2.195 rate) 0.375 12. the results for Panel B are in fact quali regions have lower tatively similar to those for Panel A: the EME and MEC than average homicide the SSA and LA regions are well above rates.000 0.241 9.977 CAR R-squared Adjusted 0.788 20.093 CAR R-squared Adjusted 0.828 0.0.882 7.000 0.543 LA 1. is that they "ex plain" about 32 percent of the cross-country variation in homicide rates?and about variation 50 percent of the variation in the logarithm of the homicide rate?us ing only the regional dummies. see list in text above. For the full listof countries in each regional cat egory.500 R-squared 0. OAI.483 0. there effects this way is no numerical the difference between measuring as in and the averages regional computing regional directly Table 1. and CAR regions are not significantly dif ferent from one another.000 0.648 13. is to examine the extent towhich this "region effect" can be explained in terms of in underlying socioeconomic variables effect persists after controlling for other.227 6.176.496 FSE log of homicide 0.000 0. Geometric and similarly for each of the other regional dummies.484 FSE 3.125 0.000 Panel B (dependent variable is natural 0.596 1.031 3.842 OAI rate) 1. rates in 2002 on error t-statistic Prob.

it finds little support studies. Neumayer and Pratt and Cullen 2005). leads to a more intense competition for resources in overcrowded cities. perhaps.176. It is expected that a high level of urbanization. Land. Reza. Fajnzylber. more likely than other age groups in general. especially in developing countries. Therefore an increase in the proportion in the population is expected. Gartner and Parker (1990) and Pampel and Gart in cross-national ner (1995) argue that this effect holds in some countries. on homicide per a effect strong although it is not clear that itnecessarily has se (with the exception. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . so we Age that young males. on the empirical literature in order to identify the socioeco focus mainly rates in nomic variables that are most commonly associated with homicide finds support in at least some cross-national studies. and Krug 2001).754 Homicide Rates Around the World Empirical Literature The social correlates of violence: review science literature on factors affecting levels of lethal violence variables have been found to be correlated with homicide is at vast. Differences in cultural norms regarding alcohol consumption and firearms possession (see below) are almost surely a factor as well. and in violent activities Gottfredson 1983. other things equal. 444-446. but that it cannot easily be generalized the presence or absence of certain types of institutional is context-specific: in any arrangements will mitigate or strengthen the age effect on homicides given country. level predictors of homicide 2003: 620-623. structure known 15 and 29. Wilson It iswell 1985: 126-147). Each of these variables studies. Urbanization Urbanization has also been linked with criminality (Wilson and Herrnstein and Loayza 2002: 26). character and urban poverty. to elevate of young males and Herrnstein the homicide rate. 430-431. since it States. and Cohen 1990. are in the age range between and than females to be engaged in crime in particular (Wolfgang 1968.0. Rising criminality within ized by high unemployment the context of the greater anonymity provided by urban settings might result This content downloaded from 200. Mercy. Pridemore 2002. We are not interested in taking sides in these debates. 1985: 411.5 on Mon. The victims of ho micide are also predominantly young male adults (Fingerhut and Kleinman 1990. McCall. such as the United across all countries. of homicides that are incidental to property which goes hand in crimes). Hirschi and Many of these variables are the subject of ongoing debates in of field the (For reviews of the theoretical literature on macro criminology. see Neuman and Berger 1988. Lederman. hand with rural-to-urban migration. Plausible as this notion may seem. and many themacro-level. but there is far from a uniform consensus.

Bourguignon 1976.. rates as a proxy for poverty. largely because we lack internationally He proposes comparable poverty measures. a strong cor not and Loayza others do find Lederman. regression analysis in urbanization as possible of urbanization. is based on a sample of only 46 countries. if people are less. the theory says. Hansmann and Quigley 1982. especially that it is not inequality as such (relative deprivation). below we consider both the level and the change explanatory variables. study replicate analysis larger sample density Population the relationship between population rates Although density and homicide a has never been the main focus of cross-national empirical study. His study. Avison This content downloaded from 200. if they live side by side in cit by wider gaps in wealth. as affluence grows.176. and violent crime rates (Krohn and Gartrell 1986. The contrast between the haves and have-nots becomes not separated ies" (1985:446). and to those not possessing it. rarely focusing inequality. Hartnagel. Pridemore deprivation) determining (2008). As Wilson to commit crime will find the countryside with any preexisting tendency the tendency strengthened when the risk of recognition is slight. itmay seem . although note that the effect of and Herrnstein relation (Neumayer 2005). this vari able is often included as a control variable in studies focused on other ex planatory variables (see. Wilson "Wealth tends to be accumu inequality may be enhanced by urbanization: lated unequally. Fajnzylber..0. Thus. and where (1985: 445). palpable. however. One of our objectives to a is this for much of countries. and finds that once the use of infant mortality is controlled for. Other studies argue. Income inequality and poverty equality. 2002). according towhich "aggression is held to be spurred by a sense of frustration 2003: 498). for instance. 2001. and relative poverty" (MacKellar studies rates. as measured by the Gini coefficient. for instance. Cole / Andres MarroquIn Gramajo 755 he finds property owned latter considerations also from and Herrnstein put it: "Amigrant from such social changes. the effect of inequality disappears. inequitable as well as unequal. The Income inequality has received much attention in the literature on crime Some studies find a positive correlation between and homicide. but that cross-national tionship between poverty and homicide on consider this instead is This variable. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . Krahn. but poverty (absolute is the that factor. how poverty in this ever.5 on Mon. income in more. These by people he does not know" the active factor that suggest might not be the level our in but rising urbanization. notes that most studies based on United States data find a significant rela connection between inequality and violence has often been ex in terms the relative deprivation of so-called plained theory of homicide.Julio H.

