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Problem Overview

Jan 7, 2010

Advanced Fuel Assembly Design Using Power Coast Down
EXCLUSIVELY FOR ALTAMETRIC CUSTOMERS

Antonio Anselmo (877-285-7873)

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Advanced Fuel Assembly Design and Fuel Usuage Plan Optimization Value Proposition: Using Reactor Coast Down and Stochastic Fuel Plan Optimization. Utilities Can Save the Value of 8 or More Full Power Days per Cycle Stage 1 No Coast Down No Fuel Plan Optimization Stage 2 Coast Down Being Studied No Fuel Plan Optimization Stage 3 Coast Down Implemented No Fuel Plan Optimization Stage 4 Coast Down Implemented Fuel Plan Optimization 51% of all domestic units ! 13% of all domestic units ! 30% of all domestic units ! 6% of all domestic units ! E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .

! Specify the gains and losses – outcomes to be enhanced or prevented. Estimate the frequency of each initiating event.! 3.Fuel Assembly Design and Burn for Favorable Outcomes Probabilistic Outcomes Gain Operating Risk Margin Risk Rate and Fuel Risk Probabilistic Outcomes Outage Risk Power Markets Revenue Risk Loss An Outline of the Fuel Plan Optimization Methodology: 1. E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .! 4. Identify each combination of events that lead to a specific outcome. Identify initiating events that could possibly lead to the specified consequences.! 2.

Each reload requires a unique fuel design and optimization.! Simple Benefit = Fuel Benefit from Coast Down – Replacement Power Costs. Real Case requires stochastic optimization of benefit and risk.! 2.Basic Coast Down Economics Economic Replacement Power Price Action Avoided Variable Fuel Costs Net Economic Benefit Replacement Power Cumulative Cost Spring 2012 Fall 2013 Unamortized Fuel Write Off Avoided Economic Loss Considerations for Optimal Fuel Planning: 1. E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .! 3.

Operations and Accounting.Optimizing Effective Full Power Days (EFPD) Constraints Contracts Fuel Designer ! Operations ! EFPDs Profit and Loss Fuel Manager ! Assembly Data Run Profile Amortization Accounting ! Fuel Value The Right Number of Full Power Days: The Altametric Value Proposition Planning for the optimal number of FPDs requires a thorough analysis that includes input from Fuel Management. E X!T!E!R!N!A!L . Fuel Design. using proprietary financial risk management techniques developed over 20 years. Altametric is uniquely capable of providing the correct fuel assembly plan.

E X!T!E!R!N!A!L . Currently. 69% of BWRs and 17% of PWRs use some type of “coast down” fuel plan.Power Profiles Comparing Fuel Plans Breaker to Breaker Operation Coast Down Operation Current Power Profiles: “Coast down” operation in comparison with “breaker to breaker” operation at 2 similar PWRs.

E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .Economic Replacement Power Costs and Avoided Variable Costs Minimizing Replacement Power Risk: The Impact of Market Risk The optimal fix-float coast down plan requires a peak price stochastic convolution against all run cycle full power. coast power and outage profiles.

Calculation Dependencies for 18 Month Power Cycle Optimization Assembly Price Risk = U3O8 + Conversion + Enrichment+ Fabrication+ Assembly Fixing the Length of Coast Down C1 in Spring 2012 Fixing the Outage Date D3 in Fall 2013 Result: Fuel Assembly Optimization Optimal Fuel Assembly Plan For Cycle D2 Outage Duration Stochasticity Market Hedges D3 Outage Duration Stochasticity Replacement Power Market Price Stochasticity E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .

E X!T!E!R!N!A!L . are stochastic. Conversion. Replacement Power. The optimal number of Full Power Days are a function of: U3O8 Prices. Fabrication. Internal Generation. Regulatory Constraints and Accounting Policy. C2 (varying between 80% and 100%).D3. The slack parameters are C1. Enrichment. Interest Rates. Outage Days.Fuel Assembly Optimization: Cycling with a Coast Down Plan T1 R1 D2 T2 R2 C2 C1 80% 90% Replacement Power Price Action D3 T3 R3 100% Spring 2012 Fall 2013 Cycle 1: T1 = C1 + D1 + R1 and Cycle 2: T2 = C2 + D2 + R2 where D2.

Benefits and Competitive Advantage Benefits: !! Savings of 8 or more effective full power days (EFPD) per cycle !! Greatly reduce chance of unamortized fuel write offs !! Economic replacement power kept below avoided variable costs !! The outage calendar can be optimized over 1 or 2 cycles !! Assembly design plan cost is allocated to fuel budget (Title 18) Competitive Advantages: "! Minimize replacement power costs against avoided variable costs "! Optimize fuel usage compared to previous cycles "! Buffer all outages with the flexible coast down "! Improve profitability for less than the cost 1/2 of an FTE E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .

Anselmo worked for 12 years at J. A.D. Dr.Sc. while avoiding catastrophe. he was a Scientist at Varian Associates for 4 years. from Cornell University. Prior to this.B. He holds M. we create growth. Morgan Chase.. Anselmo was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. He is an expert on economic and systems risk in the financial services and power utility sectors. M. We provide the most advanced risk definition. P. Dr. E X!T!E!R!N!A!L .About Altametric Altametric. The company primarily serves customer in the finance and energy sector. Adams Entrepreneur at Dartmouth and was awarded a Teagle Fellowship at Cornell. and Ph. LLC was started in 2005. From financial structuring to advanced system design. from the Amos Tuck School at Dartmouth College and a B.P. provenance and management services available. measurement. where he initiated and grew the Financial Engineering and Electronic Commerce groups in the Investment Bank.A. Eng.