We use this data source rates the effect of these three types of heterogeneity on homicide in our sample of countries. which was compiled 1980s (see Roeder 2001).176. but low crime rates are found in both high and low at best. societies tend to be less conflict-prone." Thus the effect of population density is ambiguous We nonetheless include this variable in order to see whether on homicides in our sample of countries. Itmay make distinctions between so generate conflict. density societies. Hartnagel. ithas an effect Ethno-linguistic and religious heterogeneity rate (Hansmann and Quigley 1982. rather than as the main in several ways. One problem with this index is that it conflates two ethno-linguistic of types heterogeneity. that might not induce conflict are to the same degree. Education a control variable. In fact. This seems plausible.5 on Mon. and that ethnic differences can lead to conflict when public groups. Itmight also increase contact between individuals and thus increase the likelihood of interpersonal violence" (Krahn. Alesina for a large number of countries along of heterogeneity database ofmeasures three dimensions: to examine ethnic. To overcome these difficulties. and Gartrell 1986: 287).0. education has also been used mainly as can focus of analysis. by Russian scholars in the 1960s and updated in the This index is interpreted as the probability that two in any given country will belong to different individuals Education As in the case of population density. Neumayer 2003). linguistic and ethnic. and religious. ithas been suggested that as far as homicides even and have effects concerned Quigley (Hansmann opposite they might et al. (2003) compiled a 1982: 215). Most fractionalization have been based on the so-called ethno-linguistic (ELF) in policies benefit dex. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . linguistic. although Neuman and Berger for crime (Gil opportunities rich and poor more visible and suggested that "high density (1988: 294) note that "[m]ost theorists expect high density to be associated with high crime rates. Low education influence rates of homicide among poorer This content downloaded from 200. randomly selected suggested that ethnic diversity can bring conflict because of since in a fragmented society it might be particularly political competition. groups tends to increase the homicide Avison and Loring 1986). difficult to agree on the amount and kind of public goods the government should provide.756 Homicide Rates Around the World It has been and Loring 1986. (Often it is the converse argument that is proposed. can highlight inequalities and can provide more lis 1974).) namely that relatively homogeneous It has also been It is frequently argued that a high degree of heterogeneity within a society to conflict and that the interaction of heterogeneous social is conducive some groups at the expense of others (Easterly and Levine recent cross-country studies of the effects of ethnic diversity 1997).

Divorce has also been linked to homicides.Julio H. 1998. has a negative and significant effect on homicides. Krug. one would homicide. LaFree and Johnson Monkkonen 193. would be expected to have higher levels of violence. the well-known rates. efficient institutional mechanisms will both help to prevent crimes and prosecute them effectively when they occur. Cole / Andres MarroquIn Gramajo 757 sectors of society might lead to high unemployment and to poverty-related and crimes and homicides. (which includes effective criminal prosecution and certainty in punishment) might provide a deterrent effect and therefore contribute to lower rates of in general. an effective court system provides an criminality alternative for conflict resolution." components of this indicator?such and "control of corruption"?might be correlated with the level of crime and For example. In addition. Lester 1995. and Dahlberg Rossow and 2001). "as disputes were increasingly resolved in courts rather than on street cor in bars. and ithas been suggested that this explains the long-run historical decline of homicide rates in European countries. One of our objectives examine whether there is a gender effect in the relationship between educa tion and homicide Governance rates. expect that an effective judicial system crime rates declined. Kraay. and found the effect of education Cullen (2005) also examined in homicide attainment that this effect was Given rather weak. for instance. and Macmillan (1999) used an education In their meta index to explain spousal violence against women. although it an effect on robberies. Powell. They also used an index of educational inequality and found that itdoes not affect homicides. violent to violence Indicator" (see Kaufmann. (2005: citing 1996)." Countries with weak justice systems. Other factors often mentioned in the empirical literature are the preva lence of firearms possession and the consumption of alcohol (Killias 1993. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .5 on Mon. and Mastruzzi for a description of this project and the results achieved so far). Over the past several years. it is perhaps gender patterns in homicide never considered the possibility that male surprising that past studies have is to and female education might differ in their effect. Several as the "rule of law. found that cities with high divorce rates have ners and This content downloaded from 200. a major research an internationally project at the World Bank has been developing compa rable "World Governance 2008 In a well-functioning social system.0. writes. Parker and Cartmill 1998. Pridemore has (2008) used the education component Index as a control variable to explain variation of the Human Development and Gartner rates. in contrast. Pratt and analysis of quantitative criminological on crime. Fajnzylber. to 1960 research from 1999. indicators institutions should therefore have The quality of a country's government some relevance for crime rates. as measured by the Barro and Lee (2001) dataset. Williams Flewelling (1988).176. Lederman." "political stability. Loayza (2002) found that educational attainment.

on a scale from 0 (lowest inequality) to 100 (high under one = Number of deaths among Infant mortality 1000 live of births.758 Homicide Rates Around the World significantly higher rates of both family and non-family homicides.08 9. The analysis is based on 91 countries forwhich data 1 (see Appendix 2 for data for all of the variables in Regression list of countries). while Gartner (1990) found that rates of divorce are correlated with homicide rates.4 72.38 6. measured est inequality).5 0. this cross-section of countries will not suffer from sample-selection Regression 1 includes the following aged = Gini 15-29 explanatory variables: Young men = Males as a percent (2002. Regression analysis were vari Regressions of the logarithm of the homicide rate on the socioeconomic are 3. given the lack of reliable and comparable data for a large enough sample of countries. Itwould be difficult to incorporate such factors in this study. On the other hand. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .4 0.2 The summary statistics for the reduced sample are quite similar to those for the full 187 countries. however.89 9. but only for a certain age range of victims. in Table ables described above The specific regression models reported are numbered 1 to 7. so we feel confident that a regression analysis based on bias. the 91 of 5.5 on Mon.2 5.28 10. because of data limitations our original sample of 187 countries is essentially cut in half.000 (83 percent of the world's total).12 9.2 billion in countries in the reduced sample had a combined population available sources and rates per 100. level = Urban population children as a percent of total popula = in the percent of in urbanization Change (1980-2002) Change 1980 and 2002.176. by the fol fairly 2002 were lowing comparison: Average_ Weighted Unweighted Standard deviation Median Max Min Sample (N 91) World (N= 187) = 8. between urban population = Number of inhabitants per square km (2002).9 year age per Urbanization tion (2002). and their homicide as a as rates to for the similar world indicated whole. density Population This content downloaded from 200.7 12. Thus. Income distribution coefficient year). although we revisit some of these factors when we interpret the empirical results obtained.0.61 72. 2000. of total population or nearest available (2002).

5 govern in influencing homicide Interestingly. A seemingly aber the lower the homicide males.000 inhabitants. The in the empirical of governance. = Index of Religious religious heterogeneity. and the results suggest that the higher the average rate. a number to +2. Ethnic These three heterogeneity indexes are similar to the ELF index: they are as the in any interpreted probability that two randomly selected individuals to different ethnic. in 2000.n for themale population Female WGI ance). population density?are main is Gini The the which index. ethno-linguistic are both highly significant and with schooling vari ables are also significant. rant finding. = Index of Linguistic linguistic heterogeneity. years of schooling for fractionalization and the quality the expected sign.5 on Mon. for 1985. on a is in fact quite small.13 exception gests that. = Average years of schooling schooling lation aged 15 and over. given country will belong ranging from 0 (totally homogeneous population). change in urbanization.10 Male aged = Average years of schooling schooling 15 and over. suggest. a to increase the homicide rate by about 24 percent. from 30 to 40.4 percent. is the direction of the effect for female schooling: the these data would higher the average years of schooling forwomen. however. Thus. in 2000.12 for the female popu ranging (best possible from -2. in the inequality versus poverty debate. Cole / Andres Marroquin Gramajo 759 a number ranging ELF = Index of ethno-linguistic fractionalization. that the effect of the Gini take a 10-point increase in the Gini index (say. = World Governance Indicator. (2003) database: = Index of ethnic heterogeneity. linguistic. according to the regression estimate. poverty (as proxied by the infant mortal rates?proportion not level and/or ity rate). as numbers and they are all measured to 1 population) (totally heterogeneous This content downloaded from 200. a one-point increase in inequality would increase the homicide rate by about 2.0. using data from the Alesina et al. the ethno-linguistic frac Regression 2 experiments with disaggregating tionalization measure. This very large change) is not a large effect. It should be noted. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . however. although statistically significant by conventional standards. sug statistically significant.5 (worst possible quality of governance) in 2002. Itwould On the other hand. Recall that in our data the Gini index ismeasured scale from 0 to 100. (pace Pridemore 2008) inequality is the driving factor. index.Julio H. to 1 from 0 (totally homogeneous population) (totally heterogene ous population). or religious groups. two variables not often stressed literature. most of the "usual suspects" of young males.176. the higher the rate of homicides per 100.

017 0.007 -0.828] [-0.436] [-0.074 -0.139* 1.265] [1.590 1.520] index 1.005 -0.405] [1.267** [-2.076] [0.209] [3.397] [1.002 -0.380 1.163 0.800] [-0.017 0.001 [-0.806] [0.248] [-2.017 0.406] [-0.261** 1.605] [3.877] [-0.340] [-2.031* 0.0001 -0.311* -0.547] Male schooling (years) -0.416] Regression number 0.630] Constant 1.006 -0.398] [1.821] [-0.600 1.301* -0.253] [3.037] [-2.644] [2.082 Population density -0.294** 0.039* 0.5 on Mon.464** 2.237 heterogeneity This content downloaded from 200.002 Urbanization level -0.446] [1.029* 0.995* 0.140] -0.283* -0.215] [4.0001 -0.508] [-0.0001 -0.118] [-LIU] [-1.176.014 0.054] [0.024* Independent variable_[1]_[2]_[3]_[4]_[5]_[6]_[7]_ Homicide 3 TABLE 2002: Regression rates. results heterogeneity Ethnic 1.580] [-2.160** 1.032] [2.126] [2.002 -0.260* -0.836] [2. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .076 -0.158] [-1.0.017 0.380] [-0.0001 -0.004 -0.353] [1.589] [-1.603 1.060] [-0.804] [-0.[4.403** ELF [1.382] [1.204] [-0.087] [2.0001 [0.032 Linguistic Religious heterogeneity -0.407] [-0.301* -0.004 -0.597] [-3.565] -0.024* Change in urbanization 0.657] [-0.662] [-0.018** 1.069] [4.002 (1980-2002) [1.391] [1.076 -0.493 1.364] [1.988] [-0.

273 * 0.176.310] [-0.713** 0.680] [-0. the percent 5 significance ** the at percent * level.023 literacy Male rate (%) -0.282 NOTE: All of the regressions were estimated by brackets in Numbers OLS.196] [-3.171 le chooling (years) 0.645 (p-value)_0.491] [0.774] [-6.[-2.855** [3.711 ** White 0.849] 793 ** -0.436 SSA 0.697 ** -0.645_0.525 dummy This content downloaded from 200.531] [2.398] [2.404] [-4.233 OAI dummy dummy 0.293 ** * 0.745 [2.036 * -0.291 **0. are t-values of the estimated coefficien indicates level.872] [-4.874] N 91 88 91 91 91 91 index [-6.053] [1.594_0. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .258 ** test 0.291 0.490_0.5 on Mon.0.084_0.802] [0.742 ** -0.558_0.580] [2.693] [4.738 ** -0.088 FSE MEC dummy CAR -0.711] ** -0.830] [-4.792 -0.267] LA dummy 0.496_0.765] [2.346] [2. 1 (%) literacy Female *rate 0.668 **0.182 dummy 0.634] [-4.266] [0.812 0.

other things to rates that are. plus some contained ethnic and linguistic heterogeneity that are 4.176. with a positive effect on the dependent variable. However. The coefficients for Regression fractionalization index. average years Index and female). significant. is on the right track after are practically identical to those 1 it adds the dummy variables Regression is the established market ble 2 (the reference point for the regional dummies has the economies which lowest homicide average rate). driving factor.0. With regard region. which of which captures additional values for the linguistic variable are missing. regression nificant at the 1 percent level of confidence. but retains the Latin Regression In variables are statistically sig all of the America this dummy. the addition of the re is in fact reflected in Regression The purpose of Regression captures the regional variation 5 is to see whether 1 adequately Regression rates. Haiti. which suggests thatmost of the regional 1. This means that. and Rwanda are quite for the other variables the explanatory power the proaches margin of 5 percent significance. on have in America homicide Latin tend countries equal. the ethnic to ELF its is and coefficient the index that of highly significant. indicating that some residual regional variation remains unaccounted on that this indicate 1. and the World Governance of schooling (both male one almost variable (Latin America) explain regional dummy (WGI)?plus rate in the sam 70 percent of the variation in the logarithm of the homicide in Regression gional dummies significantly increases the adjusted R-square for 5. is somewhat lower. This seems to suggest that ethnic diversity. This can be seen clearly in Re in Regression gression includes both variables. which Itmay well be that the ethno-linguistic conflates ethnic and linguistic differences. The dummies coefficients the regional by Regression effect is likely to come from Latin America. ELF index apparently the Thus.However. and only the ethnic index ap are lost because only the ELF index is all of the information interactions between in the ethnic vari not reflected able alone. sion 3 is somewhat lower than forRegression 1. The regression indicates that fractionalization four basic variables?ethno-linguistic (ELF). To the list of regressors in for six of the regions defined in Ta 6 drops all non-significant regressors. This content downloaded from 200.5 on Mon. for the other variables 1. If the linguistic and religious indexes are dropped index is heterogeneity (Regression 3). The following results stand out: a) The Latin America dummy remains statistically significant. to the non-dummy 1 main the difference between regressors.762 Homicide Rates Around the World Three observations for El Salvador. so ELF must add something that is not reflected in the ethnic variable. Regressions and 5 is that income distribution is no longer significant. comparable 1. ple of 91 countries. Although the coefficients similar to the results for Regression 1. not linguistic is the the explanatory power of Regres diversity. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . in the ethnic variable. None of the regional dummies variation is individually significant. in homicide all.

with countries with "average" governance having a rating of 0.16). the difference be b) and a totally heterogeneous tween a totally homogeneous one) population a rate (el-261 implies roughly 250 percent increase in the average homicide 3. other things equal.53). Cole / Andres Marroquin Gramajo 763 average.5 to +2. countries at the extreme low end of this range (worst possible governance) would be expected to have a homicide rate (~2-5) about 6 times higher than a country with "average" governance (r?-738x = a 6. An increase in homi in the homicide the net effect is a slight decrease cide rates associated with more female education would women's show up if that a social transition of this denly caught up. Indeed. as percentages. we find the same effect in Regression 7. then both male and female schooling rate. A in increase the World Governance Index reduces the d) one-point rate by about 74 percent. at least in some cultures. Thus.5.33). We return to this point in the following section. Recall from semi-logarithmic pretation dummy Table 1 that average homicide rates in Latin America are in fact roughly twice the world average.04) (see Halvorsen in variables of regressions). roughly twice as high as those in similar countries located outside 1980 on the inter and Palmquist this region (e0JU = 2. be the case in a country where attainment for educational (This would females traditionally lagged behind male educational attainment and sud the opposite direction of the effects of male and female education is quite on not measure since direction of effect does the robust. if correct. whereas schooling reduces the homicide increase of one year in the level of female schooling increases the homicide c) Other rate by about 26 percent. which uses literacy rates as the measure of education. Years of schooling is a better measure of educa tional attainment.Julio H.176. = male things equal.. should be kept in proper is larger. The WGI is defined over a range average homicide from -2. if increase by about the same amount.e. Therefore. Note that the negative coefficient on male schooling in absolute value. This result. both female literacy rates and female years of schooling are positively and significantly correlated with homicide rates. an increase of one year in the average level of an rate by about 29 percent. Data on male and measured female literacy rates are from the World Development Indicators (World Bank). It seems intuitively plausible sortmight create significant maladjustments.5 on Mon. perspective. than the positive coefficient on female schooling. An increase in the ELF index from 0 to 1 (i. since literacy rates only indicate the proportion that has achieved a given minimum level of education.) We should also mention that increased at a significantly greater rate than men's schooling schooling.0. average governance (r0738x2 This content downloaded from 200.33 = 0. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . population of the In any case. while country at the high end of the range (best possible govern rate about 6 times lower than a country with ance) would have a homicide 5= 1/6. depend particular of education that is used.

proportion and population of young males. of governance. the unexpected that can explain it is possible to propose plausible hypotheses This content downloaded from 200. been used for a large nic. rates than the ethnic and index (ELF) has The ethno-linguistic fractionalization it has been criticized on the grounds for this purpose. but ethno-linguistic diversity appears rate. of the variables omitted have The present analysis variables. heterogeneity should be measured. density) are not statistically our in that studies might This suggests past cross-country significant study. this result. Nevertheless.14 education: to be critical rates around result for female education is counterintuitive. and religious diversity drawn from a new database other things. Quality of was found to be a highly significant predictor of homicide and political law enforcement.5 on Mon. although In this that its conflation of ethnic and linguistic diversity is unwarranted. the separate effects ofmale and female education. we find that the original tends to increase the homicide ELF index is a much linguistic measures Importance better predictor of homicide considered separately. stability appear government. results for female Unexpected Possible interpretations At first glance. and some cultural or institutional factors that are related to one main region (Latin America). Role of ethno-linguistic heterogeneity that the interaction of heterogeneous there is a growing consensus Although social groups within countries often tends to promote conflict and associated on how population there is no consensus social pathologies. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . This variable the Bank's World defined by governance governance rates. in homicide the observed variation factors in understanding the world.764 Homicide Rates Around the World Summary Relative Most and interpretation of results of conventional social variables unimportance commonly thought to influence country-level homicide rates according to the social science literature (income inequality. we find that religious diversity sample of countries. Among no on to have homicide effect rates. urbanization. sug important explanatory include ethno-linguistic the quality gests that such variables heterogeneity. measures to of eth we ELF it index and compared tested the separate study of institutions institutions mainly In this study we conceptualize by the degree of good as index. In addition.176.0. linguistic.

In the absence risky lifestyles. (Akerlof 1998 a detailed discussion of behavioral differences between married and provides men. for home devote less of work them leave and. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . greater Fiala and LaFree (1988). Braithewaite. Accordingly. Figure 2. Hence one would which they expect that. and (iii) "because women tend to have less labour market experience than men. an increase in the general level of female education might increase the general level ofmale insecurity in society. as female education increases. and argues that this is because (i) increased female employment lowers wages as a result of the increased supply of labor. Macmillan and Gartner noting that women who work (1999) propose a slightly different are at less risk of spousal violence unmarried male hypothesis. is positively associated with crime in England and ing female employment Wales. they tend to enter the job market downward wage pressure to be on the margins of crime. (1) One might expect that as women larger as a consequence. more young in turn might wages (particularly among less skilled male workers).5 on Mon. one con become more competitive (2) As women and/or lower real sequence might be higher levels of male unemployment is a significant determinant of homicides in Australia their (see especially on More Hansen ris found that also p. keeping other factors constant. Thus. males tend to have more other single for a longer period of time (and precisely at the ages at are most prone to engage in criminal activities). which lead tomore crime in general. putting in lower skilled jobs who are more likely age men domesticates males and makes them marriage of this domestication. remain less violent. Cole / Andres Marroquin Gramajo 765 become more educated. (1998). or because they are discriminated against. One study that supports this view isKapuscin and Chapman ski. this also delays the average at which men marry.Julio H.176." in the job market. which might tend to increase violence. This early neglect might have adverse effects on on homicide offspring later in life.) In (4) Some men tend to be intimidated by highly educated women. such cases. This content downloaded from 200. The positive effect of female education rates might also be traced through a different route: higher female educa in the labor market. (ii) low wages and crime are known to be related." that a higher level of female education delays the (3) It iswell-known average age at which women marry. Gartner (1990: 101) remarks that children vulnerable appear the "strongest effects of the shift away from nuclear family-based activities in the labor force to among children. among are more social pathologies. homicides likely to occur. and. The greater the ratio of women a rates the the of child result also found by households. 230). (2006: 1-2) recently. a higher proportion of relatively increases the likelihood of occurrence of illegal activities young single males that might lead to crime and homicides. who found that female employment on males lower down on the earnings distribution. proportions time to early childrearing. tion leads to more women participating leaving more to violence at home. homicide.0. one could say that Colloquially.

violence has increased in some Central American countries. and most victims of homicide also are men. The first hypothesis. with the emergence of large street gangs known as maras (for an analysis of this phenomenon organized see Pinheiro 2007). Hypotheses partners are also employed. and (4) are consistent with this on the other hand. but good governance probably mitigates the effect of there. so any tenable explanation must be in terms of the effect that female education has upon violence. 1948). Colombia century?for Guatemala Nicaragua (1968-96). even higher in Europe. and "a legacy of scores to be settled There is evidence that homicide tries that have society. and they might all be part of the explanation for our finding that female education increases the rate. Nor do our data reflect the recent upsurge in drug-related (since La example. in society accept past has also created a "culture of violence/' where people and approve of violence to defend themselves and to resolve disputes. but that they are at substan risk when the male partner is unemployed. would have to explain. Collier and Hoeffler (2004: of experienced periods a to of factors: a large stock of guns this due combination that is 11) argue ofmany in the hands of the civilian population. (1979-92). El Salvador of civil wars in the recent and Peru (1981-95). Most homicides committed by men. but is now challenged by the rising number of females entering employment.0. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions . the sudden demobilization across the violent men into civil society. (3). they might all be wrong as well." Hom in some Latin American countries might therefore be partly icidal violence of the experience long-lasting and intense civil wars during by explained the second half of the twentieth Violencia'm (1981-88).176. why a lesser degree ofmaternal investment affect male children more than female children.15 The prevalence This content downloaded from 200. in addition. Homicide There in Latin America (2). This was once achieved in the workplace. in childrearing could rates in this region of the is clearly something special about homicide in world. and reduced inhibitions about settling them through violence. (On the other hand. breadwinner and provider. One element that probably contributes to high levels of violence is the region with the is the "alcohol culture/' Latin America Latin America second highest alcohol consumption Granted.16 have not improved since 2002. it is per capita (WHO 2004a). Hansen tially greater (2006: 23) similarly claims that "increasing male crime is an attempt by men to reassert their male male-on-male requirement.766 Homicide Rates Around the World when to reclaim their status and power and reaffirm their role as theirmasculinity. Circumstances Indeed.) Note homicide must be consistent with the also that any explanation for this phenomenon are stylized facts regarding gender patterns in homicides. high alcohol consumption rates generally tend to increase in coun civil war." are not mutually These four hypotheses exclusive.5 on Mon.

We found that socio explain most of the regional effects. This content downloaded from 200. on which sociological.176. On the other hand. In short. shed some light. and our challenge to include socioeconomic in the variables that have been proposed for the regional effects. deserves and demographic. One major finding was that countries with high levels of cultural and tend to have higher homicide rates." but so do in stitutions. Education was also found to be significantly associated with homicide this is the first study that separates rates. "culture matters. Conclusions Our initial goal was to explain the cross-country. psychological hypotheses may appears to increase the homi economic. which by some accounts has reached the level of a civil (Gonzalez 2009). ethnic heterogeneity countries with a high ranking on theWorld Bank's quality of governance indicator tend to have lower rates. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .Julio H. We showed that regional in homicide dummies became literature. and to the best of our knowledge as explanatory male and female education variables. in order to account economic variables do indeed can explain a large proportion of this variation. This finding.0. with the exception of the Latin America dummy.5 on Mon. further scrutiny. using data for the most re cent year forwhich suitable data were available. Our most novel (and unexpected) finding was that female education cide rate. cross-sectional variation rates in a large sample of countries. Cole / Andres MarroquIn Gramajo 767 violence war inMexico.

4 13.2 10.5 on Mon.3 45631.1 2.7 Armenia Afghanistan 485 3.4 Hungary 2.2 0.736 48.176.9 Switzerland United United 15.8 119 Slovenia 15.9 1.0 2.3 1.3 135 10.0 7.763 31.0 Sweden 0.3 7.7 594 82.4 16 7.6 130 11.0 56 0.6 3.9 Serbia Slovakia 47.0 3.34 Middle East crescent 4.7 173 Belgium 1.0 Moldova 12.1 States 59.1 1.4 50 4.0 Belarus Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Czech and Herzegovina 2.3 61 4964.2 181 48 16.7 Germany 0.4 Subtotal2.4 5.000 (2002) homicides Mid-year (millions) Regional Established Australia Austria market group economies (per population and country Number 100.4 0.9 1.2 Latvia12.4 1.5 Republic Macedonia Russian Federation 32.1 12.0 Spain 1.4 8 Monaco Norway Portugal 1.4 2952.0.6 Lithuania 370 10. with homicide Total Rate rates per (2002) 100.9 Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand 1.2 331.5 1.862 1.000) Andorra 0.4 5.4 243 10.4 1113.2 Estonia 15.44 Kingdom 92 8.2 Greece Iceland Ireland 0.3 10.0 184 3.5 Canada Denmark France 1.2 78821.2 785127.8 136 2.5 143 42341.8 Romania3.1 1.7 407 Finland 166 3.03 3.1 3.0 1.569 288.1 21.APPENDIX inhabitants 1 Countries by regional group.7 0.0 68338. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .5 Ukraine Subtotal 18.3 631 5.1 19.5 0.6 1.8 145.7 3.4 Formerly socialist economies Albania 6.1 This content downloaded from 200.0 2 39 628 57.0 Algeria 3.7 76 3.9 4.9 1.1 285 75 8.9 67 7.291 9.0 0 0.009 862.6 Japan 1.3 Poland 1.0 1.1 Italy 0.0 12.2 59.3 1 0.9 235 86 210 1.9 1.5 5.448 60.1 1.

176.7 Qatar Saudi Arabia 3.7 Kuwait Kyrgyz Republic 8.3 14.3 4.8 India 5.6 2.9 3.1 Cyprus 0.5 Morocco 1. Korea.541 309 5. South North 1.4 322 29.1 1.6 148 5.9 1.0 641 21.3 618.1 Oman 2.5 on Mon.390 20.0 Lebanon 2.2 3.0 706 24.9 Kazakhstan 19.330 8 0.1 2.7 14.4 Bangladesh Bhutan 26 4.2 2 175 0.7 79669.0 2.9 142 5.1 23.6 Laos 5.3 Subtotal 3.000) 2.4 5 0.784 1.02 15..8 Israel 2.280.7 Syria Tajikistan Tunisia Turkmenistan United Arab Emirates Uzbekistan Yemen.7 Regional Azerbaijan Bahrain (per population and country Number 100.6 2.382 69.4 5.295 10.3 79.4 32 144..9 7 0.2 0.4 Kiribati Korea. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .2 1.0.9 66.9 442 5.799 3.8 Georgia Iran 3.5 19.8 0.1 China 3.5 6 6.5 24.3 Cambodia 17. This content downloaded from 200.1 414 19.8 471 4.9 1.0 35 3.4 Turkey 189 2.3 144.3 3.8 880 47.3 13.5 Libya Malta 1.1 6.2 51 2.6 885 5.7 Malaysia 7.7 Maldives Marshall Mauritius Micronesia Mongolia Islands 1.4 Brunei Darussalam 1.Total group Rate homicides (2002) Mid-year (millions) 8.762 /.266 38.1 Pakistan3.8 25.6 6.6 2. 10.184 57.0 Fiji 0.4 Myanmar16.8 Nepal Palau Papua New Guinea Philippines 1.048.6 211.5 3.4 404 1.9 9.751 0.5 87 2.4 1.109 20 31 2 7.6 6 0.7 240 7 Jordan 2.5 16.7 21.1 8.93 Other Asia and islands 7.2 0.921 2.4 Egypt1.6 3.6 99 2.4 2.522 47 6.8 1 0.6 935 25.0 4.9 Iraq 0.6 1.0 0 0.7 46917. Rep.6 24.4 1.7 2.1 46.001 0.5 Indonesia 9.

3 16. 21.5 13.1 Burkina Faso 5.1 9 Sri 9.2 Africa 30.8 7.1 176 Ivory 14.9 8.9 Malawi 1.5 on Mon.8 1. Congo.8 Mozambique 14.4 Sudan 2.6 4.4 Timor-Leste 17.7 14.8 2 0.030 4.4 Coast 9.5 1.5 42 Rep.9 Madagascar 8.9 1.65 0.0 10.8 0.0 Benin 13.088 12.6 1.0.294 131.2 Number Seychelles Singapore 3.2 Ghana Guinea-Bissau 12.831 774 1.795 1 3 3.067 9.504 5.699 11.5 306 14.1 1.2 4.7 3 0.4 Congo.270 1.2 Vietnam Subtotal 5.907 17.1 43.8 348 Namibia 12.6 18.538 10.9 3.0 7.7 1.5 This content downloaded from 200. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .5 145 32.059 Comoros 7.0 0.792 16.8 Liberia 1.35010.663 12.7 32.0 Senegal 2.7 0.5 11. Dem.0 1.8 0.9 8.1 0.9 30.2 110 Burundi Cape Verde 2.7 Vanuatu 1.697 Mauritania 12.692 79.2 Niger 23.000) 1.1 0.2 1.5 940 Central African Chad 11.7 3.5 7.6 10.1 Nigeria 1.3 148 10.5 1.942 21.8 27.398 9.294 69.6 7 Rwanda 20.559 45.3 1.3 4.9 Kenya Lesotho 7.2 Solomon Islands 2.1 35 Lanka 7.2 34.194 10.3 4.846 4.0 23. Rep.9 27. Guinea Djibouti Equatorial 3.2 17.1 2.5 4.2 Republic 1.6 Eritrea Gabon Gambia Guinea Ethiopia20.7 Botswana 6.6 3.3 2.Appendix 1 (continued) Total group Rate homicides (2002) Mid-year population (millions) Regional (per and country Samoa 100.176.9 11.479 Somalia South 33.8 Tonga 0.5 114 9.4 19.682 1.0 61.0 1.0 525 Sao Tome and Principe Sierra Leone 50.6 19.2 545 53.6 146 Sub-Saharan Africa Angola39.1 1.7 7.483 19.750 1.8 Cameroon 10 23.129.1 0.1 4.7 Mali 8.350 176.0 27 59 0.4 Thailand 0.

3 398 10.265 SOURCES: Homicide rates (2002): World Health Organization (2004b).711 707. This content downloaded from 200.9 148.5 on Mon. Table 3.7 900 8.056 7.5 12.7 66 25 0. Kitts St.4 Panama 9.5 Cuba 5.8 Argentina 4.13 32 0.08561.291 6.3 184 3. The number of homicides in 2002 is calculated by ap plying the reported homicide rates for2002 to the reported mid-year population for 2002.Total Regional Swaziland group homicides (2002)_ Mid-year (millions) 1. World Development Indicators (online version).179.5 Colombia 72.0 37.453 4.0 15 0.4 0. and Dutch-speaking 10.4 11.Mid-year population (2002): World Bank.000) 6.299 58.8 4.2 0.7 Zimbabwe 11.2 2.2 El 921 9.3 0.6 4.7 and Portuguese-speaking Spanishof the Western Hemisphere countries 8.7 5.176.543 6015.2 countries 8 0. Lucia St.2 Jamaica St.3 Subtotal 21.467 26.915 2.2 Bolivia 87015.1 Bahamas Barbados Belize 21.0 346 8.4 37.370 10. Vincent Trinidad and Grenadines 8.98 English-.159 598 939 5.1 5.889 128.1 Costa Rica Republic 10.0 Tanzania 24.6 179.9 Peru 3.1 35.8 13.8 Zambia3.2 2.3 Dominican Ecuador 23.8 100.9 12 12 19 0.4 of the Caribbean and Barbuda French-.3 2973.2 15.6 4.6 6.133 264 596 11.491 43.449 12.1 Guatemala Honduras 13.38 1.4 World total (187 countries) 9.2 514.0.2 Subtotal 24.5 and Tobago 115 1.0 6.2 8.6 Venezuela35.9 0.3 5 0.0 31.1 73 0.0 4. Antigua 8666.3 8. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .4 Mexico 10.1 Suriname and Nevis 11.1 Salvador 38.6 Chile5.9 1.6 12.3 0.3 Subtotal 8.7 16.6 Uruguay5.5 Togo Uganda20.2 Nicaragua Paraguay 11.7 Brazil 32.9 Guyana Haiti 10.4 3.6 941 26.0 10.01 66 8.6 Dominica Grenada 9.6 Rate (per population and country Number 100.531 25.

thank Olufunmilayo in data processing.gov/ipc/www/idb) Urbanization level.. org/governance/wgi/index. Midyear Population.edu/ciddata/barrolee/Appendix. so-called i. Change Indicators (Online in urbanization. (2003) (2001) (dataset 2008" downloaded from http:// and Female www2. Table 3 Homicide Rates Around the World from data Proportion of males (15-29): Computed "Table 094.xls) World Governance Bank.cid. accuracy are often expressed about the and concerns of under-reporting degree is especially This statistics. of under-reporting varies country. "Governance Matters (http://info. South Papua analysis: Lesotho Senegal Malawi Malaysia Mali Slovakia Sierra Singapore Leone Mexico Slovenia Mozambique NepalSpain Netherlands New Zealand Sweden South Africa Sri Lanka Swaziland Nicaragua Switzerland Niger Thailand Norway Pakistan Panama Tunisia New Guinea Turkey Kingdom States ParaguayUganda Peru United United Philippines PolandUruguay Venezuela Portugal Romania Zambia Russian Rwanda Federation Zimbabwe Trinidad and Tobago Dominican El Salvador Notes The authors for help timated cause. issue here.harvard. version) Bank. Male linguistic. Literacy rates: World fractionalization: Infant mortality.772 APPENDIX Homicide 2 Data rates: WHO sources (2004b)." (violence).000 State. injuries Odushola self-defense. by Age and Sex. World Development (2001) Alesina and Lee Ethno-linguistic Ethnic. Roeder in Census Bureau. and religious heterogeneity: years of schooling: Indicator: World Barro et al. density. "Es by line as persons killed by police of law enforcement. W158. as well forces in the course 3.who.5 on Mon. International Data Base. Dec. To be sure.census.xls?. (www.0. homicide This content downloaded from 200." is therefore not an 3 Although coverage is quite another matter.int/healthinfo/ our "homicide" homicides. rates include in statistics/bodgbddeathdalyestimates. basic dataset deaths 100.176. killing justifiable cross-country comparisons. 1 The is from Table per and Member "Intentional population 2002 (a).e. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .worldbank.asp) Countries included in the regression Finland Algeria France Argentina Gambia Austria Bangladesh Germany Ghana Belgium Greece Benin BoliviaGuatemala Botswana Guinea-Bissau Brazil Guyana Haiti Bulgaria Cameroon Honduras Central African Republic Hungary India Chile China Indonesia Iran Colombia Costa Czech Republic Republic Rica Ireland Israel Croatia Italy Jamaica Denmark Japan Jordan Ecuador Kenya Egypt Korea. 2002" Gini Population index of income distribution. 2 Thus. in cause-of-death in problematic since the degree to from country is an extreme 2004 <<http://www.

9). For see Dreze and Khera 7 The OAI. Bahamas (21. the equality of the coefficients and CAR was for FSE. Angola (39. Guatemala (37. 14 Several gested Cole. 30-year.) 16 There might be some path-dependent in homicide rates in certain highly trajectories violent This might be due to "ha countries. Philippines (21.4). sence we actually dif indicators.) (21. Figures on male for 2000 were derived from data on and female schooling. This content downloaded from 200.5). with 34 per 100.000 their homicide (and were: Colombia (72. Ecua dor (23. Ghersi. Sierra Le population) one (50. was of these alternative measures significant es either. quality rates. these countries account for over half Although of all homicides in the world. Sudan (30. com/crime/homicides/map?ref=nyregion?. 10 The 2001) source for this for 1960 male for and index and reports values 11 The ing (Barro source and Lee (Roeder 1985 only.1). Brazil (32. school countries do sense) to find that less developed not generally show very low levels of reported homicide countries. or "desensitization": bituation" societies might to high homicide accustomed simply become rates (see Bandura 1973).3).176. 15 Note that three of these countries were were of these hypotheses sug by our colleagues.2). we Even would be if under-reporting caveat the norm expected in such female are obliged to state the the validity of regarding are only as good as the which data. OAI.3). Ivory Coast (27. where civil conflict began American countries. stability and ab For our purposes. South Africa (43. 6 This demographic almost merit their own India regional group China includes the two and India.1). the top six countries with the highest among rates in 2002. and 40-year changes).g. Central African Republic (23. 2000. online version) reports many for 2002. Nigeria (23. (20. Uganda and Rwanda (20. giants. Venezu countries ela (35. We to with different time horizons perimented measure in urbanization the change (e. earlier was than in other Latin the world's already top homicide-rate country as far back as 1960. 13 We with the experimented using logarithm of population density. right down on the New for instance. Tanzania (24. but this did not change also ex any of the results.5).1). Ethiopia (20.2).0). equality of the coefficients CAR was test.0).6).1). is fairly complete. regulatory voice and for this indicator of corruption. government and accountability. up to 2000. and calculated each country's as the simple average of the "total WGI six component indicators. 6 Jan 2014 10:20:28 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions .. Namibia (27. it is not surprising to find of homi that the same skewed distribution in any up within countries as well: some regions are much more given country than others. which as separate regions in a study of homicides in (2000). and since there is nothing special about the nation-state as a geographic unit. The and for FSE.0. total schooling source of the underlying 12 The 4 The cides has quality. measuring of quality of governance: effectiveness. 10 but none year. El Salvador (38. they contain only 16 percent of the world's population.000. Cole / Andres Marroquin Gramajo 773 situation than and could well be better other causes of death. Liberia (32. On the other hand.8). the interactive map York Times website ?http://projects. Guinea 5 In 2002 geographic a certain "fractal" reports six separate ferent dimensions control quality. have defined index" political of violence/terrorism. and Colombia homicide had by far the world's highest rate.8). is somewhat encouraging (though only in this registered but not enough could ever be com 8 Again. the 25 most homicide-prone rates per 100.4). This same pat homicide-prone cides shows tern recurs to the city level?see.Julio H.0).5 on Mon. tested using a Wald was test. Somalia (33. rule of law. which were so. including Joseph Marco Antonio del Rio.6).4).1). (Colombia. Russia (32. and Enrique (23. tested using a Wald of equal coefficients was not hypothesis rejected. Country coverage for values missing in contrast. Congo (Dem.8). source for this variable (WorldDevel 9 The of equal coefficients opment Indicators. distribution of homi five-year schooling average at 2001) reports values intervals. Wolfgang 1968: 490.nytimes. treatment right. The hypothesis not rejected. to assume reasonable that the quality of offi cial statistics level improves with a country's overall then it of socioeconomic development. and the resulting regressions were sentially the same.3). conventional our conclusions. to think that registration in countries with well-developed plete even if it is statistical systems.4).

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